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Punters think there will be a Johnson VONC but he’ll win it – politicalbetting.com

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Aslan said:

    Using the Covid numbers are laughable. It hasn't stopped the rest of the world because they relaxed controls there, so there was built up supply suddenly coming through.
    You seem to be agreeing and disagreeing?

    I’m surprised anyone managed to get into the country during Covid, but as you say it didn’t stop RoW migration.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    DavidL said:

    I really have no idea what you are talking about in your last sentence. But whatever.
    Next time I see one, I’ll let you know.
    You produce one every few days.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 13,074
    TimT said:

    And it seems that Brexit was a lot more complicated than your simplistic reduction of it to nasty xenophobia.
    Well, all phenomena are more complicated than discussion on PB.com would lead one to believe. However, concern over immigration was clearly a major driver of voting Leave: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/CSI-Brexit-4-People’s-Stated-Reasons-for-Voting-Leave.pdf
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    You seem to be agreeing and disagreeing?

    I’m surprised anyone managed to get into the country during Covid, but as you say it didn’t stop RoW migration.
    Who is to say RoW migration wouldn't be 5x if COVID stopped?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,285
    edited June 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    I do
    Likewise, but my alarm is God Save The Queen which might explain it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    TimT said:

    And it seems that Brexit was a lot more complicated than your simplistic reduction of it to nasty xenophobia.
    Nasty xenophobia was one, though of course not the only, presiding spirit of Brexit.

    It astonished me that hordes of people don’t get it, but I believe there’s a psychological term for it.
  • Alphabet_SoupAlphabet_Soup Posts: 3,537
    Leon said:

    Once you allow it, then it swiftly becomes insanely loud


    “JAKARTA: Every morning Rina is jolted awake at 3am by blaring speakers so loud she has developed an anxiety disorder: she can't sleep, she's too nauseous to eat -- but she is also too scared to complain because doing so could see her jailed or attacked.

    The noisy neighbour is the local mosque in her Jakarta suburb, and the clamorous sound is the call to prayer.”

    https://www.bangkokpost.com/world/2197663/piety-or-cacophony-indonesia-tackles-call-to-prayer-volume-backlash

    It’s a bit like American gun law. The 2nd amendment was written at a time of muskets and local militias, it didn’t envisage assault rifles and AK47s

    The call to prayer can be a mellifluous thing if sung by one man quietly in a minaret (tho even then it should be severely regulated). The Koran did not envisage massive amplifying systems and mosques competing for worshippers

    I've never heard a peep out of the Regent's Park mosque when trudging back and forth to Lord's so I assume they're content to go about their prayers without upsetting everyone else.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,644
    edited June 2022
    Aslan said:

    The misquoting and mythology on the Remain side is astonishing. Raab said he "hadn't appreciated the full extent" of how much trade went through Dover-Calais and this is still repeated everywhere as he didn't know it was our made export route.
    What Raab said was: "We are, and I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46142188

    So either Raab did not know Dover-Calais is our main trade route, or he did know but did not know by what margin it is our main trade route. Given Raab must have known Dover-Calais is *a* trade route, which is the more natural meaning?
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    I can hear the church bells in my in-laws house several times a day. The church is half a mile away.

    It's not loud enough to wake a person, though. If it were I'd find it a lot less pleasant. Intolerable even.

    Seems like an obvious compromise would be to allow the call to prayer, but to limit the volume.
    I don't think they should allow any new call to prayer or church bells more than once a week. If you have done it since time immemorial I can understand grandfathering it in.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Aslan said:

    Who is to say RoW migration wouldn't be 5x if COVID stopped?
    I dunno.
    I’m as surprised as anyone.

    My argument though is simply about the rhetoric and character of “long Brexit” and it’s affect on the migrant experience.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 25,752
    IshmaelZ said:

    wrong way round

    Lairy on here tonight
    Lairy is one of my two Wordle usual seed words.

    The other one is House.

    Bingo !
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    I dunno.
    I’m as surprised as anyone.

    My argument though is simply about the rhetoric and character of “long Brexit” and it’s affect on the migrant experience.
    But we can see the pre-COVID post-Brexit experience is still 50,000 people a year coming. NET. That completely undermines your claims.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,404
    edited June 2022

    Nasty xenophobia was one, though of course not the only, presiding spirit of Brexit.

    It astonished me that hordes of people don’t get it, but I believe there’s a psychological term for it.
    Nasty Anglophobia was widespread amongst Remainians.

    Again, far from universal, probably not the majority, but it was definitely a large part of that movement.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    IshmaelZ said:

    What gets me is the asymmetry: I don't mind real live muezzins getting up at sparrowfart to call the faithful, but what they do is hitch up a seriously shit PA system to a timer, and stay in bed, probably miles away and with noise cancelling hedfones on. How many of the faithful do not have a smartphone with a timer/reminder app built in to it, anyway?

