Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
He forgets that there are still already almost 200 excellent grammar schools in England now, even if not a single new grammar school is created under Truss
The point is that Truss has talked about new Grammar Schools because it pleases some people and that is never going to happen....
There's an adage about lucky generals and the same applies to lucky periods in office. And their opposite.
Mood matters, and when people look back on this 5 year parliament they will remember the worst pandemic since the great plague, war returning to Europe, the worst economic and cost of living crisis in a generation, and the death of the Queen.
Ill fortune seems to have followed the Conservatives around.
People want a change and there is nothing Liz Truss or her party can now do to restore belief.
They are in for a shellacking.
Absolutely wrong. I can't recall any major non political event damaging the party in government in this way: Falklands Diana 9/11 foot and mouth, merely by happening. Indeed 2 of those are widely perceived as boosting events.
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
He forgets that there are still already almost 200 excellent grammar schools in England now, even if not a single new grammar school is created under Truss
The point is that Truss has talked about new Grammar Schools because it pleases some people and that is never going to happen....
"From: Department for International Trade and The Rt Hon Elizabeth Truss MP Published 27 February 2020 [...]
The International Trade Secretary, Liz Truss said:
Securing an ambitious free trade agreement with the US is one of my top priorities, delivering benefits to towns across the whole of the UK from Edinburgh to Enniskillen."
Latest Russian ruse: immediate referendum in Kherson on joining Russia. Thereby making a recapture of the oblast an attack on the motherland and, presumably, either offering a chance for full mobilisation (though that would be suicidal) or more nuclear blackmail (which everyone would ignore).
Until the "new" Russian citizens find that their "Russian" passports mysteriously don't actually let them into "proper" Russia when they decide to get out of Dodge (or Donetsk).
Howdy all, long time PBers.....Looks like the government £2 flat fee bus policy is in reality going to end up in higher costs....
The changes mean that all single adult tickets in Bristol and Bath will be reduced to £2 - they are £2.20 right now - and returns will be cut from £4 to £3.50. But the price of a day rider will jump from £5.30 to £6 in Bristol, and from £5 in Bath to £5.60.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
But I was one of those who correctly predicted that there would be no Truss bounce. Indeed, I suspect in a few months she will be polling worse than Johnson did. Why? Because for all his many faults, he still reached parts no other tory could.
Mood matters and when the mood turns dark people want change. It always happens (sorry Ishmael) with seismic events. Black Wednesday was not entirely of the tories own making and it finished them off for a generation.
The series of catastrophes, some of which ARE of this mob's making, will finish them off for a new generation.
As it couldn't happen to a worse bunch of reprobates I am happy. But not for the country which is self-evidently going down the pan.
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
The US trade deal is never going to happen, because the terms of a trade deal would be unacceptable to either party.
Trade deals with the US are completely one-sided. That is unacceptable to us. And a trade deal that treats the parties as equals is unacceptable to the US.
Some of us have long said that a standalone “US trade deal” was almost impossible in practice, due to the need for it to pass the House pretty much line by line. The significant lobbying from especially US agriculture, healthcare and pharma industries, would almost certainly lead to a deadlock.
It does read well as a think-tank report though, as was highlighted up-thread.
What’s much more likely is a series of sectoral deals over time, that will eliminate tariffs on manufactured goods such as cars, and reduce NTBs on services such as consulting and finance.
In the medium term, persuading the USA back into the CP-TPP is the optimal solution.
There's an adage about lucky generals and the same applies to lucky periods in office. And their opposite.
Mood matters, and when people look back on this 5 year parliament they will remember the worst pandemic since the great plague, war returning to Europe, the worst economic and cost of living crisis in a generation, and the death of the Queen.
Ill fortune seems to have followed the Conservatives around.
People want a change and there is nothing Liz Truss or her party can now do to restore belief.
They are in for a shellacking.
Maybe. But, perhaps she is lucky. The collapse of the Russian position in Ukraine means this is unlikely to be prolonged war of attrition, with the prospect that commodity prices could fall sharply.
p.s. have a nice day. I don't loiter on here much these days. Too much pointless arguing from the usual suspects and not enough pause for thought.
p.s. Being off grid is great.
Do seriously fuck off with the stupidly wrong post - courteous pointing out of counterexamples - oh you are too thoughtless to argue with, I am flouncing schtick. Just flounce and stay flounced while we all laugh about how badly damaged Labour was by Di and 9/11.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
But I was one of those who correctly predicted that there would be no Truss bounce. Indeed, I suspect in a few months she will be polling worse than Johnson did. Why? Because for all his many faults, he still reached parts no other tory could.
Mood matters and when the mood turns dark people want change. It always happens (sorry Ishmael) with seismic events. Black Wednesday was not entirely of the tories own making and it finished them off for a generation.
The series of catastrophes, some of which ARE of this mob's making, will finish them off for a new generation.
As it couldn't happen to a worse bunch of reprobates I am happy. But not for the country which is self-evidently going down the pan.
Widely expected, see comments from virtually everyone about the con polling lead in September bet
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
The US trade deal is never going to happen, because the terms of a trade deal would be unacceptable to either party.
Trade deals with the US are completely one-sided. That is unacceptable to us. And a trade deal that treats the parties as equals is unacceptable to the US.
Which is why it was a very foolish pledge in the first place. At least a glimmer of realism is creeping over the horizon…
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
The US trade deal is never going to happen, because the terms of a trade deal would be unacceptable to either party.
