I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Hmm, like the British didn't win the Battle of Britain and it was all the Americans who did?
I think I've seen this movie.
Any Holywood WWII movie made in the past 77 years.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Hmm, like the British didn't win the Battle of Britain and it was all the Americans who did?
It was the Americans who provided the supplies and aid to help win WW2.
Though I doubt Putin will allow a Ukranian outright victory, otherwise he knows his Presidency is over if they force the Russians out of the country completely
YOu were saying that Mr JOhnson would have "won it", referring to the Ukraine-Russian war.
Like the Americans in 1939-1940. So Mr JOhnson will be resorting to Hollywood levels of historical scholarship?
Yes, it was British supplies of up to date military equipment which proved crucial on the battleground in containing the Russian advance just as British supplies of food and aid also helped sustain the Ukranians.
Meanwhile Sturgeon cannot even run a decent rail service, as the nationalised ScotRail slashes services
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
A major problem with consultations (ignoring the frequent number which are not genuine in being open to alternative views) is that they are not referendums of course, and you will often get one minority side much more motivated to respond, but neither can you just presume anyone who does not respond is in favour. Sheer numbers for and against is relevant, but may not be entirely persuasive, as reasoning is also relevant (but often not sought) and smaller numbers with a better argument may make sense to listen to more than a majority. But of course governments find that hard to say, and so the whole process is a bit of a mess.
On the other hand 96% is a heck of an imbalance. It rather suggests that of those that give a stuff one way or the other, it is the one ways, not the others, who are in an overwhelming majority.
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
I really have no idea
You say they are dealing with it idiotically, what then do you want them To do, if it’s not have a budget to provide means of helping, cutting taxes, raising social hand out allowances, cutting tariffs on food imports, giving pensioners four figure fuel payment’s, extending energy cap to those who use oil etc?
Logically yes but their is an absence of logic throughout HMG
To be fair, you said a few days ago, the last budget sat on money to wait and see how it develops, so was sensible in that (there was pressure from his own side to touch the money, and we expect a Lab government would have splashed the cash two months ago, if anything feeding inflation).
With twin issues of inflation and stagnant growth, the measures to tackle inflation can hurt growth, so being cautious and careful how to react to inflation spike is very sensible.
But it come to a point now there’s so many good ideas out there (I keep posting them) how to help the most hurting groups, it seems great political idea to call a budget and implement them. I would.
I think it is more likely to be piecemeal throughout the summer rather than a formal budget
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
I really have no idea
You say they are dealing with it idiotically, what then do you want them To do, if it’s not have a budget to provide means of helping, cutting taxes, raising social hand out allowances, cutting tariffs on food imports, giving pensioners four figure fuel payment’s, extending energy cap to those who use oil etc?
Logically yes but their is an absence of logic throughout HMG
To be fair, you said a few days ago, the last budget sat on money to wait and see how it develops, so was sensible in that (there was pressure from his own side to touch the money, and we expect a Lab government would have splashed the cash two months ago, if anything feeding inflation).
With twin issues of inflation and stagnant growth, the measures to tackle inflation can hurt growth, so being cautious and careful how to react to inflation spike is very sensible.
But it come to a point now there’s so many good ideas out there (I keep posting them) how to help the most hurting groups, it seems great political idea to call a budget and implement them. I would.
I think it is more likely to be piecemeal throughout the summer rather than a formal budget
They'd need to sell it as 'flexible ongoing support measures' They are dreadful at selling things
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Hmm, like the British didn't win the Battle of Britain and it was all the Americans who did?
It was the Americans who provided the supplies and aid to help win WW2.
Though I doubt Putin will allow a Ukranian outright victory, otherwise he knows his Presidency is over if they force the Russians out of the country completely
YOu were saying that Mr JOhnson would have "won it", referring to the Ukraine-Russian war.
Like the Americans in 1939-1940. So Mr JOhnson will be resorting to Hollywood levels of historical scholarship?
Yes, it was British supplies of up to date military equipment which proved crucial on the battleground in containing the Russian advance just as British supplies of food and aid also helped sustain the Ukranians.
Meanwhile Sturgeon cannot even run a decent rail service, as the nationalised ScotRail slashes services
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
Absolutely no sign of that happening, mind. Difficult to see what that might be either.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Hmm, like the British didn't win the Battle of Britain and it was all the Americans who did?
It was the Americans who provided the supplies and aid to help win WW2.
Though I doubt Putin will allow a Ukranian outright victory, otherwise he knows his Presidency is over if they force the Russians out of the country completely
YOu were saying that Mr JOhnson would have "won it", referring to the Ukraine-Russian war.
Like the Americans in 1939-1940. So Mr JOhnson will be resorting to Hollywood levels of historical scholarship?
Yes, it was British supplies of up to date military equipment which proved crucial on the battleground in containing the Russian advance just as British supplies of food and aid also helped sustain the Ukranians.
Meanwhile Sturgeon cannot even run a decent rail service, as the nationalised ScotRail slashes services
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
Absolutely no sign of that happening, mind. Difficult to see what that might be either.
It is, but events etc They'll struggle to force it to happen certainly
Edit- as a random example, and I'm not predicting this! The Ukraine war intensifies and as we get dragged in Starmer expels the NATO naysayers who coalesce in a new party around Corbyn. It gets a few % national support, all from labour. Ukraine is resolved, election called. Unlikely but events events events
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
A major problem with consultations (ignoring the frequent number which are not genuine in being open to alternative views) is that they are not referendums of course, and you will often get one minority side much more motivated to respond, but neither can you just presume anyone who does not respond is in favour. Sheer numbers for and against is relevant, but may not be entirely persuasive, as reasoning is also relevant (but often not sought) and smaller numbers with a better argument may make sense to listen to more than a majority. But of course governments find that hard to say, and so the whole process is a bit of a mess.
In addition to your very valid points, there is also the position that some issues, such as the ownership of Channel 4, are completely irrelevant to the vast majority of people.
There is also the point that I doubt if (virtually) anyone who responded against the proposal would ever vote for this conservative party.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
It's not Putin's job to be concerned about the British economy or public. It should be the concern of Boris and his Government. We are being manoeuvred into a scenario where absolute victory as defined by those setting this agenda must be won 'whatever the cost'. I'm sorry but that is patently absurd. We choose whether policing a given corner of the world is more important than British people struggling to eat well or heat their houses. We're constantly told that Putin is struggling to gain small stretches of Ukraine - so why is unseating him so essential to British security interests as to spend billions and cut off chunks of our economy in this way?
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
Absolutely no sign of that happening, mind. Difficult to see what that might be either.
It is, but events etc They'll struggle to force it to happen certainly
Edit- as a random example, and I'm not predicting this! The Ukraine war intensifies and as we get dragged in Starmer expels the NATO naysayers who coalesce in a new party around Corbyn. It gets a few % national support, all from labour. Ukraine is resolved, election called. Unlikely but events events events
If we get dragged into the Ukraine all bets would be off. But we'd have far more to worry about than the next election.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
It's not Putin's job to be concerned about the British economy or public. It should be the concern of Boris and his Government. We are being manoeuvred into a scenario where absolute victory as defined by those setting this agenda must be won 'whatever the cost'. I'm sorry but that is patently absurd. We choose whether policing a given corner of the world is more important than British people struggling to eat well or heat their houses. We're constantly told that Putin is struggling to gain small stretches of Ukraine - so why is unseating him so essential to British security interests as to spend billions and cut off chunks of our economy in this way?
John Alder, John Allen, Stephen Anderson, Robert Ayley, Cameron Dalziel, Glenn Thomas, Liam Sweeney, Ben Pocock, Richard Mayne and Andrew Hoare.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
Absolutely no sign of that happening, mind. Difficult to see what that might be either.
It is, but events etc They'll struggle to force it to happen certainly
Edit- as a random example, and I'm not predicting this! The Ukraine war intensifies and as we get dragged in Starmer expels the NATO naysayers who coalesce in a new party around Corbyn. It gets a few % national support, all from labour. Ukraine is resolved, election called. Unlikely but events events events
If we get dragged into the Ukraine all bets would be off. But we'd have far more to worry about than the next election.
Sure, I agree, but I was just using it as an example of an external factor causing that shift.
It's also possible an obvious global financial meltdown could provoke a cling to nurse response (mori today for example had a Tory few points lead on grow the economy)
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
From what I can tell it seems like Vardy doesn't seem very convincing, with all the 'lost' evidence, but presumably it's hard for Rooney to prove her accusations were actually true (and Vardy can just blame the agent) and in the public interest.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I've been saying for ages Boris will win the next election with a reduced majority... I do think it'll be the last time for Con for this run though. Lab win a majority government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's probably a Labour decade.
Majority governments all the way until 2040 at least. The public had quite enough of the "balanced parliament" experience from 2017-2019 lol!
BRUSSELS and LONDON — The European Union has confessed it is holding back funding for British scientists as punishment for U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's threat to rip up parts of the Brexit deal.
For as long as the spat over post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland drags on, Brussels won’t let the U.K. be part of its flagship Horizon research and innovation program, according to an official letter sent to a British politician.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Indeed so. The one thing within his control is to keep up arming the Ukranians, and make sure the $33bn of promised US kit makes it to the front lines.
The latter point has little or nothing to do with Johnson.
Rand Paul has more influence - though it looks as though he's been squashed for the time being. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/19/senate-40-billion-ukraine-aid-bill-00033719 ...The fact that the bill languished in Congress amid the fall of the crucial Ukrainian port city has irked lawmakers in both parties. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called it “repugnant” that Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has objected to swift passage of the measure for more than a week.
To delay the bill “for purely political motives,” Schumer said, “is to only strengthen Putin’s hand.”
Paul argues that the package raises questions of “unconstitutionality” as well as “affordability.” For days the Kentucky Republican demanded that the Senate amend the bill to designate a special federal watchdog to oversee how the $40 billion is spent.
