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Johnson an even stronger favourite to survive till 2024 – politicalbetting.com

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  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,060

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.

    Edit: the independent councillor seems to be vigorously anti-Labour, judging by his twitter feed.
    Corrupt government and smelling very crooked for a start
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,060

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.

    Edit: the independent councillor seems to be vigorously anti-Labour, judging by his twitter feed.
    Most are so why is that relevant
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,605

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.
    frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3913090/#Comment_3913090
    A comment I later clarified.

    I certainly maintain they have mishandled this under the influence of a bad faith media campaign aided and abetted by people like yourself.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 16,605

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.

    Edit: the independent councillor seems to be vigorously anti-Labour, judging by his twitter feed.
    Most are so why is that relevant
    It’s relevant to remind you that “independent” does not mean unbiased.

    You’re on the same side as Nadine Dorries and Jeremy Corbyn on this one, which perhaps should make you think.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    ...and neither should Starmer. He is not cut out to handle an animal like Johnson.
    Johnson is correct, rules do not apply to him. They do apply to Starmer however, which is why the investigation should be enough for his immediate resignation.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,457

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    Starmer's problem wouldn't be the FPN in itself but the hypocrisy and being caught out playing politics over the pandemic. Arguably he deserves his comeuppance after going on about the "Johnson variant".
    Well I think you might be disappointed. I don't believe there's a snowball in Hell's chance they'll find he did anything unlawful and then where will Johnson be?

    The problem is that no one believes Starmer has been partying whereas no one believes Johnson hasn't.

    In a straight race between facts and what the public believe there is only ever one winner.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,060

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.
    frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3913090/#Comment_3913090
    A comment I later clarified.

    I certainly maintain they have mishandled this under the influence of a bad faith media campaign aided and abetted by people like yourself.
    You have been rude and arrogant with me from the start trying to close down the story and I make no apology for seeking fairness in the application of the law between Durham and Met police

    The words 'you protest too much comes to mind'
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446
    RTE 23.28 - Counting is still under way in just four constituencies, with some results expected shortly.

    The constituencies in question are Lagan Valley, South Belfast, Newry and Armgh and South Antrim
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,060

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.

    Edit: the independent councillor seems to be vigorously anti-Labour, judging by his twitter feed.
    Most are so why is that relevant
    It’s relevant to remind you that “independent” does not mean unbiased.

    You’re on the same side as Nadine Dorries and Jeremy Corbyn on this one, which perhaps should make you think.

    You are becoming more ridiculous each time you comment on this subject
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 5,517
    It's a shame we're not still in the EU.
    If we were, we could have summoned Hercule Poirot to investigage Durhamgate.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Look Keir is a highly regarded lawyer. If he’s fucked this up his whole career is in tatters.

    I maintain he will be fine

    When he appeals the FPN and takes it to court things will get v interesting...

    Some two bit middle ranking judge facing the former head of DPP.

    I presume he will defend himself. :smiley:

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,060
    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    Starmer's problem wouldn't be the FPN in itself but the hypocrisy and being caught out playing politics over the pandemic. Arguably he deserves his comeuppance after going on about the "Johnson variant".
    Well I think you might be disappointed. I don't believe there's a snowball in Hell's chance they'll find he did anything unlawful and then where will Johnson be?

    The problem is that no one believes Starmer has been partying whereas no one believes Johnson hasn't.

    In a straight race between facts and what the public believe there is only ever one winner.
    If Starmer and Rayner get FPNs then they will have been the authors of their own demise
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 35,597

    490 Tory losses. Two councils left.

    Not going to reach that half century. Shame!

  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,457

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.
    frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3913090/#Comment_3913090
    It's quite obvious that they have caved into pressure whether from the government or the press is difficult to know. The problem is that when they find Starmer has no case to answer the public will believe the police were leant on. Worse still it will leave Johnson horribly exposed and if he's going to be forced out that'll be the time.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,457
    Foxy said:

    490 Tory losses. Two councils left.

    Not going to reach that half century. Shame!

    Double the prediction though
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446
    Why no result yet from Flintshire? Perhaps Leon can enlighten us?

    Actually, according to Deeside media, there are two recounts scheduled for Saturday, thus no final result.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,038
    edited May 6

    EPG said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    The March 2017 NI assembly elections gave 11 DUP firsts an 7 SF and, save Lady Hernon, that reflected exactly at GE 17.

    On that basis, I make it we'd be looking at 10 SF, 5 DUP and 3 Alliance, although some very marginal and subject to FPTP specific tactical voting, at a GE.

    Every little helps, and that'd be 1.5 seats closer to a Labour government, by replacing 3 DUP with 3 abstentions.

    Personally am NOT sure that historic Sinn Fein position of absentionism re: British Parliament is good for all eternity.

