“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Wonderful. Winter will be quite a bit less depressing.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an nenormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
I have been listening to people who know more than me. A useful analogy for ground warfare is scissors, paper, stone. Tanks beat artillery, artillery beats infantry, infantry beats tanks.
It must all work in concert like an orchestra for a successful offensive. Which means strong command and control, efficient logistics, autonomous decision making capability of fighting units and high morale.
Russia now lacks tanks and artillery, running out of precision weapons and even soviet stocks of shell. And they don’t have air superiority to make up for it. To a degree masses of infantry can make a difference but only a very highly motivated and trained one, that runs towards advancing tanks rather than away. It was lacking the orchestral ingredients from the beginning, though made much worse by Ukraine’s ruthless focus on causing troop attrition, and damage to command & control and logistics.
This should then be set against the battle map. Russia can only move the necessary materiel around by rail, given weak logistics capability (not enough off road trucks/drivers, forklift and pallet system etc…). And Ukraine is ruthlessly targeting rail junctions. The map is such that a proper Russian offensive to take all of Donbas is now practically impossible. It’s Kherson formation is trapped north of the Dnipro. And it’s Crimea land bridge is utterly vulnerable to an attack on the junction city of Melitopol.
The raised troops won’t make the difference. What of a low yield nuke? What do you suppose the reaction would be? From within Russia, from Russian trading partners. From the US (sanctions and militarily). And from the inhabitants of Ukraine. If success is judged by Russia securing the long term annexation of territory and a stronger Russia thereafter, it’s hard to think of a more counterproductive move than using a nuke.
Putin know he’s lost this war. His words and actions this week are about managing his right flank domestically and little more.
"Domestically" will mean something different this time next week, after the four regions are annexed. Will the US supply HIMARS for launching missiles inside (and at targets inside) what the Russian government says is Russia? Right now it seems the answer is yes, although it's possible that may change. If it is yes, the diplomatic situation between Russia and the US will certainly change, to put it mildly. That would be an inevitable consequence of the US decision. And then some. A new stage begins.
Who are Putin's "right flank"? Presumably that means hawks, and proper military or other silovik hawks rather than civilians who rant on about Eurasia. Are they all nuts who don't know they've lost too? Gotta wonder how Russia has actually stayed in one piece if the sharp end of the state is run by such incompetents who can't face reality. I don't mean that flippantly. If Russia were going to break up, it would already have done so.
LOL if you think that anyone is going to consider the annexation legitimate or "domestic" Russian territory.
Russia/the Soviet Union has broken up once before already. Putin seems to want to return to Soviet days, well I wouldn't rule out history repeating itself, first as tragedy and second as farce.
Whether any other power says it considers the annexations legitimate is irrelevant. What other powers do, especially the US, will be highly relevant. The planned referendums haven't had as much coverage in the Heil as the "partial mobilisation" but if the US supplies HIMARS weapons for use in what Russia says is Russia after the formal annexations (which is what the referendums are about) then US-Russian relations will change dramatically. Many diplomats will have to pack their bags.
The US didn't consider the annexations of the Baltic states legitimate either, but they recognised them de facto.
Your second para suggests you know little about the history of nationalities policy in the USSR. None of what were the 15 republics that constituted the USSR has broken up except for Moldova. Russia has not broken up once before. Somebody else here seemed to assume recently that the Soviet politburo consisted mainly of Muscovites. But the USSR wasn't Russia. Quite a few strong leaders aka mafia bosses from non-Russian republics sat on the Soviet politburo, such as Heydar Aliyev and Nursultan Nazarbayev for example.
The USSR, sorry Russia, hasn't de facto annexed any lands at the moment its invaded them and started a war it is losing - badly.
Vlad unilaterally saying he is annexing the land changes nothing.
Continue to live in your Daily Mail world where what foreign leaders seek most of all is the moral approval of the ever so upright British elite and the golf club members in the Tory party who are still fighting against the USSR which disappeared 30 years ago.
It's as if you don't recognise that Putin considers the home PR market to be more important than what British Tories think of him.
We'll see whether the US embassy in Moscow and the Russian embassy in Washington DC are at their present strength in a fortnight's time.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an nenormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
I have been listening to people who know more than me. A useful analogy for ground warfare is scissors, paper, stone. Tanks beat artillery, artillery beats infantry, infantry beats tanks.
It must all work in concert like an orchestra for a successful offensive. Which means strong command and control, efficient logistics, autonomous decision making capability of fighting units and high morale.
Russia now lacks tanks and artillery, running out of precision weapons and even soviet stocks of shell. And they don’t have air superiority to make up for it. To a degree masses of infantry can make a difference but only a very highly motivated and trained one, that runs towards advancing tanks rather than away. It was lacking the orchestral ingredients from the beginning, though made much worse by Ukraine’s ruthless focus on causing troop attrition, and damage to command & control and logistics.
This should then be set against the battle map. Russia can only move the necessary materiel around by rail, given weak logistics capability (not enough off road trucks/drivers, forklift and pallet system etc…). And Ukraine is ruthlessly targeting rail junctions. The map is such that a proper Russian offensive to take all of Donbas is now practically impossible. It’s Kherson formation is trapped north of the Dnipro. And it’s Crimea land bridge is utterly vulnerable to an attack on the junction city of Melitopol.
The raised troops won’t make the difference. What of a low yield nuke? What do you suppose the reaction would be? From within Russia, from Russian trading partners. From the US (sanctions and militarily). And from the inhabitants of Ukraine. If success is judged by Russia securing the long term annexation of territory and a stronger Russia thereafter, it’s hard to think of a more counterproductive move than using a nuke.
Putin know he’s lost this war. His words and actions this week are about managing his right flank domestically and little more.
"Domestically" will mean something different this time next week, after the four regions are annexed. Will the US supply HIMARS for launching missiles inside (and at targets inside) what the Russian government says is Russia? Right now it seems the answer is yes, although it's possible that may change. If it is yes, the diplomatic situation between Russia and the US will certainly change, to put it mildly. That would be an inevitable consequence of the US decision. And then some. A new stage begins.
Who are Putin's "right flank"? Presumably that means hawks, and proper military or other silovik hawks rather than civilians who rant on about Eurasia. Are they all nuts who don't know they've lost too? Gotta wonder how Russia has actually stayed in one piece if the sharp end of the state is run by such incompetents who can't face reality. I don't mean that flippantly. If Russia were going to break up, it would already have done so.
Given Russia is a military pygmy compared to the US (which also has countless allies) I doubt uncle sam would be that worried. And they've already provided weapons to hit Crimea, another unrecognised part of Russia.
The reality is that being reduced to sabre rattling about nuclear weapons is just a sign of how far Russia has fallen. They really don't have any other cards to play.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an nenormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
I have been listening to people who know more than me. A useful analogy for ground warfare is scissors, paper, stone. Tanks beat artillery, artillery beats infantry, infantry beats tanks.
It must all work in concert like an orchestra for a successful offensive. Which means strong command and control, efficient logistics, autonomous decision making capability of fighting units and high morale.
Russia now lacks tanks and artillery, running out of precision weapons and even soviet stocks of shell. And they don’t have air superiority to make up for it. To a degree masses of infantry can make a difference but only a very highly motivated and trained one, that runs towards advancing tanks rather than away. It was lacking the orchestral ingredients from the beginning, though made much worse by Ukraine’s ruthless focus on causing troop attrition, and damage to command & control and logistics.
This should then be set against the battle map. Russia can only move the necessary materiel around by rail, given weak logistics capability (not enough off road trucks/drivers, forklift and pallet system etc…). And Ukraine is ruthlessly targeting rail junctions. The map is such that a proper Russian offensive to take all of Donbas is now practically impossible. It’s Kherson formation is trapped north of the Dnipro. And it’s Crimea land bridge is utterly vulnerable to an attack on the junction city of Melitopol.
The raised troops won’t make the difference. What of a low yield nuke? What do you suppose the reaction would be? From within Russia, from Russian trading partners. From the US (sanctions and militarily). And from the inhabitants of Ukraine. If success is judged by Russia securing the long term annexation of territory and a stronger Russia thereafter, it’s hard to think of a more counterproductive move than using a nuke.
Putin know he’s lost this war. His words and actions this week are about managing his right flank domestically and little more.
"Domestically" will mean something different this time next week, after the four regions are annexed. Will the US supply HIMARS for launching missiles inside (and at targets inside) what the Russian government says is Russia? Right now it seems the answer is yes, although it's possible that may change. If it is yes, the diplomatic situation between Russia and the US will certainly change, to put it mildly. That would be an inevitable consequence of the US decision. And then some. A new stage begins.
So by that piece of bully's logic NATO could just accept Ukraine membership tomorrow and then claim any Russian attack on Ukrainian soil is an attack on NATO, and trigger article 5.
You'll say NATO would never do that because it would be an escalation putting the whole alliance at risk. Right - because we're not stupid. And Russia annexing territory that doesn't belong to it is a massive escalation which puts its leadership's own survival at risk.
Ukraine will continue to hit areas of its own country that have been illegally invaded with everything it can get its hands on, including HIMARS, and the only escalation will have come from Moscow.
I had to read it a second time as I couldn't quite believe it was stating what it was.
I think it is the calculation Putin may well have made since it is crazy enough, it seems like it would be a repeat of his 2014 move in Crimea which Ukraine was in no position to resist and no one else willing to do anything about, but quite aside from being even more blatant and ridiculous, it really is the same idea as Putin claiming all Ukraine as Russian territory (which he more or less has anyway) and claiming any retaliation is an escalation.
