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Johnson an even stronger favourite to survive till 2024 – politicalbetting.com

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  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    NeilVW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Classic Sun headline tomorrow lol! 😂

    And it is? Or a link?
    https://news.sky.com/story/saturdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-12427754
    Are you going to korma quietly, Sir?
    Cops probe Keir’s Covid curry
    Express: It's brilliant for Boris.

    Guardian: It's a disaster for Boris.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 3,961
    The March 2017 NI assembly elections gave 11 DUP firsts an 7 SF and, save Lady Hernon, that reflected exactly at GE 17.

    On that basis, I make it we'd be looking at 10 SF, 5 DUP and 3 Alliance, although some very marginal and subject to FPTP specific tactical voting, at a GE.

    Every little helps, and that'd be 1.5 seats closer to a Labour government, by replacing 3 DUP with 3 abstentions.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486
    GIN1138 said:

    One good thing to come out of partygate and beergate is that I doubt another government will ever dare implement a national lockdown this side of 2100...

    Indeed! Weird to think even of the concept of lockdowns now. Yet not too long ago we were in one, lest we forget.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    GIN1138 said:

    Classic Sun headline tomorrow lol! 😂

    Korma, korma, kormeloen,
    They come and they go
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited May 2022

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486

    Mark Drakeford says its been a good day for Labour in Wales

    Wonder why he has been so successful when SKS has done so poorly outside of London!

    Is Outside London a country now? Is Outside London a secessionist territory of England?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354
    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 8,685

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    Ah.... That's the game...

    I was wondering. After all, if Starmer goes over this, then Johnson either goes as well or looks really really shitty. Neither of which is good.

    But this investigation puts Starmer under a cloud for six weeks. Long enough to get the Met investigation and the Gray report out of the way. And the Greased Piglet escapes again.

    (If the Conservatives really want Starmer out over this, they're putting pleasure before business. Starmer's successor is likely to be a much bigger threat.

    Starmer's job in 2020 was to clean house, bring on the next generation and lose by not too much in 2024, so that a 2029 win was on the cards. If the job spec has changed to a winner for 2024, he's not optimal. The fact that that's an consideration shows how howlingly bad Boris as PM.)
  • TresTres Posts: 1,536

    What's happening in Croydon? Website says zero votes so far.

    Counting the mayoral vote before they start on council seats I heard.

    Incidentally I didn't get elected to the joy of my better half but did see the Independence for Chislehurst movement wipe out the local tories 2k majority. They hope to secede from bromley and reunite with Sidcup and rejoin Kent.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    NeilVW said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Classic Sun headline tomorrow lol! 😂

    And it is? Or a link?
    https://news.sky.com/story/saturdays-national-newspaper-front-pages-12427754
    Are you going to korma quietly, Sir?
    Cops probe Keir’s Covid curry
    ..

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    Someone suggested before that Keir should announce he will resign if he is found guilty of any offences by Durham.

    That seems a decent strategy given this deranged new six week delay which seems designed *specifically* to give Boris wriggle room.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    Ah.... That's the game...

    I was wondering. After all, if Starmer goes over this, then Johnson either goes as well or looks really really shitty. Neither of which is good.

    But this investigation puts Starmer under a cloud for six weeks. Long enough to get the Met investigation and the Gray report out of the way. And the Greased Piglet escapes again.

    (If the Conservatives really want Starmer out over this, they're putting pleasure before business. Starmer's successor is likely to be a much bigger threat.

    Starmer's job in 2020 was to clean house, bring on the next generation and lose by not too much in 2024, so that a 2029 win was on the cards. If the job spec has changed to a winner for 2024, he's not optimal. The fact that that's an consideration shows how howlingly bad Boris as PM.)
    We may be in a unique position - both parties now want to keep the other party's leader in place despite their law breaking over covid because the replacements would do better.

    :lol:
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,570

    GIN1138 said:

    One good thing to come out of partygate and beergate is that I doubt another government will ever dare implement a national lockdown this side of 2100...

    Indeed! Weird to think even of the concept of lockdowns now. Yet not too long ago we were in one, lest we forget.
    Spent the day officiating at our uni catch up graduations (2020 and 2021 cohort). A few masks in evidence, but not many. Joyous to see the graduates finally getting their ceremonies and their families/friends celebrating. And the ons shows stocking falls in prevalence, just as happened in Denmark.
    Summer 2022 looking more hopeful. Just need Putin to come to his senses and stop fighting a pointless war.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 43,011

    Mark Drakeford says its been a good day for Labour in Wales

    Wonder why he has been so successful when SKS has done so poorly outside of London!

    Wales is OUTSIDE of London :lol:
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    "Does not look like the opposition break through that takes them to governement" - Nick Watt on Labour
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    Pro_Rata said:

    The March 2017 NI assembly elections gave 11 DUP firsts an 7 SF and, save Lady Hernon, that reflected exactly at GE 17.

    On that basis, I make it we'd be looking at 10 SF, 5 DUP and 3 Alliance, although some very marginal and subject to FPTP specific tactical voting, at a GE.

    Every little helps, and that'd be 1.5 seats closer to a Labour government, by replacing 3 DUP with 3 abstentions.

    Personally am NOT sure that historic Sinn Fein position of absentionism re: British Parliament is good for all eternity.

    After all, they've already swallowed joining the Northern Ireland Assembly. My guess is that, the votes they'd lose by entering Westminster would likely be MORE than offset, by votes they'd gain on the other end. Esp. since they'd then have the greatest theater in the world in which to enact whatever agitprop and/or serious messaging - regardless of whether or not their votes were propping up the government or not.

