It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
Crimea is historically Ukrainian. Pre-war Russia could perhaps have opted to offer to buy Crimea, but having lost the war? They should be driven out comprehensively, too late now.
what do people in Crimea want? Not much point controlling land that the locals do not want you to - the troubles will never end then
That's a rather difficult question given the number of Ukrainians forced out of Crimea since 2014 and the number of Russians who have moved in....
but that means a but of ethnic cleansing then doesnt it ? To restore a position where Ukraine will be wanted in the region by the locals. It may not be fair but practically you have to deal with todays reality not historicial claims or even past immigration. The war will never end if Crimea is taken , it may pause but never end - does Ukraine really wnat that in a region where they will not be welcome?
Invaders going back to their homeland after being repelled isn't ethnic cleansing.
Crimea is land that Ukraine was welcomed in until it was invaded. Once the invaders are repelled, the war will be over. Anyone who doesn't want to be Ukrainian, is welcome to return to Russia with their army.
All i am saying is by making Crimea a military prize , the war will drag on and may never truly end . Does Ukraine really want that ? Not sure
FWIW, Zelensky has said in recent days that they will recover it 'by diplomatic means'.
The amount of kit that the Russians left behind in the Kharkiv rout was equivalent to 5-8 battle groups:
Kherson falling would likely leave double that, maybe more. Not sure how Crimea defends itself once the bridge gets taken down to prevent further reinforcements. It would just be Kherson 2.0...
Oh, I've no doubt it would be militarily possible, but it's not solely a question of what's militarily possible.
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
When Suez happened, I don't recall the world saying that people should go lightly on the UK/France etc because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the French because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened a second time, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the US because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the USSR because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened again, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the US, French & UK because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
The Hill, which is a pretty solidly conservative publication, has run numerous articles like this recently. Having previously been reliably favourable towards Trump.
Though the Ukrainians are the ones with the winter gear supplied by the Norwegians. The Russians are still in summer uniforms, judging by the videos...
You'd think the one thing the Russians couldn't fuck up would be cold weather gear
Though the Ukrainians are the ones with the winter gear supplied by the Norwegians. The Russians are still in summer uniforms, judging by the videos...
You'd think the one thing the Russians couldn't fuck up would be cold weather gear
Russian winter clothing is pretty good - it has to be.
But they are behind on the use of the latest fabrics - better insulation and flexibility at the same time. My Russian relative buys Norwegian brands, for when she goes out (or rather went out - it will be a while before she can go back to Russia) in the snow.
The problem they have is not so much the winter nothing itself - but getting it to their army. Given everything else has been fucked up in their supply lines, and the state of uniforms and living conditions in the pro-Russian media (photos and video), I would tend to doubt that will happen smoothly.
“Tatyana @Stanovaya whose predictions of the war have sadly for all of us been consistently true says the Kremlin with the Duma vote today and referendum announcement is gearing up for an "all-out war" unless Ukraine and the West back down.“
The Hill, which is a pretty solidly conservative publication, has run numerous articles like this recently. Having previously been reliably favourable towards Trump.
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
In that scenario, what happens to the remaining stock of nuclear weapons?
Corruption is bad enough there already and there are any number of Bad Actors who might have enough money to acquire one if state control collapses.
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Similarly sub 50 for Labour would ring alarms
A LibDem gain of course would really put the cat among the pigeons! And is of course highly unlikely! If "highly" is quite high enough!!
Yes this one is beyond even the mighty orange hammer of Thor Davey im afraid
Am surprised labour did so well there. Doesn't look much different from a lot of the red wall seats that went blue.
Its Liverpool/Manchester style NW with Tory inclined agricultural areas rather than ex mining type red wall.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
That's 1 person filing past her every 1.5 seconds
I have been away for a number of weeks so not paying that close attention, but didn't they have 4 lines going past all the time?
2 really.
I didn't go to the Lying-in-State. My wife went to the Buckingham Palace floral tribute thing and the funeral yesterday - so I accompanied her.
At both it was noticeable that they were trying to prevent dense crowds and give people space. At Buckingham Palace they held back the queue and let people through slowly enough that they could lay the tributes in their own time, read stuff etc. At the Funeral, they shut the in flow off early enough that there was about as much space to walk behind the crowd as the crowd itself took up. I've been to quite a few events and gigs and it was obviously designed to be very safe for small children and the older groups.
So, there seemed to be a deliberate policy in the design of the events to prevent dense crowding and not to hurry people.
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Similarly sub 50 for Labour would ring alarms
A LibDem gain of course would really put the cat among the pigeons! And is of course highly unlikely! If "highly" is quite high enough!!
Yes this one is beyond even the mighty orange hammer of Thor Davey im afraid
Am surprised labour did so well there. Doesn't look much different from a lot of the red wall seats that went blue.
Its Liverpool/Manchester style NW with Tory inclined agricultural areas rather than ex mining type red wall.
Half the seat is Skelmersdale, a big Liverpool overspill new town - politically very Merseyside. The other half of the seat is pleasant small town/agricultural, but it's not enough to outweigh Skem. Oh, and there's a university there (Liverpool John Moores, in Ormskirk) - or used to be, anyway.
20 years ago it was more competitive. But the Labour-inclined bits have got more so and the Tory-inclined bits have got less so.
Though the Ukrainians are the ones with the winter gear supplied by the Norwegians. The Russians are still in summer uniforms, judging by the videos...
Do we think their supply chains are good enough, to get winter uniform to the front lines in sufficient quantities?
The Hill, which is a pretty solidly conservative publication, has run numerous articles like this recently. Having previously been reliably favourable towards Trump.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
@Leon - That is sadly a rational analysis. I hope you are wrong.
On a more lighter topic I wanted to ask you advice. My travel is mainly EU based and I haven't needed to worry about return flights or accommodation as being a prerequisite for getting into any country (proof you intend to leave) so don't always book stuff. It didn't cross my mind that this is no longer true and luckily I have got away with it. I have not been challenged, but my cousin was recently when travelling to Madeira of all places.
I get the impression that you take a very flexible attitude to your travel arrangements and travel a lot outside of the EU. You seemed to be making the arrangements on the fly when visiting ex Soviet states recently. Do you have issues with this and how do you get around it.
Though the Ukrainians are the ones with the winter gear supplied by the Norwegians. The Russians are still in summer uniforms, judging by the videos...
Do we think their supply chains are good enough, to get winter uniform to the front lines in sufficient quantities?
Given the problems they seem to have with food and ammunition.....
We weren't queue jumping in the same way as there were no parties in #10 during COVID.....
How they live with themselves, I do not know.
Am I alone in not understanding what they did wrong, if they were just there as reporters?
If they were there as reporters, then we would have seen their report.
Reportedly, it's for a report to be broadcast today.
Don't get me wrong, I have no desire to believe them either guilty or not guilty of queue-jumping.
|I just wonder whether the accusation is based on any facts or not.
Aren’t they presenters of a morning show?
Occam’s razor says it’s a lot easier to release the report they filmed inside Westminster Hall, than to release a number of non-apology apologies and justifications, each one of which digs the hole deeper.
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Similarly sub 50 for Labour would ring alarms
A LibDem gain of course would really put the cat among the pigeons! And is of course highly unlikely! If "highly" is quite high enough!!
Yes this one is beyond even the mighty orange hammer of Thor Davey im afraid
Am surprised labour did so well there. Doesn't look much different from a lot of the red wall seats that went blue.
Its Liverpool/Manchester style NW with Tory inclined agricultural areas rather than ex mining type red wall.
Looking at the demographics it’s remarkably similar to large areas of Essex and inner Kent, which are Tory heartlands. Very white, relatively elderly, middle income.
