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The next Tory poll lead – politicalbetting.com
The next Tory poll lead – politicalbetting.com
I really do enjoy the betting opportunities that Smarkets give us when it comes to opinion polls. Looking at last night’s poll from Opinium which gave Labour a mere 2% lead, and with another Opinium due in a fortnight I can understand why the 20 on June being the month of the next Tory poll lead will seem attractive to many.
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Mr Johnson is both of the people and of the minute. The photo has him posing next to his personal airliner, and saluting his grateful nation, Benny Hill style.
Some 17 more MPs expressed support for the Prime Minister than voted for him - after Tories were warned "only loyalty will be rewarded in the reshuffle"
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/hunt-tories-who-lied-boris-27207107
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-10907403/New-TV-series-Chums-focus-Oxford-University-days-Boris-Johnson.html
F1: perusing the markets. One of those with half a dozen ok bets but nothing spectacular, so I may be in a state of cogitation for a while.
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-flew-last-ditch-27207605
Does Boris salute every flight or is that picture from India?
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/et-commentary/indo-british-relations-in-light-of-bojos-visit-how-the-wooing-has-gone-the-other-way/articleshow/91035961.cms
It has become almost a meme photo, used for several stories, including partygate, for instance.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-fresh-partygate-fines-b2063609.html
I don't wish to be in the slightest rude but these bi-monthly tory poll lead threads by TSE usually presage another existential crisis in the party and Labour surging ahead again.
So the value is in betting on an increased Labour lead
This does not appear to bode well for our chances in the World Cup later this year.
Is Three Lions' lack of goals becoming a problem?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/61773302
Betting PostF1: considered many bets but in the end split a stake between Zhou Guanyu to beat Bottas at 2.75 and Ricciardo to beat Norris at 3.3. They start immediately ahead and behind of their respective team mates.
Free bet suggestion is Sainz to win each way at 19 (with boost).
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/06/azerbaijan-pre-race-2022.html
"The pound is facing an “existential crisis,” the Bank of America has warned. “We sense a failure to acknowledge that Brexit has been a significant headwind to the supply side."
Ballots counted = 67,650 as of 9.15pm Fri Alaska time (about half of what were returned as of Friday)
> here are the current leaders so far:
Sara Palin (Republican) 23,844 (35.3%)
> former governor & VP nomineee
Nick Begich (Republican) 12,784 (18.9%)
> member of prominent Alaska Democratic political family
Al Gross 8,852 (Nonpartisan) 8,852 (13.1%)
>Democratic US Senate nominee in 2020
Mary Peltola (Democratic) 4,609 (6.8%)
> former state representative and inter-tribal fisheries commissioner
Santa Claus (Undeclared) 3,074 (4.6%)
> city councilman from North Pole (naturlly) and declared Democratic Socialist (ditto)
Tara Sweeney (Republican) 2,324 (3.4%)
> ex-asst sec. of Interior & head of Bureau of Indian affairs under Trump
Joshua Revak (Republican) 1,218 (1.8%)
> state senator
On basis of above, Palin clearly will advance to general election ballot, along with Begich, Gross and probably Peltola.
And businesses, especially smaller ones, will still note they are paying more.
Edited because it was a rise not a cut!
Ballots counted = 67,650 as of 9.15pm Fri Alaska time (about half of what were returned as of Friday)
> here are the current leaders so far:
Sara Palin (Republican) 23,844 (35.3%)
> former governor & VP nomineee
Nick Begich (Republican) 12,784 (18.9%)
> member of prominent Alaska Democratic political family
Al Gross 8,852 (Nonpartisan) 8,852 (13.1%)
>Democratic US Senate nominee in 2020
Mary Peltola (Democratic) 4,609 (6.8%)
> former state representative and inter-tribal fisheries commissioner
Santa Claus (Undeclared) 3,074 (4.6%)
> city councilman from North Pole (naturlly) and declared Democratic Socialist (ditto)
Tara Sweeney (Republican) 2,324 (3.4%)
> ex-asst sec. of Interior & head of Bureau of Indian affairs under Trump
Adam Wool (Democratic) 1,675 (2.5%)
> state representative
Jeff Lowenfels (Nonpartisan) 1,602 (2.4%)
> attorney & gardening writer(a challenging position up in the Last Frontier)
Joshua Revak (Republican) 1,218 (1.8%)
> state senator
On basis of above, Palin clearly will advance to general election ballot, along with Begich, Gross and probably Peltola.
https://www.adn.com/politics/2022/06/11/palin-begich-gross-and-peltola-are-early-frontrunners-in-alaskas-special-us-house-primary/
Early results in Alaska’s 48-candidate special primary election for U.S. House show Republicans Sarah Palin and Nick Begich III taking the lead, followed by independent Al Gross. Democratic former state Rep. Mary Peltola, in her first statewide campaign, was in fourth.
