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Bojo moving up in the next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com

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  • Black Friday appears to be (relatively) free if anyone's interested:

    Black Monday - 19 October 1987 Global stock market crash
    Black Tuesday - 29 October 1929 Wall Street Crash
    Black Wednesday - 16 September 1992 Sterling ERM crisis
    Black Thursday - 12 March 2020 Global Covid stock market crash

    Black Friday - 30 September 2022?

    I think we are doing Black Monday Redux.
  • "A weak currency arises from a weak economy, which in turn is the result of a weak government."

    https://www.adamsmith.org/blog/miscellaneous/quote-of-the-week-38
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,586
    Scott_xP said:

    We now realise that ‘ground’ was a typo for ‘pound’ https://twitter.com/DavidMuttering/status/1573436085723865093/photo/1

    Very good.

    Did she really say 'hit the ground from day one' rather than 'hit the ground running from day one'? Odd.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    Did she really say 'hit the ground from day one' rather than 'hit the ground running from day one'? Odd.

    Yes.

    She's an idiot
  • I think there must be a reasonable chance already of an early ouster of Truss and a coronation of Rishi.

    IMO, the selectorate will not put an Indian in No.10
    In spite of putting in several cowboys?
    Yes.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895
    I find that if you play the Ski Sunday theme tune every time you see one of these charts it lightens the mood somewhat https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1574307767212560386/photo/1
  • Pro_Rata said:

    I have been a Conservative foot-soldier for almost half a century. But today, I will be cancelling my membership. The Party of Liz Truss is not a Party I can remotely defend.

    How can you defend the biggest give away Budget in nearly half a century that benefits nobody earning under £100,000? Go sell that on the doorsteps. I can't. It is the dumbest of political stupidity.

    Truss was the worst of the candidates on offer. Not even Badenough proposed something as stupid as a Budget solely for the 100k-ers. And I am not remotely surprised about Kwarteng - from direct personal experience. The only hope for the Party is a brutally clinical removal of Truss by the MPs who knew she was duff. And thereby all of her Cabinet. Truss was brutal in not having supporters of anybody else. It will make it much easier to remove all of hers from having any future anywhere near decision making.

    When that happens, I will look at the party afresh. But let's not pretend this wasn't caused by the MPs. What was supposedly "the most sophisticated electorate on the planet" failed to predict that in putting Rishi forward, it would immediately result in the membership going for the other of two choices. My MP, a Rishi supporter, was rather put out when I explained this is what would happen. It is Tory MPs who gave us PM Truss. They must remedy it.

    Keep your membership, there'll be a leadership contest soon.

    I hope you're prepared to be denounced by HYUFD for being leftie from now on.
    I don't need my membership. There won't be a vote. There will be a coronation. The MPs have to take the running of the country away from the membership.
    Those effing MPs had one job. Decide on two acceptable candidates to put forward to the membership.

    They cannot palm all the blame off on the membership.

    They were not meant to play it as the bishop appointment episode of Yes. Minister.
    MPs did their best, but around thirty percent of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is hardcore nutter. That pretty much ensures they can get one of their own into the last round.
    Rishi did turn out to have enough spare votes to lend to make it a Rishi-Penny final, but not really enough to be sure of this in advance.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,050
    edited September 2022

    Remember when Osborne said we needed a Tory government to avoid becoming, economically, like Greece in 2010 ?

    Tbh, this is not a Conservative government in any reasonable sense of the word.

    The Tory Party has been taken over by the swivel-eyed loons.
    That's true, but we also shouldn't forget how much the idea that Labour had bequeathed a Greek-style situation in 2010 was propaganda, compared to the current situation.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    MaxPB said:

    As I said yesterday, if Rishi ever wants to be PM he'll bring the government down today with 38 rebels and be installed by a coronation in days. Liz Truss is leading the nation towards an IMF bailout so she can give people like me a giant tax cut.

    Isn't there a recess?
    Yep Parliament returns on October 11th. I can't see the Government recalling it so it's limbo for the next 2 weeks..
  • Two year gilts hit 4.5
  • eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    As I said yesterday, if Rishi ever wants to be PM he'll bring the government down today with 38 rebels and be installed by a coronation in days. Liz Truss is leading the nation towards an IMF bailout so she can give people like me a giant tax cut.

    Isn't there a recess?
    Yep Parliament returns on October 11th. I can't see the Government recalling it so it's limbo for the next 2 weeks..
    Don't think the 1922 can have a leadership ballot whilst parliament is not sitting. But happy to be corrected.

    Pretty sure he will have 56 letters by end of the week.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,993
    ping said:

    Bottomed out at $1.0335

    Now $1.05

    Serious volatility.


    ...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,503

    I have been a Conservative foot-soldier for almost half a century. But today, I will be cancelling my membership. The Party of Liz Truss is not a Party I can remotely defend.

    How can you defend the biggest give away Budget in nearly half a century that benefits nobody earning under £100,000? Go sell that on the doorsteps. I can't. It is the dumbest of political stupidity.

    Truss was the worst of the candidates on offer. Not even Badenough proposed something as stupid as a Budget solely for the 100k-ers. And I am not remotely surprised about Kwarteng - from direct personal experience. The only hope for the Party is a brutally clinical removal of Truss by the MPs who knew she was duff. And thereby all of her Cabinet. Truss was brutal in not having supporters of anybody else. It will make it much easier to remove all of hers from having any future anywhere near decision making.

    When that happens, I will look at the party afresh. But let's not pretend this wasn't caused by the MPs. What was supposedly "the most sophisticated electorate on the planet" failed to predict that in putting Rishi forward, it would immediately result in the membership going for the other of two choices. My MP, a Rishi supporter, was rather put out when I explained this is what would happen. It is Tory MPs who gave us PM Truss. They must remedy it.

    Sympathies - a difficult decision after decades of loyalty. How would you vote if there was an election tomorrow?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    I do have some sympathy for Sunak. I remember him getting quite irate at Truss for quoting some barmy economist who wanted 7% interest rates and that Truss plan would deliver that

    He was described as mansplaining, but I wonder if he was just so frustrated at the inevitable he lost his cool. He must be feeling vindicated. What a shame the membership were so ridiculous
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,401
    edited September 2022
    Just pint a few quid on Truss exit in 2022.

    At 26 on BF.

    Febrile times!!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,255
    eek said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    I have been a Conservative foot-soldier for almost half a century. But today, I will be cancelling my membership. The Party of Liz Truss is not a Party I can remotely defend.

    How can you defend the biggest give away Budget in nearly half a century that benefits nobody earning under £100,000? Go sell that on the doorsteps. I can't. It is the dumbest of political stupidity.

    Truss was the worst of the candidates on offer. Not even Badenough proposed something as stupid as a Budget solely for the 100k-ers. And I am not remotely surprised about Kwarteng - from direct personal experience. The only hope for the Party is a brutally clinical removal of Truss by the MPs who knew she was duff. And thereby all of her Cabinet. Truss was brutal in not having supporters of anybody else. It will make it much easier to remove all of hers from having any future anywhere near decision making.

    When that happens, I will look at the party afresh. But let's not pretend this wasn't caused by the MPs. What was supposedly "the most sophisticated electorate on the planet" failed to predict that in putting Rishi forward, it would immediately result in the membership going for the other of two choices. My MP, a Rishi supporter, was rather put out when I explained this is what would happen. It is Tory MPs who gave us PM Truss. They must remedy it.

    Keep your membership, there'll be a leadership contest soon.

