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The LDs select a retired Major to fight Tiverton & Honiton – politicalbetting.com

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  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Carnyx said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    Hidden in that thread is that they can't give British gas away yet retail gas prices are at record highs.
    That is astonishing. And also this on gas storage:

    'Centrica (British Gas) shut the storage facility in 2017 after the government refused to subsidise its maintenance. The facility is actually a former gas field in the North Sea. I am sure if govt wanted to it could be reopened with engineering on the closed shore site. https://t.co/UHbdipyEE5'

    So at the moment we can't make use of the current glut for the winter.

    This is criminally irresponsible behaviour by a so called Tory Government. Why hasn't it been reversed along with a package of other measures to ease the impact of the cost of living crisis?
    Interference with the free market, private market will sort it, innit.

    (And yes I entirely agree. It should have been got going asap this spring already, even if not ready for some time.)
    We wouldn't benefit as much from storage as the prices assume. Just like the greenhouses, our gas storage would be full with moderately priced gas, not cheap gas. Like when crude went negative, the current prices are artificially low because of the lack of buyers available to take delivery tomorrow.
  • sladeslade Posts: 2,041
    Another excellent stage of the Giro. Stage win for Simon Yates and Richard Carapaz into the maglia rosa. Ineos will now have to go to work in earnest.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677



    I’m not convinced that any of the last few PMs would have been able to resist pressure for “a deal”

    Ultimately we need to be careful to leave it to Zelensky to decide - we can be as militant as we like from our armchairs, but they're doing the actual fighting and dying. He's varied from setting his sights on total eviction of the Russians to saying that a diplomatic solution will be needed in the end. The Russians have also varied from implying they want to conquer the whole country to suggesting that it's really just about protecting their Donbas satellites. Unless someone wins outright, there will be a stalemate on the ground at some point, after which both sides may be up for a deal, and we shouldn't second-guess it, though insofar as it also involves lifting sanctions (e.g. to pay for reparations?) we may be asked by Ukraine to play a part. We should neither urge nor block a settlement.
    The Disney Prince could have got a better deal last month when Ukraine had the military momentum and initiative than whatever turd he ends up with now.

    One thing is for sure; he shouldn't count on the long term steadfastness of the west. That's not we roll.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    Hidden in that thread is that they can't give British gas away yet retail gas prices are at record highs.
    That is astonishing. And also this on gas storage:

    'Centrica (British Gas) shut the storage facility in 2017 after the government refused to subsidise its maintenance. The facility is actually a former gas field in the North Sea. I am sure if govt wanted to it could be reopened with engineering on the closed shore site. https://t.co/UHbdipyEE5'

    So at the moment we can't make use of the current glut for the winter.

    This is criminally irresponsible behaviour by a so called Tory Government. Why hasn't it been reversed along with a package of other measures to ease the impact of the cost of living crisis?

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    Hidden in that thread is that they can't give British gas away yet retail gas prices are at record highs.
    That is astonishing. And also this on gas storage:

    'Centrica (British Gas) shut the storage facility in 2017 after the government refused to subsidise its maintenance. The facility is actually a former gas field in the North Sea. I am sure if govt wanted to it could be reopened with engineering on the closed shore site. https://t.co/UHbdipyEE5'

    So at the moment we can't make use of the current glut for the winter.

    This is criminally irresponsible behaviour by a so called Tory Government. Why hasn't it been reversed along with a package of other measures to ease the impact of the cost of living crisis?
    To steal, and extend, an observation I saw elsewhere, it’s because the government’s policy strategy (level up!) is totally disconnected from its economic strategy (lower taxes!) which is totally estranged from its politico-fiscal strategy (raise taxes now and cut them on the eve of the next election!) which is totally divorced from the current reality (stagflation).
    I tend to think it's actually greenery. We have left the EU, but, and I am sorry to don the tinfoil, there is still a very strong global green agenda to accentuate a global crisis in energy, water, climate, etc. So there is an unofficial policy of (to name a few) closing reservoirs, not dredging, lack of water pipe maintenance, etc. Closing a gas storage facility makes a lot of sense seen in that light.

    It's not the opposite of good Government, it is the opposite of Government. It's misrule. And we deserve a lot better. And the optimist in me tells me that will come.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    Carnyx said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    Hidden in that thread is that they can't give British gas away yet retail gas prices are at record highs.
    That is astonishing. And also this on gas storage:

    'Centrica (British Gas) shut the storage facility in 2017 after the government refused to subsidise its maintenance. The facility is actually a former gas field in the North Sea. I am sure if govt wanted to it could be reopened with engineering on the closed shore site. https://t.co/UHbdipyEE5'

    So at the moment we can't make use of the current glut for the winter.

    This is criminally irresponsible behaviour by a so called Tory Government. Why hasn't it been reversed along with a package of other measures to ease the impact of the cost of living crisis?
    Interference with the free market, private market will sort it, innit.

    (And yes I entirely agree. It should have been got going asap this spring already, even if not ready for some time.)
    We wouldn't benefit as much from storage as the prices assume. Just like the greenhouses, our gas storage would be full with moderately priced gas, not cheap gas. Like when crude went negative, the current prices are artificially low because of the lack of buyers available to take delivery tomorrow.
    Quite. Was thinking more in terms of strategic security next winter.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    🫣I’ll never take the piss out of someone cheering Arsenal ever again ever
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
    Have you read the feeble article you posted? That's the debunking equivalent of being thrashed by the proverbial wet lettuce.

    Rock dust is being used in Perthshire to make record breaking vegetables, and is apparently now being exported for profit. Evidently the farmers using it must be suggestible dupes, and the football sized cabbages must be holographical projections. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/scotland-rock-dust-transform-soil


  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,434

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Just mentioned this to my beloved and as practical as ever she said

    'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
    Big G, cultivating votre jardin comme d’habitude.
    You mentioned earlier you thought Ardern will fall next year

    As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
    Short answer, yes.

    She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.
    Which is interesting because she was more popular than God when she won re-election in 2020, and widely feted across the West. In fact, I think you were a fan at the time too.

    A lot can change in 18 months.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,434

    Trump out. ScoMo out.

    Johnson out next, this is a Labour decade.

    Beware hubris.
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Just mentioned this to my beloved and as practical as ever she said

    'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
    Big G, cultivating votre jardin comme d’habitude.
    You mentioned earlier you thought Ardern will fall next year

    As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
    Short answer, yes.

    She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.
    Which is interesting because she was more popular than God when she won re-election in 2020, and widely feted across the West. In fact, I think you were a fan at the time too.

    A lot can change in 18 months.
    True heir to Blair. Even worked as one of his policy wonks.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,324

    There is pretty much zero chance of a hold at the GE, like N Shropshire and Chesham won't be held either. Even if the LDs hold on to all the protest voters (they won't), the bulk of the non voting by election lot are disenchanted Tories who then turn out at the next GE. The LDs are on about 11% nationally, not 20% plus

    That would make an interesting bet, Woolie. What odds are you offering against the LDs holding the seat at the next GE?

    We can take it they are solid odds on to win the by-election but if you are saying they are odds against to retain at the follow-up I think there might be one or two punters interested in taking that on.


    I'm not. When I'm prepared to risk money I'll let you know. I'm not prefacing every post with 'in my opinion' as I thought it would be obvious that every post is the posters opinion, however I can confirm that if I am looking for action I'll post to that effect.
    But hypothetically, what odds would you reckon?

    It is a betting site, after all.
    Hypothetically I'd put the chances of a LD hold in Tiverton or N Shropshire at under 10% (so very highly to extremely unlikely). Chesham, on reflection, maybe 25 to 35% chance of a hold.
    Somerton if it went, maybe similar to Chesham.
    Obviously on any LD national recovery beyond the current 11% or so or on further Tory decline that chance increases
    So you are making it about a 14/1 shot? Interesting.

    May I respectfully suggest you do not publicly offer such odds as you may be injured by the stampede.
    I haven't and won't. In the same way the hundreds and hundreds of other opinions on here expressed daily aren't offered as bets. 'I think you are vastly understating their chances' would suffice.
    Sure it would, but somehow it doesn't quite cut it in the same way as 'What do you make the odds?'
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
    Have you read the feeble article you posted? That's the debunking equivalent of being thrashed by the proverbial wet lettuce.

    Rock dust is being used in Perthshire to make record breaking vegetables, and is apparently now being exported for profit. Evidently the farmers using it must be suggestible dupes, and the football sized cabbages must be holographical projections. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/scotland-rock-dust-transform-soil


    Farmers SELLING the stuff. And that is rather an old account/.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Just mentioned this to my beloved and as practical as ever she said

    'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
    Big G, cultivating votre jardin comme d’habitude.
    You mentioned earlier you thought Ardern will fall next year

    As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
    Short answer, yes.

    She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.
    Which is interesting because she was more popular than God when she won re-election in 2020, and widely feted across the West. In fact, I think you were a fan at the time too.

    A lot can change in 18 months.
    No I have never been a fan, although I praise her response to the ChCh killing.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    Dura_Ace said:



    The Disney Prince could have got a better deal last month when Ukraine had the military momentum and initiative than whatever turd he ends up with now.