Palin, in her first campaign since resigning as Alaska governor in 2009, was the clear leader with 35%. Begich, a businessman who launched his campaign before the March death of longtime Alaska U.S. Rep. Don Young — which prompted Saturday’s special election — was in second place with 19%.
Gross, who ran unsuccessfully as an independent for U.S. Senate in 2020, with the Democratic Party’s nomination, was in third place with 13%.
Peltola, a former state representative from the Southwest Alaska rural hub of Bethel, was in fourth with 7%. The top four candidates from the special primary will advance to an August special general election, which will be Alaska’s first using ranked choice voting.
Independent Santa Claus — born Thomas O’Connor — was in fifth Saturday with 5%, followed by Republican Alaska Native leader Tara Sweeney, Republican former Fairbanks state Sen. John Coghill and Democratic Fairbanks state Rep. Adam Wool.
The results, representing 68,000 of the nearly 130,000 ballots cast through Friday, are not a definitive statement on which four candidates will advance to an August special general election, and the Alaska Division of Elections did not make clear which regions the ballots were from. Several more counts will take place over the next two weeks.
But the numbers represent the first, long-awaited clear expression of Alaska voters’ preferences in the state’s first U.S. House race without an incumbent in a half-century . . .
Brexit has also affected the price of sterling; a decline in the value of the pound has increased the cost of imports even as British exports have fallen, contributing to the cost of living crisis. Economic forecasters predict the pound could drop further against the dollar and euro, particularly if UK-EU relations over the Northern Ireland protocol become even more fractious.
This hopeless government, mired in incompetence and scandal, has no answers.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/commentisfree/2022/jun/12/observer-view-on-uk-dire-economic-outlook
Useful illustration of the concept of name space. Can only happen because one of them is foreign
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-10893857/ALEX-BRUMMER-Boris-sunk-global-tides.html
If he can refrain from hitting the walls, Perez would be my favourite to win.
AIUI, agency staff are in short supply everywhere. And they are turning down work right now.
So. Where do they come from?
https://news.sky.com/story/peckham-man-arrested-for-immigration-offences-released-after-protesters-block-van-12632214
The planes going back will have lots of empty seats...
I don’t believe there is such a thing as a qualified agency signalman and even if they did exist they won’t be qualified to run anything as all signal boxes require site specific knowledge that takes time to get
It’s not a thin end of the wedge argument. They are not going to do it for serious crimes.
This could be easily resolved with meaningful talks.
The other rail union has settled with Scotrail after meaningful talks.
If I were a manager I wouldn't touch any derogation of regulations, either. That would be to accept liability for the ensuing crash.
There isn't the pool of agency staff for regular day-to-day needs in the economy. And even if there were...
Covering all these roles does not allow trains to run.
So there may we'll be quite a lot of stuff management won't be touching by July.
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2022/jun/09/rail-managers-to-be-balloted-on-strike-action
This threat to bring in blacklegs is so stupid, a few managers aside, that it must be a deliberate Tory attempt to inflame the strike and get better ratings for Big Dog.
It’s not a good thing that a mob intervenes to obstruct the police in the lawful execution of their duties
Unsurprisingly, this government is different. Its route is provocation, threats and raising the temperature, rather than mediation, negotiation and lowering the temperature. Let's find a new enemy within! No surprise at all.
It may have slipped past them, but swathes of commuter business only needs a small push to become WFH.
They are grubby hot tubes of potentially infection generating over priced unpleasantness.
They are much use as a GP barricaded in their surgery refusing to see patients until 3 months time.
Both are racing to find the quickest way to oblivion.
"The government is expected to announce a series of pay deals across the public sector for the current financial year soon, backdated to April."
