Bof E also forecasting 13% inflation in Q4. A figure which seems to climb with every prediction from anyone.
That is GRIM.
On the plus side, it has risen so fast so quickly there is every chance it will fall equally fast.
Unless of course wage inflation replaces commodity inflation.
There was an economist on R4 this morning indicating that inflation might not peak until Q1 next year now and might reach 15%. The BoE has let this get so out of control that they really should be getting their jotters. Other countries have had the supply shock but have not had as much inflation. Our monetary policy has been far too loose for far too long.
In part because of the BoE's response to you-know-what...
I wonder about Liz Truss, her history, her switching of parties and loyalties, her obvious opportunism etc. Has she actually any real political philosophy or does she go where it sees it opportune. She does not think through what she says, her history in the Liberal Democrats is evidence enough let alone the crazy financial philosophy she is perpetrating at the moment. She is not a Conservative, she is not a Liberal Democrat, most of her actions are wrong at the time, except for say the Iranian hostage releases, what actually is she? She is no Thatcher who to her credit was not a party changer, she was a Conservative. I think we are headed for a really dangerous economic, financial and international situation if she wins. Conservative Councillors and local party officials are concerned about her, but the membership is something else.
Those really are quite staggering predictions. Four weeks of an election campaign and everyone in government on holiday, and likely in different jobs by September. Not sure the full scale has been appreciated by many.
On a crude basis, Tesco own baked beans are up 30% over six months. £1 for a pack of 4 in January, £1.30 yesterday.
We can talk about headline figures, but the things I'm seeing at the lower end are considerably more alarming. That's where the worst effects will be. Most people on this board have at least some kind of cushion, even people like me without a permanent job (I can do supply teaching if I have to). For many, the money just won't be there to absorb these shocks.
This is what people like Martin Lewis / Jack Monroe have been (rightly) banging on about at length. Inflation for the bottom end of the income scale is currently much. much higher than the headline rate. Fuel, food & rent form a much larger portion of their outgoings and all of those have been going up by double digit inflation rates, with the very cheapest food options often going up the most of all.
If the situation doesn’t ease then either the government raises benefits before the winter or we’re going to have civil unrest: People need to eat.
This is where the non-payment campaign will be helpful. People won't be cut off until the weather warms up in the spring, and in the meantime they will be able to afford to eat. The government will likely have to find some billions to prevent the entire energy industry from collapsing due to non-payment, and ensure we can still pay to secure energy imports.
I don't know what then happens in the spring, but I reckon the non-payment campaign is probably net helpful to the government in providing a way through the winter for the poorest. It should see us through the winter without civil disorder.
Whether cutting the money supply going into a recession is at all clever is a question left for the new prime minister.
The 2008 interventions were never sterilised. That lead to asset price inflation that has now broken through into consumer price inflation.
Would this adjustment had been done before now. But it needs to be done. Your approach is redolent of the “extend and pretend” strategy of over leveraged borrowers
On a crude basis, Tesco own baked beans are up 30% over six months. £1 for a pack of 4 in January, £1.30 yesterday.
We can talk about headline figures, but the things I'm seeing at the lower end are considerably more alarming. That's where the worst effects will be. Most people on this board have at least some kind of cushion, even people like me without a permanent job (I can do supply teaching if I have to). For many, the money just won't be there to absorb these shocks.
This is what people like Martin Lewis / Jack Monroe have been (rightly) banging on about at length. Inflation for the bottom end of the income scale is currently much. much higher than the headline rate. Fuel, food & rent form a much larger portion of their outgoings and all of those have been going up by double digit inflation rates, with the very cheapest food options often going up the most of all.
If the situation doesn’t ease then either the government raises benefits before the winter or we’re going to have civil unrest: People need to eat.
This is where the non-payment campaign will be helpful. People won't be cut off until the weather warms up in the spring, and in the meantime they will be able to afford to eat. The government will likely have to find some billions to prevent the entire energy industry from collapsing due to non-payment, and ensure we can still pay to secure energy imports.
I don't know what then happens in the spring, but I reckon the non-payment campaign is probably net helpful to the government in providing a way through the winter for the poorest. It should see us through the winter without civil disorder.
Those really are quite staggering predictions. Four weeks of an election campaign and everyone in government on holiday, and likely in different jobs by September. Not sure the full scale has been appreciated by many.
Including the BoE, they are rather late in the day with this increase. It was 0.25% the prior month when the fed was hiking by 0.75%.
I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?
The Dems often suffer from lower turnout in the mid terms , they managed to come out though in 2020 as Trump was in the WH .
The abortion issue is though likely to help their turnout, and the January 6 hearings will have some bearing as the Dems will hope to force GOP candidates to go on record as to where they stand .
The mid terms seem to be less a record on Biden which is somewhat unusual and the polling shows his job approval isn’t make or break for their chances .
The Manchin Schumer deal would help if it got through Congress but a lot will depend on inflation and the overall state of the economy .
It’s pretty clear though that the SCOTUS decision was a gift to the Dems , even though there was a lot of outrage behind the scenes the Dems were celebrating as it puts the GOP in a difficult position and could prove crucial in the more competitive states.
It will help the Democrats, but it won't be decisive. Biden's low ratings, and the economic situation are bigger factors.
Biden's ratings has improved recently. If Manchin and Sinema can find common ground to get the current bill passed, then they might improve further.
And it's still possible that the US might shrug off inflation in a way we can't.
It won't shrug it off by all that much. US inflation is now at 9%.
It could come down much sooner, though. The US has advantages in being an oil and food producer rather than importer. And they have been slightly more aggressive with their base rate increases.
No one will escape global economic problems, but some will fare considerably worse than others.
I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?
There were c 470k votes in the Rep primary. Around 260k in the Dem. And about 920k in the abortion vote. Since only registered Party voters can vote in the Primaries in Kansas it suggests a pretty good Independent turnout. Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
I made a quick comparison of the swing between the 2020 Trump vote and the Yes vote and it looked like the swing was largest the more GOP a county was.
There's certainly a significant number of GOP voters who don't want a total ban on abortion.