“Isn’t there a more fiscally responsible way this could be done? What about taking the $40 billion from elsewhere in the budget?” Paul said this week.
Adopting Paul’s amendment would have sent the bill back to the House for another vote. And while Senate leaders brushed aside his proposal for a special watchdog, the bill as written would already force the Pentagon’s inspector general to review how the Defense Department spends the emergency funding and deliver a report to Congress. It also requires the Defense and State departments to keep tabs on the end use of weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine.
Aside from the power to transfer billions of dollars worth of weapons from U.S. troves, the package would provide another $6 billion to the Pentagon account for arming Ukraine’s military, as well as nearly $4 billion for military operations in Europe. The State Department would receive $4 billion for foreign military financing to help arm Ukraine and other NATO countries...
One thing that Congressional Democrats and Republicans are united on - spending money on the arming Ukraine. The Republicans are still heavily backed by LockMart and Boeing. - lots of nice money to make up for problems they are having in civil aerospace....
Except, of course, that Rand Paul thinks that Ukraine is part of Russia, and he is a constant thorn in the side of getting aid to Ukraine.
One can generally tell those who are persistent and persnickity rules followers, who may be annoying but have a point, and those who merely use the letter of the rules and procedural arcana as a cover to frustrate others and advance their own importance and agendas, where they show less adherence to such matters.
Chope is one of ours who is one of the latter.
Chope restricts his rule following to opposition MPs, irrespective of the serious nature of the subject (FGM and upskirting to name two). He is quite content for his chums to short circuit the system and put any old trivia he agrees with into statute.
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
Vardy will prob win on VAR technicality call but has absolutely obliterated her career options by the Suarez level antics…..
I read something by a legal expert saying that Rooney cannot “prove” Vardy did it in a legal sense with actual evidence however common sense might view the fiasco differently.
I can imagine the judge destroying her but having to award the win - maybe a £1 award….. a nice lesson to fame obsessed and money crazed celebs all over, I hope.
The big winner however is Davey Jones whose career has been dragged up from the depths for a new generation.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
In terms of anti tank missiles for instance, pivotal for the Ukranians containing the Russian advance, it was the UK which supplied the most
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
As so
True, but let’s not ignore the training the U.K. has provided the Ukrainian military over the past 8 years…..8 years longer than almost anyone else…..
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I've been saying for ages Boris will win the next election with a reduced majority... I do think it'll be the last time for Con for this run though. Lab win a majority government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's probably a Labour decade.
Majority governments all the way until 2040 at least. The public had quite enough of the "balanced parliament" experience from 2017-2019 lol!
Very possible for next time anc 2028 although I am extremely doubtful about a labour decade. They've only ever once had dominance like that and I can't see them having it again.
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
Vardy will prob win on VAR technicality call but has absolutely obliterated her career options by the Suarez level antics…..
I read something by a legal expert saying that Rooney cannot “prove” Vardy did it in a legal sense with actual evidence however common sense might view the fiasco differently.
I can imagine the judge destroying her but having to award the win - maybe a £1 award….. a nice lesson to fame obsessed and money crazed celebs all over, I hope.
The big winner however is Davey Jones whose career has been dragged up from the depths for a new generation.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I've been saying for ages Boris will win the next election with a reduced majority... I do think it'll be the last time for Con for this run though. Lab win a majority government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's probably a Labour decade.
Majority governments all the way until 2040 at least. The public had quite enough of the "balanced parliament" experience from 2017-2019 lol!
I think there is a +40% chance of a Tory majority (half the seats) and about a 5% chance of a Tory government (however short and flimsy) without a majority. So in all whether Tory or Labour lead the next government in some form is at about evens. Less sure that Boris would be Tory leader by the next GE though.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I've been saying for ages Boris will win the next election with a reduced majority... I do think it'll be the last time for Con for this run though. Lab win a majority government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's probably a Labour decade.
Majority governments all the way until 2040 at least. The public had quite enough of the "balanced parliament" experience from 2017-2019 lol!
At the moment it looks like Starmer PM in a hung parliament with LD support, 2010 in reverse except with Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown.
Starmer is not disliked enough unlike Kinnock or Corbyn for swing voters to vote Tory still to keep him out
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
Vardy will prob win on VAR technicality call but has absolutely obliterated her career options by the Suarez level antics…..
I read something by a legal expert saying that Rooney cannot “prove” Vardy did it in a legal sense with actual evidence however common sense might view the fiasco differently.
I can imagine the judge destroying her but having to award the win - maybe a £1 award….. a nice lesson to fame obsessed and money crazed celebs all over, I hope.
The big winner however is Davey Jones whose career has been dragged up from the depths for a new generation.
He needs to get back in his locker imo.
Would have been funnier if it had been “R v Rooney” to hear Vardy kick of at the judge “you calling me a regina?”.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I've been saying for ages Boris will win the next election with a reduced majority... I do think it'll be the last time for Con for this run though. Lab win a majority government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's probably a Labour decade.
Majority governments all the way until 2040 at least. The public had quite enough of the "balanced parliament" experience from 2017-2019 lol!
Silly post @GIN1138. The public can never decide to avoid hung parliaments. Everyone votes individually, largely unaware of how others are voting.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
It's not Putin's job to be concerned about the British economy or public. It should be the concern of Boris and his Government. We are being manoeuvred into a scenario where absolute victory as defined by those setting this agenda must be won 'whatever the cost'. I'm sorry but that is patently absurd. We choose whether policing a given corner of the world is more important than British people struggling to eat well or heat their houses. We're constantly told that Putin is struggling to gain small stretches of Ukraine - so why is unseating him so essential to British security interests as to spend billions and cut off chunks of our economy in this way?
It's a case of spending the money now, rather than more later.
Putin has made his ambitions clear: and it is not just Ukraine. The question is whether those ambitions are good for Britain and the wider world. And the answer is no. The more Putin wins, the poorer and more dangerous the world becomes.
Therefore we have a choice: to spend the money now, or spend more in a few years.
It's a shame we didn't act a few years back, when even less money would have had a similar effect. But we gave Putin the impression that we would do next-to-nothing whatever he did.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
In terms of anti tank missiles for instance, pivotal for the Ukranians containing the Russian advance, it was the UK which supplied the most
Aside from cherry picking an admittedly important type of military equipment, this is simply untrue. The US has been pumping Javelins into Ukraine at a vast rate - about one-third of its own (massive) stock.
Again, no wish to denegrate the UK contribution, but you're just living in an absolute John Bull fantasy world in terms of numbers.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
It's not Putin's job to be concerned about the British economy or public. It should be the concern of Boris and his Government. We are being manoeuvred into a scenario where absolute victory as defined by those setting this agenda must be won 'whatever the cost'. I'm sorry but that is patently absurd. We choose whether policing a given corner of the world is more important than British people struggling to eat well or heat their houses. We're constantly told that Putin is struggling to gain small stretches of Ukraine - so why is unseating him so essential to British security interests as to spend billions and cut off chunks of our economy in this way?
It's a case of spending the money now, rather than more later.
Putin has made his ambitions clear: and it is not just Ukraine. The question is whether those ambitions are good for Britain and the wider world. And the answer is no. The more Putin wins, the poorer and more dangerous the world becomes.
Therefore we have a choice: to spend the money now, or spend more in a few years.
It's a shame we didn't act a few years back, when even less money would have had a similar effect. But we gave Putin the impression that we would do next-to-nothing whatever he did.
I don't think it unreasonable for someone to raise the question of whether supporting Ukraine, and a wider geopolitical objective, is worth the financial cost. But as you point out I think it is pretty reasonable for people to agree quite easily that it is worth it. The implication in the question though is that any cost at all is unacceptable (hence the contrast with people struggling to eat well, which sets the bar at no cost in pursuit of the objective being ok, because there will always be some people struggling).
Our commitments of aid and weaponry have not been overburdening. Indeed, providing weapons we've already paid for so they are actually used strikes me as actually getting value for money from them for once.
So the only real question is about whether there are more general economic hits to us. The answer there may well be yes, but the invasion and disruption it has caused seems to have caused big economic hits echoing out anyway, so sitting it out wouldn't seem to provide that much benefit to us at all.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
In terms of anti tank missiles for instance, pivotal for the Ukranians containing the Russian advance, it was the UK which supplied the most
Aside from cherry picking an admittedly important type of military equipment, this is simply untrue. The US has been pumping Javelins into Ukraine at a vast rate - about one-third of its own (massive) stock.
Again, no wish to denegrate the UK contribution, but you're just living in an absolute John Bull fantasy world in terms of numbers.
It’s been a salutary reminder to the world of the absolute size and power of the US. For years people have been talking about it (wrongly IMHO) being in decline but it’s not - only China could pull that kind of spending out of its backside and provide the sheer volume of weaponry. America is not finished it’s been resting.
I do think in the UK’s defence it’s allowed others such as the US to do everything they can as if the UK can do what it has done with a relatively (to the US) small military it would have been shaming to others if they hadn’t done anything. Same applies of course to a number of Baltic/east European countries.
The UK and friends probably greased the wheels - the US provided the locomotive.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
As so
True, but let’s not ignore the training the U.K. has provided the Ukrainian military over the past 8 years…..8 years longer than almost anyone else…..
I've no wish to ignore anything, nor is SirNorfolkPassmore I'm sure. I'm very proud of our input. But our position is still praiseworthy with everything in proper context.
and if Starmer gets fined then I think a few people might need to get their sides re-stitched.
Not really, if he resigns and is replaced by someone equivalent or better that will look pretty terrible for your hero.
Indeed. Johnson staying and Starmer going is a win/win for Labour.
Not in the short term as labour pull themselves apart in a leadership battle whilst the country suffers with COL. 'No time for your permanent internecine wars' The new leader may then not have enough time before the next GE to convince.
I agree. And well put.