    I hope you're prepared to be denounced by HYUFD for being leftie from now on.
    I don't need my membership. There won't be a vote. There will be a coronation. The MPs have to take the running of the country away from the membership.
    Those effing MPs had one job. Decide on two acceptable candidates to put forward to the membership.

    They cannot palm all the blame off on the membership.

    They were not meant to play it as the bishop appointment episode of Yes. Minister.
    The problem with that argument is that looking back I see

    1 decent candidate - Sunak
    3 crap ones who seem qualified - Truss / Hunt / Mordaunt

    And the others setting a pointer for future elections...

    Once Hunt was gone there really wasn't 2 acceptable candidates to put forward....

    Personally I wouldn't be blaming Tory MPs the lack of choices comes from Bozo being all the sane ones in his purge of October 2019...
    And they nominated those people and not others. For which case I'd add in Javid - some of the same instincts as Truss but would he be here today. And Tugendhat was possibly appropriate to send forward, but untested.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,700
    edited September 2022
    Mr. Borough, I did that yesterday. Got 45/1 on Truss' premiership not making it to 2023.

    Tiny stakes, mind.

    Edited extra bit: still 34 available on a 2022 Truss exit on Ladbrokes.
  • I think there must be a reasonable chance already of an early ouster of Truss and a coronation of Rishi.

    IMO, the selectorate will not put an Indian in No.10
    They nearly did already.

    One of the astonishing things about this fiasco is Truss’s utterly tenuous victory. Barely any Tory MPs supported her to begin with, and she won the membership with the narrowest margin since fuck knows when.
    It happened with John Major. No one ever expected him to be leader. He squeaked through the gap left whilst Hesletine and Hurd tore lumps out of each other. At the time you just needed a majority in the second round and he did not even achieve that, but he was so far ahead that the others withdrew
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507

    Black Friday appears to be (relatively) free if anyone's interested:

    Black Monday - 19 October 1987 Global stock market crash
    Black Tuesday - 29 October 1929 Wall Street Crash
    Black Wednesday - 16 September 1992 Sterling ERM crisis
    Black Thursday - 12 March 2020 Global Covid stock market crash

    Black Friday - 30 September 2022?

    I think we are doing Black Monday Redux.
    Is Meltdown Monday still available?
  • ping said:

    Bottomed out at $1.0335

    Now $1.05

    Serious volatility.


    ...
    Market is pausing awaiting BoE emergency action.

    If they don't get by say lunchtime then kaboom imho.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123
    Okay, PBers, how far does Truss get up the list of length of PM stints? She is currently ranked last on 20 days. She ties the Duke of Wellington (second stint, which, I know some might not consider a proper stint, but I think Betfair would have paid out!) on Wednesday. Can she make it all the way to January 2025?

    PM stint - Date on which Truss ties them for length of time in office

    Duke of Wellington (2) - 28/09/2022
    Marquess of Rockingham (2) - 11/12/2022
    George Canning - 02/01/2023
    Robert Peel (1) - 03/01/2023
    Viscount Melbourne (1) - 05/01/2023
    Viscount Goderich - 14/01/2023
    William Ewart Gladstone (3) - 22/02/2023
    Andrew Bonar Law - 03/04/2023
    Marquess of Salisbury (1) - 13/04/2023
    Duke of Devonshire - 19/04/2023
    Lord John Russell (2) - 04/05/2023
    Stanley Baldwin (1) - 09/05/2023
    Duke of Portland (1) - 24/05/2023
    Earl of Shelburne - 29/05/2023
    Benjamin Disraeli (1) - 11/06/2023
    Ramsay MacDonald (1) - 20/06/2023
    Earl of Derby (1) - 01/07/2023
    Earl of Bute - 20/07/2023
    Alec Douglas-Home - 04/09/2023
    Marquess of Rockingham (1) - 23/09/2023
    Lord Grenville - 18/10/2023
    Duke of Grafton - 21/12/2023
    Earl of Rosebery - 24/12/2023
    Earl of Derby (2) - 26/12/2023
    Earl of Wilmington - 20/01/2024
    William Ewart Gladstone (4) - 23/03/2024
    Earl of Derby (3) - 05/05/2024
    William Pitt the Younger (2) - 21/05/2024
    Anthony Eden - 11/06/2024
    Stanley Baldwin (3) - 27/08/2024
    Harold Wilson (2) - 08/10/2024
    Earl of Aberdeen - 17/10/2024
    William Pitt the Elder - 21/11/2024
    George Grenville - 30/11/2024
    Henry Campbell-Bannerman - 05/01/2025
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Stuck a reasonable amount on a 2022 election. I think the government might fall in the next couple of weeks. Too many Tory MPs aren't onboard for this and the consequences to the party of having the pound go under the dollar and a sovereign debt crisis is being out of power for 10-15 years.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm not sure Truss has the votes to get her budget through unless she changes tack.

    A small minority of MPs went for her, and she's appointed nothing but her friends to Government.

    It is an interesting exercise in seeing how far party loyalty can go.
    If we ignore the collateral damage.
    How does this compare with the early Thatcher experiment with monetarism? Didn’t she change tack pretty quickly then?

    It’s a shame that so many conclusions were drawn from Johnson’s ouster than the right one. That, politically, the problem was fundamentally Johnson himself, and by extension his style of Govt. Not actually his policies. Nothing in Johnson’s collapse in the polls and subsequent removal necessitated a complete 180 in Govt political philosophy and policy. The quote above about Truss abandoning a platform that brought a majority of 80 to pursue the seven libertarian voters in the country is telling.
    “How does this compare with the early Thatcher experiment with monetarism? Didn’t she change tack pretty quickly then?”

    We can argue what monetarism is, wether it allows redistribution like windfall taxes on energy companies and bankers (which Thatcher did in early eighties recession) or if it’s about squeezing money and cutting state just how much of true monetarism actually survived Thatchers party contact with government.

    We can look at KamaKwarzi economics as an economic ideology thing too - there we can argue all day and part disagreeing.

    But on the politics of this, surely there is no disagreement? the way they have gone about it, the lack of care they have taken to be thought of in the right way, and for their statements to carry authority and weight - sidelined the OBR, when clearly cutting income and switching to borrowing to pay the bills, told the world to expect more of the same, happy to be known by voters as caring more for the wealthy than the struggling in a crisis? It doesn’t make any electoral winning sense or credibility building sense. It’s the very opposite than how Thatchers government went about it.

    Saying Truss and Kwarteng are sleeper agents for political opponents is the only thing that explains how naively they have gone about it. It’s just weird/.
  • I think there must be a reasonable chance already of an early ouster of Truss and a coronation of Rishi.

    IMO, the selectorate will not put an Indian in No.10
    They nearly did already.

    One of the astonishing things about this fiasco is Truss’s utterly tenuous victory. Barely any Tory MPs supported her to begin with, and she won the membership with the narrowest margin since fuck knows when.
    It happened with John Major. No one ever expected him to be leader. He squeaked through the gap left whilst Hesletine and Hurd tore lumps out of each other. At the time you just needed a majority in the second round and he did not even achieve that, but he was so far ahead that the others withdrew
    and yet on the whole history has smiled on Major, apart from his indiscretions with Edwina despite presiding over Black Weds and the biggest defeat since 1945 he's now seen as a decent sort of Tory ex PM even the BBC seem to like him
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    Question

    When will the pound hit parity with the USD. Today, this week or next month?
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,720
    Every cloud has a silver lining. If we play our cards right the next few months should be boom time for foreign tourism in the UK.

