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ITV News: “46 CON MPs might have sent confidence vote letters” – politicalbetting.com

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  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,912
    edited April 2022

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Remain would win.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    What does Putin want with that? He wants to divide us internally. Why are you playing his game?
    Oh dear! I am not "playing his game". I would very much like my country to not "play his game", but quite a lot of politicians and suggestible citizens (nay subjects) of this country are quite happy to, and he is pissing his pants at people like you.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    NYT ($) - America’s Road to the Ukraine War
    For years, the United States sent mixed signals about its interests in the country. Then Vladimir V. Putin made his move.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/24/us/politics/russia-ukraine-diplomacy.html

    ". . . . Earlier, in December 2017, under pressure from his national security aides and Congress, Mr. Trump agreed to do what Mr. Obama would not: approve the sale of Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine.

    But in mid-2019, the White House froze $391 million in military aid to Ukraine, including the Javelins, to build leverage for Mr. Trump’s demands, congressional investigators later found. The move hobbled Ukraine’s war effort against Russia-backed separatists.

    “For it to be held up, they couldn’t understand that,” [US Ambassador to Ukraine] Mr. Taylor said.

    That set the stage for a fateful July 25 call between Mr. Trump and Mr. Zelensky. “I would like you to do us a favor,” Mr. Trump said. He requested the two investigations.

    Mr. Zelensky and his aides were confused. “The rest of the U.S. government was very supportive of Ukraine,” Mr. Taylor said. “But from the top, the president had a different message and set of conditions.”

    Mr. Zelensky scheduled a CNN interview for September to announce one or both of the investigations that Mr. Trump had requested to satisfy the American president. But the interview never happened because journalists had begun reporting on the hold on military aid, and lawmakers sympathetic to Ukraine had persisted in asking the White House about the suspended aid. On Sept. 9, three House committees announced investigations into the pressure campaign after reviewing a whistle-blower complaint citing the July call.

    The Trump administration released the aid on Sept. 11.

    Secretary of State Mike Pompeo met with Mr. Zelensky in Kyiv on Jan. 31, 2020, the first cabinet official to do so since the announcement of an impeachment inquiry into Mr. Trump the previous September. The Senate trial was underway.

    Just days earlier, Mr. Pompeo had blown up at an NPR reporter in an interview, asking her to identify Ukraine on an unmarked map and yelling, “Do you think Americans care” about Ukraine? — using an expletive before “Ukraine.”

    Yet in Kyiv, Mr. Pompeo stood next to Mr. Zelensky in the presidential palace and said the U.S. commitment to support Ukraine “will not waver.”

    But the damage had been done, and Mr. Zelensky was unconvinced that the United States was a trusted ally, [former US Ambassador to Ukraine] Ms. Yovanovitch said in an interview last month.

    “Trying to use our national security policy in order to further President Trump’s personal and political agenda was not just wrong, but it was really detrimental to the bilateral relationship,” she said . . ."



  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492
    IshmaelZ said:

    BigRich said:

    Have we talked about the 2 explosions/fires at Russian oil storage facility's near Belgorod?

    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1518390835519311874?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1518390835519311874|twgr^|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022/04/25/a-mysterious-explosion-in-bryansk-n464687

    As I see it possibilities include:

    a) complete accidents
    b) Accidents dew to rushing because they are supplying so much fuel to the Russian army
    c) False Flag, by Russian state
    d) sabotage by workers sympathetic to Ukraine
    e) Sabotage/bomb by Ukrainian special forces
    f) Missile/helicopter strike by Ukraine.

    I think f most likely, but any other thoughts? will we see more of this?

    UA drone

    https://twitter.com/AggregateOsint/status/1518589834830352384
    Thanks, that seems fairly conclusive,
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310


    BREWIS

    "Pour boiling water on a crust of bread; pour the water off and it is ready; season with salt and pepper. Serve in a breakfast cup and eat with a spoon"

    "Good Things in England", Florence White, 1932

    Bread and water. Just deserts for voting Tory.
    Sounds like luxury compared to Scottish Indy desserts.
    Scots after-tea reward for voting ‘No’ is Boris Johnson.
    He will be gone soon, which will be very disappointing for you. At least I have never supported him, whereas you, I guess, may have been a one time supporter of that other joke politician of these islands; the fat little turd that was described by his QC as a "bully and a sex pest".
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Graun on PM in promises to root out culprit re Ms Rayner:

    "Sky News has just broadcast the clip now. As he talks about the “terrors of the earth”, Johnson frowns, and looks serious, but hyperbole like this normally implies Johnson is exaggerating for comic effect. There is a risk that a quote intended to show he is taking this seriously could have the opposite effect.

    As the Lib Dems have argued in the past, if Johnson is keen to root out people in the Conservative party who have expressed sexist views, other culprits are available."

    From the distant perspective of Tuscumbia, Alabama, this looks like a load of kerpiffle about very little

    It was a silly, stupid, faintly squalid story, but it not really malign Ms Rayner. It implied she is sexy, and it also implied Boris is such a pathetic lech he can be totally distracted by a middle aged woman with decent legs sitting ten feet away in a mildly short skirt. Boris was made to look worse in the article than Rayner

    The Guardian reportage of the reportage was also odd. They talk about the Basic Instinct comparison, and they say "the movie is notorious for the scene where the suspect briefly reveals her vulva"


    "Vulva"??

    Where did they get that from? Is *vagina* now incorrect? Could this be a trans thingy thingy? Why not say genitals? Vee-jay-jay? Intimate parts? Loins? Groin?

    Vulva??

    Is that now the word We Must Use?
    https://www.o.school/article/what-is-your-vulva-what-are-the-parts-of-a-vagina
    Leon is crazy. Vulva has been around for decades
    Quite. If Boris was supposedly seeing her vagina, WTF? Was she sat in stirrups??? And with some serious lighting in the Chamber too....

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    If the vote had been compromised by Russia, the only fair course of action would be to rerun the EU Referendum, we are not a Russian autocracy, we are a democracy after all.

    Anyway, on topic, if Johnson is deposed, what happens to the wallpaper?
    Every voter gets 4 sq. mm.....
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    Roger said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Remain would win.
    Remain isn't even an option...

    So what would happen would be the Eurofederalists would have to fight their full-fat Rejoin referendum, including the euro and Schengen, at least a couple of decades before they were ready.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,283

    I really didn't think that, after nearly six years, there was anything left to be said about the Brexit referendum, Russian interference, respecting the vote, and so on.

    And I was right.

    Especially as GE 2019 trumps EUREF 2016 so it's a pointless debate anyway...
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,357
    .
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    No, even if it turns out to be true, hysteresis applies.

    Just out of curiosity, suppose it was proven that Russian FSB agents had managed to physically stuff the ballot boxes, and the actual tally of votes cast by British citizens was 52-48 for Remain. What would people do then?

