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Punters are far from convinced that LizT can turn the tide – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited September 20 in General
imagePunters are far from convinced that LizT can turn the tide – politicalbetting.com

The demise of the Queen has totally dominated the news for the first fortnight of the premiership of Liz Truss that it is hard to come to any conclusions about the way things are going or how she is being perceived. What is clear is that the first state funeral since Churchill has effectively led to her being deprived of a normal honeymoon that new prime ministers generally enjoy.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    edited September 20
    The flags back to full mast and the online front pages shift back to usual bits n pieces of rubbish already 🤷‍♀️ Is that the que for proper PBer on PBer action again?

    I’ll kick it off. Liz Truss at the funeral. She didn’t say much, but she delivered it in proper common Yorkshire like I would sound like. SO NOWT WRONG WITH THAT 😌

    Edit. On topic and first, all from the comfort of my bed.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    FPT:

    Andy_JS said:
    If Biden doesn't run, will it most likely be Kamala Harris?

    eek said:
    The default replacement option of Kamala Harris is probably the reason why people are looking at Biden running again. Harris definitely isn't in a position to succeed if Trump is the opposition...

    16.0 on Harris at Smarkets is a nice price. I think she's a shoo in if Biden decides not to run (With the greatest of respect to Pete Buttigieg) as the party faithful won't rally against a sitting VP.
    The implied odds are also a bit long in the general.
    I'm long Biden generally so have taken £116 as a bit of insurance.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 22,323
    edited September 20

    The flags back to full mast and the online front pages shift back to usual bits n pieces of rubbish already 🤷‍♀️ Is that the que for proper PBer on PBer action again?

    I’ll kick it off. Liz Truss at the funeral. She didn’t say much, but she delivered it in proper common Yorkshire like I would sound like. SO NOWT WRONG WITH THAT 😌

    Liz Truss doesn't cock-up funeral reading. That's noteworthy?
  • No money for tuition fee support

    Here's some money for Ukraine
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    The flags back to full mast and the online front pages shift back to usual bits n pieces of rubbish already 🤷‍♀️ Is that the que for proper PBer on PBer action again?

    I’ll kick it off. Liz Truss at the funeral. She didn’t say much, but she delivered it in proper common Yorkshire like I would sound like. SO NOWT WRONG WITH THAT 😌

    Liz Truss doesn't cock-up funeral reading. That's noteworthy?
    Yorkshire Yorkshire Yorkshire 😘
  • Labour still underpriced, IMHO. I think the arrogance and incompetence of Truss's team isn't yet fully appreciated.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022

    No money for tuition fee support

    Here's some money for Ukraine

    You are the German Corbyn Sahra Wagenknecht arn’t you? Note the far right like your messaging on this too Horse.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/sep/19/germanys-die-linke-on-verge-of-split-over-sanctions-on-russia
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    edited September 20
    Well that was quite the day yesterday, way more emotional than expected. A day we are all unlikely to see on that scale again in our lifetimes, a wonderfully organised display of which the nation should be very proud indeed.

    Now back to life, with a Queen Elizabeth sized hole in it. To think that, only two weeks ago today, we were all following the journey of the new Prime Minister to be asked to form a government by Her Majesty.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,149

    The flags back to full mast and the online front pages shift back to usual bits n pieces of rubbish already 🤷‍♀️ Is that the que for proper PBer on PBer action again?

    I’ll kick it off. Liz Truss at the funeral. She didn’t say much, but she delivered it in proper common Yorkshire like I would sound like. SO NOWT WRONG WITH THAT 😌

    Liz Truss doesn't cock-up funeral reading. That's noteworthy?
    She could have gone with:

    "Fornication, such as we have witnessed today....


    ....sorry, I'll repeat that - For an occasion, such as we have witnessed today..."
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    No money for tuition fee support

    Here's some money for Ukraine

    Would you rather abandon Ukraine to Russia in exchange for a modest notional reduction in your student debt that would make zero difference to your loan repayments? Is that what you're really saying?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 7,022
    People noticed dear little Itsy Rex spider, but didn’t notice topless young woman with tits like mine sat on the coffin? 🤷‍♀️
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,330
    Much has been made of Scotland's apparent lack of support for the Crown.

    33,000 went through St Giles' in Edinburgh - 0.6% of Scotland's population.

    Meanwhile, in London (England), a frankly pathetic 0.4% paid their respects to our late Sovereign.

    The people of Scotland were so overcome with grief that we couldn't even make it to Holyrood park to watch the funeral. Most stayed at home, distraught.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,140

    The flags back to full mast and the online front pages shift back to usual bits n pieces of rubbish already 🤷‍♀️ Is that the que for proper PBer on PBer action again?