It would basically be a claim that nations are able to unilaterally change their borders and anyone who disputes them is 'provoking' the one making the claim, rather than the expansion being the provocation. Never mind NATO, no nation on the planet would ever rest easy again.
More than anything else Russia appears desperate to claim status as the victim of aggression, presumably part of the regime narrative to sustain itself, even as its forces are the ones crossing borders.
It's logically absurd on every level, which is why only the far left and far right seem to buy the 'provocation' line every time, when they try to claim any reaction to Russian aggression at all is an escalation.
Claiming your invasion is not an invasion doesn't make it so, and whilst the world was happy to look the other way once before, the stiffer response to this invasion has shown that they've woken up to that game and don't intend to look past it again - because it demonstrably encouraged Putin to do it again.
It's not even about the morality of it, plenty of shitty things in the world get a free pass after all. It's that ignoring the Russian problem before led to disaster this year. Ignoring it again by buying into the 'It's totally Russian territory now you guys' line isn't going to fly as a matter of practicality.
Sinn Fein has called for preparations for an Irish reunification referendum after a census showed Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time in the country’s history.
During partition in 1921, Northern Ireland’s borders were drawn to ensure a Protestant majority. Unionists are traditionally Protestant, while historically nationalists are mostly Catholic.
However, in the census, taken last year, a total of 45.7 per cent of the 1.9 million population identified as Catholic, compared to 43.5 per cent who were Protestant.
There was also a drop in the number of people in Northern Ireland who saw themselves as British and an increase in those identifying as Irish compared to the last census in 2011.
The 2011 census recorded 48 per cent of the population as Protestant or raised Protestant, and 45 per cent as Catholic.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister designate, said the change was “historic”.
Would solve many problems, but not great for NI residents who don’t want a United Ireland.
I think Irish Unity would struggle to reach 40% of the vote at the moment. A lot of people would be wary of upsetting the apple cart, and the Republic isn't really prepared for reunification either.
However, the longer the DUP obstruct the Assembly the worse the status quo looks, and if they wreck the NI economy by blowing up the protocol then that could move opinion quite substantially.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
Sinn Fein has called for preparations for an Irish reunification referendum after a census showed Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time in the country’s history.
During partition in 1921, Northern Ireland’s borders were drawn to ensure a Protestant majority. Unionists are traditionally Protestant, while historically nationalists are mostly Catholic.
However, in the census, taken last year, a total of 45.7 per cent of the 1.9 million population identified as Catholic, compared to 43.5 per cent who were Protestant.
There was also a drop in the number of people in Northern Ireland who saw themselves as British and an increase in those identifying as Irish compared to the last census in 2011.
The 2011 census recorded 48 per cent of the population as Protestant or raised Protestant, and 45 per cent as Catholic.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister designate, said the change was “historic”.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an nenormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
I have been listening to people who know more than me. A useful analogy for ground warfare is scissors, paper, stone. Tanks beat artillery, artillery beats infantry, infantry beats tanks.
It must all work in concert like an orchestra for a successful offensive. Which means strong command and control, efficient logistics, autonomous decision making capability of fighting units and high morale.
Russia now lacks tanks and artillery, running out of precision weapons and even soviet stocks of shell. And they don’t have air superiority to make up for it. To a degree masses of infantry can make a difference but only a very highly motivated and trained one, that runs towards advancing tanks rather than away. It was lacking the orchestral ingredients from the beginning, though made much worse by Ukraine’s ruthless focus on causing troop attrition, and damage to command & control and logistics.
This should then be set against the battle map. Russia can only move the necessary materiel around by rail, given weak logistics capability (not enough off road trucks/drivers, forklift and pallet system etc…). And Ukraine is ruthlessly targeting rail junctions. The map is such that a proper Russian offensive to take all of Donbas is now practically impossible. It’s Kherson formation is trapped north of the Dnipro. And it’s Crimea land bridge is utterly vulnerable to an attack on the junction city of Melitopol.
The raised troops won’t make the difference. What of a low yield nuke? What do you suppose the reaction would be? From within Russia, from Russian trading partners. From the US (sanctions and militarily). And from the inhabitants of Ukraine. If success is judged by Russia securing the long term annexation of territory and a stronger Russia thereafter, it’s hard to think of a more counterproductive move than using a nuke.
Putin know he’s lost this war. His words and actions this week are about managing his right flank domestically and little more.
"Domestically" will mean something different this time next week, after the four regions are annexed. Will the US supply HIMARS for launching missiles inside (and at targets inside) what the Russian government says is Russia? Right now it seems the answer is yes, although it's possible that may change. If it is yes, the diplomatic situation between Russia and the US will certainly change, to put it mildly. That would be an inevitable consequence of the US decision. And then some. A new stage begins.
Who are Putin's "right flank"? Presumably that means hawks, and proper military or other silovik hawks rather than civilians who rant on about Eurasia. Are they all nuts who don't know they've lost too? Gotta wonder how Russia has actually stayed in one piece if the sharp end of the state is run by such incompetents who can't face reality. I don't mean that flippantly. If Russia were going to break up, it would already have done so.
LOL if you think that anyone is going to consider the annexation legitimate or "domestic" Russian territory.
Russia/the Soviet Union has broken up once before already. Putin seems to want to return to Soviet days, well I wouldn't rule out history repeating itself, first as tragedy and second as farce.
Whether any other power says it considers the annexations legitimate is irrelevant. What other powers do, especially the US, will be highly relevant. The planned referendums haven't had as much coverage in the Heil as the "partial mobilisation" but if the US supplies HIMARS weapons for use in what Russia says is Russia after the formal annexations (which is what the referendums are about) then US-Russian relations will change dramatically. Many diplomats will have to pack their bags.
The US didn't consider the annexations of the Baltic states legitimate either, but they recognised them de facto.
Your second para suggests you know little about the history of nationalities policy in the USSR. None of what were the 15 republics that constituted the USSR has broken up except for Moldova. Russia has not broken up once before. Somebody else here seemed to assume recently that the Soviet politburo consisted mainly of Muscovites. But the USSR wasn't Russia. Quite a few strong leaders aka mafia bosses from non-Russian republics sat on the Soviet politburo, such as Heydar Aliyev and Nursultan Nazarbayev for example.
The USSR, sorry Russia, hasn't de facto annexed any lands at the moment its invaded them and started a war it is losing - badly.
Vlad unilaterally saying he is annexing the land changes nothing.
Continue to live in your Daily Mail world where what foreign leaders seek most of all is the moral approval of the ever so upright British elite and the golf club members in the Tory party who are still fighting against the USSR which disappeared 30 years ago.
It's as if you don't recognise that Putin considers the home PR market to be more important than what British Tories think of him.
We'll see whether the US embassy in Moscow and the Russian embassy in Washington DC are at their present strength in a fortnight's time.
Russia longs for global prestige. After his humiliation in Samarkand I'm sure Putin would take the approval of anyone he can get.
What would the Coffey think of a GP practice that signed up 10 000 patients and guaranteed appointments within 24 hours, with a 7 day service 0700-2300? Well we had one near me.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
Aren't farmers like fishermen though? A pretty small group, albeit influential. Other voters presumably wouldn't care much.
Truss might well just be writing off Scotland - and Wales and NI - we shall see.
A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.
A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.
The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.
Russia is a Muscovite Empire. So long as Moscow remains stable and happy, the rest of the country can burn in hell. Even in the Soviet Era, shops in Moscow could be packed with food for the locals, while there were empty shelves in any other town or city. Moscow is a parasite on the rest of Russia, the best possible thing for Russian people in most of the country, would be the end of Russia as a unified state.
This is an ignorant comment, sorry
I went to Moscow during the commie era. Did you?
Moscow was not "stable and happy", nor did it have shops "packed with food for the locals"
There were empty shelves in Moscow as everywhere across the USSR. There WERE a few well stocked shops for people with hard currency - valyuta - and Party membership cards - but they were rare and also scattered across the Soviet Empire. Thus ensuring loyalty from the Nomenklatura from Minsk to Vladisvostok
I remember going to Moscow in the early 90s as a teenager (just after the first McDonalds opened I believe). It was incredibly eye-opening seeing supermarkets with very little in them.
Tldr; in “affordability” terms, things are gonna get very messy for those with large mortgages.
Implication: House prices will fall. Negative equity. Bankruptcies.
Interesting to see the figures, but it does match my thoughts from the other day that house prices are up because people could afford to spend around 40% of income on it. Lower interest rates, greater affordability, higher prices.
Interest rates could be brutal by next year, though still negative in real terms. We need inflation matching pay-rises to escape the trap.
Though that then chases the pain to someone or somewhen else.
What's the optimal political outcome of Trussonimics? Continual good times, I guess, but that seems unlikely. If she extends feel good to 2024, she might win and then the mother of all hangovers happens on her second watch.
Optimal outcome:
High inflation is matched by equivalent wage growth and without a significant recession, debt falls proportionately relative to income as a result. House prices fall moderately, which combined with high wage growth leads to a significant correction to the better for house price to earnings ratios but doesn't lead to significant negative equity.
Russia loses the war, leading to commodity prices falling back down leading to inflation coming back down to a moderate, gentle rate with incomes then rising in real terms from a base where debt has been deflated and house price to earnings ratios are more realistic, without major negative equity.
Lower house prices but higher interest rates makes for no better affordability. Not really any advantage to people. Apart from savers, of course, and then only if interest rates are higher than inflation. We have had real terms negative interest rates since the GFC.