    I've noticed already over the last couple of years that Europe and the US feel expensive for a British tourist. Catering and accommodation which used to be cheaper particularly in the US are now much more costly. UK restaurants in particular, even in London, seem pretty affordable if you're paid in Euros or Dollars.

    Oxford Street, Westfield, Bicester Village, Princes St and the Royal Mile are hopefully stocking up massively to deal with a surge in visiting Christmas shoppers.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Brexit’s going well then…

    This current shit show is brought to you by the people who brought you Brexit. Whose siren songs lured you into voting yourselves and your families poorer. Cynics who sing patriotism whilst shovelling more money into their offshore accounts. The real metropolitan elite.

    This is what the Brexiters want, this is a desirable part of the process. Our current woes will be used to entrench more inequality, a smaller, shabbier, privatised to fuck public realm. Shitter services, an ever poorer NHS. The end of the NHS, if they can. Slashing the rules and regulations - that dreadful, stifling red tape - that, in thousands of ways, large and small, make our lives better, cleaner, more pleasant and equitable. But which cost these rich men money, so they must be done away with. Only profit matters.

    The supremely rich men are happy that this is happening. They’ll be making money from it somehow, no doubt. They’re happy to watch us little people struggle and worry. It doesn’t bother them, it won’t hurt them. They are like scientists observing an experiment. They only care about themselves, not the UK or the people in it.

    Brexit has hollowed out the Tory Party and left you with a rump of lunatics in charge who will cheer on this shitshow. In decades to come we’ll look back at the six years that have brought us to this point - the churn of governments, PMs, ministers, the stupid decisions leading to more stupid decisions, the choice to leave the free market, Johnson’s futile (and now shamelessly abandoned) attempts to somehow make the whole flawed enterprise actually deliver on some of its empty promises, and they will think: What the actual fuck was the UK doing?

    But you voted for Brexit
    So did you pal. Never forget you voted for this shit.

    Many of us were much more sensible and voted for what would have been best for the country.
    And I am very happy that I voted Brexit. I am just pointing out the idiocy of Brexiteer @northern_monkey bemoaning Brexiteers
    Did Northern Monkey vote for Brexit? No doubt NM can confirm but I think your Brexit saved and unsaved spreadsheet may be a bit skew whiff.
  • ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Rewards for failure - part 387

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/firm-behind-post-office-scandal-28074668

    What could possibly go wrong with giving the IT firm responsible for the Post Office scandal - the biggest miscarriage of justice there has ever been - the contract to work on the Police National Computer?

    Probably nothing given the police currently barely bother to investigate crimes and when they do our courts are in such a mess it isn’t likely the case will come to trial.

    I’m starting to wonder which country I should emigrate to.
    I thought my dual citizenship would be useful after Brexit, but I am beginning to appreciate that it might be essential :open_mouth:
  • eek said:

    Question

    When will the pound hit parity with the USD. Today, this week or next month?

    Maybe never
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,889
    MaxPB said:

    Stuck a reasonable amount on a 2022 election. I think the government might fall in the next couple of weeks. Too many Tory MPs aren't onboard for this and the consequences to the party of having the pound go under the dollar and a sovereign debt crisis is being out of power for 10-15 years.

    Just pint a few quid on Truss exit in 2022.

    At 26 on BF.

    Febrile times!!

    You're all engaging in wishful thinking.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    I think there must be a reasonable chance already of an early ouster of Truss and a coronation of Rishi.

    IMO, the selectorate will not put an Indian in No.10
    They nearly did already.

    One of the astonishing things about this fiasco is Truss’s utterly tenuous victory. Barely any Tory MPs supported her to begin with, and she won the membership with the narrowest margin since fuck knows when.
    It happened with John Major. No one ever expected him to be leader. He squeaked through the gap left whilst Hesletine and Hurd tore lumps out of each other. At the time you just needed a majority in the second round and he did not even achieve that, but he was so far ahead that the others withdrew
    and yet on the whole history has smiled on Major, apart from his indiscretions with Edwina despite presiding over Black Weds and the biggest defeat since 1945 he's now seen as a decent sort of Tory ex PM even the BBC seem to like him
    Slightly wondering how much the general public knows about Truss's indiscretions with Kwarteng and if it doesn't, the effect when it finds out.
  • If my reading of the charts at http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ and https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/#all/wind is correct it appears that the grid passed up the opportunity to use several GW of wind energy last night by burning biomass instead. Seems a bit of a weird decision.

    I can understand wanting to keep a residual few GW of gas on the grid, so that frequency matching can be achieved, but the biomass burning seems strange.
  • I'd recommend the Apple Watch Ultra.

    Why?
    It's really good, and fantastic battery life, I charged it up to 100% on Friday lunchtime and it is 30% now.
    Are you a top underwater mountain runner, like in the Apple Ultra video?

    This is Apple Watch Ultra. Our most rugged and capable Apple Watch ever. Featuring a 49mm corrosion-resistant titanium case, multi-day battery life, three new specialized bands, a customizable Action button, precision dual-frequency GPS, innovative safety features like an 86-decibel siren and water resistant 100m. Apple Watch Ultra—a watch that pushes boundaries, so you can do the same.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy1adxM-CjM
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    TimS said:

    Every cloud has a silver lining. If we play our cards right the next few months should be boom time for foreign tourism in the UK.

    I've noticed already over the last couple of years that Europe and the US feel expensive for a British tourist. Catering and accommodation which used to be cheaper particularly in the US are now much more costly. UK restaurants in particular, even in London, seem pretty affordable if you're paid in Euros or Dollars.

    Oxford Street, Westfield, Bicester Village, Princes St and the Royal Mile are hopefully stocking up massively to deal with a surge in visiting Christmas shoppers.

    Bicester village are getting VAT free shopping back too. Although the number of Chinese tourists must be down 90%.
  • ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Rewards for failure - part 387

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/firm-behind-post-office-scandal-28074668

    What could possibly go wrong with giving the IT firm responsible for the Post Office scandal - the biggest miscarriage of justice there has ever been - the contract to work on the Police National Computer?

    Probably nothing given the police currently barely bother to investigate crimes and when they do our courts are in such a mess it isn’t likely the case will come to trial.

    I’m starting to wonder which country I should emigrate to.
    I thought my dual citizenship would be useful after Brexit, but I am beginning to appreciate that it might be essential :open_mouth:
    Unfortunately I only have an Irish great grandmother :(
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,412
    MaxPB said:

    As I said yesterday, if Rishi ever wants to be PM he'll bring the government down today with 38 rebels and be installed by a coronation in days. Liz Truss is leading the nation towards an IMF bailout so she can give people like me a giant tax cut.

    Whilst desirable can you imagine the shitstorm in the party and the mail etc.

    If you think the stab in the back noise was bad during the leadership election imagine what it will be like if that happens.

    Whilst the more moderate Sunakites are unlikely to be noisy troublemakers having lost to Truss I don’t think the same would be true with JRM/Dorries etc and they would have the mail and express backing them at full volume.

    Although it would be better for the country there are too many in the Tory party and backers of a wing that cannot see anything apart from ideology and purity (ironic given Truss’ background).

    So we can have the country screwed or a Tory civil war leading to electoral defeat anyway - personally I would rather Sunak steadying the ship then defeat than the country potentially burning but there you go.

