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How the betting markets reacted to the 1st round result – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,345

    Carnyx said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Just ban all advertising. I hate advertising full stop. It's all just lies, and we are exposed to it thousands of times a day until we are desensitised to it. Get rid of it all, then we can all be happy, left, right and everyone in between.
    Promote free speech by... banning advertising. Mmmm...
    And as for Waterloo, each train will now need to be inspected before boarding by those who object to (alleged) wokism:

    https://www.southwesternrailway.com/other/news-and-media/news/2020/june/swr-launches-new-trainbow-to-mark-pride-month
    From the top-deck of a bus, saw a brand new Class 701 in SWR colours at Ilford Depot today.
    No wonder the SWR service is so bad if one of their trains is over in Ilford!
    It was being serviced - presumably! I've also seen some new orange-painted West Midlands Trains units too over the last couple of years.
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    There is a significant difference between free speech and amplified harassment.

    He goes beyond reasonable protest into something that does fall foul of the law. Hence the recent confiscation of his equipment. He replaced it, of course. But it will get taken away.

    This will go on for a while and he will end up being arrested.

    There has been a regular protest outside the animal testing labs in Oxford for many years.

    They turn up. They hold up their placards. They shout their slogans. They pack up and go home only to return same time the following week.

    They make their point. They are relentless and committed. And always stay within the law.

    It was funny one day when they started making mistakes with the chant and it ended up as 'Stop the Axford Onimal Labs'
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,441

    If Penny is a non-entity, she will gracefully take the Tories into opposition, the Tories go back to being sensible and we'll all benefit. It's a win-win for her to take over

    Pretty fair analysis there CHB. I certainly think we see a different style of government with Penny (assuming she wins) and that hopefully lends itself to a better standard of political discourse than we have had in recent times.
    Although Tories buoyed and excited right now, It’s going to be hard for whoever wins. Not to deny Leadership races are exciting and freewheelin when you can express ideas and policy with some abandon, but there can only be one winner. The winner here has to command the top team afterwards, the party, the policy agenda. If you are recently in opposition it has to be easier to build authority as LOTO, first over party and then with electorate - in opposition you could get away with a honest “havn’t decided that yet” approach. Not here. This is different. Whoever wins this race has to deal with bad blood from the assassination of their predecessor PM some MPs party members and many voters still angry about, deal with beaten leadership rivals, impose their own policy agenda, changes from their predecessor, get support for their own promised policies, some rivals and their supporters may have criticised - and all that in the first few days, because as a PrImeminister the events of the crisis situation the country, Europe and World is in will be relentless on a daily basis for the foreseeable. And the opposition aren’t just going to sit back and watch, they will attack relentlessly to create first impression of a struggling Primeminister, before a different impression can take hold.

    The next couple of years ARE CRUCIAL for the conservatives, as even if it takes them out of office, the performance of the leadership sets in next two years decides size of defeat, the millstone leaving office with a very bad record on economy and Brexit can make it hard to come back quickly.

    Although it’s fun watching Conservatives on this site enjoying themselves, there is still a lot of inherent danger in this for the Conservatives.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    I suppose this touches on a more general point that I have long believed.

    'Freedoms' such as freedom of speech and 'rights' should apply to people not organisations. It is one of the great failings of corporatism - more so in the US than in the UK but still bad here - that we allow companies and corporations to claim the same rights as apply to individuals under the law.

    I don't believe this has to be the case, or do I believe it should be the case. Freedoms and rights should apply to individuals, not to corporate entities.
    Corporate rights to that effect for some reason seems to me to be both old timey, robber baron kind of impunity (it is never the individual rights around accountability they they get to apply, funny that), and also more science fiction dystopian if you take the idea of corporate personhood to its ultimate conclusion.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,345

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She looks OK :)
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,966
    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mordaunt could turn out to be a vacuous non-entity. She could be a lot worse than that.
    She could be great.
    We simply don't know.
    Has she ever done a long interview with a serious interviewer?
    It's a huge gamble.

    I think we do know. Mordaunt has been a minister for 8 years in several departments. She achieved essentially nothing in any of them and was responsible for a number of medium sized blow-ups. Not a great track record, but she was also slightly unlucky - unfair that she should be sacked as Defence Sec after just 3 months when her predecessor was Gavin WIlliamson who managed to last two years.

    But she is personable. If I were a Conservative Party member looking for a campaigner, I could do worse than Penny Mordaunt. And would do worse if I chose almost any of the alternatives.
    Really? How do you measure 'achieved nothing'? Personally I think if a minister can run their department in a quite, organised way without creating headlines, good or bad, then they have done a pretty bloody good job.

    I don't want Mordaunt to win but I do want ministers to quietly get on with their job and not be making headlines or 'achieving' stuff beyond quiet competence.
  • Options
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

    Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

    In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.

    You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.
    Corbyn saw himself off by being an anti-Semitic fool, and the country realising it in 2019 (and against Boris!). Starmer 'saw him off' by bravely remaining in cabinet with him.

    That's not exactly 'seeing him off', is it?
    If Starmer hadn't served under Corbyn, he wouldn't have been able to win the leadership and then destroy the left from the inside.

    Anyone sane can see that was a good decision.
    Somewhere, Jeremy Hunt is nodding in agreement as he weeps with frustrated ambition...
    Hunt is sensible and not a moron - therefore he has no place in today's Tory party
    Starmer is sensible and not an anti-Semite - therefore his place was at Corbyn’s side.