It makes getting a deposit more affordable, that's the primary advantage of lower house-price to earnings ratios. Getting a deposit has been the hardest part for a lot of prospective home buyers in recent years.
Getting a 10% deposit at an 8x ratio is like saving for a 20% at a 4x ratio.
It wasn't like that in 1992 when I bought my first house. In a negative equity stricken market mortgage valuations are cautiously low, and deposits required bigger. I remember it very well.
Inflation and negative equity is not the miracle cure you imagine. I remember the reality of it.
What we really need with property prices is for prices to continue to rise in nominal terms (avoiding negative equity) but falling in real terms (improving affordability). A higher rate of inflation does make that desirable outcome more feasible. It is one of the potential upsides.
Isn't the catch that high inflation requires higher nominal interest rates, which fairly rapidly does bad things to mortgage affordability?
It's a bit Thatcherite oversimplification, but aren't something-for-nothings always compensated by nothing-for-somethings somewhere/somewhen else?
And the long house price boom has been the acme of something-for-nothing.
If interest rates rocket property prices will fall quite a bit. It's a mathematical certainty. I'd bet my house on it - in fact I have (it's why I recently pulled out of a purchase).
A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.
A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.
The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.
Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?
But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good
He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.
He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.
And there is more to come.
Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning
FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.
Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.
One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.
Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?
"to put it into perspective for Western political leaders"
Indeed, that is why I think NATO will use conventional airforce to wreck the chain of command and make every officer in Russian chain of command fear for their life as a response, rather than reach for the football.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
I don't understand why this country can't have two time zones if that's an issue. Plenty of other countries are split.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an nenormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
I have been listening to people who know more than me. A useful analogy for ground warfare is scissors, paper, stone. Tanks beat artillery, artillery beats infantry, infantry beats tanks.
It must all work in concert like an orchestra for a successful offensive. Which means strong command and control, efficient logistics, autonomous decision making capability of fighting units and high morale.
Russia now lacks tanks and artillery, running out of precision weapons and even soviet stocks of shell. And they don’t have air superiority to make up for it. To a degree masses of infantry can make a difference but only a very highly motivated and trained one, that runs towards advancing tanks rather than away. It was lacking the orchestral ingredients from the beginning, though made much worse by Ukraine’s ruthless focus on causing troop attrition, and damage to command & control and logistics.
This should then be set against the battle map. Russia can only move the necessary materiel around by rail, given weak logistics capability (not enough off road trucks/drivers, forklift and pallet system etc…). And Ukraine is ruthlessly targeting rail junctions. The map is such that a proper Russian offensive to take all of Donbas is now practically impossible. It’s Kherson formation is trapped north of the Dnipro. And it’s Crimea land bridge is utterly vulnerable to an attack on the junction city of Melitopol.
The raised troops won’t make the difference. What of a low yield nuke? What do you suppose the reaction would be? From within Russia, from Russian trading partners. From the US (sanctions and militarily). And from the inhabitants of Ukraine. If success is judged by Russia securing the long term annexation of territory and a stronger Russia thereafter, it’s hard to think of a more counterproductive move than using a nuke.
Putin know he’s lost this war. His words and actions this week are about managing his right flank domestically and little more.
"Domestically" will mean something different this time next week, after the four regions are annexed. Will the US supply HIMARS for launching missiles inside (and at targets inside) what the Russian government says is Russia? Right now it seems the answer is yes, although it's possible that may change. If it is yes, the diplomatic situation between Russia and the US will certainly change, to put it mildly. That would be an inevitable consequence of the US decision. And then some. A new stage begins.
Who are Putin's "right flank"? Presumably that means hawks, and proper military or other silovik hawks rather than civilians who rant on about Eurasia. Are they all nuts who don't know they've lost too? Gotta wonder how Russia has actually stayed in one piece if the sharp end of the state is run by such incompetents who can't face reality. I don't mean that flippantly. If Russia were going to break up, it would already have done so.
Given Russia is a military pygmy compared to the US (which also has countless allies) I doubt uncle sam would be that worried. And they've already provided weapons to hit Crimea, another unrecognised part of Russia.
The reality is that being reduced to sabre rattling about nuclear weapons is just a sign of how far Russia has fallen. They really don't have any other cards to play.
It was notable, to me at any rate, that very early on in this phase of the war Russia was employing apocalyptic rhetoric toward those supplying Ukraine, including threatening to shoot down their planes or imply nukes could be on the table, even in response to nasty comments from Western leaders.
Since their response appears to be to reach for the nuke threats in response to mere words and logistical support, it is not a surprise that the threats might not be as effective as they once were, even though the boy who cried wolf did indeed come across a wolf in the end.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
Aren't farmers like fishermen though? A pretty small group, albeit influential. Other voters presumably wouldn't care much.
Truss might well just be writing off Scotland - and Wales and NI - we shall see.
Either the Scots can have their own time zone, or they can move school and business opening times to 10.00am. No big deal either way.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
Aren't farmers like fishermen though? A pretty small group, albeit influential. Other voters presumably wouldn't care much.
Truss might well just be writing off Scotland - and Wales and NI - we shall see.
Almost everyone has to go out in the dark to work, school, etc. This won't help.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Wouldn't we be better off moving the clocks in the other direction, so that we would shift the evening peak in electricity use later, and more out of phase with the rest of Europe?
Switching to Berlin time just means that the whole of Europe tries to use electricity in the evening peak at the same time.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an nenormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
I have been listening to people who know more than me. A useful analogy for ground warfare is scissors, paper, stone. Tanks beat artillery, artillery beats infantry, infantry beats tanks.
It must all work in concert like an orchestra for a successful offensive. Which means strong command and control, efficient logistics, autonomous decision making capability of fighting units and high morale.
Russia now lacks tanks and artillery, running out of precision weapons and even soviet stocks of shell. And they don’t have air superiority to make up for it. To a degree masses of infantry can make a difference but only a very highly motivated and trained one, that runs towards advancing tanks rather than away. It was lacking the orchestral ingredients from the beginning, though made much worse by Ukraine’s ruthless focus on causing troop attrition, and damage to command & control and logistics.
This should then be set against the battle map. Russia can only move the necessary materiel around by rail, given weak logistics capability (not enough off road trucks/drivers, forklift and pallet system etc…). And Ukraine is ruthlessly targeting rail junctions. The map is such that a proper Russian offensive to take all of Donbas is now practically impossible. It’s Kherson formation is trapped north of the Dnipro. And it’s Crimea land bridge is utterly vulnerable to an attack on the junction city of Melitopol.
The raised troops won’t make the difference. What of a low yield nuke? What do you suppose the reaction would be? From within Russia, from Russian trading partners. From the US (sanctions and militarily). And from the inhabitants of Ukraine. If success is judged by Russia securing the long term annexation of territory and a stronger Russia thereafter, it’s hard to think of a more counterproductive move than using a nuke.
Putin know he’s lost this war. His words and actions this week are about managing his right flank domestically and little more.
"Domestically" will mean something different this time next week, after the four regions are annexed. Will the US supply HIMARS for launching missiles inside (and at targets inside) what the Russian government says is Russia? Right now it seems the answer is yes, although it's possible that may change. If it is yes, the diplomatic situation between Russia and the US will certainly change, to put it mildly. That would be an inevitable consequence of the US decision. And then some. A new stage begins.
Who are Putin's "right flank"? Presumably that means hawks, and proper military or other silovik hawks rather than civilians who rant on about Eurasia. Are they all nuts who don't know they've lost too? Gotta wonder how Russia has actually stayed in one piece if the sharp end of the state is run by such incompetents who can't face reality. I don't mean that flippantly. If Russia were going to break up, it would already have done so.
LOL if you think that anyone is going to consider the annexation legitimate or "domestic" Russian territory.
Russia/the Soviet Union has broken up once before already. Putin seems to want to return to Soviet days, well I wouldn't rule out history repeating itself, first as tragedy and second as farce.
Whether any other power says it considers the annexations legitimate is irrelevant. What other powers do, especially the US, will be highly relevant. The planned referendums haven't had as much coverage in the Heil as the "partial mobilisation" but if the US supplies HIMARS weapons for use in what Russia says is Russia after the formal annexations (which is what the referendums are about) then US-Russian relations will change dramatically. Many diplomats will have to pack their bags.
The US didn't consider the annexations of the Baltic states legitimate either, but they recognised them de facto.
Your second para suggests you know little about the history of nationalities policy in the USSR. None of what were the 15 republics that constituted the USSR has broken up except for Moldova. Russia has not broken up once before. Somebody else here seemed to assume recently that the Soviet politburo consisted mainly of Muscovites. But the USSR wasn't Russia. Quite a few strong leaders aka mafia bosses from non-Russian republics sat on the Soviet politburo, such as Heydar Aliyev and Nursultan Nazarbayev for example.
The USSR, sorry Russia, hasn't de facto annexed any lands at the moment its invaded them and started a war it is losing - badly.
Vlad unilaterally saying he is annexing the land changes nothing.
Continue to live in your Daily Mail world where what foreign leaders seek most of all is the moral approval of the ever so upright British elite and the golf club members in the Tory party who are still fighting against the USSR which disappeared 30 years ago.
It's as if you don't recognise that Putin considers the home PR market to be more important than what British Tories think of him.
We'll see whether the US embassy in Moscow and the Russian embassy in Washington DC are at their present strength in a fortnight's time.
It's not about morality. Russia annexed part of Ukraine 8 years ago, the world did nothing, and then he tried to take even more this year.
