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The LDs select a retired Major to fight Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited June 3 in General
imageThe LDs select a retired Major to fight Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

The LDs have chosen retired Army Major, Richard Foord to be their candidate in the June 23rd Tiverton & Honiton by-election where the Tories are defending a 24k majority that was achieved at GE2019. The party wasn’t even in second place then yet the money has been piling on the party following the announcement of their selection.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,523
    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Victory for Russia and "victory" declared by Putin are not necessarily the same thing.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114
    edited May 21
    2nd, presumably unlike the LD gent. As I noted the other day, he's a farmer so has a cast iron excuse to look at tractor mags.
  • JACK_WJACK_W Posts: 584
    Certainly a major development ..
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994
    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Hopefully the Conservatives pick a local female councillor, their best chance of holding the seat
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 15,523
    Major Foord. Hmm. My rule of thumb is that major is a high-risk rank. Aiui, the British Army does some serious filtering out before promotion to colonel, whereas any time-served officer will eventually rise to major provided he does not pass the port the wrong way. This leads to a surfeit of passed-over majors returned to civilian life.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 30,750
    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    That's a question I've been asking all along about this: when people talk about one side or the other 'winning', how do they define 'win' ?

    It's probable that both sides will lose; it's just a case of which 'loses' more. ATM that's looking more like Russia.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,032
    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    By 'pivot their exports to China' do you mean sell at the price China decides to pay ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    puissant paddy Ashdown had a similar background.

    And similar great smile! 👍🏻
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,596

    Major Foord. Hmm. My rule of thumb is that major is a high-risk rank. Aiui, the British Army does some serious filtering out before promotion to colonel, whereas any time-served officer will eventually rise to major provided he does not pass the port the wrong way. This leads to a surfeit of passed-over majors returned to civilian life.

    The British forces don't really do "up or out" like the US. Hence 57 year old Flight Lieutenants, etc.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
    Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    HYUFD said:

    Hopefully the Conservatives pick a local female councillor, their best chance of holding the seat

    What about the former MPs wife?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    By 'pivot their exports to China' do you mean sell at the price China decides to pay ?
    Quite. China will have its boot on Putin’s neck

    I doubt that was his intention when he first invaded
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,723
    Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet.
    Bye bye ScoMo.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,032
    Dura_Ace said:

    Major Foord. Hmm. My rule of thumb is that major is a high-risk rank. Aiui, the British Army does some serious filtering out before promotion to colonel, whereas any time-served officer will eventually rise to major provided he does not pass the port the wrong way. This leads to a surfeit of passed-over majors returned to civilian life.

    The British forces don't really do "up or out" like the US. Hence 57 year old Flight Lieutenants, etc.
    Is that by necessity or choice ?

    Some people are very good at a certain job but would be much less effective at a higher level.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,967
    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
    Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
    Does not matter, russia and Putin have to get a bloody nose right here and now else we will be back here again in a decade
  • There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    I think the LDs holding Chesham and Amersham at the GE is quite possible even if its only a 50/50 chance. I'm inclined to agree on North Shropshire and Tiverton though.

    There is still a potential by election on the horizon in Somerton and Frome as well where they've got a candidate which should be a much easier gain.

    I think Somerset is the main bellwether area for an LD recovery TBH, to get 30-35+ seats they'd need to be winning the likes of Taunton at least.

    Psychologically a by election win in Tiverton is still a good narrative for the LDs in the SW though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    Should be noted if as projected Albanese forms a Labor government in Australia, either majority or minority after today's election then the UK will be the only Anglosphere or major European nation or G7 nation outside Japan still with a Conservative government.

    Albeit the GOP might win November's midterms and the right are ahead in Italian polls
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
    Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
    I disagree. Certainly in the AUKUS, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe (ex Hungary) I believe people have accepted that Putin must be defeated and Russia forced into retreat

    Core mainland Western Europe - France, Germany, Italy - I am less convinced, but they are a bunch of Fascist surrender merchants anyway
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    edited May 21
    dixiedean said:

    Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet.
    Bye bye ScoMo.

    I see some discussion of Queensland last thread. When I was last there (admittedly 3 decades ago) it made the Deep South in America look liberal and progressive once north of Brisbane.

    Homosexuality was illegal, and loads of aboriginal deaths in custody. Premier Jo was quite something.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joh_Bjelke-Petersen#:~:text=Sir Johannes Bjelke-Petersen KCMG,state underwent considerable economic development.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,812

    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,723
    HYUFD said:

    Should be noted if as projected Albanese forms a Labor government in Australia, either majority or minority after today's election then the UK will be the only Anglosphere or major European nation or G7 nation outside Japan still with a Conservative government.