    It's hard to see how we could undo what had happened in the intervening six years, even though we really would have had the result unequivocally swayed by Russia.
  • kinabalu said:

    No change at RedfieldWilton

    Westminster Voting Intention (24 Apr):

    Labour 42% (–)
    Conservative 34% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (+1)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 17 Apr

    There comes a time when the polls no longer doing much tells us that what we're looking at is the settled will of the country. That could well be the case here. LAB by 8 feels right and it also feels baked in. I'd be surprised if GE24 deviates by much from this although gun to head I'd predict LAB by 4 or 5 on the day.
    That's a bold prediction, I would be inclined to predict realistically only a 5-6% swing more similar to what Cameron got, Labour basically regaining all the seats they lost in 2019 apart from a few like Bassetlaw and Dudley North plus some additional marginals in the East Midlands and the south that Corbyn did not win in 2017.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Graun on PM in promises to root out culprit re Ms Rayner:

    "Sky News has just broadcast the clip now. As he talks about the “terrors of the earth”, Johnson frowns, and looks serious, but hyperbole like this normally implies Johnson is exaggerating for comic effect. There is a risk that a quote intended to show he is taking this seriously could have the opposite effect.

    As the Lib Dems have argued in the past, if Johnson is keen to root out people in the Conservative party who have expressed sexist views, other culprits are available."

    From the distant perspective of Tuscumbia, Alabama, this looks like a load of kerpiffle about very little

    It was a silly, stupid, faintly squalid story, but it not really malign Ms Rayner. It implied she is sexy, and it also implied Boris is such a pathetic lech he can be totally distracted by a middle aged woman with decent legs sitting ten feet away in a mildly short skirt. Boris was made to look worse in the article than Rayner

    The Guardian reportage of the reportage was also odd. They talk about the Basic Instinct comparison, and they say "the movie is notorious for the scene where the suspect briefly reveals her vulva"


    "Vulva"??

    Where did they get that from? Is *vagina* now incorrect? Could this be a trans thingy thingy? Why not say genitals? Vee-jay-jay? Intimate parts? Loins? Groin?

    Vulva??

    Is that now the word We Must Use?
    https://www.o.school/article/what-is-your-vulva-what-are-the-parts-of-a-vagina
    Leon is crazy. Vulva has been around for decades
    Quite. If Boris was supposedly seeing her vagina, WTF? Was she sat in stirrups??? And with some serious lighting in the Chamber too....

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    If the vote had been compromised by Russia, the only fair course of action would be to rerun the EU Referendum, we are not a Russian autocracy, we are a democracy after all.

    Anyway, on topic, if Johnson is deposed, what happens to the wallpaper?
    Every voter gets 4 sq. mm.....
    It’s gets papered over.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Remain would win.
    Remain isn't even an option...

    So what would happen would be the Eurofederalists would have to fight their full-fat Rejoin referendum, including the euro and Schengen, at least a couple of decades before they were ready.
    Probably what you will get if you live long enough. Think on that! I am not really in favour of rejoining, but I will get massive amusement of seeing the outrage in all those old gammony faces when they get the full monty because those treacherous millennials decided they would like to go back in. lol.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Timmycool said:

    Leon said:

    Do we have any Alabama experts on the board today?

    I have one day here in the far north west bit. Tuscumbia/Muscle Shoals. By the mighty Tennessee River

    I was gonna hike the river or some canyons.... but it's decided to rain. Heavily (the first day of bad weather after a week of pure sun - which returns tomorrow, huzzah)

    Things To Do In Alabama When It Rains. Are there any? I thought of driving to Alabama's Most Depressing Town, say Selma, or Bessemer, to indulge in a day of Full on Feasting on American Declinism, but are they that bad? I want BAD. I want Mississippi BAD. Detroit BAD. Shuttered streets, empty factories, fentanyl addicts, desolate malls, maybe a rich Woke student shouting at poor white people about their privilege - in the rain.

    Where can I get that?

    Quick YouTube (there are channels dedicated to driving the "hood" of these kind of places), Bessemer looks pretty bad. Worst of those kind of places I have been, Gary, Indiana.
    Gary, Indiana at one point was the murder capital of the US. You are right, FU, it is a horrible little town on the Southwest corner of Lake Michigan. So depressing. Stopped once on the way from Chicago to Warsaw, Indiana and my hosts were amazed I'd gotten out alive!!!
    I know Indiana quite well from the David Soul song Silver Lady. The wind and rain cuts through you, there, and leaves you chilled to the bone. Bleak, as you say. Best to play the song rather than visit. This applies to quite a few places in America, come to think of it. Galverston is another good example. Just play the song and leave it at that.
    Went to Galveston once, while touring Texas. Canvey Island with pelicans.
    Haha - interesting song though. My understanding is that it was initially written as an anti-Vietnam war song, but in Glen Campbell's hands - who was, I think, Republican by inclination, and disinclined to play anything which might be perceived as unpatriotic - became something rather more subtle and nuanced.

    I also love that a song of such yearning can be written about somewhere so unpreposessing. As someone who still gets a hairs on the back of the neck feeling from this song - even though it was written as a joke - I can fully identify. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yKG8SSSAvPQ
    Yes, quite like the song. Hence was disappointed with the real thing.
    AFAIK no-one's ever written a song about Canvey, although Dr Feelgood came from there.
    When were you in Galveston? Time of year IS a factor. It's basically Houston's answer to Coney Island.

    For best Texas beaches, head down to Corpus Christi and Padre Island. Though personally prefer the "true" Redneck Riviera at Pensacola Florida & eastward.
  • BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,492

    I’m still at Girona airport. They dragged us off the plane due to a piece of paper in the engine, and the need for an engineer from Barcelona to remove it. They sent us a €4 token for non alcoholic drinks or food. It cost me that to buy a dry sandwich and half a packet of crisps, and more than that for a drink to wash it down with.

    I’m 254th in the queue to chat with Ryanair online so I’ve playing big chess with random kids

    How does one buy half a bag of crisps? do you buy a normal bag and the cashier take half out?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379
    edited April 2022

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Remain would win.
    Remain isn't even an option...

    So what would happen would be the Eurofederalists would have to fight their full-fat Rejoin referendum, including the euro and Schengen, at least a couple of decades before they were ready.
    Probably what you will get if you live long enough. Think on that! I am not really in favour of rejoining, but I will get massive amusement of seeing the outrage in all those old gammony faces when they get the full monty because those treacherous millennials decided they would like to go back in. lol.
    Quite possibly. At least being a proper member would be better than the unsustainable previous half in, half out position. If Remain had won I would now be a strong advocate of joining the euro and Schengen.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    BigRich said:

    Have we talked about the 2 explosions/fires at Russian oil storage facility's near Belgorod?

    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1518390835519311874?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1518390835519311874|twgr^|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022/04/25/a-mysterious-explosion-in-bryansk-n464687

    As I see it possibilities include:

    a) complete accidents
    b) Accidents dew to rushing because they are supplying so much fuel to the Russian army
    c) False Flag, by Russian state
    d) sabotage by workers sympathetic to Ukraine
    e) Sabotage/bomb by Ukrainian special forces
    f) Missile/helicopter strike by Ukraine.

