“The impact of poverty, and the impact of lack of opportunity for people, does lead to an increase in crime. There’s no two ways about that,” Andy Cooke
Except it really isn't as simple as that....when times are good and plenty of opportunities, you often find crime rises, because the majority have money, they get lots of new stuff, and so there is incentive for people to go nicking it. And say with drug use, people have money, they party, they want their coke, they fuels the gang fighting for the lucrative markets, etc.
We heard these claims around 2008 and early years of Coalition, with claims austerity would lead to poverty which leads to crime.
Property came has fallen in many areas of the Western world. Experts think that
- Cars are much less stealable. - The nature of personal possessions has changed - jewellery has pivoted to art rather than materials for most, expensive watches are less common etc. - The possessions that have some resale value are phone, laptops and some games consoles.
Not sure about cars being less easy to steal...also expensive watches are a massive market.
I agree about personal possessions having less value, but good example PS5, hard to get, people paying silly money for them, lots of incidents of people being robbed for them. When times are tough, people aren't paying 2x sticker price to get one, they are playing their PS4 instead.
Past 5 years we seen the same with big rise in collectibles likes sneakers, pokemon cards etc. Rare dogs as well getting nicked. Again, tough times, less people splashing out £500 on a pair of rare Nikes, nobody is interested in nicking £50 pair of Vans or £20 bargain basement knock-off brand.
PS5 scalpers are currently in the process of getting burned by Sony who have sent over a huge shipment. On average they're taking a 10% loss vs the RRP after fees and shipping costs. They're going to have to liquidate quickly or they're competing with RRP on it in shops.
I’m getting my PS5 on payday this month. It’s happened almost overnight, at least in my part of the world, that there’s suddenly a lot of genuine store supply of them.
I was about to express my commiserations, then I realised that I'd misread and it wasn't your P45 you received on payday, but a PS5 - whatever that is.
“The impact of poverty, and the impact of lack of opportunity for people, does lead to an increase in crime. There’s no two ways about that,” Andy Cooke
Except it really isn't as simple as that....when times are good and plenty of opportunities, you often find crime rises, because the majority have money, they get lots of new stuff, and so there is incentive for people to go nicking it. And say with drug use, people have money, they party, they want their coke, they fuels the gang fighting for the lucrative markets, etc.
We heard these claims around 2008 and early years of Coalition, with claims austerity would lead to poverty which leads to crime.
Property came has fallen in many areas of the Western world. Experts think that
- Cars are much less stealable. - The nature of personal possessions has changed - jewellery has pivoted to art rather than materials for most, expensive watches are less common etc. - The possessions that have some resale value are phone, laptops and some games consoles.
Not sure about cars being less easy to steal...also expensive watches are a massive market.
I agree about personal possessions having less value, but good example PS5, hard to get, people paying silly money for them, lots of incidents of people being robbed for them. When times are tough, people aren't paying 2x sticker price to get one, they are playing their PS4 instead.
Past 5 years we seen the same with big rise in collectibles likes sneakers, pokemon cards etc. Rare dogs as well getting nicked. Again, tough times, less people splashing out £500 on a pair of rare Nikes, nobody is interested in nicking £50 pair of Vans or £20 bargain basement knock-off brand.
PS5 scalpers are currently in the process of getting burned by Sony who have sent over a huge shipment. On average they're taking a 10% loss vs the RRP after fees and shipping costs. They're going to have to liquidate quickly or they're competing with RRP on it in shops.
I’m getting my PS5 on payday this month. It’s happened almost overnight, at least in my part of the world, that there’s suddenly a lot of genuine store supply of them.
I was about to express my commiserations, then I realised that I'd misread and it wasn't your P45 you received on payday, but a PS5 - whatever that is.
If I don’t get a P45 this month, I’ll get a PS5.
Well if you get the first, you will have plenty of time for the second.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Indeed so. The one thing within his control is to keep up arming the Ukranians, and make sure the $33bn of promised US kit makes it to the front lines.
The latter point has little or nothing to do with Johnson.
Rand Paul has more influence - though it looks as though he's been squashed for the time being. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/19/senate-40-billion-ukraine-aid-bill-00033719 ...The fact that the bill languished in Congress amid the fall of the crucial Ukrainian port city has irked lawmakers in both parties. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called it “repugnant” that Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has objected to swift passage of the measure for more than a week.
To delay the bill “for purely political motives,” Schumer said, “is to only strengthen Putin’s hand.”
Paul argues that the package raises questions of “unconstitutionality” as well as “affordability.” For days the Kentucky Republican demanded that the Senate amend the bill to designate a special federal watchdog to oversee how the $40 billion is spent.
“Isn’t there a more fiscally responsible way this could be done? What about taking the $40 billion from elsewhere in the budget?” Paul said this week.
Adopting Paul’s amendment would have sent the bill back to the House for another vote. And while Senate leaders brushed aside his proposal for a special watchdog, the bill as written would already force the Pentagon’s inspector general to review how the Defense Department spends the emergency funding and deliver a report to Congress. It also requires the Defense and State departments to keep tabs on the end use of weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine.
Aside from the power to transfer billions of dollars worth of weapons from U.S. troves, the package would provide another $6 billion to the Pentagon account for arming Ukraine’s military, as well as nearly $4 billion for military operations in Europe. The State Department would receive $4 billion for foreign military financing to help arm Ukraine and other NATO countries...
The UK Government has announced today (Thursday 19 May 2022) that it is introducing new sanctions against the Russian airline sector. State-owned Aeroflot, Russia’s largest airline, Ural Airlines and Rossiya Airlines will now be unable to sell their unused, lucrative landing slots at UK airports – preventing Russia from cashing in on an estimated £50 million.
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
I see that something has been done with the road from Walthamstow to Tottenham Hale, including "Rain Gardens" (= strip of planting). For the Waltham Forest Mini-Holland.
Has anyone experienced this, yet?
Personally I'm sure it's thought through or ambitious enough - forcing children and others to cycle alongside 17k vehicles a day with no segregation. Hmmm.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
“The impact of poverty, and the impact of lack of opportunity for people, does lead to an increase in crime. There’s no two ways about that,” Andy Cooke
Except it really isn't as simple as that....when times are good and plenty of opportunities, you often find crime rises, because the majority have money, they get lots of new stuff, and so there is incentive for people to go nicking it. And same with drug use, people have money, they party more, they want their coke, they fuels the gang fighting for the lucrative markets, etc. When people don't have much, they sit at home watching the programmes on their old telly with an old car out the front.
We heard these claims around 2008 and early years of Coalition, with claims austerity would lead to poverty which leads to crime.
I would like to emphasise that he is a different Andy Cooke to me.
Although I doubt many would confuse me with the chief inspector of constabulary .
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Indeed so. The one thing within his control is to keep up arming the Ukranians, and make sure the $33bn of promised US kit makes it to the front lines.
The latter point has little or nothing to do with Johnson.
Rand Paul has more influence - though it looks as though he's been squashed for the time being. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/19/senate-40-billion-ukraine-aid-bill-00033719 ...The fact that the bill languished in Congress amid the fall of the crucial Ukrainian port city has irked lawmakers in both parties. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called it “repugnant” that Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has objected to swift passage of the measure for more than a week.
To delay the bill “for purely political motives,” Schumer said, “is to only strengthen Putin’s hand.”
Paul argues that the package raises questions of “unconstitutionality” as well as “affordability.” For days the Kentucky Republican demanded that the Senate amend the bill to designate a special federal watchdog to oversee how the $40 billion is spent.
“Isn’t there a more fiscally responsible way this could be done? What about taking the $40 billion from elsewhere in the budget?” Paul said this week.
Adopting Paul’s amendment would have sent the bill back to the House for another vote. And while Senate leaders brushed aside his proposal for a special watchdog, the bill as written would already force the Pentagon’s inspector general to review how the Defense Department spends the emergency funding and deliver a report to Congress. It also requires the Defense and State departments to keep tabs on the end use of weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine.
Aside from the power to transfer billions of dollars worth of weapons from U.S. troves, the package would provide another $6 billion to the Pentagon account for arming Ukraine’s military, as well as nearly $4 billion for military operations in Europe. The State Department would receive $4 billion for foreign military financing to help arm Ukraine and other NATO countries...
One thing that Congressional Democrats and Republicans are united on - spending money on the arming Ukraine. The Republicans are still heavily backed by LockMart and Boeing. - lots of nice money to make up for problems they are having in civil aerospace....
Why on gods green earth would you ever make it public you have won £180 million on the lottery and do a press conference?
