I can’t wait to get it on my pad and wave in front my mums face when I get home.
This can be one of the best days EVER
Labor to narrowly lose a republic referendum within the next 4 years?!
Is republic such a big Labor thing? I associate that with Turnbull.
Albanese is a republican. I don't know if he had proposed a referendum but Gillard for example was keen 'when there was a change of monarch' and given HMQ age and health...... maybe they will propose it?
As I already said Labor ruled out a monarchy referendum in its first term if it won
Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet. Bye bye ScoMo.
So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.
Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.
In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.
My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way
Look forward to more rabbit droppings from me later, but I’m starting pre match drinking now
With Putin marching around the world and China eyeing up Taiwan (and the Solomon Islands, and much of the Pacific), there is no way Australia is going to endanger its alliance with the USA, by repudiating AUKUS
If some of those named in the Sue Gray report object to her criticisms can she still say lump it that’s what the report is or does the whole process end up being delayed further .
Surely you can’t have a scenario where those criticized can influence the final report and get the criticisms muted, if that’s the case then what’s the point of the whole thing .
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
Okay, you’ve been more subtle than the other Russian trolls we have had here in the past few months, so well done on that.
If some of those named in the Sue Gray report object to her criticisms can she still say lump it that’s what the report is or does the whole process end up being delayed further .
Surely you can’t have a scenario where those criticized can influence the final report and get the criticisms muted, if that’s the case then what’s the point of the whole thing .
On the contrary, that rather is the point. Have someone subordinate to you write the report in the first place ...
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
Why should asset prices crash at a time of runaway inflation?
You keep saying this, as major stock markets are 30% down in a few weeks.
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
Why should asset prices crash at a time of runaway inflation?
You keep saying this, as major stock markets are 30% down in a few weeks.
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
The route to victory for Russia is through Western disunity. Suppose the war enters a stalemate with roughly the present front lines. The war drags on as Europe and the US enter recession with inflation over 10%.
Ukrainian casualties, military and civilian are high, and the shattered economy is entirely reliant on financial support from the West - whose governments are under pressure to find money to help their struggling economies.
Ukraine thus is under strong external and some internal pressure to agree to a truce. A truce happens. Ukraine is split politically between those who are relieved that the dying has paused and those outraged that more territory has been lost to Russia. Since the whole country is under arms this outrage expresses itself violently. There are reprisals. Western weapons are used by Ukrainians against Ukrainians, discrediting support for Ukraine.
The urgency for Europe to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels abates. Russia has a breathing space to organise sales to new markets in China, India and Africa, and to use that income to rebuild its armed forces.
When they are ready to resume the attack on Ukraine again, internal divisions have weakened Ukraine, and its leadership is less resolute. Russia is able to complete the conquest of the Black Sea coast and force a permanent treaty on a shattered Ukraine that sees it ceding territory.
I don't say it's likely, but it's not impossible that our resolve breaks before the Russians do. The only way to avoid this outcome is to provide maximum support for Ukraine so that they can achieve victory on the battlefield as quickly as possible.
Fair enough, Russia has to get super-lucky to reach that place, however. I’d say the chances are less than 5%
Putin was surely gambling on winning a terrifically swift victory, slaying Zelensky, marching into Kyiv in about 48 hours before we’d even really noticed
A fait accompli. In that case, we might have shrugged and adjusted and sighed and beefed up our defences, but no more than that. Ie no sanctions. And that would have given him everything he wanted
Now Putin needs an extraordinary amount of luck
I mostly agree, but I wouldn't describe it as luck. It's a question of whether Western leaders are up to the task of providing sufficient support to Ukraine, and Ukraine's leadership is sufficiently competent to use that support to defeat Ukraine.
We're doing quite well at the moment, but the summer could be quite difficult.
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
It certainly is, or at least it was.
I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)
So my advice is avoid, sadly.
Yep that's what I've heard too,,,I think footballers and the like go there now
Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet. Bye bye ScoMo.
So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.
Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.
In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.
My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way
Look forward to more rabbit droppings from me later, but I’m starting pre match drinking now
With Putin marching around the world and China eyeing up Taiwan (and the Solomon Islands, and much of the Pacific), there is no way Australia is going to endanger its alliance with the USA, by repudiating AUKUS
The jolly friendship with China is over
Oh contrary. That’s the complete opposite from what I said.
I said if the Morrison coalition had a degree of Chinese Australians in it before Aukus, they may have swung out of it post aukus, you clearly didn’t even read my post to get all this claim of Australia swinging away from Aukus claptrap.
You heard merely what you wanted to hear, even though it wasn’t even being said. (Except maybe by someone in another post other than mine)
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
It certainly is, or at least it was.
I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)
So my advice is avoid, sadly.
Jumping off point for Delos tho which is as magical as Delphi
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
Why should asset prices crash at a time of runaway inflation?
You keep saying this, as major stock markets are 30% down in a few weeks.
A tad exagerated.
The Nasdaq is down about 20% over the last months, FTSE 100 stable, FTSE250 down a bit but not 30% etc.
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
Why should asset prices crash at a time of runaway inflation?
You keep saying this, as major stock markets are 30% down in a few weeks.
Naah that's not a crash mate, this is a crash.
There's gonna be blips but negative interest rates is negative interest rates
If some of those named in the Sue Gray report object to her criticisms can she still say lump it that’s what the report is or does the whole process end up being delayed further .
Surely you can’t have a scenario where those criticized can influence the final report and get the criticisms muted, if that’s the case then what’s the point of the whole thing .
As far as I understand it, Gray is partly notifying people, not asking for their permission. But this does raise an opportunity for someone to object. I don’t think people can just say, “Don’t name me,” but presumably if you get back to her with a reasoned argument, based on legal principles or your employment contract or something, then she’s in a position to respond to that.
Also, the naming doesn’t seem to be a shaming exercise. It’s more that she’s naming people as part of her description of what happened, so, e.g., on this date a leaving party for X was held. Therefore X gets warned that X is being named.
But that’s just my best understanding so far and we seem to be largely going on leaks and rumours at the moment.
Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet. Bye bye ScoMo.
So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.
Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.
In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.
My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way
Look forward to more rabbit droppings from me later, but I’m starting pre match drinking now
With Putin marching around the world and China eyeing up Taiwan (and the Solomon Islands, and much of the Pacific), there is no way Australia is going to endanger its alliance with the USA, by repudiating AUKUS
The jolly friendship with China is over
Oh contrary. That’s the complete opposite from what I said.
I said if the Morrison coalition had a degree of Chinese Australians in it before Aukus, they may have swung out of it post aukus, you clearly didn’t even read my post to get all this claim of Australia swinging away from Aukus claptrap.
You heard merely what you wanted to hear, even though it wasn’t even being said. (Except maybe by someone in another post other than mine)
Yes, apologies. I was trying to reply to someone else
Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet. Bye bye ScoMo.
So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.
Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.
In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.
My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way
Look forward to more rabbit droppings from me later, but I’m starting pre match drinking now
With Putin marching around the world and China eyeing up Taiwan (and the Solomon Islands, and much of the Pacific), there is no way Australia is going to endanger its alliance with the USA, by repudiating AUKUS
The jolly friendship with China is over
Should be noted though Albanese was in a left faction of the Labor Party linked to the Communist Party of Australia in his youth.