Agreement in the face of other disagreement is part of peebees fun
I just call it all as I see it. Bluff like. It’s the Yorkshire in me 😇
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
In terms of anti tank missiles for instance, pivotal for the Ukranians containing the Russian advance, it was the UK which supplied the most
Aside from cherry picking an admittedly important type of military equipment, this is simply untrue. The US has been pumping Javelins into Ukraine at a vast rate - about one-third of its own (massive) stock.
Again, no wish to denegrate the UK contribution, but you're just living in an absolute John Bull fantasy world in terms of numbers.
The US provided 5,000 anti tank missiles, the UK over 10,000
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
In terms of anti tank missiles for instance, pivotal for the Ukranians containing the Russian advance, it was the UK which supplied the most
Aside from cherry picking an admittedly important type of military equipment, this is simply untrue. The US has been pumping Javelins into Ukraine at a vast rate - about one-third of its own (massive) stock.
Again, no wish to denegrate the UK contribution, but you're just living in an absolute John Bull fantasy world in terms of numbers.
I guess HYUFD was talking about the early days of the war, immediately after Russia invaded. I don't think the US sent any Javelins until early March?
Boris Johnson and the UK appear to be held in high regard in both Ukraine and the wider region (outside Russia, obvs.). Hence the Eurovision result and all the streets being renamed after Boris. Those early days were critical, and our contribution was massive at that time, although overshadowed now.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
In terms of anti tank missiles for instance, pivotal for the Ukranians containing the Russian advance, it was the UK which supplied the most
Aside from cherry picking an admittedly important type of military equipment, this is simply untrue. The US has been pumping Javelins into Ukraine at a vast rate - about one-third of its own (massive) stock.
Again, no wish to denegrate the UK contribution, but you're just living in an absolute John Bull fantasy world in terms of numbers.
The US provided 5,000 anti tank missiles, the UK over 10,000
Savanta one of the oddest in the pack how their Green scores so low and their Labour so high and gap between main parties so wide.
Or for odd you could use most accurate?
It's within a couple % of everything released recently. It's not remotely odd.
At first glance you a right, further investigation you are wrong, because they are consistently doing this - low green high labour, in stark relation to everybody else. Look for Trend from each pollster first, and then in the trend from other pollsters for change of trend.
For example, where is Mays Kantor? If it shows a comparatively small Lab lead of just 4, it’s a shocker for the Tories. Whilst on your broad brush logic it’s within % Of everybody else.
Hope this helps 🙂
That's simply not the case. They are lower end for green, not lowest (survation have tended to be lower for example), they are not the highest Labour share generally, they are perhaps or even probably above the average but again, nothing unusual. And their gap is not out of line with the others. There is no stark difference being consistently shown. The pollsters are actually unusually tight at the moment, with very occasional blips like that 1% yougov.
I also hope this helps.
Ha ha ha. You are clearly saying a green share of 3 from one pollster and a green share of 8 from another are both correct simultaneously.
So are you agreeing a May Kantor of 4% Lab lead or more is a shocker for the Tories?
Nobody is 'correct' there is nothing to judge it on, there is no GE to refer against. Polls are a snapshot. And for the record no 'current' poll has the greens on 8 (this one has them on 4 not 3) No, I'm not. I don't judge things on movement from one poll of 1000 or so people to the next, that's what people should don't understand psychology do on twitter and get terribly excited by it. Polls offer hints only on direction of travel etc. Your initial assertion that ComRes are starkly different to everyone else on Green score, Lab score and gap is simply incorrect. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Psephology. Not autocorrected psychology, duh
I think it came from Greek word meaning counting pebbles.
Many times on PB I have tried spelling it, halfway through it looks like an ophthalmologist, so I delete it and call them pebble counters.
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
It seems to have fired up Jamie pretty effectively.
I don't know who will prevail, as that will come down to the detail of the evidence, and in particular if Rebekah Vardy is held responsible for others access to her account.
It isn't a trivial case though, and not just because of the sums of money spent. It is a very interesting examination of how modern social media and celebrity culture intertwines with conventional Tabloid journalism. It is a story for our times.
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
The fact that Boris Johnson has put her in charge of anything tells you he is not fit for office
Nigel Foreman would have praised Nadine when she was a nurse. So it's not about the person but the role.
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
It seems to have fired up Jamie pretty effectively.
I don't know who will prevail, as that will come down to the detail of the evidence, and in particular if Rebekah Vardy is held responsible for others access to her account.
It isn't a trivial case though, and not just because of the sums of money spent. It is a very interesting examination of how modern social media and celebrity culture intertwines with conventional Tabloid journalism. It is a story for our times.
Savanta one of the oddest in the pack how their Green scores so low and their Labour so high and gap between main parties so wide.
Or for odd you could use most accurate?
It's within a couple % of everything released recently. It's not remotely odd.
At first glance you a right, further investigation you are wrong, because they are consistently doing this - low green high labour, in stark relation to everybody else. Look for Trend from each pollster first, and then in the trend from other pollsters for change of trend.
For example, where is Mays Kantor? If it shows a comparatively small Lab lead of just 4, it’s a shocker for the Tories. Whilst on your broad brush logic it’s within % Of everybody else.
Hope this helps 🙂
That's simply not the case. They are lower end for green, not lowest (survation have tended to be lower for example), they are not the highest Labour share generally, they are perhaps or even probably above the average but again, nothing unusual. And their gap is not out of line with the others. There is no stark difference being consistently shown. The pollsters are actually unusually tight at the moment, with very occasional blips like that 1% yougov.
I also hope this helps.
Ha ha ha. You are clearly saying a green share of 3 from one pollster and a green share of 8 from another are both correct simultaneously.
So are you agreeing a May Kantor of 4% Lab lead or more is a shocker for the Tories?
Nobody is 'correct' there is nothing to judge it on, there is no GE to refer against. Polls are a snapshot. And for the record no 'current' poll has the greens on 8 (this one has them on 4 not 3) No, I'm not. I don't judge things on movement from one poll of 1000 or so people to the next, that's what people should don't understand psychology do on twitter and get terribly excited by it. Polls offer hints only on direction of travel etc. Your initial assertion that ComRes are starkly different to everyone else on Green score, Lab score and gap is simply incorrect. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Psephology. Not autocorrected psychology, duh
I think it came from Greek word meaning counting pebbles.
Many times on PB I have tried spelling it, halfway through it looks like an ophthalmologist, so I delete it and call them pebble counters.
Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who moved to Haiti?
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I've been saying for ages Boris will win the next election with a reduced majority... I do think it'll be the last time for Con for this run though. Lab win a majority government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's probably a Labour decade.
Majority governments all the way until 2040 at least. The public had quite enough of the "balanced parliament" experience from 2017-2019 lol!
Very possible for next time anc 2028 although I am extremely doubtful about a labour decade. They've only ever once had dominance like that and I can't see them having it again.
I tend to think the longer a party spends in government the longer they're destined to spend in opposition when they inevitably get booted out.
By 2028 Con will have had another 18 year run in office and I doubt the public will be in any mood to see them back for at least a decade...
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I've been saying for ages Boris will win the next election with a reduced majority... I do think it'll be the last time for Con for this run though. Lab win a majority government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's probably a Labour decade.
Majority governments all the way until 2040 at least. The public had quite enough of the "balanced parliament" experience from 2017-2019 lol!
At the moment it looks like Starmer PM in a hung parliament with LD support, 2010 in reverse except with Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown.
Starmer is not disliked enough unlike Kinnock or Corbyn for swing voters to vote Tory still to keep him out
When the election is called and the public see the polls are pointing towards Lab largest party but short of a majority and a coalition chaos between Lab/Lib/SNP/Grn is likely they will, grudgingly, head back to Boris and Con.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I've been saying for ages Boris will win the next election with a reduced majority... I do think it'll be the last time for Con for this run though. Lab win a majority government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's probably a Labour decade.
Majority governments all the way until 2040 at least. The public had quite enough of the "balanced parliament" experience from 2017-2019 lol!
Very possible for next time anc 2028 although I am extremely doubtful about a labour decade. They've only ever once had dominance like that and I can't see them having it again.
I tend to think the longer a party spends in government the longer they're destined to spend in opposition when they inevitably get booted out.
By 2028 Con will have had another 18 year run in office and I doubt the public will be in any mood to see them back for at least a decade...
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
If Ukraine wins I promise to try very hard not to dispute who deserves the credit for the victory. Let anyone claim the credit if they wish. I'm sure many with less credible claims than Johnson will not be shy about making them.
I think it is important not to be naive about how Russia is fighting this war. The squeeze on grain and other commodities is not a bug, it is a feature. Russia intends to use food security and energy inflation as weapons against us. This is on top of the kompromat, bribery and subversion that has been used against almost all free democracies. Public Russian financial support for such people as Marine Le Pen, Alex Salmond or Aaron Banks has been given with the prospect of upsetting conventional democratic norms. The Trumpian wing of American politics serves the same purpose in the United States. These are simple facts, but few have been prepared to understand that Russian subversion of democracy has been committed and ongoing for many years.
Now that the Kleptocracy is facing increasing challenges at home their solution to growing domestic strife is now open war. This is not merely a war against democratic Ukraine, it is a war against all democratic states. The murders of British citizens with various poisons is just the hors d´oeuvres for a banquet of hatred that is served up every night on prime time Russian television. This is not some trivial regional conflict, it an attempt by a neo fascist state to break the will of free democracies. Those of us closest to Russia have recognised the nature of Putinism for several years, and if you have not understood us, now you should at least understand the deliberate horror and brutality unleashed by criminals on a peaceful neighbour.
The only way to ensure that the political war of subversion and the economic war unleashed against the West fails, is to ensure that Russia is defeated in their kinetic war in Ukraine. The murderous neo fascist regime in Moscow must then be either contained or destroyed. There is no compromise that can possibly work against the mind set of genuine evil in Moscow and it is extremely dangerous to beleive that the tyrant and his henchmen are prepared to return to any kind of real peace. Any truce would simply allow Russia to continue their war against us by other, hybrid, means.
