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Bad news for people laying a 2022 general election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Leon said:

    A Boris V the Entire World election would be a spectacle

    Could be close

    He would have no money to fund it.
  • eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can the PM really call a GE by himself without the approval of his party?

    We do have a wacky constitution

    Yup.
    Even if his entire Cabinet says, Nah, do one??

    Incredible
    Yup, this part of our constitution is based on a letter to The Times in 1950.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
    1) if the existing Parliament is still "vital, viable, and capable of doing its job",
    2) if a general election would be "detrimental to the national economy", and
    3) if the Sovereign could "rely on finding another prime minister who could govern for a reasonable period with a working majority in the House of Commons".

    point 2 is supposedly irrelevant now but surely points 1 and 3 hold - it would just require the Tory Party to hold a coronation rather than an election...
    Coronation for the ex-Chancellor.

    I have 5000 reasons that would be a good idea.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    David Herdson on Twitter makes an amusing point. https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1544708292454268929?t=b5Zyvw9yBl3ZFZrpKWh9JQ&s=19

    Boris requesting and HMQ approving an early election would end up with the Tories worse than decimated and probably a 1997 style Labour landslide.

    It ain't happening. But would almost be funny if it did.

    Why won't it happen? Nick Palmer has made the point that Gordon Brown threatened an election to Labour MPs who were trying to remove him. Unfortunately we have a very elderly and frail monarch who even in her prime would always act on the advice of her prime minister. I wonder what her son is thinking about it all?
    She has advisors. I think she would refuse. I also think there could be a big role for the Speaker as this pans out.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Sean_F said:

    There's no reason for the Queen to agree, and who would be left to campaign on his behalf?

    If they have any sense the Cabinet Secretary and her Private Secretary will have been discussing this very scenario today.

    Their objective will be to avoid putting the Queen in a political position and they can do that by making it clear where the real politics lie and organising alternative political delegations accordingly.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    GIN1138 said:

    Jonathan said:

    The Tories are not fit for office.

    Indeed! A loooooooong period of opposition for the Tories is needed IMO.
    Fit for opposition?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Leon said:

    Speaking as someone not averse to a bit of personal storification, I wonder if Boris has one eye on that memoir advance

    The more spectacularly chaotic and bizarre he makes his departure, the more publishers will clamour to buy his tell-all autobiography - and the more they will pay

    This week will make the perfect ending - to volume one

    Yes in his mind he’s just entering the wilderness years.
  • I wonder if HYUFD is going to come online again before he gets his software update?

    The old software seems to have crashed.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited July 2022
    Alistair said:

    (((Dan Hodges))) Retweeted
    Noa Hoffman
    @hoffman_noa
    ·
    6m
    Hearing the 1922 rules have now officially been changed

    To ban people called Boris being leader?
    He'd just point to his passport. "It says Alexander here!"
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    BREAKING The 1922 committee executive has met and decided not to change the rules to allow a second no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
    Instead 1922 executive elections will be held on Monday 2pm to 4pm.
    All 18 places on the executive will be up for grabs. Proxy votes allowed.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1544715690237726723


    BoZo won't resign, and they can't make him...
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    There's no reason for the Queen to agree, and who would be left to campaign on his behalf?

    @HYUFD
    I suspect @HYUFD has sent in his resignation letter.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    "Pirouette around our fractured values" is a cut above the usual.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    Perhaps Boris could call on his supporters to storm Parliament?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    The more I think about it, the more I am convinced he is - at least partly - staging this all as theatre for the purposes of the memoir sales. He is not stupid, he does like drama, he knows how to tell a story, he understands publishing

    The book would end drably if he just meekly resigned after a mild ticking off from Ben Wallace. The book, the story, the life, the whole mythos of Boris Johnson requires that he is assassinated with much shedding of blood and screams in dark alleys. That’s the only way Caesar could fall, ditto Boris

    That’s ONE reason he is dragging this out, with every dramatic hour that passes with him still in place, he adds another £20k to the advance he will get
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING The 1922 committee executive has met and decided not to change the rules to allow a second no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
    Instead 1922 executive elections will be held on Monday 2pm to 4pm.
    All 18 places on the executive will be up for grabs. Proxy votes allowed.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1544715690237726723


    BoZo won't resign, and they can't make him...

    To be honest I read that as “he’s gone anyway, no need to rush this”.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 1,904
    Chris said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    If Johnson were to call a General Election, as a way of clinging to power, or at least attempting to, I would revise all my previous criticism of the FTPA.

