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Read the wording carefully on US Senate bets – politicalbetting.com
Read the wording carefully on US Senate bets – politicalbetting.com
Over the next three months, the big political betting activity will be on the US Midterm elections. On the first Tuesday in November the whole of the House of Representatives will be up as well as about a third of the Senate seats.
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A good chance of that repeating itself with the GOP gaining the House but the Democrats holding the Senate with a majority or the support of Sanders and King. Most Senate seats up in November are also currently held by the GOP
For example you can 5.3 on 48 Dem Senators (which would give a 50-50 Senate) here:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179676421
but lay no overall majority at 2.82 here:
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179673535
1.09 Liz Truss 92%
11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%
Next Conservative leader
1.09 Liz Truss 92%
11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%
I thought this was interesting.
It reminded me of an encounter with a couple we got chatting to by the beach at Cawsand a couple of days ago. They must have been in their sixties, they were down for their grandson's passing out ceremony at the nearby naval academy. They would have been labelled "white working class" by PB Tories - she was a retired school dinner lady. Like us they live in South London - from his accent I would guess he was a native Londoner, she was from Sunderland. She did most of the talking, but he got very animated talking about Brixton, telling us it was his favourite place because "the whole world is there." You can't generalise about people and their opinions, they will always be more interesting than the tabloid clichés.
Some disgruntled Tories claim this race now resembles a Keynesian beauty contest with new Conservative grandees emerging daily to back the candidate they think will win rather than the person best placed to run the country.
https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-live-updates-tv-debate-sunak-truss-12593360
Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
So laying would need to be shorter than 1.82 in order for the markets to be arbable. The lay price is 2.82.
The implied back/lay spread on NOM in the Dem senate market is {1.82 / 3.66}
I'm currently on:
49 GOP +71.00
50 GOP +78.30
Rest -35.00
If not,
Dem senate seats = 98 - GOP senate seats. Prices should be equal on Betfair, so not sure why they're offering two markets.
Murkowski still counts as GOP I think if she wins ?
Britain has been criticised by the US government for pursuing human trafficking victims for crimes their captors forced them to commit.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-failing-modern-slaves-says-us-f36j78nxr (£££)
There's certainly a significant number of GOP voters who don't want a total ban on abortion.
Not sure, but if forced to guess I'd say not. At least, not yet.
2.33 GOP
2.5 NOM
5.88 DEM
Betfair actual
2.16/2.2 GOP
2.66/2.8 NOM
5.3/5.9 Dem
https://www.tiktok.com/@hellscape_yt/video/7126464205363875078?_t=8UY1xhsNpVl&_r=1
Step 1 - to keep your credit rating intact you need to raise a complaint.
Step 2 - you need to keep the complaint open
Step 3 - eventually this ends up at the Energy Ombudsman and every complaint that gets there costs the energy firm £500
If that campaign takes off (and it will because if you can't pay your energy bill what else can you do) it's going to be very painful for energy firms
Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".
https://twitter.com/amnesty/status/1555102962623594496
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/03/14/political-independents-who-they-are-what-they-think/
If its an outright ban more will switch to Dem than if its, for example, a restriction to 13 weeks.
It will be interesting to see if the anti-abortionists overreach and go for maximalist restrictions.
Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.
The abortion issue is though likely to help their turnout, and the January 6 hearings will have some bearing as the Dems will hope to force GOP candidates to go on record as to where they stand .
The mid terms seem to be less a record on Biden which is somewhat unusual and the polling shows his job approval isn’t make or break for their chances .
The Manchin Schumer deal would help if it got through Congress but a lot will depend on inflation and the overall state of the economy .
It’s pretty clear though that the SCOTUS decision was a gift to the Dems , even though there was a lot of outrage behind the scenes the Dems were celebrating as it puts the GOP in a difficult position and could prove crucial in the more competitive states.
Yes I know about their alledged history, but I'd expect a future chancellor to be a bit more visible. Simon Clarke will be a bit miffed though I guess business will be a promotion for him.