The savage attack against Ukraine is not merely a crime, it is thankfully also a massive blunder, and it is not a mistake from that the Russian klepto-state should be allowed to recover from.
Putin delenda est is the only motto that can stop the unfolding economic crisis.
I see that something has been done with the road from Walthamstow to Tottenham Hale, including "Rain Gardens" (= strip of planting). For the Waltham Forest Mini-Holland.
Has anyone experienced this, yet?
Personally I'm sure it's thought through or ambitious enough - forcing children and others to cycle alongside 17k vehicles a day with no segregation. Hmmm.
That looks positively luxurious compared with the cycle lanes in Edinburgh.
Some knob tried to overtake me on North Bridge this morning (ultra narrow, with roadworks) and blasted his horn at me when I wouldn't go into the gutter. Needless to say I brought the city to a standstill by doing 1 mph the rest of the way across.
And that's with the buses diverted.
Mind, the nearest I ever came to being run over in Edinburgh was on South Bridge - I was walking across under the Green Man with plenty of time to spare, and a Reclaimn the Streets type demo of about 4 dozen cyclists just came straignt at me without stopping, through the red light. I couldn't even get to the kerb and had to stand still in fear and terror of the feral pack If I'd been the city head of planning, that would have made me want to cancel every single cycle lane in Edinburgh.
BTW. I hear that the Edinburgh Tram way is getting into its stride now.
Good news, as long as the bike tyres stay out of the tramlines.
Been running for a long time. You must mean the much delayed extension down to and through Leith?
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
In terms of anti tank missiles for instance, pivotal for the Ukranians containing the Russian advance, it was the UK which supplied the most
Aside from cherry picking an admittedly important type of military equipment, this is simply untrue. The US has been pumping Javelins into Ukraine at a vast rate - about one-third of its own (massive) stock.
Again, no wish to denegrate the UK contribution, but you're just living in an absolute John Bull fantasy world in terms of numbers.
The US provided 5,000 anti tank missiles, the UK over 10,000
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
It seems to have fired up Jamie pretty effectively.
I don't know who will prevail, as that will come down to the detail of the evidence, and in particular if Rebekah Vardy is held responsible for others access to her account.
It isn't a trivial case though, and not just because of the sums of money spent. It is a very interesting examination of how modern social media and celebrity culture intertwines with conventional Tabloid journalism. It is a story for our times.
The wealthy and celebrities behaving badly !!!!
While clearly Jamie is a rags to riches super star and Wayne a spud faced oaf, within the heirarchy of the England Team and their WAGs the Rooneys were the aristocratic elite looking down on the chavvy upstarts.
To most of us that seems difficult to comprehend, but the class system has always been about magnifying trivial differences to maintain a social heirarchy. Its a bit like a modern version of Regency aristocrats having a spat over some perceived social slight. Who snubbed who at the Society ball?
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
I agree. I speculated here about 3 months ago that moment could be right now, going into June. There was a bit of change of mood with the war dominating the news, if that had shown up in a pretty decent local election night, added to the fact looking ahead to a period of cost of living crisis and technical or un technical recession that could live in voters minds and in the polling, this summer could have been a good chance before what looks a difficult 18 months to be in government.
Obviously HYs immediate response was, what sort of a chump risks 80 seat majority with more than two years left for something better to turn up. Which is true. There are 30 months left of this parliament. I think Labour came in cropper summer on 1970 when they could have waited till 71, partly like I said above the local elections convinced them they were popular. 2017 is another example of that.
Todays polling at least shows Tory’s preferred by quite some way on best party to grow the economy, behind on main poll by a little bit, but ahead on the economy in a cost of living crisis gives this moment a bit of early 90s feel about it doesn’t it?
Another key measure is Best PM, as it’s known. The main reason I started with I agree with you, Labour currently have a tiny edge on Best PM, but despite initial bounce for new Lab Leader Wes or Nandy, they could soon look out of their depth “not ready yet” the voters will phrase it.
So even in depth of recession, if they are long way ahead on Best PM, the Tories should think about going for it.
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
It seems to have fired up Jamie pretty effectively.
I don't know who will prevail, as that will come down to the detail of the evidence, and in particular if Rebekah Vardy is held responsible for others access to her account.
It isn't a trivial case though, and not just because of the sums of money spent. It is a very interesting examination of how modern social media and celebrity culture intertwines with conventional Tabloid journalism. It is a story for our times.
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
I agree. I speculated here about 3 months ago that moment could be right now, going into June. There was a bit of change of mood with the war dominating the news, if that had shown up in a pretty decent local election night, added to the fact looking ahead to a period of cost of living crisis and technical or un technical recession that could live in voters minds and in the polling, this summer could have been a good chance before what looks a difficult 18 months to be in government.
Obviously HYs immediate response was, what sort of a chump risks 80 seat majority with more than two years left for something better to turn up. Which is true. There are 30 months left of this parliament. I think Labour came in cropper summer on 1970 when they could have waited till 71, partly like I said above the local elections convinced them they were popular. 2017 is another example of that.
Todays polling at least shows Tory’s preferred by quite some way on best party to grow the economy, behind on main poll by a little bit, but ahead on the economy in a cost of living crisis gives this moment a bit of early 90s feel about it doesn’t it?
Another key measure is Best PM, as it’s known. The main reason I started with I agree with you, Labour currently have a tiny edge on Best PM, but despite initial bounce for new Lab Leader Wes or Nandy, they could soon look out of their depth “not ready yet” the voters will phrase it.
So even in depth of recession, if they are long way ahead on Best PM, the Tories should think about going for it.
The other thing about going early is, ok they have an 80 seat majority but what do they want to 'do' with it? There's no overarching plan of action. If they go in 6 months after some CoL giveaways/support saw them sneak ahead, say, and cling to nurse got them a small majority they have 5 years to ride out the headwinds, better than 2 years of doing nothing with 80 seats snd losing heavily as we are in deep recession or the difficult exit from one.
I think it is important not to be naive about how Russia is fighting this war. The squeeze on grain and other commodities is not a bug, it is a feature. Russia intends to use food security and energy inflation as weapons against us. This is on top of the kompromat, bribery and subversion that has been used against almost all free democracies. Public Russian financial support for such people as Marine Le Pen, Alex Salmond or Aaron Banks has been given with the prospect of upsetting conventional democratic norms. The Trumpian wing of American politics serves the same purpose in the United States. These are simple facts, but few have been prepared to understand that Russian subversion of democracy has been committed and ongoing for many years.
Now that the Kleptocracy is facing increasing challenges at home their solution to growing domestic strife is now open war. This is not merely a war against democratic Ukraine, it is a war against all democratic states. The murders of British citizens with various poisons is just the hors d´oeuvres for a banquet of hatred that is served up every night on prime time Russian television. This is not some trivial regional conflict, it an attempt by a neo fascist state to break the will of free democracies. Those of us closest to Russia have recognised the nature of Putinism for several years, and if you have not understood us, now you should at least understand the deliberate horror and brutality unleashed by criminals on a peaceful neighbour.
The only way to ensure that the political war of subversion and the economic war unleashed against the West fails, is to ensure that Russia is defeated in their kinetic war in Ukraine. The murderous neo fascist regime in Moscow must then be either contained or destroyed. There is no compromise that can possibly work against the mind set of genuine evil in Moscow and it is extremely dangerous to beleive that the tyrant and his henchmen are prepared to return to any kind of real peace. Any truce would simply allow Russia to continue their war against us by other, hybrid, means.
The savage attack against Ukraine is not merely a crime, it is thankfully also a massive blunder, and it is not a mistake from that the Russian klepto-state should be allowed to recover from.
Putin delenda est is the only motto that can stop the unfolding economic crisis.
Russia's only route to any sort of victory is the blockade of Odesa. If that continues the economic pressure on Ukraine will become intolerable. The grain harvest cannot be exported, and this years harvest has no storage space left, so will rot. Starvation for the world but economically disasterous for Ukraine. A stalemate is no good if that blockade continues.
Correct me where wrong, there’s a paramilitary wing of the Green Party burning cars around the country in nighttime raids costing the Green Party soft voters?
I think it is important not to be naive about how Russia is fighting this war. The squeeze on grain and other commodities is not a bug, it is a feature. Russia intends to use food security and energy inflation as weapons against us. This is on top of the kompromat, bribery and subversion that has been used against almost all free democracies. Public Russian financial support for such people as Marine Le Pen, Alex Salmond or Aaron Banks has been given with the prospect of upsetting conventional democratic norms. The Trumpian wing of American politics serves the same purpose in the United States. These are simple facts, but few have been prepared to understand that Russian subversion of democracy has been committed and ongoing for many years.
Now that the Kleptocracy is facing increasing challenges at home their solution to growing domestic strife is now open war. This is not merely a war against democratic Ukraine, it is a war against all democratic states. The murders of British citizens with various poisons is just the hors d´oeuvres for a banquet of hatred that is served up every night on prime time Russian television. This is not some trivial regional conflict, it an attempt by a neo fascist state to break the will of free democracies. Those of us closest to Russia have recognised the nature of Putinism for several years, and if you have not understood us, now you should at least understand the deliberate horror and brutality unleashed by criminals on a peaceful neighbour.
The only way to ensure that the political war of subversion and the economic war unleashed against the West fails, is to ensure that Russia is defeated in their kinetic war in Ukraine. The murderous neo fascist regime in Moscow must then be either contained or destroyed. There is no compromise that can possibly work against the mind set of genuine evil in Moscow and it is extremely dangerous to beleive that the tyrant and his henchmen are prepared to return to any kind of real peace. Any truce would simply allow Russia to continue their war against us by other, hybrid, means.