    Albeit the GOP might win November's midterms and the right are ahead in Italian polls

    Yep. Right hasn't won a major election since Boris. Japan doesn't count, as it isn't a competition.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,967
    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
    Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
    I disagree. Certainly in the AUKUS, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe (ex Hungary) I believe people have accepted that Putin must be defeated and Russia forced into retreat

    Core mainland Western Europe - France, Germany, Italy - I am less convinced, but they are a bunch of Fascist surrender merchants anyway
    GaryL new poster, pro surrender, the wests will to help will crumble. Benefit of the doubt for now but seems suspicious to me
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994

    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    I think the LDs holding Chesham and Amersham at the GE is quite possible even if its only a 50/50 chance. I'm inclined to agree on North Shropshire and Tiverton though.

    There is still a potential by election on the horizon in Somerton and Frome as well where they've got a candidate which should be a much easier gain.

    I think Somerset is the main bellwether area for an LD recovery TBH, to get 30-35+ seats they'd need to be winning the likes of Taunton at least.

    Psychologically a by election win in Tiverton is still a good narrative for the LDs in the SW though.
    Chesham just about possible I guess but I still favour Tory Regain.
    Somerton would be an easier hold if it fell, agreed
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,032
    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    By 'pivot their exports to China' do you mean sell at the price China decides to pay ?
    Quite. China will have its boot on Putin’s neck

    I doubt that was his intention when he first invaded
    An echo of how the Russian dukes were vassals of the Golden Horde.

    And so five centuries of Russian independence ends.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,596

    Dura_Ace said:

    Major Foord. Hmm. My rule of thumb is that major is a high-risk rank. Aiui, the British Army does some serious filtering out before promotion to colonel, whereas any time-served officer will eventually rise to major provided he does not pass the port the wrong way. This leads to a surfeit of passed-over majors returned to civilian life.

    The British forces don't really do "up or out" like the US. Hence 57 year old Flight Lieutenants, etc.
    Is that by necessity or choice ?

    Some people are very good at a certain job but would be much less effective at a higher level.
    Just different cultures. Both approaches have their advantages and disadvantages.

    It's only a slight exaggeration to say that the US only want commissioned officers who want to become, and believe they will become, CJCS. The British forces have lots of peculiar niches into which timeservers and alcoholics can disappear and never be noticed or promoted again until they hit mandatory retirement.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
    Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
    Russia's economy is completely fucked and the only thing propping up the ruble is very high interest rates relative to other economies. Once the West ups interest rates to contain inflation, the Russian economy is going to take another shellacking.

    It turns out that Putin's deep insecurity about being a flabby chested midget has completely fucked Russia as a country. He was a middle management bureaucrat plucked out of obscurity by the drunk Yeltsin, and now he is going to be a worse president than him. Of course, his desperate machoness might be driven by even greater lacks of maculine endowment.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    Pagan2 said:

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
    Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
    I disagree. Certainly in the AUKUS, Scandinavia and Eastern Europe (ex Hungary) I believe people have accepted that Putin must be defeated and Russia forced into retreat

    Core mainland Western Europe - France, Germany, Italy - I am less convinced, but they are a bunch of Fascist surrender merchants anyway
    GaryL new poster, pro surrender, the wests will to help will crumble. Benefit of the doubt for now but seems suspicious to me
    Also, slightly odd punctuation. Almost as if the output is generated by a shonky computer missing a few important spare parts stranded outside the Russian border
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 19,157
    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
    Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
    Why should asset prices crash at a time of runaway inflation?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,569
    JACK_W said:

    Certainly a major development ..

    He meet with your General approval?
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,080
    No 10 claim Sue Gray requested the meeting. Sue Gray says she didn't. Someone is lying. I know who I would believe. Maybe they just bumped into one another in the street.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 1,455
    Dura_Ace said:

    Major Foord. Hmm. My rule of thumb is that major is a high-risk rank. Aiui, the British Army does some serious filtering out before promotion to colonel, whereas any time-served officer will eventually rise to major provided he does not pass the port the wrong way. This leads to a surfeit of passed-over majors returned to civilian life.

    The British forces don't really do "up or out" like the US. Hence 57 year old Flight Lieutenants, etc.
    Do they still do the courtesy rank upgrade on retirement? I used to meet a lot of Majors of a certain vintage who on further discovery had only served up to captain but for some reason were retired as Majors.

    It’s a rank that inevitably makes me think of Majors in seaside resorts like fawlty towers!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,967
    Dura_Ace said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Major Foord. Hmm. My rule of thumb is that major is a high-risk rank. Aiui, the British Army does some serious filtering out before promotion to colonel, whereas any time-served officer will eventually rise to major provided he does not pass the port the wrong way. This leads to a surfeit of passed-over majors returned to civilian life.