    After all, they've already swallowed joining the Northern Ireland Assembly. My guess is that, the votes they'd lose by entering Westminster would likely be MORE than offset, by votes they'd gain on the other end. Esp. since they'd then have the greatest theater in the world in which to enact whatever agitprop and/or serious messaging - regardless of whether or not their votes were propping up the government or not.

    A bridge tooooo far? Farther even that the Boris Bridge! BUT stranger things happen in & from Hibernia.
    Well, the thing to remember is that to them, the main prize is to win in the Dáil, ideally an overall majority, which can't be excluded right now. The UK Parliament is not any kind of great theatre that helps with this. Actually, it hurts, and even being in the NI Executive and local councils hurts a little. It means they immediately commit to taking positions on mainstream government issues like housing and economics, and those positions get thrown back in their faces in the south, where they are promising to be a radical cleansing opposition. E.g., it is hard to both support redevelopment in Belfast and be an anti-investment NIMBY throwing out the property investors in Dublin. Anyway, it's no fun to be like the DUP or SDLP with a handful of MPs, talking to 632 people who largely think you are bigoted foreigners with funny accents. (Edit, note that if it were worth while, they probably would have broken abstentionism on Brexit, not out of principle as such but to increase tensions in the UK.)
    Agree that for SF the Dail is the real deal.

    But how does SF get "overall majority' there? Seems a stretch based on current polling? Esp as plenty of swing voters swinging their way will NOT be entirely dependable re: transfers, unlike core SFers.

    Also think that it's possible to do one thing in London, another in Dublin, and a third in Belfast. Esp. for politically-savvy Celts. And happens all the time in USA.

    Plus is increasing tensions in UK really a SF priority THIS millennium? Esp. as Boris and his DisUnionist Party are doing fine all on their own!
    SF have been in the mid-30s there for many months. Fine Gael nearly got an absolute majority on 35% in 2011. This was helped by a massive lead over the 2nd place party amid vote fragmentation - which in practice meant there were a lot of transfers flying around, and no other party strong enough to challenge for them in every constituency. All factors likely to help SF in 2020-whenever. For sure, within-party transfer discipline will not be like in Belfast West, but they will also be less transfer-repellent from other parties than in NI (a LOT of work has gone into this). I would say unlikely but not excludable. For sure 1/3 on "SF most seats" is good value in my eyes; with the two nearest competitors conjoined resentfully in government, it's hard to see how votes break to one or the other sufficiently that they overtake SF.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446
    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    The March 2017 NI assembly elections gave 11 DUP firsts an 7 SF and, save Lady Hernon, that reflected exactly at GE 17.

    On that basis, I make it we'd be looking at 10 SF, 5 DUP and 3 Alliance, although some very marginal and subject to FPTP specific tactical voting, at a GE.

    Every little helps, and that'd be 1.5 seats closer to a Labour government, by replacing 3 DUP with 3 abstentions.

    Personally am NOT sure that historic Sinn Fein position of absentionism re: British Parliament is good for all eternity.

    After all, they've already swallowed joining the Northern Ireland Assembly. My guess is that, the votes they'd lose by entering Westminster would likely be MORE than offset, by votes they'd gain on the other end. Esp. since they'd then have the greatest theater in the world in which to enact whatever agitprop and/or serious messaging - regardless of whether or not their votes were propping up the government or not.

    A bridge tooooo far? Farther even that the Boris Bridge! BUT stranger things happen in & from Hibernia.
    Well, the thing to remember is that to them, the main prize is to win in the Dáil, ideally an overall majority, which can't be excluded right now. The UK Parliament is not any kind of great theatre that helps with this. Actually, it hurts, and even being in the NI Executive and local councils hurts a little. It means they immediately commit to taking positions on mainstream government issues like housing and economics, and those positions get thrown back in their faces in the south, where they are promising to be a radical cleansing opposition. E.g., it is hard to both support redevelopment in Belfast and be an anti-investment NIMBY throwing out the property investors in Dublin. Anyway, it's no fun to be like the DUP or SDLP with a handful of MPs, talking to 632 people who largely think you are bigoted foreigners with funny accents. (Edit, note that if it were worth while, they probably would have broken abstentionism on Brexit, not out of principle as such but to increase tensions in the UK.)
    Agree that for SF the Dail is the real deal.

    But how does SF get "overall majority' there? Seems a stretch based on current polling? Esp as plenty of swing voters swinging their way will NOT be entirely dependable re: transfers, unlike core SFers.

    Also think that it's possible to do one thing in London, another in Dublin, and a third in Belfast. Esp. for politically-savvy Celts. And happens all the time in USA.

