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Rishi now joint favourite to succeed Johnson as PM – politicalbetting.com

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    Carnyx said:

    Has nobody done one of those Hitler downfall parody videos yet?

    Not allowed any more, AIUI. Alas.
    Did I miss something?
    Some years back, on the grounds of copyright infringement, apparently, on Youtube and Facebook. This report is pleasantly self-referential up its own botty, like the arguments on PB on occasion ...

    https://knowyourmeme.com/videos/217113-hitlers-downfall-parodies
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    edited July 2022

    Has nobody done one of those Hitler downfall parody videos yet?

    Didn't that stop a while ago (as in no longer able to access the location to do it?)
    Copyright issue? Or some nonsense about it involving Hitler / Nazis?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Been pondering. This is a potential mechanism for fast exorcism of Boris Corbyn.

    1. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: the rebels are now a majority of the PCP. In a hypothetical vonc you would lose by a clear margin.

    2. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: there will be an election to the 22. Because the rebels are a majority of the PCP, only pro-rule change candidates stand a chance of winning that 22 election. Therefore it is inevitable that there will be rule change to allow another vonc.

    3. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: Go now, and resign in honour. Or you are certain to be removed by the 22 in dishonour via vonc before the recess.
  • Beibheirli_CBeibheirli_C Posts: 8,163

    Carnyx said:

    Has nobody done one of those Hitler downfall parody videos yet?

    Not allowed any more, AIUI. Alas.
    Did I miss something?
    Copyright enforcement
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    Scott_xP said:

    Source on 1922 exec tells me fear after PMQs is that Boris Johnson is willing to “tear the party apart”.

    1922 meeting at 4pm is intended to be a discussion about changing rules to allow 2nd confidence vote, with decision taken at later meeting. But poss it could all move fast.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1544666463776161794

    Why don’t they just change the rules to what they used to be. If the cigar chompers in the committee room say it is over, it is over.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    Dura_Ace said:

    I am going away for a while but I feel compelled to point out that it is not a soft cock flounce. I am going to Cairo to do an Arabic teaching course. You will be untroubled by photos of my breakfast from Umm al-Dunya.

    Happy traveling

    Tho I seem to remember you saying about three weeks ago “I have done my travelling and I have no fucking intention of fucking going fucking anywhere ever a-fucking-gain”

    I may have missed an expletive
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Scott_xP said:

    Source on 1922 exec tells me fear after PMQs is that Boris Johnson is willing to “tear the party apart”.

    1922 meeting at 4pm is intended to be a discussion about changing rules to allow 2nd confidence vote, with decision taken at later meeting. But poss it could all move fast.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1544666463776161794

    Didn't they see what Bozo did in 2019... He will be more than happy to destroy the Tory party if it allows him to remain in No 10 for another hour...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    GIN1138 said:

    SKS was very good today wasn't he?

    Gotta say this week he has pretty much won me round (more of less accepting Brexit, supporting NATO expansion and totally eviscerating Johnson)

    Labour for me at next available opportunity I think - Tories need a period in opposition to sort themselves out.

    Still a couple of years to do the job under a new leader.

    Moving on from Boris is going to feel like a change of Government.

    Again.

    2010: Labour to Con/LD coalition

    2015: Con/LD coalition to Con majority - Cameron

    2017: Con majority to Con/DUP informal coalition - May

    2019: Con/DUP informal coalition to Con majority - Boris

  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    Dura_Ace said:

    I am going away for a while but I feel compelled to point out that it is not a soft cock flounce. I am going to Cairo to do an Arabic teaching course. You will be untroubled by photos of my breakfast from Umm al-Dunya.

    :smiley:

    Have fun

    xx
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,913

    Taz said:

    _

    Andy_JS said:

    Wind energy is 100% green.

    No it isn't. Wind turbines have to be manufactured (from steel?), using a lot of dirty, carbon belching processes, then shipped over (probably) from their country of manufacture, then installed, then at the end of their life, decommissioned. Leaving carbon aside (not the only measure of green) they also have an impact on fauna (bird life) and the landscape. So it's nowhere near that simple.
    Predominantly steel but a fair bit of Resin/Plastic too. The Just Stop Oil Loons seem to forget oil also produces products other than much needed fossil fuels.
    Of course Wind Energy is 100% green., the wind blows and energy is extracted from it.
    Producing the wind turbines isn't, but then neither is getting the oil out of the ground and transporting it across the world in supertankers (affecting wildlife when they spill) or pipelines and refining it. Then moving it around the country in tankers.
    Nobody has argued that the accompanying processes of oil are environmentally friendly; that doesn't make those accompanying wind power any better.
    But does anybody argue that getting our energy from fossil fuels is no worse for the planet than using renewables?
    There are negatives for any policy, but some negatives are hugely worse than others.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,828
    Scott_xP said:

    Source on 1922 exec tells me fear after PMQs is that Boris Johnson is willing to “tear the party apart”.

    1922 meeting at 4pm is intended to be a discussion about changing rules to allow 2nd confidence vote, with decision taken at later meeting. But poss it could all move fast.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1544666463776161794

    Surely he can't simultaneously call an election and deselect everyone.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Has nobody done one of those Hitler downfall parody videos yet?