The recent Bolton council result might give Labour cause for concern. Anything short of a decent swing to Labour is potentially helpful for Truss, in the stopping the rot sense.
Other worries for Labour: at last election a good result for the Brexit party, and a tiny Lib Dem vote. Will be an interesting one to watch.
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Similarly sub 50 for Labour would ring alarms
A LibDem gain of course would really put the cat among the pigeons! And is of course highly unlikely! If "highly" is quite high enough!!
Yes this one is beyond even the mighty orange hammer of Thor Davey im afraid
Am surprised labour did so well there. Doesn't look much different from a lot of the red wall seats that went blue.
Its Liverpool/Manchester style NW with Tory inclined agricultural areas rather than ex mining type red wall.
Ormskirk and Skem?
That's basically Liverpool meats semi-rural. But yes, more Liverpool than Red Wall.
We got married there, in what's basically a rural country house used for weddings and there's quite a bit agriculture leaning there, but its basically the suburbs of Liverpool far more than other towns in the NW red wall are.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
They predicted 2 million.
The monarchy isn’t that popular.
The number who could file through Westminster Hall in the time available was limited by the space and time. The numbers rationed themselves by the queueing mechanism. It was indeed about 1 person per 2 seconds, and there were indeed 4 lines of people. The only way to make it possible for substantially more people to go through would be to forced everybody to walk through at brisk walking pace, without allowing people to stop and bow for a second or two. Or to do it in a much bigger space, with dozens of lines going past. Or to get millions of people lined up along the side of the motorway, with the hearse zooming past for 300 miles. It's a simple matter of capacity, not popularity.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Wrong apocalypse. We are all going to freeze to death or die in the riots when Liz Truss does nothing about the price of energy. Since the experts in the media told us that she would do nothing, this must be true.
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
When Suez happened, I don't recall the world saying that people should go lightly on the UK/France etc because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the French because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened a second time, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the US because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the USSR because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened again, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the US, French & UK because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
Hmmmmm.....
I am sure you are aware that the USA did use nuclear weapons when Japan did not go lightly on them
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
@Leon - That is sadly a rational analysis. I hope you are wrong.
On a more lighter topic I wanted to ask you advice. My travel is mainly EU based and I haven't needed to worry about return flights or accommodation as being a prerequisite for getting into any country (proof you intend to leave) so don't always book stuff. It didn't cross my mind that this is no longer true and luckily I have got away with it. I have not been challenged, but my cousin was recently when travelling to Madeira of all places.
I get the impression that you take a very flexible attitude to your travel arrangements and travel a lot outside of the EU. You seemed to be making the arrangements on the fly when visiting ex Soviet states recently. Do you have issues with this and how do you get around it.
I’ve never been asked and it’s never been a problem
One thing I noted on my recent flights into Portugal and out of Spain is that border officials have stopped looking through the pages of my passport to check if I’ve overstepped my EU 90 day travel allowance. They just stamp the passport, shrug, and off you go. Saves a lot of time
However I did also have to use e-gates at both frontiers
Are the e-gates now so sophisticated they are compiling EU-wide data on every British tourist in the EU? So your comings and goings are logged in Brussels?
Or have they simply abandoned any attempt to track us, as too slow and difficult?
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Similarly sub 50 for Labour would ring alarms
A LibDem gain of course would really put the cat among the pigeons! And is of course highly unlikely! If "highly" is quite high enough!!
Yes this one is beyond even the mighty orange hammer of Thor Davey im afraid
Am surprised labour did so well there. Doesn't look much different from a lot of the red wall seats that went blue.
Its Liverpool/Manchester style NW with Tory inclined agricultural areas rather than ex mining type red wall.
Looking at the demographics it’s remarkably similar to large areas of Essex and inner Kent, which are Tory heartlands. Very white, relatively elderly, middle income.
The recent Bolton council result might give Labour cause for concern. Anything short of a decent swing to Labour is potentially helpful for Truss, in the stopping the rot sense.
Other worries for Labour: at last election a good result for the Brexit party, and a tiny Lib Dem vote. Will be an interesting one to watch.
BXP only got 4.3% in 2019, LDs 4.9% and greens a couple %, nothing to really chew on for anyone (ukip managed 12% in 2015) Tories need to focus on getting their vote out, they won't win but anything north of 30% is positive for next time given it 'should' be a healthy swing to the opposition. If Labour drop below 50% they are struggling
Let's set expectations Should be a walkover for Liz.* 100% a Tory gain...
* the reality is this is about as safe a Labour as you could find - both parties have very consistent share of votes. If however the Tories fall to below 30% (quite possible) Liz may have problems...
Similarly sub 50 for Labour would ring alarms
A LibDem gain of course would really put the cat among the pigeons! And is of course highly unlikely! If "highly" is quite high enough!!
Yes this one is beyond even the mighty orange hammer of Thor Davey im afraid
Am surprised labour did so well there. Doesn't look much different from a lot of the red wall seats that went blue.
Its Liverpool/Manchester style NW with Tory inclined agricultural areas rather than ex mining type red wall.
Looking at the demographics it’s remarkably similar to large areas of Essex and inner Kent, which are Tory heartlands. Very white, relatively elderly, middle income.
The recent Bolton council result might give Labour cause for concern. Anything short of a decent swing to Labour is potentially helpful for Truss, in the stopping the rot sense.
Other worries for Labour: at last election a good result for the Brexit party, and a tiny Lib Dem vote. Will be an interesting one to watch.
This by election might also give certain pollsters cause for concern, if the swings their polls show do not materialise.
“Tatyana @Stanovaya whose predictions of the war have sadly for all of us been consistently true says the Kremlin with the Duma vote today and referendum announcement is gearing up for an "all-out war" unless Ukraine and the West back down.“
'The only way he can break out of this impasse is by a general mobilisation on a full war-footing, but to do that risks exposing the fissures of his regime.'
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
When Suez happened, I don't recall the world saying that people should go lightly on the UK/France etc because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the French because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened a second time, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the US because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the USSR because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened again, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the US, French & UK because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
Hmmmmm.....
I am sure you are aware that the USA did use nuclear weapons when Japan did not go lightly on them
That was before the "M" in MAD.
Also before the taboo on nuclear weapons usage evolved. Which, as Herman Kahn observed, may be one of the best preventers of their use.
"The UK is weighing up whether to attend a new European political "club of nations" next month.
The first meeting of the "European Political Community" is due to be held in Prague in early October.
Downing Street wants to see more detail on the summit before Prime Minister Liz Truss commits to attending it and no final decision has been made."
Whether the UK attends or not, is going to be positively correlated with whether or not one particular large grouping of European countries either attends in its own right, or whips any votes so as to render them meaningless.
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
When Suez happened, I don't recall the world saying that people should go lightly on the UK/France etc because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the French because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened a second time, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the US because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the USSR because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened again, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the US, French & UK because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
Hmmmmm.....
I am sure you are aware that the USA did use nuclear weapons when Japan did not go lightly on them
There are two important distinguishing factors, State.
First, there was every good reason to think the use of the bomb would bring the war to an immediate end and save many lives, mostly of US Serviceman but probably Japanese too.
It was considered necessary to demonstrate that this thing actually worked and just how devastating it could be.
I don't think either consideration applied in the other cases mentioned above.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
They predicted 2 million.
The monarchy isn’t that popular.