    Muezzins are shit, as are first cousin marriages and suicide bombings, irrespective of the skin colour of the perps.
    In Lebanon I am fairly sure aggressive use of the call to prayer was a factor in the civil war

    The local Muslims did it really loud to annoy the Christians (and probably half their own community, but anyway). The Christians got duly annoyed - as you do if you are woken every single day at 3am by an insanely loud unintelligible screeching. Someone bombed a minaret, off it kicked

    So I was told by a Christian restaurateur in Byblos. He seemed pretty candid and laid back, otherwise, so I tend to believe him

    The answer is don’t allow it to start. And if you have to ban church bells as well to equalise it, so be it - tho not many bells are electronically amplified and rung before dawn
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    What Raab said was: "We are, and I hadn't quite understood the full extent of this, but if you look at the UK and if you look at how we trade in goods, we are particularly reliant on the Dover-Calais crossing."
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-46142188

    So either Raab did not know Dover-Calais is our main trade route, or he did know but did not know by what margin it is our main trade route. Given Raab must have known Dover-Calais is *a* trade route, which is the more natural meaning?
    Personally, I’m happy to give Raab benefit of the doubt on this one. I take it to mean that he didn’t realise the degree to which EU <> UK trade was concentrated on that route.

    I don’t believe he ever pretended to be a trade guru.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Well you'd not know it was jubilee tonight in Norwich. Quiet. Even the the pub opposite is merely simmering.
    On the plus side, no sign of knitted queens. The now closed Keir Hardie hall looks on silently, the ghosts of working men mutter about a rum old do, one taxi sped past with jacks and limited and quite turgid bunting adorns the late night corner shop.
    Yet if Teemu Pukki farts on any given Saturday you can hear the applause from my flat.
    A fine city. Fine, weird and contrary.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Fishing said:

    Nasty Anglophobia was widespread amongst Remainians.

    Again, far from universal, probably not the majority, but it was definitely a large part of that movement.
    Lol.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Aslan said:

    But we can see the pre-COVID post-Brexit experience is still 50,000 people a year coming. NET. That completely undermines your claims.
    I don’t believe we have 22 figures yet do we?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    MattW said:

    Lairy is one of my two Wordle usual seed words.

    The other one is House.

    Bingo !
    Samey groin for me.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited June 2022

    Well, all phenomena are more complicated than discussion on PB.com would lead one to believe. However, concern over immigration was clearly a major driver of voting Leave: https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/CSI-Brexit-4-People’s-Stated-Reasons-for-Voting-Leave.pdf
    It’s as clear as day, but sadly you won’t get any admission on here.

    Now that Brexit has revealed itself to be an economic and political shit-show, all they have left is the supposed high-minded nobility of the decision itself.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    If you are furious with the state of the Nation then stop voting Tory. 12 years. Simples.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited June 2022
    dixiedean said:

    If you are furious with the state of the Nation then stop voting Tory. 12 years. Simples.

    But KeIr HaD a BaLtI
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Personally, I’m happy to give Raab benefit of the doubt on this one. I take it to mean that he didn’t realise the degree to which EU <> UK trade was concentrated on that route.

    I don’t believe he ever pretended to be a trade guru.
    It's right there in the language. He didn't say he didn't know. He said he didn't know "the full extent". And of course, by saying it he did know now. So his crime was that at some point Iin the past, he didn't know the exact margin. And still even sensible Remainers bring it up. It just shows how much group think they have.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    dixiedean said:

    If you are furious with the state of the Nation then stop voting Tory. 12 years. Simples.

    In the last two elections the only serious choice you lefties gave us was: Jeremy Corbyn

    Of course we voted Tory
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Farooq said:

    No, not really. Unless you define "Anglophobia" as being somewhat against parochialism.
    That is about as tight a link as the claim that controlling immigration is inherently xenophobic.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    edited June 2022
    Wordle;

    I used to use

    Sound, thick, weary.

    Then refined my strategy & reduced it to two;

    Young, arise. Covers the 5 vowels + y.

    For quordle or octordle, I use the original three, then go from there.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    Leon said:

    In the last two elections the only serious choice you lefties gave us was: Jeremy Corbyn

    Of course we voted Tory
    So you reap what you sow. Stop moaning man up and take some responsibility.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,119
    Like this story.

    "A Washington state Guardsman received a phone call from a Ukrainian who has an issue with the Javelin. Guardsman talked him through it. 30 minutes later, Guardsman gets a call from the Ukrainian who just blew up a Russia vehicle."

    https://twitter.com/StevenBeynon/status/1532429021308506112
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,387
    dixiedean said:

    So you reap what you sow. Stop moaning man up and take some responsibility.
    Corbyn in charge of Covid response? In charge of Ukraine response? Happy to take responsibility for voting for Boris. Be happy if he is ousted now, though.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    edited June 2022
    Leon said:

    In the last two elections the only serious choice you lefties gave us was: Jeremy Corbyn

    Of course we voted Tory
    If Change UK had worked we might today be thankful for Chancellor Mike Gapes interventions at the behest of World Stateswoman and PM Anna Soubry.
    And that racist one would have her funny tinge chart out checking immigrants.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    In fact, let’s go through these 12 years of “mistakenly voting Tory”

    In 2010 the Labour offering was the obviously rubbish and autistic Gordon Brown, at the arse end of 13 years of a Labour government which had clearly run out of energy, had no ideas, and was bitterly divided and guilt ridden over Iraq. Facing him was the new and moderately interesting David Cameron


