We weren't queue jumping in the same way as there were no parties in #10 during COVID.....
Its hardly crime of the century . But Becks and Reid certainly showed them up . They should just say sorry and say they have reflected upon whether a bit of celebrity status went to thier heads (which lets face it happens all the time with celebrities) and will try to be more level headed going forward. Sometimes you just get outclassed and then have to be humble enough to realise and admit it
Coming on the back of their spin the wheel and win your energy bills paid this winter it suggests they, and the team at This Morning, are out of touch and tin eared. Anne and Nick would never have done it
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
Suppose Thatcher hadn't sent a taskforce to retake the Falklands, and Argentina had shipped thousands of Argentines to the islands over the course of eight years, while victimising the pre-1982 residents so many of them fled.
How meaningful would a 1990 Falklands Islands status referendum have been in those circumstances?
The suggestion of a referendum in Crimea, given the events of the past eight years, is completely risible. It would reward Russia's aggression and teach dictators that they can legitimise occupation by a process of ethnic cleansing and resettlement.
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Similarly sub 50 for Labour would ring alarms
A LibDem gain of course would really put the cat among the pigeons! And is of course highly unlikely! If "highly" is quite high enough!!
Yes this one is beyond even the mighty orange hammer of Thor Davey im afraid
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
What about the Louisiana Purchase as a prototype for Russia buying Crimea?
The slight problem tis the large number of Ukrainians from the Crimea who wouldn't like that. Or the rest of the Ukrainian population, either.
Might as well suggest that the UK buys the Pale of Calais from France.
We weren't queue jumping in the same way as there were no parties in #10 during COVID.....
Its hardly crime of the century . But Becks and Reid certainly showed them up . They should just say sorry and say they have reflected upon whether a bit of celebrity status went to thier heads (which lets face it happens all the time with celebrities) and will try to be more level headed going forward. Sometimes you just get outclassed and then have to be humble enough to realise and admit it
Coming on the back of their spin the wheel and win your energy bills paid this winter it suggests they, and the team at This Morning, are out of touch and tin eared. Anne and Nick would never have done it
I think it'll be the low point of Willoughby's career...........................
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
Suppose Thatcher hadn't sent a taskforce to retake the Falklands, and Argentina had shipped thousands of Argentines to the islands over the course of eight years, while victimising the pre-1982 residents so many of them fled.
How meaningful would a 1990 Falklands Islands status referendum have been in those circumstances?
The suggestion of a referendum in Crimea, given the events of the past eight years, is completely risible. It would reward Russia's aggression and teach dictators that they can legitimise occupation by a process of ethnic cleansing and resettlement.
i did not suggest a referendum , referendums do not solve practical issues if locals do not want a certain government . Just realpolitik really.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
but that means a but of ethnic cleansing then doesnt it ? To restore a position where Ukraine will be wanted in the region by the locals. It may not be fair but practically you have to deal with todays reality not historicial claims or even past immigration. The war will never end if Crimea is taken , it may pause but never end - does Ukraine really wnat that in a region where they will not be welcome?
Invaders going back to their homeland after being repelled isn't ethnic cleansing.
Crimea is land that Ukraine was welcomed in until it was invaded. Once the invaders are repelled, the war will be over. Anyone who doesn't want to be Ukrainian, is welcome to return to Russia with their army.
All i am saying is by making Crimea a military prize , the war will drag on and may never truly end . Does Ukraine really want that ? Not sure
FWIW, Zelensky has said in recent days that they will recover it 'by diplomatic means'.
Entailed having both his femurs broken, and adjustable metal nails inserted down their centers. Each nail is made of titanium, which is both flexible and sturdy, like bone, and about the size of a piccolo. The nails were extended one millimeter every day for about 90 days via a magnetic remote control. Once the broken bones heal, ta-da: a newer, taller John.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
Suppose Thatcher hadn't sent a taskforce to retake the Falklands, and Argentina had shipped thousands of Argentines to the islands over the course of eight years, while victimising the pre-1982 residents so many of them fled.
How meaningful would a 1990 Falklands Islands status referendum have been in those circumstances?
The suggestion of a referendum in Crimea, given the events of the past eight years, is completely risible. It would reward Russia's aggression and teach dictators that they can legitimise occupation by a process of ethnic cleansing and resettlement.
but the falklands war happened - not much point in a war in 1990 (if not one in 1981) about the Falklands when has you say it would very much have been Argentinian then.
People want a change and there is nothing Liz Truss or her party can now do to restore belief.
They are in for a shellacking.
You're underestimating the change-making energiser bunny that is Liz Truss.
She will be energetic and will create change. Totally agree with you there. Sadly for the Cons - and indeed my betting book - I think one of the main changes will be to turn the prospect of a Labour majority at the next election from slim to pretty good.
Entailed having both his femurs broken, and adjustable metal nails inserted down their centers. Each nail is made of titanium, which is both flexible and sturdy, like bone, and about the size of a piccolo. The nails were extended one millimeter every day for about 90 days via a magnetic remote control. Once the broken bones heal, ta-da: a newer, taller John.
Cosmetic surgery - invented for medical needs and repurposed - like this has been around since the year dot.
One for the doctors - I saw a story years back about using coral (suitably killed off) as infill for gaps in bones as a result of surgery. Apparently the bone would grow and absorb the coral, treating it as a scaffold. Did anything come of this?
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
but that means a but of ethnic cleansing then doesnt it ? To restore a position where Ukraine will be wanted in the region by the locals. It may not be fair but practically you have to deal with todays reality not historicial claims or even past immigration. The war will never end if Crimea is taken , it may pause but never end - does Ukraine really wnat that in a region where they will not be welcome?
Invaders going back to their homeland after being repelled isn't ethnic cleansing.
Crimea is land that Ukraine was welcomed in until it was invaded. Once the invaders are repelled, the war will be over. Anyone who doesn't want to be Ukrainian, is welcome to return to Russia with their army.
