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How the betting markets reacted to the 1st round result – politicalbetting.com

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  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,407

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    I suppose this touches on a more general point that I have long believed.

    'Freedoms' such as freedom of speech and 'rights' should apply to people not organisations. It is one of the great failings of corporatism - more so in the US than in the UK but still bad here - that we allow companies and corporations to claim the same rights as apply to individuals under the law.

    I don't believe this has to be the case, or do I believe it should be the case. Freedoms and rights should apply to individuals, not to corporate entities.
    Corporate rights to that effect for some reason seems to me to be both old timey, robber baron kind of impunity (it is never the individual rights around accountability they they get to apply, funny that), and also more science fiction dystopian if you take the idea of corporate personhood to its ultimate conclusion.
    And a robber button is..?
    Lucky lucky cluuuck cluuck
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647
    edited July 2022

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in the 16 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
  • Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    Not in of itself a bad thing.

    We are going to have two essential non-entities in PM and LOTO. Next election will be fascinating and might actually be about policies and ideas.
  • Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485

    What if Penny becomes PM and we realise she is a vacuous non-entity?

    We're still probably a bit better off then we were with Johnson in charge.
    It was America's choice too.

    Of course, there is also a scenario where she is very, very good at the job of PM - and we are assembled here in 2037 to discuss the election of her successor.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    The take from that is Mordaunt is going to win. And win big. Whoever her opponent.

    This may yet collapse into a coronation, as the MPs realise the contest is over.
    This is the one I think for Sky from yougov, other polls of members with very different results are available this week. But of course, the only right poll is the one you like 😁

    Interesting how sky treated it as the “only” poll done, not related it to it’s all over the road cousins, I thought our media was beyond that approach these days.

    Got to be said though, Penny’s no longer interesting outsider or under dog, she’s a player in this now, one of the big three in with a chance, it will feel a bit of a failure and disappointment not to make top 2 from here, would it not?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613
    Rotherham tells Newsnight that it wants to hear about cost of living and answers and they want it now and none of the candidates is doing that.*

    *Of course we know that because they are pitching to the actual selectorate at moment
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243

    What if Penny becomes PM and we realise she is a vacuous non-entity?

    Con will go into opposition in 2024 and Kemi will ascend...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,278

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    I don't see it. Look at Mordaunt's lead against Hunt compared to her lead against Badenoch. That's not what you'd see if race was a strong factor.

    If there's any bias at all it would seem to be in favour of the female candidates, but that may simply be because they are better (with the exception of Braverman).
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in the 16 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Who would get your vote?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,651
    FF43 said:

    EPG said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    We can always choose Kemi Badenoch as PM as she will ban Ben and Jerrys ice-cream on grounds of wokeness. Focusing on the priorities, clearly.
    She didn't really say that, did she? Goodness me.
    Not quite. Banning Ben and Jerrys would at least mean Badenoch committing to some coherent outcome. Instead of which we get a stream of verbiage and soundbites:

    I'm in no doubts about the scale of the challenge any new prime minister will have to deal with. The underlying economic problems we face have been exacerbated by Covid and by war. But what makes the situation worse is that the answers to our problems, conservative answers, haven't been articulated or delivered in a way appropriate to the modern age. We have been in the grip of an underlying economic, social, cultural and intellectual malaise. The right has lost its confidence and courage and ability to defend the free market as the fairest way of helping people prosper. It has been undermined by a willingness to embrace protectionism for special interests. It's been undermined by retreating in the face of the Ben and Jerry's tendency, those who say a business's main priority is social justice, not productivity and profits, and it's been undermined by the actions of crony capitalists, who collude with big bureaucracy to rig the system in favour of incumbents against entrepreneurs. The truth that limited government – doing less for better – is the best way to restore faith in government has been forgotten, as we've piled into pressure groups and caved in to every campaigner with a moving message. And that has made the government agenda into a shopping list of disconnected, unworkable and unsustainable policies.

    This after saying she will tell the truth and will make touch choices! Badenoch offers only a void.

