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Penny now drops to third in the betting – politicalbetting.com
Penny now drops to third in the betting – politicalbetting.com
As MPs prepare for the third round of voting the above shows how punters are seeing the race.
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Here on the Bucks/Oxon borders I think it must be around 36c but there is a bit of a breeze. I have certainly been in hotter places before but it is certainly very toasty for this country.
I am remarkably impressed by how well our new build (4 years old) house has coped. I closed everything at just after 9am today. Downstairs is about 23c and upstairs about 25c. When you step in from outside it feels air conditioned. All that insulation designed to keep the house warm is paying off now too. Our house is rendered white which I think must help too.
(Still, heads you win, tails you lose, I guess.)
As for fertiliser and CO2, can Robert enlighten us on what Californian startup is going to become the Apple/Tesla/Google of food? Surely there’s mahoosive scope for highly energy and resource efficient vertical farming, closed loop even. Plenty experimenting with it, who’s going to be the trillion dollar company because of it? Because someone will.
2.04 Rishi Sunak 49%
3.7 Liz Truss 27%
4.9 Penny Mordaunt 20%
22 Kemi Badenoch 5%
150 Tom Tugendhat
250 Dominic Raab
Next Conservative leader
2.06 Rishi Sunak 49%
3.75 Liz Truss 27%
4.8 Penny Mordaunt 21%
21 Kemi Badenoch 5%
120 Tom Tugendhat
To be in final two
1.03 Rishi Sunak 97%
1.82 Liz Truss 55%
2 Penny Mordaunt 50%
11 Kemi Badenoch 9%
100 Tom Tugendhat
In case we get annoyed over how long it's taking the British Conservatives to choose a new leader, their Canadian counterparts have taken it to a new level.
They dumped their leader, Erin O'Toole by 73 to 45 in a vote on February 2nd and the new leader won't be in place until September 10th. The clear favourite seems to be Pierre Pollievre who is either a true Conservative or a libertarian depending on who you cite.
He's from Calgary in Alberta so came through the Reform Party and the Canadian Alliance.
On Mike's last paragraph, Badenoch may well do better than expected but it's hard to see how she can do well enough to leapfrog over Truss and Mordaunt.
Of course, this is a volatile race and things will jerk around, so expect surprises!
If ignorant people like you are calling the levy which pays for the warm homes discount for the vulnerable etc a green levy by mistake, that doesn't make it a green levy being used to fund new solar panels or wind farms etc
Runways melt at Luton, Brize Norton
When Sri Lanka's foreign currency shortages became a serious problem in early 2021, the government tried to limit them by banning imports of chemical fertiliser.
It told farmers to use locally sourced organic fertilisers instead.
This led to widespread crop failure. Sri Lanka had to supplement its food stocks from abroad, which made its foreign currency shortage even worse.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-61028138
First, I've invented a new word "heatbernate" - meaning to seek rest and shelter from periods of extreme hear.
Second, my prediction for tonight is Sunak first, Badenoch second, Mordaunt third and Truss fourth.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-launches-biggest-electricity-market-reform-in-a-generation
It also needs to win swing voters. Not ban deficits, promote cryptocurrency, and re-legalise various types of guns. Amongst other things.
Although it's all moved so fast and so often it could be anyone really.
A bold prediction.
I've seen some very interesting companies in the sector - one of which produces LEDs tuned to photosynthesis. That is, they only output light in the wavelengths that plants can use for growing.
One heatbernates to escape the hiburnrate?
This is 1986, and the Get More for your Monergy campaign.
Not a vintage advertising performance. Piggy wiggies and the big bad weather man.
But with a nice slogan: Reducing draughts means reducing overdrafts.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9PsK2dcMyA
There is nothing new under the sun.
Just been in my conservatory, and the new aircon has run that up to 40C whilst keeping the kitchen at 23C on low. Seems to work.
But at least this'll get rid of the notion that PM's are given a personal mandate from the country.
We'll see.
Plus the French are stuck with another 4 and 3/4 years of President Pinocchio.
He told fellow Conservative MPs "some colleagues have suggested that I should step aside, that I should fall in behind someone else, that I've run a good campaign and can leave with my head held high".
"Some have suggested I could leave with a job as well," he said, but insisted "it is not for me to make that decision - it is for you".
"Were I to withdraw now then somebody else would be eliminated tonight without the opportunity to make their case further.”
