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Which contenders should LAB and the LDs fear most? – politicalbetting.com
Which contenders should LAB and the LDs fear most? – politicalbetting.com
This is entirely unscientific but I’ve been trying to work out which of the Tory contenders the LDs and LAB would least like to face at the general election.
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2.08 Penny Mordaunt 48%
3.05 Rishi Sunak 33%
6.6 Liz Truss 15%
28 Kemi Badenoch
55 Tom Tugendhat
310 Dominic Raab
To make the final two
1.1 Rishi Sunak 91%
1.35 Penny Mordaunt 74%
3.1 Liz Truss 32%
16 Kemi Badenoch 6%
46 Tom Tugendhat
1976: not only were the Synoptics absolutely unique and not yet repeated, but the UK had the biggest warm anomaly of anywhere on earth that summer, with blues on the anomaly map across much of the rest of the planet. Now we are just one bit of a vast sea of red and orange, despite it being a (relatively cool) La Niña year globally.
If we saw June-July Synoptics in 2022 we would get a repeat of 1976, but with temperatures a degree of two higher.
Indeed this morning’s GFS run showed essentially a 1976-style run of hot days from next weekend, 34-36C day after day. Massive outlier big shows what would happen if we ever repeated the pattern.
June 1976 averaged 17.0C in central England, the same as July 2022 so far, before the heatwave.
1976 is the “we survived the blitz” of modern British climate denial.
How can a heatwave that starts on Monday and lasts until Tuesday possibly compete?
Although tbf I see the boffins are suggesting we might get a replay the week following.
We polled a representative sample of 4,500 people and used MrP to model it onto seats - with awareness of candidates factored in.
In 76% of seats the Conservatives won in 2019, Rishi Sunak has the highest net 'good PM' rating (1/6)
.. I’m probably coming around to Rishi being the most competent
This is pretty extraordinary. The Rwanda policy to deport refugees is apparently "toxic" to Tory voters in the party's blue wall heartlands yet not one of the five candidates for the party leadership is prepared to speak out against it. https://twitter.com/Simon_Nixon/status/1548285137858596866/photo/1
SF 36% (+1)
FF 20% (nc)
FG 18% (-2)
Lab 4% (nc)
Grn 3% (-2)
PBP/S 3% (+1)
SD 2% (nc)
Aon 1% (nc)
oth 14% (+4)
14 July (+/- 8 Dec)
Mordaunt shouldn't trouble Starmer or Nippy. However she doesn't scare the Blue wall horses, which might be to her advantage against the LDs.
I don't see any candidate who could hope to lead the Conservatives to anything more than opposition with most Parliamentary seats. Rishi has the best chance of doing that; Badenoch might, but may equally prove a catastrophe.
The others would struggle to stave off a Labour majority. Truss would be particularly disastrous but happily for Con supporters that boat appears to have sailed, empty of cargo.
Tugenhat would be awkward for the LDs but he'd be anathema to a large portion of his Party so it doesn't matter; t'aint gonna happen.
I think Sturgeon would prefer to face Sunak. Truss would be an absolute dream.
I think most SCons want Mordaunt.
My gut instinct says vote Mordaunt. She is the best of the females and we need a female PM. We have had enough of the men screwing things up of late.
(except for the logical flaw that if these aliens are sophisticated enough to have got here across gazillions of light-years of deep space, surely they can do better than produce someone like Truss?)
None of them are Labour destroyers, Penny/Rishi have the best chance of winning a small majority but I think Penny will really struggle to talk her way out of 12 years of failure and policies she supported. Rishi is the best at "hard truths" but he has wedded himself to Boris Johnson.
The "time for a change" angle is going to be massive at the next election, I think Labour has a good chance of at minimum, forming a minority Government.
AP - Abortion issue changes landscape in new Oregon district
Booming population growth made Oregon one of just six states to gain an additional seat in the U.S. House following the 2020 census. The state’s population jumped by more than 10% in the past decade to more than 4.2 million people, giving it a new congressional district for the first time in 40 years.
The newly created 6th District stretches from the affluent suburbs southwest of Portland down to the state capital Salem, and also includes rural areas across a broad swath of the Willamette Valley, one of Oregon’s major agricultural regions.
Democrats hope the new district will add to their advantage in Oregon, where they controlled four of the state’s previous five U.S. House seats. But Republicans also see an opportunity in November, hoping to capitalize on dissatisfaction with the party in power amidst soaring inflation.
But issue of abortion could complicate GOP efforts to win in a district many observers saw tilting toward the Democrats even before the controversial U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade.
“These are really favorable conditions for Republicans,” said Christopher Stout, associate professor of political science at Oregon State University. “But the last couple weeks have kind of switched that around.” . . .
But while opinion polls show an uptick in the number of people listing abortion as a top issue, economic concerns remain at the forefront of voters’ minds.
