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Read the wording carefully on US Senate bets – politicalbetting.com

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  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799
    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    I can see all sorts of benefits of believing in God and heaven. It's no coincidence that Ukraine, Europe's most religious country, is the one which sees a future worth fighting for.
    But you can't just choose to believe something for which no evidence is presented and which seems completely implausible.
    I'd love religion to be true. I'd love the sense of community, there being someone to thank for all that is good in the world. But wanting something to be true doesn't make it any more believable. I'd like to believe that humans are perfectible and I don't believe that either.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,924
    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
  • RichardrRichardr Posts: 95

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    ohnotnow said:

    Just reading some voxpop-esque stuff on the BBC. My heart is bleeding...

    Louise and her husband have been saving to move home in Brighton since 2020, but they're having a major rethink.

    "We've had to substantially reconsider the amount of money we can borrow, says Louise.

    They'd been hoping to move to a bigger house so they could start a family.

    But now they can only afford smaller houses, Louise says it's "making us wonder whether we should bother moving at all".

    "Our options are either to stay put where we are or move to something about £200,000 cheaper than we had hoped."
    Maybe, but look at the underlying message there - couple who want to start a family are now unlikely to do so because they can't afford to move into their desired house.

    @Leon is right, the nation needs to have a rethink on how we approach old age care provision. The current mandate the NHS has to extend life at any cost is going to bankrupt the nation. Providing expensive care for a 90 year old so they can live for 6 more months results in higher taxes and lower income for working age people and less availability of housing which pushes up housing costs.

    You may dismiss these people but we need families and we need policies to help couples become families. Not just laugh at their misfortune.
    The average age at which most people own a property is 39 not 69.

    We don't need to kill off the likes of Mr and Mrs BigG as Leon was suggesting earlier.

    We also need tighter control of immigration
    We've "regained control", what are your Party doing about it aside from talking tough and using Rwanda while allowing hundreds of thousands into the country.

    Personally I have no problem with inward migration. I think we need to concentrate on the infrastructure and homes to meet the demands of our new citizens.
    And that's increasingly the mood of the nation. Here's an interesting graph;



    https://twitter.com/BNHWalker/status/1555118652768354306

    The really interesting thing to me is that the downtrend in support for "cut immigration a lot" started in 2013ish, and there's not much of a break of trend since- including in 2016.
    The trouble with these simplistic polls on immigration is that they fail to distinguish between the types. In particular we have or had:

    1 - what I would call "real" immigration, which is people coming permanently to the country. This is based on the points based system, and per recent government statements has risen in the past few years, is intended to fill some of the higher paid jobs (hence the points), and will include permanent residence for families, so hence entitlement to benefits, pensions, etc. in time.

    2 - the boat people style "unofficial" immigrants, whether valid asylum seekers or not. This is a relatively miniscule number, but the category the current government uses in its propaganda.

    3 - the short term job seekers - similar to what we used to call gap year when we did it as students to the likes of Australia. These are actually the most beneficial economically, as they do the seasonal and low paid jobs, pay taxes whilst doing them, but leave the country in time and aren't due benefits and pensions in years to come. This category was mainly EU people, and as such has largely been closed down by this government.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,292
    Cookie said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    I can see all sorts of benefits of believing in God and heaven. It's no coincidence that Ukraine, Europe's most religious country, is the one which sees a future worth fighting for.
    But you can't just choose to believe something for which no evidence is presented and which seems completely implausible.
    I'd love religion to be true. I'd love the sense of community, there being someone to thank for all that is good in the world. But wanting something to be true doesn't make it any more believable. I'd like to believe that humans are perfectible and I don't believe that either.
    Take more hallucinogens. Particularly ayahuasca

    We have lost the ability to access the divine (which exists). This is not irreparable
  • Remember how Raab got grief for being poolside when the Afghan fiasco played out?

    For Mr S hears that while Boris Johnson is currently on holiday, his next-door-neighbour Nadhim Zahawi is currently away from his desk too. Simon Clarke, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, is also believed to not presently be working in Whitehall either. Both men are believed to working wherever they may be, with Zahawi expected to be doing meetings remotely.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-and-Zahawi-put-their-feet-up-as-recession-looms

    Who is actually minding the shop right now?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    ...
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Agnostic w@nkers! We had this discussion last evening.
    Everyone should calm down about this whole “death” thing

    I SPOKE TO GOD JUST LAST DECEMBER. When I did ayahuasca in Menorca

    God is a bit of a c*nt but basically it’s all fine. When you die your soul is reabsorbed into the mighty river of consciousness which turns the turbines of reality which constantly powers the universe. So chill out
    I am cool with shuffling off the perch.

    What if this "life" is in actual fact heaven or hell?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    Once Kherson goes, I suspect we'll see the Russian position collapse like a pack of cards.
    Kherson does give every impression of being the cork in the bottle. Keep the HIMARS coming!
    My understanding is it's on the west bank of the Dnieper. If it is retaken then admittedly that's rather embarrassing for Russia and puts paid to their chances of an advance on Odessa, but would it actually compromise their position in the Donetsk or Luhansk areas or threaten their control of the Sea of Azov?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Jonathan said:

    Tuned into PB for a little light relief. 😳

    Having to deal with the idea that my consciousness might one day be merged for all eternity with Liz Truss,

    You're a Buddhist?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Somewhat impolitic, but I had to LOL.

    South Korea's President didn’t meet Nancy Pelosi because he didn't want to interrupt his vacation, his office says
    https://twitter.com/business/status/1555129418753916929

    Since when did Dominic Raab become President of South Korea?
    Since he had a religious experience and discovered his Seoul.
    Sadly, that would be 소울 .
    The capital is 서울 .

    Koreans are if anything keener on puns than are you, but that one's a bit iffy.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,388
    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Somewhat impolitic, but I had to LOL.

    South Korea's President didn’t meet Nancy Pelosi because he didn't want to interrupt his vacation, his office says
    https://twitter.com/business/status/1555129418753916929

    Since when did Dominic Raab become President of South Korea?
    Since he had a religious experience and discovered his Seoul.
    Sadly, that would be 소울 .
    The capital is 서울 .

    Koreans are if anything keener on puns than are you, but that one's a bit iffy.
    I need further instruction, clearly. Should I go out there and get it in Pusan?
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,861
    edited August 2022

    ...

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Agnostic w@nkers! We had this discussion last evening.
    Everyone should calm down about this whole “death” thing

    I SPOKE TO GOD JUST LAST DECEMBER. When I did ayahuasca in Menorca

    God is a bit of a c*nt but basically it’s all fine. When you die your soul is reabsorbed into the mighty river of consciousness which turns the turbines of reality which constantly powers the universe. So chill out
    I am cool with shuffling off the perch.