Is the issue important enough for them to vote Democrat despite all the other reasons that mean they normally vote Republican?
Not sure, but if forced to guess I'd say not. At least, not yet.
I'd say it depends upon what the abortion choices are.
If its an outright ban more will switch to Dem than if its, for example, a restriction to 13 weeks.
It will be interesting to see if the anti-abortionists overreach and go for maximalist restrictions.
The Kansas vote was just to allow the legislature to legislate on abortion, oit wasn't even a vote on a specific abortion proposal.
Which is why I am slightly suspicious about trying to generalise from it.
The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.
Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.
Hence as I said the Tories should have kept Boris.
Instead they will end up with Truss, who is basically Boris without the charisma
Up to a point, Lord Copper.
In terms of charisma and political talent, Boris remains the outstanding figure of this batch of Conservatives. Unless his successor manages him very carefullly, he is going to oushine them as King over the water. And Truss, who is basically Norfolk's third best Boris Johnson tribute act, looks like she has most of his downsides with few of his skills.
I can see why Boris in a dress is attractive to some Conservatives, but electing her would be doubling down on the choice of 2019, which really looks like a mistake.
Because, ultimately, Boris had to go. Look what happened in the May elections; whoever was the not-Conservative candidate did well. His conduct was well below the standards the public expect from their leaders. On top of all the individual scandals, the fact that he has left his party choosing between Tweedlebankers and Tweedlebonkers shows what a terrible leader he has been.
Right now, the Conservatives don't seem to have any good moves, only differently bad ones. The same could well be true of the country, looking at our economic and European situations. And as in chess, that can be traced back to choices made, perhaps unwittingly, several moves ago.
But like it or not, there is still a need to choose the best move, even if it's not very good.
In the South and London Boris did not do so well in May but in the North and Midlands the Tory vote held up reasonably well.
Policy wise Truss is little different to Boris except a bit more Thatcherite economically with a more leftwing past.
Yes there was the issue of Boris' partygate fine etc but the candidate put up against Truss by Tory MPs, Sunak, was also fined.
There is a chance Truss not only gets a bounce but sustains it, more likely however I fear she leads the party to a bigger defeat and worse general election result than Boris would have got
With Boris, it would have been one scandal after another. Because, he simply does not believe that the law of the land applies to him.. That's why he had to go.
Though I still think the Tories may face a worse defeat under Truss in the end than they would have got under Boris, after her initial poll bounce subsides
If the Conservative Party don't put upholding the law of the land ahead of their narrow political interests, then not only do they deserve to lose next time but they don't deserve ever to win again.
The only thing Boris clearly did against the law of the land in office was attend some social gatherings after work for which he and Sunak were fined anyway
Blair by contrast went to war in Iraq based on lies about WMD and Labour kept him in office
We're just into the 'price negotiation' stage of a possible house purchase. Uncomfortable climate to be doing it in.
With the prospect of fairly rapid interest rate hikes, house price inflation will quite likely decouple from consumer inflation. Feel free to quote me.
Those really are quite staggering predictions. Four weeks of an election campaign and everyone in government on holiday, and likely in different jobs by September. Not sure the full scale has been appreciated by many.
I don't know why you are putting so much faith in them given how crap all their previous predictions have been.
Here’s some interesting and quite detailed analysis by a politics professor on the Sunak v Truss contest. TLDR: he concludes Sunak’s only chance is coming clean about the economic woes we face, presenting himself as the grown up and worrying people about Truss’s ability to cope:
Those really are quite staggering predictions. Four weeks of an election campaign and everyone in government on holiday, and likely in different jobs by September. Not sure the full scale has been appreciated by many.
Including the BoE, they are rather late in the day with this increase. It was 0.25% the prior month when the fed was hiking by 0.75%.
Well yes. Notable the pound rose half a cent on the dollar this morning in anticipation of the rate rise. It's lost all that on the recession predictions.
The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.
Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.
Hence as I said the Tories should have kept Boris.
Instead they will end up with Truss, who is basically Boris without the charisma
Up to a point, Lord Copper.
In terms of charisma and political talent, Boris remains the outstanding figure of this batch of Conservatives. Unless his successor manages him very carefullly, he is going to oushine them as King over the water. And Truss, who is basically Norfolk's third best Boris Johnson tribute act, looks like she has most of his downsides with few of his skills.
I can see why Boris in a dress is attractive to some Conservatives, but electing her would be doubling down on the choice of 2019, which really looks like a mistake.
Because, ultimately, Boris had to go. Look what happened in the May elections; whoever was the not-Conservative candidate did well. His conduct was well below the standards the public expect from their leaders. On top of all the individual scandals, the fact that he has left his party choosing between Tweedlebankers and Tweedlebonkers shows what a terrible leader he has been.
Right now, the Conservatives don't seem to have any good moves, only differently bad ones. The same could well be true of the country, looking at our economic and European situations. And as in chess, that can be traced back to choices made, perhaps unwittingly, several moves ago.
But like it or not, there is still a need to choose the best move, even if it's not very good.
In the South and London Boris did not do so well in May but in the North and Midlands the Tory vote held up reasonably well.
Policy wise Truss is little different to Boris except a bit more Thatcherite economically with a more leftwing past.
Yes there was the issue of Boris' partygate fine etc but the candidate put up against Truss by Tory MPs, Sunak, was also fined.
There is a chance Truss not only gets a bounce but sustains it, more likely however I fear she leads the party to a bigger defeat and worse general election result than Boris would have got
With Boris, it would have been one scandal after another. Because, he simply does not believe that the law of the land applies to him.. That's why he had to go.
Though I still think the Tories may face a worse defeat under Truss in the end than they would have got under Boris, after her initial poll bounce subsides
If the Conservative Party don't put upholding the law of the land ahead of their narrow political interests, then not only do they deserve to lose next time but they don't deserve ever to win again.
The only thing Boris clearly did against the law of the land in office was attend some social gatherings after work for which he and Sunak were fined anyway
Blair by contrast went to war in Iraq based on lies about WMD and Labour kept him in office
But they were only hundreds of thousands of brown people and a few soldiers losing their lives.