All i am saying is by making Crimea a military prize , the war will drag on and may never truly end . Does Ukraine really want that ? Not sure
I think you're completely wrong. Make Crimea a military prize and the war is over. Liberate Crimea, along with Donbas etc and Ukraine have all their land restored and without any hope of holding Sevastopol, Russia will have no further interest in creating a land bridge to it anymore either.
Liberation of Crimea ends the war, it doesn't drag it on. Yes, absolutely, Ukraine will want that.
We weren't queue jumping in the same way as there were no parties in #10 during COVID.....
Its hardly crime of the century . But Becks and Reid certainly showed them up . They should just say sorry and say they have reflected upon whether a bit of celebrity status went to thier heads (which lets face it happens all the time with celebrities) and will try to be more level headed going forward. Sometimes you just get outclassed and then have to be humble enough to realise and admit it
Coming on the back of their spin the wheel and win your energy bills paid this winter it suggests they, and the team at This Morning, are out of touch and tin eared. Anne and Nick would never have done it
I think it'll be the low point of Willoughby's career...........................
If I remember rightly didn't Schofield buy into the whole VIP paedo thing and wave a "list" at David Cameron that he downloaded of the internet, which was visible to people at home? That seems another level of low.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
but that means a but of ethnic cleansing then doesnt it ? To restore a position where Ukraine will be wanted in the region by the locals. It may not be fair but practically you have to deal with todays reality not historicial claims or even past immigration. The war will never end if Crimea is taken , it may pause but never end - does Ukraine really wnat that in a region where they will not be welcome?
Invaders going back to their homeland after being repelled isn't ethnic cleansing.
Crimea is land that Ukraine was welcomed in until it was invaded. Once the invaders are repelled, the war will be over. Anyone who doesn't want to be Ukrainian, is welcome to return to Russia with their army.
All i am saying is by making Crimea a military prize , the war will drag on and may never truly end . Does Ukraine really want that ? Not sure
FWIW, Zelensky has said in recent days that they will recover it 'by diplomatic means'.
which is sort of what I am trying to point out - He is sensible enough to realise Crimea is different and coudl be a mess if done the wrong way
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
What about the Louisiana Purchase as a prototype for Russia buying Crimea?
No chance. Louisiana was relatively uninhabited and was land France couldn't really control, and the USA wasn't at war with France either.
Crimea is sovereign territory of Ukraine that many Ukrainians live/lived in and want their home back, and Ukraine is literally at war regaining its lost territory. What possible reason would they have to sell and upset their own citizens by selling their home?
"Louisiana was relatively uninhabited". This was not the modern US state, but a huge tranche of the mid-West.
'The Louisiana Purchase was negotiated between France and the United States, without consulting the various Indian tribes who lived on the land and who had not ceded the land to any colonial power. The four decades following the Louisiana Purchase was an era of court decisions removing many tribes from their lands east of the Mississippi for resettlement in the new territory, culminating in the Trail of Tears.[62]
The purchase of the Louisiana Territory led to debates over the idea of indigenous land rights that persisted into the mid 20th century. The many court cases and tribal suits in the 1930s for historical damages flowing from the Louisiana Purchase led to the Indian Claims Commission Act (ICCA) in 1946. Felix S. Cohen, Interior Department Lawyer who helped pass ICCA, is often quoted as saying, "practically all of the real estate acquired by the United States since 1776 was purchased not from Napoleon or any other emperor or czar but from its original Indian owners", roughly estimating that Indians had received twenty times as much as France had for the territory bought by the United States, "somewhat in excess of 800 million dollars".[1][2] More recently, the total cost to the U.S. government of all subsequent treaties and financial settlements over the land has been estimated to be around 2.6 billion dollars.[1][2]'
From your own link:
At the time of the purchase, the territory of Louisiana's non-native population was around 60,000 inhabitants, of whom half were enslaved Africans.[3]
The 16.0 to back Harris for the presidency is still up at Smarkets, I've taken £58 twice and each time another £58 has gone up (Which balances off my book how I'd like should Biden step down). Just letting pbers know as I think it's a good price.
The Government has a secret plan to beef up the driving test, the best 25% of drivers on the day will get to use the motorways and dual carriageways, the other 75% get to use B roads. The motorways etc. are to be renamed “grammar roads”
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
What about the Louisiana Purchase as a prototype for Russia buying Crimea?
No chance. Louisiana was relatively uninhabited and was land France couldn't really control, and the USA wasn't at war with France either.
Crimea is sovereign territory of Ukraine that many Ukrainians live/lived in and want their home back, and Ukraine is literally at war regaining its lost territory. What possible reason would they have to sell and upset their own citizens by selling their home?
"Louisiana was relatively uninhabited". This was not the modern US state, but a huge tranche of the mid-West.
'The Louisiana Purchase was negotiated between France and the United States, without consulting the various Indian tribes who lived on the land and who had not ceded the land to any colonial power. The four decades following the Louisiana Purchase was an era of court decisions removing many tribes from their lands east of the Mississippi for resettlement in the new territory, culminating in the Trail of Tears.[62]
The purchase of the Louisiana Territory led to debates over the idea of indigenous land rights that persisted into the mid 20th century. The many court cases and tribal suits in the 1930s for historical damages flowing from the Louisiana Purchase led to the Indian Claims Commission Act (ICCA) in 1946. Felix S. Cohen, Interior Department Lawyer who helped pass ICCA, is often quoted as saying, "practically all of the real estate acquired by the United States since 1776 was purchased not from Napoleon or any other emperor or czar but from its original Indian owners", roughly estimating that Indians had received twenty times as much as France had for the territory bought by the United States, "somewhat in excess of 800 million dollars".[1][2] More recently, the total cost to the U.S. government of all subsequent treaties and financial settlements over the land has been estimated to be around 2.6 billion dollars.[1][2]'
From your own link:
At the time of the purchase, the territory of Louisiana's non-native population was around 60,000 inhabitants, of whom half were enslaved Africans.[3]
Entailed having both his femurs broken, and adjustable metal nails inserted down their centers. Each nail is made of titanium, which is both flexible and sturdy, like bone, and about the size of a piccolo. The nails were extended one millimeter every day for about 90 days via a magnetic remote control. Once the broken bones heal, ta-da: a newer, taller John.
