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Is the British public the new Édith Piaf? – politicalbetting.com
Is the British public the new Édith Piaf? – politicalbetting.com
To Boris Johnson, Non, je ne regrette rien. https://t.co/siPP7p2Go7
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Re Dover:
Demand for passport control is highly variable. During certain time of the year there is enormous demand for it - because there are tens of thousands of people going on (or coming back from) holidays. There are lots of cars, and each car has many occupants.
At other times, there are just a few tens of lorries (each with just a driver) requiring minimal time and effort.
And this is a much greater issue at Dover than at Heathrow or Luton. People travelling by car to the Continent are much more likely to have kids with them, than those flying.
Governments don't deal well with highly variable things. It would be expensive to have 50 passport control officers there 365 days a year... but getting trained staff there during just the busiest times is far from easy. (Especially as those busiest times are the times when passport officers probably want to go on holiday with their own families.)
HM Government should propose a plan like Nexus/Sentri in the US, which handles land crossings to Mexico and Canada. Basically, you pay a fee, do a background check and register your vehicle. When you are due to cross the border, you tell them who will be in your vehicle, and then you pretty much drive straight through.
Of course, they have a man looking into the vehicle as you go through, and they pull out vehicles where they think there might be a mismatch between who is registered and who is actually travelling. And - of course - there's jail time for all involved if it turned out you lied.
In general, this works very well. People with families do the work ahead of time, and cross quickly. Those who have criminal records or have not, will sit in queues for a couple of hours.
Don't see quite how still having the support of Tory voters buggers owt?
And they have done so by (a) having lots of vocational training for 16 to 21 year olds who aren't going to University, and (b) having largely contributory benefits schemes, so that young people essentially have to choose between working and training. There is no "don't work, and still recieve money" option.
And what sort of work do they do? Particularly in Germany?
How do we employ the "bulk" of our population if not in warehouses, fast food, low-end construction, retail and distribution?
Labour leads by 6%.
Westminster Voting Intention (24 July):
Labour 40% (-4)
Conservative 34% (-1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (+3)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (+1)
Reform UK 3% (–)
Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 20-21 July
https://t.co/Ew1SV6Acy4 https://t.co/RRyVSxWqab
Put it this way Road pricing won't be designed to be cheaper than petrol duty...
Fundamentally our education system isn't fit for the 21st century. It's very good for people who can and people who will, but not very good for those who can't and especially bad for people who won't. The UK is one of very few mug countries that has universal benefits without significant contributions required to qualify and a very large and complex system of in working benefits to lower the marginal cost of labour to get the can'ts and won'ts into low productivity jobs.
So on the one hand they don't get paid enough and need to be subsidised with in working benefits and on the other side we've incentivised companies to hire these low productivity people over investing in capital by lowering the marginal cost of labour.
It's a pincer movement that has wrecked the UK economy for 20+ years.
As for the amount of tax revenue, if it replacing fuel duty, then it’s no extra burden overall, albeit there will be winners and losers.
Amazon delivery drivers, for example, would likely be losers. But rural drivers, winners.
@MaxPB is closer to the issue.
The question asked relates in no sense to one's personal politics. It is asking what the facts will be about the Tory MPs at an unspecified future time.
A rational and balanced approach to the answer, despite the silliness of the question, should, if all things were rational and equal, see different groups give broadly similar answers.
It doesn't. All groups slant the answers to their personal preferences.
And stands as good example of the worthlessness of the exercise of trying to ask the public questions which test their objectivity.
Red wall tracker tomorrow might be interesting
32% prefer Sunak to Starmer, 33% Truss to Starmer so seems for now Sunak puts more undecideds behind Starmer
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1551600768679018496?s=20&t=bWdCKVG0WIiNNwzijUShzA
Not much use saying to Joe Bloggs well just goto work later if his job requires him to be there for 9am and won't budge. In my case the reason it cost so much is I would have been on the m25 in morning rush hour so it attracted the maximum price which from memory was around £1 a mile. Nor did I have any sensible option but to drive as a train would turn it into a 2 hour commute
1.53 Liz Truss 65%
2.98 Rishi Sunak 34%
Next Conservative leader
1.51 Liz Truss 66%
2.94 Rishi Sunak 34%
It's no fun now he's away
Aint no sunshine now he's gone
So let's hope it's not too long
Before he comes back out to play
NOT
Employers would need to allow commuters to change their patterns, or pay the real cost of the congestion they are imposing.
It means Joe Bloggs Widget Co Ltd. will realise that he can pay his workers 5% less if he runs the plant from 6:30am to 2:30pm, and therefore no-one will need to pay road pricing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPamKOPabFc
LAB: 40% (-4)
CON: 34% (-1)
LDEM: 12% (+3)
GRN: 5% (-)
via @RedfieldWilton, 24 Jul
Chgs. w/ 21 Jul
https://twitter.com/sapinker/status/1551546737428500481
Unilateral European Nuclear Disarmament is a bold direction.
Last week's R&W number was clearly an outlier and if you want to spend your life micro analysing the detail of every poll, go for it. I've got better things to do.
I'd add one other: German banking is a mess in many ways, but it's a hell of a lot easier for small and medium sized companies to access bank funding than in the UK. It's next to impossible for £2m year revenue companies to get bank funding in the UK, because banks would much rather lend to Joe Schmoo for him to spend on his credit card.
In Germany and Switzerland, by contrast getting bank funding for smaller companies is - if not easy - a hell of a lot easier. This means that smaller companies find it a lot easier to invest in capital equipment than they do in the UK.
Now... remind me, have either of Sunak or Truss actually mentioned any of these issues?
Simon Calder's brilliant demolition job of the "let's just blame the French for all the delays" line deserves to be repeated as nauseam and ad infinitum.