Why on earth would you sue, in the law courts, an ex-friend who betrayed a confidence?
Most libel cases are ill thought out.
They are extremely well thought out - by the lawyers who purchase expensive houses and cars on the back of them.
EDIT: I am trying to remember the chap who, when asked how he could deal with such people, said that he that for £947 an hour, he could listen to anyone.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Indeed so. The one thing within his control is to keep up arming the Ukranians, and make sure the $33bn of promised US kit makes it to the front lines.
The latter point has little or nothing to do with Johnson.
Rand Paul has more influence - though it looks as though he's been squashed for the time being. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/19/senate-40-billion-ukraine-aid-bill-00033719 ...The fact that the bill languished in Congress amid the fall of the crucial Ukrainian port city has irked lawmakers in both parties. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called it “repugnant” that Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has objected to swift passage of the measure for more than a week.
To delay the bill “for purely political motives,” Schumer said, “is to only strengthen Putin’s hand.”
Paul argues that the package raises questions of “unconstitutionality” as well as “affordability.” For days the Kentucky Republican demanded that the Senate amend the bill to designate a special federal watchdog to oversee how the $40 billion is spent.
“Isn’t there a more fiscally responsible way this could be done? What about taking the $40 billion from elsewhere in the budget?” Paul said this week.
Adopting Paul’s amendment would have sent the bill back to the House for another vote. And while Senate leaders brushed aside his proposal for a special watchdog, the bill as written would already force the Pentagon’s inspector general to review how the Defense Department spends the emergency funding and deliver a report to Congress. It also requires the Defense and State departments to keep tabs on the end use of weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine.
Aside from the power to transfer billions of dollars worth of weapons from U.S. troves, the package would provide another $6 billion to the Pentagon account for arming Ukraine’s military, as well as nearly $4 billion for military operations in Europe. The State Department would receive $4 billion for foreign military financing to help arm Ukraine and other NATO countries...
One thing that Congressional Democrats and Republicans are united on - spending money on the arming Ukraine. The Republicans are still heavily backed by LockMart and Boeing. - lots of nice money to make up for problems they are having in civil aerospace....
Except, of course, that Rand Paul thinks that Ukraine is part of Russia, and he is a constant thorn in the side of getting aid to Ukraine.
I see that something has been done with the road from Walthamstow to Tottenham Hale, including "Rain Gardens" (= strip of planting). For the Waltham Forest Mini-Holland.
Has anyone experienced this, yet?
Personally I'm sure it's thought through or ambitious enough - forcing children and others to cycle alongside 17k vehicles a day with no segregation. Hmmm.
That looks positively luxurious compared with the cycle lanes in Edinburgh.
Some knob tried to overtake me on North Bridge this morning (ultra narrow, with roadworks) and blasted his horn at me when I wouldn't go into the gutter. Needless to say I brought the city to a standstill by doing 1 mph the rest of the way across.
Looks like you're having a great time. My day is office -> baby shift -> bed (If I'm lucky) at the moment
Got lots of hassle in my life at the moment. From family to work to the State of the Bloody World. If I focused on that I’d probably lurch into desperate anxiety
And yet, moment by moment, this is indeed fun. I just had a glass of cold wine in the mountaintop Vlach village, served from a metal jug, and I felt the brief passing shadow of pure happiness: like a beautiful but rare bird of prey: soaring, then gone
This post saves the reader the trouble of reading 'The Power of Now' and its 20 million spin offs. Thank you.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Indeed so. The one thing within his control is to keep up arming the Ukranians, and make sure the $33bn of promised US kit makes it to the front lines.
The latter point has little or nothing to do with Johnson.
Rand Paul has more influence - though it looks as though he's been squashed for the time being. https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/19/senate-40-billion-ukraine-aid-bill-00033719 ...The fact that the bill languished in Congress amid the fall of the crucial Ukrainian port city has irked lawmakers in both parties. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called it “repugnant” that Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has objected to swift passage of the measure for more than a week.
To delay the bill “for purely political motives,” Schumer said, “is to only strengthen Putin’s hand.”
Paul argues that the package raises questions of “unconstitutionality” as well as “affordability.” For days the Kentucky Republican demanded that the Senate amend the bill to designate a special federal watchdog to oversee how the $40 billion is spent.
“Isn’t there a more fiscally responsible way this could be done? What about taking the $40 billion from elsewhere in the budget?” Paul said this week.
Adopting Paul’s amendment would have sent the bill back to the House for another vote. And while Senate leaders brushed aside his proposal for a special watchdog, the bill as written would already force the Pentagon’s inspector general to review how the Defense Department spends the emergency funding and deliver a report to Congress. It also requires the Defense and State departments to keep tabs on the end use of weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine.
Aside from the power to transfer billions of dollars worth of weapons from U.S. troves, the package would provide another $6 billion to the Pentagon account for arming Ukraine’s military, as well as nearly $4 billion for military operations in Europe. The State Department would receive $4 billion for foreign military financing to help arm Ukraine and other NATO countries...
One thing that Congressional Democrats and Republicans are united on - spending money on the arming Ukraine. The Republicans are still heavily backed by LockMart and Boeing. - lots of nice money to make up for problems they are having in civil aerospace....
Except, of course, that Rand Paul thinks that Ukraine is part of Russia, and he is a constant thorn in the side of getting aid to Ukraine.
One can generally tell those who are persistent and persnickity rules followers, who may be annoying but have a point, and those who merely use the letter of the rules and procedural arcana as a cover to frustrate others and advance their own importance and agendas, where they show less adherence to such matters.
I see that something has been done with the road from Walthamstow to Tottenham Hale, including "Rain Gardens" (= strip of planting). For the Waltham Forest Mini-Holland.
Has anyone experienced this, yet?
Personally I'm sure it's thought through or ambitious enough - forcing children and others to cycle alongside 17k vehicles a day with no segregation. Hmmm.
That looks positively luxurious compared with the cycle lanes in Edinburgh.
Some knob tried to overtake me on North Bridge this morning (ultra narrow, with roadworks) and blasted his horn at me when I wouldn't go into the gutter. Needless to say I brought the city to a standstill by doing 1 mph the rest of the way across.
Good strategy.
It may do, but it's still got some dangerous features, and a lack of ambition.
And is many decades behind contemporary standards elsewhere.
The London cycling revolution has long had a problem with Not Invented Here.
Why on gods green earth would you ever make it public you have won £180 million on the lottery and do a press conference?
You have to to get the money, if you forget to tick the no publicity box I think.
Are Camelot that much of a bastard outfit that if you say please please I really want to do it, we are worried for our safety, they would still force you to do some sort of public appearance, all because you forgot to tick one box?
It's such an insane thing to do, to my thinking, I can't see why anyone would want to do it ... but others have provided other views.
I may, on reflection, be thinking of the football pools my granny did, or some more modern equivalent. There was certainly some sort of no publicity tickbox, in small print, in such things at one time.
Edit: but you may have a further point. These days it's computers which do all the work, so you can nail them on personal info legislation if they won't play ball.
Some people do keep quiet, but you have to consider the unusual circumstances and incentives. Camelot will be desperate for people to go public, because it gets more publicity for the win and sells more lottery tickets.
So the people who are handing you £180m are also telling you why it makes sense to go public with the win. I believe they also offer free financial advice if you agree to go public.
I can easily imagine feeling that all my troubles had ended on winning a jackpot, and not wanting to create trouble by disagreeing with the very kind people arranging for the payment of nearly two hundred million pounds.
There is probably a short story to be written where it turns out the people doing the press conference were paid a very handsome sum to do so by the real winners…
Edit to say: feel free to use this idea if you are a writer: a “story idea” credit to Fysics_teacher will be fine.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Maybe, but most Tory voters are retired, so the normal economic consequences don't apply to them.
The core economic threats to Tory voters are: a house price crash (though even here they would be less affected than younger home owners), and sustained inflation (which would erode the value of cash savings and annuities that aren't index-linked, but again they're relatively insulated from the worst effects by the state pension triple lock and index-linking on many occupational pensions).
If Johnson can promise to defend them from the tax-raising plans of Starmer, real or imagined, then the economic pain for the young... well, it's just a rite of passage. They survived real recessions back when people didn't have smartphones.
Drops in favourability once again for both Johnson and Starmer, but Starmer remains ahead of Johnson on the 'Best PM' metric for the 6th month in a row.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Maybe, but most Tory voters are retired, so the normal economic consequences don't apply to them.
The core economic threats to Tory voters are: a house price crash (though even here they would be less affected than younger home owners), and sustained inflation (which would erode the value of cash savings and annuities that aren't index-linked, but again they're relatively insulated from the worst effects by the state pension triple lock and index-linking on many occupational pensions).
