Truss is probably who Labour and the LDs least fear. However whoever wins has to perform a careful balancing act of holding the Leave backing redwall seats that won Boris his majority without losing Remain seats in the South which stayed Tory in 2019 to keep Corbyn out.
Leadership elections though are not just about picking a candidate your opponents fear but also someone who represents your party's core convictions
I don’t think holding together the Brexit coalition is as hard as you think now that we have actually brexited
The Blue Remainers want a constructive and mature relationship with the EU, with a resolution to the NI protocol. That is entirely positive without bending over
The Red Wall cares more about levelling up and not compromising on freedom of movement. That approach means we can’t have free trade because the EU is obsessive about linking freedom of movement with economics for political reasons. But it doesn’t preclude other deeper relationships
"Earlier this month, I went out with a few journalists I hadn’t met before. Ninety or so seconds of pleasantries passed before it became a verbal tempest about our industry: who is unoriginal, who writes like a klutz, who is there on account of his old man. The chat was lacking in humility, decorum and consideration for others. I can’t wait to do it again. After the unexpected formalities of America, it was a kind of exhalation."
'Boris Johnson is threatening to set an “early test” for his successor by ensuring they have to face two early byelections as the new Tory leader, the Observer has been told.
The prime minister is planning to elevate at least two current MPs to the House of Lords well before the next election, triggering two contests that will test public support for whoever replaces him in Downing Street.
It is understood that he wants to hand peerages to Nigel Adams, a cabinet office minister and one of his closest allies, and culture secretary Nadine Dorries [...]'
Good. Get Dorries well away from the her destroy-the-BBC mission.
Peers can sit in cabinet ...
You think Nadine gets a Cabinet seat with ANY of the final five?
Nah....
I hear Penny Mordaunt will make Nadine Dorries ambassador to Afghanistan.
As Afghanistan is against women having an education, Nadine should fit in just fine.
I shall be braving 40 degree temperatures today to go to a theme park. Because I'm an idiot.
Five Flags Over Pismo?
Flags being Spain, Russia, Mexico, "California Republic", USA
Put CR in italics, as it was essentially a PR stunt. But it DID create the Great Bear Flag which is one of the best state AND global flags flapping around.
Also made John C. Fremont "the Pathfinder" a national celebrity, leading directly to his nomination as the first presidential candidate of then-new Republican Party in 1856.
You might think I've gone mad but Truss could be great for the stock market. You'd need a real hack in at the BoE if she was in charge though so there wasn't a run on the pound
The quid pro quo of her position is that the BoE would have to jack up interest rates sharpish.
You might think I've gone mad but Truss could be great for the stock market. You'd need a real hack in at the BoE if she was in charge though so there wasn't a run on the pound
The quid pro quo of her position is that the BoE would have to jack up interest rates sharpish.
She basically said this in the debate.
It would be good to see Truss v Rishi specifically on “the economy”.
1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.
If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.
Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.
June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.
1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.
It was for three months and nearly 18C average: In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).
The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.
Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.
Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.
There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.
I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?
Who?
Quite a few folk ... including some Tories. One of us was denying the need for net zero policies only a couple of hours ago, which is pretty much the same thing.
Edit: I have just realised yo might have thought my comment was aimed at you specifically. Not at all; apologies if it was misconstrued as such. It was an allusion to TimT's final comment, before your post (and again not aimed at him but the situation he mentions).
To be fair, you can accept global warming whilst also opposing net zero policies if you come to slightly depressing conclusion that it's not going to work with populations in China, Africa and India continuing to grow.
I'm sympathetic to that position, but still think going for net zero is worth it for a bunch of other reasons (primarily cheap, secure energy provision and air pollution in our cities).
From what the most extreme activists say about the scale of the problem it is probably already far too late to meaningfully solve it. ...
This depends what you mean by meaningfully solve it.
The choices we make now will make the difference between ending up with +1.5C, +2.5C or +3.5C of warming.
It may well be that the impacts with +1.5C will be bad enough that we'll wish we'd done more earlier, and it won't feel like we solved it to a meaningful extent, but it would still be a whole lot better than with +2.5 or +3.5.
Beware the argument that it's too late now.
This is why, even though I'll advocate doing as much as we can as soon as we can, I'm feeling a bit more hopeful about this problem. I think we're pretty close to a technological and economic tipping point where +3.5C becomes quite unlikely. This is not something I was confident about some years ago.
Penny Mordaunt followed by a 2023 election is bad news for both oppo parties. She’ll be an effective campaigner but possibly ineffective administrator. So an election during a honeymoon period hot on the heels of a major political reset = Tory majority
I think that's right: I think she could well benefit from an end of the war in Ukraine (and therefore fuel and food prices falling), combined with a generally cheerful disposition and a vague sense of patriotism. (Plus the fact she doesn't appear to be a wingnut.)
But.
There's that increasingly nagging doubt that she'd be pretty rubbish at the job.
It would make 2023/4 like 1992, and 2028/9 like 1997.
Going to be weirdly windy Tuesday. Normally when it's hot everything is pond still
It's supposed to be pretty much pond still where I am. Swapsies?
Here..
Firstly: Thermals.
Secondly: Netweather? Really?
Met office has it slightly cooler at 38 but with 33 mph gusts ! Like a fan oven lol
As I said, thermals will be causing a lot of localised gusts. They can get pretty strong and of course, depending on where you are in relation to the centre of the thermal, those gusts can be in any direction.
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
Most places get by with two elected chambers, but the Commons would need to think very carefully what kind of chamber it wants if it replaces the Lords.
Given how governments dislike scrutiny, I'd suspect they'd be more in favour of unicameralism.
Of comparable western nations to ours only the US, Australia, Japan and Italy have fully directly elected second chambers
(Italy's is not fully elected, as you also have Senators for Life.)
Looking at it from the other side, Denmark and Sweden are the only unicameral countries I can think of in Western Europe.
Greece, Norway, Finland and Portugal are unicameral too and of western nations outside Europe, New Zealand and Israel and South Korea are also unicameral
You are absolutely correct: I had forgotten those.
Interestingly, Norway only got rid of its second chamber recently.
With that said... pretty much any developed democratic country with a population of more 20 million has two chambers, *except* South Korea:
US Canada Australia France Italy UK Japan Spain Germany
There’s another vote on Monday, yes? Is it actually safe to hold a vote at Westminster?
Is there not a confidence vote as well as the quarter finals of the Conservative Party World Cup? Would be funny if the government accidentally collapsed because some folk thought "fuck that, I'm staying where it's cool".
I’m serious. A friend just texted the instructions from her employer:
"buy the groceries you need, put tinfoil on your windows and close the curtains.”
“don't even bother going for a walk. you will not only suffer but you'll let heat into the house too”
Jesus Christ
Why do you say that? Sound advice
If you think its great your EMPLOYER tells you to not go for a walk then I differ in the way I would like society to operate - Its chit advice anyway - isolate yourself basically- great!
Have you ever experienced a SERIOUS heat wave? And why assume that the EMPLOYER is giving orders, as opposed to ADVICE?
If you wish to celebrate your personal liberty during the impending heat emergency, then throw the doors & windows open wide, go out for a long jog, and come home to enjoy the pot roast that's been cooking all day.
Knock yourself out - perhaps literally.
This is so over the top
Sounds like you have NOT previously experienced serious heat wave.
1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.
If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.
Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.
June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.
1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.
It was for three months and nearly 18C average: In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).
The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.
Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.
Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.
There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.
I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?
Who?
Quite a few folk ... including some Tories. One of us was denying the need for net zero policies only a couple of hours ago, which is pretty much the same thing.
Edit: I have just realised yo might have thought my comment was aimed at you specifically. Not at all; apologies if it was misconstrued as such. It was an allusion to TimT's final comment, before your post (and again not aimed at him but the situation he mentions).
To be fair, you can accept global warming whilst also opposing net zero policies if you come to slightly depressing conclusion that it's not going to work with populations in China, Africa and India continuing to grow.
I'm sympathetic to that position, but still think going for net zero is worth it for a bunch of other reasons (primarily cheap, secure energy provision and air pollution in our cities).
From what the most extreme activists say about the scale of the problem it is probably already far too late to meaningfully solve it. ...
This depends what you mean by meaningfully solve it.
The choices we make now will make the difference between ending up with +1.5C, +2.5C or +3.5C of warming.
It may well be that the impacts with +1.5C will be bad enough that we'll wish we'd done more earlier, and it won't feel like we solved it to a meaningful extent, but it would still be a whole lot better than with +2.5 or +3.5.
Beware the argument that it's too late now.
This is why, even though I'll advocate doing as much as we can as soon as we can, I'm feeling a bit more hopeful about this problem. I think we're pretty close to a technological and economic tipping point where +3.5C becomes quite unlikely. This is not something I was confident about some years ago.
1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.
If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.
Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.
June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.
1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.
It was for three months and nearly 18C average: In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).
The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.
Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.
Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.
There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.
I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?
Who?
Quite a few folk ... including some Tories. One of us was denying the need for net zero policies only a couple of hours ago, which is pretty much the same thing.
Edit: I have just realised yo might have thought my comment was aimed at you specifically. Not at all; apologies if it was misconstrued as such. It was an allusion to TimT's final comment, before your post (and again not aimed at him but the situation he mentions).
To be fair, you can accept global warming whilst also opposing net zero policies if you come to slightly depressing conclusion that it's not going to work with populations in China, Africa and India continuing to grow.
I'm sympathetic to that position, but still think going for net zero is worth it for a bunch of other reasons (primarily cheap, secure energy provision and air pollution in our cities).
From what the most extreme activists say about the scale of the problem it is probably already far too late to meaningfully solve it. ...