The savage attack against Ukraine is not merely a crime, it is thankfully also a massive blunder, and it is not a mistake from that the Russian klepto-state should be allowed to recover from.
Putin delenda est is the only motto that can stop the unfolding economic crisis.
Russia's only route to any sort of victory is the blockade of Odesa. If that continues the economic pressure on Ukraine will become intolerable. The grain harvest cannot be exported, and this years harvest has no storage space left, so will rot. Starvation for the world but economically disasterous for Ukraine. A stalemate is no good if that blockade continues.
So find a way to sink the Russian subs. They have to go back to Sevastopol sometime.
Correct me where wrong, there’s a paramilitary wing of the Green Party burning cars around the country in nighttime raids costing the Green Party soft voters?
Redfield tend to show green 4 to 7% usually about 6 so it's on the low end of their range, but they've had a few 4s with them before Reform seems ridiculously high
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
I agree. I speculated here about 3 months ago that moment could be right now, going into June. There was a bit of change of mood with the war dominating the news, if that had shown up in a pretty decent local election night, added to the fact looking ahead to a period of cost of living crisis and technical or un technical recession that could live in voters minds and in the polling, this summer could have been a good chance before what looks a difficult 18 months to be in government.
Obviously HYs immediate response was, what sort of a chump risks 80 seat majority with more than two years left for something better to turn up. Which is true. There are 30 months left of this parliament. I think Labour came in cropper summer on 1970 when they could have waited till 71, partly like I said above the local elections convinced them they were popular. 2017 is another example of that.
Todays polling at least shows Tory’s preferred by quite some way on best party to grow the economy, behind on main poll by a little bit, but ahead on the economy in a cost of living crisis gives this moment a bit of early 90s feel about it doesn’t it?
Another key measure is Best PM, as it’s known. The main reason I started with I agree with you, Labour currently have a tiny edge on Best PM, but despite initial bounce for new Lab Leader Wes or Nandy, they could soon look out of their depth “not ready yet” the voters will phrase it.
So even in depth of recession, if they are long way ahead on Best PM, the Tories should think about going for it.
I still wouldn't expect an election before autumn 2023, as that's the earliest that it could be contested on the new boundaries.
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
It seems to have fired up Jamie pretty effectively.
I don't know who will prevail, as that will come down to the detail of the evidence, and in particular if Rebekah Vardy is held responsible for others access to her account.
It isn't a trivial case though, and not just because of the sums of money spent. It is a very interesting examination of how modern social media and celebrity culture intertwines with conventional Tabloid journalism. It is a story for our times.
Vardy fail nailed on
I think Rebekah will probably lose, but it does hinge on how bullet proof Coleen's detective work is. If there are flaws in it, then Rebekah can win.
Coleen didn't just cut off social contact with Rebekah, she deliberately publically humiliated her. If that turns out not to be justified it could be quite expensive indeed.
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
From what I can tell it seems like Vardy doesn't seem very convincing, with all the 'lost' evidence, but presumably it's hard for Rooney to prove her accusations were actually true (and Vardy can just blame the agent) and in the public interest.
Spot on. But making out your one of the girls whilst selling the private and personal gossip to the press is a mardy thing to do though. Hence the social media backlash against her… from people buying the papers and loving the gossip.
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
It seems to have fired up Jamie pretty effectively.
I don't know who will prevail, as that will come down to the detail of the evidence, and in particular if Rebekah Vardy is held responsible for others access to her account.
It isn't a trivial case though, and not just because of the sums of money spent. It is a very interesting examination of how modern social media and celebrity culture intertwines with conventional Tabloid journalism. It is a story for our times.
Vardy fail nailed on
I think Rebekah will probably lose, but it does hinge on how bullet proof Coleen's detective work is. If there are flaws in it, then Rebekah can win.
Coleen didn't just cut off social contact with Rebekah, she deliberately publically humiliated her. If that turns out not to be justified it could be quite expensive indeed.
I think it is important not to be naive about how Russia is fighting this war. The squeeze on grain and other commodities is not a bug, it is a feature. Russia intends to use food security and energy inflation as weapons against us. This is on top of the kompromat, bribery and subversion that has been used against almost all free democracies. Public Russian financial support for such people as Marine Le Pen, Alex Salmond or Aaron Banks has been given with the prospect of upsetting conventional democratic norms. The Trumpian wing of American politics serves the same purpose in the United States. These are simple facts, but few have been prepared to understand that Russian subversion of democracy has been committed and ongoing for many years.
Now that the Kleptocracy is facing increasing challenges at home their solution to growing domestic strife is now open war. This is not merely a war against democratic Ukraine, it is a war against all democratic states. The murders of British citizens with various poisons is just the hors d´oeuvres for a banquet of hatred that is served up every night on prime time Russian television. This is not some trivial regional conflict, it an attempt by a neo fascist state to break the will of free democracies. Those of us closest to Russia have recognised the nature of Putinism for several years, and if you have not understood us, now you should at least understand the deliberate horror and brutality unleashed by criminals on a peaceful neighbour.
The only way to ensure that the political war of subversion and the economic war unleashed against the West fails, is to ensure that Russia is defeated in their kinetic war in Ukraine. The murderous neo fascist regime in Moscow must then be either contained or destroyed. There is no compromise that can possibly work against the mind set of genuine evil in Moscow and it is extremely dangerous to beleive that the tyrant and his henchmen are prepared to return to any kind of real peace. Any truce would simply allow Russia to continue their war against us by other, hybrid, means.
The savage attack against Ukraine is not merely a crime, it is thankfully also a massive blunder, and it is not a mistake from that the Russian klepto-state should be allowed to recover from.
Putin delenda est is the only motto that can stop the unfolding economic crisis.
Russia's only route to any sort of victory is the blockade of Odesa. If that continues the economic pressure on Ukraine will become intolerable. The grain harvest cannot be exported, and this years harvest has no storage space left, so will rot. Starvation for the world but economically disasterous for Ukraine. A stalemate is no good if that blockade continues.
So find a way to sink the Russian subs. They have to go back to Sevastopol sometime.
Its a bit more complicated than that. The Economist had a good article on it:
Has anyone got a view on who will win the Wagatha case or is it too simple to be worth discussing? or have I missed a discussion?
It seems to have fired up Jamie pretty effectively.
I don't know who will prevail, as that will come down to the detail of the evidence, and in particular if Rebekah Vardy is held responsible for others access to her account.
It isn't a trivial case though, and not just because of the sums of money spent. It is a very interesting examination of how modern social media and celebrity culture intertwines with conventional Tabloid journalism. It is a story for our times.
The wealthy and celebrities behaving badly !!!!
While clearly Jamie is a rags to riches super star and Wayne a spud faced oaf, within the heirarchy of the England Team and their WAGs the Rooneys were the aristocratic elite looking down on the chavvy upstarts.
To most of us that seems difficult to comprehend, but the class system has always been about magnifying trivial differences to maintain a social heirarchy. Its a bit like a modern version of Regency aristocrats having a spat over some perceived social slight. Who snubbed who at the Society ball?
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
I agree. I speculated here about 3 months ago that moment could be right now, going into June. There was a bit of change of mood with the war dominating the news, if that had shown up in a pretty decent local election night, added to the fact looking ahead to a period of cost of living crisis and technical or un technical recession that could live in voters minds and in the polling, this summer could have been a good chance before what looks a difficult 18 months to be in government.
Obviously HYs immediate response was, what sort of a chump risks 80 seat majority with more than two years left for something better to turn up. Which is true. There are 30 months left of this parliament. I think Labour came in cropper summer on 1970 when they could have waited till 71, partly like I said above the local elections convinced them they were popular. 2017 is another example of that.
Todays polling at least shows Tory’s preferred by quite some way on best party to grow the economy, behind on main poll by a little bit, but ahead on the economy in a cost of living crisis gives this moment a bit of early 90s feel about it doesn’t it?
Another key measure is Best PM, as it’s known. The main reason I started with I agree with you, Labour currently have a tiny edge on Best PM, but despite initial bounce for new Lab Leader Wes or Nandy, they could soon look out of their depth “not ready yet” the voters will phrase it.
So even in depth of recession, if they are long way ahead on Best PM, the Tories should think about going for it.
I still wouldn't expect an election before autumn 2023, as that's the earliest that it could be contested on the new boundaries.
If he got into a big lead for random reasons he won't wait for boundaries, the 12 or so seat difference disintegrates on a small swing of 1% or so Getting the big lead is of course the tricky bit
BRUSSELS and LONDON — The European Union has confessed it is holding back funding for British scientists as punishment for U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's threat to rip up parts of the Brexit deal.
For as long as the spat over post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland drags on, Brussels won’t let the U.K. be part of its flagship Horizon research and innovation program, according to an official letter sent to a British politician.
EU responds to threats to not cooperate and breaking an agreement, by actually not cooperating and by actually breaking agreement….
Spot on. The only sane response from EU should have been “we only have rhetoric so from from UK, so no action from us. But if they progress their parliamentary action, nothing is off the table in our response.”
EU commission demonstrate time and again, they are made up of failed politicians in their own domestic politics, getting call after call wrong.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
In terms of anti tank missiles for instance, pivotal for the Ukranians containing the Russian advance, it was the UK which supplied the most
Aside from cherry picking an admittedly important type of military equipment, this is simply untrue. The US has been pumping Javelins into Ukraine at a vast rate - about one-third of its own (massive) stock.
Again, no wish to denegrate the UK contribution, but you're just living in an absolute John Bull fantasy world in terms of numbers.
The US provided 5,000 anti tank missiles, the UK over 10,000
In any case, an anti-tank missile (especially once translators and journalists have been at it) could be anything from a bazooka rocket to a very expensive TOW. There's a whole range of them. This sort of stat is like counting 23 half-pints, 4 pints and a barrel of beer as 27 beers. NLAW, for instance, is much lighter and shorter range than Javelin.
