The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Mrs DA's review of it was that it was "very white". Lol. The Ukrainians were semi-baffled, possibly thinking it was something to do with Harry Potter.
There was some Potter vibe. I think almost everyone felt that at certain points.
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Mrs DA's review of it was that it was "very white". Lol. The Ukrainians were semi-baffled, possibly thinking it was something to do with Harry Potter.
There was some Potter vibe. I think almost everyone felt that at certain points.
Harry Potter borrowed/pastiched large chunks of UK history and culture as its backdrop. So strangely......
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
You're the one hopecasting as you love to make fears and aspirations of global doom beyond everyone else.
Russia already tried the dodgy referendum trick over Crimea, it didn't work, the rest of the world still recognises Crimea as Ukraine. While the USA has tied one hand behind Ukraine's back when it comes to striking Russia, they've not done so with regards to striking Crimea, because Crimea isn't Russian. Hence why Crimea has been repeatedly struck with missiles and why the Russian fleet has had to retreat out of Crimea.
If the dodgy referendum and eight years of "annexation" hasn't made Crimea "Russian", then Luhansk and Donetsk aren't going to be either.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
"Full mobilization" theoretically gets them more men but not much else. Their finances are still screwed, they don't get any more tanks, they still don't have the semi-conductors and other supplies to build more. Plus any chance of further supplies from China will dry up if they use nukes.
And the men come from conscription which only really applies to the big Western cities as they have already been forcing every young man from the provinces to turn up. And that conscription will not go down well among the Russian middle class who will revolt. It would accelerate the end of Putin.
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Mrs DA's review of it was that it was "very white". Lol. The Ukrainians were semi-baffled, possibly thinking it was something to do with Harry Potter.
There was some Potter vibe. I think almost everyone felt that at certain points.
The funeral was the majesty, magic and pomp of the royals & crown on full display. A whopping great advert for British tourism. And it was flawless.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Presumably Western intelligence would pretty quickly pick up movements of propulsion systems suitable for tactical battlefield nukes. I could see them being dusted down and wheeled in the direction of the border to put the shits up everyone. Let's keep an eye out.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainian forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
No, Russia is claiming that "Russia" is being invaded whilst the rest of the world says "Fuck off are they..."
They could have held these "referenda" months ago. When they actually held all the territory. If it is really Russia, then use Russian troops to expel them. But that's the point. They can't. They are being pushed backwards. And where they are pushed out, people come and offer the liberating troops hugs and kisses and watermelons.
Argentina could have shipped all the Bennies off to Buenos Aires and asked the sheep if they were now happily Argentinian. And what, the Brits should have accepted that and Task Force should have turned round?
Everyone knows the referenda will not be free and fair. They will rightly be ignored.
"The UK is weighing up whether to attend a new European political "club of nations" next month.
The first meeting of the "European Political Community" is due to be held in Prague in early October.
Downing Street wants to see more detail on the summit before Prime Minister Liz Truss commits to attending it and no final decision has been made."
It has Europe in the name so no 10 will turn down the invitation . And Truss is a puppet of the ERG who will implode if she dared attend anything that looked like co-operating with EU countries .
The main issue is that it would continue the situation of a dominant inner circle that can force the outer circle into compliance. If a new broader forum is needed, it should include Canada and the US so no bloc has a majority of votes.
If its anything that includes "votes" or binding decision making powers at all, then the UK shouldn't take part.
If its another talking shop like G7, then sure, why not?
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
You're the one hopecasting as you love to make fears and aspirations of global doom beyond everyone else.
Russia already tried the dodgy referendum trick over Crimea, it didn't work, the rest of the world still recognises Crimea as Ukraine. While the USA has tied one hand behind Ukraine's back when it comes to striking Russia, they've not done so with regards to striking Crimea, because Crimea isn't Russian. Hence why Crimea has been repeatedly struck with missiles and why the Russian fleet has had to retreat out of Crimea.
If the dodgy referendum and eight years of "annexation" hasn't made Crimea "Russian", then Luhansk and Donetsk aren't going to be either.
I'm just saying what I see. Putin's options are narrowing dramatically, unfortunately, nukes are still one of those options
"It also signals that Putin realizes that losing this war would pose a significant domestic threat to his rule. What is the bigger risk for him: mobilization, use of tactical nuclear weapons, or losing the Donbas and other occupied areas of Ukraine?"
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Mrs DA's review of it was that it was "very white". Lol. The Ukrainians were semi-baffled, possibly thinking it was something to do with Harry Potter.
There was some Potter vibe. I think almost everyone felt that at certain points.
The funeral was the majesty, magic and pomp of the royals & crown on full display. A whopping great advert for British tourism. And it was flawless.
As HMQs private chapel is now full, will Charles build a new one for himself?
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
"Full mobilization" theoretically gets them more men but not much else. Their finances are still screwed, they don't get any more tanks, they still don't have the semi-conductors and other supplies to build more. Plus any chance of further supplies from China will dry up if they use nukes.
And the men come from conscription which only really applies to the big Western cities as they have already been forcing every young man from the provinces to turn up. And that conscription will not go down well among the Russian middle class who will revolt. It would accelerate the end of Putin.
For some reason I am reminded of the gaming of Operation Sealion at Sandhurst way back.
After one game, the chap playing Herman Goering was asked what the hell he’d been doing. He answered that he’d been playing the character true to life - as in winning the game of top trumps in the Nazi hierarchy, rather than get tagged with the failure of a hopeless invasion.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
You're the one hopecasting as you love to make fears and aspirations of global doom beyond everyone else.
Russia already tried the dodgy referendum trick over Crimea, it didn't work, the rest of the world still recognises Crimea as Ukraine. While the USA has tied one hand behind Ukraine's back when it comes to striking Russia, they've not done so with regards to striking Crimea, because Crimea isn't Russian. Hence why Crimea has been repeatedly struck with missiles and why the Russian fleet has had to retreat out of Crimea.
If the dodgy referendum and eight years of "annexation" hasn't made Crimea "Russian", then Luhansk and Donetsk aren't going to be either.
I'm just saying what I see. Putin's options are narrowing dramatically, unfortunately, nukes are still one of those options
"It also signals that Putin realizes that losing this war would pose a significant domestic threat to his rule. What is the bigger risk for him: mobilization, use of tactical nuclear weapons, or losing the Donbas and other occupied areas of Ukraine?"
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainian forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
No, Russia is claiming that "Russia" is being invaded whilst the rest of the world says "Fuck off are they..."
They could have held these "referenda" months ago. When they actually held all the territory. If it is really Russia, then use Russian troops to expel them. But that's the point. They can't. They are being pushed backwards. And where they are pushed out, people come and offer the liberating troops hugs and kisses and watermelons.
Argentina could have shipped all the Bennies off to Buenos Aires and asked the sheep if they were now happily Argentinian. And what, the Brits should have accepted that and Task Force should have turned round?
Everyone knows the referenda will not be free and fair. They will rightly be ignored.
They are doing this all now precisely because they have to. They are desperate. They are losing
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
You're the one hopecasting as you love to make fears and aspirations of global doom beyond everyone else.
