Am I being stupid to assume that if Boris decided to call a snap election to try and cling on, Labour could quickly go for a VoNC in parliament, Boris would lose and then the Queen has to call someone to try and form a gov.
Surely that would be neither Boris nor SKS due to numbers and therefore would have to be a Tory anyway.
Point being that calling an election doesn’t help him?
In the space of 24 hours Zahawi has got himself into the second biggest job in government, and is now telling the PM to go so triggering a leadership challenge with him starting it as Chancellor.
I knew we were watching some sort of wacky political theatre production penned by a deranged playwright when Huw Merriman sent in his letter of no confidence while interviewing the prime minister in the committee. Now this.
There’s nothing sad about seeing the end of the most disgusting corrupt PM in living memory.
Wouldn't choose exactly those words but certainly the worst in my lifetime {Atlee onwards, since you ask}.
Interesting and serious follow-up question- who would be the second worst? Off the cuff I'd suggest Eden, but I'd need to think about it.
Eden certainly made one catastrophic error of judgement which led to the country being humiliated, but I don't know enough about his Premiership more generally to say where he ranks. I'd think Theresa May was quite competitive with him.
Eden and Cameron have more in common. Eden was a v successful FS and effectively Deputy PM for some years.
They are both near bottom though because of disastrous judgements.
Post war, you’d want to suggest something like;
1. Thatcher 2. Attlee 3. Blair 4. MacMillan 5. Wilson / Heath / Major 6. Brown / Callaghan / May 7. Cameron / Eden 8. Johnson
I have not bothered to rank ADH.
Serious question, where would you put peace time Churchill in that list?
Wouldn't such a call need to be ratified by parliament?
General elections are called by the sovereign on the advice of her ministers, unless five years have elapsed since a new Parliament met for the first time since the last general election.
We do not yet know if the Queen will apply the Lascelles principles to reject a request for a GE, but we all have opinions on the question.
In the space of 24 hours Zahawi has got himself into the second biggest job in government, and is now telling the PM to go so triggering a leadership challenge with him starting it as Chancellor.
Like a script from House of Cards.
It is truly the most insane plot thread so far.
Tim Shipman did point this out on twitter yesterday when everyone was saying Zahawi is mad.
Am I being stupid to assume that if Boris decided to call a snap election to try and cling on, Labour could quickly go for a VoNC in parliament, Boris would lose and then the Queen has to call someone to try and form a gov.
Surely that would be neither Boris nor SKS due to numbers and therefore would have to be a Tory anyway.
Point being that calling an election doesn’t help him?
Not stupid, but no. The Queen - under advisement - would not let Boris exercise what presents as an unsupported election.
Boris's epitaph will be that he got all the big calls right.
But treated every other call with utter contempt.
OPatz was a big call. And he fucked it up.
Pincher was a big call. And it ended him.
I'll give Johnson appointing Kate Bingham as a call he got right...
The Kate Bingham who said we wouldn't want to vaccinate the whole adult population because the risk of side effects was too great?
If that was one of his good calls, I'd hate to consider the bad ones!
Did she specifically say that? And when? Often population effects only become clear after much wider use (as in the AZ clotting problem) as 1 in 10,000 odds don't show up in trial data that well.
Yes, of course she said that.
And why one wouldn't want to vaccinate against a disease with around 1% infection fatality rate, because of side effects that didn't show up in a trial of 30-40,000 people is still a complete mystery to me. God knows what a mess we'd still be in now if her advice then had been followed.
Covid was the leading cause of death in Americans aged 45-54 and the second top cause of death in Americans aged 35-44 in 2021.
In any case, the way people focus on the death rate (which is admittedly important) and skip past the severe illness/hospitalisation/long term consequences rates does frustrate me.
Rates of death from cardiovascular or pulmonary diseases is a lot higher in post-covid sufferers of all ages. Neurological damage is far more common. We're going to be sweeping up the debris from this for decades.
And thanks to the massive and relentless hospitalisations we've seen, ambulance delays and other hospital appointment delays have been huge and will remain huge going forwards. Unless or until we give big increases in resources to hospitals and sort out filtration in shared areas nationwide (we're missing the window on this for a third summer in succession).
Meanwhile, the decision to only give spring boosters to 75+ is now coming back to bite us on the arse:
(To bring it around to the need to have vax rollout to younger ages)
Do you really trust the way that data was recorded?
The people recording it were largely under enormous pressure to justify measures that have been proven to have some truly awful consequences. As far as I know, nobody is seriously contemplating re-introducing these measures, such were their effects.