If Johnson can promise to defend them from the tax-raising plans of Starmer, real or imagined, then the economic pain for the young... well, it's just a rite of passage. They survived real recessions back when people didn't have smartphones.
"most Tory voters are retired"
Is that really the case? It doesn't pass the sniff test to me...
I see that something has been done with the road from Walthamstow to Tottenham Hale, including "Rain Gardens" (= strip of planting). For the Waltham Forest Mini-Holland.
Has anyone experienced this, yet?
Personally I'm sure it's thought through or ambitious enough - forcing children and others to cycle alongside 17k vehicles a day with no segregation. Hmmm.
That looks positively luxurious compared with the cycle lanes in Edinburgh.
Some knob tried to overtake me on North Bridge this morning (ultra narrow, with roadworks) and blasted his horn at me when I wouldn't go into the gutter. Needless to say I brought the city to a standstill by doing 1 mph the rest of the way across.
And that's with the buses diverted.
Mind, the nearest I ever came to being run over in Edinburgh was on South Bridge - I was walking across under the Green Man with plenty of time to spare, and a Reclaimn the Streets type demo of about 4 dozen cyclists just came straignt at me without stopping, through the red light. I couldn't even get to the kerb and had to stand still in fear and terror of the feral pack If I'd been the city head of planning, that would have made me want to cancel every single cycle lane in Edinburgh.
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
Drops in favourability once again for both Johnson and Starmer, but Starmer remains ahead of Johnson on the 'Best PM' metric for the 6th month in a row.
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
The fact that Boris Johnson has put her in charge of anything tells you he is not fit for office
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
A major problem with consultations (ignoring the frequent number which are not genuine in being open to alternative views) is that they are not referendums of course, and you will often get one minority side much more motivated to respond, but neither can you just presume anyone who does not respond is in favour. Sheer numbers for and against is relevant, but may not be entirely persuasive, as reasoning is also relevant (but often not sought) and smaller numbers with a better argument may make sense to listen to more than a majority. But of course governments find that hard to say, and so the whole process is a bit of a mess.
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
A major problem with consultations (ignoring the frequent number which are not genuine in being open to alternative views) is that they are not referendums of course, and you will often get one minority side much more motivated to respond, but neither can you just presume anyone who does not respond is in favour. Sheer numbers for and against is relevant, but may not be entirely persuasive, as reasoning is also relevant (but often not sought) and smaller numbers with a better argument may make sense to listen to more than a majority. But of course governments find that hard to say, and so the whole process is a bit of a mess.
She asked to he wrong question. She should have gone with:
“Are you in favour of Chanel Four being ultimately under the control of Nadine Dorries?”
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
To be honest any voodoo "consultation" that comes up with 96% coming on one side of the debate should be considered about as useful as used toilet paper.
“The impact of poverty, and the impact of lack of opportunity for people, does lead to an increase in crime. There’s no two ways about that,” Andy Cooke
Except it really isn't as simple as that....when times are good and plenty of opportunities, you often find crime rises, because the majority have money, they get lots of new stuff, and so there is incentive for people to go nicking it. And say with drug use, people have money, they party, they want their coke, they fuels the gang fighting for the lucrative markets, etc.
We heard these claims around 2008 and early years of Coalition, with claims austerity would lead to poverty which leads to crime.
Property came has fallen in many areas of the Western world. Experts think that
- Cars are much less stealable. - The nature of personal possessions has changed - jewellery has pivoted to art rather than materials for most, expensive watches are less common etc. - The possessions that have some resale value are phone, laptops and some games consoles.
Not sure about cars being less easy to steal...also expensive watches are a massive market.
I agree about personal possessions having less value, but good example PS5, hard to get, people paying silly money for them, lots of incidents of people being robbed for them. When times are tough, people aren't paying 2x sticker price to get one, they are playing their PS4 instead.
Past 5 years we seen the same with big rise in collectibles likes sneakers, pokemon cards etc.
The days when you could take a car by playing with some wires are ending. Many will only start if you have a key with crypto in it matching the vehicle. Hence thieves targeting the keys.
The majority of homes now have very little of re-sale value. The commonest resalable thing in your house is probably the bikes, if any.
The result of all this, is that burglary is now done by gangs who do 20 houses a day - to try and get some money out of it.
Err, the most likely thing to be taken in a burglary is the car itself. Bonus points if you can resend the remote keycode and start the car without entering the house.
If you have a car where the door opens and the car starts on a button because you have a token in your pocket, be aware that that signal can be amplified from some way away.
Yup - which is why quite alot of burglaries were try and grab car keys in the hall. And that's it.
A few crap security systems apart (disable the stupid auto-unlock systems, FFS), an increasing percentage of cars won't run without the assigned keys.
Then the cutting-edge auto manufacturers decided that your phone could be the car key.
That's only a problem in you enable the stupid feature that unlocks your car automatically, when you are near it.
I think that article tells you everything you need to know when you read "Sultan Qasim Khan, a principal security consultant and researcher at security firm NCC Group,". No vested interests in that scaremongering article. No none. Yep, someone might hack my Tesla. Well someone might steal the keys for my other cars.
I see that something has been done with the road from Walthamstow to Tottenham Hale, including "Rain Gardens" (= strip of planting). For the Waltham Forest Mini-Holland.
Has anyone experienced this, yet?
Personally I'm sure it's thought through or ambitious enough - forcing children and others to cycle alongside 17k vehicles a day with no segregation. Hmmm.
That looks positively luxurious compared with the cycle lanes in Edinburgh.
Some knob tried to overtake me on North Bridge this morning (ultra narrow, with roadworks) and blasted his horn at me when I wouldn't go into the gutter. Needless to say I brought the city to a standstill by doing 1 mph the rest of the way across.
And that's with the buses diverted.
Mind, the nearest I ever came to being run over in Edinburgh was on South Bridge - I was walking across under the Green Man with plenty of time to spare, and a Reclaimn the Streets type demo of about 4 dozen cyclists just came straignt at me without stopping, through the red light. I couldn't even get to the kerb and had to stand still in fear and terror of the feral pack If I'd been the city head of planning, that would have made me want to cancel every single cycle lane in Edinburgh.
BTW. I hear that the Edinburgh Tram way is getting into its stride now.
Good news, as long as the bike tyres stay out of the tramlines.
'We have no need to set up an ‘English Parliament’ in some shed in Milton Keynes, designed by one of those Blairite architects, all poles, points and projections with funny wooden bits glued on to relieve the boredom.
The Parliament at Westminster is English already, since the days of Simon de Montfort, and has simply given hospitality to others during the long adventure of the Union. By becoming wholly English again, it could recover much of its force and its purpose.'
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
The fact that Boris Johnson has put her in charge of anything tells you he is not fit for office
Yes, he'd really disguised that up to her appointment.
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
To be honest any voodoo "consultation" that comes up with 96% coming on one side of the debate should be considered about as useful as used toilet paper.
From "I'm a Lib Dem, me" to gushing Borgasm because Big Dog has only be fined once is a hell of an arc.
it’s not Borgasm, it’s just very funny! Listen.
“ It had been thought that Johnson and his wife were quite likely to be fined over at least one further event – the gathering held in the Downing Street flat on the night Dominic Cummings quit. Loud Abba music was heard coming from the flat that night, and Carrie Johnson (who was delighted to see Cummings go) was said to be celebrating with friends who work as government advisers. Sources have claimed that they were there for a work meeting, and that the PM was interviewing one of the attendees about a potential job. “
Labour have now lost 2 leaders in Milliband and Starmer, and two elections, 2015 and 2024, due to mishaps with takeaway food! Is that not amazing?
Macron is toast. I’m on Melenchon at 80 and still confident of him, because he is just simply a smarter more agile politician than Le Pen. This is how it plays out. Last first round polls show nothing in it between Le Pen and Melenchon. Macron’s second round defeat is France “Brexit” moment. Every country is going to have some sort of we are the people and we want the drawbridge up to be great again, moment.
Good luck guessing even the date of the next election, let alone its result. You couldn't even spot the winner of the French election a week out when the incumbent was leading in the polls and had better approval ratings 🤷
That’s just nasty.
May be she was wrong on this occasion, but betting is about value not spotting the winner.!
Last time I looked French Elections were on a fixed timetable
The last 2 were:
23 April and 7 May 2017 10 and 24 April 2022
So I'd speculate around the end of April 2027.