Leaving morality out of it, how is it in the interests of the West to play along with the annexations this time, when it didn't lead to a diminution of Putin's desire to expand his empire last time?
If he is going to try to conquer new territories even if they in effect let him keep his last conquest, worsened relations don't seem worse from their perspective compared to him rearming to conquer yet more in future, when he feels able.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an nenormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
I have been listening to people who know more than me. A useful analogy for ground warfare is scissors, paper, stone. Tanks beat artillery, artillery beats infantry, infantry beats tanks.
It must all work in concert like an orchestra for a successful offensive. Which means strong command and control, efficient logistics, autonomous decision making capability of fighting units and high morale.
Russia now lacks tanks and artillery, running out of precision weapons and even soviet stocks of shell. And they don’t have air superiority to make up for it. To a degree masses of infantry can make a difference but only a very highly motivated and trained one, that runs towards advancing tanks rather than away. It was lacking the orchestral ingredients from the beginning, though made much worse by Ukraine’s ruthless focus on causing troop attrition, and damage to command & control and logistics.
This should then be set against the battle map. Russia can only move the necessary materiel around by rail, given weak logistics capability (not enough off road trucks/drivers, forklift and pallet system etc…). And Ukraine is ruthlessly targeting rail junctions. The map is such that a proper Russian offensive to take all of Donbas is now practically impossible. It’s Kherson formation is trapped north of the Dnipro. And it’s Crimea land bridge is utterly vulnerable to an attack on the junction city of Melitopol.
The raised troops won’t make the difference. What of a low yield nuke? What do you suppose the reaction would be? From within Russia, from Russian trading partners. From the US (sanctions and militarily). And from the inhabitants of Ukraine. If success is judged by Russia securing the long term annexation of territory and a stronger Russia thereafter, it’s hard to think of a more counterproductive move than using a nuke.
Putin know he’s lost this war. His words and actions this week are about managing his right flank domestically and little more.
"Domestically" will mean something different this time next week, after the four regions are annexed. Will the US supply HIMARS for launching missiles inside (and at targets inside) what the Russian government says is Russia? Right now it seems the answer is yes, although it's possible that may change. If it is yes, the diplomatic situation between Russia and the US will certainly change, to put it mildly. That would be an inevitable consequence of the US decision. And then some. A new stage begins.
Who are Putin's "right flank"? Presumably that means hawks, and proper military or other silovik hawks rather than civilians who rant on about Eurasia. Are they all nuts who don't know they've lost too? Gotta wonder how Russia has actually stayed in one piece if the sharp end of the state is run by such incompetents who can't face reality. I don't mean that flippantly. If Russia were going to break up, it would already have done so.
LOL if you think that anyone is going to consider the annexation legitimate or "domestic" Russian territory.
Russia/the Soviet Union has broken up once before already. Putin seems to want to return to Soviet days, well I wouldn't rule out history repeating itself, first as tragedy and second as farce.
Whether any other power says it considers the annexations legitimate is irrelevant. What other powers do, especially the US, will be highly relevant. The planned referendums haven't had as much coverage in the Heil as the "partial mobilisation" but if the US supplies HIMARS weapons for use in what Russia says is Russia after the formal annexations (which is what the referendums are about) then US-Russian relations will change dramatically. Many diplomats will have to pack their bags. You can say of course that you only care about facts on the ground. Fine. The situation on the ground will change, because otherwise there would be no effing point in the annexations.
The US didn't consider the annexations of the Baltic states legitimate either, but they recognised them de facto.
Your second para suggests you know little about the history of nationalities policy in the USSR. None of what were the 15 republics that constituted the USSR has broken up except for Moldova. Russia has not broken up once before. Somebody else here seemed to assume recently that the Soviet politburo consisted mainly of Muscovites. But the USSR wasn't Russia. Quite a few strong leaders - aka mafia bosses - from non-Russian republics sat on the Soviet politburo, such as Heydar Aliyev and Nursultan Nazarbayev for example.
You have a very detailed knowledge of Russia and the USSR.
Seems like Truss and Kwarteng have a very close relationship, according to this report. I imagine this will have implications for the country's fiscal affairs. Hard to imagine the government remaining faithful to its own fiscal rules, with PM and Chancellor engaging in the cosy bilateral meetings the article mentions away from civil service and OBR scrutiny.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
No doubt Truss will get accused of thinking she can solve the energy crisis by abolishing winter.
Sinn Fein has called for preparations for an Irish reunification referendum after a census showed Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time in the country’s history.
During partition in 1921, Northern Ireland’s borders were drawn to ensure a Protestant majority. Unionists are traditionally Protestant, while historically nationalists are mostly Catholic.
However, in the census, taken last year, a total of 45.7 per cent of the 1.9 million population identified as Catholic, compared to 43.5 per cent who were Protestant.
There was also a drop in the number of people in Northern Ireland who saw themselves as British and an increase in those identifying as Irish compared to the last census in 2011.
The 2011 census recorded 48 per cent of the population as Protestant or raised Protestant, and 45 per cent as Catholic.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister designate, said the change was “historic”.
Would solve many problems, but not great for NI residents who don’t want a United Ireland.
To be honest that is no different than the Northern Irish who didn't want to be part of UK&NI
No, it’s not, and all part of squaring the circle. See also leave vs remain in the U.K.
How so?
Surely you don't think Irish Nationalists in Derry, Newry, West Belfast, etc., etc. WANTED to be part of Northern Ireland, cut off within the UK from the rest of the island?
Russian media apparantly going with 'protestors will be drafted'
Drafting people who really, really don't want to fight must be part of Putin's "genius" that I am never going to understand. Of course we ought to consider the alternative possibility that Putin has gone completely round the twist.
Or he has no other alternative. His "regular" army is bled dry and needs to be rested and reformed for next spring's offensives. Commentators seem to think his plan is to use the conscripted reserves to hold defensive positions through winter. Although if they need three months training to get back to speed the winter will be half over.
They may also send some of the existing ~260000 conscripts.
Sinn Fein has called for preparations for an Irish reunification referendum after a census showed Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time in the country’s history.
During partition in 1921, Northern Ireland’s borders were drawn to ensure a Protestant majority. Unionists are traditionally Protestant, while historically nationalists are mostly Catholic.
However, in the census, taken last year, a total of 45.7 per cent of the 1.9 million population identified as Catholic, compared to 43.5 per cent who were Protestant.
There was also a drop in the number of people in Northern Ireland who saw themselves as British and an increase in those identifying as Irish compared to the last census in 2011.
The 2011 census recorded 48 per cent of the population as Protestant or raised Protestant, and 45 per cent as Catholic.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister designate, said the change was “historic”.
Sinn Fein has called for preparations for an Irish reunification referendum after a census showed Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time in the country’s history.
During partition in 1921, Northern Ireland’s borders were drawn to ensure a Protestant majority. Unionists are traditionally Protestant, while historically nationalists are mostly Catholic.
However, in the census, taken last year, a total of 45.7 per cent of the 1.9 million population identified as Catholic, compared to 43.5 per cent who were Protestant.
There was also a drop in the number of people in Northern Ireland who saw themselves as British and an increase in those identifying as Irish compared to the last census in 2011.
The 2011 census recorded 48 per cent of the population as Protestant or raised Protestant, and 45 per cent as Catholic.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister designate, said the change was “historic”.
Would solve many problems, but not great for NI residents who don’t want a United Ireland.
I think Irish Unity would struggle to reach 40% of the vote at the moment. A lot of people would be wary of upsetting the apple cart, and the Republic isn't really prepared for reunification either.
However, the longer the DUP obstruct the Assembly the worse the status quo looks, and if they wreck the NI economy by blowing up the protocol then that could move opinion quite substantially.
Do the DUP even have a plan? They come out worse in the perception stakes as all they seem to do is complain endlessly (then moan they are misunderstood and outsiders don't get it).
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
It doesn't change the amount of daylight. Just work at different hours.
Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
Aren't farmers like fishermen though? A pretty small group, albeit influential. Other voters presumably wouldn't care much.
Truss might well just be writing off Scotland - and Wales and NI - we shall see.
Either the Scots can have their own time zone, or they can move school and business opening times to 10.00am. No big deal either way.
Fiddling with time zones and time changes is "no big deal'? Surely you jest!
In the US, its been a Big Deal every since I learned to tell time, and (so I was told) for a good while before that.
The ISW have just updated their situation map to show significant Ukrainian advances in the past 24 hours, in the area to the east of Izium. Compared to yesterday, Rubtsi and Lozove are in Ukrainian hands and there is also now a much deeper penetration reaching round almost to the North of Lyman, which is now threatened from 3 sides.
Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.
I always get up in the dark as I need to go home to my wife
Maybe he should have been a more effective one then. After all, the position of his most second ardent defenders was he was one of the world's greatest anti-racists, but he has a massive blindspot about some of his acquaintances who had done racist things. (His most ardent defenders insist there was no racism at all, even the things he apologised about).
The ISW have just updated their situation map to show significant Ukrainian advances in the past 24 hours, in the area to the east of Izium. Compared to yesterday, Rubtsi and Lozove are in Ukrainian hands and there is also now a much deeper penetration reaching round almost to the North of Lyman, which is now threatened from 3 sides.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
I don't understand why this country can't have two time zones if that's an issue. Plenty of other countries are split.
Spot on. Rebrand GMT Glasgow Mean Time and let the rest of us get on with our lives free from its gloomy misery.
Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.
Sinn Fein has called for preparations for an Irish reunification referendum after a census showed Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time in the country’s history.