Those really are quite staggering predictions. Four weeks of an election campaign and everyone in government on holiday, and likely in different jobs by September. Not sure the full scale has been appreciated by many.
Including the BoE, they are rather late in the day with this increase. It was 0.25% the prior month when the fed was hiking by 0.75%.
Well yes. Notable the pound rose half a cent on the dollar this morning in anticipation of the rate rise. It's lost all that on the recession predictions.
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
We're just into the 'price negotiation' stage of a possible house purchase. Uncomfortable climate to be doing it in.
With the prospect of fairly rapid interest rate hikes, house price inflation will quite likely decouple from consumer inflation. Feel free to quote me.
Decouple which way though?
The London mid/high end market seems to be a creature unto itself. No mortgages, no chains, lots of cash sloshing around.
CoL crisis? Yes for many - bigtime - but will it "trickle UP"?
Here’s some interesting and quite detailed analysis by a politics professor on the Sunak v Truss contest. TLDR: he concludes Sunak’s only chance is coming clean about the economic woes we face, presenting himself as the grown up and worrying people about Truss’s ability to cope:
Bof E also forecasting 13% inflation in Q4. A figure which seems to climb with every prediction from anyone.
That is GRIM.
On the plus side, it has risen so fast so quickly there is every chance it will fall equally fast.
Unless of course wage inflation replaces commodity inflation.
There was an economist on R4 this morning indicating that inflation might not peak until Q1 next year now and might reach 15%. The BoE has let this get so out of control that they really should be getting their jotters. Other countries have had the supply shock but have not had as much inflation. Our monetary policy has been far too loose for far too long.
Other countries have not had Brexit either. France for one is limiting inflation by capping fuel price rises. I should expect in tonight's debate that Liz Truss will return to suspending the green levy and allowing BOGOF, and perhaps also proposals to cut VAT.
That just socialises the cost.
It might be the right answer (although it ducked the minority shareholders in EDF) but it’s not a cost free option
I've just had £20 on Rishi at 12.0. Dire economic circumstances necessitate a safe pair of hands in Number 10.
I'm hoping he might drift back into 8-1 or something as my last move in the market was to lay Truss to level off a bit and get back some green on the field.
I've just had £20 on Rishi at 12.0. Dire economic circumstances necessitate a safe pair of hands in Number 10.
I'm hoping he might drift back into 8-1 or something as my last move in the market was to lay Truss to level off a bit and get back some green on the field.
Forecast is built on the absolute nonsense assumption that current insane energy prices persist forever. The Bank's core projection is more negative than simply following the futures curve which itself doesn't price in the inevitable reversion to something vaguely approaching normal once the situation changes.
In reality there is going to be a big deflationary windfall for houses at some point from 23-25, and this forecast is going to be bang in line with the BoE track record - garbage.
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
As fucked as whoever wins in September? By 2024, there might be enough visible failure for a grownup conversation about what we do about this, rather than all the boosterism nonsense.
Meanwhile, Bozza looks like he may have done the political equivalent of shimmying down the drainpipe just before the husband enters the room. A fair chunk of the incoming pain is his responsibility, but you can be sure that his successor will be the one to cop the blame,
Can I second those PB-ers who are asking: where the heck do I put cash to hedge against inflation? Somewhere reasonably liquid but safe from a crash?
Shares. Particularly in oil and gas and energy companies.
Safe from a crash?
Spread across 20 or so different companies, yes, you'll never go wrong in anything other than the short term. The truth is, though, that anybody with liquid cash really does not have anything major to worry about.
Can I second those PB-ers who are asking: where the heck do I put cash to hedge against inflation? Somewhere reasonably liquid but safe from a crash?
Shares. Particularly in oil and gas and energy companies.
Safe from a crash?
Shares are priced in nominal terms, and given there is a big increase in the amount of nominal currency in circulation it's going to have to end up in equities eventually.
We're just into the 'price negotiation' stage of a possible house purchase. Uncomfortable climate to be doing it in.
With the prospect of fairly rapid interest rate hikes, house price inflation will quite likely decouple from consumer inflation. Feel free to quote me.
Decouple which way though?
The London mid/high end market seems to be a creature unto itself. No mortgages, no chains, lots of cash sloshing around.
CoL crisis? Yes for many - bigtime - but will it "trickle UP"?
Global inflation arguably makes London property MORE attractive. The ultimate bank vault, plus you - or your kids - can live in it
Too late to make any difference. But Rishi Sunak is actually right about this. Getting to grips with inflation needs be the government's priority, and it has to come ahead of tax cuts. https://twitter.com/RishiSunak/status/1555155069191987202
Still very much under the weather with covid but listening to the BOE governor he seems utterly powerless to mitigate the economic crisis now unfolding both here and across Europe, and it seems the country is becoming ungovernable by any political party for the forceable future and 2024 is definitely the election to lose
Forecast is built on the absolute nonsense assumption that current insane energy prices persist forever. The Bank's core projection is more negative than simply following the futures curve which itself doesn't price in the inevitable reversion to something vaguely approaching normal once the situation changes.
In reality there is going to be a big deflationary windfall for houses at some point from 23-25, and this forecast is going to be bang in line with the BoE track record - garbage.
Can you explain what you mean by "a big deflationary windfall for houses". Does that mean falling house prices due to higher interest rates?
On top of being asleep at the wheel for so long, now the MPC have completely undermined the primary short term mechanism for interest rates to control inflation but successfully weakening the £ with their forecast sitting way below consensus.
Almost like they wanted to dead cat their own failure rather than get on with fixing it.
It seems that if we want to get inflation down, we need to all we can to ensure a swift Ukrainian victory.
Not for that reason unless it results in Putin being replaced by someone willing to open up gas exports (and it could equally lead to him being replaced by an even more dangerous revanchist). From the inflation viewpoint, a negotiated settlement leading to restoration of business as usual is needed, but that's inconceivable any time soon. I think that a reduction in gas demand in the west (if necessary by rationing) is more likely to produce lower inflation than whatever happens in Ukraine.
