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Bad news for people laying a 2022 general election? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    If there's a general election at which Party A wins a comfortable majority for a five year term of office, and five weeks later the opposition is miles ahead in the opinion polls, we don't say the election result is illegitimate and there should have to be another election.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    BoZo is claiming a personal electoral mandate he doesn't possess

    Trump...
    "Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power"

    In some senses, no, he's not. He was appointed PM by Queenie and he remains so unless she decides otherwise or he cannot command the House.

    The trouble is every PM before him as had some self respect and so when 90% of their Cabinet and MPs tell them to fuck off they think 'Oh that means I don't command the House anymore'.

    But not this clown.

    He really, really thinks something will turn up.

    Micawberism in politics.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Andy_JS said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    This is starting to border on the pathological. Fight? Fight for what? What do Boris and his supporters think is going to happen.

    His point of view would be that he's standing up for the principle that he won a fair vote very recently and shouldn't be forced out without another one.
    But you don't think he should be allowed to face another one, 'rules' and all that.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,531
    edited July 2022

    Is Geoff Cox still an MP?

    He'd be a fun interim PM

    He has the voice for it. Gorgeous voice. I would sit and listen to press conferences just for that. No other reason though :smile:
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    The Sir Beer Korma vonc is not as outlandish an idea as it might seem. All he has to do is share a platform with Sir Graham Brady Old Lady and pledge publicly that he would not seek an election and is doing it with Brady’s approval for the good of the nation.

    Granted, it would be a bit - er - weird. But, you know, nothing much really surprises anymore.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    SNP MP John Nicolson is very articulate.

    A pity Labour are so short on articulate MPs
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    edited July 2022
    Scott_xP said:

    No10 say tonight that Boris Johnson won’t go. They deny cabinet ministers called for him to go tonight — but a number of cabinet ministers confirm that’s what happened. No10 say the PM has “called their bluff.”
    https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1544765904570957825

    On any normal form book Boris is already out. He isn't. And reports already say No 10 is starting the fightback. It seems to me that while he is probably out, I wouldn't put the chance of getting him out of No 10 in the next few weeks as more than 95% or 1/20.

    Reasons:
    1) Tory MPs are so useless that they muffed the one chance they has a month ago to despatch him in a bloodless coup, even though they knew it was fatal to so fail.
    2) They have given him a week's grace before the next attempt at changing the rules and voting. For Boris a week is a very long time to recover. He has done it before.
    3) Most important: despite huffing and puffing the cabinet is still in place. They could have resigned en masse and have not
    4) There are derisory levels of support for any future leader who isn't tainted
    5) They don't want an election. There is no 100% chance that Boris could not manage to have one (Lascelles and all that).
    6) The one sure fire principled way of reliably getting rid of him would be to join Labour in a VONC. This would of course put principle ahead of self interest. It won't happen.

    Boris therefore not quite finished; he has a tiny chance.




  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,836
    England women should really be winning this by more than 1.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,018
    The heads of UK and US security services have made an unprecedented joint appearance to warn of the threat from China.

    FBI director Christopher Wray said China was the "biggest long-term threat to our economic and national security" and had interfered in politics, including recent elections.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 1,589
    This is coming to resemble the journey of the Russian Second Pacific Squadron. We're just about at the "religious apocalypsism" phase.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,658
    Andy_JS said:


    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    2m
    This is starting to border on the pathological. Fight? Fight for what? What do Boris and his supporters think is going to happen.

    His point of view would be that he's standing up for the principle that he won a fair vote very recently and shouldn't be forced out without another one.
    Didn't work for May though, at Johnsons hands...

    She too passed her confidence vote and went within months under the threat of a 1922 rule change. Sauce for the goose is sauce for the gander.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kjh said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Right on cue, some brave individual on the BBC misunderstands a political leader is an annointed king.

    An unnamed MP close to Boris Johnson tonight described some of his critics as “treacherous”.

    They are, a load of wet, treacherous, pygmies.

    Exactly the same type of MPs who toppled Thatcher, another great election winner, leading to years of bitter division in the party and ultimately over a decade in opposition
    Given that this seems to describe the almost the entire parliamentary party, are we to assume you have now transferred your loyalty to Il Duce?
    It doesn't, just the traitors. The membership will ensure the traitors do not get rewarded if Boris is removed by ensuring they do not get the leadership
    Hopefully the membership is not quite as loony as you. Even within the modern “Conservative” party, I suspect you are an outlier.
    I don't like the bullying of @HYUFD

    Yes, he's eccentric, dogmatic and pedantic and always has to have the last word but we know he will transfer his loyalty 100% the instant a new Conservative leader and PM takes office, so why badger him?
    Because he holds views which are deeply offensive - more I would suggest than almost anyone else on here - and he invites scorn with his statements of absolute certainty which almost inevitably turn out to be rubbish. It is not bullying to point out his idiocy just as others point out mine and yours.
    I take issue with that. I disagree with him about many things but his views are not offensive. I don't think the views of anyone on here are 'offensive', not even Sandy Rentool's cheerful wish for the elimination of all humanity. You may be offended by his views, but that is different (though I don'tsee why you would be, he may be not be the board's cheeriest poster but he is seldom rude despite a lot of provocation). And more often than not his views about what goes on within the Conservative Party are pretty well informed.
    Well I have to say if you don't think that supporting the Spanish police beating up grannies because the want to vote and advocating doing the same thing to citizens in this country is offensive then I think your moral compass is somewhat skewed.