    I’ll kick it off. Liz Truss at the funeral. She didn’t say much, but she delivered it in proper common Yorkshire like I would sound like. SO NOWT WRONG WITH THAT 😌

    Liz Truss doesn't cock-up funeral reading. That's noteworthy?
    She could have gone with:

    "Fornication, such as we have witnessed today....


    ....sorry, I'll repeat that - For an occasion, such as we have witnessed today..."
    If she said that, she would have been screwed.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486
    Pulpstar said:

    FPT:

    Andy_JS said:
    If Biden doesn't run, will it most likely be Kamala Harris?

    eek said:
    The default replacement option of Kamala Harris is probably the reason why people are looking at Biden running again. Harris definitely isn't in a position to succeed if Trump is the opposition...

    16.0 on Harris at Smarkets is a nice price. I think she's a shoo in if Biden decides not to run (With the greatest of respect to Pete Buttigieg) as the party faithful won't rally against a sitting VP.
    The implied odds are also a bit long in the general.
    I'm long Biden generally so have taken £116 as a bit of insurance.

    Actually 16 does look value for Harris. I very much doubt she will beat Trump, but there's a chance he wont be able to run for some black swan or legal reason.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Seems a good day to re-air this, given the number of leavers now going 'everyone always knew there wouldn't be a US trade deal really'. https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1440610386651222024
  • Tying two threads together, the next potential turning point is the Truss/Biden meeting.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,330
    Eabhal said:

    Much has been made of Scotland's apparent lack of support for the Crown.

    33,000 went through St Giles' in Edinburgh - 0.6% of Scotland's population.

    Meanwhile, in London (England), a frankly pathetic 0.4% paid their respects to our late Sovereign.

    The people of Scotland were so overcome with grief that we couldn't even make it to Holyrood park to watch the funeral. Most stayed at home, distraught.

    (This is a heartfelt attempt to revive @malcolmg )
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 4,797

    Labour still underpriced, IMHO. I think the arrogance and incompetence of Truss's team isn't yet fully appreciated.

    Have you opened your other eye? Truss has been PM for a fortnight and allof her time thus far has been overshadowed by the death if the Queen. A bit early for such a partisan prediction
  • Swearing-in MPs seems dull. Probably someone will make lists of which MPs had their spiritual fingers crossed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,140

    Tying two threads together, the next potential turning point is the Truss/Biden meeting.

    He should troll her by putting her in a queue behind 14 state governors.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486
    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
  • Scott_xP said:

    Seems a good day to re-air this, given the number of leavers now going 'everyone always knew there wouldn't be a US trade deal really'. https://twitter.com/PhantomPower14/status/1440610386651222024

    Hold on. Boris said "first in line" and not "front of the queue". Obamagate!
  • Truss seems like she's being advised my morons
  • The flags back to full mast and the online front pages shift back to usual bits n pieces of rubbish already 🤷‍♀️ Is that the que for proper PBer on PBer action again?

    I’ll kick it off. Liz Truss at the funeral. She didn’t say much, but she delivered it in proper common Yorkshire like I would sound like. SO NOWT WRONG WITH THAT 😌

    Liz Truss doesn't cock-up funeral reading. That's noteworthy?
    Yorkshire Yorkshire Yorkshire 😘
    Where in Yorkshire are you from?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543

    Truss seems like she's being advised my morons

    She agrees with them
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,140

    Truss seems like she's being advised my morons

    I think that's a bit harsh.

    It might just be that she's the moron.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,140

    The flags back to full mast and the online front pages shift back to usual bits n pieces of rubbish already 🤷‍♀️ Is that the que for proper PBer on PBer action again?

    I’ll kick it off. Liz Truss at the funeral. She didn’t say much, but she delivered it in proper common Yorkshire like I would sound like. SO NOWT WRONG WITH THAT 😌

    Liz Truss doesn't cock-up funeral reading. That's noteworthy?
    Yorkshire Yorkshire Yorkshire 😘
    Where in Yorkshire are you from?
    A question like that leeds to confusion.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 42,730
    Trump is forked.

    Trump team resists special master’s request to explain declassification of Mar-a-Lago documents

    https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3651209-trump-team-resists-special-masters-request-to-explain-declassification-of-mar-a-lago-documents/
    Former President Trump’s legal team on Monday night resisted a request to elaborate on his claims around declassifying the documents recovered last month from his Mar-a-Lago home.
    In a filing to the court-appointed special master that Trump requested, his attorneys said the “time and place” for making such a disclosure would come in a motion in a criminal trial as an effort to recover his property.
    “Otherwise, the Special Master process will have forced the Plaintiff to fully and specifically disclose a defense to the merits of any subsequent indictment without such a requirement being evident in the District Court’s order,” Trump’s legal team wrote.
    The resistance comes after Trump’s attorneys insinuated the former president declassified the more than 300 documents recovered from his Florida home but stopped short of fully making the claim in court filings.
    “The government’s stance assumes that if a document has a classification marking, it remains classified irrespective of any actions taken during President Trump’s term in office,” Trump’s legal team wrote in a filing last week.
    “There is no legitimate contention that the chief executive’s declassification of documents requires approval of bureaucratic components of the executive branch,” they added.
    The Justice Department’s legal team seized on the hinting from Trump’s lawyer in their next filing.
    “Plaintiff principally seeks to raise questions about the classification status of the records and their categorization under the Presidential Records Act (‘PRA’). But plaintiff does not actually assert — much less provide any evidence — that any of the seized records bearing classification markings have been declassified,” the department wrote.
    “Such possibilities should not be given weight absent plaintiff’s putting forward competent evidence,” it added....