He may not pull out of AUUKUS but he will certainly be more pro Beijing than Morrison
Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet. Bye bye ScoMo.
So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.
Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.
In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.
My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way
Look forward to more rabbit droppings from me later, but I’m starting pre match drinking now
With Putin marching around the world and China eyeing up Taiwan (and the Solomon Islands, and much of the Pacific), there is no way Australia is going to endanger its alliance with the USA, by repudiating AUKUS
The jolly friendship with China is over
Should be noted though Albanese was in a left faction of the Labor Party linked to the Communist Party of Australia in his youth.
He may not pull out of AUUKUS but he will certainly be more pro Beijing than Morrison
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
It certainly is, or at least it was.
I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)
So my advice is avoid, sadly.
Jumping off point for Delos tho which is as magical as Delphi
Delos is indeed marvellous
Mykonos USED to be marvellous. Such a sexy place.
I can remember when - age 22 - my then super cute girlfriend (age 19) decided, on Mykonos, to go not only topless but completely nude. Every day
It blew my fuses. The sight of her emerging naked from the sea, like Venus in the waves. OMFG. And she was ridiculously hot
If some of those named in the Sue Gray report object to her criticisms can she still say lump it that’s what the report is or does the whole process end up being delayed further .
Surely you can’t have a scenario where those criticized can influence the final report and get the criticisms muted, if that’s the case then what’s the point of the whole thing .
On the contrary, that rather is the point. Have someone subordinate to you write the report in the first place ...
It's a standard phase in official reports called Maxwellisation. It gives those criticised the opportunity to respond before publication. It can be a massive hinderance to things like FCA investigations. The Treasury Committee did an interesting report on it a few years ago.
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
It certainly is, or at least it was.
I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)
So my advice is avoid, sadly.
Jumping off point for Delos tho which is as magical as Delphi
Delos is indeed marvellous
Mykonos USED to be marvellous. Such a sexy place.
I can remember when - age 22 - my then super cute girlfriend (age 19) decided, on Mykonos, to go not only topless but completely nude. Every day
It blew my fuses. The sight of her emerging naked from the sea, like Venus in the waves. OMFG. And she was ridiculously hot
SIGH
You genuinely are twelve years old. Tell us that story about you being in prison again.
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
You’ve asked the wrong and the right question
A victory for Russia is not possible at this stage. Their leadership has made a gross error that has resulted in a huge strategic defeat for the country.
A victory is still possible for Putin. In my view complete control of Donetsk and Luhansk would could as victory for the “special military operation” (…our people are safe…)
I think the defence of Mariupol has made it too iconic for Zelensky to give it up… but Putin can point to the destruction of the Azov Brigade as an important step.
I would put this scenario at a 30% chance, but this is why the UK is working so hard to push the western alliance onwards. They see that Russia is on the ground and want to damage them as much as possible. Opportunities like this are infrequent & the UK is not Russia’s friend. Germany and France are more interested in being Russia’s friend as they can make more money that way.
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
It certainly is, or at least it was.
I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)
So my advice is avoid, sadly.
Jumping off point for Delos tho which is as magical as Delphi
Delos is indeed marvellous
Mykonos USED to be marvellous. Such a sexy place.
I can remember when - age 22 - my then super cute girlfriend (age 19) decided, on Mykonos, to go not only topless but completely nude. Every day
It blew my fuses. The sight of her emerging naked from the sea, like Venus in the waves. OMFG. And she was ridiculously hot
SIGH
You genuinely are twelve years old. Tell us that story about you being in prison again.
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
It certainly is, or at least it was.
I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)
So my advice is avoid, sadly.
Yep that's what I've heard too,,,I think footballers and the like go there now
Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet. Bye bye ScoMo.
So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.
Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.
In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.
My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way
Look forward to more rabbit droppings from me later, but I’m starting pre match drinking now
With Putin marching around the world and China eyeing up Taiwan (and the Solomon Islands, and much of the Pacific), there is no way Australia is going to endanger its alliance with the USA, by repudiating AUKUS
The jolly friendship with China is over
Oh contrary. That’s the complete opposite from what I said.
I said if the Morrison coalition had a degree of Chinese Australians in it before Aukus, they may have swung out of it post aukus, you clearly didn’t even read my post to get all this claim of Australia swinging away from Aukus claptrap.
You heard merely what you wanted to hear, even though it wasn’t even being said. (Except maybe by someone in another post other than mine)
Yes, apologies. I was trying to reply to someone else
In which case I fully support what you said. Outgoing coalition and incoming Labor (not sure about greens or all teal independents) are behind Aukus. And standing up to China, where possible, is way to go in my opinion. And I don’t just get that from my mum, it’s just bloody sense 👍🏻
Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet. Bye bye ScoMo.
So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.
Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.
In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.
My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way
Look forward to more rabbit droppings from me later, but I’m starting pre match drinking now
With Putin marching around the world and China eyeing up Taiwan (and the Solomon Islands, and much of the Pacific), there is no way Australia is going to endanger its alliance with the USA, by repudiating AUKUS
The jolly friendship with China is over
Should be noted though Albanese was in a left faction of the Labor Party linked to the Communist Party of Australia in his youth.
He may not pull out of AUUKUS but he will certainly be more pro Beijing than Morrison
It is not bollocks. Albanese is a high tax, high spend, union backed leftwinger and on foreign policy far more pro Beijing, hence the China Global Times backed him for Australian PM.
There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus
I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
Do you really think a new Tory leader would make the slightest difference? As Australia confirms today the trend across the western world at the moment is to the centre left, liberal left, Boris is now the only conservative leader left in the G7, Anglosphere or any major western European nation for example. It is Boris who has defied the global tide and led the Tories to victory in 2019 after all.
We may well be entering into a centre left decade like the 1990s which followed the largely conservative decade of the 1980s, I doubt any Tory leader could defy that. After 10 years in power it is very difficult for any party to win again
We have our disagreements but you are spot on with this, and I think 24 will see the conservatives out of office, probably with a labour-lib dem coalition, and it could be that changing Boris will not change what seems the inevitable
I would say I would be content with that outcome, especially as 14 years conservative or conservative led governments is a very long time
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
It certainly is, or at least it was.
I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)
So my advice is avoid, sadly.
Jumping off point for Delos tho which is as magical as Delphi
Delos is indeed marvellous
Mykonos USED to be marvellous. Such a sexy place.
I can remember when - age 22 - my then super cute girlfriend (age 19) decided, on Mykonos, to go not only topless but completely nude. Every day
It blew my fuses. The sight of her emerging naked from the sea, like Venus in the waves. OMFG. And she was ridiculously hot
SIGH
I remember another poster sharing a similar story some years back.
Feel slightly sorry for Scott Morrison. Australia has suffered one brief recession in 30 years (during Covid) yet it avoided all of the worst of Covid. Oz has secured a new military alliance shoring up her defences. The country consistently tops tables for quality-of-life, healthcare is good, the universities are often excellent, crime is pretty low, the country is safe, the oysters are fine, China is held at bay….
And for that he gets kicked out of office?
I get the sense Aussies have gone for the other guy out of sheer boredom
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
It certainly is, or at least it was.