    Sane Choice: Cameron, the Tory

    In 2015 the Labour offering was the ridiculously geeky Ed Miliband, again devoid of great ideas, apart from higher taxes, facing a now experienced Cameron who had led a fairly tolerable Coalition government, running the economy quite well, even if nothing inspiring had occurred

    Sane choice: Cameron, the Tory

    In 2017, the Labour offering was Jeremy Corbyn facing a wildly rubbish Tory leader but frankly, she was facing Corbyn: a mad stupid Marxist lover of the IRA and Hamas

    Sane choice: May, the Tory

    In 2019, the Labour offering was, er, Jeremy Corbyn, the same Marxist traitor, only this time he was promising a 2nd referendum, on Brexit without enacting the first, a ;policy which would have destroyed British democracy and probably led to civil strife. His opponent was a narcissist clown but who cares in this context

    Sane choice: Boris, the Tory


    So in each case the sane choice has been: vote Tory

    Sorry
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    Leon said:

    In fact, let’s go through these 12 years of “mistakenly voting Tory”

    In 2010 the Labour offering was the obviously rubbish and autistic Gordon Brown, at the arse end of 13 years of a Labour government which had clearly run out of energy, had no ideas, and was bitterly divided and guilt ridden over Iraq. Facing him was the new and moderately interesting David Cameron


    Sane Choice: Cameron, the Tory

    In 2015 the Labour offering was the ridiculously geeky Ed Miliband, again devoid of great ideas, apart from higher taxes, facing a now experienced Cameron who had led a fairly tolerable Coalition government, running the economy quite well, even if nothing inspiring had occurred

    Sane choice: Cameron, the Tory

    In 2017, the Labour offering was Jeremy Corbyn facing a wildly rubbish Tory leader but frankly, she was facing Corbyn: a mad stupid Marxist lover of the IRA and Hamas

    Sane choice: May, the Tory

    In 2019, the Labour offering was, er, Jeremy Corbyn, the same Marxist traitor, only this time he was promising a 2nd referendum, on Brexit without enacting the first, a ;policy which would have destroyed British democracy and probably led to civil strife. His opponent was a narcissist clown but who cares in this context

    Sane choice: Boris, the Tory


    So in each case the sane choice has been: vote Tory

    Sorry

    Indeed, had the Labour Party picked David Miliband rather than Ed Miliband in 2010 they might have got a hung parliament in 2015.

    Had Labour picked Andy Burnham rather than Jeremy Corbyn in 2015 they might even have narrowly won the 2017 general election against May's Tories. They have nobody to blame for their 12 years out of power but themselves!
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,116
    Aslan said:

    Using the Covid numbers are laughable. It hasn't stopped the rest of the world because they relaxed controls there, so there was built up supply suddenly coming through.
    https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/number-of-eu-nationals-in-uk-fell-about-200000-last-year/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,447
    Leon said:

    In fact, let’s go through these 12 years of “mistakenly voting Tory”

    In 2010 the Labour offering was the obviously rubbish and autistic Gordon Brown, at the arse end of 13 years of a Labour government which had clearly run out of energy, had no ideas, and was bitterly divided and guilt ridden over Iraq. Facing him was the new and moderately interesting David Cameron


    Sane Choice: Cameron, the Tory

    In 2015 the Labour offering was the ridiculously geeky Ed Miliband, again devoid of great ideas, apart from higher taxes, facing a now experienced Cameron who had led a fairly tolerable Coalition government, running the economy quite well, even if nothing inspiring had occurred

    Sane choice: Cameron, the Tory

    In 2017, the Labour offering was Jeremy Corbyn facing a wildly rubbish Tory leader but frankly, she was facing Corbyn: a mad stupid Marxist lover of the IRA and Hamas

    Sane choice: May, the Tory

    In 2019, the Labour offering was, er, Jeremy Corbyn, the same Marxist traitor, only this time he was promising a 2nd referendum, on Brexit without enacting the first, a ;policy which would have destroyed British democracy and probably led to civil strife. His opponent was a narcissist clown but who cares in this context

    Sane choice: Boris, the Tory


    So in each case the sane choice has been: vote Tory

    Sorry

    And yet despite all those "sane choices", you are apoplectic at the state of the country.

    It is one thing that amuses me about patriots (who often seem to flee these shores at the slightest opportunity). They really seem to hate this country.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,729
    Why does Leon keep saying "autistic" (a) as an insult (b) to insult people who are likely not autistic.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    Leon said:

    In fact, let’s go through these 12 years of “mistakenly voting Tory”

    In 2010 the Labour offering was the obviously rubbish and autistic Gordon Brown, at the arse end of 13 years of a Labour government which had clearly run out of energy, had no ideas, and was bitterly divided and guilt ridden over Iraq. Facing him was the new and moderately interesting David Cameron


    Sane Choice: Cameron, the Tory

    In 2015 the Labour offering was the ridiculously geeky Ed Miliband, again devoid of great ideas, apart from higher taxes, facing a now experienced Cameron who had led a fairly tolerable Coalition government, running the economy quite well, even if nothing inspiring had occurred

