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Read the wording carefully on US Senate bets – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited August 7 in General
imageRead the wording carefully on US Senate bets – politicalbetting.com

Over the next three months, the big political betting activity will be on the US Midterm elections. On the first Tuesday in November the whole of the House of Representatives will be up as well as about a third of the Senate seats.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,402
    edited August 4
    First like Busy Lizzie.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 41,040
    Second!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085
    I guess a better way of stating this market would be by party of Senate majority leader, and that would then deal with all the permutations.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,726
    Top 5 like CON at the next election! 👍
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102
    Should be noted that in both the most recent midterms in a President's first term, 2010 and 2018, the President's party lost the House but kept the Senate.

    A good chance of that repeating itself with the GOP gaining the House but the Democrats holding the Senate with a majority or the support of Sanders and King. Most Senate seats up in November are also currently held by the GOP
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,078
    edited August 4
    Unless I'm wrong there looks to be value in this market.

    For example you can 5.3 on 48 Dem Senators (which would give a 50-50 Senate) here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179676421

    but lay no overall majority at 2.82 here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179673535
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    Betfair next prime minister
    1.09 Liz Truss 92%
    11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%

    Next Conservative leader
    1.09 Liz Truss 92%
    11.5 Rishi Sunak 9%
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584
    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682

    Unless I'm wrong there looks to be value in this market.

    For example you can 5.3 on 48 Dem Senators (which would give a 50-50 Senate) here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179676421

    but lay no overall majority at 2.82 here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179673535

    Does your second bet not run into the same problem identified in the header, that of counting the non-Democrat Democrats?
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,567

    Unless I'm wrong there looks to be value in this market.

    For example you can 5.3 on 48 Dem Senators (which would give a 50-50 Senate) here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179676421

    but lay no overall majority at 2.82 here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179673535

    Does your second bet not run into the same problem identified in the header, that of counting the non-Democrat Democrats?
    Indeed, what happens with 49 or 50 dem senators?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,078

    Unless I'm wrong there looks to be value in this market.

    For example you can 5.3 on 48 Dem Senators (which would give a 50-50 Senate) here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179676421

    but lay no overall majority at 2.82 here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179673535

    But then a 49+2 Dems and Inds would also be a no majority.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    edited August 4

    Unless I'm wrong there looks to be value in this market.

    For example you can 5.3 on 48 Dem Senators (which would give a 50-50 Senate) here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179676421

    but lay no overall majority at 2.82 here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179673535

    No overall majority is {48,49,50} Democrat senate seats.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,749
    Who wants today's DALLE-2 isn't very intelligent example? https://twitter.com/TomerUllman/status/1554450808569319425
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    Tory hustings take a break for tonight's Tory leadership debate on Sky at 8 to 9.30 pm (although Sky seems to start an hour early for punditry and filler).
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    kamski said:

    Unless I'm wrong there looks to be value in this market.

    For example you can 5.3 on 48 Dem Senators (which would give a 50-50 Senate) here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179676421

    but lay no overall majority at 2.82 here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179673535

    Does your second bet not run into the same problem identified in the header, that of counting the non-Democrat Democrats?
    Indeed, what happens with 49 or 50 dem senators?
    Tbh I'd steer well clear of this market in case Betfair decides to change its rules nearer the date, or even after the event.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,078

    Unless I'm wrong there looks to be value in this market.

    For example you can 5.3 on 48 Dem Senators (which would give a 50-50 Senate) here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179676421

    but lay no overall majority at 2.82 here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179673535

    Does your second bet not run into the same problem identified in the header, that of counting the non-Democrat Democrats?
    It does - I've restricted my betting in this market to the number of GOP Senators for the reason OGH gives.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    Sky's Sam Coates has beaten me in the race to call the Tory leadership race a Keynesian beauty contest but politics did not seem to fit into the overnight thread.

    Some disgruntled Tories claim this race now resembles a Keynesian beauty contest with new Conservative grandees emerging daily to back the candidate they think will win rather than the person best placed to run the country.
    https://news.sky.com/story/tory-leadership-live-updates-tv-debate-sunak-truss-12593360
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,808

    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?

    There were c 470k votes in the Rep primary. Around 260k in the Dem. And about 920k in the abortion vote. Since only registered Party voters can vote in the Primaries in Kansas it suggests a pretty good Independent turnout.
    Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    edited August 4

    kamski said:

    Unless I'm wrong there looks to be value in this market.

    For example you can 5.3 on 48 Dem Senators (which would give a 50-50 Senate) here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179676421

    but lay no overall majority at 2.82 here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179673535

    Does your second bet not run into the same problem identified in the header, that of counting the non-Democrat Democrats?
    Indeed, what happens with 49 or 50 dem senators?
    Tbh I'd steer well clear of this market in case Betfair decides to change its rules nearer the date, or even after the event.
    Backing the group of 48,49,50 Dems on Betfair is 54.79% of the market.

    So laying would need to be shorter than 1.82 in order for the markets to be arbable. The lay price is 2.82.

    The implied back/lay spread on NOM in the Dem senate market is {1.82 / 3.66}
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584
    dixiedean said:

    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?

    There were c 470k votes in the Rep primary. Around 260k in the Dem. And about 920k in the abortion vote. Since only registered Party voters can vote in the Primaries in Kansas it suggests a pretty good Independent turnout.
    Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
    Thanks for the figures. Rather bears out my suspicion. Since the Republicans have nailed their colours to the anti-abortion mast it it does suggest that the Independents might break largely for the Democrats.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,078
    Pulpstar said:

    kamski said:

    Unless I'm wrong there looks to be value in this market.

    For example you can 5.3 on 48 Dem Senators (which would give a 50-50 Senate) here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179676421

    but lay no overall majority at 2.82 here:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.179673535

    Does your second bet not run into the same problem identified in the header, that of counting the non-Democrat Democrats?
    Indeed, what happens with 49 or 50 dem senators?
    Tbh I'd steer well clear of this market in case Betfair decides to change its rules nearer the date, or even after the event.
    Backing the group of 48,49,50 Dems on Betfair is 54.79% of the market.