What, the ONS? Seriously?
The ONS survey has been running for two years now, and is the gold standard for surveillance. The people in the ONS had and have nothing to do with decision-making for restrictions or lack of them.
And yes, we know restrictions were unpleasant. Rampant covid with minimal immunity around was even more unpleasant, as was its effects. No-one's seriously considering reintroducing these measures, because the effect of our immunity colossally reduces the impacts of covid.
Whilst 13,400 children lost a parent to covid before the immunity had been built up, far fewer will do so going forwards.
(Except in China, where they've seriously fouled up on vax rollout. Comparing Omicron surges in Hong Kong and New Zealand:
The remark is really quite funny, because it's so obvious that the only "pressure" that could conceivably be being exerted would be in precisely the opposite direction - to minimise the level of infection - in order to fit in with the government's political narrative.
There’s nothing sad about seeing the end of the most disgusting corrupt PM in living memory.
Wouldn't choose exactly those words but certainly the worst in my lifetime {Atlee onwards, since you ask}.
Interesting and serious follow-up question- who would be the second worst? Off the cuff I'd suggest Eden, but I'd need to think about it.
Eden certainly made one catastrophic error of judgement which led to the country being humiliated, but I don't know enough about his Premiership more generally to say where he ranks. I'd think Theresa May was quite competitive with him.
Eden and Cameron have more in common. Eden was a v successful FS and effectively Deputy PM for some years.
They are both near bottom though because of disastrous judgements.
Post war, you’d want to suggest something like;
1. Thatcher 2. Attlee 3. Blair 4. MacMillan 5. Wilson / Heath / Major 6. Brown / Callaghan / May 7. Cameron / Eden 8. Johnson
I have not bothered to rank ADH.
Hmmm:
The measure of a PM is performing well in difficult times. Blair had a golden legacy that flatters his performance. (Macmillan is flattered for the same reasons.) Eden was much worse than Cameron, and I would posit Johnson.
PMs that had really difficult problems to solve and performed well:
Thatcher (numerous) Major (the 1992 recession, Northern Ireland) Attlee (post war reconstruction) Cameron (GFC fallout)
And I think you have to say that Johnson performed no worse than peers (and in some ways better) over covid, and he did (sadly via lying) actually get Brexit enacted.
There’s nothing sad about seeing the end of the most disgusting corrupt PM in living memory.
Wouldn't choose exactly those words but certainly the worst in my lifetime {Atlee onwards, since you ask}.
Interesting and serious follow-up question- who would be the second worst? Off the cuff I'd suggest Eden, but I'd need to think about it.
Eden certainly made one catastrophic error of judgement which led to the country being humiliated, but I don't know enough about his Premiership more generally to say where he ranks. I'd think Theresa May was quite competitive with him.
Eden and Cameron have more in common. Eden was a v successful FS and effectively Deputy PM for some years.
They are both near bottom though because of disastrous judgements.
Post war, you’d want to suggest something like;
1. Thatcher 2. Attlee 3. Blair 4. MacMillan 5. Wilson / Heath / Major 6. Brown / Callaghan / May 7. Cameron / Eden 8. Johnson
I have not bothered to rank ADH.
Serious question, where would you put peace time Churchill in that list?
Sadly way down. he was past his peak by a long way.
Oh I agree. Though I am not sure that by Gardenwalker's standards he made any of the really big individual mistakes during his second Premiership that GW ascribes to Cameron and Eden. Nor was he, even at his worst, as fundamentally dishonest, lazy and ignorant as Johnson.
I would probably put him in with Heath and Major and promote Wilson up alongside Supermac.
The only way this vice like grip on the job from someone like Bojo nakes sense is if there's a worse personal consequence to him from leaving now than what he's enduring. I shudder to think what that might be.
If Zahawi survived as Chancellor to the next leader that would surely go down as one of the most impressive examples of naked ambition through shameless bootstrapping.
Wouldn't such a call need to be ratified by parliament?
Not anymore . Only the Queen now can refuse to stop the mad man .
Would he really do it without Cabinet approval though?
In theory could the cabinet/party immediately support a different person and get to the Queen first? So she sacks BJ ?
Whacky Races up the M4 to get to Windsor first.....
They'll have to stop the pigeon.
Queenie is entitled to see Johnson, accept his request for dissolution and say she will reflect on it and take soundings of advisors and get back to him.