Trade deals with the US are completely one-sided. That is unacceptable to us. And a trade deal that treats the parties as equals is unacceptable to the US.
Which is why it was a very foolish pledge in the first place. At least a glimmer of realism is creeping over the horizon…
Realism has been there for quite a while. Since Truss got going in International Trade the talk has pivoted rapidly away from speaking about the US to talking about more serious targets like CPTPP.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
But I was one of those who correctly predicted that there would be no Truss bounce. Indeed, I suspect in a few months she will be polling worse than Johnson did. Why? Because for all his many faults, he still reached parts no other tory could.
Mood matters and when the mood turns dark people want change. It always happens (sorry Ishmael) with seismic events. Black Wednesday was not entirely of the tories own making and it finished them off for a generation.
The series of catastrophes, some of which ARE of this mob's making, will finish them off for a new generation.
As it couldn't happen to a worse bunch of reprobates I am happy. But not for the country which is self-evidently going down the pan.
Truss has had a bounce, its not been enough to get a lead, but as we know, bounces imply upward movement to a peak, not instantaneous transposition. I suspect no lead but it may get very close.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
It's half isn't it? Knock off 0-2 as infancy and start teens at 13
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
6 years is a third of childhood, that absolutely is much of someone's childhood. If you consider childhood as pre-teen then its half of it.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
It's half isn't it? Knock off 0-2 as infancy and start teens at 13
Nah, teens are children. As are babies. 0-18 is children.
Howdy all, long time PBers.....Looks like the government £2 flat fee bus policy is in reality going to end up in higher costs....
The changes mean that all single adult tickets in Bristol and Bath will be reduced to £2 - they are £2.20 right now - and returns will be cut from £4 to £3.50. But the price of a day rider will jump from £5.30 to £6 in Bristol, and from £5 in Bath to £5.60.
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
He forgets that there are still already almost 200 excellent grammar schools in England now, even if not a single new grammar school is created under Truss
Any school can appear to be excellent (based on exam results) if they are able to pick and choose who gets to attend.
How do the value added metrics of these grammars compare with the rest?
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
It's half isn't it? Knock off 0-2 as infancy and start teens at 13
Nah, teens are children. As are babies. 0-18 is children.
And 6 years is much of that period.
6 years is roughly the amount of time that children believe in Santa. Babies and infants are too young, they don't understand what is going on. Once you get to 9 or 10 people stop believing. So that only leaves about 6 years of childhood in which people actually believe in Santa, and you'd suggest that isn't "much" of childhood?
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
The US trade deal is never going to happen, because the terms of a trade deal would be unacceptable to either party.
Trade deals with the US are completely one-sided. That is unacceptable to us. And a trade deal that treats the parties as equals is unacceptable to the US.
Which is why it was a very foolish pledge in the first place. At least a glimmer of realism is creeping over the horizon…
Realism has been there for quite a while. Since Truss got going in International Trade the talk has pivoted rapidly away from speaking about the US to talking about more serious targets like CPTPP.
I think there are deals to be done in individual sectors, and also through CPTPP if America rejoins.
But a headline-grabbing, overarching deal is very unlikely in the short to medium term for the reasons stated.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
Nicola's policy remains as it has been for ages: Make lots of noise, talk about law, justice and grievance, but under no circumstances have a second referendum in any currently foreseeable circumstances.
At what point Scots who really want independence and are prepared to take a risk notice this remains uncertain. It seems obvious to me that the Tories spotted it some time ago. They keep the nuclear option up their sleeve for just in case: Allow a Ref2 at a time of their choice.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
6 years is a third of childhood, that absolutely is much of someone's childhood. If you consider childhood as pre-teen then its half of it.
Its not most, but it is definitely much.
It's a chunk, but not "a great quantity of" which is what Chambers says, especially as it was pre-teen anyway, so of very little political significance.
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
He forgets that there are still already almost 200 excellent grammar schools in England now, even if not a single new grammar school is created under Truss
Any school can appear to be excellent (based on exam results) if they are able to pick and choose who gets to attend.
How do the value added metrics of these grammars compare with the rest?
A misleading question because if you are predicted all 8s and come out with all 8s however good the education you are showing no value added.
Actually, that said, very often grammar schools do provide a better academic education. There is usually much less disruption, and the competition is to see who can work the hardest rather than who can be the biggest obnoxious twat. Children also usually aren't bullied for being bright, unlike in most comps.
This is one reason why the government eventually ditched VA as a measure in OFSTED inspections.
However, that then had the unfortunate consequences of meaning grammars were compared directly to PRUs which all had to be immediately graded 3 or 4 as a result, because both results and behaviour are crap. Due to them being *checks notes* PRUs where children who simply cannot behave are sent.
Uganda reports a case of #Ebola, caused by the Ebola Sudan virus. It is the first outbreak involving Ebola Sudan since 2012, I believe. Most outbreaks in recent years have been caused by Ebola Zaire virus. The 2 licensed Ebola vaccines do not protect against Ebola Sudan. https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1572170542358343682
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
He forgets that there are still already almost 200 excellent grammar schools in England now, even if not a single new grammar school is created under Truss
Any school can appear to be excellent (based on exam results) if they are able to pick and choose who gets to attend.
How do the value added metrics of these grammars compare with the rest?
Very well for the working class, lower income pupils who get into them
The Russians retreated so quickly from Kharkiv, that they left behind a latest-generation T-90M tank, one of what’s believed to be only a few dozen, apparently intact. Maybe it ran out of fuel?