    So laying would need to be shorter than 1.82 in order for the markets to be arbable. The lay price is 2.82
    50 Dems though would require a gain in either WI or OH as well as PN and no losses.

    I'm currently on:

    49 GOP +71.00
    50 GOP +78.30
    Rest -35.00
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    Is there a possibility of any more independent senators other than King and Sanders entering the house in the midterms ?

    If not,

    Dem senate seats = 98 - GOP senate seats. Prices should be equal on Betfair, so not sure why they're offering two markets.
    Murkowski still counts as GOP I think if she wins ?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682
    Britain failing modern slaves, says US

    Britain has been criticised by the US government for pursuing human trafficking victims for crimes their captors forced them to commit.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/britain-failing-modern-slaves-says-us-f36j78nxr (£££)
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/04/white-working-class-fiction-tories-obsessed

    I thought this was interesting.
    It reminded me of an encounter with a couple we got chatting to by the beach at Cawsand a couple of days ago. They must have been in their sixties, they were down for their grandson's passing out ceremony at the nearby naval academy. They would have been labelled "white working class" by PB Tories - she was a retired school dinner lady. Like us they live in South London - from his accent I would guess he was a native Londoner, she was from Sunderland. She did most of the talking, but he got very animated talking about Brixton, telling us it was his favourite place because "the whole world is there." You can't generalise about people and their opinions, they will always be more interesting than the tabloid clichés.

    I'm intrigued by the implication there is something even less interesting than a tabloid cliche. What would that be? Perhaps the Hundred?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,078
    dixiedean said:

    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?

    There were c 470k votes in the Rep primary. Around 260k in the Dem. And about 920k in the abortion vote. Since only registered Party voters can vote in the Primaries in Kansas it suggests a pretty good Independent turnout.
    Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
    I made a quick comparison of the swing between the 2020 Trump vote and the Yes vote and it looked like the swing was largest the more GOP a county was.

    There's certainly a significant number of GOP voters who don't want a total ban on abortion.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127
    ydoethur said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/04/white-working-class-fiction-tories-obsessed

    I thought this was interesting.
    It reminded me of an encounter with a couple we got chatting to by the beach at Cawsand a couple of days ago. They must have been in their sixties, they were down for their grandson's passing out ceremony at the nearby naval academy. They would have been labelled "white working class" by PB Tories - she was a retired school dinner lady. Like us they live in South London - from his accent I would guess he was a native Londoner, she was from Sunderland. She did most of the talking, but he got very animated talking about Brixton, telling us it was his favourite place because "the whole world is there." You can't generalise about people and their opinions, they will always be more interesting than the tabloid clichés.

    I'm intrigued by the implication there is something even less interesting than a tabloid cliche. What would that be? Perhaps the Hundred?
    PB discussions about Scotland?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,432

    ydoethur said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/04/white-working-class-fiction-tories-obsessed

    I thought this was interesting.
    It reminded me of an encounter with a couple we got chatting to by the beach at Cawsand a couple of days ago. They must have been in their sixties, they were down for their grandson's passing out ceremony at the nearby naval academy. They would have been labelled "white working class" by PB Tories - she was a retired school dinner lady. Like us they live in South London - from his accent I would guess he was a native Londoner, she was from Sunderland. She did most of the talking, but he got very animated talking about Brixton, telling us it was his favourite place because "the whole world is there." You can't generalise about people and their opinions, they will always be more interesting than the tabloid clichés.

    I'm intrigued by the implication there is something even less interesting than a tabloid cliche. What would that be? Perhaps the Hundred?
    PB discussions about Scotland?
    Bit harsh on Stuart Dickson. His spats with Leon liven things up.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584
    ydoethur said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/04/white-working-class-fiction-tories-obsessed

    I thought this was interesting.
    It reminded me of an encounter with a couple we got chatting to by the beach at Cawsand a couple of days ago. They must have been in their sixties, they were down for their grandson's passing out ceremony at the nearby naval academy. They would have been labelled "white working class" by PB Tories - she was a retired school dinner lady. Like us they live in South London - from his accent I would guess he was a native Londoner, she was from Sunderland. She did most of the talking, but he got very animated talking about Brixton, telling us it was his favourite place because "the whole world is there." You can't generalise about people and their opinions, they will always be more interesting than the tabloid clichés.

    I'm intrigued by the implication there is something even less interesting than a tabloid cliche. What would that be? Perhaps the Hundred?
    One or both of them must've travelled a bit if she came from Sunderland and he was from South London! And you can't travel even "a bit" and retain a closed mind!
  • DriverDriver Posts: 478
    How is Sanders, in particular, still allowed to pretend to be an independent?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085

    dixiedean said:

    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?

    There were c 470k votes in the Rep primary. Around 260k in the Dem. And about 920k in the abortion vote. Since only registered Party voters can vote in the Primaries in Kansas it suggests a pretty good Independent turnout.
    Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
    I made a quick comparison of the swing between the 2020 Trump vote and the Yes vote and it looked like the swing was largest the more GOP a county was.

    There's certainly a significant number of GOP voters who don't want a total ban on abortion.
    Is the issue important enough for them to vote Democrat despite all the other reasons that mean they normally vote Republican?

    Not sure, but if forced to guess I'd say not. At least, not yet.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,117
    edited August 4
    Decent that Smarkets are including independents-who-caucus - that is how they are generally counted in US politics.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    edited August 4
    538 implied assesment of senate odds from https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/senate/?cid=rrpromo

    2.33 GOP
    2.5 NOM
    5.88 DEM

    Betfair actual

    2.16/2.2 GOP
    2.66/2.8 NOM
    5.3/5.9 Dem
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584

    dixiedean said:

    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?