I fear for those businesses and staff predominantly in the hospitality industry. It will be a bloodbath for them, especially in the less busy months post Xmas. Discretionary spend is going to fall off a cliff and the new PM, Liz Truss, is going to have to pivot very quickly from her current promises onto it to get something done. Average bills of £3,500 a year are going to see some people with bills far higher than that.
Whether cutting the money supply going into a recession is at all clever is a question left for the new prime minister.
The 2008 interventions were never sterilised. That lead to asset price inflation that has now broken through into consumer price inflation.
Would this adjustment had been done before now. But it needs to be done. Your approach is redolent of the “extend and pretend” strategy of over leveraged borrowers
QE having caused asset price inflation is not the problem right now, when inflation is due mainly to the war in Ukraine that has effected both hard and soft commodities, and partly to Covid lockdowns that disrupted manufacturing supply chains.
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
As fucked as whoever wins in September? By 2024, there might be enough visible failure for a grownup conversation about what we do about this, rather than all the boosterism nonsense.
Meanwhile, Bozza looks like he may have done the political equivalent of shimmying down the drainpipe just before the husband enters the room. A fair chunk of the incoming pain is his responsibility, but you can be sure that his successor will be the one to cop the blame,
Even more so, IMO. They're going to have to cut spending more than we've ever seen and to areas where cuts have previously been unthinkable like the NHS and pensions.
Forecast is built on the absolute nonsense assumption that current insane energy prices persist forever. The Bank's core projection is more negative than simply following the futures curve which itself doesn't price in the inevitable reversion to something vaguely approaching normal once the situation changes.
In reality there is going to be a big deflationary windfall for houses at some point from 23-25, and this forecast is going to be bang in line with the BoE track record - garbage.
Can you explain what you mean by "a big deflationary windfall for houses". Does that mean falling house prices due to higher interest rates?
It means energy prices are being held several multiples above their natural level by geopolitical factors, and once those factors are resolved prices will fall back to somewhere within 150% of where they started, so everyone paying a gas bill will get a big saving vs this current spike. What goes up must come down.
We're just into the 'price negotiation' stage of a possible house purchase. Uncomfortable climate to be doing it in.
With the prospect of fairly rapid interest rate hikes, house price inflation will quite likely decouple from consumer inflation. Feel free to quote me.
Decouple which way though?
The London mid/high end market seems to be a creature unto itself. No mortgages, no chains, lots of cash sloshing around.
CoL crisis? Yes for many - bigtime - but will it "trickle UP"?
Global inflation arguably makes London property MORE attractive. The ultimate bank vault, plus you - or your kids - can live in it
Yeah, this is why we are buying a flat. Complete next week.
Can I second those PB-ers who are asking: where the heck do I put cash to hedge against inflation? Somewhere reasonably liquid but safe from a crash?
I'd stick with Cash because it IS safe from a Crash - assuming you have it in very low Credit Risk places.
Other assets, eg shares and property, can lose an outright chunk of their capital value. Cash is eroded, drip drip, by inflation but £1m remains £1m and you get the benefit of an income boost as interest rates rise. Eg if rates double from 1.5 to 3, so does your income.
Hey, had a question for you - what do you make of Richmond as a place to live?
Forecast is built on the absolute nonsense assumption that current insane energy prices persist forever. The Bank's core projection is more negative than simply following the futures curve which itself doesn't price in the inevitable reversion to something vaguely approaching normal once the situation changes.
In reality there is going to be a big deflationary windfall for houses at some point from 23-25, and this forecast is going to be bang in line with the BoE track record - garbage.
Can you explain what you mean by "a big deflationary windfall for houses". Does that mean falling house prices due to higher interest rates?
Good luck, although I am wondering if the sudden bad economic news (even if expected) might be used as an excuse to end the leadership race early and get a new Prime Minister into Downing Street rather than rely on the incumbent who, it has been reported, has gone on holiday. Taiwan too.
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
I’m on a ten year fix with four years to run (although sadly I think I might be able to pay it off earlier than I expected).
13% inflation just makes the risible 3% thrown my way by the treasury even more insulting.
Still very much under the weather with covid but listening to the BOE governor he seems utterly powerless to mitigate the economic crisis now unfolding both here and across Europe, and it seems the country is becoming ungovernable by any political party for the forceable future and 2024 is definitely the election to lose
Seems to be hanging around for a while? I do hope you are properly better soon.
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
As fucked as whoever wins in September? By 2024, there might be enough visible failure for a grownup conversation about what we do about this, rather than all the boosterism nonsense.
Meanwhile, Bozza looks like he may have done the political equivalent of shimmying down the drainpipe just before the husband enters the room. A fair chunk of the incoming pain is his responsibility, but you can be sure that his successor will be the one to cop the blame,
Bozo is once again a lucky clown in that he isn't the one sat in No 10 as the pain becomes obvious to all involved.
Still very much under the weather with covid but listening to the BOE governor he seems utterly powerless to mitigate the economic crisis now unfolding both here and across Europe, and it seems the country is becoming ungovernable by any political party for the forceable future and 2024 is definitely the election to lose
Is this your first bout big G? Have I got that right? I have still managed to avoid it. Or at least if I have had it I didn't know. During the pandemic I have just gone for proper ailments ( paralysed vocal cord, broken legs) not your namby pamby COVID.
Good luck, although I am wondering if the sudden bad economic news (even if expected) might be used as an excuse to end the leadership race early and get a new Prime Minister into Downing Street rather than rely on the incumbent who, it has been reported, has gone on holiday. Taiwan too.
Deleted. I read that as Bozo had gone on holiday to Taiwan! Not even he's that daft.
It seems that if we want to get inflation down, we need to all we can to ensure a swift Ukrainian victory.
Not for that reason unless it results in Putin being replaced by someone willing to open up gas exports (and it could equally lead to him being replaced by an even more dangerous revanchist).
Putin is not revanchist. He can't be. Russia hasn't lost any territory. Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
We're just into the 'price negotiation' stage of a possible house purchase. Uncomfortable climate to be doing it in.
