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Johnson an even stronger favourite to survive till 2024 – politicalbetting.com
Johnson an even stronger favourite to survive till 2024 – politicalbetting.com
Given that after yesterday’s locals the prime minister looks even stronger in his position there has been a marked change in the betting on when he will actually step down.
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Southern tories will not be happy. Look at what has happened in places like Surrey.
We're expecting some shocks there...
from today's Seattle Times ($) commentary by aerospace reporter Dominic Gates:
. . . . Aviation analyst Richard Aboulafia, of Aerodynamic Advisory, said the FAA would have been more impressed by a return to Seattle, signaling a focus on fixing the huge challenges Boeing faces in its major business of making commercial airplanes.
“Boeing’s problem is not with government relations,” he said. “I don’t see doubling down the emphasis on D.C. lobbying as a breakthrough moment. It looks like a recipe for more of the same.”
“Boeing’s pressing need is to restore technical excellence in its most important and neglected business unit, commercial airplanes,” Aboulafia added. “A move back to Seattle would have sent an incredibly powerful message. This is a missed opportunity.”
U.S. Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore., chair of the House Committee on Transportation, agreed, calling the headquarters move to Arlington “another step in the wrong direction.”
“Boeing’s problem isn’t a lack of access to government, but rather its ongoing production problems and the failures of management and the board that led to the fatal crashes of the 737 MAX,” DeFazio said in a statement. “Boeing should focus on making safe airplanes — not lobbying federal regulators and Congress.” . . . .
Easing the decision, which was first reported Thursday morning by The Wall Street Journal, the tax incentives the city of Chicago provided Boeing for going there expired in 2021. . . .
The pandemic’s massive impact on the company’s business has forced Boeing to sell off real estate . . . .
Boeing said that in addition to setting up its global headquarters in Arlington, it also “plans to develop a research & technology hub in the area to harness and attract engineering and technical capabilities.” . . . .
In addition to the Puget Sound region, Boeing now has engineering hubs in North Charleston, South Carolina; St. Louis; Seal Beach, California; as well as India. Its engineering centers in Moscow and Kyiv are currently closed due to the war in Ukraine. . . . .
Boeing’s move to Chicago in 2001 from its historical Seattle location ripped apart the company’s legacy in the Pacific Northwest.
The decision to leave Chicago makes clear that move 21 years ago has proved a major flop.
There was never any real rationale offered for choosing Chicago that made sense for the company’s business. Boeing’s then-CEO, Phil Condit, and its president, Harry Stonecipher, said at the time they wanted the headquarters relocated to a city set apart from Boeing’s main business units. . . . .
The new headquarters quickly was seen as an ivory tower, separated from the realities and complexities of the work that produced the airplanes and the technology that determined the company’s fate. . . . .
Con - 335-340
Lab - 225-230
LD - 20-25
SNP - 40-45
That's with Boris as leader. If the Tories change leadership then I think the Tories could do a lot better, simply because there's a lot of people who voted Tory in 2019 and 2017 but aren't in that Tory column right now but also haven't been won over by Labour. That column of voters has the potential to deliver another Tory landslide that the blue tick wankers on Twitter won't see coming just like 2015.
Independent 503 (won with longest straw)
Labour 503
Tories 501
A type that can often rise high in politics, but who rarely make the top rank. For example, Lord Birkenhead and Sir Stafford Cripps.
They tend to think, what makes sense to lawyers will also make sense to voters. And proceed accordingly . . .
I guess the major source of discrepancy in interpretation of the results is whether they are traditional "mid-term" ones. If they are, then those who are shrugging them off for the Tories definitely have a point. But for me, so much has changed since 2015 that talking about what is happening now in terms of what happened before is a mistake: the Scottish independence referendum, Brexit, Corbyn, covid and a cost of living squeeze that's only just begun have altered the landscape to a huge extent. Politics will be seen very much in terms of pre- and post-2015 in years to come, I reckon. Obviously, I could be totally wrong. It has been known ;-)
Asquith was the dominant lawyer of his day had a good long run at the top where his government made many changes, even if I personally don't rate him among our PMs.
Last electoral tie I saw decided, for county commissioner, after hand recount, was done by flipping a coin (a silver dollar if IIRC). Representative for challenger differed to the incumbent. Who called heads - and heads it was.
BTW, the winner passed away about a week later. As per state law, the remaining two members of the council met to fill the vacancy until the next election (a year later). And they chose NOT the guy who'd tied but lost the coin toss.
The council results point even to a possible SNP strengthening, but it's such a different system that I wouldn't use them to back further advances for the SNP. Stasis for SNP and a few indirect Con->Lab gains looks like the middle outcome right now.
As for Asquith, is that true? I do NOT mean lawyering on the front benches, I mean in the courts.
it won’t be “because Brexit” or “because Boris” it will be because Covid, China, Ukraine, Covid, but voters will still blame the government, as they always do. Labour now look tolerably respectable, but also seriously boring.
I reckon something like Con 280, Labour 260 is the most likely result, with Starmer, probably, forming a fragile Coalition government. Starmer will refuse a Scottish indyref so it will be even more frail than most coalitions. It will probably collapse within the year and Starmer will go back to the country
A couple of things might change this (black swans aside). 1. Somehow voters forgive Boris - but how and why? I reckon Boris has done a sterling job in Ukraine, above and beyond what I expected, and that is the biggest foreign policy crisis of recent times, yet he has got zero credit. I’m not sure what else he could do to regain trust and favour. He feels busted.
