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Johnson an even stronger favourite to survive till 2024 – politicalbetting.com

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  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,949
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    Boris should be in deep trouble now. The one thing maybe saving him is the lack of a clear alternative. His team nobbled Sunak at just the right time

    Just the wrong time, perhaps. Boris could have cut a deal to retire in exchange for free holidays in Rishi's mansions around the world. Boris must be new to this grift lark. :wink:
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,961

    Someone posted recently a chart from iirc the Daily Mail showing different results ranges for the various parties. The Conservatives have lost well over 300 councillors which was a very bad result for the governing party, and its MPs are unlikely to be reassured by Labour not doing as well as hoped, because there are many southern seats, including the Prime Minister's own, under threat from the LibDems, who, along with the Greens, have done far better than expected.

    So I am not at all sure Boris is safe.

    The dial barely moved in Uxbridge & SR. If Boris is in danger it's entirely personal.

    ydoethur said:

    'The next electrical hurdles will be the outstanding Tory defences in the Westminster by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton'

    We're expecting some shocks there...

    Shocks. Are you expecting Tory holds?
    Wakefield, on the other hand, saw the Tories marmalised and I'm mid-point expecting a swing comfortably into double figures now at the by-election.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,681
    No Labour sweep in Newham. Greens won the 2 seats in Olympic Park ward
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FPT

    @rcs1000 - re Your view that there is only a 20-25% chance SKS gets a FPN, I’d put it at 50%+. The language is key. If Durham was doing this merely to placate the Daily Mail, their language would be a lot more hedged / non-committal. Saying significant new evidence means that evidence has not only emerged but they’ve also taken a view already of whether it’s valid or not. Plod, especially the Met, will also not be keen to be applying different standards between forces.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    edited May 2022

    Michelle O'Neill looks OK :blush:

    So she's taken off the balaclava?
    The Daily Mail has quite the take on M O'N:
    The beauty from a family drenched in blood .... Sounds like Dracula.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4165570/Michelle-O-Neill-s-family-s-shocking-IRA-past.html

    Time will show whether she can move things forward in NI.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    AP (via Seattle Times) - Indiana man charged with murder advances in township race

    LEBANON, Ind. (AP) — A central Indiana man charged with murder in connection with the March death of his wife is one of three candidates who advanced in a primary election this week for a township board.

    Andrew Wilhoite, 40, of Lebanon received 60 of the 276 total votes Tuesday for Republicans for three positions on the Clinton Township Board, Boone County election results show.

    Indiana township boards consist of three members, state officials said. The local Republican primary race drew only three candidates and no candidates filed for the Democratic primary ticket, The Indianapolis Star reported.

    Wilhoite was arrested in late March in the death of 41-year-old Elizabeth “Nikki” Wilhoite. He’s been held since then in the Boone County Jail without bond.

    Indiana State Police have said Andrew Wilhoite struck Nikki Wilhoite in the head with a blunt object, knocking her out. He then put her in a vehicle and drove to a creek a few miles from their home and dumped her body there, police said.

    Police found Nikki Wilhoite’s body on March 26 partially submerged in about 3 feet (1 meter) of water.

    Court records indicate Nikki Wilhoite filed for divorce on March 17. The couple had been married for 12 years.

    Andrew Wilhoite’s jury trial is scheduled for Aug. 29, online court records show.

    If he is convicted of a felony before the Nov. 8 general election, he would automatically be removed from the ballot. No Democrats have filed for the Clinton Township Board.

    “Under our legal system, every person is innocent until proven guilty,” said Brad King, co-director of the Indiana Election Division.

    A message seeking comment on the charges Wilhoite faces was left Friday by The Associated Press for Wilhoite’s attorney.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,631
    edited May 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    He was a barrister though, right? So it's far from impossible that it was Starmer for the Prosecution at some point.
    I genuinely have no idea how it works. Can you spend an entire legal career defending or prosecuting? Seems a bit odd that he became DPP if he never actually prosecuted. But I know nothing of this world

    I am also eating the best calamari of my life, as I write


  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 43,011

    No Labour sweep in Newham. Greens won the 2 seats in Olympic Park ward

    Barking & Dagenham is Labour-only.

    Redbridge is down to its last 5 Tories.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 8,685
    Leon said:

    Boris should be in deep trouble now. The one thing maybe saving him is the lack of a clear alternative. His team nobbled Sunak at just the right time

    Good for BoJo, bad for the Conservatives.

    It may be pushing it to avoid the parasite devouring it's host stage, even if it's a while off yet.
  • glwglw Posts: 8,876

    Reposting from previous thread ...

    I guess the major source of discrepancy in interpretation of the results is whether they are traditional "mid-term" ones. If they are, then those who are shrugging them off for the Tories definitely have a point. But for me, so much has changed since 2015 that talking about what is happening now in terms of what happened before is a mistake: the Scottish independence referendum, Brexit, Corbyn, covid and a cost of living squeeze that's only just begun have altered the landscape to a huge extent. Politics will be seen very much in terms of pre- and post-2015 in years to come, I reckon. Obviously, I could be totally wrong. It has been known ;-)

    I wouldn't lump all those events together. I'd say covid and Ukraine are qualitatively different, those are external and massive. So I'd draw the dividing line at the turn of 2019. Covid's really not gone away, it has the potential to throw out new variants that cause a hell of a lot of trouble all over again. But the question of how to deal with Russia, and China, is a bigger problem, and one we will all be living with for decades to come, and that's if we are lucky and it doesn't blow up into a third world war.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    He was a barrister though, right? So it's far from impossible that it was Starmer for the Prosecution at some point.
    I genuinely have no idea how it works. Can you spend an entire legal career defending or prosecuting? Seems a bit odd that he became DPP if he never actually prosecuted. But I know nothing of this world