I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)
So my advice is avoid, sadly.
Jumping off point for Delos tho which is as magical as Delphi
Delos is indeed marvellous
Mykonos USED to be marvellous. Such a sexy place.
I can remember when - age 22 - my then super cute girlfriend (age 19) decided, on Mykonos, to go not only topless but completely nude. Every day
It blew my fuses. The sight of her emerging naked from the sea, like Venus in the waves. OMFG. And she was ridiculously hot
SIGH
I remember another poster sharing a similar story some years back.
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
You’ve asked the wrong and the right question
A victory for Russia is not possible at this stage. Their leadership has made a gross error that has resulted in a huge strategic defeat for the country.
A victory is still possible for Putin. In my view complete control of Donetsk and Luhansk would could as victory for the “special military operation” (…our people are safe…)
I think the defence of Mariupol has made it too iconic for Zelensky to give it up… but Putin can point to the destruction of the Azov Brigade as an important step.
I would put this scenario at a 30% chance, but this is why the UK is working so hard to push the western alliance onwards. They see that Russia is on the ground and want to damage them as much as possible. Opportunities like this are infrequent & the UK is not Russia’s friend. Germany and France are more interested in being Russia’s friend as they can make more money that way.
Putin cannot take the whole of Lunansk and Donetsk at this point. They have already gotten bogged down and need to capture Kramatorsk from the north to achieve it. But they have failed to take a large city repeatedly, and this time their supply lines are insecure against the Ukrainian breakout from Kharkiv.
There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus
I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
Do you really think a new Tory leader would make the slightest difference? As Australia confirms today the trend across the western world at the moment is to the centre left, liberal left, Boris is now the only conservative leader left in the G7, Anglosphere or any major western European nation for example. It is Boris who has defied the global tide and led the Tories to victory in 2019 after all.
We may well be entering into a centre left decade like the 1990s which followed the largely conservative decade of the 1980s, I doubt any Tory leader could defy that. After 10 years in power it is very difficult for any party to win again
We have our disagreements but you are spot on with this, and I think 24 will see the conservatives out of office, probably with a labour-lib dem coalition, and it could be that changing Boris will not change what seems the inevitable
I would say I would be content with that outcome, especially as 14 years conservative or conservative led governments is a very long time
Time for change will be very popular
This (and the focus group mentioned therein) sum it up, really:
This is what I hear from apolitical people all the time, and indeed I flagged this from my elephant-like radar ears some weeks ago. People say about Keir: 'maybe he's just about all right', ' I don't mind him too much really'. High praise these days.
One other thought- whilst I'm sure that replacing BoJo with Jeremy Douglas-Home would minimise the scale of the losses for the Conservatives, it might come at a very high price. The cult of St Margaret the Martyr sent the Conservative Party dolally from 1990 to at least 2005, possibly all the way to 2020. A Johnson pushed out unwillingly by the party could cast an even worse shadow over his successor. Defeat at the hands of the general public might look cruel (and keeping Johnson in No 10 is not in the national interest), but it is nature's way.
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
It certainly is, or at least it was.
I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)
So my advice is avoid, sadly.
Jumping off point for Delos tho which is as magical as Delphi
Delos is indeed marvellous
Mykonos USED to be marvellous. Such a sexy place.
I can remember when - age 22 - my then super cute girlfriend (age 19) decided, on Mykonos, to go not only topless but completely nude. Every day
It blew my fuses. The sight of her emerging naked from the sea, like Venus in the waves. OMFG. And she was ridiculously hot
SIGH
You genuinely are twelve years old. Tell us that story about you being in prison again.
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
It certainly is, or at least it was.
I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)
So my advice is avoid, sadly.
Jumping off point for Delos tho which is as magical as Delphi
Delos is indeed marvellous
Mykonos USED to be marvellous. Such a sexy place.
I can remember when - age 22 - my then super cute girlfriend (age 19) decided, on Mykonos, to go not only topless but completely nude. Every day
It blew my fuses. The sight of her emerging naked from the sea, like Venus in the waves. OMFG. And she was ridiculously hot
SIGH
You genuinely are twelve years old. Tell us that story about you being in prison again.
Just finished watching "Anatomy of a Scandal" and unbelievable how accurately they portrayed Tories. Unfortunately in real life few of the barstewards get their comeuppance.
There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus
I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
Do you really think a new Tory leader would make the slightest difference? As Australia confirms today the trend across the western world at the moment is to the centre left, liberal left, Boris is now the only conservative leader left in the G7, Anglosphere or any major western European nation for example. It is Boris who has defied the global tide and led the Tories to victory in 2019 after all.
We may well be entering into a centre left decade like the 1990s which followed the largely conservative decade of the 1980s, I doubt any Tory leader could defy that. After 10 years in power it is very difficult for any party to win again
We have our disagreements but you are spot on with this, and I think 24 will see the conservatives out of office, probably with a labour-lib dem coalition, and it could be that changing Boris will not change what seems the inevitable
I would say I would be content with that outcome, especially as 14 years conservative or conservative led governments is a very long time
Time for change will be very popular
This (and the focus group mentioned therein) sum it up, really:
This is what I hear from apolitical people all the time, and indeed I flagged this from my elephant-like radar ears some weeks ago. People say about Keir: 'maybe he's just about all right', ' I don't mind him too much really'. High praise these days.
One other thought- whilst I'm sure that replacing BoJo with Jeremy Douglas-Home would minimise the scale of the losses for the Conservatives, it might come at a very high price. The cult of St Margaret the Martyr sent the Conservative Party dolally from 1990 to at least 2005, possibly all the way to 2020. A Johnson pushed out unwillingly by the party could cast an even worse shadow over his successor. Defeat at the hands of the general public might look cruel (and keeping Johnson in No 10 is not in the national interest), but it is nature's way.
Pity the Darwin Awards have given up of late (hardly surprisingly given the antivaxxers for one thing).
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
It certainly is, or at least it was.
I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)
So my advice is avoid, sadly.
Jumping off point for Delos tho which is as magical as Delphi
Delos is indeed marvellous
Mykonos USED to be marvellous. Such a sexy place.
I can remember when - age 22 - my then super cute girlfriend (age 19) decided, on Mykonos, to go not only topless but completely nude. Every day
It blew my fuses. The sight of her emerging naked from the sea, like Venus in the waves. OMFG. And she was ridiculously hot
SIGH
I remember another poster sharing a similar story some years back.
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
You’ve asked the wrong and the right question
A victory for Russia is not possible at this stage. Their leadership has made a gross error that has resulted in a huge strategic defeat for the country.
A victory is still possible for Putin. In my view complete control of Donetsk and Luhansk would could as victory for the “special military operation” (…our people are safe…)
I think the defence of Mariupol has made it too iconic for Zelensky to give it up… but Putin can point to the destruction of the Azov Brigade as an important step.
I would put this scenario at a 30% chance, but this is why the UK is working so hard to push the western alliance onwards. They see that Russia is on the ground and want to damage them as much as possible. Opportunities like this are infrequent & the UK is not Russia’s friend. Germany and France are more interested in being Russia’s friend as they can make more money that way.