    What if this "life" is in actual fact heaven or hell?
    I thought you were going to quote a poem. This one.

    What is this life if, full of care,
    We have no time to stand and stare?-

    No time to stand beneath the boughs
    And stare as long as sheep or cows:

    No time to see, when woods we pass,
    Where squirrels hide their nuts in grass:

    No time to see, in broad daylight,
    Streams full of stars, like skies at night:

    No time to turn at Beauty’s glance,
    And watch her feet, how they can dance:

    No time to wait till her mouth can
    Enrich that smile her eyes began?

    A poor life this if, full of care,
    We have no time to stand and stare.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,135
    maaarsh said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Can I second those PB-ers who are asking: where the heck do I put cash to hedge against inflation? Somewhere reasonably liquid but safe from a crash?

    I'd stick with Cash because it IS safe from a Crash - assuming you have it in very low Credit Risk places.

    Other assets, eg shares and property, can lose an outright chunk of their capital value. Cash is eroded, drip drip, by inflation but £1m remains £1m and you get the benefit of an income boost as interest rates rise. Eg if rates double from 1.5 to 3, so does your income.

    Hey, had a question for you - what do you make of Richmond as a place to live?
    The current real interest rate is -8% and as per this latest forecast it's going to continue to get lower for quite a while, so the idea of an 'income boost' for holding cash is a fairytale.
    If you have £1m cash and with rates shooting up you get (say) 4% on it instead of 2% the extra £20k per annum is not a fairytale. You can spend it on real things or save it. You have your (devalued by inflation but principal is safe) £1m plus your "income boost" (yes!) of £20k. With prices on the rise every £1 goes less far - however this applies wherever you put your money. Into shares or property for example, they might go up (which cash doesn't) to protect you a bit from inflation BUT they also might crash, eg you put your £1m into shares or property and they slide by 10% your capital reduces by £100k. So, all told, my view is that Cash still has plenty going for it in these current circumstances. I wouldn't be rushing to invest it in other things. But DYOR and YO thinking of course.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    Remember how Raab got grief for being poolside when the Afghan fiasco played out?

    For Mr S hears that while Boris Johnson is currently on holiday, his next-door-neighbour Nadhim Zahawi is currently away from his desk too. Simon Clarke, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, is also believed to not presently be working in Whitehall either. Both men are believed to working wherever they may be, with Zahawi expected to be doing meetings remotely.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-and-Zahawi-put-their-feet-up-as-recession-looms

    Who is actually minding the shop right now?

    Nadine.

    And that lady who flips the middle finger at protesters.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Remember how Raab got grief for being poolside when the Afghan fiasco played out?

    For Mr S hears that while Boris Johnson is currently on holiday, his next-door-neighbour Nadhim Zahawi is currently away from his desk too. Simon Clarke, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, is also believed to not presently be working in Whitehall either. Both men are believed to working wherever they may be, with Zahawi expected to be doing meetings remotely.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-and-Zahawi-put-their-feet-up-as-recession-looms

    Who is actually minding the shop right now?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nze8B39OB0k
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Somewhat impolitic, but I had to LOL.

    South Korea's President didn’t meet Nancy Pelosi because he didn't want to interrupt his vacation, his office says
    https://twitter.com/business/status/1555129418753916929

    Since when did Dominic Raab become President of South Korea?
    Since he had a religious experience and discovered his Seoul.
    Sadly, that would be 소울 .
    The capital is 서울 .

    Koreans are if anything keener on puns than are you, but that one's a bit iffy.
    I need further instruction, clearly. Should I go out there and get it in Pusan?
    The alternative route would be online.

    Up to you. Let us know which option you have Choson.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    Need some advice from the PB brains trust.

    Need to make a big personal career decision. Have the opportunity to walk away from my current organisation in September with about 6 months pay. Alternatively can stay, take on a new role for 20-30% pay rise.

    Nice problem to have. What should I do? Have been at same place for 7 years, so fancy change. But will have nothing in place if I do leap.

    Current economy says ‘stay you fool’, but am worried about the greater question about living once and doing something else. I am that kind of age. If not now, I might miss the boat.

    Have some flexibility, eldest off to uni in Sep and some savings. But no idea what to do, no big draw.

    What does the hive mind advise?

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    Careful. Spouting the idea that there should be some settlement between Russia and Ukraine that involves anything other than complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine/Crimea is tantamount to wanting to give Putin a blowjob.

    Our armchair generals will not countenance anything which in any way diverges from their idealised view of what they think should happen.

    We can of course all want something but our PB AGs conflate that with what they think should and could happen if only we wish strongly for it to be so. "It's complicated" doesn't enter into their considerations.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
  • Remember how Raab got grief for being poolside when the Afghan fiasco played out?

    For Mr S hears that while Boris Johnson is currently on holiday, his next-door-neighbour Nadhim Zahawi is currently away from his desk too. Simon Clarke, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, is also believed to not presently be working in Whitehall either. Both men are believed to working wherever they may be, with Zahawi expected to be doing meetings remotely.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-and-Zahawi-put-their-feet-up-as-recession-looms

    Who is actually minding the shop right now?

    At least we know where the Foreign Secretary will be from one day to the next.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,668
    edited August 2022
    148grss said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to get real about demented old people. Someone with severe Alzheimer's in their 80s and 90s should be given a huge whack of numbing morphine to imbibe, or not, and at that point the state has paid its debt, and now they have to take their chances

    Instead, at vast expense to everyone - emotionally as well as financially - we keep them alive for years. Which is lovely and humane and kind, but is it? Is it even humane - to them? Or do we do it to make ourselves feel better for no good reason?

    I would come at this from a different pov; I think it should be acceptable for people who wish to take the dignitas option, as long as they make that decision without pressure and it is about their autonomy over their quality of life. If you have a power of attorney who has a document outlining a position written before a stroke or steep decline that says "if I ever get to x state, let me go in peace" I have no issue with that.

    Your position, again, is just a hair away from saying all useless eaters should be terminated.
    There's a distinction between 'terminated' and 'not spend the country's entire wealth keeping alive'.

    We do of course have a definition of exactly what we as a country are prepared to spend ('QALYs' etc) but as the population ratio changes we might have accept that the amount spent on each individual might have to fall relative to GDP.

    No government could ever admit to it directly though, even if that's what they are doing.

    It might not even result in worse care as technology and medicine improve.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war. There are several out comes. Of course the "grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion" - for example what the allies did in Afghan/Iraq, and well done them. But it is not a given that it will happen, no matter how much you wish for it to be so. You don't get extra points, or a free pass to heaven now that we're talking about it, by wanting world peace and everyone to get along.