Russia already tried the dodgy referendum trick over Crimea, it didn't work, the rest of the world still recognises Crimea as Ukraine. While the USA has tied one hand behind Ukraine's back when it comes to striking Russia, they've not done so with regards to striking Crimea, because Crimea isn't Russian. Hence why Crimea has been repeatedly struck with missiles and why the Russian fleet has had to retreat out of Crimea.
If the dodgy referendum and eight years of "annexation" hasn't made Crimea "Russian", then Luhansk and Donetsk aren't going to be either.
I'm just saying what I see. Putin's options are narrowing dramatically, unfortunately, nukes are still one of those options
"It also signals that Putin realizes that losing this war would pose a significant domestic threat to his rule. What is the bigger risk for him: mobilization, use of tactical nuclear weapons, or losing the Donbas and other occupied areas of Ukraine?"
Comments beneath that thread say he might go biological or chemical. I don't believe that works for him, but who knows. He needs a total game changer
He's lost. He needs to go out of a window.
Lose the war and he may lose power and his life. Use nukes and every Russian loses their families.
Its just fearmongering by those who couldn't understand or foresee that Russia would lose this war. I've been saying it for months, Russia is more fucked than a dockyard hooker on a Pornhub casting couch with her stepson.
The whole point of “referenda”, is to declare territorial control.
The enemy wants to say, mostly to a domestic audience, that “Ukraine is invading Russia”, and use that as justification for an upgrade of the conflict.
He's listed as the only runner but you'll get paid if anyone else wins in Russia in 2024. My personal view is the Even money on Putin to win in 2024 in Russia is excellent value.
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Mrs DA's review of it was that it was "very white". Lol. The Ukrainians were semi-baffled, possibly thinking it was something to do with Harry Potter.
There was some Potter vibe. I think almost everyone felt that at certain points.
Harry Potter borrowed/pastiched large chunks of UK history and culture as its backdrop. So strangely......
Yes, Potter was the cover not the original.
Then again, I gather much of what looked ancient about yesterday's spectacle was invented quite recently.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
You're the one hopecasting as you love to make fears and aspirations of global doom beyond everyone else.
Russia already tried the dodgy referendum trick over Crimea, it didn't work, the rest of the world still recognises Crimea as Ukraine. While the USA has tied one hand behind Ukraine's back when it comes to striking Russia, they've not done so with regards to striking Crimea, because Crimea isn't Russian. Hence why Crimea has been repeatedly struck with missiles and why the Russian fleet has had to retreat out of Crimea.
If the dodgy referendum and eight years of "annexation" hasn't made Crimea "Russian", then Luhansk and Donetsk aren't going to be either.
I'm just saying what I see. Putin's options are narrowing dramatically, unfortunately, nukes are still one of those options
"It also signals that Putin realizes that losing this war would pose a significant domestic threat to his rule. What is the bigger risk for him: mobilization, use of tactical nuclear weapons, or losing the Donbas and other occupied areas of Ukraine?"
Comments beneath that thread say he might go biological or chemical. I don't believe that works for him, but who knows. He needs a total game changer
He's lost. He needs to go out of a window.
Lose the war and he may lose power and his life. Use nukes and every Russian loses their families.
Its just fearmongering by those who couldn't understand or foresee that Russia would lose this war. I've been saying it for months, Russia is more fucked than a dockyard hooker on a Pornhub casting couch with her stepson.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Presumably Western intelligence would pretty quickly pick up movements of propulsion systems suitable for tactical battlefield nukes. I could see them being dusted down and wheeled in the direction of the border to put the shits up everyone. Let's keep an eye out.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
One of the destabilising features of tactical nukes always was that they were often employed in mixed use systems. So, very often the only difference was the warhead. Which is one of the reasons that the US military wanted rid of them.
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
Although I don't 'like' your post, its perfectly rational.
Back in February I had a quiet thirty minutes to myself when I felt very down. I saw Ukraine didn't lose in the first week, so I rightly hoped they'd hold on.
But then I thought: Either Ukraine WILL lose in the end, which upset me; or Russia loses, but unable to cope with the impending loss, nukes Ukraine.
Yes, its not rational, its not reasonable, but Putin may see his only way out as nukes, and be damned with the consequences. He may yet bet (rightly?) he can nuke a few sites in Ukraine and 'get away with it' and the Western reaction is merely more sanctions. He then 'wins' as Ukraine has to give up, and after twelves months Russia approaches the west and says 'Stop the sanctions, facts on the ground now' and places like Germany fold like a wet paper bag.
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Mrs DA's review of it was that it was "very white". Lol. The Ukrainians were semi-baffled, possibly thinking it was something to do with Harry Potter.
There was some Potter vibe. I think almost everyone felt that at certain points.
Harry Potter borrowed/pastiched large chunks of UK history and culture as its backdrop. So strangely......
Yes, Potter was the cover not the original.
Then again, I gather much of what looked ancient about yesterday's spectacle was invented quite recently.
Yes, it evolves. Bit like ceremonies in other tribes…
Come to think of it, we are moving past some things. No one devoted a column inch to how insulting to the French the bearskins are, for example.
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Mrs DA's review of it was that it was "very white". Lol. The Ukrainians were semi-baffled, possibly thinking it was something to do with Harry Potter.
There was some Potter vibe. I think almost everyone felt that at certain points.
The funeral was the majesty, magic and pomp of the royals & crown on full display. A whopping great advert for British tourism. And it was flawless.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Presumably Western intelligence would pretty quickly pick up movements of propulsion systems suitable for tactical battlefield nukes. I could see them being dusted down and wheeled in the direction of the border to put the shits up everyone. Let's keep an eye out.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
One of the destabilising features of tactical nukes always was that they were often employed in mixed use systems. So, very often the only difference was the warhead. Which is one of the reasons that the US military wanted rid of them.
" One of the destabilising features of tactical nukes always was that they were often employed in mixed use systems. "
Eh ? Have I missed something, have tactical nukes ever been used in anger ?
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Presumably Western intelligence would pretty quickly pick up movements of propulsion systems suitable for tactical battlefield nukes. I could see them being dusted down and wheeled in the direction of the border to put the shits up everyone. Let's keep an eye out.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
One of the most amusing moments of the whole special military operation war so far, at least for me, was the surprise attack on the military airfield in Crimea last month - which was followed with satellite images of the ‘day before’ and ‘day after’, the latter showing the damage to the field and aircraft.
But it’s the first image that will have put the sh1ts up Moscow, the shadows and aircraft positions telling the story that it was from an hour or two at most before the attack, letting the Russian command know for sure that the defenders have access to real-time satellite intelligence, something that not a handful of nations could provide.
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Mrs DA's review of it was that it was "very white". Lol. The Ukrainians were semi-baffled, possibly thinking it was something to do with Harry Potter.
There was some Potter vibe. I think almost everyone felt that at certain points.
The funeral was the majesty, magic and pomp of the royals & crown on full display. A whopping great advert for British tourism. And it was flawless.
As HMQs private chapel is now full, will Charles build a new one for himself?
There are now at least 2 spaces in the Royal Vault.
It's not yet like one of those one-space tile puzzles.