Or the Tories could get a new leader. But none of the candidates seem that inspiring on a national level - tho personally I’d be happy with Truss or Mordaunt. Many people would not.
I simply don’t see where the Tory revival comes from
It's not a wholly unrealistic outlook though. In fact that's going to form the basis of my bets for the next few months.
SF 29 (+1.1)
DUP 21.3 (-6.7)
Alliance 13.5 (+4.5)
UUP 11.2 (-1.7)
SDLP 9.1 (-2.9)
So far seats. SF 16. DUP, UUP and Alliance 2 each. SDLP 1. 1 Other (ex-DUP).
So this is looking like a Labour understatement. 'What a difference a day makes.........'
https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1521957860887912448
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqCDCrA4JPs
As long as Labour give the Tories an easy ride on actually having an alternative offering for government the Tories will do a lot better than expected. Throw in a very hostile campaign and targeting to make people think Starmer wants to force boys to wear dresses it will be one of those "omg we didn't see this late swing coming" elections.
Once preferences are included the DUP and UUP and Alliance will pick up a lot more seats
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2022/may/05/elections-2022-results-live-local-council-england-scotland-wales
Much like Covid. Should have done a bit more when we knew something was coming, but when they got into gear they did some very good things.
I like my governments with a little more foresight, but it could have been far worse. A- on Ukraine. I don't think I'm alone in that.
Labour +224 is more than double what others are saying.
On the other hand, Labour might become the party of the Union in Scotland = 10-20 seats, they will also pick up seats in Wales and the North, and the Lib Dems will seize Tory seats in the south, and suddenly the Tory majority is gone. Vanished
🥱 I’m going to turn in. Bye.
In part because he was determined to argue his brief even after the jury - the Great British Public - had rendered their opinion.
ADDENDUM - My point still stands: truly great lawyers make (at best) mediocre politicos. Their downs tending to exceed their ups in the political areana.
Pity about Lutfur Rahman, though!
Edit: Note that the Daily Mail said a loss of 350 of more Tory seats would be a "disaster" (score so far: -344), and a Labour gain over 200 would be a "triumph".
I had a (delightful) lunch with a retired Old Bailey judge last summer in his sunny garden in Burnham on Crouch. Very nice chap, quite a random event
Anyway he said that Starmer was one of the best prosecutors he had seen in his career, if not THE best
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2022/england/results
Meanwhile .. the peace and harmony at Chez JackW has been shattered by the hordes of the dreaded Yellow Peril swamping St Albans City and District taking 47 of the 56 seats with 3 seats to come. At least Fine Pie Production will not fail through shortages !! ..
So I am not at all sure Boris is safe.
The difference is that they probably won't get any west country seats, except possibly St Ives. And their gains will be in the more leafy, prosperous and Remainiac parts of the South East.
I did not vote conservative this time and strangely feel a sense of freedom politically, as I am far removed from the right of the conservative party, want Brexit to work, and seek the safeguarding of the union to which todays results in Scotland and Wales are very encouraging
If the conservative party have any sense they will replace Boris and open a new book, otherwise I think the electorate will give Boris and the conservatives a red card at the next election, and that is usually a three match/election ban !!!!
Therefore- mid term has barely started yet, and it's not obvious that the government can get out of mid term before the clock runs out on them.
http://mygov.elmbridge.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=220&RPID=525122734
Also the Tories held Molesey East by 5 votes over the LDs.
http://mygov.elmbridge.gov.uk/mgElectionAreaResults.aspx?XXR=0&ID=223&RPID=525122734
I'm beginning to think the inquiry into drinks in Durham might turn out to be surprisingly good for Starmer. The contrast with Johnson is stark. The Tories might have made a serious error of judgement. I've never seen anyone who looks less likely to have been partying during lockdown than Starmer
Blair-Brown: cross
Blair: tick
Major: tick, but it didn't help
Thatcher: tick
If a government is in charge of events and on track to win, then to a large extent yes, I reckon.
https://twitter.com/EvangelistMDyal/status/1522646548173185025
Then this judge must have said best “lawyer” in general, which is even more impressive. He had no reason to lie to me
Wilson was iirc the youngest and most brilliant Oxford don in 400 years or some such, but he managed to become a man who represented the white hot aspirational future of booming 60s Britain against the old Etonian grouse shoot brigade.
I just don't see that in Starmer.
1. An alternative leader emerging who at least looks like they could credibly fight an election.
2. Boris deciding if he wants to fight it. Probably tied up with how well he’s doing in the polls in early-mid 2023.
He won't want to risk being the most famous "decapitation" of all time.
Jonn Elledge
@JonnElledge
Would it be the worst thing if Starmer did have to resign? he's not connected with the voters, and there must be at least some possibility the scalp will mean the forever war calms down a bit
Starmer doesn’t frighten the horses. I don’t trust the Labour Party to elect someone sensible. However if he did go and they got it right (coalesced around someone like Reeves or Cooper for instance) then I could see them suddenly surging. If they got it wrong, well, back to 2019 we go.