There are some uncomfortable truths in that couple of minutes - yes, perhaps the French could have had more staff but ultimately it's our decision to leave the EU and he consequences of that decision in this aspect which is ultimately responsible for the scenes we saw at the weekend.
The curiousity for this observer is cruise ship passengers, for example, don't seem to have any of these problems. Yes, we are asked to take some form of official ID with us if we go onshore but the longest wait is getting through security to check we aren't trying to smuggle any alcohol on board - the cruise lines would much prefer we paid their exorbitant prices.
"yes, perhaps the French could have had more staff" is the end of the conversation.
Governments have to respond to hoe people vote, not the other way around.
And both countries have massive Mittelstand manufacturing industries: tens of thousands of family owned manufacturers that do specialized things. These firms take people with existing decent vocational training and bring people on as apprentices to train them.
On World Bank numbers (https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NV.IND.MANF.ZS?locations=DE-GB), German manufacturing is almost 2.5x the level of the UK - $10,000 vs $4,000 per person.
Now, manufacturing isn't everything (of course). But it is far more likely to take people who aren't from university than investment banking.
£30m is less than half of one working day's gross EU membership fee. Its peanuts, but the existing booths weren't staffed.
But even assuming it is French under-resourcing, it was one of the benefits of the EU that it promoted and enforced rules-based collaboration - the EU wouldn’t exist without it.
We now need to come to a bespoke - or more bespoke - agreement with France. Which will cost.
b) the phenom stretched well into “retirement” ages.
Once Education was a county level responsibility, now it is controlled from Whitehall or Holyrood and this centralisation has become another source of sclerosis. There is some good work being done by some think-tanks, but few politicians seem interested, let alone committed to building a consensus for positive change. Largely irrelevent old battles on school ratings or even 11+ selection are still being fought on both right and left while the real questions: teacher autonomy, breadth of curriculum, starting languages at infant or junior level, early stage STEM and all the rest of it are simply put in the "too difficult" box.
Not that they were planning on getting rid of fuel duties.
But you do know that there are non-motorway routes, right? See France with the autoroutes vs the regular highways.
This is something that works for a regulated asset base model, like Heathrow, or Network Rail in charging train paths to TOCs and FOCs, but not your average Joe.
It's far more likely that we'll get a tax surcharge on electricity charging points or an enhanced annual road tax based upon total mileage in the same way you read a gas meter or do a self-assessment tax return to HMRC.
As an aside, Mr Pinker has disabled replies.
But either way it's moot. EU membership was costing us £350mn a week, gross, per week. About a billion per month net.
Extending article 50 came with about a €9 billion fee attached.
Transition game with about a €11 billion fee attached.
If Brexit means investing £30mn as a one off to expand capacity and that's it, then just do it already, if it's actually needed. What a bargain compared to membership and transition fees.
And if it's not been done that isn't the fault of Brexit voters.
The US has a great many toll roads. It also has "FastTrak" lanes on many freeways which you can pay to access. Basically, you have the choice between paying $5 for FastTrak and getting home 20 minutes earlier, or just lumping it and saving the money.
France has motorways you pay for, and those you don't. Switzerland breaks down road tax between "with motorway access" (more expensive) and "without". (Which also cleverly raises revenue from tourists and foreign hauliers.)
Germany has road pricing for commercial vehicles on many Autobahn.
The UK has the Dartford Bridge and the M6 bypass (I think).
Or do we mean some kind of sophisticated GPS based every road priced in real time?
Regardless of current affiliation we'd do a much better job than any of the lot on offer.
Are you writing a fiction/faction about Gobekli Tepi or branching out into popular archeology?
Next up from our debate panel is Vikas Hathim, a 46-year-old accounts assistant who's supporting Liz Truss. He used to be a Tory Party member but is now an undecided voter.
On both candidates
Vikas says his main reason for backing Truss - and not Rishi Sunak, whose family are of Indian descent - is he "doesn't think the UK is ready for an Indian prime minister".
He's of Indian background himself and says he's worried about enduring racism in the country.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-62273292
Just adapt to the fact we voted and get the infrastructure and staffing required.
Manly Sea Eagles, the Sydney-based rugby league team, are facing a revolt from players who are refusing to wear a rainbow-themed Pride jersey celebrating inclusivity for their game against Sydney Roosters on Thursday.
The Daily Telegraph based in Sydney reported that seven players have said they will boycott the NRL game due to their religious beliefs about homosexuality, while Des Hasler, the coach, was said to have been supportive of their decision not to play.
Ian Roberts, the club’s former forward, who became the first rugby league player to come out as gay in 1995, described his disappointment at the episode.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/seven-manly-sea-eagles-players-to-boycott-nrl-match-against-sydney-roosters-over-pride-jersey-vkh8mdzbz
Sunak seems very incurious really, for someone of his intellect.
I think Truss is more of a policy wonk under the hood, albeit a batshit one.
2.
If the Board ran for office, we’d quickly split into two or three camps - call them political parties, if you like.
I certainly would not want to be in the same “party” as @BartholomewRoberts.
The original tweeter of those claims is somebody known for misrepresenting polls.
Of course fuel duty pays for mammothly more than roads. Oh well, cover it out of some other general taxation instead.
Very odd imo but, hey, I thought it was odd that Trump got more than 5% in either POTUS election!
You know it makes sense.
So it looks like the UK will have to appeal to countries like India and the Philippines to help plug the gap .
The NHS staffing crisis is very worrying given how much of a backlog has built up . No 10 would like to dupe people into thinking this was just due to covid but this isn’t the case . There were big problems before that and covid has just been the final straw.
I think there was a big argument on what fuel duty pays for on here, and the general consensus in the end was that it kind of did essentially cover the various costs of driving, INCLUDING congestion, road accidents, and pollution.