    The British forces don't really do "up or out" like the US. Hence 57 year old Flight Lieutenants, etc.
    Is that by necessity or choice ?

    Some people are very good at a certain job but would be much less effective at a higher level.
    Just different cultures. Both approaches have their advantages and disadvantages.

    It's only a slight exaggeration to say that the US only want commissioned officers who want to become, and believe they will become, CJCS. The British forces have lots of peculiar niches into which timeservers and alcoholics can disappear and never be noticed or promoted again until they hit mandatory retirement.
    I would imagine in the military once past a certain point that how good are you at your job becomes superceded by who you know and who's butt you lick. People being delusional enough to think they can get to the top just by being excellent at what they do? Do you really want those in the forces or would you rather have people who say. I have found a level at which I am competent I dont want to be promoted past it and become incompetent.
  • AslanAslan Posts: 1,673

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    By 'pivot their exports to China' do you mean sell at the price China decides to pay ?
    Quite. China will have its boot on Putin’s neck

    I doubt that was his intention when he first invaded
    An echo of how the Russian dukes were vassals of the Golden Horde.

    And so five centuries of Russian independence ends.
    Yes, that's right. The Kievan Rus was a splendid civilization that drove constitutionalism and innovation. Muscovy just got where it was through being the exploitative tax collector that sold out its Slavic kin for Asian overlords.

    Ukraine's heritage has always been more noble than Russia.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,596
    Pagan2 said:



    GaryL new poster, pro surrender, the wests will to help will crumble. Benefit of the doubt for now but seems suspicious to me

    Sleep with one eye open.


  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    IshmaelZ said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Russian ruble is the strongest major currency this year Russian economy ain't great but they will pivot their exports to China and India Also it will take a while for Germany to wean itself off Russian gas This is a waiting game with Putin's strategy to inflict economic pain on the West thinking we will buckle first
    Putin fatally miscalculated the resolve of the West
    Already people are worried about inflation and energy bills this will only get worse as we head into the winter then you combine that with crashing asset prices The West's resolve hasn't really been tested yet and Already most people are losing interest in this war
    Why should asset prices crash at a time of runaway inflation?
    Asset prices will crash whilst the fed is raising rates but the fed will be forced to pivot likely due to problems in the credit markets which will lead to accelerating inflation
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,569

    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    That would make an interesting bet, Woolie. What odds are you offering against the LDs holding the seat at the next GE?

    We can take it they are solid odds on to win the by-election but if you are saying they are odds against to retain at the follow-up I think there might be one or two punters interested in taking that on.


  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,967
    Dura_Ace said:

    Pagan2 said:



    GaryL new poster, pro surrender, the wests will to help will crumble. Benefit of the doubt for now but seems suspicious to me

    Sleep with one eye open.


    shrugs we have had russian trolls here before so hardly paranoia and the messages posted seem consistently russia is winning, the wests will is crumbling, continue the war and you will get hyper inflation.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,246

    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
    I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 18,405
    Good to see Labor winning again.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    When did you first visit Greece?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 50,178
    Whoops a daisy. On top of an invigilator shortage the exam boards have now buggered up the courier service:

    https://www.tes.com/magazine/news/secondary/exams-2022-failed-collections-mean-thousands-exam-papers-could-be-lost

    This would be a joke if it were in any way funny.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
    It really is lovable

    i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless

    The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme

    *Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:

    https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/tselepos+driopi+rsrv+nemea+peloponnese+greece/1/uk

    The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious

    Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994

    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    That would make an interesting bet, Woolie. What odds are you offering against the LDs holding the seat at the next GE?

    We can take it they are solid odds on to win the by-election but if you are saying they are odds against to retain at the follow-up I think there might be one or two punters interested in taking that on.


    I'm not. When I'm prepared to risk money I'll let you know. I'm not prefacing every post with 'in my opinion' as I thought it would be obvious that every post is the posters opinion, however I can confirm that if I am looking for action I'll post to that effect.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    GaryL has been predicting an “asset crash” for a full day now.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
    It really is lovable

    i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless

    The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme

    *Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:

    https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/tselepos+driopi+rsrv+nemea+peloponnese+greece/1/uk

    The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious

    Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
    What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 33,420
    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    Not too many fascist surrender monkeys hanging about?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,569

    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    That would make an interesting bet, Woolie. What odds are you offering against the LDs holding the seat at the next GE?

    We can take it they are solid odds on to win the by-election but if you are saying they are odds against to retain at the follow-up I think there might be one or two punters interested in taking that on.


    I'm not. When I'm prepared to risk money I'll let you know. I'm not prefacing every post with 'in my opinion' as I thought it would be obvious that every post is the posters opinion, however I can confirm that if I am looking for action I'll post to that effect.
    But hypothetically, what odds would you reckon?