Putin cannot take the whole of Lunansk and Donetsk at this point. They have already gotten bogged down and need to capture Kramatorsk from the north to achieve it. But they have failed to take a large city repeatedly, and this time their supply lines are insecure against the Ukrainian breakout from Kharkiv.
I wouldn’t say “can not” but I do have it down as a 30% chance - I tend to the conservative in my strategic risk assessments however. Better to prepare for the realistic worst case outcome.
There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus
I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
Do you really think a new Tory leader would make the slightest difference? As Australia confirms today the trend across the western world at the moment is to the centre left, liberal left, Boris is now the only conservative leader left in the G7, Anglosphere or any major western European nation for example. It is Boris who has defied the global tide and led the Tories to victory in 2019 after all.
We may well be entering into a centre left decade like the 1990s which followed the largely conservative decade of the 1980s, I doubt any Tory leader could defy that. After 10 years in power it is very difficult for any party to win again
We have our disagreements but you are spot on with this, and I think 24 will see the conservatives out of office, probably with a labour-lib dem coalition, and it could be that changing Boris will not change what seems the inevitable
I would say I would be content with that outcome, especially as 14 years conservative or conservative led governments is a very long time
Time for change will be very popular
This (and the focus group mentioned therein) sum it up, really:
This is what I hear from apolitical people all the time, and indeed I flagged this from my elephant-like radar ears some weeks ago. People say about Keir: 'maybe he's just about all right', ' I don't mind him too much really'. High praise these days.
One other thought- whilst I'm sure that replacing BoJo with Jeremy Douglas-Home would minimise the scale of the losses for the Conservatives, it might come at a very high price. The cult of St Margaret the Martyr sent the Conservative Party dolally from 1990 to at least 2005, possibly all the way to 2020. A Johnson pushed out unwillingly by the party could cast an even worse shadow over his successor. Defeat at the hands of the general public might look cruel (and keeping Johnson in No 10 is not in the national interest), but it is nature's way.
Sounds distinctly lukewarm support which could be swept away with some kind of 'tax bombshell' nonsense campaign.
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
You’ve asked the wrong and the right question
A victory for Russia is not possible at this stage. Their leadership has made a gross error that has resulted in a huge strategic defeat for the country.
A victory is still possible for Putin. In my view complete control of Donetsk and Luhansk would could as victory for the “special military operation” (…our people are safe…)
I think the defence of Mariupol has made it too iconic for Zelensky to give it up… but Putin can point to the destruction of the Azov Brigade as an important step.
I would put this scenario at a 30% chance, but this is why the UK is working so hard to push the western alliance onwards. They see that Russia is on the ground and want to damage them as much as possible. Opportunities like this are infrequent & the UK is not Russia’s friend. Germany and France are more interested in being Russia’s friend as they can make more money that way.
Putin cannot take the whole of Lunansk and Donetsk at this point. They have already gotten bogged down and need to capture Kramatorsk from the north to achieve it. But they have failed to take a large city repeatedly, and this time their supply lines are insecure against the Ukrainian breakout from Kharkiv.
I wouldn’t say “can not” but I do have it down as a 30% chance - I tend to the conservative in my strategic risk assessments however. Better to prepare for the realistic worst case outcome.
The only way Russia can semi-win this is if the entire West buckles. Unfortunately for Putin the British refuse to do this, because they are seeking payback for Skripal and Litvinenko. It was truly stupid of Putin to offend an economy twice the size with attacks on British citizens on British soil.
Feel slightly sorry for Scott Morrison. Australia has suffered one brief recession in 30 years (during Covid) yet it avoided all of the worst of Covid. Oz has secured a new military alliance shoring up her defences. The country consistently tops tables for quality-of-life, healthcare is good, the universities are often excellent, crime is pretty low, the country is safe, the oysters are fine, China is held at bay….
And for that he gets kicked out of office?
I get the sense Aussies have gone for the other guy out of sheer boredom
I hold no candle for Scott Morrison but all I can remember about Australian Labor is the chip they have on their shoulder.
There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus
I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
Do you really think a new Tory leader would make the slightest difference? As Australia confirms today the trend across the western world at the moment is to the centre left, liberal left, Boris is now the only conservative leader left in the G7, Anglosphere or any major western European nation for example. It is Boris who has defied the global tide and led the Tories to victory in 2019 after all.
We may well be entering into a centre left decade like the 1990s which followed the largely conservative decade of the 1980s, I doubt any Tory leader could defy that. After 10 years in power it is very difficult for any party to win again
We have our disagreements but you are spot on with this, and I think 24 will see the conservatives out of office, probably with a labour-lib dem coalition, and it could be that changing Boris will not change what seems the inevitable
I would say I would be content with that outcome, especially as 14 years conservative or conservative led governments is a very long time
Time for change will be very popular
This (and the focus group mentioned therein) sum it up, really:
This is what I hear from apolitical people all the time, and indeed I flagged this from my elephant-like radar ears some weeks ago. People say about Keir: 'maybe he's just about all right', ' I don't mind him too much really'. High praise these days.
One other thought- whilst I'm sure that replacing BoJo with Jeremy Douglas-Home would minimise the scale of the losses for the Conservatives, it might come at a very high price. The cult of St Margaret the Martyr sent the Conservative Party dolally from 1990 to at least 2005, possibly all the way to 2020. A Johnson pushed out unwillingly by the party could cast an even worse shadow over his successor. Defeat at the hands of the general public might look cruel (and keeping Johnson in No 10 is not in the national interest), but it is nature's way.
The Conservatives may be so detested by 2024/2025 that voters roll the dice on Labour anyway, even though they doubt they've learnt any lessons or can do any better.
Really, the only way out for the Conservatives is to deliver an economic recovery - and that probably means getting rid of both Boris and Sunak.
There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus
I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
Do you really think a new Tory leader would make the slightest difference? As Australia confirms today the trend across the western world at the moment is to the centre left, liberal left, Boris is now the only conservative leader left in the G7, Anglosphere or any major western European nation for example. It is Boris who has defied the global tide and led the Tories to victory in 2019 after all.
We may well be entering into a centre left decade like the 1990s which followed the largely conservative decade of the 1980s, I doubt any Tory leader could defy that. After 10 years in power it is very difficult for any party to win again
We have our disagreements but you are spot on with this, and I think 24 will see the conservatives out of office, probably with a labour-lib dem coalition, and it could be that changing Boris will not change what seems the inevitable
I would say I would be content with that outcome, especially as 14 years conservative or conservative led governments is a very long time
Time for change will be very popular
This (and the focus group mentioned therein) sum it up, really:
This is what I hear from apolitical people all the time, and indeed I flagged this from my elephant-like radar ears some weeks ago. People say about Keir: 'maybe he's just about all right', ' I don't mind him too much really'. High praise these days.
One other thought- whilst I'm sure that replacing BoJo with Jeremy Douglas-Home would minimise the scale of the losses for the Conservatives, it might come at a very high price. The cult of St Margaret the Martyr sent the Conservative Party dolally from 1990 to at least 2005, possibly all the way to 2020. A Johnson pushed out unwillingly by the party could cast an even worse shadow over his successor. Defeat at the hands of the general public might look cruel (and keeping Johnson in No 10 is not in the national interest), but it is nature's way.
Sounds distinctly lukewarm support which could be swept away with some kind of 'tax bombshell' nonsense campaign.