    His attitude of 'party before country' is also offensive.

    As I have said before I would not see him leave; he has an absolute right to say what he wants. But I and others have an absolute right to call him out for it and treat both him and his views with the disdain they deserve.
    These views are not "offensive" though. They are "wrong". Or, more accurately, "I disagree with them".
    No. Supporting the beating of people for wanting to vote and advocating it for our country is offensive. Far more offensive than the rude words you seem to object to on here.
    I can see both sides of this argument but I must admit I do personally find some of his post offensive, although I might be considered a bit of a wimp. To name a few: His views on the average intelligence of Africans, willingness to nuke Argentina, believing Russia is a democracy. The list goes on.

    Uppity, still-free Ukraine says hello!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Increasingly clear Boris Johnson will not go tonight. Or even tomorrow. Looks like the new 1922 committee will change the rules and there will be another confidence vote next week. Which Mr Johnson will lose. Lose badly. Then it will be over. Cue summer leadership contest.
    https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1544764306201493507

    How does he think that setting himself up for such a humiliation helps himself, his party or the country
    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    BoZo is claiming a personal electoral mandate he doesn't possess

    Trump...
    If Boris loses a VONC and leaves number 10 but then leads a march on the commons with 50,000 amped-up Brexiteers all hoping to hang Michael Gove from the London Eye then there will be a justifiable comparison

    10,000. Needs to be pro rata for population.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,607

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    BoZo is claiming a personal electoral mandate he doesn't possess

    Trump...
    "Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power"

    In some senses, no, he's not. He was appointed PM by Queenie and he remains so unless she decides otherwise or he cannot command the House.

    The trouble is every PM before him as had some self respect and so when 90% of their Cabinet and MPs tell them to fuck off they think 'Oh that means I don't command the House anymore'.

    But not this clown.

    He really, really thinks something will turn up.

    Its fascinating that he's unwilling to spend 1% of the effort to do things properly in the first place that he does because of the resulting mess.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited July 2022
    Snap election in the offing according to this:

    "Johnson reportedly refusing to resign, suggesting his departure might be followed by early election and Tory defeat
    Boris Johnson is determined not to resign, ITV’s Anushka Asthana reports."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/06/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-sajid-javid-resignations-uk-politics-live-latest
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    IanB2 said:

    Therese Coffey is starting to look like a right numpty, isn’t she?

    Starting?
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 3,078
    HYUFD said:

    kjh said:

    Cookie said:

    Cookie said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    kle4 said:

    Right on cue, some brave individual on the BBC misunderstands a political leader is an annointed king.

    An unnamed MP close to Boris Johnson tonight described some of his critics as “treacherous”.

    They are, a load of wet, treacherous, pygmies.

    Exactly the same type of MPs who toppled Thatcher, another great election winner, leading to years of bitter division in the party and ultimately over a decade in opposition
    Given that this seems to describe the almost the entire parliamentary party, are we to assume you have now transferred your loyalty to Il Duce?
    It doesn't, just the traitors. The membership will ensure the traitors do not get rewarded if Boris is removed by ensuring they do not get the leadership
    Hopefully the membership is not quite as loony as you. Even within the modern “Conservative” party, I suspect you are an outlier.
    I don't like the bullying of @HYUFD

    Yes, he's eccentric, dogmatic and pedantic and always has to have the last word but we know he will transfer his loyalty 100% the instant a new Conservative leader and PM takes office, so why badger him?
    Because he holds views which are deeply offensive - more I would suggest than almost anyone else on here - and he invites scorn with his statements of absolute certainty which almost inevitably turn out to be rubbish. It is not bullying to point out his idiocy just as others point out mine and yours.
    I take issue with that. I disagree with him about many things but his views are not offensive. I don't think the views of anyone on here are 'offensive', not even Sandy Rentool's cheerful wish for the elimination of all humanity. You may be offended by his views, but that is different (though I don'tsee why you would be, he may be not be the board's cheeriest poster but he is seldom rude despite a lot of provocation). And more often than not his views about what goes on within the Conservative Party are pretty well informed.
    Well I have to say if you don't think that supporting the Spanish police beating up grannies because the want to vote and advocating doing the same thing to citizens in this country is offensive then I think your moral compass is somewhat skewed.

    His attitude of 'party before country' is also offensive.

    As I have said before I would not see him leave; he has an absolute right to say what he wants. But I and others have an absolute right to call him out for it and treat both him and his views with the disdain they deserve.
    These views are not "offensive" though. They are "wrong". Or, more accurately, "I disagree with them".
    No. Supporting the beating of people for wanting to vote and advocating it for our country is offensive. Far more offensive than the rude words you seem to object to on here.
    I can see both sides of this argument but I must admit I do personally find some of his post offensive, although I might be considered a bit of a wimp. To name a few: His views on the average intelligence of Africans, willingness to nuke Argentina, believing Russia is a democracy. The list goes on.

    IQ of nations tests are factual and undeniable. Nukes are there as a last resort to defend British territory, irrespective of the merits of using them or not Argentina invaded the Falklands, British territory. Russia has presidential and parliamentary elections, it may not be a perfect democracy but it is a democracy.