    I think f most likely, but any other thoughts? will we see more of this?

    I have a good idea what the Russians probably say about f - that makes it retroactive justification for war.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Cookie said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Agreed, it would not be a good thing. That said, anyone who continues to believe that Russia did not attempt to influence the vote is a dumbass to put it mildly. The reality though, is that our democratic system was most likely subverted, but we have to live with the result and try and learn from it
    I'm sure that Putin tried to influence the Brexit referendum result, but very sceptical that it made a ha'pennyworth of difference. Voters are quite capable of being stupid on their own account, without any external assistance. In any case it was much more likely to have been Corbyn and Seumas Milne who tipped the balance.
    If you learned what I have learned over the last couple of years about social media marketing you would not be so convinced that there was no influence. I think the likelihood that it tipped the balance was more likely than unlikely. There was a very high turnout on an issue that failed to inspire interest in a large part of the population only a few years before. The opinion polls moved considerably and the authorities were completely pig ignorant about what was going on.

    Here is a simple example of how it works: I, Vladimir, put out an advert that might appeal to folk who might be nationalistic but probably don't vote. It might be a man wearing a union flag waist coat. The caption reads: "it isn't racist to wear the Union Jack". The advertiser then chooses the demographic that might most be motivated by this. It gets lots of "likes" and comments on FB. This then pleases the algorithm that then pushes it out even more. The people that like or share it are remarketed over an over again with targeted messages that make them feel angrier and angrier about "the establishment" and the EU, and they share it and like it etc. etc. and a whole group of statistically significant voters are influenced to vote a particular way. Anyone who thinks Putin did not do this and did not influence the outcome is deluding themself.
    But as we understand it, the vote to leave came from the demographic (the over 40s) which uses social media least.

    And I saw almost none of this. But I did see a constant social media barrage from the Remain side, little of which would have withstood any scrutiny whatsoever.
    Sorry you are not correct. FBs largest demographic is now over 40s. I saw many posts like the one I described "liked" by my more right wing friends and family.
  • Roger said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Of all the migrants and asylum seekers I spoke to in Calais and Dunkirk, none of them are deterred by Priti Patel’s policy of sending illegal arrivals to Rwanda

    Many different stories from people from very different backgrounds, but all with one goal: 1/9

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/threat-of-africa-wont-stop-us-insist-dunkirk-camps-refugees-g7xrrb9q0

    Err, sample selection bias?
    Contradicts Sky recent piece filmed in Calais with real refugees declaring they are changing their plans as they do not want to be sent to Rwanda
    My point was that those deterred are unlikely to ever find themselves in Calais.
    Those interviewed were in Calais and made their fear of going to Rwanda very clear
    If they were already in Calais and it deterred them they'd be looking to leave Calais at the time.

    They likely wouldn't be in Calais anymore and wouldn't be heading there anymore.

    Almost by definition, apart from when the policy is introduced, those who are deterred won't be found but that's because they're deterred.

    That will go over Scott's head though.
    It'll go over everyone's head who has a brain in it. I thought you'd undergone a cleansing since your Lazarus moment when you discovered your idol had feet of clay?

    It looks like you're the same old soullessTory.
    The policy is backed by 38/32% and while I have my reservations if it reduces cross channel attempts and drownings then it will have worked without the need to send anyone to Rwanda
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,802
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    JUST IN: Twitter is working to hammer out terms of a transaction and could reach an agreement with Elon Musk as soon as today if negotiations go smoothly, according to a person with knowledge of the matter

    https://twitter.com/business/status/1518556240242253826

    LOL, sounds like Musk has won. This could get rather interesting.
    Someone commented that he should move the HQ to Texas which is an interesting prospect given the current exodus from California.
    Weren't we debating the "alleged" importance of Twitter the other day? With some on here claiming it is a meaningless echo-chamber, of little importance?

    Musk is paying $43 BILLION for this meaningless echo chamber, which rather answers that question

    Twitter is the most influential social media site on the planet, for politics, journalism, academe, etc
    No one said it was meaningless, it's a hugely malign influence on humanity. Hopefully Elon can rectify it and send the gender studies students packing back to screeching on street corners.
  • BigRich said:

    I’m still at Girona airport. They dragged us off the plane due to a piece of paper in the engine, and the need for an engineer from Barcelona to remove it. They sent us a €4 token for non alcoholic drinks or food. It cost me that to buy a dry sandwich and half a packet of crisps, and more than that for a drink to wash it down with.

    I’m 254th in the queue to chat with Ryanair online so I’ve playing big chess with random kids

    How does one buy half a bag of crisps? do you buy a normal bag and the cashier take half out?
    I had to pay the difference. I could have said a bag of crisps and seven eighths of a sandwich, but it would have taken more time. Turns out I have plenty of that.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    What does Putin want with that? He wants to divide us internally. Why are you playing his game?
    Oh dear! I am not "playing his game". I would very much like my country to not "play his game", but quite a lot of politicians and suggestible citizens (nay subjects) of this country are quite happy to, and he is pissing his pants at people like you.
    But also, I would suggest, at people like you.
    Russia and China don't particularly care whether the UK or any other country in the west is pro-EU or anti-EU, or pro-trans or anti-trans, or pro-BLM or anti-BLM, or pro-vax or anti-vax. What does excite them is seeing democractic countries tearing themselves apart in paroxysms of internal fury. They just want to fuel the fire.
    They do, mind, quite want an independent Scotland. That'd be a big win for them. That's a side they're unequivocally on. They're also on the side of anyone who is anti-Nato and anyone who increases dependence on Russian hydrocarbons.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    ...

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    If the vote had been compromised by Russia, the only fair course of action would be to rerun the EU Referendum, we are not a Russian autocracy, we are a democracy after all.

    Anyway, on topic, if Johnson is deposed, what happens to the wallpaper?
    We are a parliamentary democracy not a direct democracy, as the 2016 to 2019 period proved it was only getting a Tory majority in December 2019 that delivered Brexit through Parliament into law in 2020.

    The referendum result itself changed nothing legally
    You say that now...evidence item 1 m'lud, the prorogation of Parliament.

    All the Brexiteers were crying foul. "The sovereign 2017 Parliament is undemocratic because it will not enact the will of the people, who voted (in a non- binding referendum) to leave the EU".

    Now I am not blaming you HY, you are, like myself a good honest yeoman serf who voted Remain.
    Yes but the prorogation of Parliament made sod all difference. Parliament still refused to vote for Brexit and the Supreme Court ruled it unconstitutional anyway.

    Only the Tory majority in December 2019 delivered Brexit as I said
    I have been somewhat (OK very) flippant, and technically you are right about Johnson's 2019 manifesto and subsequent Parliamentary landslide being sovereign. It is a tricky conundrum nonetheless if Putin directly and substantively changed the course of British history by chicanery against the real express will of the people.
    Lawmaking power in the UK only comes from the will of the people in general elections not referendums in reality.