    I am also eating the best calamari of my life, as I write


    You should get yourself to Bologna @Leon - fantastic restaurants are plentiful, as are great bars, it’s cheap and there are a lot of attractive Italian women around (I’m sure you’re not interested in the ones at the university though…)
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 797
    Posted before I realised there was a new thread:
    I think it's very questionable to assume that it's inevitable that there'll be a swing back to the government come to the next GE. For one, the 2017 GE showed that that the opposition can do better than their 'mid-term' polling suggests.
    It's also very questionable to assume that all VI Tory 2019 voters who didn't vote yesterday will vote for the Tories yesterday. And then there's the fact that I imagine come a election many of voters who voted Green last night will vote Labour in the marginals Lab need to win.
    Not a fantastic night for Labour, but really can't see the argument from some PB Tories that it shows Labour is going to lose - particularly, as they rely on 'political rules' which are now redundant post-Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    Unfortunately, that is not his current role.

    Wilson was iirc the youngest and most brilliant Oxford don in 400 years or some such, but he managed to become a man who represented the white hot aspirational future of booming 60s Britain against the old Etonian grouse shoot brigade.

    I just don't see that in Starmer.

    Of course in 1964 Wilson got in more because of a 5.5% swing from Conservative to Liberal than the 3% swing from Conservative to Labour.

    If Starmer becomes PM based on today's results it will look a lot more like 1964, with a lot of help from the Liberals, than a big swing to Labour like the 10% Conservative to Labour swing Blair got in 1997
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    He was a barrister though, right? So it's far from impossible that it was Starmer for the Prosecution at some point.
    I genuinely have no idea how it works. Can you spend an entire legal career defending or prosecuting? Seems a bit odd that he became DPP if he never actually prosecuted. But I know nothing of this world

    I am also eating the best calamari of my life, as I write


    Is that remoulade sauce? Somehow doubt it.
  • MattW said:

    Michelle O'Neill looks OK :blush:

    So she's taken off the balaclava?
    The Daily Mail has quite the take on M O'N:
    The beauty from a family drenched in blood .... Sounds like Dracula.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4165570/Michelle-O-Neill-s-family-s-shocking-IRA-past.html

    Time will show whether she can move things forward in NI.
    Lucrezia Borgia.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    Leon, having just done the Natchez Trace, you should ask your Turkish hosts IF they've got an Anabasis Historic Parkway?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,631

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    He was a barrister though, right? So it's far from impossible that it was Starmer for the Prosecution at some point.
    I genuinely have no idea how it works. Can you spend an entire legal career defending or prosecuting? Seems a bit odd that he became DPP if he never actually prosecuted. But I know nothing of this world

    I am also eating the best calamari of my life, as I write


    Is that remoulade sauce? Somehow doubt it.
    Couple of small mezze dishes. One is a spicy Turkish cheese tomato dip, the other aubergines and chili peppers. Both excellent
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 7,307
    Good result for Labour in Cardiff. Lib Dems and Plaid going nowhere. I might have expected the Greens to make a bit of progress but no. 55 out of 79 seats for one party makes me nervous though. Perhaps they've been doing a good job without me noticing?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    All first preferences now in in NI.
    SF 29 (+1.1)
    DUP 21.3 (-6.7)
    Alliance 13.5 (+4.5)
    UUP 11.2 (-1.7)
    SDLP 9.1 (-2.9)

    So far seats. SF 16. DUP, UUP and Alliance 2 each. SDLP 1. 1 Other (ex-DUP).

    So Unionist parties combined on 40.1% once you include the 7.6% for TUV and Nationalist parties combined on 38.1%.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/northern-ireland/results

    Once preferences are included the DUP and UUP and Alliance will pick up a lot more seats
    How does Alliance declare itself in terms of Unionist / Nationalist?

    Is there a Wallflowers category?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    He was a barrister though, right? So it's far from impossible that it was Starmer for the Prosecution at some point.
    I genuinely have no idea how it works. Can you spend an entire legal career defending or prosecuting? Seems a bit odd that he became DPP if he never actually prosecuted. But I know nothing of this world

    I am also eating the best calamari of my life, as I write


    Is that remoulade sauce? Somehow doubt it.
    Couple of small mezze dishes. One is a spicy Turkish cheese tomato dip, the other aubergines and chili peppers. Both excellent
    OMG. Is that actually water in the glass rather than neat alcohol?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    Offtopic I know, but F1. Mercedes have a lot of upgrades this weekend, and are looking competitive against Ferrari and Red Bull in first practice. Could be a three way fight this weekend, the silver cars might be worth backing for a podium.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571
    Roger said:



    I'm beginning to think the inquiry into drinks in Durham might turn out to be surprisingly good for Starmer.

    :

    Oh dear, Rogerdarmus strikes again! Keith's a goner! :D
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    All first preferences now in in NI.
    SF 29 (+1.1)
    DUP 21.3 (-6.7)
    Alliance 13.5 (+4.5)
    UUP 11.2 (-1.7)
    SDLP 9.1 (-2.9)

    So far seats. SF 16. DUP, UUP and Alliance 2 each. SDLP 1. 1 Other (ex-DUP).

    So Unionist parties combined on 40.1% once you include the 7.6% for TUV and Nationalist parties combined on 38.1%.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/northern-ireland/results

    Once preferences are included the DUP and UUP and Alliance will pick up a lot more seats
    How does Alliance declare itself in terms of Unionist / Nationalist?

    Is there a Wallflowers category?
    It is non sectarian and pro NI protocol but still opposed to a border poll at this time
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154

    MattW said:

    Michelle O'Neill looks OK :blush:

    So she's taken off the balaclava?
    The Daily Mail has quite the take on M O'N:
    The beauty from a family drenched in blood .... Sounds like Dracula.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4165570/Michelle-O-Neill-s-family-s-shocking-IRA-past.html

    Time will show whether she can move things forward in NI.
    Lucrezia Borgia.
    I
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    Was he not? Although head of the DPP?