    Plus is increasing tensions in UK really a SF priority THIS millennium? Esp. as Boris and his DisUnionist Party are doing fine all on their own!
    SF have been in the mid-30s there for many months. Fine Gael nearly got an absolute majority on 35% in 2011. This was helped by a massive lead over the 2nd place party amid vote fragmentation - which in practice meant there were a lot of transfers flying around, and no other party strong enough to challenge for them in every constituency. All factors likely to help SF in 2020-whenever. For sure, within-party transfer discipline will not be like in Belfast West, but they will also be less transfer-repellent from other parties than in NI (a LOT of work has gone into this). I would say unlikely but not excludable. For sure 1/3 on "SF most seats" is good value in my eyes; with the two nearest competitors conjoined resentfully in government, it's hard to see how votes break to one or the other sufficiently that they overtake SF.
    Gave a like as you make a persuasive case. Just think that, the closer SF gets, the harder it gets, as folks begin to realize that they COULD do what you say. Somewhat similar to going the whole hog as it were, in Scotland, and Quebec?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 17,457
    edited May 6

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    Starmer's problem wouldn't be the FPN in itself but the hypocrisy and being caught out playing politics over the pandemic. Arguably he deserves his comeuppance after going on about the "Johnson variant".
    Well I think you might be disappointed. I don't believe there's a snowball in Hell's chance they'll find he did anything unlawful and then where will Johnson be?

    The problem is that no one believes Starmer has been partying whereas no one believes Johnson hasn't.

    In a straight race between facts and what the public believe there is only ever one winner.
    If Starmer and Rayner get FPNs then they will have been the authors of their own demise
    Yes for breaking the law. As has Johnson. It wasn't Starmer who chose to prosecute Johnson. He made a law and broke it. He should resign. Nothing whatever to do with starmer. Our police are independent. Is it different in Wales?

    Don't you remember how many people lost their jobs for breaking Covid rules. Neal Fergusson for example.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    Starmer's problem wouldn't be the FPN in itself but the hypocrisy and being caught out playing politics over the pandemic. Arguably he deserves his comeuppance after going on about the "Johnson variant".
    Well I think you might be disappointed. I don't believe there's a snowball in Hell's chance they'll find he did anything unlawful and then where will Johnson be?

    The problem is that no one believes Starmer has been partying whereas no one believes Johnson hasn't.

    In a straight race between facts and what the public believe there is only ever one winner.
    If Starmer and Rayner get FPNs then they will have been the authors of their own demise
    But Big Dog lives on, which is nice for you.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,620

    Starmer having to resign is Labour's best outcome for this local election week.

    Discuss. :smiley:

    Yes, Reeves (or Phillpson) would ascend to the leadership, and would be popular.
    NANDY

    Reeves is Keir in a dress.
    Philipson untested to any great extent.
    I fancy Rachel
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 35,327
    edited May 6
    kle4 said:

    He's overseen a terrible result, which sure may be largely to do with others, but he decided to throw his full weight behind those others rather than be his own man. Even if that would have been a futile effort we'll never know, as he decided to grab ankle and lack even courage of his convictions.

    So what purpose does he serve by staying on?
    Avoids the terrible dilemma for SCons of having to choose the least awful of some really awful candidates for leader. They have been there before, mind.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446

    It's a shame we're not still in the EU.
    If we were, we could have summoned Hercule Poirot to investigage Durhamgate.

    Perhaps Nick can recommend a Euro-skeptical gumshoe from Copenhagen? Såm Spæd?
  • EPGEPG Posts: 5,038

    EPG said:

    EPG said:

    Pro_Rata said:

    The March 2017 NI assembly elections gave 11 DUP firsts an 7 SF and, save Lady Hernon, that reflected exactly at GE 17.

    On that basis, I make it we'd be looking at 10 SF, 5 DUP and 3 Alliance, although some very marginal and subject to FPTP specific tactical voting, at a GE.

    Every little helps, and that'd be 1.5 seats closer to a Labour government, by replacing 3 DUP with 3 abstentions.

    Personally am NOT sure that historic Sinn Fein position of absentionism re: British Parliament is good for all eternity.

    After all, they've already swallowed joining the Northern Ireland Assembly. My guess is that, the votes they'd lose by entering Westminster would likely be MORE than offset, by votes they'd gain on the other end. Esp. since they'd then have the greatest theater in the world in which to enact whatever agitprop and/or serious messaging - regardless of whether or not their votes were propping up the government or not.

    A bridge tooooo far? Farther even that the Boris Bridge! BUT stranger things happen in & from Hibernia.
    Well, the thing to remember is that to them, the main prize is to win in the Dáil, ideally an overall majority, which can't be excluded right now. The UK Parliament is not any kind of great theatre that helps with this. Actually, it hurts, and even being in the NI Executive and local councils hurts a little. It means they immediately commit to taking positions on mainstream government issues like housing and economics, and those positions get thrown back in their faces in the south, where they are promising to be a radical cleansing opposition. E.g., it is hard to both support redevelopment in Belfast and be an anti-investment NIMBY throwing out the property investors in Dublin. Anyway, it's no fun to be like the DUP or SDLP with a handful of MPs, talking to 632 people who largely think you are bigoted foreigners with funny accents. (Edit, note that if it were worth while, they probably would have broken abstentionism on Brexit, not out of principle as such but to increase tensions in the UK.)
    Agree that for SF the Dail is the real deal.

