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Game over, man – politicalbetting.com

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  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    I can believe Wallace saying this.


    Cabinet ministers privately saying it's all over but that they're staying in government out of a sense of duty

    Duty not to PM, but to ensuring that there is still a government left to actually run the country

    They think it will be done in the next 24-48 hours



    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1544691452504117249

    If they had been organised yesterday and left on mass during cabinet or last night they would have been back at their desks this morning with Bozo gone...
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Scott_xP said:

    And another..! Graham Brady may as well meet Johnson at the door at the end of the Liaison Committee. It's over. https://twitter.com/HuwMerriman/status/1544693144645734402

    Sky at 31, don't know if Merriman has been counted.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,633
    Nice touch from Sky News to add a resignation counter on screen.



    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1544694863924543488
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,636

    I wonder what the R-rate is for ministerial resignations?

    Will there be a third wave tomorrow?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    "Minister for Safeguarding" *snigger*
    Sort of thing that requires a lot of individual decisions so probably requires it's own head..
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And another..! Graham Brady may as well meet Johnson at the door at the end of the Liaison Committee. It's over. https://twitter.com/HuwMerriman/status/1544693144645734402

    Sky at 31, don't know if Merriman has been counted.
    He isn't a minister so he won't be part of the 31 – they are only government ministers.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    HYUFD said:

    Scott_xP said:

    It feels like it is all over for the PM now, one way or another. But it is worth pausing to consider what a dramatic fall from grace it is. In political terms, it is only 5 minutes since he won his party a large majority. It is unprecedented, certainly in modern times.
    https://twitter.com/tombradby/status/1544681661366943744

    He won the Tories their biggest majority since Thatcher in 1987 in 2019 and they will now likely have to wait another 30 years to match it
    Pros and cons for everyone there.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,526
    edited July 2022
    Completely OT for a minute, I did enjoy the Undeclared War series that is being shown on Channel 4.

    It was by no means perfect - the balance between hard hitting thriller and soap opera was skewed with too much of the latter which detracted from the former but never the less it was an enjoyable and novel bit of escapism.

    Huge plot holes of course but those in the know seem to think it was a pretty good reflection of the current state of trade in cyber warfare and I did think the way they portrayed the protagonists working through problems in cyberspace worked very well.

    I would recommend it with those caveats.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    edited July 2022

    I can believe Wallace saying this.


    Cabinet ministers privately saying it's all over but that they're staying in government out of a sense of duty

    Duty not to PM, but to ensuring that there is still a government left to actually run the country

    They think it will be done in the next 24-48 hours



    https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1544691452504117249

    Wallace and (now he's in post) Zahawi are the only cabinet ministers that need (I think) to stay given the situations with sterling and Ukraine respectively.

    We could live without the other ministers for a while tbh.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 5,916
    edited July 2022
    I understand Huw Merriman is at the Liaison Committee (and tweeted this from it)

    Huw Merriman MP
    @HuwMerriman
    My statement on the Prime Minister:

    https://twitter.com/HuwMerriman/status/1544693144645734402
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    I wonder what the R-rate is for ministerial resignations?

    Will there be a third wave tomorrow?
    I’m looking forward to iCabinet being set up.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    dixiedean said:

    At what stage does the actual business of government cease to function?
    There must be hundreds of cancelled meetings and postponed decisions already?

    I do wonder at what point he finds he cannot fill the posts that have been vacated. There were not that many backbenchers who supported him last time around and there will be even fewer now. If he does try to hang on it will be interesting to see how many ministerial posts remain vacant.
    Boris Corbyn will simply follow his twin brother Jeremy's playbook and appoint one loyalist numpty to multiple cabinet posts.
    That pisstake infographic showing Nadine Dorries as Secretary of State for most departments may not be far off reality soon.

    Remember that ministers of the crown do not need to be members of the Commons. He has various Lords who will back him - like Lord Lebedev - and others outside the palace completely - like Lord Lebedev's dad, and the Prime Minister's wife - who will be delighted to be ministers.

    How could anyone object to - for example - Alexander Lebedev being appointed a Defence Minister?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Nice touch from Sky News to add a resignation counter on screen.