    A bridge tooooo far? Farther even that the Boris Bridge! BUT stranger things happen in & from Hibernia.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited May 2022
    The Welsh Conservatives lost 43% of the seats they were defending.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,570

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    I posted up thread what the allegation is. It looks like they crossed the line from getting food during work into a late night social. No real crime except in the bizarre Covid world where you still couldn’t gather inside with people outside your household. At least one labour aide has admitted that they would have been fined if Durham police had not initially declined to investigate.
    We’ll see. If, and it’s a big if, Starmer does get a FPN, it takes the wind from his sails a touch. Anyway, time to move onto the col crisis, something far more important.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Someone suggested before that Keir should announce he will resign if he is found guilty of any offences by Durham.

    That seems a decent strategy given this deranged new six week delay which seems designed *specifically* to give Boris wriggle room.

    Yet Labour would be delighted if in six weeks Johnson is still their opponent.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,663

    Mark Drakeford says its been a good day for Labour in Wales

    Wonder why he has been so successful when SKS has done so poorly outside of London!

    Is Outside London a country now? Is Outside London a secessionist territory of England?
    London isn’t a real place, and it’s people aren’t real people. Nothing that anyone in London thinks matters electorally, or at least that’s the theory.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354
    edited May 2022

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited May 2022

    "Does not look like the opposition break through that takes them to governement" - Nick Watt on Labour

    It’s not.

    And it’s a failure of Labour expectation management that it was thought that it might, since polling never suggested it would be.

    What we’ve seen is a strong anti-Tory vote and significant Tory abstention. The winners have been any available non-Tory, but not especially the Labour Party.

    There’s enough there to suggest at least a hung parliament, but that’s not good enough. Paradoxically, to win, Keir needs to voters to believe he will NOT be reliant on the SNP.

    Keir has continued to surprise me, but I still don’t think he’s got it in him.
  • pingping Posts: 3,297
    edited May 2022
    Newcastle under Lyme is interesting.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,907

    I think Plaid Cymru had the the best election.

    They made a net loss of 9 councillors.

    But, they gained control of three new councils (Ynys Mon, Ceredigion, Sir Gaerfyrddin) -- as well as increasing their majority on Gwynedd.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,570

    "Does not look like the opposition break through that takes them to governement" - Nick Watt on Labour

    It’s not.

    And it’s a failure of Labour expectation management that it was thought that it might, since polling never suggested it would be.

    What we’ve seen is a strong anti-Tory vote and significant Tory abstention. The winners have been any available non-Tory, but not especially the Labour Party.

    There’s enough there to suggest at least a hung parliament, but that’s not good enough. Paradoxically, to win, Keir needs to voters to believe he will NOT be reliant on the SNP.

    Keir has continued to surprise me, but I still don’t think he’s got it in him.
    Starmer needs a vision of Britain to take into the next election. Just, ‘were not them’, isn’t enough. What does he believe in? How will he increase British productivity? Build more homes? Sort the refugee crisis? Fund healthcare? Sort social care? And so on. It’s reasonable to not put your policies out this far from the expected election, but I hope they are working on them.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    STRANGFORD - count 7 concluded; count 6 elected DUPer Harry Harvey, and HIS surplus has just been redistributed. Leaving UUPer Nesbit just -340 shy of quota, and over 400 ahead of the TUVer. Below them are SDLP candidate just 46 votes ahead of the last-place Allianceite (?) who has been eliminated. These vote should boost the SDLPer considerably BUT will it be enough to beat out the TUVer for the 5th and last seat?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 20,050

    Someone suggested before that Keir should announce he will resign if he is found guilty of any offences by Durham.

    That seems a decent strategy given this deranged new six week delay which seems designed *specifically* to give Boris wriggle room.

    Nah, puts tactics before strategy. He can't determine whether he'll get a FPN or not. If he does, he pays up - it's embarassing, but he's not lied to Parliament. If he doesn't fine. Either way nobody's going to care in 2024.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    Took the Met long enough to decide seven minutes singing happy birthday without food or drink was worthy of a FPN. Several hours with booze and food might take a while. ;)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Starmer's problem is the beer.

    Photo of beer in hand laughing.

    If you throw a beer into the mix then it is no longer a "work" situation in most people's reckoning in this country - it has just become a social event.

    My father worked in germany in engineering in late 60s in defence industry and the germans would sit at their desks drawing diagrams with a beer in hand he says. Different culture.

    But that is not the UK view.

  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    Tres said:

    What's happening in Croydon? Website says zero votes so far.

    Counting the mayoral vote before they start on council seats I heard.

    Incidentally I didn't get elected to the joy of my better half but did see the Independence for Chislehurst movement wipe out the local tories 2k majority. They hope to secede from bromley and reunite with Sidcup and rejoin Kent.
    Croydon didn't start counting ANYTHING until 5pm Friday
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,570

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    Who are you implying is crooked? The police? You are accusing them of political bias?
    I think they did not handle the “purdah” well. They could have announced that they were investigating and would not comment further. They chose not to do so, and briefed somewhat misleadingly about it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited May 2022

    "Does not look like the opposition break through that takes them to governement" - Nick Watt on Labour

    It’s not.

    And it’s a failure of Labour expectation management that it was thought that it might, since polling never suggested it would be.

    What we’ve seen is a strong anti-Tory vote and significant Tory abstention. The winners have been any available non-Tory, but not especially the Labour Party.

    There’s enough there to suggest at least a hung parliament, but that’s not good enough. Paradoxically, to win, Keir needs to voters to believe he will NOT be reliant on the SNP.