    But how does SF get "overall majority' there? Seems a stretch based on current polling? Esp as plenty of swing voters swinging their way will NOT be entirely dependable re: transfers, unlike core SFers.

    Also think that it's possible to do one thing in London, another in Dublin, and a third in Belfast. Esp. for politically-savvy Celts. And happens all the time in USA.

    Plus is increasing tensions in UK really a SF priority THIS millennium? Esp. as Boris and his DisUnionist Party are doing fine all on their own!
    SF have been in the mid-30s there for many months. Fine Gael nearly got an absolute majority on 35% in 2011. This was helped by a massive lead over the 2nd place party amid vote fragmentation - which in practice meant there were a lot of transfers flying around, and no other party strong enough to challenge for them in every constituency. All factors likely to help SF in 2020-whenever. For sure, within-party transfer discipline will not be like in Belfast West, but they will also be less transfer-repellent from other parties than in NI (a LOT of work has gone into this). I would say unlikely but not excludable. For sure 1/3 on "SF most seats" is good value in my eyes; with the two nearest competitors conjoined resentfully in government, it's hard to see how votes break to one or the other sufficiently that they overtake SF.
    Gave a like as you make a persuasive case. Just think that, the closer SF gets, the harder it gets, as folks begin to realize that they COULD do what you say. Somewhat similar to going the whole hog as it were, in Scotland, and Quebec?
    It's a good question whether this kind of pullback effect outweights the big mo effect you also see where people join the bandwagon. I do think it did for Corbyn in the end (but not the first time!). Anyhow, if the next three years of government lead to any kind of net losses as is happening across Europe, and the votes end up in the SF column, that is the dynamic I think would lead to the scenario.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,060
    Roger said:

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.
    frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3913090/#Comment_3913090
    It's quite obvious that they have caved into pressure whether from the government or the press is difficult to know. The problem is that when they find Starmer has no case to answer the public will believe the police were leant on. Worse still it will leave Johnson horribly exposed and if he's going to be forced out that'll be the time.
    Try to get your facts right

    It was an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother that made the formal complaint to Durham Police which they acted on
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,060

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    Starmer's problem wouldn't be the FPN in itself but the hypocrisy and being caught out playing politics over the pandemic. Arguably he deserves his comeuppance after going on about the "Johnson variant".
    Well I think you might be disappointed. I don't believe there's a snowball in Hell's chance they'll find he did anything unlawful and then where will Johnson be?

    The problem is that no one believes Starmer has been partying whereas no one believes Johnson hasn't.

    In a straight race between facts and what the public believe there is only ever one winner.
    If Starmer and Rayner get FPNs then they will have been the authors of their own demise
    But Big Dog lives on, which is nice for you.
    No - I want him replaced as you know
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446
    edited May 6
    South Antrim declaration = 1 SF, 1 ALN, 1UUP, 2DUP

    Newry and South Antrim = 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP

    Lagan Valley still to declare tonight. Ditto South Belfast
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,551
    nico679 said:

    Would Starmer have gone after Johnson in such a way if he thought he himself had broken the rules .

    The beergate clip was out there already .

    Would he be that stupid ?

    Er....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,620

    South Antrim declaration = 1 SF, 1 ALN, 1UUP, 2DUP

    Newry and South Antrim = 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP

    Lagan Valley still to declare tonight. Ditto South Belfast

    Newry & South Armagh!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484

    Roger said:

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.
    frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3913090/#Comment_3913090
    It's quite obvious that they have caved into pressure whether from the government or the press is difficult to know. The problem is that when they find Starmer has no case to answer the public will believe the police were leant on. Worse still it will leave Johnson horribly exposed and if he's going to be forced out that'll be the time.
    Try to get your facts right

    It was an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother that made the formal complaint to Durham Police which they acted on
    The former Chief Constable of Durham (finished in 2019) said yesterday on the radio that he wouldn't reopen the case as he suggested (my precis) it smacks of justice by tabloid lynch mob.

    Starmer has foolishly exposed himself and has to go.

    A question. Do you want Durham Police to investigate Johnson's victorious by election victory in a pub in Hartlepool a week or so later? I thought not. Consequences don't apply to Boris.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446

    South Antrim declaration = 1 SF, 1 ALN, 1UUP, 2DUP

    Newry and South Antrim = 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP

    Lagan Valley still to declare tonight. Ditto South Belfast

    Newry & South Armagh!
    Arrrgh-magh!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484

    Roger said:

    nico679 said:

    Foxy said:

    algarkirk said:

    Bridget Phillpson probably wins for Labour in 2024.

    Woman. Catholic. Moderate. Likeable. Would be a lot of firsts, all good. Not in a safe seat if the red wall fails to consolidate.

    I thought Louise Haigh good on BBCQT last night. One to watch too.