With the prospect of fairly rapid interest rate hikes, house price inflation will quite likely decouple from consumer inflation. Feel free to quote me.
Decouple which way though?
The London mid/high end market seems to be a creature unto itself. No mortgages, no chains, lots of cash sloshing around.
CoL crisis? Yes for many - bigtime - but will it "trickle UP"?
Global inflation arguably makes London property MORE attractive. The ultimate bank vault, plus you - or your kids - can live in it
Yeah, this is why we are buying a flat. Complete next week.
Should be solid long term.
Me, I'm just wary of buying a house a month or 3 before property has a minicrash - eg 10/20% slide.
That would bruise my self-esteem since trading and risk management is one of my few genuine skills.
Those really are quite staggering predictions. Four weeks of an election campaign and everyone in government on holiday, and likely in different jobs by September. Not sure the full scale has been appreciated by many.
I don't know why you are putting so much faith in them given how crap all their previous predictions have been.
Yes, they have consistently under predicted inflation in all recent forecasts.
It seems that if we want to get inflation down, we need to all we can to ensure a swift Ukrainian victory.
Not for that reason unless it results in Putin being replaced by someone willing to open up gas exports (and it could equally lead to him being replaced by an even more dangerous revanchist).
Putin is not revanchist. He can't be. Russia hasn't lost any territory. Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
Well, that's an interesting rewriting of history...
Can I second those PB-ers who are asking: where the heck do I put cash to hedge against inflation? Somewhere reasonably liquid but safe from a crash?
I'd stick with Cash because it IS safe from a Crash - assuming you have it in very low Credit Risk places.
Other assets, eg shares and property, can lose an outright chunk of their capital value. Cash is eroded, drip drip, by inflation but £1m remains £1m and you get the benefit of an income boost as interest rates rise. Eg if rates double from 1.5 to 3, so does your income.
Hey, had a question for you - what do you make of Richmond as a place to live?
Thanks for the advice. I tend to agree. And cash is so liquid. I may shift it into $ tho. Safe haven currency - at least until Trump wins
Richmond is lovely. Mick Jagger lives there for a reason. It’s green and chic and super prosperous
However it is very pricey, you need to be near the river and/or the park, and it might feel frustratingly far out for someone used to central-ish London like you. There’s no way of dashing into the West End or King’s X or the City/Wharf from Richmond. It always takes an hour
It seems that if we want to get inflation down, we need to all we can to ensure a swift Ukrainian victory.
Not for that reason unless it results in Putin being replaced by someone willing to open up gas exports (and it could equally lead to him being replaced by an even more dangerous revanchist).
Putin is not revanchist. He can't be. Russia hasn't lost any territory. Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
I’m on a ten year fix with four years to run (although sadly I think I might be able to pay it off earlier than I expected).
13% inflation just makes the risible 3% thrown my way by the treasury even more insulting.
Absolutely so. There are going to be lots of industrial disputes with strikes and work to rule by the autumn.
Can I second those PB-ers who are asking: where the heck do I put cash to hedge against inflation? Somewhere reasonably liquid but safe from a crash?
I'd stick with Cash because it IS safe from a Crash - assuming you have it in very low Credit Risk places.
Other assets, eg shares and property, can lose an outright chunk of their capital value. Cash is eroded, drip drip, by inflation but £1m remains £1m and you get the benefit of an income boost as interest rates rise. Eg if rates double from 1.5 to 3, so does your income.
Hey, had a question for you - what do you make of Richmond as a place to live?
The current real interest rate is -8% and as per this latest forecast it's going to continue to get lower for quite a while, so the idea of an 'income boost' for holding cash is a fairytale.
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
As fucked as whoever wins in September? By 2024, there might be enough visible failure for a grownup conversation about what we do about this, rather than all the boosterism nonsense.
Meanwhile, Bozza looks like he may have done the political equivalent of shimmying down the drainpipe just before the husband enters the room. A fair chunk of the incoming pain is his responsibility, but you can be sure that his successor will be the one to cop the blame,
Even more so, IMO. They're going to have to cut spending more than we've ever seen and to areas where cuts have previously been unthinkable like the NHS and pensions.
In retrospect, we should have let Covid rip. Kill a million old people 🤷♂️🤷♂️ and the obese 🧐
Before I am accused of callousness, my parents would have gone in the cull. So be it
The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.
Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.
Hence as I said the Tories should have kept Boris.
Instead they will end up with Truss, who is basically Boris without the charisma
Up to a point, Lord Copper.
In terms of charisma and political talent, Boris remains the outstanding figure of this batch of Conservatives. Unless his successor manages him very carefullly, he is going to oushine them as King over the water. And Truss, who is basically Norfolk's third best Boris Johnson tribute act, looks like she has most of his downsides with few of his skills.
I can see why Boris in a dress is attractive to some Conservatives, but electing her would be doubling down on the choice of 2019, which really looks like a mistake.
Because, ultimately, Boris had to go. Look what happened in the May elections; whoever was the not-Conservative candidate did well. His conduct was well below the standards the public expect from their leaders. On top of all the individual scandals, the fact that he has left his party choosing between Tweedlebankers and Tweedlebonkers shows what a terrible leader he has been.
Right now, the Conservatives don't seem to have any good moves, only differently bad ones. The same could well be true of the country, looking at our economic and European situations. And as in chess, that can be traced back to choices made, perhaps unwittingly, several moves ago.
But like it or not, there is still a need to choose the best move, even if it's not very good.
In the South and London Boris did not do so well in May but in the North and Midlands the Tory vote held up reasonably well.
Policy wise Truss is little different to Boris except a bit more Thatcherite economically with a more leftwing past.
Yes there was the issue of Boris' partygate fine etc but the candidate put up against Truss by Tory MPs, Sunak, was also fined.
There is a chance Truss not only gets a bounce but sustains it, more likely however I fear she leads the party to a bigger defeat and worse general election result than Boris would have got
With Boris, it would have been one scandal after another. Because, he simply does not believe that the law of the land applies to him.. That's why he had to go.
Boris was impossible to sustain because on the doorsteps, there was no answer to "Why do you think I would vote for a liar?"