But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
There's a huge amount of "lives to save" (If you want the anti-abortion lobby's words) whilst still allowing strictly medically neccesary abortions.
https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/
I would note, however, that in Ukraine the line between 'civilian' and 'soldier' might be somewhat blurred. In addition, if the front lines are in, or near a settlement that the population has not left, it becomes rather hard not to organise strikes from within that settlement - unless you cede it to the enemy.
It's be good to know what information sources they are using, as it does feed into Russia's claims. Though it doesn't explain why Russia finds it necessary to hit hospitals and schools in western Ukraine.
The first article on the front page of their website is the following, which seems much more balanced, though I might quibble with some of it:
https://www.amnesty.org.uk/protect-civilians-ukraine
But on its own, that tweet looks like something that Corbyn could have written...
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html
Some of the recent movements in the polls from individual polling firms are really amazing. E.g. Insider Advantage last month had Republicans +8 ahead. They are now only +1 ahead in their latest poll.
Another example: Monmouth had Republicans +2 ahead in their poll at the end of June. Their latest poll now has Democrats +3 ahead.
One look at his FCA job should have been disqualificating. Just seems there's a merry-go-round of top state jobs once you reach a certain level no matter how atrocious your performance in the previous job.
Ken Clarke should have been brought in.
And are we in agreement on that? I'd like to see a full percent. But 75 would be OK as politically acceptable.
I fear we may get a 25 however.
Those are the cases that prompted the legalisation of abortion in Ireland.
Politically, though, it does mean you can get very close to a 100% abortion ban without having to argue for a 100% abortion ban.
The oil price is still higher than it was at the start of the year but wheat prices appear to be back where they were pre-crisis. I suppose those blips will continue to feed into prices for some time,
"On Wednesday unidentified actors also allegedly targeted 7-Eleven convenience stores, making all in-store televisions across the island display a message accusing Pelosi of being a “warmonger”. The text was written in simplified Chinese, used in mainland China."
Firstly. They target 7-11. Secondly. They use a script precious few can read, and everyone despises.
At least the Met can pick from the head of 40 other Constabularies
Instead they will end up with Truss, who is basically Boris without the charisma
I reckon they can't possibly go higher than 50 basis points because they're too worried about admitting how far behind the curve they are.
In terms of charisma and political talent, Boris remains the outstanding figure of this batch of Conservatives. Unless his successor manages him very carefullly, he is going to oushine them as King over the water. And Truss, who is basically Norfolk's third best Boris Johnson tribute act, looks like she has most of his downsides with few of his skills.
I can see why Boris in a dress is attractive to some Conservatives, but electing her would be doubling down on the choice of 2019, which really looks like a mistake.
Because, ultimately, Boris had to go. Look what happened in the May elections; whoever was the not-Conservative candidate did well. His conduct was well below the standards the public expect from their leaders. On top of all the individual scandals, the fact that he has left his party choosing between Tweedlebankers and Tweedlebonkers shows what a terrible leader he has been.
Right now, the Conservatives don't seem to have any good moves, only differently bad ones. The same could well be true of the country, looking at our economic and European situations. And as in chess, that can be traced back to choices made, perhaps unwittingly, several moves ago.
But like it or not, there is still a need to choose the best move, even if it's not very good.
Other than for the reason you suggest.
The highly educated and well travelled won't. Less likely to be grabbing a 7-11 hot dog and tea egg though
Policy wise Truss is little different to Boris except a bit more Thatcherite economically with a more leftwing past.
Yes there was the issue of Boris' partygate fine etc but the candidate put up against Truss by Tory MPs, Sunak, was also fined.
There is a chance Truss not only gets a bounce but sustains it, more likely however I fear she leads the party to a bigger defeat and worse general election result than Boris would have got
The current inflation rate is a mixture of demand and supply issues. You can't fix the supply issues by interest rate rises and, if you want to target the demand side issues, you are better off targeting the wealthy who have benefited from large asset inflation / wage increases, largely caused by the QE programme.
One other point. The BoE this week loosened the lending criteria for mortgages. You could read that either way as a signal to what they will do with rates
Anyone holding substantial cash needs their head checking.
After today's rise - even if it was a whacking 1% we still have a overall real rate of ≈ -8 or worse.