The number who could file through Westminster Hall in the time available was limited by the space and time. The numbers rationed themselves by the queueing mechanism. It was indeed about 1 person per 2 seconds, and there were indeed 4 lines of people. The only way to make it possible for substantially more people to go through would be to forced everybody to walk through at brisk walking pace, without allowing people to stop and bow for a second or two. Or to do it in a much bigger space, with dozens of lines going past. Or to get millions of people lined up along the side of the motorway, with the hearse zooming past for 300 miles. It's a simple matter of capacity, not popularity.
Other lying-in-state occasions have pushed huge mobs of people past - many unable to see much. That has been proven to be quite dangerous, of course.
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
When Suez happened, I don't recall the world saying that people should go lightly on the UK/France etc because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the French because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened a second time, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the US because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the USSR because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened again, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the US, French & UK because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
Hmmmmm.....
I am sure you are aware that the USA did use nuclear weapons when Japan did not go lightly on them
There are two important distinguishing factors, State.
First, there was every good reason to think the use of the bomb would bring the war to an immediate end and save many lives, mostly of US Serviceman but probably Japanese too.
It was considered to demonstrate that this thing actually worked and just how devastating it could be.
I don't think either consideration applied in the other cases mentioned above.
not sure the second reason is anything other than trying to placate after the event - I mean two were used on different days when one would have been enough for that. The first reason you give is obviously the reason and may have been logical at the time . Russia would have a simalar reason if they were threatened with collapse
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
The only possible use of nukes I can see is a token one on Snake Island. But World response would be massive - starting with non-military options such as immediate cancellation of every Russian visa with immediate repatriation; immediate freezing of EVERY Russian held bank account..... Ultimatum given to Russia to immediately stand down all forces in Ukraine - and then give them 48 hours to start withdrawing or face direct attack by Nato forces. Meanwhile Ukraine told to observe immediate ceasefire.... Russia already knows this which is why even they would not be so stupid to start..
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
The fact they're losing, heavily, is starting to weigh on their shoulders hence the sabre rattling about nuclear war.
Its an empty threat. Like a young child screaming in a temper tantrum, you just need to ride it out, not give in to them.
When Suez happened, I don't recall the world saying that people should go lightly on the UK/France etc because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the French because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Vietnam happened a second time, I don't recall the world saying that the Vietnamese should go lightly on the US because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the USSR because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
When Afghanistan happened again, I don't recall the world saying that the Afghans should go lightly on the US, French & UK because they might get upset and nuke everyone.
Hmmmmm.....
I am sure you are aware that the USA did use nuclear weapons when Japan did not go lightly on them
That was before the "M" in MAD.
Also before the taboo on nuclear weapons usage evolved. Which, as Herman Kahn observed, may be one of the best preventers of their use.
They were less devastating at that time too. Meetinghouse was more deadly, and used conventional weapons.
The North Korean approach to sabre rattling has usually involved launching “test” long range missile strikes into the sea, and testing nukes. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see something like that.
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
Your scenario requires not only Putin to be irrational, but those down the chain in the military to also be prepared to see them and their loved ones melted.
All for Putin.
Alternatively, they just arrest him. Put him on a show trial. "It was all down to him..."
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Wrong apocalypse. We are all going to freeze to death or die in the riots when Liz Truss does nothing about the price of energy. Since the experts in the media told us that she would do nothing, this must be true.
Our very own Pochdale Rioneers was most insistent on the subject I seem to remember.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Of all the stories-that-shouldn't-be-stories this one ranks pretty highly.
First the spinny wheel of energy bill payments, then the queue jumping. Bit of a trainwreck for "This Morning". Allegedly Willoughby wants out. Old fashioned media kicking for Phil.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Wrong apocalypse. We are all going to freeze to death or die in the riots when Liz Truss does nothing about the price of energy. Since the experts in the media told us that she would do nothing, this must be true.
Our very own Pochdale Rioneers was most insistent on the subject I seem to remember.
To be fair that was based on her and her campaign team saying they were looking at tax cuts and offering hope, not handouts.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
@Leon - That is sadly a rational analysis. I hope you are wrong.
On a more lighter topic I wanted to ask you advice. My travel is mainly EU based and I haven't needed to worry about return flights or accommodation as being a prerequisite for getting into any country (proof you intend to leave) so don't always book stuff. It didn't cross my mind that this is no longer true and luckily I have got away with it. I have not been challenged, but my cousin was recently when travelling to Madeira of all places.
I get the impression that you take a very flexible attitude to your travel arrangements and travel a lot outside of the EU. You seemed to be making the arrangements on the fly when visiting ex Soviet states recently. Do you have issues with this and how do you get around it.
I’ve never been asked and it’s never been a problem
One thing I noted on my recent flights into Portugal and out of Spain is that border officials have stopped looking through the pages of my passport to check if I’ve overstepped my EU 90 day travel allowance. They just stamp the passport, shrug, and off you go. Saves a lot of time
However I did also have to use e-gates at both frontiers
Are the e-gates now so sophisticated they are compiling EU-wide data on every British tourist in the EU? So your comings and goings are logged in Brussels?
Or have they simply abandoned any attempt to track us, as too slow and difficult?
The issue wasn't the 90 days* but that you can prove you are leaving. He was asked to show he had a return flight (which he could do). I have never been asked that and on many occasions I would not have been able to do so. I assume this is more common when travelling elsewhere (flights to USA?) and guessed you had come across it and how you get around it. I note from the internet people book flights they have no intention of taking and cancel them or even use mocked up tickets. Sounds risky to me.
* He actually endured more than just having to prove he was leaving. He was lucky he had tickets as he has a place there and often would not have booked the flight home before arriving. However when shown the tickets the border official told him he would be exceeding his 90 day allowance. Thus followed a stand up, 'No I won't', Yes you will' and at which point he had to wait for everyone to go through before people got out their calculators. At this point they said they would let him off this time, which should be interpreted as 'Sorry we got it wrong'. Why can officials never admit they got something wrong?
Of all the stories-that-shouldn't-be-stories this one ranks pretty highly.
First the spinny wheel of energy bill payments, then the queue jumping. Bit of a trainwreck for "This Morning". Allegedly Willoughby wants out. Old fashioned media kicking for Phil.
Next they are eating roast swan and drinking from golden goblets on our behalf. The absolute heroes.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
They predicted 2 million.
The monarchy isn’t that popular.
It's a supply problem rather than a demand one.
One difference to King George VI and Winston Churchill is that, if you watch the footage from then, people just walked past en-bloc and had a look. What we do today would have been considered emotional.
For QEII each person had 4-5 seconds to pause, bow, curtesy or salute and that will have constricted flow.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
The only possible use of nukes I can see is a token one on Snake Island. But World response would be massive - starting with non-military options such as immediate cancellation of every Russian visa with immediate repatriation; immediate freezing of EVERY Russian held bank account..... Ultimatum given to Russia to immediately stand down all forces in Ukraine - and then give them 48 hours to start withdrawing or face direct attack by Nato forces. Meanwhile Ukraine told to observe immediate ceasefire.... Russia already knows this which is why even they would not be so stupid to start..
The use of even a token nuke would be a terrible precedent that would require a maximalist response. A complete end to all Russian trade, freezing of all financial transactions, massive cyber attacks, a full propaganda effort to the Russian people of Putin's personal corruption, provision of fighter jets to Ukraine, sign off on Ukraine using HIMARS against territory in Russia. Putin knows this, which is why he won't do it.
As for annexing Luhansk and Donetsk, Russia doesn't even control all of that territory and does not have the ability to take it back. So Putin would then be saying Ukrainians hold and govern sovereign Russian territory and is powerless to repel the invaders. It would be humiliating. Plus the Russian population would not comply with conscription. It would end in Putin's removal from power.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
They let people dawdle far too much - meaning queues lasted far longer than they should and far fewer people got in than might have done
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
What we need to be able to calculate is the 'natural' maximum capacity of a 4-day lying-in-state event.