    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1544694863924543488

    surely 31 ministers as they haven't taken the Chiltern Hundreds / Manor of Northstead.

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Huw Merriman seems to have sent his letter in WHILE he was actually sitting on the liaison committee. He is now quizzing Boris. Absolutely bizarre scenes.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288

    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And another..! Graham Brady may as well meet Johnson at the door at the end of the Liaison Committee. It's over. https://twitter.com/HuwMerriman/status/1544693144645734402

    Sky at 31, don't know if Merriman has been counted.
    He isn't a minister so he won't be part of the 31 – they are only government ministers.
    Getting ahead of myself!

    32 is symbolically indicative, but 32 resignations != 32 more votes against in a VoNC.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,064
    Watching the Liaison Committee, I think he knows he's toast.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    So did Merriman send that tweet from inside the Commitee meeting??
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    BMG

    Lab 42%
    Con 32%
    LD 11%
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    dixiedean said:

    At what stage does the actual business of government cease to function?
    There must be hundreds of cancelled meetings and postponed decisions already?

    I do wonder at what point he finds he cannot fill the posts that have been vacated. There were not that many backbenchers who supported him last time around and there will be even fewer now. If he does try to hang on it will be interesting to see how many ministerial posts remain vacant.
    Boris Corbyn will simply follow his twin brother Jeremy's playbook and appoint one loyalist numpty to multiple cabinet posts.
    That pisstake infographic showing Nadine Dorries as Secretary of State for most departments may not be far off reality soon.

    Remember that ministers of the crown do not need to be members of the Commons. He has various Lords who will back him - like Lord Lebedev - and others outside the palace completely - like Lord Lebedev's dad, and the Prime Minister's wife - who will be delighted to be ministers.

    How could anyone object to - for example - Alexander Lebedev being appointed a Defence Minister?
    Lebbo at Defence
    Carrie at Environment
    Nadine at Everything Else.

    Easily done.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Huw Merriman seems to have sent his letter in WHILE he was actually sitting on the liaison committee. He is now quizzing Boris. Absolutely bizarre scenes.

    Mm.
    Probably safe to say the answers haven't been persuasive.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,822
    moonshine said:

    It’s amusing to me how many of those sticking the knife into Johnson today, have shall we say, less than impeccable records when it comes to their own sexual conduct.

    Yes, because that is the only reason he has to go of course......nothing to do with constant lies and taking everyone around him for a useful idiot.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    dixiedean said:

    At what stage does the actual business of government cease to function?
    There must be hundreds of cancelled meetings and postponed decisions already?

    This is the thing - are there now enough MP's in the 'loyal' pool to actually replace these junior Ministers, regardless of competency? If not, can the Government function?
    The BBC quoted Johnson's press secretary earlier as saying they were confident they could be replaced, and "There will be further appointments over the coming days"

    So the more junior positions are not going to be filled "in real time".

    I suppose a secondary concern, if they aren't filled, is that people will realise that what we call government will continue to function even without ministers nominally in charge of it.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    moonshine said:

    It’s amusing to me how many of those sticking the knife into Johnson today, have shall we say, less than impeccable records when it comes to their own sexual conduct.

    What, grabbing blokes todgers unwantedly? Condoning todger grabbing? What are you on about?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    edited July 2022
    DavidL said:

    Sandpit said:

    Parliament rises on the 21st of July. Is it vaguely possible that Johnson can hang on until then?

    Yes. That’s his plan.
    That may be his plan but it is not going to happen. He just might make tomorrow but it is looking increasingly unlikely.
    I suggest he may just not resign. He will carry on, leaving many junior posts unfilled, as previously suggested, until parliament rises. There will be all sorts of mayhem and many decisions will not be taken but that will be the situation. I'm pretty sure it's not within the 'ordinary'MPs power to recall parliament, although it may be within the Speaker's, and so nothing will happen until the party conference season. By which time who knows what might have occurred!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368

    Watching the Liaison Committee, I think he knows he's toast.

    Johnson is woefully poor. Merriman is hanging him at the moment.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    biggles said:

    RobD said:

    So, who will be interim PM if he does flounce?