    As an aide... Were Johnson that stupid (and I really don't think he is), then I think there would be an awful lot of very surprised libdem MPs in the South of England.
    But think about it. Maybe if he can't have an election the only way of saving his premiership would be a nuclear war with Russia.
    But if that happened, there would be nobody left to read all about Boris in the History books. He would be forgotten with immediate effect.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING The 1922 committee executive has met and decided not to change the rules to allow a second no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
    Instead 1922 executive elections will be held on Monday 2pm to 4pm.
    All 18 places on the executive will be up for grabs. Proxy votes allowed.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1544715690237726723


    BoZo won't resign, and they can't make him...

    Problem with stories like this is that we are getting 2 opposite decisions from different reporters.

    The sane thing is for the current 1922 committee to ensure they have enough letters that they perform the deed as their last act...
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING The 1922 committee executive has met and decided not to change the rules to allow a second no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
    Instead 1922 executive elections will be held on Monday 2pm to 4pm.
    All 18 places on the executive will be up for grabs. Proxy votes allowed.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1544715690237726723


    BoZo won't resign, and they can't make him...

    Well well, that is a development.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,526

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can the PM really call a GE by himself without the approval of his party?

    We do have a wacky constitution

    Yup.
    Even if his entire Cabinet says, Nah, do one??

    Incredible
    Yup, this part of our constitution is based on a letter to The Times in 1950.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
    In these circumstances the Queen takes the advice of her Privy Council - which is effectively the Cabinet. Johnson has already lost most of them. Besides, as you keep pointing out the last time they tried something like this over prorogation it was declared illegal. She enabled an illegal act perpetrated by Johnson. Do you not think she will have looked at that and thought never again?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    David Herdson on Twitter makes an amusing point. https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1544708292454268929?t=b5Zyvw9yBl3ZFZrpKWh9JQ&s=19

    Boris requesting and HMQ approving an early election would end up with the Tories worse than decimated and probably a 1997 style Labour landslide.

    It ain't happening. But would almost be funny if it did.

    Why won't it happen? Nick Palmer has made the point that Gordon Brown threatened an election to Labour MPs who were trying to remove him. Unfortunately we have a very elderly and frail monarch who even in her prime would always act on the advice of her prime minister. I wonder what her son is thinking about it all?
    She has a higher duty to protect the constitution from abuse and this is abuse and her advisors will be telling her that. She's not that frail.

    Anyway by time Johnson's car makes its way through traffic to Windsor he will no longer command the House and she can see him to accept his resignation.
    Or helicopter. But the humiliation of not getting the chopper back ...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Leon said:

    Speaking as someone not averse to a bit of personal storification, I wonder if Boris has one eye on that memoir advance

    The more spectacularly chaotic and bizarre he makes his departure, the more publishers will clamour to buy his tell-all autobiography - and the more they will pay

    This week will make the perfect ending - to volume one

    Volume 2: The Prime Ministerial Comeback? 😯
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Boris Johnson finally admits meeting ex-KGB agent Alexander Lebedev while Foreign Secretary, at height of Skripal poisoning crisis without officials or security. He went directly from NATO summit on Russia & Salisbury. Serious national security Qs. How was this allowed to happen? https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1544716533842206720/video/1
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,811
    If Zahawi literally took the job in order to stab Boris in the back then bravo. Well done that man!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Leon said:

    The more I think about it, the more I am convinced he is - at least partly - staging this all as theatre for the purposes of the memoir sales. He is not stupid, he does like drama, he knows how to tell a story, he understands publishing

    The book would end drably if he just meekly resigned after a mild ticking off from Ben Wallace. The book, the story, the life, the whole mythos of Boris Johnson requires that he is assassinated with much shedding of blood and screams in dark alleys. That’s the only way Caesar could fall, ditto Boris

    That’s ONE reason he is dragging this out, with every dramatic hour that passes with him still in place, he adds another £20k to the advance he will get

    Which Caesar, though?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447

    David Herdson on Twitter makes an amusing point. https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1544708292454268929?t=b5Zyvw9yBl3ZFZrpKWh9JQ&s=19

    Boris requesting and HMQ approving an early election would end up with the Tories worse than decimated and probably a 1997 style Labour landslide.

    It ain't happening. But would almost be funny if it did.

    Why won't it happen? Nick Palmer has made the point that Gordon Brown threatened an election to Labour MPs who were trying to remove him. Unfortunately we have a very elderly and frail monarch who even in her prime would always act on the advice of her prime minister. I wonder what her son is thinking about it all?
    Her private secretary, in reality, gives her a huge amount of political and constitutional advice and he's wired into the civil service and Government.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING The 1922 committee executive has met and decided not to change the rules to allow a second no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
    Instead 1922 executive elections will be held on Monday 2pm to 4pm.
    All 18 places on the executive will be up for grabs. Proxy votes allowed.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1544715690237726723


    BoZo won't resign, and they can't make him...

    That does give him a "window" from tonight to Monday to seek a dissolution.