    Sane choice: Cameron, the Tory

    In 2017, the Labour offering was Jeremy Corbyn facing a wildly rubbish Tory leader but frankly, she was facing Corbyn: a mad stupid Marxist lover of the IRA and Hamas

    Sane choice: May, the Tory

    In 2019, the Labour offering was, er, Jeremy Corbyn, the same Marxist traitor, only this time he was promising a 2nd referendum, on Brexit without enacting the first, a ;policy which would have destroyed British democracy and probably led to civil strife. His opponent was a narcissist clown but who cares in this context

    Sane choice: Boris, the Tory


    So in each case the sane choice has been: vote Tory

    Sorry

    Since '45 id have been tempted by Attlee, Wilson and Sunny Jim (but would have gone for Maggie).
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Foxy said:

    And yet despite all those "sane choices", you are apoplectic at the state of the country.

    It is one thing that amuses me about patriots (who often seem to flee these shores at the slightest opportunity). They really seem to hate this country.
    The country.
    And the BBC
    And the National Trust
    And local government
    And the universities
    And the judiciary
    And the Scots
    Etc etc etc

    Dyspepsia is treatable, though.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,768
    Disappointingly few Wicker Queens ablazing in this part of Merrie Englande. I'm staying in Bray tonight and they've doubled down on bunting but seem otherwise to have avoided the midsummer madness.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    EPG said:

    Why does Leon keep saying "autistic" (a) as an insult (b) to insult people who are likely not autistic.

    Especially since pretty much everyone on here is “neurodivergent”, using the now preferred term.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Since '45 id have been tempted by Attlee, Wilson and Sunny Jim (but would have gone for Maggie).
    Wilson was an arsehole.
    He gets too easy a ride on here, for some reason.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    EPG said:

    Why does Leon keep saying "autistic" (a) as an insult (b) to insult people who are likely not autistic.

    Because I know autism well, and I am not using it as an insult, I am using it as the right descriptive term for certain awkward personality types in politics

    To my mind, of recent British politicians, both Theresa May and Gordon Brown fit the description

    Now, you may believe I am wrong, and that’s fine, you may believe “only doctors should use the word” or whatever, but please don’t mischaracterise my motives
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    The country.
    And the BBC
    And the National Trust
    And local government
    And the universities
    And the judiciary
    And the Scots
    Etc etc etc

    Dyspepsia is treatable, though.
    Says the New Zealander now living in New York

    Really, your position is laughable. You need to move to an American political website
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915
    Nice to see a beacon being lit in the local area. It lasted for about 20 minutes. Pleasant gathering of people.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    Because I know autism well, and I am not using it as an insult, I am using it as the right descriptive term for certain awkward personality types in politics

    To my mind, of recent British politicians, both Theresa May and Gordon Brown fit the description

    Now, you may believe I am wrong, and that’s fine, you may believe “only doctors should use the word” or whatever, but please don’t mischaracterise my motives
    I am on the autism spectrum and Gordon Brown definitely was. Theresa May wasn't. You can be awkward and detail focused without being ASD.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061
    HYUFD said:

    Indeed, had the Labour Party picked David Miliband rather than Ed Miliband in 2010 they might have got a hung parliament in 2015.

    Had Labour picked Andy Burnham rather than Jeremy Corbyn in 2015 they might even have narrowly won the 2017 general election against May's Tories. They have nobody to blame for their 12 years out of power but themselves!
    David Miliband is the most ridiculously overrated what if. He did nothing in his ministerial career to suggest he'd be a good leader or PM yet there is this bizarre cult of the king over water around him. Its the same with Burnham. Really average health and sports minister, now flavour of the month because he made a fuss during lockdown.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Leon said:

    Says the New Zealander now living in New York

    Really, your position is laughable. You need to move to an American political website
    I feel like I’ve spent more time in the UK than you have in recent years.

    Anyway, US politics is dull, confusing, and intractable. There’s no fun in it.

    Observing UK politics over the last ten years has been like the longest ever Netflix box-set.
    Personally I can’t wait for this season’s finale.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Roger said:

    https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/number-of-eu-nationals-in-uk-fell-about-200000-last-year/
    Yeah, when there was a pandemic going on and nobody wanted to be in London, so they went back to their parents house in Tuscany or Valencia.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,838
    edited June 2022
    IshmaelZ said:

    What gets me is the asymmetry: I don't mind real live muezzins getting up at sparrowfart to call the faithful, but what they do is hitch up a seriously shit PA system to a timer, and stay in bed, probably miles away and with noise cancelling hedfones on. How many of the faithful do not have a smartphone with a timer/reminder app built in to it, anyway?

    Muezzins are shit, as are first cousin marriages and suicide bombings, irrespective of the skin colour of the perps.
    Personally, I'm of the view that the hurdle for banning something should be a high one. There is no law against being offended; I shouldn't be able to ban people from wearing Nazi uniforms, or styling themselves like Johnny Rotten, or wearing a Burqua.

    Likewise, though, if I have a bar or a bank, I am quite within my rights to say "if you wish to enter here and do business, then your face must be visible."

    And I think the same of the Muezzin - it should be treated like any other noise: is it a nuisance?