    Theresa May.

    Note - We don't have interim PMs, we have full fat PMs, no acting Presidents like those treasonous colonials in America.
    If he flounces we already have a DPM. Someone needs to explain to me how the Private Secretary to The Queen doesn't call in Raaaaab in that circumstance and instead calls the rejected former PM?
    Same reason Nick Clegg wouldn't have become PM if David Cameron fell under a bus.

    The PM needs to command a majority of the Commons, I don't think Raab will get that.
    And it’s just about believable for May to say “I don’t want to stay”. Same would be true for a short Cameron ministry from the Lords.

    Bring back May as an interim PM while they hold the contest?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    The Queen has reportedly returned to Windsor from Sandringham. On Jan 8th, 1957, Anthony Eden went to Sandringham for a chat, spent the night and then HM needed to return to London for a meeting with her dressmaker the next day. At 6pm that day Eden went to the Palace to resign
    https://twitter.com/patrick_kidd/status/1544665212674097152
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    What is the heart badge?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,633
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    What is the heart badge?

    40th anniversary of the Terrence Higgins Trust.

    https://twitter.com/THTorguk/status/1541662684143267842
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 2,999
    Tiny tidbit: A Seattle TV station (KOMO 4) included Boris Johnson's troubles in their local news program this morning.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    dixiedean said:

    At what stage does the actual business of government cease to function?
    There must be hundreds of cancelled meetings and postponed decisions already?

    I do wonder at what point he finds he cannot fill the posts that have been vacated. There were not that many backbenchers who supported him last time around and there will be even fewer now. If he does try to hang on it will be interesting to see how many ministerial posts remain vacant.
    Boris Corbyn will simply follow his twin brother Jeremy's playbook and appoint one loyalist numpty to multiple cabinet posts.
    That pisstake infographic showing Nadine Dorries as Secretary of State for most departments may not be far off reality soon.

    Remember that ministers of the crown do not need to be members of the Commons. He has various Lords who will back him - like Lord Lebedev - and others outside the palace completely - like Lord Lebedev's dad, and the Prime Minister's wife - who will be delighted to be ministers.

    How could anyone object to - for example - Alexander Lebedev being appointed a Defence Minister?
    Lebbo at Defence
    Carrie at Environment
    Nadine at Everything Else.

    Easily done.
    Or Johnson, in the vein of Churchill, as Prime Minister and Minister of Defence and Ukraine?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,191
    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And another..! Graham Brady may as well meet Johnson at the door at the end of the Liaison Committee. It's over. https://twitter.com/HuwMerriman/status/1544693144645734402

    Sky at 31, don't know if Merriman has been counted.
    He isn't a minister so he won't be part of the 31 – they are only government ministers.
    Getting ahead of myself!

    32 is symbolically indicative, but 32 resignations != 32 more votes against in a VoNC.
    It'd be odds against for Boris to win another 22 vote, but perhaps he fancies his chances. Perhaps too few, but there's still a large rump of toadies that'll vote for him.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    It's often said that the Commons becomes kinder to leaders when it's clear their time is up, that MPs go easier on a Prime Minister facing their end

    It's certainly not felt that way today. It's clear many MPs hold Boris Johnson in utter contempt.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1544696809133596672
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    What is the heart badge?

    40th anniversary of the Terrence Higgins Trust.

    https://twitter.com/THTorguk/status/1541662684143267842
    Thanks
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    Watching the Liaison Committee, I think he knows he's toast.

    Johnson is woefully poor. Merriman is hanging him at the moment.
    He's just torn BlowJo a new hole about the government's pitiful engagement on ways to fill the 4% of Treasury revenues from fuel duty. Even Bernard Jenkin joined in with a kicking.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    This is all getting terribly sad. Sad for the country. Sad for the party. Sad for the man.

  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    It’s amusing to me how many of those sticking the knife into Johnson today, have shall we say, less than impeccable records when it comes to their own sexual conduct.

    What, grabbing blokes todgers unwantedly? Condoning todger grabbing? What are you on about?
    Not all MPs conduct makes it into the public
    domain. But there’s enough dirt just within that Committee room to fill 4000 holes in Blackburn Lancashire
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    biggles said:

    RobD said:

    So, who will be interim PM if he does flounce?