    I am entitled to my views as long as they are legal and will continue to make them with generally less abuse than is directed at me
    Russia is unquestionably NOT a democracy. It is a completely authoritarian government which manipulates "elections" through control of the media and a subserviant Judiciary. Any threat to the government is crushed with threats, violence and even murder. It is one of the least free countries on the planet, it is ranked lower than for civil rights than Cambodia, Ethiopia and Angola.

    https://freedomhouse.org/country/russia/freedom-world/2022

    Even if you are distracted by the slo-mo defenestration of BJ, the fact that you can- straight faced- claim such utter bilge is actually contemptable. Please retract.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,900
    biggles said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@BorisJohnson's dragged-out departure confirms him as Britain's Trump.

    As the PM clings on, tonight's #WaughOnPolitics is in your inbox

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnsons-dragged-out-departure-confirms-him-as-britains-trump-1727923

    Trump literally attempted a coup

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    There is an almighty difference
    Yes. I think Boris is a mendacious, slovenly, embarrassing clown. But Trump he is not. The comparisons are fatuous.
    Agree with everyone saying this. The Trump comparison is silly, and largely based on build and hair colour.
    And their contempt for the truth, decency and constitutional norms.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    biggles said:

    Gove is still very quiet. He’s the type to come out with an opinion piece in the Telegraph or Sun tomorrow to steal a march on his rivals.

    Gove's coming out?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    biggles said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@BorisJohnson's dragged-out departure confirms him as Britain's Trump.

    As the PM clings on, tonight's #WaughOnPolitics is in your inbox

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnsons-dragged-out-departure-confirms-him-as-britains-trump-1727923

    Trump literally attempted a coup

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    There is an almighty difference
    Quite right. He's more like like budget Trump or PG rated Trump. And his party haven't all had the MAGA brain rot virus so they want him gone.
    I like “PG Trump”.
    Chimps' tea party?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,394
    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Therese Coffey is starting to look like a right numpty, isn’t she?

    Starting?
    Congratulations, you are the third person to make that joke.

    While it's not untrue, it's getting tedious. How about 'finishing'?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720
    Surely no one who is left in this Cabinet can possibly lead the Tories?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Scott_xP said:

    As the PM tells ministers only he can defeat Labour, is there a method in this latest bout of madness.
    'Trump’s own betrayal narrative is fuelling a comeback..
    Johnson will certainly have a core of ardent loyalists who say, like Thatcher, he was never defeated at the ballot box'

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1544769104288038918


    He still thinks the voters love him. Has he seen a poll?

    6% behind in the polling average isn't a terrible state of affairs by any means.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    Scott_xP said:

    As the PM tells ministers only he can defeat Labour, is there a method in this latest bout of madness.
    'Trump’s own betrayal narrative is fuelling a comeback..
    Johnson will certainly have a core of ardent loyalists who say, like Thatcher, he was never defeated at the ballot box'

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1544769104288038918


    He still thinks the voters love him. Has he seen a poll?

    6% behind in the polling average isn't a terrible state of affairs by any means.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    I’m seeing SNP MPs being interviewed, but not being asked about Grady.

    Have you not seen the reports re the Met dropping the matter?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Scott_xP said:

    As the PM tells ministers only he can defeat Labour, is there a method in this latest bout of madness.
    'Trump’s own betrayal narrative is fuelling a comeback..
    Johnson will certainly have a core of ardent loyalists who say, like Thatcher, he was never defeated at the ballot box'

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1544769104288038918


    He still thinks the voters love him. Has he seen a poll?

    39-33 or whatever it is now is not exactly landslide Labour.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    We’re starting to get into constitutional crisis territory. When Boris became Prime Minister he told the Queen he could form a government. Tonight he can’t form a government. He literally can’t fill the positions in the various departments. It’s insane.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1544771301914673153
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,945
    edited July 2022
    OnboardG1 said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@BorisJohnson's dragged-out departure confirms him as Britain's Trump.

    As the PM clings on, tonight's #WaughOnPolitics is in your inbox

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnsons-dragged-out-departure-confirms-him-as-britains-trump-1727923

    Trump literally attempted a coup

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    There is an almighty difference
    Quite right. He's more like like budget Trump or PG rated Trump. And his party haven't all had the MAGA brain rot virus so they want him gone.
    Boris won the popular vote in 2019 unlike Trump even in 2016 as well as a majority.

    Despite defeat in 2020 Trump now leading Biden in a few polls
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    kle4 said:

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@BorisJohnson's dragged-out departure confirms him as Britain's Trump.

    As the PM clings on, tonight's #WaughOnPolitics is in your inbox

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnsons-dragged-out-departure-confirms-him-as-britains-trump-1727923

    Trump literally attempted a coup

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    There is an almighty difference
    Yes. I think Boris is a mendacious, slovenly, embarrassing clown. But Trump he is not. The comparisons are fatuous.
    There are physical and superficial similarites, to be sure. But being stubborn and making people go through the frustrating but proper process to remove you rather than be dignified about it, is not similar in type to using legal tricks and inciting mobs to seek to remain in office after losing re-election. It just is not.

    Too early to tell just how far Boris Johnson will go, isn't it?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Is Geoff Cox still an MP?