    I have never in my life not wanted a Tory gov, even as a student in 97 I was anti-Labour but as there doesn’t really seem to be a Conservative govt around I wouldn’t, if I could vote, choose these ideologues.

    It feels like the leadership election was like a very fat sick person going to two doctors, one says the patient needs to go on a diet, start with gentle exercise and build towards a point where they can do triathalons in a couple of years.

    The other doctor says that if he take laxatives and runs ten miles a day he will be a world champion triathlete in six months.

    The patient’s stupid friend tells him to choose the quick laxative route and then he dies from a heart attack six weeks later.
  • eek said:

    Question

    When will the pound hit parity with the USD. Today, this week or next month?

    I wish I knew. Could probably make a few bob if I did. Seems like many on here would be surprised if it doesn't happen today. Most likely point would be when New York wakes up.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Rewards for failure - part 387

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/firm-behind-post-office-scandal-28074668

    What could possibly go wrong with giving the IT firm responsible for the Post Office scandal - the biggest miscarriage of justice there has ever been - the contract to work on the Police National Computer?

    Probably nothing given the police currently barely bother to investigate crimes and when they do our courts are in such a mess it isn’t likely the case will come to trial.

    I’m starting to wonder which country I should emigrate to.
    Look on the bright side. It's a brilliant time to be a criminal. We could put our heads together and form the most unlikely - but endearing - criminal duo. And @Leon could write about us as we spend our ill-gotten gains on the finest flints money can buy.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    Every cloud has a silver lining. If we play our cards right the next few months should be boom time for foreign tourism in the UK.

    I've noticed already over the last couple of years that Europe and the US feel expensive for a British tourist. Catering and accommodation which used to be cheaper particularly in the US are now much more costly. UK restaurants in particular, even in London, seem pretty affordable if you're paid in Euros or Dollars.

    Oxford Street, Westfield, Bicester Village, Princes St and the Royal Mile are hopefully stocking up massively to deal with a surge in visiting Christmas shoppers.

    Bicester village are getting VAT free shopping back too. Although the number of Chinese tourists must be down 90%.
    China's economic problems make ours look small beer. Biggest bubble in history evah.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,488
    Currently exporting 12% of the electricity we generate and importing almost none:

    https://gridwatch.co.uk

    EDF made noises about getting all the french nuclear back online by the winter: I wonder how it's going.
  • Scott_xP said:

    It was $/£ the purple line below at all time low since creation of US dollar by Alexander Hamilton in 1792… till WW2 5$ was more typical, post war $2ish, until reaching $1.05 in 1985, and bouncing back up to $2 in 2007. $1.51 before Brexit, and all time low of $1.03 this morning https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1574306147531636736/photo/1

    Five shillings was known as a dollar (or more commonly, half a crown was called half a dollar) pre-decimalisation, which implied four dollars to the pound.
  • Leon said:

    Brexit’s going well then…

    This current shit show is brought to you by the people who brought you Brexit. Whose siren songs lured you into voting yourselves and your families poorer. Cynics who sing patriotism whilst shovelling more money into their offshore accounts. The real metropolitan elite.

    This is what the Brexiters want, this is a desirable part of the process. Our current woes will be used to entrench more inequality, a smaller, shabbier, privatised to fuck public realm. Shitter services, an ever poorer NHS. The end of the NHS, if they can. Slashing the rules and regulations - that dreadful, stifling red tape - that, in thousands of ways, large and small, make our lives better, cleaner, more pleasant and equitable. But which cost these rich men money, so they must be done away with. Only profit matters.

    The supremely rich men are happy that this is happening. They’ll be making money from it somehow, no doubt. They’re happy to watch us little people struggle and worry. It doesn’t bother them, it won’t hurt them. They are like scientists observing an experiment. They only care about themselves, not the UK or the people in it.

    Brexit has hollowed out the Tory Party and left you with a rump of lunatics in charge who will cheer on this shitshow. In decades to come we’ll look back at the six years that have brought us to this point - the churn of governments, PMs, ministers, the stupid decisions leading to more stupid decisions, the choice to leave the free market, Johnson’s futile (and now shamelessly abandoned) attempts to somehow make the whole flawed enterprise actually deliver on some of its empty promises, and they will think: What the actual fuck was the UK doing?

    But you voted for Brexit
    Not me guv. You must be mistaking me for someone else.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    I'd recommend the Apple Watch Ultra.

    Why?
    It's really good, and fantastic battery life, I charged it up to 100% on Friday lunchtime and it is 30% now.
    Are you a top underwater mountain runner, like in the Apple Ultra video?

    This is Apple Watch Ultra. Our most rugged and capable Apple Watch ever. Featuring a 49mm corrosion-resistant titanium case, multi-day battery life, three new specialized bands, a customizable Action button, precision dual-frequency GPS, innovative safety features like an 86-decibel siren and water resistant 100m. Apple Watch Ultra—a watch that pushes boundaries, so you can do the same.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cy1adxM-CjM
    Why does TSE having a fancy watch the size of a small car not surprise me. I thought the 45mm version was big....

    Next he will be discussing the fact Hublot don't offer a Liverpool FC edition...
  • TimS said:

    Every cloud has a silver lining. If we play our cards right the next few months should be boom time for foreign tourism in the UK.

    I've noticed already over the last couple of years that Europe and the US feel expensive for a British tourist. Catering and accommodation which used to be cheaper particularly in the US are now much more costly. UK restaurants in particular, even in London, seem pretty affordable if you're paid in Euros or Dollars.

    Oxford Street, Westfield, Bicester Village, Princes St and the Royal Mile are hopefully stocking up massively to deal with a surge in visiting Christmas shoppers.

    what a shame that there's no staff to man the tills, clean the loos, wash the plates and make their beds... (or at least willing to do it for 9/10 quid an hour in the SE of England)
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    If my reading of the charts at http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ and https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/#all/wind is correct it appears that the grid passed up the opportunity to use several GW of wind energy last night by burning biomass instead. Seems a bit of a weird decision.

    I can understand wanting to keep a residual few GW of gas on the grid, so that frequency matching can be achieved, but the biomass burning seems strange.

    Think the biomass burning is 24/7 because of Drax's contracts....
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424
    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Rewards for failure - part 387

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/firm-behind-post-office-scandal-28074668

    What could possibly go wrong with giving the IT firm responsible for the Post Office scandal - the biggest miscarriage of justice there has ever been - the contract to work on the Police National Computer?

    Probably nothing given the police currently barely bother to investigate crimes and when they do our courts are in such a mess it isn’t likely the case will come to trial.

    I’m starting to wonder which country I should emigrate to.
    Look on the bright side. It's a brilliant time to be a criminal. We could put our heads together and form the most unlikely - but endearing - criminal duo. And @Leon could write about us as we spend our ill-gotten gains on the finest flints money can buy.
    I see the new IT system as an efficiency. Cut out the middle man, have the police doing the miscarriage of justice rather than someone else.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,889
    edited September 2022

    If my reading of the charts at http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ and https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/#all/wind is correct it appears that the grid passed up the opportunity to use several GW of wind energy last night by burning biomass instead. Seems a bit of a weird decision.

    I can understand wanting to keep a residual few GW of gas on the grid, so that frequency matching can be achieved, but the biomass burning seems strange.

    Which is correct ?

    http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ showing 13.70 GW of wind generation;
    https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/#all/wind showing 2.77 GW.
  • Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Rewards for failure - part 387

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/firm-behind-post-office-scandal-28074668

    What could possibly go wrong with giving the IT firm responsible for the Post Office scandal - the biggest miscarriage of justice there has ever been - the contract to work on the Police National Computer?