    Evidence free assertions have no weight in a court of law.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,343
    edited September 20
    We think our inflation rate is bad, German input prices are up YoY by 45%, in comparison UK input prices are up 17% YoY. Europe is heading for a disaster this winter and no one seems to be doing anything about it.
  • At the next election the Tories will have had Downing Street for 14-15 years. Its frankly hubris to assume that another term should be in the bag, the "time for a change" mantra might be too strong.

    Truss has two years to do what she believes in to transform Britain for the better. If she does that and does it well she might earn another term, if she doesn't earn another term at least she will have left her mark on the country.

    Or she could spend two years vapidly chasing headlines and doing whatever pollsters say. If she does that, she doesn't deserve a second term.
  • At the next election the Tories will have had Downing Street for 14-15 years. Its frankly hubris to assume that another term should be in the bag, the "time for a change" mantra might be too strong.

    Truss has two years to do what she believes in to transform Britain for the better. If she does that and does it well she might earn another term, if she doesn't earn another term at least she will have left her mark on the country.

    Or she could spend two years vapidly chasing headlines and doing whatever pollsters say. If she does that, she doesn't deserve a second term.

    One of your sensible posts here Bart, totally agreed
  • DriverDriver Posts: 844
    ydoethur said:

    Tying two threads together, the next potential turning point is the Truss/Biden meeting.

    He should troll her by putting her in a queue behind 14 state governors.
    She's too sensible to turn up late because she insisted on using her own transport instead of the transport kindly provided.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.

    He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Sandpit said:

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.

    Best case scenario, Putin falls out of a window
  • Truss seems like she's being advised my morons

    Could your morons not tell whether she was getting advice?
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.

    He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
    Russia's other problem is that while China is ostensibly supporting them, it is not providing actual help, is wooing Central Asian countries away from Moscow, and has eyes on parts of East Russia.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,746
    edited September 20
    The public has barely seen Truss yet. People haven't yet made up their minds, and her energy plan was better than anything Boris dreamt up during his time in office tbh.
    Irrespective of partygate and so forth what did the man actually do that was any good - I for one am glad she's replaced Boris - a Prime Minister whose main virtue to the public seemed to be that he was "Good old Boris" and plenty of bluster. Furlough was all Sunak's work, and even though it was seemingly doomed to failure, like it or loathe it Patel's work on immigration was clearly not backed up by the hard yards from her boss.
    A man without the patience or understanding required and completely unsuited to be PM.
  • Labour still underpriced, IMHO. I think the arrogance and incompetence of Truss's team isn't yet fully appreciated.

    Have you opened your other eye? Truss has been PM for a fortnight and allof her time thus far has been overshadowed by the death if the Queen. A bit early for such a partisan prediction
    I'm basing this view on what people in the markets who have spoken to Tories who know her team well have said. So not first hand, but probably well informed and not partisan. It is a pretty consistent message I am hearing too.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.

    He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
    A few days ago we had one of the string of Russian trolls that appears here suggesting that Ukraine couldn't possibly take Crimea without it leading to nuclear war because the nuclear submarines are at Sevastopol.

    Now Russia's withdrawing those same submarines.

    Russia's not pressing the red button, they're stupid but not that stupid.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,144
    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 24,543
    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    At the next election the Tories will have had Downing Street for 14-15 years. Its frankly hubris to assume that another term should be in the bag, the "time for a change" mantra might be too strong.

    Truss has two years to do what she believes in to transform Britain for the better. If she does that and does it well she might earn another term, if she doesn't earn another term at least she will have left her mark on the country.

    Or she could spend two years vapidly chasing headlines and doing whatever pollsters say. If she does that, she doesn't deserve a second term.

    The country has had a lot of change over the period of Conservative government. There's been austerity, Brexit, leveling-up, war in Europe, Covid, inflation, a change of reign.