This depends what you mean by meaningfully solve it.
The choices we make now will make the difference between ending up with +1.5C, +2.5C or +3.5C of warming.
It may well be that the impacts with +1.5C will be bad enough that we'll wish we'd done more earlier, and it won't feel like we solved it to a meaningful extent, but it would still be a whole lot better than with +2.5 or +3.5.
Beware the argument that it's too late now.
This is why, even though I'll advocate doing as much as we can as soon as we can, I'm feeling a bit more hopeful about this problem. I think we're pretty close to a technological and economic tipping point where +3.5C becomes quite unlikely. This is not something I was confident about some years ago.
Yes, I think we’ll avert complete disaster. The fact is that old carbon intensive technology looks just that: old. Once you have cleaner more cost effective technologies available it’s just laziness and inertia to attempt to stick with the old ones.
I do think heatwaves are the best trigger for people to take things seriously. They are a direct, physical hit of “too hot”. When you are too hot you will do anything to cool down.
There’s another vote on Monday, yes? Is it actually safe to hold a vote at Westminster?
Is there not a confidence vote as well as the quarter finals of the Conservative Party World Cup? Would be funny if the government accidentally collapsed because some folk thought "fuck that, I'm staying where it's cool".
I’m serious. A friend just texted the instructions from her employer:
"buy the groceries you need, put tinfoil on your windows and close the curtains.”
“don't even bother going for a walk. you will not only suffer but you'll let heat into the house too”
Jesus Christ
Why do you say that? Sound advice
If you think its great your EMPLOYER tells you to not go for a walk then I differ in the way I would like society to operate - Its chit advice anyway - isolate yourself basically- great!
Have you ever experienced a SERIOUS heat wave? And why assume that the EMPLOYER is giving orders, as opposed to ADVICE?
If you wish to celebrate your personal liberty during the impending heat emergency, then throw the doors & windows open wide, go out for a long jog, and come home to enjoy the pot roast that's been cooking all day.
Knock yourself out - perhaps literally.
This is so over the top
Sounds like you have NOT previously experienced serious heat wave.
course i have i have been to Greece ,Dubai , even lived in 1976! - Honestly the nanny wardens we have today
Let’s face it, London is unbearable above 30 degrees.
35 degrees? Unliveable. 40 degrees? Unimaginable.
It’s 29 degrees here in New York and too sticky to want to spend more than 15 minutes in direct sunlight.
Tuesday's projected daytime temp and humidity in London = 37°C and 24% In New York on Tuesday: 33°C and 42% (It's 29°C and 62% humidity in NY today I see)
My American friend, who lives in Islington/Camden borders, ordered massive aircon units that vent outside some years ago.
Everyone thought her quite mad.
She’s laughing now.
She's creating climate change with her air conditioners.
Hope she's using them intelligently, ie things that which can be sensibly done to keep the cost and energy use down has been done.
One of my energy reducing enthusiast friends, who has built a huge near-passive house in Edinburgh with an indoor swimming poor, says his American wife looks at him with a "why are you bothering me with this?" expression when he talks about saving on the energy. Very stereotypically American - we're well off so let's ignore the consequences. He has a very good story about what happened to a neighbour's Planning Permission when an underground oil pipe was not where the Local Authority thought it was.
Was talking to my T yesterday who uses air con to keep her many (7, I think now) dogs happy in the summer in the sun-lounge, and she commented that if she leaves it running whilst out during the day at her new cafe-bar it currently puts her electricity up from around £3.50 per day to £5 (says the smart meter). They may need that for about 3-4 weeks, as it has a huge ventilation fan installed.
Mine will hopefully cost nothing to run due to the solar. Time will tell.
One interesting question that might shed light on constitutional arrangements is — which country seems to do best at balancing efficacy in government with representation of the people?
Let’s face it, London is unbearable above 30 degrees.
35 degrees? Unliveable. 40 degrees? Unimaginable.
It’s 29 degrees here in New York and too sticky to want to spend more than 15 minutes in direct sunlight.
Tuesday's projected daytime temp and humidity in London = 37°C and 24% In New York on Tuesday: 33°C and 42% (It's 29°C and 62% humidity in NY today I see)
It's the humidity that gets you.
Yes and I’ll be stuck inside with aircon at full blast.
There’s another vote on Monday, yes? Is it actually safe to hold a vote at Westminster?
Is there not a confidence vote as well as the quarter finals of the Conservative Party World Cup? Would be funny if the government accidentally collapsed because some folk thought "fuck that, I'm staying where it's cool".
I’m serious. A friend just texted the instructions from her employer:
"buy the groceries you need, put tinfoil on your windows and close the curtains.”
“don't even bother going for a walk. you will not only suffer but you'll let heat into the house too”
Jesus Christ
Why do you say that? Sound advice
If you think its great your EMPLOYER tells you to not go for a walk then I differ in the way I would like society to operate - Its chit advice anyway - isolate yourself basically- great!
Have you ever experienced a SERIOUS heat wave? And why assume that the EMPLOYER is giving orders, as opposed to ADVICE?
If you wish to celebrate your personal liberty during the impending heat emergency, then throw the doors & windows open wide, go out for a long jog, and come home to enjoy the pot roast that's been cooking all day.
Knock yourself out - perhaps literally.
This is so over the top
Sounds like you have NOT previously experienced serious heat wave.
cause i have i have been to Greece ,Dubai , even lived in 1976! - Honestly the nanny wardens we have today
It's one thing IF you are in place that regularly experiences high temps AND you have A/C.
Different if you don't.
Taking sensible precautions is sensible. Ignoring such for ideological reasons is not.
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
That’s a feature not a bug.
I thought a good Conservative like you would be opposed to government legislating all the time
Penny Mordaunt followed by a 2023 election is bad news for both oppo parties. She’ll be an effective campaigner but possibly ineffective administrator. So an election during a honeymoon period hot on the heels of a major political reset = Tory majority
I think that's right: I think she could well benefit from an end of the war in Ukraine (and therefore fuel and food prices falling), combined with a generally cheerful disposition and a vague sense of patriotism. (Plus the fact she doesn't appear to be a wingnut.)
But.
There's that increasingly nagging doubt that she'd be pretty rubbish at the job.
It would make 2023/4 like 1992, and 2028/9 like 1997.
I've been unwinding a bit of my Mordaunt today.
It doesn't feel like she's evens anymore.
Hmm it's still a game of two halves
What happens next. Well either by vote or withdrawal Tommy T heads out. The vote left in is Bravermans and that's going to go disproportionately to Truss, or at least won't change the status quo too much. So who does Tom T endorse ? Either Penny or Rishi I think. Perhaps Rishi after last night. Penny has enough support to still come second as Truss did not do enough to win the non erg votes to get through to the final two. Badenoch though good didn't show MPs enough to dissuade from heading likely disproportionately over to Davos candidate Rishi Rich. So we go to members with a lipsided lead for Rishi over Penny. I still think she's ahead mind, Rishi will have all the Boris fans against him and that's still the bulk of the membership. So after all is said and done, Penny wins perhaps something like 55-45.
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
That’s a feature not a bug.
I thought a good Conservative like you would be opposed to government legislating all the time
A good Conservative like me believes if it ain't broke don't fix it, the Lords works effectively as a revising chamber, if it was mainly elected it would move towards becoming a blocking chamber
I shall be braving 40 degree temperatures today to go to a theme park. Because I'm an idiot.
Five Flags Over Pismo?
Flags being Spain, Russia, Mexico, "California Republic", USA
Put CR in italics, as it was essentially a PR stunt. But it DID create the Great Bear Flag which is one of the best state AND global flags flapping around.
Also made John C. Fremont "the Pathfinder" a national celebrity, leading directly to his nomination as the first presidential candidate of then-new Republican Party in 1856.
Six Flags Magic Mountain.
Worst, I have been unable to persuade any of my son's friends to join us, so I will be enduring roller coasters in unimaginable heat.
The only redeeming feature is that the conditions will be so extreme, that the queues will hopefully be short.
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
Not just in the long run. Nobody who suggests an elected HoL has really thought it out. It’s a bit like those who want an English parliament.
That’s not entirely fair. It is certainly the case that an elected House of Lords would not play the subservient role it does today.
The problem is many political commentators start with form (elected/appointed) not function
We polled a representative sample of 4,500 people and used MrP to model it onto seats - with awareness of candidates factored in.
In 76% of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, Rishi Sunak has the highest net 'good PM' rating (1/6)
.. I’m probably coming around to Rishi being the most competent
Yup, I think that's true and the answer to Mike's hypothetical.
I don't see any candidate who could hope to lead the Conservatives to anything more than opposition with most Parliamentary seats. Rishi has the best chance of doing that; Badenoch might, but may equally prove a catastrophe.
The others would struggle to stave off a Labour majority. Truss would be particularly disastrous but happily for Con supporters that boat appears to have sailed, empty of cargo.
Tugenhat would be awkward for the LDs but he'd be anathema to a large portion of his Party so it doesn't matter; t'aint gonna happen.
I’m seeing Rishi as PM, Mordaunt Home, Truss gone. Badenoch difficult - I’d want her at Education because I think she’d be fantastic but she might want something more senior. Tug probably justifies a junior cabinet role.
Mordaunt as Home Secretary will destroy any future hopes she might entertain. An absolute graveyard that post.
Agree. It's to be avoided. Genuinely think whoever wins they'll ask Patel to stay for that reason. Or else give it to Kemi to take the shine off her.
My god it's big. And not as heavy as the delivery man's complaints would imply.
But the size is basically a traditional dishwasher sliced in 2 vertically. HWD = 3ft x 2ft x 1ft. With rounded corners. And the unit itself can live outside.