    Probably nothing given the police currently barely bother to investigate crimes and when they do our courts are in such a mess it isn’t likely the case will come to trial.

    I’m starting to wonder which country I should emigrate to.
    Look on the bright side. It's a brilliant time to be a criminal. We could put our heads together and form the most unlikely - but endearing - criminal duo. And @Leon could write about us as we spend our ill-gotten gains on the finest flints money can buy.
    Nowadays, criminality could be a career asset. Look at The Cabinet and their chums lining their pockets with shorted money, PPE scandals, Track&Trace, etc. Being a fool is also a career booster in Conservative politics
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353
    edited September 2022

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    Starmer is a dull and dutiful technocrat.

    His skill is not in policy-making or in vision-dreaming, but rather in a kind of stolid mediation or arbitration.

    We can already see that the Starmer years will be reasonably dull, and the far left will be disappointed, but the country will be fairer and more content.

    He and Labour need to make sure he is surrounded by a top-notch team, but I find the current Labour front bench the most impressive they’ve had since the Blair years.

    I think his campaign will be dull, vacuous and worthy, but he would have the skills to manage a coalition well. Something that Corbyn never could have done when he was way short of a majority in 2017. That gives Starmer quite the edge.

    On topic, I cannot see the Tories dumping Truss before a GE. For better or worse they are stuck with her. No comeback for Johnson, indeed likely to ignominiously lose his own seat at that GE.

    On topic of your on topic, all of a sudden I am not so sure - the herd have got a taste for moving, if Truss was hollowed out by awful polls, elections, scandals - for example as a betting site how many weeks do we think Fulbrook rides this situation before resigning - one more scandal on top and the herd will move, only this time no phase 2 members element. The bookies would make Wallace favourite once Truss is ousted, I agree with HY, if Truss goes Wallace with lead the Conservatives into the election - except for one doubt, he’s not that many weeks ago ruled himself out, why does that change?

    I would have it 50/50 Wallace or Truss leading Tories into next election. Just 2 weeks in and she would already lose a vonc. Six months of awful polling and she’s out.
    1. It is far too early to say Truss is a failure.
    2. Boris is not coming back.
    “ It is far too early to say Truss is a failure. ‘

    Too early to know the final score, but like a football team four down at half time and playing confused disjointed stuff, you can reasonably accurately predict how it ends up.

    Six months of dire polling, slipping into 20s, then to mid 20s, and Truss is voncked. Gone. Yeah. I think we can reasonably predict that already.

    Your second point. Fact is, If Boris had blagged himself into the contest like Corbyn had done when voncked, Boris would still be there is the truth of both the MPs picking top 2 and the membership vote that just happened. Instead of resigning he should have cut a deal as vonc winner to be allowed in contest. As Mike and the evidence in the header should educate you, Boris hasn’t gone away you know. Given a straight choice between Boris economics and Trump economics, the Tory Party would chose the former today let alone after six months of chaos and horrid polls.
    She has already chosen the arena she wants to fight in, 'growth', and unceremoniously hauled Starmer into it. I see she has also managed to get him to swallow most of Kwasi's mini-budget. This is within a week of politics proper. Let's delay the post mortem shall we?
    Starmer and Labour have been banging on about growth as the financial answer, as indeed have the last few Tory governments. It is the magic money tree that everyone wants to harvest but no one can find.

    No budget is instantly met with a policy to reverse it, not least because there needs to be time to understand its effects, and no one writes a budget 2 years into the future.

    So what you are saying is that (a) the tax policies of the last few years have failed to deliver growth; (b) therefore we should continue them
    What I’m saying is stop bogging this down in economics when it’s a politics discussion. They drowned out their own crisis help plan with a “reverse Robin Hood” budget. They needed to sell the world tricky change of cutting income to use borrowing to pay the bills, yet sidelined the OBR, offered markets no reassurances just threats of more of the same. In her first recession with households struggling Lady T windfall taxed bankers and energy companies, Truss did the opposite.

    The take out here isn’t the tackle the recession to hell with inflation economic strategy, it’s the naive, juvenile, arrogant way they are going about it.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Eabhal said:

    Cyclefree said:

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Rewards for failure - part 387

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/firm-behind-post-office-scandal-28074668

    What could possibly go wrong with giving the IT firm responsible for the Post Office scandal - the biggest miscarriage of justice there has ever been - the contract to work on the Police National Computer?

    Probably nothing given the police currently barely bother to investigate crimes and when they do our courts are in such a mess it isn’t likely the case will come to trial.

    I’m starting to wonder which country I should emigrate to.
    Look on the bright side. It's a brilliant time to be a criminal. We could put our heads together and form the most unlikely - but endearing - criminal duo. And @Leon could write about us as we spend our ill-gotten gains on the finest flints money can buy.
    I see the new IT system as an efficiency. Cut out the middle man, have the police doing the miscarriage of justice rather than someone else.
    In the Met they've gone one better. The officers are committing the crimes themselves.
  • eek said:

    Question

    When will the pound hit parity with the USD. Today, this week or next month?

    Maybe never
    The pound has been trending down against the USD for over a century. Its a question of when, not if, parity is reached surely.

    Maybe now. Will help exporters and cut imports, remember when we used to talk about our current account deficit?
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,424
    Does Truss make it to the Coronation? Does Charles? I sense a fun acca.
  • ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Rewards for failure - part 387

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/firm-behind-post-office-scandal-28074668

    What could possibly go wrong with giving the IT firm responsible for the Post Office scandal - the biggest miscarriage of justice there has ever been - the contract to work on the Police National Computer?

    Probably nothing given the police currently barely bother to investigate crimes and when they do our courts are in such a mess it isn’t likely the case will come to trial.

    I’m starting to wonder which country I should emigrate to.
    I thought my dual citizenship would be useful after Brexit, but I am beginning to appreciate that it might be essential :open_mouth:
    Unfortunately I only have an Irish great grandmother :(
    :(
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,993
    eek said:

    I have been a Conservative foot-soldier for almost half a century. But today, I will be cancelling my membership. The Party of Liz Truss is not a Party I can remotely defend.

    How can you defend the biggest give away Budget in nearly half a century that benefits nobody earning under £100,000? Go sell that on the doorsteps. I can't. It is the dumbest of political stupidity.

    Truss was the worst of the candidates on offer. Not even Badenough proposed something as stupid as a Budget solely for the 100k-ers. And I am not remotely surprised about Kwarteng - from direct personal experience. The only hope for the Party is a brutally clinical removal of Truss by the MPs who knew she was duff. And thereby all of her Cabinet. Truss was brutal in not having supporters of anybody else. It will make it much easier to remove all of hers from having any future anywhere near decision making.

    When that happens, I will look at the party afresh. But let's not pretend this wasn't caused by the MPs. What was supposedly "the most sophisticated electorate on the planet" failed to predict that in putting Rishi forward, it would immediately result in the membership going for the other of two choices. My MP, a Rishi supporter, was rather put out when I explained this is what would happen. It is Tory MPs who gave us PM Truss. They must remedy it.

    If the Budget had been for £100k-ers it wouldn't have been so bad because it would have made sense. Just go back to the cliff edge conversations from TSE / MaxPB / Foxy from Friday as people switch to a 4 day week rather than going beyond £100,000.

    This budget was for the 150k-ers and there are few of those and even those on here on or close it had sympathy for this scheme.