    Double standards much?
    He threw Corbyn out of the party. And like I said without being in the cabinet he'd never have been able to do that, or do you think RLB would?
    Pedant's note, Corbyn has been unsuspended from the party, I believe, though Starmer will not let him back in the group.
    Starmer threw him out of the PLP for good. Party is out of his hands although he should change the rules this year.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    The take from that is Mordaunt is going to win. And win big. Whoever her opponent.

    This may yet collapse into a coronation, as the MPs realise the contest is over.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987
    I think I'll be betting on Starmer as next PM when the result is declared.
    Not because he's any good at all, mind.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    I disagree. It is not free speech. It is a nuisance.

    Breaching the Peace is criminal behaviour (yes, we can argue about technicalities).

    Steve Bray does not need an amplified public address system interfering with people trying to do their normal jobs in adjacent office buildings. Him being silent holding a sign is a protest, without interfering with other people.

    Take away the nuisance, and he can still protest.
    A fair point. Some balance to be struck in that you can speak and protest, but does that mean you have to be able to do so in the specific manner you wish?

    I err on the side of caution in these matters as I know a politician's answer is a vaguely worded new law which can and eventually will be abused, but there are some areas of nuance.
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    MattW said:

    EPG said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Let's do a deal: nobody can say anything in public anyone disagrees with.
    Do have anything to say that bears on the question in debate?

    Yes, prior to that comment; I don't feel the need to drone on about it, but it was something to the effect of, "we urgently need to defend sexist hate from the wokies".
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    I suppose this touches on a more general point that I have long believed.

    'Freedoms' such as freedom of speech and 'rights' should apply to people not organisations. It is one of the great failings of corporatism - more so in the US than in the UK but still bad here - that we allow companies and corporations to claim the same rights as apply to individuals under the law.

    I don't believe this has to be the case, or do I believe it should be the case. Freedoms and rights should apply to individuals, not to corporate entities.
    Corporate rights to that effect for some reason seems to me to be both old timey, robber baron kind of impunity (it is never the individual rights around accountability they they get to apply, funny that), and also more science fiction dystopian if you take the idea of corporate personhood to its ultimate conclusion.
    And a robber button is..?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,598
    kle4 said:

    ydoethur said:

    Jonathan said:

    CD13 said:

    I understand why Labour supporters are having some fun with the Tories' choices, but their last three selections didn't make hearts leap with joy.

    Starmer is passibly competent when presented with an open goal but struggles otherwise. Five out of ten. Jeremy Corbyn was a joke, designed to implode at the first opportunity. Zero out of ten, and that's being kind. Ed Milliband. Couldn't eat a sausage roll on his own, and they probably mixed up his Christian name. But forever engraved on my heart for stuffing my mouth with gold by massively inflating the payments for solar panels. Just when I received my retirement lump sum. Three out of ten for that alone.

    In fact, their last decent choice was Neil Kinnock.

    You , like a lot of people, underestimate Starmer. Against the odds he saw of Corbyn and his persistence over party gate was instrumental in seeing off Boris.
    Corbyn saw himself off by being an anti-Semitic fool, and the country realising it in 2019 (and against Boris!). Starmer 'saw him off' by bravely remaining in cabinet with him.

    That's not exactly 'seeing him off', is it?
    If Starmer hadn't served under Corbyn, he wouldn't have been able to win the leadership and then destroy the left from the inside.

    Anyone sane can see that was a good decision.
    Somewhere, Jeremy Hunt is nodding in agreement as he weeps with frustrated ambition...
    Hunt is sensible and not a moron - therefore he has no place in today's Tory party
    Starmer is sensible and not an anti-Semite - therefore his place was at Corbyn’s side.

    Double standards much?
    He threw Corbyn out of the party. And like I said without being in the cabinet he'd never have been able to do that, or do you think RLB would?
    Pedant's note, Corbyn has been unsuspended from the party, I believe, though Starmer will not let him back in the group.
    Have they been debranded from "Institutionally Racist" by the EHRC, yet?

    (Serious question. I have been keeping a modest eye out for statements, but have not seen anything.)
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013

    EPG said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Let's do a deal: nobody can say anything in public anyone disagrees with.
    Sigh, that's not the issue with Steve Bray. And you know it's not.

    Why does this always go reducto ad absurdium?
    It's the issue with this ad, for you.
  • Options

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    The take from that is Mordaunt is going to win. And win big. Whoever her opponent.

    This may yet collapse into a coronation, as the MPs realise the contest is over.
    Yes indeed, Sunak drops out and gets to be Chancellor again?
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,966

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    I suppose this touches on a more general point that I have long believed.

    'Freedoms' such as freedom of speech and 'rights' should apply to people not organisations. It is one of the great failings of corporatism - more so in the US than in the UK but still bad here - that we allow companies and corporations to claim the same rights as apply to individuals under the law.

    I don't believe this has to be the case, or do I believe it should be the case. Freedoms and rights should apply to individuals, not to corporate entities.
    Corporate rights to that effect for some reason seems to me to be both old timey, robber baron kind of impunity (it is never the individual rights around accountability they they get to apply, funny that), and also more science fiction dystopian if you take the idea of corporate personhood to its ultimate conclusion.
    And a robber button is..?
    Lucky lucky cluuuck cluuck
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,704
    edited July 2022

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in the 16 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
  • Options

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    Not in of itself a bad thing.

    We are going to have two essential non-entities in PM and LOTO. Next election will be fascinating and might actually be about policies and ideas.
  • Options

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    What if Penny becomes PM and we realise she is a vacuous non-entity?