    One thing is for sure; he shouldn't count on the long term steadfastness of the west. That's not we roll.

    Probably. But both sides are only showing an interest in a deal when they're losing, and although the Russians have had a couple of good days, I expect they'll have bad ones too. The deal will potentially come at a moment when they both feel they're not getting any further.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Just mentioned this to my beloved and as practical as ever she said

    'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
    Big G, cultivating votre jardin comme d’habitude.
    You mentioned earlier you thought Ardern will fall next year

    As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
    Short answer, yes.

    She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.
    Which is interesting because she was more popular than God when she won re-election in 2020, and widely feted across the West. In fact, I think you were a fan at the time too.

    A lot can change in 18 months.
    True heir to Blair. Even worked as one of his policy wonks.
    No she didn’t.
    She had an admin job.
    She “allowed” her CV to be over-construed.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Off topic, but I can confidently state that Everything, everywhere, all at once, is the weirdest movie I have ever seen. And I would not have picked it, but according to IMDB the main male character played Short Round.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    This sounds a bit familiar to our Blue Wall discussions (from the Guardian blog), if you substitute "small Southern town" for "inner city". Morrison seems to have bet the farm on populism, and absent-mindedly lost his core middle-class professional vote.

    There will be time later to examine the trends, but it is clear that the Coalition’s defeat didn’t come in the traditional marginal seats of regional and outer suburban Australia, but rather in their heartland inner city seats, where both major parties went backwards. These are seats where the campaign was dominated by demands for stronger climate action, a change in the treatment of women in politics, and the establishment of an integrity commission with teeth.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,504
    Goal.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    Trump out. ScoMo out.

    Johnson out next, this is a Labour decade.

    Beware hubris.
    Trump could be back in 24, heavens preserve us
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    Carnyx said:

    Sometimes it feels like 24 might be 92 redux, but then I try to imagine Johnson doing an “Honest Boris” soapbox tour.

    But you know who could?
    Keir Starmer.

    Hmm. Soapbox. Labour. Election. *bell rings somewhere in the angular gyrus* *thinks* *light goes on*

    Mr Murphy, branch manager for Slab, and his claim he wouldn't lose a single seat to the SNP, 2015. Delphic or what?

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-jim-murphy-fan-club/
    But he was right, wasn't he? He didn't lose a single seat, he lost 39.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    edited May 2022

    Dura_Ace said:



    The Disney Prince could have got a better deal last month when Ukraine had the military momentum and initiative than whatever turd he ends up with now.

    One thing is for sure; he shouldn't count on the long term steadfastness of the west. That's not we roll.

    Probably. But both sides are only showing an interest in a deal when they're losing, and although the Russians have had a couple of good days, I expect they'll have bad ones too. The deal will potentially come at a moment when they both feel they're not getting any further.
    Quite. WIth all respect to Major General Dura Ace (who himself as wisely advised people not to treat his word as gospel either) playing the 'I'm a stone cold realist' approach, his position has been no more nuanced or realistic than anyone, he just approaches it from an automatically more pessimistic angle for Ukraine than many others, but it is still just as clearly automatic.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    edited May 2022

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports of fresh food, rather than 70% of all fresh food consumed?
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    UK leapfrogs Spain as top destination for European travellers.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-leapfrogs-spain-as-top-destination-for-european-travelers-1.1768523

    I assume this is temporary, and to do with differential covid rules, but it is pleasing nonetheless.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836
    ydoethur said:

    Carnyx said:

    Sometimes it feels like 24 might be 92 redux, but then I try to imagine Johnson doing an “Honest Boris” soapbox tour.

    But you know who could?
    Keir Starmer.

    Hmm. Soapbox. Labour. Election. *bell rings somewhere in the angular gyrus* *thinks* *light goes on*

    Mr Murphy, branch manager for Slab, and his claim he wouldn't lose a single seat to the SNP, 2015. Delphic or what?

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-jim-murphy-fan-club/
    But he was right, wasn't he? He didn't lose a single seat, he lost 39.
    Indeed. Delphic, as I said, only he saved money by doing the prophecy himself.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
    Have you read the feeble article you posted? That's the debunking equivalent of being thrashed by the proverbial wet lettuce.

    Rock dust is being used in Perthshire to make record breaking vegetables, and is apparently now being exported for profit. Evidently the farmers using it must be suggestible dupes, and the football sized cabbages must be holographical projections. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/scotland-rock-dust-transform-soil


    Jesus christ.

    Have you ever grown anything? "The Thomsons' once-exhausted land now produces football-sized cabbages, massive onions and normally delicate fruits the size of a fist." You do realise that the determinants of the size of a vegetable are 1. Variety 2. General growing conditions and alongway third 3. Fertiliser? How the hell are micronutrients on their own meant to produce whatever these fist sized fruits are?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 2022

    This sounds a bit familiar to our Blue Wall discussions (from the Guardian blog), if you substitute "small Southern town" for "inner city". Morrison seems to have bet the farm on populism, and absent-mindedly lost his core middle-class professional vote.

    There will be time later to examine the trends, but it is clear that the Coalition’s defeat didn’t come in the traditional marginal seats of regional and outer suburban Australia, but rather in their heartland inner city seats, where both major parties went backwards. These are seats where the campaign was dominated by demands for stronger climate action, a change in the treatment of women in politics, and the establishment of an integrity commission with teeth.

    Yes, the swing against the Coalition was strongest in the most affluent areas but less so in outlying suburbs and in largely rural Queensland the Coalition still won most seats.

    It is the sane trend here in the local elections where the biggest swings against the Tories were in the most affluent parts of inner London and the Home Counties like Westminster and Wandsworth and Barnet and Woking and Tunbridge Wells while the Tory vote held up better in blue collar areas and rural villages.

    In the US in 2020 the biggest swing to Biden was in the wealthy suburbs around Philadelphia or in Arizona while Trump still won largely working class Ohio and small towns and rural areas.

    In France as well Macron swept affluent upper middle class Paris while Le Pen did best in the working class industrial North East
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,284
    Leon said:

    Feel slightly sorry for Scott Morrison. Australia has suffered one brief recession in 30 years (during Covid) yet it avoided all of the worst of Covid. Oz has secured a new military alliance shoring up her defences. The country consistently tops tables for quality-of-life, healthcare is good, the universities are often excellent, crime is pretty low, the country is safe, the oysters are fine, China is held at bay….

    And for that he gets kicked out of office?

    I get the sense Aussies have gone for the other guy out of sheer boredom

    "Time for a change" is perhaps the oldest and strongest trend in politics. As HMQ said herself, time stands still for none of us...
  • YokesYokes Posts: 1,332
    edited May 2022
    Ukraine:

    Within the next 7 days either Russia will turn a local breakthough into a major gain of territory or the Ukrainians will hem it in. This battle. pushing westerly from the town of Popasna has seen Ukrainian defence lines collapse in the last 48 hours. And collapse is the right word. The threat is not only will Russia consolidate its dominance of the Luhansk region but could push on further thus gaining more territory for negotiation.

    There were two Ukrainian brigades in reserve north of this area who might offer a support for a plugging operation or a flanking counter but the Ukrainians are having to watch all over the place, including still on their Northern & North Eastern borders, so plenty of reserves that they have are elsewhere in the country

    If they are not pushed back, Russia will have scored a major strategic success, not tactical/not local much against the prevailing media that suggests they have been generally failing. Worse for Ukraine, they have the advantage right now on mobilisation versus Russia so now is the time of opportunity. That advantage window could close soon enough.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,587
    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports of fresh food, rather than 70% of all fresh food consumed?
    One graph for fruit and one for vegetables.





    Can’t find any support for your figures there. Is your definition of fresh food wider than fruit & veg?
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,011
    Mackems promoted.

    Boo.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,242

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Just mentioned this to my beloved and as practical as ever she said

    'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
    Big G, cultivating votre jardin comme d’habitude.
    You mentioned earlier you thought Ardern will fall next year

    As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
    Short answer, yes.

    She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.
    Which is interesting because she was more popular than God when she won re-election in 2020, and widely feted across the West. In fact, I think you were a fan at the time too.

    A lot can change in 18 months.
    True heir to Blair. Even worked as one of his policy wonks.
    No she didn’t.
    She had an admin job.
    She “allowed” her CV to be over-construed.
    Recently National and Labour have tended to alternate with 9 years each in power. Based on this, I think Labour will lose seats next time but hang on (probably in coalition with Green and Maori).

    The more likely governments to be ousted IMHO are in Italy and Spain
  • MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,660

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Just mentioned this to my beloved and as practical as ever she said

    'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
    Big G, cultivating votre jardin comme d’habitude.
    You mentioned earlier you thought Ardern will fall next year

    As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
    Short answer, yes.

    She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.
    Which is interesting because she was more popular than God when she won re-election in 2020, and widely feted across the West. In fact, I think you were a fan at the time too.