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
It's half isn't it? Knock off 0-2 as infancy and start teens at 13
Nah, teens are children. As are babies. 0-18 is children.
And 6 years is much of that period.
6 years is roughly the amount of time that children believe in Santa. Babies and infants are too young, they don't understand what is going on. Once you get to 9 or 10 people stop believing. So that only leaves about 6 years of childhood in which people actually believe in Santa, and you'd suggest that isn't "much" of childhood?
Legally defined as 0-18 (or 0-16). Your defintion is remarkable.
"I have two babies, two Santa-believers, and a Kevin."
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
6 years is a third of childhood, that absolutely is much of someone's childhood. If you consider childhood as pre-teen then its half of it.
Its not most, but it is definitely much.
It's a chunk, but not "a great quantity of" which is what Chambers says, especially as it was pre-teen anyway, so of very little political significance.
6 years absolutely is "a great quantity of".
Primary school years 1 to 6 unsurprisingly enough lasts for six years, oh and its pre-teen too. Are you seriously suggesting primary school is not "much of childhood"?
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
6 years is a third of childhood, that absolutely is much of someone's childhood. If you consider childhood as pre-teen then its half of it.
Its not most, but it is definitely much.
It's a chunk, but not "a great quantity of" which is what Chambers says, especially as it was pre-teen anyway, so of very little political significance.
6 years absolutely is "a great quantity of".
Primary school years 1 to 6 unsurprisingly enough lasts for six years, oh and its pre-teen too. Are you seriously suggesting primary school is not "much of childhood"?
In terms of how much a child does absorb of its environment and politics - which is what Ms Truss is playing on - yes, 6 years is not a lot especially when biased towards the primary years. It'sd not as if she went to secondary in Scotland, still less uni like Mr Brown.
But I was one of those who correctly predicted that there would be no Truss bounce. Indeed, I suspect in a few months she will be polling worse than Johnson did. Why? Because for all his many faults, he still reached parts no other tory could.
Mood matters and when the mood turns dark people want change. It always happens (sorry Ishmael) with seismic events. Black Wednesday was not entirely of the tories own making and it finished them off for a generation.
The series of catastrophes, some of which ARE of this mob's making, will finish them off for a new generation.
As it couldn't happen to a worse bunch of reprobates I am happy. But not for the country which is self-evidently going down the pan.
Truss has had a bounce, its not been enough to get a lead, but as we know, bounces imply upward movement to a peak, not instantaneous transposition. I suspect no lead but it may get very close.
If she didn't get a bounce at all, that would imply that all those people saying they wouldn't vote Conservative again while Johnson was leader were lying? Or is this effect true but counteracted by other people who have now decided they won't vote Conservative because they liked BJ and he's gone? Dunno.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Politically not going to fly in the Ukraine, I think. 2014 ended that as a possibility. Remember that Putin himself pissed on the existing deal about the naval base there.
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
He forgets that there are still already almost 200 excellent grammar schools in England now, even if not a single new grammar school is created under Truss
Any school can appear to be excellent (based on exam results) if they are able to pick and choose who gets to attend.
How do the value added metrics of these grammars compare with the rest?
A misleading question because if you are predicted all 8s and come out with all 8s however good the education you are showing no value added.
Actually, that said, very often grammar schools do provide a better academic education. There is usually much less disruption, and the competition is to see who can work the hardest rather than who can be the biggest obnoxious twat. Children also usually aren't bullied for being bright, unlike in most comps.
This is one reason why the government eventually ditched VA as a measure in OFSTED inspections.
However, that then had the unfortunate consequences of meaning grammars were compared directly to PRUs which all had to be immediately graded 3 or 4 as a result, because both results and behaviour are crap. Due to them being *checks notes* PRUs where children who simply cannot behave are sent.
Yes, the stats game in education is riddled with confounding factors, and misleading comparisons.
The point about grammars providing well for academic kids is an entirely valid one. You can, however, say very much the same for good (yet still comprehensive) 6th form colleges.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
The Russians retreated so quickly from Kharkiv, that they left behind a latest-generation T-90M tank, one of what’s believed to be only a few dozen, apparently intact. Maybe it ran out of fuel?
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
But I was one of those who correctly predicted that there would be no Truss bounce. Indeed, I suspect in a few months she will be polling worse than Johnson did. Why? Because for all his many faults, he still reached parts no other tory could.
Mood matters and when the mood turns dark people want change. It always happens (sorry Ishmael) with seismic events. Black Wednesday was not entirely of the tories own making and it finished them off for a generation.
The series of catastrophes, some of which ARE of this mob's making, will finish them off for a new generation.
As it couldn't happen to a worse bunch of reprobates I am happy. But not for the country which is self-evidently going down the pan.
Truss has had a bounce, its not been enough to get a lead, but as we know, bounces imply upward movement to a peak, not instantaneous transposition. I suspect no lead but it may get very close.
If she didn't get a bounce at all, that would imply that all those people saying they wouldn't vote Conservative again while Johnson was leader were lying? Or is this effect true but counteracted by other people who have now decided they won't vote Conservative because they liked BJ and he's gone? Dunno.
Well her bounce thus far such as it is seems to be a hardening of certainty to vote/Johnson gone relief bounce. Normal service should show us if there are any other bounce factors to come into play.
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
He forgets that there are still already almost 200 excellent grammar schools in England now, even if not a single new grammar school is created under Truss
Any school can appear to be excellent (based on exam results) if they are able to pick and choose who gets to attend.