    Surely he wouldn't would he?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Several Cabinet ministers in No 10 have their resignation letters in their pockets and ready to go

    If the PM refuses to go the message is clear - they will resign themselves

    It's the final extraordinary standoff with the PM - surely no way he can survive this

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1544716808267112451
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can the PM really call a GE by himself without the approval of his party?

    We do have a wacky constitution

    Yup.
    Even if his entire Cabinet says, Nah, do one??

    Incredible
    Yup, this part of our constitution is based on a letter to The Times in 1950.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
    In these circumstances the Queen takes the advice of her Privy Council - which is effectively the Cabinet. Johnson has already lost most of them. Besides, as you keep pointing out the last time they tried something like this over prorogation it was declared illegal. She enabled an illegal act perpetrated by Johnson. Do you not think she will have looked at that and thought never again?
    I think the Privy Councillors Cameron, May, Brown, Blair, and Major would also get a hearing.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    For the "Seattle is Dying" crowd

    Seattle Times ($) -

    . . . . [Washington State Office of Fiscal Management] OFM showed Seattle’s population at 742,000 and the Census Bureau’s number was 734,000 — a difference of only about 8,000. The two agencies’ estimates for King County were different by about 35,000, which isn’t so huge considering the total population was nearly 2.3 million last year.

    The two agencies are on different timetables in releasing their population data. The Census Bureau has a greater lag time — their 2021 figures came out only this spring — while OFM just released its 2022 estimates last week.

    The new OFM data shows growth has picked up steam as we emerge from the pandemic. . . .

    . . . . King County grew by around 30,000 from April 1, 2021 to April 1, 2022, and the population passed the 2.3 million mark. Most of the county’s growth was in Seattle, which is a similar pattern to what we saw in the 2010s, when Seattle grew at a much faster rate than the suburbs.

    Seattle’s population hit 762,500 in 2022, up around 20,000 from the year before. That’s an increase of 2.7%, which isn’t so far off from the impressive growth rates we saw in the boom era of the 2010s.

    In comparison, King County (not including Seattle) grew by only around 10,500 residents, or a .7% increase.

    The primary engine of growth in King County was migration, with about 22,000 more people moving in than moving away in the one-year period. OFM’s data also shows roughly 23,500 births and 15,000 deaths in King County, for what’s called a “natural increase” of close to 8,300. . . .

    SSI - for the first 25 years or so that I lived in Seattle, the city population share relative to the rest of the state AND rest of King County was slowly dropping, a trend that had been going on for decades prior.

    In recent years, the trend reversed, as could be seen on a year-to-year basis in the growth of voter registration and turnout in Seattle, especially in neighborhoods with growing numbers of techies.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING The 1922 committee executive has met and decided not to change the rules to allow a second no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
    Instead 1922 executive elections will be held on Monday 2pm to 4pm.
    All 18 places on the executive will be up for grabs. Proxy votes allowed.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1544715690237726723


    BoZo won't resign, and they can't make him...

    Problem with stories like this is that we are getting 2 opposite decisions from different reporters.

    The sane thing is for the current 1922 committee to ensure they have enough letters that they perform the deed as their last act...
    I suspect Old Lady has received cabinet assurances of defenestration so they dont change rules and store up future trouble for a more worthy leader
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078

    https://twitter.com/Aiannucci/status/1544712914174676992

    "Boris and Nadine: it’ll be like the end of Antony and Cleopatra."

    Romeo and Juliette.
    Laurel and Hardie [sic]
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING The 1922 committee executive has met and decided not to change the rules to allow a second no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
    Instead 1922 executive elections will be held on Monday 2pm to 4pm.
    All 18 places on the executive will be up for grabs. Proxy votes allowed.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1544715690237726723


    BoZo won't resign, and they can't make him...

    Disputed

    But anyway new committee will stand on a change the rules manifesto

    And anyway the Cabinet is about to resign en masse
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    GIN1138 said:

    That does give him a "window" from tonight to Monday to seek a dissolution.

    Surely he wouldn't would he?

    He has a scheduled call with The Queen tonight...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING The 1922 committee executive has met and decided not to change the rules to allow a second no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
    Instead 1922 executive elections will be held on Monday 2pm to 4pm.
    All 18 places on the executive will be up for grabs. Proxy votes allowed.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1544715690237726723


    BoZo won't resign, and they can't make him...

    Well well, that is a development.
    The Men in Grey Suits think they can get his resignation.....
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,526
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can the PM really call a GE by himself without the approval of his party?

    We do have a wacky constitution

    Yup.
    Even if his entire Cabinet says, Nah, do one??