    Didn't that stop a while ago (as in no longer able to access the location to do it?)
    The site that was doing them, one guy, got a copyright action from the movie studio, which in theory he would have won, but had no ability to defend.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,747
    If I were Gove and wanted to be a bit naughty, I’d wait until 3.15pm and BJ safely in his chair with the Liaison Commitee. And then give a speech in the sun outside Parliament delivering the fatal blow. Like when the army undertake a coup while the dear leader is overseas.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Been pondering. This is a potential mechanism for fast exorcism of Boris Corbyn.

    1. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: the rebels are now a majority of the PCP. In a hypothetical vonc you would lose by a clear margin.

    2. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: there will be an election to the 22. Because the rebels are a majority of the PCP, only pro-rule change candidates stand a chance of winning that 22 election. Therefore it is inevitable that there will be rule change to allow another vonc.

    3. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: Go now, and resign in honour. Or you are certain to be removed by the 22 in dishonour via vonc before the recess.

    And if he goes to the Palace?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    edited July 2022
    Sandpit said:

    Has nobody done one of those Hitler downfall parody videos yet?

    Didn't that stop a while ago (as in no longer able to access the location to do it?)
    The site that was doing them, one guy, got a copyright action from the movie studio, which in theory he would have won, but had no ability to defend.
    I was going to say surely it could be argued that it was transformative, which is protected from copyright claims in places like the US.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,874
    Leon said:

    Insane restaurant view over the entire Bay of Kotor. Photo doesn’t really capture it. I can see 100 miles



    Glad to see you're on PB on the laptop.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,434
    Cookie said:

    ajb said:

    The big question now is whether the Torys have to end their run of "worst prime minister" at only 3. I reckon they could make it to 4 - certainly if they go for Priti or Nadine.

    I was reminiscing with something approaching fondness the quiet dignity of Theresa May earlier today.
    Theresa May earns her place in the pantheon of ‘worst PMs of my life’ for one reason and one reason alone: the failure to win a majority against Jeremy Corbyn. Every failure of hers stemmed from that. I’d suggest almost anyone would have struggled as much as she did from 2017 onwards, and most would have struggled more.
    And her failure to win against Jeremy Corbyn was the result of many factors, but I’d suggest a big one was the Dementia Tax, which was a notable attempt to introduce an actual solution to the problem of adult social care which wasn’t either a) just putting it off, or b) extracting yet more from the working age population. It may not have been popular, but no-one’s yet made any better ideas work.
    So I retain some sympathy for her.
    The unnecessarily election was one blunder. The failure to prepare seriously for a no deal was the other. To have been able to walk away and do WTO was vital to getting an acceptable deal. Her and 'spreadsheet Phil' buggered it up. Boris didn't do any better mind.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565

    Been pondering. This is a potential mechanism for fast exorcism of Boris Corbyn.

    1. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: the rebels are now a majority of the PCP. In a hypothetical vonc you would lose by a clear margin.

    2. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: there will be an election to the 22. Because the rebels are a majority of the PCP, only pro-rule change candidates stand a chance of winning that 22 election. Therefore it is inevitable that there will be rule change to allow another vonc.

    3. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: Go now, and resign in honour. Or you are certain to be removed by the 22 in dishonour via vonc before the recess.

    4. Boris: blah blah blah General Election blah blah blah

    5. Brady: blah blah blah rule change within the hour blah blah blah VONC at 6pm blah blah blah.....
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Been pondering. This is a potential mechanism for fast exorcism of Boris Corbyn.

    1. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: the rebels are now a majority of the PCP. In a hypothetical vonc you would lose by a clear margin.

    2. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: there will be an election to the 22. Because the rebels are a majority of the PCP, only pro-rule change candidates stand a chance of winning that 22 election. Therefore it is inevitable that there will be rule change to allow another vonc.

    3. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: Go now, and resign in honour. Or you are certain to be removed by the 22 in dishonour via vonc before the recess.

    Counter argument

    Bojo is a liar

    He thinks everyone else is a liar

    He says to Brady: I don't believe you

    Brady has no comeback to that because letters are confidential

    Boris takes it down to the wire in the hope something will turn up
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    Scott_xP said:

    Source on 1922 exec tells me fear after PMQs is that Boris Johnson is willing to “tear the party apart”.

    1922 meeting at 4pm is intended to be a discussion about changing rules to allow 2nd confidence vote, with decision taken at later meeting. But poss it could all move fast.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1544666463776161794

    Surely he can't simultaneously call an election and deselect everyone.
    There's a distinct possibility of competing pro and anti Boris Tories in that scenario.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    biggles said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    biggles said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Sweden and Finland NATO accession ratification being fast-tracked through Parliament, before the recess.

    Wonder how Magic Grandpa will vote...
    Lammy says Labour will be supporting, as well as supporting the 2.5% target (up from 2%) of GDP on defence spending.

    The few Russophiles still left in Parliament exposing themselves will be worth documenting. Yes, Magic Grandpa will be one of them.
    No reversal of Brexit. No Single Market. No Customs Union. A boost to defence spending. The left are going to hate the next Labour Government quite quickly, and call them Tories aren’t they?
    Giving the MoD more money is the same as burning it. Total waste. They should cut it to 1.5% and finally force some hard choices.
    I find the attachment to a fixed percentage of GDP silly anyway. Do those in favour want to cut defence in a recession? I suspect not. As with anything, you decide what you want to achieve, check if you can afford it, and go from there. Like health, defence is a potential bottomless pit without a clear strategy.
    What needs to happen now, is a move from innovation to production.