In the meantime Mr Macron will continue his performing seal act, whilst portraying that the approx. half of EU countries who do not share his new empire vision are just a couple of disrupters in the way of history.
Personally, I think we may get a 6th Republic before long.
Sunday June 12th 2022, run off on 19th. Check the polling, it’s interesting
Why on gods green earth would you ever make it public you have won £180 million on the lottery and do a press conference?
Why on earth would you sue, in the law courts, an ex-friend who betrayed a confidence?
Most libel cases are ill thought out.
They are extremely well thought out - by the lawyers who purchase expensive houses and cars on the back of them.
EDIT: I am trying to remember the chap who, when asked how he could deal with such people, said that he that for £947 an hour, he could listen to anyone.
Non-appearance of Jack Monroe libel case due Real Soon Now, I expect.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
I see that something has been done with the road from Walthamstow to Tottenham Hale, including "Rain Gardens" (= strip of planting). For the Waltham Forest Mini-Holland.
Has anyone experienced this, yet?
Personally I'm sure it's thought through or ambitious enough - forcing children and others to cycle alongside 17k vehicles a day with no segregation. Hmmm.
That looks positively luxurious compared with the cycle lanes in Edinburgh.
Some knob tried to overtake me on North Bridge this morning (ultra narrow, with roadworks) and blasted his horn at me when I wouldn't go into the gutter. Needless to say I brought the city to a standstill by doing 1 mph the rest of the way across.
And that's with the buses diverted.
Mind, the nearest I ever came to being run over in Edinburgh was on South Bridge - I was walking across under the Green Man with plenty of time to spare, and a Reclaimn the Streets type demo of about 4 dozen cyclists just came straignt at me without stopping, through the red light. I couldn't even get to the kerb and had to stand still in fear and terror of the feral pack If I'd been the city head of planning, that would have made me want to cancel every single cycle lane in Edinburgh.
BTW. I hear that the Edinburgh Tram way is getting into its stride now.
Good news, as long as the bike tyres stay out of the tramlines.
Been running for a long time. You must mean the much delayed extension down to and through Leith?
'We have no need to set up an ‘English Parliament’ in some shed in Milton Keynes, designed by one of those Blairite architects, all poles, points and projections with funny wooden bits glued on to relieve the boredom.
The Parliament at Westminster is English already, since the days of Simon de Montfort, and has simply given hospitality to others during the long adventure of the Union. By becoming wholly English again, it could recover much of its force and its purpose.'
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Maybe, but most Tory voters are retired, so the normal economic consequences don't apply to them.
The core economic threats to Tory voters are: a house price crash (though even here they would be less affected than younger home owners), and sustained inflation (which would erode the value of cash savings and annuities that aren't index-linked, but again they're relatively insulated from the worst effects by the state pension triple lock and index-linking on many occupational pensions).
If Johnson can promise to defend them from the tax-raising plans of Starmer, real or imagined, then the economic pain for the young... well, it's just a rite of passage. They survived real recessions back when people didn't have smartphones.
"most Tory voters are retired"
Is that really the case? It doesn't pass the sniff test to me...
Ah, I see what I've done there. I've confused most retired people are Tory voters with most Tory voters are retired people.
Still. I wonder how close it is?
Google says there were 12.3 million people aged 65+ at the time of the last general election. We'll use that age group as a proxy for "retired".
Ipsos MORI found that 64% of the 65+ age group voted Tory, and that turnout in this age group was 74%.
This gives 5.8 million retired votes for the Tories, out of their 14 million total votes. Not a majority. Nearly 42%, though, so getting closer.
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Maybe, but most Tory voters are retired, so the normal economic consequences don't apply to them.
The core economic threats to Tory voters are: a house price crash (though even here they would be less affected than younger home owners), and sustained inflation (which would erode the value of cash savings and annuities that aren't index-linked, but again they're relatively insulated from the worst effects by the state pension triple lock and index-linking on many occupational pensions).
If Johnson can promise to defend them from the tax-raising plans of Starmer, real or imagined, then the economic pain for the young... well, it's just a rite of passage. They survived real recessions back when people didn't have smartphones.
"most Tory voters are retired"
Is that really the case? It doesn't pass the sniff test to me...
It's not the case: most retirees (who vote) vote Tory, but it is not the case that more than 50% of the Conservative vote is from retirees. For a start, there are only about 12 million people over the age of 65 in the UK. If we assume that 8 million of them vote (not all will be British citizens, of course, and turnout of the Brits for retirees was in the low 70s), and that 60% of them went Conservative, then you get 4.8m Conservative votes. Which is barely more than a third of Mr Johnson's 14m votes.
You would have to assume that more than 75% of pensioners voted Conservative to get to to half of all Conservative votes.
northern_monkey how to create a 🦄 in 3 easy steps.
Step 1: Leave Single Market Step 2: Don't enforce border in Irish Sea Step 3: Don't enforce land border
Voila: 🦄 created. Move on.
So simple, isn't it? We should get you on the Israel/Palestine question pronto. Then wider world peace.
This will probably be an unpopular opinion but Ariel Sharon relatively resolved the Israel/Palestine question nearly twenty years ago by building a wall that terrorists struggled to get through. Unilateral action that helped end the second intifada in 2005. Not simple, but it worked, despite lots of outrage at the time. Its a shame that Sharon suffered that stroke as he was a far better statesman than Netanyahu.
Sometimes creating facts on the ground works, even if the other side is pissed off about it. Just like Israel creating the wall to end the Intifada, we can create facts on the ground here.
We have left the Single Market, that is already done. If we refuse to enforce a border in the Irish Sea nobody else has the jurisdiction or ability to do so. If we refuse to enforce a land border, nobody else has the willingness to do so. Therefore it is entirely within the UK's remit if we so choose to create your so-called 🦄 whether other people like it or not.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
Because *obviously* the best long term way to deal with bullies is to give them exactly what they want.
northern_monkey how to create a 🦄 in 3 easy steps.
Step 1: Leave Single Market Step 2: Don't enforce border in Irish Sea Step 3: Don't enforce land border
Voila: 🦄 created. Move on.
So simple, isn't it? We should get you on the Israel/Palestine question pronto. Then wider world peace.
This will probably be an unpopular opinion but Ariel Sharon relatively resolved the Israel/Palestine question nearly twenty years ago by building a wall that terrorists struggled to get through. Unilateral action that helped end the second intifada in 2005. Not simple, but it worked, despite lots of outrage at the time. Its a shame that Sharon suffered that stroke as he was a far better statesman than Netanyahu.
Sometimes creating facts on the ground works, even if the other side is pissed off about it. Just like Israel creating the wall to end the Intifada, we can create facts on the ground here.
We have left the Single Market, that is already done. If we refuse to enforce a border in the Irish Sea nobody else has the jurisdiction or ability to do so. If we refuse to enforce a land border, nobody else has the willingness to do so. Therefore it is entirely within the UK's remit if we so choose to create your so-called 🦄 whether other people like it or not.
Mr. Putin has discovered that the "fuck you world" has an appeal but doesn't always turn out as well as he simplistically believed
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
'We have no need to set up an ‘English Parliament’ in some shed in Milton Keynes, designed by one of those Blairite architects, all poles, points and projections with funny wooden bits glued on to relieve the boredom.
The Parliament at Westminster is English already, since the days of Simon de Montfort, and has simply given hospitality to others during the long adventure of the Union. By becoming wholly English again, it could recover much of its force and its purpose.'
Hell has frozen over, I agree with Hitchens. Well sort of, I agree that English independence is a good idea but I don't for one second think "I reckon that any party that puts an English secession from the UK in its general election manifesto will win a smashing majority."
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
To be honest any voodoo "consultation" that comes up with 96% coming on one side of the debate should be considered about as useful as used toilet paper.
Even North Korea would blush at 96% approval for the Glorious Leader's ideas on Channel 4....
'We have no need to set up an ‘English Parliament’ in some shed in Milton Keynes, designed by one of those Blairite architects, all poles, points and projections with funny wooden bits glued on to relieve the boredom.
The Parliament at Westminster is English already, since the days of Simon de Montfort, and has simply given hospitality to others during the long adventure of the Union. By becoming wholly English again, it could recover much of its force and its purpose.'
Hell has frozen over, I agree with Hitchens. Well sort of, I agree that English independence is a good idea but I don't for one second think "I reckon that any party that puts an English secession from the UK in its general election manifesto will win a smashing majority."
The English Democrats have long advocated English Independence, or at least an English Parliament but only got 1,987 votes in England at the 2019 general election
Savanta one of the oddest in the pack how their Green scores so low and their Labour so high and gap between main parties so wide.