    I wouldn't underestimate the desire for stability. If people are scared then a change of government might feel like a change too far. If Truss can merely put the chaos and confusion of Johnson's Ministry behind her, then that would go a long way at the next GE.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 844
    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    I wouldn't expect any significant change until after the I Can't Believe It's Not Budget.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,144
    Latest Russian ruse: immediate referendum in Kherson on joining Russia. Thereby making a recapture of the oblast an attack on the motherland and, presumably, either offering a chance for full mobilisation (though that would be suicidal) or more nuclear blackmail (which everyone would ignore).

    https://twitter.com/guyelster/status/1572142903056793600?s=21&t=OI56aZKz12GcahyMaha19A
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,521
    edited September 20
    Nigelb said:

    Trump is forked.

    Trump team resists special master’s request to explain declassification of Mar-a-Lago documents

    https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/3651209-trump-team-resists-special-masters-request-to-explain-declassification-of-mar-a-lago-documents/
    Former President Trump’s legal team on Monday night resisted a request to elaborate on his claims around declassifying the documents recovered last month from his Mar-a-Lago home.
    In a filing to the court-appointed special master that Trump requested, his attorneys said the “time and place” for making such a disclosure would come in a motion in a criminal trial as an effort to recover his property.
    “Otherwise, the Special Master process will have forced the Plaintiff to fully and specifically disclose a defense to the merits of any subsequent indictment without such a requirement being evident in the District Court’s order,” Trump’s legal team wrote.
    The resistance comes after Trump’s attorneys insinuated the former president declassified the more than 300 documents recovered from his Florida home but stopped short of fully making the claim in court filings.
    “The government’s stance assumes that if a document has a classification marking, it remains classified irrespective of any actions taken during President Trump’s term in office,” Trump’s legal team wrote in a filing last week.
    “There is no legitimate contention that the chief executive’s declassification of documents requires approval of bureaucratic components of the executive branch,” they added.
    The Justice Department’s legal team seized on the hinting from Trump’s lawyer in their next filing.
    “Plaintiff principally seeks to raise questions about the classification status of the records and their categorization under the Presidential Records Act (‘PRA’). But plaintiff does not actually assert — much less provide any evidence — that any of the seized records bearing classification markings have been declassified,” the department wrote.
    “Such possibilities should not be given weight absent plaintiff’s putting forward competent evidence,” it added....


    Evidence free assertions have no weight in a court of law.

    Waiting for the dime to drop in the betting markets. He's still 4.7 for the Presidency which is far too low imo. It's testing my discipline not to lay some more.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,330
    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.

  • DriverDriver Posts: 844
    Scott_xP said:

    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Ah, I see Labour are stuck in the "people who pay very little tax don't get their taxes cut by much" idiocy, and you're faithfully regurgitating it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    edited September 20

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.

    He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
    Russia's other problem is that while China is ostensibly supporting them, it is not providing actual help, is wooing Central Asian countries away from Moscow, and has eyes on parts of East Russia.
    Yes, Xi and Modi had some very pointed comments for Putin at their summit last week. People we would naturally think of as being Russian allies, at least in military matters, are at best neutral in this conflict.

    A good analysis of the carefully-chosen diplomatic language. https://youtube.com/watch?v=P5Om_G2JTvk
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    Pulpstar said:

    The public has barely seen Truss yet. People haven't yet made up their minds, and her energy plan was better than anything Boris dreamt up during his time in office tbh.
    Irrespective of partygate and so forth what did the man actually do that was any good - I for one am glad she's replaced Boris - a Prime Minister whose main virtue to the public seemed to be that he was "Good old Boris" and plenty of bluster. Furlough was all Sunak's work, and even though it was seemingly doomed to failure, like it or loathe it Patel's work on immigration was clearly not backed up by the hard yards from her boss.
    A man without the patience or understanding required and completely unsuited to be PM.

    I saw somewhere yesterday that Patel spent some of the weekend marshalling The Queue... Worth saying that because it improve my opinion about her (fairly useless but not surprising given how impossible most of her tasks were)...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739
    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Last poll was taken from 14th-15th September ie last week and had Labour 41% Tories 35% and LDs 10%, I doubt much change since

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1570774514119880704?s=20&t=6pPs05o57ExD9nCjoyL_Og
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    Driver said:

    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    I wouldn't expect any significant change until after the I Can't Believe It's Not Budget.
    I suspect the I can't believe it's not a budget bounce will last just long enough for people to see the detail and realise there isn't much for them in it...

    Also I suspect there will be a lot of hand waving as NI changes are made but little to nothing is said about Social care funding which is a fundamental issue that is destroying the NHS from bed blocking down to Ambulances...
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    The reversal of the NI rise has nothing to do with ‘energy plans’.

    Also, everyone seems to have forgotten again, that there’s a 15-20% shortfall in supply. ANY solution MUST involve a 15-20% reduction in demand this winter.
    We also need to overshoot that shortfall and reduce demand by 18-23% as otherwise prices won't be impacted..
  • TimSTimS Posts: 2,144

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.

    He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
    Russia's not pressing the red button, they're stupid but not that stupid.
    Remarkable how much they’ve trashed their reputation for political genius. Now roundly assumed to be strategic dimwits.