    Then this judge must have said best “lawyer” in general, which is even more impressive. He had no reason to lie to me
    He specialised in Defence only.

    Says Wiki.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    Roger said:

    Wes Streeting is very good indeed! A future leader perhaps?

    I'm beginning to think the inquiry into drinks in Durham might turn out to be surprisingly good for Starmer. The contrast with Johnson is stark. The Tories might have made a serious error of judgement. I've never seen anyone who looks less likely to have been partying during lockdown than Starmer

    Good for the Labour Party (so long as they don't replace him with a Corbynista) but not for Starmer. His underlying uselessness has been ruthlessly exposed today, both by the electorate and by failing to put Beergate to bed a week ago.

    There are some decent Front Benchers to replace him.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 49,002
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    He was a barrister though, right? So it's far from impossible that it was Starmer for the Prosecution at some point.
    I genuinely have no idea how it works. Can you spend an entire legal career defending or prosecuting? Seems a bit odd that he became DPP if he never actually prosecuted. But I know nothing of this world

    I am also eating the best calamari of my life, as I write


    Bodrum?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,018
    Told you so (and bet I did).
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    The New Statesman
    @NewStatesman
    ·
    20m
    Starmer’s repeated calls for Boris Johnson to resign over Downing Street parties have come back to haunt him, writes
    @freddiejh8
    .

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author


    ===

    Burnham for Wakefield?

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,631

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    He was a barrister though, right? So it's far from impossible that it was Starmer for the Prosecution at some point.
    I genuinely have no idea how it works. Can you spend an entire legal career defending or prosecuting? Seems a bit odd that he became DPP if he never actually prosecuted. But I know nothing of this world

    I am also eating the best calamari of my life, as I write


    Is that remoulade sauce? Somehow doubt it.
    Couple of small mezze dishes. One is a spicy Turkish cheese tomato dip, the other aubergines and chili peppers. Both excellent
    OMG. Is that actually water in the glass rather than neat alcohol?
    I’m afraid so. I have already had three G&Ts and I am on my hired moped. I am nonetheless risking a tiny thimble of white wine (on the left)

    Turkish wine is great now. Wine is an almost universally improved product. So many countries now make excellent wine

    Yay for humans and their viticulture
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571
    edited May 2022
    Anyone else noticed the TV appearances seem to have dried up for Bercow?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 49,018
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The hot takes from this morning have aged poorly.

    This is a disaster for the Tories.

    But Labour are making no gains. Once again, you're not seeing the bigger story that the opposition is not on course to win. Government loses midterm is a fairly expected result and governments come back from it. Opposition loses midterm is what we expect from parties that aren't going to win.

    We're on course for a 1992 style result with the Tories getting a working majority under a busted flush leader and completely unruly and undisciplined backbenchers worried about losing their majorities in 4 or 5 years.

    The Tories are not going to get 43% of the vote in 2024.

    1992 style result, not actually 1992. David Cameron got a similar working majority with just 37% on less favourable boundaries.
    1992 had a moderately strong Lib Lab understanding of who would fight the Tories where, which the voters tacitly understood. Hence Major's 42% giving a thin majority.

    2015 was peak Lib on Lab war action.
    Whatever the opposite of tactical voting is. Hence Cameron winning on a much lower percentage.

    What do you really think 2024 will be like?

    Starmer is not a winner, sure. But unless the Conservatives properly relaunch, he may not need to be.
    If I was to put specific number ranges I'd guess at:

    Con - 335-340
    Lab - 225-230
    LD - 20-25
    SNP - 40-45

    That's with Boris as leader. If the Tories change leadership then I think the Tories could do a lot better, simply because there's a lot of people who voted Tory in 2019 and 2017 but aren't in that Tory column right now but also haven't been won over by Labour. That column of voters has the potential to deliver another Tory landslide that the blue tick wankers on Twitter won't see coming just like 2015.
    You’re too optimistic for the Tories. The economy is going dahn the khazi whatever happens. 10% inflation is going to HURT

    it won’t be “because Brexit” or “because Boris” it will be because Covid, China, Ukraine, Covid, but voters will still blame the government, as they always do. Labour now look tolerably respectable, but also seriously boring.

    I reckon something like Con 280, Labour 260 is the most likely result, with Starmer, probably, forming a fragile Coalition government. Starmer will refuse a Scottish indyref so it will be even more frail than most coalitions. It will probably collapse within the year and Starmer will go back to the country

    A couple of things might change this (black swans aside). 1. Somehow voters forgive Boris - but how and why? I reckon Boris has done a sterling job in Ukraine, above and beyond what I expected, and that is the biggest foreign policy crisis of recent times, yet he has got zero credit. I’m not sure what else he could do to regain trust and favour. He feels busted.

    Or the Tories could get a new leader. But none of the candidates seem that inspiring on a national level - tho personally I’d be happy with Truss or Mordaunt. Many people would not.

    I simply don’t see where the Tory revival comes from
    The Tory revival comes from a grown up who can deal with the economic situation.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 2,373
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Taz said:

    Mediocre for labour, A mixed bag for the Tories but pretty bad in their heartlands, a good result for the Lib Dems. The greens gained a handful.

    Overall the winners last night are the Lib Dems.

    Fair summary. It does look as though the Lib-Dems have been forgiven for the coalition and are now back in the game.

    Of course the Lib-Dem success will melt away like June snow in the general election...
    I think the LDs are on course to get roughly the same number of MPs they got in 1992 - roughly 20.

