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Which contenders should LAB and the LDs fear most? – politicalbetting.com

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  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    Awaits the evidence from @TOPPING that s/he shaves...
    In time it will be a big day for me.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    FPT

    1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

    If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

    Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

    June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

    1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

    1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

    It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

    In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

    The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

    Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

    Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

    There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

    I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
    Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
    Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?

    Who?
    Quite a few folk ... including some Tories. One of us was denying the need for net zero policies only a couple of hours ago, which is pretty much the same thing.
    Big G also said we couldn’t afford “net zero”.
    There’s quite a lot of confusion over it.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    So were you. Cornwall is west of Regent's Park ...
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

    Replying to

    @AdamBienkov

    It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

    ---

    She is looking very accident prone

    Or possibly she misheard someone saying that 180innovations plc isn't being used by the NHS? And mangled it. As suggested bu this chap.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/binaryape/status/1548040814437093387

    This coming out with any old guff on the spur of the moment is horribly familiar. 40 new hospitals and all that, remember?
    But they seem to be a retail, Boots the chemist sort of thing
    Yep, but the name is suspiciously similar. Anyway it's doomed to remain one of the great unanswered questions of the cosmos, like the Riemann hypothesis, and exactly what gender a Little Grey Alien is.
    And "What is the square root of 1 million?"
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,291
    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    BBC Weather is now predicting 42C in some places on Tuesday. eg Wittering Peterborough

    Let that sink in. 42C in little old Wittering

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633727

    Shit

    There's a bloke on the reddit thread linked to below saying his flat is routinely 10C warmer than the outside temp. How is he not going to die? How is it legal to build or sell or rent out shit buildings like that? My house is a sort of barely habitable stone igloo but it is consistently cooler in than out (23 vs 26 at the moment)
    My flat is also, regularly, 10C warmer than outside. It's the first floor, with very high ceilings, and floor to ceiling windows. Facing absolutely due south

    I will close the windows and blinds early tomorrow, and they might stay shut til Wednesday dawn. And I shall pray

    If it gets really bad I will go to a hotel
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    Avenue Road.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    edited July 2022
    Well. My heat-pump including 'portable' air conditioner has just arrived, 2 days early.

    Delivery gent not impressed with the 28kg weight and lifting it up the step to the front door. Quite: "f*cks sake".

    I'll have to introduce him to the chap Howdens sent before with a 105kg kitchen range, a lorry with a 1.6m load bed, alone and with no trolley. We had to carry that in by hand.

    Experiments can start as to whether this will make much difference with a couple of hours of setting the house temp in the morning for summer and winter to save the bills, using the solar energy, and what sort of scale of heat pump I may need to replace the gas boiler eventually.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,923
    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    FPT

    1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

    If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

    Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

    June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

    1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

    1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

    It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

    In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

    The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

    Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

    Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

    There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

    I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
    Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
    Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?

    Who?
    I suspect our seaside resorts won't be complaining too much if Britain gets Spain's summer temperatures and Spain gets Dubai's summer temperatures.

    Longer term it is a matter of ensuring we have enough fossil fuel free energy, which likely includes nuclear as well as renewables
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,291
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    Avenue Road.
    Exactly. THE Park. Primrose Hill. It is the only Royal Park worthy of the name
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,507
    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

    Replying to

    @AdamBienkov

    It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

    ---

    She is looking very accident prone

    She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

    She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.
    “her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.”

    That’s because, like everyone else, they don’t have a clue what she was on about.”
    And, presumably, it's no good asking her because she doesn't know?
    Hence deleting all evidence to it, and hope no one noticed.

    She’ll probably deny she ever said it, and Cyclefree will add it to her little list.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    MattW said:

    Well. My heat-pump including 'portable' air conditioner has just arrived, 2 days early.

    Delivery gent not impressed with the 28kg weight and lifting it up the step to the front door. Quite: "f*cks sake".

    I'll have to introduce him to the chap Howdens sent before with a 105kg kitchen range, a lorry with a 1.6m load bed, alone and with no trolley. We had to carry that in by hand.

    Experiments can start as to whether this will make much difference with a couple of hours of setting the house temp in the morning for summer and winter to save the bills, using the solar energy, and what sort of scale of heat pump I may need to replace the gas boiler eventually.

    Sounds adventurous. Please keep us informed as I have been thinking about it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    FPT

    1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

    If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

    Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

    June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

    1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

    1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

    It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

    In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

    The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

    Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

    Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

    There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

    I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
    Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
    Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?

    Who?
    Quite a few folk ... including some Tories. One of us was denying the need for net zero policies only a couple of hours ago, which is pretty much the same thing.

    Edit: I have just realised yo might have thought my comment was aimed at you specifically. Not at all; apologies if it was misconstrued as such. It was an allusion to TimT's final comment, before your post (and again not aimed at him but the situation he mentions).
    I think the logic is now

    It is a problem

    There is no free market solution to it

    Therefore there is no solution to it
  • TresTres Posts: 2,696
    edited July 2022
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    FPT

    1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

    If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

    Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

    June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

    1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

    1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

    It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

    In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

    The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

    Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

    Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

    There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

    I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
    Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
    Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?

    Who?
    I suspect our seaside resorts won't be complaining too much if Britain gets Spain's summer temperatures and Spain gets Dubai's summer temperatures.

    Longer term it is a matter of ensuring we have enough fossil fuel free energy, which likely includes nuclear as well as renewables
    All those London sewers are really gonna start to reek worse than they currently do.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

    Replying to

    @AdamBienkov

    It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

    ---

    She is looking very accident prone

    She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

    She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.
    “her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.”

    That’s because, like everyone else, they don’t have a clue what she was on about.”
    And, presumably, it's no good asking her because she doesn't know?
    Hence deleting all evidence to it, and hope no one noticed.