Or for odd you could use most accurate?
It's within a couple % of everything released recently. It's not remotely odd.
At first glance you a right, further investigation you are wrong, because they are consistently doing this - low green high labour, in stark relation to everybody else. Look for Trend from each pollster first, and then in the trend from other pollsters for change of trend.
For example, where is Mays Kantor? If it shows a comparatively small Lab lead of just 4, it’s a shocker for the Tories. Whilst on your broad brush logic it’s within % Of everybody else.
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
northern_monkey how to create a 🦄 in 3 easy steps.
Step 1: Leave Single Market Step 2: Don't enforce border in Irish Sea Step 3: Don't enforce land border
Voila: 🦄 created. Move on.
So simple, isn't it? We should get you on the Israel/Palestine question pronto. Then wider world peace.
This will probably be an unpopular opinion but Ariel Sharon relatively resolved the Israel/Palestine question nearly twenty years ago by building a wall that terrorists struggled to get through. Unilateral action that helped end the second intifada in 2005. Not simple, but it worked, despite lots of outrage at the time. Its a shame that Sharon suffered that stroke as he was a far better statesman than Netanyahu.
Sometimes creating facts on the ground works, even if the other side is pissed off about it. Just like Israel creating the wall to end the Intifada, we can create facts on the ground here.
We have left the Single Market, that is already done. If we refuse to enforce a border in the Irish Sea nobody else has the jurisdiction or ability to do so. If we refuse to enforce a land border, nobody else has the willingness to do so. Therefore it is entirely within the UK's remit if we so choose to create your so-called 🦄 whether other people like it or not.
Mr. Putin has discovered that the "fuck you world" has an appeal but doesn't always turn out as well as he simplistically believed
The problem is Mr Putin was trying to change facts on the ground within someone else's borders and the someone else fought back.
We only need to deal within our own borders. We just need to not have a border in the Irish Sea, and not impose a land border in Ireland, we don't need to interfere in anyone else's borders for what I am proposing. The EU is like Putin in this scenario in that they've tried to meddle in someone else's territory and unsurprisingly the people in the external territory are biting back.
The EU can do whatever they please within their own territory, that is their prerogative, and it is our prerogative to do what we please within our own territory. That's called sovereignty, you might wish to familiarise yourself with the concept as it seems alien to you.
“The impact of poverty, and the impact of lack of opportunity for people, does lead to an increase in crime. There’s no two ways about that,” Andy Cooke
Except it really isn't as simple as that....when times are good and plenty of opportunities, you often find crime rises, because the majority have money, they get lots of new stuff, and so there is incentive for people to go nicking it. And say with drug use, people have money, they party, they want their coke, they fuels the gang fighting for the lucrative markets, etc.
We heard these claims around 2008 and early years of Coalition, with claims austerity would lead to poverty which leads to crime.
Property came has fallen in many areas of the Western world. Experts think that
- Cars are much less stealable. - The nature of personal possessions has changed - jewellery has pivoted to art rather than materials for most, expensive watches are less common etc. - The possessions that have some resale value are phone, laptops and some games consoles.
Not sure about cars being less easy to steal...also expensive watches are a massive market.
I agree about personal possessions having less value, but good example PS5, hard to get, people paying silly money for them, lots of incidents of people being robbed for them. When times are tough, people aren't paying 2x sticker price to get one, they are playing their PS4 instead.
Past 5 years we seen the same with big rise in collectibles likes sneakers, pokemon cards etc.
The days when you could take a car by playing with some wires are ending. Many will only start if you have a key with crypto in it matching the vehicle. Hence thieves targeting the keys.
The majority of homes now have very little of re-sale value. The commonest resalable thing in your house is probably the bikes, if any.
The result of all this, is that burglary is now done by gangs who do 20 houses a day - to try and get some money out of it.
Err, the most likely thing to be taken in a burglary is the car itself. Bonus points if you can resend the remote keycode and start the car without entering the house.
If you have a car where the door opens and the car starts on a button because you have a token in your pocket, be aware that that signal can be amplified from some way away.
Yup - which is why quite alot of burglaries were try and grab car keys in the hall. And that's it.
A few crap security systems apart (disable the stupid auto-unlock systems, FFS), an increasing percentage of cars won't run without the assigned keys.
Then the cutting-edge auto manufacturers decided that your phone could be the car key.
That's only a problem in you enable the stupid feature that unlocks your car automatically, when you are near it.
I think that article tells you everything you need to know when you read "Sultan Qasim Khan, a principal security consultant and researcher at security firm NCC Group,". No vested interests in that scaremongering article. No none. Yep, someone might hack my Tesla. Well someone might steal the keys for my other cars.
No - it is a serious, legitimate issue.
The "security" systems in question break a major rule of cryptography. That if someone has the cipher machine, the keys and some example messages, they should be no closer to breaking the system than if they had nothing. An intercepted message today should get you nothing tomorrow.
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
'We have no need to set up an ‘English Parliament’ in some shed in Milton Keynes, designed by one of those Blairite architects, all poles, points and projections with funny wooden bits glued on to relieve the boredom.
The Parliament at Westminster is English already, since the days of Simon de Montfort, and has simply given hospitality to others during the long adventure of the Union. By becoming wholly English again, it could recover much of its force and its purpose.'
Hell has frozen over, I agree with Hitchens. Well sort of, I agree that English independence is a good idea but I don't for one second think "I reckon that any party that puts an English secession from the UK in its general election manifesto will win a smashing majority."
Dunno. There's a lot of English exceptionalism out there.....
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
No chance
We have full employment, discretionary spending is still happpening big time, house prices continue upwards.
Money needs to be taken out of the economy.
Ohhhhh let the battle commence. Surely there needs to be help on energy costs to households and businesses to limit contraction, and limit long term political damage to governing party?
Apparently the cost to the MET has been 460,000 pounds.
Money NOT well spent.
And not over yet either. 😒
There’s a whole new angle on this now, and it’s not good if you have already had enough of Partygate. The acting deputy commissioner of the Met Police said "strong evidence" was needed to issue partygate fines. So it’s photographic evidence essentially? Is that the strongest evidence they could use here? Because What was thought a low bar, ambushed by cake, was in the end the one with most strongest evidence - photo of Boris and Rishi side by side with beer taken by official photographer - there isn’t strong evidence for all other ones, the police are saying this to justify the end of the investigation?
So it’s not over then. We can’t move on. Each time a “new photo” the police hadn’t considered emerges, the investigation is reopened - just like the clamour to get the Starmer one reopened because of significant new evidence.
Horrendous for the police, if new photos and significant evidence keep popping up out the woodwork, you would agree? Rather than over, we may only have just begun 😟
Nb And actually, the police line, strong evidence was needed to issue fine is fantastic news for Starmer and Labour - although there is video footage of him holding a bottle, don’t forget the rules were different at that time, there has to be strong evidence he wasn’t working at same time as holding a bottle. If there’s not enough evidence Boris was conducting a job interview in a flat with a raucous “dingdong Dom is gone” party going on, Starmer’s safe.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
Big news on Whitehall: the Cabinet Office is splitting…
Economic & Domestic Affairs and National Security Secretariats, Joint Intelligence Organisation and other units reporting directly to cab sec to be led by No 10 permanent secretary Samantha Jones - a proper dept for the PM https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1527318705188638721
Savanta one of the oddest in the pack how their Green scores so low and their Labour so high and gap between main parties so wide.
Or for odd you could use most accurate?
It's within a couple % of everything released recently. It's not remotely odd.
At first glance you a right, further investigation you are wrong, because they are consistently doing this - low green high labour, in stark relation to everybody else. Look for Trend from each pollster first, and then in the trend from other pollsters for change of trend.
For example, where is Mays Kantor? If it shows a comparatively small Lab lead of just 4, it’s a shocker for the Tories. Whilst on your broad brush logic it’s within % Of everybody else.
Hope this helps 🙂
That's simply not the case. They are lower end for green, not lowest (survation have tended to be lower for example), they are not the highest Labour share generally, they are perhaps or even probably above the average but again, nothing unusual. And their gap is not out of line with the others. There is no stark difference being consistently shown. The pollsters are actually unusually tight at the moment, with very occasional blips like that 1% yougov.
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
I really have no idea
You say they are dealing with it idiotically, what then do you want them To do, if it’s not have a budget to provide means of helping, cutting taxes, raising social hand out allowances, cutting tariffs on food imports, giving pensioners four figure fuel payment’s, extending energy cap to those who use oil etc?
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
and if Starmer gets fined then I think a few people might need to get their sides re-stitched.