    We are witnessing a bloody and awful conflict and no one quite knows how it will end. Wishing that the goodies win is all well and good but first off, Russia believes itself to be the goodies, and there is no guarantee that the goodies do win.

    It's literally virtue signalling.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Jonathan said:

    Need some advice from the PB brains trust.

    Need to make a big personal career decision. Have the opportunity to walk away from my current organisation in September with about 6 months pay. Alternatively can stay, take on a new role for 20-30% pay rise.

    Nice problem to have. What should I do? Have been at same place for 7 years, so fancy change. But will have nothing in place if I do leap.

    Current economy says ‘stay you fool’, but am worried about the greater question about living once and doing something else. I am that kind of age. If not now, I might miss the boat.

    Have some flexibility, eldest off to uni in Sep and some savings. But no idea what to do, no big draw.

    What does the hive mind advise?

    Take the payrise.

    The ride is going to be bumpy from here on in.
    6 months pay isn't going to last long in the current climate if you haven't got another job to go to.

  • Remember how Raab got grief for being poolside when the Afghan fiasco played out?

    For Mr S hears that while Boris Johnson is currently on holiday, his next-door-neighbour Nadhim Zahawi is currently away from his desk too. Simon Clarke, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, is also believed to not presently be working in Whitehall either. Both men are believed to working wherever they may be, with Zahawi expected to be doing meetings remotely.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-and-Zahawi-put-their-feet-up-as-recession-looms

    Who is actually minding the shop right now?

    Nadine.

    And that lady who flips the middle finger at protesters.
    Ah, Nadine...


  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    stjohn said:

    ...

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Agnostic w@nkers! We had this discussion last evening.
    Everyone should calm down about this whole “death” thing

    I SPOKE TO GOD JUST LAST DECEMBER. When I did ayahuasca in Menorca

    God is a bit of a c*nt but basically it’s all fine. When you die your soul is reabsorbed into the mighty river of consciousness which turns the turbines of reality which constantly powers the universe. So chill out
    I am cool with shuffling off the perch.

    What if this "life" is in actual fact heaven or hell?
    I thought you were going to quote a poem. This one.

    What is this life if, full of care,
    We have no time to stand and stare?-

    No time to stand beneath the boughs
    And stare as long as sheep or cows:

    No time to see, when woods we pass,
    Where squirrels hide their nuts in grass:

    No time to see, in broad daylight,
    Streams full of stars, like skies at night:

    No time to turn at Beauty’s glance,
    And watch her feet, how they can dance:

    No time to wait till her mouth can
    Enrich that smile her eyes began?

    A poor life this if, full of care,
    We have no time to stand and stare.
    I love WH Davies!
  • TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war. There are several out comes. Of course the "grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion" - for example what the allies did in Afghan/Iraq, and well done them. But it is not a given that it will happen, no matter how much you wish for it to be so. You don't get extra points, or a free pass to heaven now that we're talking about it, by wanting world peace and everyone to get along.

    We are witnessing a bloody and awful conflict and no one quite knows how it will end. Wishing that the goodies win is all well and good but first off, Russia believes itself to be the goodies, and there is no guarantee that the goodies do win.

    It's literally virtue signalling.
    Where would you have negotiated a settlement with Hitler?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,924
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Jonathan said:

    What does the hive mind advise?

    Stay put.

    I changed career a couple of times, and it's been great, but both times somebody offered me the new job before I even thought about leaving the old one.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Con Maj lengthening today. Anyone know why?

    NOM 1.83
    Con Maj 3.9
    Lab Maj 4.5
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,727
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Agnostic w@nkers! We had this discussion last evening.
    Everyone should calm down about this whole “death” thing

    I SPOKE TO GOD JUST LAST DECEMBER. When I did ayahuasca in Menorca

    God is a bit of a c*nt but basically it’s all fine. When you die your soul is reabsorbed into the mighty river of consciousness which turns the turbines of reality which constantly powers the universe. So chill out
    Speaking to God is the easy bit. It's getting Him to speak back that's the tricky part. Seems to generally require drugs or living in the middle east a couple of millenia or more ago.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 4,963

    Remember how Raab got grief for being poolside when the Afghan fiasco played out?

    For Mr S hears that while Boris Johnson is currently on holiday, his next-door-neighbour Nadhim Zahawi is currently away from his desk too. Simon Clarke, the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, is also believed to not presently be working in Whitehall either. Both men are believed to working wherever they may be, with Zahawi expected to be doing meetings remotely.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/Boris-and-Zahawi-put-their-feet-up-as-recession-looms

    Who is actually minding the shop right now?

    "minding the shop" is an archaic idea by now, surely?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Jonathan said:

    Need some advice from the PB brains trust.

    Need to make a big personal career decision. Have the opportunity to walk away from my current organisation in September with about 6 months pay. Alternatively can stay, take on a new role for 20-30% pay rise.

    Nice problem to have. What should I do? Have been at same place for 7 years, so fancy change. But will have nothing in place if I do leap.

    Current economy says ‘stay you fool’, but am worried about the greater question about living once and doing something else. I am that kind of age. If not now, I might miss the boat.

    Have some flexibility, eldest off to uni in Sep and some savings. But no idea what to do, no big draw.

    What does the hive mind advise?

    Not sure about that with the information but I would say that be careful because once it has entered your mind that you might or indeed even are going to leave your current job then your head will likely already have left and it is only a matter of time before your body follows. If you stay you will approach the current job as though it doesn't really matter and that will make for not a great experience and perhaps affect your performance also.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811

    Con Maj lengthening today. Anyone know why?

    NOM 1.83
    Con Maj 3.9
    Lab Maj 4.5

    Recession fears.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,664

    Con Maj lengthening today. Anyone know why?

    NOM 1.83
    Con Maj 3.9
    Lab Maj 4.5

    Recession looming?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Jonathan said:

    Need some advice from the PB brains trust.

    Need to make a big personal career decision. Have the opportunity to walk away from my current organisation in September with about 6 months pay. Alternatively can stay, take on a new role for 20-30% pay rise.

    Nice problem to have. What should I do? Have been at same place for 7 years, so fancy change. But will have nothing in place if I do leap.

    Current economy says ‘stay you fool’, but am worried about the greater question about living once and doing something else. I am that kind of age. If not now, I might miss the boat.

    Have some flexibility, eldest off to uni in Sep and some savings. But no idea what to do, no big draw.

    What does the hive mind advise?

    Depends on your industry, location, age and appetite for risk.

    There is still a labour shortage, so in theory jobs are easier to find.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Con Maj lengthening today. Anyone know why?

    NOM 1.83
    Con Maj 3.9
    Lab Maj 4.5

    5 quarters of recession
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited August 2022
    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    ydoethur said:

    Nigelb said:

    Somewhat impolitic, but I had to LOL.