    Keir has continued to surprise me, but I still don’t think he’s got it in him.
    Starmer needs a vision of Britain to take into the next election. Just, ‘were not them’, isn’t enough. What does he believe in? How will he increase British productivity? Build more homes? Sort the refugee crisis? Fund healthcare? Sort social care? And so on. It’s reasonable to not put your policies out this far from the expected election, but I hope they are working on them.
    I still have some sympathy with the idea that it’s too early for policy.

    But I think Keir is failing to paint the right narrative about Labour today, that it is (or should be) a national project to make life better for working people.

    Or something like that.

    Labour still smell like - and are easily attacked as - a metropolitan project for various do-gooders. Less harmless than before, sure, but still not especially appealing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    You have been naive at best in your attempts to bat this away, but Durham detectives are following the same procedures as the MET which is a written process no doubt with legal advice and as I understand it the questionnaires themselves are required to be returned in 28 days
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,570

    "Does not look like the opposition break through that takes them to governement" - Nick Watt on Labour

    It’s not.

    And it’s a failure of Labour expectation management that it was thought that it might, since polling never suggested it would be.

    What we’ve seen is a strong anti-Tory vote and significant Tory abstention. The winners have been any available non-Tory, but not especially the Labour Party.

    There’s enough there to suggest at least a hung parliament, but that’s not good enough. Paradoxically, to win, Keir needs to voters to believe he will NOT be reliant on the SNP.

    Keir has continued to surprise me, but I still don’t think he’s got it in him.
    Starmer needs a vision of Britain to take into the next election. Just, ‘were not them’, isn’t enough. What does he believe in? How will he increase British productivity? Build more homes? Sort the refugee crisis? Fund healthcare? Sort social care? And so on. It’s reasonable to not put your policies out this far from the expected election, but I hope they are working on them.
    I still have some sympathy with the idea that it’s too early for policy.

    But I think Keir is failing to paint the right narrative about Labour today, that it is (or should be) a national project to make life better for working people.

    Or something like that.

    Labour still smell like - and are easily attacked as - a metropolitan project for various do-gooders. Less harmless than before, sure, but still not especially appealing.
    Yes, totally agree. The disconnect is between cities (labour) and towns (conservative). I want to know what Starmer wants to do in power. I hope he is not Brown Mark 2. Brown spent so long getting to the top he had nothing left when he reached it.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    Who are you implying is crooked? The police? You are accusing them of political bias?
    I think they did not handle the “purdah” well. They could have announced that they were investigating and would not comment further. They chose not to do so, and briefed somewhat misleadingly about it.
    Perhaps crooked is too strong.

    But they are mishandling the whole process, and are doing so under sustained pressure that was cooked up by Tory Party propagandists.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    Who are you implying is crooked? The police? You are accusing them of political bias?
    I think they did not handle the “purdah” well. They could have announced that they were investigating and would not comment further. They chose not to do so, and briefed somewhat misleadingly about it.
    Perhaps crooked is too strong.

    But they are mishandling the whole process, and are doing so under sustained pressure that was cooked up by Tory Party propagandists.
    Do you remember the pressure the Met were under? They were even sued to try to force them to investigate goings on in No 10.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,570

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    Who are you implying is crooked? The police? You are accusing them of political bias?
    I think they did not handle the “purdah” well. They could have announced that they were investigating and would not comment further. They chose not to do so, and briefed somewhat misleadingly about it.
    Perhaps crooked is too strong.

    But they are mishandling the whole process, and are doing so under sustained pressure that was cooked up by Tory Party propagandists.
    Yes, that a more reasonable characterisation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
    I think worse, he demanded Sunak goes, even though it seems Sunak turned up early to a meeting in a cabinet room and a piece of cake was thrust into his hand.

    If that is a resigning offence then I can't see how Starmer's beer is not.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
    I think worse, he demanded Sunak goes, even though it seems Sunak turned up early to a meeting in a cabinet room and a piece of cake was thrust into his hand.

    If that is a resigning offence then I can't see how Starmer's beer is not.

    What the Met were thinking when they gave him an FPN for that is beyond me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    22m
    Often the way. Takes almost 24 hours for the true picture to emerge with local elections. Properly dire set of results for the Tories.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,570
    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
    I think worse, he demanded Sunak goes, even though it seems Sunak turned up early to a meeting in a cabinet room and a piece of cake was thrust into his hand.

    If that is a resigning offence then I can't see how Starmer's beer is not.

    What the Met were thinking when they gave him an FPN for that is beyond me.
    That’s easy. The ‘event’ was deemed illegal, therefore anyone there was guilty, no matter how long they were there.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    East Antrim declared = 1 UUP, 2 Alliance, 2 DUP; first constituency finished in NI

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
    I think worse, he demanded Sunak goes, even though it seems Sunak turned up early to a meeting in a cabinet room and a piece of cake was thrust into his hand.

    If that is a resigning offence then I can't see how Starmer's beer is not.

    What the Met were thinking when they gave him an FPN for that is beyond me.
    That’s easy. The ‘event’ was deemed illegal, therefore anyone there was guilty, no matter how long they were there.
    But he was present but not involved.

    :smiley:
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited May 2022

    "Does not look like the opposition break through that takes them to governement" - Nick Watt on Labour

    It’s not.

    And it’s a failure of Labour expectation management that it was thought that it might, since polling never suggested it would be.

    What we’ve seen is a strong anti-Tory vote and significant Tory abstention. The winners have been any available non-Tory, but not especially the Labour Party.

    There’s enough there to suggest at least a hung parliament, but that’s not good enough. Paradoxically, to win, Keir needs to voters to believe he will NOT be reliant on the SNP.