    There were c 470k votes in the Rep primary. Around 260k in the Dem. And about 920k in the abortion vote. Since only registered Party voters can vote in the Primaries in Kansas it suggests a pretty good Independent turnout.
    Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
    I made a quick comparison of the swing between the 2020 Trump vote and the Yes vote and it looked like the swing was largest the more GOP a county was.

    There's certainly a significant number of GOP voters who don't want a total ban on abortion.
    A dreadful generalisation I know but how about young women who are married to blinkered Republicans (etc) but still retain some of their own views!?
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    The #DontPAYUK people know what they are doing and how to hurt the energy firms without hurting themselves

    https://www.tiktok.com/@hellscape_yt/video/7126464205363875078?_t=8UY1xhsNpVl&_r=1

    Step 1 - to keep your credit rating intact you need to raise a complaint.
    Step 2 - you need to keep the complaint open
    Step 3 - eventually this ends up at the Energy Ombudsman and every complaint that gets there costs the energy firm £500

    If that campaign takes off (and it will because if you can't pay your energy bill what else can you do) it's going to be very painful for energy firms
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,117
    Driver said:

    How is Sanders, in particular, still allowed to pretend to be an independent?

    Why is it pretending - he spends half his time shouting at the Democrats? If American politics wasn’t bipolar (ha!) then he would be in the left most electable party. Most Democrats would be a party or 2 to the right.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584
    edited August 4

    dixiedean said:

    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?

    There were c 470k votes in the Rep primary. Around 260k in the Dem. And about 920k in the abortion vote. Since only registered Party voters can vote in the Primaries in Kansas it suggests a pretty good Independent turnout.
    Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
    I made a quick comparison of the swing between the 2020 Trump vote and the Yes vote and it looked like the swing was largest the more GOP a county was.

    There's certainly a significant number of GOP voters who don't want a total ban on abortion.
    Is the issue important enough for them to vote Democrat despite all the other reasons that mean they normally vote Republican?

    Not sure, but if forced to guess I'd say not. At least, not yet.
    Depends on the candidates views? I get the impression that 'the candidate' matters a bit more in American elections than his or her views do here.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127
    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085

    Driver said:

    How is Sanders, in particular, still allowed to pretend to be an independent?

    Why is it pretending - he spends half his time shouting at the Democrats? If American politics wasn’t bipolar (ha!) then he would be in the left most electable party. Most Democrats would be a party or 2 to the right.
    The thing that looks weird about it to my eyes is that he stood to be the Democratic nominee for the Presidency. That would be like Farage being on the ballot for leader of the Conservative party.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385
    eek said:

    The #DontPAYUK people know what they are doing and how to hurt the energy firms without hurting themselves

    https://www.tiktok.com/@hellscape_yt/video/7126464205363875078?_t=8UY1xhsNpVl&_r=1

    Step 1 - to keep your credit rating intact you need to raise a complaint.
    Step 2 - you need to keep the complaint open
    Step 3 - eventually this ends up at the Energy Ombudsman and every complaint that gets there costs the energy firm £500

    If that campaign takes off (and it will because if you can't pay your energy bill what else can you do) it's going to be very painful for energy firms

    No, it's going to be very painful for the vast bulk of ordinary bill payers when the excess cost of dealing with this sort of fraud gets spread on to next year's bills.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/aug/04/white-working-class-fiction-tories-obsessed

    I thought this was interesting.
    It reminded me of an encounter with a couple we got chatting to by the beach at Cawsand a couple of days ago. They must have been in their sixties, they were down for their grandson's passing out ceremony at the nearby naval academy. They would have been labelled "white working class" by PB Tories - she was a retired school dinner lady. Like us they live in South London - from his accent I would guess he was a native Londoner, she was from Sunderland. She did most of the talking, but he got very animated talking about Brixton, telling us it was his favourite place because "the whole world is there." You can't generalise about people and their opinions, they will always be more interesting than the tabloid clichés.

    I'm intrigued by the implication there is something even less interesting than a tabloid cliche. What would that be? Perhaps the Hundred?
    PB discussions about Scotland?
    Bit harsh on Stuart Dickson. His spats with Leon liven things up.
    He certainly "annoys the right people".
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,258
    Useful idiocy from Amnesty International:

    https://twitter.com/amnesty/status/1555102962623594496
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,808

    dixiedean said:

    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?

    There were c 470k votes in the Rep primary. Around 260k in the Dem. And about 920k in the abortion vote. Since only registered Party voters can vote in the Primaries in Kansas it suggests a pretty good Independent turnout.
    Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
    I made a quick comparison of the swing between the 2020 Trump vote and the Yes vote and it looked like the swing was largest the more GOP a county was.

    There's certainly a significant number of GOP voters who don't want a total ban on abortion.
    Is the issue important enough for them to vote Democrat despite all the other reasons that mean they normally vote Republican?

    Not sure, but if forced to guess I'd say not. At least, not yet.
    I think it is Independents who are the key (and they are a much bigger group than either registered Dems or Reps). In particular Republican leaning Indys. Here is some research on who they are and how they think.

    https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2019/03/14/political-independents-who-they-are-what-they-think/
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,078
    maaarsh said:

    eek said:

    The #DontPAYUK people know what they are doing and how to hurt the energy firms without hurting themselves

    https://www.tiktok.com/@hellscape_yt/video/7126464205363875078?_t=8UY1xhsNpVl&_r=1

    Step 1 - to keep your credit rating intact you need to raise a complaint.
    Step 2 - you need to keep the complaint open
    Step 3 - eventually this ends up at the Energy Ombudsman and every complaint that gets there costs the energy firm £500

    If that campaign takes off (and it will because if you can't pay your energy bill what else can you do) it's going to be very painful for energy firms

    No, it's going to be very painful for the vast bulk of ordinary bill payers when the excess cost of dealing with this sort of fraud gets spread on to next year's bills.
    Which means that the poorest will be proportionally the hardest hit.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    It does look likely that the first worst thing that Truss is likely to do is to give a promotion to Braverman.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,682

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,078

    dixiedean said:

    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?