    Theresa May.

    Note - We don't have interim PMs, we have full fat PMs, no acting Presidents like those treasonous colonials in America.
    If he flounces we already have a DPM. Someone needs to explain to me how the Private Secretary to The Queen doesn't call in Raaaaab in that circumstance and instead calls the rejected former PM?
    Same reason Nick Clegg wouldn't have become PM if David Cameron fell under a bus.

    The PM needs to command a majority of the Commons, I don't think Raab will get that.
    And it’s just about believable for May to say “I don’t want to stay”. Same would be true for a short Cameron ministry from the Lords.

    Bring back May as an interim PM while they hold the contest?
    Yep - if you want top trolling - that would do it...
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,220
    Just think.

    If Boris had gone in Summer 2020, he'd have been a national hero. Had he gone in Summer 2021, he'd have been at the height of his powers. He could have gone a month ago with some dignity and an ongoing ability to cast a shadow over the party and country.

    I much prefer this sort of departure.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Subtle attempt to change the topic here


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    36m
    - Johnson is asked at liaison committee if he's worried that Brexit will cost 4% of GDP (official forecast) but the Australia trade deal will only add 0.08% to GDP

    - the prime minister replies that Britain had a very successful vaccine programme
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited July 2022
    The French Government is nationalising EDF....

    https://www.ft.com/content/fd449ff6-9d33-42fe-b2e8-861c94382230
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,358
    Perhaps Johnson is hoping that thousands of his supporters will march on Whitehall and storm Parliament, to keep him as PM.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Heathener said:

    This is all getting terribly sad. Sad for the country. Sad for the party. Sad for the man.

    As a disgruntled one time Conservative Activist I am cock-a-hoop. Hopefully the populists are finished. The Conservative Party can go back to being a Conservative Party and a serious party of government. This is all provided they choose a half decent leader. If they do I might even join again. My floating vote may not be floating much longer!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,497
    As always the great David Allen Green addresses the interesting questions:



    https://davidallengreen.com/2022/07/what-if-boris-johnson-refuses-to-resign/


  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361

    dixiedean said:

    At what stage does the actual business of government cease to function?
    There must be hundreds of cancelled meetings and postponed decisions already?

    This is the thing - are there now enough MP's in the 'loyal' pool to actually replace these junior Ministers, regardless of competency? If not, can the Government function?
    If Johnson really wants to try and brazen it out he will have to create new Peers to appoint loyal non-MPs to the Minister of State positions.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Heathener said:

    This is all getting terribly sad. Sad for the country. Sad for the party. Sad for the man.

    Sad for Johnson?

    Bloody hell. People have spent 5 extra years in Iranian jails as a result of select committee hearings. This is nothing.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Pulpstar said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    Scott_xP said:

    And another..! Graham Brady may as well meet Johnson at the door at the end of the Liaison Committee. It's over. https://twitter.com/HuwMerriman/status/1544693144645734402

    Sky at 31, don't know if Merriman has been counted.
    He isn't a minister so he won't be part of the 31 – they are only government ministers.
    Getting ahead of myself!

    32 is symbolically indicative, but 32 resignations != 32 more votes against in a VoNC.
    It'd be odds against for Boris to win another 22 vote, but perhaps he fancies his chances. Perhaps too few, but there's still a large rump of toadies that'll vote for him.
    If he takes it to a vote I predict he will get less than 50.

    The game is up. Everyone else knows it. Except him and Nads, obvs.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    After these PMQs It’s not so much that the wheels have come off the bus but that the bus itself has disintegrated and Boris Johnson is merely sitting at a steering wheel in a playground.
    https://twitter.com/IsabelHardman/status/1544645413571121153
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,633
    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Heathener said:

    This is all getting terribly sad. Sad for the country. Sad for the party. Sad for the man.

    Nah, he locked us all up and partied. Fuck him. Same way i'll cry no tears for Starmer when he gets his fine.
  • pigeonpigeon Posts: 4,839
    Chris said:

    dixiedean said:

    At what stage does the actual business of government cease to function?
    There must be hundreds of cancelled meetings and postponed decisions already?