How do the value added metrics of these grammars compare with the rest?
A misleading question because if you are predicted all 8s and come out with all 8s however good the education you are showing no value added.
Actually, that said, very often grammar schools do provide a better academic education. There is usually much less disruption, and the competition is to see who can work the hardest rather than who can be the biggest obnoxious twat. Children also usually aren't bullied for being bright, unlike in most comps.
This is one reason why the government eventually ditched VA as a measure in OFSTED inspections.
However, that then had the unfortunate consequences of meaning grammars were compared directly to PRUs which all had to be immediately graded 3 or 4 as a result, because both results and behaviour are crap. Due to them being *checks notes* PRUs where children who simply cannot behave are sent.
Yes, the stats game in education is riddled with confounding factors, and misleading comparisons.
The point about grammars providing well for academic kids is an entirely valid one. You can, however, say very much the same for good (yet still comprehensive) 6th form colleges.
sixth form colleges are de facto selective. To get into them, you need the right GCSEs in the right subjects. Those who are not going to do well, or will have no interest in the subject, are filtered out there and end up in a different college environment.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Politically not going to fly in the Ukraine, I think. 2014 ended that as a possibility. Remember that Putin himself pissed on the existing deal about the naval base there.
Yep, there’s no way Ukraine now wants anything less than the pre-2014 border as a settlement. The Russian occupation of Crimea is not recognised internationally, and the Ukranians are very much of the mindset that Crimea is Ukrainian.
Sevastopol will be the new Ukranian Navy base, protecting the grain exports and O&G exploration in the area.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
6 years is a third of childhood, that absolutely is much of someone's childhood. If you consider childhood as pre-teen then its half of it.
Its not most, but it is definitely much.
It's a chunk, but not "a great quantity of" which is what Chambers says, especially as it was pre-teen anyway, so of very little political significance.
6 years absolutely is "a great quantity of".
Primary school years 1 to 6 unsurprisingly enough lasts for six years, oh and its pre-teen too. Are you seriously suggesting primary school is not "much of childhood"?
In terms of how much a child does absorb of its environment and politics - which is what Ms Truss is playing on - yes, 6 years is not a lot especially when biased towards the primary years. It'sd not as if she went to secondary in Scotland, still less uni like Mr Brown.
Well she didn't absorb much from her parents, so it's pretty well moot anyway.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
6 years is a third of childhood, that absolutely is much of someone's childhood. If you consider childhood as pre-teen then its half of it.
Its not most, but it is definitely much.
It's a chunk, but not "a great quantity of" which is what Chambers says, especially as it was pre-teen anyway, so of very little political significance.
6 years absolutely is "a great quantity of".
Primary school years 1 to 6 unsurprisingly enough lasts for six years, oh and its pre-teen too. Are you seriously suggesting primary school is not "much of childhood"?
In terms of how much a child does absorb of its environment and politics - which is what Ms Truss is playing on - yes, 6 years is not a lot especially when biased towards the primary years. It'sd not as if she went to secondary in Scotland, still less uni like Mr Brown.
Oh now you're being silly. So you want to down-weight primary schooling as not a significant part of childhood because people don't pay as much attention to politics, but you want to include being babies? That's inconsistent. And I don't know anyone who counts uni as part of childhood, uni is for adults.
Primary school lasts six years and is much of childhood. Secondary school lasts six years and is also much of childhood. Its silly to pretend otherwise.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
6 years is a third of childhood, that absolutely is much of someone's childhood. If you consider childhood as pre-teen then its half of it.
Its not most, but it is definitely much.
It's a chunk, but not "a great quantity of" which is what Chambers says, especially as it was pre-teen anyway, so of very little political significance.
6 years absolutely is "a great quantity of".
Primary school years 1 to 6 unsurprisingly enough lasts for six years, oh and its pre-teen too. Are you seriously suggesting primary school is not "much of childhood"?
In terms of how much a child does absorb of its environment and politics - which is what Ms Truss is playing on - yes, 6 years is not a lot especially when biased towards the primary years. It'sd not as if she went to secondary in Scotland, still less uni like Mr Brown.
Well she didn't absorb much from her parents, so it's pretty well moot anyway.
Paisley is hardly a SLD stronghold, and I don't recall it ever being ...
But I was one of those who correctly predicted that there would be no Truss bounce. Indeed, I suspect in a few months she will be polling worse than Johnson did. Why? Because for all his many faults, he still reached parts no other tory could.
Mood matters and when the mood turns dark people want change. It always happens (sorry Ishmael) with seismic events. Black Wednesday was not entirely of the tories own making and it finished them off for a generation.
The series of catastrophes, some of which ARE of this mob's making, will finish them off for a new generation.
As it couldn't happen to a worse bunch of reprobates I am happy. But not for the country which is self-evidently going down the pan.
Truss has had a bounce, its not been enough to get a lead, but as we know, bounces imply upward movement to a peak, not instantaneous transposition. I suspect no lead but it may get very close.
If she didn't get a bounce at all, that would imply that all those people saying they wouldn't vote Conservative again while Johnson was leader were lying? Or is this effect true but counteracted by other people who have now decided they won't vote Conservative because they liked BJ and he's gone? Dunno.
Well her bounce thus far such as it is seems to be a hardening of certainty to vote/Johnson gone relief bounce. Normal service should show us if there are any other bounce factors to come into play.