    If it is - like it's disturbing people's sleep at daybreak - then sure, ban it. On the other hand, if it's not disturbing people any more than the overflow noise from a Taverna, then you can't.

    It's a little like free speech - it applies to all, not just to those of which you approve.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 908
    I'm not much of a monarchist. In fact I'd vote for abolition tomorrow if there was a referendum, but the Jubilee has really thrown into stark relief how much the Queen is loved the world over. From Macron at the Arc d'Triumph to Obama's message on Instagram, there is no denying HMQ is something rare and special in a world leader. This jubilee feels something like a swansong, and I think we shall not see her like again.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Aslan said:

    I am on the autism spectrum and Gordon Brown definitely was. Theresa May wasn't. You can be awkward and detail focused without being ASD.
    That’s interesting, can you elaborate?
    I think they both stimmed a little, for example.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 10,061

    Wilson was an arsehole.
    He gets too easy a ride on here, for some reason.
    Soft on Wilson, soft on the causes of Wilson. The PB way,
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,025
    Unpopular said:

    I'm not much of a monarchist. In fact I'd vote for abolition tomorrow if there was a referendum, but the Jubilee has really thrown into stark relief how much the Queen is loved the world over. From Macron at the Arc d'Triumph to Obama's message on Instagram, there is no denying HMQ is something rare and special in a world leader. This jubilee feels something like a swansong, and I think we shall not see her like again.

    She may yet defy the odds - and give us a 100th Birthday Party that puts today in the shade.....
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    rcs1000 said:

    Personally, I'm of the view that the hurdle for banning something should be a high one. There is no law against being offended; I shouldn't be able to ban people from wearing Nazi uniforms, or styling themselves like Johnny Rotten, or wearing a Burqua.

    Likewise, though, if I have a bar or a bank, I am quite within my rights to say "if you wish to enter here and do business, then your face must be visible."

    And I think the same of the Muezzin - it should be treated like any other noise: is it a nuisance?

    If it is - like it's disturbing people's sleep at daybreak - then sure, ban it. On the other hand, if it's not disturbing people any more than the overflow noise from a Taverna, then you can't.

    It's a little like free speech - it applies to all, not just to those of which you approve.
    It's pretty clearly a nuisance. And it happens 35 times a week.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915
    edited June 2022

    I feel like I’ve spent more time in the UK than you have in recent years.

    Anyway, US politics is dull, confusing, and intractable. There’s no fun in it.

    Observing UK politics over the last ten years has been like the longest ever Netflix box-set.
    Personally I can’t wait for this season’s finale.
    We know what will happen. The Tories will change their leader if they think they're heading for an election defeat. Labour won't change their leader regardless of circumstances. Because the Tories are more ruthless about winning elections.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Andy_JS said:

    We know what will happen. The Tories will change their leader if they think they're heading for an election defeat. Labour won't change their leader regardless of circumstances. Because the Tories are more ruthless about winning elections.
    Sshhhh. No spoilers, please.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 908
    Aslan said:

    I am on the autism spectrum and Gordon Brown definitely was. Theresa May wasn't. You can be awkward and detail focused without being ASD.
    My work is autism adjacent, and I'm always annoyed when people say things like 'We're all somewhere on the spectrum.' While it may be true a lot of people display autistic traits, the thing that is missing from these characterisations is the D in ASD, that being the disorder component. May might have been stilted and unsociable but that doesn't mean she had ASD.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Aslan said:

    I am on the autism spectrum and Gordon Brown definitely was. Theresa May wasn't. You can be awkward and detail focused without being ASD.
    T May? Really?

    Her total inability to relax in social settings, her complete inability to read the public mind (dementia tax!), her slavish devotion to rule following - to a totally bizarre extent (my biggest vice is running through wheat fields!) - they all scream ASD to me

    I have people very close to me who are ASD, I absolutely do not see it as an insult. It’s more like calling someone short or tall or introvert or musical or vain or shy or whatever, to me - just a statement of observed fact, only perhaps more precise than most, in terms of psychology

    I am also aware that PB has a lot of people who are probably ASD, so I do not use the word lightly

    I am happy to admit that I am narcissistic, a tiny bit sociopathic, and a functioning alcoholic ex drug addict. And, clearly, exhibitionistic
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    That’s interesting, can you elaborate?
    I think they both stimmed a little, for example.
    Brown stimmed massively. He often couldn't get words out because his thoughts were racing ahead of his speech. He struggled to maintain eye contact even with his good eye. He froze went he couldn't process everything. He couldn't ad lib speaking, often leaning back on prepared talking points inappropriately. And the phone/printer throwing clearly suggests autism meltdowns. I don't think any of those are true for May.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915
    Is it possible to be on an extreme end of the autistic spectrum but in the opposite direction to what are usually called autistic people?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Aslan said:

    Brown stimmed massively. He often couldn't get words out because his thoughts were racing ahead of his speech. He struggled to maintain eye contact even with his good eye. He froze went he couldn't process everything. He couldn't ad lib speaking, often leaning back on prepared talking points inappropriately. And the phone/printer throwing clearly suggests autism meltdowns. I don't think any of those are true for May.
    May had that odd thing in the corner of her mouth, very similar to Brown. I think she also “froze” on several occasions.