    A massively unimpressive candidate.
    There are a lot of people like Badenoch above whom I am huge fans of, but who had the common sense to stop after student politics and stick to making money or in a few cases writing for entertainment. I have to admit, part of me would be thrilled to see one in high office, if it's not just words.
    So you might choose a leader because their ideas excite you; they have a programme you want to see implemented; they have a track record of getting things done; or because they are a safe pair of hands and good in a crisis. Badenoch is a void. She doesn't offer anything.
    I think to be fair to Badenoch, she is offering the exciting ideas. Broadcasters like Jordan Peterson are hugely popular, more broadly popular than people who talk mostly about economics or Brexit for instance, and she speaks to that group more clearly than any other candidate. Observe also how eager people are to engage with ideas about wokiness or religion even on PB. My critique of Badenoch would be that I see not a lot of evidence that it's anything more than the veneer, and I fear that below it may well be the void.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,243

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    What are they making of her, out of interest?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,292

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in the 16 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Please purge yourself of this madness.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,026
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    I disagree. It is not free speech. It is a nuisance.

    Breaching the Peace is criminal behaviour (yes, we can argue about technicalities).

    Steve Bray does not need an amplified public address system interfering with people trying to do their normal jobs in adjacent office buildings. Him being silent holding a sign is a protest, without interfering with other people.

    Take away the nuisance, and he can still protest.
    A fair point. Some balance to be struck in that you can speak and protest, but does that mean you have to be able to do so in the specific manner you wish?

    I err on the side of caution in these matters as I know a politician's answer is a vaguely worded new law which can and eventually will be abused, but there are some areas of nuance.
    I rather stopped erring on the side of caution when Extinction Rebellion started setting up effective checkpoints for ambulances, started blocking vulnerable people getting to hospital, and made it very clear that in their opinion some vulnerable people dying because of their protests was acceptable to them.

    But then I have a very direct interest in that I have had the experience of being rushed to hospital in a civilian car because an ambulance would take too long, and stopping breathing within minutes of arriving.

    People in those circumstances blocked even briefly by the selfish c*nts of ER will die while they are being delayed.

    So imo ER are about as far beneath contempt as it is possible to get.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647
    edited July 2022

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    The take from that is Mordaunt is going to win. And win big. Whoever her opponent.

    This may yet collapse into a coronation, as the MPs realise the contest is over.
    Yes indeed, Sunak drops out and gets to be Chancellor again?
    I think Sunak returning as CoE would cause a number of problems not least that it would be a red rag to the Forever Boris-ers and it might not be best to antagonise them as your first action.

    If Rishi doesn’t win this contest I suspect he will step down at the next election and find a cushy job somewhere.

  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She's the Catherine Deneuve of British politics.

    image
    Far. Too. Much. Makeup.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    The take from that is Mordaunt is going to win. And win big. Whoever her opponent.

    This may yet collapse into a coronation, as the MPs realise the contest is over.
    This is the one I think for Sky from yougov, other polls of members with very different results are available this week. But of course, the only right poll is the one you like 😁

    Interesting how sky treated it as the “only” poll done, not related it to it’s all over the road cousins, I thought our media was beyond that approach these days.

    Got to be said though, Penny’s no longer interesting outsider or under dog, she’s a player in this now, one of the big three in with a chance, it will feel a bit of a failure and disappointment not to make top 2 from here, would it not?
    Feel free to link to those other polls
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    She's utterly unknown to the vast majority of voters. The previous replacements without an election weren't.
    Brown, Major, May, Johnson.
    Big gamble.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647
    Cookie said:

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She's the Catherine Deneuve of British politics.

    image
    Far. Too. Much. Makeup.
    You know that's Deneuve not Mordaunt, right?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,184

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded

    40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)

    That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)

    You wonder if schools will be able to open in those temperatures. The appalling build quality - cramped, badly ventilated, too much glass and concrete - that was such a curse during Covid is not less of an issue in high temperatures.
    One of the weather models has a forecast for 31C in south central England…. At 7am on Monday morning

    WTF

    I enjoy weather geekery and record-chasing but those night time/morning temperatures would certainly kill people. Let’s hope they are wrong
    Yes.

    From my POV the biggest problem with this heatwave is it’s sheer longevity. I was up north at the weekend, walking, and it was perfect on the hills, 23c and clear. I got back down here and it
    has been 30c+ frequently and has only briefly dropped below 20c in the middle of the bloody nights. I have been trying to work and sleep in high temperatures with no relief, even in the evenings. And it’s going to get hotter.

    Grim.

    It’s hot where I am too
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    GIN1138 said:

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    What are they making of her, out of interest?
    They haven't heard of her. So not much.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,184

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.