    Incredible
    Yup, this part of our constitution is based on a letter to The Times in 1950.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
    1) if the existing Parliament is still "vital, viable, and capable of doing its job",
    2) if a general election would be "detrimental to the national economy", and
    3) if the Sovereign could "rely on finding another prime minister who could govern for a reasonable period with a working majority in the House of Commons".

    point 2 is supposedly irrelevant now but surely points 1 and 3 hold - it would just require the Tory Party to hold a coronation rather than an election...
    Not really. It would just require the deputy PM to show he has the support of Parliament as a caretaker.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    The more I think about it, the more I am convinced he is - at least partly - staging this all as theatre for the purposes of the memoir sales. He is not stupid, he does like drama, he knows how to tell a story, he understands publishing

    The book would end drably if he just meekly resigned after a mild ticking off from Ben Wallace. The book, the story, the life, the whole mythos of Boris Johnson requires that he is assassinated with much shedding of blood and screams in dark alleys. That’s the only way Caesar could fall, ditto Boris

    That’s ONE reason he is dragging this out, with every dramatic hour that passes with him still in place, he adds another £20k to the advance he will get

    Which Caesar, though?
    He’s a mix isn’t he? A dash of Julius, a hint of Tiberius, distant echoes of Heliogabulus, not much Augustus
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    A general election certainly would be a crisis for Tory MPs.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    If I understand correctly the 1922 have decided NOT to change their rules today.

    Boris wriggles out again. He has his eye on outlasting Theresa May, and indeed the now vanishingly slim possibility of a dead cat from who knows where.

    Having said that, the 1922 is not the be-all and end-all.

    As I understand it, is no longer possible to fill all the ministerial posts, and nor does he appear to enjoy the support of Cabinet. Those facts alone would ordinarily end things.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,526
    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Leon said:

    The more I think about it, the more I am convinced he is - at least partly - staging this all as theatre for the purposes of the memoir sales. He is not stupid, he does like drama, he knows how to tell a story, he understands publishing

    The book would end drably if he just meekly resigned after a mild ticking off from Ben Wallace. The book, the story, the life, the whole mythos of Boris Johnson requires that he is assassinated with much shedding of blood and screams in dark alleys. That’s the only way Caesar could fall, ditto Boris

    That’s ONE reason he is dragging this out, with every dramatic hour that passes with him still in place, he adds another £20k to the advance he will get

    Which Caesar, though?
    He’s a mix isn’t he? A dash of Julius, a hint of Tiberius, distant echoes of Heliogabulus, not much Augustus
    Nero Claudius Caesar Augustus Germanicus
  • Shapps packing a revolver


  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited July 2022
    Guardian political editor confirms the previous post

    Jessica Elgot
    @jessicaelgot
    ·
    6m
    New - 1922 committee will not change rules tonight. Elections for the new committee will take place with results Monday night. Rules could then change by Tuesday.
    Jessica Elgot
    @jessicaelgot
    Committee decided it’s “only right” they know the change has full confidence of the party.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    The more I think about it, the more I am convinced he is - at least partly - staging this all as theatre for the purposes of the memoir sales. He is not stupid, he does like drama, he knows how to tell a story, he understands publishing

    The book would end drably if he just meekly resigned after a mild ticking off from Ben Wallace. The book, the story, the life, the whole mythos of Boris Johnson requires that he is assassinated with much shedding of blood and screams in dark alleys. That’s the only way Caesar could fall, ditto Boris

    That’s ONE reason he is dragging this out, with every dramatic hour that passes with him still in place, he adds another £20k to the advance he will get

    You seem to be implying, that best interests of (currently) United Kingdom or the (allegedly) Conservative and Unionist Party, are of LESS consideration to Boris Johnson than his own selfish interest?

    Could BJx2 make the same claim re: his (reputed) hero & role model, WSC?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    biggles said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING The 1922 committee executive has met and decided not to change the rules to allow a second no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
    Instead 1922 executive elections will be held on Monday 2pm to 4pm.
    All 18 places on the executive will be up for grabs. Proxy votes allowed.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1544715690237726723


    BoZo won't resign, and they can't make him...

    To be honest I read that as “he’s gone anyway, no need to rush this”.
    Or "As we're about to have an election, wait until next Monday before deciding."
  • If I understand correctly the 1922 have decided NOT to change their rules today.

    Boris wriggles out again. He has his eye on outlasting Theresa May, and indeed the now vanishingly slim possibility of a dead cat from who knows where.

    Having said that, the 1922 is not the be-all and end-all.

    As I understand it, is no longer possible to fill all the ministerial posts, and nor does he appear to enjoy the support of Cabinet. Those facts alone would ordinarily end things.

    He can outlast May be announcing his resignation tonight and saying he will serve until his successor is elected, with the election to end one day after he overtakes May.