    But I’m not an expert, and you obviously have authority here.

    Both of course were far superior to Boris who is certainly not autistic.
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 908

    She may yet defy the odds - and give us a 100th Birthday Party that puts today in the shade.....
    She was looking awful thin on the balcony. But perhaps you're right. I always think of my old boss in Germany, ten years ago, who took me aside and in conspiratorial tones informed me that he thought the Queen would die soon... I think of all the people that I have known who, in pure actuarial terms, would be expected to outlive the Queen by a few decades at the very least and are now dead. She's resilient.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    T May? Really?

    Her total inability to relax in social settings, her complete inability to read the public mind (dementia tax!), her slavish devotion to rule following - to a totally bizarre extent (my biggest vice is running through wheat fields!) - they all scream ASD to me

    I have people very close to me who are ASD, I absolutely do not see it as an insult. It’s more like calling someone short or tall or introvert or musical or vain or shy or whatever, to me - just a statement of observed fact, only perhaps more precise than most, in terms of psychology

    I am also aware that PB has a lot of people who are probably ASD, so I do not use the word lightly

    I am happy to admit that I am narcissistic, a tiny bit sociopathic, and a functioning alcoholic ex drug addict. And, clearly, exhibitionistic
    I don't agree with those features at all. Her inability to relax comes from introvertedness, not ASD. (I am ASD and an extrovert, so can enjoy myself in social settings very easily.) The rule following comes from growing up in a very English, Christian moral household. The dementia tax was just an (incorrect) belief that Corbyn being a joke meant it was their chance to get unpopular things through, given no one sane would ever vote for him.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915
    "Why Georgia is going mad for Ukraine
    Robin Ashenden" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-georgia-is-going-mad-for-ukraine
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,241
    Still one of my favourite tweets from the never-ending omnishambles of the last few years:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/JonnElledge/status/1108470287484547073

    “Around the age of 5, most children develop the "theory of mind", which means that, for the first time, they come to understand that other people have feelings, motivations and needs just as real as their own.

    “Theresa May is 62.”
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    May had that odd thing in the corner of her mouth, very similar to Brown. I think she also “froze” on several occasions.

    But I’m not an expert, and you obviously have authority here.

    Both of course were far superior to Boris who is certainly not autistic.
    Yes, autistic people can surely make brilliant politicians, it’s not a guaranteed handicap. The focus on detail, work, logic, can all be assets, depends on the circs

    I agree that TMay had facial tics that, to me, looked quite ASD. Her grimacing as she ate those chips in St Austell, it was very much like Brown doing one of his terrible “smiling” vids, trying to fake normal human reactions

    It’s also notable that no one has a problem with labelling Boris as a narcissist (which I think he is). That is also a personality “disorder”, if it is serious. Yet PB is fine with THAT term

    So why is “autism” different? It is just another personality “disorder” (the word *disorder* itself is objectionable, personality TYPE is superior)
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Why aren’t the right wing press moaning about current net migration .

    That’s obvious ! Having demonized EU nationals and pushed for Brexit they can’t talk about migration as then it’s clear that they lied to their readers .

    There seems to be lots of revisionism going on amongst some Leavers in here. The Leave side won because of the toxic debate over immigration . The promise to cut immigration was a major factor which turns out to be yet another lie .



  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,025
    IshmaelZ said:

    Samey groin for me.
    I start with RATIO

    Wordle 349 3/6

    ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜
    🟩⬜🟩⬜🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Andy_JS said:

    Is it possible to be on an extreme end of the autistic spectrum but in the opposite direction to what are usually called autistic people?


    I’ve maybe heard Bill Clinton described as this. Pathologically sociable and charming, always needs to be surrounded by people, effortlessly good at making them relax and feel loved, superb at appearing chilled and comfortable, yet there is something missing, something clinically odd about it
  • UnpopularUnpopular Posts: 908
    Farooq said:

    It's much easier to be loved when you don't have to get involved in the messy business of making tough choices. If you're the one choosing between cutting services and putting people's taxes up, guaranteed half the country will hate you and the other half won't thank you.

    In fact, it's often hard to know what the queen thinks about anything at all. She functions in the eyes of many people as a blank slate, onto which some people paint their own ideas.

    Who else could possibly be as famous as her without really having to say much of interest? I can only think of two quotes from her. One basically "we've had a bad year" which was mostly memorable because annus anus hur hur. And the other "people should think carefully about their vote" or suchlike, which felt a lot like drawing back the curtain to reveal... another curtain.

    Does anyone have anything else about her off the top of your heads?
    That my whole life whether it be long or short shall be devoted to your service.

    That said, I agree with you, but I think that's the point of Constitutional Monarchy. They get to be above the fray of every day politics. Regardless, I think the original point still stands and it doesn't matter why she is loved only that she is. Elizabeth II gets to be a unifying figure in a way that her successor will never be.

    I was simply struck, and surprised, by the love that the world appears to have for her.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    nico679 said:

    Why aren’t the right wing press moaning about current net migration .

    That’s obvious ! Having demonized EU nationals and pushed for Brexit they can’t talk about migration as then it’s clear that they lied to their readers .