    So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt

    Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?

    This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.

    I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
    Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS
    of the last 6 remaining

    Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?
    Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and
    Braverman votes transfer to Truss
    What’s the chances of a grand Stop Truss coronation after tomorrows vote? Tommy Tug falls behind PM in exchange for foreign sec. Rishi realises he isn’t going to win and just wants his
    old job back. Kemi bought off with Home Sec,
    which might be Gove’s plan for her all along. Or are we sure this is really going to Members…?
    Unless it is Sunak v Mordaunt, in which case Sunak may drop out in return for a Cabinet post given members polls show Mordaunt trouncing him, the ERG will ensure it goes to the members as their candidate would also beat Sunak and has more of a chance v Mordaunt then Rishi does


    Keeping it away from the batshit membership and getting rid of the clown a month early; what’s not to like?
    They have all signed a “won’t drop out of in final 2” clause at the 22 havn’t they?
    How sweet that you still trust the Tories 😂
    Oh I see. “They won’t do that, because I have in my hand a piece of paper…”
    Yep! 😁
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613
    GIN1138 said:

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    What are they making of her, out of interest?
    Hard to tell - BBC flicked through the comments about PM in about a nanosec - the only obvious comment was that she was too focused on trans issues. Someone else said she seemed straight off Loose Women.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Good try but total nonsense. Badenoch would beat all of the white men and most of the white women in the membership vote.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,498

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope.

    image

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-clear-favourite-next-conservative-l
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 8,677
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    So boycott them (whoever it was, I didn't view a big image). If the silent majority are big enough then they'll pick up that such campaigns hurt sales and ditch them. It really is the only way to change behaviour if you find it troubling.

    (For me, this would neither make me more or less likely to buy. It's an irrelevance. It's just advertising afterall, ACMEcorp might be horribly sexist but running ads like this)
    Are you old enough to remember the looong stream of female underwear ads on the London Underground? It was like being trapped in the lingerie part of one of those mail order catalogues. The current ad is at least a change.
    Old enough, likely, but not a frequent London visitor. But women have had to put up with all kinds of shit in advertising over the years. I've no particular problem with this ad, but even if I did, well it's nothing compared to what has gone before.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 5,953

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    That’s where life is unfair for the opposition though. If she wins, by the Autumn more people will know about her than about Starmer.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,695
    dixiedean said:

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    She's utterly unknown to the vast majority of voters. The previous replacements without an election weren't.
    Brown, Major, May, Johnson.
    Big gamble.
    Well they have heard of Truss and dislike her and the Tory membership have heard of Sunak and seem to dislike him.

    Major wasn't that well known in 1990 had been in top Cabinet jobs only a short while, in 1963 the clear favourite was Butler not Home who got the job
  • Mail are going hard in on Truss.

    And attacking Penny for issues with trans, God help us
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,026
    edited July 2022

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded

    40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)

    That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)

    You wonder if schools will be able to open in those temperatures. The appalling build quality - cramped, badly ventilated, too much glass and concrete - that was such a curse during Covid is not less of an issue in high temperatures.
    One of the weather models has a forecast for 31C in south central England…. At 7am on Monday morning

    WTF

    I enjoy weather geekery and record-chasing but those night time/morning temperatures would certainly kill people. Let’s hope they are wrong
    Yes.

    From my POV the biggest problem with this heatwave is it’s sheer longevity. I was up north at the weekend, walking, and it was perfect on the hills, 23c and clear. I got back down here and it
    has been 30c+ frequently and has only briefly dropped below 20c in the middle of the bloody nights. I have been trying to work and sleep in high temperatures with no relief, even in the evenings. And it’s going to get hotter.

    Grim.

    It’s hot where I am too
    Here yesterday was uncomfortable - 28C, and today was OK because of a cool night last night.

    But I have ordered a portable (ish) Aircon / Heatpump to give me 3-4 hours to get the temperature right up or down starting at 7am in the morning when the East facing solar gets the morning sun.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mordaunt could turn out to be a vacuous non-entity. She could be a lot worse than that.
    She could be great.
    We simply don't know.
    Has she ever done a long interview with a serious interviewer?
    It's a huge gamble.

    I think we do know. Mordaunt has been a minister for 8 years in several departments. She achieved essentially nothing in any of them and was responsible for a number of medium sized blow-ups. Not a great track record, but she was also slightly unlucky - unfair that she should be sacked as Defence Sec after just 3 months when her predecessor was Gavin WIlliamson who managed to last two years.