    I do wonder at what point he finds he cannot fill the posts that have been vacated. There were not that many backbenchers who supported him last time around and there will be even fewer now. If he does try to hang on it will be interesting to see how many ministerial posts remain vacant.
    Boris Corbyn will simply follow his twin brother Jeremy's playbook and appoint one loyalist numpty to multiple cabinet posts.
    That pisstake infographic showing Nadine Dorries as Secretary of State for most departments may not be far off reality soon.

    Remember that ministers of the crown do not need to be members of the Commons. He has various Lords who will back him - like Lord Lebedev - and others outside the palace completely - like Lord Lebedev's dad, and the Prime Minister's wife - who will be delighted to be ministers.

    How could anyone object to - for example - Alexander Lebedev being appointed a Defence Minister?
    Lebbo at Defence
    Carrie at Environment
    Nadine at Everything Else.

    Easily done.
    Or Johnson, in the vein of Churchill, as Prime Minister and Minister of Defence and Ukraine?
    Or like that Duke of Wellington caretaker ministry, where he did all the jobs himself?
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052
    eek said:

    Subtle attempt to change the topic here


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    36m
    - Johnson is asked at liaison committee if he's worried that Brexit will cost 4% of GDP (official forecast) but the Australia trade deal will only add 0.08% to GDP

    - the prime minister replies that Britain had a very successful vaccine programme

    Shows his lack of ability to actually think about his replies. That argument is easy to slay.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    A wonder if Graham Brady wants to have a quiet word or whether he would just prefer to announce a second vote tomorrow and see what Bozo does...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,636
    eek said:

    The French Government is nationalising EDF....

    https://www.ft.com/content/fd449ff6-9d33-42fe-b2e8-861c94382230

    They already owned 80%.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    Just think.

    If Boris had gone in Summer 2020, he'd have been a national hero. Had he gone in Summer 2021, he'd have been at the height of his powers. He could have gone a month ago with some dignity and an ongoing ability to cast a shadow over the party and country.

    I much prefer this sort of departure.

    Very few Prime Ministers get out in time and depart on their own terms.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    It would be rather remarkable if a lot of MPs were writing letters, considering the rules don't allow another vote, wouldn't it?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    eek said:

    The French Government is nationalising EDF....

    https://www.ft.com/content/fd449ff6-9d33-42fe-b2e8-861c94382230

    So the French government own England’s nuclear power stations.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Farooq said:

    Heathener said:

    This is all getting terribly sad. Sad for the country. Sad for the party. Sad for the man.

    No it's not. It's fucking brilliant. I want to see Boris crying actual tears of frustrated, impotent rage.
    I guess that's a stereotypical but probably true picture of difference between men and women. I have never revelled in the crushing of a foe.

    However, I was meaning on a rather different level. The whole thing is a terribly sad state of affairs to be in. Once upon a time a gentleman, or gentlewoman, knew when and how to fall on their sword. There was a thing called decency.

    To see the office of Prime Minister of the United Kingdom dragged through the sewer like this is terribly, terribly, sad.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Chris said:

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    It would be rather remarkable if a lot of MPs were writing letters, considering the rules don't allow another vote, wouldn't it?
    They are also asking for a rule change. So no.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    eek said:

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    A wonder if Graham Brady wants to have a quiet word or whether he would just prefer to announce a second vote tomorrow and see what Bozo does...
    Interesting that Gove, Truss and Pritti Awful were all missing today at PMQs. Perhaps they will all resign tomorrow if he hasn't gone?
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    A word about all the numpties writing letters today that voted Confidence last month. If it weren’t for them the country would have been deprived of all this fun.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    Big numbers = half the Conservative Parliamentary Party +1?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    biggles said:

    eek said:

    Subtle attempt to change the topic here


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    36m
    - Johnson is asked at liaison committee if he's worried that Brexit will cost 4% of GDP (official forecast) but the Australia trade deal will only add 0.08% to GDP

    - the prime minister replies that Britain had a very successful vaccine programme

    Shows his lack of ability to actually think about his replies. That argument is easy to slay.
    Not really because it is a fact. You can argue that the "benefits of Brexit" are having a black passport and...having a black passport (we could have done that anyway btw), but it is difficult even for the Liar in Chief to lie about stats in front of a select committee
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163
    Scott_xP said:

    It's often said that the Commons becomes kinder to leaders when it's clear their time is up, that MPs go easier on a Prime Minister facing their end

    It's certainly not felt that way today. It's clear many MPs hold Boris Johnson in utter contempt.

    https://twitter.com/REWearmouth/status/1544696809133596672

    Well, he does act like a complete and utter tit....
  • Mike Freer 32?