    There were c 470k votes in the Rep primary. Around 260k in the Dem. And about 920k in the abortion vote. Since only registered Party voters can vote in the Primaries in Kansas it suggests a pretty good Independent turnout.
    Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
    I made a quick comparison of the swing between the 2020 Trump vote and the Yes vote and it looked like the swing was largest the more GOP a county was.

    There's certainly a significant number of GOP voters who don't want a total ban on abortion.
    Is the issue important enough for them to vote Democrat despite all the other reasons that mean they normally vote Republican?

    Not sure, but if forced to guess I'd say not. At least, not yet.
    I'd say it depends upon what the abortion choices are.

    If its an outright ban more will switch to Dem than if its, for example, a restriction to 13 weeks.

    It will be interesting to see if the anti-abortionists overreach and go for maximalist restrictions.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.

    Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 1,742

    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?

    The Dems often suffer from lower turnout in the mid terms , they managed to come out though in 2020 as Trump was in the WH .

    The abortion issue is though likely to help their turnout, and the January 6 hearings will have some bearing as the Dems will hope to force GOP candidates to go on record as to where they stand .

    The mid terms seem to be less a record on Biden which is somewhat unusual and the polling shows his job approval isn’t make or break for their chances .

    The Manchin Schumer deal would help if it got through Congress but a lot will depend on inflation and the overall state of the economy .

    It’s pretty clear though that the SCOTUS decision was a gift to the Dems , even though there was a lot of outrage behind the scenes the Dems were celebrating as it puts the GOP in a difficult position and could prove crucial in the more competitive states.

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,726

    The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.

    Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.

    I'm normally CON but neither Liz or Rishi fill me with any confidence particularly on CPI. I am not going to vote LAB though!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    The one I can't understand, if it comes to pass is why Kwarteng will be getting the Chancellory. Don't think I've heard him once coming out to bat for Truss on the morning rounds or anything like that tbh.
    Yes I know about their alledged history, but I'd expect a future chancellor to be a bit more visible. Simon Clarke will be a bit miffed though I guess business will be a promotion for him.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584

    The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.

    Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.

    Are you joining someone (who shall remain nameless) as a secret PC supporter?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Mr. Pubman, I will wait and see how the winner acts before deciding for certain, and I'm unlikely to vote Labour either, but right now I'll be very open to persuasion from other parties.
  • DriverDriver Posts: 478

    Driver said:

    How is Sanders, in particular, still allowed to pretend to be an independent?

    Why is it pretending - he spends half his time shouting at the Democrats? If American politics wasn’t bipolar (ha!) then he would be in the left most electable party. Most Democrats would be a party or 2 to the right.
    How many times has he tried to get the Democrat presidential nomination?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,385

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
    Japan was a very poor choice. There are several other currencies which didn't turn on the printing taps during Covid and have significantly lower inflation now. All choices come with pros and cons and the bill have to be paid somewhere so perhaps the way things are playing out is the least worst options.

    But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 59,145
    Old King Cole, if that's Plaid Cymru then no, as I oppose these Balkanising parties and also don't live in Wales.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    edited August 4

    dixiedean said:

    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?

    There were c 470k votes in the Rep primary. Around 260k in the Dem. And about 920k in the abortion vote. Since only registered Party voters can vote in the Primaries in Kansas it suggests a pretty good Independent turnout.
    Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
    I made a quick comparison of the swing between the 2020 Trump vote and the Yes vote and it looked like the swing was largest the more GOP a county was.

    There's certainly a significant number of GOP voters who don't want a total ban on abortion.
    Is the issue important enough for them to vote Democrat despite all the other reasons that mean they normally vote Republican?

    Not sure, but if forced to guess I'd say not. At least, not yet.
    I'd say it depends upon what the abortion choices are.

    If its an outright ban more will switch to Dem than if its, for example, a restriction to 13 weeks.

    It will be interesting to see if the anti-abortionists overreach and go for maximalist restrictions.
    90-98% or so of abortions are cat C or D with ~ 2-10% being for truly medical reasons in the UK I think. The argument always seems to swing round to the 2-10% or so - mother dieing, rape, genetic abnormality whereas the 90-98% are "choice".
    There's a huge amount of "lives to save" (If you want the anti-abortion lobby's words) whilst still allowing strictly medically neccesary abortions.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584

    The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.

    Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.

    I'm normally CON but neither Liz or Rishi fill me with any confidence particularly on CPI. I am not going to vote LAB though!
    See my comments to Mr Dancer a few minutes ago! Although I wouldn't have thought you'd have the opportunity!
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,795

    Useful idiocy from Amnesty International:

    https://twitter.com/amnesty/status/1555102962623594496

    I don't actually have much of a problem with that, if the evidence is real and *if* it is backed up with similar mentions of the far more numerous Russian crimes. The associated article is here:
    https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/08/ukraine-ukrainian-fighting-tactics-endanger-civilians/

    I would note, however, that in Ukraine the line between 'civilian' and 'soldier' might be somewhat blurred. In addition, if the front lines are in, or near a settlement that the population has not left, it becomes rather hard not to organise strikes from within that settlement - unless you cede it to the enemy.

    It's be good to know what information sources they are using, as it does feed into Russia's claims. Though it doesn't explain why Russia finds it necessary to hit hospitals and schools in western Ukraine.

    The first article on the front page of their website is the following, which seems much more balanced, though I might quibble with some of it:
    https://www.amnesty.org.uk/protect-civilians-ukraine

    But on its own, that tweet looks like something that Corbyn could have written...
  • vikvik Posts: 157
    Somewhat related to this thread, there has been a significant recent movement in the Generic Congressional vote in favour of the Democrats, and Republicans are low leading by only +0.3 in the RealClearPolitics tracker:
    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2022-generic-congressional-vote-7361.html

    Some of the recent movements in the polls from individual polling firms are really amazing. E.g. Insider Advantage last month had Republicans +8 ahead. They are now only +1 ahead in their latest poll.
    Another example: Monmouth had Republicans +2 ahead in their poll at the end of June. Their latest poll now has Democrats +3 ahead.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
    Japan was a very poor choice. There are several other currencies which didn't turn on the printing taps during Covid and have significantly lower inflation now. All choices come with pros and cons and the bill have to be paid somewhere so perhaps the way things are playing out is the least worst options.