The worry with Truss is there is no answer to "Why do you think I would vote for an idiot"
It seems that if we want to get inflation down, we need to all we can to ensure a swift Ukrainian victory.
Not for that reason unless it results in Putin being replaced by someone willing to open up gas exports (and it could equally lead to him being replaced by an even more dangerous revanchist).
Putin is not revanchist. He can't be. Russia hasn't lost any territory. Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
Putin regards all of Ukraine and Belarus and the Baltic States as lost lands.
Plainly, it would be excellent news if Ukraine recaptured Crimea and Donbass, but that's probably too much to hope for.
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
I’m on a ten year fix with four years to run (although sadly I think I might be able to pay it off earlier than I expected).
13% inflation just makes the risible 3% thrown my way by the treasury even more insulting.
Absolutely so. There are going to be lots of industrial disputes with strikes and work to rule by the autumn.
Unfortunately my little bit of the public sector is one which would be noticed badly if we all left, but not if we went on strike for a few days. Well, certain important clients would notice but we’d screw our own budget with that one.
We're just into the 'price negotiation' stage of a possible house purchase. Uncomfortable climate to be doing it in.
With the prospect of fairly rapid interest rate hikes, house price inflation will quite likely decouple from consumer inflation. Feel free to quote me.
Decouple which way though?
The London mid/high end market seems to be a creature unto itself. No mortgages, no chains, lots of cash sloshing around.
CoL crisis? Yes for many - bigtime - but will it "trickle UP"?
Global inflation arguably makes London property MORE attractive. The ultimate bank vault, plus you - or your kids - can live in it
So long as the financial services sector in London grows and grows. Whoosh...up it goes...and continues to go... Global inflation? No problem. World economy down the plughole? We got it. War? Plague? You betcha! The casino remains open. *waves property title*
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
As fucked as whoever wins in September? By 2024, there might be enough visible failure for a grownup conversation about what we do about this, rather than all the boosterism nonsense.
Meanwhile, Bozza looks like he may have done the political equivalent of shimmying down the drainpipe just before the husband enters the room. A fair chunk of the incoming pain is his responsibility, but you can be sure that his successor will be the one to cop the blame,
Even more so, IMO. They're going to have to cut spending more than we've ever seen and to areas where cuts have previously been unthinkable like the NHS and pensions.
In retrospect, we should have let Covid rip. Kill a million old people 🤷♂️🤷♂️ and the obese 🧐
Before I am accused of callousness, my parents would have gone in the cull. So be it
Worth remembering. Only a third of adults have a mortgage. Of them, only about a quarter aren't fixed rate.
How many are "fixed" for more than a few years. We are "fixed" but only got 2 years left on the term.
There's some detail here - around two thirds of fixed mortgages are fixed for 5 years and above (though it's not entirely clear whether the fix is five years total, or five years left to run).
While 83.1 per cent of existing mortgage holders are on fixed-rate contracts, as many as 32.7 per cent of this group are on short agreements of 24 months or less, according to data from the Bank of England...
Still very much under the weather with covid but listening to the BOE governor he seems utterly powerless to mitigate the economic crisis now unfolding both here and across Europe, and it seems the country is becoming ungovernable by any political party for the forceable future and 2024 is definitely the election to lose
Is this your first bout big G? Have I got that right? I have still managed to avoid it. Or at least if I have had it I didn't know. During the pandemic I have just gone for proper ailments ( paralysed vocal cord, broken legs) not your namby pamby COVID.
Yes and for my wife.
We caught it last week while on holiday on the Caledonian canal and it has floored both of us with my wife saying she has not felt as bad since she had Asian flu. Today is day 7 and we expect it will be some days more before we see much of an improvement
We have both had 4 jabs and another due but at 78 and 82 it is not ideal to catch this rather nasty bug
It seems that if we want to get inflation down, we need to all we can to ensure a swift Ukrainian victory.
Not for that reason unless it results in Putin being replaced by someone willing to open up gas exports (and it could equally lead to him being replaced by an even more dangerous revanchist). From the inflation viewpoint, a negotiated settlement leading to restoration of business as usual is needed, but that's inconceivable any time soon. I think that a reduction in gas demand in the west (if necessary by rationing) is more likely to produce lower inflation than whatever happens in Ukraine.
War panic drives prices higher than they would go purely on the basis of supply and demand.
IMHO, a decisive Russian defeat makes an armistice more likely than prolonged conflict.
The government is fucked. If that happens then around £600bn of our debt will attract RPI plus the coupon, so an average of ~19%, plus the interest on all of the other £1.2tn non index linked bonds.
We're looking at a debt servicing cost of £130-150bn per year. Absolutely insane.
It seems that if we want to get inflation down, we need to all we can to ensure a swift Ukrainian victory.
Not for that reason unless it results in Putin being replaced by someone willing to open up gas exports (and it could equally lead to him being replaced by an even more dangerous revanchist).
Putin is not revanchist. He can't be. Russia hasn't lost any territory. Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
Can I second those PB-ers who are asking: where the heck do I put cash to hedge against inflation? Somewhere reasonably liquid but safe from a crash?
I'd stick with Cash because it IS safe from a Crash - assuming you have it in very low Credit Risk places.
Other assets, eg shares and property, can lose an outright chunk of their capital value. Cash is eroded, drip drip, by inflation but £1m remains £1m and you get the benefit of an income boost as interest rates rise. Eg if rates double from 1.5 to 3, so does your income.
Hey, had a question for you - what do you make of Richmond as a place to live?
Thanks for the advice. I tend to agree. And cash is so liquid. I may shift it into $ tho. Safe haven currency - at least until Trump wins
Richmond is lovely. Mick Jagger lives there for a reason. It’s green and chic and super prosperous
However it is very pricey, you need to be near the river and/or the park, and it might feel frustratingly far out for someone used to central-ish London like you. There’s no way of dashing into the West End or King’s X or the City/Wharf from Richmond. It always takes an hour
But the river is brilliant at Richmond
For anywhere in West and South-West London, you need to give a thought to Heathrow flight paths and plane spotting.