But the statement is 1.4kW of power for 3.2kW of heating, and 1.5kW of power for 4kW of cooling. And a CoP (Coefficient of Power) of about 2.5, which is modest compared to an ASHP but far better then direct.
Canada's population has increased during the last 20,000 years or so, as the climate there warmed. Would British Columbia be better, or worse off, net, were its climate more like its neighbor to the south, Washington state? Would Ontario be better, or worse off, net, were its climate more like its neighbor to the south, New York state? And so on.
(But if global warming is your religion (or part of it), as it is for many people, I apologize.)
Some of the things that sustains the historically high (global) population are: - modern industrial farming - global supply chains - advanced food preservation techniques
One of the consequences of climate change could be the shifting of suitable habitats for certain crops. If the wheat-growing prairies fail it's no short-term solution to note that places at different latitudes are suddenly getting the suitable weather. The means of production and distribution are not in the right places. It's not useful if the Lower Yenisei suddenly becomes great for wheat production because it'll take huge infra spending before it can actually start feeding the world. And in the meantime, failing crops in the places that are well connected to world markets means we've essentially kicked away one of the legs of that stool.
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
This is the core of the problem. If the climate changes faster than we can adapt to it, there will be trouble. And we're reliant on other countries, not just us, adapting in order for us to get food on OUR plates. Anyone who thinks it's just a case of deciding to move the farm to another place is living in a transhumance fantasy, totally detached from the real-life difficulties.
Can anyone point to a decent/memorable speech that Kemi Badenoch has ever delivered that would gird my loins and millions of other ordinary voters like myself?
Ditto a policy.
The only person in the Tory party who's ever excited you is George Osborne.
Y'know, the guy who only 2% of the public liked.
Let's hear less about TSE getting excited by George Osborne please, ta.
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
That’s a feature not a bug.
I thought a good Conservative like you would be opposed to government legislating all the time
A good Conservative like me believes if it ain't broke don't fix it, the Lords works effectively as a revising chamber, if it was mainly elected it would move towards becoming a blocking chamber
A fair point although the way people are appointed (do they really need to become Lords for start? ) means it is stuffed with career politicians and hangers-on to them- Woudl be better to appoint from all sections of society and trades
We polled a representative sample of 4,500 people and used MrP to model it onto seats - with awareness of candidates factored in.
In 76% of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, Rishi Sunak has the highest net 'good PM' rating (1/6)
.. I’m probably coming around to Rishi being the most competent
Yup, I think that's true and the answer to Mike's hypothetical.
I don't see any candidate who could hope to lead the Conservatives to anything more than opposition with most Parliamentary seats. Rishi has the best chance of doing that; Badenoch might, but may equally prove a catastrophe.
The others would struggle to stave off a Labour majority. Truss would be particularly disastrous but happily for Con supporters that boat appears to have sailed, empty of cargo.
Tugenhat would be awkward for the LDs but he'd be anathema to a large portion of his Party so it doesn't matter; t'aint gonna happen.
I’m seeing Rishi as PM, Mordaunt Home, Truss gone. Badenoch difficult - I’d want her at Education because I think she’d be fantastic but she might want something more senior. Tug probably justifies a junior cabinet role.
Mordaunt as Home Secretary will destroy any future hopes she might entertain. An absolute graveyard that post.
Gives here the opportunity to prove her ability or lack thereof*
* FWIW I like penny as a person, but PM material, nah.
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
That’s a feature not a bug.
I thought a good Conservative like you would be opposed to government legislating all the time
A good Conservative like me believes if it ain't broke don't fix it, the Lords works effectively as a revising chamber, if it was mainly elected it would move towards becoming a blocking chamber
I believe that the Blair reforms did break it.
I would change it so as to (a) introduce terms, and (b) make it less appointed by the whim of the Prime Minister. FWIW, the Parliament Act - which prevents the Lords from overruling the Commons three times, plus the conventions on Money Bills and on manifesto commitments, should prevent it becoming a blocking chamber.
I shall be braving 40 degree temperatures today to go to a theme park. Because I'm an idiot.
Five Flags Over Pismo?
Flags being Spain, Russia, Mexico, "California Republic", USA
Put CR in italics, as it was essentially a PR stunt. But it DID create the Great Bear Flag which is one of the best state AND global flags flapping around.
Also made John C. Fremont "the Pathfinder" a national celebrity, leading directly to his nomination as the first presidential candidate of then-new Republican Party in 1856.
Six Flags Magic Mountain.
Worst, I have been unable to persuade any of my son's friends to join us, so I will be enduring roller coasters in unimaginable heat.
The only redeeming feature is that the conditions will be so extreme, that the queues will hopefully be short.
Get hats you can lash on to your head. Slap on the sunscreen every half-hour. Locate snow-cone stands.
Tin-foil helmets likely a bit excessive, but would NOT rule 'em out!
So what is the 6th flag? BTW, relative of mine used to live near Jimmy Swaggart's World HQ in BR, LA.
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
Most places get by with two elected chambers, but the Commons would need to think very carefully what kind of chamber it wants if it replaces the Lords.
Given how governments dislike scrutiny, I'd suspect they'd be more in favour of unicameralism.
Of comparable western nations to ours only the US, Australia, Japan and Italy have fully directly elected second chambers
(Italy's is not fully elected, as you also have Senators for Life.)
Looking at it from the other side, Denmark and Sweden are the only unicameral countries I can think of in Western Europe.
Greece, Norway, Finland and Portugal are unicameral too and of western nations outside Europe, New Zealand and Israel and South Korea are also unicameral
You are absolutely correct: I had forgotten those.
Interestingly, Norway only got rid of its second chamber recently.
With that said... pretty much any developed democratic country with a population of more 20 million has two chambers, *except* South Korea:
US Canada Australia France Italy UK Japan Spain Germany
Indeed but of the big nations with second chambers above only the US and Australia, Italy and Japan are mainly elected by voters (plus Brazil looking at less developed big nations).
China has effectively a unicameral parliament in the National People's Congress but much of its power is delegated to a Standing Committee, neither are directly elected by voters
My god it's big. And not as heavy as the delivery man's complaints would imply.
But the size is basically a traditional dishwasher sliced in 2 vertically. HWD = 3ft x 2ft x 1ft. With rounded corners. And the unit itself can live outside.
But the statement is 1.4kW of power for 3.2kW of heating, and 1.5kW of power for 4kW of cooling. And a CoP (Coefficient of Power) of about 2.5, which is modest compared to an ASHP but far better then direct.
Or 14000 BTU in American.
Those are pretty impressive numbers: please keep us in the loop about how well it performs.
Let’s face it, London is unbearable above 30 degrees.
35 degrees? Unliveable. 40 degrees? Unimaginable.
It’s 29 degrees here in New York and too sticky to want to spend more than 15 minutes in direct sunlight.
Tuesday's projected daytime temp and humidity in London = 37°C and 24% In New York on Tuesday: 33°C and 42% (It's 29°C and 62% humidity in NY today I see)
It's the humidity that gets you.
Yes and I’ll be stuck inside with aircon at full blast.
We polled a representative sample of 4,500 people and used MrP to model it onto seats - with awareness of candidates factored in.
In 76% of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, Rishi Sunak has the highest net 'good PM' rating (1/6)
.. I’m probably coming around to Rishi being the most competent
Yup, I think that's true and the answer to Mike's hypothetical.
I don't see any candidate who could hope to lead the Conservatives to anything more than opposition with most Parliamentary seats. Rishi has the best chance of doing that; Badenoch might, but may equally prove a catastrophe.
The others would struggle to stave off a Labour majority. Truss would be particularly disastrous but happily for Con supporters that boat appears to have sailed, empty of cargo.
Tugenhat would be awkward for the LDs but he'd be anathema to a large portion of his Party so it doesn't matter; t'aint gonna happen.
I’m seeing Rishi as PM, Mordaunt Home, Truss gone. Badenoch difficult - I’d want her at Education because I think she’d be fantastic but she might want something more senior. Tug probably justifies a junior cabinet role.
Getting shot of Truss is possible but risky if she is backed by a quarter to a third of the parliamentary party, as each of the top three may be. Whoever is new leader will need to think about party management.
Leadership is about considered risks.
I don’t think she has solid fundamental support. She’d sink into well deserved obscurity on the back benches
There’s another vote on Monday, yes? Is it actually safe to hold a vote at Westminster?
Is there not a confidence vote as well as the quarter finals of the Conservative Party World Cup? Would be funny if the government accidentally collapsed because some folk thought "fuck that, I'm staying where it's cool".
I’m serious. A friend just texted the instructions from her employer:
"buy the groceries you need, put tinfoil on your windows and close the curtains.”
“don't even bother going for a walk. you will not only suffer but you'll let heat into the house too”
Jesus Christ
Why do you say that? Sound advice
If you think its great your EMPLOYER tells you to not go for a walk then I differ in the way I would like society to operate - Its chit advice anyway - isolate yourself basically- great!
Have you ever experienced a SERIOUS heat wave? And why assume that the EMPLOYER is giving orders, as opposed to ADVICE?
If you wish to celebrate your personal liberty during the impending heat emergency, then throw the doors & windows open wide, go out for a long jog, and come home to enjoy the pot roast that's been cooking all day.
Knock yourself out - perhaps literally.
This is so over the top
Sounds like you have NOT previously experienced serious heat wave.
cause i have i have been to Greece ,Dubai , even lived in 1976! - Honestly the nanny wardens we have today
It's one thing IF you are in place that regularly experiences high temps AND you have A/C.
Different if you don't.