    He'd be a fun interim PM

    Cabinet meetings by Teams from the Caribbean.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited July 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Snap election in the offing according to this:

    "Johnson reportedly refusing to resign, suggesting his departure might be followed by early election and Tory defeat
    Boris Johnson is determined not to resign, ITV’s Anushka Asthana reports."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/06/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-sajid-javid-resignations-uk-politics-live-latest

    Why would his departure lead to an early.election?
    Does he just assert any old crap now?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,531
    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    No10 say tonight that Boris Johnson won’t go. They deny cabinet ministers called for him to go tonight — but a number of cabinet ministers confirm that’s what happened. No10 say the PM has “called their bluff.”
    https://twitter.com/ionewells/status/1544765904570957825

    On any normal form book Boris is already out. He isn't. And reports already say No 10 is starting the fightback. It seems to me that while he is probably out, I wouldn't put the chance of getting him out of No 10 in the next few weeks as more than 95% or 1/20.

    Reasons:
    1) Tory MPs are so useless that they muffed the one chance they has a month ago to despatch him in a bloodless coup, even though they knew it was fatal to so fail.
    2) They have given him a week's grace before the next attempt at changing the rules and voting. For Boris a week is a very long time to recover. He has done it before.
    3) Most important: despite huffing and puffing the cabinet is still in place. They could have resigned en masse and have not
    4) There are derisory levels of support for any future leader who isn't tainted
    5) They don't want an election. There is no 100% chance that Boris could not manage to have one (Lascelles and all that).
    6) The one sure fire principled way of reliably getting rid of him would be to join Labour in a VONC. This would of course put principle ahead of self interest. It won't happen.

    Boris therefore not quite finished; he has a tiny chance.




    As I described earlier, self interest is best served by supporting a VONC in Parliament. They are in greater danger of Johnson attempting to call a GE to thwart them removing him as party leader than they are from a VONC which will simply get rid of the current cabinet and allow them to put a new one oi place.

    Mind you, for the same reasons, Starmer won't call for a VONC I think.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    If the Cabinet, or most of it, doesn't resign tonight then it's going to get really messy.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720
    Scott_xP said:

    We’re starting to get into constitutional crisis territory. When Boris became Prime Minister he told the Queen he could form a government. Tonight he can’t form a government. He literally can’t fill the positions in the various departments. It’s insane.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1544771301914673153

    As I posted earlier kids.

    Crisis time.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Extraordinary

    Nadhim Zahawi today told Boris Johnson he should resign

    Tomorrow he's agreed to launch a new economic plan alongside Boris Johnson in a bid to shore up his leadership according to @SkyNews

    Today is bewildering by any metric

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1544771793797484546
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    ydoethur said:

    Scott_xP said:

    I understand tentative discussions are underway among members of Boris Johnson’s innermost circle about when they should tell him his premiership is at an end. Acting carefully bc it will be seen as a “ravens leaving the tower” moment
    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1544762540151947265

    Alternatively, can't we just put him in the Tower WITH the ravens?

    Your Maj?
    Why? Don't you like ravens?
    Particularly cruel. THey are intelligent and very personally characterful birds.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,930
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Snap election in the offing according to this:

    "Johnson reportedly refusing to resign, suggesting his departure might be followed by early election and Tory defeat
    Boris Johnson is determined not to resign, ITV’s Anushka Asthana reports."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/06/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-sajid-javid-resignations-uk-politics-live-latest

    Why would his departure lead to an early.election?
    Does he just assert any old crap now?
    It won't. There won't be an early election, no chance.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434

    This is so bad that I think various newspapers will be pitching for articles from Vernon Bogdanor tonight .

    Nothing's that bad.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    BoZo is claiming a personal electoral mandate he doesn't possess

    Trump...
    "Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power"

    In some senses, no, he's not. He was appointed PM by Queenie and he remains so unless she decides otherwise or he cannot command the House.

    The trouble is every PM before him as had some self respect and so when 90% of their Cabinet and MPs tell them to fuck off they think 'Oh that means I don't command the House anymore'.

    But not this clown.

    He really, really thinks something will turn up.

    Agree. The fault lies in this sense not with Boris, who has a mandate, but his party who failed to get rid of him under their own rules.

    In constitutional terms the way to despatch him is a VONC in parliament, which requires principle.

    Tory MPs want an outcome without taking responsibility for it

  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    And there was me thinking that they might have removed him for being an (alleged) paedo...

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-62068017
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,061
    Johnson to make senior cabinet appointments tonight and joint presentation on the economy with Zahawi tomorrow

    Zahawi career is over and he will go down with Johnson
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    Weirdly, since I detest the man, I kind of admire Johnson’s bloody-minded determination to hold on until the end.

    The Cabinet are beneath contempt.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720
    Scott_xP said:

    Extraordinary

    Nadhim Zahawi today told Boris Johnson he should resign

    Tomorrow he's agreed to launch a new economic plan alongside Boris Johnson in a bid to shore up his leadership according to @SkyNews

    Today is bewildering by any metric

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1544771793797484546

    None of these people should be allowed near public office ever again.

    I beginning to think a snap GE would be the right response from Queenie.

    Fuck it - let the people kick these scumbags out properly.

  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Snap election in the offing according to this:

    "Johnson reportedly refusing to resign, suggesting his departure might be followed by early election and Tory defeat
    Boris Johnson is determined not to resign, ITV’s Anushka Asthana reports."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/06/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-sajid-javid-resignations-uk-politics-live-latest

    Why would his departure lead to an early.election?
    Does he just assert any old crap now?
    Maybe Johnson loyalists would refuse to support the new leader and vote with the opposition for an election. It would only take about 35 such MPs to make it happen.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786
    ydoethur said:

    kjh said:

    IanB2 said:

    Therese Coffey is starting to look like a right numpty, isn’t she?

