If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
Sunak and Mordaunt voted Leave and Truss voted Remain, yet in a choice between the three the ERG will go for Truss?
She's the right choice for them. 👍
This isn't 2016. Yes Truss voted Remain but since then she seems to have authentically (not just saying it now as a flag of convenience like Hunt did) accepted the result and has worked hard for years to maximise the returns for the UK of an independent trade policy. Which means staying out of the EU's CU etc and not returning to it as many want. Her NI Protocol Bill solves the NI issue very nicely too, from a UK perspective, even if the EU aren't happy and fits in with having NI gain the advantages of UK trade policy too.
Unless Truss does an about face on trade etc which she has ran on for many years now, she hold a position that is very sound for the ERG.
Sunak OTOH has been repeatedly said in the papers to be much more of a so-called "realist" who wants a "compromise". That is not the ERG position and quite rightly because as Theresa May showed when the UK is in a position of seeking a "compromise" that means the UK making all the compromises. A genuine compromise only occurs when, like with Boris and Frost (and Truss seems willing to do the same) the UK stands firmly behind its own position and only then genuine are negotiations are able to happen.
Boris and Frost standing firmly behind the UK’s position and genuinely negotiating… is that the process that produced the broken and unworkable NI Protocol?
LIVIVO Portable Powerful Evaporative Air Cooler AC With Remote Control - Anti Dust Filter - 3 Speed Settings - 120° Oscillating Swing Function (White) https://amzn.eu/d/ikPPFMy
LIVIVO Portable Powerful Evaporative Air Cooler AC With Remote Control - Anti Dust Filter - 3 Speed Settings - 120° Oscillating Swing Function (White) https://amzn.eu/d/ikPPFMy
Are these any good for the hot weather?
It should help a bit since this period of hot weather will have low humidity, but it's worth being a bit wary as it will dump moisture into your home, which might cause issues when the weather cools down. Also, if your not careful with stopping sunlight heating your home up then it could make things worse, by adding humidity to the high temperatures.
It could help to understand how it works, which is very similarly to sweating. It takes energy to evaporate water, and so that will cool the temperature of your skin, or the air passing through the cooler. However, the more you do this, and the more humidity is in the air, the harder it becomes to evaporate more water. This is why high humidity and high temperature combined is lethal. It also means the energy from the heat is still in your home, and will be released again when the water vapour condenses.
A standard air conditioner works like a fridge, and actually removes the heat energy from your home.
This difference means you can use an evaporative cooler effectively only in certain conditions, and really only for a limited time period, while air conditioning can be used continuously, as long as you have a supply of electricity.
If the ERG are only 60 strong and several were already supporting Truss and say 23-24 of them (vast majority?) were Braverman then how many will listen and switch from both her and Badenoch?
I think Badenoch voters will stay fairly loyal, not entirely, so let's say she picks up 3-4 Braverman and sheds 10 ERG to Truss then we have something like 97 votes for Truss.
The question then is were the Tugendhat votes go (probably a mix of Sunak and Mordaunt) and Kemi's votes probably mainly go to Truss.
Basically, I think Truss overtakes Mordaunt once Kemi is eliminated whilst Sunak almost certainly makes it to 115 votes and should make it to 120+.
So it's probably Sunak v. Truss. Penny is in trouble.
Edit: this assumes majority of ERG (e.g. c. 35 votes) are currently down under Badenoch and Braverman and not Truss and will all obey the switch. It also assumes that the count of 60 ERG is correct. Further, that virtually none to to Mordaunt.
If any of that is wrong, then it could still be very close between Mordaunt and Truss on MP votes.
Quote from the Telegraph:
"In a letter seen by The Telegraph, Mr Francois – who has already declared for Ms Truss – said that, at a meeting of the ERG on Wednesday, “we did overwhelmingly agree that there were two candidates who we felt stood out among all the others, namely Suella Braverman and Liz Truss”.
He added: “While nearly all members of the group were backing either one or the other, we also agreed collectively that, if only one got through to the next round, we would then row in behind that candidate, whichever one it might be.”"
ie Nearly all members of ERG are already supporting Truss or Braverman.
It's all going to hinge on how the Badenoch vote splits - and that is hard to tell. Truss will probably get more of it than Mordaunt - but will she get enough more?
Sunak and Mordaunt voted Leave and Truss voted Remain, yet in a choice between the three the ERG will go for Truss?
She's the right choice for them. 👍
This isn't 2016. Yes Truss voted Remain but since then she seems to have authentically (not just saying it now as a flag of convenience like Hunt did) accepted the result and has worked hard for years to maximise the returns for the UK of an independent trade policy. Which means staying out of the EU's CU etc and not returning to it as many want. Her NI Protocol Bill solves the NI issue very nicely too, from a UK perspective, even if the EU aren't happy and fits in with having NI gain the advantages of UK trade policy too.
Unless Truss does an about face on trade etc which she has ran on for many years now, she hold a position that is very sound for the ERG.
Sunak OTOH has been repeatedly said in the papers to be much more of a so-called "realist" who wants a "compromise". That is not the ERG position and quite rightly because as Theresa May showed when the UK is in a position of seeking a "compromise" that means the UK making all the compromises. A genuine compromise only occurs when, like with Boris and Frost (and Truss seems willing to do the same) the UK stands firmly behind its own position and only then genuine are negotiations are able to happen.
Boris and Frost standing firmly behind the UK’s position and genuinely negotiating… is that the process that produced the broken and unworkable NI Protocol?
Aye, we've discussed this many times. That process got a far better and eminently easier to fix solution for NI than the backstop. Infinitely superior in every way. 👍
Far, far easier to dump or change the NI Protocol post-Brexit than it would ever be to dump or change the backstop. Agreeing the Protocol and going back to change it afterwards put solving the NI issue were it belonged - at the end of the process rather than the start of it.
Comments
Are these any good for the hot weather?
It could help to understand how it works, which is very similarly to sweating. It takes energy to evaporate water, and so that will cool the temperature of your skin, or the air passing through the cooler. However, the more you do this, and the more humidity is in the air, the harder it becomes to evaporate more water. This is why high humidity and high temperature combined is lethal. It also means the energy from the heat is still in your home, and will be released again when the water vapour condenses.
A standard air conditioner works like a fridge, and actually removes the heat energy from your home.
This difference means you can use an evaporative cooler effectively only in certain conditions, and really only for a limited time period, while air conditioning can be used continuously, as long as you have a supply of electricity.
Far, far easier to dump or change the NI Protocol post-Brexit than it would ever be to dump or change the backstop. Agreeing the Protocol and going back to change it afterwards put solving the NI issue were it belonged - at the end of the process rather than the start of it.
Great work there by Boris and Frost.