Taking sensible precautions is sensible. Ignoring such for ideological reasons is not.
He’s perfectly at liberty to ignore the warnings and go for a 10k run mid afternoon on Tuesday. We’re not in lockdown.
It’s just “we survived the blitz” Facebook boomer vacuousness but applied to the climate.
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
So we should drop net zero and invest in the military?
Penny Mordaunt followed by a 2023 election is bad news for both oppo parties. She’ll be an effective campaigner but possibly ineffective administrator. So an election during a honeymoon period hot on the heels of a major political reset = Tory majority
I think that's right: I think she could well benefit from an end of the war in Ukraine (and therefore fuel and food prices falling), combined with a generally cheerful disposition and a vague sense of patriotism. (Plus the fact she doesn't appear to be a wingnut.)
But.
There's that increasingly nagging doubt that she'd be pretty rubbish at the job.
It would make 2023/4 like 1992, and 2028/9 like 1997.
I've been unwinding a bit of my Mordaunt today.
It doesn't feel like she's evens anymore.
Hmm it's still a game of two halves
What happens next. Well either by vote or withdrawal Tommy T heads out. The vote left in is Bravermans and that's going to go disproportionately to Truss, or at least won't change the status quo too much. So who does Tom T endorse ? Either Penny or Rishi I think. Perhaps Rishi after last night. Penny has enough support to still come second as Truss did not do enough to win the non erg votes to get through to the final two. Badenoch though good didn't show MPs enough to dissuade from heading likely disproportionately over to Davos candidate Rishi Rich. So we go to members with a lipsided lead for Rishi over Penny. I still think she's ahead mind, Rishi will have all the Boris fans against him and that's still the bulk of the membership. So after all is said and done, Penny wins perhaps something like 55-45.
Yes, I said similar earlier and predicted 58:42.
However, the situation is volatile, it's still possible she doesn't make it to the final two, and I want to buy Penny back at a better price later, so I have laid off at 2.1.
I think she has some way still to drift and Rishi will probably go odds on again at some point.
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
That’s a feature not a bug.
I thought a good Conservative like you would be opposed to government legislating all the time
A good Conservative like me believes if it ain't broke don't fix it, the Lords works effectively as a revising chamber, if it was mainly elected it would move towards becoming a blocking chamber
I believe that the Blair reforms did break it.
I would change it so as to (a) introduce terms, and (b) make it less appointed by the whim of the Prime Minister. FWIW, the Parliament Act - which prevents the Lords from overruling the Commons three times, plus the conventions on Money Bills and on manifesto commitments, should prevent it becoming a blocking chamber.
They do for now but if mainly elected the upper house would be more willing to overrule the Commons more than once, especially on non manifesto commitments and in time an elected Senate would seek to block legislation completely and amend the Parliament Act
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
So we should drop net zero and invest in the military?
No, we should lead the way to net zero and work as hard as we can to make sure other countries understand it too. AND invest in the military.
There’s another vote on Monday, yes? Is it actually safe to hold a vote at Westminster?
Is there not a confidence vote as well as the quarter finals of the Conservative Party World Cup? Would be funny if the government accidentally collapsed because some folk thought "fuck that, I'm staying where it's cool".
I’m serious. A friend just texted the instructions from her employer:
"buy the groceries you need, put tinfoil on your windows and close the curtains.”
“don't even bother going for a walk. you will not only suffer but you'll let heat into the house too”
Jesus Christ
Why do you say that? Sound advice
If you think its great your EMPLOYER tells you to not go for a walk then I differ in the way I would like society to operate - Its chit advice anyway - isolate yourself basically- great!
Have you ever experienced a SERIOUS heat wave? And why assume that the EMPLOYER is giving orders, as opposed to ADVICE?
If you wish to celebrate your personal liberty during the impending heat emergency, then throw the doors & windows open wide, go out for a long jog, and come home to enjoy the pot roast that's been cooking all day.
Knock yourself out - perhaps literally.
This is so over the top
Sounds like you have NOT previously experienced serious heat wave.
cause i have i have been to Greece ,Dubai , even lived in 1976! - Honestly the nanny wardens we have today
It's one thing IF you are in place that regularly experiences high temps AND you have A/C.
Different if you don't.
Taking sensible precautions is sensible. Ignoring such for ideological reasons is not.
He’s perfectly at liberty to ignore the warnings and go for a 10k run mid afternoon on Tuesday. We’re not in lockdown.
It’s just “we survived the blitz” Facebook boomer vacuousness but applied to the climate.
and you are just smug exaggeration (turned a walk into a 10K run ) for effect along with turning the weather into climate??? I am not a boomer as well so got that wrong as well . TimS - A 10K run is a lot harder than a walk - Do you know this?
1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.
If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.
Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.
June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.
1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.
It was for three months and nearly 18C average: In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).
The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.
Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.
Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.
There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.
I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?
Who?
Quite a few folk ... including some Tories. One of us was denying the need for net zero policies only a couple of hours ago, which is pretty much the same thing.
Edit: I have just realised yo might have thought my comment was aimed at you specifically. Not at all; apologies if it was misconstrued as such. It was an allusion to TimT's final comment, before your post (and again not aimed at him but the situation he mentions).
To be fair, you can accept global warming whilst also opposing net zero policies if you come to slightly depressing conclusion that it's not going to work with populations in China, Africa and India continuing to grow.
I'm sympathetic to that position, but still think going for net zero is worth it for a bunch of other reasons (primarily cheap, secure energy provision and air pollution in our cities).
From what the most extreme activists say about the scale of the problem it is probably already far too late to meaningfully solve it. ...
This depends what you mean by meaningfully solve it.
The choices we make now will make the difference between ending up with +1.5C, +2.5C or +3.5C of warming.
It may well be that the impacts with +1.5C will be bad enough that we'll wish we'd done more earlier, and it won't feel like we solved it to a meaningful extent, but it would still be a whole lot better than with +2.5 or +3.5.
Beware the argument that it's too late now.
This is why, even though I'll advocate doing as much as we can as soon as we can, I'm feeling a bit more hopeful about this problem. I think we're pretty close to a technological and economic tipping point where +3.5C becomes quite unlikely. This is not something I was confident about some years ago.
Yes, I think we’ll avert complete disaster. The fact is that old carbon intensive technology looks just that: old. Once you have cleaner more cost effective technologies available it’s just laziness and inertia to attempt to stick with the old ones.
I do think heatwaves are the best trigger for people to take things seriously. They are a direct, physical hit of “too hot”. When you are too hot you will do anything to cool down.
That was roughly Bjorn Lomborg's argument in the Skeptical Environmentalist - there's a real problem, but technological development will make it easier to fix later rather than earlier. That was 25 years ago, though; later but not too late is arriving roughly on track.
And so as a world we really need to crack on with doing things in lower carbon ways (sorry if you make your living selling coal or oil) and adapting to higher temperatures. Fortunately for the UK, the template (more trees, fountains, shade and shutters) already exists. And (physics teacher hat on) insulation keeps heat in houses in the winter and out of houses in the summer.
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
That’s a feature not a bug.
I thought a good Conservative like you would be opposed to government legislating all the time
A good Conservative like me believes if it ain't broke don't fix it, the Lords works effectively as a revising chamber, if it was mainly elected it would move towards becoming a blocking chamber
A fair point although the way people are appointed (do they really need to become Lords for start? ) means it is stuffed with career politicians and hangers-on to them- Woudl be better to appoint from all sections of society and trades
There are plenty from business, the arts, sport, law, the media, science, academia, religious bodies, the military and police, charities in the Lords, not just ex politicians, civil servants and donors
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
Most places get by with two elected chambers, but the Commons would need to think very carefully what kind of chamber it wants if it replaces the Lords.
Given how governments dislike scrutiny, I'd suspect they'd be more in favour of unicameralism.
Of comparable western nations to ours only the US, Australia, Japan and Italy have fully directly elected second chambers
(Italy's is not fully elected, as you also have Senators for Life.)
Looking at it from the other side, Denmark and Sweden are the only unicameral countries I can think of in Western Europe.
Greece, Norway, Finland and Portugal are unicameral too and of western nations outside Europe, New Zealand and Israel and South Korea are also unicameral
You are absolutely correct: I had forgotten those.
Interestingly, Norway only got rid of its second chamber recently.
With that said... pretty much any developed democratic country with a population of more 20 million has two chambers, *except* South Korea:
US Canada Australia France Italy UK Japan Spain Germany
Indeed but of the big nations with second chambers above only the US and Australia, Italy and Japan are mainly elected by voters (plus Brazil looking at less developed big nations).
China has effectively a unicameral parliament in the National People's Congress but much of its power is delegated to a Standing Committee, neither are directly elected by voters
I don't have any particular issue with indirect election. Or, indeed, a mix.
Perhaps we could have an Upper House of 200 members, which is 100 elected in thirds every two years (like the US system), plus various groups that are elected indirectly - perhaps county councils and unitary authorities, weighted by size.
One interesting question that might shed light on constitutional arrangements is — which country seems to do best at balancing efficacy in government with representation of the people?
Germany probably ticks most boxes.
The Germany which gave the world Schroder and Merkel.
The German system has worked very nicely for Putin.
Penny Mordaunt followed by a 2023 election is bad news for both oppo parties. She’ll be an effective campaigner but possibly ineffective administrator. So an election during a honeymoon period hot on the heels of a major political reset = Tory majority
I think that's right: I think she could well benefit from an end of the war in Ukraine (and therefore fuel and food prices falling), combined with a generally cheerful disposition and a vague sense of patriotism. (Plus the fact she doesn't appear to be a wingnut.)
But.
There's that increasingly nagging doubt that she'd be pretty rubbish at the job.