During partition in 1921, Northern Ireland’s borders were drawn to ensure a Protestant majority. Unionists are traditionally Protestant, while historically nationalists are mostly Catholic.
However, in the census, taken last year, a total of 45.7 per cent of the 1.9 million population identified as Catholic, compared to 43.5 per cent who were Protestant.
There was also a drop in the number of people in Northern Ireland who saw themselves as British and an increase in those identifying as Irish compared to the last census in 2011.
The 2011 census recorded 48 per cent of the population as Protestant or raised Protestant, and 45 per cent as Catholic.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister designate, said the change was “historic”.
Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.
What time was the dawn in winter in 1850? That'll be the one Mogg goes for.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an nenormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
I have been listening to people who know more than me. A useful analogy for ground warfare is scissors, paper, stone. Tanks beat artillery, artillery beats infantry, infantry beats tanks.
It must all work in concert like an orchestra for a successful offensive. Which means strong command and control, efficient logistics, autonomous decision making capability of fighting units and high morale.
Russia now lacks tanks and artillery, running out of precision weapons and even soviet stocks of shell. And they don’t have air superiority to make up for it. To a degree masses of infantry can make a difference but only a very highly motivated and trained one, that runs towards advancing tanks rather than away. It was lacking the orchestral ingredients from the beginning, though made much worse by Ukraine’s ruthless focus on causing troop attrition, and damage to command & control and logistics.
This should then be set against the battle map. Russia can only move the necessary materiel around by rail, given weak logistics capability (not enough off road trucks/drivers, forklift and pallet system etc…). And Ukraine is ruthlessly targeting rail junctions. The map is such that a proper Russian offensive to take all of Donbas is now practically impossible. It’s Kherson formation is trapped north of the Dnipro. And it’s Crimea land bridge is utterly vulnerable to an attack on the junction city of Melitopol.
The raised troops won’t make the difference. What of a low yield nuke? What do you suppose the reaction would be? From within Russia, from Russian trading partners. From the US (sanctions and militarily). And from the inhabitants of Ukraine. If success is judged by Russia securing the long term annexation of territory and a stronger Russia thereafter, it’s hard to think of a more counterproductive move than using a nuke.
Putin know he’s lost this war. His words and actions this week are about managing his right flank domestically and little more.
"Domestically" will mean something different this time next week, after the four regions are annexed. Will the US supply HIMARS for launching missiles inside (and at targets inside) what the Russian government says is Russia? Right now it seems the answer is yes, although it's possible that may change. If it is yes, the diplomatic situation between Russia and the US will certainly change, to put it mildly. That would be an inevitable consequence of the US decision. And then some. A new stage begins.
Who are Putin's "right flank"? Presumably that means hawks, and proper military or other silovik hawks rather than civilians who rant on about Eurasia. Are they all nuts who don't know they've lost too? Gotta wonder how Russia has actually stayed in one piece if the sharp end of the state is run by such incompetents who can't face reality. I don't mean that flippantly. If Russia were going to break up, it would already have done so.
LOL if you think that anyone is going to consider the annexation legitimate or "domestic" Russian territory.
Russia/the Soviet Union has broken up once before already. Putin seems to want to return to Soviet days, well I wouldn't rule out history repeating itself, first as tragedy and second as farce.
Whether any other power says it considers the annexations legitimate is irrelevant. What other powers do, especially the US, will be highly relevant. The planned referendums haven't had as much coverage in the Heil as the "partial mobilisation" but if the US supplies HIMARS weapons for use in what Russia says is Russia after the formal annexations (which is what the referendums are about) then US-Russian relations will change dramatically. Many diplomats will have to pack their bags.
The US didn't consider the annexations of the Baltic states legitimate either, but they recognised them de facto.
Your second para suggests you know little about the history of nationalities policy in the USSR. None of what were the 15 republics that constituted the USSR has broken up except for Moldova. Russia has not broken up once before. Somebody else here seemed to assume recently that the Soviet politburo consisted mainly of Muscovites. But the USSR wasn't Russia. Quite a few strong leaders aka mafia bosses from non-Russian republics sat on the Soviet politburo, such as Heydar Aliyev and Nursultan Nazarbayev for example.
The USSR, sorry Russia, hasn't de facto annexed any lands at the moment its invaded them and started a war it is losing - badly.
Vlad unilaterally saying he is annexing the land changes nothing.
Continue to live in your Daily Mail world where what foreign leaders seek most of all is the moral approval of the ever so upright British elite and the golf club members in the Tory party who are still fighting against the USSR which disappeared 30 years ago.
It's as if you don't recognise that Putin considers the home PR market to be more important than what British Tories think of him.
We'll see whether the US embassy in Moscow and the Russian embassy in Washington DC are at their present strength in a fortnight's time.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
No doubt Truss will get accused of thinking she can solve the energy crisis by abolishing winter.
Well that’s just a silly post. I’m no fan of Truss but GMT is a complete nonsense in London. Nobody wants it, it’s just needless misery. If the Scots want to retain GMT, fine, that makes sense. We should have split daylight saving on the Tweed decades ago.
Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.
I get up in the dark in the winter anyway. Dec-Jan it has only just got light when I leave for work. What I dislike more is coming home in the dark, after a tiring day at work.
Russian media apparantly going with 'protestors will be drafted'
Drafting people who really, really don't want to fight must be part of Putin's "genius" that I am never going to understand. Of course we ought to consider the alternative possibility that Putin has gone completely round the twist.
Or he has no other alternative. His "regular" army is bled dry and needs to be rested and reformed for next spring's offensives. Commentators seem to think his plan is to use the conscripted reserves to hold defensive positions through winter. Although if they need three months training to get back to speed the winter will be half over.
They may also send some of the existing ~260000 conscripts.
A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.
A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.
The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.
Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?
But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good
He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.
He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.
And there is more to come.
Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning
FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.
Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.
It would be an idiotic thing to do. After all the US never used nukes in Vietnam at the height of the cold war, North Korea hasn't ever got close to actually using them and that's been run by a true madman, and - perhaps most notably - Nazi Germany didn't use chemical weapons against Allied troops during WW2 even in the latter stages because of the taboo that had settled over them since WW1.
Putin and nukes feels a bit like Hitler and nerve gas. Widely anticipated but - hopefully - never actually resorted to even in extremis.
The Germans did use gas fighting the Soviet occupied cave system in Kerch in 1942.
Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.
Country that invented GMT abandons GMT.
Good. So what? GMT is absurd down here for the way we live today.
Sinn Fein has called for preparations for an Irish reunification referendum after a census showed Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time in the country’s history.
During partition in 1921, Northern Ireland’s borders were drawn to ensure a Protestant majority. Unionists are traditionally Protestant, while historically nationalists are mostly Catholic.
However, in the census, taken last year, a total of 45.7 per cent of the 1.9 million population identified as Catholic, compared to 43.5 per cent who were Protestant.
There was also a drop in the number of people in Northern Ireland who saw themselves as British and an increase in those identifying as Irish compared to the last census in 2011.
The 2011 census recorded 48 per cent of the population as Protestant or raised Protestant, and 45 per cent as Catholic.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister designate, said the change was “historic”.
Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.
Country that invented GMT abandons GMT.
GMT noon is the sun is at its highest.
That seems the natural order of things.
We should stopped tinkering.
And, if I recall, during my 1970s childhood there was some dicking about with time and moving around an hour.
Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.
Country that invented GMT abandons GMT.
GMT noon is the sun is at its highest.
That seems the natural order of things.
We should stopped tinkering.
And, if I recall, during my 1970s childhood there was some dicking about with time and moving around an hour.
True. But so what? There’s an argument for double summer time May through July, when it’s light at 4am and hours of daylight are wasted to sleep.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
I don't understand why this country can't have two time zones if that's an issue. Plenty of other countries are split.
The government is probably terrified of such symbolism.
Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.
Country that invented GMT abandons GMT.
GMT noon is the sun is at its highest.
That seems the natural order of things.
We should stopped tinkering.
And, if I recall, during my 1970s childhood there was some dicking about with time and moving around an hour.
True. But so what? There’s an argument for double summer time May through July, when it’s light at 4am and hours of daylight are wasted to sleep.
If you were a Uighur in Xinjiang, you'd have to wake up at the same time as folk in Beijing! The whole of China is GMT +8.
It is interesting he is at such pains to emphasise he did not write the Chakrabarti report or review it beforehand. Was that an accusation? I assumed it was just that people felt she had sold herself, not that it was felt Corbyn actively had a part in the report.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
I don't understand why this country can't have two time zones if that's an issue. Plenty of other countries are split.
Spot on. Rebrand GMT Glasgow Mean Time and let the rest of us get on with our lives free from its gloomy misery.
Get London on Central European Time Next up, apply for EU membership
Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.
Country that invented GMT abandons GMT.
GMT noon is the sun is at its highest.
That seems the natural order of things.
We should stopped tinkering.
And, if I recall, during my 1970s childhood there was some dicking about with time and moving around an hour.
True. But so what? There’s an argument for double summer time May through July, when it’s light at 4am and hours of daylight are wasted to sleep.
If you were a Uighur in Xinjiang, you'd have to wake up at the same time as folk in Beijing! The whole of China is GMT +8.
Definitely the main problem facing Uighurs in Xinjiang.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
I don't understand why this country can't have two time zones if that's an issue. Plenty of other countries are split.
The government is probably terrified of such symbolism.
As noted above, many other countries cope perfectly well with multiple time zones. Split it on the Humber or the Tyne if the Tweed is too politically portentous.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
I don't understand why this country can't have two time zones if that's an issue. Plenty of other countries are split.