Unlike BJ bouncing around, she is going to plough a furrow and is prepared to do unpopular things. A stronger leader and a more principled and consistent one.
I'm pretty sure this is correct - how this affects election result is difficult to judge I think, especially so early in her tenure. A very large portion of the electorate have still never heard of her.
@Theuniondivvie asked a couple of weeks ago what proportion of inwards migration to Edinburgh came from RUK (and was therefore responsible for high housing costs here).
NRS stats (2018-19, pre pandemic) show that Edinburgh actually had one of the lowest rates of inwards migration from RUK relative to international migration, similar to other Scottish cities. It's rural areas that see the most RUK immigration (D&G, Borders, Orkney etc).
Where Edinburgh does differ is rates of immigration from other parts of Scotland - the smallest of all LAs, relative to other types of immigration. The highest rates are the rich, Scottish enclaves of E.Dunbartonshire, E.Ren etc
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
That's not a completely globally unique situation.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
People in Crimea wanted to be a part of Ukraine. They voted for that in 1991.
Many will be refugees now because of Russia's invasion, and many living in Crimea currently will be Russian invaders, but repel the Russian invaders and it of course will change again.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
6 years is a third of childhood, that absolutely is much of someone's childhood. If you consider childhood as pre-teen then its half of it.
Its not most, but it is definitely much.
It's a chunk, but not "a great quantity of" which is what Chambers says, especially as it was pre-teen anyway, so of very little political significance.
6 years absolutely is "a great quantity of".
Primary school years 1 to 6 unsurprisingly enough lasts for six years, oh and its pre-teen too. Are you seriously suggesting primary school is not "much of childhood"?
In terms of how much a child does absorb of its environment and politics - which is what Ms Truss is playing on - yes, 6 years is not a lot especially when biased towards the primary years. It'sd not as if she went to secondary in Scotland, still less uni like Mr Brown.
Oh now you're being silly. So you want to down-weight primary schooling as not a significant part of childhood because people don't pay as much attention to politics, but you want to include being babies? That's inconsistent. And I don't know anyone who counts uni as part of childhood, uni is for adults.
Primary school lasts six years and is much of childhood. Secondary school lasts six years and is also much of childhood. Its silly to pretend otherwise.
Uni is a separate matter - where she would have had a much stronger claim that didn't rely on less than half childhood.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Politically not going to fly in the Ukraine, I think. 2014 ended that as a possibility. Remember that Putin himself pissed on the existing deal about the naval base there.
Cash is king and can be securely handed over via a third party. Something along the lines of buying Crimea would not surprise me. It's win-win, and Russia has got lots of money from oil and gas with nothing else to spend it on thanks to sanctions.
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
He forgets that there are still already almost 200 excellent grammar schools in England now, even if not a single new grammar school is created under Truss
Any school can appear to be excellent (based on exam results) if they are able to pick and choose who gets to attend.
How do the value added metrics of these grammars compare with the rest?
A misleading question because if you are predicted all 8s and come out with all 8s however good the education you are showing no value added.
Actually, that said, very often grammar schools do provide a better academic education. There is usually much less disruption, and the competition is to see who can work the hardest rather than who can be the biggest obnoxious twat. Children also usually aren't bullied for being bright, unlike in most comps.
This is one reason why the government eventually ditched VA as a measure in OFSTED inspections.
However, that then had the unfortunate consequences of meaning grammars were compared directly to PRUs which all had to be immediately graded 3 or 4 as a result, because both results and behaviour are crap. Due to them being *checks notes* PRUs where children who simply cannot behave are sent.
Yes, the stats game in education is riddled with confounding factors, and misleading comparisons.
The point about grammars providing well for academic kids is an entirely valid one. You can, however, say very much the same for good (yet still comprehensive) 6th form colleges.
sixth form colleges are de facto selective. To get into them, you need the right GCSEs in the right subjects. Those who are not going to do well, or will have no interest in the subject, are filtered out there and end up in a different college environment.
When I did my A levels at one (in Oxford) - attendance was purely voluntary. 2 classes per week in the various subjects, most of the work was in your own time.
Anyone who wasn't *really* interested didn't show up.
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
That's not a completely globally unique situation.
I didn't say it wasn't common - just pointing out the difficulty in working out what the locals want....
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
What about the Louisiana Purchase as a prototype for Russia buying Crimea?
Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen: 1 US trade deal 2 Fracking 3 Grammar schools
He forgets that there are still already almost 200 excellent grammar schools in England now, even if not a single new grammar school is created under Truss
Any school can appear to be excellent (based on exam results) if they are able to pick and choose who gets to attend.
How do the value added metrics of these grammars compare with the rest?
A misleading question because if you are predicted all 8s and come out with all 8s however good the education you are showing no value added.
Actually, that said, very often grammar schools do provide a better academic education. There is usually much less disruption, and the competition is to see who can work the hardest rather than who can be the biggest obnoxious twat. Children also usually aren't bullied for being bright, unlike in most comps.
This is one reason why the government eventually ditched VA as a measure in OFSTED inspections.
However, that then had the unfortunate consequences of meaning grammars were compared directly to PRUs which all had to be immediately graded 3 or 4 as a result, because both results and behaviour are crap. Due to them being *checks notes* PRUs where children who simply cannot behave are sent.
Yes, the stats game in education is riddled with confounding factors, and misleading comparisons.