    If he refuses to resign, then it becomes a case of the 1922 is elected on a change the rules mandate and he's gone by next week with immediate effect.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    DavidL said:

    Starting to feel that Zahawi must have thought that Tywin Lannister was a bit of a softy really whose generosity and loyalty got taken advantage of.

    Yeah cool move

    BUT fatal to leadership ambitions I think. Too much of a snake, esp coming after Boris
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    If I understand correctly the 1922 have decided NOT to change their rules today.

    Boris wriggles out again. He has his eye on outlasting Theresa May, and indeed the now vanishingly slim possibility of a dead cat from who knows where.

    Having said that, the 1922 is not the be-all and end-all.

    As I understand it, is no longer possible to fill all the ministerial posts, and nor does he appear to enjoy the support of Cabinet. Those facts alone would ordinarily end things.

    As said above by someone else, I wonder if the 1922 has been asked by the Cabinet to “stand down, it’s in hand”. That way the rules can be made at a more sedate pace, and be less brutal on the successor.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Senior Conservative MP tells me 1922 committee decided not to change the leadership rules immediately because they believe he’ll be gone within hours…
    https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1544718099294916610



    Have they met him..?
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    Shapps packing a revolver


    Presumably there is already a bottle of whisky on the premises?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can the PM really call a GE by himself without the approval of his party?

    We do have a wacky constitution

    Yup.
    Even if his entire Cabinet says, Nah, do one??

    Incredible
    Yup, this part of our constitution is based on a letter to The Times in 1950.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
    The Lascelles Principles are a constitutional convention in the United Kingdom beginning in 1950, under which the Sovereign can refuse a request from the Prime Minister to dissolve Parliament if three conditions are met:

    (1) the existing Parliament is still "vital, viable, and capable of doing its job",
    (2) if a general election would be "detrimental to the national economy", and
    (3) if the Sovereign could "rely on finding another prime minister who could govern for a reasonable period with a working majority in the House of Commons

    All three apply. It was literally written for circumstances like this.

    The monarch can refuse.
    Only correction is that Point 2 is (supposedly) no longer relevant...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,899
    Carnyx said:

    David Herdson on Twitter makes an amusing point. https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1544708292454268929?t=b5Zyvw9yBl3ZFZrpKWh9JQ&s=19

    Boris requesting and HMQ approving an early election would end up with the Tories worse than decimated and probably a 1997 style Labour landslide.

    It ain't happening. But would almost be funny if it did.

    Why won't it happen? Nick Palmer has made the point that Gordon Brown threatened an election to Labour MPs who were trying to remove him. Unfortunately we have a very elderly and frail monarch who even in her prime would always act on the advice of her prime minister. I wonder what her son is thinking about it all?
    She has a higher duty to protect the constitution from abuse and this is abuse and her advisors will be telling her that. She's not that frail.

    Anyway by time Johnson's car makes its way through traffic to Windsor he will no longer command the House and she can see him to accept his resignation.
    Or helicopter. But the humiliation of not getting the chopper back ...
    We will know things are serious if HMQ drives to Buckingham Palace in order to save time.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can the PM really call a GE by himself without the approval of his party?

    We do have a wacky constitution

    Yup.
    Even if his entire Cabinet says, Nah, do one??

    Incredible
    Yup, this part of our constitution is based on a letter to The Times in 1950.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
    1) if the existing Parliament is still "vital, viable, and capable of doing its job",
    2) if a general election would be "detrimental to the national economy", and
    3) if the Sovereign could "rely on finding another prime minister who could govern for a reasonable period with a working majority in the House of Commons".

    point 2 is supposedly irrelevant now but surely points 1 and 3 hold - it would just require the Tory Party to hold a coronation rather than an election...
    Only in the UK could part of our (unwritten) constitution be based on a letter to the Times in 1950 :)
    Why am I slightly proud of this?

    I am what holds this country back
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    The thing is:

    We didn't need a general election in 2017. The Queen agreed to it. Prime ministers will often seek a dissolution after 4 years of sitting. What is her justification for refusing?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson finally admits meeting ex-KGB agent Alexander Lebedev while Foreign Secretary, at height of Skripal poisoning crisis without officials or security. He went directly from NATO summit on Russia & Salisbury. Serious national security Qs. How was this allowed to happen? https://twitter.com/YvetteCooperMP/status/1544716533842206720/video/1

    Don't say rude things about Mr Lebedev. He's getting appointed Foreign Secretary tomorrow.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Come on Boris, just for the bants, fire those Cabinet Ministers in grey suits and replace them with Carrie Johnson, Lord Lebedev, Dilyn the dog, Stanley Johnson, the Russian violinist, the Canadian hairdresser, and Darius Guppy.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    If ever there was a case for a written constitution then Boris Johnson has made it through his complete disregard for convention
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022

    The thing is:

    We didn't need a general election in 2017. The Queen agreed to it. Prime ministers will often seek a dissolution after 4 years of sitting. What is her justification for refusing?