    A lot can change in 18 months.
    True heir to Blair. Even worked as one of his policy wonks.
    No she didn’t.
    She had an admin job.
    She “allowed” her CV to be over-construed.
    Wiki claims 'senior policy advisor' in a 'policy unit'. What does this really mean?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 2022

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Just mentioned this to my beloved and as practical as ever she said

    'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
    Big G, cultivating votre jardin comme d’habitude.
    You mentioned earlier you thought Ardern will fall next year

    As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
    Short answer, yes.

    She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.
    Which is interesting because she was more popular than God when she won re-election in 2020, and widely feted across the West. In fact, I think you were a fan at the time too.

    A lot can change in 18 months.
    True heir to Blair. Even worked as one of his policy wonks.
    No she didn’t.
    She had an admin job.
    She “allowed” her CV to be over-construed.
    Recently National and Labour have tended to alternate with 9 years each in power. Based on this, I think Labour will lose seats next time but hang on (probably in coalition with Green and Maori).

    The more likely governments to be ousted IMHO are in Italy and Spain
    Italy could be the first election win for a party or coalition of the right in a major Western democracy since Boris' in 2019 on current polls.

    The Italian general election is due next year

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_Italian_general_election
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,803

    Trump out. ScoMo out.

    Johnson out next, this is a Labour decade.

    Beware hubris.
    He must be an Arsenal fan.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 288
    Odd that the local press were claiming the LD candidate was a woman from Somerset. Richard Foord I used to know - as Mike Smithson says he is a long way from the standard LibDem. He'll stand out a mile in the parliamentary party.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
    Have you read the feeble article you posted? That's the debunking equivalent of being thrashed by the proverbial wet lettuce.

    Rock dust is being used in Perthshire to make record breaking vegetables, and is apparently now being exported for profit. Evidently the farmers using it must be suggestible dupes, and the football sized cabbages must be holographical projections. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/scotland-rock-dust-transform-soil


    Jesus christ.

    Have you ever grown anything? "The Thomsons' once-exhausted land now produces football-sized cabbages, massive onions and normally delicate fruits the size of a fist." You do realise that the determinants of the size of a vegetable are 1. Variety 2. General growing conditions and alongway third 3. Fertiliser? How the hell are micronutrients on their own meant to produce whatever these fist sized fruits are?
    Rock dust “mimics the glacial cycles” and “accelerates the natural weathering process”

    Sounds like fou fou dust to me
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    edited May 2022

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    No, it hasn't been the case, although a lot of people do assume it simply because we have generally chosen not to feed ourselves. There was a time between the repeal of the corn laws and the 1950s when it was true, but after that governments took food security seriously, for a while.

    What would have had to be to be done, and the reason why we never achieved total food security, is for us all to have eaten much less meat, especially beef. Which would of course have delighted @Dura_Ace but appalled @Casino_Royale and the other, rather more numerous, carnivores.

    But after BSE and the rural payments agency fiasco? Not a chance now.
  • JonWCJonWC Posts: 288
    Don't think MS is right about him being a choice to defend the seat though. The seat isn't going to exist. Much of it will form the new Honiton seat and the rest (and the bit I believe Richard Foord lives in) is planned to go in with Exmoor which would be a very tough ask to defend.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Just mentioned this to my beloved and as practical as ever she said

    'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
    Big G, cultivating votre jardin comme d’habitude.
    You mentioned earlier you thought Ardern will fall next year

    As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
    Short answer, yes.

    She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.
    Which is interesting because she was more popular than God when she won re-election in 2020, and widely feted across the West. In fact, I think you were a fan at the time too.

    A lot can change in 18 months.
    True heir to Blair. Even worked as one of his policy wonks.
    No she didn’t.
    She had an admin job.
    She “allowed” her CV to be over-construed.
    Wiki claims 'senior policy advisor' in a 'policy unit'. What does this really mean?
    It means she had a cushy number spouting ignorant bullshit that causes enormous trouble when tried in the real world.

    At least, judging by the policy advisers I have had the misfortune to encounter.

    We could perhaps see some of that with her Covid policies. Magnificent, on paper, effective, for a while, unsustainable in the medium term.

    However, it should be noted that the medium term was long enough in that case.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    carnforth said:

    UK leapfrogs Spain as top destination for European travellers.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-leapfrogs-spain-as-top-destination-for-european-travelers-1.1768523

    I assume this is temporary, and to do with differential covid rules, but it is pleasing nonetheless.

    I always find “traveller numbers” a bit of an odd one unless they can split out the figures more.

    So for example how many of the travellers are flying in for a business meeting in the City for example?

    Are they counting arrivals in UK (for example Heathrow) and discounting those who then depart having used it as a travel hub?

    Are they including students from overseas now Unis are back in business after covid?

    I’ve always wondered about the French figure too as it’s always announced as the most popular destination but I have always figured that those numbers are counting bed nights for millions of Dutch, Germans, Brits etc who cross cross France to drive to Spain and Portugal or Switzerland.

    It’s obviously no bad thing as it beings revenue but it always seems a simplistic snapshot.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Mackems promoted.

    Boo.

    If it hadn’t have been for the mid-season Saudi takeover we would, next season, be seeing Boro, the Mackems and the Geordies all in the same division again.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited May 2022
    boulay said:

    carnforth said:

    UK leapfrogs Spain as top destination for European travellers.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-leapfrogs-spain-as-top-destination-for-european-travelers-1.1768523

    I assume this is temporary, and to do with differential covid rules, but it is pleasing nonetheless.

    I always find “traveller numbers” a bit of an odd one unless they can split out the figures more.

    So for example how many of the travellers are flying in for a business meeting in the City for example?

    Are they counting arrivals in UK (for example Heathrow) and discounting those who then depart having used it as a travel hub?

    Are they including students from overseas now Unis are back in business after covid?

    I’ve always wondered about the French figure too as it’s always announced as the most popular destination but I have always figured that those numbers are counting bed nights for millions of Dutch, Germans, Brits etc who cross cross France to drive to Spain and Portugal or Switzerland.

    It’s obviously no bad thing as it beings revenue but it always seems a simplistic snapshot.
    Using the measure of the size of the queue to take a selfie by the red phone box next to the underpass by Westminster Tube, which I pass every evening, there are now more tourists in London than there has ever been.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,434
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports of fresh food, rather than 70% of all fresh food consumed?
    One graph for fruit and one for vegetables.





    Can’t find any support for your figures there. Is your definition of fresh food wider than fruit & veg?
    Without imports we'd be strictly limited on fresh fruit (as we were during the war) but vegetables would probably be ok, except some of the more exotic ones would slip out the market.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,434
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    No, it hasn't been the case, although a lot of people do assume it simply because we have generally chosen not to feed ourselves. There was a time between the repeal of the corn laws and the 1950s when it was true, but after that governments took food security seriously, for a while.

    What would have had to be to be done, and the reason why we never achieved total food security, is for us all to have eaten much less meat, especially beef. Which would of course have delighted @Dura_Ace but appalled @Casino_Royale and the other, rather more numerous, carnivores.

    But after BSE and the rural payments agency fiasco? Not a chance now.
    I'm not sure that's true.

    There's a lot of upland pasture that is suitable for grazing sheep and cattle but not much use for arable farming.

    It's more likely our diet would be more seasonal and traditionally British, however.

    Like most things with globalisation they make things efficient but not resilient.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,803

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    I don't think it's as high as that, while I wouldn't say the UK us self sufficient, I think we make around 50-60% of food consumed here, iirc the 70% figure relates to imports not the total food consumed and that number has gone down a fair bit too. Overall the most recent figure I've seen is something like 20% of all food consumed in the UK comes from the EU, down from about 30% over the last few years.

    It's still a very substantial number, but I also don't see the relevance of it in any discussion. Agricultural business sells in an international market so unless the EU decides to put up export bans (and while this less unlikely than many consider it's still not a huge risk factor) there's not a huge issue.

    Something that's changed over the last couple of weeks is the wholesale price of gas dropping like a stone as domestic demand drops and the UK accepts a huge, huge amount of LNG in its terminals for export to the EU via our two pipelines to Belgium and the Netherlands. This will take another month or so to feed into factory prices but it's going to be a confounding factor on the economy this summer compared to what we were expecting.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,631
    London Bridge Trooping The Colour stand falls down and injures two people.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-61533968
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    boulay said:

    carnforth said:

    UK leapfrogs Spain as top destination for European travellers.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-leapfrogs-spain-as-top-destination-for-european-travelers-1.1768523

    I assume this is temporary, and to do with differential covid rules, but it is pleasing nonetheless.

    I always find “traveller numbers” a bit of an odd one unless they can split out the figures more.

    So for example how many of the travellers are flying in for a business meeting in the City for example?

    Are they counting arrivals in UK (for example Heathrow) and discounting those who then depart having used it as a travel hub?

    Are they including students from overseas now Unis are back in business after covid?

    I’ve always wondered about the French figure too as it’s always announced as the most popular destination but I have always figured that those numbers are counting bed nights for millions of Dutch, Germans, Brits etc who cross cross France to drive to Spain and Portugal or Switzerland.