It will never be longer due to the need for the funeral, and it was already open 23 hours a day, so the options you have are to remove the cleaning, speed up the guard changes (and lose some of the ceremony) or frogmarch people past it quickly.
Probably 350-400k is the maximum. So I'm not sure how DCMS ever expected a million to get through.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
The guy from row 14 doesnt worry anybody, Europe needs to plan its response to such a provocation and escalation.
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
Your scenario requires not only Putin to be irrational, but those down the chain in the military to also be prepared to see them and their loved ones melted.
All for Putin.
Alternatively, they just arrest him. Put him on a show trial. "It was all down to him..."
Yep, we have to hope for some sane men in between Putin and the actual big red button.
Sane, meaning collectively willing to stage a military coup in order to see their families again.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Wrong apocalypse. We are all going to freeze to death or die in the riots when Liz Truss does nothing about the price of energy. Since the experts in the media told us that she would do nothing, this must be true.
Our very own Pochdale Rioneers was most insistent on the subject I seem to remember.
To be fair that was based on her and her campaign team saying they were looking at tax cuts and offering hope, not handouts.
Odd how so many of us managed to come to a less apocalyptic conclusion then.
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Pipes move up from awesome to legendary Britain is still big dog
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
They predicted 2 million.
The monarchy isn’t that popular.
It's a supply problem rather than a demand one.
One difference to King George VI and Winston Churchill is that, if you watch the footage from then, people just walked past en-bloc and had a look. What we do today would have been considered emotional.
For QEII each person had 4-5 seconds to pause, bow, curtesy or salute and that will have constricted flow.
I was pleasantly surprised that not a single person out of such a large number went for a shot of digital fame by doing something crass - like twerking or something - during their 5 seconds.
It does appear that the Russians are moving more military assets out of Crimea. After the Air Force and most of the Fleet, now even the submarines are moving away from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk. More strategic towns gained by the defenders in the East too, further cutting off enemy supply lines as autumn arrives and the mud starts to return.
Oh to be a fly on the wall in the Kremlin at the moment. We just have to hope, that there’s enough sensible people between Putin and the big red button. The Russian military has been humiliated, and the worry is that Putin is now cornered with no sensible escape route.
He doesn’t dare introduce conscription, because it would be wildly unpopular and he doesn’t have the resources to train and equip tens of thousands of conscripts. He’s already played the gas card, and while it’s going to be a difficult winter it won’t be existential for European economies. Western sanctions are biting, especially on capital equipment needed to maintain domestic production, but also on Western consumer goods that the Muscovite middle-classes are used to.
So what happens next? Hopefully not something stupid.
His focus will turn inwards, on fighting against internal rivals, enemies and potential plotters.
If the Russian Navy has effectively relocated out of Sevastopol then there isn't much left for Russia to fight for in Ukraine. They've lost already and that loss has not led to a nuclear escalation.
There seems to be a desperation from the Luhansk and Donetsk so-called People's Republics to be recognised as part of Russia, presumably because they realise that if that doesn't happen it is easier for Russia to withdraw and leave them to fight Ukraine with minimal support.
Crimea isn't recognised as part of Russia, so what chance is there that Luhansk and Donetsk will be?
None, but that wasn't my point.
Russia was asked for military support by Armenia and did not provide any. As long as Donetsk/Luhansk are recognised by the Kremlin as independent, rather than part of Russia, the easier it is for Russia to withdraw, because they will lose less as a result.
Crimea is more important to them. At some point Russia will have to withdraw from everywhere else in an attempt to hold Crimea. Their puppets in Luhansk/Donetsk can see that day coming closer and want to forestall it.
Crimea is important because Sevastopol has strategic importance for Russia, not because Russia claims it as theirs. Russia claims it as theirs, because they value it.
The puppets in Luhansk and Donetsk are doomed, because yes the Russians don't value them as much as Crimea and even if Russia started claiming them as their own (which Russia won't until the war is over) it won't be recognised and the war will go on and Russia will prioritise Crimea if need be.
But even Crimea isn't safe, and we all see that. If Luhansk and Donetsk want to be like Crimea, when Russia is retreating from Crimea . . . well what more can be said?
Crimea is sort-of historically Russian. One solution might be for Russia to offer to buy Crimea from Ukraine for elebenty squillion dollars. Russia gets Crimea; Ukraine gets money to rebuild spend on American weapons; most importantly, the United States has itself a history of buying states so can go along with this.
It is very "sort-of," though.
Going back in time, it's been legally Ukrainian since 1954 (66 years - since 1991 as an oblast of Ukraine, and from 1954-1991 as part of the Ukraine SSR). For 9 years before that, it was an oblast of the Russian SSR, and for 24 years before that, an independent SSR within the Soviet Union.
From 1783-1917 (134 years) it was indeed part of Russia, but before that, it was all over the place (Crimean Khanate from 1443-1783, going further back, we've got the Golden Horde, Principality of Theodoro, Venetians, Genoans, and before them, much of it was under the Kievan Rus (the predecessors of Ukraine, anyway).
Very complicated history, and only a fraction of it was under the Russians.
Some of my ancestors came from that neck of the woods.
Apparently there is an old joke which varied according to the age of the teller - "Born in country A, lived in B, C, D etc. Then I left the village."
It's still worth remembering that in what is afaics the only referendum that can be trusted (1991) all areas voted for Ukrainian independence, including Crimea.
Since then we have had all the stuff since 2014, and more recently God knows how many people driven out or deported to Russia. Plus at present part of the area (prob not Crimea yet but that is already annexed, but yes in Donbas / Luhansk) is still in the possession of Ukraine.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Wrong apocalypse. We are all going to freeze to death or die in the riots when Liz Truss does nothing about the price of energy. Since the experts in the media told us that she would do nothing, this must be true.
Our very own Pochdale Rioneers was most insistent on the subject I seem to remember.
There was no assistance to anyone in lockdown. This was confidently predicted by the insiders in the media. There will be no assistance with energy bills this winter. This was confidently predicted by the insiders in the media.
Are you one of those fascists who question the media?
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
They predicted 2 million.
The monarchy isn’t that popular.
It's a supply problem rather than a demand one.
One difference to King George VI and Winston Churchill is that, if you watch the footage from then, people just walked past en-bloc and had a look. What we do today would have been considered emotional.
For QEII each person had 4-5 seconds to pause, bow, curtesy or salute and that will have constricted flow.
I was pleasantly surprised that not a single person out of such a large number went for a shot of digital fame by doing something crass - like twerking or something - during their 5 seconds.
Well we did have the one guy who tried to get inside the coffin....not sure it was for the likes on Instanta though.
I am guessing one of the thoughts behind making it a ticketless queue that would stretch for many many hours was that it would put off chancers and idiots (and those who had spilled out of the pubs / clubs probably sobered up after 14hrs waiting in the cold).
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Pipes move up from awesome to legendary Britain is still big dog
We still have enough mounted cavalry to drive the Russians out of Ukraine.
"The UK is weighing up whether to attend a new European political "club of nations" next month.
The first meeting of the "European Political Community" is due to be held in Prague in early October.
Downing Street wants to see more detail on the summit before Prime Minister Liz Truss commits to attending it and no final decision has been made."
It has Europe in the name so no 10 will turn down the invitation . And Truss is a puppet of the ERG who will implode if she dared attend anything that looked like co-operating with EU countries .
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
What we need to be able to calculate is the 'natural' maximum capacity of a 4-day lying-in-state event.