Heightism is a real problem. If you want to get ahead in business, love or life generally, be tall. Average is not enough.
Absolutely. Although as the article states...
There’s no single reason anyone opts for leg-lengthening surgery, but often at least one of those reasons has to do with impressing girls.
And yes heightism definitely exists there, but my experience of a lot of tech bros they have many more pressing issues when it comes to being attractive to the opposite sex than being a couple of inches under 6ft.
Entailed having both his femurs broken, and adjustable metal nails inserted down their centers. Each nail is made of titanium, which is both flexible and sturdy, like bone, and about the size of a piccolo. The nails were extended one millimeter every day for about 90 days via a magnetic remote control. Once the broken bones heal, ta-da: a newer, taller John.
Heightism is a real problem. If you want to get ahead in business, love or life generally, be tall. Average is not enough.
Absolutely. Although as the article states...
There’s no single reason anyone opts for leg-lengthening surgery, but often at least one of those reasons has to do with impressing girls.
And yes heightism definitely exists there, but my experience of a lot of tech bros they have many more pressing issues when it comes to being attractive to the opposite sex than being a couple of inches under 6ft.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
What about the Louisiana Purchase as a prototype for Russia buying Crimea?
The slight problem tis the large number of Ukrainians from the Crimea who wouldn't like that. Or the rest of the Ukrainian population, either.
Might as well suggest that the UK buys the Pale of Calais from France.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
What about the Louisiana Purchase as a prototype for Russia buying Crimea?
No chance. Louisiana was relatively uninhabited and was land France couldn't really control, and the USA wasn't at war with France either.
Crimea is sovereign territory of Ukraine that many Ukrainians live/lived in and want their home back, and Ukraine is literally at war regaining its lost territory. What possible reason would they have to sell and upset their own citizens by selling their home?
"Louisiana was relatively uninhabited". This was not the modern US state, but a huge tranche of the mid-West.
'The Louisiana Purchase was negotiated between France and the United States, without consulting the various Indian tribes who lived on the land and who had not ceded the land to any colonial power. The four decades following the Louisiana Purchase was an era of court decisions removing many tribes from their lands east of the Mississippi for resettlement in the new territory, culminating in the Trail of Tears.[62]
The purchase of the Louisiana Territory led to debates over the idea of indigenous land rights that persisted into the mid 20th century. The many court cases and tribal suits in the 1930s for historical damages flowing from the Louisiana Purchase led to the Indian Claims Commission Act (ICCA) in 1946. Felix S. Cohen, Interior Department Lawyer who helped pass ICCA, is often quoted as saying, "practically all of the real estate acquired by the United States since 1776 was purchased not from Napoleon or any other emperor or czar but from its original Indian owners", roughly estimating that Indians had received twenty times as much as France had for the territory bought by the United States, "somewhat in excess of 800 million dollars".[1][2] More recently, the total cost to the U.S. government of all subsequent treaties and financial settlements over the land has been estimated to be around 2.6 billion dollars.[1][2]'
From your own link:
At the time of the purchase, the territory of Louisiana's non-native population was around 60,000 inhabitants, of whom half were enslaved Africans.[3]
It was relatively uninhabited by France.
The French population didn't entirely enjoy the experience either.
What do you get if you chase French people into a tropical swamp? Blues played on the accordian.
Entailed having both his femurs broken, and adjustable metal nails inserted down their centers. Each nail is made of titanium, which is both flexible and sturdy, like bone, and about the size of a piccolo. The nails were extended one millimeter every day for about 90 days via a magnetic remote control. Once the broken bones heal, ta-da: a newer, taller John.
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Similarly sub 50 for Labour would ring alarms
A LibDem gain of course would really put the cat among the pigeons! And is of course highly unlikely! If "highly" is quite high enough!!
Genuinely interested in how the LDs approach this. May give a sense of how any unofficial progressive alliance will play out.
Always worth remembering that in some places (e.g. Stockport), the animosity between LD and Labour activists is real and often visceral.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
What about the Louisiana Purchase as a prototype for Russia buying Crimea?
No chance. Louisiana was relatively uninhabited and was land France couldn't really control, and the USA wasn't at war with France either.
Crimea is sovereign territory of Ukraine that many Ukrainians live/lived in and want their home back, and Ukraine is literally at war regaining its lost territory. What possible reason would they have to sell and upset their own citizens by selling their home?
"Louisiana was relatively uninhabited". This was not the modern US state, but a huge tranche of the mid-West.
'The Louisiana Purchase was negotiated between France and the United States, without consulting the various Indian tribes who lived on the land and who had not ceded the land to any colonial power. The four decades following the Louisiana Purchase was an era of court decisions removing many tribes from their lands east of the Mississippi for resettlement in the new territory, culminating in the Trail of Tears.[62]
The purchase of the Louisiana Territory led to debates over the idea of indigenous land rights that persisted into the mid 20th century. The many court cases and tribal suits in the 1930s for historical damages flowing from the Louisiana Purchase led to the Indian Claims Commission Act (ICCA) in 1946. Felix S. Cohen, Interior Department Lawyer who helped pass ICCA, is often quoted as saying, "practically all of the real estate acquired by the United States since 1776 was purchased not from Napoleon or any other emperor or czar but from its original Indian owners", roughly estimating that Indians had received twenty times as much as France had for the territory bought by the United States, "somewhat in excess of 800 million dollars".[1][2] More recently, the total cost to the U.S. government of all subsequent treaties and financial settlements over the land has been estimated to be around 2.6 billion dollars.[1][2]'
From your own link:
At the time of the purchase, the territory of Louisiana's non-native population was around 60,000 inhabitants, of whom half were enslaved Africans.[3]
It was relatively uninhabited by France.
But not by the locals' standards!
