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LizT compared with others who’ve became PM mid-parliament – politicalbetting.com

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  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    As long as you spend it. Will you spend it?

    Giving extra to poorer people does a better job boosting the economy through their higher propensity to consume?
    It only partly makes up for my real terms pay cut of 7%, so in real terms I shall spend less than last year.
    I suspect that most people out there are getting a real terms pay cut of more than you are.
    Isn't the current sitrep that private sector employers are having to keep pay at least on the same planet as inflation?

    It's the government who are being stingy a) because they think they can and b) their numbers don't add up if they pay to fill all the vacancies in schools'n'hospitals.
    It’s interesting, In my (private) firm I’ve not seen such interest in the annual pay rise from the team before. Quite some anxiety there. All hoping that inflation is dealt with in full.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671

    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    I am fully behind year round daylight savings. It is nuts that this hasn't been done before.

    First Tory policy for a long time that has my full support.

    Feels like an issue which needs to be devolved. Sure, makes sense at southerly latitudes. But at northerly ones? Would literally kill people.
    Personally I think moving our timezone permanently to GMT+1 is a very silly idea.

    But the people on both sides of the debate get far too hyperbolic. There's no reason why schools need to start at 8:40, they could start at 7:40 or 9:40 instead.
    Pray tell how a working parent is supposed to drop off smaller kids at 9.40am.

    There's no reason workplaces can't operate from 8-4 or 10-6.
    There is a reason - so many employers are the ban hammer word. As you're proposing a liberalisation of practices so different things can do their own thing, instead of "just start earlier" we get anarchy. These schools start earlier than those schools in the same town. Employers don't change hours because why should they, and it becomes a big mess.
    You do realise don't you that year-round "summer time" is something the European Union has voted for by QMV and is mandating for all countries. I'm surprised if Britain post-Brexit is continuing with it, its an area where I think it absolutely should not be determined on an EU level, and one I'd happily see post-Brexit Britain diverge from.

    But if the Scottish Government said that they were eg operating schools from 9:40 - 4:30 instead of 8:40 - 3:30 and they were recommending businesses to operate from 10 - 6 instead of 9 - 5 (or adjust times if its the other way around) then that wouldn't be anarchy. Lots of businesses operate on a basis of 'the done thing' and especially what schools are doing, and those that are would adopt the new recommended hours instead of sticking with the old 'done thing'.
    If that happened surely there would be huge howls from the Unionists about the SNP breaking up Britain by making Scotland work to different hours. Which is probably a deliberate feature in the Tories' minds.
    Education is a devolved matter.

    Hollywood's guidance is a devolved matter.

    The SNP could use its existing powers to try to make things better, but it's easier to rail against Westminster instead.
    Holyrood.

    The SNP will inject this into the grievance machine with glee. It suits them very well - they have lost their Highlands/Grampian credibility since the switch of focus to the central belt (see A96 dualling, etc) - this helps with that.
  • Scott_xP said:

    On Today, @SimonClarkeMP literally just said that the point of raising NI was to raise money for public services, and the point of cutting it is to raise money for public services. Whatever you think of the policy, they've completely given up on any pretence at credibility.
    https://twitter.com/jdportes/status/1573209522457706497

    Simon Clarke, like all of the other massive dinosaurs, has a tiny brain in comparison to his massive body.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    DavidL said:

    Yes, it does appear that any referendum in Donetsk Oblast is going to be missing some voters to say the least.
    Russia knows what people are feeling even if their words and actions argue the opposite anyway.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    tlg86 said:

    ClippP said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    This is like that Simpson's episode when Lisa goes bad so Bart decides to go good. Of course, it doesn't work like that, so I am a incredulous at the left moaning about Tory profligacy.
    You may or may not have noticed but I am as dry as dust on debt and deficit.

    I think we should run a balanced budget and fund services from current taxation, over a very short cycle. If that requires tax rises then OK.
    So why aren't you a Tory like the rest of us? Or at least, what attracts you to the Lib Dems, who aren't exactly dry as dust?
    I thought we were.....
    Hard to tell:

    https://twitter.com/EdwardJDavey/status/1272792809146327042

    Ed Davey
    @EdwardJDavey
    Marcus Rashford highlighting with honesty and lived experience why the govt must reverse their decision on providing free school meal vouchers during the summer.

    He also shows how far we have to travel to end the injustice and unfairness of child poverty.


    Just another one of the "spend some f****** money" brigade.
    Not if we raise the money too. Raise the money and spend it on the right things. Yeah.... Not too difficult.
  • Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    As long as you spend it. Will you spend it?

    Giving extra to poorer people does a better job boosting the economy through their higher propensity to consume?
    It only partly makes up for my real terms pay cut of 7%, so in real terms I shall spend less than last year.
    I suspect that most people out there are getting a real terms pay cut of more than you are.
    Isn't the current sitrep that private sector employers are having to keep pay at least on the same planet as inflation?

    It's the government who are being stingy a) because they think they can and b) their numbers don't add up if they pay to fill all the vacancies in schools'n'hospitals.
    I think the opposite. I know no-one in the private sector who has had a significant pay rise - many haven't had one at all - and look askance at the increases in the public sector. This may be a unrepresentative sample I know - which is why I ask here.
    I'm going from reports like this;

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/september2022

    Average regular pay growth for the private sector was 6.0% in May to July 2022, and 2.0% for the public sector; outside of the height of the pandemic period, this is the largest difference we have seen between the private sector and public sector.

    Though averages can cover a multitude of sins.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,671

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.

    A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.

    The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.

    Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?

    But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good
    He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.

    He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.

    And there is more to come.

    Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning
    FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.

    Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.
    One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.
    Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?
    Not downplayed, just put into perspective. The concern amongst the military apparently is that politicians will see the use of battlefield nukes as being indicative of the Russians being willing to use the ICBMs so they are keen to ensure it is clear to politicians that there is a big distinction in Russian minds between the use of tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals. They are not trying to limit the western response, just put the Russian use into context.
    Wasn't there a brief discussion about doing this to Raqqa at the height of ISIS?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840

    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    I am fully behind year round daylight savings. It is nuts that this hasn't been done before.

    First Tory policy for a long time that has my full support.

    Feels like an issue which needs to be devolved. Sure, makes sense at southerly latitudes. But at northerly ones? Would literally kill people.
    Personally I think moving our timezone permanently to GMT+1 is a very silly idea.

    But the people on both sides of the debate get far too hyperbolic. There's no reason why schools need to start at 8:40, they could start at 7:40 or 9:40 instead.
    Pray tell how a working parent is supposed to drop off smaller kids at 9.40am.

    There's no reason workplaces can't operate from 8-4 or 10-6.
    There is a reason - so many employers are the ban hammer word. As you're proposing a liberalisation of practices so different things can do their own thing, instead of "just start earlier" we get anarchy. These schools start earlier than those schools in the same town. Employers don't change hours because why should they, and it becomes a big mess.
    You do realise don't you that year-round "summer time" is something the European Union has voted for by QMV and is mandating for all countries. I'm surprised if Britain post-Brexit is continuing with it, its an area where I think it absolutely should not be determined on an EU level, and one I'd happily see post-Brexit Britain diverge from.

    But if the Scottish Government said that they were eg operating schools from 9:40 - 4:30 instead of 8:40 - 3:30 and they were recommending businesses to operate from 10 - 6 instead of 9 - 5 (or adjust times if its the other way around) then that wouldn't be anarchy. Lots of businesses operate on a basis of 'the done thing' and especially what schools are doing, and those that are would adopt the new recommended hours instead of sticking with the old 'done thing'.
    If that happened surely there would be huge howls from the Unionists about the SNP breaking up Britain by making Scotland work to different hours. Which is probably a deliberate feature in the Tories' minds.
    Education is a devolved matter.