    Time has shown that someone did indeed blunder and it wasn’t 4D chess:

    https://twitter.com/timsarson1/status/1494800023841918988?s=21&t=OI56aZKz12GcahyMaha19A

  • Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Ah, I see Labour are stuck in the "people who pay very little tax don't get their taxes cut by much" idiocy, and you're faithfully regurgitating it.
    Most of the same people who said that raising NI was wrong now say that cutting* NI is wrong.

    I'll stick to my principles instead. I said it was wrong to raise NI, it is right to reverse that rise.

    * Cutting = Reversing the rise, not cutting below where it was.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.

    He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
    His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.

    If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.

    There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739
    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.

    First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19840380/support-scottish-independence-queens-death/
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Ah, I see Labour are stuck in the "people who pay very little tax don't get their taxes cut by much" idiocy, and you're faithfully regurgitating it.
    Most of the same people who said that raising NI was wrong now say that cutting* NI is wrong.

    I'll stick to my principles instead. I said it was wrong to raise NI, it is right to reverse that rise.

    * Cutting = Reversing the rise, not cutting below where it was.
    I'm waiting to see what happens because it wouldn't surprise me that the employee NI change will be reversed but the employer NI one kept....
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,103
    Pulpstar said:

    The public has barely seen Truss yet. People haven't yet made up their minds, and her energy plan was better than anything Boris dreamt up during his time in office tbh.
    Irrespective of partygate and so forth what did the man actually do that was any good - I for one am glad she's replaced Boris - a Prime Minister whose main virtue to the public seemed to be that he was "Good old Boris" and plenty of bluster. Furlough was all Sunak's work, and even though it was seemingly doomed to failure, like it or loathe it Patel's work on immigration was clearly not backed up by the hard yards from her boss.
    A man without the patience or understanding required and completely unsuited to be PM.

    Levelling up is huge round here. Millions invested in new infrastructure in Staveley and NE Derbyshire. Real projects not talk and bluster.

    Suspect that will stop completely under Truss and she will join Labour in doing f**k all for the folks round here
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054
    TimS said:

    Latest Russian ruse: immediate referendum in Kherson on joining Russia. Thereby making a recapture of the oblast an attack on the motherland and, presumably, either offering a chance for full mobilisation (though that would be suicidal) or more nuclear blackmail (which everyone would ignore).

    https://twitter.com/guyelster/status/1572142903056793600?s=21&t=OI56aZKz12GcahyMaha19A

    Who wants to organise that referendum, given that the “Russian in-charge” of Kherson got killed last week when his meeting room was rudely disturbed by the HIMARS?

    Oh, and there’s still no supply routes into Kherson, except across the river. The enemy are in the process of being starved out, many of the commanding officers have gone East over the river already.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 53,486
    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    The reversal of the NI rise has nothing to do with ‘energy plans’.

    Also, everyone seems to have forgotten again, that there’s a 15-20% shortfall in supply. ANY solution MUST involve a 15-20% reduction in demand this winter.
    Yes, that seems to have been forgotten.

    It is possible they are banking on people reducing their energy us because the price now is still a ton more than last winter's.

    I am certainly keeping the boiler off as long as possible.
  • Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.

    He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
    His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.

    If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.

    There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
    Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,103

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Ah, I see Labour are stuck in the "people who pay very little tax don't get their taxes cut by much" idiocy, and you're faithfully regurgitating it.
    Most of the same people who said that raising NI was wrong now say that cutting* NI is wrong.

    I'll stick to my principles instead. I said it was wrong to raise NI, it is right to reverse that rise.

    * Cutting = Reversing the rise, not cutting below where it was.
    Enjoy your new found richest don't spend it all on your first pint of milk
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 41,054

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Ah, I see Labour are stuck in the "people who pay very little tax don't get their taxes cut by much" idiocy, and you're faithfully regurgitating it.
    Most of the same people who said that raising NI was wrong now say that cutting* NI is wrong.

    I'll stick to my principles instead. I said it was wrong to raise NI, it is right to reverse that rise.

    * Cutting = Reversing the rise, not cutting below where it was.
    NI, especially Employer NI, is a tax on jobs. It’s still a tax on jobs whether it’s Gordon Brown or Rishi Sunak increasing it.

    Better to slowly merge NI into income tax and business rates, which has the added side-effect of getting rid of the massive IR35 mess that’s strangling the most dynamic part of the white-collar labour market.
  • HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.

    First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19840380/support-scottish-independence-queens-death/
    From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.

    First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19840380/support-scottish-independence-queens-death/
    From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?

    46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,103
    Sandpit said:

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Ah, I see Labour are stuck in the "people who pay very little tax don't get their taxes cut by much" idiocy, and you're faithfully regurgitating it.
    Most of the same people who said that raising NI was wrong now say that cutting* NI is wrong.