    That he does not have confidence from the House. She would not “refuse”, she would defer, until the above fact is transparent.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    The thing is:

    We didn't need a general election in 2017. The Queen agreed to it. Prime ministers will often seek a dissolution after 4 years of sitting. What is her justification for refusing?

    The majority in parliament don't want one and a stable majority government can be formed?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    The thing is:

    We didn't need a general election in 2017. The Queen agreed to it. Prime ministers will often seek a dissolution after 4 years of sitting. What is her justification for refusing?

    That he no longer commands a majority and she expects to be formally asked to appoint the person who does shortly.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    edited July 2022

    Carnyx said:

    David Herdson on Twitter makes an amusing point. https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1544708292454268929?t=b5Zyvw9yBl3ZFZrpKWh9JQ&s=19

    Boris requesting and HMQ approving an early election would end up with the Tories worse than decimated and probably a 1997 style Labour landslide.

    It ain't happening. But would almost be funny if it did.

    Why won't it happen? Nick Palmer has made the point that Gordon Brown threatened an election to Labour MPs who were trying to remove him. Unfortunately we have a very elderly and frail monarch who even in her prime would always act on the advice of her prime minister. I wonder what her son is thinking about it all?
    She has a higher duty to protect the constitution from abuse and this is abuse and her advisors will be telling her that. She's not that frail.

    Anyway by time Johnson's car makes its way through traffic to Windsor he will no longer command the House and she can see him to accept his resignation.
    Or helicopter. But the humiliation of not getting the chopper back ...
    We will know things are serious if HMQ drives to Buckingham Palace in order to save time.
    Or gets Charles to do it in Buck House. Where is the Chooky Rosay by the way?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can the PM really call a GE by himself without the approval of his party?

    We do have a wacky constitution

    Yup.
    Even if his entire Cabinet says, Nah, do one??

    Incredible
    Yup, this part of our constitution is based on a letter to The Times in 1950.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
    The Lascelles Principles are a constitutional convention in the United Kingdom beginning in 1950, under which the Sovereign can refuse a request from the Prime Minister to dissolve Parliament if three conditions are met:

    (1) the existing Parliament is still "vital, viable, and capable of doing its job",
    (2) if a general election would be "detrimental to the national economy", and
    (3) if the Sovereign could "rely on finding another prime minister who could govern for a reasonable period with a working majority in the House of Commons

    All three apply. It was literally written for circumstances like this.

    The monarch can refuse.
    Only correction is that Point 2 is (supposedly) no longer relevant...
    Probably because there are often elections at times of crisis or recession.

    But I think it's an aggravating factor and comes into play if (1) and (3) are in force.

    Like now.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    I wonder if HYUFD is going to come online again before he gets his software update?

    The old software seems to have crashed.

    Vicar of Bray awaiting new instructions . . . via parchment attached to cleft stick?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,784
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can the PM really call a GE by himself without the approval of his party?

    We do have a wacky constitution

    Yup.
    Even if his entire Cabinet says, Nah, do one??

    Incredible
    Yup, this part of our constitution is based on a letter to The Times in 1950.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
    1) if the existing Parliament is still "vital, viable, and capable of doing its job",
    2) if a general election would be "detrimental to the national economy", and
    3) if the Sovereign could "rely on finding another prime minister who could govern for a reasonable period with a working majority in the House of Commons".

    point 2 is supposedly irrelevant now but surely points 1 and 3 hold - it would just require the Tory Party to hold a coronation rather than an election...
    Only in the UK could part of our (unwritten) constitution be based on a letter to the Times in 1950 :)
    Why am I slightly proud of this?

    I am what holds this country back
    You would be if you were ever here.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,799
    Leon said:

    eek said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can the PM really call a GE by himself without the approval of his party?

    We do have a wacky constitution

    Yup.
    Even if his entire Cabinet says, Nah, do one??

    Incredible
    Yup, this part of our constitution is based on a letter to The Times in 1950.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
    1) if the existing Parliament is still "vital, viable, and capable of doing its job",
    2) if a general election would be "detrimental to the national economy", and
    3) if the Sovereign could "rely on finding another prime minister who could govern for a reasonable period with a working majority in the House of Commons".

    point 2 is supposedly irrelevant now but surely points 1 and 3 hold - it would just require the Tory Party to hold a coronation rather than an election...
    Only in the UK could part of our (unwritten) constitution be based on a letter to the Times in 1950 :)
    Why am I slightly proud of this?