    We're still probably a bit better off then we were with Johnson in charge.
    It was America's choice too.

    Of course, there is also a scenario where she is very, very good at the job of PM - and we are assembled here in 2037 to discuss the election of her successor.
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,441

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    The take from that is Mordaunt is going to win. And win big. Whoever her opponent.

    This may yet collapse into a coronation, as the MPs realise the contest is over.
    This is the one I think for Sky from yougov, other polls of members with very different results are available this week. But of course, the only right poll is the one you like 😁

    Interesting how sky treated it as the “only” poll done, not related it to it’s all over the road cousins, I thought our media was beyond that approach these days.

    Got to be said though, Penny’s no longer interesting outsider or under dog, she’s a player in this now, one of the big three in with a chance, it will feel a bit of a failure and disappointment not to make top 2 from here, would it not?
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    Rotherham tells Newsnight that it wants to hear about cost of living and answers and they want it now and none of the candidates is doing that.*

    *Of course we know that because they are pitching to the actual selectorate at moment
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,828

    What if Penny becomes PM and we realise she is a vacuous non-entity?

    Con will go into opposition in 2024 and Kemi will ascend...
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,311

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    I don't see it. Look at Mordaunt's lead against Hunt compared to her lead against Badenoch. That's not what you'd see if race was a strong factor.

    If there's any bias at all it would seem to be in favour of the female candidates, but that may simply be because they are better (with the exception of Braverman).
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in the 16 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Who would get your vote?
  • Options
    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    FF43 said:

    EPG said:

    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    We can always choose Kemi Badenoch as PM as she will ban Ben and Jerrys ice-cream on grounds of wokeness. Focusing on the priorities, clearly.
    She didn't really say that, did she? Goodness me.
    Not quite. Banning Ben and Jerrys would at least mean Badenoch committing to some coherent outcome. Instead of which we get a stream of verbiage and soundbites:

    I'm in no doubts about the scale of the challenge any new prime minister will have to deal with. The underlying economic problems we face have been exacerbated by Covid and by war. But what makes the situation worse is that the answers to our problems, conservative answers, haven't been articulated or delivered in a way appropriate to the modern age. We have been in the grip of an underlying economic, social, cultural and intellectual malaise. The right has lost its confidence and courage and ability to defend the free market as the fairest way of helping people prosper. It has been undermined by a willingness to embrace protectionism for special interests. It's been undermined by retreating in the face of the Ben and Jerry's tendency, those who say a business's main priority is social justice, not productivity and profits, and it's been undermined by the actions of crony capitalists, who collude with big bureaucracy to rig the system in favour of incumbents against entrepreneurs. The truth that limited government – doing less for better – is the best way to restore faith in government has been forgotten, as we've piled into pressure groups and caved in to every campaigner with a moving message. And that has made the government agenda into a shopping list of disconnected, unworkable and unsustainable policies.

    This after saying she will tell the truth and will make touch choices! Badenoch offers only a void.

    A massively unimpressive candidate.
    There are a lot of people like Badenoch above whom I am huge fans of, but who had the common sense to stop after student politics and stick to making money or in a few cases writing for entertainment. I have to admit, part of me would be thrilled to see one in high office, if it's not just words.
    So you might choose a leader because their ideas excite you; they have a programme you want to see implemented; they have a track record of getting things done; or because they are a safe pair of hands and good in a crisis. Badenoch is a void. She doesn't offer anything.
    I think to be fair to Badenoch, she is offering the exciting ideas. Broadcasters like Jordan Peterson are hugely popular, more broadly popular than people who talk mostly about economics or Brexit for instance, and she speaks to that group more clearly than any other candidate. Observe also how eager people are to engage with ideas about wokiness or religion even on PB. My critique of Badenoch would be that I see not a lot of evidence that it's anything more than the veneer, and I fear that below it may well be the void.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,828

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    What are they making of her, out of interest?
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,408

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in the 16 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Please purge yourself of this madness.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,598
    edited July 2022
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    I disagree. It is not free speech. It is a nuisance.

    Breaching the Peace is criminal behaviour (yes, we can argue about technicalities).

    Steve Bray does not need an amplified public address system interfering with people trying to do their normal jobs in adjacent office buildings. Him being silent holding a sign is a protest, without interfering with other people.

    Take away the nuisance, and he can still protest.
    A fair point. Some balance to be struck in that you can speak and protest, but does that mean you have to be able to do so in the specific manner you wish?

    I err on the side of caution in these matters as I know a politician's answer is a vaguely worded new law which can and eventually will be abused, but there are some areas of nuance.
    I rather stopped erring on the side of caution when Extinction Rebellion started setting up effective checkpoints for ambulances, started blocking vulnerable people getting to hospital, and made it very clear that in their opinion some vulnerable people dying because of their protests was acceptable to them.

    But then I have a very direct interest in that I have had the experience of being rushed to hospital in a civilian car because an ambulance would take too long, and stopping breathing within minutes of arriving.

    People in those circumstances blocked even briefly by the selfish c*nts of ER will die while they are being delayed.

    So imo ER are about as far beneath contempt as it is possible to get.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,704
    edited July 2022

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    The take from that is Mordaunt is going to win. And win big. Whoever her opponent.

    This may yet collapse into a coronation, as the MPs realise the contest is over.
    Yes indeed, Sunak drops out and gets to be Chancellor again?
    I think Sunak returning as CoE would cause a number of problems not least that it would be a red rag to the Forever Boris-ers and it might not be best to antagonise them as your first action.