Although I don't think that many locals anywhere like Camper vans - they do seem to attract people unwilling to spend money locally - rather than going to the pub for a drink / meal they seem to go to the Supermarket and then drink cheap booze...
On the subject of Putin and Nukes, one idea that I have heard from a Kremlin troll is that 'the US will set off a nuke in the Donbass and blame it on Russia'.
I think the possible idea is that Russia could set off a nuke and then try and blame it on the US.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
What we need to be able to calculate is the 'natural' maximum capacity of a 4-day lying-in-state event.
It will never be longer due to the need for the funeral, and it was already open 23 hours a day, so the options you have are to remove the cleaning, speed up the guard changes (and lose some of the ceremony) or frogmarch people past it quickly.
Probably 350-400k is the maximum. So I'm not sure how DCMS ever expected a million to get through.
Maybe they thought people wouldn't pause?
Hmmm. Various commentators seem to be forgetting about the 35k (?) in Edinburgh and disabled queue, and the journalists jumping the queue. Though the numbers are in the same range as previous occasions. Perhaps surprising that the the airport type security did not strangle it more. Does Westminster hall have capacity / circulation for two streams and two queues?
The Telegraph has at least one long article doing a top trumps between a number of state funerals.
I'm a little bemused at the 4 day limit. HMXQ is in a lead-lined coffin so it could perhaps be extended - even if they didn't go perma-embalmo like Lenin (who got 100k in 6 weeks!).
They *could* do it like Kilroy-Silk, and do the embalming whilst the subject is still alive.
I'm not the biggest fan of Kilroy-Silk but even I think that's a bit harsh.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Presumably Western intelligence would pretty quickly pick up movements of propulsion systems suitable for tactical battlefield nukes. I could see them being dusted down and wheeled in the direction of the border to put the shits up everyone. Let's keep an eye out.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
One of the destabilising features of tactical nukes always was that they were often employed in mixed use systems. So, very often the only difference was the warhead. Which is one of the reasons that the US military wanted rid of them.
" One of the destabilising features of tactical nukes always was that they were often employed in mixed use systems. "
Eh ? Have I missed something, have tactical nukes ever been used in anger ?
I meant - fitted to weapons that would often have a conventional warhead as another option.
So that cruise missile coming at you - is it a nuke or just a bit rude?
The torpedo in the water - end times or a bad day?
And so on.
In the current case, I think a number of the missiles the Russians have launched at Ukraine have a nuclear option. The anti-surface ship missiles re-purposed for ground attack, for example.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
It's half isn't it? Knock off 0-2 as infancy and start teens at 13
Nah, teens are children. As are babies. 0-18 is children.
Unless the SNP want to give them the vote…
I did say earlier 16 or 18 years - interestingfly, the legal definitions vary [edit5] acc to context/purpose.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainian forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
No, Russia is claiming that "Russia" is being invaded whilst the rest of the world says "Fuck off are they..."
They could have held these "referenda" months ago. When they actually held all the territory. If it is really Russia, then use Russian troops to expel them. But that's the point. They can't. They are being pushed backwards. And where they are pushed out, people come and offer the liberating troops hugs and kisses and watermelons.
Argentina could have shipped all the Bennies off to Buenos Aires and asked the sheep if they were now happily Argentinian. And what, the Brits should have accepted that and Task Force should have turned round?
Everyone knows the referenda will not be free and fair. They will rightly be ignored.
They are doing this all now precisely because they have to. They are desperate. They are losing
That's the point
Russia have already lost. Nothing they can now do constitutes a "win".
If they keep whining "but we are fighting NATO", then they just might end up doing that.
And discover just how good the weapons are they haven't faced yet. There'd be no dressing that up as anything other than having their arses handed to them on a plate.
The real game changer would be China seeing it as the moment to take everything east of the Urals. Their wargaming must keep coming up with the same outcomes: "Piece of piss...." They could use the having-a-laugh excuse that anywhere with a Chinese restaurant is part of China. Pretty much like they own the whole of the China Sea because it has "China" in the name.
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
When Suez happened, I don't recall the world saying that people should go lightly on the UK/France etc because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the French because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened a second time, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the US because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the USSR because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened again, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the US, French & UK because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
Hmmmmm.....
I am sure you are aware that the USA did use nuclear weapons when Japan did not go lightly on them
There are two important distinguishing factors, State.
First, there was every good reason to think the use of the bomb would bring the war to an immediate end and save many lives, mostly of US Serviceman but probably Japanese too.
It was considered to demonstrate that this thing actually worked and just how devastating it could be.
I don't think either consideration applied in the other cases mentioned above.
not sure the second reason is anything other than trying to placate after the event - I mean two were used on different days when one would have been enough for that. The first reason you give is obviously the reason and may have been logical at the time . Russia would have a simalar reason if they were threatened with collapse
The use of the second bomb was not separately authorised by Truman. Which is why the procedure for approval of nuclear use was subsequently tightened up massively, and made 100% subject to civilian (ie Presidential) authority.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
What we need to be able to calculate is the 'natural' maximum capacity of a 4-day lying-in-state event.
It will never be longer due to the need for the funeral, and it was already open 23 hours a day, so the options you have are to remove the cleaning, speed up the guard changes (and lose some of the ceremony) or frogmarch people past it quickly.
Probably 350-400k is the maximum. So I'm not sure how DCMS ever expected a million to get through.
Maybe they thought people wouldn't pause?
Hmmm. Various commentators seem to be forgetting about the 35k (?) in Edinburgh and disabled queue, and the journalists jumping the queue. Though the numbers are in the same range as previous occasions. Perhaps surprising that the the airport type security did not strangle it more. Does Westminster hall have capacity / circulation for two streams and two queues?
The Telegraph has at least one long article doing a top trumps between a number of state funerals.
I'm a little bemused at the 4 day limit. HMXQ is in a lead-lined coffin so it could perhaps be extended - even if they didn't go perma-embalmo like Lenin (who got 100k in 6 weeks!).
They *could* do it like Kilroy-Silk, and do the embalming whilst the subject is still alive.
I'm not the biggest fan of Kilroy-Silk but even I think that's a bit harsh.
Indeed. No way is he still alive, looking like that.
On the subject of Putin and Nukes, one idea that I have heard from a Kremlin troll is that 'the US will set off a nuke in the Donbass and blame it on Russia'.
I think the possible idea is that Russia could set off a nuke and then try and blame it on the US.
Have they been watching too many mid-era James Bond films?
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Presumably Western intelligence would pretty quickly pick up movements of propulsion systems suitable for tactical battlefield nukes. I could see them being dusted down and wheeled in the direction of the border to put the shits up everyone. Let's keep an eye out.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
One of the most amusing moments of the whole special military operation war so far, at least for me, was the surprise attack on the military airfield in Crimea last month - which was followed with satellite images of the ‘day before’ and ‘day after’, the latter showing the damage to the field and aircraft.
But it’s the first image that will have put the sh1ts up Moscow, the shadows and aircraft positions telling the story that it was from an hour or two at most before the attack, letting the Russian command know for sure that the defenders have access to real-time satellite intelligence, something that not a handful of nations could provide.