    Hollywood's guidance is a devolved matter.

    The SNP could use its existing powers to try to make things better, but it's easier to rail against Westminster instead.
    I'm sure the US film industry have nothing to do with UKG policy.

    The point I am making is that it is the *Unionists* who will rail against Edinburgh if Edinburgh does anything differently. But then they always do.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    edited September 2022

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    This is like that Simpson's episode when Lisa goes bad so Bart decides to go good. Of course, it doesn't work like that, so I am a incredulous at the left moaning about Tory profligacy.
    You may or may not have noticed but I am as dry as dust on debt and deficit.

    I think we should run a balanced budget and fund services from current taxation, over a very short cycle. If that requires tax rises then OK.
    And yet you may be shortly retiring due to the pensions issue, which is about paying more tax.

    More tax is always good if someone else is paying it.
    No, I maxed out on the lifetime allowance already, so have withdrawn from NHS Superannuation a couple of years back therefore unaffected by the recent issues. Taxation isn't affecting my retirement plans, though may well be so for many colleagues. I plan to work another decade, albeit part time shortly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    DavidL said:

    ydoethur said:

    DavidL said:

    Yes, it does appear that any referendum in Donetsk Oblast is going to be missing some voters to say the least.
    Voters? Where do they come into it?
    The referendums, of course, lack any credibility outside Russia but even inside Russia the proposed referendums had been postponed because of the "security situation" on the ground where Ukraine controlled some of the Oblast concerned. That was until Thursday's U turn of course.
    Yes, even they had to admit logistically it just was not viable (even to fake). It will be interesting who if anyone (besides dynamo and probably stop the war) declares such an exercise now a game changer.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Listening to a Tory MP on Today going on and on about growth. Growth growth growth. The biggest growth spurt the UK economy could have js by rejoining the EU and the single market. He hasn’t been asked about this yet.
    https://twitter.com/Baddiel/status/1573210349842702336
  • Mr. Stocky, I was glancing at the EPL table the other day and Leicester have had a start that might be compared to Rome's opening years in the Second Punic War.

    With inflation high I'd be a bit reluctant to lock cash up for so long, but I'd be inclined to consider how close other teams are. After all, Leicester don't have to be good, just outscore another three teams. The others currently in the relegation zone are only 3 points higher, and (discounting Crystal Palace who have a game in hand) there are four others that would be matched or passed in the next 3 point increment.

    Good shot of relegation but I'm not intending to bet on that market (if I were, I might be looking at laying teams rather than backing them).
  • As the Tories have abandoned any claim to fiscal conservatism, the debate now is not about whether you borrow, it's what you borrow for: to make rich people richer or to improve public services and infrastructure.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    As long as you spend it. Will you spend it?

    Giving extra to poorer people does a better job boosting the economy through their higher propensity to consume?
    It only partly makes up for my real terms pay cut of 7%, so in real terms I shall spend less than last year.
    I suspect that most people out there are getting a real terms pay cut of more than you are.
    Isn't the current sitrep that private sector employers are having to keep pay at least on the same planet as inflation?

    It's the government who are being stingy a) because they think they can and b) their numbers don't add up if they pay to fill all the vacancies in schools'n'hospitals.
    I think the opposite. I know no-one in the private sector who has had a significant pay rise - many haven't had one at all - and look askance at the increases in the public sector. This may be a unrepresentative sample I know - which is why I ask here.
    That experience doesn't match ONS figures, though there may well be a lag in those.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    As long as you spend it. Will you spend it?

    Giving extra to poorer people does a better job boosting the economy through their higher propensity to consume?
    It only partly makes up for my real terms pay cut of 7%, so in real terms I shall spend less than last year.
    I suspect that most people out there are getting a real terms pay cut of more than you are.
    Isn't the current sitrep that private sector employers are having to keep pay at least on the same planet as inflation?

    It's the government who are being stingy a) because they think they can and b) their numbers don't add up if they pay to fill all the vacancies in schools'n'hospitals.
    I think the opposite. I know no-one in the private sector who has had a significant pay rise - many haven't had one at all - and look askance at the increases in the public sector. This may be a unrepresentative sample I know - which is why I ask here.
    Love to know who in the public sector has had a large payrise - especially when you look at the long term and compare salaries now with 2010...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    This is like that Simpson's episode when Lisa goes bad so Bart decides to go good. Of course, it doesn't work like that, so I am a incredulous at the left moaning about Tory profligacy.
    You may or may not have noticed but I am as dry as dust on debt and deficit.

    I think we should run a balanced budget and fund services from current taxation, over a very short cycle. If that requires tax rises then OK.
    And yet you may be shortly retiring due to the pensions issue, which is about paying more tax.

    More tax is always good if someone else is paying it.
    No, I maxed out on the lifetime allowance already, so have withdrawn from NHS Superannuation a couple of years back therefore unaffected by the recent issues. Taxation isn't affecting my retirement plans, though may well be so for many colleagues. I plan to work another decade, albeit part time shortly.
    That's interesting - was the option to withdraw from the DB scheme given to all staff - and were those that did compensated in a different form?
  • Mr. Observer, you must lament that Labour's policy of borrowing billions would fling half of it at the better off.

    As an aside, I (sadly) must agree that this borrowing addiction has now fully infected both sides of the political divide. It's wretched, heaping costs upon tomorrow for sweeties today.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The pound is down against the dollar again this morning. Now below $1.12.
    Bloomberg’s trade and fx-weighted index of sterling’s strength is down to the lowest level EVER👇
    Quite the backdrop for today’s fiscal statement…
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573216053412372480/photo/1
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990


    ...

  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    eek said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    As long as you spend it. Will you spend it?

    Giving extra to poorer people does a better job boosting the economy through their higher propensity to consume?
    It only partly makes up for my real terms pay cut of 7%, so in real terms I shall spend less than last year.
    I suspect that most people out there are getting a real terms pay cut of more than you are.
    Isn't the current sitrep that private sector employers are having to keep pay at least on the same planet as inflation?

    It's the government who are being stingy a) because they think they can and b) their numbers don't add up if they pay to fill all the vacancies in schools'n'hospitals.
    I think the opposite. I know no-one in the private sector who has had a significant pay rise - many haven't had one at all - and look askance at the increases in the public sector. This may be a unrepresentative sample I know - which is why I ask here.
    Love to know who in the public sector has had a large payrise - especially when you look at the long term and compare salaries now with 2010...
    I'm talking about the current period and if you are in the private sector with no pay rise at all the public sector rises look large.
  • Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    It isn't a cut.
  • What time is the fiscal statement?
  • Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    As long as you spend it. Will you spend it?

    Giving extra to poorer people does a better job boosting the economy through their higher propensity to consume?
    It only partly makes up for my real terms pay cut of 7%, so in real terms I shall spend less than last year.
    I suspect that most people out there are getting a real terms pay cut of more than you are.
    Isn't the current sitrep that private sector employers are having to keep pay at least on the same planet as inflation?

    It's the government who are being stingy a) because they think they can and b) their numbers don't add up if they pay to fill all the vacancies in schools'n'hospitals.
    I think the opposite. I know no-one in the private sector who has had a significant pay rise - many haven't had one at all - and look askance at the increases in the public sector. This may be a unrepresentative sample I know - which is why I ask here.
    I'm going from reports like this;

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/averageweeklyearningsingreatbritain/september2022

    Average regular pay growth for the private sector was 6.0% in May to July 2022, and 2.0% for the public sector; outside of the height of the pandemic period, this is the largest difference we have seen between the private sector and public sector.