    But she is personable. If I were a Conservative Party member looking for a campaigner, I could do worse than Penny Mordaunt. And would do worse if I chose almost any of the alternatives.
    Really? How do you measure 'achieved nothing'? Personally I think if a minister can run their department in a quite, organised way without creating headlines, good or bad, then they have done a pretty bloody good job.

    I don't want Mordaunt to win but I do want ministers to quietly get on with their job and not be making headlines or 'achieving' stuff beyond quiet competence.
    I am not talking about "quiet competence". Maybe "quiet incompetence". She's had a few gaffes along the way, but nothing spectacular.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope. With yougov too. Datasets here:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/6shnrhfen6/ConservativePartyMembers_LeadershipContenders_220713_w.pdf

  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,773
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    So boycott them (whoever it was, I didn't view a big image). If the silent majority are big enough then they'll pick up that such campaigns hurt sales and ditch them. It really is the only way to change behaviour if you find it troubling.

    (For me, this would neither make me more or less likely to buy. It's an irrelevance. It's just advertising afterall, ACMEcorp might be horribly sexist but running ads like this)
    Are you old enough to remember the looong stream of female underwear ads on the London Underground? It was like being trapped in the lingerie part of one of those mail order catalogues. The current ad is at least a change.
    Yes it was a nightmare having to run up the down escalator so you could get a longer look.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613
    Express swings behind Mordaunt.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    The take from that is Mordaunt is going to win. And win big. Whoever her opponent.

    This may yet collapse into a coronation, as the MPs realise the contest is over.
    Yes indeed, Sunak drops out and gets to be Chancellor again?
    Hope so.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,485
    edited July 2022

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope.

    image

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-clear-favourite-next-conservative-l
    Liz and Rishi now yesterday's Cabinet players.....

    And as such, their offers of patronage are worthless.
  • Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Well a lot of Labour members are probably racist too, it doesn't mean most or indeed all are.

    They are choosing Penny because she's the best candidate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613
    Mail panics...


  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448
    dixiedean said:

    I think I'll be betting on Starmer as next PM when the result is declared.
    Not because he's any good at all, mind.

    A danger of Tories coming out of this looking a bit split as a party, yet still no closer to plans and policy direction for the financial crisis, or able to explain what they stand for post Boris?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,026

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    My thesis is that there is so little actual information about Tory members out there, even down to how many there are, that all the talking heads are wibbling away without the foggiest notion about any if it.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Good try but total nonsense. Badenoch would beat all of the white men and most of the white women in the membership vote.
    Well maybe.

    But not according to that poll. She doesn't beat either of the white women and she barely (within MoE) beats Tugendhat.

    According to that poll.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    edited July 2022

    Mail panics...


    Meltdown time. Still, they do unfortunately have some sway…
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,695
    edited July 2022

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    I hope not and am not sure that is entirely true, otherwise even Hunt would have led Sunak and Badenoch but may be true for a minority.

    Often forgotten in 2012 Romney got 59% of the white vote v Obama, the highest share of the white vote for any GOP candidate since 1988 and more even than the 57% of the white vote Trump got v Hillary in 2016. It was only huge turnout by black voters that re elected Obama. Even McCain-Palin got 55% of the white vote in 2008 too. Most white voters in the US never voted to make Obama President
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,754
    dixiedean said:

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    She's utterly unknown to the vast majority of voters. The previous replacements without an election weren't.
    Brown, Major, May, Johnson.
    Big gamble.
    Major is the closest precedent - he had had a couple of big jobs in Cabinet when he replaced Thatcher and so was more of a front rank politician than Mordaunt is but was a fairly unknown quality compared to both Heseltine and Hurd. That choice worked out pretty well for the Tories, at least in 1992. I think Mordaunt is a huge gamble for the Tories, though, and I think for a whole host of reasons it won't work out for them. I think they are fucked whoever they go with, but in my opinion Sunak is the least risky option.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734

    Cookie said:

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She's the Catherine Deneuve of British politics.

    image
    Far. Too. Much. Makeup.
    You know that's Deneuve not Mordaunt, right?
    I actually realised after I posted! But that was actually my reaction last time I saw Mordaunt as well as my reaction to that picture, so I just let it be.
    In fact, I think it makes my point: I didn't see the woman, just the amount of gloop she had in her face.
    I find make-up vaguely icky, and too much make-up very icky. I get a physical feeling of slight revulsion, similar to what you might feel seeing a child with snot dribbling down to its top lip.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope. With yougov too. Datasets here:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/6shnrhfen6/ConservativePartyMembers_LeadershipContenders_220713_w.pdf

    Fair enough - I stand corrected. Thanks
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448

    Mail panics...