    South Korea's President didn’t meet Nancy Pelosi because he didn't want to interrupt his vacation, his office says
    https://twitter.com/business/status/1555129418753916929

    Since when did Dominic Raab become President of South Korea?
    Since he had a religious experience and discovered his Seoul.
    Sadly, that would be 소울 .
    The capital is 서울 .

    Koreans are if anything keener on puns than are you, but that one's a bit iffy.
    I need further instruction, clearly. Should I go out there and get it in Pusan?
    브손 ... 부산

    Damn, I've become a Hangul pedant. And I'm barely at kindergarten level.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    How E&Wcentric of you. It's since 1560 in Scotland. More complex still in Ireland. In any case, divorce was always legal in England, if you had the money to make it so through a private Act of Parliament. Or were Head of the Church, vide Henry VIII obvs.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,635
    Jonathan said:

    Need some advice from the PB brains trust.

    Need to make a big personal career decision. Have the opportunity to walk away from my current organisation in September with about 6 months pay. Alternatively can stay, take on a new role for 20-30% pay rise.

    Nice problem to have. What should I do? Have been at same place for 7 years, so fancy change. But will have nothing in place if I do leap.

    Current economy says ‘stay you fool’, but am worried about the greater question about living once and doing something else. I am that kind of age. If not now, I might miss the boat.

    Have some flexibility, eldest off to uni in Sep and some savings. But no idea what to do, no big draw.

    What does the hive mind advise?

    Spend a few days exploring options outside your current organisation before you make a decision. You might be able to have your cake and eat it.
  • TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war. There are several out comes. Of course the "grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion" - for example what the allies did in Afghan/Iraq, and well done them. But it is not a given that it will happen, no matter how much you wish for it to be so. You don't get extra points, or a free pass to heaven now that we're talking about it, by wanting world peace and everyone to get along.

    We are witnessing a bloody and awful conflict and no one quite knows how it will end. Wishing that the goodies win is all well and good but first off, Russia believes itself to be the goodies, and there is no guarantee that the goodies do win.

    It's literally virtue signalling.
    Where would you have negotiated a settlement with Hitler?
    You do remember that a large chunk of the government, led by the Foreign Secretary, Lord Halifax, did favour a negotiated settlement with Hitler after Dunkirk?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war. There are several out comes. Of course the "grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion" - for example what the allies did in Afghan/Iraq, and well done them. But it is not a given that it will happen, no matter how much you wish for it to be so. You don't get extra points, or a free pass to heaven now that we're talking about it, by wanting world peace and everyone to get along.

    We are witnessing a bloody and awful conflict and no one quite knows how it will end. Wishing that the goodies win is all well and good but first off, Russia believes itself to be the goodies, and there is no guarantee that the goodies do win.

    It's literally virtue signalling.
    Where would you have negotiated a settlement with Hitler?
    We decided to fight Hitler to the death because we believed we faced an existential threat and had made a binding commitment to other nations to so so. Prior to that we saw everything from Krystallnacht onwards and did nothing. It took America a while before they believed there was sufficient self interest to join. At some point if Russia starts to March westwards we may well make the same calculation but we are not facing a similar proposition at the moment. We are witnessing a large power bully its neighbour. We are not powerless but for very good reasons we have decided not to become involved.

    Just as for example China decided not to get involved in the Afghan war.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    Exactly. So in this case 100% of people believe they won't get divorced and yet one in three get divorced. I would imagine that 100% of people don't think they will go to hell. And yet...
  • TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war. There are several out comes. Of course the "grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion" - for example what the allies did in Afghan/Iraq, and well done them. But it is not a given that it will happen, no matter how much you wish for it to be so. You don't get extra points, or a free pass to heaven now that we're talking about it, by wanting world peace and everyone to get along.

    We are witnessing a bloody and awful conflict and no one quite knows how it will end. Wishing that the goodies win is all well and good but first off, Russia believes itself to be the goodies, and there is no guarantee that the goodies do win.

    It's literally virtue signalling.
    Where would you have negotiated a settlement with Hitler?
    You do remember that a large chunk of the government, led by the Foreign Secretary, Lord Halifax, did favour a negotiated settlement with Hitler after Dunkirk?
    Yes. They rightly lost the argument. As must the Tankies wanting "peace" now
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited August 2022

    Jonathan said:

    Need some advice from the PB brains trust.

    Need to make a big personal career decision. Have the opportunity to walk away from my current organisation in September with about 6 months pay. Alternatively can stay, take on a new role for 20-30% pay rise.

    Nice problem to have. What should I do? Have been at same place for 7 years, so fancy change. But will have nothing in place if I do leap.

    Current economy says ‘stay you fool’, but am worried about the greater question about living once and doing something else. I am that kind of age. If not now, I might miss the boat.

    Have some flexibility, eldest off to uni in Sep and some savings. But no idea what to do, no big draw.

    What does the hive mind advise?

    Spend a few days exploring options outside your current organisation before you make a decision. You might be able to have your cake and eat it.
    Yes.

    A while ago, my wife was very lucky to get a new job offer on a Thursday and a redundancy notice from her existing job on the Friday.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Quick covidian post:

    When the eff are we to be rid of the ugly bossy signs demanding we avoid our fellow humans?

    They are still painted on pavements. They are still stuck to lampposts with indelible superglue. Even some pub loos still have them.

    Why have those who covered the public realm with this stuff not been charged with cleaning up their mess?
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Scott_xP said:

    Jonathan said:

    What does the hive mind advise?

    Stay put.

    I changed career a couple of times, and it's been great, but both times somebody offered me the new job before I even thought about leaving the old one.
    Don't forget the golden rule of getting a new job - it's ALWAYS easier to get a new job if you are currently in one.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war....
    ...the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'.... is almost literally equivalence.

    And it's probably untrue.
    Putin could declare his 'de-Nazification' achieved, pull out to the 2021 status quo, and likely get away with it.

    The alternate scenario is literally existential from Ukraine's POV.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war....
    ...the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'.... is almost literally equivalence.

    And it's probably untrue.
    Putin could declare his 'de-Nazification' achieved, pull out to the 2021 status quo, and likely get away with it.

    The alternate scenario is literally existential from Ukraine's POV.
    It is pointing out that Russia believes it is justified in invading. The equivalence is in motive (believing that they are justified in their actions) not that the actions themselves are equivalent.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Jonathan said:

    Need some advice from the PB brains trust.

    Need to make a big personal career decision. Have the opportunity to walk away from my current organisation in September with about 6 months pay. Alternatively can stay, take on a new role for 20-30% pay rise.

    Nice problem to have. What should I do? Have been at same place for 7 years, so fancy change. But will have nothing in place if I do leap.