    Though averages can cover a multitude of sins.
    Yeah but this is PB so anecdote >> data.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    IshmaelZ said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Re nuclear weapons, I hope Biden instead of panicking like everyone on here is asking the right question:

    Who do we offer $5 million to to NOT press the nuclear button if ordered to do so?

    The alternative is a cyber attack to destroy their systems, but the bribe is probably cheaper and more effective.

    U.S. has sent private warnings to Russia against using a nuclear weapon

    The Biden administration has been sending messages to Moscow about the grave consequences that would follow the use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/09/22/russia-nuclear-threat-us-options/
    The grave consequences being...?
    "Go ahead. Find out...."
  • Scott_xP said:

    The pound is down against the dollar again this morning. Now below $1.12.
    Bloomberg’s trade and fx-weighted index of sterling’s strength is down to the lowest level EVER👇
    Quite the backdrop for today’s fiscal statement…
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573216053412372480/photo/1

    Is it JUST possible yesterday's interest rate rise wasn't enough? 👿
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    As long as you spend it. Will you spend it?

    Giving extra to poorer people does a better job boosting the economy through their higher propensity to consume?
    Trickle down does not work.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The pound is down against the dollar again this morning. Now below $1.12.
    Bloomberg’s trade and fx-weighted index of sterling’s strength is down to the lowest level EVER👇
    Quite the backdrop for today’s fiscal statement…
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573216053412372480/photo/1

    USD parity next year.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Unarguable.

    If it works, great. But it seems more about giveaways and hope, not an expectation.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,664
    It will be interesting to see how Labour deals with this nonsense today. Clearly the Kwasi Quasi-Conservatives want to be seen as tax cutting entrepreneurs, free of 12 years of baggage. That can’t happen.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    What time is the fiscal statement?

    About 5 minutes before the Sterling crash...
  • Mr. Pubman, the MPC is a bit reminiscent of Sideshow Bob spending a minute stepping on 27 different rakes. It's remarkable to see the same mistake repeated month after month.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Listening to a Tory MP on Today going on and on about growth. Growth growth growth. The biggest growth spurt the UK economy could have js by rejoining the EU and the single market. He hasn’t been asked about this yet.
    https://twitter.com/Baddiel/status/1573210349842702336

    William Keegan calls leaving the SM a massive "anti-growth" measure.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    edited September 2022

    Mr. Observer, you must lament that Labour's policy of borrowing billions would fling half of it at the better off.

    As an aside, I (sadly) must agree that this borrowing addiction has now fully infected both sides of the political divide. It's wretched, heaping costs upon tomorrow for sweeties today.

    The energy price cap has to be universal so that it can be implemented as quickly as possible, and no-one falls through the cracks. But it certainly helps the better off and so makes any tax cuts that will benefit them disproportionately even harder to justify.

    Borrowing to improve public services and infrastructure is not about sweeties, it's about creating a solid basis on which sustainable growth can be built.

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Of course Birbalsingh was appointed chair of the social mobility commission by Liz Truss, who as PM now wants to expand grammar schools https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1573213934408155139
  • kle4 said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Unarguable.

    If it works, great. But it seems more about giveaways and hope, not an expectation.
    I know this is not how our system works practically, but morally there is no mandate to do any of this dash for growth. None of iirc was in the manifesto.
  • Mr. Observer, the cost (per year) would be £60bn of Labour's policy, with £30bn of taxpayer's cash being flung at the better off and borrowing soaring to pay for it. It's nuts.

    But (and we'll see the detail soon) I'm less than enamoured with the Conservative approach either, regarding higher borrowing, potential regional income tax (insanity) and this stupid rumour of buggering with daylight savings time.

    Anyway, we shall see what's announced. I'm going to have to spend some time deciding how to vote next election, it seems.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,568
    edited September 2022

    kle4 said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Unarguable.

    If it works, great. But it seems more about giveaways and hope, not an expectation.
    I know this is not how our system works practically, but morally there is no mandate to do any of this dash for growth. None of iirc was in the manifesto.
    Nothing about Covid or war in Ukraine was in the Manifestoes either.

    It's called governing. If they are good at it, they get another term. If not - the old cheerio routine.

    (Well, in the UK at least. Maybe not in the EU....)

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    At the moment only a minority of Christian denominations allow homosexual marriage, Lutherans, Methodists and some branches of the Anglican communion like the US Episcopal Church she was a member of. Personally I would each individual priest to make up their own mind on whether to allow it or not in the Church of England but we are not there yet.

    Of course Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis do not perform gay marriages either
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    I’ve got a strange feeling todays announce is going to be a dogs dinner.

    The markets won’t like it. It’ll make some Tory MPs nervous and they’ll struggle to endorse it.

    Labour will love it
  • Scott_xP said:

    Of course Birbalsingh was appointed chair of the social mobility commission by Liz Truss, who as PM now wants to expand grammar schools https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1573213934408155139

    As I've noted before, I have a lot of time for Birbalsingh. Hopefully as she also has fans on the right she might get listened to on this issue, where anyone who has looked seriously at it has come to the same conclusion.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Gilt yields (eg the govt’s cost of borrowing) hit a decade-and-a-bit high last night, with the 10yr rising above 3.5%, but are down a touch this morning.
    These are the kinds of charts & metrics the Treasury will be watching nervously today.
    We’ll keep you updated on @SkyNews https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573217862138855425/photo/1
  • Eabhal said:

    Fishing said:

    carnforth said:

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1573042498703958017?s=46&t=pKbiqcpdZoA6dYT4UQdLtA

    “Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”

    Wonderful. Winter will be quite a bit less depressing.
    I love it. Go Tories actually a decent call
    Yes, there's nothing more depressing than going to work in daylight and going home when it's dark.

    And besides, studies have shown that this would save a significant number of lives over the winter because there would be fewer accidents.
    Not in Wick!!
    No settlements of any significant size up there. Even the Highland Region as a whole amounts to only 0.35% of the UK population, or thereabouts. So even if you're right in your premise, ignoring the interests of the vast majority of the country to focus only the interests of only a tiny minority is not a good basis for policy. Tail wagging the dog.

    And if it really did create an issue in one particular geographical extremity of the UK, there are ways around it specific to those areas. How about responding by just putting back the start and end of the school day up there by a bit, which might prompt local businesses to do the same?

    Its not just the extremities. The majority of the population would go from coming home in the dark in the middle of winter to going to work and coming home in the dark. How is that an improvement.

    Those advocating these changes need to look at facts not theories and the facts are that the last country to try this gave it up after it was found to have few benefits and lots of downsides. We tried it ourselves for 2 years at the start of the seventies and it proved very unpopular when the reality set in.
    I don't accept your claim at all. You're judging things from what happens in the extreme depth of winter alone. GMT goes on for 5 months until the end of March, the impact on the whole period should be looked at not just a few weeks of it around the equinox. What is not good is arriving home in the dark in February or even in March, as can happen now to a commuter working 9 to 5 (and note the lack of symmetry in those hours around noon). What people do value is the ability to have even a bit of leisure time in daylight outside of weekends, which is why the ridiculously late changing of the clocks at the end of March always lifts the spirits when it belatedly happens.

    In terms of historical precedent, the working day nowadays is shorter than it was 50 years ago. So I don't think you can judge anything from what might have happened long ago. But it should be noted that the dropping of the late 60s experiment was highly contentious. Surveys for the white paper 20 years later also found that public opinion had swung away from GMT since the the 1960s.