Not really, if he resigns and is replaced by someone equivalent or better that will look pretty terrible for your hero.
Indeed. Johnson staying and Starmer going is a win/win for Labour.
Not in the short term as labour pull themselves apart in a leadership battle whilst the country suffers with COL. 'No time for your permanent internecine wars' The new leader may then not have enough time before the next GE to convince.
Savanta one of the oddest in the pack how their Green scores so low and their Labour so high and gap between main parties so wide.
Or for odd you could use most accurate?
It's within a couple % of everything released recently. It's not remotely odd.
At first glance you a right, further investigation you are wrong, because they are consistently doing this - low green high labour, in stark relation to everybody else. Look for Trend from each pollster first, and then in the trend from other pollsters for change of trend.
For example, where is Mays Kantor? If it shows a comparatively small Lab lead of just 4, it’s a shocker for the Tories. Whilst on your broad brush logic it’s within % Of everybody else.
Hope this helps 🙂
That's simply not the case. They are lower end for green, not lowest (survation have tended to be lower for example), they are not the highest Labour share generally, they are perhaps or even probably above the average but again, nothing unusual. And their gap is not out of line with the others. There is no stark difference being consistently shown. The pollsters are actually unusually tight at the moment, with very occasional blips like that 1% yougov.
I also hope this helps.
Ha ha ha. You are clearly saying a green share of 3 from one pollster and a green share of 8 from another are both correct simultaneously.
So are you agreeing a May Kantor of 4% Lab lead or more is a shocker for the Tories?
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Maybe, but most Tory voters are retired, so the normal economic consequences don't apply to them.
The core economic threats to Tory voters are: a house price crash (though even here they would be less affected than younger home owners), and sustained inflation (which would erode the value of cash savings and annuities that aren't index-linked, but again they're relatively insulated from the worst effects by the state pension triple lock and index-linking on many occupational pensions).
If Johnson can promise to defend them from the tax-raising plans of Starmer, real or imagined, then the economic pain for the young... well, it's just a rite of passage. They survived real recessions back when people didn't have smartphones.
"most Tory voters are retired"
Is that really the case? It doesn't pass the sniff test to me...
and if Starmer gets fined then I think a few people might need to get their sides re-stitched.
Not really, if he resigns and is replaced by someone equivalent or better that will look pretty terrible for your hero.
Indeed. Johnson staying and Starmer going is a win/win for Labour.
Not in the short term as labour pull themselves apart in a leadership battle whilst the country suffers with COL. 'No time for your permanent internecine wars' The new leader may then not have enough time before the next GE to convince.
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
I really have no idea
You say they are dealing with it idiotically, what then do you want them To do, if it’s not have a budget to provide means of helping, cutting taxes, raising social hand out allowances, cutting tariffs on food imports, giving pensioners four figure fuel payment’s, extending energy cap to those who use oil etc?
Logically yes but their is an absence of logic throughout HMG
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
The fact that Boris Johnson has put her in charge of anything tells you he is not fit for office
Nigel Foreman would have praised Nadine when she was a nurse. So it's not about the person but the role.
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
No chance
We have full employment, discretionary spending is still happpening big time, house prices continue upwards.
Money needs to be taken out of the economy.
Ohhhhh let the battle commence. Surely there needs to be help on energy costs to households and businesses to limit contraction, and limit long term political damage to governing party?
Where is the money coming from? (Please answer without using the word "borrowing".)
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
No chance
We have full employment, discretionary spending is still happpening big time, house prices continue upwards.
Money needs to be taken out of the economy.
Ohhhhh let the battle commence. Surely there needs to be help on energy costs to households and businesses to limit contraction, and limit long term political damage to governing party?
Where is the money coming from? (Please answer without using the word "borrowing".)
Big news on Whitehall: the Cabinet Office is splitting…
Economic & Domestic Affairs and National Security Secretariats, Joint Intelligence Organisation and other units reporting directly to cab sec to be led by No 10 permanent secretary Samantha Jones - a proper dept for the PM https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1527318705188638721
The Number 10 power grab continues. Hail to the Chief — President Boris.
and if Starmer gets fined then I think a few people might need to get their sides re-stitched.
Not really, if he resigns and is replaced by someone equivalent or better that will look pretty terrible for your hero.
You're such a Pollyanna aren't you. Everything that happens is good news for your view. You're no different to Sturgeon etc saying every bit of news is good news for Scottish Independence.
Its funny that you were singing Starmer's praises and saying I was a terrible judge of character for not being impressed with Starmer, but now you reckon that Starmer going would be terrible news for Johnson. That you don't even click on how strange that is, is even more amusing than if Starmer has to go for such a stupid unforced error.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Hmm, like the British didn't win the Battle of Britain and it was all the Americans who did?
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Hmm, like the British didn't win the Battle of Britain and it was all the Americans who did?
It was the Americans who provided the supplies and aid to help win WW2.
Though I doubt Putin will allow a Ukranian outright victory, otherwise he knows his Presidency is over if they force the Russians out of the country completely
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
No chance
We have full employment, discretionary spending is still happpening big time, house prices continue upwards.
Money needs to be taken out of the economy.
Ohhhhh let the battle commence. Surely there needs to be help on energy costs to households and businesses to limit contraction, and limit long term political damage to governing party?
Where is the money coming from? (Please answer without using the word "borrowing".)
It’s very easy to answer. There is more than £20B available not touched in the last budget 2 months ago. You can also pause planned spending, Which if you take a look, the government has already been doing for some weeks now.
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Hmm, like the British didn't win the Battle of Britain and it was all the Americans who did?
I think I've seen this movie.
Any Holywood WWII movie made in the past 77 years.
Savanta one of the oddest in the pack how their Green scores so low and their Labour so high and gap between main parties so wide.
Or for odd you could use most accurate?
It's within a couple % of everything released recently. It's not remotely odd.
At first glance you a right, further investigation you are wrong, because they are consistently doing this - low green high labour, in stark relation to everybody else. Look for Trend from each pollster first, and then in the trend from other pollsters for change of trend.
For example, where is Mays Kantor? If it shows a comparatively small Lab lead of just 4, it’s a shocker for the Tories. Whilst on your broad brush logic it’s within % Of everybody else.
Hope this helps 🙂
That's simply not the case. They are lower end for green, not lowest (survation have tended to be lower for example), they are not the highest Labour share generally, they are perhaps or even probably above the average but again, nothing unusual. And their gap is not out of line with the others. There is no stark difference being consistently shown. The pollsters are actually unusually tight at the moment, with very occasional blips like that 1% yougov.
I also hope this helps.
Ha ha ha. You are clearly saying a green share of 3 from one pollster and a green share of 8 from another are both correct simultaneously.
So are you agreeing a May Kantor of 4% Lab lead or more is a shocker for the Tories?
Nobody is 'correct' there is nothing to judge it on, there is no GE to refer against. Polls are a snapshot. And for the record no 'current' poll has the greens on 8 (this one has them on 4 not 3) No, I'm not. I don't judge things on movement from one poll of 1000 or so people to the next, that's what people should don't understand psychology do on twitter and get terribly excited by it. Polls offer hints only on direction of travel etc. Your initial assertion that ComRes are starkly different to everyone else on Green score, Lab score and gap is simply incorrect. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
and if Starmer gets fined then I think a few people might need to get their sides re-stitched.
Not really, if he resigns and is replaced by someone equivalent or better that will look pretty terrible for your hero.
Indeed. Johnson staying and Starmer going is a win/win for Labour.
Not in the short term as labour pull themselves apart in a leadership battle whilst the country suffers with COL. 'No time for your permanent internecine wars' The new leader may then not have enough time before the next GE to convince.
They've got two years until the next GE. Unless the far left come back (hint- they won't be given a chance to), Labour will be fine.
Starmer has done what he was needed for- purge the left and create space for a next generation PM in waiting to emerge. The plan was that was a five year job, he's done it in two. Well done him. If he goes, it will be (I hope) with thanks from a grateful nation.
Meanwhile Johnson may have been largely cleared by the Met, but he hasn't been cleansed by them. Let the leaking of photos to the Sunday papers commence.
and if Starmer gets fined then I think a few people might need to get their sides re-stitched.
Not really, if he resigns and is replaced by someone equivalent or better that will look pretty terrible for your hero.
Indeed. Johnson staying and Starmer going is a win/win for Labour.
Not in the short term as labour pull themselves apart in a leadership battle whilst the country suffers with COL. 'No time for your permanent internecine wars' The new leader may then not have enough time before the next GE to convince.
I agree. And well put.