    Current economy says ‘stay you fool’, but am worried about the greater question about living once and doing something else. I am that kind of age. If not now, I might miss the boat.

    Have some flexibility, eldest off to uni in Sep and some savings. But no idea what to do, no big draw.

    What does the hive mind advise?

    I would love to help, but far to difficult and not enough info. I would say stay, but then I am pretty conservative. I did jump but I only because I knew I was financially secure, but others might say take a risk. The opportunity might arise again in the future of course.

    Sorry just a lot of withering.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    Exactly. So in this case 100% of people believe they won't get divorced and yet one in three get divorced. I would imagine that 100% of people don't think they will go to hell. And yet...
    In Russia, that's nearer two in three.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 2,005
    MaxPB said:

    Con Maj lengthening today. Anyone know why?

    NOM 1.83
    Con Maj 3.9
    Lab Maj 4.5

    Recession fears.
    The only recent general election changing of power to Labour was in 1997 when the financial outlook was very good. Labour have not ever had to come up with a plan for when times are tough. No obvious signs they have any plans. Not much of a choice really - like 2019 all over again.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,924
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    How E&Wcentric of you. It's since 1560 in Scotland. More complex still in Ireland. In any case, divorce was always legal in England, if you had the money to make it so through a private Act of Parliament. Or were Head of the Church, vide Henry VIII obvs.
    Divorce has only been legal in Ireland since 1996
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war. There are several out comes. Of course the "grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion" - for example what the allies did in Afghan/Iraq, and well done them. But it is not a given that it will happen, no matter how much you wish for it to be so. You don't get extra points, or a free pass to heaven now that we're talking about it, by wanting world peace and everyone to get along.

    We are witnessing a bloody and awful conflict and no one quite knows how it will end. Wishing that the goodies win is all well and good but first off, Russia believes itself to be the goodies, and there is no guarantee that the goodies do win.

    It's literally virtue signalling.
    Where would you have negotiated a settlement with Hitler?
    You do remember that a large chunk of the government, led by the Foreign Secretary, Lord Halifax, did favour a negotiated settlement with Hitler after Dunkirk?
    Yes. They rightly lost the argument. As must the Tankies wanting "peace" now
    You are very noble to condemn likely thousands of Ukrainians to death instead of negotiating.

    Now, if Ukraine wants to continue to fight because they believe that it is justified given that their country has been invaded that is of course wholly admirable - I daresay you and I would feel and do the same if someone invaded the UK.

    But for outsiders to make that decision is more problematic; you are using their lives to try to achieve your ideals.

    Most likely there will be some kind of negotiated settlement remains my belief. In an ideal world it would involve complete Russian withdrawal but that is an ideal. I don't close my mind off to the possibility that it will be where they stand on the day of negotiation.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Agnostic w@nkers! We had this discussion last evening.
    Everyone should calm down about this whole “death” thing

    I SPOKE TO GOD JUST LAST DECEMBER. When I did ayahuasca in Menorca

    God is a bit of a c*nt but basically it’s all fine. When you die your soul is reabsorbed into the mighty river of consciousness which turns the turbines of reality which constantly powers the universe. So chill out
    Now we're you actually speaking to God or imagining it? How would you know?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,594
    Great to see the unions standing up for hard pressed members at Amazon. This is the kind of thing Unions should be doing.

  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,380
    edited August 2022
    Jonathan said:

    Need some advice from the PB brains trust.

    Need to make a big personal career decision. Have the opportunity to walk away from my current organisation in September with about 6 months pay. Alternatively can stay, take on a new role for 20-30% pay rise.

    Nice problem to have. What should I do? Have been at same place for 7 years, so fancy change. But will have nothing in place if I do leap.

    Current economy says ‘stay you fool’, but am worried about the greater question about living once and doing something else. I am that kind of age. If not now, I might miss the boat.

    Have some flexibility, eldest off to uni in Sep and some savings. But no idea what to do, no big draw.

    What does the hive mind advise?

    An alternative view. I was in a very similar position at a similar age (at a guess). I took the leap, relocated (for personal reasons) without a job and with enough to live on for a year (pay-off plus a bit of savings). I had a fabulous year in which I did just a bit of part-time work and not much else - apart from meeting my current wife, which was a huge bonus. I ended up with a much better job (pay and satisfaction) than the one I'd left, and in a much happier position. No regrets at all.

    It's a gamble, but for me it certainly paid off.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    Whoosh.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    How E&Wcentric of you. It's since 1560 in Scotland. More complex still in Ireland. In any case, divorce was always legal in England, if you had the money to make it so through a private Act of Parliament. Or were Head of the Church, vide Henry VIII obvs.
    Divorce has only been legal in Ireland since 1996
    So, to come back to the question - where are you headed to?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    That rather depends upon their happiness, surely?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    How E&Wcentric of you. It's since 1560 in Scotland. More complex still in Ireland. In any case, divorce was always legal in England, if you had the money to make it so through a private Act of Parliament. Or were Head of the Church, vide Henry VIII obvs.
    Divorce has only been legal in Ireland since 1996
    On the contrary, it's been legal in the Six Counties since Partition, but I forget the details - there are some complications.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,635
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/08/04/liz-truss-campaign-claims-rishi-sunak-backers-advanced-talks/

    Liz Truss campaign claims Rishi Sunak backers are in advanced talks to switch sides
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    This thread has been volunteered for a visit from Dignitas.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    How E&Wcentric of you. It's since 1560 in Scotland. More complex still in Ireland. In any case, divorce was always legal in England, if you had the money to make it so through a private Act of Parliament. Or were Head of the Church, vide Henry VIII obvs.
    Divorce has only been legal in Ireland since 1996
    On the contrary, it's been legal in the Six Counties since Partition, but I forget the details - there are some complications.
    Isn't he talking about Ireland, the country?
  • TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war. There are several out comes. Of course the "grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion" - for example what the allies did in Afghan/Iraq, and well done them. But it is not a given that it will happen, no matter how much you wish for it to be so. You don't get extra points, or a free pass to heaven now that we're talking about it, by wanting world peace and everyone to get along.

    We are witnessing a bloody and awful conflict and no one quite knows how it will end. Wishing that the goodies win is all well and good but first off, Russia believes itself to be the goodies, and there is no guarantee that the goodies do win.

    It's literally virtue signalling.
    Where would you have negotiated a settlement with Hitler?
    You do remember that a large chunk of the government, led by the Foreign Secretary, Lord Halifax, did favour a negotiated settlement with Hitler after Dunkirk?
    Yes. They rightly lost the argument. As must the Tankies wanting "peace" now
    Surely everyone wants peace. The question is how, and on what terms?
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785
    On the subject of expensive end-of-life care, tonight's Tory leadership debate will be live on Sky at 8pm.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE

    All glorious 1.5hrs of it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Jonathan said:

    Need some advice from the PB brains trust.