    Most people have no interest in being outside in the evening in February. Nor are most people going home in the dark in March. Sunset in Birmingham on 1st March is 17.46.

    Moreover, the majority of the working population don't even work 9-5 these days. In 2018 a survey of businesses found that only 6% of people work 9-5. It is you who is living in the past and trying to build an argument around an outdated idea.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Scott_xP said:

    Of course Birbalsingh was appointed chair of the social mobility commission by Liz Truss, who as PM now wants to expand grammar schools https://twitter.com/theousherwood/status/1573213934408155139

    As I've noted before, I have a lot of time for Birbalsingh. Hopefully as she also has fans on the right she might get listened to on this issue, where anyone who has looked seriously at it has come to the same conclusion.
    More likely Truss sacks her
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270

    AlistairM said:

    Not sure if this is genuine? (video on the link)

    🚨🇮🇷#Iran: Reports coming from Tehran that the city is liberated and the Islamic regime has lost control of almost all areas.
    https://twitter.com/Terror_Alarm/status/1573066413459251200

    Sounds overblown based on other reports. But clearly PLENTY of unrest on the streets in cities across Iran.
    What is there beyond 'The Islamic Regime'? Back to Zoroastrianism? I'm delighted to hear it, but it seems deeply implausible.
    What the anti-government types want seems to be that the elections become real elections and that Islam comes a matter for the individual, rather than imposed by the state.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Simon Clarke, Treasury Chief Secretary until two weeks ago, described NICs rise as "transformative". He now describes the reversal of that policy as "game-changing".

    Explains his March position with "I was only doing my job". But THIS time, he definitely definitely means it. ~AA

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1573217849203621888/video/1
  • Scott_xP said:



    ...

    I'd argue that shows him in a positive light, not a negative one.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    Given the Tories only won most workers under 65 earning above
    £100,000 at the last general election, presumably just Truss rewarding the core vote?
  • Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    As long as you spend it. Will you spend it?

    Giving extra to poorer people does a better job boosting the economy through their higher propensity to consume?
    Trickle down does not work.
    Not true. It shovels money to the rich, which is its purpose, so it works absolutely fine.
  • carnforth said:

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1573042498703958017?s=46&t=pKbiqcpdZoA6dYT4UQdLtA

    “Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”

    No doubt Truss will get accused of thinking she can solve the energy crisis by abolishing winter.
    Well that’s just a silly post. I’m no fan of Truss but GMT is a complete nonsense in London. Nobody wants it, it’s just needless misery. If the Scots want to retain GMT, fine, that makes sense. We should have split daylight saving on the Tweed decades ago.
    Greenwich is in London. How can you say GMT is a complete nonsense in London?

    You have a complete misunderstanding about what time is. If you want to get up earlier, get up earlier. You don't have to trash centuries of the system of time to do so.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,840
    HYUFD said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    At the moment only a minority of Christian denominations allow homosexual marriage, Lutherans, Methodists and some branches of the Anglican communion like the US Episcopal Church she was a member of. Personally I would each individual priest to make up their own mind on whether to allow it or not in the Church of England but we are not there yet.

    Of course Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis do not perform gay marriages either
    But "Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis" are not paid employees of the C of E whose entire reason for existence is to be the Established Church of the (mostly) English state which absolutely permits gay marriage.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The pound is down against the dollar again this morning. Now below $1.12.
    Bloomberg’s trade and fx-weighted index of sterling’s strength is down to the lowest level EVER👇
    Quite the backdrop for today’s fiscal statement…
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573216053412372480/photo/1

    USD parity next year.
    Or sooner?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,662
    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    This is like that Simpson's episode when Lisa goes bad so Bart decides to go good. Of course, it doesn't work like that, so I am a incredulous at the left moaning about Tory profligacy.
    You may or may not have noticed but I am as dry as dust on debt and deficit.

    I think we should run a balanced budget and fund services from current taxation, over a very short cycle. If that requires tax rises then OK.
    And yet you may be shortly retiring due to the pensions issue, which is about paying more tax.

    More tax is always good if someone else is paying it.
    No, I maxed out on the lifetime allowance already, so have withdrawn from NHS Superannuation a couple of years back therefore unaffected by the recent issues. Taxation isn't affecting my retirement plans, though may well be so for many colleagues. I plan to work another decade, albeit part time shortly.
    That's interesting - was the option to withdraw from the DB scheme given to all staff - and were those that did compensated in a different form?
    Yes, anyone can opt out at any time. It gave me a 14.5% payrise by no longer paying into the NHS pension. Certain benefits are lost, such as death in service and retirement due to ill health, so I covered those with insurance outside the scheme.

    I wouldn't advise anyone else to do so, it is likely to not suit their circumstances.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    As long as you spend it. Will you spend it?

    Giving extra to poorer people does a better job boosting the economy through their higher propensity to consume?
    It only partly makes up for my real terms pay cut of 7%, so in real terms I shall spend less than last year.
    I suspect that most people out there are getting a real terms pay cut of more than you are.
    Isn't the current sitrep that private sector employers are having to keep pay at least on the same planet as inflation?

    It's the government who are being stingy a) because they think they can and b) their numbers don't add up if they pay to fill all the vacancies in schools'n'hospitals.
    I think the opposite. I know no-one in the private sector who has had a significant pay rise - many haven't had one at all - and look askance at the increases in the public sector. This may be a unrepresentative sample I know - which is why I ask here.
    In the last 18 months I've had two 14% pay rises.

    The conclusion I've come to is that I was being underpaid before.
  • carnforth said:

    https://twitter.com/cjsnowdon/status/1573042498703958017?s=46&t=pKbiqcpdZoA6dYT4UQdLtA

    “Hearing rumours that there will be a big announcement about rolling out British Summertime all year round tomorrow. With the cost of energy, sources tell me that it’s a “done deal”.”

    No doubt Truss will get accused of thinking she can solve the energy crisis by abolishing winter.
    Well that’s just a silly post. I’m no fan of Truss but GMT is a complete nonsense in London. Nobody wants it, it’s just needless misery. If the Scots want to retain GMT, fine, that makes sense. We should have split daylight saving on the Tweed decades ago.
    Greenwich is in London. How can you say GMT is a complete nonsense in London?

    You have a complete misunderstanding about what time is. If you want to get up earlier, get up earlier. You don't have to trash centuries of the system of time to do so.
    Yep we are going to be in the utterly stupid situation where the place that was the benchmark for time across the whole world no longer uses that benchmark itself.
  • Scott_xP said:

    Listening to a Tory MP on Today going on and on about growth. Growth growth growth. The biggest growth spurt the UK economy could have js by rejoining the EU and the single market. He hasn’t been asked about this yet.
    https://twitter.com/Baddiel/status/1573210349842702336

    William Keegan calls leaving the SM a massive "anti-growth" measure.

    That's because it is. For people and businesses, it's blooming obvious that having the same, fairly stable, rules across a market of 500 million will allow for efficiency that outwieghs the reality that some individuals and businesses find some of those rules inconvenient.

    But that was going to be fine because nobody would really notice economic growth that just never happened, it was worth it for other reasons, GDP didn't really mean anything anyway et cetera. Or we could all become bankers and have huge bonuses. Or Project Fear.
  • Getting up in the dark goes against human nature. Didn't they try this in the 60s and find it was massively unpopular? I suppose that would be a good indication that Truss will go for it.

    Country that invented GMT abandons GMT.
    GMT noon is the sun is at its highest.

    That seems the natural order of things.

    We should stopped tinkering.

