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Betting on who’ll be PM after the next election – politicalbetting.com
Betting on who’ll be PM after the next election – politicalbetting.com
Unlike the previous thread this is about betting on who will be the Prime Minister after the next general election whenever that is.
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Whilst Starmer is still mired and sweating away in his scandal.
And a first, on a phone, on a hill, with blood on my hands 😇
lol!
“ It had been thought that Johnson and his wife were quite likely to be fined over at least one further event – the gathering held in the Downing Street flat on the night Dominic Cummings quit. Loud Abba music was heard coming from the flat that night, and Carrie Johnson (who was delighted to see Cummings go) was said to be celebrating with friends who work as government advisers. Sources have claimed that they were there for a work meeting, and that the PM was interviewing one of the attendees about a potential job. “
Labour have now lost 2 leaders in Milliband and Starmer, and two elections, 2015 and 2024, due to mishaps with takeaway food! Is that not amazing?
Westminster voting intention:
LAB: 39% (-1)
CON: 33% (-2)
LDEM: 12% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-2)
via @IpsosUK, 11 - 17 May
https://t.co/WCXPp19q7D
But certainly a category of Lib Dem I've not encountered before...
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1527211746519400450
Russia must not win this war,Ukraine must prevail" Scholz to🇩🇪parl ahead of🇪🇺summit
"We can take peace for granted only if prepared to defend it. It's lesson we learned
Brutally attacked country needs help in defendng&doing so can't be termed escalation"
The absence of concern for Putin's face is encouraging.
LAB: 39% (-1)
CON: 33% (-2)
LDM: 12% (+2)
GRN: 5% (-2)
I'm not saying whether that's right or wrong. Just that it's the psychology of it.
It would have been easier to ride out the FPNs than this.
Can you not see what’s actually going to happen? This is utter utter disaster for the Tories. They can’t get rid of him now, but, at exactly the same time, far from exonerating Boris this actually drags him deeper into unpopularity, as this has stench of one of the biggest WHITEWASHES OF ALL TIME!
“By my count the PM was at least 5 of the gatherings in respect of which there has been some enforcement
20.5.20 BYOB
19.6.20 PM birthday cake ambush CRIMINAL
13.11.20 Lee Cain leaving
13.11.20 No.10 flat - interviewing someone for a job in middle of ABBA party
17.12.20 Capt Steve Higham leaving
14.1.21 Private secs leaving”
If there’s not a single PB Tory who is not a teeny bit surprised, then imagine how this disastrous establishment cover up for police and the Tory Party goes down with the voters and in the history books? 19th May 2022 is an historic day.
They will have to exhume Peter Cook so he can do his judge skit again.
This is massive politically. This day all by itself seals Tory unpopularity for years to come.
That’s how this actually pans out, isn’t it?
The juxtaposition of the police letting the PM off for his attendance at various Downing Street lockdown parties with a government minister telling the police not to let off hungry people who steal food is very Britain 2022. What a time to be alive!
He's doing a Biden and could well overhaul Oz on the postals.
There will be some who are not as active at following political news who will have heard 'party on dudes' and now hear 'just a cake'
Net positive in ratings. But marginal.
I might be tempted to see what photos I have on my phone...
They were successful. Appointed to the role of Bozo's scapegoat.
So Labour minority government in a hung parliament with LD confidence and supply
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcgi-bin/usercode.py?scotcontrol=Y&CON=33&LAB=39&LIB=12&Reform=2&Green=3&UKIP=&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVReform=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=19&SCOTLAB=26.5&SCOTLIB=6&SCOTReform=0.5&SCOTGreen=2&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=43.5&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2019nbbase
Interestingly though, if Melenchon had made 2nd round, the dynamic would have been different. In a forced choice, many of those holding nose voting for Macron v Pen might have found Melenchon easier to vote for. As evidence, look at polling for the coming election.
I don’t know about glad flies, but flies are certainly glad to see me up here, I am going to have to go down and bath and put clean clothes on.
More button bright and sharp analysis from me later 😘
Anushka Asthana
@AnushkaAsthana
·
41m
Second Tory critic of the PM - sounds miserable. Thinks the PM is probably safe now but says "we are going to lose the next election with him as leader-he's toxic". The byelections in June could still sharpen minds
https://twitter.com/AnushkaAsthana/status/1527250496704204802
Say it ain't so.
: snapshot on key issues
- Lab lead Con on dealing with cost of living by 15 pts
- Lab lead Con on levelling up by 21 pts
- Con lead Lab on growing economy by 9 pts
- Parties neck & neck on managing relations with EU
https://twitter.com/keiranpedley/status/1527252576848191493/photo/1
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/may/19/jofra-archer-ruled-out-for-season-in-latest-england-injury-setback-cricket
https://twitter.com/ElectsWorld/status/1501306351183491072?s=20&t=nOJDsypZOg1j9DxoPsw_Ug.
On France, Macron has now appointed a female PM ahead of the legislative elections next month
https://www.newstatesman.com/international-politics/french-election-2022/2022/05/for-only-the-second-time-france-has-a-female-prime-minister
I hope I (we) are wrong.
The civil courts are more likely to provide a means of restitution than the broken criminal justice system.
Ex-Labour MP must pay £434k damages to woman he repeatedly assaulted
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/may/19/mike-hill-ex-labour-mp-compensation-woman-sexually-assaulted
I started following cricket in 1990 as an 11 year old, I remember David Gower saying facing four Jofra Archers was what it was like playing the Windies for two decades during his career.