I know that this can annoy some people but just on this occasion could you all keep up the relevant tweets from political hacks? It's hard to spot the relevant ones even with about 10 tabs open
In the space of 24 hours Zahawi has got himself into the second biggest job in government, and is now telling the PM to go so triggering a leadership challenge with him starting it as Chancellor.
Like a script from House of Cards.
It is truly the most insane plot thread so far.
Tim Shipman did point this out on twitter yesterday when everyone was saying Zahawi is mad.
I am sure someone here yesterday called Zahawi 'the emerging serious candidate' compared to 'flaky' Mordaunt.
There’s nothing sad about seeing the end of the most disgusting corrupt PM in living memory.
Wouldn't choose exactly those words but certainly the worst in my lifetime {Atlee onwards, since you ask}.
Interesting and serious follow-up question- who would be the second worst? Off the cuff I'd suggest Eden, but I'd need to think about it.
Eden certainly made one catastrophic error of judgement which led to the country being humiliated, but I don't know enough about his Premiership more generally to say where he ranks. I'd think Theresa May was quite competitive with him.
Eden and Cameron have more in common. Eden was a v successful FS and effectively Deputy PM for some years.
They are both near bottom though because of disastrous judgements.
Post war, you’d want to suggest something like;
1. Thatcher 2. Attlee 3. Blair 4. MacMillan 5. Wilson / Heath / Major 6. Brown / Callaghan / May 7. Cameron / Eden 8. Johnson
I have not bothered to rank ADH.
Serious question, where would you put peace time Churchill in that list?
Sorry, yes, =5.
“Moderately consequential”.
Seems spot on to me. Though as I said I think I would move Wilson up a spot alongside Macmillan.
If Zahawi survived as Chancellor to the next leader that would surely go down as one of the most impressive examples of naked ambition through shameless bootstrapping.
I want him to resign. Before 10pm. Chancellor for less than 24 hours would make him a permanent fixture in the political history books.
If Zahawi survived as Chancellor to the next leader that would surely go down as one of the most impressive examples of naked ambition through shameless bootstrapping.
There’s nothing sad about seeing the end of the most disgusting corrupt PM in living memory.
Wouldn't choose exactly those words but certainly the worst in my lifetime {Atlee onwards, since you ask}.
Interesting and serious follow-up question- who would be the second worst? Off the cuff I'd suggest Eden, but I'd need to think about it.
Eden certainly made one catastrophic error of judgement which led to the country being humiliated, but I don't know enough about his Premiership more generally to say where he ranks. I'd think Theresa May was quite competitive with him.
Eden and Cameron have more in common. Eden was a v successful FS and effectively Deputy PM for some years.
They are both near bottom though because of disastrous judgements.
Post war, you’d want to suggest something like;
1. Thatcher 2. Attlee 3. Blair 4. MacMillan 5. Wilson / Heath / Major 6. Brown / Callaghan / May 7. Cameron / Eden 8. Johnson
I have not bothered to rank ADH.
Hmmm:
The measure of a PM is performing well in difficult times. Blair had a golden legacy that flatters his performance. (Macmillan is flattered for the same reasons.) Eden was much worse than Cameron, and I would posit Johnson.
PMs that had really difficult problems to solve and performed well:
Thatcher (numerous) Major (the 1992 recession, Northern Ireland) Attlee (post war reconstruction) Cameron (GFC fallout)
And I think you have to say that Johnson performed no worse than peers (and in some ways better) over covid, and he did (sadly via lying) actually get Brexit enacted.
Johnson is hard to rate; after all he won an election (many didn’t) and oversaw Brexit which of course is a big deal.
However the man is obviously is clearly the most inept and dishonest holder of the PM office in that list, and for this reason - and indeed the nature of his departure - he is downweighted to bottom.
If Zahawi survived as Chancellor to the next leader that would surely go down as one of the most impressive examples of naked ambition through shameless bootstrapping.
Not sure the members will see it as impressive bootstrapping though.
His predecessor will get the credit for doing the right thing.
How do they reconcile their different constituencies?
And how the hell do they persuade us to trust all these MPs and a new leader and Cabinet who up until recently were telling us to support the PM?
Yes. No one else has the sheer chutzpah and bull to keep the coalition together. Penny is pretty though. So that ought to be enough, apparently.
I have one wish. That all those Tory MPs and supporters who cheered Boris on and supported him and inflicted him on us and told off those of us who warned from the start what a useless dangerous and unfit person he was now shut up for a considerable period and reflect on their appalling judgment and try and learn some lessons and not expect to be praised for - finally - doing something that should have been done some time ago by anyone with a shred of decency and intelligence.