    Though Starmer is going to fight the next election IMO.
    Apparently Durham Police are following the MET police and questionnaires will be sent to all present and the investigation will take 6 weeks
    6 weeks to investigate one event . Johnson needs the Met Police and the Gray report to come out quickly then as Labour will be muted in their response .

    It is to be hoped it is never introduced again in future lockdowns

    The idea the PM, COE, leader and deputy leader of the labour party should resign for a FPN is just silly
    Starmer's problem wouldn't be the FPN in itself but the hypocrisy and being caught out playing politics over the pandemic. Arguably he deserves his comeuppance after going on about the "Johnson variant".
    Well I think you might be disappointed. I don't believe there's a snowball in Hell's chance they'll find he did anything unlawful and then where will Johnson be?

    The problem is that no one believes Starmer has been partying whereas no one believes Johnson hasn't.

    In a straight race between facts and what the public believe there is only ever one winner.
    If Starmer and Rayner get FPNs then they will have been the authors of their own demise
    But Big Dog lives on, which is nice for you.
    No - I want him replaced as you know
    Earlier this week you were demanding equal justice for Starmer and Johnson. Should a Durham FPN be issued I believe Starmer will fall on his sword, if he does and Johnson remains in post until the GE, are you comfortable that justice has run its course. Or is Beergate a more egregious breach of the rules than poor Boris and Rishi being ambushed for a few seconds with birthday cake?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 42,620

    South Antrim declaration = 1 SF, 1 ALN, 1UUP, 2DUP

    Newry and South Antrim = 3 SF, 1 SDLP, 1 DUP

    Lagan Valley still to declare tonight. Ditto South Belfast

    Newry & South Armagh!
    Arrrgh-magh!
    My bad!

    Newry & Armagh.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,025
    Apparently Croydon are going to start counting the council seats at about 1 in the morning after the mayoral election is declared. Seems to like an odd schedule to me.
  • pingping Posts: 3,192
    Got wordle in 5 this time.

    They picked a good word today.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 2,551

    Roger said:

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.
    frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3913090/#Comment_3913090
    It's quite obvious that they have caved into pressure whether from the government or the press is difficult to know. The problem is that when they find Starmer has no case to answer the public will believe the police were leant on. Worse still it will leave Johnson horribly exposed and if he's going to be forced out that'll be the time.
    Try to get your facts right

    It was an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother that made the formal complaint to Durham Police which they acted on
    The former Chief Constable of Durham (finished in 2019) said yesterday on the radio that he wouldn't reopen the case as he suggested (my precis) it smacks of justice by tabloid lynch mob.

    Starmer has foolishly exposed himself and has to go.

    A question. Do you want Durham Police to investigate Johnson's victorious by election victory in a pub in Hartlepool a week or so later? I thought not. Consequences don't apply to Boris.
    Unfortunately we’ll never know the real reason why Durham police re-opened their investigation but it does leave a bad taste when it’s the DM aka the no 10 media arm and overt political pressure by members of the government which might have been instrumental. What turns work into a social gathering , if you’re standing around having a drink discussing the campaign or let’s say the get out the vote operation , one persons work might be another persons social .

    So the measures is somewhat subjective , for this reason I’d make no bets on whether Durham will issue a FPN.

    I do feel for Starmer but this long wait now for the investigation to conclude is going to hamstring Labour at a time when Johnson might receive more FPNs and the possible Sue Gray report being released .

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    This:



    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    What’s weird about today’s election analysis is that people are acting as if they’ve never seen mid-term election results before. Blair, Hague, Howard, Cameron, Miliband, Corbyn. We’ve got a template. We can see what scale of gains indicate an opposition party is close to power.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,137
    Biden gets it:

    President Joe Biden spoke with top U.S. intelligence and defense officials on Friday to stress the importance of their work but also said that recent news reports about U.S. intelligence sharing with Ukraine have been counterproductive, according to two administration officials.

    On the phone with CIA Director William Burns, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, Biden's message was that such disclosures “distract from our objective,” one official said. The other official said Biden conveyed that the leaks should stop.


    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-told-officials-media-reports-us-intel-sharing-ukraine-are-counte-rcna27738
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446
    RTE 23.40 - The count in Belfast South has adjourned for the night, with the standings left as follows for the remaining two seats:

    Paula Bradshaw of the Alliance Party - 7,150 votes

    Kate Nicholl of the Alliance Party - 5,742 votes

    Claire Bailey of the Green Party - 5,046 votes

    Stephen McCarthy of the UUP - 3,769 votes

    Claire Bailey has closed the gap to Kate Nicholl since the start of the proceedings, but the question of what way will UUP transfers go will occupy both Alliance and Green camps as they retire for the night

    SSI - already elected = 1 SF and 1 DUP (Edwin "Pterodactyl" Poots)
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,137
    Any peace deal with Russia would depend on Russian forces pulling back to their pre-invasion positions, Ukraine's president says.
    Speaking to a London think tank, Volodymyr Zelensky said that was the minimum that his country could accept.
    He said he was the leader of "Ukraine, not a mini-Ukraine". But he did not mention Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014.


    https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61359228
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    edited May 6
    Wow.

