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LizT compared with others who’ve became PM mid-parliament – politicalbetting.com

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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,547
    The population of Tuapse is 63,000 people. 75.2% of the population are Russians, 8.5% are Armenians.

    A mobilization list of the Tuapse region is being circulated on social networks, from which it follows that about 90% of those drafted are Armenians.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/K_Agop/status/1572870545036972032
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    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,191

    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    Quite. The C of E has been the ideological arm of the English State since 1530-wotsit. Yet it's not implementing the state directives about gay marriage. What's the point of an ideological arm if it goes its own way?
    You haven't encountered the DfE, the Treasury etc? They all have institutional policies that having nothing to do with what the government wants. Indeed, they often justify this by saying they are implementing "proper government".

    During COVID, on occasion, ministers said do X. Sometimes, the civil servants did Y. The direct opposite of written instructions.

    Apparently, the civil servants involved are appalled that at the coming enquiries, ministers will not take responsibility for their departments doing Y and will instead produce the written instructions to do X.
    If I am forced to choose between watching Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb or Susan Acland-Hood and Amanda Spielman get it for incompetence, dishonesty, law breaking and damaging schools...

    ...I think I might actually suffer an implosion event.
    Why can't they all lose?
    *Dreamy smile crosses face*

    *followed by a frown as he realises that just won't happen, these fuckers will protect their mates*

    Why can't @Cyclefree be in charge? Somebody who would ask intelligent questions, not be put off by evasive answers and seriously kick ass.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,986
    edited September 2022
    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    At the moment only a minority of Christian denominations allow homosexual marriage, Lutherans, Methodists and some branches of the Anglican communion like the US Episcopal Church she was a member of. Personally I would each individual priest to make up their own mind on whether to allow it or not in the Church of England but we are not there yet.

    Of course Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis do not perform gay marriages either
    As an atheist I feel this is none of my business and I respect your position and the position of other sects to decide what they like. However there is an issue with the CofE being the established church which is a conflict of interest.
    As I said I do not oppose gay marriage in the Church of England but would leave it up to each parish and diocese to decide whether to do them or not.

    Most I expect would now, only a few mainly evangelical churches wouldn't
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    AlistairM said:

    Nigelb said:

    Dynamo seems to be expressing a similar frustration that no one is appreciating Putin's brilliant move in pretendy-declaring bits of Ukraine part of Russia.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1573107219633438721
    There was palpable frustration in the Russian media that many in the West misunderstood what Putin said⁠—he was threatening the West, not Ukraine, with nuclear strikes. And so, droves of propagandists have been sent out to tell the West: push us into a corner and everybody dies.

    An interesting clip. It rather highlights the importance of language - what is said, and what is heard.

    The presenter kept saying we want to "defeat Russia" and I have heard people very strongly say so on here. What does that mean? Defeat them with regards to their invasion of Ukraine? Yes, most of the west wants that. But that isn't the "defeat Russia" she talks of where the state - or at least the Putin version of the state - is militarily defeated in a general war. Very few are proposing NATO cross the Polish and Romanian borders and start invading the Rodina.

    So yes, we heard the threat about nukes. We already understand that. But we also understand the nuance here. "Destroy Russia" and we will also be destroyed. That has been reality since the mid 1960s. We aren't proposing that - and going off the Russian stuff I have seen, neither have they.

    To quote Spike in Buffy the Vampire Slayer:
    "We like to talk big, vampires do. "I'm going to destroy the world." It's just tough-guy talk. Struttin' around with your friends over a pint of blood. The truth is, I *like* this world. You've got... dog racing, Manchester United... and you've got people. Billions of people walking around like Happy Meals with legs. It's all right here... But then, someone comes along with a vision. With a real... passion for destruction... Goodbye Piccadilly, farewell Leicester bloody Square. You know what I'm saying?"
    Serious kudos for the very relevant quote from BTVS.
    I will out-geek anyone on here. And yes, I accept that is a serious challenge I may very well lose. Would be fun though...
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    Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.
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    Nigelb said:

    The population of Tuapse is 63,000 people. 75.2% of the population are Russians, 8.5% are Armenians.