    Need to make a big personal career decision. Have the opportunity to walk away from my current organisation in September with about 6 months pay. Alternatively can stay, take on a new role for 20-30% pay rise.

    Nice problem to have. What should I do? Have been at same place for 7 years, so fancy change. But will have nothing in place if I do leap.

    Current economy says ‘stay you fool’, but am worried about the greater question about living once and doing something else. I am that kind of age. If not now, I might miss the boat.

    Have some flexibility, eldest off to uni in Sep and some savings. But no idea what to do, no big draw.

    What does the hive mind advise?


    How does current economy say stay?

    There are labour shortages everywhere. Workers and prospective workers have never been in such a strong bargaining position. It’s almost as if Leon’s predictions of millions of dead Brits have come to pass and there’s no-one left to do the jobs, any more.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    How E&Wcentric of you. It's since 1560 in Scotland. More complex still in Ireland. In any case, divorce was always legal in England, if you had the money to make it so through a private Act of Parliament. Or were Head of the Church, vide Henry VIII obvs.
    Divorce has only been legal in Ireland since 1996
    On the contrary, it's been legal in the Six Counties since Partition, but I forget the details - there are some complications.
    Isn't he talking about Ireland, the country?
    So? The Six Counties are part of the historical Ireland, certainly in a discussion ranging as far back as the 1850s.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Carnyx said:

    This thread has been volunteered for a visit from Dignitas.

    Fake news
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    Since the Peace of Westphalia we've had the concept of internationally recognised borders to work out where the reasonable demarcation line between these two positions is. Hint: it's not Russia's.

    Russia is trying to upend the entire basis of how we've tried to limit war for centuries, and take us back to an even more warlike age, where going to war to increase your territory was much more normal than it is today. That's why we need to stop them.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154
    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    And our own royal family has always been able to find ways, eh?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    NEW THERAD
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    edited August 2022
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war....
    ...the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'.... is almost literally equivalence.

    And it's probably untrue.
    Putin could declare his 'de-Nazification' achieved, pull out to the 2021 status quo, and likely get away with it.

    The alternate scenario is literally existential from Ukraine's POV.
    It is pointing out that Russia believes it is justified in invading. The equivalence is in motive (believing that they are justified in their actions) not that the actions themselves are equivalent.
    That's a meaningless truism, though.
    Which country initiating a way of aggression didn't believe it was justified ?

    The difference is that Putin controls political reality in Russia.
    Should he declare the special military occupation a success (as I outlined above), that would become the new reality for Russians.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154
    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    If I had done the things you'd done, I'd be a lot less worried by nothingness than the eternal fires of hell.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,358
    TOPPING said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    Careful. Spouting the idea that there should be some settlement between Russia and Ukraine that involves anything other than complete Russian withdrawal from Ukraine/Crimea is tantamount to wanting to give Putin a blowjob.

    Essentially it is.

    The argument is Russia wants to annex a lot of Ukraine. The Ukrainian wish to retain that territory.

    The adult thing to do is to pressurise the Ukrainians into giving Russia 50% of what it is seeking.

    I would not accept that, and you would not accept that, in Ukrainian shoes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    edited August 2022
    AlistairM said:

    MaxPB said:

    Con Maj lengthening today. Anyone know why?

    NOM 1.83
    Con Maj 3.9
    Lab Maj 4.5

    Recession fears.
    The only recent general election changing of power to Labour was in 1997 when the financial outlook was very good. Labour have not ever had to come up with a plan for when times are tough. No obvious signs they have any plans. Not much of a choice really - like 2019 all over again.
    It may be largely unfair, but that's the incumbency effect. Having said that I tend to disagree that the Conservatives are victims of circumstance.

    The post Covid economic shock has come later than I thought it would, accelerated by Russia, and it looks like being even worse than anticipated. I have been banging on for two years that Sunak's BBL scheme was inflationary and this in turn would lead to higher inflation and interest rates. Combine that with the effects of Brexit and the cocktail is pretty unpleasant. I stated, much to @Philip_Thompson 's contempt that inflation could lead to a wage-price spiral, but I was laughed off the board. I hadn't even dreamed of Russia invading Ukraine.

    The Conservatives have given themselves a little more time by jettisonning the FTPA, but I don't see Jan 2025 as long enough to pull things round, although I might be wrong.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    I think that's very generous to the godly. I know plenty of couples whose marriage lasted until death did them part. I can't say I've ever empirically observed anyone going to heaven.

    Also, it can make a lot of sense to marry even if you expect to divorce. Generally the partner in the marriage with less wealth or income, and more care responsibilities, is much better protected if they are married than not. So I wouldn't be sure that 100% of people getting married expect it to last a lifetime.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,924
    edited August 2022
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    How E&Wcentric of you. It's since 1560 in Scotland. More complex still in Ireland. In any case, divorce was always legal in England, if you had the money to make it so through a private Act of Parliament. Or were Head of the Church, vide Henry VIII obvs.
    Divorce has only been legal in Ireland since 1996
    On the contrary, it's been legal in the Six Counties since Partition, but I forget the details - there are some complications.
    So what, divorce was illegal in the Roman Catholic Republic of Ireland until 1996.

    Abortion and homosexuality were also illegal for much longer in the Republic than the UK
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    edited August 2022
    ohnotnow said:

    On the subject of expensive end-of-life care, tonight's Tory leadership debate will be live on Sky at 8pm.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9Auq9mYxFEE

    All glorious 1.5hrs of it.

    The last half hour of tonight's leadership debate clashes with The Undeclared War — a drama series about Russian cyberwarfare against this country. It seems timely in a week when we have seen alleged Russian trolls on pb, and the National Cyber Security Centre NCSC/GCHQ had the Conservative ballot procedure changed to make it harder to rig.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,154
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Indeed, if you truly believe in God you have no great fear of death but hope for eternal life (albeit there is the downside of hell too if you were really bad until you truly repent)
    According to the Bible, only 144,000 people will ascend to the Kingdom of Heaven, 12,000 from each tribe of Israel.

    You have to be pretty amazingly sin free to be a member of such a small group.

    Are you?
  • TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war. There are several out comes. Of course the "grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion" - for example what the allies did in Afghan/Iraq, and well done them. But it is not a given that it will happen, no matter how much you wish for it to be so. You don't get extra points, or a free pass to heaven now that we're talking about it, by wanting world peace and everyone to get along.

    We are witnessing a bloody and awful conflict and no one quite knows how it will end. Wishing that the goodies win is all well and good but first off, Russia believes itself to be the goodies, and there is no guarantee that the goodies do win.