    For me on 1 level a hate it as it completely screws up a project I was working on, on the other level the reintroduction of old fashioned Ir35 is a great opportunity.
    The cynic in me says that because the big Tory donors often are in this category, it means they'll have more cash that they could donate, because the Tories are really gonna need a hell of an election warchest. And that this would have been on their minds.

    I hope that's just me being excessively cynical
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    edited September 2022
    MaxPB said:

    Stuck a reasonable amount on a 2022 election. I think the government might fall in the next couple of weeks. Too many Tory MPs aren't onboard for this and the consequences to the party of having the pound go under the dollar and a sovereign debt crisis is being out of power for 10-15 years.

    Is that where you put the present value of your likely tax bonus? You are perfectly hedged if so.
  • I do have some sympathy for Sunak. I remember him getting quite irate at Truss for quoting some barmy economist who wanted 7% interest rates and that Truss plan would deliver that

    He was described as mansplaining, but I wonder if he was just so frustrated at the inevitable he lost his cool. He must be feeling vindicated. What a shame the membership were so ridiculous

    1. The MPs wanted Sunak
    2. Sunak has been proven right
    3. We're in a once-in-a-generation crisis, and the PM imposed by members has spent her whole time in office baiting MPs

    A putch followed by a Sunak coronation is the obvious next play. Johnson is yesterday's man. Who needs a clown in a crisis? Whatever the odds are on Sunak as next PM, its worth a look as they will only shorten the more Truss and Kwarteng fuck this up.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    eek said:

    Question

    When will the pound hit parity with the USD. Today, this week or next month?

    Maybe never
    The pound has been trending down against the USD for over a century. Its a question of when, not if, parity is reached surely.

    Maybe now. Will help exporters and cut imports, remember when we used to talk about our current account deficit?
    It actually doesn't help exporters that much - the amount it helps exporters is directly related to the value added by the work done within the UK and for many exporters that may not be that much...

    Where it would be useful is if companies wished to move manufacturing to a low cost country - because the UK is now 10% cheaper than it was last week.

    Downside is those companies are really only temporary fixes as they will often move to the next country when things change...
  • alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm not sure Truss has the votes to get her budget through unless she changes tack.

    A small minority of MPs went for her, and she's appointed nothing but her friends to Government.

    It is an interesting exercise in seeing how far party loyalty can go.
    If we ignore the collateral damage.
    How does this compare with the early Thatcher experiment with monetarism? Didn’t she change tack pretty quickly then?

    It’s a shame that so many conclusions were drawn from Johnson’s ouster than the right one. That, politically, the problem was fundamentally Johnson himself, and by extension his style of Govt. Not actually his policies. Nothing in Johnson’s collapse in the polls and subsequent removal necessitated a complete 180 in Govt political philosophy and policy. The quote above about Truss abandoning a platform that brought a majority of 80 to pursue the seven libertarian voters in the country is telling.
    “How does this compare with the early Thatcher experiment with monetarism? Didn’t she change tack pretty quickly then?”

    We can argue what monetarism is, wether it allows redistribution like windfall taxes on energy companies and bankers (which Thatcher did in early eighties recession) or if it’s about squeezing money and cutting state just how much of true monetarism actually survived Thatchers party contact with government.

    We can look at KamaKwarzi economics as an economic ideology thing too - there we can argue all day and part disagreeing.

    But on the politics of this, surely there is no disagreement? the way they have gone about it, the lack of care they have taken to be thought of in the right way, and for their statements to carry authority and weight - sidelined the OBR, when clearly cutting income and switching to borrowing to pay the bills, told the world to expect more of the same, happy to be known by voters as caring more for the wealthy than the struggling in a crisis? It doesn’t make any electoral winning sense or credibility building sense. It’s the very opposite than how Thatchers government went about it.

    Saying Truss and Kwarteng are sleeper agents for political opponents is the only thing that explains how naively they have gone about it. It’s just weird/.
    Good morning

    What a mess and I agree entirely

    What on earth possessed them to think reducing the top rate of tax was a good idea when I think it was @MaxPB who said that that money should have gone into lifting the personal allowances

    We have a government who decided not to apply further windfall taxes, embark on fracking, reduce the top rate of tax and in the process not only dish public opinion, but more seriously spook the markets and as has been said seriously increase borrowing costs

    I did say it will either succeed or the conservatives will be out of office for a long time and it looks very much like the end of the conservative government at the next election

    I still have reservations about Strarmer and labour but then if they win office in 24 I will wish them well, and as the saying goes, a change is as good as a rest
  • So, decisions to be made (including by choosing to not make them) include the MPC changing rates, and the PCP either downing or sending an ultimatum to Truss. Again, I suspect not today, the MPs have been pretty slow when ousting both May and Johnson... but maybe they're in a mood to be more energetic.
  • Pulpstar said:

    If my reading of the charts at http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ and https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/#all/wind is correct it appears that the grid passed up the opportunity to use several GW of wind energy last night by burning biomass instead. Seems a bit of a weird decision.

    I can understand wanting to keep a residual few GW of gas on the grid, so that frequency matching can be achieved, but the biomass burning seems strange.

    Which is correct ?

    http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ showing 13.70 GW of wind generation;
    https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/#all/wind showing 2.77 GW.
    The second one is for the island of Ireland grid, but I include it because it shows the forecast wind energy. The forecast is pretty good most of the time, so you can use it to identify times when the grid can't use all the wind energy that is available.

    Looking at the shape of the wind energy on the British grid overnight, it looks like it follows a similar pattern of being demand-limited rather than supply-limited.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,177
    Pulpstar said:

    If my reading of the charts at http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ and https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/#all/wind is correct it appears that the grid passed up the opportunity to use several GW of wind energy last night by burning biomass instead. Seems a bit of a weird decision.

    I can understand wanting to keep a residual few GW of gas on the grid, so that frequency matching can be achieved, but the biomass burning seems strange.

    Which is correct ?

    http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk/ showing 13.70 GW of wind generation;
    https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/#all/wind showing 2.77 GW.
    I know we are all currently in a doom spiral, but looking at that we are generating over 40% of our electricity from windmills AND exporting to the continent at the same time. We talk about net zero, and it will be tough for sure, but I think if you had said in 2000 we would be having so much from wind, people would not have believed it.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269

    Cyclefree said:

    Rewards for failure - part 387

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/firm-behind-post-office-scandal-28074668

    What could possibly go wrong with giving the IT firm responsible for the Post Office scandal - the biggest miscarriage of justice there has ever been - the contract to work on the Police National Computer?

    As you suggesting Fujitsu - who bear responsibility for the IT failure but not the scandal - should never get another contract from the government?

    Yes. They weren't just incompetent. They also lied about what they had done when the matter was under investigation thus making the scandal very much worse. Some of their executives are under investigation for possible perversion of the course of justice.

    NFW should they have been allowed to bid.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    This thread has been devalued.
  • eek said:

    Question

    When will the pound hit parity with the USD. Today, this week or next month?

    This afternoon if nothing is done to reassure the markets.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    tlg86 said:

    There are no good options for the Tories from here. The only question now is, can Labour win an overall majority? I think they can, even without a big recovery in Scotland.

    Yeah, it's certainly feasible.

    It's early days, but future historians may have to look at which party self-defeated the most: Labour under Corbyn, or the Conservatives under Truss and the latter days of Johnson (who was riding high in the polls until two years ago).