    As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.

    Thread of the evening.


    John Harris
    @johnharris1969
    ·
    4h
    You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)

    John Harris
    @johnharris1969
    ·
    4h
    Replying to
    @johnharris1969
    It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)


    John Harris
    @johnharris1969
    P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1522652701544394760

  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 1,322

    I had a go at Wordle with the Alastair Meeks strategy:

    image

    Today’s is a bugger too, or I’m losing my touch…

    Wordle 322 6/6

    ⬜⬜⬜🟨🟨
    🟨🟩⬜⬜⬜
    ⬜🟩🟨⬜⬜
    ⬜⬜🟨🟩🟩
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446
    Lagan Valley declaration = 2 DUP, 1 UUP, 2 ALN
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,771
    carnforth said:


    I had a go at Wordle with the Alastair Meeks strategy:

    image

    Today’s is a bugger too, or I’m losing my touch…

    Wordle 322 6/6

    ⬜⬜⬜🟨🟨
    🟨🟩⬜⬜⬜
    ⬜🟩🟨⬜⬜
    ⬜⬜🟨🟩🟩
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    Wordle 322 3/6

    🟨🟨⬜⬜⬜
    🟩⬜⬜⬜🟨
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩

    Thought it was an easy one!
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484

    This:



    (((Dan Hodges)))
    @DPJHodges
    ·
    1h
    What’s weird about today’s election analysis is that people are acting as if they’ve never seen mid-term election results before. Blair, Hague, Howard, Cameron, Miliband, Corbyn. We’ve got a template. We can see what scale of gains indicate an opposition party is close to power.

    Hodges has fallen four square behind his current paymasters. His analysis is very poor. He is the idiot his mother once publicly proclaimed.
  • pingping Posts: 3,192
    carnforth said:


    I had a go at Wordle with the Alastair Meeks strategy:

    image

    Today’s is a bugger too, or I’m losing my touch…

    Wordle 322 6/6

    ⬜⬜⬜🟨🟨
    🟨🟩⬜⬜⬜
    ⬜🟩🟨⬜⬜
    ⬜⬜🟨🟩🟩
    ⬜🟩⬜🟩🟩
    🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩
    I’m looking forward to the day wordle’s word is “Tryst”

    Catch out all those dirty vowel strategists.
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 237
    I thought the Johnson stuff was the usual pathetic "journalist" shite to start with, what made it objectionable for me was, firstly, that he was writing the laws punishing other people for doing the same thing, and secondly, that it was multiple offences rather than a single mistake.

    The Starmer stuff is different, in that he wasn't directly making the laws (despite arguing for them to be stricter) and that it's - at this stage - just a single mistake rather than a pattern.

    That being said, if Starmer is fined for the potentially illegal event he attended, it's going to make it much harder for him to argue Johnson should resign for the event(s) he attended; and in that case, it's going to make it much harder for the spineless cowards on the Tory benches to push for a VONC.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.

    Edit: the independent councillor seems to be vigorously anti-Labour, judging by his twitter feed.
    Most are so why is that relevant
    It’s relevant to remind you that “independent” does not mean unbiased.

    You’re on the same side as Nadine Dorries and Jeremy Corbyn on this one, which perhaps should make you think.

    I had hoped that the argument "you're on the same side as X" would have died a death after the referendum, when there were plenty of odious characters on both sides.

    Argument from anti-authority is no more valid than argument from authority.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484

    Wow.

    As ever John Harris adds something to the conversation that is worth sitting up and listening to. No one in political journalism does more thinking and scratching around beneath the headlines than this guy imho.

    Thread of the evening.


    John Harris
    @johnharris1969
    ·
    4h
    You won't hear much political sociology in reporting of these election results. But a lot of them tell you about how a large chunk of the English middle class no longer meets old-fashioned stereotypes. (1)

    John Harris
    @johnharris1969
    ·
    4h
    Replying to
    @johnharris1969
    It's increasingly liberal & worldly, thanks partly to the expansion of Higher Education, but also to how far cities' cultures now stretch well into suburbia and the commuter belt (2)


    John Harris
    @johnharris1969
    P.s Blair's expansion of Higher Education May yet prove to be as transformative as Thatcher's sale of council houses

    https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/1522652701544394760

    I think Johnsonians have twigged the final point, which is why they want to reverse it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 57,137
    The RSOTM Telegram channel run by Wagner private military contractors currently in Ukraine said that either “there will be a mobilization or we will lose the war.” They think they need 600-800k people to defeat Ukraine.
    https://t.me/grey_zone/13960


    These were the same guys who said the Moskva sank before it was publicly reported elsewhere, and that TB2 UCAVs took part in distracting the ship, which the New York Times confirmed yesterday. 2/

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1522724129102868482
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    nico679 said:

    Roger said:

    The Mail is becoming an embarrassment even by its own standards: this evening has a big strapline saying "Beergate: Day 10" - which simply advertises they have banged on about nothing else for the last week.