    It's literally virtue signalling.
    Where would you have negotiated a settlement with Hitler?
    You do remember that a large chunk of the government, led by the Foreign Secretary, Lord Halifax, did favour a negotiated settlement with Hitler after Dunkirk?
    Yes. They rightly lost the argument. As must the Tankies wanting "peace" now
    You are very noble to condemn likely thousands of Ukrainians to death instead of negotiating.

    Now, if Ukraine wants to continue to fight because they believe that it is justified given that their country has been invaded that is of course wholly admirable - I daresay you and I would feel and do the same if someone invaded the UK.

    But for outsiders to make that decision is more problematic; you are using their lives to try to achieve your ideals.

    Most likely there will be some kind of negotiated settlement remains my belief. In an ideal world it would involve complete Russian withdrawal but that is an ideal. I don't close my mind off to the possibility that it will be where they stand on the day of negotiation.
    I'm supporting what the vast majority of Ukrainians want, not making decisions for them FFS!

    Anyone who favours "negotiated settlement" also favours submitting vast tracts of Ukraine to torture, rape and slavery. And to Putin returning to unfinished business later

    We MUST provide Ukraine with everything we can to help them fight this evil while they still have the strength and the will
  • RIP Tories. No chance winning with a recession
  • New thread.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,635

    RIP Tories. No chance winning with a recession

    John Major says hello.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    How E&Wcentric of you. It's since 1560 in Scotland. More complex still in Ireland. In any case, divorce was always legal in England, if you had the money to make it so through a private Act of Parliament. Or were Head of the Church, vide Henry VIII obvs.
    Divorce has only been legal in Ireland since 1996
    On the contrary, it's been legal in the Six Counties since Partition, but I forget the details - there are some complications.
    So what, divorce was illegal in the Roman Catholic Republic of Ireland until 1996.

    Abortion and homosexuality were also illegal for much longer in the Republic than the UK
    So? The latter are not relevant to a discussion of divorce in the UK over a historical timescale.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,924
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Indeed, if you truly believe in God you have no great fear of death but hope for eternal life (albeit there is the downside of hell too if you were really bad until you truly repent)
    According to the Bible, only 144,000 people will ascend to the Kingdom of Heaven, 12,000 from each tribe of Israel.

    You have to be pretty amazingly sin free to be a member of such a small group.

    Are you?
    That is the Jewish Bible, before the Christian one was written
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,653
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Indeed, if you truly believe in God you have no great fear of death but hope for eternal life (albeit there is the downside of hell too if you were really bad until you truly repent)
    According to the Bible, only 144,000 people will ascend to the Kingdom of Heaven, 12,000 from each tribe of Israel.

    You have to be pretty amazingly sin free to be a member of such a small group.

    Are you?
    Isn't that just the Rapture? The rest of us have to put up with the apocalypse on earth before our pearly gates.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    edited August 2022
    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    I agree, that would be the grown up thing to do. However, that's not the situation we find ourselves in. And I am not actually drawing any sort of moral equivalence; I just don't think 'just deserts' is a particularly helpful concept in finding a way through this conflict, or any conflict.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,924
    edited August 2022
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    TOPPING said:

    I think believing in god because you want to live forever in heaven is a bit like 100% of people who get married thinking they won't get divorced when the current divorce rate is 33%.

    So for 67% they are correct even now
    They are but it's not 100% now, matey, is it?
    It never has been 100% since divorce was legalised in 1857
    How E&Wcentric of you. It's since 1560 in Scotland. More complex still in Ireland. In any case, divorce was always legal in England, if you had the money to make it so through a private Act of Parliament. Or were Head of the Church, vide Henry VIII obvs.
    Divorce has only been legal in Ireland since 1996
    On the contrary, it's been legal in the Six Counties since Partition, but I forget the details - there are some complications.
    So what, divorce was illegal in the Roman Catholic Republic of Ireland until 1996.

    Abortion and homosexuality were also illegal for much longer in the Republic than the UK
    So? The latter are not relevant to a discussion of divorce in the UK over a historical timescale.
    They very much are. Divorce was banned by the Irish constitution as far back as 1937.

    For most of the 20th century the Roman Catholic Church effectively ran the Republic of Ireland and it took a much more socially conservative line for a much longer period than the UK as a result

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,653
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Indeed, if you truly believe in God you have no great fear of death but hope for eternal life (albeit there is the downside of hell too if you were really bad until you truly repent)
    According to the Bible, only 144,000 people will ascend to the Kingdom of Heaven, 12,000 from each tribe of Israel.

    You have to be pretty amazingly sin free to be a member of such a small group.

    Are you?
    That is the Jewish Bible, before the Christian one was written
    No, it is from the Revelation of John.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/144,000
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    I agree, that would be the grown up thing to do. However, that's not the situation we find ourselves in. And I am not actually drawing any sort of moral equivalence; I just don't think 'just deserts' is a particularly helpful concept in finding a way through this conflict, or any conflict.
    So you think that Putin might settle for Schleswig-Holstein, Cork & Wales as territorial gains?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957

    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war. There are several out comes. Of course the "grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion" - for example what the allies did in Afghan/Iraq, and well done them. But it is not a given that it will happen, no matter how much you wish for it to be so. You don't get extra points, or a free pass to heaven now that we're talking about it, by wanting world peace and everyone to get along.

    We are witnessing a bloody and awful conflict and no one quite knows how it will end. Wishing that the goodies win is all well and good but first off, Russia believes itself to be the goodies, and there is no guarantee that the goodies do win.

    It's literally virtue signalling.
    Where would you have negotiated a settlement with Hitler?
    You do remember that a large chunk of the government, led by the Foreign Secretary, Lord Halifax, did favour a negotiated settlement with Hitler after Dunkirk?
    Yes. They rightly lost the argument. As must the Tankies wanting "peace" now
    You are very noble to condemn likely thousands of Ukrainians to death instead of negotiating.

    Now, if Ukraine wants to continue to fight because they believe that it is justified given that their country has been invaded that is of course wholly admirable - I daresay you and I would feel and do the same if someone invaded the UK.

    But for outsiders to make that decision is more problematic; you are using their lives to try to achieve your ideals.

    Most likely there will be some kind of negotiated settlement remains my belief. In an ideal world it would involve complete Russian withdrawal but that is an ideal. I don't close my mind off to the possibility that it will be where they stand on the day of negotiation.
    I'm supporting what the vast majority of Ukrainians want, not making decisions for them FFS!