It will never be longer due to the need for the funeral, and it was already open 23 hours a day, so the options you have are to remove the cleaning, speed up the guard changes (and lose some of the ceremony) or frogmarch people past it quickly.
Probably 350-400k is the maximum. So I'm not sure how DCMS ever expected a million to get through.
Maybe they thought people wouldn't pause?
They pulled a number out of their arse, not bothering to check it with any kind of reality?
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
@Leon - That is sadly a rational analysis. I hope you are wrong.
On a more lighter topic I wanted to ask you advice. My travel is mainly EU based and I haven't needed to worry about return flights or accommodation as being a prerequisite for getting into any country (proof you intend to leave) so don't always book stuff. It didn't cross my mind that this is no longer true and luckily I have got away with it. I have not been challenged, but my cousin was recently when travelling to Madeira of all places.
I get the impression that you take a very flexible attitude to your travel arrangements and travel a lot outside of the EU. You seemed to be making the arrangements on the fly when visiting ex Soviet states recently. Do you have issues with this and how do you get around it.
I’ve never been asked and it’s never been a problem
One thing I noted on my recent flights into Portugal and out of Spain is that border officials have stopped looking through the pages of my passport to check if I’ve overstepped my EU 90 day travel allowance. They just stamp the passport, shrug, and off you go. Saves a lot of time
However I did also have to use e-gates at both frontiers
Are the e-gates now so sophisticated they are compiling EU-wide data on every British tourist in the EU? So your comings and goings are logged in Brussels?
Or have they simply abandoned any attempt to track us, as too slow and difficult?
The issue wasn't the 90 days* but that you can prove you are leaving. He was asked to show he had a return flight (which he could do). I have never been asked that and on many occasions I would not have been able to do so. I assume this is more common when travelling elsewhere (flights to USA?) and guessed you had come across it and how you get around it. I note from the internet people book flights they have no intention of taking and cancel them or even use mocked up tickets. Sounds risky to me.
* He actually endured more than just having to prove he was leaving. He was lucky he had tickets as he has a place there and often would not have booked the flight home before arriving. However when shown the tickets the border official told him he would be exceeding his 90 day allowance. Thus followed a stand up, 'No I won't', Yes you will' and at which point he had to wait for everyone to go through before people got out their calculators. At this point they said they would let him off this time, which should be interpreted as 'Sorry we got it wrong'. Why can officials never admit they got something wrong?
Every trip I've been on in the EU, they ask i) what I am doing ii) where exactly I am going iii) how I am getting there, iv) when am I leaving. Never been asked for 'proof' though because I suppose they were happy with my answers. Not quite as annoying as the US border guard.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
What we need to be able to calculate is the 'natural' maximum capacity of a 4-day lying-in-state event.
It will never be longer due to the need for the funeral, and it was already open 23 hours a day, so the options you have are to remove the cleaning, speed up the guard changes (and lose some of the ceremony) or frogmarch people past it quickly.
Probably 350-400k is the maximum. So I'm not sure how DCMS ever expected a million to get through.
Maybe they thought people wouldn't pause?
They pulled a number out of their arse, not bothering to check it with any kind of reality?
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Wrong apocalypse. We are all going to freeze to death or die in the riots when Liz Truss does nothing about the price of energy. Since the experts in the media told us that she would do nothing, this must be true.
Our very own Pochdale Rioneers was most insistent on the subject I seem to remember.
To be fair that was based on her and her campaign team saying they were looking at tax cuts and offering hope, not handouts.
But turns out to be handouts not hope. Oh dear. Live by the soundbite ...
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
What we need to be able to calculate is the 'natural' maximum capacity of a 4-day lying-in-state event.
It will never be longer due to the need for the funeral, and it was already open 23 hours a day, so the options you have are to remove the cleaning, speed up the guard changes (and lose some of the ceremony) or frogmarch people past it quickly.
Probably 350-400k is the maximum. So I'm not sure how DCMS ever expected a million to get through.
Maybe they thought people wouldn't pause?
You'd not want to be rushing the public down those wide staircases with no handrails. One trip and you risk another Ibrox or Bethnal Green. The guard changes did seem stupidly slow, presumably because everything was done at slow march.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
What we need to be able to calculate is the 'natural' maximum capacity of a 4-day lying-in-state event.
It will never be longer due to the need for the funeral, and it was already open 23 hours a day, so the options you have are to remove the cleaning, speed up the guard changes (and lose some of the ceremony) or frogmarch people past it quickly.
Probably 350-400k is the maximum. So I'm not sure how DCMS ever expected a million to get through.
Maybe they thought people wouldn't pause?
A travelator goes past the crown jewels in the tower of London. Could have worked here too with being too tacky.
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
@Leon - That is sadly a rational analysis. I hope you are wrong.
On a more lighter topic I wanted to ask you advice. My travel is mainly EU based and I haven't needed to worry about return flights or accommodation as being a prerequisite for getting into any country (proof you intend to leave) so don't always book stuff. It didn't cross my mind that this is no longer true and luckily I have got away with it. I have not been challenged, but my cousin was recently when travelling to Madeira of all places.
I get the impression that you take a very flexible attitude to your travel arrangements and travel a lot outside of the EU. You seemed to be making the arrangements on the fly when visiting ex Soviet states recently. Do you have issues with this and how do you get around it.
I’ve never been asked and it’s never been a problem
One thing I noted on my recent flights into Portugal and out of Spain is that border officials have stopped looking through the pages of my passport to check if I’ve overstepped my EU 90 day travel allowance. They just stamp the passport, shrug, and off you go. Saves a lot of time
However I did also have to use e-gates at both frontiers
Are the e-gates now so sophisticated they are compiling EU-wide data on every British tourist in the EU? So your comings and goings are logged in Brussels?
Or have they simply abandoned any attempt to track us, as too slow and difficult?
The issue wasn't the 90 days* but that you can prove you are leaving. He was asked to show he had a return flight (which he could do). I have never been asked that and on many occasions I would not have been able to do so. I assume this is more common when travelling elsewhere (flights to USA?) and guessed you had come across it and how you get around it. I note from the internet people book flights they have no intention of taking and cancel them or even use mocked up tickets. Sounds risky to me.
* He actually endured more than just having to prove he was leaving. He was lucky he had tickets as he has a place there and often would not have booked the flight home before arriving. However when shown the tickets the border official told him he would be exceeding his 90 day allowance. Thus followed a stand up, 'No I won't', Yes you will' and at which point he had to wait for everyone to go through before people got out their calculators. At this point they said they would let him off this time, which should be interpreted as 'Sorry we got it wrong'. Why can officials never admit they got something wrong?
Every trip I've been on in the EU, they ask i) what I am doing ii) where exactly I am going iii) how I am getting there, iv) when am I leaving. Never been asked for 'proof' though because I suppose they were happy with my answers. Not quite as annoying as the US border guard.
Sounds exactly like what happens when you enter the UK as an ‘alien’. Don’t try applying for a visa without a return flight already booked either.
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
@Leon - That is sadly a rational analysis. I hope you are wrong.
On a more lighter topic I wanted to ask you advice. My travel is mainly EU based and I haven't needed to worry about return flights or accommodation as being a prerequisite for getting into any country (proof you intend to leave) so don't always book stuff. It didn't cross my mind that this is no longer true and luckily I have got away with it. I have not been challenged, but my cousin was recently when travelling to Madeira of all places.
I get the impression that you take a very flexible attitude to your travel arrangements and travel a lot outside of the EU. You seemed to be making the arrangements on the fly when visiting ex Soviet states recently. Do you have issues with this and how do you get around it.