I'm not counting any chickens.
I think the difference between 1992 and now is that noone believes a word Johnson, or the Tories in general, say. That makes any kind of campaign (positive or negative) very difficult. In many ways the Tories' best approach to 2024 might be to run an almost silent operation, and hope that Labour descends into infighting and chaos and takes its own legs out from under itself.
There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus
I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
Do you really think a new Tory leader would make the slightest difference? As Australia confirms today the trend across the western world at the moment is to the centre left, liberal left, Boris is now the only conservative leader left in the G7, Anglosphere or any major western European nation for example. It is Boris who has defied the global tide and led the Tories to victory in 2019 after all.
We may well be entering into a centre left decade like the 1990s which followed the largely conservative decade of the 1980s, I doubt any Tory leader could defy that. After 10 years in power it is very difficult for any party to win again
We have our disagreements but you are spot on with this, and I think 24 will see the conservatives out of office, probably with a labour-lib dem coalition, and it could be that changing Boris will not change what seems the inevitable
I would say I would be content with that outcome, especially as 14 years conservative or conservative led governments is a very long time
Time for change will be very popular
This (and the focus group mentioned therein) sum it up, really:
This is what I hear from apolitical people all the time, and indeed I flagged this from my elephant-like radar ears some weeks ago. People say about Keir: 'maybe he's just about all right', ' I don't mind him too much really'. High praise these days.
One other thought- whilst I'm sure that replacing BoJo with Jeremy Douglas-Home would minimise the scale of the losses for the Conservatives, it might come at a very high price. The cult of St Margaret the Martyr sent the Conservative Party dolally from 1990 to at least 2005, possibly all the way to 2020. A Johnson pushed out unwillingly by the party could cast an even worse shadow over his successor. Defeat at the hands of the general public might look cruel (and keeping Johnson in No 10 is not in the national interest), but it is nature's way.
Sounds distinctly lukewarm support which could be swept away with some kind of 'tax bombshell' nonsense campaign.
I'm not counting any chickens.
I think the difference between 1992 and now is that noone believes a word Johnson, or the Tories in general, say. That makes any kind of campaign (positive or negative) very difficult. In many ways the Tories' best approach to 2024 might be to run an almost silent operation, and hope that Labour descends into infighting and chaos and takes its own legs out from under itself.
We already know that will essentially be the strategy. Boris is too gaffe-prone to be allowed out during an actual campaign.
There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus
I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
Do you really think a new Tory leader would make the slightest difference? As Australia confirms today the trend across the western world at the moment is to the centre left, liberal left, Boris is now the only conservative leader left in the G7, Anglosphere or any major western European nation for example. It is Boris who has defied the global tide and led the Tories to victory in 2019 after all.
We may well be entering into a centre left decade like the 1990s which followed the largely conservative decade of the 1980s, I doubt any Tory leader could defy that. After 10 years in power it is very difficult for any party to win again
We have our disagreements but you are spot on with this, and I think 24 will see the conservatives out of office, probably with a labour-lib dem coalition, and it could be that changing Boris will not change what seems the inevitable
I would say I would be content with that outcome, especially as 14 years conservative or conservative led governments is a very long time
Time for change will be very popular
This (and the focus group mentioned therein) sum it up, really:
This is what I hear from apolitical people all the time, and indeed I flagged this from my elephant-like radar ears some weeks ago. People say about Keir: 'maybe he's just about all right', ' I don't mind him too much really'. High praise these days.
One other thought- whilst I'm sure that replacing BoJo with Jeremy Douglas-Home would minimise the scale of the losses for the Conservatives, it might come at a very high price. The cult of St Margaret the Martyr sent the Conservative Party dolally from 1990 to at least 2005, possibly all the way to 2020. A Johnson pushed out unwillingly by the party could cast an even worse shadow over his successor. Defeat at the hands of the general public might look cruel (and keeping Johnson in No 10 is not in the national interest), but it is nature's way.
Sounds distinctly lukewarm support which could be swept away with some kind of 'tax bombshell' nonsense campaign.
I'm not counting any chickens.
I think the difference between 1992 and now is that noone believes a word Johnson, or the Tories in general, say. That makes any kind of campaign (positive or negative) very difficult. In many ways the Tories' best approach to 2024 might be to run an almost silent operation, and hope that Labour descends into infighting and chaos and takes its own legs out from under itself.
We already know that will essentially be the strategy. Boris is too gaffe-prone to be allowed out during an actual campaign.
Even now a giant steel refrigerator is being built in Downing Street.
There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus
I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
Do you really think a new Tory leader would make the slightest difference? As Australia confirms today the trend across the western world at the moment is to the centre left, liberal left, Boris is now the only conservative leader left in the G7, Anglosphere or any major western European nation for example. It is Boris who has defied the global tide and led the Tories to victory in 2019 after all.
We may well be entering into a centre left decade like the 1990s which followed the largely conservative decade of the 1980s, I doubt any Tory leader could defy that. After 10 years in power it is very difficult for any party to win again
We have our disagreements but you are spot on with this, and I think 24 will see the conservatives out of office, probably with a labour-lib dem coalition, and it could be that changing Boris will not change what seems the inevitable
I would say I would be content with that outcome, especially as 14 years conservative or conservative led governments is a very long time
Time for change will be very popular
This (and the focus group mentioned therein) sum it up, really:
This is what I hear from apolitical people all the time, and indeed I flagged this from my elephant-like radar ears some weeks ago. People say about Keir: 'maybe he's just about all right', ' I don't mind him too much really'. High praise these days.
One other thought- whilst I'm sure that replacing BoJo with Jeremy Douglas-Home would minimise the scale of the losses for the Conservatives, it might come at a very high price. The cult of St Margaret the Martyr sent the Conservative Party dolally from 1990 to at least 2005, possibly all the way to 2020. A Johnson pushed out unwillingly by the party could cast an even worse shadow over his successor. Defeat at the hands of the general public might look cruel (and keeping Johnson in No 10 is not in the national interest), but it is nature's way.
Sounds distinctly lukewarm support which could be swept away with some kind of 'tax bombshell' nonsense campaign.
I'm not counting any chickens.
I think the difference between 1992 and now is that noone believes a word Johnson, or the Tories in general, say. That makes any kind of campaign (positive or negative) very difficult. In many ways the Tories' best approach to 2024 might be to run an almost silent operation, and hope that Labour descends into infighting and chaos and takes its own legs out from under itself.
We already know that will essentially be the strategy. Boris is too gaffe-prone to be allowed out during an actual campaign.
Even now a giant steel refrigerator is being built in Downing Street.
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
Is that because it tastes like an elegant super Tuscan three times the price or because you cannot tell the difference between a £13 bottle and a £40 bottle ?
And I'm not sure why anyone should want a super refined wine tasting palate if the result is you need to spend £50 to get the enjoyment someone else gets for spending £5 on a bottle.
For great value red go for Greece, the Balkans, Moldova, and Portugal, or high altitude Argentine Malbecs (this is in terms of what you can get in the UK)
For whites try southern Portugal, Greece, obscure bits of France. Oz and NZ are pricing themselves out of the market, Kiwi Sauv Blanc is now insanely pricey
Morrisons house £4.35 Cabernet is Moldovan. Not objectively good, but surprisingly characterful, and a bargain for the price.