    She’ll probably deny she ever said it, and Cyclefree will add it to her little list.
    As the immortal Bard wrote:

    If there's a hole in a' your coats,
    I rede you tent it:
    A chield's amang you takin notes,
    And faith he'll prent it.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,663
    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    FPT

    1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

    If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

    Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

    June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

    1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

    1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

    It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

    In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

    The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

    Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

    Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

    There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

    I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
    Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
    Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?

    Who?
    Quite a few folk ... including some Tories. One of us was denying the need for net zero policies only a couple of hours ago, which is pretty much the same thing.

    Edit: I have just realised yo might have thought my comment was aimed at you specifically. Not at all; apologies if it was misconstrued as such. It was an allusion to TimT's final comment, before your post (and again not aimed at him but the situation he mentions).
    To be fair, you can accept global warming whilst also opposing net zero policies if you come to slightly depressing conclusion that it's not going to work with populations in China, Africa and India continuing to grow.

    I'm sympathetic to that position, but still think going for net zero is worth it for a bunch of other reasons (primarily cheap, secure energy provision and air pollution in our cities).

  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,663
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    BBC Weather is now predicting 42C in some places on Tuesday. eg Wittering Peterborough

    Let that sink in. 42C in little old Wittering

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633727

    Shit

    There's a bloke on the reddit thread linked to below saying his flat is routinely 10C warmer than the outside temp. How is he not going to die? How is it legal to build or sell or rent out shit buildings like that? My house is a sort of barely habitable stone igloo but it is consistently cooler in than out (23 vs 26 at the moment)
    My flat is also, regularly, 10C warmer than outside. It's the first floor, with very high ceilings, and floor to ceiling windows. Facing absolutely due south

    I will close the windows and blinds early tomorrow, and they might stay shut til Wednesday dawn. And I shall pray

    If it gets really bad I will go to a hotel
    Same reddit thread points out that skyscrapers in the US have tinted windows to reduce aircon use. Something we don't have in the UK.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,663
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    FPT

    1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

    If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

    Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

    June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

    1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

    1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

    It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

    In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

    The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

    Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

    Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

    There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

    I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
    Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
    Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?

    Who?
    Quite a few folk ... including some Tories. One of us was denying the need for net zero policies only a couple of hours ago, which is pretty much the same thing.

    Edit: I have just realised yo might have thought my comment was aimed at you specifically. Not at all; apologies if it was misconstrued as such. It was an allusion to TimT's final comment, before your post (and again not aimed at him but the situation he mentions).
    To be fair, you can accept global warming whilst also opposing net zero policies if you come to slightly depressing conclusion that it's not going to work with populations in China, Africa and India continuing to grow.

    I'm sympathetic to that position, but still think going for net zero is worth it for a bunch of other reasons (primarily cheap, secure energy provision and air pollution in our cities).

    Also, the gradual warming isn't the primary issue, imo. It's the frequency of these mad weather events.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    My American friend, who lives in Islington/Camden borders, ordered massive aircon units that vent outside some years ago.

    Everyone thought her quite mad.

    She’s laughing now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/16/johnson-plan-peerages-early-byelections-nadine-dorries-nigel-adams

    'Boris Johnson is threatening to set an “early test” for his successor by ensuring they have to face two early byelections as the new Tory leader, the Observer has been told.

    The prime minister is planning to elevate at least two current MPs to the House of Lords well before the next election, triggering two contests that will test public support for whoever replaces him in Downing Street.

    It is understood that he wants to hand peerages to Nigel Adams, a cabinet office minister and one of his closest allies, and culture secretary Nadine Dorries [...]'
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    edited July 2022

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

    Replying to

    @AdamBienkov

    It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

    ---

    She is looking very accident prone

    She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

    She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.
    “her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.”

    That’s because, like everyone else, they don’t have a clue what she was on about.”
    And, presumably, it's no good asking her because she doesn't know?
    Hence deleting all evidence to it, and hope no one noticed.

    She’ll probably deny she ever said it, and Cyclefree will add it to her little list.
    Will not help Mordaunt's attempts to portray herself as serious and thoughtful and thorough, which are qualities we need.

    Having said that, watching the attempts at demonisation narratives being worked out is interesting.

    Here is one in Stylist Magazine (which is quite leftish and fashionably thick) that Suella Braverman has "£159,000 of expenses", which is a narrative that no longer works with anybody half-intelligent because it includes the office staff.
    https://www.stylist.co.uk/news/politics/suella-braverman-benefits-expenses/682484

    Jack Monroe tried that one on when she was abusing my MP Lee Anderson, but has since gone quiet about threats of legal action - presumably out of embarrassment and lawyers explaining twittery to her. No - I'm not defending Anderson, just hoping for a less gormless standard of attack.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    Avenue Road.
    Exactly. THE Park. Primrose Hill. It is the only Royal Park worthy of the name
    Didn't we work out that someone on here was born there also?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    HYUFD said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    FPT

    1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

    If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

    Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

    June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

    1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

    1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

    It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

    In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

    The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

    Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

    Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

    There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

    I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
    Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
    Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?

    Who?
    I suspect our seaside resorts won't be complaining too much if Britain gets Spain's summer temperatures and Spain gets Dubai's summer temperatures.

    Longer term it is a matter of ensuring we have enough fossil fuel free energy, which likely includes nuclear as well as renewables
    They will when they are under water.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    IshmaelZ said:

    Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

    Replying to

    @AdamBienkov

    It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

    ---

    She is looking very accident prone

    She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

    She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.
    “her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.”

    That’s because, like everyone else, they don’t have a clue what she was on about.”
    I.e. she made it up on the spot.
    That is the one explanation that must be wrong. Either she planned to say it, but did not understand the research her SpAd dug up, or it was spur of the moment blurting out of something she only half-remembered something she'd read somewhere.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    My American friend, who lives in Islington/Camden borders, ordered massive aircon units that vent outside some years ago.

    Everyone thought her quite mad.

    She’s laughing now.