    Keir has continued to surprise me, but I still don’t think he’s got it in him.
    Starmer needs a vision of Britain to take into the next election. Just, ‘were not them’, isn’t enough. What does he believe in? How will he increase British productivity? Build more homes? Sort the refugee crisis? Fund healthcare? Sort social care? And so on. It’s reasonable to not put your policies out this far from the expected election, but I hope they are working on them.
    I still have some sympathy with the idea that it’s too early for policy.

    But I think Keir is failing to paint the right narrative about Labour today, that it is (or should be) a national project to make life better for working people.

    Or something like that.

    Labour still smell like - and are easily attacked as - a metropolitan project for various do-gooders. Less harmless than before, sure, but still not especially appealing.
    Yes, totally agree. The disconnect is between cities (labour) and towns (conservative). I want to know what Starmer wants to do in power. I hope he is not Brown Mark 2. Brown spent so long getting to the top he had nothing left when he reached it.
    I am not a Labour voter.
    I am not a Keir fan.

    But I am desperate to see them win because I think Boris and the Tories have driven the country into a swamp of corruption of economic mismanagement.

    Personally I fear you are right about the Brown analogy. I don’t get the sense that Labour is that interested in policy (even accounting for rational forebearance at this point in the cycle).

    The only person pumping out interesting policy ideas is Tony Blair via his Institute but I don’t see it picked up by Labour types on Twitter.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
    I think worse, he demanded Sunak goes, even though it seems Sunak turned up early to a meeting in a cabinet room and a piece of cake was thrust into his hand.

    If that is a resigning offence then I can't see how Starmer's beer is not.

    What the Met were thinking when they gave him an FPN for that is beyond me.
    To be honest I feel for the police seeing as the rules were basically ridiculously impossible to be sure about and frankly ludicrous. Two lasses got fined for taking a coffee for a walk in Derbyshire.

    I mean, how many people who missed their relatives funeral or could not hold their dying sister's hand at the hospice would now go back and say 'sod it, family is more important' knowing the worse was a FPN and anyway the chief rule makers were all on the lash during the whole crisis?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,570

    "Does not look like the opposition break through that takes them to governement" - Nick Watt on Labour

    It’s not.

    And it’s a failure of Labour expectation management that it was thought that it might, since polling never suggested it would be.

    What we’ve seen is a strong anti-Tory vote and significant Tory abstention. The winners have been any available non-Tory, but not especially the Labour Party.

    There’s enough there to suggest at least a hung parliament, but that’s not good enough. Paradoxically, to win, Keir needs to voters to believe he will NOT be reliant on the SNP.

    Keir has continued to surprise me, but I still don’t think he’s got it in him.
    Starmer needs a vision of Britain to take into the next election. Just, ‘were not them’, isn’t enough. What does he believe in? How will he increase British productivity? Build more homes? Sort the refugee crisis? Fund healthcare? Sort social care? And so on. It’s reasonable to not put your policies out this far from the expected election, but I hope they are working on them.
    I still have some sympathy with the idea that it’s too early for policy.

    But I think Keir is failing to paint the right narrative about Labour today, that it is (or should be) a national project to make life better for working people.

    Or something like that.

    Labour still smell like - and are easily attacked as - a metropolitan project for various do-gooders. Less harmless than before, sure, but still not especially appealing.
    Yes, totally agree. The disconnect is between cities (labour) and towns (conservative). I want to know what Starmer wants to do in power. I hope he is not Brown Mark 2. Brown spent so long getting to the top he had nothing left when he reached it.
    I am not a Labour voter.
    I am not a Keir fan.

    But I am desperate to see them win because I think Boris and the Tories have driven the country into a swamp of corruption of economic mismanagement.

    Personally I fear you are right about the Brown analogy. I don’t get the sense that Labour is that interested in policy (even accounting for rational forebearance at this point in the cycle).

    The only person pumping out interesting policy ideas is Tony Blair via his Institute but I don’t see it picked up by Labour types on Twitter.
    The country desperately needs a change, it’s just that Starmer may not be the driving force that’s needed.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
    I think worse, he demanded Sunak goes, even though it seems Sunak turned up early to a meeting in a cabinet room and a piece of cake was thrust into his hand.

    If that is a resigning offence then I can't see how Starmer's beer is not.

    Yes, the charge against Starmer is not "breech of ill drawn up and probably unnecessarily draconian regulations" but "hypocrisy" for demanding of others something he doesn't think should apply to himself. "One rule for them, another for the rest of us" as someone never tires of piously intoning.....
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
    I think worse, he demanded Sunak goes, even though it seems Sunak turned up early to a meeting in a cabinet room and a piece of cake was thrust into his hand.

    If that is a resigning offence then I can't see how Starmer's beer is not.

    What the Met were thinking when they gave him an FPN for that is beyond me.
    That’s easy. The ‘event’ was deemed illegal, therefore anyone there was guilty, no matter how long they were there.
    Based on regulations promulgated with great fanfare by . . . who was it?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    RobD said:

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    Who are you implying is crooked? The police? You are accusing them of political bias?
    I think they did not handle the “purdah” well. They could have announced that they were investigating and would not comment further. They chose not to do so, and briefed somewhat misleadingly about it.
    Perhaps crooked is too strong.

    But they are mishandling the whole process, and are doing so under sustained pressure that was cooked up by Tory Party propagandists.
    Do you remember the pressure the Met were under? They were even sued to try to force them to investigate goings on in No 10.
    Yes and quite right as there was decent evidence of serial flaunting of Covid rules at the heart of No.10.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Starmer having to resign is Labour's best outcome for this local election week.