    But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
    Who on earth appointed Bailey ?

    One look at his FCA job should have been disqualificating. Just seems there's a merry-go-round of top state jobs once you reach a certain level no matter how atrocious your performance in the previous job.

    Ken Clarke should have been brought in.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584

    Old King Cole, if that's Plaid Cymru then no, as I oppose these Balkanising parties and also don't live in Wales.

    A Saxon Dragon then? I think the East Anglian kings used it as a symbol.

  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,808
    edited August 4
    Are we all expecting 50 base points today, then?
    And are we in agreement on that? I'd like to see a full percent. But 75 would be OK as politically acceptable.
    I fear we may get a 25 however.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085
    Pulpstar said:

    dixiedean said:

    I wonder, how significant was the Kansas vote on abortion yesterday? One feature of American elections is the relatively low turnout; if a lot of previously non-voters were repelled by Trumps attitude to the attack on the Capitol, might they turn out and give a different result to that normally expected?

    There were c 470k votes in the Rep primary. Around 260k in the Dem. And about 920k in the abortion vote. Since only registered Party voters can vote in the Primaries in Kansas it suggests a pretty good Independent turnout.
    Also notable the Rep. total vote significantly higher that the Yes vote (376k).
    I made a quick comparison of the swing between the 2020 Trump vote and the Yes vote and it looked like the swing was largest the more GOP a county was.

    There's certainly a significant number of GOP voters who don't want a total ban on abortion.
    Is the issue important enough for them to vote Democrat despite all the other reasons that mean they normally vote Republican?

    Not sure, but if forced to guess I'd say not. At least, not yet.
    I'd say it depends upon what the abortion choices are.

    If its an outright ban more will switch to Dem than if its, for example, a restriction to 13 weeks.

    It will be interesting to see if the anti-abortionists overreach and go for maximalist restrictions.
    90-98% or so of abortions are cat C or D with ~ 2-10% being for truly medical reasons in the UK I think. The argument always seems to swing round to the 2-10% or so - mother dieing, rape, genetic abnormality whereas the 90-98% are "choice".
    There's a huge amount of "lives to save" (If you want the anti-abortion lobby's words) whilst still allowing strictly medically neccesary abortions.
    What seems to happen in jurisdictions where abortion is only available if strictly medically necessary is that doctors are very reluctant to put themselves at risk of having their judgement tested in a courtroom, and so many strictly medically necessary abortions don't occur and women die.

    Those are the cases that prompted the legalisation of abortion in Ireland.

    Politically, though, it does mean you can get very close to a 100% abortion ban without having to argue for a 100% abortion ban.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,282
    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
    Japan was a very poor choice. There are several other currencies which didn't turn on the printing taps during Covid and have significantly lower inflation now. All choices come with pros and cons and the bill have to be paid somewhere so perhaps the way things are playing out is the least worst options.

    But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
    I think Bailey was generally considered a non-entity when he was hired. There weren't many obvious alternatives though.

    The oil price is still higher than it was at the start of the year but wheat prices appear to be back where they were pre-crisis. I suppose those blips will continue to feed into prices for some time,
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,821

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    In that clip Braverman says that Truss wants to keep the BoE independent, but then goes on to say "there are degrees of independence". Not really. Only in the same way that there are degrees of stupidity, I guess.
  • Useful idiocy from Amnesty International:

    https://twitter.com/amnesty/status/1555102962623594496

    WTF? How the hell does Amnesty expect Ukraine to be defending its towns and cities?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,808
    Ha ha. Found this hilarious. A PRC cyber attack on Taiwan.

    "On Wednesday unidentified actors also allegedly targeted 7-Eleven convenience stores, making all in-store televisions across the island display a message accusing Pelosi of being a “warmonger”. The text was written in simplified Chinese, used in mainland China."

    Firstly. They target 7-11. Secondly. They use a script precious few can read, and everyone despises.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    Some good news for Biden with historical approval comparisons, he's overtaken Carter and Truman at the same point of his presidency.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 1,726

    The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.

    Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.

    I'm normally CON but neither Liz or Rishi fill me with any confidence particularly on CPI. I am not going to vote LAB though!
    See my comments to Mr Dancer a few minutes ago! Although I wouldn't have thought you'd have the opportunity!
    I'm not planning to move to Wales yet. Although I may open negotiations with Big G soon to rent a room in his large house if CPI takes away all of my wealth 😡
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284

    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
    Japan was a very poor choice. There are several other currencies which didn't turn on the printing taps during Covid and have significantly lower inflation now. All choices come with pros and cons and the bill have to be paid somewhere so perhaps the way things are playing out is the least worst options.

    But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
    I think Bailey was generally considered a non-entity when he was hired. There weren't many obvious alternatives though.

    The issue with the Bank of England job is that there are so few plausible jobs beneath it - it's almost "Buggin's Turn". Once you've made it to the head of FCA chances are you are next BoE head because there is nowhere else to recruit you from.

    At least the Met can pick from the head of 40 other Constabularies
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,350

    The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.

    Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.

    A write-in for Barry Gardiner?
  • Goodness me Matt Zarb-Cousin is actually insane isn’t he?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,808
    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
    Japan was a very poor choice. There are several other currencies which didn't turn on the printing taps during Covid and have significantly lower inflation now. All choices come with pros and cons and the bill have to be paid somewhere so perhaps the way things are playing out is the least worst options.

    But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
    I think Bailey was generally considered a non-entity when he was hired. There weren't many obvious alternatives though.

    The issue with the Bank of England job is that there are so few plausible jobs beneath it - it's almost "Buggin's Turn". Once you've made it to the head of FCA chances are you are next BoE head because there is nowhere else to recruit you from.