    And, if I recall, during my 1970s childhood there was some dicking about with time and moving around an hour.
    True. But so what? There’s an argument for double summer time May through July, when it’s light at 4am and hours of daylight are wasted to sleep.
    If you want to wake up earlier and make use of that sunshine no-one is stopping you. You can change the time on your alarm clock. I do not understand why you'd insist on the government changing all the clocks for you so that you don't have to change your alarm clock from 7 to 6?

    The bonus if you do it yourself is that you can change it by a few minutes each day, make the change gradually, and watch the sunrise day after day.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,534
    edited September 2022
    Jonathan said:

    It will be interesting to see how Labour deals with this nonsense today. Clearly the Kwasi Quasi-Conservatives want to be seen as tax cutting entrepreneurs, free of 12 years of baggage. That can’t happen.

    Serious question (and I agree with your sentiment either way). Do you mean can't happen (it is not possible) or can't be allowed to happen (Labour must not let them adopt that mantle)?
  • I’ve got a strange feeling todays announce is going to be a dogs dinner.

    The markets won’t like it. It’ll make some Tory MPs nervous and they’ll struggle to endorse it.

    Labour will love it

    Increasing numbers of us oppose this government for increasing numbers of reasons. That does not mean that we "love it" - with it being the damage to the economy and to the country. The opposite is true.

    An interesting conundrum for the remaining Lit/Tory rampers. The party now solely exists to shore up the interests of its patrons. Who make their money on the markets of various kinds. Truss and her man-babies insist what they are doing is sound economics. The market responds with "no it isn't".

    Will we now see comments like "we've had enough of markets", or "we can't let city speculators dictate policy" etc? That will go down well...
  • theakestheakes Posts: 930
    Another stonking win for the Tories yesterday at Coventry Sherborne. Swings of this sort and West Lancashire could be a Con gain!!!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    Dynamo seems to be expressing a similar frustration that no one is appreciating Putin's brilliant move in pretendy-declaring bits of Ukraine part of Russia.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1573107219633438721
    There was palpable frustration in the Russian media that many in the West misunderstood what Putin said⁠—he was threatening the West, not Ukraine, with nuclear strikes. And so, droves of propagandists have been sent out to tell the West: push us into a corner and everybody dies.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The pound is down against the dollar again this morning. Now below $1.12.
    Bloomberg’s trade and fx-weighted index of sterling’s strength is down to the lowest level EVER👇
    Quite the backdrop for today’s fiscal statement…
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573216053412372480/photo/1

    USD parity next year.
    Or sooner?
    3.30pm this afternoon???
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,803
    I really struggle to get up on days when it's not light until 8. When we only have 8 hours of daylight, I would much rather have the light in the mornings thanthe evenings. I will be annoyed if we abandon GMT in tge winter.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    Personally, I am in favour of a second Reformation.

    The question is the method of execution - burning seems not very appropriate, some how...

    Drowning in a vat of weak tea?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The pound has dropped to its weakest point since 1985 as Kwasi Kwarteng prepares to announce his mini (maxi) budget. The @FT's live reporting and analysis is here: https://www.ft.com/content/5cd01b3e-80c9-4f94-8b24-67fe00c19936 https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1573222829499219968/photo/1
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Scott_xP said:

    The pound has dropped to its weakest point since 1985 as Kwasi Kwarteng prepares to announce his mini (maxi) budget. The @FT's live reporting and analysis is here: https://www.ft.com/content/5cd01b3e-80c9-4f94-8b24-67fe00c19936 https://twitter.com/janinegibson/status/1573222829499219968/photo/1

    Think it's low at the moment - wait until we see the actual announcement - I suspect it will be lower at 11...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    edited September 2022
    Edit: seems like a hoax, given the follow-up tweet.

    "The Russian Embassy would like to invite all those interested in acquiring Russian citizenship to attend the Russian Embassy in London. After one year's service in the special military operation citizenship will be granted on an expedited basis"

    https://twitter.com/RussianEmbussy/status/1573007347563331584
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.

    A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.

    The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.

    Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?

    But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good
    He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.

    He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.

    And there is more to come.

    Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning
    FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.

    Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.
    One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.
    Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?
    Not downplayed, just put into perspective. The concern amongst the military apparently is that politicians will see the use of battlefield nukes as being indicative of the Russians being willing to use the ICBMs so they are keen to ensure it is clear to politicians that there is a big distinction in Russian minds between the use of tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals. They are not trying to limit the western response, just put the Russian use into context.
    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,215
    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    tlg86 said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    This is like that Simpson's episode when Lisa goes bad so Bart decides to go good. Of course, it doesn't work like that, so I am a incredulous at the left moaning about Tory profligacy.
    You may or may not have noticed but I am as dry as dust on debt and deficit.

    I think we should run a balanced budget and fund services from current taxation, over a very short cycle. If that requires tax rises then OK.
    And yet you may be shortly retiring due to the pensions issue, which is about paying more tax.

    More tax is always good if someone else is paying it.
    No, I maxed out on the lifetime allowance already, so have withdrawn from NHS Superannuation a couple of years back therefore unaffected by the recent issues. Taxation isn't affecting my retirement plans, though may well be so for many colleagues. I plan to work another decade, albeit part time shortly.
    That's interesting - was the option to withdraw from the DB scheme given to all staff - and were those that did compensated in a different form?
    Yes, anyone can opt out at any time. It gave me a 14.5% payrise by no longer paying into the NHS pension. Certain benefits are lost, such as death in service and retirement due to ill health, so I covered those with insurance outside the scheme.

    I wouldn't advise anyone else to do so, it is likely to not suit their circumstances.
    I agree. 14.5% is nowhere near enough to compensate for exiting the DB scheme. Plus it's taxable of course.

    I wasn't having a dig earlier about Leicester City BTW - I genuinely wondered whether you thought the current 2/1 on them to go down is an accurate assessment of the chances.
  • Leon said:

    Leon said:

    TimS said:

    A number of consistent stories on social media that Russia is actually pushing forward with something more like full mobilisation in the rural and ethnic minority areas while going gently on Moscow and St Petersburg. Confirmed by the Russian I interviewed earlier today who told me he didn't expect to be called up as he is in Moscow and has a long term injury.

    A form of ethnic cleansing? White Russians like other ethno-nationalists around Europe fear being outbred by minorities in their borders. Sending the young menfolk in to be slaughtered in Ukraine is a handy way of stemming the tide while achieving geopolitical and domestic political aims.

    The republics of the South and Far East need to wake up to what's being done and seize back their independence. If Chechnya has another go it might find it has more support from outside than last time. There may never be a better opportunity.

    Indeed. If you're a young man in Yakutia or Dagestan you're thinking: Why the Fuck should I die for Putin?

    But this is obviously the risk of Full Mobilisation, and Putin must know this, which makes me think he is much more frightened and paranoid then we realise. Which is not good
    He is definitely frightened because everything he has touched in last 12 months has turned to absolute shit and he knows it. As do the elite around him.

    He has pulled off one of the greatest military disasters in decades if not hundreds of years.

    And there is more to come.

    Yes, I'm worried about Putin because he is losing, calamitously, not because he is winning
    FWIW, as a wild prediction, I think he will use a tactical nuke in desperation to try and scare the West away from Ukraine and then a NATO rain of absolute airforce fire will wipe out so much of the command structure, senior officers locations and general staff and comms in the field that the elite will remove him from office before it gets worse.