  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    I wonder if Brady Old Lady will himself like another tilt at the top job?

    But he will face stiff (fnarr, fnarr) opposition from Penny Mordauners and Her Double Entendres.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hvLcYUXBBuc
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    It would be rather remarkable if a lot of MPs were writing letters, considering the rules don't allow another vote, wouldn't it?
    They are also asking for a rule change. So no.
    And also - the rules are not designed to be insane. If Mrs Brady receives a veritable mountain of letters, it would be insane NOT to simply get the exec to call a vote. They have the absolute power to change the rules. They meet this evening do they not...?
  • Boris saying "I hear you loud and clear" on the problem of fuel duty.

    I do wonder in a parallel universe where he had followed @Sandpit 's advice of suspending fuel duty while the war in Ukraine was going on if that would have moved politics on from all the scandals, seen the Tories return to the lead, and he'd be safe now in Downing Street instead of in his final hours.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    BREAKING. Mike freer resigns. Takes us to 32 - 15 of them ministers, 2 of them cabinet ministers. Freer: “I can no longer defend policies I fundamentally disagree with” https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1544700082905300992/photo/1
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,633

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    Big numbers = half the Conservative Parliamentary Party +1?
    That's what I've heard.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Have to say this is public service broadcasting at its finest.

    Though perhaps not particularly edifying, the entertainment is considerable.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,913
    "Game over, man"

    New balls please.......
  • 32 reached! Its official.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001

    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Boris's epitaph will be that he got all the big calls right.

    But treated every other call with utter contempt.

    OPatz was a big call. And he fucked it up.

    Pincher was a big call. And it ended him.
    I'll give Johnson appointing Kate Bingham as a call he got right...
    The Kate Bingham who said we wouldn't want to vaccinate the whole adult population because the risk of side effects was too great?

    If that was one of his good calls, I'd hate to consider the bad ones!
    Did she specifically say that? And when? Often population effects only become clear after much wider use (as in the AZ clotting problem) as 1 in 10,000 odds don't show up in trial data that well.
    Yes, of course she said that.

    And why one wouldn't want to vaccinate against a disease with around 1% infection fatality rate, because of side effects that didn't show up in a trial of 30-40,000 people is still a complete mystery to me. God knows what a mess we'd still be in now if her advice then had been followed.
    You got a quote?
    Also what is the IFR for those under 40?
    Bad enough.

    Looking at a country where vaccine hesitancy was considerably greater than here: https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/07/covid-was-the-leading-cause-of-death-in-americans-aged-45-54-in-2021/

    Covid was the leading cause of death in Americans aged 45-54 and the second top cause of death in Americans aged 35-44 in 2021.

    In any case, the way people focus on the death rate (which is admittedly important) and skip past the severe illness/hospitalisation/long term consequences rates does frustrate me.

    Rates of death from cardiovascular or pulmonary diseases is a lot higher in post-covid sufferers of all ages. Neurological damage is far more common. We're going to be sweeping up the debris from this for decades.

    And thanks to the massive and relentless hospitalisations we've seen, ambulance delays and other hospital appointment delays have been huge and will remain huge going forwards. Unless or until we give big increases in resources to hospitals and sort out filtration in shared areas nationwide (we're missing the window on this for a third summer in succession).

    Meanwhile, the decision to only give spring boosters to 75+ is now coming back to bite us on the arse:

    image
    (To bring it around to the need to have vax rollout to younger ages)
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    Boris saying "I hear you loud and clear" on the problem of fuel duty.