I’ve never been asked and it’s never been a problem
One thing I noted on my recent flights into Portugal and out of Spain is that border officials have stopped looking through the pages of my passport to check if I’ve overstepped my EU 90 day travel allowance. They just stamp the passport, shrug, and off you go. Saves a lot of time
However I did also have to use e-gates at both frontiers
Are the e-gates now so sophisticated they are compiling EU-wide data on every British tourist in the EU? So your comings and goings are logged in Brussels?
Or have they simply abandoned any attempt to track us, as too slow and difficult?
The issue wasn't the 90 days* but that you can prove you are leaving. He was asked to show he had a return flight (which he could do). I have never been asked that and on many occasions I would not have been able to do so. I assume this is more common when travelling elsewhere (flights to USA?) and guessed you had come across it and how you get around it. I note from the internet people book flights they have no intention of taking and cancel them or even use mocked up tickets. Sounds risky to me.
* He actually endured more than just having to prove he was leaving. He was lucky he had tickets as he has a place there and often would not have booked the flight home before arriving. However when shown the tickets the border official told him he would be exceeding his 90 day allowance. Thus followed a stand up, 'No I won't', Yes you will' and at which point he had to wait for everyone to go through before people got out their calculators. At this point they said they would let him off this time, which should be interpreted as 'Sorry we got it wrong'. Why can officials never admit they got something wrong?
Every trip I've been on in the EU, they ask i) what I am doing ii) where exactly I am going iii) how I am getting there, iv) when am I leaving. Never been asked for 'proof' though because I suppose they were happy with my answers. Not quite as annoying as the US border guard.
Gosh, you must look right dodgy; I have never been asked any of that, which is a good job as I couldn't have answered some of those questions.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
What we need to be able to calculate is the 'natural' maximum capacity of a 4-day lying-in-state event.
It will never be longer due to the need for the funeral, and it was already open 23 hours a day, so the options you have are to remove the cleaning, speed up the guard changes (and lose some of the ceremony) or frogmarch people past it quickly.
Probably 350-400k is the maximum. So I'm not sure how DCMS ever expected a million to get through.
Maybe they thought people wouldn't pause?
They pulled a number out of their arse, not bothering to check it with any kind of reality?
Does that mean the 200k who saw the queen mum is also debatable? Can't imagine only 25% more would see HMQ.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
They predicted 2 million.
The monarchy isn’t that popular.
It's a supply problem rather than a demand one.
One difference to King George VI and Winston Churchill is that, if you watch the footage from then, people just walked past en-bloc and had a look. What we do today would have been considered emotional.
For QEII each person had 4-5 seconds to pause, bow, curtesy or salute and that will have constricted flow.
I was pleasantly surprised that not a single person out of such a large number went for a shot of digital fame by doing something crass - like twerking or something - during their 5 seconds.
Well we did have the one guy who tried to get inside the coffin....not sure it was for the likes on Instanta though.
I am guessing one of the thoughts behind making it a ticketless queue that would stretch for many many hours was that it would put off chancers and idiots (and those who had spilled out of the pubs / clubs probably sobered up after 14hrs waiting in the cold).
And we had the one who admitted to "drilling through the box" with his eyes. "Casino Royale" I think he was called - crazy name crazy guy!
But you know what I mean - no "wackiness". Which despite the control of the long long wait still does surprise me (in a good way).
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
What we need to be able to calculate is the 'natural' maximum capacity of a 4-day lying-in-state event.
It will never be longer due to the need for the funeral, and it was already open 23 hours a day, so the options you have are to remove the cleaning, speed up the guard changes (and lose some of the ceremony) or frogmarch people past it quickly.
Probably 350-400k is the maximum. So I'm not sure how DCMS ever expected a million to get through.
Maybe they thought people wouldn't pause?
They pulled a number out of their arse, not bothering to check it with any kind of reality?
Does that mean the 200k who saw the queen mum is also debatable? Can't imagine only 25% more would see HMQ.
No, it means that if you limit the number of people going past a coffin to those that can see it and pass at a slow pace, there is a ceiling to how many people can do so.
If you replaced the two lines we saw with two groups packed together, 15 deep on each side, with no space to breathe, then you could get a lot more people through.
They're rather telegraphing their next moves aren't they? Reminds me of all the choreography involving jets flying to and from Siberian nuclear hideouts back in the spring.
Some mentioned a few days ago that somewhere in the depths of the Kremlin there's a brainstorming session with "how do we get ourselves out of this" on a whiteboard. Clearly in that workshop the decision was:
- A couple of referendums to create facts on the ground. That seemed to work in 2014 - One more round of nuclear blackmail. The gas thing didn't work but we know the West are scared of nukes - In the meantime do a bit of good-cop bad-cop and get Erdogan to let the world know we're ready to talk with Ukraine - We then announce a ceasefire and a proposal to retain the whole of Donetsk and Luhansk along with Kherson (we can give that one away later) - Rest of the world will jump at the opportunity to bring this one to a conclusion and get their gas back
That sounds plausible
Unfortunately I suspect they’ve folded a small nuclear strike into that scenario, to frighten the shit out of everyone. Nothing apocalyptic, but nuclear, yes
Nah. India and China have firmly told them that if they use nukes, they are alone in a very cold world.
Diplomatic pressure on India and China to stop buying oil and gas for example would be immense. Every means of isolation not fully used would be. SWIFT ends, any loopholes, sanctions busters come down on like a ton of bricks. Then just let Russia collapse. Meanwhile, supply Ukraine with every piece of kit they want that isn't a nuke.
That’s all very rational, I fear we are not dealing with a rational actor
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
@Leon - That is sadly a rational analysis. I hope you are wrong.
On a more lighter topic I wanted to ask you advice. My travel is mainly EU based and I haven't needed to worry about return flights or accommodation as being a prerequisite for getting into any country (proof you intend to leave) so don't always book stuff. It didn't cross my mind that this is no longer true and luckily I have got away with it. I have not been challenged, but my cousin was recently when travelling to Madeira of all places.
I get the impression that you take a very flexible attitude to your travel arrangements and travel a lot outside of the EU. You seemed to be making the arrangements on the fly when visiting ex Soviet states recently. Do you have issues with this and how do you get around it.
I’ve never been asked and it’s never been a problem
One thing I noted on my recent flights into Portugal and out of Spain is that border officials have stopped looking through the pages of my passport to check if I’ve overstepped my EU 90 day travel allowance. They just stamp the passport, shrug, and off you go. Saves a lot of time
However I did also have to use e-gates at both frontiers
Are the e-gates now so sophisticated they are compiling EU-wide data on every British tourist in the EU? So your comings and goings are logged in Brussels?
Or have they simply abandoned any attempt to track us, as too slow and difficult?
The issue wasn't the 90 days* but that you can prove you are leaving. He was asked to show he had a return flight (which he could do). I have never been asked that and on many occasions I would not have been able to do so. I assume this is more common when travelling elsewhere (flights to USA?) and guessed you had come across it and how you get around it. I note from the internet people book flights they have no intention of taking and cancel them or even use mocked up tickets. Sounds risky to me.
* He actually endured more than just having to prove he was leaving. He was lucky he had tickets as he has a place there and often would not have booked the flight home before arriving. However when shown the tickets the border official told him he would be exceeding his 90 day allowance. Thus followed a stand up, 'No I won't', Yes you will' and at which point he had to wait for everyone to go through before people got out their calculators. At this point they said they would let him off this time, which should be interpreted as 'Sorry we got it wrong'. Why can officials never admit they got something wrong?