    We have had far too many referendums in recent years, personally I would gladly never see another referendum held in the UK again. Just let the elected House of Commons have the final say on UK law
    Yes but, if the HoC has had it's final say on faulty evidence furnished by an enemy power are you not uncomfortable with that?

    I am very disturbed that armed with such incendiary information Mrs May chose to hide the facts.
    If you really believe the average Tory voter in 2019 voted for Boris and Brexit because of Russian propoganda rather than as they wanted to regain sovereignty and control immigration, then I expect you also believe Elvis is still around too!
    If you believe you are someone who cannot be nudged by social media remarketing then can I put you on my mailing list?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I'm still wondering why MoS thought the Angela Rayner story was a good idea? Anyone?

    I'm fairly sure it was planted to help her, and hinder Boris

    It's a clever piece of spin, either by anti-Boris-ite Tories, or Rayner's team
    No I'm sorry neither the MoS nor the anti-Boris faction are that wily.

    This was the latest in a long list of dreadful and hateful tripe from the Mail stable. Once you realise what has come before, you realise that they really did mean it and have probably been surprised at the backlash.

    Well done Boris and other Conservatives for condemning it. It demeans us and the whole of politics.
    Absurdly naive

    This story only helps Rayner, and only troubles Boris. And that is bloody obvious. So we can see its provenance quite clearly

    BTW I don't blame Rayner's team for planting it, if it was them. Politics is a rough business and Boris presents an easy target in this context
    Femme fatale cynically employs her physical assets to try and put the PM off his stride in the House of Commons and blunt his Oxford University debating skills. But he refuses to play her sordid little game. He ploughs on manfully with the serious business of running the country.

    I don't quite see how this is supposed to help her and damage "Boris".
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705
    edited April 2022
    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    JUST IN: Twitter is working to hammer out terms of a transaction and could reach an agreement with Elon Musk as soon as today if negotiations go smoothly, according to a person with knowledge of the matter

    https://twitter.com/business/status/1518556240242253826

    LOL, sounds like Musk has won. This could get rather interesting.
    Someone commented that he should move the HQ to Texas which is an interesting prospect given the current exodus from California.
    Weren't we debating the "alleged" importance of Twitter the other day? With some on here claiming it is a meaningless echo-chamber, of little importance?

    Musk is paying $43 BILLION for this meaningless echo chamber, which rather answers that question

    Twitter is the most influential social media site on the planet, for politics, journalism, academe, etc
    $43bn for a load of random drivel, the man is insane if he buys it for that. For $43bn he could build his own Matrix. On the Moon. In a parallel universe.
  • Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Labour only led by 38% to 31% in the NEV in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in the West Midlands and Scotland now where they are likely to hold up reasonably well IMO even if they do very badly in the Northern Mets vote wise.

    Therefore I'd probably predict something like Lab 35% Con 33% LD 16%. Greens could also do well on the upside.

    Admittedly I now think the LDs could be higher (despite the lack of favourable areas up) as they might now smash it out of the park in southern councils like Somerset, Woking, S Cambs and St Albans and do well as a protest vote on northern councils like Sunderland, Liverpool and Sheffield.
    - “ … in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in… Scotland now…”

    Huh?

    Scottish Tories polling in the teens* is surely about the same as 2012?

    (*last three Scottish Westminster VI polls, full-sample, SCon VI: 17%, 19%, 19%)
    I can still easily see the Scottish Tories getting 20-23% (compared with 25% in 2017) even if it's more likely SLab comes 2nd in council seats now. Given they under nominated on various councils like Aberdeenshire, Angus, Moray, Dumfries and Galloway, Perth and Kinross, Argyll and Bute (Helensburgh) etc last time I can't see how they lose much more than 20-30 councillors in Scotland on a bad day (even factoring in a poor result in Aberdeen City, Edinburgh, Glasgow and parts of the central belt like North Lanarkshire where they only scraped councillors last time).
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    Starmer has an 8 point lead over Johnson on best PM in the latest R&W, and a 17 point lead over Sunak! Seems silly to still be doing PM polling on Sunak given that he is now a totally busted flush.
  • MalcolmDunnMalcolmDunn Posts: 139
    46 MPs? A total guess from ITV as no one will have told them anything. I wonder if this was started by the ludicrous Robert Peston? Since Cummings went he has no sources and it shows.
  • Roger said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Remain would win.
    You cannot remain when you have left

    You can rejoin but as none of the major parties apart from the SNP are going to offer rejoin then as I have said many times before, these extreme leavers and remainers need to work with the majority of ordinary voters to promote much better UK-EU relationships on defence, security and trade
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Cookie said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    What does Putin want with that? He wants to divide us internally. Why are you playing his game?
    Oh dear! I am not "playing his game". I would very much like my country to not "play his game", but quite a lot of politicians and suggestible citizens (nay subjects) of this country are quite happy to, and he is pissing his pants at people like you.
    But also, I would suggest, at people like you.
    Russia and China don't particularly care whether the UK or any other country in the west is pro-EU or anti-EU, or pro-trans or anti-trans, or pro-BLM or anti-BLM, or pro-vax or anti-vax. What does excite them is seeing democractic countries tearing themselves apart in paroxysms of internal fury. They just want to fuel the fire.
    They do, mind, quite want an independent Scotland. That'd be a big win for them. That's a side they're unequivocally on. They're also on the side of anyone who is anti-Nato and anyone who increases dependence on Russian hydrocarbons.
    That is an hilariously dogmatic post. Putin is massively anti-EU. Probably a little more anti-NATO, and yes, definitely pro Scottish independence. He is someone that seeks division, and his hope was that Brexit would cause further fractures in the EU. I guess you believe the "Russia Report" and also that sometimes you see fairies at the end of the garden. For the record, I am not in favour of rejoin, but I think people need to wake up to the fact that Russia did everything it could to encourage Leave. That is clearly troubling for you, but not for me.
  • Now some man is teaching his daughter really inaccurate chess rules (he’s at least doing it in German and English, but still..) I think I’m going to have to move further away.
  • boulayboulay Posts: 5,486

    Roger said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Remain would win.
    You cannot remain when you have left

    You can rejoin but as none of the major parties apart from the SNP are going to offer rejoin then as I have said many times before, these extreme leavers and remainers need to work with the majority of ordinary voters to promote much better UK-EU relationships on defence, security and trade
    There would also be the issue that “rejoin” would be very unlikely to be accepted by the EU on the previous terms and would likely be a negative for rejoiners in a re-run.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Leon said:

    Sandpit said:

    JUST IN: Twitter is working to hammer out terms of a transaction and could reach an agreement with Elon Musk as soon as today if negotiations go smoothly, according to a person with knowledge of the matter

    https://twitter.com/business/status/1518556240242253826

    LOL, sounds like Musk has won. This could get rather interesting.
    Someone commented that he should move the HQ to Texas which is an interesting prospect given the current exodus from California.
    Weren't we debating the "alleged" importance of Twitter the other day? With some on here claiming it is a meaningless echo-chamber, of little importance?