They weren't negotiating with the locals! Indeed the exclusive right to deal with the 'Indians' by treaty or conquest was a part of the purchase from France.
Entailed having both his femurs broken, and adjustable metal nails inserted down their centers. Each nail is made of titanium, which is both flexible and sturdy, like bone, and about the size of a piccolo. The nails were extended one millimeter every day for about 90 days via a magnetic remote control. Once the broken bones heal, ta-da: a newer, taller John.
Heightism is a real problem. If you want to get ahead in business, love or life generally, be tall. Average is not enough.
Absolutely. Although as the article states...
There’s no single reason anyone opts for leg-lengthening surgery, but often at least one of those reasons has to do with impressing girls.
And yes heightism definitely exists there, but my experience of a lot of tech bros they have many more pressing issues when it comes to being attractive to the opposite sex than being a couple of inches under 6ft.
After their company gets to the IPO, they will suddenly find themselves a whole lot more attractive to the young ladies, pretty much irrespective of their height.
Here is a report about the movement of Russian submarines from 14 September, six days ago.
Today's story about "Britain says" is a rehash. Perhaps it's the nearest that brand managers could find to the "Britain conquers Everest" story that was put out on the same day as the 1953 coronation. Was Daniel Craig in the Abbey yesterday?
What I would like to know is whether Russia has changed the number of SSBNs it has on patrol.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
It is very "sort-of," though.
Going back in time, it's been legally Ukrainian since 1954 (66 years - since 1991 as an oblast of Ukraine, and from 1954-1991 as part of the Ukraine SSR). For 9 years before that, it was an oblast of the Russian SSR, and for 24 years before that, an independent SSR within the Soviet Union.
From 1783-1917 (134 years) it was indeed part of Russia, but before that, it was all over the place (Crimean Khanate from 1443-1783, going further back, we've got the Golden Horde, Principality of Theodoro, Venetians, Genoans, and before them, much of it was under the Kievan Rus (the predecessors of Ukraine, anyway).
Very complicated history, and only a fraction of it was under the Russians.
Entailed having both his femurs broken, and adjustable metal nails inserted down their centers. Each nail is made of titanium, which is both flexible and sturdy, like bone, and about the size of a piccolo. The nails were extended one millimeter every day for about 90 days via a magnetic remote control. Once the broken bones heal, ta-da: a newer, taller John.
Heightism is a real problem. If you want to get ahead in business, love or life generally, be tall. Average is not enough.
Absolutely. Although as the article states...
There’s no single reason anyone opts for leg-lengthening surgery, but often at least one of those reasons has to do with impressing girls.
And yes heightism definitely exists there, but my experience of a lot of tech bros they have many more pressing issues when it comes to being attractive to the opposite sex than being a couple of inches under 6ft.
After their company gets to the IPO, they will suddenly find themselves a whole lot more attractive to the young ladies, pretty much irrespective of their height.
"What first attracted you to the short, fat, tech Billionaire X, Miss Y?"
Apparently the new king signed a proclamation that Trump won the election and if Biden doesn't vacate the White House a state of war will exist between us and the USA.
I didn't know that. Amazing what you can find out on the internet.
Apparently the new king signed a proclamation that Trump won the election and if Biden doesn't vacate the White House a state of war will exist between us and the USA.
I didn't know that. Amazing what you can find out on the internet.
Would you like a copy of Corbyn's KGB file to go with that?
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
6 years is a third of childhood, that absolutely is much of someone's childhood. If you consider childhood as pre-teen then its half of it.
Its not most, but it is definitely much.
It's a chunk, but not "a great quantity of" which is what Chambers says, especially as it was pre-teen anyway, so of very little political significance.
6 years absolutely is "a great quantity of".
Primary school years 1 to 6 unsurprisingly enough lasts for six years, oh and its pre-teen too. Are you seriously suggesting primary school is not "much of childhood"?
In terms of how much a child does absorb of its environment and politics - which is what Ms Truss is playing on - yes, 6 years is not a lot especially when biased towards the primary years. It'sd not as if she went to secondary in Scotland, still less uni like Mr Brown.
Well she didn't absorb much from her parents, so it's pretty well moot anyway.
Paisley is hardly a SLD stronghold, and I don't recall it ever being ...
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
It is very "sort-of," though.
Going back in time, it's been legally Ukrainian since 1954 (66 years - since 1991 as an oblast of Ukraine, and from 1954-1991 as part of the Ukraine SSR). For 9 years before that, it was an oblast of the Russian SSR, and for 24 years before that, an independent SSR within the Soviet Union.
From 1783-1917 (134 years) it was indeed part of Russia, but before that, it was all over the place (Crimean Khanate from 1443-1783, going further back, we've got the Golden Horde, Principality of Theodoro, Venetians, Genoans, and before them, much of it was under the Kievan Rus (the predecessors of Ukraine, anyway).
Very complicated history, and only a fraction of it was under the Russians.
Some of my ancestors came from that neck of the woods.
Apparently there is an old joke which varied according to the age of the teller - "Born in country A, lived in B, C, D etc. Then I left the village."
But I was one of those who correctly predicted that there would be no Truss bounce. Indeed, I suspect in a few months she will be polling worse than Johnson did. Why? Because for all his many faults, he still reached parts no other tory could.
Mood matters and when the mood turns dark people want change. It always happens (sorry Ishmael) with seismic events. Black Wednesday was not entirely of the tories own making and it finished them off for a generation.
The series of catastrophes, some of which ARE of this mob's making, will finish them off for a new generation.
As it couldn't happen to a worse bunch of reprobates I am happy. But not for the country which is self-evidently going down the pan.
Truss has had a bounce, its not been enough to get a lead, but as we know, bounces imply upward movement to a peak, not instantaneous transposition. I suspect no lead but it may get very close.
If she didn't get a bounce at all, that would imply that all those people saying they wouldn't vote Conservative again while Johnson was leader were lying? Or is this effect true but counteracted by other people who have now decided they won't vote Conservative because they liked BJ and he's gone? Dunno.