    It is a betting site, after all.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    Labor pulling ahead now.

    Narrow majority. Will govern alone or perhaps with the Greens.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    Is it me or is some of the language reporting on the Aussie results a bit weird? The BBC summary talks about Labor forming the next government, naturally, but adds 'incumbent PM Scott MOrrison will be removed from power', which for some reason reads strangely to me. Was it a question in doubt that the person who doesn't win will not be PM any longer?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 16,147
    edited May 21
    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    Ukrainians who don't want to live under Russian occupation mostly move to the uninvaded parts of Ukraine. Others get forcibly transported to some random bit of Russia, and Russians moved into the places they were kicked out of. They have ongoing terrorism and an expensive occupation, but you can sustain that kind of thing for decades. Domestically you get to crackdown on any and all opponents in response to sabotage and terrorism.

    The EU is weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, but it remains to be seen if they stick with that once the news moves on. Over time, build infrastructure to get it to China and India, which are growing way faster than the EU in any case. The market will gradually develop routes that get around sanctions, and Chinese companies will take the opportunity to build industries where they couldn't otherwise complete with the west.

    Russia controls Ukraine's fossil fuel deposits (in the east) and whatever is left of its industry (in the south) and throttles its shipping routes, so Ukraine is an economic basketcase dependent on western support. Whatever Ukraine is, it isn't a prosperous, successful democracy that shows Russians that it's better to get rid of your kleptocracy.

    None of this is *good* for Russia, but if they can avoid losing the war on the ground then the rest seems kind of survivable for Putin. Ultimately if you're producing loads of oil and the world is buying loads of oil then quite a lot of other problems will take care of themselves.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    Not too many fascist surrender monkeys hanging about?
    No those are the doctors receptionists lol
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    When did you first visit Greece?
    About 35 years ago. I came a few times as a young man, then never visited for decades, but I have rediscovered its pleasures. The wine is now fantastic, and it used to be awful

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 77,088
    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pagan2 said:



    GaryL new poster, pro surrender, the wests will to help will crumble. Benefit of the doubt for now but seems suspicious to me

    Sleep with one eye open.


    shrugs we have had russian trolls here before so hardly paranoia and the messages posted seem consistently russia is winning, the wests will is crumbling, continue the war and you will get hyper inflation.
    It's just attention seeking, pretending anyone who raised such a concern is being unreasonable.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    Jonathan said:

    Good to see Labor winning again.

    THEY HAVE WON!

    Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah!

    I can’t wait to get it on my pad and wave in front my mums face when I get home.

    This can be one of the best days EVER
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,032
    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
    It really is lovable

    i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless

    The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme

    *Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:

    https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/tselepos+driopi+rsrv+nemea+peloponnese+greece/1/uk

    The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious

    Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
    Is that because it tastes like an elegant super Tuscan three times the price or because you cannot tell the difference between a £13 bottle and a £40 bottle ?

    And I'm not sure why anyone should want a super refined wine tasting palate if the result is you need to spend £50 to get the enjoyment someone else gets for spending £5 on a bottle.
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994

    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    That would make an interesting bet, Woolie. What odds are you offering against the LDs holding the seat at the next GE?

    We can take it they are solid odds on to win the by-election but if you are saying they are odds against to retain at the follow-up I think there might be one or two punters interested in taking that on.


    I'm not. When I'm prepared to risk money I'll let you know. I'm not prefacing every post with 'in my opinion' as I thought it would be obvious that every post is the posters opinion, however I can confirm that if I am looking for action I'll post to that effect.
    But hypothetically, what odds would you reckon?

    It is a betting site, after all.
    Hypothetically I'd put the chances of a LD hold in Tiverton or N Shropshire at under 10% (so very highly to extremely unlikely). Chesham, on reflection, maybe 25 to 35% chance of a hold.
    Somerton if it went, maybe similar to Chesham.
    Obviously on any LD national recovery beyond the current 11% or so or on further Tory decline that chance increases
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
    It really is lovable

    i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless

    The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme

    *Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:

    https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/tselepos+driopi+rsrv+nemea+peloponnese+greece/1/uk

    The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious

    Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
    What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
    It certainly is, or at least it was.

    I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)

    So my advice is avoid, sadly.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,739
    dixiedean said:

    Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet.
    Bye bye ScoMo.

    So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,569
    edited May 21
    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    When did you first visit Greece?
    About 35 years ago. I came a few times as a young man, then never visited for decades, but I have rediscovered its pleasures. The wine is now fantastic, and it used to be awful

    It used to be that the only two wines widely available were Retsina and Demestica. The former tasted like shoe resin, and the latter was rumoured to be a spin-off from Domestos.