We bloody told you so.
We bloody told Labour so about Corbyn too.
Perhaps the political parties could try finding someone with some basic integrity, humility and common-sense for a change instead of these arrogant uncivilised and malicious oafs they keep inflicting on us.
There was no appalling judgement.
Boris was the right person for the circumstances. We needed someone who could get us out of the quagmire of Article 50 and to get Brexit done. Boris was the only appropriate person to do that.
If Boris is bad, then what does it say about the likes of Corbyn, Grieve, May, Hunt, Starmer and Swinson etc that Boris was the best person leftover for the job?
The good thing about British politics though, unlike American politics, is that our leaders are not Presidents and are not elected dictators. Just as they can be put into power, they can also be removed from it. The circumstances that existed in 2019 that made Boris appropriate are done and dusted, they're no longer there. Boris's advantages have gone, his disadvantages are magnified, and so he's outlasted his welcome.
Its time for him to go. Just because the alternatives in 2019 were worse, doesn't mean that he's good enough for 2022. The circumstances have moved on and he has to go.
He always was completely inappropriate. You are just clutching at your Brexit straw. People like you are the reason the country is in this fucked up mess. Sorry to spoil your day, Barty, but you have no judgement. Anyone who ever thought a lying philandering lazy fat incompetent oaf like Johnson was suitable for our highest position in the land has no judgement, or at the very kindest assessment has a massive blind spot. There were other people who could have pretended to believe in Brexit who would have stood a chance of delivering it. Even Gove was a better prospect; a complete tosser but at least he is competent.
Talking of f8cked up messes, checked out the mighty euro in the currency markets recently?
What-aboutism ain't gonna keep the pound afloat. Nor Boris Johnson.
If Zahawi survived as Chancellor to the next leader that would surely go down as one of the most impressive examples of naked ambition through shameless bootstrapping.
I want him to resign. Before 10pm. Chancellor for less than 24 hours would make him a permanent fixture in the political history books.
Calculating his next pay cheque would be challenging. Is he an idiot or tactical genius?
At what stage does the actual business of government cease to function? There must be hundreds of cancelled meetings and postponed decisions already?
This is the thing - are there now enough MP's in the 'loyal' pool to actually replace these junior Ministers, regardless of competency? If not, can the Government function?
You could probably get by with far fewer ministers of state, but thatd look bad.
It seems to me that the only way the party can stop Johnson calling a GE is to nominate a new leader that can form a government in the near future. I don't see that happening, honestly. It will take them months.
This is absolutely astonishing . Never seen anything like this in my life .
A lot of people are going to sell a lot of books writing this up.
Not Johnson. He won't sell shit.
I think he will...
Political books often sell very poorly. Even the explosive revelation of Currie's affair with John Major didn't lead to sales. Once it was serialised that was it.
I may be wrong but I'm not sure many people will buy up the account of a serial liar.
Wouldn't such a call need to be ratified by parliament?
Not anymore . Only the Queen now can refuse to stop the mad man .
Would he really do it without Cabinet approval though?
In theory could the cabinet/party immediately support a different person and get to the Queen first? So she sacks BJ ?
Whacky Races up the M4 to get to Windsor first.....
They'll have to stop the pigeon.
Queenie is entitled to see Johnson, accept his request for dissolution and say she will reflect on it and take soundings of advisors and get back to him.
It seems to me that the only way the party can stop Johnson calling a GE is to nominate a new leader that can form a government in the near future. I don't see that happening, honestly. It will take them months.
Johnson is in quite a strong position.
They don't have to elect a Tory Party leader, they can nominate a caretaker.
Until Keir Starmer mentioned the fact at PMQs, I'd not known Terrence Higgins (of Trust fame) worked for Hansard.
Starmer made quite a claim at the beginning of PMQs: something like Labour working with the THT to end HIV by 2030. I might have misremembered it, but it did sound a little like Canute and the tide.
If Zahawi survived as Chancellor to the next leader that would surely go down as one of the most impressive examples of naked ambition through shameless bootstrapping.
Not half as impressive as if he ends up as leader!
There’s nothing sad about seeing the end of the most disgusting corrupt PM in living memory.
Wouldn't choose exactly those words but certainly the worst in my lifetime {Atlee onwards, since you ask}.
Interesting and serious follow-up question- who would be the second worst? Off the cuff I'd suggest Eden, but I'd need to think about it.