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
As fucked as whoever wins in September? By 2024, there might be enough visible failure for a grownup conversation about what we do about this, rather than all the boosterism nonsense.
Meanwhile, Bozza looks like he may have done the political equivalent of shimmying down the drainpipe just before the husband enters the room. A fair chunk of the incoming pain is his responsibility, but you can be sure that his successor will be the one to cop the blame,
Even more so, IMO. They're going to have to cut spending more than we've ever seen and to areas where cuts have previously been unthinkable like the NHS and pensions.
In retrospect, we should have let Covid rip. Kill a million old people 🤷♂️🤷♂️ and the obese 🧐
Before I am accused of callousness, my parents would have gone in the cull. So be it
It's hard to say how much that strategy would have helped. At least some lost production is due to people actually being ill with Covid rather than being due to the measures taken to mitigate the spread of Covid.
The summer drought in local by-elections continues. Just 2 today; a Lab defence in Luton and a strange one in Shetland where there were only 2 candidates for 3 seats in May and so there is a by-election to fill the third seat. Even more strange there are 5 candidates - all Independent.
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
As fucked as whoever wins in September? By 2024, there might be enough visible failure for a grownup conversation about what we do about this, rather than all the boosterism nonsense.
Meanwhile, Bozza looks like he may have done the political equivalent of shimmying down the drainpipe just before the husband enters the room. A fair chunk of the incoming pain is his responsibility, but you can be sure that his successor will be the one to cop the blame,
Even more so, IMO. They're going to have to cut spending more than we've ever seen and to areas where cuts have previously been unthinkable like the NHS and pensions.
In retrospect, we should have let Covid rip. Kill a million old people 🤷♂️🤷♂️ and the obese 🧐
Before I am accused of callousness, my parents would have gone in the cull. So be it
Well. That’s a take.
It is the brutal truth. As I see it
I guess we had to do parts of lockdown 1, maybe. Til we knew what we were facing. But even then it should have been voluntary, like Sweden. We should never have closed the schools
We fucked ourselves long term for a disease which is, at its worst, five-ten times more lethal than flu, and which mainly kills the very old or very obese
Still very much under the weather with covid but listening to the BOE governor he seems utterly powerless to mitigate the economic crisis now unfolding both here and across Europe, and it seems the country is becoming ungovernable by any political party for the forceable future and 2024 is definitely the election to lose
Is this your first bout big G? Have I got that right? I have still managed to avoid it. Or at least if I have had it I didn't know. During the pandemic I have just gone for proper ailments ( paralysed vocal cord, broken legs) not your namby pamby COVID.
Yes and for my wife.
We caught it last week while on holiday on the Caledonian canal and it has floored both of us with my wife saying she has not felt as bad since she had Asian flu. Today is day 7 and we expect it will be some days more before we see much of an improvement
We have both had 4 jabs and another due but at 78 and 82 it is not ideal to catch this rather nasty bug
No certainly not. Glad it’s getting no worse at least. I’ve been off work with “not covid” according to my LFDs but the last couple of days have been a bit unpleasant.
So glad we fixed for 5 years when we got our house last year. 13% inflation is mad, interest rates will have to rise quite substantially, much more than the Bank is currently letting on. Whoever wins in 2024 is fucked.
As fucked as whoever wins in September? By 2024, there might be enough visible failure for a grownup conversation about what we do about this, rather than all the boosterism nonsense.
Meanwhile, Bozza looks like he may have done the political equivalent of shimmying down the drainpipe just before the husband enters the room. A fair chunk of the incoming pain is his responsibility, but you can be sure that his successor will be the one to cop the blame,
Even more so, IMO. They're going to have to cut spending more than we've ever seen and to areas where cuts have previously been unthinkable like the NHS and pensions.
In retrospect, we should have let Covid rip. Kill a million old people 🤷♂️🤷♂️ and the obese 🧐
Before I am accused of callousness, my parents would have gone in the cull. So be it
On a crude basis, Tesco own baked beans are up 30% over six months. £1 for a pack of 4 in January, £1.30 yesterday.
We can talk about headline figures, but the things I'm seeing at the lower end are considerably more alarming. That's where the worst effects will be. Most people on this board have at least some kind of cushion, even people like me without a permanent job (I can do supply teaching if I have to). For many, the money just won't be there to absorb these shocks.
I was actually just checking my weekly supermarket delivery yesterday. Much the same shopping list week to week - but roughly 30% up since the start of the year. But also noticeable shrinkflation on top of that. 400g of chicken now a bit more expensive, but also down to 300-350g in the pack.
I fear for those businesses and staff predominantly in the hospitality industry. It will be a bloodbath for them, especially in the less busy months post Xmas. Discretionary spend is going to fall off a cliff and the new PM, Liz Truss, is going to have to pivot very quickly from her current promises onto it to get something done. Average bills of £3,500 a year are going to see some people with bills far higher than that.
There is still a wall of cash sloshing around from lockdown, where savings rates went through the roof, and the MPC was necessarily forced down. That is still playing out and will do for the next few months at least.
Try getting a builder/plumber/sparks to come to your house next week. Ain't gonna happen.
Still very much under the weather with covid but listening to the BOE governor he seems utterly powerless to mitigate the economic crisis now unfolding both here and across Europe, and it seems the country is becoming ungovernable by any political party for the forceable future and 2024 is definitely the election to lose
It seems that if we want to get inflation down, we need to all we can to ensure a swift Ukrainian victory.
Not for that reason unless it results in Putin being replaced by someone willing to open up gas exports (and it could equally lead to him being replaced by an even more dangerous revanchist).
Putin is not revanchist. He can't be. Russia hasn't lost any territory. Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
Putin regards all of Ukraine and Belarus and the Baltic States as lost lands.
Plainly, it would be excellent news if Ukraine recaptured Crimea and Donbass, but that's probably too much to hope for.
It would be hilarious if Ukraine took the entire Don Basin, because then Lavrov would be forced to ask Liz Truss whether she would withdraw her comment and recognise Russian sovereignty over Rostov.