    She's creating climate change with her air conditioners.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Leon said:

    BBC Weather is now predicting 42C in some places on Tuesday. eg Wittering Peterborough

    Let that sink in. 42C in little old Wittering

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633727

    Still going with the BBC forecasts rather than the Met Office ones?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    Avenue Road.
    Exactly. THE Park. Primrose Hill. It is the only Royal Park worthy of the name
    Isn't Avenue Road the place for dodgy plutocrats who can't afford Bishops Avenue?

    Can it be reached with a private helicopter?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Leon said:

    If that forecast verifies - 42C in eastern England - then that means the record isn't just broken, it is smashed

    The present record is a mere 38.7C, set in nearby Cambridge in 2019

    I'm starting to think Climate Change might actually be a *thing*

    Best get used to it. This is what 1.1C warming is like and we're going to probably get a peak of 2.2-2.4C warming, and this problem isn't going to go away for 100-120 years.

    Welcome to the new normal.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    Eabhal said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    FPT

    1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

    If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

    Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

    June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

    1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

    1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

    It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

    In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

    The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

    Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

    Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

    There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

    I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
    Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
    Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?

    Who?
    Quite a few folk ... including some Tories. One of us was denying the need for net zero policies only a couple of hours ago, which is pretty much the same thing.

    Edit: I have just realised yo might have thought my comment was aimed at you specifically. Not at all; apologies if it was misconstrued as such. It was an allusion to TimT's final comment, before your post (and again not aimed at him but the situation he mentions).
    To be fair, you can accept global warming whilst also opposing net zero policies if you come to slightly depressing conclusion that it's not going to work with populations in China, Africa and India continuing to grow.

    I'm sympathetic to that position, but still think going for net zero is worth it for a bunch of other reasons (primarily cheap, secure energy provision and air pollution in our cities).
    China and India are most threatened by global warming, so they will take action out of self-interest. Agriculture in China is particularly at risk.
  • ohnotnowohnotnow Posts: 3,785
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    BBC Weather is now predicting 42C in some places on Tuesday. eg Wittering Peterborough

    Let that sink in. 42C in little old Wittering

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633727

    Shit

    There's a bloke on the reddit thread linked to below saying his flat is routinely 10C warmer than the outside temp. How is he not going to die? How is it legal to build or sell or rent out shit buildings like that? My house is a sort of barely habitable stone igloo but it is consistently cooler in than out (23 vs 26 at the moment)
    My flat is also, regularly, 10C warmer than outside. It's the first floor, with very high ceilings, and floor to ceiling windows. Facing absolutely due south

    I will close the windows and blinds early tomorrow, and they might stay shut til Wednesday dawn. And I shall pray

    If it gets really bad I will go to a hotel
    Same reddit thread points out that skyscrapers in the US have tinted windows to reduce aircon use. Something we don't have in the UK.
    I know a software developer who works in Florida. The building aircon is run so high that people take in little heaters to keep their feet warm.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    27 outside, 20.5 inside for me at the moment.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/16/johnson-plan-peerages-early-byelections-nadine-dorries-nigel-adams

    'Boris Johnson is threatening to set an “early test” for his successor by ensuring they have to face two early byelections as the new Tory leader, the Observer has been told.

    The prime minister is planning to elevate at least two current MPs to the House of Lords well before the next election, triggering two contests that will test public support for whoever replaces him in Downing Street.

    It is understood that he wants to hand peerages to Nigel Adams, a cabinet office minister and one of his closest allies, and culture secretary Nadine Dorries [...]'

    I think it’s now fairly clear that The Oaf hates the Conservative Party.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Leon said:

    If that forecast verifies - 42C in eastern England - then that means the record isn't just broken, it is smashed

    The present record is a mere 38.7C, set in nearby Cambridge in 2019

    I'm starting to think Climate Change might actually be a *thing*

    Terrible time for Badenoch to expose herself as being in denial about climate change.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    Nothing particular to fear from this lot. It was always going to be hard work to dismantle an 80 seat majority. Nothing has changed in that regard. Compared to 2019 Labour are stronger and the Tories are far weaker. All to play for.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    Avenue Road.
    Exactly. THE Park. Primrose Hill. It is the only Royal Park worthy of the name
    And also......

    I remember working on a stall at "the Lock" (glass jewellery - we were also at Portobello) when the bloke used to come round collecting £6 per unit.

    35 years. Pah!
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Andy_JS said:

    My American friend, who lives in Islington/Camden borders, ordered massive aircon units that vent outside some years ago.

    Everyone thought her quite mad.

    She’s laughing now.

    She's creating climate change with her air conditioners.
    You’re creating climate change by posting.
    What do you advise her / us? Sweat it out every summer?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557

    Leon said:

    If that forecast verifies - 42C in eastern England - then that means the record isn't just broken, it is smashed

    The present record is a mere 38.7C, set in nearby Cambridge in 2019

    I'm starting to think Climate Change might actually be a *thing*

    Terrible time for Badenoch to expose herself as being in denial about climate change.
    I predict the Met Office forecasts will turn out to be more accurate than the BBC ones.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    edited July 2022
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    Avenue Road.
    Exactly. THE Park. Primrose Hill. It is the only Royal Park worthy of the name
    Isn't Avenue Road the place for dodgy plutocrats who can't afford Bishops Avenue?

    Can it be reached with a private helicopter?
    Who the hell would choose to live in Bishop's Avenue.

    And Winnington Road was the substitute. Both near Kenwood.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.

    It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.

    Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    My American friend, who lives in Islington/Camden borders, ordered massive aircon units that vent outside some years ago.

    Everyone thought her quite mad.

    She’s laughing now.

    She's creating climate change with her air conditioners.
    Hope she's using them intelligently, ie things that which can be sensibly done to keep the cost and energy use down has been done.

    One of my energy reducing enthusiast friends, who has built a huge near-passive house in Edinburgh with an indoor swimming poor, says his American wife looks at him with a "why are you bothering me with this?" expression when he talks about saving on the energy. Very stereotypically American - we're well off so let's ignore the consequences. He has a very good story about what happened to a neighbour's Planning Permission when an underground oil pipe was not where the Local Authority thought it was.