    Might be my normalcy bias but I can’t see Russia using the first nuclear weapon in war since 1945. I still believe there are enough sensible people involved in the chain of command.
    One of my closest friends used to run the situation room for Middle East and Afghanistan at NATO headquarters outside Brussels. British military planners are taught that the Russians see the use of tactical nukes as nothing more than a heavier form of artillery on their side whilst being aware of their potential to paralyse and disorient NATO and the West. Or at least the politicians in the West. One of the main jobs of the NATO planners and senior leaders in the event of the Russians using nukes on the battlefield is to put it into perspective for Western political leaders and stop them doing something stupid.
    Just clarifying, but is the perspective that use of small nukes should be downplayed and no big deal made of it?
    Not downplayed, just put into perspective. The concern amongst the military apparently is that politicians will see the use of battlefield nukes as being indicative of the Russians being willing to use the ICBMs so they are keen to ensure it is clear to politicians that there is a big distinction in Russian minds between the use of tactical and strategic nuclear arsenals. They are not trying to limit the western response, just put the Russian use into context.
    Given that the Americans are the only ones in NATO with non-ballistic missile delivered nukes (the gravity bombs) responding to a Russian tac nuke without going strategic is... interesting...
    Not really. That is exactly the point. There are many non nuclear options. Russian use of battlefield nukes could be met with active NATO participation in Ukraine for example.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191

    Scott_xP said:

    The pound is down against the dollar again this morning. Now below $1.12.
    Bloomberg’s trade and fx-weighted index of sterling’s strength is down to the lowest level EVER👇
    Quite the backdrop for today’s fiscal statement…
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573216053412372480/photo/1

    USD parity next year.
    Or sooner?
    3.30pm this afternoon???
    When Barty is picking his kids up from nursery.
  • Scott_xP said:

    The pound is down against the dollar again this morning. Now below $1.12.
    Bloomberg’s trade and fx-weighted index of sterling’s strength is down to the lowest level EVER👇
    Quite the backdrop for today’s fiscal statement…
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1573216053412372480/photo/1

    Euro is below 98 cents. A better measure of how Sterling is doing would be to compare against the Euro. Up a little on the week, down nearly 4 Euro cents on the month, down two and a half cents on the year.

    So generally Sterling is weakening against the Euro, after a period of strengthening, but the greater weakness against the dollar is a function of the dollar's strength at a time when there is a flight to safety and the world's reserve currency.
  • Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    moonshine said:

    I am fully behind year round daylight savings. It is nuts that this hasn't been done before.

    First Tory policy for a long time that has my full support.

    Feels like an issue which needs to be devolved. Sure, makes sense at southerly latitudes. But at northerly ones? Would literally kill people.
    Personally I think moving our timezone permanently to GMT+1 is a very silly idea.

    But the people on both sides of the debate get far too hyperbolic. There's no reason why schools need to start at 8:40, they could start at 7:40 or 9:40 instead.
    Pray tell how a working parent is supposed to drop off smaller kids at 9.40am.

    There's no reason workplaces can't operate from 8-4 or 10-6.
    There is a reason - so many employers are the ban hammer word. As you're proposing a liberalisation of practices so different things can do their own thing, instead of "just start earlier" we get anarchy. These schools start earlier than those schools in the same town. Employers don't change hours because why should they, and it becomes a big mess.
    You do realise don't you that year-round "summer time" is something the European Union has voted for by QMV and is mandating for all countries. I'm surprised if Britain post-Brexit is continuing with it, its an area where I think it absolutely should not be determined on an EU level, and one I'd happily see post-Brexit Britain diverge from.

    But if the Scottish Government said that they were eg operating schools from 9:40 - 4:30 instead of 8:40 - 3:30 and they were recommending businesses to operate from 10 - 6 instead of 9 - 5 (or adjust times if its the other way around) then that wouldn't be anarchy. Lots of businesses operate on a basis of 'the done thing' and especially what schools are doing, and those that are would adopt the new recommended hours instead of sticking with the old 'done thing'.
    If that happened surely there would be huge howls from the Unionists about the SNP breaking up Britain by making Scotland work to different hours. Which is probably a deliberate feature in the Tories' minds.
    Education is a devolved matter.

    Hollywood's guidance is a devolved matter.

    The SNP could use its existing powers to try to make things better, but it's easier to rail against Westminster instead.
    I'm sure the US film industry have nothing to do with UKG policy.

    The point I am making is that it is the *Unionists* who will rail against Edinburgh if Edinburgh does anything differently. But then they always do.
    I typed Hollyrood but autocorrect must have changed it.

    Since when has the SNP cared what "Unionists" do or don't think?

    The Scottish Government should do whatever it thinks is best for Scotland, under its existing powers. If the Unionists want to make decisions, they should win the election to Hollyrood, they haven't so let the Scottish Government take responsibility for its own actions or inactions.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Kwasi Kwarteng will put 38 low tax, low regulation 'Investment Zones' at heart of economic policy. They follow 12 low tax, low regulation Freeports (2019) 48 low tax, low reg Enterprise Zones (2012), 38 Local Enterprise Partnerships (2010) & 9 Regional Development Agencies (1998)
    https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1573223718742016002

    Anna Jones: "You said 'it was simply irresponsible for us to whack it all on our debt'. Are you now being irresponsible?"

    Simon Clarke: "No, because now we're going for growth."

    [NARRATOR: Todays "New Plan for Growth" is the seventh "New Plan for Growth" in ten years. ~AA]


    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1573220801868083201/video/1
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,159

    Mr. Observer, you must lament that Labour's policy of borrowing billions would fling half of it at the better off.

    As an aside, I (sadly) must agree that this borrowing addiction has now fully infected both sides of the political divide. It's wretched, heaping costs upon tomorrow for sweeties today.

    The energy price cap has to be universal so that it can be implemented as quickly as possible, and no-one falls through the cracks. But it certainly helps the better off and so makes any tax cuts that will benefit them disproportionately even harder to justify.

    Borrowing to improve public services and infrastructure is not about sweeties, it's about creating a solid basis on which sustainable growth can be built.
    The only way Brexit has a point is if we do big things we couldn't have done as EU members - which in practice means lurching to the right or the left. It appears we'll be doing the former first. Shame there isn't a mandate for it. Traditionally you'd first win an election on this platform and then implement it. It's the other way round here. So whilst I don't doubt the ideological commitment to the facile creed of trickledown theory, I think the driver is more cynical. They're hoping the short-term boost from throwing borrowed money all over the shop will essentially buy the election. By the time the shit hits the fan they'll have secured another term - is the plan.
  • Mr. Pioneers, Spike was my favourite character.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I-8DIjgIpfI
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270
    Carnyx said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    Quite. The C of E has been the ideological arm of the English State since 1530-wotsit. Yet it's not implementing the state directives about gay marriage. What's the point of an ideological arm if it goes its own way?
    You haven't encountered the DfE, the Treasury etc? They all have institutional policies that having nothing to do with what the government wants. Indeed, they often justify this by saying they are implementing "proper government".

    During COVID, on occasion, ministers said do X. Sometimes, the civil servants did Y. The direct opposite of written instructions.

    Apparently, the civil servants involved are appalled that at the coming enquiries, ministers will not take responsibility for their departments doing Y and will instead produce the written instructions to do X.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,063
    edited September 2022
    Good morning

    Today is huge as Truss throws the dice which will either win her 2024 or see the conservatives out of office for years

    I really do not know how this ends but I do expect Truss to take on Starmer in 2024
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Mark Fullbrook, PM’s chief of staff, addressed Tory MPs at No 10 last night.