Eden certainly made one catastrophic error of judgement which led to the country being humiliated, but I don't know enough about his Premiership more generally to say where he ranks. I'd think Theresa May was quite competitive with him.
Eden and Cameron have more in common. Eden was a v successful FS and effectively Deputy PM for some years.
They are both near bottom though because of disastrous judgements.
Post war, you’d want to suggest something like;
1. Thatcher 2. Attlee 3. Blair 4. MacMillan 5. Wilson / Heath / Major 6. Brown / Callaghan / May 7. Cameron / Eden 8. Johnson
I have not bothered to rank ADH.
Serious question, where would you put peace time Churchill in that list?
Sorry, yes, =5.
“Moderately consequential”.
Chief success of Churchill's post-war premiership, was keeping Sir Anthony Eden from becoming PM long before he did.
Maybe it's just me but do we need all these junior Ministers no-one has ever heard of. What the fuck have they been doing all this time? What is the point of them?
Aren't they the political equivalent of all those middle managers firms suddenly realised they didn't need during Covid and WFH?
Nah, with all respect to the excellent Cyclefree, that's a cheap shot. There is a huge amount of Government activity that someone needs to do which the junior Ministers keep on the road. It simply isn't practical for the Secretary of State to monitor whether, to take a random example, the current regulations on turbines in the North Sea reflect the latest research or there is a compelling case for revising them. The test of Ministers isn't whether they get reported in the broadsheets (let alone the tabloids) and whether we have heard of them.
Fair enough. But I would like to hear what they are doing and why. It would increase my respect for them. Whereas I had assumed, cynically enough, that all these jobs were there for patronage reasons rather than because they were doing something useful.
Comments
Surely that would be neither Boris nor SKS due to numbers and therefore would have to be a Tory anyway.
Point being that calling an election doesn’t help him?
"That's true about you isn't it. You're not going to learn any lessons and you're not going to change are you."
Knife to the heart.
"We know who he is."
"Yes, it's you."
I knew we were watching some sort of wacky political theatre production penned by a deranged playwright when Huw Merriman sent in his letter of no confidence while interviewing the prime minister in the committee. Now this.
PM is not denying he said “all the sex pests are supporting me”. This is painful
“Moderately consequential”.
We do not yet know if the Queen will apply the Lascelles principles to reject a request for a GE, but we all have opinions on the question.
Not Johnson. He won't sell shit.
It looks like I was flattering him.
The Queen - under advisement - would not let Boris exercise what presents as an unsupported election.
Unprecedented for the PM to need sacking rather than resign though.
"He resigned because you lied to him."
The measure of a PM is performing well in difficult times. Blair had a golden legacy that flatters his performance. (Macmillan is flattered for the same reasons.) Eden was much worse than Cameron, and I would posit Johnson.
PMs that had really difficult problems to solve and performed well:
Thatcher (numerous)
Major (the 1992 recession, Northern Ireland)
Attlee (post war reconstruction)
Cameron (GFC fallout)
And I think you have to say that Johnson performed no worse than peers (and in some ways better) over covid, and he did (sadly via lying) actually get Brexit enacted.
No
I would probably put him in with Heath and Major and promote Wilson up alongside Supermac.
Of course, this being today, she is already out of date because almost while she was speaking the tally has grown to 33!
This is endgame.
Doubt it tho
However the man is obviously is clearly the most inept and dishonest holder of the PM office in that list, and for this reason - and indeed the nature of his departure - he is downweighted to bottom.
His predecessor will get the credit for doing the right thing.
Kate Lister
@k8_lister
CAN WE GET SOME AGENCY WORKERS IN???? #ToryResignations
I think if Boris dissolves Parliament and goes for election, that might be his last ditch attempt to save himself
It seems to me that the only way the party can stop Johnson calling a GE is to nominate a new leader that can form a government in the near future. I don't see that happening, honestly. It will take them months.
Johnson is in quite a strong position.
I may be wrong but I'm not sure many people will buy up the account of a serial liar.
NEW THREAD
Henry Zeffman
@hzeffman
A contact gets in touch 😂
https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/1544708309466374144
Must be traumatic watching the boss collapse like this.
Is anyone still claiming BlowJo will carry on regardless?
With the Tories, all things are possible ...
However that was before he made a serious misjudgment taking the CoE role. That, and now his absurd about-turn, make him a laughing stock.
Delegation to this thread saying it should go now!
I doubt he is upset; He is simply awaiting new orders. I’m not sure he does “emotion”.