    Discuss. :smiley:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    RobD said:

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    Who are you implying is crooked? The police? You are accusing them of political bias?
    I think they did not handle the “purdah” well. They could have announced that they were investigating and would not comment further. They chose not to do so, and briefed somewhat misleadingly about it.
    Perhaps crooked is too strong.

    But they are mishandling the whole process, and are doing so under sustained pressure that was cooked up by Tory Party propagandists.
    Do you remember the pressure the Met were under? They were even sued to try to force them to investigate goings on in No 10.
    Yes and quite right as there was decent evidence of serial flaunting of Covid rules at the heart of No.10.
    This was when there was just the photo in the garden. Not too dissimilar from the photo of Starmer. What we know now is irrelevant, they were under pressure then to investigate.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 11,570

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
    I think worse, he demanded Sunak goes, even though it seems Sunak turned up early to a meeting in a cabinet room and a piece of cake was thrust into his hand.

    If that is a resigning offence then I can't see how Starmer's beer is not.

    What the Met were thinking when they gave him an FPN for that is beyond me.
    To be honest I feel for the police seeing as the rules were basically ridiculously impossible to be sure about and frankly ludicrous. Two lasses got fined for taking a coffee for a walk in Derbyshire.

    I mean, how many people who missed their relatives funeral or could not hold their dying sister's hand at the hospice would now go back and say 'sod it, family is more important' knowing the worse was a FPN and anyway the chief rule makers were all on the lash during the whole crisis?
    Which is why I would grant am amnesty to ALL who fined and reimburse them. The rules were well intentioned, but ridiculous. And the police in many instances failed to cover themselves in glory.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Starmer's problem is the beer.

    Photo of beer in hand laughing.

    If you throw a beer into the mix then it is no longer a "work" situation in most people's reckoning in this country - it has just become a social event.

    My father worked in germany in engineering in late 60s in defence industry and the germans would sit at their desks drawing diagrams with a beer in hand he says. Different culture.

    But that is not the UK view.

    Really? Lots of people drink at work here, from time to time. Particularly when working a long day. It’s not as rare as you imply.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    3 councils still counting:

    Tower Hamlets
    Croydon
    Vale of Glamorgan
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    RobD said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
    I think worse, he demanded Sunak goes, even though it seems Sunak turned up early to a meeting in a cabinet room and a piece of cake was thrust into his hand.

    If that is a resigning offence then I can't see how Starmer's beer is not.

    What the Met were thinking when they gave him an FPN for that is beyond me.
    To be honest I feel for the police seeing as the rules were basically ridiculously impossible to be sure about and frankly ludicrous. Two lasses got fined for taking a coffee for a walk in Derbyshire.

    I mean, how many people who missed their relatives funeral or could not hold their dying sister's hand at the hospice would now go back and say 'sod it, family is more important' knowing the worse was a FPN and anyway the chief rule makers were all on the lash during the whole crisis?
    Which is why I would grant am amnesty to ALL who fined and reimburse them. The rules were well intentioned, but ridiculous. And the police in many instances failed to cover themselves in glory.
    But now they can't do that, because it would look like they want to avoid punishments for themselves.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 11,244
    edited May 2022
    Evening all :)

    My first chance to comment on the local elections - a very strong series of results for the LDs with nearly 200 gains in England. The victories in Gosport, Somerset, Hull and Woking very much the big prizes but plenty of other encouraging results such as St Albans.

    In London, the three Councils were all held with big majorities in Richmond and Kingston and control retained in Sutton. Big progress in Merton and nice to see the party back on Bromley with five new Councillors.

    London, as ever, produced a varied collection of results. The Conservatives lost Westminster, Barnet and Wandsworth but won Harrow from Labour. Progress also for the Greens who ended Labour's monopoly in Newham and won seats elsewhere.

    My final observation for now is no one needs to create or organise anti-Conservative electoral pacts - the electorate will work it out for themselves. Whether the beneficiary is Labour, LD, Green or Independents/Residents, local voters can quickly work out which option fulfils the objective of giving the local Conservative a real kicking and if there's no Conservative, the local council itself is in the firing line.

    Final final thought, the 2023 round will be the same as those from 2019 when the Conservatives were Knopflered (in dire straits) losing 1,300 seats but still winning 3,500. The LDs gained 700 in a night but that means a lot to defend and it seems implausible even now we can see further widespread Conservative losses.

    Final x 3 thought - only Runnymede and Reigate & Banstead of the Borough/District Councils in Surrey remain in Conservative control. The other nine are all controlled by various coalitions of LDs, Residents and other Independents.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741
    Italy has detained "Putin's yacht" the Scheherazade. The late night announcement comes two days after the New York Times (@gaia_pianigiani and me) wrote about how the $700 million yacht was getting ready to set sail, avoiding sanctions.


    https://twitter.com/PekingMike/status/1522673932226158595
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
    I think worse, he demanded Sunak goes, even though it seems Sunak turned up early to a meeting in a cabinet room and a piece of cake was thrust into his hand.

    If that is a resigning offence then I can't see how Starmer's beer is not.

    Yes, the charge against Starmer is not "breech of ill drawn up and probably unnecessarily draconian regulations" but "hypocrisy" for demanding of others something he doesn't think should apply to himself. "One rule for them, another for the rest of us" as someone never tires of piously intoning.....
    Have you got any evidence for this idea that Keir thinks the rules don’t apply to him?

    As I keep maintaining, I am not a fan of his, but I think these attacks against him are made with poisonous bad faith.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 43,011
    Andy_JS said:

    3 councils still counting:

    Tower Hamlets
    Croydon
    Vale of Glamorgan

    Slackers!!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    Ah.... That's the game...