    Anyone who favours "negotiated settlement" also favours submitting vast tracts of Ukraine to torture, rape and slavery. And to Putin returning to unfinished business later

    We MUST provide Ukraine with everything we can to help them fight this evil while they still have the strength and the will
    And yet we are not doing so and don't look likely to do so.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,924
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Indeed, if you truly believe in God you have no great fear of death but hope for eternal life (albeit there is the downside of hell too if you were really bad until you truly repent)
    According to the Bible, only 144,000 people will ascend to the Kingdom of Heaven, 12,000 from each tribe of Israel.

    You have to be pretty amazingly sin free to be a member of such a small group.

    Are you?
    Isn't that just the Rapture? The rest of us have to put up with the apocalypse on earth before our pearly gates.
    The Rapture is part of Revelation and in the New Testament not the Old
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    ydoethur said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sean_F said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    Once Kherson goes, I suspect we'll see the Russian position collapse like a pack of cards.
    Kherson does give every impression of being the cork in the bottle. Keep the HIMARS coming!
    My understanding is it's on the west bank of the Dnieper. If it is retaken then admittedly that's rather embarrassing for Russia and puts paid to their chances of an advance on Odessa, but would it actually compromise their position in the Donetsk or Luhansk areas or threaten their control of the Sea of Azov?
    If Ukraine take Kherson back then they all but certainly take back control of Crimea's agricultural water supply (as itnis controlled by a lock a short distance up the Dnipro).

    Then, theoretically, beyond the Dnipro itself, there is no good defensive terrain between Kherson and Crimea.

    Now there is no way Ukraine could actually sweep across the plains but Russia has to act like they could
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war. There are several out comes. Of course the "grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion" - for example what the allies did in Afghan/Iraq, and well done them. But it is not a given that it will happen, no matter how much you wish for it to be so. You don't get extra points, or a free pass to heaven now that we're talking about it, by wanting world peace and everyone to get along.

    We are witnessing a bloody and awful conflict and no one quite knows how it will end. Wishing that the goodies win is all well and good but first off, Russia believes itself to be the goodies, and there is no guarantee that the goodies do win.

    It's literally virtue signalling.
    It's a choice, and all choices come with risk, but I think the best choice is to fight now, even at the cost of greater short-term suffering, because I believe the risk of worse consequences later, if we settle now, is much greater.

    I don't see why that calculation makes me an idealistic fool, while yours doesn't make you a naive idiot?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,653
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Indeed, if you truly believe in God you have no great fear of death but hope for eternal life (albeit there is the downside of hell too if you were really bad until you truly repent)
    According to the Bible, only 144,000 people will ascend to the Kingdom of Heaven, 12,000 from each tribe of Israel.

    You have to be pretty amazingly sin free to be a member of such a small group.

    Are you?
    Isn't that just the Rapture? The rest of us have to put up with the apocalypse on earth before our pearly gates.
    The Rapture is part of Revelation and in the New Testament not the Old
    Yes, that is where the number 144,000 comes from. Not the Jewish bible, but the Christian one, indeed Revelation is positively psychedelic.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    TOPPING said:

    TOPPING said:

    Nigelb said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    glw said:

    Leon said:

    If these BoE predictions pan out, and if they are mirrored across the West, then the pressure on Ukraine to sue for a bitter peace will be irresistible

    I see Marine Le Pen is arguing this in France already. She is not entirely stupid: she sees the political opportunity

    And it could get worse. Putin could shut off all gas and oil and see if we blink first. I suspect we would

    And when Ukraine has given up territory what you do propose we do the next time Putin decides to expand his "Russian Empire"?

    People arguing that Ukraine should cede territory are essentially saying "third time lucky" to Ukraine. No previous agreement has been upheld by Russia, why should anyone trust Russia now?

    If we want to end the war the best way is to arm Ukraine so that they can do so on their terms, not give in to Russia.

    I AM NOT SAYING ANY OF THAT

    Check my comments

    I am merely observing that with the awful economic prospectus the tacit pressure from the west, on Ukraine, to make a bad peace might be irresistible
    It won't be a bad peace, it will merely be a pause until Putin goes for the rest of Ukraine, or the territory of some other country. Putin must be defeated.
    This is a mantra rather than an argument. And the same things will be being said by the other side - 'we must win this war against the West, if they win Ukraine what next, this is an existential fight for Russia'. Yet we expect or hope for Putin to act rationally in the face of military losses and economic damage, and withdraw. Someone needs to start acting like the grown up in the room.
    The grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion.
    Your equivalence nonsense is just ... nonsense.
    It's not equivalence, Nigel, it's a dispassionate analysis of the war. There are several out comes. Of course the "grown up thing to do would be to abandon the invasion" - for example what the allies did in Afghan/Iraq, and well done them. But it is not a given that it will happen, no matter how much you wish for it to be so. You don't get extra points, or a free pass to heaven now that we're talking about it, by wanting world peace and everyone to get along.

    We are witnessing a bloody and awful conflict and no one quite knows how it will end. Wishing that the goodies win is all well and good but first off, Russia believes itself to be the goodies, and there is no guarantee that the goodies do win.

    It's literally virtue signalling.
    Where would you have negotiated a settlement with Hitler?
    You do remember that a large chunk of the government, led by the Foreign Secretary, Lord Halifax, did favour a negotiated settlement with Hitler after Dunkirk?
    Yes. They rightly lost the argument. As must the Tankies wanting "peace" now
    You are very noble to condemn likely thousands of Ukrainians to death instead of negotiating.

    Now, if Ukraine wants to continue to fight because they believe that it is justified given that their country has been invaded that is of course wholly admirable - I daresay you and I would feel and do the same if someone invaded the UK.

    But for outsiders to make that decision is more problematic; you are using their lives to try to achieve your ideals.

    Most likely there will be some kind of negotiated settlement remains my belief. In an ideal world it would involve complete Russian withdrawal but that is an ideal. I don't close my mind off to the possibility that it will be where they stand on the day of negotiation.
    It's the Ukrainian choice to fight. No-one is coercing them to fight. Zelensky was even offered safe passage out of the country at the start of the war, which would have brought the large-scale phase of the conflict to a swift conclusion.

    Our choice is whether to support the Ukrainians, or to abandon them.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    We also need to start believing in god and heaven again. Everyone is terrified of dying because they are like Phil Larkin in aubade. They think death is an eternity of nullity. Forever not existing. Get a grip you atheist wankers

    Indeed, if you truly believe in God you have no great fear of death but hope for eternal life (albeit there is the downside of hell too if you were really bad until you truly repent)
    Sitting on a cloud strumming a harp with a load of bible punchers for ever? No thanks. I think I'll take my chances with an eternity of nullity.
    As, probably, now the old oldest regular poster if I do peg out I'll find some means of posting here and tell you all about it!
    For myself I am inclined to go along with whoever said something about "you are not dead while you are still talked about"!
This discussion has been closed.