A recent trip to Portugal convinced me we should see more portuguese whites. Douro red is a supermarket staple now, but the only white they tend to have is Vinho Verde, when there is so much more to Portuguese whites.
@spignal Outgoing French foreign minister openly delighted at Scott Morrison's electoral defeat. Le Drian took AUKUS personally, having been defence minister when France and Australia signed the submarines deal.
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
You’ve asked the wrong and the right question
A victory for Russia is not possible at this stage. Their leadership has made a gross error that has resulted in a huge strategic defeat for the country.
A victory is still possible for Putin. In my view complete control of Donetsk and Luhansk would could as victory for the “special military operation” (…our people are safe…)
I think the defence of Mariupol has made it too iconic for Zelensky to give it up… but Putin can point to the destruction of the Azov Brigade as an important step.
I would put this scenario at a 30% chance, but this is why the UK is working so hard to push the western alliance onwards. They see that Russia is on the ground and want to damage them as much as possible. Opportunities like this are infrequent & the UK is not Russia’s friend. Germany and France are more interested in being Russia’s friend as they can make more money that way.
Putin cannot take the whole of Lunansk and Donetsk at this point. They have already gotten bogged down and need to capture Kramatorsk from the north to achieve it. But they have failed to take a large city repeatedly, and this time their supply lines are insecure against the Ukrainian breakout from Kharkiv.
I wouldn’t say “can not” but I do have it down as a 30% chance - I tend to the conservative in my strategic risk assessments however. Better to prepare for the realistic worst case outcome.
The only way Russia can semi-win this is if the entire West buckles. Unfortunately for Putin the British refuse to do this, because they are seeking payback for Skripal and Litvinenko. It was truly stupid of Putin to offend an economy twice the size with attacks on British citizens on British soil.
Russia benefits (or loses) from what Brett Devereaux calls "The Fremen Mirage."
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And weak men create hard times".
The view is that Russian soldiers (and soldiers under other dictatorships) are hard, tough, invincible, when pitted against the weak, soft, citizens of democracies, who will cave in to their enemies, just to get another 0.25% on GDP.
I would venture the opinion that actually, liberal democracies are better at waging war than almost any dictatorship.
There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus
I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
Do you really think a new Tory leader would make the slightest difference? As Australia confirms today the trend across the western world at the moment is to the centre left, liberal left, Boris is now the only conservative leader left in the G7, Anglosphere or any major western European nation for example. It is Boris who has defied the global tide and led the Tories to victory in 2019 after all.
We may well be entering into a centre left decade like the 1990s which followed the largely conservative decade of the 1980s, I doubt any Tory leader could defy that. After 10 years in power it is very difficult for any party to win again
We have our disagreements but you are spot on with this, and I think 24 will see the conservatives out of office, probably with a labour-lib dem coalition, and it could be that changing Boris will not change what seems the inevitable
I would say I would be content with that outcome, especially as 14 years conservative or conservative led governments is a very long time
Time for change will be very popular
This (and the focus group mentioned therein) sum it up, really:
This is what I hear from apolitical people all the time, and indeed I flagged this from my elephant-like radar ears some weeks ago. People say about Keir: 'maybe he's just about all right', ' I don't mind him too much really'. High praise these days.
One other thought- whilst I'm sure that replacing BoJo with Jeremy Douglas-Home would minimise the scale of the losses for the Conservatives, it might come at a very high price. The cult of St Margaret the Martyr sent the Conservative Party dolally from 1990 to at least 2005, possibly all the way to 2020. A Johnson pushed out unwillingly by the party could cast an even worse shadow over his successor. Defeat at the hands of the general public might look cruel (and keeping Johnson in No 10 is not in the national interest), but it is nature's way.
Sounds distinctly lukewarm support which could be swept away with some kind of 'tax bombshell' nonsense campaign.
I'm not counting any chickens.
I think the difference between 1992 and now is that noone believes a word Johnson, or the Tories in general, say. That makes any kind of campaign (positive or negative) very difficult. In many ways the Tories' best approach to 2024 might be to run an almost silent operation, and hope that Labour descends into infighting and chaos and takes its own legs out from under itself.
We already know that will essentially be the strategy. Boris is too gaffe-prone to be allowed out during an actual campaign.
Even now a giant steel refrigerator is being built in Downing Street.
Only now? Where did they keep all the booze?
Correction: Even now a giant steel refrigerator is being *emptied* in Downing Street.
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
Is that because it tastes like an elegant super Tuscan three times the price or because you cannot tell the difference between a £13 bottle and a £40 bottle ?
And I'm not sure why anyone should want a super refined wine tasting palate if the result is you need to spend £50 to get the enjoyment someone else gets for spending £5 on a bottle.
For great value red go for Greece, the Balkans, Moldova, and Portugal, or high altitude Argentine Malbecs (this is in terms of what you can get in the UK)
For whites try southern Portugal, Greece, obscure bits of France. Oz and NZ are pricing themselves out of the market, Kiwi Sauv Blanc is now insanely pricey
Morrisons house £4.35 Cabernet is Moldovan. Not objectively good, but surprisingly characterful, and a bargain for the price.
A recent trip to Portugal convinced me we should see more portuguese whites. Douro red is a supermarket staple now, but the only white they tend to have is Vinho Verde, when there is so much more to Portuguese whites.
Yes, the Portuguese make some excellent whites, even - especially? - in the south
They go spectacularly well with seafood, as you’d expect
Slovenian whites are often nice, as well, and also notably good value
Almost anywhere on earth that can theoretically - climate, soil, investment. - make decent wine, is now doing so. I’ve had highly drinkable wines from Bolivia, Ethiopia, China
@spignal Outgoing French foreign minister openly delighted at Scott Morrison's electoral defeat. Le Drian took AUKUS personally, having been defence minister when France and Australia signed the submarines deal.
Sometimes it feels like 24 might be 92 redux, but then I try to imagine Johnson doing an “Honest Boris” soapbox tour.
But you know who could? Keir Starmer.
An alternative thought, though. I may think Johnson is a ghastly stain on the body politic that no amount of scrubbing and bleach can remove. But if Johnson is supposed to be a magical electoral asset by the faithful, will they really hide him away?
What a surprise that PB’s newest gadfly has pivoted to Russian boosterism.
This will surprise nobody but I think it's quite handy. The powers that be don't think we're grown up enough to be trusted to read RT, so Gary here can at least tell us what the Russian lines to take are. Nobody is being forced to believe him.
Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out
Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
It really is lovable
i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless
The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme
*Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:
The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious
Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
Is that because it tastes like an elegant super Tuscan three times the price or because you cannot tell the difference between a £13 bottle and a £40 bottle ?
And I'm not sure why anyone should want a super refined wine tasting palate if the result is you need to spend £50 to get the enjoyment someone else gets for spending £5 on a bottle.
For great value red go for Greece, the Balkans, Moldova, and Portugal, or high altitude Argentine Malbecs (this is in terms of what you can get in the UK)
For whites try southern Portugal, Greece, obscure bits of France. Oz and NZ are pricing themselves out of the market, Kiwi Sauv Blanc is now insanely pricey
Morrisons house £4.35 Cabernet is Moldovan. Not objectively good, but surprisingly characterful, and a bargain for the price.