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
I agree. I speculated here about 3 months ago that moment could be right now, going into June. There was a bit of change of mood with the war dominating the news, if that had shown up in a pretty decent local election night, added to the fact looking ahead to a period of cost of living crisis and technical or un technical recession that could live in voters minds and in the polling, this summer could have been a good chance before what looks a difficult 18 months to be in government.
Obviously HYs immediate response was, what sort of a chump risks 80 seat majority with more than two years left for something better to turn up. Which is true. There are 30 months left of this parliament. I think Labour came in cropper summer on 1970 when they could have waited till 71, partly like I said above the local elections convinced them they were popular. 2017 is another example of that.
Todays polling at least shows Tory’s preferred by quite some way on best party to grow the economy, behind on main poll by a little bit, but ahead on the economy in a cost of living crisis gives this moment a bit of early 90s feel about it doesn’t it?
Another key measure is Best PM, as it’s known. The main reason I started with I agree with you, Labour currently have a tiny edge on Best PM, but despite initial bounce for new Lab Leader Wes or Nandy, they could soon look out of their depth “not ready yet” the voters will phrase it.
So even in depth of recession, if they are long way ahead on Best PM, the Tories should think about going for it.
I still wouldn't expect an election before autumn 2023, as that's the earliest that it could be contested on the new boundaries.
If he got into a big lead for random reasons he won't wait for boundaries, the 12 or so seat difference disintegrates on a small swing of 1% or so Getting the big lead is of course the tricky bit
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I've been saying for ages Boris will win the next election with a reduced majority... I do think it'll be the last time for Con for this run though. Lab win a majority government in 2028/2029 with the 2030's probably a Labour decade.
Majority governments all the way until 2040 at least. The public had quite enough of the "balanced parliament" experience from 2017-2019 lol!
At the moment it looks like Starmer PM in a hung parliament with LD support, 2010 in reverse except with Starmer as Cameron and Boris as Brown.
Starmer is not disliked enough unlike Kinnock or Corbyn for swing voters to vote Tory still to keep him out
So it’s the position you just described, -Lab +Tory total for swing back figure we currently don’t know, though suspect swingback even just a little, minus tory total for possible anti tory tacticals in remainia, set against an early 90s backdrop of looking for green economic shoots whilst voters feel squeezed, and likely wait till the election campaign itself to decide whose best for putting money into their pockets?
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
I agree. I speculated here about 3 months ago that moment could be right now, going into June. There was a bit of change of mood with the war dominating the news, if that had shown up in a pretty decent local election night, added to the fact looking ahead to a period of cost of living crisis and technical or un technical recession that could live in voters minds and in the polling, this summer could have been a good chance before what looks a difficult 18 months to be in government.
Obviously HYs immediate response was, what sort of a chump risks 80 seat majority with more than two years left for something better to turn up. Which is true. There are 30 months left of this parliament. I think Labour came in cropper summer on 1970 when they could have waited till 71, partly like I said above the local elections convinced them they were popular. 2017 is another example of that.
Todays polling at least shows Tory’s preferred by quite some way on best party to grow the economy, behind on main poll by a little bit, but ahead on the economy in a cost of living crisis gives this moment a bit of early 90s feel about it doesn’t it?
Another key measure is Best PM, as it’s known. The main reason I started with I agree with you, Labour currently have a tiny edge on Best PM, but despite initial bounce for new Lab Leader Wes or Nandy, they could soon look out of their depth “not ready yet” the voters will phrase it.
So even in depth of recession, if they are long way ahead on Best PM, the Tories should think about going for it.
I still wouldn't expect an election before autumn 2023, as that's the earliest that it could be contested on the new boundaries.
If he got into a big lead for random reasons he won't wait for boundaries, the 12 or so seat difference disintegrates on a small swing of 1% or so Getting the big lead is of course the tricky bit
Savanta one of the oddest in the pack how their Green scores so low and their Labour so high and gap between main parties so wide.
Or for odd you could use most accurate?
It's within a couple % of everything released recently. It's not remotely odd.
At first glance you a right, further investigation you are wrong, because they are consistently doing this - low green high labour, in stark relation to everybody else. Look for Trend from each pollster first, and then in the trend from other pollsters for change of trend.
For example, where is Mays Kantor? If it shows a comparatively small Lab lead of just 4, it’s a shocker for the Tories. Whilst on your broad brush logic it’s within % Of everybody else.
Hope this helps 🙂
That's simply not the case. They are lower end for green, not lowest (survation have tended to be lower for example), they are not the highest Labour share generally, they are perhaps or even probably above the average but again, nothing unusual. And their gap is not out of line with the others. There is no stark difference being consistently shown. The pollsters are actually unusually tight at the moment, with very occasional blips like that 1% yougov.
I also hope this helps.
Ha ha ha. You are clearly saying a green share of 3 from one pollster and a green share of 8 from another are both correct simultaneously.
So are you agreeing a May Kantor of 4% Lab lead or more is a shocker for the Tories?
Nobody is 'correct' there is nothing to judge it on, there is no GE to refer against. Polls are a snapshot. And for the record no 'current' poll has the greens on 8 (this one has them on 4 not 3) No, I'm not. I don't judge things on movement from one poll of 1000 or so people to the next, that's what people should don't understand psychology do on twitter and get terribly excited by it. Polls offer hints only on direction of travel etc. Your initial assertion that ComRes are starkly different to everyone else on Green score, Lab score and gap is simply incorrect. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Psephology. Not autocorrected psychology, duh
I think it came from Greek word meaning counting pebbles.
Many times on PB I have tried spelling it, halfway through it looks like an ophthalmologist, so I delete it and call them pebble counters.
Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who moved to Haiti?
He became a Voodoo Pole!
(I thank you!)
Just pointing out there are currently no likes for that one. But don’t stop trying.
Did I tell you I was unsuccessful growing dolphins? I learn now I should have used multi porpoise compost.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
In terms of anti tank missiles for instance, pivotal for the Ukranians containing the Russian advance, it was the UK which supplied the most
Aside from cherry picking an admittedly important type of military equipment, this is simply untrue. The US has been pumping Javelins into Ukraine at a vast rate - about one-third of its own (massive) stock.
Again, no wish to denegrate the UK contribution, but you're just living in an absolute John Bull fantasy world in terms of numbers.
The US provided 5,000 anti tank missiles, the UK over 10,000
In any case, an anti-tank missile (especially once translators and journalists have been at it) could be anything from a bazooka rocket to a very expensive TOW. There's a whole range of them. This sort of stat is like counting 23 half-pints, 4 pints and a barrel of beer as 27 beers. NLAW, for instance, is much lighter and shorter range than Javelin.
Yes it is.
They are all anti tank missiles and the UK provided more of them than any other nation and they were pivotal in Ukraine slowing the initial stages of the Russian advance
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
I agree. I speculated here about 3 months ago that moment could be right now, going into June. There was a bit of change of mood with the war dominating the news, if that had shown up in a pretty decent local election night, added to the fact looking ahead to a period of cost of living crisis and technical or un technical recession that could live in voters minds and in the polling, this summer could have been a good chance before what looks a difficult 18 months to be in government.
Obviously HYs immediate response was, what sort of a chump risks 80 seat majority with more than two years left for something better to turn up. Which is true. There are 30 months left of this parliament. I think Labour came in cropper summer on 1970 when they could have waited till 71, partly like I said above the local elections convinced them they were popular. 2017 is another example of that.
Todays polling at least shows Tory’s preferred by quite some way on best party to grow the economy, behind on main poll by a little bit, but ahead on the economy in a cost of living crisis gives this moment a bit of early 90s feel about it doesn’t it?
Another key measure is Best PM, as it’s known. The main reason I started with I agree with you, Labour currently have a tiny edge on Best PM, but despite initial bounce for new Lab Leader Wes or Nandy, they could soon look out of their depth “not ready yet” the voters will phrase it.
So even in depth of recession, if they are long way ahead on Best PM, the Tories should think about going for it.
The other thing about going early is, ok they have an 80 seat majority but what do they want to 'do' with it? There's no overarching plan of action. If they go in 6 months after some CoL giveaways/support saw them sneak ahead, say, and cling to nurse got them a small majority they have 5 years to ride out the headwinds, better than 2 years of doing nothing with 80 seats snd losing heavily as we are in deep recession or the difficult exit from one.
And, If there’s any benefit at all from a short spell in opposition, you can cleanse your body, and rejuvenate your soul.
BRUSSELS and LONDON — The European Union has confessed it is holding back funding for British scientists as punishment for U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson's threat to rip up parts of the Brexit deal.
For as long as the spat over post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland drags on, Brussels won’t let the U.K. be part of its flagship Horizon research and innovation program, according to an official letter sent to a British politician.
EU responds to threats to not cooperate and breaking an agreement, by actually not cooperating and by actually breaking agreement….
That's actually their loss tbh, without UK and Swiss science the scheme is a bit of a joke given that the UK and Switzerland the two life science and biotech powerhouses in Europe and that's not because of any schemes, it's because of how much domestic funding is pumped into the sector via university fees and overseas students. My sister said from the beginning that it's better for her university to be able to charge EU students overseas rates than anything they get from Horizon and she works for a very prominent scientific research uni, it's like giving up a few million in grants to gain tens of millions in additional fees.
Anyway, as I've said from the very beginning, and I hope people are beginning to listen, we can expect no favours from the EU so we should do them no favours. If it's not to the letter of the TCA then the answer is immediately a no and, IMO, this should also cover defence and intelligence cooperation outside of the bounds of NATO and any bilateral treaties we have with allied nations within the EU. No more freebies.
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
No chance
We have full employment, discretionary spending is still happpening big time, house prices continue upwards.
Money needs to be taken out of the economy.
I disagree.
Over the next six months, pretty much every household in the UK will see their gas and electricity bills rise - in some cases as much as 150 or 200%.