    Was talking to my T yesterday who uses air con to keep her many (7, I think now) dogs happy in the summer in the sun-lounge, and she commented that if she leaves it running whilst out during the day at her new cafe-bar it currently puts her electricity up from around £3.50 per day to £5 (says the smart meter). They may need that for about 3-4 weeks, as it has a huge ventilation fan installed.

    Mine will hopefully cost nothing to run due to the solar. Time will tell.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,719
    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/16/johnson-plan-peerages-early-byelections-nadine-dorries-nigel-adams

    'Boris Johnson is threatening to set an “early test” for his successor by ensuring they have to face two early byelections as the new Tory leader, the Observer has been told.

    The prime minister is planning to elevate at least two current MPs to the House of Lords well before the next election, triggering two contests that will test public support for whoever replaces him in Downing Street.

    It is understood that he wants to hand peerages to Nigel Adams, a cabinet office minister and one of his closest allies, and culture secretary Nadine Dorries [...]'

    Good. Get Dorries well away from the her destroy-the-BBC mission.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.

    It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.

    Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.

    However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting.
    It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    On topic.
    LD Mordaunt.
    Labour Sunak.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447

    Andy_JS said:

    My American friend, who lives in Islington/Camden borders, ordered massive aircon units that vent outside some years ago.

    Everyone thought her quite mad.

    She’s laughing now.

    She's creating climate change with her air conditioners.
    You’re creating climate change by posting.
    What do you advise her / us? Sweat it out every summer?
    We need to get past this. You may as well try and desalinate the pacific ocean using a pipette and a piece of filter paper.

    We all share the same atmosphere. The UK could hit Net Zero by 2040 and it wouldn't make a smidgen of difference unless China, Brazil, India and Russia all do the same.

    Economics will always be the driver. So the only solution is tech and mass roll-out of tech.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/16/johnson-plan-peerages-early-byelections-nadine-dorries-nigel-adams

    'Boris Johnson is threatening to set an “early test” for his successor by ensuring they have to face two early byelections as the new Tory leader, the Observer has been told.

    The prime minister is planning to elevate at least two current MPs to the House of Lords well before the next election, triggering two contests that will test public support for whoever replaces him in Downing Street.

    It is understood that he wants to hand peerages to Nigel Adams, a cabinet office minister and one of his closest allies, and culture secretary Nadine Dorries [...]'

    Good. Get Dorries well away from the her destroy-the-BBC mission.
    Peers can sit in cabinet ...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Going to be weirdly windy Tuesday. Normally when it's hot everything is pond still
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    dixiedean said:

    Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.

    It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.

    Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.

    However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting.
    It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
    Not on the top 100 things to deal with.
    I’ve slowly realised Penny is an empty vessel.

    I still think she’s “favourite”, but I’m beginning to think Rishi will simply go longer and stronger during the campaign with members.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/16/johnson-plan-peerages-early-byelections-nadine-dorries-nigel-adams

    'Boris Johnson is threatening to set an “early test” for his successor by ensuring they have to face two early byelections as the new Tory leader, the Observer has been told.

    The prime minister is planning to elevate at least two current MPs to the House of Lords well before the next election, triggering two contests that will test public support for whoever replaces him in Downing Street.

    It is understood that he wants to hand peerages to Nigel Adams, a cabinet office minister and one of his closest allies, and culture secretary Nadine Dorries [...]'

    I think it’s now fairly clear that The Oaf hates the Conservative Party.
    To be fair to Boris, he is getting Nadine Dorries out of the Commons.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,566
    IanB2 said:

    TimS said:

    FPT

    1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

    If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

    Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

    June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

    1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

    But as a child at the time I remember that 1976 went on for ever and ever.

    How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?

    Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.
    Early August in that 76 summer I went with a family friend who was a long distance lorry driver - from Harwich to Bremerhaven, across Luneberg Heath to East Germany, across East Germany, across Czechoslovakia, across Hungary, down through Yugoslavia and down to Athens. Through the Iron Curtain. And back.

    And it was hellish toasty all the time. Europe was sweltering too.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Jonathan said:

    Nothing particular to fear from this lot. It was always going to be hard work to dismantle an 80 seat majority. Nothing has changed in that regard. Compared to 2019 Labour are stronger and the Tories are far weaker. All to play for.

    Football-team stuff: "this lot", "(we're) stronger", "all to play for"..

    @Jonathan is a more intelligent and shrewd version of @HYUFD

    Discuss.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Pulpstar said:

    Going to be weirdly windy Tuesday. Normally when it's hot everything is pond still

    IT comes, the blast of death! that sudden glare
    Tinges with purple hues the stagnant air:
    Fearful in silence, o’er the heaving strand
    Sweeps the wild gale, and licks the curling sand,
    While o’er the vast Sahara from afar 5
    Rushes the tempest in his wingéd car:
    Swift from their bed the flame-like billows rise
    Whirling and surging to the copper skies,
    As when Briareus lifts his hundred arms,
    Grasps at high heaven, and fills it with alarms; 10
    In eddying chaos madly mixt on high
    Gigantic pillars dance along the sky,
    Or stalk in awful slowness through the gloom,
    Or track the coursers of the dread simoom,
    Or clashing in mid air, to ruin hurled, 15
    Fall as the fragments of a shattered world!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,923

    Jonathan said:

    Nothing particular to fear from this lot. It was always going to be hard work to dismantle an 80 seat majority. Nothing has changed in that regard. Compared to 2019 Labour are stronger and the Tories are far weaker. All to play for.

    Football-team stuff: "this lot", "(we're) stronger", "all to play for"..

    @Jonathan is a more intelligent and shrewd version of @HYUFD

    Discuss.
    Casino is a patronising combination of meat cutlets, discuss
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,566

    Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.

    It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.

    Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.

    Well, it will fuck up Lady Nadine's new soap box..... 🤣
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,923
    dixiedean said:

    Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.