    If Rishi doesn’t win this contest I suspect he will step down at the next election and find a cushy job somewhere.

  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,452

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She's the Catherine Deneuve of British politics.

    image
    Far. Too. Much. Makeup.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,704

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    The take from that is Mordaunt is going to win. And win big. Whoever her opponent.

    This may yet collapse into a coronation, as the MPs realise the contest is over.
    This is the one I think for Sky from yougov, other polls of members with very different results are available this week. But of course, the only right poll is the one you like 😁

    Interesting how sky treated it as the “only” poll done, not related it to it’s all over the road cousins, I thought our media was beyond that approach these days.

    Got to be said though, Penny’s no longer interesting outsider or under dog, she’s a player in this now, one of the big three in with a chance, it will feel a bit of a failure and disappointment not to make top 2 from here, would it not?
    Feel free to link to those other polls
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    She's utterly unknown to the vast majority of voters. The previous replacements without an election weren't.
    Brown, Major, May, Johnson.
    Big gamble.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,704
    Cookie said:

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She's the Catherine Deneuve of British politics.

    image
    Far. Too. Much. Makeup.
    You know that's Deneuve not Mordaunt, right?
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,062

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded

    40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)

    That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)

    You wonder if schools will be able to open in those temperatures. The appalling build quality - cramped, badly ventilated, too much glass and concrete - that was such a curse during Covid is not less of an issue in high temperatures.
    One of the weather models has a forecast for 31C in south central England…. At 7am on Monday morning

    WTF

    I enjoy weather geekery and record-chasing but those night time/morning temperatures would certainly kill people. Let’s hope they are wrong
    Yes.

    From my POV the biggest problem with this heatwave is it’s sheer longevity. I was up north at the weekend, walking, and it was perfect on the hills, 23c and clear. I got back down here and it
    has been 30c+ frequently and has only briefly dropped below 20c in the middle of the bloody nights. I have been trying to work and sleep in high temperatures with no relief, even in the evenings. And it’s going to get hotter.

    Grim.

    It’s hot where I am too
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987
    GIN1138 said:

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    What are they making of her, out of interest?
    They haven't heard of her. So not much.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,704

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,062

    IanB2 said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    moonshine said:

    HYUFD said:

    stodge said:

    HYUFD said:

    Truss, Badenoch and Braverman combined came to 122 votes, just over 1/3 of Tory MPs. So if they all combined behind one of them they would get a candidate in the final 2. However if the supporters of any of the 3 go to Sunak or Mordaunt that no longer applies and the Right’s candidate gets knocked out.

    So they cannot afford any leakage, unless Zahawi’s support mainly goes to that block not Sunak and Mordaunt

    Are you suggesting therefore there are three roughly equal "factions" within the Parliamentary Party - supporters of Sunak, supporters of Mordaunt and supporters of the best placed "right" candidate?

    This seems reminiscent of 2001 when it was alleged some MPs voted tactically to ensure Portillo wouldn't make it through to the membership voting which opened the door for Iain Duncan Smith to face and defeat Clarke.

    I begin to wonder whether Sunak might end up the Portillo of this leadership election.
    Different to 2001 though as Tugendhat is closest to Clarke ideologically of those left, Sunak and Mordaunt could be seen as closest to Portillo, Badenoch, Truss and Braverman closest to IDS
    of the last 6 remaining

    Setting aside your own preference, who do you see making the final 2 now?
    Truss and Mordaunt, just. However could be Sunak v Mordaunt if not all Badenoch and
    Braverman votes transfer to Truss
    What’s the chances of a grand Stop Truss coronation after tomorrows vote? Tommy Tug falls behind PM in exchange for foreign sec. Rishi realises he isn’t going to win and just wants his
    old job back. Kemi bought off with Home Sec,
    which might be Gove’s plan for her all along. Or are we sure this is really going to Members…?
    Unless it is Sunak v Mordaunt, in which case Sunak may drop out in return for a Cabinet post given members polls show Mordaunt trouncing him, the ERG will ensure it goes to the members as their candidate would also beat Sunak and has more of a chance v Mordaunt then Rishi does


    Keeping it away from the batshit membership and getting rid of the clown a month early; what’s not to like?
    They have all signed a “won’t drop out of in final 2” clause at the 22 havn’t they?
    How sweet that you still trust the Tories 😂
    Oh I see. “They won’t do that, because I have in my hand a piece of paper…”
    Yep! 😁
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    GIN1138 said:

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    What are they making of her, out of interest?
    Hard to tell - BBC flicked through the comments about PM in about a nanosec - the only obvious comment was that she was too focused on trans issues. Someone else said she seemed straight off Loose Women.

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,714

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Good try but total nonsense. Badenoch would beat all of the white men and most of the white women in the membership vote.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,082

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope.

    image

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-clear-favourite-next-conservative-l
  • Options
    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,455
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    So boycott them (whoever it was, I didn't view a big image). If the silent majority are big enough then they'll pick up that such campaigns hurt sales and ditch them. It really is the only way to change behaviour if you find it troubling.