    Musk is paying $43 BILLION for this meaningless echo chamber, which rather answers that question

    Twitter is the most influential social media site on the planet, for politics, journalism, academe, etc
    $43bn for a load of random drivel, the man is insane if he buys it for that. For $43bn he could build his own Matrix. On the Moon. In a parallel universe.
    Build a Death Star.

    Your next move, Putin....
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    edited April 2022

    Starmer has an 8 point lead over Johnson on best PM in the latest R&W, and a 17 point lead over Sunak! Seems silly to still be doing PM polling on Sunak given that he is now a totally busted flush.

    I can't remember a political career going into freefall quite as quickly or steeply as Sunak's. In a couple of months he's gone from being the golden boy, the saviour of Toryism, to bottom of the Con Home poll of members (and there's pretty stiff competition there in the hopeless stakes) and, as you say, down the pan in national polling. Remarkable.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    No change at RedfieldWilton

    Westminster Voting Intention (24 Apr):

    Labour 42% (–)
    Conservative 34% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (+1)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 17 Apr

    There comes a time when the polls no longer doing much tells us that what we're looking at is the settled will of the country. That could well be the case here. LAB by 8 feels right and it also feels baked in. I'd be surprised if GE24 deviates by much from this although gun to head I'd predict LAB by 4 or 5 on the day.
    That's a bold prediction, I would be inclined to predict realistically only a 5-6% swing more similar to what Cameron got, Labour basically regaining all the seats they lost in 2019 apart from a few like Bassetlaw and Dudley North plus some additional marginals in the East Midlands and the south that Corbyn did not win in 2017.
    Bit of false precision from me there but my core betting view atm is Starmer PM after GE24, whether Johnson leads the Cons into it or not.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    GIN1138 said:

    I really didn't think that, after nearly six years, there was anything left to be said about the Brexit referendum, Russian interference, respecting the vote, and so on.

    And I was right.

    Especially as GE 2019 trumps EUREF 2016 so it's a pointless debate anyway...
    No it doesn't. Voting in 2019 for leave *given the 2016 vote* is quite a different thing from voting for leave
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Taz said:

    Leon said:

    Carnyx said:

    Graun on PM in promises to root out culprit re Ms Rayner:

    "Sky News has just broadcast the clip now. As he talks about the “terrors of the earth”, Johnson frowns, and looks serious, but hyperbole like this normally implies Johnson is exaggerating for comic effect. There is a risk that a quote intended to show he is taking this seriously could have the opposite effect.

    As the Lib Dems have argued in the past, if Johnson is keen to root out people in the Conservative party who have expressed sexist views, other culprits are available."

    From the distant perspective of Tuscumbia, Alabama, this looks like a load of kerpiffle about very little

    It was a silly, stupid, faintly squalid story, but it not really malign Ms Rayner. It implied she is sexy, and it also implied Boris is such a pathetic lech he can be totally distracted by a middle aged woman with decent legs sitting ten feet away in a mildly short skirt. Boris was made to look worse in the article than Rayner

    The Guardian reportage of the reportage was also odd. They talk about the Basic Instinct comparison, and they say "the movie is notorious for the scene where the suspect briefly reveals her vulva"


    "Vulva"??

    Where did they get that from? Is *vagina* now incorrect? Could this be a trans thingy thingy? Why not say genitals? Vee-jay-jay? Intimate parts? Loins? Groin?

    Vulva??

    Is that now the word We Must Use?
    https://www.o.school/article/what-is-your-vulva-what-are-the-parts-of-a-vagina
    Leon is crazy. Vulva has been around for decades
    Quite. If Boris was supposedly seeing her vagina, WTF? Was she sat in stirrups??? And with some serious lighting in the Chamber too....

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    If the vote had been compromised by Russia, the only fair course of action would be to rerun the EU Referendum, we are not a Russian autocracy, we are a democracy after all.

    Anyway, on topic, if Johnson is deposed, what happens to the wallpaper?
    Every voter gets 4 sq. mm.....
    It’s gets papered over.
    Papering over the cracks? We back to Rayner???
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,912

    Roger said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Of all the migrants and asylum seekers I spoke to in Calais and Dunkirk, none of them are deterred by Priti Patel’s policy of sending illegal arrivals to Rwanda

    Many different stories from people from very different backgrounds, but all with one goal: 1/9

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/threat-of-africa-wont-stop-us-insist-dunkirk-camps-refugees-g7xrrb9q0

    Err, sample selection bias?
    Contradicts Sky recent piece filmed in Calais with real refugees declaring they are changing their plans as they do not want to be sent to Rwanda
    My point was that those deterred are unlikely to ever find themselves in Calais.
    Those interviewed were in Calais and made their fear of going to Rwanda very clear
    If they were already in Calais and it deterred them they'd be looking to leave Calais at the time.

    They likely wouldn't be in Calais anymore and wouldn't be heading there anymore.

    Almost by definition, apart from when the policy is introduced, those who are deterred won't be found but that's because they're deterred.

    That will go over Scott's head though.
    It'll go over everyone's head who has a brain in it. I thought you'd undergone a cleansing since your Lazarus moment when you discovered your idol had feet of clay?

    It looks like you're the same old soullessTory.
    The policy is backed by 38/32% and while I have my reservations if it reduces cross channel attempts and drownings then it will have worked without the need to send anyone to Rwanda
    Would you take the same view with executions or hand amputations for theft? According to the Saudis it has been very effective and is rarely used.
  • TazTaz Posts: 14,385

    Roger said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Of all the migrants and asylum seekers I spoke to in Calais and Dunkirk, none of them are deterred by Priti Patel’s policy of sending illegal arrivals to Rwanda

    Many different stories from people from very different backgrounds, but all with one goal: 1/9

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/threat-of-africa-wont-stop-us-insist-dunkirk-camps-refugees-g7xrrb9q0

    Err, sample selection bias?
    Contradicts Sky recent piece filmed in Calais with real refugees declaring they are changing their plans as they do not want to be sent to Rwanda
    My point was that those deterred are unlikely to ever find themselves in Calais.
    Those interviewed were in Calais and made their fear of going to Rwanda very clear
    If they were already in Calais and it deterred them they'd be looking to leave Calais at the time.

    They likely wouldn't be in Calais anymore and wouldn't be heading there anymore.

    Almost by definition, apart from when the policy is introduced, those who are deterred won't be found but that's because they're deterred.

    That will go over Scott's head though.
    It'll go over everyone's head who has a brain in it. I thought you'd undergone a cleansing since your Lazarus moment when you discovered your idol had feet of clay?

    It looks like you're the same old soullessTory.
    The policy is backed by 38/32% and while I have my reservations if it reduces cross channel attempts and drownings then it will have worked without the need to send anyone to Rwanda
    My main reason for opposing this policy is once in Rwanda successful asylum seekers are not allowed to come to U.K.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218

    Applicant said:

    Roger said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Remain would win.
    Remain isn't even an option...