It would make 2023/4 like 1992, and 2028/9 like 1997.
I've been unwinding a bit of my Mordaunt today.
It doesn't feel like she's evens anymore.
Hmm it's still a game of two halves
What happens next. Well either by vote or withdrawal Tommy T heads out. The vote left in is Bravermans and that's going to go disproportionately to Truss, or at least won't change the status quo too much. So who does Tom T endorse ? Either Penny or Rishi I think. Perhaps Rishi after last night. Penny has enough support to still come second as Truss did not do enough to win the non erg votes to get through to the final two. Badenoch though good didn't show MPs enough to dissuade from heading likely disproportionately over to Davos candidate Rishi Rich. So we go to members with a lipsided lead for Rishi over Penny. I still think she's ahead mind, Rishi will have all the Boris fans against him and that's still the bulk of the membership. So after all is said and done, Penny wins perhaps something like 55-45.
Yes, I said similar earlier and predicted 58:42.
However, the situation is volatile, it's still possible she doesn't make it to the final two, and I want to buy Penny back at a better price later, so I have laid off at 2.1.
I think she has some way still to drift and Rishi will probably go odds on again at some point.
This one more of a betting puzzle than the previous lump on Boris at any price which was the prior contest
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
That’s a feature not a bug.
I thought a good Conservative like you would be opposed to government legislating all the time
A good Conservative like me believes if it ain't broke don't fix it, the Lords works effectively as a revising chamber, if it was mainly elected it would move towards becoming a blocking chamber
I believe that the Blair reforms did break it.
I would change it so as to (a) introduce terms, and (b) make it less appointed by the whim of the Prime Minister. FWIW, the Parliament Act - which prevents the Lords from overruling the Commons three times, plus the conventions on Money Bills and on manifesto commitments, should prevent it becoming a blocking chamber.
They do for now but if mainly elected the upper house would be more willing to overrule the Commons more than once, especially on non manifesto commitments and in time an elected Senate would seek to block legislation completely and amend the Parliament Act
"in time an elected Senate would seek to block legislation completely and amend the Parliament Act"
In which other countries has the Upper House been on a one-way power grab?
Whoever is next PM, they should introduce a new law that says there has to be a GE within 3 months of a change of PM. That'll stop the leadership challenges.
There’s another vote on Monday, yes? Is it actually safe to hold a vote at Westminster?
Is there not a confidence vote as well as the quarter finals of the Conservative Party World Cup? Would be funny if the government accidentally collapsed because some folk thought "fuck that, I'm staying where it's cool".
I’m serious. A friend just texted the instructions from her employer:
"buy the groceries you need, put tinfoil on your windows and close the curtains.”
“don't even bother going for a walk. you will not only suffer but you'll let heat into the house too”
Jesus Christ
Why do you say that? Sound advice
If you think its great your EMPLOYER tells you to not go for a walk then I differ in the way I would like society to operate - Its chit advice anyway - isolate yourself basically- great!
Have you ever experienced a SERIOUS heat wave? And why assume that the EMPLOYER is giving orders, as opposed to ADVICE?
If you wish to celebrate your personal liberty during the impending heat emergency, then throw the doors & windows open wide, go out for a long jog, and come home to enjoy the pot roast that's been cooking all day.
Knock yourself out - perhaps literally.
This is so over the top
Sounds like you have NOT previously experienced serious heat wave.
cause i have i have been to Greece ,Dubai , even lived in 1976! - Honestly the nanny wardens we have today
It's one thing IF you are in place that regularly experiences high temps AND you have A/C.
Different if you don't.
Taking sensible precautions is sensible. Ignoring such for ideological reasons is not.
show me where i have said i am ignoring things for ideological reasons ? As an adult I am perfectly capable of accessing how to go about my business in hot weather - Its not an ideology
One interesting question that might shed light on constitutional arrangements is — which country seems to do best at balancing efficacy in government with representation of the people?
Germany probably ticks most boxes.
The Germany which gave the world Schroder and Merkel.
The German system has worked very nicely for Putin.
"But Merkel" says someone in the country that just chose between Boris and Corbyn. Fuck me.
Penny Mordaunt followed by a 2023 election is bad news for both oppo parties. She’ll be an effective campaigner but possibly ineffective administrator. So an election during a honeymoon period hot on the heels of a major political reset = Tory majority
I think that's right: I think she could well benefit from an end of the war in Ukraine (and therefore fuel and food prices falling), combined with a generally cheerful disposition and a vague sense of patriotism. (Plus the fact she doesn't appear to be a wingnut.)
But.
There's that increasingly nagging doubt that she'd be pretty rubbish at the job.
It would make 2023/4 like 1992, and 2028/9 like 1997.
I've been unwinding a bit of my Mordaunt today.
It doesn't feel like she's evens anymore.
Hmm it's still a game of two halves
What happens next. Well either by vote or withdrawal Tommy T heads out. The vote left in is Bravermans and that's going to go disproportionately to Truss, or at least won't change the status quo too much. So who does Tom T endorse ? Either Penny or Rishi I think. Perhaps Rishi after last night. Penny has enough support to still come second as Truss did not do enough to win the non erg votes to get through to the final two. Badenoch though good didn't show MPs enough to dissuade from heading likely disproportionately over to Davos candidate Rishi Rich. So we go to members with a lipsided lead for Rishi over Penny. I still think she's ahead mind, Rishi will have all the Boris fans against him and that's still the bulk of the membership. So after all is said and done, Penny wins perhaps something like 55-45.
I think that’s right.
Anecdote alert!!
The only person I know who is a Tory member is on the fence with Penny, likes Liz Truss (but doesn’t “think she’s the right fit for PM”) and likes Kemi a lot. But the interesting thing is the absolute disdain with which they hold Rishi Sunak.
Now to me as a newly minted swing voter, Rishi didn’t come across badly last night, and in fact seemed the most sensible out of at least the top 4 (I’m not counting TT because he’s doomed at the next vote anyway). I am not a fan of his because I don’t think someone with a FPN should be put forward and the whole wealth/green card/wife’s financial affairs stuff concerns me. But I took from yesterday that he could move into Number 10 tomorrow and probably make a decent fist of it, even if he’s not someone I personally am inclined to back at an election.
But the feeling amongst the membership, again anecdotally but also seemingly borne out by that YouGov polling, seems to be that the guy is utterly toxic. If it was a Rishi v Penny final 2, I would put good money on him coming across as much better briefed and probably more impressive, but given his massive handicap with the membership I’m just not sure whether he faces an insurmountable hurdle.
DYOR, again I appreciate a lot of this is driven by anecdote and a sample size of one!
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
So we should drop net zero and invest in the military?
No, we should lead the way to net zero and work as hard as we can to make sure other countries understand it too. AND invest in the military.
Presumably only those parts of the military that don't produce any carbon dioxide.
One interesting question that might shed light on constitutional arrangements is — which country seems to do best at balancing efficacy in government with representation of the people?
Germany probably ticks most boxes.
The Germany which gave the world Schroder and Merkel.
The German system has worked very nicely for Putin.
Any suggestions as to what questions the Con candidates should be asked ?
How about:
Would the country be better with higher or lower house prices ? Should more or fewer young people be going to university ? Why should pensions get a bigger increase than public sector workers ?
Addressing your question generically with regard to the opposition, the only real question being the chances of the next government being Labour or Tory led:
Truss: Low level of fear, no negative features from Lab/LD point of view
The Hat: Significant fear; clean pair of hands; as good as or better then other leaders. Will detoxify the Tories
Mordaunt: Caution. Whatever she does she remains an unknown quantity currently. Therefore opposition should fear.
Rishi: Neutral, a known quantity; masses of stuff to work on. Should in his own way be nearly as destructible as Jezza. But I would need to be well armed.
Kemi: Absolutely terrifying. An unknown quantity, obviously a loose cannon, shares verbalising qualities with some of the best - Obama, Clinton, Blair - though well short of the finished article. Would change UK politics and society for ever. May destroy herself, but neither Lab not LDs have armaments to do it themselves.
However she is in the hands of the party that chose IDS over Ken Clarke. So Labour will keep hoping their prayers are answered.
One interesting question that might shed light on constitutional arrangements is — which country seems to do best at balancing efficacy in government with representation of the people?
Germany probably ticks most boxes.
The Germany which gave the world Schroder and Merkel.
The German system has worked very nicely for Putin.
You could argue that the German system (mostly) worked very well for the Germans and not so well for the Ukrainians.
I think you do need to give the Germans some credit. In 1990, the country reunited, and the East was incredibly poor, with terrible infrastructure and no modern industries. It could have been a sink for the West for fifty years. Yet now the East German Lander are *all* pretty wealthy.
Politics is about priorities. Yes, Germany made the mistake of becoming too dependent on Russian gas. But governments needed to get elected. And "levelling up" bought votes now, while becoming independent of Russian gas may not have had a positive impact.
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
So we should drop net zero and invest in the military?
No, we should lead the way to net zero and work as hard as we can to make sure other countries understand it too. AND invest in the military.
Presumably only those parts of the military that don't produce any carbon dioxide.
No, because carbon emissions don't fall to zero with net zero. That's why it's net zero, not gross zero.
There’s another vote on Monday, yes? Is it actually safe to hold a vote at Westminster?
Is there not a confidence vote as well as the quarter finals of the Conservative Party World Cup? Would be funny if the government accidentally collapsed because some folk thought "fuck that, I'm staying where it's cool".
I’m serious. A friend just texted the instructions from her employer:
"buy the groceries you need, put tinfoil on your windows and close the curtains.”