    A mobilization list of the Tuapse region is being circulated on social networks, from which it follows that about 90% of those drafted are Armenians.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/K_Agop/status/1572870545036972032

    Is Putin even trying to defeat Ukraine anymore, or just them to wipe out his minorities?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,885
    edited September 2022

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.

    A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.

    The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.

    Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?

    But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good
    He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.

    He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.

    And there is more to come.

    Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning
    FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.

    Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.
    One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.
    Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?
    Not downplayed, just put into perspective. The concern amongst the military apparently is that politicians will see the use of battlefield nukes as being indicative of the Russians being willing to use the ICBMs so they are keen to ensure it is clear to politicians that there is a big distinction in Russian minds between the use of tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals. They are not trying to limit the western response, just put the Russian use into context.
    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...
    Not really. That is exactly the point. There are many non nuclear options. Russian use of battlefield nukes could be met with active NATO participation in Ukraine for example.
    Indeed so. It would be relatively easy for a NATO operation to target the Black Sea Fleet, and Russian air defences inside Ukraine, followed by extensive bombing of every railway line half a mile inside the Russia/Ukraine border. The Russians can’t operate without railways, and would have little choice but to withdraw from Ukraine or be cut off.

    For bonus points, give them a fortnight’s notice of the Kerch Bridge being destroyed, and watch all the Russians leave Crimea almost immediately.
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    Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

    EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

    This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    And in the unlikely event that we give in to the threat of 'give us what we want or well incinerate the planet', then what about next time.
    And the time after. And the time after that.

    Worked for FDR against Japan.
    Truman surely?
    Truman had the capacity to incinerate the planet ?
    News to me.
    At 20-40Kt, 6-8 times a month... it would take a while.
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    Interesting that the Special Fiscal Event is so early today. Means that there is more time for the details to be analysed before the evening news and tomorrow's headlines.

    We're on the fourth iteration of the long Conservative government. May ditched the Cameroons, Johnson nuked the Mayites and what was left of the one nation types, Truss fired anyone who was insufficiently enthusiastic about Truss.

    All fair in love, war and politics, sure. But the practical outcome is that this government has had to be made of the D squad. And whilst the D squad of a top team will be better than a bunch of amateurs, they are in the D squad for a reason.

    Not all of them are going to be good enough at politics to cope with what's incoming.
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    eekeek Posts: 24,969

    Interesting that the Special Fiscal Event is so early today. Means that there is more time for the details to be analysed before the evening news and tomorrow's headlines.

    We're on the fourth iteration of the long Conservative government. May ditched the Cameroons, Johnson nuked the Mayites and what was left of the one nation types, Truss fired anyone who was insufficiently enthusiastic about Truss.

    All fair in love, war and politics, sure. But the practical outcome is that this government has had to be made of the D squad. And whilst the D squad of a top team will be better than a bunch of amateurs, they are in the D squad for a reason.

    Not all of them are going to be good enough at politics to cope with what's incoming.
    I suspect the D squad of this team aren't much better than a bunch of amateurs. Remember the selection criteria wasn't can you run a Government Department it was do we like you and do we think you could win this seat at the next election...
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 32,898

    Not all of them are going to be good enough at politics to cope with what's incoming.

    Exhibit A. Radio 4 this morning...
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    This thread has been downvoted by the Bank of England MPC
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    MattWMattW Posts: 18,501
    edited September 2022

    Kwarteng on his feet and goes directly into the energy crisis.

    EDIT - oh dear, he has described insane £2,500 a year energy bills as "a considerable saving". Which is absolutely isn't, it is cementing into place a price which has doubled vs last winter.