The national campaign arms of both parties are watching the race. [Republican Mike] Erickson has been listed as “on the radar” by the National Republican Congressional Committee. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named [Andrea] Salinas to its “Red to Blue” program, a move not only providing her with organizational and financial support, but also indicating the party’s concerns about how safe the seat may be. . . .
https://apnews.com/article/abortion-2022-midterm-elections-us-supreme-court-salem-congress-2d2073b9bfe4f33c39b28304b9325195
SSI - Had a pony in this horse race . . . until the May primary. Salinas is somewhat to the left, but she's an excellent candidate, running against an anti-abortion zealot in a district that leans Democratic. He's soft-peddling his rhetoric THIS time, but she ain't gonna let him get away with THAT.
My guess is that, despite midterm challenges (!) for the Dems, the repeal of RvW will scupper the GOP in new Oregon 5th district.
No doubt long-term PBers, even if generally supportive of conservative Republicans, will cheer an electoral victory for . . . wait for it . . . Andrea!
The Tories start with a large majority, a Tory leader who can simply reocver a little could do enough to prevent Labour victory. Which one is the lowest risk of causing more issue, and best chance of holding onto previous gains?
Probably Mordaunt.
The Aliens have clearly been observing Daily Mail readers and have constructed Truss in their likeness.
Personally even if it is lawful the ineffectiveness and wrongness of it should be enough.
For the first question it's the candidates that present more of a change from the Johnson government that are a greater threat, because even in a couple of years' time they might still look more like change than a cautious Sir Keir Starmer.
For the second question it now looks clear to me that Truss presents the greatest threat in terms of what she might do in office over two years and how she might damage the political culture.
That leaves Sunak. Over whom there are some doubts with respect to Ukraine specifically, but otherwise he seems like he's the most predictable candidate - we've all known for ages that he plans to cut income tax rates before the next GE - and the easiest for Starmer to defeat.
What Labour want most of all, though, is for Johnson to sulk on the backbenches and plot his political return. Another leadership no confidence vote, or leadership election, before the next GE, would present a level of disunity that would make the Tories a laughing stock.
The greatest threat to the Tories is not necessarily choosing the wrong person to be PM, but in not being able to unite behind that person.
Let us suppose TT gains from last night and gets into the 40's on Monday, surely KB will lose support and may then just be last, she drops out. TT is still in it. PM again fails to shine in the debates TT does, then the final three could be RS, LT and TT. What could happen then is up for grabs.
What makes it funny is not just the confusion Liz is going through, but the concerned looks on the faces of her supporters.
Is this a metaphor?
Yep!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PEyV_BsS3KI
If the latter, they should be insanely, deliriously, even orgasmically happy about the prospect of Truss as leader.
If the former, the sheer bowel loosening terror at the thought of cheese lady anywhere near power will probably cancel that out.
Is this maybe a little overblown or are we missing the worst of it?
Leadership elections though are not just about picking a candidate your opponents fear but also someone who represents your party's core convictions
Repeating that is always going to be difficult, especially with no Corbyn and no Johnson. But a policy like this that repels the larger part of the Conservative coalition, isn't going to help.
For all some Conservatives wish they could be US Republicans or Aussie Liberals, that's not likely to work in the UK.
** Which I can't find a youtube video of now. Which is making me wonder if I made it up. But I'm sure I remember three forecasters in front of the weather map with Edwardian boaters singing it.
It was for three months and nearly 18C average:
In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave
The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.
Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.
Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.
I would caution about putting too much stock in one or two debate performances though: for instance, people have found Penny likeable, personable and an effective communicator for a long time. She has often been touted on here and elsewhere as a possible leader. One slightly squiffy performance at a debate does not a general election loser make - though it can highlight weaknesses.
As a hunch I would say Penny and Kemi are both gambles that stand the greatest chance of delivering a majority at the next GE, but could also crash and burn miserably. Truss will just crash and burn. Labour have their attack lines ready for Rishi and I think the Tories will struggle under him, though he is probably the best presentationally. TT is an also ran.
Labour will clearly hand it over as a condition for support.
Truss, agreed - wouldn't be feared at all.
Mordaunt probably could appeal across both sides (socially liberal but military background may appeal to RW voters) but I think from now on she would be handicapped given what has been raised in the contest. She might be seen as too woke on certain issues.
Badenoch - agree with Mike, more appeal in the RW. Blue Wall might be interesting - ideologically, she would be at risk of putting off voters but there might be a reticence amongst certain types to vote against a black female PM. The latter is only a gut feel.
Tuggy - agree with Mike.
.....