People in the bottom two income deciles will see enormous drops in their disposable income. And even people in the next two or three will see pretty significant ones.
Raising interest rates will do little to reduce energy imported inflation, and would take money out of exactly those people most on the edge.
Correct me where wrong, there’s a paramilitary wing of the Green Party burning cars around the country in nighttime raids costing the Green Party soft voters?
Redfield tend to show green 4 to 7% usually about 6 so it's on the low end of their range, but they've had a few 4s with them before Reform seems ridiculously high
It’s too simplistic to say two off Tory, two on reform after bad week of economic headlines?
I haven’t looked it up, but off top my head, the leads Labour enjoyed in 2012 was partly a Farage bounce at Tory expense after budget flop? Ultimately, as 2015 shows, those softer votes went back to the Tories when it mattered.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
As so
That is slightly mean to France: they were second only behind us in actually getting military kit to the Ukrainians. The difference is that while we've sent it gratis, they've allowed the Ukrainians to buy as much weapons kit as they like, but it's on credit. Presumably at some point in the future, they'll send money as foreign aid to Ukraine to allow it to pay for the weapons it bought.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
It's not Putin's job to be concerned about the British economy or public. It should be the concern of Boris and his Government. We are being manoeuvred into a scenario where absolute victory as defined by those setting this agenda must be won 'whatever the cost'. I'm sorry but that is patently absurd. We choose whether policing a given corner of the world is more important than British people struggling to eat well or heat their houses. We're constantly told that Putin is struggling to gain small stretches of Ukraine - so why is unseating him so essential to British security interests as to spend billions and cut off chunks of our economy in this way?
Simple Putinguy, the reason your long term idle Putin is struggling is in no small part because of the aid our allies are giving to Ukraine which is working. Cutting what is working is not smart.
Oh and the cost of living rises the war is causing would still be getting caused whether we gave aid or not. Even if we cut and ran today abandoning our allies to support this on their own the cost of living crisis would still be there as Ukraine still won't be able to export it's food etc - only an end to the war, which means Putin defeated, will end the crisis.
The sooner Putin fails, the sooner we can move on and the crisis ends and the cost of living will come back down. Failing to give aid will just result in the crisis dragging on for even longer, costing us far, far more.
PS the few billion we are giving to Ukraine are an utter pittance compared to the amount spent on welfare etc. It is an utter bargain value for money.
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
No chance
We have full employment, discretionary spending is still happpening big time, house prices continue upwards.
Money needs to be taken out of the economy.
I disagree.
Over the next six months, pretty much every household in the UK will see their gas and electricity bills rise - in some cases as much as 150 or 200%.
People in the bottom two income deciles will see enormous drops in their disposable income. And even people in the next two or three will see pretty significant ones.
Raising interest rates will do little to reduce energy imported inflation, and would take money out of exactly those people most on the edge.
Raising rates would cause asset prices to fall which surely hits the wealthy asset rich more than it does the asset poor.
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
No chance
We have full employment, discretionary spending is still happpening big time, house prices continue upwards.
Money needs to be taken out of the economy.
I disagree.
Over the next six months, pretty much every household in the UK will see their gas and electricity bills rise - in some cases as much as 150 or 200%.
People in the bottom two income deciles will see enormous drops in their disposable income. And even people in the next two or three will see pretty significant ones.
Raising interest rates will do little to reduce energy imported inflation, and would take money out of exactly those people most on the edge.
Raising rates would cause asset prices to fall which surely hits the wealthy asset rich more than it does the asset poor.
From an asset wealth perspective, you are absolutely right.
From a disposable income perspective, I'm not sure you are.
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
I agree. I speculated here about 3 months ago that moment could be right now, going into June. There was a bit of change of mood with the war dominating the news, if that had shown up in a pretty decent local election night, added to the fact looking ahead to a period of cost of living crisis and technical or un technical recession that could live in voters minds and in the polling, this summer could have been a good chance before what looks a difficult 18 months to be in government.
Obviously HYs immediate response was, what sort of a chump risks 80 seat majority with more than two years left for something better to turn up. Which is true. There are 30 months left of this parliament. I think Labour came in cropper summer on 1970 when they could have waited till 71, partly like I said above the local elections convinced them they were popular. 2017 is another example of that.
Todays polling at least shows Tory’s preferred by quite some way on best party to grow the economy, behind on main poll by a little bit, but ahead on the economy in a cost of living crisis gives this moment a bit of early 90s feel about it doesn’t it?
Another key measure is Best PM, as it’s known. The main reason I started with I agree with you, Labour currently have a tiny edge on Best PM, but despite initial bounce for new Lab Leader Wes or Nandy, they could soon look out of their depth “not ready yet” the voters will phrase it.
So even in depth of recession, if they are long way ahead on Best PM, the Tories should think about going for it.
The other thing about going early is, ok they have an 80 seat majority but what do they want to 'do' with it? There's no overarching plan of action. If they go in 6 months after some CoL giveaways/support saw them sneak ahead, say, and cling to nurse got them a small majority they have 5 years to ride out the headwinds, better than 2 years of doing nothing with 80 seats snd losing heavily as we are in deep recession or the difficult exit from one.
And, If there’s any benefit at all from a short spell in opposition, you can cleanse your body, and rejuvenate your soul.
The key words are "short spell in opposition". That kind of decadent thinking set in with the Conservatives in 1994ish, and it's one of the factors that turned a defeat into a rout that took three terms to overcome.
On the Conservative side, it's another variation of "After you, Claude". Conservative MPs could ditch Johnson tomorrow, if only they could find some prosthetic backbones. Instead, they have waited for local elections or the Met to do it. Now, they are going to wait for the general public to do it. Pathetic doesn't begin to cover it.
Article all about UC. No mention of other benefits, especially disability, where the most horrendous tales of fuel and food poverty will come in next few months.
With the headwinds, I reckon if anything happens that means the Tories get to a consistent 5% plus ahead for a bit they will cut and run any time from now to late 24
I agree. I speculated here about 3 months ago that moment could be right now, going into June. There was a bit of change of mood with the war dominating the news, if that had shown up in a pretty decent local election night, added to the fact looking ahead to a period of cost of living crisis and technical or un technical recession that could live in voters minds and in the polling, this summer could have been a good chance before what looks a difficult 18 months to be in government.
Obviously HYs immediate response was, what sort of a chump risks 80 seat majority with more than two years left for something better to turn up. Which is true. There are 30 months left of this parliament. I think Labour came in cropper summer on 1970 when they could have waited till 71, partly like I said above the local elections convinced them they were popular. 2017 is another example of that.
Todays polling at least shows Tory’s preferred by quite some way on best party to grow the economy, behind on main poll by a little bit, but ahead on the economy in a cost of living crisis gives this moment a bit of early 90s feel about it doesn’t it?
Another key measure is Best PM, as it’s known. The main reason I started with I agree with you, Labour currently have a tiny edge on Best PM, but despite initial bounce for new Lab Leader Wes or Nandy, they could soon look out of their depth “not ready yet” the voters will phrase it.
So even in depth of recession, if they are long way ahead on Best PM, the Tories should think about going for it.
You're the second poster tonight to speculate what the Tories should do if they are ahead. They aren't. And there's been absolutely no sign of that changing for months now.
Correct me where wrong, there’s a paramilitary wing of the Green Party burning cars around the country in nighttime raids costing the Green Party soft voters?
Redfield tend to show green 4 to 7% usually about 6 so it's on the low end of their range, but they've had a few 4s with them before Reform seems ridiculously high
It’s too simplistic to say two off Tory, two on reform after bad week of economic headlines?
I haven’t looked it up, but off top my head, the leads Labour enjoyed in 2012 was partly a Farage bounce at Tory expense after budget flop? Ultimately, as 2015 shows, those softer votes went back to the Tories when it mattered.
Just seems oddly high. I mean they get zero coverage. Literally zero. They won a pitiful 2 councillors and barely stood anywhere and they've been abject in by elections, and brexit is receeding and they have no Farage. Where is the 5% from? I'll eat my hat if they get above 2% in a GE even if they stand more than a few dozen candidates.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Without wishing to denegrate the UK contribution to Ukraine, the US contribution under the "geriatric Biden" as you put it is just VASTLY more than everyone else in the world put together.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
As so
True, but let’s not ignore the training the U.K. has provided the Ukrainian military over the past 8 years…..8 years longer than almost anyone else…..
Something about which we should be very proud, and which bring credit to both Johnson and Cameron.
Comments
Meanwhile Sturgeon cannot even run a decent rail service, as the nationalised ScotRail slashes services
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-61504782
They are dreadful at selling things
Great journalism.
Difficult to see what that might be either.
They'll struggle to force it to happen certainly
Edit- as a random example, and I'm not predicting this!
The Ukraine war intensifies and as we get dragged in Starmer expels the NATO naysayers who coalesce in a new party around Corbyn. It gets a few % national support, all from labour.
Ukraine is resolved, election called.
Unlikely but events events events
There is also the point that I doubt if (virtually) anyone who responded against the proposal would ever vote for this conservative party.
You'd expect that as a military superpower which remains very wealthy with a huge arms industry. And, as I say, not knocking the UK contribution. But there is simply no comparison between anyone else and the US.
But we'd have far more to worry about than the next election.
It's also possible an obvious global financial meltdown could provoke a cling to nurse response (mori today for example had a Tory few points lead on grow the economy)
BBC News - Rebekah Vardy: Case against her is 'conspiracy' her lawyer says
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-61506901
Majority governments all the way until 2040 at least. The public had quite enough of the "balanced parliament" experience from 2017-2019 lol!
For as long as the spat over post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland drags on, Brussels won’t let the U.K. be part of its flagship Horizon research and innovation program, according to an official letter sent to a British politician.
https://www.politico.eu/article/brexit-tensions-mean-brits-wont-get-eu-science-cash-brussels-warns/
EU responds to threats to not cooperate and breaking an agreement, by actually not cooperating and by actually breaking agreement….