    I thought you were referring to Starmer who did the same on party gate
    I think the difference is that it was revealed that Boris had serially and flagrantly flouted the Covid rules and repeatedly lied about it.

    I still can’t see what Keir has supposed to have done in Durham and frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    We now have a six week delay - for what exactly?
    The problem is you do not know the details of the new evidence that has caused the investigation to be reopened and apparently questionnaires are to be sent by detectives to all present and no doubt photographs and videos will also be reviewed which is not going to be quick and 6 weeks may not be enough

    There were 30 in attendence and an online quiz was held

    Your accusation about corrupt pressure on Durham Police is extraordinary and just partisan

    If Starmer and Rayner are innocent of covid regulation breach then they have nothing to fear
    Your last paragraph is very naive in my opinion.

    The police have already been shown not to be playing with a straight bat with their unilateral decision to observe “purdah”.

    This is not a murder investigation. It is a matter of whether a curry (and quiz) at the end of a long day’s campaigning was legal under the extant covid laws.

    That doesn’t take 6 weeks.

    I’m sorry but this smells very crooked to me.
    I am so angered that Starmer has let Johnson off the hook.

    The Durham event has minimised the seriousness of Johnson's outrageous behaviour. "They were all at it, they were all as bad as each other". No they weren't! But Starmer's utter folly makes it look that way. "For the love of God, go man".

    Starmer and Rayner should both go this weekend.
    What should they have done?
    As we saw with the Savile smear, it’s very difficult to find the right answer to “have you stopped beating your wife?”

    I agree they have mishandled this, but I’m not sure how I would have dealt with this better (which is one reason I am not in politics).
    Just for your information Durham Police opened their investigation after receiving a formal complaint from an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother in the pandemic

    Maybe time to stop making unfounded allegations
    Perhaps you can direct me to my “unfounded allegations”.
    frankly it looks like Durham Police have caved to improper pressure by this corrupt government.

    https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3913090/#Comment_3913090
    It's quite obvious that they have caved into pressure whether from the government or the press is difficult to know. The problem is that when they find Starmer has no case to answer the public will believe the police were leant on. Worse still it will leave Johnson horribly exposed and if he's going to be forced out that'll be the time.
    Try to get your facts right

    It was an independent Durham councillor who lost his mother that made the formal complaint to Durham Police which they acted on
    The former Chief Constable of Durham (finished in 2019) said yesterday on the radio that he wouldn't reopen the case as he suggested (my precis) it smacks of justice by tabloid lynch mob.

    Starmer has foolishly exposed himself and has to go.

    A question. Do you want Durham Police to investigate Johnson's victorious by election victory in a pub in Hartlepool a week or so later? I thought not. Consequences don't apply to Boris.
    Unfortunately we’ll never know the real reason why Durham police re-opened their investigation but it does leave a bad taste when it’s the DM aka the no 10 media arm and overt political pressure by members of the government which might have been instrumental. What turns work into a social gathering , if you’re standing around having a drink discussing the campaign or let’s say the get out the vote operation , one persons work might be another persons social .

    So the measures is somewhat subjective , for this reason I’d make no bets on whether Durham will issue a FPN.

    I do feel for Starmer but this long wait now for the investigation to conclude is going to hamstring Labour at a time when Johnson might receive more FPNs and the possible Sue Gray report being released .

    Did it leave a bad taste when overt political pressure caused the Met to reopen their investigation?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 48,438

    Italy has detained "Putin's yacht" the Scheherazade. The late night announcement comes two days after the New York Times (@gaia_pianigiani and me) wrote about how the $700 million yacht was getting ready to set sail, avoiding sanctions.


    https://twitter.com/PekingMike/status/1522673932226158595

    I think that is potentially very significant. The Germans get a lot of stick on here, but the Italians (who don't have either the quantity of renewable generation, or their own lignite mines/power stations) are probably even more dependent on the Russians.

    They may have - belatedly - come to the conclusion that the best way to get energy prices back down is for the Ukrainians to decisively win, and for the Putin regime to fall.

    Italy have, along with Hungary, been the biggest holdouts on Russian sanctions. It would be great if things were to change.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    The RSOTM Telegram channel run by Wagner private military contractors currently in Ukraine said that either “there will be a mobilization or we will lose the war.” They think they need 600-800k people to defeat Ukraine.
    https://t.me/grey_zone/13960


    These were the same guys who said the Moskva sank before it was publicly reported elsewhere, and that TB2 UCAVs took part in distracting the ship, which the New York Times confirmed yesterday. 2/

    https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1522724129102868482

    Putin can easily push 800k kids to the front under general mobilization on 9th May - but whether they can win is another story.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    I thought the Johnson stuff was the usual pathetic "journalist" shite to start with, what made it objectionable for me was, firstly, that he was writing the laws punishing other people for doing the same thing, and secondly, that it was multiple offences rather than a single mistake.