    I gather things have improved a bit?
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994

    Jonathan said:

    Good to see Labor winning again.

    THEY HAVE WON!

    Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah!

    I can’t wait to get it on my pad and wave in front my mums face when I get home.

    This can be one of the best days EVER
    Labor to narrowly lose a republic referendum within the next 4 years?!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21

    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    I would say C&A is "hold-able". It has more in common with the other "Blue Wall" seats in the home counties that the LDs are targeting.
    I am sure that is right assuming the Tories have a voter-friendly leader by then. But if Johnson is still there then anything can happen. The big message from the locals was that Johnson is a massive negative
    Do you really think a new Tory leader would make the slightest difference? As Australia confirms today the trend across the western world at the moment is to the centre left, liberal left, Boris is now the only conservative leader left in the G7, Anglosphere or any major western European nation for example. It is Boris who has defied the global tide and led the Tories to victory in 2019 after all.

    We may well be entering into a centre left decade like the 1990s which followed the largely conservative decade of the 1980s, I doubt any Tory leader could defy that. After 10 years in power it is very difficult for any party to win again
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
    It really is lovable

    i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless

    The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme

    *Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:

    https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/tselepos+driopi+rsrv+nemea+peloponnese+greece/1/uk

    The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious

    Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
    Is that because it tastes like an elegant super Tuscan three times the price or because you cannot tell the difference between a £13 bottle and a £40 bottle ?

    And I'm not sure why anyone should want a super refined wine tasting palate if the result is you need to spend £50 to get the enjoyment someone else gets for spending £5 on a bottle.
    Have you ever tried a 50 pound bottle of wine or do you stick to the cheap stuff
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
    It really is lovable

    i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless

    The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme

    *Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:

    https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/tselepos+driopi+rsrv+nemea+peloponnese+greece/1/uk

    The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious

    Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
    What do you think of mykonos is it worth visiting
    It certainly is, or at least it was.

    I say this because apparently it has been overwhelmed by wealthy status-conscious tourists, as happened to St Tropez or Capri or the Costa Smeralda in earlier times, so now it is - I am told - horribly expensive and crowded (as are those places)

    So my advice is avoid, sadly.
    Yep that's what I've heard too,,,I think footballers and the like go there now
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 22,723
    edited May 21
    Worth noting the 2pp is coming in at 4.8%.
    Pretty much in line with the polling.
    WA has brought that back. 8.6% swing there.
    11.6 lead on 2pp.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 10,569

    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    That would make an interesting bet, Woolie. What odds are you offering against the LDs holding the seat at the next GE?

    We can take it they are solid odds on to win the by-election but if you are saying they are odds against to retain at the follow-up I think there might be one or two punters interested in taking that on.


    I'm not. When I'm prepared to risk money I'll let you know. I'm not prefacing every post with 'in my opinion' as I thought it would be obvious that every post is the posters opinion, however I can confirm that if I am looking for action I'll post to that effect.
    But hypothetically, what odds would you reckon?

    It is a betting site, after all.
    Hypothetically I'd put the chances of a LD hold in Tiverton or N Shropshire at under 10% (so very highly to extremely unlikely). Chesham, on reflection, maybe 25 to 35% chance of a hold.
    Somerton if it went, maybe similar to Chesham.
    Obviously on any LD national recovery beyond the current 11% or so or on further Tory decline that chance increases
    So you are making it about a 14/1 shot? Interesting.

    May I respectfully suggest you do not publicly offer such odds as you may be injured by the stampede.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    Swings to the Liberals in Tasmania.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 4,967
    kle4 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    Pagan2 said:



    GaryL new poster, pro surrender, the wests will to help will crumble. Benefit of the doubt for now but seems suspicious to me

    Sleep with one eye open.


    shrugs we have had russian trolls here before so hardly paranoia and the messages posted seem consistently russia is winning, the wests will is crumbling, continue the war and you will get hyper inflation.
    It's just attention seeking, pretending anyone who raised such a concern is being unreasonable.
    I was noting it because he was a new poster and seems to be posting mostly russians winning here stuff was all and not much else.I have hardly been one of those before calling out suspected russian trolls. I raised it as speculation only and also said benefit of the doubt for now and if he starts posting on general topics too then fair play was wrong.

    Personally I think opinions are hardening against russia myself but thats just people I talk to as I dont go out of my way to talk about the whole thing ex here as its too bloody depressing.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    dixiedean said:

    Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet.
    Bye bye ScoMo.

    So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
    Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.

    Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 8,968
    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    The route to victory for Russia is through Western disunity. Suppose the war enters a stalemate with roughly the present front lines. The war drags on as Europe and the US enter recession with inflation over 10%.