    I'd argue the Conservatives have it worst, as they're doing this sh*t whilst they are in power. Labour at least had their lunacy in opposition.
    Just imagine the coverage if the pound and gilts had performed as they have since Friday morning after a Labour budget in which billions more had been borrowed to fund better public services and infrastructure.

    We are on the way to world leading economy, claims PM Starmer.
    You ain’t seen nothing yet, promises new Chancellor Reeves.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,077

    New Thread

  • eek said:

    Unpopular said:

    Could all the newfound converts to exchange rate targeting tell us which dollar exchange rate the government should aim for and why?

    As someone who was on Holiday in the US in the summer, and quite liked it, I'd prefer £2 to the dollar. Don't know what the economic implications of that are, but since it's not happening it doesn't matter anyway.
    You may want to check your maths there as you've just made £1 worth half what it currently is which makes the US twice as expensive as it was when you last visited it.

    For reference that would make an iphone 14 £1600 rather than the £800 it currently is...
    Why do people *need* the latest iPhone?
    Because it keeps Mrs j in a job. ;)

    (As does buying other makes of phones does ...)

    But it's actually a good question. The latest phones - whether from Apple, Samsung or a.n.other - have a massive price premium, and people are not buying them for the features, however much they kid themselves they are. They are a status symbol. Just like buying a Porsche or Ferrari.

    Yet those features mostly trickle down to cheaper phones that will be available in a year or two. I currently have a Samsung A13, and it does everything I need it to - with the advantage of knowing that if I drop it whilst out on a walk or run, I won't have lost more than a thousand quid. Yet it did not get stellar reviews, but it's perfect for what I need (not *want*)

    Oh, and I'm constantly amazed by the number of people who do not out cases on their phones, and how many of those have scratched, grazed or smashed screens. And how many of those people are struggling financially.

    Get a case, people.
    @ydoethur would never have missed that opportunity

    It should have been “get ON the case, people”
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited September 2022
    Given the amount of blatant "incompetence" (and I am being kind using that word!!) over PPE scandals, Track&Trace, the current budget, etc. does anyone think that the top echelons of this administration and Boris's administration should be investigated for corruption?

    I understand that the smarter chancers make money from opportunities and both administrations have made plenty of gaffs, but a lot of the opportunists seem to very close to senior politicians.

    It is hard to believe that there has not been some form of collusion. If there was not corruption on a vast scale, then there was incompetence of unbelievable proportions.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,895

    But on the politics of this, surely there is no disagreement? the way they have gone about it, the lack of care they have taken to be thought of in the right way, and for their statements to carry authority and weight - sidelined the OBR, when clearly cutting income and switching to borrowing to pay the bills, told the world to expect more of the same, happy to be known by voters as caring more for the wealthy than the struggling in a crisis? It doesn’t make any electoral winning sense or credibility building sense. It’s the very opposite than how Thatchers government went about it.

    Saying Truss and Kwarteng are sleeper agents for political opponents is the only thing that explains how naively they have gone about it. It’s just weird/.

    The politics are part of the plan.

    It's meant to be unpopular.

    "If it's not hurting, it's not working..."
  • eek said:

    eek said:

    Question

    When will the pound hit parity with the USD. Today, this week or next month?

    Maybe never
    The pound has been trending down against the USD for over a century. Its a question of when, not if, parity is reached surely.

    Maybe now. Will help exporters and cut imports, remember when we used to talk about our current account deficit?
    It actually doesn't help exporters that much - the amount it helps exporters is directly related to the value added by the work done within the UK and for many exporters that may not be that much...

    Where it would be useful is if companies wished to move manufacturing to a low cost country - because the UK is now 10% cheaper than it was last week.

    Downside is those companies are really only temporary fixes as they will often move to the next country when things change...
    It aids more than just manufacturing. Anyone working in services that prices in dollars will be earning more now than last week from those exports, or able to tender more competitively to earn the same amount.

    It seems some people never want our current account deficit to be addressed.
  • eek said:

    Question

    When will the pound hit parity with the USD. Today, this week or next month?

    Maybe never
    The pound has been trending down against the USD for over a century. Its a question of when, not if, parity is reached surely.

    Maybe now. Will help exporters and cut imports, remember when we used to talk about our current account deficit?
    It's been trending down for over a century, not because that is a reflection of a law of nature, but because the British economy has been in relative decline over that period.

    If a British government is ever successful in making the British economy stronger then we would expect to see a stronger pound as a result.

    We need to boost British exports by investing in productivity and innovation, not by beggaring ourselves with yet another devaluation. Devaluation simply leads us to get poorer and poorer.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,353

    The pound has not just fallen against the dollar. It’s down against almost all major currencies.

    Down By much though against the € yo-yo and the evil ruble?

    Is there an argument the strength of the dollar causes problems for the US?
  • Black Friday appears to be (relatively) free if anyone's interested:

    Black Monday - 19 October 1987 Global stock market crash
    Black Tuesday - 29 October 1929 Wall Street Crash
    Black Wednesday - 16 September 1992 Sterling ERM crisis
    Black Thursday - 12 March 2020 Global Covid stock market crash

    Black Friday - 30 September 2022?

    Isn’t that the day after thanksgiving?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,269
    eek said:

    The assumption is now that the BOE will act - if they don't then the slide will resume. If they do then that will cause different problems. The Govt is powerless on all this now. All they can do is close their eyes, shut their ears and cross their fingers.

    I don't think the BoE can act - the next meeting is in 5 weeks time and the BoE remit is inflation I don't think it has any remit regarding exchange rates...
    Er ..... a weak pound has quite an effect on inflation.
  • alex_ said:

    Nigelb said:

    I'm not sure Truss has the votes to get her budget through unless she changes tack.

    A small minority of MPs went for her, and she's appointed nothing but her friends to Government.

    It is an interesting exercise in seeing how far party loyalty can go.
    If we ignore the collateral damage.
    How does this compare with the early Thatcher experiment with monetarism? Didn’t she change tack pretty quickly then?

    It’s a shame that so many conclusions were drawn from Johnson’s ouster than the right one. That, politically, the problem was fundamentally Johnson himself, and by extension his style of Govt. Not actually his policies. Nothing in Johnson’s collapse in the polls and subsequent removal necessitated a complete 180 in Govt political philosophy and policy. The quote above about Truss abandoning a platform that brought a majority of 80 to pursue the seven libertarian voters in the country is telling.
    “How does this compare with the early Thatcher experiment with monetarism? Didn’t she change tack pretty quickly then?”

    We can argue what monetarism is, wether it allows redistribution like windfall taxes on energy companies and bankers (which Thatcher did in early eighties recession) or if it’s about squeezing money and cutting state just how much of true monetarism actually survived Thatchers party contact with government.

    We can look at KamaKwarzi economics as an economic ideology thing too - there we can argue all day and part disagreeing.

    But on the politics of this, surely there is no disagreement? the way they have gone about it, the lack of care they have taken to be thought of in the right way, and for their statements to carry authority and weight - sidelined the OBR, when clearly cutting income and switching to borrowing to pay the bills, told the world to expect more of the same, happy to be known by voters as caring more for the wealthy than the struggling in a crisis? It doesn’t make any electoral winning sense or credibility building sense. It’s the very opposite than how Thatchers government went about it.