    Starting?
    Congratulations, you are the third person to make that joke.

    While it's not untrue, it's getting tedious. How about 'finishing'?
    Great minds.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    BoZo is claiming a personal electoral mandate he doesn't possess

    Trump...
    "Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power"

    In some senses, no, he's not. He was appointed PM by Queenie and he remains so unless she decides otherwise or he cannot command the House.

    The trouble is every PM before him as had some self respect and so when 90% of their Cabinet and MPs tell them to fuck off they think 'Oh that means I don't command the House anymore'.

    But not this clown.

    He really, really thinks something will turn up.

    Agree. The fault lies in this sense not with Boris, who has a mandate, but his party who failed to get rid of him under their own rules.

    In constitutional terms the way to despatch him is a VONC in parliament, which requires principle.

    Tory MPs want an outcome without taking responsibility for it

    Yes, if they want him out so badly, vote on a VONC. They won't because they know that would end pretty much any chance of any advancement in their career.

    I don't blame BJ at all. He is useless but he actually has a point.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@BorisJohnson's dragged-out departure confirms him as Britain's Trump.

    As the PM clings on, tonight's #WaughOnPolitics is in your inbox

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnsons-dragged-out-departure-confirms-him-as-britains-trump-1727923

    Trump literally attempted a coup

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    There is an almighty difference
    No he didn't.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Off the news for 90 minutes and just catching up. Oh dear.

    So Petronella Wyatt was right. She says he is bereft of humility and will never resign.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10988473/Boris-Johnsons-ex-girlfriend-Petronella-Wyatt-says-PM-bereft-humility-NEVER-resign.html

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720
    John McTernan thinks Johnson will use peers to fill all the holes in his government.

    Not sure whether he is joking or not.

  • pm215pm215 Posts: 1,134
    dixiedean said:

    Why would his departure lead to an early.election?
    Does he just assert any old crap now?

    "now" ?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,531
    Andy_JS said:

    dixiedean said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Snap election in the offing according to this:

    "Johnson reportedly refusing to resign, suggesting his departure might be followed by early election and Tory defeat
    Boris Johnson is determined not to resign, ITV’s Anushka Asthana reports."

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/jul/06/boris-johnson-rishi-sunak-sajid-javid-resignations-uk-politics-live-latest

    Why would his departure lead to an early.election?
    Does he just assert any old crap now?
    Maybe Johnson loyalists would refuse to support the new leader and vote with the opposition for an election. It would only take about 35 such MPs to make it happen.
    Turkeys voting for Christmas?

    I don't think so.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    Scott_xP said:

    We’re starting to get into constitutional crisis territory. When Boris became Prime Minister he told the Queen he could form a government. Tonight he can’t form a government. He literally can’t fill the positions in the various departments. It’s insane.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1544771301914673153

    As I posted earlier kids.

    Crisis time.
    You know it is getting to something when Scott posts tweets from Dan Hodges.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,831
    Stanley Johnson will be appearing on GB News.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Johnson to make senior cabinet appointments tonight and joint presentation on the economy with Zahawi tomorrow

    Zahawi career is over and he will go down with Johnson

    So tomorrow they basically throw open the wallet and make their pitch to stay in place to deliver massive help to ease the cost of living crisis, then dare the rest of the Tory party to no confidence Boris and put all that cash-splashing in jeopardy. Is that the gameplan?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Politics is still accelerating, isn't it? It's been getting faster and faster over the last decade, and it now feels like we fit a year's events into a week.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    Johnson to make senior cabinet appointments tonight and joint presentation on the economy with Zahawi tomorrow

    Zahawi career is over and he will go down with Johnson

    The Zahawi decision looks like an epic piece of bad judgement. Unless of course Boris recovers. For which he has been given a few days grace by the 1922.

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,072
    .
    Andy_JS said:

    kjh said:

    He is not going of his own accord is he? @HYUFD has got this 100% right.

    Why should he go? He won a confidence vote a few weeks ago, and the rules say no more such votes for 12 months. Those calling for him to go are being disrespectful of the rules.
    This is pretty basic stuff.
    - because the position of PM depends entirely on being able to command a majority in the Commons. And it is obvious to the meanest intelligence that he no longer does so.

    'The rules' are internal party ones which can be changed overnight - and if Johnson continues to deny the blindingly obvious, then that will be done by the newly elected committee.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    edited July 2022
    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    BoZo is claiming a personal electoral mandate he doesn't possessed

    Trump...
    "Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power"

    In some senses, no, he's not. He was appointed PM by Queenie and he remains so unless she decides otherwise or he cannot command the House.

    The trouble is every PM before him as had some self respect and so when 90% of their Cabinet and MPs tell them to fuck off they think 'Oh that means I don't command the House anymore'.

    But not this clown.

    He really, really thinks something will turn up.

    Agree. The fault lies in this sense not with Boris, who has a mandate, but his party who failed to get rid of him under their own rules.

    In constitutional terms the way to despatch him is a VONC in parliament, which requires principle.