    The difference is that they probably won't get any west country seats, except possibly St Ives. And their gains will be in the more leafy, prosperous and Remainiac parts of the South East.
    And hopefully NE Somerset.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    Yet another Hoosier horror story . . .

    Politico.com - Amid an uproar over Capitol staff mistreatment, meet the House’s ‘worst boss’
    Multiple former aides and other Republicans told POLITICO about the “trauma bonded” work environment of Rep. Victoria Spartz.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/06/capitol-house-staff-mistreatment-spartz-00030498

    Rep. Victoria Spartz topped a nonpartisan group’s “Worst Bosses” list last year, winning the dubious title of most staff turnover in the House. Her retention record is only getting worse.

    Four aides are departing the Indiana Republican’s office this month after another exited weeks ago, leaving a skeleton crew of staffers in the first-term lawmaker’s D.C. office. Spartz’s exodus is on the radar of GOP leadership, which has tried to address her performance as an employer at least twice since the end of last year, according to a senior Republican close to the matter. . . .

    [F]ormer staffers and other Republicans told POLITICO she frequently yells and curses at aides, belittling her staff’s intelligence and berating them in front of others — members, constituents and even with reporters in close proximity. On more than one occasion, three former staffers said, Spartz likened her aides’ writing skills to those of elementary-school students and proclaimed that her children were more talented than her staff.”. . . .

    The nonpartisan website Legistorm listed Spartz as the House member with the most employee turnover in 2021, with staffers leaving at more than 3.5 times the average of congressional offices. She fell only behind a member who retired in the middle of his term: Rep. Devin Nunes (R-Calif.), who left the House to lead Donald Trump’s new social media platform. . . .

    Compounding the problem for Spartz aides is this week’s pending departure of her chief of staff, Renee Hudson, whom one former staffer praised as the “gold standard” for a boss — one who shielded them from the worst fallout and held the office together. Hudson’s exit on Friday comes after another senior staffer left in November, which means there will be no barriers between Spartz and more junior aides for the time being. . . .

    Spartz, a 43-year-old former state senator, is experiencing a period of heightened visibility as the first Ukrainian immigrant elected to the House. She’s shared emotional stories about the distress she’s experienced keeping in touch with her family during Russia’s brutal assault on Ukraine.

    Meanwhile, behind closed doors, staffers say her response to previous staff departures followed a familiar pattern, according to multiple former staffers and Republicans: She would respond that she was effectively doing the jobs of her exiting aides anyway. . . .
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,503
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone else noticed the TV appearances seems to have dried up for Bercow?

    He was last seen on Cameo, shouting Happy Birthday to people for a few quid.

    https://www.cameo.com/johnbercow
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    TimT said:

    At last we have some clear-headed, sane analysis and prediction of how the war in Ukraine will end ...

    https://twitter.com/EvangelistMDyal/status/1522646548173185025

    I listened to a slightly extended analysis earlier, and I think it mentioned that President Z was suggesting talks being possible once Google was back at its pre-February 2022.

    It was a video address to Chatham House today, or perhaps in the conversation afterwards.

    https://www.france24.com/en/video/20220506-replay-ukrainian-president-volodymyr-zelensky-speaks-to-chatham-house
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 23,287
    So what happened in Harrow to cause the Conservatives gain the council from Labour ?

    Something local or further evidence of Hindus moving rightwards ?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,631
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    He was a barrister though, right? So it's far from impossible that it was Starmer for the Prosecution at some point.
    I genuinely have no idea how it works. Can you spend an entire legal career defending or prosecuting? Seems a bit odd that he became DPP if he never actually prosecuted. But I know nothing of this world

    I am also eating the best calamari of my life, as I write


    Bodrum?
    Kusadasi, south of Izmir

    It’s REALLY nice. Much less pricey and self conscious than Bodrum and just as beautiful. Ephesus is 15km away

    Recommended by @Nigelb and @TimT on here. And thankyou to them
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,634
    MattW said:

    Michelle O'Neill looks OK :blush:

    So she's taken off the balaclava?
    The Daily Mail has quite the take on M O'N:
    The beauty from a family drenched in blood .... Sounds like Dracula.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4165570/Michelle-O-Neill-s-family-s-shocking-IRA-past.html

    Time will show whether she can move things forward in NI.
    The Mail really is a piece of work. The world would definitely be a better place without it. The article should be read. Bear in mind she is 40 and the events they are talking about were 1990 when she would have been eight
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 43,011
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    All first preferences now in in NI.
    SF 29 (+1.1)
    DUP 21.3 (-6.7)
    Alliance 13.5 (+4.5)
    UUP 11.2 (-1.7)
    SDLP 9.1 (-2.9)

    So far seats. SF 16. DUP, UUP and Alliance 2 each. SDLP 1. 1 Other (ex-DUP).

    So Unionist parties combined on 40.1% once you include the 7.6% for TUV and Nationalist parties combined on 38.1%.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/northern-ireland/results

    Once preferences are included the DUP and UUP and Alliance will pick up a lot more seats
    How does Alliance declare itself in terms of Unionist / Nationalist?

    Is there a Wallflowers category?
    "It opposes the consociational power-sharing mandated by the Good Friday Agreement as deepening the sectarian divide, and, in the Northern Ireland Assembly, it is designated as neither unionist nor Irish nationalist, but 'Other'.|"

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alliance_Party_of_Northern_Ireland
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,802
    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic I know, but F1. Mercedes have a lot of upgrades this weekend, and are looking competitive against Ferrari and Red Bull in first practice. Could be a three way fight this weekend, the silver cars might be worth backing for a podium.

    Considering the absolute dog of a car they've had over the first four races, it's pretty startling that Mercedes are third in the constructors' championship, and Russell is fourth in the drivers. Good driving by Russell.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Paul Waugh
    @paulwaugh
    ·
    2h
    Looking like the Tories are moving from DISAPPOINTMENT and creeping towards DISASTER.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    My point about Starmer stands. He's a top-rank lawyer, notwithstanding partisan jeers of the peanut gallery.