Spot on. Rebrand GMT Glasgow Mean Time and let the rest of us get on with our lives free from its gloomy misery.
Get London on Central European Time Next up, apply for EU membership
There will be some (crazy) people for who that is the key stumbling block.
But it roughly makes sense; if we only have eight hours of daylight, it's more efficient and rational to use them for the 9-5 workday rather than 8-4. More of a problem further north, I acknowledge.
Maybe the government will do the right but unpopular thing.
Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.
Country that invented GMT abandons GMT.
GMT noon is the sun is at its highest.
That seems the natural order of things.
We should stopped tinkering.
And, if I recall, during my 1970s childhood there was some dicking about with time and moving around an hour.
True. But so what? There’s an argument for double summer time May through July, when it’s light at 4am and hours of daylight are wasted to sleep.
If you were a Uighur in Xinjiang, you'd have to wake up at the same time as folk in Beijing! The whole of China is GMT +8.
Ah, the Senate of Nations and Regions makes a reappearance. What with all parties promising to empower local communities in every manifesto, I'm amazed there are still so many sweeping new powers to grant them.
Shame about the Lords though, I was enjoying the 'temporary' measure of retaining some Hereditary Peers still persisting for nigh on a quarter century.
Labour is considering abolishing the House of Lords and replacing it with an upper house of nations and regions, as well as handing sweeping new powers to local regions and devolved nations, a leaked report has revealed.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
I don't understand why this country can't have two time zones if that's an issue. Plenty of other countries are split.
Spot on. Rebrand GMT Glasgow Mean Time and let the rest of us get on with our lives free from its gloomy misery.
Get London on Central European Time Next up, apply for EU membership
There will be some (crazy) people for who that is the key stumbling block.
But it roughly makes sense; if we only have eight hours of daylight, it's more efficient and rational to use them for the 9-5 workday rather than 8-4. More of a problem further north, I acknowledge.
Maybe the government will do the right but
unpopular thing.
In this case, I think it would actually be popular. Suspect few people south of the Humber have much affection for GMT - most struggle to see the point of it.
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul A Labour former special adviser tells me they think, given the state of the economy, Truss will be out by March
I can see the logic, and have a horrible feeling that Trussonimics boils down to "we'll just set fire to this part of the house, then we'll be nice and warm". But if the economy is going to get bad enough to ditch Truss that fast... Oh Momma. Don't have nightmares, everyone.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
I don't understand why this country can't have two time zones if that's an issue. Plenty of other countries are split.
We should have two entirely different timezones, one for Leavers and one for Remainers. The Leavers can be awake during the night, since none of them have jobs anyway and they mostly live in places that look better in the dark. During the night we are outside the EU. And Remainers can be awake during daylight hours, when they are busy working and paying taxes and being nice. During the day we can be a member of the EU. I'm surprised nobody has thought of this solution before, it is so obvious when you think about it.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
This Scot would be delighted. It must surely be safer for people to go to work or school in the dark, in the morning, when they are fresh, than come home in the dark, in the evening, when they are tired? In fact, I would go further. It would be good if people could come home from work and do outside things in daylight. Those who work outside could work different hours.
I cannot think of any other reason behind this behaviour, nossir. None at all. Snowden has said his silence on Ukraine is due to humility — wrongly claiming the invasion would never happen.
Anyway here's a Substack post that opens by comparing Biden to Hitler.
My phone has been buzzing all afternoon Re NIC cut from pleased one-time Tories on course to sit out the next election.
Sometimes pb is amazingly perceptive at predicting what will happen. And sometimes it gets into such strong group think it can’t spot the bigger trend. When it comes to Truss I think it’s the latter.
The govt energy measures have already succeeded in knocking 5pts off peak headline inflation forecasts, which puts a dent in index linked govt spending and general inflation expectations. And they mean it when they say they want to position the economy for fast catch-up growth out of this recession. It will be kitchen sink stuff to get growth by any means. There’s nothing they can do about the Fed induced dollar strength without taking control of monetary policy. But the Fed will surely pivot long before the next Uk election.
Meanwhile Truss looks likely to take a practical approach to the Northern Ireland Protocol, sucking the final Brexit poison out for the benefit of Remainia Tories. And boundary changes to come.
I am reminded right now of the Coalition mid term polls, when many assumed we’d be looking at a Miliband/Balls govt of some form. Talk of a Truss exit in 2023 utterly bemuses me, unless these anonymous informed voices have inside info unavailable to mere plebs like me. Right now the base case should be a 2015 result +- 10 seats or so either way.
Now, you could argue that's not Truss's fault. But the electorate won't care.
We already saw from one poster their energy bill will be lower than last year. And commodity prices are way down from the peak almost across the board. By the way anyone who thinks there’s no impact on gas prices from Putin falling out a window and Russia scaling down the war isn’t thinking straight. Medium term diversification of supply will still happen. But if there’s cheap gas on tap, then europe will still buy it.
And wholesale gas prices are in any case about a half of the peak. Germany drove them temporarily sky high by filling up their strategic reserve at all cost. And there was lots of panic buying / speculative froth / trading profit in the price.
Truss / Kwarteng are gambling their plan will mean growth going into the election gives the feel good factor after a tough period during the war. And I reckon the odds are pretty good they’ll win that gamble. Especially since the war is now already basically lost for Russia, it’s just the how and when left to be determined.
How the fuck is the war ‘nearly lost’ for Russia?
They are recruiting 1m men to fight. They have a massive war chest from oil and gas sales
He’s putting the Russian economy on a total war footing. It’s complete mobilization. And he has an nenormous arsenal of nukes
He cannot vanquish all Ukraine as things stand but if he drops one tactical nuke on, say, snake island or Odessa or wherever, then that completely changes the game
I have been listening to people who know more than me. A useful analogy for ground warfare is scissors, paper, stone. Tanks beat artillery, artillery beats infantry, infantry beats tanks.
It must all work in concert like an orchestra for a successful offensive. Which means strong command and control, efficient logistics, autonomous decision making capability of fighting units and high morale.
Russia now lacks tanks and artillery, running out of precision weapons and even soviet stocks of shell. And they don’t have air superiority to make up for it. To a degree masses of infantry can make a difference but only a very highly motivated and trained one, that runs towards advancing tanks rather than away. It was lacking the orchestral ingredients from the beginning, though made much worse by Ukraine’s ruthless focus on causing troop attrition, and damage to command & control and logistics.
This should then be set against the battle map. Russia can only move the necessary materiel around by rail, given weak logistics capability (not enough off road trucks/drivers, forklift and pallet system etc…). And Ukraine is ruthlessly targeting rail junctions. The map is such that a proper Russian offensive to take all of Donbas is now practically impossible. It’s Kherson formation is trapped north of the Dnipro. And it’s Crimea land bridge is utterly vulnerable to an attack on the junction city of Melitopol.
The raised troops won’t make the difference. What of a low yield nuke? What do you suppose the reaction would be? From within Russia, from Russian trading partners. From the US (sanctions and militarily). And from the inhabitants of Ukraine. If success is judged by Russia securing the long term annexation of territory and a stronger Russia thereafter, it’s hard to think of a more counterproductive move than using a nuke.
Putin know he’s lost this war. His words and actions this week are about managing his right flank domestically and little more.
"Domestically" will mean something different this time next week, after the four regions are annexed. Will the US supply HIMARS for launching missiles inside (and at targets inside) what the Russian government says is Russia? Right now it seems the answer is yes, although it's possible that may change. If it is yes, the diplomatic situation between Russia and the US will certainly change, to put it mildly. That would be an inevitable consequence of the US decision. And then some. A new stage begins.
Who are Putin's "right flank"? Presumably that means hawks, and proper military or other silovik hawks rather than civilians who rant on about Eurasia. Are they all nuts who don't know they've lost too? Gotta wonder how Russia has actually stayed in one piece if the sharp end of the state is run by such incompetents who can't face reality. I don't mean that flippantly. If Russia were going to break up, it would already have done so.
No:
It would be the inevitable consequence of Russia annexing their neighbour's territory.
Zelensky says one of his non-negotiable conditions for peace is that Russia be stripped of its permanent seat on the UN Security Council - which of course it can't be.
Sinn Fein has called for preparations for an Irish reunification referendum after a census showed Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time in the country’s history.
During partition in 1921, Northern Ireland’s borders were drawn to ensure a Protestant majority. Unionists are traditionally Protestant, while historically nationalists are mostly Catholic.
However, in the census, taken last year, a total of 45.7 per cent of the 1.9 million population identified as Catholic, compared to 43.5 per cent who were Protestant.
There was also a drop in the number of people in Northern Ireland who saw themselves as British and an increase in those identifying as Irish compared to the last census in 2011.
The 2011 census recorded 48 per cent of the population as Protestant or raised Protestant, and 45 per cent as Catholic.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister designate, said the change was “historic”.
Though ' 31.9 per cent said they were “British only” and eight per cent deemed themselves “British and Northern Irish”.
The proportion of the population that said they were “Irish only” was 29.1 per cent, while for those identifying as “Northern Irish only” it was 19.8 per cent.'
Zelensky says one of his non-negotiable conditions for peace is that Russia be stripped of its permanent seat on the UN Security Council - which of course it can't be.
Non negotiable conditions are rare non-negotiable. If that's the only one not achieved they'd presumably take it. Though any rule can be changed (though the UK would fight not to lose our seat).
It's certainly more reasonable than the counter offer 'Stop fighting and just die already, that is how you get peace'.