    There’s an imminent threat, and we need to see increased manufacturing of current-generation weapons, and get them on the ground in Ukraine.

    LOL, Corbyn on his feet in the Commons, asking why we’re not trying to negotiate a ceasefire in Ukraine.
    Really? I'd love to hear what he's said.
    Parliamentlive.tv.
    Go to the House of Commons session, and the video comes up. Rewind to 13:21.
    Thanks. I've just listened to that. He's clueless. Or that's giving him the benefit of the doubt: he's intelligent enough to know that what he's calling for is all to Russia's advantage, and not Ukraine's.
    Yes, it’s “I condemn the invasion, but shouldn’t we just let them keep what they stole?”
    He is as thick as a fecking plank. It'll take me a while to forgive the idiots that gave us Boris Johnson, the most amoral person in parliament, but Boris Johnson was essentially facilitated by the complete fuckwits in the Labour Party that thought it was a good idea to make the most stupid man in parliament a candidate for LoTO
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,286

    GIN1138 said:

    SKS was very good today wasn't he?

    Gotta say this week he has pretty much won me round (more of less accepting Brexit, supporting NATO expansion and totally eviscerating Johnson)

    Labour for me at next available opportunity I think - Tories need a period in opposition to sort themselves out.

    Still a couple of years to do the job under a new leader.

    Moving on from Boris is going to feel like a change of Government.

    Again.

    2010: Labour to Con/LD coalition

    2015: Con/LD coalition to Con majority - Cameron

    2017: Con majority to Con/DUP informal coalition - May

    2019: Con/DUP informal coalition to Con majority - Boris

    I don't know... I just feel like the Conservatives need a period in Opposition to get their act together. Maybe the new leader will be able to move things on but they're going to have a LOT of work to do to sort out this complete shambles.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    Scott_xP said:

    Source on 1922 exec tells me fear after PMQs is that Boris Johnson is willing to “tear the party apart”.

    1922 meeting at 4pm is intended to be a discussion about changing rules to allow 2nd confidence vote, with decision taken at later meeting. But poss it could all move fast.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1544666463776161794

    Well if he loses a vonc he is out surely, so this is simply fantasy?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    @robfordmancs Alternatively, I suppose Johnson can be impeached? The mechanism may still exist. Indeed, the then-MP for Henley proposed using it on the then-PM in the 2000s.
    https://twitter.com/lewis_baston/status/1544666534634815489
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    edited July 2022
    eek said:

    If anyone has 5 minutes to kill try https://neal.fun/absurd-trolley-problems/

    I killed 54 people ..

    Like that 87% of people say kill the protestors.
    But only 88% say kill someone vs their Amazon package delivery. I assume there’s a fair amount of satire in the responses.
    86% say take out robots rather than humans.
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758

    dixiedean said:

    All you need is Gove. Will He get there before old lady Brady?
    Gone gone gone.
    It is done.

    It was Othello yesterday.
    Macbeth today.

    "If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well / It were done quickly."

    FFS. Get on with it.
    Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps in this petty pace till the last syllable of recorded time. And all our yesterdays have lighted fools the way to dusty death. Out! Out! Brief candle
    I raise you "Man, proud man, dressed in a little brief authority, like an angry ape, play such fantastic tricks before high heaven as make the angels weep"
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Leon said:

    Insane restaurant view over the entire Bay of Kotor. Photo doesn’t really capture it. I can see 100 miles



    Fuck it, reminds me how wonderful travelling can be.

    I'm going to look into that self-promised trip to Madagascar.....
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,358

    Scott_xP said:

    Source on 1922 exec tells me fear after PMQs is that Boris Johnson is willing to “tear the party apart”.

    1922 meeting at 4pm is intended to be a discussion about changing rules to allow 2nd confidence vote, with decision taken at later meeting. But poss it could all move fast.

    https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1544666463776161794

    Surely he can't simultaneously call an election and deselect everyone.
    No. It's over. If he does think this, it's on a par with Hitler thinking that Steiner could drive back the Red Army from Berlin.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    Cobblestones on the stage in Tour de France this afternoon....should be fun.
  • HeathenerHeathener Posts: 7,084
    You probably all know this but a very good 3 minute summary by Sam Coates of Sky of where we are at and could be headed in the next hours:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1544665241463701506
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    IshmaelZ said:

    Been pondering. This is a potential mechanism for fast exorcism of Boris Corbyn.

    1. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: the rebels are now a majority of the PCP. In a hypothetical vonc you would lose by a clear margin.

    2. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: there will be an election to the 22. Because the rebels are a majority of the PCP, only pro-rule change candidates stand a chance of winning that 22 election. Therefore it is inevitable that there will be rule change to allow another vonc.

    3. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: Go now, and resign in honour. Or you are certain to be removed by the 22 in dishonour via vonc before the recess.

    Counter argument

    Bojo is a liar

    He thinks everyone else is a liar

    He says to Brady: I don't believe you

    Brady has no comeback to that because letters are confidential

    Boris takes it down to the wire in the hope something will turn up
    Presumably in that the scenario, the rebels could simply go public - make themselves known, so everyone could count the heads...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Senior Tory MPs are saying that Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, is telling PM the game is up
    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1544669353575976960
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901

    Been pondering. This is a potential mechanism for fast exorcism of Boris Corbyn.

    1. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: the rebels are now a majority of the PCP. In a hypothetical vonc you would lose by a clear margin.