    Ukrainian casualties, military and civilian are high, and the shattered economy is entirely reliant on financial support from the West - whose governments are under pressure to find money to help their struggling economies.

    Ukraine thus is under strong external and some internal pressure to agree to a truce. A truce happens. Ukraine is split politically between those who are relieved that the dying has paused and those outraged that more territory has been lost to Russia. Since the whole country is under arms this outrage expresses itself violently. There are reprisals. Western weapons are used by Ukrainians against Ukrainians, discrediting support for Ukraine.

    The urgency for Europe to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels abates. Russia has a breathing space to organise sales to new markets in China, India and Africa, and to use that income to rebuild its armed forces.

    When they are ready to resume the attack on Ukraine again, internal divisions have weakened Ukraine, and its leadership is less resolute. Russia is able to complete the conquest of the Black Sea coast and force a permanent treaty on a shattered Ukraine that sees it ceding territory.

    I don't say it's likely, but it's not impossible that our resolve breaks before the Russians do. The only way to avoid this outcome is to provide maximum support for Ukraine so that they can achieve victory on the battlefield as quickly as possible.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,739
    On topic, the retired Major you say?

    All I can think about is Fawlty Towers now.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398

    Jonathan said:

    Good to see Labor winning again.

    THEY HAVE WON!

    Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah!

    I can’t wait to get it on my pad and wave in front my mums face when I get home.

    This can be one of the best days EVER
    Labor to narrowly lose a republic referendum within the next 4 years?!
    Is republic such a big Labor thing? I associate that with Turnbull.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
    It really is lovable

    i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless

    The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme

    *Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:

    https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/tselepos+driopi+rsrv+nemea+peloponnese+greece/1/uk

    The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious

    Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
    Is that because it tastes like an elegant super Tuscan three times the price or because you cannot tell the difference between a £13 bottle and a £40 bottle ?

    And I'm not sure why anyone should want a super refined wine tasting palate if the result is you need to spend £50 to get the enjoyment someone else gets for spending £5 on a bottle.
    Ah, but my palate is now so refined I’ve learned to zero in on the up-and-coming wine areas where you get the bargains (ie, no way I would spend £50 on a super Tuscan, it is a waste of money)

    For great value red go for Greece, the Balkans, Moldova, and Portugal, or high altitude Argentine Malbecs (this is in terms of what you can get in the UK)

    For whites try southern Portugal, Greece, obscure bits of France. Oz and NZ are pricing themselves out of the market, Kiwi Sauv Blanc is now insanely pricey

    Quality sparkles: England! (Tho the value is less good, this is probably my patriotism talking)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,032
    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    GaryL said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    I love the med at this time of the year mate perfect weather
    It really is lovable

    i actually don’t mind serious heat - I prefer it to serious cold - but this is flawless

    The only problem is the mosquitoes. Quite infernal at night when you want to sit on the balcony sipping Nemea red*, but it’s minor in the grander scheme

    *Speaking of which I drank my best Greek red ever, last night:

    https://www.wine-searcher.com/find/tselepos+driopi+rsrv+nemea+peloponnese+greece/1/uk

    The Agiorgitiko grape. Never heard of it before. Bloody delicious

    Costs £13 in a Greek wine shop but tastes like an elegant superTuscan three times the price
    Is that because it tastes like an elegant super Tuscan three times the price or because you cannot tell the difference between a £13 bottle and a £40 bottle ?

    And I'm not sure why anyone should want a super refined wine tasting palate if the result is you need to spend £50 to get the enjoyment someone else gets for spending £5 on a bottle.
    Have you ever tried a 50 pound bottle of wine or do you stick to the cheap stuff
    I can detect the taste difference between a £5 and a £25 bottle (recommended a decade or so ago by a certain Mr Thomas) but it didn't give me any more enjoyment.

    As I drink wine with food there is even less reason to spend more for some perceived taste experience.

    For enjoyment/cost McGuigan's black label has the best ratio for my personal taste - often available at under £5.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923

    Jonathan said:

    Good to see Labor winning again.

    THEY HAVE WON!

    Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah!

    I can’t wait to get it on my pad and wave in front my mums face when I get home.

    This can be one of the best days EVER
    Labor to narrowly lose a republic referendum within the next 4 years?!
    There was no republic referendum in the Labor manifesto this time unlike 2019, Albanese said it was not a priority for his first term.

    There probably will be one if Labor is re elected and after all the last one in Australia was 23 years ago but it is still some way off
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,596

    dixiedean said:

    Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet.
    Bye bye ScoMo.

    So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
    Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.

    Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
    Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828

    Leon said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Have I mentioned that Sivota is lovely?