They'll be well below inflation.
Edit: I assume "deals" means "offers" here.
When all (gestures) this is over, can we burn the Oxford and Cambridge Unions to the ground, burn the ashes to make doubly sure and then disperse the remains across the world so they are never reassembled?
Motorway speeding. Many people exceed 70 most of the time.
The commuter traffic is the business that a strike will put into jeopardy. Be it into London, Manchester or any ither city.
For longer distance travel there is a strong case for a better rail service
If you disagree with the law get it changed
Those who want Boris Johnson gone and those who are helping him to cling on can agree that the Tories have landed themselves in the worst of all worlds.
At a time when Britain faces a daunting array of economic, social and international challenges, it should greatly trouble everyone else that an already desperate and dysfunctional premiership will become even more so.
The number casting a ballot against him would have been higher, perhaps a majority, if more Tory MPs had been convinced by any of the alternatives. It is quite the indictment of their party, and especially of the cabinet, that 211 Conservative MPs apparently think that they cannot offer the country a better leader than a law-breaking liar.
The Conservative party’s supposed ruthlessness about dispatching busted leaders is a bit of a myth. Only in one case in the past 20 years, the removal of Iain Duncan Smith in 2003, has a failing leader been deposed cleanly with one lethal shot. The many mediocrities in the Johnson cabinet, handpicked not for ability but for slavishness, will never tell him to go because they will only keep their jobs for as long as he hangs on to his. One despairing senior Tory fulminates: “My judgment of the entire cabinet is that they are just too cowardly for the job, they are just too fucking cowardly.”
They have also forgotten an earlier lesson from Mrs Thatcher’s career. Boldness can be rewarding. She seized the top spot in 1975 because she was the only member of Ted Heath’s cabinet to have the guts to challenge him for the leadership. She who wielded the dagger did inherit the crown.
And good morning
It's a very post-modern government. Actually achieving things is irrelevant. The key thing is to be in favour of simple solutions and against bad things.
For every magic memory by the Sex Pistols and The Clash there were ten by Joe Dolce, Paper Lace, Boney M, Rick Dees with his "Disco Duck"....
Just a muddled set of knee-jerk reactions to the latest crisis with the sole aim of holding onto power.
For,every cutting edge Play for Today there’s a stinker.
Watching seventies TOTP episodes is really illuminating.
People recall fondly the classics but forget the duds.
I hope this does not descend into shades of the miners strike, but there are indicators it may be
Nandy and Streeting seem to have upset the apple cart by backing the strikes, while Starmer goes awol, and Reeves struggles on Sophie to answer the direct question on whether she would support the strike
I do not know if the conservatives will regain a poll lead, but the fact the question is even being asked seems extraordinary in view of the economic and political crisis engulfing our country and just why labour are not out of sight
I suspect the public may well consider labour do not have the answer either, other than to throw billions at it
So this is where the Spartans and Syracusans build a boom in aug sept 413 trapping the Athenian fleet in the great harbour to the right and destroying them.
All because that muppet Nicias thought lunar eclipses were messages from the gods.
Love or loathe, Maggie had it in spades. Her predecessor Jim Callaghan was coherently Left. John Major was a cloth-head over the ERM but had a soft right coherence, borne of his Brixton background. I didn't particularly like Tony Blair but there's no denying his brand of New Labour mush and guff, which Brown mostly continued. David Cameron aped Blair and brought the same kind of Cool Britannia soft right to the tory party. Even Theresa May, who was a bit of a ditherer, had a right wing brand.
No one knows where Boris Johnson stands on anything. Probably because he doesn't himself. No one in the Conservative Party (or the country) knows what has come before and what will happen next and hence we have a mass of incoherent policies often at total variance: Green one minute, capitalist laissez-faire the next. Both internationalist and nationalistic, High tax, high spend conservativism (uh ... wtf?!) and so I could go on and on. A complete jumblesale of policies.
And on top of this he combines it with chaotic leadership, disorganisation, laziness and lack of attention to detail.
I know he has been dealt a bad hand but I have never known such an incoherent and unsettling premiership in my lifetime.
And with that I wish you all a good day. I'm off out for a walk.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/18856374/rail-wreckers-labours-top-brass/
And if that doesn't give you an earworm, Rasputin
Thinking about it they are the black Abba