You can buy sub meter resolution imagery from a number of commercial firms. The Russians can’t do that because of the embargo’s. But the Ukrainians could.
The world is moving at an extraordinary pace - capabilities that cost the US the price of a new super carrier, now available to you directly for a tiny fraction of the cost
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
And particularly the use of a nuclear weapon in what is a war of aggression. The rest of the world isn't going to just accept it and say 'whatever'. And that includes Russia's putative allies like China.
Although I don't think that many locals anywhere like Camper vans - they do seem to attract people unwilling to spend money locally - rather than going to the pub for a drink / meal they seem to go to the Supermarket and then drink cheap booze...
Curious how the usual suspects have rushed in to denounce Mr Drakeford and his "going to tax overnight stays in Wales" when it is [edit] simply a proposal to have a consultation on the idea of empowering local areas to introduce local taxes as they think fit, as indeed the BBC report makes clear.
On the subject of Putin and Nukes, one idea that I have heard from a Kremlin troll is that 'the US will set off a nuke in the Donbass and blame it on Russia'.
I think the possible idea is that Russia could set off a nuke and then try and blame it on the US.
Have they been watching too many mid-era James Bond films?
- General Anatoly Gogol: A common thief. A disgrace to the uniform! - Orlov: Yes, but tomorrow, I shall be a hero of the Soviet Union.
On the subject of Putin and Nukes, one idea that I have heard from a Kremlin troll is that 'the US will set off a nuke in the Donbass and blame it on Russia'.
I think the possible idea is that Russia could set off a nuke and then try and blame it on the US.
Have they been watching too many mid-era James Bond films?
Putin has been following the plot of Octop***y for most of this year, why change now?
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
1) Russian lawmakers in the State Duma passed legislation introducing the concepts of “mobilization, martial law and wartime” into the criminal code.
But it is an excuse so threadbare that it won't stand - or rather no one outside of Russia will stand for it, whatever fairytales the Russians tell themselves.
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Mrs DA's review of it was that it was "very white". Lol. The Ukrainians were semi-baffled, possibly thinking it was something to do with Harry Potter.
There was some Potter vibe. I think almost everyone felt that at certain points.
The funeral was the majesty, magic and pomp of the royals & crown on full display. A whopping great advert for British tourism. And it was flawless.
As HMQs private chapel is now full, will Charles build a new one for himself?
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Presumably Western intelligence would pretty quickly pick up movements of propulsion systems suitable for tactical battlefield nukes. I could see them being dusted down and wheeled in the direction of the border to put the shits up everyone. Let's keep an eye out.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
One of the most amusing moments of the whole special military operation war so far, at least for me, was the surprise attack on the military airfield in Crimea last month - which was followed with satellite images of the ‘day before’ and ‘day after’, the latter showing the damage to the field and aircraft.
But it’s the first image that will have put the sh1ts up Moscow, the shadows and aircraft positions telling the story that it was from an hour or two at most before the attack, letting the Russian command know for sure that the defenders have access to real-time satellite intelligence, something that not a handful of nations could provide.
You can buy sub meter resolution imagery from a number of commercial firms. The Russians can’t do that because of the embargo’s. But the Ukrainians could.
The world is moving at an extraordinary pace - capabilities that cost the US the price of a new super carrier, now available to you directly for a tiny fraction of the cost
You can buy hi-res sat imagery, on a daily or even hourly basis?
Or the Americans, Five Eyes, or Israelis, gave it to Ukranian intelligence?
The BBC website now as 5(five) distinct sections for the BIG issues (was this trend started during covid - I think it was?) The Queen War in Ukraine Cost of Living Crisis Coronavirus Climate
The Queen should get dropped soon enough no doubt .Not sure we need the last two with their own section .Covid is so 2021 and ,with the best will and virtue signalling , nobody really goes to the BBC site to zoom in on "climate " for news
Never leave your car parked under a large plane tree for three weeks
Clear coat is fucked. Parking a car under a tree has a similar effect on its resale value as driving it off a cliff. Clay bar now.
I left my car under the huge Austrian Pine in my front garden. The combination of Ostrich poo (they appear to roost in that tree) and resin wrecked the paint work. I successfully convinced Renault it was their fault (the paintwork was not fit for purpose) and they fixed it.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Presumably Western intelligence would pretty quickly pick up movements of propulsion systems suitable for tactical battlefield nukes. I could see them being dusted down and wheeled in the direction of the border to put the shits up everyone. Let's keep an eye out.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
One of the destabilising features of tactical nukes always was that they were often employed in mixed use systems. So, very often the only difference was the warhead. Which is one of the reasons that the US military wanted rid of them.
" One of the destabilising features of tactical nukes always was that they were often employed in mixed use systems. "
Eh ? Have I missed something, have tactical nukes ever been used in anger ?
I meant - fitted to weapons that would often have a conventional warhead as another option.
So that cruise missile coming at you - is it a nuke or just a bit rude?
The torpedo in the water - end times or a bad day?
And so on.
In the current case, I think a number of the missiles the Russians have launched at Ukraine have a nuclear option. The anti-surface ship missiles re-purposed for ground attack, for example.
One wrinkle of that is that the Russians reportedly forgot to remove the pen-aids from one of the more modern IRBMs that was recovered partly intact. Which perhaps gives them a bit more of a headache when planning for nuclear confrontation.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Presumably Western intelligence would pretty quickly pick up movements of propulsion systems suitable for tactical battlefield nukes. I could see them being dusted down and wheeled in the direction of the border to put the shits up everyone. Let's keep an eye out.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
One of the most amusing moments of the whole special military operation war so far, at least for me, was the surprise attack on the military airfield in Crimea last month - which was followed with satellite images of the ‘day before’ and ‘day after’, the latter showing the damage to the field and aircraft.
But it’s the first image that will have put the sh1ts up Moscow, the shadows and aircraft positions telling the story that it was from an hour or two at most before the attack, letting the Russian command know for sure that the defenders have access to real-time satellite intelligence, something that not a handful of nations could provide.
You can buy sub meter resolution imagery from a number of commercial firms. The Russians can’t do that because of the embargo’s. But the Ukrainians could.
The world is moving at an extraordinary pace - capabilities that cost the US the price of a new super carrier, now available to you directly for a tiny fraction of the cost
You can buy hi-res sat imagery, on a daily or even hourly basis?
Or the Americans, Five Eyes, or Israelis, gave it to Ukranian intelligence?
Always been a bit disturbed by the name "five eyes" - If say France joined and there it was "six eyes" then you coudl envisage it being three sets of eyes but an odd number makes it sound grotesque imho
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Presumably Western intelligence would pretty quickly pick up movements of propulsion systems suitable for tactical battlefield nukes. I could see them being dusted down and wheeled in the direction of the border to put the shits up everyone. Let's keep an eye out.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
One of the most amusing moments of the whole special military operation war so far, at least for me, was the surprise attack on the military airfield in Crimea last month - which was followed with satellite images of the ‘day before’ and ‘day after’, the latter showing the damage to the field and aircraft.
But it’s the first image that will have put the sh1ts up Moscow, the shadows and aircraft positions telling the story that it was from an hour or two at most before the attack, letting the Russian command know for sure that the defenders have access to real-time satellite intelligence, something that not a handful of nations could provide.