    Tory MPs want an outcome without taking responsibility for it

    And they've ballsed it up again today.
    The 1922 didn't change the rules, believing he'd be gone tonight.
    Quite what led them to that conclusion is another matter.
    Such innocence.
    Monday is a long way away. There'll be tax cuts and handouts tomorrow.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    kjh said:

    He is not going of his own accord is he? @HYUFD has got this 100% right.

    Why should he go? He won a confidence vote a few weeks ago, and the rules say no more such votes for 12 months. Those calling for him to go are being disrespectful of the rules.
    This is pretty basic stuff.
    - because the position of PM depends entirely on being able to command a majority in the Commons. And it is obvious to the meanest intelligence that he no longer does so.

    'The rules' are internal party ones which can be changed overnight - and if Johnson continues to deny the blindingly obvious, then that will be done by the newly elected committee.
    Then do a VONC and, if you want him out, vote for it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    So a bunch of cabinet ministers told Johnson to resign. He didn't. And they carry on as cabinet ministers.

    We're really stress-testing the informal guard rails around executive power in British democracy now.

    https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1544773053216874498
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Anyone else wondering if even if the 1922 change the rules and he loses he will fight it on legal grounds, saying that he won fair and square?
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    edited July 2022

    .

    I have ramped the early GE scenario. So lets think about how this works.

    Working backwards we know that the '22 have a new committee elected on Monday. Which is very likely to say "new rules" and trigger a vote for Tuesday or Wednesday next week.

    We also know the PM believes his mandate is from the people instead of from the MPs who vote confidence in him and from Her Majesty who appoints him on that basis.

    Reports have it that half a dozen or so senior cabinet ministers told him to go. So add them to the other 39 to date who quit. Not everyone has to be quickly replaced and there will still be some slavish sycophants wanting a ministerial limo.

    So, make Matt Vickers Secretary of State for Drinking and Parmos. Send him out to do his drunken thumbs up on the media. And tell the queen there must be a General Election called this weekend.

    Why this weekend? Because my mandate from the people is under threat and our democracy demands that we put the question back to them. Some debate. But the palace cannot concede as it opens the door to an almighty political and constitutional row.

    What happens if the PM is no longer a Tory candidate? And Starmer and Rayner receive FPNs and resign? Election called for no reason that is urgent or constitutional, no leader in either main party. So it won't happen. Which makes the PMs entire play a non-starter. He is - as I have said to some mocking - toast.

    I think the GE plan works best for Johnson if it comes after he's forced Tory MPs to vote against him in a Commons Vote of No Confidence.

    Unlike the internal Tory party vote that vote is public, so he would then remove the whip from the rebels and call an election with loyalists in place as candidates. With the whip withdrawn from enough Tory MPs there would no longer be a majority in the Commons, and so justification for a general election.

    The bit I'm not sure of is the party whip bit. Fairly certain this is a government job, and so on the gift of the PM, and he can remove the party whip, even after he's lost the party leadership confidence vote. But it would mean that you could possibly have a scenario where the PM removed the Conservative whip from the MP who replaced him as leader of the Conservative party, and I thought Conservative party rules prevented MPs without the whip standing for election as Conservative candidates. So the new leader of the Conservatives could be prevented from standing as an official Conservative Party candidate. But maybe I have missed something.
    Who decides whether an MP has the whip or not? Obviously the MP themselves, but assuming they want to be whipped [1] which Conservative decides that the MP is allowed to hold the whip? The Prime Minister/leader of that party or the Chief Whip (or someone else)?

    [1] Yes, yes, comedy etc. Stepmoms, pornhub, dockside hookers etc......
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022
    The banter heuristic demands something along the lines outlined by a poster above.

    Boris deselects the 300-odd rebels and leads the 60-strong Tory rump to an historic election victory.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Scott_xP said:

    We’re starting to get into constitutional crisis territory. When Boris became Prime Minister he told the Queen he could form a government. Tonight he can’t form a government. He literally can’t fill the positions in the various departments. It’s insane.
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1544771301914673153

    As I posted earlier kids.

    Crisis time.
    Call an election BigDog!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,635
    MrEd said:

    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    kjh said:

    He is not going of his own accord is he? @HYUFD has got this 100% right.

    Why should he go? He won a confidence vote a few weeks ago, and the rules say no more such votes for 12 months. Those calling for him to go are being disrespectful of the rules.
    This is pretty basic stuff.
    - because the position of PM depends entirely on being able to command a majority in the Commons. And it is obvious to the meanest intelligence that he no longer does so.

    'The rules' are internal party ones which can be changed overnight - and if Johnson continues to deny the blindingly obvious, then that will be done by the newly elected committee.
    Then do a VONC and, if you want him out, vote for it.
    Nah, Parliament should impeach him.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    What all this does is potentially put the Conservatives out of office for a generation. Boris won't care but there are some decent people in the party who are going to be broken by this.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,902

    Johnson to make senior cabinet appointments tonight and joint presentation on the economy with Zahawi tomorrow

    Zahawi career is over and he will go down with Johnson

    Will the cut in fuel duty be:
    a) 20p
    b) 40p
    c) 60p
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    Hey i know British politics is quite exciting now but an absolute bombshell hot mic moment has happened in American politics

    https://twitter.com/jackmjenkins/status/1544739459849125893?t=5gwaVGgM5tj7Gtq7Ql6J5A&s=19

    One nation, under God
    Don't!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720
    Heathener said:

    Off the news for 90 minutes and just catching up. Oh dear.