    It’s obviously no bad thing as it beings revenue but it always seems a simplistic snapshot.
    Using the measure of the size of the queue to take a selfie by the red phone box next to the underpass by Westminster Tube, which I pass every evening, there are now more tourists in London than there has ever been.
    That’s good to hear - especially factoring in Chinese lockdowns. Now we need a good dose of global warming to make the seaside resorts of the UK the new Med - I’m thinking Hartlepool will definitely be the new Villefranche sur Mer.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,434

    This sounds a bit familiar to our Blue Wall discussions (from the Guardian blog), if you substitute "small Southern town" for "inner city". Morrison seems to have bet the farm on populism, and absent-mindedly lost his core middle-class professional vote.

    There will be time later to examine the trends, but it is clear that the Coalition’s defeat didn’t come in the traditional marginal seats of regional and outer suburban Australia, but rather in their heartland inner city seats, where both major parties went backwards. These are seats where the campaign was dominated by demands for stronger climate action, a change in the treatment of women in politics, and the establishment of an integrity commission with teeth.

    The obvious Conservative pitch is common sense: accept voters desire for more inclusion and kindness to those unfairly excluded in the past whilst shunning extreme Wokery, which parties of the Left will always struggle to do.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet.
    Bye bye ScoMo.

    So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
    Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.

    Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
    Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
    In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.

    In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.

    My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way

    Look forward to more rabbit droppings from me later, but I’m starting pre match drinking now
    With Putin marching around the world and China eyeing up Taiwan (and the Solomon Islands, and much of the Pacific), there is no way Australia is going to endanger its alliance with the USA, by repudiating AUKUS

    The jolly friendship with China is over



    Should be noted though Albanese was in a left faction of the Labor Party linked to the Communist Party of Australia in his youth.

    He may not pull out of AUUKUS but he will certainly be more pro Beijing than Morrison

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Albanese
    Pro Beijing. Huh?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
    Have you read the feeble article you posted? That's the debunking equivalent of being thrashed by the proverbial wet lettuce.

    Rock dust is being used in Perthshire to make record breaking vegetables, and is apparently now being exported for profit. Evidently the farmers using it must be suggestible dupes, and the football sized cabbages must be holographical projections. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/scotland-rock-dust-transform-soil


    Jesus christ.

    Have you ever grown anything? "The Thomsons' once-exhausted land now produces football-sized cabbages, massive onions and normally delicate fruits the size of a fist." You do realise that the determinants of the size of a vegetable are 1. Variety 2. General growing conditions and alongway third 3. Fertiliser? How the hell are micronutrients on their own meant to produce whatever these fist sized fruits are?
    Nitrogen *is* a micronutrient. It just happens that nitrogen in isolation adds bulk to food, but quite obviously, that food will then not have the desired quotient of magnesium, zinc, selenium etc.

    It is an established fact that fertile soils produce crops that are bigger physically and therefore more plentiful (and nourishing food). It's the same in humans and animals, and frankly mind-numbing to have to repeat.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    boulay said:

    boulay said:

    carnforth said:

    UK leapfrogs Spain as top destination for European travellers.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-leapfrogs-spain-as-top-destination-for-european-travelers-1.1768523

    I assume this is temporary, and to do with differential covid rules, but it is pleasing nonetheless.

    I always find “traveller numbers” a bit of an odd one unless they can split out the figures more.

    So for example how many of the travellers are flying in for a business meeting in the City for example?

    Are they counting arrivals in UK (for example Heathrow) and discounting those who then depart having used it as a travel hub?

    Are they including students from overseas now Unis are back in business after covid?

    I’ve always wondered about the French figure too as it’s always announced as the most popular destination but I have always figured that those numbers are counting bed nights for millions of Dutch, Germans, Brits etc who cross cross France to drive to Spain and Portugal or Switzerland.

    It’s obviously no bad thing as it beings revenue but it always seems a simplistic snapshot.
    Using the measure of the size of the queue to take a selfie by the red phone box next to the underpass by Westminster Tube, which I pass every evening, there are now more tourists in London than there has ever been.
    That’s good to hear - especially factoring in Chinese lockdowns. Now we need a good dose of global warming to make the seaside resorts of the UK the new Med - I’m thinking Hartlepool will definitely be the new Villefranche sur Mer.
    Roger, for one, will be delighted.
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Dura_Ace said:



    I’m not convinced that any of the last few PMs would have been able to resist pressure for “a deal”

    Ultimately we need to be careful to leave it to Zelensky to decide - we can be as militant as we like from our armchairs, but they're doing the actual fighting and dying. He's varied from setting his sights on total eviction of the Russians to saying that a diplomatic solution will be needed in the end. The Russians have also varied from implying they want to conquer the whole country to suggesting that it's really just about protecting their Donbas satellites. Unless someone wins outright, there will be a stalemate on the ground at some point, after which both sides may be up for a deal, and we shouldn't second-guess it, though insofar as it also involves lifting sanctions (e.g. to pay for reparations?) we may be asked by Ukraine to play a part. We should neither urge nor block a settlement.
    The Disney Prince could have got a better deal last month when Ukraine had the military momentum and initiative than whatever turd he ends up with now.

    One thing is for sure; he shouldn't count on the long term steadfastness of the west. That's not we roll.
    Yes bear in mind that every extra week the war rolls on means thousands of extra deaths
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet.
    Bye bye ScoMo.

    So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
    Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.

    Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
    Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
    In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.

    In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.

    My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way

    Look forward to more rabbit droppings from me later, but I’m starting pre match drinking now
    With Putin marching around the world and China eyeing up Taiwan (and the Solomon Islands, and much of the Pacific), there is no way Australia is going to endanger its alliance with the USA, by repudiating AUKUS

    The jolly friendship with China is over



    Should be noted though Albanese was in a left faction of the Labor Party linked to the Communist Party of Australia in his youth.

    He may not pull out of AUUKUS but he will certainly be more pro Beijing than Morrison

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Albanese
    Pro Beijing. Huh?
    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/chinas-global-times-backs-anthony-albanese-as-prime-minister-as-questions-mount-over-labors-ties-with-beijing/news-story/2c0f4226a802df781026bcd967ca9f25
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,788
    Posted a concise review on the second entry in Joe Abercrombie's Shattered Sea series: https://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.com/2022/05/review-half-world-shattered-sea-book-2.html
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191

    boulay said:

    carnforth said:

    UK leapfrogs Spain as top destination for European travellers.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-leapfrogs-spain-as-top-destination-for-european-travelers-1.1768523

    I assume this is temporary, and to do with differential covid rules, but it is pleasing nonetheless.

    I always find “traveller numbers” a bit of an odd one unless they can split out the figures more.

    So for example how many of the travellers are flying in for a business meeting in the City for example?

    Are they counting arrivals in UK (for example Heathrow) and discounting those who then depart having used it as a travel hub?

    Are they including students from overseas now Unis are back in business after covid?

    I’ve always wondered about the French figure too as it’s always announced as the most popular destination but I have always figured that those numbers are counting bed nights for millions of Dutch, Germans, Brits etc who cross cross France to drive to Spain and Portugal or Switzerland.

    It’s obviously no bad thing as it beings revenue but it always seems a simplistic snapshot.
    Using the measure of the size of the queue to take a selfie by the red phone box next to the underpass by Westminster Tube, which I pass every evening, there are now more tourists in London than there has ever been.
    Is the red phone box a symbol of Britain today?

    Great design and branding on the outside but an outdated functionality on the inside?

    Asking for a friend.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
    Have you read the feeble article you posted? That's the debunking equivalent of being thrashed by the proverbial wet lettuce.

    Rock dust is being used in Perthshire to make record breaking vegetables, and is apparently now being exported for profit. Evidently the farmers using it must be suggestible dupes, and the football sized cabbages must be holographical projections. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/scotland-rock-dust-transform-soil


    Jesus christ.

    Have you ever grown anything? "The Thomsons' once-exhausted land now produces football-sized cabbages, massive onions and normally delicate fruits the size of a fist." You do realise that the determinants of the size of a vegetable are 1. Variety 2. General growing conditions and alongway third 3. Fertiliser? How the hell are micronutrients on their own meant to produce whatever these fist sized fruits are?
    Nitrogen *is* a micronutrient. It just happens that nitrogen in isolation adds bulk to food, but quite obviously, that food will then not have the desired quotient of magnesium, zinc, selenium etc.

    It is an established fact that fertile soils produce crops that are bigger physically and therefore more plentiful (and nourishing food). It's the same in humans and animals, and frankly mind-numbing to have to repeat.
    Yes. You have understood what "fertile" means. Hoorah.

    Have you ever grown anything?

    Have you got any controlled studies for the benefits of rock dust?
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Yokes said:

    Ukraine:

    Within the next 7 days either Russia will turn a local breakthough into a major gain of territory or the Ukrainians will hem it in. This battle. pushing westerly from the town of Popasna has seen Ukrainian defence lines collapse in the last 48 hours. And collapse is the right word. The threat is not only will Russia consolidate its dominance of the Luhansk region but could push on further thus gaining more territory for negotiation.