You can buy sub meter resolution imagery from a number of commercial firms. The Russians can’t do that because of the embargo’s. But the Ukrainians could.
The world is moving at an extraordinary pace - capabilities that cost the US the price of a new super carrier, now available to you directly for a tiny fraction of the cost
You can buy hi-res sat imagery, on a daily or even hourly basis?
Or the Americans, Five Eyes, or Israelis, gave it to Ukranian intelligence?
Why not both?
The sky is full of commercial imagery birds. Far more, in numbers, than the military ones. Which is why the US military is buying area survey stuff from them in vast job lots.
I miss yesterday. It was good to step away from reality.
Having a rubbish day at work. The general political (Truss' New Adventures in Downing St) and geopolitical background (Putin, Trump) looks bleak. Probably should avoid PB for a while and lose myself in a good book or something.
I meant - fitted to weapons that would often have a conventional warhead as another option.
So that cruise missile coming at you - is it a nuke or just a bit rude?
The torpedo in the water - end times or a bad day?
And so on.
In the current case, I think a number of the missiles the Russians have launched at Ukraine have a nuclear option. The anti-surface ship missiles re-purposed for ground attack, for example.
I think we can be reasonably optimistic that the combination of Ukrainian and Western intelligence would have an extremely good idea of what was happening and where, if Russia did start preparing to use tactical nukes. There might be some spontaneous explosions at the relevant sites.
“Amid a day of intense rumours that Russia is poised to announce mobilisation or martial law, the AviaSales flight search portal has started a thread on the cheapest one-way tickets out of the country in the coming days”
I meant - fitted to weapons that would often have a conventional warhead as another option.
So that cruise missile coming at you - is it a nuke or just a bit rude?
The torpedo in the water - end times or a bad day?
And so on.
In the current case, I think a number of the missiles the Russians have launched at Ukraine have a nuclear option. The anti-surface ship missiles re-purposed for ground attack, for example.
I think we can be reasonably optimistic that the combination of Ukrainian and Western intelligence would have an extremely good idea of what was happening and where, if Russia did start preparing to use tactical nukes. There might be some spontaneous explosions at the relevant sites.
I though the West did a terrific job at puncturing the Russian narrative in the build up to Feb 2022. That approach should be repeated.
The BBC website now as 5(five) distinct sections for the BIG issues (was this trend started during covid - I think it was?) The Queen War in Ukraine Cost of Living Crisis Coronavirus Climate
The Queen should get dropped soon enough no doubt .Not sure we need the last two with their own section .Covid is so 2021 and ,with the best will and virtue signalling , nobody really goes to the BBC site to zoom in on "climate " for news
I think the trend may have begun after 9/11. I feel like from memory they had some things like that for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Also General Elections. I think London 2012 may have had something similar too. Possibly others.
On the subject of Putin and Nukes, one idea that I have heard from a Kremlin troll is that 'the US will set off a nuke in the Donbass and blame it on Russia'.
I think the possible idea is that Russia could set off a nuke and then try and blame it on the US.
I’m a bit less negative after Putin’s meetings with Xi.
“Hong Kong(CNN) Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday praised China's "balanced position" on the Ukraine war, though he conceded Beijing had "questions and concerns" over the invasion, in what appeared to be a veiled admission of their diverging views over the protracted military assault.”
I’m sure that Xi would have made it clear that nuclear escalation changes China’s “balanced position” as it really isn’t in China’s interests for it to escalate outside of how it is now.
I’m sure most of what is coming out of Russia is trying to lay the groundwork so that if they have to come to the (no doubt very long) table they don’t do so from a position of complete humiliation and can try and grasp anything they can spin as a victory.
I miss yesterday. It was good to step away from reality.
Having a rubbish day at work. The general political (Truss' New Adventures in Downing St) and geopolitical background (Putin, Trump) looks bleak. Probably should avoid PB for a while and lose myself in a good book or something.
Am I alone today?
No, youre not. The stark reality of bleak house UK is really pissing me off
The BBC website now as 5(five) distinct sections for the BIG issues (was this trend started during covid - I think it was?) The Queen War in Ukraine Cost of Living Crisis Coronavirus Climate
The Queen should get dropped soon enough no doubt .Not sure we need the last two with their own section .Covid is so 2021 and ,with the best will and virtue signalling , nobody really goes to the BBC site to zoom in on "climate " for news
Agree,
The monarchy is yesterday's news - at least till the coronation; CoL is the big national news now and war in Ukraine the international one.
He's listed as the only runner but you'll get paid if anyone else wins in Russia in 2024. My personal view is the Even money on Putin to win in 2024 in Russia is excellent value.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
1) Russian lawmakers in the State Duma passed legislation introducing the concepts of “mobilization, martial law and wartime” into the criminal code.
But it is an excuse so threadbare that it won't stand - or rather no one outside of Russia will stand for it, whatever fairytales the Russians tell themselves.
The question is what is the real driving force of any mobilisation?
Ukraine is the obvious answer. But for Russia, it might be argued it's more concerned about what's happening with Armenia / Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan / Tajikistan plus the decision by Kazakhstan to pull closer to China. That's of far more importance to Russia than taking over two wrecked Oblasts in the Ukraine.
My guess is this step is being driven more by the latter than the former. Russia is worried it is seeing a catastrophic decline in its former republics. Under this scenario, mobilisation makes some sense - you can replace existing deployed soldiers with conscripts and hope that sends a signal.
Also look at the language of both Xi and Modi - it's clear they don't want the war in Ukraine escalating and Russia has been saying it has heard that. Full mobilisation - and definitely the use of nukes - goes against that
He's listed as the only runner but you'll get paid if anyone else wins in Russia in 2024. My personal view is the Even money on Putin to win in 2024 in Russia is excellent value.
What if there isn't an election in 2024?
Same rules as the Manchester Gorton by-election that never was, If no presidential election is held in 2024, this market will be void..
Apologies if this has already been posted, but if you want a really authoritative and well-argued discussion of what Putin might do next, and in particular whether he might resort to nuclear weapons, Sir Lawrence Freedman has today written a piece on exactly that:
“This is starting to feel like another 24 Feb moment: one by one, separatist/Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine announce referendums on joining Russia (23-27 Sep); & Russian Duma approves bill to toughen punishment for desertion/insubordination in times of military mobilisation.”
I miss yesterday. It was good to step away from reality.
Having a rubbish day at work. The general political (Truss' New Adventures in Downing St) and geopolitical background (Putin, Trump) looks bleak. Probably should avoid PB for a while and lose myself in a good book or something.
Am I alone today?
No, youre not. The stark reality of bleak house UK is really pissing me off
There's a Scots expression for back to workaday reality: back to auld claes [Anglice, old clothes] and porridge.
I miss yesterday. It was good to step away from reality.
Having a rubbish day at work. The general political (Truss' New Adventures in Downing St) and geopolitical background (Putin, Trump) looks bleak. Probably should avoid PB for a while and lose myself in a good book or something.
Am I alone today?