    So Petronella Wyatt was right. She says he is bereft of humility and will never resign.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10988473/Boris-Johnsons-ex-girlfriend-Petronella-Wyatt-says-PM-bereft-humility-NEVER-resign.html

    He will never resign.

    Only the Queen can now sack him.

    It is the final end game.

    Having lost the command of the House she will have no choice but to end this.

    The way that her majesty in her platinum year is about to be dragged into this should shame the Tory party for decades.

    It is an outrage that the party so-called most attached to our institutions of ancient ways of governing has been captured like this by a Cult of mad vandals and wreckers.

    Shame.



  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Lets be honest, its over for the Conservative Party. Sort out a new right option post haste
  • kjhkjh Posts: 11,786

    Leon said:

    Scott_xP said:

    .@BorisJohnson's dragged-out departure confirms him as Britain's Trump.

    As the PM clings on, tonight's #WaughOnPolitics is in your inbox

    https://inews.co.uk/opinion/boris-johnsons-dragged-out-departure-confirms-him-as-britains-trump-1727923

    Trump literally attempted a coup

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    There is an almighty difference
    No he didn't.
    Oh for god's sake do you really want to do this again today of all days.

    PS your wrong, Trump did attempt a coup :)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022

    Johnson to make senior cabinet appointments tonight and joint presentation on the economy with Zahawi tomorrow

    Zahawi career is over and he will go down with Johnson

    So tomorrow they basically throw open the wallet and make their pitch to stay in place to deliver massive help to ease the cost of living crisis, then dare the rest of the Tory party to no confidence Boris and put all that cash-splashing in jeopardy. Is that the gameplan?
    Yes.
    Boris is hoping to go over the heads of the parliamentary party to the court of public opinion.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084

    The banter heuristic demands something along the lines outlined by a poster above.

    Boris deselects the 300-odd rebels and leads the 60-strong Tory rump to an historic election victory.

    Could the party not remove the whip from him?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    The Sir Beer Korma vonc is not as outlandish an idea as it might seem. All he has to do is share a platform with Sir Graham Brady Old Lady and pledge publicly that he would not seek an election and is doing it with Brady’s approval for the good of the nation.

    Granted, it would be a bit - er - weird. But, you know, nothing much really surprises anymore.

    Why should the Labour party do anything as the Tory party tears itself apart.

  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    edited July 2022

    If the Cabinet, or most of it, doesn't resign tonight then it's going to get really messy.

    Trouble is, it’ll be messy as well if they do.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497

    This is so bad that I think various newspapers will be pitching for articles from Vernon Bogdanor tonight .

    Nothing's that bad.
    Any sightings of Lord Hennessy? I have been watching C4 news and he's mostly a BBC man.

    We need him to tell us about Lascelles and how there isn't a system for interim PMs.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839
    Heathener said:

    What all this does is potentially put the Conservatives out of office for a generation. Boris won't care but there are some decent people in the party who are going to be broken by this.

    They should have moved out long ago. Like Rory the ex-Tory.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839

    John McTernan thinks Johnson will use peers to fill all the holes in his government.

    Not sure whether he is joking or not.

    If he can find enough people to plug the holes then why not? If there aren't enough existing lords willing to take the jobs Johnson can always find random party donors and staffers from Tory HQ and ennoble them.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,275
    dixiedean said:

    algarkirk said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Leon said:

    Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power

    BoZo is claiming a personal electoral mandate he doesn't possessed

    Trump...
    "Boris is exploiting vague rules to stay in power"

    In some senses, no, he's not. He was appointed PM by Queenie and he remains so unless she decides otherwise or he cannot command the House.

    The trouble is every PM before him as had some self respect and so when 90% of their Cabinet and MPs tell them to fuck off they think 'Oh that means I don't command the House anymore'.

    But not this clown.

    He really, really thinks something will turn up.

    Agree. The fault lies in this sense not with Boris, who has a mandate, but his party who failed to get rid of him under their own rules.

    In constitutional terms the way to despatch him is a VONC in parliament, which requires principle.

    Tory MPs want an outcome without taking responsibility for it

    And they've ballsed it up again today.
    The 1922 didn't change the rules, believing he'd be gone tonight.
    Quite what led them to that conclusion is another matter.
    Such innocence.
    Monday is a long way away. There'll be tax cuts and handouts tomorrow.
    Agree the 1922 are useless and have now given the clown 5 days to concoct a plan to remain in office . They should have waited to see if he would resign before deciding on no rule change .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720

    The banter heuristic demands something along the lines outlined by a poster above.

    Boris deselects the 300-odd rebels and leads the 60-strong Tory rump to an historic election victory.

    Could be next step.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    Scott_xP said:

    Extraordinary

    Nadhim Zahawi today told Boris Johnson he should resign

    Tomorrow he's agreed to launch a new economic plan alongside Boris Johnson in a bid to shore up his leadership according to @SkyNews

    Today is bewildering by any metric

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1544771793797484546

    Just a total plonker. I can't keep up with his marching up and down the hill to save his own sorry hide. Not someone you could EVER trust to be PM.
  • Will Johnson's legacy be to prove the value of the Crown?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,447
    Andy_JS said:

    Scott_xP said:

    As the PM tells ministers only he can defeat Labour, is there a method in this latest bout of madness.
    'Trump’s own betrayal narrative is fuelling a comeback..
    Johnson will certainly have a core of ardent loyalists who say, like Thatcher, he was never defeated at the ballot box'

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1544769104288038918


    He still thinks the voters love him. Has he seen a poll?