    There were two Ukrainian brigades in reserve north of this area who might offer a support for a plugging operation or a flanking counter but the Ukrainians are having to watch all over the place, including still on their Northern & North Eastern borders, so plenty of reserves that they have are elsewhere in the country

    If they are not pushed back, Russia will have scored a major strategic success, not tactical/not local much against the prevailing media that suggests they have been generally failing. Worse for Ukraine, they have the advantage right now on mobilisation versus Russia so now is the time of opportunity. That advantage window could close soon enough.

    Mmm I'm hearing a lot of the Ukrainian army is rather unfit men in their 40s, whilst many of the young men have fled abroad
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    London Bridge Trooping The Colour stand falls down and injures two people.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-61533968

    I would imagine falling onto that parade ground in shorts and t-shirts in this heat would hurt the spectators involved - bearskin and gravel not a great combo.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
    Have you read the feeble article you posted? That's the debunking equivalent of being thrashed by the proverbial wet lettuce.

    Rock dust is being used in Perthshire to make record breaking vegetables, and is apparently now being exported for profit. Evidently the farmers using it must be suggestible dupes, and the football sized cabbages must be holographical projections. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/scotland-rock-dust-transform-soil


    Jesus christ.

    Have you ever grown anything? "The Thomsons' once-exhausted land now produces football-sized cabbages, massive onions and normally delicate fruits the size of a fist." You do realise that the determinants of the size of a vegetable are 1. Variety 2. General growing conditions and alongway third 3. Fertiliser? How the hell are micronutrients on their own meant to produce whatever these fist sized fruits are?
    Rock dust “mimics the glacial cycles” and “accelerates the natural weathering process”

    Sounds like fou fou dust to me
    It can sound like anything it likes to you, the market garden is producing the physical vegetables, and they're not introducing nitrogen fertiliser into the soil secretly at the dead of night, so I suggest you go and sit on a prize-winning marrow.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,803

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
    Have you read the feeble article you posted? That's the debunking equivalent of being thrashed by the proverbial wet lettuce.

    Rock dust is being used in Perthshire to make record breaking vegetables, and is apparently now being exported for profit. Evidently the farmers using it must be suggestible dupes, and the football sized cabbages must be holographical projections. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/scotland-rock-dust-transform-soil


    Jesus christ.

    Have you ever grown anything? "The Thomsons' once-exhausted land now produces football-sized cabbages, massive onions and normally delicate fruits the size of a fist." You do realise that the determinants of the size of a vegetable are 1. Variety 2. General growing conditions and alongway third 3. Fertiliser? How the hell are micronutrients on their own meant to produce whatever these fist sized fruits are?
    Nitrogen *is* a micronutrient. It just happens that nitrogen in isolation adds bulk to food, but quite obviously, that food will then not have the desired quotient of magnesium, zinc, selenium etc.

    It is an established fact that fertile soils produce crops that are bigger physically and therefore more plentiful (and nourishing food). It's the same in humans and animals, and frankly mind-numbing to have to repeat.
    Yes. You have understood what "fertile" means. Hoorah.

    Have you ever grown anything?

    Have you got any controlled studies for the benefits of rock dust?
    Why, have you got anything more than a risible gardening blog headlining with a picture of a poo emoticon?
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    GaryL said:

    Yokes said:

    Ukraine:

    Within the next 7 days either Russia will turn a local breakthough into a major gain of territory or the Ukrainians will hem it in. This battle. pushing westerly from the town of Popasna has seen Ukrainian defence lines collapse in the last 48 hours. And collapse is the right word. The threat is not only will Russia consolidate its dominance of the Luhansk region but could push on further thus gaining more territory for negotiation.

    There were two Ukrainian brigades in reserve north of this area who might offer a support for a plugging operation or a flanking counter but the Ukrainians are having to watch all over the place, including still on their Northern & North Eastern borders, so plenty of reserves that they have are elsewhere in the country

    If they are not pushed back, Russia will have scored a major strategic success, not tactical/not local much against the prevailing media that suggests they have been generally failing. Worse for Ukraine, they have the advantage right now on mobilisation versus Russia so now is the time of opportunity. That advantage window could close soon enough.

    Mmm I'm hearing a lot of the Ukrainian army is rather unfit men in their 40s, whilst many of the young men have fled abroad
    Yes Gary, that’s absolutely what’s happened.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    ydoethur said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Just mentioned this to my beloved and as practical as ever she said

    'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
    Big G, cultivating votre jardin comme d’habitude.
    You mentioned earlier you thought Ardern will fall next year

    As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
    Short answer, yes.

    She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.
    Which is interesting because she was more popular than God when she won re-election in 2020, and widely feted across the West. In fact, I think you were a fan at the time too.

    A lot can change in 18 months.
    True heir to Blair. Even worked as one of his policy wonks.
    No she didn’t.
    She had an admin job.
    She “allowed” her CV to be over-construed.
    Wiki claims 'senior policy advisor' in a 'policy unit'. What does this really mean?
    It means she had a cushy number spouting ignorant bullshit that causes enormous trouble when tried in the real world.

    At least, judging by the policy advisers I have had the misfortune to encounter.

    We could perhaps see some of that with her Covid policies. Magnificent, on paper, effective, for a while, unsustainable in the medium term.

    However, it should be noted that the medium term was long enough in that case.
    She wasn’t a policy advisor.
    You’d need to dig deeper than Wiki.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    JonWC said:

    Odd that the local press were claiming the LD candidate was a woman from Somerset. Richard Foord I used to know - as Mike Smithson says he is a long way from the standard LibDem. He'll stand out a mile in the parliamentary party.

    I've just seem some interviews with him and he appears very smart and fluent. Eds successor?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
    Have you read the feeble article you posted? That's the debunking equivalent of being thrashed by the proverbial wet lettuce.

    Rock dust is being used in Perthshire to make record breaking vegetables, and is apparently now being exported for profit. Evidently the farmers using it must be suggestible dupes, and the football sized cabbages must be holographical projections. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/scotland-rock-dust-transform-soil


    Jesus christ.

    Have you ever grown anything? "The Thomsons' once-exhausted land now produces football-sized cabbages, massive onions and normally delicate fruits the size of a fist." You do realise that the determinants of the size of a vegetable are 1. Variety 2. General growing conditions and alongway third 3. Fertiliser? How the hell are micronutrients on their own meant to produce whatever these fist sized fruits are?
    Rock dust “mimics the glacial cycles” and “accelerates the natural weathering process”

    Sounds like fou fou dust to me
    It can sound like anything it likes to you, the market garden is producing the physical vegetables, and they're not introducing nitrogen fertiliser into the soil secretly at the dead of night, so I suggest you go and sit on a prize-winning marrow.
    Your market garden?

    Controlled study?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited May 2022
    Ha ha, GaryL. Desperate stuff!
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,432
    Pensfold said:

    boulay said:

    carnforth said:

    UK leapfrogs Spain as top destination for European travellers.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-leapfrogs-spain-as-top-destination-for-european-travelers-1.1768523

    I assume this is temporary, and to do with differential covid rules, but it is pleasing nonetheless.

    I always find “traveller numbers” a bit of an odd one unless they can split out the figures more.

    So for example how many of the travellers are flying in for a business meeting in the City for example?

    Are they counting arrivals in UK (for example Heathrow) and discounting those who then depart having used it as a travel hub?

    Are they including students from overseas now Unis are back in business after covid?

    I’ve always wondered about the French figure too as it’s always announced as the most popular destination but I have always figured that those numbers are counting bed nights for millions of Dutch, Germans, Brits etc who cross cross France to drive to Spain and Portugal or Switzerland.

    It’s obviously no bad thing as it beings revenue but it always seems a simplistic snapshot.
    Using the measure of the size of the queue to take a selfie by the red phone box next to the underpass by Westminster Tube, which I pass every evening, there are now more tourists in London than there has ever been.
    Is the red phone box a symbol of Britain today?

    Great design and branding on the outside but an outdated functionality on the inside?

    Asking for a friend.
    We need a use for them. Or perhaps several uses. I've seen them used as second hand book exchanges which is nice.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    JonWC said:

    Odd that the local press were claiming the LD candidate was a woman from Somerset. Richard Foord I used to know - as Mike Smithson says he is a long way from the standard LibDem. He'll stand out a mile in the parliamentary party.

    I've just seem some interviews with him and he appears very smart and fluent. Eds successor?
    He has to win the seat first, not a given if the Tories pick a good local candidate
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Sean_F said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    You’ve asked the wrong and the right question

    A victory for Russia is not possible at this stage. Their leadership has made a gross error that has resulted in a huge strategic defeat for the country.

    A victory is still possible for Putin. In my view complete control of Donetsk and Luhansk would could as victory for the “special military operation” (…our people are safe…)

    I think the defence of Mariupol has made it too iconic for Zelensky to give it up… but Putin can point to the destruction of the Azov Brigade as an important step.