    There seems to be lots of revisionism going on amongst some Leavers in here. The Leave side won because of the toxic debate over immigration . The promise to cut immigration was a major factor which turns out to be yet another lie .



    The promise was to CONTROL immigration. No more open borders. That has been delivered
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 5,387

    I start with RATIO

    Wordle 349 3/6

    ⬜🟨⬜⬜⬜
    🟩⬜🟩⬜🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    Wordle 349 4/6

    🟩🟨⬜⬜🟨
    🟩⬜⬜🟩🟩
    🟩⬜⬜🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    Leon said:

    Because I know autism well, and I am not using it as an insult, I am using it as the right descriptive term for certain awkward personality types in politics

    To my mind, of recent British politicians, both Theresa May and Gordon Brown fit the description

    Now, you may believe I am wrong, and that’s fine, you may believe “only doctors should use the word” or whatever, but please don’t mischaracterise my motives
    You constantly use "autism" as a term of disparagement. It is very tiresome and demeans the site when some half wits chip in to agree with your proclamations.

    You are not the expert on ASD that you claim. If you were you would stfu making your ludicrous pronouncements that this former PM, or that former PM is on the spectrum.

    I have explained before why this pisses me off so much in earnest detail, but you still post your old bollocks.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    nico679 said:

    Why aren’t the right wing press moaning about current net migration .

    That’s obvious ! Having demonized EU nationals and pushed for Brexit they can’t talk about migration as then it’s clear that they lied to their readers .

    There seems to be lots of revisionism going on amongst some Leavers in here. The Leave side won because of the toxic debate over immigration . The promise to cut immigration was a major factor which turns out to be yet another lie .

    The thing is, the numbers don’t lie.
    And at some stage someone - maybe Farage, maybe someone else - is going to twig that the issue can be re-exhumed to open up some new front in the culture wars.
  • The thing is, the numbers don’t lie.
    And at some stage someone - maybe Farage, maybe someone else - is going to twig that the issue can be re-exhumed to open up some new front in the culture wars.
    Farage is waiting for an opportunity. Now Brexit is over he'll have no issue going for the Tories again, I would think.

    Nico is right as usual, immigration isn't being cut at all. I wonder if this is why the Red Wall is swinging back to Labour.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Farooq said:

    I think Boris is a psychopath
    As someone who is ACTUALLY on the psychopathic spectrum, I object
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290

    Farage is waiting for an opportunity. Now Brexit is over he'll have no issue going for the Tories again, I would think.

    Nico is right as usual, immigration isn't being cut at all. I wonder if this is why the Red Wall is swinging back to Labour.
    EU immigration has fallen since Brexit, we await and see what impact Patel's Reanda policy has on channel boat crossings
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    In terms of the monarchy I did really like Diana and admit I did shed a tear the night she died in that car crash, I always got emotional when the tv networks kept repeating the footage of her running up and hugging William and Harry . In terms of the Queen I respect her service to the country and it will feel strange when she’s no longer with us .

    I know Harry gets a lot of hate but I do wish people would have a bit more empathy . To lose your mother in that way and everything that went on afterwards would be very hard . William seems to have coped better but it can’t have been easy .

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    edited June 2022
    nico679 said:

    In terms of the monarchy I did really like Diana and admit I did shed a tear the night she died in that car crash, I always got emotional when the tv networks kept repeating the footage of her running up and hugging William and Harry . In terms of the Queen I respect her service to the country and it will feel strange when she’s no longer with us .

    I know Harry gets a lot of hate but I do wish people would have a bit more empathy . To lose your mother in that way and everything that went on afterwards would be very hard . William seems to have coped better but it can’t have been easy .

    Indeed, Diana was probably the saviour of the 21st century monarchy and however brutal the Queen was in forcing Charles to marry her she was absolutely right in terms of preserving the firm.

    Do we really think the children of Charles and Camilla would have had the telegenic appeal and empathetic connection with the public William and Kate and their children have?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,686
    Leon said:

    As someone who is ACTUALLY on the psychopathic spectrum, I object

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychopathy_Checklist

    Many of the 20 items on that list seem rather Big Dog.

    Some of them uncannily so...

  • nico679 said:

    In terms of the monarchy I did really like Diana and admit I did shed a tear the night she died in that car crash, I always got emotional when the tv networks kept repeating the footage of her running up and hugging William and Harry . In terms of the Queen I respect her service to the country and it will feel strange when she’s no longer with us .

    I know Harry gets a lot of hate but I do wish people would have a bit more empathy . To lose your mother in that way and everything that went on afterwards would be very hard . William seems to have coped better but it can’t have been easy .

    As regards Harry, I do respect his desire to protect his wife and children. I'm not sure that he's chosen the easiest way to do so, but I'm not him.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,290
    edited June 2022


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychopathy_Checklist

    Many of the 20 items on that list seem rather Big Dog.

    Some of them uncannily so...