No, youre not. The stark reality of bleak house UK is really pissing me off
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
1) Russian lawmakers in the State Duma passed legislation introducing the concepts of “mobilization, martial law and wartime” into the criminal code.
But it is an excuse so threadbare that it won't stand - or rather no one outside of Russia will stand for it, whatever fairytales the Russians tell themselves.
The question is what is the real driving force of any mobilisation?
Ukraine is the obvious answer. But for Russia, it might be argued it's more concerned about what's happening with Armenia / Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan / Tajikistan plus the decision by Kazakhstan to pull closer to China. That's of far more importance to Russia than taking over two wrecked Oblasts in the Ukraine.
My guess is this step is being driven more by the latter than the former. Russia is worried it is seeing a catastrophic decline in its former republics. Under this scenario, mobilisation makes some sense - you can replace existing deployed soldiers with conscripts and hope that sends a signal.
Also look at the language of both Xi and Modi - it's clear they don't want the war in Ukraine escalating and Russia has been saying it has heard that. Full mobilisation - and definitely the use of nukes - goes against that
Interesting thought, he could go the full 1984. 'The past was alterable. The past never had been altered. Oceania was at war with Eastasia. Oceania had always been at war with Eastasia.'
The 'Special Military Operation' ends and Russia retreats from Ukraine in full, including Donbas and Crimea, but mobilises to deal with Armenia/Kyrgyzstan etc instead. Simply stop reporting the Ukrainian conflict, which was never a real war, then declare victory with mobilisation over Armenia or something similar as a great success to report.
Have heard from a colleague (As his son was involved) that Op London Bridge was apparently in swing by 11 am on the day of the death announcement.
Well yes. The lunchtime "its very serious" announcements that the Queen was "peacefully resting". Yes - she was dead. Wasn't that obvious from the wording? And the very swift switchover to national broadcasting with normal programming cancelled?
Formally announced at 18:30. Pre-announced just after lunch as early stages of London Bridge.
Mobilisation looks like to me given the referenda and Duma moves - with deployment to Kherson, Luhansk and Donetsk (But not Kharki/ov). Nuclear weaponry off the table for now.
The BBC website now as 5(five) distinct sections for the BIG issues (was this trend started during covid - I think it was?) The Queen War in Ukraine Cost of Living Crisis Coronavirus Climate
The Queen should get dropped soon enough no doubt .Not sure we need the last two with their own section .Covid is so 2021 and ,with the best will and virtue signalling , nobody really goes to the BBC site to zoom in on "climate " for news
Agree,
The monarchy is yesterday's news - at least till the coronation; CoL is the big national news now and war in Ukraine the international one.
Agree Covid and Climate do not merit their own section. The QEII will probably bubble on for a bit, theres more human interest/i met her when I was Queen of the Lavender type stories to be told whilst interest is high and royal mourning is still ongoing of course till next week
Never leave your car parked under a large plane tree for three weeks
Clear coat is fucked. Parking a car under a tree has a similar effect on its resale value as driving it off a cliff. Clay bar now.
I left my car under the huge Austrian Pine in my front garden. The combination of Ostrich poo (they appear to roost in that tree) and resin wrecked the paint work. I successfully convinced Renault it was their fault (the paintwork was not fit for purpose) and they fixed it.
We had a similar experience, although not with an Austrian pine, but with a Silver Birch. There were several places where the paint work was rotted by bird poo so I took it along to the local Skoda agent, who referred me on to the people who did bodywork locally and they quoted me £1000. Skoda said then give me book value if I traded it in for a new one so I did! And cut down the Silver Birch (which turned out to be rotten anyway).
Have heard from a colleague (As his son was involved) that Op London Bridge was apparently in swing by 11 am on the day of the death announcement.
Well yes. The lunchtime "its very serious" announcements that the Queen was "peacefully resting". Yes - she was dead. Wasn't that obvious from the wording? And the very swift switchover to national broadcasting with normal programming cancelled?
Formally announced at 18:30. Pre-announced just after lunch as early stages of London Bridge.
I was visiting Seaton Delaval Hall with junior and my better half so didn't catch the lunchtime coverage.
Have heard from a colleague (As his son was involved) that Op London Bridge was apparently in swing by 11 am on the day of the death announcement.
Well yes. The lunchtime "its very serious" announcements that the Queen was "peacefully resting". Yes - she was dead. Wasn't that obvious from the wording? And the very swift switchover to national broadcasting with normal programming cancelled?
Formally announced at 18:30. Pre-announced just after lunch as early stages of London Bridge.
Not pre announced. Otherwise it would have obviously leaked. Earlier 'she will not likely survive the day' type prompts
I meant - fitted to weapons that would often have a conventional warhead as another option.
So that cruise missile coming at you - is it a nuke or just a bit rude?
The torpedo in the water - end times or a bad day?
And so on.
In the current case, I think a number of the missiles the Russians have launched at Ukraine have a nuclear option. The anti-surface ship missiles re-purposed for ground attack, for example.
I think we can be reasonably optimistic that the combination of Ukrainian and Western intelligence would have an extremely good idea of what was happening and where, if Russia did start preparing to use tactical nukes. There might be some spontaneous explosions at the relevant sites.
I would be going for the outright purchase option.
"Instead of firing a nuke, sell it to us, and you get a get out of jail card, free. Plus a squillion dollars."
In Putin's regime, money talks. Tax free, clean money talks really, really loudly. Every general would be on the phone....
Government looks like having second thoughts on Channel 4 privatisation. To me , this is the ideal type of organisation that should be a workers cooperative. - ie not essential but good to have as many different models in a public type shared service.
“This is starting to feel like another 24 Feb moment: one by one, separatist/Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine announce referendums on joining Russia (23-27 Sep); & Russian Duma approves bill to toughen punishment for desertion/insubordination in times of military mobilisation.”
Igor Girkin said a couple of days ago that if Russia doesn't win then Putin should be under no illusions that there will be a revolution and he could end up like Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein.
I miss yesterday. It was good to step away from reality.
Having a rubbish day at work. The general political (Truss' New Adventures in Downing St) and geopolitical background (Putin, Trump) looks bleak. Probably should avoid PB for a while and lose myself in a good book or something.
Am I alone today?
No, youre not. The stark reality of bleak house UK is really pissing me off
Have heard from a colleague (As his son was involved) that Op London Bridge was apparently in swing by 11 am on the day of the death announcement.
Well yes. The lunchtime "its very serious" announcements that the Queen was "peacefully resting". Yes - she was dead. Wasn't that obvious from the wording? And the very swift switchover to national broadcasting with normal programming cancelled?
Formally announced at 18:30. Pre-announced just after lunch as early stages of London Bridge.
It was picked up on this site that it had happened minutes before the lunchtime announcement was even made. The commotion in the Commons during the headline energy plan debate, there was only one story big enough to disturb that. London Bridge was repeatedly mentioned here, and not just by usual suspects, minutes before anything was officially said by the doctors message being read out just from the body language on the front benches.
She was dead then. Or in code, "peacefully resting" as you say.
“This is starting to feel like another 24 Feb moment: one by one, separatist/Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine announce referendums on joining Russia (23-27 Sep); & Russian Duma approves bill to toughen punishment for desertion/insubordination in times of military mobilisation.”