Every trip I've been on in the EU, they ask i) what I am doing ii) where exactly I am going iii) how I am getting there, iv) when am I leaving. Never been asked for 'proof' though because I suppose they were happy with my answers. Not quite as annoying as the US border guard.
Gosh, you must look right dodgy; I have never been asked any of that, which is a good job as I couldn't have answered some of those questions.
Its the nordic countries. I imagine some other countries are less bothered? FWIW they seemed to ask the same questions to everyone in the queue.
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Mrs DA's review of it was that it was "very white". Lol. The Ukrainians were semi-baffled, possibly thinking it was something to do with Harry Potter.
~250k saw the Queen lying in state, that seems a lot less than I would have guessed given what was it 4-5 days / 24hrs a day / 12 hour queues.
The length of the queue is a red herring imo. Instead look at the rate at which people passed the coffin. Back of an envelope:-
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so, 2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute 60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning) = 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000 Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000 Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
What we need to be able to calculate is the 'natural' maximum capacity of a 4-day lying-in-state event.
It will never be longer due to the need for the funeral, and it was already open 23 hours a day, so the options you have are to remove the cleaning, speed up the guard changes (and lose some of the ceremony) or frogmarch people past it quickly.
Probably 350-400k is the maximum. So I'm not sure how DCMS ever expected a million to get through.
Maybe they thought people wouldn't pause?
Hmmm. Various commentators seem to be forgetting about the 35k (?) in Edinburgh and disabled queue, and the journalists jumping the queue. Though the numbers are in the same range as previous occasions. Perhaps surprising that the the airport type security did not strangle it more. Does Westminster hall have capacity / circulation for two streams and two queues?
The Telegraph has at least one long article doing a top trumps between a number of state funerals.
I'm a little bemused at the 4 day limit. HMXQ is in a lead-lined coffin so it could perhaps be extended - even if they didn't go perma-embalmo like Lenin (who got 100k in 6 weeks!).
They *could* do it like Kilroy-Silk, and do the embalming whilst the subject is still alive.
Russia’s former president Dmitry Medvedev says if Ukraine’s breakaway regions vote to join Russia, it will allow Moscow to utilise its full military capability in the Donbass region Follow our live coverage:👇
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
Dropping a "small nuke" brings an immediate and devastating response from the US.
Which is what? The USA won’t start all-out war over Ukraine
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
Russia using nukes wouldn't be in response to anything other than Putin being made to look a failure.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that ) Princess Charlotte is the BOSS Becks is fundamentally a very nice man Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
Pipes move up from awesome to legendary Britain is still big dog
We still have enough mounted cavalry to drive the Russians out of Ukraine.
"The UK is weighing up whether to attend a new European political "club of nations" next month.
The first meeting of the "European Political Community" is due to be held in Prague in early October.
Downing Street wants to see more detail on the summit before Prime Minister Liz Truss commits to attending it and no final decision has been made."
It has Europe in the name so no 10 will turn down the invitation . And Truss is a puppet of the ERG who will implode if she dared attend anything that looked like co-operating with EU countries .
The main issue is that it would continue the situation of a dominant inner circle that can force the outer circle into compliance. If a new broader forum is needed, it should include Canada and the US so no bloc has a majority of votes.
Comments
But no one was running round tell the North Vietnamese that they needed to give up South Vietnam because otherwise WWIII
I'm just curious why "Modern" Russia is being portrayed, by it's friends, as a psychotic toddler.
Look at it from Putin’s perspective. You’re getting your arse kicked in a disastrous war. This is a war YOU chose, for no obvious reason and with no obvious goal. 50,000 of your soldiers have died. You’ve crippled Russia’s economy
There is no way you can win, with conventional forces now. Even mobilization will take many months
Meanwhile you are losing ground, and you’re heading for humiliating defeat, even as your biggest critics in Moscow are hawks who want MORE war
The end is nigh. When you are defeated you will probably be toppled like Gadaffi, as will everyone around you. The entire elite. Lynched
So: roll the nuclear dice. Change the game. Terrify the world
New evidence shows GOP’s Trump problem may be getting worse
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3651178-new-evidence-shows-gops-trump-problem-may-be-getting-worse/
They tend to avoid criticising him directly, while pointing out he's becoming an electoral liability.
Just more straws in the wind, but I predict he is done.
We will oppose this anti-democratic move on Conference floor.
"I’m told the NEC has now voted for a rule change that would mean constitutional amendments have to be put in by CLPs one year before Conference"
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1572190532541247488?s=20&t=so-Pxc8D72C1ByxCwDd2tA
But they are behind on the use of the latest fabrics - better insulation and flexibility at the same time. My Russian relative buys Norwegian brands, for when she goes out (or rather went out - it will be a while before she can go back to Russia) in the snow.
The problem they have is not so much the winter nothing itself - but getting it to their army. Given everything else has been fucked up in their supply lines, and the state of uniforms and living conditions in the pro-Russian media (photos and video), I would tend to doubt that will happen smoothly.
And that opens a whole different set of issues...
A “sane” Donald Trump who would probably win
That degree of uniformity happens surprisingly rarely.
A nation united in neutral weather.
Corruption is bad enough there already and there are any number of Bad Actors who might have enough money to acquire one if state control collapses.
Hard to see any other plausible response though.
The monarchy isn’t that popular.
I didn't go to the Lying-in-State. My wife went to the Buckingham Palace floral tribute thing and the funeral yesterday - so I accompanied her.
At both it was noticeable that they were trying to prevent dense crowds and give people space. At Buckingham Palace they held back the queue and let people through slowly enough that they could lay the tributes in their own time, read stuff etc. At the Funeral, they shut the in flow off early enough that there was about as much space to walk behind the crowd as the crowd itself took up. I've been to quite a few events and gigs and it was obviously designed to be very safe for small children and the older groups.
So, there seemed to be a deliberate policy in the design of the events to prevent dense crowding and not to hurry people.
The other half of the seat is pleasant small town/agricultural, but it's not enough to outweigh Skem.
Oh, and there's a university there (Liverpool John Moores, in Ormskirk) - or used to be, anyway.
20 years ago it was more competitive. But the Labour-inclined bits have got more so and the Tory-inclined bits have got less so.
The Hill has been running plenty of stories along these lines, too.
https://thehill.com/latino/3651150-democrats-think-gop-governors-may-torpedo-republicans-with-immigrant-moves/
Follow our live coverage:👇
https://twitter.com/trtworld/status/1572186105180753920?s=21&t=QcO9seL-PzoJKd7FeuMw6w
= full mobilisation
My best guess:
Russia will give itself the option of all-out war next spring, via this legal route - ‘Russia itself is being attacked’
In the interim they will halt the Ukrainian advance by dropping a small nuke, on Snake Island or wherever. Somewhere that the fall-out can be restricted (so not the Zap plant)
This could easily work. The west will tell Ukraine to back down, they might back down anyway. The world goes into a brutal new Cold War, Russia holds onto its “gains” in Ukraine at a terrible price. Putin can claim some gargoyle of a victory
The world goes on. Sighs of relief are heard. We get used to the new reality
On a more lighter topic I wanted to ask you advice. My travel is mainly EU based and I haven't needed to worry about return flights or accommodation as being a prerequisite for getting into any country (proof you intend to leave) so don't always book stuff. It didn't cross my mind that this is no longer true and luckily I have got away with it. I have not been challenged, but my cousin was recently when travelling to Madeira of all places.
I get the impression that you take a very flexible attitude to your travel arrangements and travel a lot outside of the EU. You seemed to be making the arrangements on the fly when visiting ex Soviet states recently. Do you have issues with this and how do you get around it.