It was for three months and nearly 18C average:
In the Central England Temperature series, 1976 is the hottest summer for more than 350 years. The average temperature over the whole summer (June, July, August) was 17.77 °C (63.99 °F), compared to the average for the unusually warm years between 2001–2008 of 16.30 °C (61.34 °F).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1976_British_Isles_heat_wave
The noticeable thing for me this year - Midlands - so far is the changeability of it. We have had a heat wave in spring, plus a cold period. Followed by May/June/July where we have continued to receive periodic rain - my garden water butts keep getting refilled by showers and overnight rain before they run completely dry.
Also the water problems in 1976 were also due to an extended serious shortage of rain from Summer 75 / Autumn 75 / Winter 75 / Spring 76.
Even in 2018 hosepipe bans started at the end of June. To date this year none are in place.
There are also background factors, such as reduced water reduced leakage in the supply.
I was going to add in reduced leakage, but when I can find immediate estimates that domestic is either 5% or 50% of total usage, I don't think that reliable figures exist.
Husband has been invited to sign up for hustings. The nearest in person ones will be in Newcastle. None in this part of the NorthWest. He is not impressed by that. So it will be online
Boomers have the advantage of having been there.
https://mobile.twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1548290880196333568
https://mobile.twitter.com/TheLondonLawye1/status/1548292444789256192
Replying to
@AdamBienkov
It’s probably this - 180 companies have had NHS funding for innovations - horribly misconstrued: https://england.nhs.uk/aac/what-we-do/how-can-the-aac-help-me/sbri-healthcare/
---
She is looking very accident prone
Chatted with one of the guys and he said they weren't working at all Monday and Tuesday, so people really are paying attention. And as we talked you could feel the heat surging, subtly. It is in the post. It is on the way
On the other hand North London is en fete. An absolute party atmosphere prevails in Camden Market, which is as busy as I've seen it in years. Thronging and happy
"Leveling Up" is also proving toxic. The Red Wall doesn't believe it is happening and the Blue Wall believes it means levelling down for themselves.
As a current Lib Dem member, who voted Conservative in 2010 and was within the last 2 decades a member of the Labour Party my politics is pretty centre-swing voter territory.
I won't be voting Conservative because of Brexit, but of these five it is only Mordaunt or Sunak that I could be even slightly tempted to vote for.
And then it was hot, but now it is hot
Or what?
She clearly thought it was a applause moment with the crowd going wild, not clear if she thought of it off the cuff or not but she's proving to be a total lightweight.
The Tories have tried to find an issue that unites them but they will need to hope Starmer gets run over by a bus.
https://mobile.twitter.com/binaryape/status/1548040814437093387
This coming out with any old guff on the spur of the moment is horribly familiar. 40 new hospitals and all that, remember?
That’s because, like everyone else, they don’t have a clue what she was on about.”
Let that sink in. 42C in little old Wittering
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2633727
The present record is a mere 38.7C, set in nearby Cambridge in 2019
I'm starting to think Climate Change might actually be a *thing*
The Market has grown busier and busier over that time (as it has expanded). Covid interrupted this, now the expansion continues
It rained on my graduation day in Manchester.
Liz wasn’t as bad as advertised.
Tugendhat was insipid.
Mordaunt looked “badly briefed”, she was not always coherent.
Rishi was smarmy but on top of his detail. It was disappointing that no other candidate was able to put him under pressure as he is vulnerable to forensic attack.
We both independently thought Kemi our choice - someone who projects intelligence, coherence and conviction.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/16/tory-leadership-race-rishi-sunak-keir-starmer-uk-politics-live-latest-news?page=with:block-62d2aa398f086e8f936977cf#block-62d2aa398f086e8f936977cf
-- Sir Tony Blair has issued a rallying call to western nations to come together to develop a coherent strategy to counter the rise of China as “the world’s second superpower”.
"How did Britain ever reach a point where Nigel Farage and Jeremy Corbyn came for a short but consequential time to shape our politics? Or America to a place where whether you got vaccinated denoted political allegiance?
The craziness in our own politics has to stop. We can’t afford the luxury of indulging fantasy. We need to put reason and strategy back in the saddle. And we need to do so with urgency."
I fear Tom and then Penny next.
I also agree with your last sentence, but if you think this why did you support Boris for so long?
Who?
To deliver Brexit and beat Corbyn, which he did.
In terms of tax rises it was of course Sunak who has been heaviest on that.
Edit: I have just realised yo might have thought my comment was aimed at you specifically. Not at all; apologies if it was misconstrued as such. It was an allusion to TimT's final comment, before your post (and again not aimed at him but the situation he mentions).
There's a bloke on the reddit thread linked to below saying his flat is routinely 10C warmer than the outside temp. How is he not going to die? How is it legal to build or sell or rent out shit buildings like that? My house is a sort of barely habitable stone igloo but it is consistently cooler in than out (23 vs 26 at the moment)
Climate Scientists would never have received ethics approval for an experiment like this if they'd asked for it, but they're crafty buggers and they managed to trick you into going ahead with the experiment anyway. Masters of reverse psychology!