    2. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: there will be an election to the 22. Because the rebels are a majority of the PCP, only pro-rule change candidates stand a chance of winning that 22 election. Therefore it is inevitable that there will be rule change to allow another vonc.

    3. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: Go now, and resign in honour. Or you are certain to be removed by the 22 in dishonour via vonc before the recess.

    Whilst I agree with your three scenarios, I did wince about "Boris Corbyn". I know he is a deluded old fool who accidentally associates with so many anti-semites, but associating him with the Prime Minister is a low blow.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    SKS was very good today wasn't he?

    Gotta say this week he has pretty much won me round (more of less accepting Brexit, supporting NATO expansion and totally eviscerating Johnson)

    Labour for me at next available opportunity I think - Tories need a period in opposition to sort themselves out.

    Still a couple of years to do the job under a new leader.

    Moving on from Boris is going to feel like a change of Government.

    Again.

    2010: Labour to Con/LD coalition

    2015: Con/LD coalition to Con majority - Cameron

    2017: Con majority to Con/DUP informal coalition - May

    2019: Con/DUP informal coalition to Con majority - Boris

    I don't know... I just feel like the Conservatives need a period in Opposition to get their act together. Maybe the new leader will be able to move things on but they're going to have a LOT of work to do to sort out this complete shambles.
    Oh, no doubt. But they may have a significant amount of goodwill to get on with the process.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Dura_Ace said:

    I am going away for a while but I feel compelled to point out that it is not a soft cock flounce. I am going to Cairo to do an Arabic teaching course. You will be untroubled by photos of my breakfast from Umm al-Dunya.

    Decent cover story.

  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,361
    Cookie said:

    ajb said:

    The big question now is whether the Torys have to end their run of "worst prime minister" at only 3. I reckon they could make it to 4 - certainly if they go for Priti or Nadine.

    I was reminiscing with something approaching fondness the quiet dignity of Theresa May earlier today.
    Theresa May earns her place in the pantheon of ‘worst PMs of my life’ for one reason and one reason alone: the failure to win a majority against Jeremy Corbyn. Every failure of hers stemmed from that. I’d suggest almost anyone would have struggled as much as she did from 2017 onwards, and most would have struggled more.
    And her failure to win against Jeremy Corbyn was the result of many factors, but I’d suggest a big one was the Dementia Tax, which was a notable attempt to introduce an actual solution to the problem of adult social care which wasn’t either a) just putting it off, or b) extracting yet more from the working age population. It may not have been popular, but no-one’s yet made any better ideas work.
    So I retain some sympathy for her.
    The thing about the Dementia Tax is that it was sprung on the population during the election campaign, and there was little attempt to argue its merits, or prepare the ground, to convince people it was the best compromise available. In this it anticipated May's failure to win support for her Brexit deal, which she attempted to pass by saying that none other was possible, rather than by convincing people of its merits.

    The very basic task of a politician is to be able to convince people to support you, and May had no idea where to start with that requirement.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    Cookie said:

    ajb said:

    The big question now is whether the Torys have to end their run of "worst prime minister" at only 3. I reckon they could make it to 4 - certainly if they go for Priti or Nadine.

    I was reminiscing with something approaching fondness the quiet dignity of Theresa May earlier today.
    Theresa May earns her place in the pantheon of ‘worst PMs of my life’ for one reason and one reason alone: the failure to win a majority against Jeremy Corbyn. Every failure of hers stemmed from that. I’d suggest almost anyone would have struggled as much as she did from 2017 onwards, and most would have struggled more.
    And her failure to win against Jeremy Corbyn was the result of many factors, but I’d suggest a big one was the Dementia Tax, which was a notable attempt to introduce an actual solution to the problem of adult social care which wasn’t either a) just putting it off, or b) extracting yet more from the working age population. It may not have been popular, but no-one’s yet made any better ideas work.
    So I retain some sympathy for her.
    Also the Red Lines and Citizens of Nowhere. Colossal misjudgment which boxed us into a pretty dire Brexit

    For that alone - and it is quite sufficient - she is condemned to the lowest rank of PMs
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Speech from @sajidjavid a tough listen for many of us. Am told PM will get visit from apocryphal ‘men in grey suits’ this eve (tho depend on 1922 mtgs this pm). Knowing PM, he’ll fight hard whatever the numbers. For the Bloomberg take, get Readout at 5pm http://bloom.bg/readout
    https://twitter.com/AllegraStratton/status/1544669610531868673
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Scott_xP said:

    Zahawi's first day (maybe his last) in the job...

    NEW: pound drops beneath $1.19 vs US dollar for the first time since March 2020.

    BUT before anyone tries to attribute this to ongoing UK political chaos, this latest fall looks more like a story of dollar strength than sterling weakness.
    Still: we’re heading for v v low levels…
    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1544663569207377920/photo/1

    Pound is currently up against the Euro. So, Dollar strong, Euro weak is the current state of play.

    Once the Euro has fallen below parity with the Dollar the currency speculators will start looking for another target.
    Fact that UK pound has always been worth more than US dollar has always been source of envy and seen as an insult by right- (and wrong-) thinking, red- (and blue-) blooded Americans.

    For example, when Ugly Americans blindly following Rick Steves to the tourist traps of Olde Englande discover to their horror that the "bargains" they think they're getting are in actuality outrageous rip-offs when converted into real (or "true") money.