    Blair was probably also a psychopath to some degree but not as much as Boris. Often psychopaths get to the top and hold their positions in business as well as politics by combining charisma and perceived charm with ruthlessness and calculation
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Leon said:

    The promise was to CONTROL immigration. No more open borders. That has been delivered
    I think Leavers who voted on immigration were expecting the numbers to be cut . And no 10 have got away with the current numbers because the right wing press daren’t go near the issue for obvious reasons .
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 33,915
    The Tories were saying a few years ago that they wanted to get migration down to 100,000 a year.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Andy_JS said:

    "Why Georgia is going mad for Ukraine
    Robin Ashenden" (£)

    https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/why-georgia-is-going-mad-for-ukraine

    This is exactly the attitude I encountered with every Azeri I talked to about this.
  • Jim_MillerJim_Miller Posts: 3,204
    It's a start:
    "OPEC has agreed to pump more crude oil over the next two months as Russian production begins to drop because of Western sanctions.

    The oil exporters' cartel said it would increase supply by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August, 200,000 barrels per day more than scheduled under a supply agreement with other producers, including Russia, known as OPEC+."
    source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/02/energy/oil-prices-opec-russia/index.html
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    The promise was to CONTROL immigration. No more open borders. That has been delivered
    The whole point is we can now hold our leaders to account for the immigration policy, which we couldn't under the EU.

    And I don't care about the quantity of immigration. I care about the quality of it. Half a million genuinely skilled professionals is great. Arranged brides and fence installers, not so much.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    TimT said:

    This is exactly the attitude I encountered with every Azeri I talked to about this.
    Russia has pillaged the Caucus for a long time. Ideally we would have the North Caucusus as an independent state from Moscow.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    HYUFD said:

    EU immigration has fallen since Brexit, we await and see what impact Patel's Reanda policy has on channel boat crossings
    Both of those policies are good, but the primary problem right now is low skilled legal migration through the family, student and "skilled" worker routes.
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191
    Andy_JS said:

    The Tories were saying a few years ago that they wanted to get migration down to 100,000 a year.

    Net immigration to under 100.000 pa. Incoming less outgoing.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Aslan said:

    Both of those policies are good, but the primary problem right now is low skilled legal migration through the family, student and "skilled" worker routes.
    Students surely are skilled, or are by the time they finish their course. In the meantime, they are paying for one of the UK’s globally leading export of industries.

    I think the suggestion that there is abuse to the student visa is overblown these days.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Students surely are skilled, or are by the time they finish their course. In the meantime, they are paying for one of the UK’s globally leading export of industries.

    I think the suggestion that there is abuse to the student visa is overblown these days.
    There are plenty of low end universities, but the real low skill stuff here is the non-degree level students, of which there are still a lot.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    edited June 2022
    OT, good thread about the prosecution the DOJ is bringing against someone who worked for an NFT website and used inside information to buy NFTs that were about to be listed then sell them for a profit. They're charging him with wire fraud.
    https://twitter.com/jonwu_/status/1532383955235639298

    IANAL but it feels like it might also apply to someone who use inside information to trade on a prediction market...
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639
    Farooq said:

    It's much easier to be loved when you don't have to get involved in the messy business of making tough choices. If you're the one choosing between cutting services and putting people's taxes up, guaranteed half the country will hate you and the other half won't thank you.

    In fact, it's often hard to know what the queen thinks about anything at all. She functions in the eyes of many people as a blank slate, onto which some people paint their own ideas.

    Who else could possibly be as famous as her without really having to say much of interest? I can only think of two quotes from her. One basically "we've had a bad year" which was mostly memorable because annus anus hur hur. And the other "people should think carefully about their vote" or suchlike, which felt a lot like drawing back the curtain to reveal... another curtain.

    Does anyone have anything else about her off the top of your heads?
    Is that not in itself remarkable though - that it's often hard to know what the queen thinks about anything at all? Not many people in the public eye achieve that. She has managed to carry out her job for 70 years without really creating any opposition to her personally. Usually, the longer a figure is around, the more people find areas of disagreement. Not her. Presumably she has opinions - but not for her the giddy thrill of retweets and likes. She is the only figure in public life without any apparent ego.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 29,644
    edited June 2022

    OT, good thread about the prosecution the DOJ is bringing against someone who worked for an NFT website and used inside information to buy NFTs that were about to be listed then sell them for a profit. They're charging him with wire fraud.
    https://twitter.com/jonwu_/status/1532383955235639298

    IANAL but it feels like it might also apply to someone who use inside information to trade on a prediction market...

    You mean someone who knows in advance of an embargoed poll showing the Tories would win a landslide under Nadine Dorries could back her on the next prime minister market? By analogy with the NFT case, an employee of the polling company would be guilty but a journalist with advanced sight of the poll would not.

    But suppose one of the pb mods knew of a pb header to be published based on this poll, then they would be guilty.

    What if we discard the poll and have someone write a header saying "I've backed Mad Nad at 200/1" then again this would seem to fall into the US DoJ outline.

    Tbh as a non-lawyer I cannot quite make sense of the DoJ's case that the employer (the polling company or pb in the examples above) is the victim. They do not seem to have lost anything.
    https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/former-employee-nft-marketplace-charged-first-ever-digital-asset-insider-trading-scheme
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,241

    This thread has undergone its own London Bridge

This discussion has been closed.