A recent trip to Portugal convinced me we should see more portuguese whites. Douro red is a supermarket staple now, but the only white they tend to have is Vinho Verde, when there is so much more to Portuguese whites.
Yes, the Portuguese make some excellent whites, even - especially? - in the south
They go spectacularly well with seafood, as you’d expect
Slovenian whites are often nice, as well, and also notably good value
Almost anywhere on earth that can theoretically - climate, soil, investment. - make decent wine, is now doing so. I’ve had highly drinkable wines from Bolivia, Ethiopia, China
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
You’ve asked the wrong and the right question
A victory for Russia is not possible at this stage. Their leadership has made a gross error that has resulted in a huge strategic defeat for the country.
A victory is still possible for Putin. In my view complete control of Donetsk and Luhansk would could as victory for the “special military operation” (…our people are safe…)
I think the defence of Mariupol has made it too iconic for Zelensky to give it up… but Putin can point to the destruction of the Azov Brigade as an important step.
I would put this scenario at a 30% chance, but this is why the UK is working so hard to push the western alliance onwards. They see that Russia is on the ground and want to damage them as much as possible. Opportunities like this are infrequent & the UK is not Russia’s friend. Germany and France are more interested in being Russia’s friend as they can make more money that way.
Putin cannot take the whole of Lunansk and Donetsk at this point. They have already gotten bogged down and need to capture Kramatorsk from the north to achieve it. But they have failed to take a large city repeatedly, and this time their supply lines are insecure against the Ukrainian breakout from Kharkiv.
I wouldn’t say “can not” but I do have it down as a 30% chance - I tend to the conservative in my strategic risk assessments however. Better to prepare for the realistic worst case outcome.
The only way Russia can semi-win this is if the entire West buckles. Unfortunately for Putin the British refuse to do this, because they are seeking payback for Skripal and Litvinenko. It was truly stupid of Putin to offend an economy twice the size with attacks on British citizens on British soil.
I’m not convinced that any of the last few PMs would have been able to resist pressure for “a deal”
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.
Sometimes it feels like 24 might be 92 redux, but then I try to imagine Johnson doing an “Honest Boris” soapbox tour.
But you know who could? Keir Starmer.
An alternative thought, though. I may think Johnson is a ghastly stain on the body politic that no amount of scrubbing and bleach can remove. But if Johnson is supposed to be a magical electoral asset by the faithful, will they really hide him away?
Think back to 2019. Johnson ducked quite a lot. Johnson's image, as a cardboard cutout or a photo in a meme, was attractive. But the real thing... a different matter.
What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?
Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia
At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy
I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
You’ve asked the wrong and the right question
A victory for Russia is not possible at this stage. Their leadership has made a gross error that has resulted in a huge strategic defeat for the country.
A victory is still possible for Putin. In my view complete control of Donetsk and Luhansk would could as victory for the “special military operation” (…our people are safe…)
I think the defence of Mariupol has made it too iconic for Zelensky to give it up… but Putin can point to the destruction of the Azov Brigade as an important step.
I would put this scenario at a 30% chance, but this is why the UK is working so hard to push the western alliance onwards. They see that Russia is on the ground and want to damage them as much as possible. Opportunities like this are infrequent & the UK is not Russia’s friend. Germany and France are more interested in being Russia’s friend as they can make more money that way.
Putin cannot take the whole of Lunansk and Donetsk at this point. They have already gotten bogged down and need to capture Kramatorsk from the north to achieve it. But they have failed to take a large city repeatedly, and this time their supply lines are insecure against the Ukrainian breakout from Kharkiv.
I wouldn’t say “can not” but I do have it down as a 30% chance - I tend to the conservative in my strategic risk assessments however. Better to prepare for the realistic worst case outcome.
The only way Russia can semi-win this is if the entire West buckles. Unfortunately for Putin the British refuse to do this, because they are seeking payback for Skripal and Litvinenko. It was truly stupid of Putin to offend an economy twice the size with attacks on British citizens on British soil.
Cameron was pretty weak on Crimea. In his memoirs he even brags about giving Putin the idea of legitimating the annexation with a referendum.
Sometimes it feels like 24 might be 92 redux, but then I try to imagine Johnson doing an “Honest Boris” soapbox tour.
But you know who could? Keir Starmer.
An alternative thought, though. I may think Johnson is a ghastly stain on the body politic that no amount of scrubbing and bleach can remove. But if Johnson is supposed to be a magical electoral asset by the faithful, will they really hide him away?
Think back to 2019. Johnson ducked quite a lot. Johnson's image, as a cardboard cutout or a photo in a meme, was attractive. But the real thing... a different matter.
He has never consented to a proper interview for a reason.
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
Hidden in that thread is that they can't give British gas away yet retail gas prices are at record highs.
That is astonishing. And also this on gas storage:
'Centrica (British Gas) shut the storage facility in 2017 after the government refused to subsidise its maintenance. The facility is actually a former gas field in the North Sea. I am sure if govt wanted to it could be reopened with engineering on the closed shore site. https://t.co/UHbdipyEE5'
So at the moment we can't make use of the current glut for the winter.
This is criminally irresponsible behaviour by a so called Tory Government. Why hasn't it been reversed along with a package of other measures to ease the impact of the cost of living crisis?
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.
Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.
I’m not convinced that any of the last few PMs would have been able to resist pressure for “a deal”
Ultimately we need to be careful to leave it to Zelensky to decide - we can be as militant as we like from our armchairs, but they're doing the actual fighting and dying. He's varied from setting his sights on total eviction of the Russians to saying that a diplomatic solution will be needed in the end. The Russians have also varied from implying they want to conquer the whole country to suggesting that it's really just about protecting their Donbas satellites. Unless someone wins outright, there will be a stalemate on the ground at some point, after which both sides may be up for a deal, and we shouldn't second-guess it, though insofar as it also involves lifting sanctions (e.g. to pay for reparations?) we may be asked by Ukraine to play a part. We should neither urge nor block a settlement.
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
Hidden in that thread is that they can't give British gas away yet retail gas prices are at record highs.
That is astonishing. And also this on gas storage:
'Centrica (British Gas) shut the storage facility in 2017 after the government refused to subsidise its maintenance. The facility is actually a former gas field in the North Sea. I am sure if govt wanted to it could be reopened with engineering on the closed shore site. https://t.co/UHbdipyEE5'
So at the moment we can't make use of the current glut for the winter.
This is criminally irresponsible behaviour by a so called Tory Government. Why hasn't it been reversed along with a package of other measures to ease the impact of the cost of living crisis?
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
Hidden in that thread is that they can't give British gas away yet retail gas prices are at record highs.
That is astonishing. And also this on gas storage:
'Centrica (British Gas) shut the storage facility in 2017 after the government refused to subsidise its maintenance. The facility is actually a former gas field in the North Sea. I am sure if govt wanted to it could be reopened with engineering on the closed shore site. https://t.co/UHbdipyEE5'
So at the moment we can't make use of the current glut for the winter.
This is criminally irresponsible behaviour by a so called Tory Government. Why hasn't it been reversed along with a package of other measures to ease the impact of the cost of living crisis?