    Which is WAY different thing than just being an average lawyer, let alone a lawyer who spends most of their time politicking.

    And a top-rank lawyer is RARELY a top-rank politico. Esp. on the campaign trail.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 32,802
    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone else noticed the TV appearances seem to have dried up for Bercow?

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind. ;)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 43,011
    MattW said:

    Michelle O'Neill looks OK :blush:

    So she's taken off the balaclava?
    The Daily Mail has quite the take on M O'N:
    The beauty from a family drenched in blood .... Sounds like Dracula.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4165570/Michelle-O-Neill-s-family-s-shocking-IRA-past.html

    Time will show whether she can move things forward in NI.
    Oh, I'm sure if you do your research, the British Empire killed lots of people too.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640
    MattW said:

    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    All first preferences now in in NI.
    SF 29 (+1.1)
    DUP 21.3 (-6.7)
    Alliance 13.5 (+4.5)
    UUP 11.2 (-1.7)
    SDLP 9.1 (-2.9)

    So far seats. SF 16. DUP, UUP and Alliance 2 each. SDLP 1. 1 Other (ex-DUP).

    So Unionist parties combined on 40.1% once you include the 7.6% for TUV and Nationalist parties combined on 38.1%.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/northern-ireland/results

    Once preferences are included the DUP and UUP and Alliance will pick up a lot more seats
    How does Alliance declare itself in terms of Unionist / Nationalist?

    Is there a Wallflowers category?
    It’s neither now basically neutral on the issue . Originally when it was founded it believed in the Union and its pro EU .
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 6,773

    The New Statesman
    @NewStatesman
    ·
    20m
    Starmer’s repeated calls for Boris Johnson to resign over Downing Street parties have come back to haunt him, writes
    @freddiejh8
    .

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author


    ===

    Burnham for Wakefield?

    If Labour want to lose the next election Burnham is the man to lead them. In the south he is too redolent of Labour as it was before taking over large chunks of the middle class. Rightly or wrongly he conveys 'Union man'. He would win big in all the places they win big, but that's not enough.

  • LeonLeon Posts: 30,631

    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic I know, but F1. Mercedes have a lot of upgrades this weekend, and are looking competitive against Ferrari and Red Bull in first practice. Could be a three way fight this weekend, the silver cars might be worth backing for a podium.

    Considering the absolute dog of a car they've had over the first four races, it's pretty startling that Mercedes are third in the constructors' championship, and Russell is fourth in the drivers. Good driving by Russell.
    I experienced Americans - on discovering I am British/European - asking me eagerly about F1 when I was there last week. Never happened before. Seems to be gaining in popularity across the Pond?

    This article affirms that notion

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellore/2022/05/06/miami-grand-prix-signifies-formula-1s-popularity-acceptance-in-us/
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    1h
    The Tories had better hope Starmer refuses to resign.

    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1522638593826635782
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571
    edited May 2022

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone else noticed the TV appearances seem to have dried up for Bercow?

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind. ;)
    In an attempt to "rehabilitate" himself I suspect he'll pop up on a reality show before long... He couldn't do Strictly as they'd never find a professional dancer small enough to partner with him ;)

    So I guess that leaves celeb Big Brother (is that even still on?) Celeb Love Island (is that actually a thing?) or most likely the Jungle?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Blue wall news...



    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Blimey, LibDems wipe out Labour completely in St Alban's and reduce Tories to 4 seats taking 50 seats for themselves.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    edited May 2022

    MattW said:

    Michelle O'Neill looks OK :blush:

    So she's taken off the balaclava?
    The Daily Mail has quite the take on M O'N:
    The beauty from a family drenched in blood .... Sounds like Dracula.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4165570/Michelle-O-Neill-s-family-s-shocking-IRA-past.html

    Time will show whether she can move things forward in NI.
    Oh, I'm sure if you do your research, the British Empire killed lots of people too.
    Indeed.

    That's the Mail being the Mail. It's a tabloid newspaper.

    McGuiness and Paisley found a modus operandi that made significant moves forward. I'd say the question is whether O'Neil looks forward or retreats into history. The same for the various leaders on the Unionist side.

    Perhaps it is more difficult for people who are one step removed from actual participation in historic events ?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698
    Labour has gained Mayfair … and lost Hull. Sort of sums it up really.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    We're up to 481 Tory losses with a few councils still to go. That is very, very close to @HYUFD's "unachievably large" number.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,907

    My view ... Leader of the Opposition facing Boris falls into the category of the fucking Easiest Job in the World.

    So, +54 seats in England ... that is pretty darned unimpressive.

    The Drake got +66 in Wales alone, with far fewer seats up for grabs.

    It confirms my feeling that Labour made the wrong choice of Leader in 2020.

    @bigjohnowls has been proved right.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829
    RobD said:

    Carnyx said:

    CatMan said:

    The Councillor change reported on the Guardian seems different to what people are saying here. Is it the Guardian being the Guardian, or am I just an idiot (don't answer that last part)?

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2022/may/05/elections-2022-results-live-local-council-england-scotland-wales

    Maybe 2017 versus last week? (ie allowing or not for by elections, defections etc.?) The National is also showing a dfiferent table from the PA.
    Was almost tempted to put together another spreadsheet, like for the 2017 elections. I had both numbers reported. :D
    National now on this:

    SNP - 453 seats (up 22)

    Labour - 282 seats (up 20)

    Tories - 214 seats (down 62)

    Independents - 152 seats (down 16)

    LibDems - 87 seats (up 20)

    Greens - 35 seats (up 16)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    mwadams said:

    We're up to 481 Tory losses with a few councils still to go. That is very, very close to @HYUFD's "unachievably large" number.