He also condemned what he saw as the contest's "infighting, the sniping, the blue on blue, the attacks and the smears". "We do not need this, now or ever."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-62191267
NEW Common Sense Group chairman Sir John Hayes comes out for Kemi Badenoch in the Conservative Party Leadership race
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Given her strength with the members, is Badenoch the value bet at the moment?
https://solarfoods.com
In which the money quote is:
“But the most boneheaded, bizarre mistake that the Sri Lankan government made was a disastrous plan to shift the entire country to organic agriculture. In April of 2021 the government banned the import and use of pesticides and synthetic fertilizers. This devastated Sri Lankan agriculture, since, as it turns out, fertilizer is really really important. Production of tea — Sri Lanka’s main cash crop — fell by 18% in a year. Production of rice — the main food crop — fell by even more.
This debacle did several things. First, by weakening tax revenues, it made the government less capable of repaying debt denominated in foreign currencies. Second, by weakening the economy, it gave Sri Lankans a reason to move their money overseas, which encouraged capital flight and put downward pressure on the rupee. Third, by reducing food output, it forced Sri Lanka to import more food just as foreign exchange was becoming scarce. And finally, because agricultural products are a substantial percent of Sri Lanka’s exports, the devastation of export revenue made it much harder for Sri Lanka to get the foreign exchange it needed to A) keep paying for imported food and fuel, and
Sri Lanka made many policy mistakes & was already in a difficult position & then the government decided to something completely insane which made everything so much worse it tipped them over the edge into a full blown crisis.
Eventually, but nowhere near yet.
I am guessing they weren't inspired by Thomas Paine.
Beavers to be legally protected from harm in England from October
Under new legislation, it will be an offence to deliberately capture, kill, disturb or injure beavers in England or damage where the animals breed and rest
A five-year government trial on the river Otter in south-west England concluded that beavers had brought “a wealth of benefits to the local area and ecology”.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/2329105-beavers-to-be-legally-protected-from-harm-in-england-from-october/
Truss over-hyped as a final two candidate. Enough MPs have seen the shit show of her debate and now running away from another. "Naaaah......."
And Sunak might lend enough votes to Penny as he thinks he can beat her, but it is not the disaster of PM Truss if he is proved wrong.
https://www.dw.com/en/netherlands-dutch-parties-to-form-government-9-months-after-vote/a-60109396
Either win - my bet comes in, or win - the best candidate wins and we get the best candidate to be PM. Either way I'd be happy. 👍
TV debates for the members votes, yes, as not all will be able to attend hustings; but at this stage it was a complete waste of time.
Unless, of course, the winner plans a snap election in October (hint: they don't).
Sunak: 105 (+4)
Mordaunt: 90 (+7)
Truss: 78 (+14)
Badenoch: 54 (+4)
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Tugendhat: 29 (-3)
https://twitter.com/patrickjfl/status/1549058073154691078
Almost everyone else on this site seems to be anti-Truss for one reason or another it seems.
In terms of energy overall, per ton of produce it's significantly lower than what is required in standard agriculture.
Look, for example, how rubbish were solar cells a couple of decades back.
https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/charts/evolution-of-solar-pv-module-cost-by-data-source-1970-2020
If the incentive is there, which it seems to be, a lot of money will get thrown at the problem.
locusts and the death of first-bornsheatwaves.She's my second best betting result, though. Only because I saw value when she drifted out. Badenoch is still my best, even though I sold most of my stake early on.
*good/bad depending on whether she did more or what I liked or more that I disliked
But I still want it to be Sunak or Badenoch (ideally both serve in cabinet).
Also, remember that over 100 MPs will eventually have to change their vote from what it was on Thursday. They may know who their current pick is, but they might not have a full ranked order of precedence. They are also allowed to Change their Minds.
Sunak: 103 (+2)
Mordaunt: 88 (+5)
Truss: 82 (+18)
Badenoch: 58 (+9)
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Tugendhat: 25 (-7)
We've got 27 Braverman votes to allocate, I gave one third to Badenoch and the rest to Truss. I also assumed a few MPs will be giving up on Tugendhat, say 5 to Mordaunt and 2 to Sunak.
Frankly I've given up on caring if the Tories win or lose the next election, since I'm not supporting them at the minute. So I'm not judging the leadership race based upon that, if I was then I wouldn't back Truss.
As it stands my first preference for the leadership race is Rishi wins, I collect my winnings, then I'll probably vote Lib Dem at the next election.
My second preference for the race is Truss wins, I lose my bet, but I'll probably vote Tory at the next election.
Has @TSE seen this, I wonder?
Not just the sovereign, but a surprisingly wide range of assorted relatives.
Westminster Voting Intention (17 July):
Labour 42% (–)
Conservative 32% (+1)
Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
Green 5% (–)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 3% (-2)
Other 2% (+1)
Changes +/- 10 July
https://t.co/gk5SesdhCE https://t.co/FCsmqkjt44
Boredom reigns
. No idea but... does your pc have enough memory and a graphics card? If you do have a graphics card, have you plugged your monitor into the right hole?
We shall have a Rishi
On a little dishy
We shall have a Rishi
When the vote is known.