    The Starmer stuff is different, in that he wasn't directly making the laws (despite arguing for them to be stricter) and that it's - at this stage - just a single mistake rather than a pattern.

    That being said, if Starmer is fined for the potentially illegal event he attended, it's going to make it much harder for him to argue Johnson should resign for the event(s) he attended; and in that case, it's going to make it much harder for the spineless cowards on the Tory benches to push for a VONC.

    If Starmer is fined he has to resign imho.

    His career as LOTO is over.

    The stakes on Durham police are now very very high.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,484

    I thought the Johnson stuff was the usual pathetic "journalist" shite to start with, what made it objectionable for me was, firstly, that he was writing the laws punishing other people for doing the same thing, and secondly, that it was multiple offences rather than a single mistake.

    The Starmer stuff is different, in that he wasn't directly making the laws (despite arguing for them to be stricter) and that it's - at this stage - just a single mistake rather than a pattern.

    That being said, if Starmer is fined for the potentially illegal event he attended, it's going to make it much harder for him to argue Johnson should resign for the event(s) he attended; and in that case, it's going to make it much harder for the spineless cowards on the Tory benches to push for a VONC.

    If Starmer is fined he has to resign imho.

    His career as LOTO is over.

    The stakes on Durham police are now very very high.
    Yes he has to go not least because he is hamstrung to attack Johnson for Johnson's egregious misbehaviour.

    Johnson by contrast is by default now off the hook should any further FPNs come his way.

    Durham Constabulary would have been perfectly entitled to stick with their Cummings line for Starmer. Having taken the leap, do they also investigate Johnson celebrating by electron victory in a Hartlepool pub, not that it makes any difference to Johnson?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,025
    edited May 7
    Results of the first round of the Croydon mayoral election. Second round required as no candidate has polled more than 50%.

    Jason Perry (CON) – 33,413
    Val Shawcross (LAB) – 31,352
    Richard Michael Howard (LIB DEM) – 9967
    Andrew Pelling (IND) – 6807
    Peter Underwood (GREEN) – 6193
    Farah London (TAKING THE INITIATIVE PARTY) – 5768
    Winston McKenzie (IND) – 1324
    Gavin Palmer (IND) – 1114

    https://twitter.com/BalancePowerUK/status/1522737781423886344
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446
    Andy_JS said:

    Results of the first round of the Croydon mayoral election. Second round required as no candidate has polled more than 50%.

    Jason Perry (CON) – 33,413
    Val Shawcross (LAB) – 31,352
    Richard Michael Howard (LIB DEM) – 9967
    Andrew Pelling (IND) – 6807
    Peter Underwood (GREEN) – 6193
    Farah London (TAKING THE INITIATIVE PARTY) – 5768
    Winston McKenzie (IND) – 1324
    Gavin Palmer (IND) – 1114

    https://twitter.com/BalancePowerUK/status/1522737781423886344

    So Shawcross is gonna win in the end? With transfers from bottom four as well as LibDem breaking for her, and only Pelling transfers aiding the Tory?
  • pingping Posts: 3,192
    edited May 7
    Interesting

    Andrew Neil (sort of) comes out in favour of a windfall tax on energy giants;

    “(they) can afford it”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10791107/ANDREW-NEIL-poll-turned-electoral-map-Britain-head.html

    His main conclusion is: the economy is in the shitter and the incumbent will inevitably take the flak.

    Difficult to disagree with that.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 10,446
    ping said:

    Interesting

    Andrew Neil (sort of) comes out in favour of a windfall tax on energy giants;

    “(they) can afford it”

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-10791107/ANDREW-NEIL-poll-turned-electoral-map-Britain-head.html

    Like what Willy Sutton said when asked, so why DO you rob banks?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,344
    New thread.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 20,025
    edited May 7

    Andy_JS said:

    Results of the first round of the Croydon mayoral election. Second round required as no candidate has polled more than 50%.

    Jason Perry (CON) – 33,413
    Val Shawcross (LAB) – 31,352
    Richard Michael Howard (LIB DEM) – 9967
    Andrew Pelling (IND) – 6807
    Peter Underwood (GREEN) – 6193
    Farah London (TAKING THE INITIATIVE PARTY) – 5768
    Winston McKenzie (IND) – 1324
    Gavin Palmer (IND) – 1114

    https://twitter.com/BalancePowerUK/status/1522737781423886344

    So Shawcross is gonna win in the end? With transfers from bottom four as well as LibDem breaking for her, and only Pelling transfers aiding the Tory?
    I thought Labour would win but there are reports that the Tory is about 500 votes ahead.
This discussion has been closed.