“don't even bother going for a walk. you will not only suffer but you'll let heat into the house too”
Jesus Christ
Why do you say that? Sound advice
If you think its great your EMPLOYER tells you to not go for a walk then I differ in the way I would like society to operate - Its chit advice anyway - isolate yourself basically- great!
Have you ever experienced a SERIOUS heat wave? And why assume that the EMPLOYER is giving orders, as opposed to ADVICE?
If you wish to celebrate your personal liberty during the impending heat emergency, then throw the doors & windows open wide, go out for a long jog, and come home to enjoy the pot roast that's been cooking all day.
Knock yourself out - perhaps literally.
This is so over the top
Sounds like you have NOT previously experienced serious heat wave.
cause i have i have been to Greece ,Dubai , even lived in 1976! - Honestly the nanny wardens we have today
It's one thing IF you are in place that regularly experiences high temps AND you have A/C.
Different if you don't.
Taking sensible precautions is sensible. Ignoring such for ideological reasons is not.
show me where i have said i am ignoring things for ideological reasons ? As an adult I am perfectly capable of accessing how to go about my business in hot weather - Its not an ideology
Perhaps I misread your reference to "nanny state"?
Have no doubt you can look out for yourself, and will as best you can.
You will certainly want to get out of the house, so early morning walk makes sense, probably the earlier the better. If you've got a good basic situation (well-insulated, limited southern exposure and some form of cooling, please make the most of it.
If your situation is not quite so good (like mine) then think of where you might go to cool off a bit. When it got super-hot in Seattle for days and days, I'm NOT to proud to sleep in the basement, where it is about 10F degrees cooler than in my bedroom at night under such conditions, when it never really cools down outside.
One interesting question that might shed light on constitutional arrangements is — which country seems to do best at balancing efficacy in government with representation of the people?
Germany probably ticks most boxes.
The Germany which gave the world Schroder and Merkel.
The German system has worked very nicely for Putin.
Snore.
So no sensible response.
Perhaps because there isn't one because Schroder and Merkel have been Putin's ideal German leaders.
But was that because of the German constitutional system or because of the wider German establishment ?
Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.
It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.
Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting. It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
That’s a feature not a bug.
I thought a good Conservative like you would be opposed to government legislating all the time
A good Conservative like me believes if it ain't broke don't fix it, the Lords works effectively as a revising chamber, if it was mainly elected it would move towards becoming a blocking chamber
I believe that the Blair reforms did break it.
I would change it so as to (a) introduce terms, and (b) make it less appointed by the whim of the Prime Minister. FWIW, the Parliament Act - which prevents the Lords from overruling the Commons three times, plus the conventions on Money Bills and on manifesto commitments, should prevent it becoming a blocking chamber.
They do for now but if mainly elected the upper house would be more willing to overrule the Commons more than once, especially on non manifesto commitments and in time an elected Senate would seek to block legislation completely and amend the Parliament Act
"in time an elected Senate would seek to block legislation completely and amend the Parliament Act"
In which other countries has the Upper House been on a one-way power grab?
In the US the elected Senate is at least as powerful as the elected House of Representatives, if not more so.
The more the upper house is elected, the more willing it is to try and block legislation and make major amendments to it, not simply to scrutinise it and make minor amendments
Any suggestions as to what questions the Con candidates should be asked ?
How about:
Would the country be better with higher or lower house prices ? Should more or fewer young people be going to university ? Why should pensions get a bigger increase than public sector workers ?
How much is enough as a % of GDP (and how much more than the current £200 bn) to give us an NHS and social care system that works really well.
Have to say today's weather is absolutely perfect. 27 odd C is that real sweet spot
There's still that odd and potentially significant five-degree discrepancy between the Met Office's and the BBC's temperature prediction for London on Monday, on their respective websites - 35 to 40.
What's the reason for that, I wonder ? It matters quite a lot.
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
So we should drop net zero and invest in the military?
No, we should lead the way to net zero and work as hard as we can to make sure other countries understand it too. AND invest in the military.
The UK food production to supply ratio is at about 60%, which means that we rely on imports to feed about 27 million people.
However, I became a lot more relaxed about this when I found out Ireland can produce enough food to feed 40 million people, a massive surplus compared to their population of 5 million.
One interesting question that might shed light on constitutional arrangements is — which country seems to do best at balancing efficacy in government with representation of the people?
Germany probably ticks most boxes.
The Germany which gave the world Schroder and Merkel.
The German system has worked very nicely for Putin.
Snore.
So no sensible response.
Perhaps because there isn't one because Schroder and Merkel have been Putin's ideal German leaders.
But was that because of the German constitutional system or because of the wider German establishment ?
I just couldn’t be arsed responding to a nit-witted non sequitur. Someone else did though and I refer you to that entirely correct response.
My god it's big. And not as heavy as the delivery man's complaints would imply.
But the size is basically a traditional dishwasher sliced in 2 vertically. HWD = 3ft x 2ft x 1ft. With rounded corners. And the unit itself can live outside.
But the statement is 1.4kW of power for 3.2kW of heating, and 1.5kW of power for 4kW of cooling. And a CoP (Coefficient of Power) of about 2.5, which is modest compared to an ASHP but far better then direct.
Or 14000 BTU in American.
Those are pretty impressive numbers: please keep us in the loop about how well it performs.
Will do. This is the beast. And I can drive it via WiFi (ie Alexa).
What is amusing is that the "sale discount" has been reduced so this weekend it is £549 rather than the £469 I paid on Thursday 2 days ago. Airline pricing !
It claims ability for 38 sqm rooms, which seems reasonable from reviews.
Eventually I will I think be running the thing in a N-facing conservatory ducted through a window into the N-facing kitchen with the downstairs internal doors open, and if necessary a small window open at the other end of the conservatory for airflow. External quality 2G doors between the conservatory and house, and also to outside. I need to model the house heat losses / absorption in a spreadsheet model.
ElectriQ is an Appliances Direct own brand I have used for years, and is available via themselves and Amazon. Though there are identical models under different brands - AD use a varied white label approach for ElectriQ.
Addressing your question generically with regard to the opposition, the only real question being the chances of the next government being Labour or Tory led:
Truss: Low level of fear, no negative features from Lab/LD point of view
The Hat: Significant fear; clean pair of hands; as good as or better then other leaders. Will detoxify the Tories
Mordaunt: Caution. Whatever she does she remains an unknown quantity currently. Therefore opposition should fear.
Rishi: Neutral, a known quantity; masses of stuff to work on. Should in his own way be nearly as destructible as Jezza. But I would need to be well armed.
Kemi: Absolutely terrifying. An unknown quantity, obviously a loose cannon, shares verbalising qualities with some of the best - Obama, Clinton, Blair - though well short of the finished article. Would change UK politics and society for ever. May destroy herself, but neither Lab not LDs have armaments to do it themselves.
However she is in the hands of the party that chose IDS over Ken Clarke. So Labour will keep hoping their prayers are answered.
Kemi is probably the most socially conservative of the candidates, as well as having backed Brexit. She would likely be the most rightwing Tory leader since IDS, albeit economically not quite as small state as Truss
An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.
Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online
Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market
The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
Avenue Road.
Exactly. THE Park. Primrose Hill. It is the only Royal Park worthy of the name
Isn't Avenue Road the place for dodgy plutocrats who can't afford Bishops Avenue?
Can it be reached with a private helicopter?
Who the hell would choose to live in Bishop's Avenue.
And Winnington Road was the substitute. Both near Kenwood.
Someone with lots of cash and a helicopter
Sure: but if you had infinite cash to spend, why wouldn't you much prefer Avenue Road, or the fancier bits of Primrose Hill / St John's Wood?
You'd get the same close access to a delightful park (Regent's, rather than Hampstead Heath), and you'd also have much better access to restaurants, shops, public transport*, and central London.
* For the staff
Avenue road is horrible. A rat run with no soul. You can do far better
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
So we should drop net zero and invest in the military?
No, we should lead the way to net zero and work as hard as we can to make sure other countries understand it too. AND invest in the military.
The UK food production to supply ratio is at about 60%, which means that we rely on imports to feed about 27 million people.
However, I became a lot more relaxed about this when I found out Ireland can produce enough food to feed 40 million people, a massive surplus compared to their population of 5 million.
There’s another vote on Monday, yes? Is it actually safe to hold a vote at Westminster?
Is there not a confidence vote as well as the quarter finals of the Conservative Party World Cup? Would be funny if the government accidentally collapsed because some folk thought "fuck that, I'm staying where it's cool".
I’m serious. A friend just texted the instructions from her employer:
"buy the groceries you need, put tinfoil on your windows and close the curtains.”
“don't even bother going for a walk. you will not only suffer but you'll let heat into the house too”
Jesus Christ
Why do you say that? Sound advice
If you think its great your EMPLOYER tells you to not go for a walk then I differ in the way I would like society to operate - Its chit advice anyway - isolate yourself basically- great!
Have you ever experienced a SERIOUS heat wave? And why assume that the EMPLOYER is giving orders, as opposed to ADVICE?
If you wish to celebrate your personal liberty during the impending heat emergency, then throw the doors & windows open wide, go out for a long jog, and come home to enjoy the pot roast that's been cooking all day.
Knock yourself out - perhaps literally.
This is so over the top
Sounds like you have NOT previously experienced serious heat wave.
cause i have i have been to Greece ,Dubai , even lived in 1976! - Honestly the nanny wardens we have today
It's one thing IF you are in place that regularly experiences high temps AND you have A/C.
Different if you don't.