    Nothing has changed!!!!!
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640
    I tend to think Starmer thought he hadn’t broken any lockdown rules as it would be pretty daft to go after Johnson in the manner he has.

    There are so many moving pieces to what might happen over the next few months before the summer recess .

    Does Johnson get anymore FPNs . How restricted are Labour now in criticizing him if he does .

    What happens with the Sue Grey report .

    For Johnson he should want any more FPNs and the Sue Grey report rushed out before Durham police make a decision on Starmer .

    For Starmer he needs Durham to report quickly .

    If he receives a FPN he will have to resign , but do this in a way to cause the most damage to the Tories and Johnson .

  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    edited May 2022

    Blue wall news...



    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Blimey, LibDems wipe out Labour completely in St Alban's and reduce Tories to 4 seats taking 50 seats for themselves.

    (For perspective, Labour lost 3, Tories 18 - efficient anti-Tory work, and LD hold.)
  • Blue wall news...



    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Blimey, LibDems wipe out Labour completely in St Alban's and reduce Tories to 4 seats taking 50 seats for themselves.

    That's Daisy Cooper's constituency, which she won with an outright majority of the vote last time. Already in the yellow peril column.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571



    @bigjohnowls has been proved right.

    Big John is like the anti-Rogerdarmus to be honest...
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 28,829

    MattW said:

    Michelle O'Neill looks OK :blush:

    So she's taken off the balaclava?
    The Daily Mail has quite the take on M O'N:
    The beauty from a family drenched in blood .... Sounds like Dracula.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4165570/Michelle-O-Neill-s-family-s-shocking-IRA-past.html

    Time will show whether she can move things forward in NI.
    Oh, I'm sure if you do your research, the British Empire killed lots of people too.
    Especially in Ireland.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    Politico.com - Canada's first Conservative leadership debate in one word: Nasty
    Here are five things to watch for when they meet again next week in Alberta.

    https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/06/canada-first-conservative-leadership-debate-00030707

    . . . . One longtime party operative called Thursday’s showdown at downtown Ottawa’s Shaw Centre, hosted alongside the Canada Strong and Free Network (CSFN) conference, the most intense leadership debate he’d ever witnessed.

    Five candidates participated: Scott Aitchison, Roman Baber, Jean Charest, Leslyn Lewis and Pierre Poilievre. A sixth candidate, Patrick Brown, spent the evening campaigning on the East Coast. His campaign tells POLITICO that he will attend both of the party’s official debates later this month. . . .

    Takeaway 1: Everybody agrees Conservatives weren’t Conservative enough during the last election campaign

    The candidates were unanimous on precisely one point: Former party Leader Erin O’Toole’s 2021 election platform failed to offer a coherent Conservative vision. . . .

    Takeaway 2: Leslyn Lewis has her guns trained on Pierre Poilievre

    Lewis is the lone champion of social conservatives in this race, and her opponents know those supporters will influence the outcome of the race. They barely mentioned her name, let alone critiqued her proposals. . . .

    Takeaway 3: Poilievre’s signature attack works like a charm

    Anyone who’s watched Poilievre at a parliamentary committee recognizes his bulldog tactics. He pelts witnesses with simple questions until they either answer or the chair suspends the meeting.

    Poilievre employed the same technique Thursday, demanding to know how much the Chinese telecom giant Huawei had paid Charest for his consulting services. “How much? How much? How much?” Charest refused to respond. . . .

    Takeaway 4: The Freedom Convoy was a popular cause . . .

    It might’ve been a room full of white-collar conservatives, but they loudly supported the Freedom Convoy. Many cheered anyone who opposed lockdowns.

    At one point, Charest spun Poilievre’s advocacy for the Freedom Convoy as support for illegal protests. That remark was met with the night’s only sustained round of booing. . . .

    Takeaway 5: Never mind the room, candidates are out for clips
    Charest scored a blow against Poilievre on Bill 21, the Quebec law that bans public servants, including teachers, from wearing religious symbols at work. Charest accused Poilievre of telling a French-language interviewer that he wouldn’t intervene if a legal challenge of the law found its way to the Supreme Court.

    Poilievre said he opposed the law, but didn’t directly deny Charest’s claim. The conference attendees in the room appeared less enthused about that exchange, but Charest wasn’t playing to them — his target audience was across the river in Quebec.
  • GIN1138 said:



    @bigjohnowls has been proved right.

    Big John is like the anti-Rogerdarmus to be honest...
    EICIPM was half-right.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    mwadams said:

    We're up to 481 Tory losses with a few councils still to go. That is very, very close to @HYUFD's "unachievably large" number.

    That was 800 seat losses, the 516 number was the comparison to what the Major Tories lost in 1994
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone else noticed the TV appearances seem to have dried up for Bercow?

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind. ;)
    In an attempt to "rehabilitate" himself I suspect he'll pop up on a reality show before long... He couldn't do Strictly as they'd never find a professional dancer small enough to partner with him ;)

    So I guess that leaves celeb Big Brother (is that even still on?) Celeb Love Island (is that actually a thing?) or most likely the Jungle?
    No doubt where you & many other PBers would like to see John Bercow next, is on Joe Rogan's "Fear Factor" wading though a malarial swamp and washing down large grubs with beakers of bat blood?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,639

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    So the judge is wrong?
    Probably loose on his use of language

    Starmer specialised in challenging the government on human rights breaches etc. so an advocate not a prosecutor
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,571

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone else noticed the TV appearances seem to have dried up for Bercow?