Eh, "people saying that they wouldn't vote Conservative again while Johnson was leader" have done exactly that. The statement makes no suggestion of how they might vote after Johnson has been replaced.
Last week's local by elections suggested she has already turned the tide. Let's see if it continues this week. Lancashire West by election coming up in say 6 weeks. Bit of a red wall area?
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Similarly sub 50 for Labour would ring alarms
A LibDem gain of course would really put the cat among the pigeons! And is of course highly unlikely! If "highly" is quite high enough!!
Yes this one is beyond even the mighty orange hammer of Thor Davey im afraid
Am surprised labour did so well there. Doesn't look much different from a lot of the red wall seats that went blue.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
6 years is a third of childhood, that absolutely is much of someone's childhood. If you consider childhood as pre-teen then its half of it.
Its not most, but it is definitely much.
It's a chunk, but not "a great quantity of" which is what Chambers says, especially as it was pre-teen anyway, so of very little political significance.
6 years absolutely is "a great quantity of".
Primary school years 1 to 6 unsurprisingly enough lasts for six years, oh and its pre-teen too. Are you seriously suggesting primary school is not "much of childhood"?
In terms of how much a child does absorb of its environment and politics - which is what Ms Truss is playing on - yes, 6 years is not a lot especially when biased towards the primary years. It'sd not as if she went to secondary in Scotland, still less uni like Mr Brown.
Well she didn't absorb much from her parents, so it's pretty well moot anyway.
Paisley is hardly a SLD stronghold, and I don't recall it ever being ...
That's good news - I was concerned about a US trade deal. Huzzah!
Membership of the CPTPP will come first as our application has already been submitted, and in time expect the US to join this huge and developing trading block
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
What about the Louisiana Purchase as a prototype for Russia buying Crimea?
The slight problem tis the large number of Ukrainians from the Crimea who wouldn't like that. Or the rest of the Ukrainian population, either.
Might as well suggest that the UK buys the Pale of Calais from France.
Or that the US buys Greenland from Norway.
That's up there with selling London Bridge. Wasn't it associated with Denmark; maybe still is.
That's good news - I was concerned about a US trade deal. Huzzah!
Membership of the CPTPP will come first as our application has already been submitted, and in time expect the US to join this huge and developing trading block
Yes, I think that may be inevitable, but I'm not in a hurry for them to do so tbh. Should they resume their plans to join, it must be under existing terms, not rewriting everything to suit them, and hopefully the existing membership (by then including the UK) insists on this.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
Suppose Thatcher hadn't sent a taskforce to retake the Falklands, and Argentina had shipped thousands of Argentines to the islands over the course of eight years, while victimising the pre-1982 residents so many of them fled.
How meaningful would a 1990 Falklands Islands status referendum have been in those circumstances?
The suggestion of a referendum in Crimea, given the events of the past eight years, is completely risible. It would reward Russia's aggression and teach dictators that they can legitimise occupation by a process of ethnic cleansing and resettlement.
i did not suggest a referendum , referendums do not solve practical issues if locals do not want a certain government . Just realpolitik really.
Referendums are more likely to be used by Russia as a means of escalation.
Dmitry Medvedev has welcomed the intention of Russia's proxy Donbas "republics" to hold annexation "referendums"
Here is a report about the movement of Russian submarines from 14 September, six days ago.
Today's story about "Britain says" is a rehash. Perhaps it's the nearest that brand managers could find to the "Britain conquers Everest" story that was put out on the same day as the 1953 coronation. Was Daniel Craig in the Abbey yesterday?
What I would like to know is whether Russia has changed the number of SSBNs it has on patrol.
Last week's local by elections suggested she has already turned the tide. Let's see if it continues this week. Lancashire West by election coming up in say 6 weeks. Bit of a red wall area?
I wonder how the bookies will price up the tories for this seat...?
Entailed having both his femurs broken, and adjustable metal nails inserted down their centers. Each nail is made of titanium, which is both flexible and sturdy, like bone, and about the size of a piccolo. The nails were extended one millimeter every day for about 90 days via a magnetic remote control. Once the broken bones heal, ta-da: a newer, taller John.
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Similarly sub 50 for Labour would ring alarms
A LibDem gain of course would really put the cat among the pigeons! And is of course highly unlikely! If "highly" is quite high enough!!
Yes this one is beyond even the mighty orange hammer of Thor Davey im afraid
Am surprised labour did so well there. Doesn't look much different from a lot of the red wall seats that went blue.
A lot of commuter belt round there - not really fitting the profile of 'left behind' WWC characteristic of 'red wall' (though tbh that term is irritatingly protean).
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
What about the Louisiana Purchase as a prototype for Russia buying Crimea?
The slight problem tis the large number of Ukrainians from the Crimea who wouldn't like that. Or the rest of the Ukrainian population, either.
Might as well suggest that the UK buys the Pale of Calais from France.
Or that the US buys Greenland from Norway.
That's up there with selling London Bridge. Wasn't it associated with Denmark; maybe still is.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
It is very "sort-of," though.
Going back in time, it's been legally Ukrainian since 1954 (66 years - since 1991 as an oblast of Ukraine, and from 1954-1991 as part of the Ukraine SSR). For 9 years before that, it was an oblast of the Russian SSR, and for 24 years before that, an independent SSR within the Soviet Union.
From 1783-1917 (134 years) it was indeed part of Russia, but before that, it was all over the place (Crimean Khanate from 1443-1783, going further back, we've got the Golden Horde, Principality of Theodoro, Venetians, Genoans, and before them, much of it was under the Kievan Rus (the predecessors of Ukraine, anyway).
Very complicated history, and only a fraction of it was under the Russians.
Crimea was never an SSR. Before 1945 it was one of many ASSRs within the RSFSR. In 1945 its status changed within the RSFSR from ASSR to oblast.
In 1956 it was transferred from the RSFSR to Ukraine as an oblast. I.e. it went from oblast of RSFSR to oblast of Ukraine.