    6% behind in the polling average isn't a terrible state of affairs by any means.
    You're much too intelligent to play the Krebs/Burgdorf final act in the bunker.

    Let him go. It's over.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    edited July 2022

    Johnson to make senior cabinet appointments tonight and joint presentation on the economy with Zahawi tomorrow

    Zahawi career is over and he will go down with Johnson

    Will the cut in fuel duty be:
    a) 20p
    b) 40p
    c) 60p
    You really lack imagination Mr Pioneers.... from tomorrow I expect Boris is making petrol and diesel FREE of charge.

    :D:D
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,028
    No one in that cabinet currently deserves to be anywhere near power. Or the next leadership battle for that matter.

    Time for the new generation of Tory MPs to sort this absolute shambles out.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Andy_JS said:

    If there's a general election at which Party A wins a comfortable majority for a five year term of office, and five weeks later the opposition is miles ahead in the opinion polls, we don't say the election result is illegitimate and there should have to be another election.

    The problem is you are trying to equate our Parliamentary system with the US Presidential system.

    You DON'T get a five year term. You get UP TO five years, and as history has shown since World War II, many Parliamentary terms have not lasted five years.

    The polls have nothing to do with the term of Parliament. In fact, the majority a party won has NOTHING to do with Parliament. Because, and lets all shout it loud: "YOU VOTE FOR THE PERSON, NOT THE PARTY."

    And if the person (MP) decides to defect, change their mind, tell you fibs and do something else, there is bugger all the voters can do about it.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,641

    John McTernan thinks Johnson will use peers to fill all the holes in his government.

    Not sure whether he is joking or not.

    He could try the Gordon Brown 'government of all the talents' approach and draft in people from outside.

    Sarah Beeny as Housing Minister, Martin Lewis as Minister for Prices and Incomes, etc.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,258

    .

    David Duguid has just resigned.

    Surely that must be the tipping point

    I've been calling him a fawning lickspittle for ages. And tweeted twice in the last day or so that he and Vickers have gone frit.

    Glad he has grown a pair. I look forward to helping remove him from office as an MP
    Apparently he was Trade Envoy to Angola and Zambia.
    FISHERIES and Trade Envoy to Angola and Zambia.
    Does Zambia have a coast?

    No, but there are many fish in the Zambezi and Lake Tanganyika.
    Enough to justify a fisheries envoy…
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,720
    I have utter faith that the Queen will navigate this in the best interests of the constitution and the country.

    If one person can finally out fox Johnson it is our longest reigning monarch.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    Heathener said:

    Anyone else wondering if even if the 1922 change the rules and he loses he will fight it on legal grounds, saying that he won fair and square?

    I think there’s a lot of precedents for the courts refusing to interfere in the running of members’ clubs.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,526

    John McTernan thinks Johnson will use peers to fill all the holes in his government.

    Not sure whether he is joking or not.

    It's a solution to the practical problem of not having enough Commons loyalists, removing the weaselly "we don't want to force you out but sadly we will otherwise not have a working govermnent" argument.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Johnson to make senior cabinet appointments tonight and joint presentation on the economy with Zahawi tomorrow

    Zahawi career is over and he will go down with Johnson

    So tomorrow they basically throw open the wallet and make their pitch to stay in place to deliver massive help to ease the cost of living crisis, then dare the rest of the Tory party to no confidence Boris and put all that cash-splashing in jeopardy. Is that the gameplan?
    Yes.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    Could he declare martial law and call in the military?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    pigeon said:

    John McTernan thinks Johnson will use peers to fill all the holes in his government.

    Not sure whether he is joking or not.

    If he can find enough people to plug the holes then why not? If there aren't enough existing lords willing to take the jobs Johnson can always find random party donors and staffers from Tory HQ and ennoble them.
    Big opportunity for HYUFD at last as Minister for Propaganda.

    Actually so far as I am aware, there is no official constitutional rule that Ministers need to be MPs or Lords.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,839

    Could he declare martial law and call in the military?

    What military?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,394

    Scott_xP said:

    Extraordinary

    Nadhim Zahawi today told Boris Johnson he should resign

    Tomorrow he's agreed to launch a new economic plan alongside Boris Johnson in a bid to shore up his leadership according to @SkyNews

    Today is bewildering by any metric

    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1544771793797484546

    Just a total plonker. I can't keep up with his marching up and down the hill to save his own sorry hide. Not someone you could EVER trust to be PM.
    *smug face*

    He was a terrible disappointment at the DfE. Following his vaccine success I was really hopeful finally somebody would get a grip on the bloody place. But my goodness, he makes Cummings look like a standout success.

    And it clearly wasn't a blip. It's just what he is.
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058

    John McTernan thinks Johnson will use peers to fill all the holes in his government.

    Not sure whether he is joking or not.

    He could try the Gordon Brown 'government of all the talents' approach and draft in people from outside.

    Sarah Beeny as Housing Minister, Martin Lewis as Minister for Prices and Incomes, etc.
    Rolf Harris as Minister for Nonces
This discussion has been closed.