Igor Girkin said a couple of days ago that if Russia doesn't win then Putin should be under no illusions that there will be a revolution and Putin could end up like Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein.
It's worth noting that Ukraine destroyed earlier attempts at fake referenda in the occupied areas with a combination of local sabotage and military strikes.
This seems like a stupid question but if a majority of the people of Luhansk and Donetsk voted to exit Ukraine and join the Russian Federation in a free and fair election, isn't there a strong argument they should be allowed to?
It seems unlikely this is directly aimed at Truss but it’s still extremely unhelpful for the new government in a week they are about to unveil a suite of economic policies which they won’t call, but nonetheless are, examples of “trickle-down.” https://twitter.com/potus/status/1572218921347866624
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.
You are hopecasting. You are not making predictions, you are stating fears and aspirations
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Presumably Western intelligence would pretty quickly pick up movements of propulsion systems suitable for tactical battlefield nukes. I could see them being dusted down and wheeled in the direction of the border to put the shits up everyone. Let's keep an eye out.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
One of the most amusing moments of the whole special military operation war so far, at least for me, was the surprise attack on the military airfield in Crimea last month - which was followed with satellite images of the ‘day before’ and ‘day after’, the latter showing the damage to the field and aircraft.
But it’s the first image that will have put the sh1ts up Moscow, the shadows and aircraft positions telling the story that it was from an hour or two at most before the attack, letting the Russian command know for sure that the defenders have access to real-time satellite intelligence, something that not a handful of nations could provide.
You can buy sub meter resolution imagery from a number of commercial firms. The Russians can’t do that because of the embargo’s. But the Ukrainians could.
The world is moving at an extraordinary pace - capabilities that cost the US the price of a new super carrier, now available to you directly for a tiny fraction of the cost
You can buy hi-res sat imagery, on a daily or even hourly basis?
Or the Americans, Five Eyes, or Israelis, gave it to Ukranian intelligence?
Always been a bit disturbed by the name "five eyes" - If say France joined and there it was "six eyes" then you coudl envisage it being three sets of eyes but an odd number makes it sound grotesque imho
This seems like a stupid question but if a majority of the people of Luhansk and Donetsk voted to exit Ukraine and join the Russian Federation in a free and fair election, isn't there a strong argument they should be allowed to?
Yes with respect its a stupid question, there's no such thing as a free and fair election when the Russian military are occupying the lands, and how are refugees currently temporarily kicked out of their homes supposed to vote in that election?
Once the land is liberated and back in Ukrainian jurisdiction and peaceful and stable then a free and fair election may be possible, not until then.
This seems like a stupid question but if a majority of the people of Luhansk and Donetsk voted to exit Ukraine and join the Russian Federation in a free and fair election, isn't there a strong argument they should be allowed to?
It seems unlikely this is directly aimed at Truss but it’s still extremely unhelpful for the new government in a week they are about to unveil a suite of economic policies which they won’t call, but nonetheless are, examples of “trickle-down.” https://twitter.com/potus/status/1572218921347866624
How exactly is reversing the National Insurance hike that was roundly condemned here at the time and vociferously opposed by the Labour Party an example of "trickle-down"?
This seems like a stupid question but if a majority of the people of Luhansk and Donetsk voted to exit Ukraine and join the Russian Federation in a free and fair election, isn't there a strong argument they should be allowed to?
I've been given exclusive access to the ballot paper:
“This is starting to feel like another 24 Feb moment: one by one, separatist/Russian-occupied regions in Ukraine announce referendums on joining Russia (23-27 Sep); & Russian Duma approves bill to toughen punishment for desertion/insubordination in times of military mobilisation.”
Igor Girkin said a couple of days ago that if Russia doesn't win then Putin should be under no illusions that there will be a revolution and he could end up like Gaddafi or Saddam Hussein.
Yes. Putin HAS to “win” this; the alternative is an ugly death, for him and his acolytes
That will focus his unstable mind. Quite sobering for everyone else too
Comments
Look at what they are doing today. Organising referendums and paving the legal road to mobilisation
Luhansk and Donbass will vote to become Russia. Once they are Russia then any Ukrainain forces there will be "invading Russia" = all out war.
Russia does not have the conventional forces for all out war, and mobilisation will take months to impact that
Ergo, they have to stop the Ukrainian/NATO "invasion of Russia" now, and with other means, to save Russia
Russia already tried the dodgy referendum trick over Crimea, it didn't work, the rest of the world still recognises Crimea as Ukraine. While the USA has tied one hand behind Ukraine's back when it comes to striking Russia, they've not done so with regards to striking Crimea, because Crimea isn't Russian. Hence why Crimea has been repeatedly struck with missiles and why the Russian fleet has had to retreat out of Crimea.
If the dodgy referendum and eight years of "annexation" hasn't made Crimea "Russian", then Luhansk and Donetsk aren't going to be either.
And the men come from conscription which only really applies to the big Western cities as they have already been forcing every young man from the provinces to turn up. And that conscription will not go down well among the Russian middle class who will revolt. It would accelerate the end of Putin.
Alternative would be from a submarine in the Black Sea, and they seem to be moving them out of Crimea towards Novorossiysk. Even then I would imagine intel will find its way to the CIA or other agencies fairly quickly.
They could have held these "referenda" months ago. When they actually held all the territory. If it is really Russia, then use Russian troops to expel them. But that's the point. They can't. They are being pushed backwards. And where they are pushed out, people come and offer the liberating troops hugs and kisses and watermelons.
Argentina could have shipped all the Bennies off to Buenos Aires and asked the sheep if they were now happily Argentinian. And what, the Brits should have accepted that and Task Force should have turned round?
Everyone knows the referenda will not be free and fair. They will rightly be ignored.
If its another talking shop like G7, then sure, why not?
"It also signals that Putin realizes that losing this war would pose a significant domestic threat to his rule. What is the bigger risk for him: mobilization, use of tactical nuclear weapons, or losing the Donbas and other occupied areas of Ukraine?"
https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1572195126486728710?s=20&t=PUBfKVNdVjMz2P5k-XFFNg
Comments beneath that thread say he might go biological or chemical. I don't believe that works for him, but who knows. He needs a total game changer
1 - Who's driving, and make seek to control, it?
2 - What value will be added?
3 - How is it significantly different from all the other forums?
After one game, the chap playing Herman Goering was asked what the hell he’d been doing. He answered that he’d been playing the character true to life - as in winning the game of top trumps in the Nazi hierarchy, rather than get tagged with the failure of a hopeless invasion.
That's the point
Next month's polls will tell us whether the Energy Plan and Payments have made any difference.
Time to go and be useful.
Lose the war and he may lose power and his life. Use nukes and every Russian loses their families.
Its just fearmongering by those who couldn't understand or foresee that Russia would lose this war. I've been saying it for months, Russia is more fucked than a dockyard hooker on a Pornhub casting couch with her stepson.
The enemy wants to say, mostly to a domestic audience, that “Ukraine is invading Russia”, and use that as justification for an upgrade of the conflict.
https://smarkets.com/event/42623628/politics/europe/2025/01/01/00-00/russia/2024/04/07/12-00/2024-russian-presidential-election
He's listed as the only runner but you'll get paid if anyone else wins in Russia in 2024. My personal view is the Even money on Putin to win in 2024 in Russia is excellent value.