The point about grammars providing well for academic kids is an entirely valid one. You can, however, say very much the same for good (yet still comprehensive) 6th form colleges.
sixth form colleges are de facto selective. To get into them, you need the right GCSEs in the right subjects. Those who are not going to do well, or will have no interest in the subject, are filtered out there and end up in a different college environment.
They are selective only to the extent of actually being committed to study at A Level, so they are selecting by motivation rather than ability. As for the 'right subjects', again the test can be largely one of motivation rather than ability. https://www.greenhead.ac.uk/courses-apply/entry-requirements
That seems both far fairer, and far more 'comprehensive' than grammar school selection.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
but that means a but of ethnic cleansing then doesnt it ? To restore a position where Ukraine will be wanted in the region by the locals. It may not be fair but practically you have to deal with todays reality not historicial claims or even past immigration. The war will never end if Crimea is taken , it may pause but never end - does Ukraine really wnat that in a region where they will not be welcome?
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
That's not a completely globally unique situation.
But Ukraine being in a position where they are fighting to regain their lost territory, and having the arms and ability to do so, is fairly unique.
Not many countries can liberate occupied territory.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
but that means a but of ethnic cleansing then doesnt it ? To restore a position where Ukraine will be wanted in the region by the locals. It may not be fair but practically you have to deal with todays reality not historicial claims or even past immigration. The war will never end if Crimea is taken , it may pause but never end - does Ukraine really wnat that in a region where they will not be welcome?
The residents of Crimea have a simple choice, it’s the same choice as the Russian Army.
Either they accept that Ukraine is Ukranian, or go back to Russia. It’s a big place Russia, there’s enough room for everyone.
The Russians retreated so quickly from Kharkiv, that they left behind a latest-generation T-90M tank, one of what’s believed to be only a few dozen, apparently intact. Maybe it ran out of fuel?
Or something broke. Tanks are remarkably fragile - historically, many armed offensives ran to of steam when the attackers ran out of tanks. Not destroyed - far more were out of action due to mechanical failures. This is a steady theme from the first employment of tanks in WWI, onwards.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
but that means a but of ethnic cleansing then doesnt it ? To restore a position where Ukraine will be wanted in the region by the locals. It may not be fair but practically you have to deal with todays reality not historicial claims or even past immigration. The war will never end if Crimea is taken , it may pause but never end - does Ukraine really wnat that in a region where they will not be welcome?
Only pre-2014 residents get to vote in the plebecite?
There are some indications that errrr... incomers since then are abandoning the place.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
What about the Louisiana Purchase as a prototype for Russia buying Crimea?
No chance. Louisiana was relatively uninhabited and was land France couldn't really control, and the USA wasn't at war with France either.
Crimea is sovereign territory of Ukraine that many Ukrainians live/lived in and want their home back, and Ukraine is literally at war regaining its lost territory. What possible reason would they have to sell and upset their own citizens by selling their home?
“We are continuing to find numerous bodies with marks of violent death, including broken ribs and skulls, men with hands tied behind their backs, with broken jaws, with their genitals cut off,” Yenin said.
He said that law enforcement officers have exhumed 52 bodies from 48 graves...
We weren't queue jumping in the same way as there were no parties in #10 during COVID.....
If you’re going to use the media gallery, it’s expected that you actually film something there - other than yourselves being in the room looking at the coffin, having not queued up with everyone else.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
but that means a but of ethnic cleansing then doesnt it ? To restore a position where Ukraine will be wanted in the region by the locals. It may not be fair but practically you have to deal with todays reality not historicial claims or even past immigration. The war will never end if Crimea is taken , it may pause but never end - does Ukraine really wnat that in a region where they will not be welcome?
Invaders going back to their homeland after being repelled isn't ethnic cleansing.
Crimea is land that Ukraine was welcomed in until it was invaded. Once the invaders are repelled, the war will be over. Anyone who doesn't want to be Ukrainian, is welcome to return to Russia with their army.
We weren't queue jumping in the same way as there were no parties in #10 during COVID.....
Its hardly crime of the century . But Becks and Reid certainly showed them up . They should just say sorry and say they have reflected upon whether a bit of celebrity status went to thier heads (which lets face it happens all the time with celebrities) and will try to be more level headed going forward. Sometimes you just get outclassed and then have to be humble enough to realise and admit it
Entailed having both his femurs broken, and adjustable metal nails inserted down their centers. Each nail is made of titanium, which is both flexible and sturdy, like bone, and about the size of a piccolo. The nails were extended one millimeter every day for about 90 days via a magnetic remote control. Once the broken bones heal, ta-da: a newer, taller John.
We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.
First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK
From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?
46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
The reason there has likely been a shift to No are not just to do with the Queen's death and dying in Scotland and showing the benefits of one united UK under one monarch.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Buying unpopulated* areas. Like Alaska and the northern Midwest.
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
What about the Louisiana Purchase as a prototype for Russia buying Crimea?
No chance. Louisiana was relatively uninhabited and was land France couldn't really control, and the USA wasn't at war with France either.
Crimea is sovereign territory of Ukraine that many Ukrainians live/lived in and want their home back, and Ukraine is literally at war regaining its lost territory. What possible reason would they have to sell and upset their own citizens by selling their home?
"Louisiana was relatively uninhabited". This was not the modern US state, but a huge tranche of the mid-West.