    I would put this scenario at a 30% chance, but this is why the UK is working so hard to push the western alliance onwards. They see that Russia is on the ground and want to damage them as much as possible. Opportunities like this are infrequent & the UK is not Russia’s friend. Germany and France are more interested in being Russia’s friend as they can make more money that way.
    Putin cannot take the whole of Lunansk and Donetsk at this point. They have already gotten bogged down and need to capture Kramatorsk from the north to achieve it. But they have failed to take a large city repeatedly, and this time their supply lines are insecure against the Ukrainian breakout from Kharkiv.
    I wouldn’t say “can not” but I do have it down as a 30% chance - I tend to the conservative in my strategic risk assessments however. Better to prepare for the realistic worst case outcome.
    The only way Russia can semi-win this is if the entire West buckles. Unfortunately for Putin the British refuse to do this, because they are seeking payback for Skripal and Litvinenko. It was truly stupid of Putin to offend an economy twice the size with attacks on British citizens on British soil.
    Russia benefits (or loses) from what Brett Devereaux calls "The Fremen Mirage."

    “Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And weak men create hard times".

    The view is that Russian soldiers (and soldiers under other dictatorships) are hard, tough, invincible, when pitted against the weak, soft, citizens of democracies, who will cave in to their enemies, just to get another 0.25% on GDP.

    I would venture the opinion that actually, liberal democracies are better at waging war than almost any dictatorship.
    But we are not actually waging war and fighting we are merely supplying weapons if we had to conscripts our young men we would see how good at war we really are
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    edited May 2022

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    No, it hasn't been the case, although a lot of people do assume it simply because we have generally chosen not to feed ourselves. There was a time between the repeal of the corn laws and the 1950s when it was true, but after that governments took food security seriously, for a while.

    What would have had to be to be done, and the reason why we never achieved total food security, is for us all to have eaten much less meat, especially beef. Which would of course have delighted @Dura_Ace but appalled @Casino_Royale and the other, rather more numerous, carnivores.

    But after BSE and the rural payments agency fiasco? Not a chance now.
    I'm not sure that's true.

    There's a lot of upland pasture that is suitable for grazing sheep and cattle but not much use for arable farming.

    It's more likely our diet would be more seasonal and traditionally British, however.

    Like most things with globalisation they make things efficient but not resilient.
    Cattle are not usually grazed on upland pasture in this country (although sheep are). Beef and dairy farming in this country is approximately one-twentieth as efficient (in calorific value) as wheat farming on the same land.

    However - because of tastes, and economic climate generally, it is generally far more profitable.

    Which is why BSE, coming on top of TB, followed by FMD, was an absolute hammer blow to farming.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386

    ydoethur said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Just mentioned this to my beloved and as practical as ever she said

    'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
    Big G, cultivating votre jardin comme d’habitude.
    You mentioned earlier you thought Ardern will fall next year

    As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
    Short answer, yes.

    She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.
    Which is interesting because she was more popular than God when she won re-election in 2020, and widely feted across the West. In fact, I think you were a fan at the time too.

    A lot can change in 18 months.
    True heir to Blair. Even worked as one of his policy wonks.
    No she didn’t.
    She had an admin job.
    She “allowed” her CV to be over-construed.
    Wiki claims 'senior policy advisor' in a 'policy unit'. What does this really mean?
    It means she had a cushy number spouting ignorant bullshit that causes enormous trouble when tried in the real world.

    At least, judging by the policy advisers I have had the misfortune to encounter.

    We could perhaps see some of that with her Covid policies. Magnificent, on paper, effective, for a while, unsustainable in the medium term.

    However, it should be noted that the medium term was long enough in that case.
    She wasn’t a policy advisor.
    You’d need to dig deeper than Wiki.
    I haven't even dug that far, I'm just saying what it might mean.

    The day Sam Freedman becomes PM is the day I emigrate.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Pensfold said:

    boulay said:

    carnforth said:

    UK leapfrogs Spain as top destination for European travellers.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-leapfrogs-spain-as-top-destination-for-european-travelers-1.1768523

    I assume this is temporary, and to do with differential covid rules, but it is pleasing nonetheless.

    I always find “traveller numbers” a bit of an odd one unless they can split out the figures more.

    So for example how many of the travellers are flying in for a business meeting in the City for example?

    Are they counting arrivals in UK (for example Heathrow) and discounting those who then depart having used it as a travel hub?

    Are they including students from overseas now Unis are back in business after covid?

    I’ve always wondered about the French figure too as it’s always announced as the most popular destination but I have always figured that those numbers are counting bed nights for millions of Dutch, Germans, Brits etc who cross cross France to drive to Spain and Portugal or Switzerland.

    It’s obviously no bad thing as it beings revenue but it always seems a simplistic snapshot.
    Using the measure of the size of the queue to take a selfie by the red phone box next to the underpass by Westminster Tube, which I pass every evening, there are now more tourists in London than there has ever been.
    Is the red phone box a symbol of Britain today?

    Great design and branding on the outside but an outdated functionality on the inside?

    Asking for a friend.
    We need a use for them. Or perhaps several uses. I've seen them used as second hand book exchanges which is nice.
    I had a friend in my university years who bought a lot of them for very little and converted them into home bars (well cocktail cabinets, showers, all sorts of fun things and he did very well out of it.

    They are good places for defribilators and a quick knee trembler - whichever gets your heart going as needed.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    HYUFD said:

    JonWC said:

    Odd that the local press were claiming the LD candidate was a woman from Somerset. Richard Foord I used to know - as Mike Smithson says he is a long way from the standard LibDem. He'll stand out a mile in the parliamentary party.

    I've just seem some interviews with him and he appears very smart and fluent. Eds successor?
    He has to win the seat first, not a given if the Tories pick a good local candidate
    Agreed.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    boulay said:

    Pensfold said:

    boulay said:

    carnforth said:

    UK leapfrogs Spain as top destination for European travellers.

    https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/uk-leapfrogs-spain-as-top-destination-for-european-travelers-1.1768523

    I assume this is temporary, and to do with differential covid rules, but it is pleasing nonetheless.

    I always find “traveller numbers” a bit of an odd one unless they can split out the figures more.

    So for example how many of the travellers are flying in for a business meeting in the City for example?

    Are they counting arrivals in UK (for example Heathrow) and discounting those who then depart having used it as a travel hub?

    Are they including students from overseas now Unis are back in business after covid?

    I’ve always wondered about the French figure too as it’s always announced as the most popular destination but I have always figured that those numbers are counting bed nights for millions of Dutch, Germans, Brits etc who cross cross France to drive to Spain and Portugal or Switzerland.

    It’s obviously no bad thing as it beings revenue but it always seems a simplistic snapshot.
    Using the measure of the size of the queue to take a selfie by the red phone box next to the underpass by Westminster Tube, which I pass every evening, there are now more tourists in London than there has ever been.
    Is the red phone box a symbol of Britain today?

    Great design and branding on the outside but an outdated functionality on the inside?

    Asking for a friend.
    We need a use for them. Or perhaps several uses. I've seen them used as second hand book exchanges which is nice.
    I had a friend in my university years who bought a lot of them for very little and converted them into home bars (well cocktail cabinets, showers, all sorts of fun things and he did very well out of it.

    They are good places for defribilators and a quick knee trembler - whichever gets your heart going as needed.
    Now that is a genuinely intriguing association of ideas.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage says hi.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,779
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage says hi.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    3-5 years? Try 10!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
    Have you read the feeble article you posted? That's the debunking equivalent of being thrashed by the proverbial wet lettuce.

    Rock dust is being used in Perthshire to make record breaking vegetables, and is apparently now being exported for profit. Evidently the farmers using it must be suggestible dupes, and the football sized cabbages must be holographical projections. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/scotland-rock-dust-transform-soil


    Jesus christ.

    Have you ever grown anything? "The Thomsons' once-exhausted land now produces football-sized cabbages, massive onions and normally delicate fruits the size of a fist." You do realise that the determinants of the size of a vegetable are 1. Variety 2. General growing conditions and alongway third 3. Fertiliser? How the hell are micronutrients on their own meant to produce whatever these fist sized fruits are?
    Rock dust “mimics the glacial cycles” and “accelerates the natural weathering process”

    Sounds like fou fou dust to me
    It can sound like anything it likes to you, the market garden is producing the physical vegetables, and they're not introducing nitrogen fertiliser into the soil secretly at the dead of night, so I suggest you go and sit on a prize-winning marrow.
    I believe in data. Show me that and I might believe you
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage says hi.
    Kim Il-Songonomics.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,803

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    Ricardo's theory of comparative advantage says hi.
    I didn't suggest it was a good idea, just that it would be possible, I have no issue with the current state of affairs.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,434
    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    UK sparkling wine delivers better "champagne" than Champagne now.

    Chapel Down is simply incredible now. I definitely prefer to Moët and it's almost up there with Bollinger. Maybe better.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    I use this debate on agriculture in teaching essay writing, oddly.

    Lots of teenagers just give their opinion on something and justify it with the words 'there are more valid points in support of it.' Which is nonsensical. As I point out, analysis is not a vote.

    So I run them through the arguments for vegetarianism. That the acreage and water used to make one beefsteak could provide a family of four with bread for a week. That methane contributes to global warming. That hygiene standards in the meat industry are not all they might be, and actually, to flavour beef properly, it needs to be aged (I.e. allowed to rot) which is not conducive to healthy storage.

    But against that, steak is delicious.