Agreement in the face of other disagreement is part of peebees fun
I believe the idiotic way HMG are dealing (or not dealing) with the cost of living crisis is becoming far more toxic then partygate and unless they step up to the plate quickly they will have scored an own goal of immense consequences to their electoral hopes
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
There will be a crisis budget before end of June, won’t there?
I really have no idea
You say they are dealing with it idiotically, what then do you want them To do, if it’s not have a budget to provide means of helping, cutting taxes, raising social hand out allowances, cutting tariffs on food imports, giving pensioners four figure fuel payment’s, extending energy cap to those who use oil etc?
Logically yes but their is an absence of logic throughout HMG
To be fair, you said a few days ago, the last budget sat on money to wait and see how it develops, so was sensible in that (there was pressure from his own side to touch the money, and we expect a Lab government would have splashed the cash two months ago, if anything feeding inflation).
With twin issues of inflation and stagnant growth, the measures to tackle inflation can hurt growth, so being cautious and careful how to react to inflation spike is very sensible.
But it come to a point now there’s so many good ideas out there (I keep posting them) how to help the most hurting groups, it seems great political idea to call a budget and implement them. I would.
Savanta one of the oddest in the pack how their Green scores so low and their Labour so high and gap between main parties so wide.
Or for odd you could use most accurate?
It's within a couple % of everything released recently. It's not remotely odd.
At first glance you a right, further investigation you are wrong, because they are consistently doing this - low green high labour, in stark relation to everybody else. Look for Trend from each pollster first, and then in the trend from other pollsters for change of trend.
For example, where is Mays Kantor? If it shows a comparatively small Lab lead of just 4, it’s a shocker for the Tories. Whilst on your broad brush logic it’s within % Of everybody else.
Hope this helps 🙂
That's simply not the case. They are lower end for green, not lowest (survation have tended to be lower for example), they are not the highest Labour share generally, they are perhaps or even probably above the average but again, nothing unusual. And their gap is not out of line with the others. There is no stark difference being consistently shown. The pollsters are actually unusually tight at the moment, with very occasional blips like that 1% yougov.
I also hope this helps.
Ha ha ha. You are clearly saying a green share of 3 from one pollster and a green share of 8 from another are both correct simultaneously.
So are you agreeing a May Kantor of 4% Lab lead or more is a shocker for the Tories?
Nobody is 'correct' there is nothing to judge it on, there is no GE to refer against. Polls are a snapshot. And for the record no 'current' poll has the greens on 8 (this one has them on 4 not 3) No, I'm not. I don't judge things on movement from one poll of 1000 or so people to the next, that's what people should don't understand psychology do on twitter and get terribly excited by it. Polls offer hints only on direction of travel etc. Your initial assertion that ComRes are starkly different to everyone else on Green score, Lab score and gap is simply incorrect. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
and if Starmer gets fined then I think a few people might need to get their sides re-stitched.
Not really, if he resigns and is replaced by someone equivalent or better that will look pretty terrible for your hero.
Indeed. Johnson staying and Starmer going is a win/win for Labour.
Not in the short term as labour pull themselves apart in a leadership battle whilst the country suffers with COL. 'No time for your permanent internecine wars' The new leader may then not have enough time before the next GE to convince.
They've got two years until the next GE. Unless the far left come back (hint- they won't be given a chance to), Labour will be fine.
Starmer has done what he was needed for- purge the left and create space for a next generation PM in waiting to emerge. The plan was that was a five year job, he's done it in two. Well done him. If he goes, it will be (I hope) with thanks from a grateful nation.
Meanwhile Johnson may have been largely cleared by the Met, but he hasn't been cleansed by them. Let the leaking of photos to the Sunday papers commence.
However if, as I suspect, labour lose support short term from a leader resigning and infighting for a leadership contest and the polling resets to a more advantageous position, then cut and run before new person can bed in becomes more likely
and if Starmer gets fined then I think a few people might need to get their sides re-stitched.
Not really, if he resigns and is replaced by someone equivalent or better that will look pretty terrible for your hero.
No guarantee of that, he might get replaced by someone worse.
Though I doubt he will be fined nor go
Someone worse would be an achievement. Even for the Labour Party.
Starmer is the best leader Labour have had since Blair, the only alternative leader who might do better is Streeting but no guarantee he gets it, most of the others in Parliament would do worse
I’ll say it again. I think this site routinely underestimates the chances of Boris winning a majority at the next election. It’s not a certain (depends how far down the shitter of inflation the economy goes before correcting) but I think it’s more likely than not.
I think Boris Johnson's chances are almost entirely in the hands of the Russian leadership and the Ukrainian people.
If Putin falls, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, and the oil and gas starts flowing again, the cost of living crisis will rapidly dissipate, and Boris will be a hero. In this scenario, I agree completely that Boris is highly likely to be reelected.
On the other hand, if the conflict drags on, people's utility bills rise sharply, cutting disposable spending, and pushing the UK into a recession, then I suspect he will be lucky to avoid a drubbing.
Just to follow up on this one, it's the second order effects that are the killer.
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Hopefully those consequences will fall politically on those who are prosecuting this war with not a shred of concern for the British economy or public.
You mean Putin? 🤔
I don't like Boris Johnson, but I could forgive him a triumphal party conference in the autumn if it followed a Ukrainian victory.
It would be Boris wot won it then, not the geriatric Biden or the too hesitant of offending Putin Macron and Scholz
Hmm, like the British didn't win the Battle of Britain and it was all the Americans who did?
It was the Americans who provided the supplies and aid to help win WW2.
Though I doubt Putin will allow a Ukranian outright victory, otherwise he knows his Presidency is over if they force the Russians out of the country completely
YOu were saying that Mr JOhnson would have "won it", referring to the Ukraine-Russian war.
Like the Americans in 1939-1940. So Mr JOhnson will be resorting to Hollywood levels of historical scholarship?
Comments
Rand Paul has more influence - though it looks as though he's been squashed for the time being.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/19/senate-40-billion-ukraine-aid-bill-00033719
...The fact that the bill languished in Congress amid the fall of the crucial Ukrainian port city has irked lawmakers in both parties. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer called it “repugnant” that Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) has objected to swift passage of the measure for more than a week.
To delay the bill “for purely political motives,” Schumer said, “is to only strengthen Putin’s hand.”
Paul argues that the package raises questions of “unconstitutionality” as well as “affordability.” For days the Kentucky Republican demanded that the Senate amend the bill to designate a special federal watchdog to oversee how the $40 billion is spent.
“Isn’t there a more fiscally responsible way this could be done? What about taking the $40 billion from elsewhere in the budget?” Paul said this week.
Adopting Paul’s amendment would have sent the bill back to the House for another vote. And while Senate leaders brushed aside his proposal for a special watchdog, the bill as written would already force the Pentagon’s inspector general to review how the Defense Department spends the emergency funding and deliver a report to Congress. It also requires the Defense and State departments to keep tabs on the end use of weapons and equipment sent to Ukraine.
Aside from the power to transfer billions of dollars worth of weapons from U.S. troves, the package would provide another $6 billion to the Pentagon account for arming Ukraine’s military, as well as nearly $4 billion for military operations in Europe. The State Department would receive $4 billion for foreign military financing to help arm Ukraine and other NATO countries...
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-targets-russian-airlines-with-new-sanctions
This seems confirmed by Savanta in this tweet where partygate is nowhere to be seen
https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1527300862636199937?t=WSdQDeIOyY_MwAkHUxmCrQ&s=19
I see that something has been done with the road from Walthamstow to Tottenham Hale, including "Rain Gardens" (= strip of planting). For the Waltham Forest Mini-Holland.
Has anyone experienced this, yet?
Personally I'm sure it's thought through or ambitious enough - forcing children and others to cycle alongside 17k vehicles a day with no segregation. Hmmm.
https://twitter.com/MeristemDesign/status/1526935367479336962
Right now, people are secure in their jobs, with record vacancies. Rising utility bills (for now) are merely an annoyance that necessitates some lifestyle changes. Maybe go out a little less; or wait on the purchase of that PS5; or choose Tesco Value instead of Finest.
People react to lower disposable income by maybe dipping into their savings a bit, and by spending a little less.
That lower spending is the problem, because it means Joes' Diner, which only barely survived Covid, is now getting less traffic in through the door. And that monthly rent isn't going anywhere. And take out orders are now down 20% too. If they're lucky, they'll be able to get by by just losing one of the waiting staff and someone from the kitchen. If things are tighter, then maybe Joe's has to shut, and everyone has lost their job.
Suddenly those record job vacancies (and is there any more lagging market than employment?) aren't there any more.