    Because: it is

    Also late May is just heaven in northern Greece, or so it turns out

    Clear blue skies every day, 28C in the sun, but a slight cooling breeze. The sea glitters in its sleep. Sublime

    When did you first visit Greece?
    About 35 years ago. I came a few times as a young man, then never visited for decades, but I have rediscovered its pleasures. The wine is now fantastic, and it used to be awful

    It used to be that the only two wines widely available were Retsina and Demestica. The former tasted like shoe resin, and the latter was rumoured to be a spin-off from Domestos.

    I gather things have improved a bit?

    Just a tad

    OMG remember retsina??? Jesus F Christ the hangovers

    You would wake up bitten to shit by the mozzies and with your head apparently being power-drilled by the KGB, and the heat was already intense and the aircon didn’t work. Not nice

    It’s actually quite hard to find retsina now; this does not sadden me
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994
    edited May 21

    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    That would make an interesting bet, Woolie. What odds are you offering against the LDs holding the seat at the next GE?

    We can take it they are solid odds on to win the by-election but if you are saying they are odds against to retain at the follow-up I think there might be one or two punters interested in taking that on.


    I'm not. When I'm prepared to risk money I'll let you know. I'm not prefacing every post with 'in my opinion' as I thought it would be obvious that every post is the posters opinion, however I can confirm that if I am looking for action I'll post to that effect.
    But hypothetically, what odds would you reckon?

    It is a betting site, after all.
    Hypothetically I'd put the chances of a LD hold in Tiverton or N Shropshire at under 10% (so very highly to extremely unlikely). Chesham, on reflection, maybe 25 to 35% chance of a hold.
    Somerton if it went, maybe similar to Chesham.
    Obviously on any LD national recovery beyond the current 11% or so or on further Tory decline that chance increases
    So you are making it about a 14/1 shot? Interesting.

    May I respectfully suggest you do not publicly offer such odds as you may be injured by the stampede.
    I haven't and won't. In the same way the hundreds and hundreds of other opinions on here expressed daily aren't offered as bets. 'I think you are vastly understating their chances' would suffice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21

    Jonathan said:

    Good to see Labor winning again.

    THEY HAVE WON!

    Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah!

    I can’t wait to get it on my pad and wave in front my mums face when I get home.

    This can be one of the best days EVER
    Labor to narrowly lose a republic referendum within the next 4 years?!
    Is republic such a big Labor thing? I associate that with Turnbull.
    Morrison was a monarchist as was John Howard as was Abbott. Turnbull is the only Liberal leader who has been a republican, Frydenberg, Morrison's Treasurer, was a republican too but has lost his seat so it is likely the conservative monarchist Peter Dutton, who held his seat, will replace Morrison as Liberal leader and become Leader of the Opposition.

    Albanese, like Shorten, Rudd and Gillard and Keating and virtually all Labor leaders and PMs is a republican but has said it is not a priority for now.

    Turnbull of course led the republican campaign in Australia in the 1999 referendum but monarchists won that 55% to 45%
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    The route to victory for Russia is through Western disunity. Suppose the war enters a stalemate with roughly the present front lines. The war drags on as Europe and the US enter recession with inflation over 10%.

    Ukrainian casualties, military and civilian are high, and the shattered economy is entirely reliant on financial support from the West - whose governments are under pressure to find money to help their struggling economies.

    Ukraine thus is under strong external and some internal pressure to agree to a truce. A truce happens. Ukraine is split politically between those who are relieved that the dying has paused and those outraged that more territory has been lost to Russia. Since the whole country is under arms this outrage expresses itself violently. There are reprisals. Western weapons are used by Ukrainians against Ukrainians, discrediting support for Ukraine.

    The urgency for Europe to wean itself off Russian fossil fuels abates. Russia has a breathing space to organise sales to new markets in China, India and Africa, and to use that income to rebuild its armed forces.

    When they are ready to resume the attack on Ukraine again, internal divisions have weakened Ukraine, and its leadership is less resolute. Russia is able to complete the conquest of the Black Sea coast and force a permanent treaty on a shattered Ukraine that sees it ceding territory.

    I don't say it's likely, but it's not impossible that our resolve breaks before the Russians do. The only way to avoid this outcome is to provide maximum support for Ukraine so that they can achieve victory on the battlefield as quickly as possible.
    Fair enough, Russia has to get super-lucky to reach that place, however. I’d say the chances are less than 5%

    Putin was surely gambling on winning a terrifically swift victory, slaying Zelensky, marching into Kyiv in about 48 hours before we’d even really noticed

    A fait accompli. In that case, we might have shrugged and adjusted and sighed and beefed up our defences, but no more than that. Ie no sanctions. And that would have given him everything he wanted

    Now Putin needs an extraordinary amount of luck
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994

    Jonathan said:

    Good to see Labor winning again.