    Quite right too! LOL. The right beloved by the mail have about 24hrs to sort themselves out or more might fail to give the members a candidate. That would be Dee lish usssss 🤤
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope.

    image

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-clear-favourite-next-conservative-l
    Liz and Rishi now yesterday's Cabinet players.....

    And as such, their offers of patronage are worthless.
    There must be a german word for clinging onto your Cabinet post long after you should have resigned in protest at the lies and chaos and then finding to your surprise that no one buys your bullshit about the benefit of the doubt.

  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,969

    dixiedean said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    Or indeed private companies advertising in general.
    It would be interesting to follow the money and see if indeed it is a private company (I can't see a commercial benefit?) or if you and I are paying for it in some form.
    It appears to be paid for by EE, a private company: see https://www.campaignasia.com/video/ee-tackles-online-sexist-abuse-in-campaign-telling-men-its-their-problem/480101 for details.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,278
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    I disagree. It is not free speech. It is a nuisance.

    Breaching the Peace is criminal behaviour (yes, we can argue about technicalities).

    Steve Bray does not need an amplified public address system interfering with people trying to do their normal jobs in adjacent office buildings. Him being silent holding a sign is a protest, without interfering with other people.

    Take away the nuisance, and he can still protest.
    A fair point. Some balance to be struck in that you can speak and protest, but does that mean you have to be able to do so in the specific manner you wish?

    I err on the side of caution in these matters as I know a politician's answer is a vaguely worded new law which can and eventually will be abused, but there are some areas of nuance.
    Take for example noise. We have some rules around noise being limited after 7pm, and further limited after 11pm. I think most people would agree that if you took a loudhailer to someone's house and tried to keep them awake all night with a loud protest that your right to free speech is not sufficient justification for what would amount to harassment.

    But Steve Bray hasn't taken things that far, so I'm a bit uncomfortable with the nuisance argument being used to curtail his protest. The dividing line should be whether it constitutes harassment, not mere annoyance in my view.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647

    Mail are going hard in on Truss.

    And attacking Penny for issues with trans, God help us


    It's the Mail versus the Express! Gotta laugh.

    Is the Sun still rooting for Badenoch?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,005
    So if Rishi Rich backers don't want The Truss to win then they should vote tactically for Pretty Penny so she can beat The Truss with the membership.

    Otherwise their man loses to The Truss.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613

    Mail panics...


    Quite right too! LOL. The right beloved by the mail have about 24hrs to sort themselves out or more might fail to give the members a candidate. That would be Dee lish usssss 🤤
    I guess the subliminal message is unite behind Leeds Liz now?
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 10,969

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    So your objection isn’t too free speech, it’s too capitalism?
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She's the Catherine Deneuve of British politics.

    image
    Far. Too. Much. Makeup.
    You know that's Deneuve not Mordaunt, right?
    I actually realised after I posted! But that was actually my reaction last time I saw Mordaunt as well as my reaction to that picture, so I just let it be.
    In fact, I think it makes my point: I didn't see the woman, just the amount of gloop she had in her face.
    I find make-up vaguely icky, and too much make-up very icky. I get a physical feeling of slight revulsion, similar to what you might feel seeing a child with snot dribbling down to its top lip.
    Willi done well. The likeness with Penny today was soooo similar!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    From tomorrow’s Torygraph, Truss is going to take aim at Mordaunt publicly tomorrow. It’s going to get nasty I suspect.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386
    edited July 2022
    This may be a bit out there, but...
    If you have a twin of the opposite sex don't you have a living example of what it would be to be trans?
    I mean. You literally shared a womb with it. And grew up with it. It's there every day.
  • Gutted I didn’t realise I should have been seething at Waterloo adverts tonight

    Pendolino Mordaunt has started like a train
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Tomorrow: another day, another vote.