'The Louisiana Purchase was negotiated between France and the United States, without consulting the various Indian tribes who lived on the land and who had not ceded the land to any colonial power. The four decades following the Louisiana Purchase was an era of court decisions removing many tribes from their lands east of the Mississippi for resettlement in the new territory, culminating in the Trail of Tears.[62]
The purchase of the Louisiana Territory led to debates over the idea of indigenous land rights that persisted into the mid 20th century. The many court cases and tribal suits in the 1930s for historical damages flowing from the Louisiana Purchase led to the Indian Claims Commission Act (ICCA) in 1946. Felix S. Cohen, Interior Department Lawyer who helped pass ICCA, is often quoted as saying, "practically all of the real estate acquired by the United States since 1776 was purchased not from Napoleon or any other emperor or czar but from its original Indian owners", roughly estimating that Indians had received twenty times as much as France had for the territory bought by the United States, "somewhat in excess of 800 million dollars".[1][2] More recently, the total cost to the U.S. government of all subsequent treaties and financial settlements over the land has been estimated to be around 2.6 billion dollars.[1][2]'
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
but that means a but of ethnic cleansing then doesnt it ? To restore a position where Ukraine will be wanted in the region by the locals. It may not be fair but practically you have to deal with todays reality not historicial claims or even past immigration. The war will never end if Crimea is taken , it may pause but never end - does Ukraine really wnat that in a region where they will not be welcome?
Invaders going back to their homeland after being repelled isn't ethnic cleansing.
Crimea is land that Ukraine was welcomed in until it was invaded. Once the invaders are repelled, the war will be over. Anyone who doesn't want to be Ukrainian, is welcome to return to Russia with their army.
All i am saying is by making Crimea a military prize , the war will drag on and may never truly end . Does Ukraine really want that ? Not sure
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Similarly sub 50 for Labour would ring alarms
A LibDem gain of course would really put the cat among the pigeons! And is of course highly unlikely! If "highly" is quite high enough!!
Comments
Today she's announced there are no formal talks happening now or in “the short to medium term.”(via @SarahRosemary3)
"From:
Department for International Trade and The Rt Hon Elizabeth Truss MP
Published
27 February 2020 [...]
The International Trade Secretary, Liz Truss said:
Securing an ambitious free trade agreement with the US is one of my top priorities, delivering benefits to towns across the whole of the UK from Edinburgh to Enniskillen."
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/international-trade-secretary-meets-us-trade-representative
Ah, ScottP got there first - but note the locations for which the many benefits were promised. And that Enniskillen has a Sinn Féin MP.
The changes mean that all single adult tickets in Bristol and Bath will be reduced to £2 - they are £2.20 right now - and returns will be cut from £4 to £3.50. But the price of a day rider will jump from £5.30 to £6 in Bristol, and from £5 in Bath to £5.60.
https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/news/bristol-news/flat-2-fare-buses-across-7604051
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
But I was one of those who correctly predicted that there would be no Truss bounce. Indeed, I suspect in a few months she will be polling worse than Johnson did. Why? Because for all his many faults, he still reached parts no other tory could.
Mood matters and when the mood turns dark people want change. It always happens (sorry Ishmael) with seismic events. Black Wednesday was not entirely of the tories own making and it finished them off for a generation.
The series of catastrophes, some of which ARE of this mob's making, will finish them off for a new generation.
As it couldn't happen to a worse bunch of reprobates I am happy. But not for the country which is self-evidently going down the pan.
Trade deals with the US are completely one-sided. That is unacceptable to us. And a trade deal that treats the parties as equals is unacceptable to the US.
p.s. Being off grid is great.
It does read well as a think-tank report though, as was highlighted up-thread.
What’s much more likely is a series of sectoral deals over time, that will eliminate tariffs on manufactured goods such as cars, and reduce NTBs on services such as consulting and finance.
In the medium term, persuading the USA back into the CP-TPP is the optimal solution.
Boris going also has likely made a difference. Boris was always hated in Scotland unlike in England and Wales. Indeed Scotland was the only part of GB the Tories did worse under Boris in 2019 than they did under May in 2017.
Scots don't hate Truss or Starmer as they hated Boris. Truss also spent much of her childhood in Paisley
"much of childhood"
6 years is not "much" - m ore like a "little".
And locals not impressed.
https://www.holyrood.com/news/view,liz-truss-paisley-the-town-the-made-a-prime-minister
'Swanson has lived there since 1997 and her children went to the same 1930s-built school as Truss did. West Primary has a good reputation, so she was surprised to hear Truss mention her years in Paisley and then Leeds, saying that “many of the children I was at school with were let down by low expectations, poor educational standards and a lack of opportunity”. “Too much talent went to waste,” she went on. “I didn’t believe, and I don’t believe, that it has to be that way."'
https://twitter.com/DanNeidle/status/1572155308411158529
Its not most, but it is definitely much.
How do the value added metrics of these grammars compare with the rest?
6 years is roughly the amount of time that children believe in Santa. Babies and infants are too young, they don't understand what is going on. Once you get to 9 or 10 people stop believing. So that only leaves about 6 years of childhood in which people actually believe in Santa, and you'd suggest that isn't "much" of childhood?
But a headline-grabbing, overarching deal is very unlikely in the short to medium term for the reasons stated.
At what point Scots who really want independence and are prepared to take a risk notice this remains uncertain. It seems obvious to me that the Tories spotted it some time ago. They keep the nuclear option up their sleeve for just in case: Allow a Ref2 at a time of their choice.
The area in green has a bigger population than the area in red
https://twitter.com/onlmaps/status/1571852489829277696
Actually, that said, very often grammar schools do provide a better academic education. There is usually much less disruption, and the competition is to see who can work the hardest rather than who can be the biggest obnoxious twat. Children also usually aren't bullied for being bright, unlike in most comps.