Zelensky says one of his non-negotiable conditions for peace is that Russia be stripped of its permanent seat on the UN Security Council - which of course it can't be.
Do you have a source for that?
I do though think that no seat on the SC should be permanent, including our own. It is just a fossilised bit of history from when the UN was set up, reflecting the geopolitical realities of 75 years ago.
Why should "Upper Volta with Rockets" be represented and have a veto?
Voting starts in the referendums tomorrow. I wonder what result the Kremlin has decided to go for.
Does it actually need to be rigged given that the referenda are in current de facto Russian territory and every Ukranian man of fighting age has apparently been mobilised ?
That being said they'll juice it to ~90-10 I think.
Voting starts in the referendums tomorrow. I wonder what result the Kremlin has decided to go for.
So cynical, I'm sure it is totally possible to undertake a free and fair plebiscite, and hold it adequately in a war zone, with only days notice, even as some of the areas are not under full Russian control.
The Crimean 'referendum' was 96% in favour on an 83% turnout, so I'm thinking they will 'realistic' and go for 85% on a 75% turnout this time (online votes donchaknow).
Sinn Fein has called for preparations for an Irish reunification referendum after a census showed Catholics outnumber Protestants in Northern Ireland for the first time in the country’s history.
During partition in 1921, Northern Ireland’s borders were drawn to ensure a Protestant majority. Unionists are traditionally Protestant, while historically nationalists are mostly Catholic.
However, in the census, taken last year, a total of 45.7 per cent of the 1.9 million population identified as Catholic, compared to 43.5 per cent who were Protestant.
There was also a drop in the number of people in Northern Ireland who saw themselves as British and an increase in those identifying as Irish compared to the last census in 2011.
The 2011 census recorded 48 per cent of the population as Protestant or raised Protestant, and 45 per cent as Catholic.
Sinn Fein’s Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister designate, said the change was “historic”.
How is that a “well now” moment. Sinn Fein have never called for a border poll before?
Have they had what looks like a reasonably compelling case before?
It’s largely driven by protestants becoming atheists faster than catholics are.
One prays that American youth will take the US the same way.
Off topic, I wonder what they put in American bread that enables you to keep it for over a week and drive it around in a hot car from place to place, and not a spot of mould on it?
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
I don't understand why this country can't have two time zones if that's an issue. Plenty of other countries are split.
The government is probably terrified of such symbolism.
As noted above, many other countries cope perfectly well with multiple time zones. Split it on the Humber or the Tyne if the Tweed is too politically portentous.
Most countries with multiple time zones are much larger than the UK and divided by latitude rather than longitude, although Ireland had Dublin Mean Time 25 min behind GMT until 1916.
Voting starts in the referendums tomorrow. I wonder what result the Kremlin has decided to go for.
Does it actually need to be rigged given that the referenda are in current de facto Russian territory and every Ukranian man of fighting age has apparently been mobilised ?
That being said they'll juice it to ~90-10 I think.
It has been suggested from time to time that some autocratic regimes have sufficient popularity that they might actually win a free and fair election. But of course, as Kasparov for one has notably stated, that doesn't mean anything since they don't dare risk that.
When you are used to rigging it is probably hard to know when not to bother. Plus there's the question of how you rig - prevent opposition voices being heard, intimidate them from voting, ban candidates etc, ballot stuff, or just plain make it all up completely.
Christ, the logistics of it all at such speed, in the place that they are, is such that even if they would win a vote given who actually remains in the area, they would need to rig things simply because they won't be able to get enough people to take part.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
I don't understand why this country can't have two time zones if that's an issue. Plenty of other countries are split.
The government is probably terrified of such symbolism.
As noted above, many other countries cope perfectly well with multiple time zones. Split it on the Humber or the Tyne if the Tweed is too politically portentous.
Most countries with multiple time zones are much larger than the UK and divided by latitude rather than longitude, although Ireland had Dublin Mean Time 25 min behind GMT until 1916.
That's either bizarre local choice or a dickish imposition.
I wonder when Putin goes (Which won't be for a while) who might take over. Kadyrov could be a leftfield runner, he's the tiktok warlord. I think his Islamic faith would be an issue for the Orthodox masses though. It'll probably be Medvedev.
I wonder when Putin goes (Which won't be for a while) who might take over. Kadyrov could be a leftfield runner, he's the tiktok warlord. I think his Islamic faith would be an issue for the Orthodox masses though. It'll probably be Medvedev.
It was interesting that when the BBC did a piece on the inner Putinist circle around the start of the war, Medvedev was not included on it even though he served as Putin's proxy president, was his longstanding PM, and is his deputy on the security council. He wasn't even included in the 'who else does Putin listen to?' section at the end.
He's quite a bit younger than Putin or some of the other major players, not truly one of them?
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Wonderful. Winter will be quite a bit less depressing.
Voting starts in the referendums tomorrow. I wonder what result the Kremlin has decided to go for.
You mean that the EU isn’t sending election observers?
It would be amazing if Putin wanted to get out of the war and so rigged the referendums so that Russia lost. Then he could pose as a Democrat and bow out gracefully while keeping his throne in Russia.
If he were half as smart as he thinks he is that's what he would do do.
You forget that Putin is now desperate. Cornered by his own terrible blunders. He is one big defeat away from being sodomised by a bayonet like Gadaffi
That’s why he’s gone full fat mobilisation (the “partial” shit was a lie so he wouldn’t freak out his own people). Proper mobilisation is the act of a seriously paranoid and frightened man
He knows he can’t train them up in time to turn the tide of battle this year. And he’s running out of weapons
What he can do is probably stop the Ukrainian advance by sheer weight of numbers and also make the enemy think again
This is where a tactical nuke comes in handy. Drop one and say to the west: I’ll drop more unless you stop arming Kyiv
It’s a massively risky move. For the world and for him. But it could work in the short medium term and save his sorry ass - for now
If I was Putin, I’d do it. Because all options are grim now
However it does depend on him having a military willing to obey this instruction. A moot point
"If I was Putin. I'd do it".
No you wouldn't because you consider consequences. I know this because during Lockdown 1 you hunkered down in Penarth as you feared the consequences of remaining in the smoke with the great unwashed
One person avoiding getting ill, though, even with a fatal disease, is different from their giving up a chance to do this:
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
I don't understand why this country can't have two time zones if that's an issue. Plenty of other countries are split.
Spot on. Rebrand GMT Glasgow Mean Time and let the rest of us get on with our lives free from its gloomy misery.
Get London on Central European Time Next up, apply for EU membership
There will be some (crazy) people for who that is the key stumbling block.
But it roughly makes sense; if we only have eight hours of daylight, it's more efficient and rational to use them for the 9-5 workday rather than 8-4. More of a problem further north, I acknowledge.
Maybe the government will do the right but
unpopular thing.
In this case, I think it would actually be popular. Suspect few people south of the Humber have much affection for GMT - most struggle to see the point of it.
Some kids will get knocked over by a car on the way to school in Wick and Scotland becomes a independent country. The butterfly effect.
(I was northerly enough to walk to and from school in twilight. Didn't help that the uniform was all black ...)
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Wonderful. Winter will be quite a bit less depressing.
I love it. Go Tories actually a decent call
While they are about it they could let Scotland go, and so reduce our country’s average rainfall and push up our sunshine and temperatures?
I wonder when Putin goes (Which won't be for a while) who might take over. Kadyrov could be a leftfield runner, he's the tiktok warlord. I think his Islamic faith would be an issue for the Orthodox masses though. It'll probably be Medvedev.
It was interesting that when the BBC did a piece on the inner Putinist circle around the start of the war, Medvedev was not included on it even though he served as Putin's proxy president, was his longstanding PM, and is his deputy on the security council. He wasn't even included in the 'who else does Putin listen to?' section at the end.
He's quite a bit younger than Putin or some of the other major players, not truly one of them?
My spidey sense is that most of Russia thinks Putin has been too soft and half hearted in the war so far. Given it's the defining point of his presidency I think whoever comes next will be more hardline. Medvedev and Kadyrov are two such characters. It'll probably be someone we've never heard of mind.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
Hmm, the Scots won't be happy, or the farmers in the North of England and Ireland. DArk till amost 1000, and it's not even proper natural time.
This Scot would be delighted. It must surely be safer for people to go to work or school in the dark, in the morning, when they are fresh, than come home in the dark, in the evening, when they are tired? In fact, I would go further. It would be good if people could come home from work and do outside things in daylight. Those who work outside could work different hours.
It is worth looking at Portugal's failed experiment with this in 1992.
"The measure quickly proved to be a failure in achieving its objectives and became unpopular: on winter mornings, the sun was still rising at 09:00 and people travelled to work in the dark. Children also began the school day in darkness, with repercussions on their standards of learning, school performance and sleeping habits. It was even common that children fell asleep in the early morning classes. On summer evenings, the usage of Central European Summer Time was revealed to have a disturbing effect on peoples', especially children's, sleeping habits, as the sun was still setting as late as 22:30, so the sky was only completely dark towards midnight.
A company hired by European Commission conducted a study which concluded that, in fact, there were no energy savings because, due to the dark early mornings, workers turned on lights in their offices and forgot to turn them off, leaving them switched on for the rest of the morning, which increased energy consumption. Furthermore, an increase in the number of assaults on children in the morning was observed, and insurance companies reported a rise in the number of accidents"
So saying it will help conserve energy is bunkum. As are the claims about it being better for safety. And given that Portugal is a lot further south than even London we could expect the downside to be considerably worse here.