In 1991 it became an ASSR again, but this time in Ukraine. In 1992 the Crimean parliament declared the Republic of Crimea. The Ukrainian government did not like that one bit. In 1995 Ukrainian forces grabbed the elected president of Crimea and chucked him on a plane to Moscow.
The status of Sevastopol is even more complicated.
On the trade deal, the Democrats clearly have issues with Britain.
Trump himself openly admitted how the Brexit result was a big springboard for his Presidency. In voting to leave, Brits told Dem superhero Barack to go f8ck himself, after he campaigned for remain.
Entailed having both his femurs broken, and adjustable metal nails inserted down their centers. Each nail is made of titanium, which is both flexible and sturdy, like bone, and about the size of a piccolo. The nails were extended one millimeter every day for about 90 days via a magnetic remote control. Once the broken bones heal, ta-da: a newer, taller John.
Heightism is a real problem. If you want to get ahead in business, love or life generally, be tall. Average is not enough.
Another advantage of WFH - no one knows how tall/short you are on a Teams or Zoom call.
Absolutely.
A new colleague started work late 2020. I finally met her in April this year, as she walked into a Computer Lab just after I had finished teaching there. She was wearing a mask, and I didn't recognise her at first, although we had had regular meetings via Zoom over the 18 Months. The mask was one factor but an important factor in my not recognising her is that she is much shorter than her online screen presence suggests.
We weren't queue jumping in the same way as there were no parties in #10 during COVID.....
Worse than not going. How they live with themselves, I do not know.
QE2 was all about duty and an integral part of duty - esp as a Briton - is to wait patiently for your turn with things. This applies when queuing for a coffee, a bus, a bargain in the sales, and it most certainly applies to a queue to view the coffin of a recently deceased monarch.
If anybody doubts this they should just ask themselves what the Queen herself would have made of it. "Tut tut" is what I imagine she'd have said, which given her penchant for understatement says it all.
But I was one of those who correctly predicted that there would be no Truss bounce. Indeed, I suspect in a few months she will be polling worse than Johnson did. Why? Because for all his many faults, he still reached parts no other tory could.
Mood matters and when the mood turns dark people want change. It always happens (sorry Ishmael) with seismic events. Black Wednesday was not entirely of the tories own making and it finished them off for a generation.
The series of catastrophes, some of which ARE of this mob's making, will finish them off for a new generation.
As it couldn't happen to a worse bunch of reprobates I am happy. But not for the country which is self-evidently going down the pan.
Genuinely think this is too early to say. No other PM has taken office and then had the death of the Head of State after 70 years after just two days to deal with.
If there is no bounce after the next few weeks then you get to claim bragging rights, but not yet.
Burnham not interested in the seat apparently. He's as clear a "lay the favourite" as you'll ever see in a next leader market.
Also maybe shows he thinks the Cons will lose the next election.
Why is an MP in a cast iron labour seat resigning, with their party 10 points ahead in the polls and the government facing all sorts of crises....?
More interesting job probably with a better chance of actually fixing some of the problems she sees her constituents have...
Also I suspect it pays the same if not more and doesn't require x days a week away from home in London...
Personally I would blame it on Avanti's inability to run trains to London...
The precipitous decline of the WCML is a disgrace. One train an hour to London from Manchester (pre-pandemic it was every 20 mins), insane prices, stinky overcrowded trains. Virgin also had an onboard entertainment package. I realise it's not all down to the franchise owner, but I cannot conceive of how this could possibly be better value for the passenger and taxpayer.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
It is very "sort-of," though.
Going back in time, it's been legally Ukrainian since 1954 (66 years - since 1991 as an oblast of Ukraine, and from 1954-1991 as part of the Ukraine SSR). For 9 years before that, it was an oblast of the Russian SSR, and for 24 years before that, an independent SSR within the Soviet Union.
From 1783-1917 (134 years) it was indeed part of Russia, but before that, it was all over the place (Crimean Khanate from 1443-1783, going further back, we've got the Golden Horde, Principality of Theodoro, Venetians, Genoans, and before them, much of it was under the Kievan Rus (the predecessors of Ukraine, anyway).
Very complicated history, and only a fraction of it was under the Russians.
Crimea was never an SSR. Before 1945 it was one of many ASSRs within the RSFSR. In 1945 its status changed within the RSFSR from ASSR to oblast.
In 1956 it was transferred from the RSFSR to Ukraine as an oblast. I.e. it went from oblast of RSFSR to oblast of Ukraine.
In 1991 it became an ASSR again, but this time in Ukraine. In 1992 the Crimean parliament declared the Republic of Crimea. The Ukrainian government did not like that one bit. In 1995 Ukrainian forces grabbed the elected president of Crimea and chucked him on a plane to Moscow.
The status of Sevastopol is even more complicated.
Thank you for giving us the Russian troll version of history.
We weren't queue jumping in the same way as there were no parties in #10 during COVID.....
How they live with themselves, I do not know.
Am I alone in not understanding what they did wrong, if they were just there as reporters?
I think the perception is that they abused their press status to jump the queue. Whether that is right or wrong is neither here nor there, its what people think.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
It's half isn't it? Knock off 0-2 as infancy and start teens at 13
Nah, teens are children. As are babies. 0-18 is children.
We had been enjoying the direct from source opinions of a certain writer. Does this post mean that said writer will once more pretend to be someone else and post as them?
Unsure whether you are an actor daaarling instead of a writer. Or a less psychotic version of M Night Shylaman's Kevin Wendell Crumb. Who like your good self also has some female personas...
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
You'd have to hope that even if Putin was mad enough to order a nuclear strike, there would be enough sensible people to stop it.
Maybe that's wishful thinking. In late 44 and 45, Speer actively sought to negate the scorched earth that Hitler tried to ensure was the fate of the German nation.
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
They're losing alright. Badly. And are showing the world that the once-feared Soviet armed forces are a bit shit.