This is one reason why the government eventually ditched VA as a measure in OFSTED inspections.
However, that then had the unfortunate consequences of meaning grammars were compared directly to PRUs which all had to be immediately graded 3 or 4 as a result, because both results and behaviour are crap. Due to them being *checks notes* PRUs where children who simply cannot behave are sent.
https://twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1572170542358343682
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/grammars-are-vital-for-social-mobility-s7r9mcsd3
https://mil.in.ua/en/news/ukraine-s-armed-forces-captured-the-latest-russian-t-90m-proryv-tank-in-kharkiv-region/
"I have two babies, two Santa-believers, and a Kevin."
Primary school years 1 to 6 unsurprisingly enough lasts for six years, oh and its pre-teen too. Are you seriously suggesting primary school is not "much of childhood"?
rebuildspend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.https://twitter.com/tomhfh/status/1572170637455814656?s=20&t=9FENAtyNYYiaMDP4au02NA
They took California, New Mexico, Arizona and Texas by force.
*or at least, unpopulated save for First Nation inhabitants who weren't white and didn't count.
The point about grammars providing well for academic kids is an entirely valid one. You can, however, say very much the same for good (yet still comprehensive) 6th form colleges.
I hope for her sake she doesn't take it, or she might do a May after Copeland...as you were, for the country's sake I hope she takes it.
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Sevastopol will be the new Ukranian Navy base, protecting the grain exports and O&G exploration in the area.
Primary school lasts six years and is much of childhood. Secondary school lasts six years and is also much of childhood. Its silly to pretend otherwise.
I'm pretty sure this is correct - how this affects election result is difficult to judge I think, especially so early in her tenure. A very large portion of the electorate have still never heard of her.
NRS stats (2018-19, pre pandemic) show that Edinburgh actually had one of the lowest rates of inwards migration from RUK relative to international migration, similar to other Scottish cities. It's rural areas that see the most RUK immigration (D&G, Borders, Orkney etc).
Where Edinburgh does differ is rates of immigration from other parts of Scotland - the smallest of all LAs, relative to other types of immigration. The highest rates are the rich, Scottish enclaves of E.Dunbartonshire, E.Ren etc
Many will be refugees now because of Russia's invasion, and many living in Crimea currently will be Russian invaders, but repel the Russian invaders and it of course will change again.
Anyone who wasn't *really* interested didn't show up.
As for the 'right subjects', again the test can be largely one of motivation rather than ability.
https://www.greenhead.ac.uk/courses-apply/entry-requirements
That seems both far fairer, and far more 'comprehensive' than grammar school selection.
Not many countries can liberate occupied territory.
Either they accept that Ukraine is Ukranian, or go back to Russia. It’s a big place Russia, there’s enough room for everyone.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-62968038
We weren't queue jumping in the same way as there were no parties in #10 during COVID.....
There are some indications that errrr... incomers since then are abandoning the place.
Crimea is sovereign territory of Ukraine that many Ukrainians live/lived in and want their home back, and Ukraine is literally at war regaining its lost territory. What possible reason would they have to sell and upset their own citizens by selling their home?
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/09/20/bodies-of-russian-victims-in-izium-are-mutilated-have-severed-genitals-deputy-minister/
Speaking in air of the national telethon, Yevhen Yenin, Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, said that bodies exhumed at the mass burial site in Izium bear signs of torture, Suspilne reported.
“We are continuing to find numerous bodies with marks of violent death, including broken ribs and skulls, men with hands tied behind their backs, with broken jaws, with their genitals cut off,” Yenin said.
He said that law enforcement officers have exhumed 52 bodies from 48 graves...
Crimea is land that Ukraine was welcomed in until it was invaded. Once the invaders are repelled, the war will be over. Anyone who doesn't want to be Ukrainian, is welcome to return to Russia with their army.
Sometimes you just get outclassed and then have to be humble enough to realise and admit it
Entailed having both his femurs broken, and adjustable metal nails inserted down their centers. Each nail is made of titanium, which is both flexible and sturdy, like bone, and about the size of a piccolo. The nails were extended one millimeter every day for about 90 days via a magnetic remote control. Once the broken bones heal, ta-da: a newer, taller John.
https://www.gq.com/story/leg-lengthening
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Louisiana_Purchase
'The Louisiana Purchase was negotiated between France and the United States, without consulting the various Indian tribes who lived on the land and who had not ceded the land to any colonial power. The four decades following the Louisiana Purchase was an era of court decisions removing many tribes from their lands east of the Mississippi for resettlement in the new territory, culminating in the Trail of Tears.[62]
The purchase of the Louisiana Territory led to debates over the idea of indigenous land rights that persisted into the mid 20th century. The many court cases and tribal suits in the 1930s for historical damages flowing from the Louisiana Purchase led to the Indian Claims Commission Act (ICCA) in 1946. Felix S. Cohen, Interior Department Lawyer who helped pass ICCA, is often quoted as saying, "practically all of the real estate acquired by the United States since 1776 was purchased not from Napoleon or any other emperor or czar but from its original Indian owners", roughly estimating that Indians had received twenty times as much as France had for the territory bought by the United States, "somewhat in excess of 800 million dollars".[1][2] More recently, the total cost to the U.S. government of all subsequent treaties and financial settlements over the land has been estimated to be around 2.6 billion dollars.[1][2]'