    This is the Tories problem. Saying something counter-factual to people's reality. Then sneering at them.
    He's applying normal political argument standards.

    Comparing what has happened with a modelled projection, and calling it a real difference.

    (Is the bloke a Remainer :smile: ?)

    Whether it is perceived as a real saving will be interesting. My take is that the issue is significantly neutralised in the short to shortish term, but that there is a UXB attached, with an indeterminate time fuse. And that the lumpen media are going to have to find something else with which to scare their readers.

    I note that La Truss's 2 year freeze extends to within 3 months of the latest possible date for the next election.

    On which basis I forecast the 2024 election to be September 2024 or earlier.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,621
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    At the moment only a minority of Christian denominations allow homosexual marriage, Lutherans, Methodists and some branches of the Anglican communion like the US Episcopal Church she was a member of. Personally I would each individual priest to make up their own mind on whether to allow it or not in the Church of England but we are not there yet.

    Of course Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis do not perform gay marriages either
    As an atheist I feel this is none of my business and I respect your position and the position of other sects to decide what they like. However there is an issue with the CofE being the established church which is a conflict of interest.
    As I said I do not oppose gay marriage in the Church of England but would leave it up to each parish and diocese to decide whether to do them or not.

    Most I expect would now, only a few mainly evangelical churches wouldn't
    I appreciate you and your church take a moderate position on this. However that isn't the point. If you took a hard-line I also would have no objection as it is none of my business. As a liberal I object to interfering unnecessarily in people's lives. Live and let live, so if a church wants to ban female priests and gay marriage that is fine. Don't join it if you don't like it. However if your church is part of the establishment there is a conflict of interest.
  • Options
    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,365
    Sandpit said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.

    A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.

    The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.

    Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?

    But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good
    He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.

    He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.

    And there is more to come.

    Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning
    FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.

    Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.
    One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.
    Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?
    Not downplayed, just put into perspective. The concern amongst the military apparently is that politicians will see the use of battlefield nukes as being indicative of the Russians being willing to use the ICBMs so they are keen to ensure it is clear to politicians that there is a big distinction in Russian minds between the use of tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals. They are not trying to limit the western response, just put the Russian use into context.
    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...
    Not really. That is exactly the point. There are many non nuclear options. Russian use of battlefield nukes could be met with active NATO participation in Ukraine for example.
    Indeed so. It would be relatively easy for a NATO operation to target the Black Sea Fleet, and Russian air defences inside Ukraine, followed by extensive bombing of every railway line half a mile inside the Russia/Ukraine border. The Russians can’t operate without railways, and would have little choice but to withdraw from Ukraine or be cut off.

    For bonus points, give them a fortnight’s notice of the Kerch Bridge being destroyed, and watch all the Russians leave Crimea almost immediately.
    The problem is that a non-nuclear response would cement the idea that you can use a nuke. No matter if the whole world opens a can of whop ass on you.

    In the Rolling Thunder version of the response, what happens when the Russians put their next nuke on a Polish airbase?
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    kamskikamski Posts: 4,248
    HYUFD said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    At the moment only a minority of Christian denominations allow homosexual marriage, Lutherans, Methodists and some branches of the Anglican communion like the US Episcopal Church she was a member of. Personally I would each individual priest to make up their own mind on whether to allow it or not in the Church of England but we are not there yet.

    Of course Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis do not perform gay marriages either
    It may be a minority of Christian denominations, but in Europe outside the UK, the vast majority of protestants belong to churches that perform same sex marriages. Britain is out of line on this.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,725
    Nigelb said:

    The population of Tuapse is 63,000 people. 75.2% of the population are Russians, 8.5% are Armenians.

    A mobilization list of the Tuapse region is being circulated on social networks, from which it follows that about 90% of those drafted are Armenians.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/K_Agop/status/1572870545036972032

    Shouldn't Armenia invade, sorry, liberate that area then? That's Putin's rule.
This discussion has been closed.