    (For me, this would neither make me more or less likely to buy. It's an irrelevance. It's just advertising afterall, ACMEcorp might be horribly sexist but running ads like this)
    Are you old enough to remember the looong stream of female underwear ads on the London Underground? It was like being trapped in the lingerie part of one of those mail order catalogues. The current ad is at least a change.
    Old enough, likely, but not a frequent London visitor. But women have had to put up with all kinds of shit in advertising over the years. I've no particular problem with this ad, but even if I did, well it's nothing compared to what has gone before.
  • Options
    bigglesbiggles Posts: 4,347

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    That’s where life is unfair for the opposition though. If she wins, by the Autumn more people will know about her than about Starmer.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    dixiedean said:

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    She's utterly unknown to the vast majority of voters. The previous replacements without an election weren't.
    Brown, Major, May, Johnson.
    Big gamble.
    Well they have heard of Truss and dislike her and the Tory membership have heard of Sunak and seem to dislike him.

    Major wasn't that well known in 1990 had been in top Cabinet jobs only a short while, in 1963 the clear favourite was Butler not Home who got the job
  • Options
    Mail are going hard in on Truss.

    And attacking Penny for issues with trans, God help us
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,598
    edited July 2022

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    So the heatwave has been downgraded…. Only to be upgraded

    40C now forecast for Tuesday across parts of central, eastern England (as far north as Yorkshire)

    That’s a mind-boggling temp. And now just 6 days away it is within the reasonably likely timeframe (tho it could still be derailed, natch)

    You wonder if schools will be able to open in those temperatures. The appalling build quality - cramped, badly ventilated, too much glass and concrete - that was such a curse during Covid is not less of an issue in high temperatures.
    One of the weather models has a forecast for 31C in south central England…. At 7am on Monday morning

    WTF

    I enjoy weather geekery and record-chasing but those night time/morning temperatures would certainly kill people. Let’s hope they are wrong
    Yes.

    From my POV the biggest problem with this heatwave is it’s sheer longevity. I was up north at the weekend, walking, and it was perfect on the hills, 23c and clear. I got back down here and it
    has been 30c+ frequently and has only briefly dropped below 20c in the middle of the bloody nights. I have been trying to work and sleep in high temperatures with no relief, even in the evenings. And it’s going to get hotter.

    Grim.

    It’s hot where I am too
    Here yesterday was uncomfortable - 28C, and today was OK because of a cool night last night.

    But I have ordered a portable (ish) Aircon / Heatpump to give me 3-4 hours to get the temperature right up or down starting at 7am in the morning when the East facing solar gets the morning sun.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,748

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mordaunt could turn out to be a vacuous non-entity. She could be a lot worse than that.
    She could be great.
    We simply don't know.
    Has she ever done a long interview with a serious interviewer?
    It's a huge gamble.

    I think we do know. Mordaunt has been a minister for 8 years in several departments. She achieved essentially nothing in any of them and was responsible for a number of medium sized blow-ups. Not a great track record, but she was also slightly unlucky - unfair that she should be sacked as Defence Sec after just 3 months when her predecessor was Gavin WIlliamson who managed to last two years.

    But she is personable. If I were a Conservative Party member looking for a campaigner, I could do worse than Penny Mordaunt. And would do worse if I chose almost any of the alternatives.
    Really? How do you measure 'achieved nothing'? Personally I think if a minister can run their department in a quite, organised way without creating headlines, good or bad, then they have done a pretty bloody good job.

    I don't want Mordaunt to win but I do want ministers to quietly get on with their job and not be making headlines or 'achieving' stuff beyond quiet competence.
    I am not talking about "quiet competence". Maybe "quiet incompetence". She's had a few gaffes along the way, but nothing spectacular.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope. With yougov too. Datasets here:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/6shnrhfen6/ConservativePartyMembers_LeadershipContenders_220713_w.pdf

  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,647
    Carnyx said:

    Selebian said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    So boycott them (whoever it was, I didn't view a big image). If the silent majority are big enough then they'll pick up that such campaigns hurt sales and ditch them. It really is the only way to change behaviour if you find it troubling.

    (For me, this would neither make me more or less likely to buy. It's an irrelevance. It's just advertising afterall, ACMEcorp might be horribly sexist but running ads like this)
    Are you old enough to remember the looong stream of female underwear ads on the London Underground? It was like being trapped in the lingerie part of one of those mail order catalogues. The current ad is at least a change.
    Yes it was a nightmare having to run up the down escalator so you could get a longer look.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    Express swings behind Mordaunt.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    image

    The take from that is Mordaunt is going to win. And win big. Whoever her opponent.

    This may yet collapse into a coronation, as the MPs realise the contest is over.
    Yes indeed, Sunak drops out and gets to be Chancellor again?
    Hope so.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125
    edited July 2022

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope.

    image

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-clear-favourite-next-conservative-l
    Liz and Rishi now yesterday's Cabinet players.....

    And as such, their offers of patronage are worthless.
  • Options

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Well a lot of Labour members are probably racist too, it doesn't mean most or indeed all are.

    They are choosing Penny because she's the best candidate.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    Mail panics...


  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,441
    dixiedean said:

    I think I'll be betting on Starmer as next PM when the result is declared.
    Not because he's any good at all, mind.

    A danger of Tories coming out of this looking a bit split as a party, yet still no closer to plans and policy direction for the financial crisis, or able to explain what they stand for post Boris?
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,598

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    My thesis is that there is so little actual information about Tory members out there, even down to how many there are, that all the talking heads are wibbling away without the foggiest notion about any if it.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,704
    Andy_JS said:

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Good try but total nonsense. Badenoch would beat all of the white men and most of the white women in the membership vote.
    Well maybe.

    But not according to that poll. She doesn't beat either of the white women and she barely (within MoE) beats Tugendhat.

    According to that poll.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,478
    edited July 2022

    Mail panics...