    Doesn’t sound quite like he won hearts and minds…

    One casualty of the reshuffle describes it as a “lecture from Mark Fullbrook mostly about Mark Fullbrook”


    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1573224189473226752
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,173
    edited September 2022
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    At the moment only a minority of Christian denominations allow homosexual marriage, Lutherans, Methodists and some branches of the Anglican communion like the US Episcopal Church she was a member of. Personally I would each individual priest to make up their own mind on whether to allow it or not in the Church of England but we are not there yet.

    Of course Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis do not perform gay marriages either
    But "Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis" are not paid employees of the C of E whose entire reason for existence is to be the Established Church of the (mostly) English state which absolutely permits gay marriage.
    >I would each individual priest to make up their own mind

    The problem with that is that it is a localised version of what we have in this case.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth lost her priesthood in S/A as the Anglican Church of Southern Africa does not recognise the Gay Marriage she entered. Then she went to the USA, where ECUSA does recognise it.

    In these circs the CofE does not recognise her right to officiate.

    If it were made a matter for the individual priest, then you would have the same thing at a local level - Priest X does a Gay Wedding Ceremony, but would that then be binding on Priest Y from a parish 10 miles away who does not believe in gay weddings?

    That's why a level of discipline is necessary; if there is not then unity (at whatever level) becomes very difficult or impossible.

    Observe, for example, the split in the USA Anglican church, where the centre has spent tens of millions of dollars on legal actions against their own congregations, mainly to prevent them keeping their parish property (eg church building) when they leave the USA church.
    on various grounds, in a story worse than Jarndyce vs Jarndyce.

    Plus consequences - if a minority church in say Pakistan or Eqypt adopted a full-blown USA position on gay marriage, then that has implications for community relations. It's not easy if something done in London or Washington is cited as the reason for bombs being planted in churches in another country by eg Islamists.

    ECUSA moved unilaterally on the question, which caused havoc for many years - and split their own church.

    Personally I think it's time for the CofE to move further, which view I draw from observing friends who's views have adjusted from anti-gat-marriage to pro-gay-marriage over a period of years. It will happen, but it will need very careful diplomacy / politics.

    As an aside, how does asserting that a Western view be imposed worldwide fit in an analysis around imperialism?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Edit: seems like a hoax, given the follow-up tweet.

    "The Russian Embassy would like to invite all those interested in acquiring Russian citizenship to attend the Russian Embassy in London. After one year's service in the special military operation citizenship will be granted on an expedited basis"

    https://twitter.com/RussianEmbussy/status/1573007347563331584

    Check the URL... RussianEmbussy
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397

    Carnyx said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    Quite. The C of E has been the ideological arm of the English State since 1530-wotsit. Yet it's not implementing the state directives about gay marriage. What's the point of an ideological arm if it goes its own way?
    You haven't encountered the DfE, the Treasury etc? They all have institutional policies that having nothing to do with what the government wants. Indeed, they often justify this by saying they are implementing "proper government".

    During COVID, on occasion, ministers said do X. Sometimes, the civil servants did Y. The direct opposite of written instructions.

    Apparently, the civil servants involved are appalled that at the coming enquiries, ministers will not take responsibility for their departments doing Y and will instead produce the written instructions to do X.
    If I am forced to choose between watching Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb or Susan Acland-Hood and Amanda Spielman get it for incompetence, dishonesty, law breaking and damaging schools...

    ...I think I might actually suffer an implosion event.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Nigelb said:

    And in the unlikely event that we give in to the threat of 'give us what we want or well incinerate the planet', then what about next time.
    And the time after. And the time after that.

    Worked for FDR against Japan.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Good morning

    Today is huge as Truss throws the dice which will either win her 2024 or see the conservatives out of office for years

    I really do not know how this ends but I do expect Truss to take on Starmer in 2024

    In tears and probably with us heading towards the IMF....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Coventry City 4-1 for relegation. Home games in hand but.... 3 points from our first 7 games makes the Skybet odds look OK I think.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    And in the unlikely event that we give in to the threat of 'give us what we want or well incinerate the planet', then what about next time.
    And the time after. And the time after that.

    Worked for FDR against Japan.
    Truman surely?
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005

    Nigelb said:

    Dynamo seems to be expressing a similar frustration that no one is appreciating Putin's brilliant move in pretendy-declaring bits of Ukraine part of Russia.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1573107219633438721
    There was palpable frustration in the Russian media that many in the West misunderstood what Putin said⁠—he was threatening the West, not Ukraine, with nuclear strikes. And so, droves of propagandists have been sent out to tell the West: push us into a corner and everybody dies.

    An interesting clip. It rather highlights the importance of language - what is said, and what is heard.

    The presenter kept saying we want to "defeat Russia" and I have heard people very strongly say so on here. What does that mean? Defeat them with regards to their invasion of Ukraine? Yes, most of the west wants that. But that isn't the "defeat Russia" she talks of where the state - or at least the Putin version of the state - is militarily defeated in a general war. Very few are proposing NATO cross the Polish and Romanian borders and start invading the Rodina.

    So yes, we heard the threat about nukes. We already understand that. But we also understand the nuance here. "Destroy Russia" and we will also be destroyed. That has been reality since the mid 1960s. We aren't proposing that - and going off the Russian stuff I have seen, neither have they.

    To quote Spike in Buffy the Vampire Slayer:
    "We like to talk big, vampires do. "I'm going to destroy the world." It's just tough-guy talk. Struttin' around with your friends over a pint of blood. The truth is, I *like* this world. You've got... dog racing, Manchester United... and you've got people. Billions of people walking around like Happy Meals with legs. It's all right here... But then, someone comes along with a vision. With a real... passion for destruction... Goodbye Piccadilly, farewell Leicester bloody Square. You know what I'm saying?"
    Serious kudos for the very relevant quote from BTVS.
  • Interesting that the Special Fiscal Event is so early today. Means that there is more time for the details to be analysed before the evening news and tomorrow's headlines.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270
    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Stocky said:

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    This, a million times.

    When you listen to the Chancellor today, try to imagine how the Conservative Party would react if - with debt and interest payments at their current level - a Labour government announced a package of tax cuts targeted at *its* core vote paid for by a big increase in borrowing...

    Labour inflation bad, Tory inflation good!

    Labour deficit bad, Tory deficit good!
    Mrs Thatcher will be spinning in her grave.
    How that NI cut works out:



    Suits me!

    As long as you spend it. Will you spend it?

    Giving extra to poorer people does a better job boosting the economy through their higher propensity to consume?
    It only partly makes up for my real terms pay cut of 7%, so in real terms I shall spend less than last year.
    I suspect that most people out there are getting a real terms pay cut of more than you are.
    Isn't the current sitrep that private sector employers are having to keep pay at least on the same planet as inflation?

    It's the government who are being stingy a) because they think they can and b) their numbers don't add up if they pay to fill all the vacancies in schools'n'hospitals.
    I think the opposite. I know no-one in the private sector who has had a significant pay rise - many haven't had one at all - and look askance at the increases in the public sector. This may be a unrepresentative sample I know - which is why I ask here.
    That experience doesn't match ONS figures, though there may well be a lag in those.
    These days, the way people in higher paying white collar job get pay rises, is changing jobs.

    It is somewhat bizarre that organisations find it easier to let people go and replace them with higher paid staff, than to try and keep them.

    The same often goes for promotion.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    Quite. The C of E has been the ideological arm of the English State since 1530-wotsit. Yet it's not implementing the state directives about gay marriage. What's the point of an ideological arm if it goes its own way?
    You haven't encountered the DfE, the Treasury etc? They all have institutional policies that having nothing to do with what the government wants. Indeed, they often justify this by saying they are implementing "proper government".