    It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.

    Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.

    However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting.
    It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
    If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    Farooq said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    They can't go everywhere. I'd be surprised if Carlisle is in the top 100 towns in terms of population, so what does he expect?
    Well, let's see: this area has had Labour MPs for quite some time. It was our constituency turning blue in 2017 which marked one of the shifts to the Tories. Then the rest in 2019. The recent local elections have been bad for the Tories so if they wanted to test opinion in an area which they ought to be holding onto it might make sense to have some hustings - in Barrow or Carlisle or even Lancaster or Preston.

    He doesn't expect much from any political party. He was a little surprised that they weren't even making an effort to listen to or make the case to a party of the country which is meant to be part of this venerated Red Wall. There is plenty of time for them to do so over the summer. Mrs May made the effort to come up here. So the 2 could bloody well do so as well.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,566
    Pulpstar said:

    Going to be weirdly windy Tuesday. Normally when it's hot everything is pond still

    Gorgeous breeze down here in Devon today. Wonderfully clement, but not what you would call hot.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    Avenue Road.
    As was I. In the same clinic at the bottom end near the Park.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161
    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    Avenue Road.
    Exactly. THE Park. Primrose Hill. It is the only Royal Park worthy of the name
    Isn't Avenue Road the place for dodgy plutocrats who can't afford Bishops Avenue?

    Can it be reached with a private helicopter?
    Who the hell would choose to live in Bishop's Avenue.

    And Winnington Road was the substitute. Both near Kenwood.
    Someone with lots of cash and a helicopter :smile:
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,663
    If elected, Sunak will make a big splash on the global stage. His election will be presented as a big deal. A bit like Obama. You will see him with Macron, Trudeau etc. That presents some risk for Labour, but it’s the economy that will determine the next election.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    Avenue Road.
    As was I. In the same clinic at the bottom end near the Park.
    There you are I knew there were two of us!

    No.12 I think. It's now a block of flats.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,566
    Pulpstar said:

    Going to be weirdly windy Tuesday. Normally when it's hot everything is pond still

    We're ALL going to get the hairdryer treatment.....
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    MattW said:

    TOPPING said:

    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    Avenue Road.
    Exactly. THE Park. Primrose Hill. It is the only Royal Park worthy of the name
    Isn't Avenue Road the place for dodgy plutocrats who can't afford Bishops Avenue?

    Can it be reached with a private helicopter?
    Who the hell would choose to live in Bishop's Avenue.

    And Winnington Road was the substitute. Both near Kenwood.
    Someone with lots of cash and a helicopter :smile:
    I think most/many of the places in Bishop's Avenue are vacant.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,161

    IshmaelZ said:

    Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

    Replying to

    @AdamBienkov

    It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

    ---

    She is looking very accident prone

    She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

    She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.
    “her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.”

    That’s because, like everyone else, they don’t have a clue what she was on about.”
    I.e. she made it up on the spot.
    That is the one explanation that must be wrong. Either she planned to say it, but did not understand the research her SpAd dug up, or it was spur of the moment blurting out of something she only half-remembered something she'd read somewhere.
    The quote-picture-tweet suggests planning.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    ...
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    BBC Weather is now predicting 42C in some places on Tuesday. eg Wittering Peterborough

    Let that sink in. 42C in little old Wittering

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633727

    Shit

    There's a bloke on the reddit thread linked to below saying his flat is routinely 10C warmer than the outside temp. How is he not going to die? How is it legal to build or sell or rent out shit buildings like that? My house is a sort of barely habitable stone igloo but it is consistently cooler in than out (23 vs 26 at the moment)
    My flat is also, regularly, 10C warmer than outside. It's the first floor, with very high ceilings, and floor to ceiling windows. Facing absolutely due south

    I will close the windows and blinds early tomorrow, and they might stay shut til Wednesday dawn. And I shall pray

    If it gets really bad I will go to a hotel
    It may of course be far too soon for us to, well, meet. But I have a delightfully appointed very spacious cool house with sea views and much shade roundabouts. We need never meet at all and you, poor overheated refugee from the London inferno, can rest awhile. There is even a beautiful old church drawn by Turner for you to pray in.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Pulpstar said:

    Going to be weirdly windy Tuesday. Normally when it's hot everything is pond still

    Gorgeous breeze down here in Devon today. Wonderfully clement, but not what you would call hot.
    Same on the glorious North East Coast in south Tyneside.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    IshmaelZ said:

    Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

    Replying to

    @AdamBienkov

    It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

    ---

    She is looking very accident prone

    She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

    She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.
    Believe that PM4PM posted a web-ad or something re: 180 (or maybe another number?) BEFORE Friday debate.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.

    It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.

    Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.

    However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting.
    It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
    If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
    Not just in the long run.
    Nobody who suggests an elected HoL has really thought it out. It’s a bit like those who want an English parliament.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Penny Mordaunt followed by a 2023 election is bad news for both oppo parties. She’ll be an effective campaigner but possibly ineffective administrator. So an election during a honeymoon period hot on the heels of a major political reset = Tory majority
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nothing particular to fear from this lot. It was always going to be hard work to dismantle an 80 seat majority. Nothing has changed in that regard. Compared to 2019 Labour are stronger and the Tories are far weaker. All to play for.

    Football-team stuff: "this lot", "(we're) stronger", "all to play for"..

    @Jonathan is a more intelligent and shrewd version of @HYUFD

    Discuss.
    Casino is a patronising combination of meat cutlets, discuss
    Stylish insult. Deserves a like.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,566
    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/16/johnson-plan-peerages-early-byelections-nadine-dorries-nigel-adams

    'Boris Johnson is threatening to set an “early test” for his successor by ensuring they have to face two early byelections as the new Tory leader, the Observer has been told.

    The prime minister is planning to elevate at least two current MPs to the House of Lords well before the next election, triggering two contests that will test public support for whoever replaces him in Downing Street.