What does that leave them? Nukes. They are / were good at building rockets and warheads. So "fuck with us and we can nuke you" is their last remaining Big Bad deterrence. Which rather ceases to be so if they actually go nuclear and the northern hemisphere is largely reduced to radioactive glass.
So reminding us they have nukes - with "we can kill you all" is understandable. Crossing the nuclear threshold less so as it rather puts a crimp on the activities of Putin and his patrons if they get Minuteman'd to death.
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
When Suez happened, I don't recall the world saying that people should go lightly on the UK/France etc because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the French because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened a second time, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the US because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the USSR because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened again, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the US, French & UK because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
“Tatyana @Stanovaya whose predictions of the war have sadly for all of us been consistently true says the Kremlin with the Duma vote today and referendum announcement is gearing up for an "all-out war" unless Ukraine and the West back down.“
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
but that means a but of ethnic cleansing then doesnt it ? To restore a position where Ukraine will be wanted in the region by the locals. It may not be fair but practically you have to deal with todays reality not historicial claims or even past immigration. The war will never end if Crimea is taken , it may pause but never end - does Ukraine really wnat that in a region where they will not be welcome?
Invaders going back to their homeland after being repelled isn't ethnic cleansing.
Crimea is land that Ukraine was welcomed in until it was invaded. Once the invaders are repelled, the war will be over. Anyone who doesn't want to be Ukrainian, is welcome to return to Russia with their army.
All i am saying is by making Crimea a military prize , the war will drag on and may never truly end . Does Ukraine really want that ? Not sure
FWIW, Zelensky has said in recent days that they will recover it 'by diplomatic means'.
The amount of kit that the Russians left behind in the Kharkiv rout was equivalent to 5-8 battle groups:
Kherson falling would likely leave double that, maybe more. Not sure how Crimea defends itself once the bridge gets taken down to prevent further reinforcements. It would just be Kherson 2.0...
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
They're losing alright. Badly. And are showing the world that the once-feared Soviet armed forces are a bit shit.
What does that leave them? Nukes. They are / were good at building rockets and warheads. So "fuck with us and we can nuke you" is their last remaining Big Bad deterrence. Which rather ceases to be so if they actually go nuclear and the northern hemisphere is largely reduced to radioactive glass.
So reminding us they have nukes - with "we can kill you all" is understandable. Crossing the nuclear threshold less so as it rather puts a crimp on the activities of Putin and his patrons if they get Minuteman'd to death.
The thing is that the longer this war drags on the more shit they are revealed to be and the less threatening their nukes become too. Given that Russia's armed forces are so run down and shite, it seems entirely probable that their nukes are the same too and with tritium that has expired and is now useless.
And even if their nukes are launched, how many would hit their targets and how many would be intercepted by US/NATO defences?
But NATO weaponry has been shown to be working in tip top condition.
A nuclear war would have been global holocaust during the cold war, but a nuclear war today while devastating would likely see Russia reduced to glass while the West may see a couple of cities hit which would be tragic, but wouldn't be the end of humanity by any means. Quite frankly, Russia would likely lose even a nuclear war - and they must surely see that too.
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
When Suez happened, I don't recall the world saying that people should go lightly on the UK/France etc because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the French because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened a second time, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the US because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the USSR because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened again, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the US, French & UK because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
Though the Ukrainians are the ones with the winter gear supplied by the Norwegians. The Russians are still in summer uniforms, judging by the videos...
Though the Ukrainians are the ones with the winter gear supplied by the Norwegians. The Russians are still in summer uniforms, judging by the videos...
You'd think the one thing the Russians couldn't fuck up would be cold weather gear
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
Though the Ukrainians are the ones with the winter gear supplied by the Norwegians. The Russians are still in summer uniforms, judging by the videos...
You'd think the one thing the Russians couldn't fuck up would be cold weather gear
Corruption is rife.....like the way they ended up putting Chinese knock-off tyres on their vehicles that can't cope with the forces imposed with them on the battlefield.
Comments
How meaningful would a 1990 Falklands Islands status referendum have been in those circumstances?
The suggestion of a referendum in Crimea, given the events of the past eight years, is completely risible. It would reward Russia's aggression and teach dictators that they can legitimise occupation by a process of ethnic cleansing and resettlement.
Might as well suggest that the UK buys the Pale of Calais from France.
One for the doctors - I saw a story years back about using coral (suitably killed off) as infill for gaps in bones as a result of surgery. Apparently the bone would grow and absorb the coral, treating it as a scaffold. Did anything come of this?
Liberation of Crimea ends the war, it doesn't drag it on. Yes, absolutely, Ukraine will want that.
A Lesson From the Past for Ron DeSantis
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/09/18/reverse-freedom-ride-south-desantis-00057339
At the time of the purchase, the territory of Louisiana's non-native population was around 60,000 inhabitants, of whom half were enslaved Africans.[3]
It was relatively uninhabited by France.
'I Would Vote to Impeach Him Right Now'
When Republicans tried to oust a Supreme Court justice, it didn’t go well.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/09/16/when-republicans-tried-to-impeach-a-supreme-court-justice-00056744
There’s no single reason anyone opts for leg-lengthening surgery, but often at least one of those reasons has to do with impressing girls.
And yes heightism definitely exists there, but my experience of a lot of tech bros they have many more pressing issues when it comes to being attractive to the opposite sex than being a couple of inches under 6ft.
What do you get if you chase French people into a tropical swamp? Blues played on the accordian.
Always worth remembering that in some places (e.g. Stockport), the animosity between LD and Labour activists is real and often visceral.
Today's story about "Britain says" is a rehash. Perhaps it's the nearest that brand managers could find to the "Britain conquers Everest" story that was put out on the same day as the 1953 coronation. Was Daniel Craig in the Abbey yesterday?
What I would like to know is whether Russia has changed the number of SSBNs it has on patrol.
Going back in time, it's been legally Ukrainian since 1954 (66 years - since 1991 as an oblast of Ukraine, and from 1954-1991 as part of the Ukraine SSR). For 9 years before that, it was an oblast of the Russian SSR, and for 24 years before that, an independent SSR within the Soviet Union.