    So the stronger argument is, we should not all be vegetarian, even though all the evidence points that way.

    It's stolen from a passage in O'Farrell's Things Can Only Get Better, but it's perfect. It's simple, easy to understand and memorable.

    Although I will admit when I'm doing it for a-level their practice essays on capital punishment involve the correct way to treat people who put pineapple on pizza...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,434

    IshmaelZ said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Dependence on nitrogen fertiliser has been a disaster for nutrition. Nitrogen provides bulk. Its not the only mineral a crop needs to be healthy, and to make nourishing food. Rock dust is plentiful, and a far better fertiliser than nitrogen. So I see this as unintentional good news.
    Rock dust is nonsensical woo, debunked all over the Internet, eg

    https://gardenprofessors.com/the-dirt-on-rock-dust/

    Even if it did what it claims, all it claims is to restore micronutrients. There is no way it is going to increase yields the way artificial npk does.
    Have you read the feeble article you posted? That's the debunking equivalent of being thrashed by the proverbial wet lettuce.

    Rock dust is being used in Perthshire to make record breaking vegetables, and is apparently now being exported for profit. Evidently the farmers using it must be suggestible dupes, and the football sized cabbages must be holographical projections. https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/scotland-rock-dust-transform-soil


    Jesus christ.

    Have you ever grown anything? "The Thomsons' once-exhausted land now produces football-sized cabbages, massive onions and normally delicate fruits the size of a fist." You do realise that the determinants of the size of a vegetable are 1. Variety 2. General growing conditions and alongway third 3. Fertiliser? How the hell are micronutrients on their own meant to produce whatever these fist sized fruits are?
    Rock dust “mimics the glacial cycles” and “accelerates the natural weathering process”

    Sounds like fou fou dust to me
    It can sound like anything it likes to you, the market garden is producing the physical vegetables, and they're not introducing nitrogen fertiliser into the soil secretly at the dead of night, so I suggest you go and sit on a prize-winning marrow.
    Maybe if Montgomery had tried that strategy he might have made that final bridge across the Rhine.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,803

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    UK sparkling wine delivers better "champagne" than Champagne now.

    Chapel Down is simply incredible now. I definitely prefer to Moët and it's almost up there with Bollinger. Maybe better.
    Agreed but a cheap bottle of champagne can be had for £14-16, English fizz starts at £25-27 per bottle and we don't have the capacity to replace the imports of European fizz. That's without even getting into global imports of standard red and white wine.

    Again, I think the UK could probably be self sufficient for food and drink, it just seems pointless.

  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,988
    edited May 2022

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    UK sparkling wine delivers better "champagne" than Champagne now.

    Chapel Down is simply incredible now. I definitely prefer to Moët and it's almost up there with Bollinger. Maybe better.
    I wouldn’t go that far - ESW varies, some is excellent and as good or better than many similarly priced champagnes, but some champagne is also excellent. And some of both is mediocre. They are different too, largely because ESW tends to be single vintage and released younger, for cash-flow reasons.

    I planted just over a hectare of vines this year in Kent and will be producing around 6-8,000 bottles a year, mainly of sparkling Blanc de noirs from predominantly Meunier. I’m aiming for something high quality with several years on lees but I don’t have any illusions it will automatically be better than its Champagne cousins. We’ll see what the land produces.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    edited May 2022
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    UK sparkling wine delivers better "champagne" than Champagne now.

    Chapel Down is simply incredible now. I definitely prefer to Moët and it's almost up there with Bollinger. Maybe better.
    I wouldn’t go that far - ESW varies, some is excellent and as good or better than math similarly priced champagnes, but some champagne is also excellent. And some of both is mediocre. They are different too, largely because ESW tends to be single vintage and released younger, for cash-flow reasons.

    I planted just over a hectare of vines this year in Kent and will be producing around 6-8,000 bottles a year, mainly of sparkling Blanc de noirs from predominantly Meunier. I’m aiming for something high quality with several years on lees but I don’t have any illusions it will automatically be better than its Champagne cousins. We’ll see what the land produces.
    Good luck! I like British wine, but then I'm biased. I'm from Newent and actually used to do the entertainment for the Three Choirs Vineyard.

    Edit - btw which county do you live in, if you don't mind my asking?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,803
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    UK sparkling wine delivers better "champagne" than Champagne now.

    Chapel Down is simply incredible now. I definitely prefer to Moët and it's almost up there with Bollinger. Maybe better.
    I wouldn’t go that far - ESW varies, some is excellent and as good or better than math similarly priced champagnes, but some champagne is also excellent. And some of both is mediocre. They are different too, largely because ESW tends to be single vintage and released younger, for cash-flow reasons.

    I planted just over a hectare of vines this year in Kent and will be producing around 6-8,000 bottles a year, mainly of sparkling Blanc de noirs from predominantly Meunier. I’m aiming for something high quality with several years on lees but I don’t have any illusions it will automatically be better than its Champagne cousins. We’ll see what the land produces.
    Good luck! Let us know when you get them available for sale, I'd be very interested in a PB Vintage!
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,257
    Sean_F said:

    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    FPT


    What does a “victory” even look like, for Putin, now?


    Let’s say they conquer (and destroy) east Ukraine. They then have to rebuild it (with the Russian economy in free fall) and presumably occupy it - a land turned entirely hostile to them, rife with insurrection and partisan attacks on the Russian forces, Meanwhile more “fires” will occur across Russia

    At the same time, the EU will be weaning itself off Russian oil and gas, and Russia will edge towards bankruptcy

    I don’t see any route out of this that isn’t total defeat for Russia - and that’s even if they “win”

    You’ve asked the wrong and the right question

    A victory for Russia is not possible at this stage. Their leadership has made a gross error that has resulted in a huge strategic defeat for the country.

    A victory is still possible for Putin. In my view complete control of Donetsk and Luhansk would could as victory for the “special military operation” (…our people are safe…)

    I think the defence of Mariupol has made it too iconic for Zelensky to give it up… but Putin can point to the destruction of the Azov Brigade as an important step.

    I would put this scenario at a 30% chance, but this is why the UK is working so hard to push the western alliance onwards. They see that Russia is on the ground and want to damage them as much as possible. Opportunities like this are infrequent & the UK is not Russia’s friend. Germany and France are more interested in being Russia’s friend as they can make more money that way.
    Putin cannot take the whole of Lunansk and Donetsk at this point. They have already gotten bogged down and need to capture Kramatorsk from the north to achieve it. But they have failed to take a large city repeatedly, and this time their supply lines are insecure against the Ukrainian breakout from Kharkiv.
    I wouldn’t say “can not” but I do have it down as a 30% chance - I tend to the conservative in my strategic risk assessments however. Better to prepare for the realistic worst case outcome.
    The only way Russia can semi-win this is if the entire West buckles. Unfortunately for Putin the British refuse to do this, because they are seeking payback for Skripal and Litvinenko. It was truly stupid of Putin to offend an economy twice the size with attacks on British citizens on British soil.
    Russia benefits (or loses) from what Brett Devereaux calls "The Fremen Mirage."

    “Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And weak men create hard times".

    The view is that Russian soldiers (and soldiers under other dictatorships) are hard, tough, invincible, when pitted against the weak, soft, citizens of democracies, who will cave in to their enemies, just to get another 0.25% on GDP.

    I would venture the opinion that actually, liberal democracies are better at waging war than almost any dictatorship.
    Read the "THE LAND IRONCLADS" - short story by H.G. Wells.

    For those that don't know it, it's the story of the introduction of tanks (gigantic to the point of P-1000 fantasy, but tanks non the less) in a war. Written in 1903. Includes the idea of remote operated weapons stations - weapons aimed and fired remotely, in safety, by the operators.

    Freely available here - https://gutenberg.net.au/ebooks06/0604041h.html

    A subtext in the story is that the observer of events starts out as a correspondent on the side of a country of hardened outdoors types, used to roughing it. They sound a bit like Australia at the time. The other side is described, in derisive terms as a bunch of townies, who can't ride horses.

    The ending....

    "half-dozen comparatively slender young men in blue pajamas who were standing about their victorious land ironclad, drinking coffee and eating biscuits, had also in their eyes and carriage something not altogether degraded below the level of a man."
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    UK sparkling wine delivers better "champagne" than Champagne now.

    Chapel Down is simply incredible now. I definitely prefer to Moët and it's almost up there with Bollinger. Maybe better.
    I wouldn’t go that far - ESW varies, some is excellent and as good or better than many similarly priced champagnes, but some champagne is also excellent. And some of both is mediocre. They are different too, largely because ESW tends to be single vintage and released younger, for cash-flow reasons.

    I planted just over a hectare of vines this year in Kent and will be producing around 6-8,000 bottles a year, mainly of sparkling Blanc de noirs from predominantly Meunier. I’m aiming for something high quality with several years on lees but I don’t have any illusions it will automatically be better than its Champagne cousins. We’ll see what the land produces.
    Hope you are going to call it “fizz with liz”…..
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,988
    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    UK sparkling wine delivers better "champagne" than Champagne now.