    I do wonder in a parallel universe where he had followed @Sandpit 's advice of suspending fuel duty while the war in Ukraine was going on if that would have moved politics on from all the scandals, seen the Tories return to the lead, and he'd be safe now in Downing Street instead of in his final hours.

    Would have been a lot better use of £16bn than a cut in Corporation Tax...
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Chris said:

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    It would be rather remarkable if a lot of MPs were writing letters, considering the rules don't allow another vote, wouldn't it?
    It was probably surprising to them when Boris said he wasn't going to change in response, and has proved it repeatedly over the course of the few weeks since the vote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    Beyond a certain number, the rules become irrelevant.
  • Roger said:

    "Game over, man"

    New balls please.......

    32 now ex-Ministers have found theirs ...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    eek said:

    The French Government is nationalising EDF....

    https://www.ft.com/content/fd449ff6-9d33-42fe-b2e8-861c94382230

    So the French government own England’s nuclear power stations.
    yawn.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324
    nico679 said:

    There’s nothing sad about seeing the end of the most disgusting corrupt PM in living memory.

    Wouldn't choose exactly those words but certainly the worst in my lifetime {Atlee onwards, since you ask}.

    Interesting and serious follow-up question- who would be the second worst? Off the cuff I'd suggest Eden, but I'd need to think about it.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,749
    edited July 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    Chris said:

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    It would be rather remarkable if a lot of MPs were writing letters, considering the rules don't allow another vote, wouldn't it?
    They are also asking for a rule change. So no.
    I don't know. They are MPs, and ideally would have some inkling how to go about things. I don't think it would be at all remarkable if they were writing to ask for a change in the rules. But until such time as the rules are changed, it makes no sense to put in letters that will have no effect. Unless just for use on social media.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Enough is enough. It’s time to move forward. Please see my statement below. https://twitter.com/jogideon/status/1544696509924532225/photo/1
  • Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING. Mike freer resigns. Takes us to 32 - 15 of them ministers, 2 of them cabinet ministers. Freer: “I can no longer defend policies I fundamentally disagree with” https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1544700082905300992/photo/1

    As a backbencher he's freer to criticise the Prime Minister.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,567
    edited July 2022
    moonshine said:

    NEW: No confidence letters sent to Graham Brady have reached “big numbers”, I understand, making a fresh no confidence vote more likely within hours (even though the rules state a year, Brady may have no choice but to act)

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/1544698852036558849

    A word about all the numpties writing letters today that voted Confidence last month. If it weren’t for them the country would have been deprived of all this fun.
    Their judgement really is appalling. The only thing that has changed since early June is a Whip got pissed and gropy. Boris lying about what he knew when shouldn't be of any surprise.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    moonshine said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    moonshine said:

    It’s amusing to me how many of those sticking the knife into Johnson today, have shall we say, less than impeccable records when it comes to their own sexual conduct.

    What, grabbing blokes todgers unwantedly? Condoning todger grabbing? What are you on about?
    Not all MPs conduct makes it into the public
    domain. But there’s enough dirt just within that Committee room to fill 4000 holes in Blackburn Lancashire
    So you say. They aren't having a go at him over anything sexual tho, Yet.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    "How important is the truth to you, Prime Minister?"

    This section from Robert Neill sounds like it will be detailed and eviscerating.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Boris saying "I hear you loud and clear" on the problem of fuel duty.

    I do wonder in a parallel universe where he had followed @Sandpit 's advice of suspending fuel duty while the war in Ukraine was going on if that would have moved politics on from all the scandals, seen the Tories return to the lead, and he'd be safe now in Downing Street instead of in his final hours.

    Nah.
    Because he'd still be the kind of guy who appoints his mate the sex pest, then blatantly lies about it.
    He does this because he is Boris Johnson.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    nico679 said:

    There’s nothing sad about seeing the end of the most disgusting corrupt PM in living memory.

    Wouldn't choose exactly those words but certainly the worst in my lifetime {Atlee onwards, since you ask}.

    Interesting and serious follow-up question- who would be the second worst? Off the cuff I'd suggest Eden, but I'd need to think about it.
    Brown or May I would guess.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    nico679 said:

    There’s nothing sad about seeing the end of the most disgusting corrupt PM in living memory.