    By helping tank the pound, Boris Johnson is strengthening The Special Alliance!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Leon said:

    Insane restaurant view over the entire Bay of Kotor. Photo doesn’t really capture it. I can see 100 miles



    You must be on a very high mountain or attached to a weather balloon (curvature of the earth and all that - Max distance 3 miles on relatively flat land)
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,565
    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MPs are saying that Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, is telling PM the game is up
    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1544669353575976960

    Well, EVERY sentient being should be telling the PM the game is up.

    Because it is.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    IshmaelZ said:

    Been pondering. This is a potential mechanism for fast exorcism of Boris Corbyn.

    1. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: the rebels are now a majority of the PCP. In a hypothetical vonc you would lose by a clear margin.

    2. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: there will be an election to the 22. Because the rebels are a majority of the PCP, only pro-rule change candidates stand a chance of winning that 22 election. Therefore it is inevitable that there will be rule change to allow another vonc.

    3. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: Go now, and resign in honour. Or you are certain to be removed by the 22 in dishonour via vonc before the recess.

    Counter argument

    Bojo is a liar

    He thinks everyone else is a liar

    He says to Brady: I don't believe you

    Brady has no comeback to that because letters are confidential

    Boris takes it down to the wire in the hope something will turn up
    Presumably in that the scenario, the rebels could simply go public - make themselves known, so everyone could count the heads...
    Bit of a bell-the-cat issue. What happens if the Spartacuses suddenly dry up before the magicv number is reached? They'd need a mutually signed round robin.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    The '22 Committee - how much power does Mrs Brady have? Its abundantly clear that this crisis is both tearing the party apart and leaving the bloodied chunks of it a laughing stock.

    This is way beyond any factional bickering surely. Does he have the authority to say "fuck this" and change the rules so that an leadership election simply happens tomorrow?

    He will certainly have the support of his exec colleague who skewered the PM over his disgraceful comments about MPs in the Carlton Club?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    eek said:

    If anyone has 5 minutes to kill try https://neal.fun/absurd-trolley-problems/

    I killed 54 people ..

    67 for me. And it caused me to consider my choices on occasion. Why did I save my enemy? Why did I value youth over age, etc, etc.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Coutinho resigns
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990

    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MPs are saying that Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, is telling PM the game is up
    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1544669353575976960

    Well, EVERY sentient being should be telling the PM the game is up.

    Because it is.
    I wonder what Carrie is thinking...
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,431
    edited July 2022
    eek said:

    If anyone has 5 minutes to kill try https://neal.fun/absurd-trolley-problems/

    I killed 54 people ..

    55

    Now what pearls of wisdom have I missed?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Cyclefree said:

    No - not Rishi.

    Overrated.

    Is there anyone out of this shower that you rate ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    edited July 2022

    Leon said:

    Insane restaurant view over the entire Bay of Kotor. Photo doesn’t really capture it. I can see 100 miles



    Fuck it, reminds me how wonderful travelling can be.

    I'm going to look into that self-promised trip to Madagascar.....
    Full disclosure: the food is seriously mediocre up here at “Ristoran National Belveder” (as it is in most of Montenegro: the only major black mark against a wonderful destination) also the insect life is “vivid”

    But the view is STUPENDOUS, overlooking the entire Lovcen National Park and the whole of sublime Kotor Bay. I can practically see Puglia

    Madagascar is amazing, BTW: go if you ever can
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,592
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MPs are saying that Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, is telling PM the game is up
    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1544669353575976960

    Well, EVERY sentient being should be telling the PM the game is up.

    Because it is.
    I wonder what Carrie is thinking...
    If he resigns, I'll have to spend more time with him...
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    15% of the payroll vote has now resigned.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,635
    The Cool Britannia factor would make Penny Mordaunt a difficult opponent for Labour.

    image
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863

    Leon said:

    Insane restaurant view over the entire Bay of Kotor. Photo doesn’t really capture it. I can see 100 miles



    You must be on a very high mountain or attached to a weather balloon (curvature of the earth and all that - Max distance 3 miles on relatively flat land)
    He’d need to be at 6600 feet to have a horizon 100 miles away. Although the tops of big and distant mountains 100 miles away might be seen from somewhat lower.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    An old ally of @boris_johnson tells me the mood among Conservative MPs is turning against the PM rapidly and decisively. This person tells me: “It is moving very quickly. We have passed the tipping point.”

    This ally describes the tearoom after prime minister’s questions: “In the tearoom Nadine Dorries is sitting with a handful of loyalists. On every other Tory table MPs are plotting how to get rid of Boris Johnson. That includes ministers who haven’t resigned.”


    https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1544670867220795393
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MPs are saying that Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, is telling PM the game is up
    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1544669353575976960

    Well, EVERY sentient being should be telling the PM the game is up.

    Because it is.
    I wonder what Carrie is thinking...
    She is wondering what Rishi is like in bed maybe?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    dixiedean said:

    All you need is Gove. Will He get there before old lady Brady?
    Gone gone gone.
    It is done.

    It was Othello yesterday.
    Macbeth today.

    "If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well / It were done quickly."

    FFS. Get on with it.
    Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps in this petty pace till the last syllable of recorded time. And all our yesterdays have lighted fools the way to dusty death. Out! Out! Brief candle
    Correction - should read "THE creeps in this petty place"? The Bard being remarkable prescient.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    A point to be made. We now require him out, not resigning and staying in place whilst a leadership contest occurs. Hes not shitting the bed for a month on our tab nor 'scheming'. Fat cuckoo shoot required.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012

    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MPs are saying that Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, is telling PM the game is up
    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1544669353575976960

    Well, EVERY sentient being should be telling the PM the game is up.