From 1783-1917 (134 years) it was indeed part of Russia, but before that, it was all over the place (Crimean Khanate from 1443-1783, going further back, we've got the Golden Horde, Principality of Theodoro, Venetians, Genoans, and before them, much of it was under the Kievan Rus (the predecessors of Ukraine, anyway).
Very complicated history, and only a fraction of it was under the Russians.
I didn't know that. Amazing what you can find out on the internet.
Apparently there is an old joke which varied according to the age of the teller - "Born in country A, lived in B, C, D etc. Then I left the village."
Lancashire West by election coming up in say 6 weeks. Bit of a red wall area?
Holly Willoughby and Philip Schofield: 'We saw the Queen for those who couldn't go'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/09/20/holly-willoughby-philip-schofield-saw-queen-who-couldnt-go/
Dmitry Medvedev has welcomed the intention of Russia's proxy Donbas "republics" to hold annexation "referendums"
After this, Russia could use "use all forces of self-defense" on the lands of eastern Ukraine that it occupies, he says amid 🇺🇦 offensive
https://twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1572184506290868230
Granted Medvedev is an alcoholic not entirely representative of Putin's regime, but he does tend to express the hardliner sentiments of the day.
I wonder how the bookies will price up the tories for this seat...?
In 1956 it was transferred from the RSFSR to Ukraine as an oblast. I.e. it went from oblast of RSFSR to oblast of Ukraine.
In 1991 it became an ASSR again, but this time in Ukraine.
In 1992 the Crimean parliament declared the Republic of Crimea.
The Ukrainian government did not like that one bit.
In 1995 Ukrainian forces grabbed the elected president of Crimea and chucked him on a plane to Moscow.
The status of Sevastopol is even more complicated.
Trump himself openly admitted how the Brexit result was a big springboard for his Presidency. In voting to leave, Brits told Dem superhero Barack to go f8ck himself, after he campaigned for remain.
Wtf - looks like she went back to the same farm?
A new colleague started work late 2020. I finally met her in April this year, as she walked into a Computer Lab just after I had finished teaching there. She was wearing a mask, and I didn't recognise her at first, although we had had regular meetings via Zoom over the 18 Months. The mask was one factor but an important factor in my not recognising her is that she is much shorter than her online screen presence suggests.
More interesting job probably with a better chance of actually fixing some of the problems she sees her constituents have...
Also I suspect it pays the same if not more and doesn't require x days a week away from home in London...
Personally I would blame it on Avanti's inability to run trains to London...
QE2 was all about duty and an integral part of duty - esp as a Briton - is to wait patiently for your turn with things. This applies when queuing for a coffee, a bus, a bargain in the sales, and it most certainly applies to a queue to view the coffin of a recently deceased monarch.
If anybody doubts this they should just ask themselves what the Queen herself would have made of it. "Tut tut" is what I imagine she'd have said, which given her penchant for understatement says it all.
If there is no bounce after the next few weeks then you get to claim bragging rights, but not yet.
“Judging by what is happening and still about to happen, this week marks either the eve of our imminent victory, or the eve of nuclear war.
I can't see anything third.”
https://twitter.com/m_simonyan/status/1572168609555701760?s=21&t=GyaUPDkrAcoaH8abfjx7og
That’s the editor of RT
"Scope? What, like shooting up at the Cabinet office, or something? Stuffing a cat up my arse and having a wank, what do you mean, scope?"
Classic early TTOI
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
Unsure whether you are an actor daaarling instead of a writer. Or a less psychotic version of M Night Shylaman's Kevin Wendell Crumb. Who like your good self also has some female personas...
Maybe that's wishful thinking. In late 44 and 45, Speer actively sought to negate the scorched earth that Hitler tried to ensure was the fate of the German nation.
What does that leave them? Nukes. They are / were good at building rockets and warheads. So "fuck with us and we can nuke you" is their last remaining Big Bad deterrence. Which rather ceases to be so if they actually go nuclear and the northern hemisphere is largely reduced to radioactive glass.
So reminding us they have nukes - with "we can kill you all" is understandable. Crossing the nuclear threshold less so as it rather puts a crimp on the activities of Putin and his patrons if they get Minuteman'd to death.
When Vietnam happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the French because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened a second time, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the US because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the USSR because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened again, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the US, French & UK because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
Hmmmmm.....
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014
- One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes
- In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine
- We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later)
- Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
Don't get me wrong, I have no desire to believe them either guilty or not guilty of queue-jumping.
|I just wonder whether the accusation is based on any facts or not.
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
But maybe I'm out of phase with the "Zeitgeist".
https://twitter.com/nat_vasilyeva/status/1572185563104686080?s=21&t=GyaUPDkrAcoaH8abfjx7og
The amount of kit that the Russians left behind in the Kharkiv rout was equivalent to 5-8 battle groups:
https://rattibha.com/thread/1571216692612669441?lang=en
Kherson falling would likely leave double that, maybe more. Not sure how Crimea defends itself once the bridge gets taken down to prevent further reinforcements. It would just be Kherson 2.0...
And even if their nukes are launched, how many would hit their targets and how many would be intercepted by US/NATO defences?
But NATO weaponry has been shown to be working in tip top condition.
A nuclear war would have been global holocaust during the cold war, but a nuclear war today while devastating would likely see Russia reduced to glass while the West may see a couple of cities hit which would be tragic, but wouldn't be the end of humanity by any means. Quite frankly, Russia would likely lose even a nuclear war - and they must surely see that too.
It wasn't entirely a non issue.
https://warontherocks.com/2018/10/how-close-did-the-united-states-actually-get-to-using-nuclear-weapons-in-vietnam-in-1968/
And Russian doctrine on the tactical use of nuclear weapons is slightly more permissive than that of the US, even back in '68.
Though the Ukrainians are the ones with the winter gear supplied by the Norwegians. The Russians are still in summer uniforms, judging by the videos...
Goodbye, see you next time Leon gets banned.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.