    I was wondering. After all, if Starmer goes over this, then Johnson either goes as well or looks really really shitty. Neither of which is good.

    But this investigation puts Starmer under a cloud for six weeks. Long enough to get the Met investigation and the Gray report out of the way. And the Greased Piglet escapes again.

    (If the Conservatives really want Starmer out over this, they're putting pleasure before business. Starmer's successor is likely to be a much bigger threat.

    Starmer's job in 2020 was to clean house, bring on the next generation and lose by not too much in 2024, so that a 2029 win was on the cards. If the job spec has changed to a winner for 2024, he's not optimal. The fact that that's an consideration shows how howlingly bad Boris as PM.)
    We may be in a unique position - both parties now want to keep the other party's leader in place despite their law breaking over covid because the replacements would do better.

    :lol:
    People joke about that but I don't think they believe it deep down. You can never be sure even a crap leader would not be replaced by someone even worse, and whilst it would be a risk, being able to take down your opponent is a power move. It means you are setting the narrative, you are driving things, and have achieved something. That's worth more than 'Oh, let's not take him down too much, next person would be better'.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    Who are you implying is crooked? The police? You are accusing them of political bias?
    I think they did not handle the “purdah” well. They could have announced that they were investigating and would not comment further. They chose not to do so, and briefed somewhat misleadingly about it.
    Perhaps crooked is too strong.

    But they are mishandling the whole process, and are doing so under sustained pressure that was cooked up by Tory Party propagandists.
    Do you remember the pressure the Met were under? They were even sued to try to force them to investigate goings on in No 10.
    Yes and quite right as there was decent evidence of serial flaunting of Covid rules at the heart of No.10.
    This was when there was just the photo in the garden. Not too dissimilar from the photo of Starmer. What we know now is irrelevant, they were under pressure then to investigate.
    No, there was various tidbits leaked in the papers of several different events.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 19,093
    edited May 2022

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God man go".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 8,685
    edited May 2022

    "Does not look like the opposition break through that takes them to governement" - Nick Watt on Labour

    It’s not.

    And it’s a failure of Labour expectation management that it was thought that it might, since polling never suggested it would be.

    What we’ve seen is a strong anti-Tory vote and significant Tory abstention. The winners have been any available non-Tory, but not especially the Labour Party.

    There’s enough there to suggest at least a hung parliament, but that’s not good enough. Paradoxically, to win, Keir needs to voters to believe he will NOT be reliant on the SNP.

    Keir has continued to surprise me, but I still don’t think he’s got it in him.
    Starmer needs a vision of Britain to take into the next election. Just, ‘were not them’, isn’t enough. What does he believe in? How will he increase British productivity? Build more homes? Sort the refugee crisis? Fund healthcare? Sort social care? And so on. It’s reasonable to not put your policies out this far from the expected election, but I hope they are working on them.
    I still have some sympathy with the idea that it’s too early for policy.

    But I think Keir is failing to paint the right narrative about Labour today, that it is (or should be) a national project to make life better for working people.

    Or something like that.

    Labour still smell like - and are easily attacked as - a metropolitan project for various do-gooders. Less harmless than before, sure, but still not especially appealing.
    Yes, totally agree. The disconnect is between cities (labour) and towns (conservative). I want to know what Starmer wants to do in power. I hope he is not Brown Mark 2. Brown spent so long getting to the top he had nothing left when he reached it.
    I am not a Labour voter.
    I am not a Keir fan.

    But I am desperate to see them win because I think Boris and the Tories have driven the country into a swamp of corruption of economic mismanagement.

    Personally I fear you are right about the Brown analogy. I don’t get the sense that Labour is that interested in policy (even accounting for rational forebearance at this point in the cycle).

    The only person pumping out interesting policy ideas is Tony Blair via his Institute but I don’t see it picked up by Labour types on Twitter.
    The country desperately needs a change, it’s just that Starmer may not be the driving force that’s needed.
    He probably isn't the change we really need.

    But Starmer may be the nearest thing on offer, and infinitely preferable to reheated fag end nu-Conservatism with the nasty bits of campaigning turned up to 11.

    And if the answer to "Who runs the country?" is "Not you, Boris", that's all there is to it.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,110

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    Who are you implying is crooked? The police? You are accusing them of political bias?
    I think they did not handle the “purdah” well. They could have announced that they were investigating and would not comment further. They chose not to do so, and briefed somewhat misleadingly about it.
    Perhaps crooked is too strong.

    But they are mishandling the whole process, and are doing so under sustained pressure that was cooked up by Tory Party propagandists.
    Do you remember the pressure the Met were under? They were even sued to try to force them to investigate goings on in No 10.
    Yes and quite right as there was decent evidence of serial flaunting of Covid rules at the heart of No.10.
    This was when there was just the photo in the garden. Not too dissimilar from the photo of Starmer. What we know now is irrelevant, they were under pressure then to investigate.
    No, there was various tidbits leaked in the papers of several different events.
    That doesn't seem like that much difference. We're spoilt by what we know now. Back then it was all about the garden party.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486

    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    22m
    Often the way. Takes almost 24 hours for the true picture to emerge with local elections. Properly dire set of results for the Tories.

    Indeed. I posted first thing this morning that Southern Discomfort - Northern Exposure is not a great look for the Tories. If they start to lose seats in Sussex and Surrey, then they are increasingly reliant on a limited number of anti-woke socialists in former coalfields seats.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    edited May 2022
    Keir Starmer is a crap political campaigner who is also an honest man (perhaps some connection?) who cannot help but look guilty as sin when caught with his monthly beer in hand.