    I'll stick to my principles instead. I said it was wrong to raise NI, it is right to reverse that rise.

    * Cutting = Reversing the rise, not cutting below where it was.
    NI, especially Employer NI, is a tax on jobs. It’s still a tax on jobs whether it’s Gordon Brown or Rishi Sunak increasing it.

    Better to slowly merge NI into income tax and business rates, which has the added side-effect of getting rid of the massive IR35 mess that’s strangling the most dynamic part of the white-collar labour market.
    Tax on jobs LOL

    Employers can't get enough staff you seriously saying a bit of NI is the reason they will stop trying

    Enough is Enough. There will be a rebalanced of society either via policy or direct action IMO
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,330
    edited September 20
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.

    First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19840380/support-scottish-independence-queens-death/
    From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?

    46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
    Sample size only 659. Not quite a sub-sample, but still.

    What's interesting were all the big leads for Yes were during the pandemic, but pre-vaccine. Since the 2021 election it's been mainly No leads (but smaller).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,521

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Ah, I see Labour are stuck in the "people who pay very little tax don't get their taxes cut by much" idiocy, and you're faithfully regurgitating it.
    Most of the same people who said that raising NI was wrong now say that cutting* NI is wrong.

    I'll stick to my principles instead. I said it was wrong to raise NI, it is right to reverse that rise.

    * Cutting = Reversing the rise, not cutting below where it was.
    Most of the people (eg me) who said it was wrong to raise NI to find extra money for the NHS backlog and social care went on to say that what should have been raised was Income Tax - since this would have been a better way to do it, not so skewed in favour of pensioners and against working people.

    What's now being proposed is to reverse the NI rise but with no replacement other than borrowing. It is therefore not something one would expect these people (eg me) to support. They'd only support it if they preferred unfunded spending to spending that's funded but sub-optimally.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.

    First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19840380/support-scottish-independence-queens-death/
    From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?

    46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
    47% excluding undecideds is higher than 45% they got in 2014, not lower than it.

    Including undecideds is like including the 15.41% of the registered electorate that didn't vote in 2014 in which case Yes got 37.8% in 2014 and 42% is higher than that.
  • HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.

    First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19840380/support-scottish-independence-queens-death/
    From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?

    46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
    Is that previous figure from the same pollster?
    Using HYUFDematics, Yes down 3 points from 2014 and No down a MASSIVE 7 points. Golly!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,149
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.

    First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19840380/support-scottish-independence-queens-death/
    From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?

    46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
    For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,961
    Just been out for a haircut.

    Barber advised that he might be using different premises soon, smaller ones, due to the rise in electricity prices. Self-employed sole trader. And he's not the only one in our town centre talking about closing due to increased costs!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,405
    edited September 20

    Sandpit said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    The reversal of the NI rise has nothing to do with ‘energy plans’.

    Also, everyone seems to have forgotten again, that there’s a 15-20% shortfall in supply. ANY solution MUST involve a 15-20% reduction in demand this winter.
    Yes, that seems to have been forgotten.

    It is possible they are banking on people reducing their energy us because the price now is still a ton more than last winter's.

    I am certainly keeping the boiler off as long as possible.
    I'm finding the energy companies pricing odd. We are with the same supplier for both our houses. For our main house we are in debt to the tune of nearly £500 and this is at a time when we should be in credit before winter. No attempt has been made to ask us to pay more. For our 2nd house we use practically no power and are always in credit, yet the supplier wanted to double our monthly bill. We pointed out this was daft as we never use what we pay. They refused to change so we moved our direct debit to be the actual usage each month, rather than a fixed amount, which means we now pay less than we paid before so it has gone down rather than up.

    I'm wondering whether they are scared of putting the price up on our main house to what it should be in case we can't pay, whereas on our 2nd house it was peanuts.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Sandpit said:

    TimS said:

    Latest Russian ruse: immediate referendum in Kherson on joining Russia. Thereby making a recapture of the oblast an attack on the motherland and, presumably, either offering a chance for full mobilisation (though that would be suicidal) or more nuclear blackmail (which everyone would ignore).

    https://twitter.com/guyelster/status/1572142903056793600?s=21&t=OI56aZKz12GcahyMaha19A

    Who wants to organise that referendum, given that the “Russian in-charge” of Kherson got killed last week when his meeting room was rudely disturbed by the HIMARS?

    Oh, and there’s still no supply routes into Kherson, except across the river. The enemy are in the process of being starved out, many of the commanding officers have gone East over the river already.
    A supply barge across the river got sunk by the Ukrainians last night. So forget that as a functioning route.

    There is a massive cache of kit and munitions for the Ukrainians if they do get a collapse/surrender in Kherson. And up to 20,000 POWs. At the moment it is a very slow move forward by the Ukrainian troops, probing for weaknesses, causing the Russians to use up their ever more limited supplies of shells to repulse them. Not a great outlook for the Russians.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 17,149

    Just been out for a haircut.