    So what would happen would be the Eurofederalists would have to fight their full-fat Rejoin referendum, including the euro and Schengen, at least a couple of decades before they were ready.
    Probably what you will get if you live long enough. Think on that! I am not really in favour of rejoining, but I will get massive amusement of seeing the outrage in all those old gammony faces when they get the full monty because those treacherous millennials decided they would like to go back in. lol.
    I'd be happy to keep Johnson, Farage et al alive so they can witness it.

    There's no point talking about it now. But the public view is what it is- it's going badly and was probably a mistake. Unless that changes (how?), the will of the people will be to reverse ferret.
  • Starmer has an 8 point lead over Johnson on best PM in the latest R&W, and a 17 point lead over Sunak! Seems silly to still be doing PM polling on Sunak given that he is now a totally busted flush.

    I can't remember a political career going into freefall quite as quickly or steeply as Sunak's. In a couple of months he's gone from being the golden boy, the saviour of Toryism, to bottom of the Con Home poll of members (and there's pretty stiff competition there in the hopeless stakes) and, as you say, down the pan in national polling. Remarkable.
    It is and does anyone have a comparison as I cannot think of one
  • ApplicantApplicant Posts: 3,379

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    The EU isn't hostile? They've had a funny way of showing it in recent years.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,277
    edited April 2022
    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I'm still wondering why MoS thought the Angela Rayner story was a good idea? Anyone?

    I'm fairly sure it was planted to help her, and hinder Boris

    It's a clever piece of spin, either by anti-Boris-ite Tories, or Rayner's team
    No I'm sorry neither the MoS nor the anti-Boris faction are that wily.

    This was the latest in a long list of dreadful and hateful tripe from the Mail stable. Once you realise what has come before, you realise that they really did mean it and have probably been surprised at the backlash.

    Well done Boris and other Conservatives for condemning it. It demeans us and the whole of politics.
    Absurdly naive

    This story only helps Rayner, and only troubles Boris. And that is bloody obvious. So we can see its provenance quite clearly

    BTW I don't blame Rayner's team for planting it, if it was them. Politics is a rough business and Boris presents an easy target in this context
    Femme fatale cynically employs her physical assets to try and put the PM off his stride in the House of Commons and blunt his Oxford University debating skills. But he refuses to play her sordid little game. He ploughs on manfully with the serious business of running the country.

    I don't quite see how this is supposed to help her and damage "Boris".
    Look at how this story has unfolded, entirely predictably. Tories apologising everywhere, Boris looking like a salacious old git, Rayner's profile heightened, even as she gets the sympathy of the political world

    You'd need an IQ of less than about 103 to be unable to foresee these consequences. This explains your muted reaction, you too are very slightly more intelligent than the average, but only VERY slightly. 103.

    It's right on the edge of your abilities of comprehension, and you're not sure what to make of it. You stare at it quizzically, like a crow looking at a mirror
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 5,398
    edited April 2022
    kle4 said:

    BigRich said:

    Have we talked about the 2 explosions/fires at Russian oil storage facility's near Belgorod?

    https://twitter.com/TWMCLtd/status/1518390835519311874?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1518390835519311874|twgr^|twcon^s1_c10&ref_url=https://hotair.com/allahpundit/2022/04/25/a-mysterious-explosion-in-bryansk-n464687

    As I see it possibilities include:

    a) complete accidents
    b) Accidents dew to rushing because they are supplying so much fuel to the Russian army
    c) False Flag, by Russian state
    d) sabotage by workers sympathetic to Ukraine
    e) Sabotage/bomb by Ukrainian special forces
    f) Missile/helicopter strike by Ukraine.

    I think f most likely, but any other thoughts? will we see more of this?

    I have a good idea what the Russians probably say about f - that makes it retroactive justification for war.
    When the Skripol murders took place, the perpetrators were caught due to advanced surveillance technology in the UK. In all probability, such surveillance technology doesn't exist in these minor Russian towns and cities, and the military have been redeployed to Ukraine, leaving these domestic targets as an open goal, and detection very difficult. I would guess that it is sabotage by some mysterious anti war element, possibly foreign agents, and it will continue. It is also a factor that the regime probably did not actually expect to be attacked in this way, the fear of NATO and the wars it provokes on its boundaries is all whipped up for a domestic audience to embed the power of the existing regime. Interesting times.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    The EU isn't hostile? They've had a funny way of showing it in recent years.
    Do you use Facebook as well?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    Throw some bait on the water - and up come the fishes......
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2022

    BigRich said:

    I’m still at Girona airport. They dragged us off the plane due to a piece of paper in the engine, and the need for an engineer from Barcelona to remove it. They sent us a €4 token for non alcoholic drinks or food. It cost me that to buy a dry sandwich and half a packet of crisps, and more than that for a drink to wash it down with.

    I’m 254th in the queue to chat with Ryanair online so I’ve playing big chess with random kids

    How does one buy half a bag of crisps? do you buy a normal bag and the cashier take half out?
    I had to pay the difference. I could have said a bag of crisps and seven eighths of a sandwich, but it would have taken more time. Turns out I have plenty of that.
    Hard for us to visualize, why didn't you take a picture like you did with your previous feasts?

    ADDENDUM - Perhaps you should have spring for the "tortugas en tostadas"?
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    Starmer has an 8 point lead over Johnson on best PM in the latest R&W, and a 17 point lead over Sunak! Seems silly to still be doing PM polling on Sunak given that he is now a totally busted flush.

    I can't remember a political career going into freefall quite as quickly or steeply as Sunak's. In a couple of months he's gone from being the golden boy, the saviour of Toryism, to bottom of the Con Home poll of members (and there's pretty stiff competition there in the hopeless stakes) and, as you say, down the pan in national polling. Remarkable.
    it's an example of the dangers of populism and popularity unrelated to objective worth. He was, as people are, fantastically popular when dishing out hundreds of billions of free money to Tory voters to ensure that they had only limited experience of how the benefits system works. less so when the bills, Non Dom status and Green card come knocking.

    Look at the popularity charts among ministers now; gosh - way out in front is the defence secretary. Now, why on earth can that be.....

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited April 2022

    kinabalu said:

    No change at RedfieldWilton

    Westminster Voting Intention (24 Apr):

    Labour 42% (–)
    Conservative 34% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (+1)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 17 Apr

    There comes a time when the polls no longer doing much tells us that what we're looking at is the settled will of the country. That could well be the case here. LAB by 8 feels right and it also feels baked in. I'd be surprised if GE24 deviates by much from this although gun to head I'd predict LAB by 4 or 5 on the day.
    No mate
    Well I'm not often wrong. Best track record on here by my reckoning. And I do keep a very careful log of every single thing said by every single poster.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,705

    Now some man is teaching his daughter really inaccurate chess rules (he’s at least doing it in German and English, but still..) I think I’m going to have to move further away.