Occam’s razor says it’s a lot easier to release the report they filmed inside Westminster Hall, than to release a number of non-apology apologies and justifications, each one of which digs the hole deeper.
The recent Bolton council result might give Labour cause for concern. Anything short of a decent swing to Labour is potentially helpful for Truss, in the stopping the rot sense.
Other worries for Labour: at last election a good result for the Brexit party, and a tiny Lib Dem vote. Will be an interesting one to watch.
The law is clear on this.
Joining Russia must be favourite.
That's basically Liverpool meats semi-rural. But yes, more Liverpool than Red Wall.
We got married there, in what's basically a rural country house used for weddings and there's quite a bit agriculture leaning there, but its basically the suburbs of Liverpool far more than other towns in the NW red wall are.
But, you say Putin isn't acting rationally.
So, he won't do it.
https://twitter.com/AndreasSteno/status/1571843888020692992?s=20&t=so-Pxc8D72C1ByxCwDd2tA
https://twitter.com/Dominos_UK/status/1572185336188633088
One thing I noted on my recent flights into Portugal and out of Spain is that border officials have stopped looking through the pages of my passport to check if I’ve overstepped my EU 90 day travel allowance. They just stamp the passport, shrug, and off you go. Saves a lot of time
However I did also have to use e-gates at both frontiers
Are the e-gates now so sophisticated they are compiling EU-wide data on every British tourist in the EU? So your comings and goings are logged in Brussels?
Or have they simply abandoned any attempt to track us, as too slow and difficult?
"The UK is weighing up whether to attend a new European political "club of nations" next month.
The first meeting of the "European Political Community" is due to be held in Prague in early October.
Downing Street wants to see more detail on the summit before Prime Minister Liz Truss commits to attending it and no final decision has been made."
Tories need to focus on getting their vote out, they won't win but anything north of 30% is positive for next time given it 'should' be a healthy swing to the opposition.
If Labour drop below 50% they are struggling
'The only way he can break out of this impasse is by a general mobilisation on a full war-footing, but to do that risks exposing the fissures of his regime.'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/09/20/talk-british-fiscal-crisis-vastly-overblown/
Also before the taboo on nuclear weapons usage evolved. Which, as Herman Kahn observed, may be one of the best preventers of their use.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/20/director-vegan-food-giant-beyond-meat-arrested-biting-flesh/
First, there was every good reason to think the use of the bomb would bring the war to an immediate end and save many lives, mostly of US Serviceman but probably Japanese too.
It was considered necessary to demonstrate that this thing actually worked and just how devastating it could be.
I don't think either consideration applied in the other cases mentioned above.
The only possible use of nukes I can see is a token one on Snake Island. But World response would be massive - starting with non-military options such as immediate cancellation of every Russian visa with immediate repatriation; immediate freezing of EVERY Russian held bank account..... Ultimatum given to Russia to immediately stand down all forces in Ukraine - and then give them 48 hours to start withdrawing or face direct attack by Nato forces. Meanwhile Ukraine told to observe immediate ceasefire.... Russia already knows this which is why even they would not be so stupid to start..
2 sides of 15 each side take 30 seconds to clear, so,
2 x 15 x 2 = 60 people a minute
60 x 50 minutes per hour (to allow for guard changes) x 23 hours a day (cleaning)
= 60 x 50 x 23 = 69,000 a day; call it 70,000 to make the sums easier
How long was it open for? Five days: 5 x 70,000 = 350,000
Four and a half days: 4.5 x 70,000 = 315,000
Plus Philip and Holly = 315,002.
https://www.reddit.com/r/ukraine/comments/xio8g5/we_will_conduct_a_nuclear_strike_not_on_ukraine/
“Ozerne village, Donetsk region. Ukraine.
This is horrible.”
https://twitter.com/grishchukroma/status/1572084236324327424?s=21&t=QcO9seL-PzoJKd7FeuMw6w
Morally, they have already crossed the Rubicon. So now it’s down to tactical advantage
All for Putin.
Alternatively, they just arrest him. Put him on a show trial. "It was all down to him..."
Old fashioned media kicking for Phil.
They would just do more of the same. Sanctions, arms to Kyiv, etc
That won’t horrify Putin. The more he can paint this war as existential - Russia v NATO - the likelier his survival
* He actually endured more than just having to prove he was leaving. He was lucky he had tickets as he has a place there and often would not have booked the flight home before arriving. However when shown the tickets the border official told him he would be exceeding his 90 day allowance. Thus followed a stand up, 'No I won't', Yes you will' and at which point he had to wait for everyone to go through before people got out their calculators. At this point they said they would let him off this time, which should be interpreted as 'Sorry we got it wrong'. Why can officials never admit they got something wrong?
One difference to King George VI and Winston Churchill is that, if you watch the footage from then, people just walked past en-bloc and had a look. What we do today would have been considered emotional.
For QEII each person had 4-5 seconds to pause, bow, curtesy or salute and that will have constricted flow.
As for annexing Luhansk and Donetsk, Russia doesn't even control all of that territory and does not have the ability to take it back. So Putin would then be saying Ukrainians hold and govern sovereign Russian territory and is powerless to repel the invaders. It would be humiliating. Plus the Russian population would not comply with conscription. It would end in Putin's removal from power.
The Royal Standard is never lowered (love that )
Princess Charlotte is the BOSS
Becks is fundamentally a very nice man
Phil Schofield is just a typical celebrity -nothing more nothing less
Operation Unicorn was the other plan when the Queen died
The US president gets placed behind Poland in funerals
The wearing of Military uniform is inversely proportional to the conflicts served in (by Royals)
It will never be longer due to the need for the funeral, and it was already open 23 hours a day, so the options you have are to remove the cleaning, speed up the guard changes (and lose some of the ceremony) or frogmarch people past it quickly.
Probably 350-400k is the maximum. So I'm not sure how DCMS ever expected a million to get through.
Maybe they thought people wouldn't pause?
Sane, meaning collectively willing to stage a military coup in order to see their families again.
Britain is still big dog
Since then we have had all the stuff since 2014, and more recently God knows how many people driven out or deported to Russia. Plus at present part of the area (prob not Crimea yet but that is already annexed, but yes in Donbas / Luhansk) is still in the possession of Ukraine.
There will be no assistance with energy bills this winter. This was confidently predicted by the insiders in the media.
Are you one of those fascists who question the media?
I am guessing one of the thoughts behind making it a ticketless queue that would stretch for many many hours was that it would put off chancers and idiots (and those who had spilled out of the pubs / clubs probably sobered up after 14hrs waiting in the cold).
Not quite as annoying as the US border guard.
But you know what I mean - no "wackiness". Which despite the control of the long long wait still does surprise me (in a good way).
If you replaced the two lines we saw with two groups packed together, 15 deep on each side, with no space to breathe, then you could get a lot more people through.
FWIW they seemed to ask the same questions to everyone in the queue.
The Telegraph has at least one long article doing a top trumps between a number of state funerals.
I'm a little bemused at the 4 day limit. HMXQ is in a lead-lined coffin so it could perhaps be extended - even if they didn't go perma-embalmo like Lenin (who got 100k in 6 weeks!).
They *could* do it like Kilroy-Silk, and do the embalming whilst the subject is still alive.
The Russians are scrupulously not being invaded. Ukraine has fought this war with one hand tied behind its back, using NATO hand-me-downs. Using nukes won't make Russia a winner. The only thing under threat is Putin's place in the pantheon of Russian greats.
There is no justifiable need to use nukes. It would mean anyone complicit in that decision would be hounded to the ends of the earth as war criminals. And that to end of their lives.
It would be a bigger moment than 9/11.