Then again, I gather much of what looked ancient about yesterday's spectacle was invented quite recently.
Back in February I had a quiet thirty minutes to myself when I felt very down. I saw Ukraine didn't lose in the first week, so I rightly hoped they'd hold on.
But then I thought:
Either Ukraine WILL lose in the end, which upset me; or
Russia loses, but unable to cope with the impending loss, nukes Ukraine.
Yes, its not rational, its not reasonable, but Putin may see his only way out as nukes, and be damned with the consequences. He may yet bet (rightly?) he can nuke a few sites in Ukraine and 'get away with it' and the Western reaction is merely more sanctions.
He then 'wins' as Ukraine has to give up, and after twelves months Russia approaches the west and says 'Stop the sanctions, facts on the ground now' and places like Germany fold like a wet paper bag.
Come to think of it, we are moving past some things. No one devoted a column inch to how insulting to the French the bearskins are, for example.
Eh ? Have I missed something, have tactical nukes ever been used in anger ?
But it’s the first image that will have put the sh1ts up Moscow, the shadows and aircraft positions telling the story that it was from an hour or two at most before the attack, letting the Russian command know for sure that the defenders have access to real-time satellite intelligence, something that not a handful of nations could provide.
It's not yet like one of those one-space tile puzzles.
Although I don't think that many locals anywhere like Camper vans - they do seem to attract people unwilling to spend money locally - rather than going to the pub for a drink / meal they seem to go to the Supermarket and then drink cheap booze...
I think the possible idea is that Russia could set off a nuke and then try and blame it on the US.
So that cruise missile coming at you - is it a nuke or just a bit rude?
The torpedo in the water - end times or a bad day?
And so on.
In the current case, I think a number of the missiles the Russians have launched at Ukraine have a nuclear option. The anti-surface ship missiles re-purposed for ground attack, for example.
If they keep whining "but we are fighting NATO", then they just might end up doing that.
And discover just how good the weapons are they haven't faced yet. There'd be no dressing that up as anything other than having their arses handed to them on a plate.
The real game changer would be China seeing it as the moment to take everything east of the Urals. Their wargaming must keep coming up with the same outcomes: "Piece of piss...." They could use the having-a-laugh excuse that anywhere with a Chinese restaurant is part of China. Pretty much like they own the whole of the China Sea because it has "China" in the name.
Putin would only have himself to blame.
Which is why the procedure for approval of nuclear use was subsequently tightened up massively, and made 100% subject to civilian (ie Presidential) authority.
The world is moving at an extraordinary pace - capabilities that cost the US the price of a new super carrier, now available to you directly for a tiny fraction of the cost
The rest of the world isn't going to just accept it and say 'whatever'. And that includes Russia's putative allies like China.
- Orlov: Yes, but tomorrow, I shall be a hero of the Soviet Union.
https://twitter.com/DimitriASimes/status/1572195335212257282
Important 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Update: Growing signs that Russia is preparing to declare a partial or general mobilization.
1) Russian lawmakers in the State Duma passed legislation introducing the concepts of “mobilization, martial law and wartime” into the criminal code.
But it is an excuse so threadbare that it won't stand - or rather no one outside of Russia will stand for it, whatever fairytales the Russians tell themselves.
Or the Americans, Five Eyes, or Israelis, gave it to Ukranian intelligence?
The Queen
War in Ukraine
Cost of Living Crisis
Coronavirus
Climate
The Queen should get dropped soon enough no doubt .Not sure we need the last two with their own section .Covid is so 2021 and ,with the best will and virtue signalling , nobody really goes to the BBC site to zoom in on "climate " for news
Which perhaps gives them a bit more of a headache when planning for nuclear confrontation.
The sky is full of commercial imagery birds. Far more, in numbers, than the military ones. Which is why the US military is buying area survey stuff from them in vast job lots.
Having a rubbish day at work. The general political (Truss' New Adventures in Downing St) and geopolitical background (Putin, Trump) looks bleak. Probably should avoid PB for a while and lose myself in a good book or something.
Am I alone today?
If they nuked (or tried to), Russia would end up as glass.
It's an empty threat.
https://twitter.com/jakecordell/status/1572219987607126018?s=46&t=MWmURl0pq6SRe0YIbmegiw
“Hong Kong(CNN) Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday praised China's "balanced position" on the Ukraine war, though he conceded Beijing had "questions and concerns" over the invasion, in what appeared to be a veiled admission of their diverging views over the protracted military assault.”
I’m sure that Xi would have made it clear that nuclear escalation changes China’s “balanced position” as it really isn’t in China’s interests for it to escalate outside of how it is now.
I’m sure most of what is coming out of Russia is trying to lay the groundwork so that if they have to come to the (no doubt very long) table they don’t do so from a position of complete humiliation and can try and grasp anything they can spin as a
victory.
The monarchy is yesterday's news - at least till the coronation; CoL is the big national news now and war in Ukraine the international one.
Ukraine is the obvious answer. But for Russia, it might be argued it's more concerned about what's happening with Armenia / Azerbaijan and Kyrgyzstan / Tajikistan plus the decision by Kazakhstan to pull closer to China. That's of far more importance to Russia than taking over two wrecked Oblasts in the Ukraine.
My guess is this step is being driven more by the latter than the former. Russia is worried it is seeing a catastrophic decline in its former republics. Under this scenario, mobilisation makes some sense - you can replace existing deployed soldiers with conscripts and hope that sends a signal.
Also look at the language of both Xi and Modi - it's clear they don't want the war in Ukraine escalating and Russia has been saying it has heard that. Full mobilisation - and definitely the use of nukes - goes against that
https://samf.substack.com/p/going-nuclear?r=72szy&s=w&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
https://twitter.com/bbcstever/status/1572219444390248448?s=46&t=MWmURl0pq6SRe0YIbmegiw
The 'Special Military Operation' ends and Russia retreats from Ukraine in full, including Donbas and Crimea, but mobilises to deal with Armenia/Kyrgyzstan etc instead. Simply stop reporting the Ukrainian conflict, which was never a real war, then declare victory with mobilisation over Armenia or something similar as a great success to report.
Formally announced at 18:30. Pre-announced just after lunch as early stages of London Bridge.
Nuclear weaponry off the table for now.
And cut down the Silver Birch (which turned out to be rotten anyway).
"Instead of firing a nuke, sell it to us, and you get a get out of jail card, free. Plus a squillion dollars."
In Putin's regime, money talks. Tax free, clean money talks really, really loudly. Every general would be on the phone....
She was dead then. Or in code, "peacefully resting" as you say.
Once the land is liberated and back in Ukrainian jurisdiction and peaceful and stable then a free and fair election may be possible, not until then.
CNN’s @DonLemon tells royal commentator Hilary Fordwich the royal family should pay reparations — immediately regrets it
https://twitter.com/tomselliott/status/1572145367512190978
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Stimmzettel-Anschluss.jpg
That will focus his unstable mind. Quite sobering for everyone else too