    Barber advised that he might be using different premises soon, smaller ones, due to the rise in electricity prices. Self-employed sole trader. And he's not the only one in our town centre talking about closing due to increased costs!

    If your avatar is accurate, I hope the barber doesn't charge you much!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977
    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tying two threads together, the next potential turning point is the Truss/Biden meeting.

    He should troll her by putting her in a queue behind 14 state governors.
    She's too sensible to turn up late because she insisted on using her own transport instead of the transport kindly provided.
    She's got her transport to the UN sorted. Jizzy Lizzy doesn't fuck with the E train.


  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,961

    Just been out for a haircut.

    Barber advised that he might be using different premises soon, smaller ones, due to the rise in electricity prices. Self-employed sole trader. And he's not the only one in our town centre talking about closing due to increased costs!

    If your avatar is accurate, I hope the barber doesn't charge you much!
    LOL! It's the skill needed to trim round the ears!
    Seriously though it's not a good likeness!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 30,521
    Pulpstar said:

    The public has barely seen Truss yet. People haven't yet made up their minds, and her energy plan was better than anything Boris dreamt up during his time in office tbh.
    Irrespective of partygate and so forth what did the man actually do that was any good - I for one am glad she's replaced Boris - a Prime Minister whose main virtue to the public seemed to be that he was "Good old Boris" and plenty of bluster. Furlough was all Sunak's work, and even though it was seemingly doomed to failure, like it or loathe it Patel's work on immigration was clearly not backed up by the hard yards from her boss.
    A man without the patience or understanding required and completely unsuited to be PM.

    Same here. Truss's politics could not be less suited imo to addressing the issues we have in Britain here in 2022 - and I think she's out at the GE - but by comparison with Johnson she's fabulous.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 52,140

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.

    He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
    His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.

    If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.

    There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
    If Russia withdraws, I don't think there will be much fighting in the Donbass. Most of their 'armies' have been used up in the attacks on Ukraine. If Russia pulls out there's nothing to stop Ukraine pushing right through to the border.

    More instructive is this talk of withdrawal from the Crimea. If they think there's a chance they can't hold that at least through the winter they must be in an even worse mess than it looks from outside.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 25,994

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.

    First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19840380/support-scottish-independence-queens-death/
    From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?

    46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
    For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
    Not when HYUFD is dealing with Scotland. As I may have noted, it's the psephological variant of bistromathics.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,666
    Sandpit said:

    Driver said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Labour go on the attack over Truss’s energy plans. 12 long years of low growth. A refusal to raise funds fairly. And no long term plan to make us more secure in the future. That’s their record. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/sep/19/kwarteng-tax-cut-likely-to-give-lowest-paid-just-63p-a-month-says-ifs?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other

    Ah, I see Labour are stuck in the "people who pay very little tax don't get their taxes cut by much" idiocy, and you're faithfully regurgitating it.
    Most of the same people who said that raising NI was wrong now say that cutting* NI is wrong.

    I'll stick to my principles instead. I said it was wrong to raise NI, it is right to reverse that rise.

    * Cutting = Reversing the rise, not cutting below where it was.
    NI, especially Employer NI, is a tax on jobs. It’s still a tax on jobs whether it’s Gordon Brown or Rishi Sunak increasing it.

    Better to slowly merge NI into income tax and business rates, which has the added side-effect of getting rid of the massive IR35 mess that’s strangling the most dynamic part of the white-collar labour market.
    Really wouldn't recommend merging anything into Business Rates - they are already too high in a lot of places (often way more than market rents in retail and even offices)...
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 2,330
    Dura_Ace said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tying two threads together, the next potential turning point is the Truss/Biden meeting.

    He should troll her by putting her in a queue behind 14 state governors.
    She's too sensible to turn up late because she insisted on using her own transport instead of the transport kindly provided.
    She's got her transport to the UN sorted. Jizzy Lizzy doesn't fuck with the E train.


    I do like a Brompton
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 3,404
    edited September 20
    There's an adage about lucky generals and the same applies to lucky periods in office. And their opposite.

    Mood matters, and when people look back on this 5 year parliament they will remember the worst pandemic since the great plague, war returning to Europe, the worst economic and cost of living crisis in a generation, and the death of the Queen.

    Ill fortune seems to have followed the Conservatives around.

    People want a change and there is nothing Liz Truss or her party can now do to restore belief.

    They are in for a shellacking.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,961
    Dura_Ace said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tying two threads together, the next potential turning point is the Truss/Biden meeting.

    He should troll her by putting her in a queue behind 14 state governors.
    She's too sensible to turn up late because she insisted on using her own transport instead of the transport kindly provided.
    She's got her transport to the UN sorted. Jizzy Lizzy doesn't fuck with the E train.