    Because it is.
    But I just killed them all in the trolley problem....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    dixiedean said:

    Been pondering. This is a potential mechanism for fast exorcism of Boris Corbyn.

    1. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: the rebels are now a majority of the PCP. In a hypothetical vonc you would lose by a clear margin.

    2. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: there will be an election to the 22. Because the rebels are a majority of the PCP, only pro-rule change candidates stand a chance of winning that 22 election. Therefore it is inevitable that there will be rule change to allow another vonc.

    3. Brady Old Lady says to Boris: Go now, and resign in honour. Or you are certain to be removed by the 22 in dishonour via vonc before the recess.

    And if he goes to the Palace?
    Her Maj is currently indisposed.
    If you'd like to leave a contact number ?

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    IanB2 said:

    Coutinho resigns

    Can't blame him, living in Birmingham is really bad, I wonder who Villa will sell him to?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MPs are saying that Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, is telling PM the game is up
    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1544669353575976960

    Well, EVERY sentient being should be telling the PM the game is up.

    Because it is.
    I wonder what Carrie is thinking...
    She is wondering what Rishi is like in bed maybe?
    I doubt Rishi will be interesting in downgrading.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632
    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MPs are saying that Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, is telling PM the game is up
    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1544669353575976960

    Well, EVERY sentient being should be telling the PM the game is up.

    Because it is.
    I wonder what Carrie is thinking...
    'Well this sucks'
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    The Cool Britannia factor would make Penny Mordaunt a difficult opponent for Labour.

    image

    I'd probably vote for her just based on that photo. I am that shallow.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Scott_xP said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MPs are saying that Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, is telling PM the game is up
    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1544669353575976960

    Well, EVERY sentient being should be telling the PM the game is up.

    Because it is.
    I wonder what Carrie is thinking...
    She is wondering what Rishi is like in bed maybe?
    Back into the loving arms of tubby cuck Harry with her
  • NorthofStokeNorthofStoke Posts: 1,758
    Leon said:

    Cookie said:

    ajb said:

    The big question now is whether the Torys have to end their run of "worst prime minister" at only 3. I reckon they could make it to 4 - certainly if they go for Priti or Nadine.

    I was reminiscing with something approaching fondness the quiet dignity of Theresa May earlier today.
    Theresa May earns her place in the pantheon of ‘worst PMs of my life’ for one reason and one reason alone: the failure to win a majority against Jeremy Corbyn. Every failure of hers stemmed from that. I’d suggest almost anyone would have struggled as much as she did from 2017 onwards, and most would have struggled more.
    And her failure to win against Jeremy Corbyn was the result of many factors, but I’d suggest a big one was the Dementia Tax, which was a notable attempt to introduce an actual solution to the problem of adult social care which wasn’t either a) just putting it off, or b) extracting yet more from the working age population. It may not have been popular, but no-one’s yet made any better ideas work.
    So I retain some sympathy for her.
    Also the Red Lines and Citizens of Nowhere. Colossal misjudgment which boxed us into a pretty dire Brexit

    For that alone - and it is quite sufficient - she is condemned to the lowest rank of PMs
    The Citizens of Nowhere quote represents an intellectually respectable if pessimistic view of human cognition. The subsequent ersatz outrage shows the danger of politicians actually engaging with arguments rather than sticking to vacuous sound bites. Similar treatment to Maggie's "no such thing as society" which became totally distorted by her opponents. (It was an attack on reification.) I comment as a strong anti-Tory but it depresses me to see opportunistic and unprincipled attacks from any quarter.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838

    eek said:

    If anyone has 5 minutes to kill try https://neal.fun/absurd-trolley-problems/

    I killed 54 people ..

    67 for me. And it caused me to consider my choices on occasion. Why did I save my enemy? Why did I value youth over age, etc, etc.
    46 and one cat for me ...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,012
    Wow....van Aert just toppled on his bike, just missed crashing into a car.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,358
    eek said:

    If anyone has 5 minutes to kill try https://neal.fun/absurd-trolley-problems/

    I killed 54 people ..

    I killed 42 people and five lobsters.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402

    dixiedean said:

    All you need is Gove. Will He get there before old lady Brady?
    Gone gone gone.
    It is done.

    It was Othello yesterday.
    Macbeth today.

    "If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well / It were done quickly."

    FFS. Get on with it.
    Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps in this petty pace till the last syllable of recorded time. And all our yesterdays have lighted fools the way to dusty death. Out! Out! Brief candle
    I raise you "Man, proud man, dressed in a little brief authority, like an angry ape, play such fantastic tricks before high heaven as make the angels weep"
    "It is a tale
    Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
    Signifying nothing."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,358

    The '22 Committee - how much power does Mrs Brady have? Its abundantly clear that this crisis is both tearing the party apart and leaving the bloodied chunks of it a laughing stock.

    This is way beyond any factional bickering surely. Does he have the authority to say "fuck this" and change the rules so that an leadership election simply happens tomorrow?

    He will certainly have the support of his exec colleague who skewered the PM over his disgraceful comments about MPs in the Carlton Club?

    If they want him gone, (and they do) they'll find a way.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Wow....van Aert just toppled on his bike, just missed crashing into a car.