It is a genuinely stupid idea promoted only by those who lack the initiative to make the very insignificant adjustments twice a year.
Voting starts in the referendums tomorrow. I wonder what result the Kremlin has decided to go for.
Does it actually need to be rigged given that the referenda are in current de facto Russian territory and every Ukranian man of fighting age has apparently been mobilised ?
That being said they'll juice it to ~90-10 I think.
It has been suggested from time to time that some autocratic regimes have sufficient popularity that they might actually win a free and fair election. But of course, as Kasparov for one has notably stated, that doesn't mean anything since they don't dare risk that.
When you are used to rigging it is probably hard to know when not to bother. Plus there's the question of how you rig - prevent opposition voices being heard, intimidate them from voting, ban candidates etc, ballot stuff, or just plain make it all up completely.
Christ, the logistics of it all at such speed, in the place that they are, is such that even if they would win a vote given who actually remains in the area, they would need to rig things simply because they won't be able to get enough people to take part.
I remember when the Burmese Junta were daft enough to allow a free vote, believing their own propaganda . The National League for Democracy got over 80% of the vote.
“Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”
FUCK.
That means a nine hour time gap with LA for half the year.
Voting starts in the referendums tomorrow. I wonder what result the Kremlin has decided to go for.
Does it actually need to be rigged given that the referenda are in current de facto Russian territory and every Ukranian man of fighting age has apparently been mobilised ?
That being said they'll juice it to ~90-10 I think.
It has been suggested from time to time that some autocratic regimes have sufficient popularity that they might actually win a free and fair election. But of course, as Kasparov for one has notably stated, that doesn't mean anything since they don't dare risk that.
When you are used to rigging it is probably hard to know when not to bother. Plus there's the question of how you rig - prevent opposition voices being heard, intimidate them from voting, ban candidates etc, ballot stuff, or just plain make it all up completely.
Christ, the logistics of it all at such speed, in the place that they are, is such that even if they would win a vote given who actually remains in the area, they would need to rig things simply because they won't be able to get enough people to take part.
I remember when the Burmese Junta were daft enough to allow a free vote, believing their own propaganda . The National League for Democracy got over 80% of the vote.
Also see the Hong Kong parish elections a few years ago, where, equally, Beijing believed its own lies. They learned their lesson on that one right enough.
Comments
It's as if you don't recognise that Putin considers the home PR market to be more important than what British Tories think of him.
We'll see whether the US embassy in Moscow and the Russian embassy in Washington DC are at their present strength in a fortnight's time.
The reality is that being reduced to sabre rattling about nuclear weapons is just a sign of how far Russia has fallen. They really don't have any other cards to play.
It's logically absurd on every level, which is why only the far left and far right seem to buy the 'provocation' line every time, when they try to claim any reaction to Russian aggression at all is an escalation.
Claiming your invasion is not an invasion doesn't make it so, and whilst the world was happy to look the other way once before, the stiffer response to this invasion has shown that they've woken up to that game and don't intend to look past it again - because it demonstrably encouraged Putin to do it again.
It's not even about the morality of it, plenty of shitty things in the world get a free pass after all. It's that ignoring the Russian problem before led to disaster this year. Ignoring it again by buying into the 'It's totally Russian territory now you guys' line isn't going to fly as a matter of practicality.
However, the longer the DUP obstruct the Assembly the worse the status quo looks, and if they wreck the NI economy by blowing up the protocol then that could move opinion quite substantially.
What could possibly go wrong?
https://www.leicestermercury.co.uk/news/inadequate-gp-surgery-being-investigated-7538691
Truss might well just be writing off Scotland - and Wales and NI - we shall see.
Indeed, that is why I think NATO will use conventional airforce to wreck the chain of command and make every officer in Russian chain of command fear for their life as a response, rather than reach for the football.
Since their response appears to be to reach for the nuke threats in response to mere words and logistical support, it is not a surprise that the threats might not be as effective as they once were, even though the boy who cried wolf did indeed come across a wolf in the end.
Switching to Berlin time just means that the whole of Europe tries to use electricity in the evening peak at the same time.
Leaving morality out of it, how is it in the interests of the West to play along with the annexations this time, when it didn't lead to a diminution of Putin's desire to expand his empire last time?
If he is going to try to conquer new territories even if they in effect let him keep his last conquest, worsened relations don't seem worse from their perspective compared to him rearming to conquer yet more in future, when he feels able.
Seems like Truss and Kwarteng have a very close relationship, according to this report. I imagine this will have implications for the country's fiscal affairs. Hard to imagine the government remaining faithful to its own fiscal rules, with PM and Chancellor engaging in the cosy bilateral meetings the article mentions away from civil service and OBR scrutiny.
Surely you don't think Irish Nationalists in Derry, Newry, West Belfast, etc., etc. WANTED to be part of Northern Ireland, cut off within the UK from the rest of the island?
In the US, its been a Big Deal every since I learned to tell time, and (so I was told) for a good while before that.
https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375
Maybe he should have been a more effective one then. After all, the position of his most second ardent defenders was he was one of the world's greatest anti-racists, but he has a massive blindspot about some of his acquaintances who had done racist things. (His most ardent defenders insist there was no racism at all, even the things he apologised about).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Air_raid_on_Bari
🚨🇮🇷#Iran: Reports coming from Tehran that the city is liberated and the Islamic regime has lost control of almost all areas.
https://twitter.com/Terror_Alarm/status/1573066413459251200
That seems the natural order of things.
We should stopped tinkering.
And, if I recall, during my 1970s childhood there was some dicking about with time and moving around an hour.
Good evening, Europe!
Let this evening be a truly good one for you, and we, #UAarmy , will make sure you enjoy it.
https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1573058245605965825
And dress by yellow candle-light.
In summer, quite the other way,
I have to go to bed by day.
Still ridiculous though.
@JohnRentoul
A Labour former special adviser tells me they think, given the state of the economy, Truss will be out by March
But it roughly makes sense; if we only have eight hours of daylight, it's more efficient and rational to use them for the 9-5 workday rather than 8-4. More of a problem further north, I acknowledge.
Maybe the government will do the right but unpopular thing.
Shame about the Lords though, I was enjoying the 'temporary' measure of retaining some Hereditary Peers still persisting for nigh on a quarter century.
Labour is considering abolishing the House of Lords and replacing it with an upper house of nations and regions, as well as handing sweeping new powers to local regions and devolved nations, a leaked report has revealed.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/22/labour-considering-abolishing-house-of-lords-if-it-wins-next-election-leaked-report-reveals?CMP=share_btn_tw
Snowden has said his silence on Ukraine is due to humility — wrongly claiming the invasion would never happen.
Anyway here's a Substack post that opens by comparing Biden to Hitler.
https://twitter.com/charliearchy/status/1573049342650613760?cxt=HHwWgIDQrd6CzNQrAAAA
It would be the inevitable consequence of Russia annexing their neighbour's territory.
You are victim blaming.
The proportion of the population that said they were “Irish only” was 29.1 per cent, while for those identifying as “Northern Irish only” it was 19.8 per cent.'
It's certainly more reasonable than the counter offer 'Stop fighting and just die already, that is how you get peace'.
I do though think that no seat on the SC should be permanent, including our own. It is just a fossilised bit of history from when the UN was set up, reflecting the geopolitical realities of 75 years ago.
Why should "Upper Volta with Rockets" be represented and have a veto?
That being said they'll juice it to ~90-10 I think.
The Crimean 'referendum' was 96% in favour on an 83% turnout, so I'm thinking they will 'realistic' and go for 85% on a 75% turnout this time (online votes donchaknow).
Off topic, I wonder what they put in American bread that enables you to keep it for over a week and drive it around in a hot car from place to place, and not a spot of mould on it?
When you are used to rigging it is probably hard to know when not to bother. Plus there's the question of how you rig - prevent opposition voices being heard, intimidate them from voting, ban candidates etc, ballot stuff, or just plain make it all up completely.
Christ, the logistics of it all at such speed, in the place that they are, is such that even if they would win a vote given who actually remains in the area, they would need to rig things simply because they won't be able to get enough people to take part.
It'll probably be Medvedev.
He's quite a bit younger than Putin or some of the other major players, not truly one of them?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60573261
If he were half as smart as he thinks he is that's what he would do do.
Still swerving it here.
(I was northerly enough to walk to and from school in twilight. Didn't help that the uniform was all black ...)
It'll probably be someone we've never heard of mind.
"The measure quickly proved to be a failure in achieving its objectives and became unpopular: on winter mornings, the sun was still rising at 09:00 and people travelled to work in the dark. Children also began the school day in darkness, with repercussions on their standards of learning, school performance and sleeping habits. It was even common that children fell asleep in the early morning classes. On summer evenings, the usage of Central European Summer Time was revealed to have a disturbing effect on peoples', especially children's, sleeping habits, as the sun was still setting as late as 22:30, so the sky was only completely dark towards midnight.
A company hired by European Commission conducted a study which concluded that, in fact, there were no energy savings because, due to the dark early mornings, workers turned on lights in their offices and forgot to turn them off, leaving them switched on for the rest of the morning, which increased energy consumption. Furthermore, an increase in the number of assaults on children in the morning was observed, and insurance companies reported a rise in the number of accidents"
So saying it will help conserve energy is bunkum. As are the claims about it being better for safety. And given that Portugal is a lot further south than even London we could expect the downside to be considerably worse here.
It is a genuinely stupid idea promoted only by those who lack the initiative to make the very insignificant adjustments twice a year.
That means a nine hour time gap with LA for half the year.
NOT HAPPY.