    I am what holds this country back
    Where do you stand on Morris Dancer's refusal to use the quote function?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    The thing is:

    We didn't need a general election in 2017. The Queen agreed to it. Prime ministers will often seek a dissolution after 4 years of sitting. What is her justification for refusing?

    2017 was under the terms of FTPA and supported by the Commons
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431

    Come on Boris, just for the bants, fire those Cabinet Ministers in grey suits and replace them with Carrie Johnson, Lord Lebedev, Dilyn the dog, Stanley Johnson, the Russian violinist, the Canadian hairdresser, and Darius Guppy.

    You forgotten Jennifer Whatshername
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING The 1922 committee executive has met and decided not to change the rules to allow a second no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
    Instead 1922 executive elections will be held on Monday 2pm to 4pm.
    All 18 places on the executive will be up for grabs. Proxy votes allowed.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1544715690237726723


    BoZo won't resign, and they can't make him...

    Well well, that is a development.
    The Men in Grey Suits think they can get his resignation.....
    Meh - lets assume a stack of them say "we quit if you don't" and then do so. He will send out Rees-Mogg and Dorries and Clarke to say how wonderful he is. And appoint David Duguid and Matt Vickers to Cabinet.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    I wonder if HYUFD is going to come online again before he gets his software update?

    The old software seems to have crashed.

    Vicar of Bray awaiting new instructions . . . via parchment attached to cleft stick?
    No, that's only for the Empire. You need a franked sheet of paper from your friendly MP.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Feels like we are missing one major element of a proper Westminster drama: a flight tracker.

    While all of this is going on, Liz Truss is currently cruising at 35,000ft above the Persian Gulf on her way to a G20 meeting in Indonesia.

    https://www.flightradar24.com/KRH645/2c87f8c8 https://twitter.com/Tony_Diver/status/1544717781022679040/photo/1
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    The thing is:

    We didn't need a general election in 2017. The Queen agreed to it. Prime ministers will often seek a dissolution after 4 years of sitting. What is her justification for refusing?

    I think HMQ would grant a dissolution if Boris asked for it. Since Churchill has she ever gone against the wishes of her Prime Minister?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,652

    The thing is:

    We didn't need a general election in 2017. The Queen agreed to it. Prime ministers will often seek a dissolution after 4 years of sitting. What is her justification for refusing?

    In 2017 there was a law that required Parliament to show its strong support for an election in advance. Not now.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 888
    IIRC, Japanese PM Taro Aso called the 2009 Japan GE before the LDP could oust him as party leader, but that didn't end well for the LDP:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_Japanese_general_election
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,267
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Conservative MP tells me 1922 committee decided not to change the leadership rules immediately because they believe he’ll be gone within hours…
    https://twitter.com/cathynewman/status/1544718099294916610



    Have they met him..?

    Also they are playing straight - just changing the rules on the fly could lead to accusations of fiddling the system.

    An executive committee elected to change the rules answers that.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    I think we should.base the constitution on letters to Viz, Daily Star, Express and Hexham Courant.
    We could randomly draw one for advice at times of constitutional crisis.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited July 2022
    Leon said:

    Speaking as someone not averse to a bit of personal storification, I wonder if Boris has one eye on that memoir advance

    The more spectacularly chaotic and bizarre he makes his departure, the more publishers will clamour to buy his tell-all autobiography - and the more they will pay

    This week will make the perfect ending - to volume one

    Why would anyone part with good money to read it, you wouldn't be able to believe a word in it. If he does do one I hope bookshops have the decency to put it in the fiction section.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022

    Come on Boris, just for the bants, fire those Cabinet Ministers in grey suits and replace them with Carrie Johnson, Lord Lebedev, Dilyn the dog, Stanley Johnson, the Russian violinist, the Canadian hairdresser, and Darius Guppy.

    You forgotten Jennifer Whatshername
    Arise, Baroness Arcuri of Ride-em-cowboy (Countess of Westward Ho!)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING The 1922 committee executive has met and decided not to change the rules to allow a second no confidence vote in Boris Johnson.
    Instead 1922 executive elections will be held on Monday 2pm to 4pm.
    All 18 places on the executive will be up for grabs. Proxy votes allowed.

    https://twitter.com/christopherhope/status/1544715690237726723


    BoZo won't resign, and they can't make him...

    Problem with stories like this is that we are getting 2 opposite decisions from different reporters.

    The sane thing is for the current 1922 committee to ensure they have enough letters that they perform the deed as their last act...
    I suspect Old Lady has received cabinet assurances of defenestration so they dont change rules and store up future trouble for a more worthy leader
    Does anyone really think, that Boris Johnson would NOT stoop to bullying a 96-year old great-granny?

    I mean, he practically wiped his fat, foul you-know-what on the Queen's tablecloth the eve of her husband's funeral.