    At least the Met can pick from the head of 40 other Constabularies
    Mark Carney?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,584
    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
    Japan was a very poor choice. There are several other currencies which didn't turn on the printing taps during Covid and have significantly lower inflation now. All choices come with pros and cons and the bill have to be paid somewhere so perhaps the way things are playing out is the least worst options.

    But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
    I think Bailey was generally considered a non-entity when he was hired. There weren't many obvious alternatives though.

    The issue with the Bank of England job is that there are so few plausible jobs beneath it - it's almost "Buggin's Turn". Once you've made it to the head of FCA chances are you are next BoE head because there is nowhere else to recruit you from.

    At least the Met can pick from the head of 40 other Constabularies
    On which side of the argument are you? Are you holding up the Met as an example of inspired leadership?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 9,127
    dixiedean said:

    Are we all expecting 50 base points today, then?
    And are we in agreement on that? I'd like to see a full percent. But 75 would be OK as politically acceptable.
    I fear we may get a 25 however.

    I expect 50bp and would be surprised if they did more today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102

    The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.

    Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.

    Hence as I said the Tories should have kept Boris.

    Instead they will end up with Truss, who is basically Boris without the charisma
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 1,717
    Pulpstar said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
    Japan was a very poor choice. There are several other currencies which didn't turn on the printing taps during Covid and have significantly lower inflation now. All choices come with pros and cons and the bill have to be paid somewhere so perhaps the way things are playing out is the least worst options.

    But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
    Who on earth appointed Bailey ?

    One look at his FCA job should have been disqualificating. Just seems there's a merry-go-round of top state jobs once you reach a certain level no matter how atrocious your performance in the previous job.

    Ken Clarke should have been brought in.
    Bailey epitomises cronyism at it’s worst.
  • https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    In that clip Braverman says that Truss wants to keep the BoE independent, but then goes on to say "there are degrees of independence". Not really. Only in the same way that there are degrees of stupidity, I guess.
    Of course there are degrees of independence, if you desire to make it binary then the BoE has never been independent.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,282
    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
    Japan was a very poor choice. There are several other currencies which didn't turn on the printing taps during Covid and have significantly lower inflation now. All choices come with pros and cons and the bill have to be paid somewhere so perhaps the way things are playing out is the least worst options.

    But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
    I think Bailey was generally considered a non-entity when he was hired. There weren't many obvious alternatives though.

    The issue with the Bank of England job is that there are so few plausible jobs beneath it - it's almost "Buggin's Turn". Once you've made it to the head of FCA chances are you are next BoE head because there is nowhere else to recruit you from.

    At least the Met can pick from the head of 40 other Constabularies
    Well there are deputy governors, chief economists etc. It's a big organisation. I can't believe it should be that difficult to find the requisite talent.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,402
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
    Japan was a very poor choice. There are several other currencies which didn't turn on the printing taps during Covid and have significantly lower inflation now. All choices come with pros and cons and the bill have to be paid somewhere so perhaps the way things are playing out is the least worst options.

    But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
    I think Bailey was generally considered a non-entity when he was hired. There weren't many obvious alternatives though.

    The issue with the Bank of England job is that there are so few plausible jobs beneath it - it's almost "Buggin's Turn". Once you've made it to the head of FCA chances are you are next BoE head because there is nowhere else to recruit you from.

    At least the Met can pick from the head of 40 other Constabularies
    Mark Carney?
    I don't get why Bailey is getting attacked when Carney was even worse. The BoE kept rates low at a time when things were going reasonably well. The first thing he did was say that rates wouldn't go up as long as unemployment remained above 7%. Of course, unemployment fell through the floor and they carried on anyway. Rates should have risen slowly from 2013 through to 2017/2018. We should have gone into COVID with the base rate at around 3%.
  • eekeek Posts: 20,284
    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
    Japan was a very poor choice. There are several other currencies which didn't turn on the printing taps during Covid and have significantly lower inflation now. All choices come with pros and cons and the bill have to be paid somewhere so perhaps the way things are playing out is the least worst options.

    But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
    I think Bailey was generally considered a non-entity when he was hired. There weren't many obvious alternatives though.

    The issue with the Bank of England job is that there are so few plausible jobs beneath it - it's almost "Buggin's Turn". Once you've made it to the head of FCA chances are you are next BoE head because there is nowhere else to recruit you from.

    At least the Met can pick from the head of 40 other Constabularies
    Mark Carney?
    Brought in because no-one immediately below Sir Mervyn King was deemed good enough
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085
    dixiedean said:

    Are we all expecting 50 base points today, then?
    And are we in agreement on that? I'd like to see a full percent. But 75 would be OK as politically acceptable.
    I fear we may get a 25 however.

    Everyone is expecting 50 basis points. 25 would be a shocker given how it has been trailed.

    I reckon they can't possibly go higher than 50 basis points because they're too worried about admitting how far behind the curve they are.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,402

    dixiedean said:

    Are we all expecting 50 base points today, then?
    And are we in agreement on that? I'd like to see a full percent. But 75 would be OK as politically acceptable.
    I fear we may get a 25 however.

    Everyone is expecting 50 basis points. 25 would be a shocker given how it has been trailed.

    I reckon they can't possibly go higher than 50 basis points because they're too worried about admitting how far behind the curve they are.
    It's an interesting one for the media. The cynic in me thinks that those with power in the media will have quite big mortgages and therefore won't want to hold the BoE's feet to the fire.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 2,567
    dixiedean said:

    Ha ha. Found this hilarious. A PRC cyber attack on Taiwan.

    "On Wednesday unidentified actors also allegedly targeted 7-Eleven convenience stores, making all in-store televisions across the island display a message accusing Pelosi of being a “warmonger”. The text was written in simplified Chinese, used in mainland China."

    Firstly. They target 7-11. Secondly. They use a script precious few can read, and everyone despises.