    How inaccurate are we talking here? The rook passes Go and collects £200?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I'm still wondering why MoS thought the Angela Rayner story was a good idea? Anyone?

    I'm fairly sure it was planted to help her, and hinder Boris

    It's a clever piece of spin, either by anti-Boris-ite Tories, or Rayner's team
    No I'm sorry neither the MoS nor the anti-Boris faction are that wily.

    This was the latest in a long list of dreadful and hateful tripe from the Mail stable. Once you realise what has come before, you realise that they really did mean it and have probably been surprised at the backlash.

    Well done Boris and other Conservatives for condemning it. It demeans us and the whole of politics.
    Absurdly naive

    This story only helps Rayner, and only troubles Boris. And that is bloody obvious. So we can see its provenance quite clearly

    BTW I don't blame Rayner's team for planting it, if it was them. Politics is a rough business and Boris presents an easy target in this context
    Femme fatale cynically employs her physical assets to try and put the PM off his stride in the House of Commons and blunt his Oxford University debating skills. But he refuses to play her sordid little game. He ploughs on manfully with the serious business of running the country.

    I don't quite see how this is supposed to help her and damage "Boris".
    Look at how this story has unfolded, entirely predictably. Tories apologising everywhere, Boris looking like a salacious old git, Rayner's profile heightened, even as she gets the sympathy of the political world

    You'd need an IQ of less than about 103 to be unable to foresee these consequences. This explains your muted reaction, you too are very slightly more intelligent than the average, but only VERY slightly. 103.

    It's right on the edge of your abilities of comprehension, and you're not sure what to make of it. You stare at it quizzically, like a crow looking at a mirror
    Says the chap who likes to believe he is VERY clever but still believes in Brexit. lol. And Santa no doubt.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,150
    edited April 2022
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    No change at RedfieldWilton

    Westminster Voting Intention (24 Apr):

    Labour 42% (–)
    Conservative 34% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (+1)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 17 Apr

    There comes a time when the polls no longer doing much tells us that what we're looking at is the settled will of the country. That could well be the case here. LAB by 8 feels right and it also feels baked in. I'd be surprised if GE24 deviates by much from this although gun to head I'd predict LAB by 4 or 5 on the day.
    No mate
    Well I'm not often wrong. Best track record on here by my reckoning. And I do keep a very careful log of every single thing said by every single poster.
    That one needs to be Sung.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    Throw some bait on the water - and up come the fishes......
    Back peddling rapidly? I bet you "liked" few of those memes during 2016 eh?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,083
    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    The EU isn't hostile? They've had a funny way of showing it in recent years.
    Political disagreements do not amount to hostility. Idiots in the EU and the UK just have an interest escalating rhetoric and petty sniping.
  • Now some man is teaching his daughter really inaccurate chess rules (he’s at least doing it in German and English, but still..) I think I’m going to have to move further away.

    How inaccurate are we talking here? The rook passes Go and collects £200?
    For one thing, pawns can take forward, diagonally or sideways (even when not en passant). It’s really hard viewing, but strangely intriguing..
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Labour only led by 38% to 31% in the NEV in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in the West Midlands and Scotland now where they are likely to hold up reasonably well IMO even if they do very badly in the Northern Mets vote wise.

    Therefore I'd probably predict something like Lab 35% Con 33% LD 16%. Greens could also do well on the upside.

    Admittedly I now think the LDs could be higher (despite the lack of favourable areas up) as they might now smash it out of the park in southern councils like Somerset, Woking, S Cambs and St Albans and do well as a protest vote on northern councils like Sunderland, Liverpool and Sheffield.
    - “ … in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in… Scotland now…”

    Huh?

    Scottish Tories polling in the teens* is surely about the same as 2012?

    (*last three Scottish Westminster VI polls, full-sample, SCon VI: 17%, 19%, 19%)
    I can still easily see the Scottish Tories getting 20-23% (compared with 25% in 2017) even if it's more likely SLab comes 2nd in council seats now. Given they under nominated on various councils like Aberdeenshire, Angus, Moray, Dumfries and Galloway, Perth and Kinross, Argyll and Bute (Helensburgh) etc last time I can't see how they lose much more than 20-30 councillors in Scotland on a bad day (even factoring in a poor result in Aberdeen City, Edinburgh, Glasgow and parts of the central belt like North Lanarkshire where they only scraped councillors last time).
    Scottish Tories getting 20-23% would be an utter disaster. Conservative turnout is always higher in these less-important elections than it is in biggies. A Scottish Tory vote of 20-23% in council elections would equate with approx 15% in a parliamentary election (Edinburgh or London); ie. humiliation.
  • Roger said:

    Roger said:

    Eabhal said:

    Eabhal said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Of all the migrants and asylum seekers I spoke to in Calais and Dunkirk, none of them are deterred by Priti Patel’s policy of sending illegal arrivals to Rwanda

    Many different stories from people from very different backgrounds, but all with one goal: 1/9

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/threat-of-africa-wont-stop-us-insist-dunkirk-camps-refugees-g7xrrb9q0

    Err, sample selection bias?
    Contradicts Sky recent piece filmed in Calais with real refugees declaring they are changing their plans as they do not want to be sent to Rwanda
    My point was that those deterred are unlikely to ever find themselves in Calais.
    Those interviewed were in Calais and made their fear of going to Rwanda very clear
    If they were already in Calais and it deterred them they'd be looking to leave Calais at the time.

    They likely wouldn't be in Calais anymore and wouldn't be heading there anymore.

    Almost by definition, apart from when the policy is introduced, those who are deterred won't be found but that's because they're deterred.

    That will go over Scott's head though.
    It'll go over everyone's head who has a brain in it. I thought you'd undergone a cleansing since your Lazarus moment when you discovered your idol had feet of clay?

    It looks like you're the same old soullessTory.
    The policy is backed by 38/32% and while I have my reservations if it reduces cross channel attempts and drownings then it will have worked without the need to send anyone to Rwanda
    Would you take the same view with executions or hand amputations for theft? According to the Saudis it has been very effective and is rarely used.
    Now you are being utterly ridiculous but then that is not so unusual
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    Hearing Rachel Reeves say she was "pleased" Labour lost in 2019 made me finally agree to join the data breach class action against Labour.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Pensfold said:

    Can anyone think of an example of a woman using her wiles to win an argument?

    Penelope
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663
    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I'm still wondering why MoS thought the Angela Rayner story was a good idea? Anyone?

    I'm fairly sure it was planted to help her, and hinder Boris

    It's a clever piece of spin, either by anti-Boris-ite Tories, or Rayner's team
    No I'm sorry neither the MoS nor the anti-Boris faction are that wily.

    This was the latest in a long list of dreadful and hateful tripe from the Mail stable. Once you realise what has come before, you realise that they really did mean it and have probably been surprised at the backlash.