  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Come on Boris, just for the bants, fire those Cabinet Ministers in grey suits and replace them with Carrie Johnson, Lord Lebedev, Dilyn the dog, Stanley Johnson, the Russian violinist, the Canadian hairdresser, and Darius Guppy.

    There’s a reason he’s been breeding millions of children…..

    The cabinet table would look like a field of dandelions.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Come on Boris, just for the bants, fire those Cabinet Ministers in grey suits and replace them with Carrie Johnson, Lord Lebedev, Dilyn the dog, Stanley Johnson, the Russian violinist, the Canadian hairdresser, and Darius Guppy.

    You forgotten Jennifer Whatshername
    Arise, Baroness Arcuri of Ride-em-cowboy (Countess of Westward Ho!)
    Old cowpoke lingo "rode hard, put away wet" springs to, ahem, mind.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Come on Boris, just for the bants, fire those Cabinet Ministers in grey suits and replace them with Carrie Johnson, Lord Lebedev, Dilyn the dog, Stanley Johnson, the Russian violinist, the Canadian hairdresser, and Darius Guppy.

    You forgotten Jennifer Whatshername
    Arise, Baroness Arcuri of Ride-em-cowboy (Countess of Westward Ho!)
    Minister for chubby American chancers
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    dixiedean said:

    I think we should.base the constitution on letters to Viz, Daily Star, Express and Hexham Courant.
    We could randomly draw one for advice at times of constitutional crisis.

    Well, Mr Johnson knows all about the Sibylline Books, being a classicist, or so I presume.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    OllyT said:

    Leon said:

    Speaking as someone not averse to a bit of personal storification, I wonder if Boris has one eye on that memoir advance

    The more spectacularly chaotic and bizarre he makes his departure, the more publishers will clamour to buy his tell-all autobiography - and the more they will pay

    This week will make the perfect ending - to volume one

    Why would anyone part with good money to read it, it will just be one lie after another. You wouldn't be able to believe a word he says. If he does do one I hope booksellers have the good grace to put it in the fiction section.
    Whether fact or fiction, Boris is hopeless at long-form anyway. As far as I can tell his greater “works” are pretty much unreadable.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    The thing is:

    We didn't need a general election in 2017. The Queen agreed to it. Prime ministers will often seek a dissolution after 4 years of sitting. What is her justification for refusing?

    We had the Fixed Term Parliaments Act in 2017, so it was Parliament that voted for an early election and it wasn't up to the Queen.
  • If ever there was a case for a written constitution then Boris Johnson has made it through his complete disregard for convention

    If ever there's a case for an unwritten constitution then Boris Johnson being removed within 24 hours, despite the written rules saying he was safe, shows precisely why it is worth keeping. 👍
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    Henry Hill is the editor of Con Home?
    Wasn't he the wiseguy Goodfellas was based on?
    Speaking darkly about loyalty.
  • DM_AndyDM_Andy Posts: 1,127
    If Boris is still leader of the Conservative Party and the Conservative Party hold the majority of seats in the House of Commons then by definition Boris commands the majority of the House. He's not having difficulty getting legislation through the Commons so his government is still functioning. Can the Queen really get involved in the morass of Conservative Party internal politics by doing the PCP's dirty work for them?
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Can the PM really call a GE by himself without the approval of his party?

    We do have a wacky constitution

    Yup.
    Even if his entire Cabinet says, Nah, do one??

    Incredible
    Yup, this part of our constitution is based on a letter to The Times in 1950.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lascelles_Principles
    In these circumstances the Queen takes the advice of her Privy Council - which is effectively the Cabinet. Johnson has already lost most of them. Besides, as you keep pointing out the last time they tried something like this over prorogation it was declared illegal. She enabled an illegal act perpetrated by Johnson. Do you not think she will have looked at that and thought never again?
    I do not think she is that bothered, but we will know soon enough.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Does his mean Amazon can start offering pre-orders on his Shakespeare book?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Boris Johnson staying in Parliament and refusing to go home to Number 10 and face his mutinous cabinet, channelling the energy of a wayward teen refusing to go home to his seething parents after stealing their car
    https://twitter.com/juliamacfarlane/status/1544720613385932801
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    OK, so correct me if I am wrong, but the Sovereign asks the PM whether he/she or anyone else can form a majority. The Tory Party would *simply* need to coalesce around a unity candidate who could. None of them will want a GE.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    dixiedean said:

    I think we should.base the constitution on letters to Viz, Daily Star, Express and Hexham Courant.
    We could randomly draw one for advice at times of constitutional crisis.

    If we based our entire system of government on Viz Top Tips the country would be improved beyond recognition.
    Complete with Brady on the next page.
This discussion has been closed.