A repellent human being.
I read something by a legal expert saying that Rooney cannot “prove” Vardy did it in a legal sense with actual evidence however common sense might view the fiasco differently.
I can imagine the judge destroying her but having to award the win - maybe a £1 award….. a nice lesson to fame obsessed and money crazed celebs all over, I hope.
The big winner however is Davey Jones whose career has been dragged up from the depths for a new generation.
My brother is a (usually extremely busy) self-employed plumber; he's starting to see a drop-off in quote requests.
Starmer is not disliked enough unlike Kinnock or Corbyn for swing voters to vote Tory still to keep him out
Silly post @GIN1138. The public can never decide to avoid hung parliaments. Everyone votes individually, largely unaware of how others are voting.
Putin has made his ambitions clear: and it is not just Ukraine. The question is whether those ambitions are good for Britain and the wider world. And the answer is no. The more Putin wins, the poorer and more dangerous the world becomes.
Therefore we have a choice: to spend the money now, or spend more in a few years.
It's a shame we didn't act a few years back, when even less money would have had a similar effect. But we gave Putin the impression that we would do next-to-nothing whatever he did.
Again, no wish to denegrate the UK contribution, but you're just living in an absolute John Bull fantasy world in terms of numbers.
Our commitments of aid and weaponry have not been overburdening. Indeed, providing weapons we've already paid for so they are actually used strikes me as actually getting value for money from them for once.
So the only real question is about whether there are more general economic hits to us. The answer there may well be yes, but the invasion and disruption it has caused seems to have caused big economic hits echoing out anyway, so sitting it out wouldn't seem to provide that much benefit to us at all.
I do think in the UK’s defence it’s allowed others such as the US to do everything they can as if the UK can do what it has done with a relatively (to the US) small military it would have been shaming to others if they hadn’t done anything. Same applies of course to a number of Baltic/east European countries.
The UK and friends probably greased the wheels - the US provided the locomotive.
Labour 39% (–)
Conservative 33% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 12% (–)
Green 4% (-2)
Scottish National Party 4% (–)
Reform UK 5% (+2)
Other 3% (+2)
Changes +/- 15 May
https://t.co/yczLJnzUAy https://t.co/JjPLJ22n8v
Redfield new midweek poll
Noise!
https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20220422-military-aid-and-arms-for-ukraine
I absolutely loved his stuff, both his film music and his work with Jon Anderson.
Really gutted about this.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/may/19/vangelis-greek-composer-chariots-of-fire-blade-runner-dies?
Boris Johnson and the UK appear to be held in high regard in both Ukraine and the wider region (outside Russia, obvs.). Hence the Eurovision result and all the streets being renamed after Boris. Those early days were critical, and our contribution was massive at that time, although overshadowed now.
'missile' could also include unguided rockets, from a translated document such as this.
Many times on PB I have tried spelling it, halfway through it looks like an ophthalmologist, so I delete it and call them pebble counters.
I don't know who will prevail, as that will come down to the detail of the evidence, and in particular if Rebekah Vardy is held responsible for others access to her account.
It isn't a trivial case though, and not just because of the sums of money spent. It is a very interesting examination of how modern social media and celebrity culture intertwines with conventional Tabloid journalism. It is a story for our times.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8a-HfNE3EIo
He became a Voodoo Pole!
(I thank you!)
By 2028 Con will have had another 18 year run in office and I doubt the public will be in any mood to see them back for at least a decade...
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1527261396953620482
https://twitter.com/666_mancer/status/1527260849177612300
Now that the Kleptocracy is facing increasing challenges at home their solution to growing domestic strife is now open war. This is not merely a war against democratic Ukraine, it is a war against all democratic states. The murders of British citizens with various poisons is just the hors d´oeuvres for a banquet of hatred that is served up every night on prime time Russian television. This is not some trivial regional conflict, it an attempt by a neo fascist state to break the will of free democracies. Those of us closest to Russia have recognised the nature of Putinism for several years, and if you have not understood us, now you should at least understand the deliberate horror and brutality unleashed by criminals on a peaceful neighbour.
The only way to ensure that the political war of subversion and the economic war unleashed against the West fails, is to ensure that Russia is defeated in their kinetic war in Ukraine. The murderous neo fascist regime in Moscow must then be either contained or destroyed. There is no compromise that can possibly work against the mind set of genuine evil in Moscow and it is extremely dangerous to beleive that the tyrant and his henchmen are prepared to return to any kind of real peace. Any truce would simply allow Russia to continue their war against us by other, hybrid, means.
The savage attack against Ukraine is not merely a crime, it is thankfully also a massive blunder, and it is not a mistake from that the Russian klepto-state should be allowed to recover from.
Putin delenda est is the only motto that can stop the unfolding economic crisis.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/03/22/ukraine-weapons-military-aid-00019104
To most of us that seems difficult to comprehend, but the class system has always been about magnifying trivial differences to maintain a social heirarchy. Its a bit like a modern version of Regency aristocrats having a spat over some perceived social slight. Who snubbed who at the Society ball?
Obviously HYs immediate response was, what sort of a chump risks 80 seat majority with more than two years left for something better to turn up. Which is true. There are 30 months left of this parliament. I think Labour came in cropper summer on 1970 when they could have waited till 71, partly like I said above the local elections convinced them they were popular. 2017 is another example of that.
Todays polling at least shows Tory’s preferred by quite some way on best party to grow the economy, behind on main poll by a little bit, but ahead on the economy in a cost of living crisis gives this moment a bit of early 90s feel about it doesn’t it?
Another key measure is Best PM, as it’s known. The main reason I started with I agree with you, Labour currently have a tiny edge on Best PM, but despite initial bounce for new Lab Leader Wes or Nandy, they could soon look out of their depth “not ready yet” the voters will phrase it.
So even in depth of recession, if they are long way ahead on Best PM, the Tories should think about going for it.
If they go in 6 months after some CoL giveaways/support saw them sneak ahead, say, and cling to nurse got them a small majority they have 5 years to ride out the headwinds, better than 2 years of doing nothing with 80 seats snd losing heavily as we are in deep recession or the difficult exit from one.
Correct me where wrong, there’s a paramilitary wing of the Green Party burning cars around the country in nighttime raids costing the Green Party soft voters?
Reform seems ridiculously high
Coleen didn't just cut off social contact with Rebekah, she deliberately publically humiliated her. If that turns out not to be justified it could be quite expensive indeed.
Ukraine’s ports are worsening world hunger from TheEconomist https://www.economist.com/economist.com/europe/2022/05/18/how-to-unblock-ukraines-ports-to-relieve-world-hunger
Getting the big lead is of course the tricky bit
EU commission demonstrate time and again, they are made up of failed politicians in their own domestic politics, getting call after call wrong.
In any case, an anti-tank missile (especially once translators and journalists have been at it) could be anything from a bazooka rocket to a very expensive TOW. There's a whole range of them. This sort of stat is like counting 23 half-pints, 4 pints and a barrel of beer as 27 beers. NLAW, for instance, is much lighter and shorter range than Javelin.
Did I tell you I was unsuccessful growing dolphins? I learn now I should have used multi porpoise compost.
They are all anti tank missiles and the UK provided more of them than any other nation and they were pivotal in Ukraine slowing the initial stages of the Russian advance
Jon & Vangelis - I'll Find My Way Home
The Year of Living Dangerously - L'Enfant
Theme from the TV Series "Cosmos" (Heaven and Hell, 3rd Movement)
Vangelis - Alpha [1976!]
Vangelis - Opening, Closing & Alternate Titles from The Bounty
Blade Runner - Main Theme
Blade Runner - Rachel's Song
and of course
Blade Runner - Tears in Rain
I am now going to sob for a bit.
Anyway, as I've said from the very beginning, and I hope people are beginning to listen, we can expect no favours from the EU so we should do them no favours. If it's not to the letter of the TCA then the answer is immediately a no and, IMO, this should also cover defence and intelligence cooperation outside of the bounds of NATO and any bilateral treaties we have with allied nations within the EU. No more freebies.
Over the next six months, pretty much every household in the UK will see their gas and electricity bills rise - in some cases as much as 150 or 200%.
People in the bottom two income deciles will see enormous drops in their disposable income. And even people in the next two or three will see pretty significant ones.
Raising interest rates will do little to reduce energy imported inflation, and would take money out of exactly those people most on the edge.
I haven’t looked it up, but off top my head, the leads Labour enjoyed in 2012 was partly a Farage bounce at Tory expense after budget flop? Ultimately, as 2015 shows, those softer votes went back to the Tories when it mattered.
Oh and the cost of living rises the war is causing would still be getting caused whether we gave aid or not. Even if we cut and ran today abandoning our allies to support this on their own the cost of living crisis would still be there as Ukraine still won't be able to export it's food etc - only an end to the war, which means Putin defeated, will end the crisis.
The sooner Putin fails, the sooner we can move on and the crisis ends and the cost of living will come back down. Failing to give aid will just result in the crisis dragging on for even longer, costing us far, far more.
PS the few billion we are giving to Ukraine are an utter pittance compared to the amount spent on welfare etc. It is an utter bargain value for money.
From a disposable income perspective, I'm not sure you are.
On the Conservative side, it's another variation of "After you, Claude". Conservative MPs could ditch Johnson tomorrow, if only they could find some prosthetic backbones. Instead, they have waited for local elections or the Met to do it. Now, they are going to wait for the general public to do it. Pathetic doesn't begin to cover it.
https://www.ft.com/content/f5fcf3b0-d15c-41a2-994e-9496e4b9014e
Article all about UC. No mention of other benefits, especially disability, where the most horrendous tales of fuel and food poverty will come in next few months.
They aren't. And there's been absolutely no sign of that changing for months now.