    Wouldn't choose exactly those words but certainly the worst in my lifetime {Atlee onwards, since you ask}.

    Interesting and serious follow-up question- who would be the second worst? Off the cuff I'd suggest Eden, but I'd need to think about it.
    Cameron, for me.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    biggles said:

    eek said:

    Subtle attempt to change the topic here


    Jim Pickard
    @PickardJE
    ·
    36m
    - Johnson is asked at liaison committee if he's worried that Brexit will cost 4% of GDP (official forecast) but the Australia trade deal will only add 0.08% to GDP

    - the prime minister replies that Britain had a very successful vaccine programme

    Shows his lack of ability to actually think about his replies. That argument is easy to slay.
    Not really because it is a fact. You can argue that the "benefits of Brexit" are having a black passport and...having a black passport (we could have done that anyway btw), but it is difficult even for the Liar in Chief to lie about stats in front of a select committee
    Nah it’s easy. On his specific question you say “those two things aren’t at comparable”. If he follows up on just the EU point you say “we wanted an agreement with full equivalence provisions but sadly the EU wouldn’t go for it. On the broader question of EU membership, that is of course about far more than single percentage points of GDP over a large number of years, judged against a doubtful counter-factual”.

    Depending on your political views you can even go further and note that a large part of the GDP boost from being a member is gains due to immigration, and say not having those is a feature and not a bug (a point I disagree with but concede is valid).
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    "How important it the truth to you, Prime Minister ?"

    "Very important."

    Smoke issues from posterior.
    Oratorical dung continues to gush.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Scott_xP said:

    Enough is enough. It’s time to move forward. Please see my statement below. https://twitter.com/jogideon/status/1544696509924532225/photo/1

    The danger of Twitter handles.I read that name as Jogi Deon - cf. Kemi Badenoch.

    Will Boris have Jogged On soon?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,633
    This is quite the ruling by the Supreme Court.

    The UK’s highest court has ruled that diplomats who exploit domestic workers in conditions of modern slavery cannot rely on diplomatic immunity to prevent compensation claims.

    Describing exploitation of migrant domestic workers by foreign diplomats as a “significant problem”, the supreme court ruled by a majority of three to two that exploitation of a domestic worker for profit falls within the “commercial activity” exemption to immunity under the diplomatic convention.

    The case concerned Khalid Basfar, a London-based Saudi diplomat who allegedly treated a Filipino staff member as a slave, forcing her to wear a bell 24 hours a day to be at his “family’s beck and call”.


    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/06/diplomats-who-exploit-domestic-staff-cannot-rely-on-immunity-says-uk-supreme-court
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    Scott_xP said:

    BREAKING. Mike freer resigns. Takes us to 32 - 15 of them ministers, 2 of them cabinet ministers. Freer: “I can no longer defend policies I fundamentally disagree with” https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1544700082905300992/photo/1

    As a backbencher he's freer to criticise the Prime Minister.
    Does he do all his speeches without voice amplification?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    edited July 2022
    It’s over, but we don’t yet know quite how.

    Boris could resign tonight or tomorrow, either with immediate effect (1), or giving enough time for leadership elections (2).

    Boris could also wait for a VONC next week, following which he could either resign immediately (3), or again, giving enough time for leadership elections (4).

    He could win a VONC (5).

    He could also refuse to resign after an unsuccessful VONC and wait for the Queen to dismiss him (6).

    There is a not unreasonable chance that Sir Graham Brady is the next PM. I don’t think Dominic Raab has a chance under any of these possibilities.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Now 32, adding ministers and PPSs together
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906

    Meanwhile, the decision to only give spring boosters to 75+ is now coming back to bite us on the arse:

    (To bring it around to the need to have vax rollout to younger ages)

    I think the vaccination programme failed at the point the second jabs were due, it simply never scaled up fast and high enough to keep up the rate necessary. We've still done a great job overall, and moved far faster than most other comparable countries, but really we should be whacking these jabs into arms as fast as we can and as soon as we can. Seeing the dismal numbers we get now is very disappointing.
This discussion has been closed.