    It is understood that he wants to hand peerages to Nigel Adams, a cabinet office minister and one of his closest allies, and culture secretary Nadine Dorries [...]'

    Good. Get Dorries well away from the her destroy-the-BBC mission.
    Peers can sit in cabinet ...
    You think Nadine gets a Cabinet seat with ANY of the final five?

    Nah....
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    dixiedean said:

    Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.

    It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.

    Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.

    However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting.
    It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
    Not on the top 100 things to deal with.
    I’ve slowly realised Penny is an empty vessel.

    I still think she’s “favourite”, but I’m beginning to think Rishi will simply go longer and stronger during the campaign with members.
    No it isn't you're right.
    But if we are at the Cones Hotline stage, there are more damaging projects for busywork.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022
    The only sensible choices for leader are Rishi Sunak or Kemi Badenoch IMO.
  • RattersRatters Posts: 1,076
    IshmaelZ said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    Carnyx said:

    MattW said:

    TimS said:

    FPT

    1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.

    If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.

    Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.

    June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.

    1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.

    1976 was more that that, and generally I don't think we are anywhere near that yet.

    It was for three months and nearly 18C average:

    In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave

    The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.

    Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.

    Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.

    There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.

    I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
    Even so, the denial is a bit like saying house fires dont' exist because the average temperature of a burnt down house is about 25 degC averaged out for a year.
    Is anyone still in denial about the gradual warming of the climate and the need to continue to address it?

    Who?
    Quite a few folk ... including some Tories. One of us was denying the need for net zero policies only a couple of hours ago, which is pretty much the same thing.

    Edit: I have just realised yo might have thought my comment was aimed at you specifically. Not at all; apologies if it was misconstrued as such. It was an allusion to TimT's final comment, before your post (and again not aimed at him but the situation he mentions).
    I think the logic is now

    It is a problem

    There is no free market solution to it

    Therefore there is no solution to it
    It's from people who didn't think to read past the first chapter of their economics textbooks. Free markets do not take into account externalities, so once you've identified something (emitting carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases) that has a large negative impact (rapid climate change) on someone other than the consumer/producer of a good (in this case the whole world and future generations), then some form of taxation and regulation are the only solutions.

    The only choice is between incurring costs to mitigate the impact by decarbonising, or incurring costs by adapting to climate change once it's already happened. In practice the latter just kicks the can down the road as warming will continue until we decarbonise.

    Action should be equally acceptable to the left and right from an economic theory perspective, with debate over the best policy mix.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,923

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.

    It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.

    Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.

    However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting.
    It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
    If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
    Not just in the long run.
    Nobody who suggests an elected HoL has really thought it out. It’s a bit like those who want an English parliament.
    Though at least an English Parliament only gives England the same parity with the other Home Nations. An elected House of Lords would drastically reduce the power of the House of Commons however
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Pulpstar said:

    Going to be weirdly windy Tuesday. Normally when it's hot everything is pond still

    Looks like it's the southerly wind from the Sahara that's going to be causing the hot weather.
  • EabhalEabhal Posts: 8,663
    To pair two of PB's favourite topics, we need to shift Her Maj up to Balmoral asap. 35c in Windsor.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,923
    edited July 2022
    Jonathan said:

    If elected, Sunak will make a big splash on the global stage. His election will be presented as a big deal. A bit like Obama. You will see him with Macron, Trudeau etc. That presents some risk for Labour, but it’s the economy that will determine the next election.

    Except Obama, Macron and Trudeau were or are all leaders of the liberal left, so not sure how that goes down with conservatives back home
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.

    It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.

    Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.

    However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting.
    It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
    If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
    Not just in the long run.
    Nobody who suggests an elected HoL has really thought it out. It’s a bit like those who want an English parliament.
    Though at least an English Parliament only gives England the same parity with the other Home Nations. An elected House of Lords would drastically reduce the power of the House of Commons however
    Conceptual parity, but not actual or consequential parity.

  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    NEW @JLPartnersPolls for The Sunday @Telegraph

    We polled a representative sample of 4,500 people and used MrP to model it onto seats - with awareness of candidates factored in.

    In 76% of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, Rishi Sunak has the highest net 'good PM' rating (1/6)

    .. I’m probably coming around to Rishi being the most competent

    Yup, I think that's true and the answer to Mike's hypothetical.

    I don't see any candidate who could hope to lead the Conservatives to anything more than opposition with most Parliamentary seats. Rishi has the best chance of doing that; Badenoch might, but may equally prove a catastrophe.

    The others would struggle to stave off a Labour majority. Truss would be particularly disastrous but happily for Con supporters that boat appears to have sailed, empty of cargo.

    Tugenhat would be awkward for the LDs but he'd be anathema to a large portion of his Party so it doesn't matter; t'aint gonna happen.
    I’m seeing Rishi as PM, Mordaunt Home, Truss gone. Badenoch difficult - I’d want her at Education because I think she’d be fantastic but she might want something more senior. Tug probably justifies a junior cabinet role.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    Carnyx said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

    Replying to

    @AdamBienkov

    It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

    ---

    She is looking very accident prone

    She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

    She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.
    “her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.”

    That’s because, like everyone else, they don’t have a clue what she was on about.”
    And, presumably, it's no good asking her because she doesn't know?
    Hence deleting all evidence to it, and hope no one noticed.

    She’ll probably deny she ever said it, and Cyclefree will add it to her little list.
    She received money from a climate change denier. Why?

    Mind you, Kemi's claims on climate change have been rubbished by some scientists.

    For all his faults Sunak may end up being the least worst option.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    HYUFD said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nothing particular to fear from this lot. It was always going to be hard work to dismantle an 80 seat majority. Nothing has changed in that regard. Compared to 2019 Labour are stronger and the Tories are far weaker. All to play for.

    Football-team stuff: "this lot", "(we're) stronger", "all to play for"..