    Goodnight! 👍
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647
    dixiedean said:

    This may be a bit out there, but...
    If you have a twin of the opposite sex don't you have a living example of what it would be to be trans?
    I mean. You literally shared a womb with it. And grew up with it. It's there every day.

    Non-identical twins are no closer related than any full siblings.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613

    Mail panics...


    Meltdown time. Still, they do unfortunately have some sway…
    Continuous Boris camp having a nightmare this evening.

    Slipping away from them.

    Mogg may even have to return to earning an honest penny from the stock exchange at this rate.

  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647

    From tomorrow’s Torygraph, Truss is going to take aim at Mordaunt publicly tomorrow. It’s going to get nasty I suspect.

    Bring it on!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Re: the current southern England heatwave, during last ones in Seattle, in stuffy apartment with no air conditioning AND southern exposure, only thing that made conditions quasi-bearable, was small cube-shaped swamp cooler; fill with cold water and plug it in.

    Will only cool down the VERY immediate area in front of it, but (if next to your bed for instance) just enough to make a significant difference.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492

    From tomorrow’s Torygraph, Truss is going to take aim at Mordaunt publicly tomorrow. It’s going to get nasty I suspect.

    Good. Hopefully Kemi Badenoch will come through the middle.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    So your objection isn’t too free speech, it’s too capitalism?
    My objection is too many 'o's ;-)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    edited July 2022
    Telsa just lost their director of AI....

    It’s been a great pleasure to help Tesla towards its goals over the last 5 years and a difficult decision to part ways. In that time, Autopilot graduated from lane keeping to city streets and I look forward to seeing the exceptionally strong Autopilot team continue that momentum.

    https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1547332300186066944?s=20&t=5QdgCydzNEF1OqOjXTc_Qw

    Can't be good for the share price.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,026

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    I disagree. It is not free speech. It is a nuisance.

    Breaching the Peace is criminal behaviour (yes, we can argue about technicalities).

    Steve Bray does not need an amplified public address system interfering with people trying to do their normal jobs in adjacent office buildings. Him being silent holding a sign is a protest, without interfering with other people.

    Take away the nuisance, and he can still protest.
    A fair point. Some balance to be struck in that you can speak and protest, but does that mean you have to be able to do so in the specific manner you wish?

    I err on the side of caution in these matters as I know a politician's answer is a vaguely worded new law which can and eventually will be abused, but there are some areas of nuance.
    Take for example noise. We have some rules around noise being limited after 7pm, and further limited after 11pm. I think most people would agree that if you took a loudhailer to someone's house and tried to keep them awake all night with a loud protest that your right to free speech is not sufficient justification for what would amount to harassment.

    But Steve Bray hasn't taken things that far, so I'm a bit uncomfortable with the nuisance argument being used to curtail his protest. The dividing line should be whether it constitutes harassment, not mere annoyance in my view.
    I'd say that 2000 or 3000 people trying to work have similar expectations of being able to get on with their lives undisturbed.

    There is no reason why Steve Bray needs the kind of PR system that created such chaos in all those media interviews. Or any reason why stopping him creating that nuisance is an unacceptable restriction.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734
    Wife (political bellweather) mentioned Badenoch. Said she hadn't liked what she'd heard but couldn't remember what it was she didn't like. She dug into her a bit and views were more mixed - but concerns about the idea of a party leader for whom religion is quite such a part of her hinterland.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613
    It's mainly Mordaunt surge on the front pages.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994

    From tomorrow’s Torygraph, Truss is going to take aim at Mordaunt publicly tomorrow. It’s going to get nasty I suspect.

    Sunak needs it to hit home. He might well lose to Truss too, but his position is more recoverable there.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope.

    image

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-clear-favourite-next-conservative-l
    Liz and Rishi now yesterday's Cabinet players.....

    And as such, their offers of patronage are worthless.
    I appreciate your excitement Mark, with how it’s going for your gal you backed long time back.

    Pulling you back to earth for a moment, what would be Penny’s platform and pitch to the country, if she leads into a general election? Rooted in Conservative values?
    Personality driven, like Boris success? Or leaning on the success of her policies and performance from now to General Election?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    Charles Walker MP was saying earlier that the 1922 Committee might set another bar for the next round, somewhere between 40 and 50 votes. Does anyone know whether this has been put in place?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mordaunt could turn out to be a vacuous non-entity. She could be a lot worse than that.
    She could be great.
    We simply don't know.
    Has she ever done a long interview with a serious interviewer?
    It's a huge gamble.