    Ok, at this point I disengage from PB for the afternoon because otherwise it'll spoil the race pre-highlights.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Has nobody done one of those Hitler downfall parody videos yet?

    Didn't that stop a while ago (as in no longer able to access the location to do it?)
    The site that was doing them, one guy, got a copyright action from the movie studio, which in theory he would have won, but had no ability to defend.
    I was going to say surely it could be argued that it was transformative, which is protected from copyright claims in places like the US.
    Yes, but there was no transformation of the actual work. It was totally unedited, apart from the subtitles. The copyright holder, with a million dollar legal budget, managed to shut them down.

    What would you do if it were your site, with maybe a few hundred dollars a month in advertising revenues from people accessing it directly, while the output from the site drove millions of dollars in advertising on other platforms?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103
    Dura_Ace said:

    I am going away for a while but I feel compelled to point out that it is not a soft cock flounce. I am going to Cairo to do an Arabic teaching course. You will be untroubled by photos of my breakfast from Umm al-Dunya.

    Ah - lunch pics then?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Sean_F said:

    eek said:

    If anyone has 5 minutes to kill try https://neal.fun/absurd-trolley-problems/

    I killed 54 people ..

    I killed 42 people and five lobsters.
    I deleted the pussy. Lobsters don't kill Mrs C's birds or shit in Mrs C's garden.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,288
    100 miles was a wild oratorical guess, but I’ll try and work out how far I can see. There are many mountains in the far distance but I am only at 2200 feet

    *checks map*

    Maybe 50 miles?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Heathener said:

    You probably all know this but a very good 3 minute summary by Sam Coates of Sky of where we are at and could be headed in the next hours:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1544665241463701506

    This year has the makings of a memorable Tour. Loved the brave van Aert win in yellow yesterday.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    kle4 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    I am going away for a while but I feel compelled to point out that it is not a soft cock flounce. I am going to Cairo to do an Arabic teaching course. You will be untroubled by photos of my breakfast from Umm al-Dunya.

    Ah - lunch pics then?
    And dinner. Please. Anything rather than the current chundercarpet that is Westminster.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,994

    The Cool Britannia factor would make Penny Mordaunt a difficult opponent for Labour.

    image

    I just wonder if Mordaunt actually wants it. She seems to shy away from making the big move. No indication yet that she would run.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,175
    Weekly deaths update:

    https://tinyurl.com/uhawawre

    Not posted this recently due to the bank holidays, but it's interesting that non-COVID deaths are running at around 1,000 more than the five-year average.

    Week-ending | 5-year average | COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths | non-COVID deaths in excess of the 5-year average

    01-Apr-22 | 9,672 | 853 | 8,987 | -685
    08-Apr-22 | 10,316 | 960 | 9,727 | -589
    15-Apr-22 | 10,591 | 1,003 | 8,916 | -1,675
    22-Apr-22 | 10,158 | 1,042 | 9,638 | -520
    29-Apr-22 | 10,278 | 1,125 | 11,316 | 1,038
    06-May-22 | 9,494 | 735 | 9,206 | -288
    13-May-22 | 9,840 | 719 | 11,329 | 1,489
    20-May-22 | 10,104 | 547 | 10,973 | 869
    27-May-22 | 9,864 | 410 | 10,450 | 586
    03-Jun-22 | 8,086 | 186 | 6,639 | -1,447
    10-Jun-22 | 9,989 | 284 | 11,458 | 1,469
    17-Jun-22 | 9,400 | 264 | 10,580 | 1,180
    24-Jun-22 | 9,296 | 285 | 10,551 | 1,255
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    ajb said:

    The big question now is whether the Torys have to end their run of "worst prime minister" at only 3. I reckon they could make it to 4 - certainly if they go for Priti or Nadine.

    I was reminiscing with something approaching fondness the quiet dignity of Theresa May earlier today.
    Theresa May earns her place in the pantheon of ‘worst PMs of my life’ for one reason and one reason alone: the failure to win a majority against Jeremy Corbyn. Every failure of hers stemmed from that. I’d suggest almost anyone would have struggled as much as she did from 2017 onwards, and most would have struggled more.
    And her failure to win against Jeremy Corbyn was the result of many factors, but I’d suggest a big one was the Dementia Tax, which was a notable attempt to introduce an actual solution to the problem of adult social care which wasn’t either a) just putting it off, or b) extracting yet more from the working age population. It may not have been popular, but no-one’s yet made any better ideas work.
    So I retain some sympathy for her.
    She was totally right, but bought the issue up suddenly in an election campaign, with the worst possible background and no prior kite-flying. It was immeditely disparaged and she never recovered.
    The one thing the Dementia / Death Tax did was kill off any chance of Teresa winning an overall majority. Big fundamental announcements like that need to be trailed in advance....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Scott_xP said:

    15% of the payroll vote has now resigned.

    I wonder whether there will now be a rush for the exit. It'd be a bummer if you wanted to be a virtue signalling resigner and Johnson beats you to it! You would forever be labelled a Johnson apologist
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,863
    Leon said:

    100 miles was a wild oratorical guess, but I’ll try and work out how far I can see. There are many mountains in the far distance but I am only at 2200 feet

    *checks map*

    Maybe 50 miles?