    Chapel Down is simply incredible now. I definitely prefer to Moët and it's almost up there with Bollinger. Maybe better.
    I wouldn’t go that far - ESW varies, some is excellent and as good or better than math similarly priced champagnes, but some champagne is also excellent. And some of both is mediocre. They are different too, largely because ESW tends to be single vintage and released younger, for cash-flow reasons.

    I planted just over a hectare of vines this year in Kent and will be producing around 6-8,000 bottles a year, mainly of sparkling Blanc de noirs from predominantly Meunier. I’m aiming for something high quality with several years on lees but I don’t have any illusions it will automatically be better than its Champagne cousins. We’ll see what the land produces.
    Good luck! I like British wine, but then I'm biased. I'm from Newent and actually used to do the entertainment for the Three Choirs Vineyard.
    I’m intrigued what the “entertainment” would have been.

    To continue the word association, I spent my formative years in Hereford and sang every year in the three choirs festival.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    UK sparkling wine delivers better "champagne" than Champagne now.

    Chapel Down is simply incredible now. I definitely prefer to Moët and it's almost up there with Bollinger. Maybe better.
    I wouldn’t go that far - ESW varies, some is excellent and as good or better than many similarly priced champagnes, but some champagne is also excellent. And some of both is mediocre. They are different too, largely because ESW tends to be single vintage and released younger, for cash-flow reasons.

    I planted just over a hectare of vines this year in Kent and will be producing around 6-8,000 bottles a year, mainly of sparkling Blanc de noirs from predominantly Meunier. I’m aiming for something high quality with several years on lees but I don’t have any illusions it will automatically be better than its Champagne cousins. We’ll see what the land produces.
    ROCK DUST!!!!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,523
    Another example of how negotiating positions change when the facts change. Remember how Putin said that Sweden and Finland joining NATO was a terrible idea and would have unspecified "consequences"? Well, on reflection...

    https://uk.news.yahoo.com/putin-says-sweden-finland-joining-205759523.html

    Bluff successfully called, and also a good, sensible outcome. Neither country would be a threat to Russia in any conceivable scenario.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,386
    TimS said:

    ydoethur said:

    TimS said:

    MaxPB said:

    ydoethur said:

    carnforth said:

    I am not saying that anywhere else has it better, but the UK economy seems quite uniquely fucked.

    Not least because the government has no interest in actual economic policy.

    Actually, I think we're uniquely positioned to thrive in the current world circumstances. We have (with some caveats), plenty of food, plenty of varied fuel, we have the geographical advantages of being a set of islands, etc. The opportunities just need to be grasped. I'm open to being persuaded otherwise, but this Government is over. Boris can claw back a little respect from me if he deals with the hard situation in NI for his successor. But perhaps even that might take someone new.
    The UK is reliant on the EU for 70% of its fresh food.
    Are you sure it’s not 70% of imports, rather than 70% of all food consumed?
    It should be pointed out as well that the EU was at best a decidedly mixed blessing for British agriculture. Without their policy muddles and corruption, we could have been in a position to feed ourselves. The illegal ban on our beef at the behest of the French (who had twice as much BSE as we did, although they called it something else) was bad, but the subsidy mechanism was far more damaging over the long term.

    We went from having in the early 1990s one of the most efficient and advanced agricultural sectors in the world, capable of feeding 60 million people, to, well...
    Putting aside the deficiencies of CAP, the idea that the UK can feed itself is risible.

    Or, if it could, it would only do so with incredibly high food costs.

    This has surely been the case since, I don’t know, the repeal of the Corn Laws.
    I think it could but not overnight, it would required 3-5 years of planning and we'd obviously lose stuff like olive oil and speciality imported items as well as fruits out of season. Compared to just 30 years ago, though, the range of food that can now be successfully grown in the UK is huge so the loss would be much less noticeable than most think. I think in a few select areas we could probably cultivate olive trees to make olive oil but it would be very expensive compared to today. The biggest loss would be wine, UK wine is expensive and we absolutely don't produce anywhere near enough compared to consumption. There just isn't enough viable land to support the various grape varieties.
    UK sparkling wine delivers better "champagne" than Champagne now.

    Chapel Down is simply incredible now. I definitely prefer to Moët and it's almost up there with Bollinger. Maybe better.
    I wouldn’t go that far - ESW varies, some is excellent and as good or better than math similarly priced champagnes, but some champagne is also excellent. And some of both is mediocre. They are different too, largely because ESW tends to be single vintage and released younger, for cash-flow reasons.

    I planted just over a hectare of vines this year in Kent and will be producing around 6-8,000 bottles a year, mainly of sparkling Blanc de noirs from predominantly Meunier. I’m aiming for something high quality with several years on lees but I don’t have any illusions it will automatically be better than its Champagne cousins. We’ll see what the land produces.
    Good luck! I like British wine, but then I'm biased. I'm from Newent and actually used to do the entertainment for the Three Choirs Vineyard.
    I’m intrigued what the “entertainment” would have been.

    To continue the word association, I spent my formative years in Hereford and sang every year in the three choirs festival.
    Their restaurant. I used to turn up and do live performances, particularly at Christmas.

    Although some of my attempts at playing golf on the nearby course may have entertained the vines in other ways, of course :smile:
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    ydoethur said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Thread on food prices - tomatoes as an example. Very worrying...


    Ed Conway
    @EdConwaySky
    ·
    6h
    The upshot is that half of the greenhouses in the Lea Valley have been left empty this year.
    It's hard to describe what a big deal this is. Up until this year they hadn't seen a SINGLE one left without plants.
    This one should have cucumbers growing in it. Instead: nothing.

    https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1527926798104809473

    I've shared this before on here but a good read from 2 months ago about what fertilizer and other shortages mean for food supplies. TL;DR, eye-watering costs for the west and likely famine in many poorer countries.

    https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink

    Soaring food prices already causing riots in Iran

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/14/food-protests-continue-across-iran-as-one-person-reported-dead

    Dark times ahead.

    Just mentioned this to my beloved and as practical as ever she said

    'I will just have to plant some more' !!!
    Big G, cultivating votre jardin comme d’habitude.
    You mentioned earlier you thought Ardern will fall next year

    As a Kiwi you obviously must have a feel for this and are Kiwi's falling out of love with her?
    Short answer, yes.

    She’s a very poor administrator and essentially a performative idiot.
    Which is interesting because she was more popular than God when she won re-election in 2020, and widely feted across the West. In fact, I think you were a fan at the time too.

    A lot can change in 18 months.
    True heir to Blair. Even worked as one of his policy wonks.
    No she didn’t.
    She had an admin job.
    She “allowed” her CV to be over-construed.
    Wiki claims 'senior policy advisor' in a 'policy unit'. What does this really mean?
    It means she had a cushy number spouting ignorant bullshit that causes enormous trouble when tried in the real world.

    At least, judging by the policy advisers I have had the misfortune to encounter.

    We could perhaps see some of that with her Covid policies. Magnificent, on paper, effective, for a while, unsustainable in the medium term.

    However, it should be noted that the medium term was long enough in that case.
    Some policy advisors are really top class, you know.

    (Northern_Al, retired Policy Advisor).
  • GaryLGaryL Posts: 131
    Apparently Jeremy hunt would not have locked us down in 2020 if he was pm,,, interesting
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,368
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    Dura_Ace said:

    dixiedean said:

    Sky Australia calls Labor majority. ABC not yet.
    Bye bye ScoMo.

    So he didn't get a Djokovic boost as foretold on here.
    Nor a pro-coal boost in mining area’s this time, which could have a lasting significance.

    Also Aukus may have cost ScotMo crucial votes in this election?
    Why? It isn't really anything beyond a vague commitment to buy an unspecified number of as yet unknown SSNs about 10 years hence. Who the fuck is going to change their vote over that?
    In part it is why I added question mark on end, as in tight elections every movement matters.

    In the overall picture Aukus is not just kit as you say, it’s beefing up confronting China, the suggestion of a Cold War with China. On previous thread there’s a post showing swing to Opposition from Chinese Australians.

    My reasoning may be wrong, but that’s my hypothesis thrown out there, in my usual Rabbit Droppings way

    Look forward to more rabbit droppings from me later, but I’m starting pre match drinking now
    With Putin marching around the world and China eyeing up Taiwan (and the Solomon Islands, and much of the Pacific), there is no way Australia is going to endanger its alliance with the USA, by repudiating AUKUS

    The jolly friendship with China is over



    Should be noted though Albanese was in a left faction of the Labor Party linked to the Communist Party of Australia in his youth.

    He may not pull out of AUUKUS but he will certainly be more pro Beijing than Morrison

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthony_Albanese
    Pro Beijing. Huh?
    https://www.skynews.com.au/australia-news/politics/chinas-global-times-backs-anthony-albanese-as-prime-minister-as-questions-mount-over-labors-ties-with-beijing/news-story/2c0f4226a802df781026bcd967ca9f25
    Isn't Sky News Au. still owned by Newscorp. And isn't ScoMo very friendly with Jerry Hall's husband?

    It's a bit of a "Vote Labour, get SNP" smear from my viewpoint.
This discussion has been closed.