    I think we do know. Mordaunt has been a minister for 8 years in several departments. She achieved essentially nothing in any of them and was responsible for a number of medium sized blow-ups. Not a great track record, but she was also slightly unlucky - unfair that she should be sacked as Defence Sec after just 3 months when her predecessor was Gavin WIlliamson who managed to last two years.

    But she is personable. If I were a Conservative Party member looking for a campaigner, I could do worse than Penny Mordaunt. And would do worse if I chose almost any of the alternatives.
    Really? How do you measure 'achieved nothing'? Personally I think if a minister can run their department in a quite, organised way without creating headlines, good or bad, then they have done a pretty bloody good job.

    I don't want Mordaunt to win but I do want ministers to quietly get on with their job and not be making headlines or 'achieving' stuff beyond quiet competence.
    I am not talking about "quiet competence". Maybe "quiet incompetence". She's had a few gaffes along the way, but nothing spectacular.
    How do you measure 'achieved nothing'? You ask.

    So if I take Liz Truss, who I definitely don't want to be PM, she oversaw - 60? - rollover free trade agreements with non-EU countries. They may not in aggregate be quite as good as the EU agreements they replaced, but they didn't happen by default. Some pretty good project management went into them.

    Penny Mordaunt in her year as Trade Minister has achieved one "trade agreement" actually an MoU with the State of Indiana, hardly a powerhouse in the federation, which contained not a single commitment, not even for an educational exchange or a trade visit, and which senior Indiana officials didn't even know about when asked.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,813
    we have now given dall-e 2 access to 100,000 users. next goal: 1 million.

    https://twitter.com/sama/status/1547212678644371457?s=20&t=5QdgCydzNEF1OqOjXTc_Qw
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She's the Catherine Deneuve of British politics.

    image
    Far. Too. Much. Makeup.
    You know that's Deneuve not Mordaunt, right?
    I actually realised after I posted! But that was actually my reaction last time I saw Mordaunt as well as my reaction to that picture, so I just let it be.
    In fact, I think it makes my point: I didn't see the woman, just the amount of gloop she had in her face.
    I find make-up vaguely icky, and too much make-up very icky. I get a physical feeling of slight revulsion, similar to what you might feel
    seeing a child with snot dribbling down to its top lip.
    That predilection must have seriously limited your choice of women over the years.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    Iain Dale on Newsnight: good result for Mordaunt, Badenoch. Mediocre result: Sunak, Truss. Bad result: Hunt.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,613

    Telsa just lost their director of AI....

    It’s been a great pleasure to help Tesla towards its goals over the last 5 years and a difficult decision to part ways. In that time, Autopilot graduated from lane keeping to city streets and I look forward to seeing the exceptionally strong Autopilot team continue that momentum.

    https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1547332300186066944?s=20&t=5QdgCydzNEF1OqOjXTc_Qw

    Can't be good for the share price.

    Move to Apple or Twitter?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,328
    Watching Pesto. Team Sunak's cheerleader tonight is the airheaded Lucy Frazer. Come on Rishi shape up, she is useless.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448

    It's mainly Mordaunt surge on the front pages.

    And as Sunil puts it: she’s looking okay 🙂
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,386

    dixiedean said:

    This may be a bit out there, but...
    If you have a twin of the opposite sex don't you have a living example of what it would be to be trans?
    I mean. You literally shared a womb with it. And grew up with it. It's there every day.

    Non-identical twins are no closer related than any full siblings.
    With respect that isn't the point at all.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734
    Andy_JS said:

    Charles Walker MP was saying earlier that the 1922 Committee might set another bar for the next round, somewhere between 40 and 50 votes. Does anyone know whether this has been put in place?

    'Might? Shouldn't they have sorted all this out before they started?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Mail panics...


    Quite right too! LOL. The right beloved by the mail have about 24hrs to sort themselves out or more might fail to give the members a candidate. That would be Dee lish usssss 🤤
    Yes, it would be quite something to see them frozen out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,994
    Andy_JS said:

    Charles Walker MP was saying earlier that the 1922 Committee might set another bar for the next round, somewhere between 40 and 50 votes. Does anyone know whether this has been put in place?