    Meltdown time. Still, they do unfortunately have some sway…
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,030
    edited July 2022

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    I hope not and am not sure that is entirely true, otherwise even Hunt would have led Sunak and Badenoch but may be true for a minority.

    Often forgotten in 2012 Romney got 59% of the white vote v Obama, the highest share of the white vote for any GOP candidate since 1988 and more even than the 57% of the white vote Trump got v Hillary in 2016. It was only huge turnout by black voters that re elected Obama. Even McCain-Palin got 55% of the white vote in 2008 too. Most white voters in the US never voted to make Obama President
  • Options
    OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,122
    dixiedean said:

    Mordaunt unheard of by the Newsnight focus group in Rotherham.

    She's utterly unknown to the vast majority of voters. The previous replacements without an election weren't.
    Brown, Major, May, Johnson.
    Big gamble.
    Major is the closest precedent - he had had a couple of big jobs in Cabinet when he replaced Thatcher and so was more of a front rank politician than Mordaunt is but was a fairly unknown quality compared to both Heseltine and Hurd. That choice worked out pretty well for the Tories, at least in 1992. I think Mordaunt is a huge gamble for the Tories, though, and I think for a whole host of reasons it won't work out for them. I think they are fucked whoever they go with, but in my opinion Sunak is the least risky option.
  • Options
    CookieCookie Posts: 11,452

    Cookie said:

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She's the Catherine Deneuve of British politics.

    image
    Far. Too. Much. Makeup.
    You know that's Deneuve not Mordaunt, right?
    I actually realised after I posted! But that was actually my reaction last time I saw Mordaunt as well as my reaction to that picture, so I just let it be.
    In fact, I think it makes my point: I didn't see the woman, just the amount of gloop she had in her face.
    I find make-up vaguely icky, and too much make-up very icky. I get a physical feeling of slight revulsion, similar to what you might feel seeing a child with snot dribbling down to its top lip.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,704

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope. With yougov too. Datasets here:

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/6shnrhfen6/ConservativePartyMembers_LeadershipContenders_220713_w.pdf

    Fair enough - I stand corrected. Thanks
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,441

    Mail panics...


    Quite right too! LOL. The right beloved by the mail have about 24hrs to sort themselves out or more might fail to give the members a candidate. That would be Dee lish usssss 🤤
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope.

    image

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-clear-favourite-next-conservative-l
    Liz and Rishi now yesterday's Cabinet players.....

    And as such, their offers of patronage are worthless.
    There must be a german word for clinging onto your Cabinet post long after you should have resigned in protest at the lies and chaos and then finding to your surprise that no one buys your bullshit about the benefit of the doubt.

  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,675

    dixiedean said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    Or indeed private companies advertising in general.
    It would be interesting to follow the money and see if indeed it is a private company (I can't see a commercial benefit?) or if you and I are paying for it in some form.
    It appears to be paid for by EE, a private company: see https://www.campaignasia.com/video/ee-tackles-online-sexist-abuse-in-campaign-telling-men-its-their-problem/480101 for details.
  • Options
    LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 15,311
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    I disagree. It is not free speech. It is a nuisance.

    Breaching the Peace is criminal behaviour (yes, we can argue about technicalities).

    Steve Bray does not need an amplified public address system interfering with people trying to do their normal jobs in adjacent office buildings. Him being silent holding a sign is a protest, without interfering with other people.

    Take away the nuisance, and he can still protest.
    A fair point. Some balance to be struck in that you can speak and protest, but does that mean you have to be able to do so in the specific manner you wish?

    I err on the side of caution in these matters as I know a politician's answer is a vaguely worded new law which can and eventually will be abused, but there are some areas of nuance.
    Take for example noise. We have some rules around noise being limited after 7pm, and further limited after 11pm. I think most people would agree that if you took a loudhailer to someone's house and tried to keep them awake all night with a loud protest that your right to free speech is not sufficient justification for what would amount to harassment.

    But Steve Bray hasn't taken things that far, so I'm a bit uncomfortable with the nuisance argument being used to curtail his protest. The dividing line should be whether it constitutes harassment, not mere annoyance in my view.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,704

    Mail are going hard in on Truss.

    And attacking Penny for issues with trans, God help us


    It's the Mail versus the Express! Gotta laugh.

    Is the Sun still rooting for Badenoch?
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,637
    So if Rishi Rich backers don't want The Truss to win then they should vote tactically for Pretty Penny so she can beat The Truss with the membership.

    Otherwise their man loses to The Truss.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266

    Mail panics...


    Quite right too! LOL. The right beloved by the mail have about 24hrs to sort themselves out or more might fail to give the members a candidate. That would be Dee lish usssss 🤤
    I guess the subliminal message is unite behind Leeds Liz now?
  • Options
    bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 7,675

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    So your objection isn’t too free speech, it’s too capitalism?
  • Options
    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,441
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She's the Catherine Deneuve of British politics.

    image
    Far. Too. Much. Makeup.
    You know that's Deneuve not Mordaunt, right?
    I actually realised after I posted! But that was actually my reaction last time I saw Mordaunt as well as my reaction to that picture, so I just let it be.
    In fact, I think it makes my point: I didn't see the woman, just the amount of gloop she had in her face.
    I find make-up vaguely icky, and too much make-up very icky. I get a physical feeling of slight revulsion, similar to what you might feel seeing a child with snot dribbling down to its top lip.
    Willi done well. The likeness with Penny today was soooo similar!
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,022
    From tomorrow’s Torygraph, Truss is going to take aim at Mordaunt publicly tomorrow. It’s going to get nasty I suspect.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,987
    edited July 2022
    This may be a bit out there, but...
    If you have a twin of the opposite sex don't you have a living example of what it would be to be trans?
    I mean. You literally shared a womb with it. And grew up with it. It's there every day.
  • Options
    Gutted I didn’t realise I should have been seething at Waterloo adverts tonight

    Pendolino Mordaunt has started like a train
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,199
    Tomorrow: another day, another vote.