    @Jonathan is a more intelligent and shrewd version of @HYUFD

    Discuss.
    Casino is a patronising combination of meat cutlets, discuss
    So, you can surprise: genuinely witty and creative for once.

    More please.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310

    NEW @JLPartnersPolls for The Sunday @Telegraph

    We polled a representative sample of 4,500 people and used MrP to model it onto seats - with awareness of candidates factored in.

    In 76% of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, Rishi Sunak has the highest net 'good PM' rating (1/6)

    .. I’m probably coming around to Rishi being the most competent

    Yup, I think that's true and the answer to Mike's hypothetical.

    I don't see any candidate who could hope to lead the Conservatives to anything more than opposition with most Parliamentary seats. Rishi has the best chance of doing that; Badenoch might, but may equally prove a catastrophe.

    The others would struggle to stave off a Labour majority. Truss would be particularly disastrous but happily for Con supporters that boat appears to have sailed, empty of cargo.

    Tugenhat would be awkward for the LDs but he'd be anathema to a large portion of his Party so it doesn't matter; t'aint gonna happen.
    I’m seeing Rishi as PM, Mordaunt Home, Truss gone. Badenoch difficult - I’d want her at Education because I think she’d be fantastic but she might want something more senior. Tug probably justifies a junior cabinet role.
    Mordaunt as Home Secretary will destroy any future hopes she might entertain. An absolute graveyard that post.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Jonathan said:

    If elected, Sunak will make a big splash on the global stage. His election will be presented as a big deal. A bit like Obama. You will see him with Macron, Trudeau etc. That presents some risk for Labour, but it’s the economy that will determine the next election.

    Sunak is second generation, Kemi is first. That would blow a lot of minds if a Nigerian immigrant became Prime Minister, especially at such a young age. But yes Rishi would do similar internationally.

    What’s interesting to me is how little race has featured in this election. No one was talking Javid up or down as the son of Pakistani immigrants, ditto Rishi with India or Braverman / Mauritius, Zahawi first Gen Iraq, Kemi first Gen Nigeria.

    There’s been tangential discussion from a left/right point scoring prism but that’s about it. Underlines to me how UK society is far more structured around class than race. Hence “Rishi is the tax raising Davos man”, “Javid just another banker” etc…

    Those that like to do our society down and who so willingly hitched a ride on the BLM train would do well to ponder this.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Eabhal said:

    To pair two of PB's favourite topics, we need to shift Her Maj up to Balmoral asap. 35c in Windsor.

    Put her in Boris’s fridge for a couple of days.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Eabhal said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Leon said:

    BBC Weather is now predicting 42C in some places on Tuesday. eg Wittering Peterborough

    Let that sink in. 42C in little old Wittering

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633727

    Shit

    There's a bloke on the reddit thread linked to below saying his flat is routinely 10C warmer than the outside temp. How is he not going to die? How is it legal to build or sell or rent out shit buildings like that? My house is a sort of barely habitable stone igloo but it is consistently cooler in than out (23 vs 26 at the moment)
    My flat is also, regularly, 10C warmer than outside. It's the first floor, with very high ceilings, and floor to ceiling windows. Facing absolutely due south

    I will close the windows and blinds early tomorrow, and they might stay shut til Wednesday dawn. And I shall pray

    If it gets really bad I will go to a hotel
    Same reddit thread points out that skyscrapers in the US have tinted windows to reduce aircon use. Something we don't have in the UK.
    I just got the cheap bastards who own my humble abode in Seattle to spring for tinting my windows, using film applied to window using water & a squeegee.

    Appears to be doing a good job so far moderating indoor temp in my south-facing apartment. But have NOT had a real heatwave yet this year . . . and I am NOT lobbying for one!
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    MattW said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Here's what Penny Mordaunt claimed about the NHS during the Channel Four debate last night. Since then the tweets she posted making the same claim have been deleted from her account and her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568

    https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192

    Replying to

    @AdamBienkov

    It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/

    ---

    She is looking very accident prone

    She will get taken apart by Starmer, who sticks religiously on message.

    She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.
    “her team have not responded to requests to explain what her claim was based on.”

    That’s because, like everyone else, they don’t have a clue what she was on about.”
    I.e. she made it up on the spot.
    That is the one explanation that must be wrong. Either she planned to say it, but did not understand the research her SpAd dug up, or it was spur of the moment blurting out of something she only half-remembered something she'd read somewhere.
    The quote-picture-tweet suggests planning.
    It is very odd. I'm starting to wonder if someone set her up. Dunno. Let's see if there is anything in the Sundays.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Andy_JS said:

    The only sensible choices for leader are Rishi Sunak or Kemi Badenoch IMO.

    That's where I'm ending up.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,310
    TOPPING said:

    Cyclefree said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    TOPPING said:

    Leon said:

    Cyclefree said:

    An exceedingly pleasant 20 degrees here. My banana and citrus plants are doing very well indeed.

    Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online

    Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years.
    Thus speaks an incomer. What a meaningless statement to make about "Camden Market" at the weekend in summer.
    WTF are you on about, you big rank hairy twat? I've lived in London for 35+ years, nearly always within walking distance of Camden Market. For the last 11 years I have lived 300 metres away from the Market

    The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
    It is always busy you plonker. Covid notwithstanding. You incomer.
    If I recall correctly you were born west of the Park. You know nothing
    Avenue Road.
    As was I. In the same clinic at the bottom end near the Park.
    There you are I knew there were two of us!

    No.12 I think. It's now a block of flats.
    That's the one. Would it be rude of me to ask the year?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,957
    "Kemi would be my first choice, I could tolerate Truss, Mordaunt lacks substance, Tug is a bit wet and Sunak.....I can no more vote for a party led by him than I can live in a country he governs; inept, economically illiterate, smug, backstabbing and completely devoid of empathy and understanding of the real world."

    Views from the frothing wing of the Cons Party. Comment from under one MP's post about the contest.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    What are Kemi’s false climate claims?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    Reading Penny's book - although I suspect it's basically ghost-written by Chris Lewis.