    Bit late for them to do that I'd have thought - I thought they'd gone for a 'lowest vote goes out, but we'll have multiple votes a day if needed' in order to trim the field
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    Cookie said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Charles Walker MP was saying earlier that the 1922 Committee might set another bar for the next round, somewhere between 40 and 50 votes. Does anyone know whether this has been put in place?

    'Might? Shouldn't they have sorted all this out before they started?
    I agree, but they always seem to make it up on the hoof.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,448

    Mail panics...


    Quite right too! LOL. The right beloved by the mail have about 24hrs to sort themselves out or more might fail to give the members a candidate. That would be Dee lish usssss 🤤
    I guess the subliminal message is unite behind Leeds Liz now?
    subliminal?
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    This may be a bit out there, but...
    If you have a twin of the opposite sex don't you have a living example of what it would be to be trans?
    I mean. You literally shared a womb with it. And grew up with it. It's there every day.

    Non-identical twins are no closer related than any full siblings.
    With respect that isn't the point at all.
    I was simply pointing out that non-identical twins are quite different people, genetically. The way your non-identical twin sister/brother looks, thinks, and behaves is likely to be quite different to you.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 6,807
    Andy_JS said:

    Iain Dale on Newsnight: good result for Mordaunt, Badenoch. Mediocre result: Sunak, Truss. Bad result: Hunt.

    It sort of goes without saying that being knocked out is a bad result!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,038

    Watching Pesto. Team Sunak's cheerleader tonight is the airheaded Lucy Frazer. Come on Rishi shape up, she is useless.

    I was at University with her (albeit she was a few years older than me), and I ran the ball when she was President of the Union.

    She didn't seem like an airhead, and is a QC IIRC.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,647

    Mail panics...


    Quite right too! LOL. The right beloved by the mail have about 24hrs to sort themselves out or more might fail to give the members a candidate. That would be Dee lish usssss 🤤
    Yes, it would be quite something to see them frozen out.
    I am not sure I get the idea that unable and Mordaunt are on the left of the Conservative party. Am I missing something?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,734

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She's the Catherine Deneuve of British politics.

    image
    Far. Too. Much. Makeup.
    You know that's Deneuve not Mordaunt, right?
    I actually realised after I posted! But that was actually my reaction last time I saw Mordaunt as well as my reaction to that picture, so I just let it be.
    In fact, I think it makes my point: I didn't see the woman, just the amount of gloop she had in her face.
    I find make-up vaguely icky, and too much make-up very icky. I get a physical feeling of slight revulsion, similar to what you might feel
    seeing a child with snot dribbling down to its top lip.
    That predilection must have seriously limited your choice of women over the years.

    A little. It's not ideal. But most (which makes it sound like there's been a high turnover, which there definitely hasn't) girlfriends have gone without makeup most of the time.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,479

    Andy_JS said:

    Iain Dale on Newsnight: good result for Mordaunt, Badenoch. Mediocre result: Sunak, Truss. Bad result: Hunt.

    It sort of goes without saying that being knocked out is a bad result!
    I’m waiting to hear Dale’s insights on Grant Shapps’ chances.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    It's a major blow for Tugendhat that Hunt has decided to endorse Sunak.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492

    Andy_JS said:

    Iain Dale on Newsnight: good result for Mordaunt, Badenoch. Mediocre result: Sunak, Truss. Bad result: Hunt.

    It sort of goes without saying that being knocked out is a bad result!
    He said Hunt did even worse than he was expecting. Maybe he thought he'd get knocked out with 29 votes, not 18.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Telsa just lost their director of AI....

    It’s been a great pleasure to help Tesla towards its goals over the last 5 years and a difficult decision to part ways. In that time, Autopilot graduated from lane keeping to city streets and I look forward to seeing the exceptionally strong Autopilot team continue that momentum.

    https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1547332300186066944?s=20&t=5QdgCydzNEF1OqOjXTc_Qw

    Can't be good for the share price.

    Also strong possibility of Musk losing versus Twitter in Delaware Chancery Court.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,492
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Charles Walker MP was saying earlier that the 1922 Committee might set another bar for the next round, somewhere between 40 and 50 votes. Does anyone know whether this has been put in place?

    Bit late for them to do that I'd have thought - I thought they'd gone for a 'lowest vote goes out, but we'll have multiple votes a day if needed' in order to trim the field
    Maybe they'll have a vote on Friday morning, which isn't the plan atm.
This discussion has been closed.