    So your horizon is theoretically 57 miles away, but it would be so hazy looking along so much ground that in practice something would need to be at a little altitude to be seen that far away.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    This thread has been resigned.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,632

    NEW THREAD

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Insane restaurant view over the entire Bay of Kotor. Photo doesn’t really capture it. I can see 100 miles



    Fuck it, reminds me how wonderful travelling can be.

    I'm going to look into that self-promised trip to Madagascar.....
    Full disclosure: the food is seriously mediocre up here at “Ristoran National Belveder” (as it is in most of Montenegro: the only major black mark against a wonderful destination) also the insect life is “vivid”

    But the view is STUPENDOUS, overlooking the entire Lovcen National Park and the whole of sublime Kotor Bay. I can practically see Puglia

    Madagascar is amazing, BTW: go if you ever can
    Clearly kind of restaurant that folks (esp. locals) go to for the atmosphere rather than the grub.

    Do you think it would be suitable for Boris & Carrie in exile? Does UK have extradition treaty with MNG?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773
    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1544669353575976960

    Senior Tory MPs are saying that Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, is telling PM the game is up
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    eek said:

    If anyone has 5 minutes to kill try https://neal.fun/absurd-trolley-problems/

    I killed 54 people ..

    55

    Now what pearls of wisdom have I missed?
    68. Always was a bastard.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Anyone seen Comical Ali, sorry HYUFD today? lols.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited July 2022
    dixiedean said:

    dixiedean said:

    All you need is Gove. Will He get there before old lady Brady?
    Gone gone gone.
    It is done.

    It was Othello yesterday.
    Macbeth today.

    "If it were done when 'tis done, then 'twere well / It were done quickly."

    FFS. Get on with it.
    Tomorrow and tomorrow and tomorrow creeps in this petty pace till the last syllable of recorded time. And all our yesterdays have lighted fools the way to dusty death. Out! Out! Brief candle
    I raise you "Man, proud man, dressed in a little brief authority, like an angry ape, play such fantastic tricks before high heaven as make the angels weep"
    "It is a tale
    Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury
    Signifying nothing."
    Back to Hamlet
    And yet, to me what is this quintessence of dust? Boris delights not me. No, nor Nadine neither. Though by your smiling you seem to say so.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Penny’s cool. Treads the line between ‘inclusive’ and ‘woke’ very well.

    Oh, and we’ve all seen her in a swimsuit.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    IanB2 said:

    Leon said:

    100 miles was a wild oratorical guess, but I’ll try and work out how far I can see. There are many mountains in the far distance but I am only at 2200 feet

    *checks map*

    Maybe 50 miles?

    So your horizon is theoretically 57 miles away, but it would be so hazy looking along so much ground that in practice something would need to be at a little altitude to be seen that far away.
    Do I get a pedantry award today?
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    biggles said:

    eek said:

    If anyone has 5 minutes to kill try https://neal.fun/absurd-trolley-problems/

    I killed 54 people ..

    55

    Now what pearls of wisdom have I missed?
    68. Always was a bastard.
    52. Anyone below 50?
  • glwglw Posts: 9,906
    The New York Times, demonstrating its expert knowledge of British politics, has described the resignation of Sunak and Javid as defections.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,402
    eek said:

    Sandpit said:

    Cookie said:

    ajb said:

    The big question now is whether the Torys have to end their run of "worst prime minister" at only 3. I reckon they could make it to 4 - certainly if they go for Priti or Nadine.

    I was reminiscing with something approaching fondness the quiet dignity of Theresa May earlier today.
    Theresa May earns her place in the pantheon of ‘worst PMs of my life’ for one reason and one reason alone: the failure to win a majority against Jeremy Corbyn. Every failure of hers stemmed from that. I’d suggest almost anyone would have struggled as much as she did from 2017 onwards, and most would have struggled more.
    And her failure to win against Jeremy Corbyn was the result of many factors, but I’d suggest a big one was the Dementia Tax, which was a notable attempt to introduce an actual solution to the problem of adult social care which wasn’t either a) just putting it off, or b) extracting yet more from the working age population. It may not have been popular, but no-one’s yet made any better ideas work.
    So I retain some sympathy for her.
    She was totally right, but bought the issue up suddenly in an election campaign, with the worst possible background and no prior kite-flying. It was immeditely disparaged and she never recovered.
    The one thing the Dementia / Death Tax did was kill off any chance of Teresa winning an overall majority. Big fundamental announcements like that need to be trailed in advance....
    And yet.
    Precious few spotted that loss of majority except in hindsight.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,052

    A point to be made. We now require him out, not resigning and staying in place whilst a leadership contest occurs. Hes not shitting the bed for a month on our tab nor 'scheming'. Fat cuckoo shoot required.

    Yup. The Tories need a coronation.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,103

    Scott_xP said:

    Senior Tory MPs are saying that Chris Heaton-Harris, the chief whip, is telling PM the game is up
    https://twitter.com/lara_spirit/status/1544669353575976960

    Well, EVERY sentient being should be telling the PM the game is up.

    Because it is.
    Are the PCP ranks replete with sentience?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,838
    Pro_Rata said:

    biggles said:

    eek said:

    If anyone has 5 minutes to kill try https://neal.fun/absurd-trolley-problems/

    I killed 54 people ..

    55

    Now what pearls of wisdom have I missed?
    68. Always was a bastard.
    52. Anyone below 50?
    Me on 46 and SeanF on 42, though different on lobsters vs cats.
This discussion has been closed.