Taking sensible precautions is sensible. Ignoring such for ideological reasons is not.
show me where i have said i am ignoring things for ideological reasons ? As an adult I am perfectly capable of accessing how to go about my business in hot weather - Its not an ideology
But it very precisely is with you: you don't object to the substance of the advice but because it comes from "nanny wardens" and has some wholly superficial resemblance to covid lockdowns. You seem to intend to ignore it for those reasons - as purely ideological a decision as one could imagine.
you really don't now what is coming if holidays in Greece and Dubai are the extent of your experience.
Simply introduce attendance requirements, and leave appointments to an independent panel.
Overall it would be good to have more regional representation (ex council leaders for example) and less political hacks and certainly no party donors.
And either scrub the bishops or have RC, Presbyterian, Muslim, Jewish, Wiccan, and Jedi representation. Not to mention Unitarians and Congregationalists, and Methodists too, as well as Scottish Episcopal. Jains, Buddhists, and so on. And a fair proportion of atheists brought in for that reason alone (as well as others).
Whoever is next PM, they should introduce a new law that says there has to be a GE within 3 months of a change of PM. That'll stop the leadership challenges.
If they don't, Starmer should after the next GE.
That's why MPs of any party would be crazy to do it.
Simply introduce attendance requirements, and leave appointments to an independent panel.
Overall it would be good to have more regional representation (ex council leaders for example) and less political hacks and certainly no party donors.
And either scrub the bishops or have RC, Presbyterian, Muslim, Jewish, Wiccan, and Jedi representation. Not to mention Unitarians and Congregationalists, and Methodists too, as well as Scottish Episcopal.
I don’t care about the bishops personally, but sure.
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
So we should drop net zero and invest in the military?
No, we should lead the way to net zero and work as hard as we can to make sure other countries understand it too. AND invest in the military.
The UK food production to supply ratio is at about 60%, which means that we rely on imports to feed about 27 million people.
However, I became a lot more relaxed about this when I found out Ireland can produce enough food to feed 40 million people, a massive surplus compared to their population of 5 million.
So the invasion is on then? Its probably the best way to end the NI protocol issues.
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
So we should drop net zero and invest in the military?
No, we should lead the way to net zero and work as hard as we can to make sure other countries understand it too. AND invest in the military.
The UK food production to supply ratio is at about 60%, which means that we rely on imports to feed about 27 million people.
However, I became a lot more relaxed about this when I found out Ireland can produce enough food to feed 40 million people, a massive surplus compared to their population of 5 million.
That's fantastic, but Ireland is a small country and climatic variations could affect whole regions. We wouldn't want to put all our potatoes in one basket.
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
So we should drop net zero and invest in the military?
No, we should lead the way to net zero and work as hard as we can to make sure other countries understand it too. AND invest in the military.
The UK food production to supply ratio is at about 60%, which means that we rely on imports to feed about 27 million people.
However, I became a lot more relaxed about this when I found out Ireland can produce enough food to feed 40 million people, a massive surplus compared to their population of 5 million.
So the invasion is on then? Its probably the best way to end the NI protocol issues.
I wouldn't assume it'd be as easy as you think. I think we stand a fair chance of repelling a full scale Irish invasion.
Basically the HoL should not be appointed by the PM
I feel, as I have said before, that Peers should still be appointed for life, but in the same proportions along party lines as votes received in the General Election. This would be a subtle but important change. It would also mean that to an extent, every GE vote would 'count' even in a safe seat.
Simply introduce attendance requirements, and leave appointments to an independent panel.
Overall it would be good to have more regional representation (ex council leaders for example) and less political hacks and certainly no party donors.
Yes. If the latter moan, well surely they did not donate in order to be rewarded, right?
1) Mandatory attendance - unlike MPs it is justified because the public did not place them there and they are supposed to contribute something. Extensions can be granted for illness, as with local councils. 2) No one may receive a peerage if they have donated above a very small amount to a political party (ie, the sort a normal person might make) in the last 15 years. 3) No one who has sat in the Commons may sit in the Lords until a period of 10 years has passed - they should earn their place with continued good works, not as an incentive to get duffers to retire or reward losers. 4) No PM resignation honours - why should any honour, let alone a peerage, be in the gift of someone leaving political life? Or even sticking around?
Almost time for the Sunday headlines. If someone’s been doing something naughty that they shouldn’t have been, then tonight’s the most likely night we’re going to find out about it.
It’ll probably be a damp squib. Parties can’t even do leadership elections properly anymore.
One interesting question that might shed light on constitutional arrangements is — which country seems to do best at balancing efficacy in government with representation of the people?
Germany probably ticks most boxes.
The Germany which gave the world Schroder and Merkel.
The German system has worked very nicely for Putin.
You could argue that the German system (mostly) worked very well for the Germans and not so well for the Ukrainians.
I think you do need to give the Germans some credit. In 1990, the country reunited, and the East was incredibly poor, with terrible infrastructure and no modern industries. It could have been a sink for the West for fifty years. Yet now the East German Lander are *all* pretty wealthy.
Politics is about priorities. Yes, Germany made the mistake of becoming too dependent on Russian gas. But governments needed to get elected. And "levelling up" bought votes now, while becoming independent of Russian gas may not have had a positive impact.
In the 1990s and even the 2000s that's a reasonable suggestion but in the last decade it was pretty obvious that having any dependency on Russia was becoming ever more risky.
And that Russia was becoming ever more of a threat to Eastern Europe - countries which Germany has both a moral historical debt to and also a current political responsibility to via the EU.
Of course that would give Schroeder a working excuse - international progress through trade, didn't know what the future would bring, left office in 2005, blah and blah - if he'd wanted to use it. But he didn't, he's an actual Putin cheerleader. At least you have to give him credit for honesty.
Have to say today's weather is absolutely perfect. 27 odd C is that real sweet spot
There's still that odd and potentially significant five-degree discrepancy between the Met Office's and the BBC's temperature prediction for London on Monday, on their respective websites - 35 to 40.
What's the reason for that, I wonder ? It matters quite a lot.
They use different forecasting system. The Met Office uses its own, the BBC uses I think a Dutch system that uses a US model or something like that. The Beeb decided to save money by dropping the Met. This was and is a scandal in my opinion. I doubt many viewers know that the Beeb forecasts are not Met.
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
So we should drop net zero and invest in the military?
No, we should lead the way to net zero and work as hard as we can to make sure other countries understand it too. AND invest in the military.
The UK food production to supply ratio is at about 60%, which means that we rely on imports to feed about 27 million people.
However, I became a lot more relaxed about this when I found out Ireland can produce enough food to feed 40 million people, a massive surplus compared to their population of 5 million.
So the invasion is on then? Its probably the best way to end the NI protocol issues.
I wouldn't assume it'd be as easy as you think. I think we stand a fair chance of repelling a full scale Irish invasion.
Comments
Flags being Spain, Russia, Mexico, "California Republic", USA
Put CR in italics, as it was essentially a PR stunt. But it DID create the Great Bear Flag which is one of the best state AND global flags flapping around.
Also made John C. Fremont "the Pathfinder" a national celebrity, leading directly to his nomination as the first presidential candidate of then-new Republican Party in 1856.
35 degrees? Unliveable.
40 degrees? Unimaginable.
It’s 29 degrees here in New York and too sticky to want to spend more than 15 minutes in direct sunlight.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DF5emO1X0HA
It would be good to see Truss v Rishi specifically on “the economy”.
The choices we make now will make the difference between ending up with +1.5C, +2.5C or +3.5C of warming.
It may well be that the impacts with +1.5C will be bad enough that we'll wish we'd done more earlier, and it won't feel like we solved it to a meaningful extent, but it would still be a whole lot better than with +2.5 or +3.5.
Beware the argument that it's too late now.
This is why, even though I'll advocate doing as much as we can as soon as we can, I'm feeling a bit more hopeful about this problem. I think we're pretty close to a technological and economic tipping point where +3.5C becomes quite unlikely. This is not something I was confident about some years ago.
It doesn't feel like she's evens anymore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m9oVXdEcYEo
Interestingly, Norway only got rid of its second chamber recently.
With that said... pretty much any developed democratic country with a population of more 20 million has two chambers, *except* South Korea:
US
Canada
Australia
France
Italy
UK
Japan
Spain
Germany
I do think heatwaves are the best trigger for people to take things seriously. They are a direct, physical hit of “too hot”. When you are too hot you will do anything to cool down.
In New York on Tuesday: 33°C and 42% (It's 29°C and 62% humidity in NY today I see)
It's the humidity that gets you.
You. Can’t. Say. “There’s. A. Very. Good. Story.” And. Not. Share.
Germany probably ticks most boxes.
2.08 Penny Mordaunt 48%
3 Rishi Sunak 33%
7.2 Liz Truss 14%
29 Kemi Badenoch
65 Tom Tugendhat
310 Dominic Raab
To make the final two:-
1.12 Rishi Sunak 89%
1.36 Penny Mordaunt 74%
3.1 Liz Truss 32%
15 Kemi Badenoch 7%
55 Tom Tugendhat
Hmm. Does 2/1 against Liz Truss to be in the top two look like value?
Different if you don't.
Taking sensible precautions is sensible. Ignoring such for ideological reasons is not.
I thought a good Conservative like you would be opposed to government legislating all the time
What happens next.
Well either by vote or withdrawal Tommy T heads out. The vote left in is Bravermans and that's going to go disproportionately to Truss, or at least won't change the status quo too much.
So who does Tom T endorse ?
Either Penny or Rishi I think. Perhaps Rishi after last night.
Penny has enough support to still come second as Truss did not do enough to win the non erg votes to get through to the final two.
Badenoch though good didn't show MPs enough to dissuade from heading likely disproportionately over to Davos candidate Rishi Rich.