    It's a lot of waffle: what sort of country we are, then long-winded wax-lyricising about our challenges, with some statistics thrown in, and plenty more waffle about the statistics, but very light on solutions.

    Its main premise seems to be to abolish the House of Lords, as if that will fix everything.

    However. A Tory leader ditching the House of Lords would be interesting.
    It needs radical reform. And too much time for an incoming government to waste on it.
    If the House of Lords is replaced by an elected second chamber, it likely just leads to the legislative deadlock we see in the USA in the long run
    Most places get by with two elected chambers, but the Commons would need to think very carefully what kind of chamber it wants if it replaces the Lords.

    Given how governments dislike scrutiny, I'd suspect they'd be more in favour of unicameralism.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Cyclefree said:

    NEW @JLPartnersPolls for The Sunday @Telegraph

    We polled a representative sample of 4,500 people and used MrP to model it onto seats - with awareness of candidates factored in.

    In 76% of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, Rishi Sunak has the highest net 'good PM' rating (1/6)

    .. I’m probably coming around to Rishi being the most competent

    Yup, I think that's true and the answer to Mike's hypothetical.

    I don't see any candidate who could hope to lead the Conservatives to anything more than opposition with most Parliamentary seats. Rishi has the best chance of doing that; Badenoch might, but may equally prove a catastrophe.

    The others would struggle to stave off a Labour majority. Truss would be particularly disastrous but happily for Con supporters that boat appears to have sailed, empty of cargo.

    Tugenhat would be awkward for the LDs but he'd be anathema to a large portion of his Party so it doesn't matter; t'aint gonna happen.
    I’m seeing Rishi as PM, Mordaunt Home, Truss gone. Badenoch difficult - I’d want her at Education because I think she’d be fantastic but she might want something more senior. Tug probably justifies a junior cabinet role.
    Mordaunt as Home Secretary will destroy any future hopes she might entertain. An absolute
    graveyard that post.
    Rishi PM, no idea who his chancellor is. Gove perhaps if he shifts camp when Kemi gets knocked out? TT foreign sec and Kemi at Home are appointments that write themselves. Wallace only other surviving Cabinet member at Defence prior to the NATO gig. Truss would need some time on the backbenchers. Mordaunt is the tricky one to place. She’d need a high profile job but you don’t want to make her Chancellor if the rumours of her abilities are true. Deputy PM and something I suppose.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    TOPPING said:

    "Kemi would be my first choice, I could tolerate Truss, Mordaunt lacks substance, Tug is a bit wet and Sunak.....I can no more vote for a party led by him than I can live in a country he governs; inept, economically illiterate, smug, backstabbing and completely devoid of empathy and understanding of the real world."

    Views from the frothing wing of the Cons Party. Comment from under one MP's post about the contest.

    That's extremely strong - Tory members bloody loved him not 6 months ago.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    Carnyx said:

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/16/johnson-plan-peerages-early-byelections-nadine-dorries-nigel-adams

    'Boris Johnson is threatening to set an “early test” for his successor by ensuring they have to face two early byelections as the new Tory leader, the Observer has been told.

    The prime minister is planning to elevate at least two current MPs to the House of Lords well before the next election, triggering two contests that will test public support for whoever replaces him in Downing Street.

    It is understood that he wants to hand peerages to Nigel Adams, a cabinet office minister and one of his closest allies, and culture secretary Nadine Dorries [...]'

    Good. Get Dorries well away from the her destroy-the-BBC mission.
    Peers can sit in cabinet ...
    You think Nadine gets a Cabinet seat with ANY of the final five?

    Nah....
    I hear Penny Mordaunt will make Nadine Dorries ambassador to Afghanistan.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899

    NEW @JLPartnersPolls for The Sunday @Telegraph

    We polled a representative sample of 4,500 people and used MrP to model it onto seats - with awareness of candidates factored in.

    In 76% of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, Rishi Sunak has the highest net 'good PM' rating (1/6)

    .. I’m probably coming around to Rishi being the most competent

    Yup, I think that's true and the answer to Mike's hypothetical.

    I don't see any candidate who could hope to lead the Conservatives to anything more than opposition with most Parliamentary seats. Rishi has the best chance of doing that; Badenoch might, but may equally prove a catastrophe.

    The others would struggle to stave off a Labour majority. Truss would be particularly disastrous but happily for Con supporters that boat appears to have sailed, empty of cargo.

    Tugenhat would be awkward for the LDs but he'd be anathema to a large portion of his Party so it doesn't matter; t'aint gonna happen.
    I’m seeing Rishi as PM, Mordaunt Home, Truss gone. Badenoch difficult - I’d want her at Education because I think she’d be fantastic but she might want something more senior. Tug probably justifies a junior cabinet role.
    Getting shot of Truss is possible but risky if she is backed by a quarter to a third of the parliamentary party, as each of the top three may be. Whoever is new leader will need to think about party management.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Can anyone point to a decent/memorable speech that Kemi Badenoch has ever delivered that would gird my loins and millions of other ordinary voters like myself?

    Ditto a policy.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    There’s another vote on Monday, yes?
    Is it actually safe to hold a vote at Westminster?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883

    Carnyx said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jul/16/johnson-plan-peerages-early-byelections-nadine-dorries-nigel-adams

    'Boris Johnson is threatening to set an “early test” for his successor by ensuring they have to face two early byelections as the new Tory leader, the Observer has been told.

    The prime minister is planning to elevate at least two current MPs to the House of Lords well before the next election, triggering two contests that will test public support for whoever replaces him in Downing Street.

    It is understood that he wants to hand peerages to Nigel Adams, a cabinet office minister and one of his closest allies, and culture secretary Nadine Dorries [...]'

    I think it’s now fairly clear that The Oaf hates the Conservative Party.
    To be fair to Boris, he is getting Nadine Dorries out of the Commons.
    Do you mind...Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries....

    :smiley:
This discussion has been closed.