To steal, and extend, an observation I saw elsewhere, it’s because the government’s policy strategy (level up!) is totally disconnected from its economic strategy (lower taxes!) which is totally estranged from its politico-fiscal strategy (raise taxes now and cut them on the eve of the next election!) which is totally divorced from the current reality (stagflation).
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
Hidden in that thread is that they can't give British gas away yet retail gas prices are at record highs.
That is astonishing. And also this on gas storage:
'Centrica (British Gas) shut the storage facility in 2017 after the government refused to subsidise its maintenance. The facility is actually a former gas field in the North Sea. I am sure if govt wanted to it could be reopened with engineering on the closed shore site. https://t.co/UHbdipyEE5'
So at the moment we can't make use of the current glut for the winter.
This is criminally irresponsible behaviour by a so called Tory Government. Why hasn't it been reversed along with a package of other measures to ease the impact of the cost of living crisis?
Interference with the free market, private market will sort it, innit.
(And yes I entirely agree. It should have been got going asap this spring already, even if not ready for some time.)
I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.
Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.
Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.
Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...
Ed Conway @EdConwaySky · 6h The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year. It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants. This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.
Comments
The jolly friendship with China is over
Surely you can’t have a scenario where those criticized can influence the final report and get the criticisms muted, if that’s the case then what’s the point of the whole thing .
We're doing quite well at the moment, but the summer could be quite difficult.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/sportsnews/article-9331723/Harry-Maguire-given-huge-boost-Mykonos-appeal-hearing-Covid-19-pandemic.html
I said if the Morrison coalition had a degree of Chinese Australians in it before Aukus, they may have swung out of it post aukus, you clearly didn’t even read my post to get all this claim of Australia swinging away from Aukus claptrap.
You heard merely what you wanted to hear, even though it wasn’t even being said. (Except maybe by someone in another post other than mine)
The Nasdaq is down about 20% over the last months, FTSE 100 stable, FTSE250 down a bit but not 30% etc.
There's gonna be blips but negative interest rates is negative interest rates
Also, the naming doesn’t seem to be a shaming exercise. It’s more that she’s naming people as part of her description of what happened, so, e.g., on this date a leaving party for X was held. Therefore X gets warned that X is being named.
But that’s just my best understanding so far and we seem to be largely going on leaks and rumours at the moment.
He may not pull out of AUUKUS but he will certainly be more pro Beijing than Morrison
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Albanese
Mykonos USED to be marvellous. Such a sexy place.
I can remember when - age 22 - my then super cute girlfriend (age 19) decided, on Mykonos, to go not only topless but completely nude. Every day
It blew my fuses. The sight of her emerging naked from the sea, like Venus in the waves. OMFG. And she was ridiculously hot
SIGH
Tell us that story about you being in prison again.
A victory for Russia is not possible at this stage. Their leadership has made a gross error that has resulted in a huge strategic defeat for the country.
A victory is still possible for Putin. In my view complete control of Donetsk and Luhansk would could as victory for the “special military operation” (…our people are safe…)
I think the defence of Mariupol has made it too iconic for Zelensky to give it up… but Putin can point to the destruction of the Azov Brigade as an important step.
I would put this scenario at a 30% chance, but this is why the UK is working so hard to push the western alliance onwards. They see that Russia is on the ground and want to damage them as much as possible. Opportunities like this are infrequent & the UK is not Russia’s friend. Germany and France are more interested in being Russia’s friend as they can make more money that way.
Or Ed Davey's Fairly Secret Army.
He will be the most leftwing Australian PM since Gough Whitlam. He may not be Corbyn and may not rip up AUUKUS but he will still shift Australia left
https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/chinas-global-times-backs-anthony-albanese-as-prime-minister-as-questions-mount-over-labors-ties-with-beijing/news-story/2c0f4226a802df781026bcd967ca9f25
I would say I would be content with that outcome, especially as 14 years conservative or conservative led governments is a very long time
Time for change will be very popular
I wonder if it was the same girl?
Currently it is ahead in 75 seats, one short of a majority too
https://www.pollbludger.net/fed2022/Results/
I think it matters - the ALP are yet to embrace anything like the Green (or teal) manifesto in terms of the threat of climate change.
And for that he gets kicked out of office?
I get the sense Aussies have gone for the other guy out of sheer boredom
This is what I hear from apolitical people all the time, and indeed I flagged this from my elephant-like radar ears some weeks ago. People say about Keir: 'maybe he's just about all right', ' I don't mind him too much really'. High praise these days.
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/1528000996345094144
One other thought- whilst I'm sure that replacing BoJo with Jeremy Douglas-Home would minimise the scale of the losses for the Conservatives, it might come at a very high price. The cult of St Margaret the Martyr sent the Conservative Party dolally from 1990 to at least 2005, possibly all the way to 2020. A Johnson pushed out unwillingly by the party could cast an even worse shadow over his successor. Defeat at the hands of the general public might look cruel (and keeping Johnson in No 10 is not in the national interest), but it is nature's way.
https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1528009400169947137?s=20&t=Or0fl3yuemkJ1bOER6U7sA
I'm not counting any chickens.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_New_Zealand_general_election
Really, the only way out for the Conservatives is to deliver an economic recovery - and that probably means getting rid of both Boris and Sunak.
But you know who could?
Keir Starmer.
Mr Murphy, branch manager for Slab, and his claim he wouldn't lose a single seat to the SNP, 2015. Delphic or what?
https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-jim-murphy-fan-club/
A recent trip to Portugal convinced me we should see more portuguese whites. Douro red is a supermarket staple now, but the only white they tend to have is Vinho Verde, when there is so much more to Portuguese whites.
Outgoing French foreign minister openly delighted at Scott Morrison's electoral defeat. Le Drian took AUKUS personally, having been defence minister when France and Australia signed the submarines deal.
https://twitter.com/spignal/status/1528017118616244224
Ed Conway
@EdConwaySky
·
6h
The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473
“Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And weak men create hard times".
The view is that Russian soldiers (and soldiers under other dictatorships) are hard, tough, invincible, when pitted against the weak, soft, citizens of democracies, who will cave in to their enemies, just to get another 0.25% on GDP.
I would venture the opinion that actually, liberal democracies are better at waging war than almost any dictatorship.
*Flowery Twats* before the watershed.
They go spectacularly well with seafood, as you’d expect
Slovenian whites are often nice, as well, and also notably good value
Almost anywhere on earth that can theoretically - climate, soil, investment. - make decent wine, is now doing so. I’ve had highly drinkable wines from Bolivia, Ethiopia, China
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink
Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead
Dark times ahead.
Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.
'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
Johnson out next, this is a Labour decade.
'Centrica (British Gas) shut the storage facility in 2017 after the government refused to subsidise its maintenance. The facility is actually a former gas field in the North Sea. I am sure if govt wanted to it could be reopened with engineering on the closed shore site. https://t.co/UHbdipyEE5'
So at the moment we can't make use of the current glut for the winter.
This is criminally irresponsible behaviour by a so called Tory Government. Why hasn't it been reversed along with a package of other measures to ease the impact of the cost of living crisis?
As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
(And yes I entirely agree. It should have been got going asap this spring already, even if not ready for some time.)
She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.