    Boris Johnson is a superb political campaigner (albeit less-than-stellar governator) who is a crooked as a country road but who can brazen it out with a fridge full of wine slung over his shoulder.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 25,298
    We are nowhere near a Labour majority government.
    But we are still some way from a re-elected majority.
    That's my take.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,912
    Tories have a narrow lead in Croydon Mayoralty. Could be overtaken on 2nd prefs, hard to judge.

    https://twitter.com/DaveHill/status/1522697693105119234
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,823

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    No one should resign for an FPN.

    Lying to Parliament used to be considered a resigning matter though.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,486

    Starmer having to resign is Labour's best outcome for this local election week.

    Discuss. :smiley:

    Yes, Reeves (or Phillpson) would ascend to the leadership, and would be popular.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,272
    edited May 2022

    Pro_Rata said:

    The March 2017 NI assembly elections gave 11 DUP firsts an 7 SF and, save Lady Hernon, that reflected exactly at GE 17.

    On that basis, I make it we'd be looking at 10 SF, 5 DUP and 3 Alliance, although some very marginal and subject to FPTP specific tactical voting, at a GE.

    Every little helps, and that'd be 1.5 seats closer to a Labour government, by replacing 3 DUP with 3 abstentions.

    Personally am NOT sure that historic Sinn Fein position of absentionism re: British Parliament is good for all eternity.

    After all, they've already swallowed joining the Northern Ireland Assembly. My guess is that, the votes they'd lose by entering Westminster would likely be MORE than offset, by votes they'd gain on the other end. Esp. since they'd then have the greatest theater in the world in which to enact whatever agitprop and/or serious messaging - regardless of whether or not their votes were propping up the government or not.

    A bridge tooooo far? Farther even that the Boris Bridge! BUT stranger things happen in & from Hibernia.
    Well, the thing to remember is that to them, the main prize is to win in the Dáil, ideally an overall majority, which can't be excluded right now. The UK Parliament is not any kind of great theatre that helps with this. Actually, it hurts, and even being in the NI Executive and local councils hurts a little. It means they immediately commit to taking positions on mainstream government issues like housing and economics, and those positions get thrown back in their faces in the south, where they are promising to be a radical cleansing opposition. E.g., it is hard to both support redevelopment in Belfast and be an anti-investment NIMBY throwing out the property investors in Dublin. Anyway, it's no fun to be like the DUP or SDLP with a handful of MPs, talking to 632 people who largely think you are bigoted foreigners with funny accents. (Edit, note that if it were worth while, they probably would have broken abstentionism on Brexit, not out of principle as such but to increase tensions in the UK.)
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,423
    edited May 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    3 councils still counting:

    Tower Hamlets
    Croydon
    Vale of Glamorgan

    Slackers!!
    Tower Hamlets is apparently scheduled to count its council election tomorrow, because today it was just the mayoral election.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited May 2022

    Starmer having to resign is Labour's best outcome for this local election week.

    Discuss. :smiley:

    Yes, Reeves (or Phillpson) would ascend to the leadership, and would be popular.
    NANDY

    Reeves is Keir in a dress.
    Philipson untested to any great extent.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    My final observation for now is no one needs to create or organise anti-Conservative electoral pacts - the electorate will work it out for themselves. Whether the beneficiary is Labour, LD, Green or Independents/Residents, local voters can quickly work out which option fulfils the objective of giving the local Conservative a real kicking . . . .

    Worth repeating.

  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    The PM should resign for lying to Parliament.
    It’s not hard, Big G.
    I have called for Boris to go many times, but Starmer made the idiotic call for Boris to go when it was announced he was being investigated by the MET police and is now compromised by his own demands
    I think worse, he demanded Sunak goes, even though it seems Sunak turned up early to a meeting in a cabinet room and a piece of cake was thrust into his hand.

    If that is a resigning offence then I can't see how Starmer's beer is not.

    Yes, the charge against Starmer is not "breech of ill drawn up and probably unnecessarily draconian regulations" but "hypocrisy" for demanding of others something he doesn't think should apply to himself. "One rule for them, another for the rest of us" as someone never tires of piously intoning.....
    Have you got any evidence for this idea that Keir thinks the rules don’t apply to him?

    As I keep maintaining, I am not a fan of his, but I think these attacks against him are made with poisonous bad faith.
    This is v tricky for Labour.

    In the week after the Met police announced their partygate investigation both Rayner and Starmer called for Boris Johnson to resign.

    So what do they say now?

    (HT @DominicPenna for uncovering)


    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1522573836843208704
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816
    This has to be the most hilarious take on the election results, but then it is the Daily Express

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/1522683601913057282
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    CatMan said:

    This has to be the most hilarious take on the election results, but then it is the Daily Express

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/1522683601913057282

    It's hilarious mostly because it plays into Boris's opponents unintentionally, by telling all those moving away from him in the South 'You're right, Boris only cares about the Red Wall, not you'.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Starmer having to resign is Labour's best outcome for this local election week.

    Discuss. :smiley:

    Yes, Reeves (or Phillpson) would ascend to the leadership, and would be popular.
    NANDY

    Reeves is Keir in a dress.
    Philipson untested to any great extent.
    I agree Nandy is looking like top choice. I have no idea about Philipson other than there seem to be noises from Labour that she is the future.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    3 councils still counting:

    Tower Hamlets
    Croydon
    Vale of Glamorgan

    Slackers!!
    Tower Hamlets is apparently scheduled to count its council election tomorrow, because today it was just the mayoral election.
    Which is ridiculous as everyone else can manage it, but Tower Hamlets has been a real shambles before (sure to improve now they have a proven crook and liar at their head again) that clearly they take no chances.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567

    stodge said:

    Evening all :)

    My final observation for now is no one needs to create or organise anti-Conservative electoral pacts - the electorate will work it out for themselves. Whether the beneficiary is Labour, LD, Green or Independents/Residents, local voters can quickly work out which option fulfils the objective of giving the local Conservative a real kicking . . . .