There is a large, negative vote with Le Pen - a large number of French people will vote for anything/anyone against anyone named "Le Pen"
She does have a large personal following, though.
What happens to the French extreme right after Le Pen? Probably fragments. However, there is the possibility tha someone builds on her work - keeps/inherits the following but loses (some) of the negative.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/05/18/revealed-silicon-valley-algorithm-helping-liverpool-cope-history/
It all helps to explain why manager Jurgen Klopp chose to rotate nine key players in beating Southampton on Tuesday night, barely three days after needing 120 minutes to win the FA Cup.
It perhaps also helps to explain how Liverpool have slashed their number of lost days this season to injury by more than a third and retained such remarkable performance levels across 61 games.
Maybe it’s bad political tactics, but it’s more honourable than Johnson… if calling someone more honourable than Johnson isn’t damning with faint praise.
Turn on the taps this time.
Now that he’s under investigation himself, for the same offence, he’s remarkably quiet about it.
Also partly a luxury of big squads.
May be she was wrong on this occasion, but betting is about value not spotting the winner.!
And it's not surprising that they may have different results as the criminal courts demand proof beyond reasonable doubt, and the civil courts work on the balance of probabilities. That's a feature, not a bug - it's long been seen that the consequences of criminal conviction are so severe a higher standard must be applied.
None of that is to say that the criminal process for sexual offences works well... it's just that this case doesn't necessarily show it.
5 years for stealing a loaf of bread and 17 because he tried to run?
He's making the mistake of thinking that means his resignation would carry some positive reaction. It won't.
It’s the latest iteration of the sort of coaching made famous by Sir Clive Woodward and David Brailsford, with iteration being the operative word. Management decisions are all based on hard data, not a hunch or a feeling about anything.
Should he have called for BJ’s resignation when he was still just under investigation? Perhaps not. I’m not arguing Starmer is perfect. I didn’t vote for him and I live in his constituency. But on the topic of the possibility he might resign, which was where we started, I respect he has applied the same rules to himself as to others.
Very sad. The government really has run out of ideas and road
Johnson has lied his entire career. He’s been sacked twice for lying. He lied about the Northern Ireland Protocol. It’s not difficult to believe that everything he does is entirely for cynical reasons. I like to believe that that does not apply to all politicians.
Firstly, my understanding that MPs are the employer, and IPSA will only pay them on behalf of the MP and via expenses if that is indeed the arrangement. For this, the MPs get an insurance policy - but it is capped and the award in this case means Hill will need to pay the excess.
Secondly, even if allowed, limited liability works for an honest trading loss, but I believe creditors can, in certain circumstances, require a company to pursue a claim against a third party (such as a director whose wrongdoing is the underlying cause of the claim on the company). So, if well advised, the employee would look to block the winding up of the company and ensure, via the courts if necessary, the insolvency practitioner to pursue the claim against the ex-MP.
After pausing she asked her press officer: "Do I have to?"
He nodded indicating she would have to answer.
https://twitter.com/rachelwatson27/status/1527236342333288450
Thought I acknowledge I should have added 'retribution' to my original comment.
'I'm not like the other boys' is a cop out.
It's what others think of you, not what you announce to them that they should think of you.
It's not that this case shows anything in particular about the criminal justice system - rather that it sets something of a precedent, as it's the first such award against an MP.
The plaintiff also compared the process with going through the Parliamentary investigation route:
...“It is important that the many women who have been sexually harassed and assaulted by MPs know that there is another way of seeking justice and compensation for their losses,” she said.
“The parliamentary investigation route, which I went through, is arduous and very tough and conducted in private.
“Pursuing Mike Hill through the courts has meant that I might receive compensation for my financial losses and the process seems much more open and transparent.”
Woman A said the decision to take on Hill had nevertheless left her homeless, traumatised by post-traumatic stress disorder, suffering from severe depressive disorder and with limited prospects of a career.
“I have gone through two and a half years of hell. I left my job with nothing while he took his pension, and several months’ pay and was covered by £250,000 towards his legal fees. I had to crowdfund my case. The system, even through the courts, is weighted in favour of MPs,” she said...
I think a lot of posters viscerally hate Johnson and that clouds their judgement. I suspect the key factor is going to be the economy. Should the surge in inflation be short lived, and the government actually do something to help the worst off, then its not impossible for things to turn around.
BUT
There is a danger of the Corbyn effect. 2017 - Corbyn was magic grandpa. 2019 - Corbyn as the devil who must be kept out.
The public have seen Johnson as PM for 3 years now. It will be longer in 2023/4. Enough of them may say enough.
Plus it would fuck Persimmon, Berkeley and Wimpey. That £110million/£75million bonus should never be forgotten.
The name is also linked to the words for shepherd, and bandit, which also sounds about right. Also known as Aromanians. Iechydd da
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aromanians
So it's interesting but not precedent setting (indeed, legally, it isn't a precedent at all unless appealed to the Employment Appeals Tribunal, but I get your point more informally).
Clean, bright city centres easy to navigate. Modern joined up thinking that addresses overuse of cars.
Do it!
Parties yes, but nobody sane would call cake at the office at lunchtime a party.
I called for Boris to go, but I expected him to be fined for more than a frigging cake.
The PM, Chancellor and their teams were quite literally ambushed by Mrs Johnson and some junior staff with the cake.
(How is your wife, by the way?)
The problem is the NIMBYs and professional campaigners, who will frustrate the process wherever it is proposed.
A witness has come forward with a partial reg plate so hopefully they catch the bugger who hit her.