But as I said, so long as Ukraine is resolved (i.e. Putin falls), then Boris will be fine. People understand a little transient discomfort, and this isn't as bad as Covid.
If it does not, however, and the sanctions drag on, then the UK economy (and most of the West) will fall into recession, and that will have consequences.
Although I doubt many would confuse me with the chief inspector of constabulary .
EDIT: I am trying to remember the chap who, when asked how he could deal with such people, said that he that for £947 an hour, he could listen to anyone.
Some knob tried to overtake me on North Bridge this morning (ultra narrow, with roadworks) and blasted his horn at me when I wouldn't go into the gutter. Needless to say I brought the city to a standstill by doing 1 mph the rest of the way across.
Chope is one of ours who is one of the latter.
It may do, but it's still got some dangerous features, and a lack of ambition.
And is many decades behind contemporary standards elsewhere.
The London cycling revolution has long had a problem with Not Invented Here.
Edit to say: feel free to use this idea if you are a writer: a “story idea” credit to Fysics_teacher will be fine.
The core economic threats to Tory voters are: a house price crash (though even here they would be less affected than younger home owners), and sustained inflation (which would erode the value of cash savings and annuities that aren't index-linked, but again they're relatively insulated from the worst effects by the state pension triple lock and index-linking on many occupational pensions).
If Johnson can promise to defend them from the tax-raising plans of Starmer, real or imagined, then the economic pain for the young... well, it's just a rite of passage. They survived real recessions back when people didn't have smartphones.
LAB: 41% (+2)
CON: 34% (=)
LDM: 10% (-1)
GRN: 4% (+1)
via @SavantaComRes, 13-15 May
(Changes with 8 May)
Net Favourability
Johnson -30
Starmer -10
Best PM
Johnson 34
Starmer 36 https://twitter.com/SavantaComRes/status/1527293893414227970/photo/1
Is that really the case? It doesn't pass the sniff test to me...
Mind, the nearest I ever came to being run over in Edinburgh was on South Bridge - I was walking across under the Green Man with plenty of time to spare, and a Reclaimn the Streets type demo of about 4 dozen cyclists just came straignt at me without stopping, through the red light. I couldn't even get to the kerb and had to stand still in fear and terror of the feral pack If I'd been the city head of planning, that would have made me want to cancel every single cycle lane in Edinburgh.
https://twitter.com/MirrorPolitics/status/1527293385089789953
Culture Secretary Nadine Dorries claims 96% of consultation responses support the privatisation of Channel 4.
@MrJohnNicolson points out that it's actually the other way around, with the government's own white paper stating 96% are against selling the broadcaster.
I also love her implication that if you're politically motivated to respond to a public consultation, your opinion doesn't count.
I posted this earlier
https://twitter.com/ChrisHopkins92/status/1527300862636199937?t=WSdQDeIOyY_MwAkHUxmCrQ&s=19
Or for odd you could use most accurate?
“Are you in favour of Chanel Four being ultimately under the control of Nadine Dorries?”
Good news, as long as the bike tyres stay out of the tramlines.
https://www.mailplus.co.uk/edition/comment/182926?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=shared_link
'We have no need to set up an ‘English Parliament’ in some shed in Milton Keynes, designed by one of those Blairite architects, all poles, points and projections with funny wooden bits glued on to relieve the boredom.
The Parliament at Westminster is English already, since the days of Simon de Montfort, and has simply given hospitality to others during the long adventure of the Union. By becoming wholly English again, it could recover much of its force and its purpose.'
Still. I wonder how close it is?
Google says there were 12.3 million people aged 65+ at the time of the last general election. We'll use that age group as a proxy for "retired".
Ipsos MORI found that 64% of the 65+ age group voted Tory, and that turnout in this age group was 74%.
This gives 5.8 million retired votes for the Tories, out of their 14 million total votes. Not a majority. Nearly 42%, though, so getting closer.
You would have to assume that more than 75% of pensioners voted Conservative to get to to half of all Conservative votes.
This is helpful - https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/how-britain-voted-2019-general-election
Sometimes creating facts on the ground works, even if the other side is pissed off about it. Just like Israel creating the wall to end the Intifada, we can create facts on the ground here.
We have left the Single Market, that is already done. If we refuse to enforce a border in the Irish Sea nobody else has the jurisdiction or ability to do so. If we refuse to enforce a land border, nobody else has the willingness to do so. Therefore it is entirely within the UK's remit if we so choose to create your so-called 🦄 whether other people like it or not.
We have full employment, discretionary spending is still happpening big time, house prices continue upwards.
Money needs to be taken out of the economy.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_Democrats
For example, where is Mays Kantor? If it shows a comparatively small Lab lead of just 4, it’s a shocker for the Tories. Whilst on your broad brush logic it’s within % Of everybody else.
Hope this helps 🙂
We only need to deal within our own borders. We just need to not have a border in the Irish Sea, and not impose a land border in Ireland, we don't need to interfere in anyone else's borders for what I am proposing. The EU is like Putin in this scenario in that they've tried to meddle in someone else's territory and unsurprisingly the people in the external territory are biting back.
The EU can do whatever they please within their own territory, that is their prerogative, and it is our prerogative to do what we please within our own territory. That's called sovereignty, you might wish to familiarise yourself with the concept as it seems alien to you.
The "security" systems in question break a major rule of cryptography. That if someone has the cipher machine, the keys and some example messages, they should be no closer to breaking the system than if they had nothing. An intercepted message today should get you nothing tomorrow.
Boris Johnson skipping away from partygate while a ton of juniors get fined & Rishi Sunak's ambitions get trashed is the most Boris Johnson thing ever
https://twitter.com/gabyhinsliff/status/1527250477238329346?cxt=HHwWhICxrfSN8bEqAAAA
So it’s not over then. We can’t move on. Each time a “new photo” the police hadn’t considered emerges, the investigation is reopened - just like the clamour to get the Starmer one reopened because of significant new evidence.
Horrendous for the police, if new photos and significant evidence keep popping up out the woodwork, you would agree? Rather than over, we may only have just begun 😟
Nb And actually, the police line, strong evidence was needed to issue fine is fantastic news for Starmer and Labour - although there is video footage of him holding a bottle, don’t forget the rules were different at that time, there has to be strong evidence he wasn’t working at same time as holding a bottle. If there’s not enough evidence Boris was conducting a job interview in a flat with a raucous “dingdong Dom is gone” party going on, Starmer’s safe.
Economic & Domestic Affairs and National Security Secretariats, Joint Intelligence Organisation and other units reporting directly to cab sec to be led by No 10 permanent secretary Samantha Jones - a proper dept for the PM
https://twitter.com/patrickkmaguire/status/1527318705188638721
Hold on, that's not quite right.
'No time for your permanent internecine wars'
The new leader may then not have enough time before the next GE to convince.
So are you agreeing a May Kantor of 4% Lab lead or more is a shocker for the Tories?
Though I doubt he will be fined nor go
Its funny that you were singing Starmer's praises and saying I was a terrible judge of character for not being impressed with Starmer, but now you reckon that Starmer going would be terrible news for Johnson. That you don't even click on how strange that is, is even more amusing than if Starmer has to go for such a stupid unforced error.
Though I doubt Putin will allow a Ukranian outright victory, otherwise he knows his Presidency is over if they force the Russians out of the country completely
You can also pause planned spending, Which if you take a look, the government has already been doing for some weeks now.
Any Holywood WWII movie made in the past 77 years.
No, I'm not. I don't judge things on movement from one poll of 1000 or so people to the next, that's what people should don't understand psychology do on twitter and get terribly excited by it.
Polls offer hints only on direction of travel etc.
Your initial assertion that ComRes are starkly different to everyone else on Green score, Lab score and gap is simply incorrect.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election
Starmer has done what he was needed for- purge the left and create space for a next generation PM in waiting to emerge. The plan was that was a five year job, he's done it in two. Well done him. If he goes, it will be (I hope) with thanks from a grateful nation.
Meanwhile Johnson may have been largely cleared by the Met, but he hasn't been cleansed by them. Let the leaking of photos to the Sunday papers commence.
Even for the Labour Party.
With twin issues of inflation and stagnant growth, the measures to tackle inflation can hurt growth, so being cautious and careful how to react to inflation spike is very sensible.
But it come to a point now there’s so many good ideas out there (I keep posting them) how to help the most hurting groups, it seems great political idea to call a budget and implement them. I would.
They won't make that mistake again.
Like the Americans in 1939-1940. So Mr JOhnson will be resorting to Hollywood levels of historical scholarship?