    Saying Truss and Kwarteng are sleeper agents for political opponents is the only thing that explains how naively they have gone about it. It’s just weird/.
    Good morning

    What a mess and I agree entirely

    What on earth possessed them to think reducing the top rate of tax was a good idea when I think it was @MaxPB who said that that money should have gone into lifting the personal allowances

    We have a government who decided not to apply further windfall taxes, embark on fracking, reduce the top rate of tax and in the process not only dish public opinion, but more seriously spook the markets and as has been said seriously increase borrowing costs

    I did say it will either succeed or the conservatives will be out of office for a long time and it looks very much like the end of the conservative government at the next election

    I still have reservations about Strarmer and labour but then if they win office in 24 I will wish them well, and as the saying goes, a change is as good as a rest
    Morning Big_G. I fear that debates about the next election are way off into the distance when we have an egregious crisis now. This is no longer about party political manoeuvrings. This is about a very real crisis to our economy right now. Your government is saying not only "this is fine" but "we don't comment on markets". It isn't fine, and unless they do comment it will continue not to be fine.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    I have been a Conservative foot-soldier for almost half a century. But today, I will be cancelling my membership. The Party of Liz Truss is not a Party I can remotely defend.

    How can you defend the biggest give away Budget in nearly half a century that benefits nobody earning under £100,000? Go sell that on the doorsteps. I can't. It is the dumbest of political stupidity.

    Truss was the worst of the candidates on offer. Not even Badenough proposed something as stupid as a Budget solely for the 100k-ers. And I am not remotely surprised about Kwarteng - from direct personal experience. The only hope for the Party is a brutally clinical removal of Truss by the MPs who knew she was duff. And thereby all of her Cabinet. Truss was brutal in not having supporters of anybody else. It will make it much easier to remove all of hers from having any future anywhere near decision making.

    When that happens, I will look at the party afresh. But let's not pretend this wasn't caused by the MPs. What was supposedly "the most sophisticated electorate on the planet" failed to predict that in putting Rishi forward, it would immediately result in the membership going for the other of two choices. My MP, a Rishi supporter, was rather put out when I explained this is what would happen. It is Tory MPs who gave us PM Truss. They must remedy it.

    I know that you were pro-Brexit but do you see any connection to the current state of the party and its take over by the Brexiteers? Isn't this exactly the sort of government that the right-wing Tory Brexiteers were angling for all along? Singapore-on-Thames

  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Cyclefree said:

    eek said:

    The assumption is now that the BOE will act - if they don't then the slide will resume. If they do then that will cause different problems. The Govt is powerless on all this now. All they can do is close their eyes, shut their ears and cross their fingers.

    I don't think the BoE can act - the next meeting is in 5 weeks time and the BoE remit is inflation I don't think it has any remit regarding exchange rates...
    Er ..... a weak pound has quite an effect on inflation.
    It is not really about interest rates now, but rather a fundamental collapse of confidence. I was in the gilt market in 1992 - Black Wedneday. Rates went 10%, 12%, 15%, 12% in just one day. Sterling will just have to find its own level. Action needs tobe political, and that is in the hands of Conservative MPs.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,551

    Just pint a few quid on Truss exit in 2022.

    At 26 on BF.

    Febrile times!!

    Ditto at 32
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    carnforth said:

    TimS said:

    Every cloud has a silver lining. If we play our cards right the next few months should be boom time for foreign tourism in the UK.

    I've noticed already over the last couple of years that Europe and the US feel expensive for a British tourist. Catering and accommodation which used to be cheaper particularly in the US are now much more costly. UK restaurants in particular, even in London, seem pretty affordable if you're paid in Euros or Dollars.

    Oxford Street, Westfield, Bicester Village, Princes St and the Royal Mile are hopefully stocking up massively to deal with a surge in visiting Christmas shoppers.

    Bicester village are getting VAT free shopping back too. Although the number of Chinese tourists must be down 90%.
    On the other hand a huge amount of the disposable income in this country rests with the retired and if my experience of friends and acquaintances is anything to go by they will be hanging onto to their savings like grim death whilst the spectre of inflation stalks the country.

    Caution due to current inflation rates have personally led me to shelve a number of spending plans for the next 12 months.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    I do have some sympathy for Sunak. I remember him getting quite irate at Truss for quoting some barmy economist who wanted 7% interest rates and that Truss plan would deliver that

    He was described as mansplaining, but I wonder if he was just so frustrated at the inevitable he lost his cool. He must be feeling vindicated. What a shame the membership were so ridiculous

    That was a ridiculous and unfair criticism.
    How is it 'mansplaining' to air genuine arguments over policy ? Or is it just unfair that he was right ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Stuck a reasonable amount on a 2022 election. I think the government might fall in the next couple of weeks. Too many Tory MPs aren't onboard for this and the consequences to the party of having the pound go under the dollar and a sovereign debt crisis is being out of power for 10-15 years.

    Just pint a few quid on Truss exit in 2022.

    At 26 on BF.

    Febrile times!!

    You're all engaging in wishful thinking.
    Just following the Chancellor's lead.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,513

    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Rewards for failure - part 387

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/firm-behind-post-office-scandal-28074668

    What could possibly go wrong with giving the IT firm responsible for the Post Office scandal - the biggest miscarriage of justice there has ever been - the contract to work on the Police National Computer?

    Probably nothing given the police currently barely bother to investigate crimes and when they do our courts are in such a mess it isn’t likely the case will come to trial.

    I’m starting to wonder which country I should emigrate to.
    I thought my dual citizenship would be useful after Brexit, but I am beginning to appreciate that it might be essential :open_mouth:
    Unfortunately I only have an Irish great grandmother :(
    Recently discovered that my wife's great grandfather was tailor to the Tzar (or at least claimed to be), but that doesn't help, either.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    Black Friday appears to be (relatively) free if anyone's interested:

    Black Monday - 19 October 1987 Global stock market crash
    Black Tuesday - 29 October 1929 Wall Street Crash
    Black Wednesday - 16 September 1992 Sterling ERM crisis
    Black Thursday - 12 March 2020 Global Covid stock market crash

    Black Friday - 30 September 2022?

    I think we are doing Black Monday Redux.
    I share many of the concerns expressed about Kemi-Kwasi’s policy but bear in mind that AEP has an article in the Telegraph today saying it’s a “reckless gamble”.

    So it must have something going for it.
  • Black Friday appears to be (relatively) free if anyone's interested:

    Black Monday - 19 October 1987 Global stock market crash
    Black Tuesday - 29 October 1929 Wall Street Crash
    Black Wednesday - 16 September 1992 Sterling ERM crisis
    Black Thursday - 12 March 2020 Global Covid stock market crash

    Black Friday - 30 September 2022?

    Isn’t that the day after thanksgiving?
    Steely Dan says hello?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    The City is expecting Bailey to make a statement after market close today, I wonder what happens if he doesn't and then doesn't by the end of the week. It could be parity by Friday.
  • ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Rewards for failure - part 387

    https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/firm-behind-post-office-scandal-28074668

    What could possibly go wrong with giving the IT firm responsible for the Post Office scandal - the biggest miscarriage of justice there has ever been - the contract to work on the Police National Computer?

    Probably nothing given the police currently barely bother to investigate crimes and when they do our courts are in such a mess it isn’t likely the case will come to trial.

    I’m starting to wonder which country I should emigrate to.
    I thought my dual citizenship would be useful after Brexit, but I am beginning to appreciate that it might be essential :open_mouth:
    Unfortunately I only have an Irish great grandmother :(
    There are Irish legal companies which have managed to get Irish Citizenship for someone at that remove. Sadly I am one generation behind you, so no chance :-)
This discussion has been closed.