So we go to members with a lipsided lead for Rishi over Penny.
I still think she's ahead mind, Rishi will have all the Boris fans against him and that's still the bulk of the membership.
So after all is said and done, Penny wins perhaps something like 55-45.
Worst, I have been unable to persuade any of my son's friends to join us, so I will be enduring roller coasters in unimaginable heat.
The only redeeming feature is that the conditions will be so extreme, that the queues will hopefully be short.
The problem is many political commentators start with form (elected/appointed) not function
My god it's big. And not as heavy as the delivery man's complaints would imply.
But the size is basically a traditional dishwasher sliced in 2 vertically. HWD = 3ft x 2ft x 1ft. With rounded corners. And the unit itself can live outside.
But the statement is 1.4kW of power for 3.2kW of heating, and 1.5kW of power for 4kW of cooling. And a CoP (Coefficient of Power) of about 2.5, which is modest compared to an ASHP but far better then direct.
Or 14000 BTU in American.
- modern industrial farming
- global supply chains
- advanced food preservation techniques
One of the consequences of climate change could be the shifting of suitable habitats for certain crops. If the wheat-growing prairies fail it's no short-term solution to note that places at different latitudes are suddenly getting the suitable weather. The means of production and distribution are not in the right places. It's not useful if the Lower Yenisei suddenly becomes great for wheat production because it'll take huge infra spending before it can actually start feeding the world. And in the meantime, failing crops in the places that are well connected to world markets means we've essentially kicked away one of the legs of that stool.
It means more people in more places will experience hunger. And that carries with it a risk of violent political conflicts, the kinds of which we have regularly seen when hunger reaches high-density populations.
We'd better hope if this comes about that our leaders have the will and the ability to do whatever it takes to keep us fed. We aren't self-sufficient, so we start from a disadvantage.
This is the core of the problem. If the climate changes faster than we can adapt to it, there will be trouble. And we're reliant on other countries, not just us, adapting in order for us to get food on OUR plates. Anyone who thinks it's just a case of deciding to move the farm to another place is living in a transhumance fantasy, totally detached from the real-life difficulties.
* FWIW I like penny as a person, but PM material, nah.
I would change it so as to (a) introduce terms, and (b) make it less appointed by the whim of the Prime Minister. FWIW, the Parliament Act - which prevents the Lords from overruling the Commons three times, plus the conventions on Money Bills and on manifesto commitments, should prevent it becoming a blocking chamber.
Tin-foil helmets likely a bit excessive, but would NOT rule 'em out!
So what is the 6th flag? BTW, relative of mine used to live near Jimmy Swaggart's World HQ in BR, LA.
Locals called it "Six Flags Over Jesus"
China has effectively a unicameral parliament in the National People's Congress but much of its power is delegated to a Standing Committee, neither are directly elected by voters
I don’t think she has solid fundamental support. She’d sink into well deserved obscurity on the back benches
It’s just “we survived the blitz” Facebook boomer vacuousness but applied to the climate.
However, the situation is volatile, it's still possible she doesn't make it to the final two, and I want to buy Penny back at a better price later, so I have laid off at 2.1.
I think she has some way still to drift and Rishi will probably go odds on again at some point.
AND invest in the military.
And so as a world we really need to crack on with doing things in lower carbon ways (sorry if you make your living selling coal or oil) and adapting to higher temperatures. Fortunately for the UK, the template (more trees, fountains, shade and shutters) already exists. And (physics teacher hat on) insulation keeps heat in houses in the winter and out of houses in the summer.
Perhaps we could have an Upper House of 200 members, which is 100 elected in thirds every two years (like the US system), plus various groups that are elected indirectly - perhaps county councils and unitary authorities, weighted by size.
This is what you should be looking at:
;-)
The German system has worked very nicely for Putin.
In which other countries has the Upper House been on a one-way power grab?
If they don't, Starmer should after the next GE.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-beds-bucks-herts-62183230
Anecdote alert!!
The only person I know who is a Tory member is on the fence with Penny, likes Liz Truss (but doesn’t “think she’s the right fit for PM”) and likes Kemi a lot. But the interesting thing is the absolute disdain with which they hold Rishi Sunak.
Now to me as a newly minted swing voter, Rishi didn’t come across badly last night, and in fact seemed the most sensible out of at least the top 4 (I’m not counting TT because he’s doomed at the next vote anyway). I am not a fan of his because I don’t think someone with a FPN should be put forward and the whole wealth/green card/wife’s financial affairs stuff concerns me. But I took from yesterday that he could move into Number 10 tomorrow and probably make a decent fist of it, even if he’s not someone I personally am inclined to back at an election.
But the feeling amongst the membership, again anecdotally but also seemingly borne out by that YouGov polling, seems to be that the guy is utterly toxic. If it was a Rishi v Penny final 2, I would put good money on him coming across as much better briefed and probably more impressive, but given his massive handicap with the membership I’m just not sure whether he faces an insurmountable hurdle.
DYOR, again I appreciate a lot of this is driven by anecdote and a sample size of one!
How about:
Would the country be better with higher or lower house prices ?
Should more or fewer young people be going to university ?
Why should pensions get a bigger increase than public sector workers ?
Truss: Low level of fear, no negative features from Lab/LD point of view
The Hat: Significant fear; clean pair of hands; as good as or better then other leaders. Will detoxify the Tories
Mordaunt: Caution. Whatever she does she remains an unknown quantity currently. Therefore opposition should fear.
Rishi: Neutral, a known quantity; masses of stuff to work on. Should in his own way be nearly as destructible as Jezza. But I would need to be well armed.
Kemi: Absolutely terrifying. An unknown quantity, obviously a loose cannon, shares verbalising qualities with some of the best - Obama, Clinton, Blair - though well short of the finished article. Would change UK politics and society for ever. May destroy herself, but neither Lab not LDs have armaments to do it themselves.
However she is in the hands of the party that chose IDS over Ken Clarke. So Labour will keep hoping their prayers are answered.
I think you do need to give the Germans some credit. In 1990, the country reunited, and the East was incredibly poor, with terrible infrastructure and no modern industries. It could have been a sink for the West for fifty years. Yet now the East German Lander are *all* pretty wealthy.
Politics is about priorities. Yes, Germany made the mistake of becoming too dependent on Russian gas. But governments needed to get elected. And "levelling up" bought votes now, while becoming independent of Russian gas may not have had a positive impact.
Simply introduce attendance requirements, and leave appointments to an independent panel.
Overall it would be good to have more regional representation (ex council leaders for example) and less political hacks and certainly no party donors.
That's why it's net zero, not gross zero.
Have no doubt you can look out for yourself, and will as best you can.
You will certainly want to get out of the house, so early morning walk makes sense, probably the earlier the better. If you've got a good basic situation (well-insulated, limited southern exposure and some form of cooling, please make the most of it.
If your situation is not quite so good (like mine) then think of where you might go to cool off a bit. When it got super-hot in Seattle for days and days, I'm NOT to proud to sleep in the basement, where it is about 10F degrees cooler than in my bedroom at night under such conditions, when it never really cools down outside.
Perhaps because there isn't one because Schroder and Merkel have been Putin's ideal German leaders.
But was that because of the German constitutional system or because of the wider German establishment ?
The more the upper house is elected, the more willing it is to try and block legislation and make major amendments to it, not simply to scrutinise it and make minor amendments
In truth, British democracy is looking slightly ropey and does need a re-boot.
I would start with banning foreigners and non-doms from media ownership, although I appreciate no Tory is going to start there.
What's the reason for that, I wonder ? It matters quite a lot.
However, I became a lot more relaxed about this when I found out Ireland can produce enough food to feed 40 million people, a massive surplus compared to their population of 5 million.
https://www.appliancesdirect.co.uk/p/airflex15w/electriq-airflex15w
What is amusing is that the "sale discount" has been reduced so this weekend it is £549 rather than the £469 I paid on Thursday 2 days ago. Airline pricing !
It claims ability for 38 sqm rooms, which seems reasonable from reviews.
Eventually I will I think be running the thing in a N-facing conservatory ducted through a window into the N-facing kitchen with the downstairs internal doors open, and if necessary a small window open at the other end of the conservatory for airflow. External quality 2G doors between the conservatory and house, and also to outside. I need to model the house heat losses / absorption in a spreadsheet model.
ElectriQ is an Appliances Direct own brand I have used for years, and is available via themselves and Amazon. Though there are identical models under different brands - AD use a varied white label approach for ElectriQ.
you really don't now what is coming if holidays in Greece and Dubai are the extent of your experience.
To the extent that Boris “got all the big calls right”, Rishi seems to have “got all the big calls wrong.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-edinburgh-east-fife-62190489
1) Mandatory attendance - unlike MPs it is justified because the public did not place them there and they are supposed to contribute something. Extensions can be granted for illness, as with local councils.
2) No one may receive a peerage if they have donated above a very small amount to a political party (ie, the sort a normal person might make) in the last 15 years.
3) No one who has sat in the Commons may sit in the Lords until a period of 10 years has passed - they should earn their place with continued good works, not as an incentive to get duffers to retire or reward losers.
4) No PM resignation honours - why should any honour, let alone a peerage, be in the gift of someone leaving political life? Or even sticking around?
It’ll probably be a damp squib. Parties can’t even do leadership elections properly anymore.
And that Russia was becoming ever more of a threat to Eastern Europe - countries which Germany has both a moral historical debt to and also a current political responsibility to via the EU.
Of course that would give Schroeder a working excuse - international progress through trade, didn't know what the future would bring, left office in 2005, blah and blah - if he'd wanted to use it. But he didn't, he's an actual Putin cheerleader. At least you have to give him credit for honesty.