    Goodnight! 👍
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,704
    dixiedean said:

    This may be a bit out there, but...
    If you have a twin of the opposite sex don't you have a living example of what it would be to be trans?
    I mean. You literally shared a womb with it. And grew up with it. It's there every day.

    Non-identical twins are no closer related than any full siblings.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266

    Mail panics...


    Meltdown time. Still, they do unfortunately have some sway…
    Continuous Boris camp having a nightmare this evening.

    Slipping away from them.

    Mogg may even have to return to earning an honest penny from the stock exchange at this rate.

  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,704

    From tomorrow’s Torygraph, Truss is going to take aim at Mordaunt publicly tomorrow. It’s going to get nasty I suspect.

    Bring it on!
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,612
    Re: the current southern England heatwave, during last ones in Seattle, in stuffy apartment with no air conditioning AND southern exposure, only thing that made conditions quasi-bearable, was small cube-shaped swamp cooler; fill with cold water and plug it in.

    Will only cool down the VERY immediate area in front of it, but (if next to your bed for instance) just enough to make a significant difference.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,714

    From tomorrow’s Torygraph, Truss is going to take aim at Mordaunt publicly tomorrow. It’s going to get nasty I suspect.

    Good. Hopefully Kemi Badenoch will come through the middle.
  • Options
    BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 31,704

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    So your objection isn’t too free speech, it’s too capitalism?
    My objection is too many 'o's ;-)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2022
    Telsa just lost their director of AI....

    It’s been a great pleasure to help Tesla towards its goals over the last 5 years and a difficult decision to part ways. In that time, Autopilot graduated from lane keeping to city streets and I look forward to seeing the exceptionally strong Autopilot team continue that momentum.

    https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1547332300186066944?s=20&t=5QdgCydzNEF1OqOjXTc_Qw

    Can't be good for the share price.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,598

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    darkage said:

    Woke isn't a thing. It's all made up. Massively exaggerated etc.

    Tonight's hectoring at Waterloo station - taken on my phone.


    It is strangely totalitarian.

    You find yourself starting to criticise it (ie: is 'sexist hate' really only a male phenomenon?), but then you realise that the act of criticism is defined as an act of denial or oppression, so whatever you try and do, you can't win.

    The only viable solution is actually just to shrug your shoulders and ignore it.
    Totalitarian? To have a poster suggesting that men could do something about stopping sexist hate? It’s not exactly Kristallnacht.
    I don't want to be hectored by a corporation on what I need to do as a man on my way to work and home again. It's sanctimonious and patronising.

    The reason no-one says anything is they know the response would be: "if people don't want to buy a contract from an inclusive phone company then they are welcome to shop elsewhere".

    So, people ignore it. And quietly simmer.

    So, you’re saying because of your hurt feelings, we should do away with free speech?
    It's not "free speech". This isn't about denying an individual the ability to freely express their views without fear or censure: this is about a megacorporation exploiting its financial muscle to buy up a massive public space and scream it in your face every day, day in day out.

    We've all agreed Steve Bray is a dickhead, and what he does can't just be defended with "free speech".

    This is the corporate Steve Bray.
    Of course its free speech.

    And so too is Steve Bray incidentally.

    Even dickheads have a right to free speech.
    Steve Bray pretends that causing a public nuisance is free speech.

    It is not.

    The man needs an ASBO.
    It is free speech. Nuisances are part of the price of free speech, if you take away dickheads free speech you can take away anyone else's too.

    The law should not get involved in preventing speech that hurts people's feelings. Unless there's incitement to violence etc, its not or shouldn't be criminal behaviour.
    I disagree. It is not free speech. It is a nuisance.

    Breaching the Peace is criminal behaviour (yes, we can argue about technicalities).

    Steve Bray does not need an amplified public address system interfering with people trying to do their normal jobs in adjacent office buildings. Him being silent holding a sign is a protest, without interfering with other people.

    Take away the nuisance, and he can still protest.
    A fair point. Some balance to be struck in that you can speak and protest, but does that mean you have to be able to do so in the specific manner you wish?

    I err on the side of caution in these matters as I know a politician's answer is a vaguely worded new law which can and eventually will be abused, but there are some areas of nuance.
    Take for example noise. We have some rules around noise being limited after 7pm, and further limited after 11pm. I think most people would agree that if you took a loudhailer to someone's house and tried to keep them awake all night with a loud protest that your right to free speech is not sufficient justification for what would amount to harassment.

    But Steve Bray hasn't taken things that far, so I'm a bit uncomfortable with the nuisance argument being used to curtail his protest. The dividing line should be whether it constitutes harassment, not mere annoyance in my view.
    I'd say that 2000 or 3000 people trying to work have similar expectations of being able to get on with their lives undisturbed.

    There is no reason why Steve Bray needs the kind of PR system that created such chaos in all those media interviews. Or any reason why stopping him creating that nuisance is an unacceptable restriction.
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    CookieCookie Posts: 11,452
    Wife (political bellweather) mentioned Badenoch. Said she hadn't liked what she'd heard but couldn't remember what it was she didn't like. She dug into her a bit and views were more mixed - but concerns about the idea of a party leader for whom religion is quite such a part of her hinterland.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266
    It's mainly Mordaunt surge on the front pages.