    Do most Taiwanese people have problems reading simplified Chinese?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,282
    eek said:

    dixiedean said:

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1555101755050020865?t=UI-GEtigUAMXWg2VYtcLSg&s=19

    Braverman gives perhaps the definitive performance of "politician talking about something they don't understand in the slightest". Still, I am intrigued by the idea that the BOJ, which has failed to deliver on its inflation mandate for decades and now owns more than half of Japan's public debt, offers a model for the BOE to follow. I have a feeling that UK economic policy is about to get very "interesting".

    Braverman is just riffing on Liz Truss's campaign pledges — review the Bank of England's mandate in some unspecified way; think about copying the Bank of Japan in some aspect or other. Braverman is struggling because Liz Truss is just throwing out slogans and not policies.
    Japan was a very poor choice. There are several other currencies which didn't turn on the printing taps during Covid and have significantly lower inflation now. All choices come with pros and cons and the bill have to be paid somewhere so perhaps the way things are playing out is the least worst options.

    But foolish to believe you can respond to a temporary reduction in the velocity of money by a permanent increase in supply, and then when velocity reverts just mouth off about Ukraine and deny any responsibility like Bailey wants to do.
    I think Bailey was generally considered a non-entity when he was hired. There weren't many obvious alternatives though.

    The issue with the Bank of England job is that there are so few plausible jobs beneath it - it's almost "Buggin's Turn". Once you've made it to the head of FCA chances are you are next BoE head because there is nowhere else to recruit you from.

    At least the Met can pick from the head of 40 other Constabularies
    Mark Carney?
    Brought in because no-one immediately below Sir Mervyn King was deemed good enough
    David Blanchflower, who is a bit eccentric, called King a tyrant. Whether that explains a dearth of talent in the BofE I don't know.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 9,085
    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are we all expecting 50 base points today, then?
    And are we in agreement on that? I'd like to see a full percent. But 75 would be OK as politically acceptable.
    I fear we may get a 25 however.

    Everyone is expecting 50 basis points. 25 would be a shocker given how it has been trailed.

    I reckon they can't possibly go higher than 50 basis points because they're too worried about admitting how far behind the curve they are.
    It's an interesting one for the media. The cynic in me thinks that those with power in the media will have quite big mortgages and therefore won't want to hold the BoE's feet to the fire.
    The line from the Guardian is to make a big thing of how the BoE hasn't increased rates by more than 25 basis points since it was given its independence.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 712
    edited August 4
    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    Ha ha. Found this hilarious. A PRC cyber attack on Taiwan.

    "On Wednesday unidentified actors also allegedly targeted 7-Eleven convenience stores, making all in-store televisions across the island display a message accusing Pelosi of being a “warmonger”. The text was written in simplified Chinese, used in mainland China."

    Firstly. They target 7-11. Secondly. They use a script precious few can read, and everyone despises.

    Do most Taiwanese people have problems reading simplified Chinese?
    From having a read simplified Chinese was developed fairly recently post 1949 by the PRC, so no surprise if the island of Taiwan wasn't keen to follow. Hong Kong and Macau don't use simplified characters either.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,808

    dixiedean said:

    Are we all expecting 50 base points today, then?
    And are we in agreement on that? I'd like to see a full percent. But 75 would be OK as politically acceptable.
    I fear we may get a 25 however.

    Everyone is expecting 50 basis points. 25 would be a shocker given how it has been trailed.

    I reckon they can't possibly go higher than 50 basis points because they're too worried about admitting how far behind the curve they are.
    What's interesting about this trailing is that they are widely predicted to have two more 50 point rises to follow. That makes little sense. If that's the correct figure in three months, why not now?
    Other than for the reason you suggest.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 6,282

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are we all expecting 50 base points today, then?
    And are we in agreement on that? I'd like to see a full percent. But 75 would be OK as politically acceptable.
    I fear we may get a 25 however.

    Everyone is expecting 50 basis points. 25 would be a shocker given how it has been trailed.

    I reckon they can't possibly go higher than 50 basis points because they're too worried about admitting how far behind the curve they are.
    It's an interesting one for the media. The cynic in me thinks that those with power in the media will have quite big mortgages and therefore won't want to hold the BoE's feet to the fire.
    The line from the Guardian is to make a big thing of how the BoE hasn't increased rates by more than 25 basis points since it was given its independence.
    Why would they? There hasn't been an inflation spike.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,402

    tlg86 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are we all expecting 50 base points today, then?
    And are we in agreement on that? I'd like to see a full percent. But 75 would be OK as politically acceptable.
    I fear we may get a 25 however.

    Everyone is expecting 50 basis points. 25 would be a shocker given how it has been trailed.

    I reckon they can't possibly go higher than 50 basis points because they're too worried about admitting how far behind the curve they are.
    It's an interesting one for the media. The cynic in me thinks that those with power in the media will have quite big mortgages and therefore won't want to hold the BoE's feet to the fire.
    The line from the Guardian is to make a big thing of how the BoE hasn't increased rates by more than 25 basis points since it was given its independence.
    That in itself isn't that surprising. I have no formal economic training, but it seems entirely sensible that rates should be more likely to fall quickly as that's what happens when there's trouble (financial crash, COVID, etc.).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,808
    edited August 4
    kamski said:

    dixiedean said:

    Ha ha. Found this hilarious. A PRC cyber attack on Taiwan.

    "On Wednesday unidentified actors also allegedly targeted 7-Eleven convenience stores, making all in-store televisions across the island display a message accusing Pelosi of being a “warmonger”. The text was written in simplified Chinese, used in mainland China."

    Firstly. They target 7-11. Secondly. They use a script precious few can read, and everyone despises.

    Do most Taiwanese people have problems reading simplified Chinese?
    Yes and no.
    The highly educated and well travelled won't. Less likely to be grabbing a 7-11 hot dog and tea egg though
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 101,102

    HYUFD said:

    The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.

    Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.

    Hence as I said the Tories should have kept Boris.