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind. ;)
    In an attempt to "rehabilitate" himself I suspect he'll pop up on a reality show before long... He couldn't do Strictly as they'd never find a professional dancer small enough to partner with him ;)

    So I guess that leaves celeb Big Brother (is that even still on?) Celeb Love Island (is that actually a thing?) or most likely the Jungle?
    No doubt where you & many other PBers would like to see John Bercow next, is on Joe Rogan's "Fear Factor" wading though a malarial swamp and washing down large grubs with beakers of bat blood?
    Fine by me :D
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082

    So what happened in Harrow to cause the Conservatives gain the council from Labour ?

    Something local or further evidence of Hindus moving rightwards ?

    Modi operandi
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,754

    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone else noticed the TV appearances seem to have dried up for Bercow?

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind. ;)
    In an attempt to "rehabilitate" himself I suspect he'll pop up on a reality show before long... He couldn't do Strictly as they'd never find a professional dancer small enough to partner with him ;)

    So I guess that leaves celeb Big Brother (is that even still on?) Celeb Love Island (is that actually a thing?) or most likely the Jungle?
    No doubt where you & many other PBers would like to see John Bercow next, is on Joe Rogan's "Fear Factor" wading though a malarial swamp and washing down large grubs with beakers of bat blood?
    Why? What harm did a malarial swamp do to you?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348
    edited May 2022

    My point about Starmer stands. He's a top-rank lawyer, notwithstanding partisan jeers of the peanut gallery.

    Which is WAY different thing than just being an average lawyer, let alone a lawyer who spends most of their time politicking.

    And a top-rank lawyer is RARELY a top-rank politico. Esp. on the campaign trail.

    Malcolm Turnbull also being another example in Australia in 2016.

    Hillary Clinton was also highly ranked in legal journals and guides
  • MattWMattW Posts: 15,154
    edited May 2022
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic I know, but F1. Mercedes have a lot of upgrades this weekend, and are looking competitive against Ferrari and Red Bull in first practice. Could be a three way fight this weekend, the silver cars might be worth backing for a podium.

    Considering the absolute dog of a car they've had over the first four races, it's pretty startling that Mercedes are third in the constructors' championship, and Russell is fourth in the drivers. Good driving by Russell.
    I experienced Americans - on discovering I am British/European - asking me eagerly about F1 when I was there last week. Never happened before. Seems to be gaining in popularity across the Pond?

    This article affirms that notion

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellore/2022/05/06/miami-grand-prix-signifies-formula-1s-popularity-acceptance-in-us/
    Has US F1 track designs improved over the 1980s? :smile:

    This was the Caesar's Palace Car Park Track:


  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    I think she’s great. If Starmer goes I’d love to see her lead the party .
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816

    Blue wall news...



    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Blimey, LibDems wipe out Labour completely in St Alban's and reduce Tories to 4 seats taking 50 seats for themselves.

    Labour only had 2 seats to begin with!
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    Rachel Reeves might win for Labour in 2024.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    Sir Keir Starmer might make NOM in 2024.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640
    Martin is right .

    If Starmer goes all the questions will be PM why haven’t you resigned ?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,912
    HYUFD said:

    My point about Starmer stands. He's a top-rank lawyer, notwithstanding partisan jeers of the peanut gallery.

    Which is WAY different thing than just being an average lawyer, let alone a lawyer who spends most of their time politicking.

    And a top-rank lawyer is RARELY a top-rank politico. Esp. on the campaign trail.

    Malcolm Turnbull also being another example in Australia in 2016.

    Hillary Clinton was also highly ranked in legal journals and guides
    Yes, wasn't she the first female partner in history at some prestigious Arkansas firm she worked at?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    ydoethur said:

    'The next electrical hurdles will be the outstanding Tory defences in the Westminster by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton'

    We're expecting some shocks there...

    That people expect any defence to be lost, even massive majorities, is significant whatever the outcome.
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 2,403
    HYUFD said:

    mwadams said:

    We're up to 481 Tory losses with a few councils still to go. That is very, very close to @HYUFD's "unachievably large" number.

    That was 800 seat losses, the 516 number was the comparison to what the Major Tories lost in 1994
    800! Sorry, I misremembered. You really did put that figure out of sight of anything remotely plausible! That's nearly half of all seats contested.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Andy Burnham definitely wins why bugger about with Philipson.

    He could have Rayners seat when she is forced to resign for holding SKS's empties
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 56,754
    Quincel said:

    HYUFD said:

    My point about Starmer stands. He's a top-rank lawyer, notwithstanding partisan jeers of the peanut gallery.

    Which is WAY different thing than just being an average lawyer, let alone a lawyer who spends most of their time politicking.

    And a top-rank lawyer is RARELY a top-rank politico. Esp. on the campaign trail.

    Malcolm Turnbull also being another example in Australia in 2016.

    Hillary Clinton was also highly ranked in legal journals and guides
    Yes, wasn't she the first female partner in history at some prestigious Arkansas firm she worked at?
    She definitely wasn't great at politics.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    nico679 said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    I think she’s great. If Starmer goes I’d love to see her lead the party .
    Would she run? She should.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,639
    TimT said:

    At last we have some clear-headed, sane analysis and prediction of how the war in Ukraine will end ...

    https://twitter.com/EvangelistMDyal/status/1522646548173185025

    Evangelists believe that a final battle is required on the plains of Megiddo to trigger the Eschaton
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    No Labour sweep in Newham. Greens won the 2 seats in Olympic Park ward

    Stodge will be over the moon for some variety at an election for the first time in 16 years!
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,639
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    He was a barrister though, right? So it's far from impossible that it was Starmer for the Prosecution at some point.
    I’m sure that the lawyer meant advocate.

    Starmer specialised in suing the government I believe. He didn’t work for the CPS until he was DPP.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    mwadams said:

    Blue wall news...



    Guido Fawkes
    @GuidoFawkes
    Blimey, LibDems wipe out Labour completely in St Alban's and reduce Tories to 4 seats taking 50 seats for themselves.