    Long way from there to New York!
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,977

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.

    He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
    A few days ago we had one of the string of Russian trolls that appears here suggesting that Ukraine couldn't possibly take Crimea without it leading to nuclear war because the nuclear submarines are at Sevastopol.

    Now Russia's withdrawing those same submarines.

    No SSN/SSBN in the BSF, only Kilos.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.

    First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19840380/support-scottish-independence-queens-death/
    From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?

    46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
    47% excluding undecideds is higher than 45% they got in 2014, not lower than it.

    Including undecideds is like including the 15.41% of the registered electorate that didn't vote in 2014 in which case Yes got 37.8% in 2014 and 42% is higher than that.
    42% including undecideds is lower than the 45% they got in 2014 and of course in 2014 most undecideds went No
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.

    He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
    His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.

    If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.

    There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
    If Russia withdraws, I don't think there will be much fighting in the Donbass. Most of their 'armies' have been used up in the attacks on Ukraine. If Russia pulls out there's nothing to stop Ukraine pushing right through to the border.

    More instructive is this talk of withdrawal from the Crimea. If they think there's a chance they can't hold that at least through the winter they must be in an even worse mess than it looks from outside.
    Ukraine regaining the Crimea will end Putin. Kherson is the gateway to Crimea - and also controls the water supply.

    Despite the great gains Ukraine has made pushing out of Kharkiv, it is Kherson that is still their big prize. Which is why Russia sent its best troops there - and in doing so left an unholdable front line further east, breaking the Russian supply lines and leaving Kherson under siege.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739
    edited September 20

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Eabhal said:

    TimS said:

    We’re overdue some polls. I suspect the next log will show things fairly stable because if the stasis induced by QEII week.

    Indy poll this week would be interesting. 11th October for the court case.

    First poll taken since the Queen's death has support for Yes collapsing to just 42% including undecideds and 47% excluding undecideds. 55% also oppose an indyref2 now. Whatever the court case decides it will certainly say the future of the Union is reserved to Westminster anyway, even in the unlikely event to court rules a wildcat referendum without legal force is OK

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/19840380/support-scottish-independence-queens-death/
    From what previous figure did it collapse to 42%, Skip?

    46% last poll and of course Yes got 45% in 2014 even before Brexit, so 42% even below that
    For goodness sake. 47% is higher than 45%.
    No, it is 42% NOT 47% including undecideds and that is lower than 45%
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 56,044
    Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen:
    1 US trade deal
    2 Fracking
    3 Grammar schools


    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1572139777251581954

    Quite a thread of replies developing…
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,513

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.

    https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1572086168467931136

    I wonder if anyone has told Putin yet?
    Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.

    He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.

    So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
    His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.

    If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.

    There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
    Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
    None, but that wasn't my point.

    Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.

    Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 14,309
    Truss seems like a faceless nonentity to me, and has policies that seem to play into the Loto's hands.

    That said, she is less boorish than her predecessor to the point of being rather invisible – easy to forget she is actually PM.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 45,341
    Eabhal said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Driver said:

    ydoethur said:

    Tying two threads together, the next potential turning point is the Truss/Biden meeting.

    He should troll her by putting her in a queue behind 14 state governors.
    She's too sensible to turn up late because she insisted on using her own transport instead of the transport kindly provided.
    She's got her transport to the UN sorted. Jizzy Lizzy doesn't fuck with the E train.


    I do like a Brompton
    But you wouldn't want to ride it from Sydney to New York....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 102,739
    edited September 20

    Going to start making a list of things that were never going to happen that are still never going to happen:
    1 US trade deal
    2 Fracking
    3 Grammar schools


    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1572139777251581954

    Quite a thread of replies developing…

    He forgets that there are still already almost 200 excellent grammar schools in England now, even if not a single new grammar school is created under Truss
  • Heathener said:

    There's an adage about lucky generals and the same applies to lucky periods in office. And their opposite.

    Mood matters, and when people look back on this 5 year parliament they will remember the worst pandemic since the great plague, war returning to Europe, the worst economic and cost of living crisis in a generation, and the death of the Queen.

    Ill fortune seems to have followed the Conservatives around.

    People want a change and there is nothing Liz Truss or her party can now do to restore belief.

    They are in for a shellacking.

    Maybe, or maybe they'll look back and see that we got through the pandemic, that Russia was defeated in the war and the economic outlook improving post-war and decide to cling on to what they have rather than rock the boat.

    The future is unwritten. Anyone who thinks it is certain is only kidding themselves.
  • TazTaz Posts: 5,776

    Just been out for a haircut.

    Barber advised that he might be using different premises soon, smaller ones, due to the rise in electricity prices. Self-employed sole trader. And he's not the only one in our town centre talking about closing due to increased costs!

    My barber now works from home having converted his conservatory into his barber shop. Saves a fortune.
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