    Worth repeating.

    There can be nudges, but as with many things less is more. Lead people to see it is the most effective approach, but demanding it looks desperate and gets peoples' backs up.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,640
    Would Starmer have gone after Johnson in such a way if he thought he himself had broken the rules .

    The beergate clip was out there already .

    Would he be that stupid ?

  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 36,823
    edited May 2022
    CatMan said:

    This has to be the most hilarious take on the election results, but then it is the Daily Express

    https://twitter.com/Daily_Express/status/1522683601913057282

    Another few victories like this and there wont be any Tory councillors at all to give Santa Boris any stick.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,354
    nico679 said:

    Would Starmer have gone after Johnson in such a way if he thought he himself had broken the rules .

    The beergate clip was out there already .

    Would he be that stupid ?

    Naive maybe
  • Look Keir is a highly regarded lawyer. If he’s fucked this up his whole career is in tatters.

    I maintain he will be fine
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 82,567
    edited May 2022
    He's overseen a terrible result, which sure may be largely to do with others, but he decided to throw his full weight behind those others rather than be his own man. Even if that would have been a futile effort we'll never know, as he decided to grab ankle and lack even courage of his convictions.

    So what purpose does he serve by staying on?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    22m
    Often the way. Takes almost 24 hours for the true picture to emerge with local elections. Properly dire set of results for the Tories.

    Indeed. I posted first thing this morning that Southern Discomfort - Northern Exposure is not a great look for the Tories. If they start to lose seats in Sussex and Surrey, then they are increasingly reliant on a limited number of anti-woke socialists in former coalfields seats.
    And if the ex coalfields of the north find out they are utterly fecked thanks to the economic inflation and supply chain and jobs crisis about to hit us all will they give a f about anti-woke issues?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,643
    edited May 2022

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.

    Edit: the independent councillor seems to be vigorously anti-Labour, judging by his twitter feed.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 43,344

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    Starmer's problem wouldn't be the FPN in itself but the hypocrisy and being caught out playing politics over the pandemic. Arguably he deserves his comeuppance after going on about the "Johnson variant".
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 107,348

    Iain Martin
    @iainmartin1
    ·
    22m
    Often the way. Takes almost 24 hours for the true picture to emerge with local elections. Properly dire set of results for the Tories.

    Indeed. I posted first thing this morning that Southern Discomfort - Northern Exposure is not a great look for the Tories. If they start to lose seats in Sussex and Surrey, then they are increasingly reliant on a limited number of anti-woke socialists in former coalfields seats.
    And if the ex coalfields of the north find out they are utterly fecked thanks to the economic inflation and supply chain and jobs crisis about to hit us all will they give a f about anti-woke issues?
    Well that is a problem all parties will have to grapple with
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,741
    edited May 2022

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.
    frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3913090/#Comment_3913090
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 1,816
    F1: Mercedes looking like they've improved after FP2. Still porpoising, but maybe not as much. Of course it could all be an illusion and by qualifying they'll be crap again
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 11,082
    EPG said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    The March 2017 NI assembly elections gave 11 DUP firsts an 7 SF and, save Lady Hernon, that reflected exactly at GE 17.

    On that basis, I make it we'd be looking at 10 SF, 5 DUP and 3 Alliance, although some very marginal and subject to FPTP specific tactical voting, at a GE.

    Every little helps, and that'd be 1.5 seats closer to a Labour government, by replacing 3 DUP with 3 abstentions.

    Personally am NOT sure that historic Sinn Fein position of absentionism re: British Parliament is good for all eternity.

    After all, they've already swallowed joining the Northern Ireland Assembly. My guess is that, the votes they'd lose by entering Westminster would likely be MORE than offset, by votes they'd gain on the other end. Esp. since they'd then have the greatest theater in the world in which to enact whatever agitprop and/or serious messaging - regardless of whether or not their votes were propping up the government or not.

    A bridge tooooo far? Farther even that the Boris Bridge! BUT stranger things happen in & from Hibernia.
    Well, the thing to remember is that to them, the main prize is to win in the Dáil, ideally an overall majority, which can't be excluded right now. The UK Parliament is not any kind of great theatre that helps with this. Actually, it hurts, and even being in the NI Executive and local councils hurts a little. It means they immediately commit to taking positions on mainstream government issues like housing and economics, and those positions get thrown back in their faces in the south, where they are promising to be a radical cleansing opposition. E.g., it is hard to both support redevelopment in Belfast and be an anti-investment NIMBY throwing out the property investors in Dublin. Anyway, it's no fun to be like the DUP or SDLP with a handful of MPs, talking to 632 people who largely think you are bigoted foreigners with funny accents. (Edit, note that if it were worth while, they probably would have broken abstentionism on Brexit, not out of principle as such but to increase tensions in the UK.)
    Agree that for SF the Dail is the real deal.

    But how does SF get "overall majority' there? Seems a stretch based on current polling? Esp as plenty of swing voters swinging their way will NOT be entirely dependable re: transfers, unlike core SFers.

    Also think that it's possible to do one thing in London, another in Dublin, and a third in Belfast. Esp. for politically-savvy Celts. And happens all the time in USA.

    Plus is increasing tensions in UK really a SF priority THIS millennium? Esp. as Boris and his DisUnionist Party are doing fine all on their own!
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 18,053
    490 Tory losses. Two councils left.
This discussion has been closed.