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    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,820

    From tomorrow’s Torygraph, Truss is going to take aim at Mordaunt publicly tomorrow. It’s going to get nasty I suspect.

    Sunak needs it to hit home. He might well lose to Truss too, but his position is more recoverable there.
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    MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 12,441

    Interesting. Do I detect a bit of race bias in the Conservative members polled? Who'da thunk it, eh?

    You mean because the white men are the least popular?
    No, I mean in those 17 match ups shown the white candidate beats the BAME candidate with the Conservative members polled in 7 instances whilst the BAME candidate beats the white candidate in only 2 instances.

    Clear bias from the Conservative members polled.

    As well you know.
    Or maybe they just think Mordaunt is the best candidate?
    Just a quick look at the Sunak column will tell you there's more to it than that.

    My hypothesis: Quite a few Conservative members are racist and won't vote for a BAME candidate. The YouGov poll supports that hypothesis. If I am right it has betting implications.

    Just putting it out there.
    Why is Badenoch coming second in most membership polls then when all candidates are put?
    ConHome polls not Tory members.
    Nope.

    image

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/07/13/penny-mordaunt-clear-favourite-next-conservative-l
    Liz and Rishi now yesterday's Cabinet players.....

    And as such, their offers of patronage are worthless.
    I appreciate your excitement Mark, with how it’s going for your gal you backed long time back.

    Pulling you back to earth for a moment, what would be Penny’s platform and pitch to the country, if she leads into a general election? Rooted in Conservative values?
    Personality driven, like Boris success? Or leaning on the success of her policies and performance from now to General Election?
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,714
    Charles Walker MP was saying earlier that the 1922 Committee might set another bar for the next round, somewhere between 40 and 50 votes. Does anyone know whether this has been put in place?
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    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,748
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    dixiedean said:

    Mordaunt could turn out to be a vacuous non-entity. She could be a lot worse than that.
    She could be great.
    We simply don't know.
    Has she ever done a long interview with a serious interviewer?
    It's a huge gamble.

    I think we do know. Mordaunt has been a minister for 8 years in several departments. She achieved essentially nothing in any of them and was responsible for a number of medium sized blow-ups. Not a great track record, but she was also slightly unlucky - unfair that she should be sacked as Defence Sec after just 3 months when her predecessor was Gavin WIlliamson who managed to last two years.

    But she is personable. If I were a Conservative Party member looking for a campaigner, I could do worse than Penny Mordaunt. And would do worse if I chose almost any of the alternatives.
    Really? How do you measure 'achieved nothing'? Personally I think if a minister can run their department in a quite, organised way without creating headlines, good or bad, then they have done a pretty bloody good job.

    I don't want Mordaunt to win but I do want ministers to quietly get on with their job and not be making headlines or 'achieving' stuff beyond quiet competence.
    I am not talking about "quiet competence". Maybe "quiet incompetence". She's had a few gaffes along the way, but nothing spectacular.
    How do you measure 'achieved nothing'? You ask.

    So if I take Liz Truss, who I definitely don't want to be PM, she oversaw - 60? - rollover free trade agreements with non-EU countries. They may not in aggregate be quite as good as the EU agreements they replaced, but they didn't happen by default. Some pretty good project management went into them.

    Penny Mordaunt in her year as Trade Minister has achieved one "trade agreement" actually an MoU with the State of Indiana, hardly a powerhouse in the federation, which contained not a single commitment, not even for an educational exchange or a trade visit, and which senior Indiana officials didn't even know about when asked.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    we have now given dall-e 2 access to 100,000 users. next goal: 1 million.

    https://twitter.com/sama/status/1547212678644371457?s=20&t=5QdgCydzNEF1OqOjXTc_Qw
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    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,022
    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    Tomorrows Papers giving Mordant the Big Mo. 😁

    She looks very “fresh” with her hair style makeover - shorter, lighter and more lob like, which gets my thumbs up - the extra slap on her face, and big beaming smile from her fine result.

    She's the Catherine Deneuve of British politics.

    image
    Far. Too. Much. Makeup.
    You know that's Deneuve not Mordaunt, right?
    I actually realised after I posted! But that was actually my reaction last time I saw Mordaunt as well as my reaction to that picture, so I just let it be.
    In fact, I think it makes my point: I didn't see the woman, just the amount of gloop she had in her face.
    I find make-up vaguely icky, and too much make-up very icky. I get a physical feeling of slight revulsion, similar to what you might feel
    seeing a child with snot dribbling down to its top lip.
    That predilection must have seriously limited your choice of women over the years.

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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,714
    Iain Dale on Newsnight: good result for Mordaunt, Badenoch. Mediocre result: Sunak, Truss. Bad result: Hunt.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,266

    Telsa just lost their director of AI....

    It’s been a great pleasure to help Tesla towards its goals over the last 5 years and a difficult decision to part ways. In that time, Autopilot graduated from lane keeping to city streets and I look forward to seeing the exceptionally strong Autopilot team continue that momentum.

    https://twitter.com/karpathy/status/1547332300186066944?s=20&t=5QdgCydzNEF1OqOjXTc_Qw

    Can't be good for the share price.

    Move to Apple or Twitter?
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    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,233
    Watching Pesto. Team Sunak's cheerleader tonight is the airheaded Lucy Frazer. Come on Rishi shape up, she is useless.
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