    Instead they will end up with Truss, who is basically Boris without the charisma
    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    In terms of charisma and political talent, Boris remains the outstanding figure of this batch of Conservatives. Unless his successor manages him very carefullly, he is going to oushine them as King over the water. And Truss, who is basically Norfolk's third best Boris Johnson tribute act, looks like she has most of his downsides with few of his skills.

    I can see why Boris in a dress is attractive to some Conservatives, but electing her would be doubling down on the choice of 2019, which really looks like a mistake.

    Because, ultimately, Boris had to go. Look what happened in the May elections; whoever was the not-Conservative candidate did well. His conduct was well below the standards the public expect from their leaders. On top of all the individual scandals, the fact that he has left his party choosing between Tweedlebankers and Tweedlebonkers shows what a terrible leader he has been.

    Right now, the Conservatives don't seem to have any good moves, only differently bad ones. The same could well be true of the country, looking at our economic and European situations. And as in chess, that can be traced back to choices made, perhaps unwittingly, several moves ago.

    But like it or not, there is still a need to choose the best move, even if it's not very good.
    In the South and London Boris did not do so well in May but in the North and Midlands the Tory vote held up reasonably well.

    Policy wise Truss is little different to Boris except a bit more Thatcherite economically with a more leftwing past.

    Yes there was the issue of Boris' partygate fine etc but the candidate put up against Truss by Tory MPs, Sunak, was also fined.

    There is a chance Truss not only gets a bounce but sustains it, more likely however I fear she leads the party to a bigger defeat and worse general election result than Boris would have got
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,150
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are we all expecting 50 base points today, then?
    And are we in agreement on that? I'd like to see a full percent. But 75 would be OK as politically acceptable.
    I fear we may get a 25 however.

    Everyone is expecting 50 basis points. 25 would be a shocker given how it has been trailed.

    I reckon they can't possibly go higher than 50 basis points because they're too worried about admitting how far behind the curve they are.
    What's interesting about this trailing is that they are widely predicted to have two more 50 point rises to follow. That makes little sense. If that's the correct figure in three months, why not now?
    Other than for the reason you suggest.
    Indeed, it would be better to do two 75bp rises. Hopefully we get one today.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 1,174

    HYUFD said:

    The main thing I'm taking from this contest is that while I had stated I wouldn't vote for the Conservatives if they retained the jester as PM, it's increasingly possible, based on the campaigns to date, I won't be voting for them anyway.

    Sunak's desperate thrashing about is not edifying. If Truss does win we shall see what she does in office, but I may end up either voting elsewhere or decorating my ballot paper with a splendid drawing of a dragon.

    Hence as I said the Tories should have kept Boris.

    Instead they will end up with Truss, who is basically Boris without the charisma
    Up to a point, Lord Copper.

    In terms of charisma and political talent, Boris remains the outstanding figure of this batch of Conservatives. Unless his successor manages him very carefullly, he is going to oushine them as King over the water. And Truss, who is basically Norfolk's third best Boris Johnson tribute act, looks like she has most of his downsides with few of his skills.

    I can see why Boris in a dress is attractive to some Conservatives, but electing her would be doubling down on the choice of 2019, which really looks like a mistake.

    Because, ultimately, Boris had to go. Look what happened in the May elections; whoever was the not-Conservative candidate did well. His conduct was well below the standards the public expect from their leaders. On top of all the individual scandals, the fact that he has left his party choosing between Tweedlebankers and Tweedlebonkers shows what a terrible leader he has been.

    Right now, the Conservatives don't seem to have any good moves, only differently bad ones. The same could well be true of the country, looking at our economic and European situations. And as in chess, that can be traced back to choices made, perhaps unwittingly, several moves ago.

    But like it or not, there is still a need to choose the best move, even if it's not very good.
    I don't think the local elections are considered enough in why Johnson had to go - I live in St Albans and the Tories have hovered between 20 - 30 councillors for the last 20 years; they now have 4. They lost seat after seat to the Lib Dems. I think we were an extreme example, but many ex local councillors must have been quite unhappy with the national party and Johnson going into the locals.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,544
    You've got to be kidding. Do you know how much that would fuck up consumers with mortgages, especially lower-income ones who now also face the energy price cap being reviewed four times a year not twice? On a wider macro front, it would send consumer confidence into a tailspin.

    The current inflation rate is a mixture of demand and supply issues. You can't fix the supply issues by interest rate rises and, if you want to target the demand side issues, you are better off targeting the wealthy who have benefited from large asset inflation / wage increases, largely caused by the QE programme.

    One other point. The BoE this week loosened the lending criteria for mortgages. You could read that either way as a signal to what they will do with rates

    MaxPB said:

    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    Are we all expecting 50 base points today, then?
    And are we in agreement on that? I'd like to see a full percent. But 75 would be OK as politically acceptable.
    I fear we may get a 25 however.

    Everyone is expecting 50 basis points. 25 would be a shocker given how it has been trailed.

    I reckon they can't possibly go higher than 50 basis points because they're too worried about admitting how far behind the curve they are.
    What's interesting about this trailing is that they are widely predicted to have two more 50 point rises to follow. That makes little sense. If that's the correct figure in three months, why not now?
    Other than for the reason you suggest.
    Indeed, it would be better to do two 75bp rises. Hopefully we get one today.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 71,279
    What's amazing is how -ve real interest rates are going to be for the forseeable.
    Anyone holding substantial cash needs their head checking.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 52,691
    Pulpstar said:

    What's amazing is how -ve real interest rates are going to be for the forseeable.
    Anyone holding substantial cash needs their head checking.

    It is just incredible isn't it.

    After today's rise - even if it was a whacking 1% we still have a overall real rate of ≈ -8 or worse.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,694
    Pulpstar said:

    What's amazing is how -ve real interest rates are going to be for the forseeable.
    Anyone holding substantial cash needs their head checking.

    Maybe but what other asset class isn't in danger of crashing? Keep a balance and that includes cash.
This discussion has been closed.