Putin is not revanchist. He can't be. Russia hasn't lost any territory. Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
Stop quibbling and bullshitting.
He's a murderous criminal pursuing an illegal war of aggression.
Putin is not revanchist. He can't be. Russia hasn't lost any territory. Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
The yawning chasm between the pronouncements of Tory politicians & the scale of the imminent economic crisis is unfathomable. Until you remember the reality-denying nature of the Brexit the whole party is now infected by. At which point the chasm becomes completely inevitable. https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1555165723865096195
Comments
She does not think through what she says, her history in the Liberal Democrats is evidence enough let alone the crazy financial philosophy she is perpetrating at the moment. She is not a Conservative, she is not a Liberal Democrat, most of her actions are wrong at the time, except for say the Iranian hostage releases, what actually is she? She is no Thatcher who to her credit was not a party changer, she was a Conservative.
I think we are headed for a really dangerous economic, financial and international situation if she wins.
Conservative Councillors and local party officials are concerned about her, but the membership is something else.
Four weeks of an election campaign and everyone in government on holiday, and likely in different jobs by September.
Not sure the full scale has been appreciated by many.
I don't know what then happens in the spring, but I reckon the non-payment campaign is probably net helpful to the government in providing a way through the winter for the poorest. It should see us through the winter without civil disorder.
Would this adjustment had been done before now. But it needs to be done. Your approach is redolent of the “extend and pretend” strategy of over leveraged borrowers
The US has advantages in being an oil and food producer rather than importer. And they have been slightly more aggressive with their base rate increases.
No one will escape global economic problems, but some will fare considerably worse than others.
Which is why I am slightly suspicious about trying to generalise from it.
Blair by contrast went to war in Iraq based on lies about WMD and Labour kept him in office
Feel free to quote me.
https://unherd.com/2022/08/how-populist-is-liz-truss/?tl_inbound=1&tl_groups[0]=18743&tl_period_type=3&mc_cid=043035353b&mc_eid=836634e34b
Whether the born again Leaver Truss realizes this or whether she decides to go all in and do EU hate on steroids time will tell .
Bot sure how raising interest rates helps fight Covid in China.
Notable the pound rose half a cent on the dollar this morning in anticipation of the rate rise. It's lost all that on the recession predictions.
The London mid/high end market seems to be a creature unto itself. No mortgages, no chains, lots of cash sloshing around.
CoL crisis? Yes for many - bigtime - but will it "trickle UP"?
It might be the right answer (although it ducked the minority shareholders in EDF) but it’s not a cost free option
In reality there is going to be a big deflationary windfall for houses at some point from 23-25, and this forecast is going to be bang in line with the BoE track record - garbage.
Meanwhile, Bozza looks like he may have done the political equivalent of shimmying down the drainpipe just before the husband enters the room. A fair chunk of the incoming pain is his responsibility, but you can be sure that his successor will be the one to cop the blame,
Global inflation arguably makes London property MORE attractive. The ultimate bank vault, plus you - or your kids - can live in it
Still very much under the weather with covid but listening to the BOE governor he seems utterly powerless to mitigate the economic crisis now unfolding both here and across Europe, and it seems the country is becoming ungovernable by any political party for the forceable future and 2024 is definitely the election to lose
Almost like they wanted to dead cat their own failure rather than get on with fixing it.
Other assets, eg shares and property, can lose an outright chunk of their capital value. Cash is eroded, drip drip, by inflation but £1m remains £1m and you get the benefit of an income boost as interest rates rise. Eg if rates double from 1.5 to 3, so does your income.
Hey, had a question for you - what do you make of Richmond as a place to live?
13% inflation just makes the risible 3% thrown my way by the treasury even more insulting.
However, my point was the immediate effect.
Interest rates will remain below historic trends for many years to come.
I read that as Bozo had gone on holiday to Taiwan!
Not even he's that daft.
Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
Me, I'm just wary of buying a house a month or 3 before property has a minicrash - eg 10/20% slide.
That would bruise my self-esteem since trading and risk management is one of my few genuine skills.
Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
Well, that's an interesting rewriting of history...
Richmond is lovely. Mick Jagger lives there for a reason. It’s green and chic and super prosperous
However it is very pricey, you need to be near the river and/or the park, and it might feel frustratingly far out for someone used to central-ish London like you. There’s no way of dashing into the West End or King’s X or the City/Wharf from Richmond. It always takes an hour
But the river is brilliant at Richmond
Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
Hey, look the botnik is back.
Before I am accused of callousness, my parents would have gone in the cull. So be it
Zelensky is the revanchist: he wants to regain the territories of the Donbas and Crimea that separation referendums took out of the Ukraine eight years ago.
Putin regards all of Ukraine and Belarus and the Baltic States as lost lands.
Plainly, it would be excellent news if Ukraine recaptured Crimea and Donbass, but that's probably too much to hope for.
https://www.ft.com/content/750b9ce8-ca4d-41f0-8d44-03f07bb381ff
...At least one-third of UK mortgage holders on fixed-rate contracts are likely to see their repayments rise within two years as their current terms expire.
While 83.1 per cent of existing mortgage holders are on fixed-rate contracts, as many as 32.7 per cent of this group are on short agreements of 24 months or less, according to data from the Bank of England...
We caught it last week while on holiday on the Caledonian canal and it has floored both of us with my wife saying she has not felt as bad since she had Asian flu. Today is day 7 and we expect it will be some days more before we see much of an improvement
We have both had 4 jabs and another due but at 78 and 82 it is not ideal to catch this rather nasty bug
IMHO, a decisive Russian defeat makes an armistice more likely than prolonged conflict.
We're looking at a debt servicing cost of £130-150bn per year. Absolutely insane.
I guess we had to do parts of lockdown 1, maybe. Til we knew what we were facing. But even then it should have been voluntary, like Sweden. We should never have closed the schools
We fucked ourselves long term for a disease which is, at its worst, five-ten times more lethal than flu, and which mainly kills the very old or very obese
Try getting a builder/plumber/sparks to come to your house next week. Ain't gonna happen.
He's a murderous criminal pursuing an illegal war of aggression.
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1555165723865096195