    THEY HAVE WON!

    Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah!

    I can’t wait to get it on my pad and wave in front my mums face when I get home.

    This can be one of the best days EVER
    Labor to narrowly lose a republic referendum within the next 4 years?!
    Is republic such a big Labor thing? I associate that with Turnbull.
    Albanese is a republican. I don't know if he had proposed a referendum but Gillard for example was keen 'when there was a change of monarch' and given HMQ age and health...... maybe they will propose it?
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 8,012
    I wonder how a Labor administration in Aus will affect AUUKUS. Traditionally Labor has regarded such dalliances with the Brits as the famous 'cultural cringe'. Moreover the Australian left was highly critical of Britain when we joined the Common Market, seeing it as an act of abandonment and betrayal, so I can't see them being that keen to help out Boris with his post-Brexit scrapes. Then add a Trump victory into the mix. AUUKUS might prove short lived.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114
    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet.
    Bye bye ScoMo.

    So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
    Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.

    Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
    Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
    It did quite well for Mr J, given the number of PB folk who, erm, got excited about it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21

    I wonder how a Labor administration in Aus will affect AUUKUS. Traditionally Labor has regarded such dalliances with the Brits as the famous 'cultural cringe'. Moreover the Australian left was highly critical of Britain when we joined the Common Market, seeing it as an act of abandonment and betrayal, so I can't see them being that keen to help out Boris with his post-Brexit scrapes. Then add a Trump victory into the mix. AUUKUS might prove short lived.

    Albanese also said he would commit to AUUKUS too, he is slightly more pro China than Morrison but still committed to the US and UK relationship.

    It is the Greens who are the real leftwing party in Australia rather than Labor, if he has to rely on their support that is what would really push an Albanese government left
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 6,398
    edited May 21
    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet.
    Bye bye ScoMo.

    So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
    Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.

    Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
    Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
    In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.

    In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.

    My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way

    Look forward to more rabbit droppings from me later, but I’m starting pre match drinking now
  • wooliedyedwooliedyed Posts: 3,994

    I wonder how a Labor administration in Aus will affect AUUKUS. Traditionally Labor has regarded such dalliances with the Brits as the famous 'cultural cringe'. Moreover the Australian left was highly critical of Britain when we joined the Common Market, seeing it as an act of abandonment and betrayal, so I can't see them being that keen to help out Boris with his post-Brexit scrapes. Then add a Trump victory into the mix. AUUKUS might prove short lived.

    Depends on how much advantage to Aus they see in it I think. And how much penalty is built into any withdrawal
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923

    Jonathan said:

    Good to see Labor winning again.

    THEY HAVE WON!

    Yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeah!

    I can’t wait to get it on my pad and wave in front my mums face when I get home.

    This can be one of the best days EVER
    Labor to narrowly lose a republic referendum within the next 4 years?!
    Is republic such a big Labor thing? I associate that with Turnbull.
    Albanese is a republican. I don't know if he had proposed a referendum but Gillard for example was keen 'when there was a change of monarch' and given HMQ age and health...... maybe they will propose it?
    As I already said Labor ruled out a monarchy referendum in its first term if it won
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,114

    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet.
    Bye bye ScoMo.

    So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
    Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.

    Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
    Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
    In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.

    In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.

    My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way
    And to be munched and digested again, in the proper Rabbit way, for full benefit.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828

    I wonder how a Labor administration in Aus will affect AUUKUS. Traditionally Labor has regarded such dalliances with the Brits as the famous 'cultural cringe'. Moreover the Australian left was highly critical of Britain when we joined the Common Market, seeing it as an act of abandonment and betrayal, so I can't see them being that keen to help out Boris with his post-Brexit scrapes. Then add a Trump victory into the mix. AUUKUS might prove short lived.

    No. There is bipartisan commitment to AUKUS. The Labor party quibbles about the deets but they want the subs and the alliance
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 100,923
    edited May 21
    Australian PM Scott Morrison has phoned Albanese to concede defeat and making concession speech now and announces he will step down as Liberal leader too

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-21/federal-election-live-blog-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese/101085640
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 16,923
    HYUFD said:

    Scott Morrison phoned Albanese to concede defeat and making concession speech now

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-05-21/federal-election-live-blog-scott-morrison-anthony-albanese/101085640

    A new dawn has broken...
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 14,513
    Albanese is pro-AUKUS, and had to reassure the electorate that he was firm on China too.

    No significant shift in foreign policy is expected from a Lab government.

    Albanese is less clubbable than Scott Morrison though so perhaps the momentum in certain relationships will be dented.
This discussion has been closed.