    (For perspective, Labour lost 3, Tories 18 - efficient anti-Tory work, and LD hold.)
    It is interesting when LD bastions emerge. What about the areas, which can be widely spread, causes it?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 19,698

    Rachel Reeves might win for Labour in 2024.

    No chance female SKS with less likeability
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 3,639
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Michelle O'Neill looks OK :blush:

    So she's taken off the balaclava?
    The Daily Mail has quite the take on M O'N:
    The beauty from a family drenched in blood .... Sounds like Dracula.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4165570/Michelle-O-Neill-s-family-s-shocking-IRA-past.html

    Time will show whether she can move things forward in NI.
    Lucrezia Borgia.
    I
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    Foxy said:

    Re: Starmer, am starting to think that his biggest problem as a political party leader, is the fact that he is first and foremost a top-flight lawyer?

    A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.

    They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .

    Clement Attlee, Tony Blair...
    I do NOT mean lawyering in Parliament, I mean in the courts.
    Starmer was never a rock star level advocate anyway. DPP is administration, not actually doing it
    Is that true?

    I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event

    Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
    He was never a prosecutor
    Was he not? Although head of the DPP?

    Then this judge must have said best “lawyer” in general, which is even more impressive. He had no reason to lie to me
    He specialised in Defence only.

    Says Wiki.
    Ashcroft a view was he was a great builder of cases behind the scenes but decidedly average in court
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 797

    Labour has gained Mayfair … and lost Hull. Sort of sums it up really.

    Unless you're expecting the Lib Dems to be in contention in the Hull seats come the election, I probably wouldn't read too much into that one.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082

    Rachel Reeves might win for Labour in 2024.

    No chance female SKS with less likeability
    Reeves is a top-rank lawyer? Good to know!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082

    TimT said:

    At last we have some clear-headed, sane analysis and prediction of how the war in Ukraine will end ...

    https://twitter.com/EvangelistMDyal/status/1522646548173185025

    Evangelists believe that a final battle is required on the plains of Megiddo to trigger the Eschaton
    That's what Mike Pompeo's shuttle "diplomacy" as 45's Secretary of State was all about.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 797


    My view ... Leader of the Opposition facing Boris falls into the category of the fucking Easiest Job in the World.

    So, +54 seats in England ... that is pretty darned unimpressive.

    The Drake got +66 in Wales alone, with far fewer seats up for grabs.

    It confirms my feeling that Labour made the wrong choice of Leader in 2020.

    @bigjohnowls has been proved right.

    I assume you mean Mark Drakeford, not Rebecca Long-Bailey....
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716
    Is the media / Tory MPs just going to ignore the current situation and pretend it’s all based on “economic circumstance”

    Before the results, I thought losing 150 was seen as a bad night. Creeping toward 500 and the lesson will be “stick with Boris because Labour hasn’t made much progress”. Right.
  • RandallFlaggRandallFlagg Posts: 797
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Anyone else noticed the TV appearances seem to have dried up for Bercow?

    Oh dear. How sad. Never mind. ;)
    In an attempt to "rehabilitate" himself I suspect he'll pop up on a reality show before long... He couldn't do Strictly as they'd never find a professional dancer small enough to partner with him ;)

    So I guess that leaves celeb Big Brother (is that even still on?) Celeb Love Island (is that actually a thing?) or most likely the Jungle?
    The Masked Singer? Freeze the Fear with Wim Hof?
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 2,716
    MattW said:

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    Offtopic I know, but F1. Mercedes have a lot of upgrades this weekend, and are looking competitive against Ferrari and Red Bull in first practice. Could be a three way fight this weekend, the silver cars might be worth backing for a podium.

    Considering the absolute dog of a car they've had over the first four races, it's pretty startling that Mercedes are third in the constructors' championship, and Russell is fourth in the drivers. Good driving by Russell.
    I experienced Americans - on discovering I am British/European - asking me eagerly about F1 when I was there last week. Never happened before. Seems to be gaining in popularity across the Pond?

    This article affirms that notion

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaellore/2022/05/06/miami-grand-prix-signifies-formula-1s-popularity-acceptance-in-us/
    Has US F1 track designs improved over the 1980s? :smile:

    This was the Caesar's Palace Car Park Track:


    Huge growth in the USA. Though GPs now turning into huge Super Bowl like events. Not a bad thing tbh - but some traditionalists will hate it
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 2,644
    nico679 said:

    I tend to think Starmer thought he hadn’t broken any lockdown rules as it would be pretty daft to go after Johnson in the manner he has.

    There are so many moving pieces to what might happen over the next few months before the summer recess .

    Does Johnson get anymore FPNs . How restricted are Labour now in criticizing him if he does .

    What happens with the Sue Grey report .

    For Johnson he should want any more FPNs and the Sue Grey report rushed out before Durham police make a decision on Starmer .

    For Starmer he needs Durham to report quickly .

    If he receives a FPN he will have to resign , but do this in a way to cause the most damage to the Tories and Johnson .

    GRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY, not Grey
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 20,506

    nico679 said:

    I tend to think Starmer thought he hadn’t broken any lockdown rules as it would be pretty daft to go after Johnson in the manner he has.

    There are so many moving pieces to what might happen over the next few months before the summer recess .

    Does Johnson get anymore FPNs . How restricted are Labour now in criticizing him if he does .

    What happens with the Sue Grey report .

    For Johnson he should want any more FPNs and the Sue Grey report rushed out before Durham police make a decision on Starmer .

    For Starmer he needs Durham to report quickly .

    If he receives a FPN he will have to resign , but do this in a way to cause the most damage to the Tories and Johnson .

    GRAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY, not Grey
    It must be very tiresome for her to write cheques.
This discussion has been closed.