    During COVID, on occasion, ministers said do X. Sometimes, the civil servants did Y. The direct opposite of written instructions.

    Apparently, the civil servants involved are appalled that at the coming enquiries, ministers will not take responsibility for their departments doing Y and will instead produce the written instructions to do X.
    If I am forced to choose between watching Gavin Williamson and Nick Gibb or Susan Acland-Hood and Amanda Spielman get it for incompetence, dishonesty, law breaking and damaging schools...

    ...I think I might actually suffer an implosion event.
    Why can't they all lose?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,969
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    At the moment only a minority of Christian denominations allow homosexual marriage, Lutherans, Methodists and some branches of the Anglican communion like the US Episcopal Church she was a member of. Personally I would each individual priest to make up their own mind on whether to allow it or not in the Church of England but we are not there yet.

    Of course Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis do not perform gay marriages either
    But "Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis" are not paid employees of the C of E whose entire reason for existence is to be the Established Church of the (mostly) English state which absolutely permits gay marriage.
    >I would each individual priest to make up their own mind

    The problem with that is that it is a localised version of what we have in this case.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth lost her priesthood in S/A as the Anglican Church of Southern Africa does not recognise the Gay Marriage she entered. Then she went to the USA, where ECUSA does recognise it.

    In these circs the CofE does not recognise her right to officiate.

    If it were made a matter for the individual priest, then you would have the same thing at a local level - Priest X does a Gay Wedding Ceremony, but would that then be binding on Priest Y from a parish 10 miles away who does not believe in gay weddings?

    That's why a level of discipline is necessary; if there is not then unity (at whatever level) becomes very difficult or impossible.

    Observe, for example, the split in the USA Anglican church, where the centre has spent tens of millions of dollars on legal actions against their own congregations, mainly to prevent them keeping their parish property (eg church building) when they leave the USA church.
    on various grounds, in a story worse than Jarndyce vs Jarndyce.

    Plus consequences - if a minority church in say Pakistan or Eqypt adopted a full-blown USA position on gay marriage, then that has implications for community relations. It's not easy if something done in London or Washington is cited as the reason for bombs being planted in churches in another country by eg Islamists.

    ECUSA moved unilaterally on the question, which caused havoc for many years - and split their own church.

    Personally I think it's time for the CofE to move further, which view I draw from observing friends who's views have adjusted from anti-gat-marriage to pro-gay-marriage over a period of years. It will happen, but it will need very careful diplomacy / politics.

    As an aside, how does asserting that a Western view be imposed worldwide fit in an analysis around imperialism?
    That is what the Church of England already does to some extent over women priests, leaves it to individual parishes and dioceses to decide. Eg while most dioceses have women priests the Bishop of Maidstone leads Church of England churches that don't
  • Scott_xP said:

    Mark Fullbrook, PM’s chief of staff, addressed Tory MPs at No 10 last night.

    Doesn’t sound quite like he won hearts and minds…

    One casualty of the reshuffle describes it as a “lecture from Mark Fullbrook mostly about Mark Fullbrook”


    https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1573224189473226752

    Backbencher who presumably wasn't on board with policy, isn't keen on policy?

    Oh well, too bad, so sad. Should have won the leadership election then, which literally debated this policy and determined the result.

    Backing the government on matters of confidence and supply is a condition of holding the whip, so if anyone objects strenuously they know what they need to do.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,397
    edited September 2022
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    At the moment only a minority of Christian denominations allow homosexual marriage, Lutherans, Methodists and some branches of the Anglican communion like the US Episcopal Church she was a member of. Personally I would each individual priest to make up their own mind on whether to allow it or not in the Church of England but we are not there yet.

    Of course Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis do not perform gay marriages either
    But "Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis" are not paid employees of the C of E whose entire reason for existence is to be the Established Church of the (mostly) English state which absolutely permits gay marriage.
    >I would each individual priest to make up their own mind

    The problem with that is that it is a localised version of what we have in this case.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth lost her priesthood in S/A as the Anglican Church of Southern Africa does not recognise the Gay Marriage she entered. Then she went to the USA, where ECUSA does recognise it.

    In these circs the CofE does not recognise her right to officiate.

    If it were made a matter for the individual priest, then you would have the same thing at a local level - Priest X does a Gay Wedding Ceremony, but would that then be binding on Priest Y from a parish 10 miles away who does not believe in gay weddings?

    That's why a level of discipline is necessary; if there is not then unity (at whatever level) becomes very difficult or impossible.

    Observe, for example, the split in the USA Anglican church, where the centre has spent tens of millions of dollars on legal actions against their own congregations, mainly to prevent them keeping their parish property (eg church building) when they leave the USA church.
    on various grounds, in a story worse than Jarndyce vs Jarndyce.

    Plus consequences - if a minority church in say Pakistan or Eqypt adopted a full-blown USA position on gay marriage, then that has implications for community relations. It's not easy if something done in London or Washington is cited as the reason for bombs being planted in churches in another country by eg Islamists.

    ECUSA moved unilaterally on the question, which caused havoc for many years - and split their own church.

    Personally I think it's time for the CofE to move further, which view I draw from observing friends who's views have adjusted from anti-gat-marriage to pro-gay-marriage over a period of years. It will happen, but it will need very careful diplomacy / politics.

    As an aside, how does asserting that a Western view be imposed worldwide fit in an analysis around imperialism?
    I think there is probably more to this story than is being let on by the media, because there is at least one very senior openly gay clergyman in Hereford Diocese. Moreover, he is in a civil partnership.

    It may be as simple as she doesn't have a licence to officiate and they're not willing to grant one as she's not currently in recognised orders.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    .

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    And in the unlikely event that we give in to the threat of 'give us what we want or well incinerate the planet', then what about next time.
    And the time after. And the time after that.

    Worked for FDR against Japan.
    Truman surely?
    Truman had the capacity to incinerate the planet ?
    News to me.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,789
    HYUFD said:

    This is the church King Charles III is the head of.

    He needs to speak out against this blatant homophobia or he is just an enabler of homophobia.

    The late Desmond Tutu's daughter has been barred by the Church of England from leading a funeral because she is married to a woman.

    Mpho Tutu van Furth is an Anglican priest in the Diocese of Washington DC and had been asked to officiate at the funeral of her late-godfather, Martin Kenyon, in Shropshire on Thursday.

    Ms Tutu van Furth told BBC News it "seemed really churlish and hurtful".

    The Diocese of Hereford said it was "a difficult situation".


    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-63003282

    At the moment only a minority of Christian denominations allow homosexual marriage, Lutherans, Methodists and some branches of the Anglican communion like the US Episcopal Church she was a member of. Personally I would each individual priest to make up their own mind on whether to allow it or not in the Church of England but we are not there yet.

    Of course Roman Catholics, virtually all Baptist and Pentecostal churches, Muslim imams and Jewish rabbis do not perform gay marriages either
    As an atheist I feel this is none of my business and I respect your position and the position of other sects to decide what they like. However there is an issue with the CofE being the established church which is a conflict of interest.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,270
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:

    And in the unlikely event that we give in to the threat of 'give us what we want or well incinerate the planet', then what about next time.
    And the time after. And the time after that.

    Worked for FDR against Japan.
    What about we try this with Russia - "We want free gas. Forever. Or we nuke you, for spite and LOLs"?

    Not just Russia - any bit of the world where we fancy their stuff.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,073
    In Buratiya, male uni students are being taken straight out of classes. Some schools have closed and turned into enlistment offices. Men are being rounded up and conscripted from small villages.

    This will all look *very* different in Russia's ethnic republics than in Moscow.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/ichbinilya/status/1572921782805340163
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