    Well done Boris and other Conservatives for condemning it. It demeans us and the whole of politics.
    Absurdly naive

    This story only helps Rayner, and only troubles Boris. And that is bloody obvious. So we can see its provenance quite clearly

    BTW I don't blame Rayner's team for planting it, if it was them. Politics is a rough business and Boris presents an easy target in this context
    Femme fatale cynically employs her physical assets to try and put the PM off his stride in the House of Commons and blunt his Oxford University debating skills. But he refuses to play her sordid little game. He ploughs on manfully with the serious business of running the country.

    I don't quite see how this is supposed to help her and damage "Boris".
    Look at how this story has unfolded, entirely predictably. Tories apologising everywhere, Boris looking like a salacious old git, Rayner's profile heightened, even as she gets the sympathy of the political world

    You'd need an IQ of less than about 103 to be unable to foresee these consequences. This explains your muted reaction, you too are very slightly more intelligent than the average, but only VERY slightly. 103.

    It's right on the edge of your abilities of comprehension, and you're not sure what to make of it. You stare at it quizzically, like a crow looking at a mirror
    You on the other hand are so dumb you have decided that an obnoxious, salacious, misogynist story about Rayner is the fault of... Rayner herself.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Is 46% on a 2022 exit too high?

    What do you guys think would happen if the letters do trigger a VOC? I'm far from certain that Johnson would lose it.

    Yep, it’s one thing to get 54 letters, but the rebels need to be sure they have the 180 votes required to win. I’m not sure they do.
    Once a dam breaks it breaks
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    GIN1138 said:

    kinabalu said:

    No change at RedfieldWilton

    Westminster Voting Intention (24 Apr):

    Labour 42% (–)
    Conservative 34% (–)
    Liberal Democrat 11% (+1)
    Green 4% (-1)
    Scottish National Party 4% (-1)
    Reform UK 4% (+1)
    Other 1% (–)

    Changes +/- 17 Apr

    There comes a time when the polls no longer doing much tells us that what we're looking at is the settled will of the country. That could well be the case here. LAB by 8 feels right and it also feels baked in. I'd be surprised if GE24 deviates by much from this although gun to head I'd predict LAB by 4 or 5 on the day.
    Public opinion is not going to stay static for the next 2 years lol!
    No, it'll wobble around, we might even see a small Con lead every so often, but there's a certain definition to it now. That's my sense of things anyway. I didn't have it until this last few weeks but I have it now.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Hearing Rachel Reeves say she was "pleased" Labour lost in 2019 made me finally agree to join the data breach class action against Labour.

    That's gonna really hurt the Tories.

    How stupid are you to think that attacking Labour is the way to promote the Left in this country?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    kle4 said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    The EU isn't hostile? They've had a funny way of showing it in recent years.
    Political disagreements do not amount to hostility. Idiots in the EU and the UK just have an interest escalating rhetoric and petty sniping.
    I guess the depressing thing is that if anyone in this country can believe that the EU is either a state or hostile then there is an even higher level of stupidity in this country than many of us feared. Such people ought to do a quick trip to Ukraine to see what hostile looks like.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I'm still wondering why MoS thought the Angela Rayner story was a good idea? Anyone?

    I'm fairly sure it was planted to help her, and hinder Boris

    It's a clever piece of spin, either by anti-Boris-ite Tories, or Rayner's team
    No I'm sorry neither the MoS nor the anti-Boris faction are that wily.

    This was the latest in a long list of dreadful and hateful tripe from the Mail stable. Once you realise what has come before, you realise that they really did mean it and have probably been surprised at the backlash.

    Well done Boris and other Conservatives for condemning it. It demeans us and the whole of politics.
    Absurdly naive

    This story only helps Rayner, and only troubles Boris. And that is bloody obvious. So we can see its provenance quite clearly

    BTW I don't blame Rayner's team for planting it, if it was them. Politics is a rough business and Boris presents an easy target in this context
    Femme fatale cynically employs her physical assets to try and put the PM off his stride in the House of Commons and blunt his Oxford University debating skills. But he refuses to play her sordid little game. He ploughs on manfully with the serious business of running the country.

    I don't quite see how this is supposed to help her and damage "Boris".
    Look at how this story has unfolded, entirely predictably. Tories apologising everywhere, Boris looking like a salacious old git, Rayner's profile heightened, even as she gets the sympathy of the political world

    You'd need an IQ of less than about 103 to be unable to foresee these consequences. This explains your muted reaction, you too are very slightly more intelligent than the average, but only VERY slightly. 103.

    It's right on the edge of your abilities of comprehension, and you're not sure what to make of it. You stare at it quizzically, like a crow looking at a mirror
    You on the other hand are so dumb you have decided that an obnoxious, salacious, misogynist story about Rayner is the fault of... Rayner herself.
    Leon always blames the woman
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Something that Leon might find worth seeing in Alabama, though could be much too woke for his taste:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edmund_Pettus_Bridge
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    ,,
    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I'm still wondering why MoS thought the Angela Rayner story was a good idea? Anyone?

    I'm fairly sure it was planted to help her, and hinder Boris

    It's a clever piece of spin, either by anti-Boris-ite Tories, or Rayner's team
    No I'm sorry neither the MoS nor the anti-Boris faction are that wily.

    This was the latest in a long list of dreadful and hateful tripe from the Mail stable. Once you realise what has come before, you realise that they really did mean it and have probably been surprised at the backlash.

    Well done Boris and other Conservatives for condemning it. It demeans us and the whole of politics.
    Absurdly naive

    This story only helps Rayner, and only troubles Boris. And that is bloody obvious. So we can see its provenance quite clearly

    BTW I don't blame Rayner's team for planting it, if it was them. Politics is a rough business and Boris presents an easy target in this context

    Unless the Mail on Sunday fabricated its "Tory MP" sources knowing it was really a story from Labour, it was definitely planted by the Conservatives. I suppose it was a "seemed like a good idea at the time" mistake.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,663

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Is 46% on a 2022 exit too high?

    What do you guys think would happen if the letters do trigger a VOC? I'm far from certain that Johnson would lose it.

    Yep, it’s one thing to get 54 letters, but the rebels need to be sure they have the 180 votes required to win. I’m not sure they do.
    Once a dam breaks it breaks
    Yes I think that's true. Many Tory MPs are spineless fence-sitters who will rush to ditch Johnson once they see the momentum swing against him.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Scott_xP said:

    However much you detest the story, it's not the business of politicians to call in editors for stories they don't like. https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1518584470751879171

    They always have and always will.

    Strong editors should ignore them
  • JonathanBarnesJonathanBarnes Posts: 70
    edited April 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Labour only led by 38% to 31% in the NEV in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in the West Midlands and Scotland now where they are likely to hold up reasonably well IMO even if they do very badly in the Northern Mets vote wise.

    Therefore I'd probably predict something like Lab 35% Con 33% LD 16%. Greens could also do well on the upside.

    Admittedly I now think the LDs could be higher (despite the lack of favourable areas up) as they might now smash it out of the park in southern councils like Somerset, Woking, S Cambs and St Albans and do well as a protest vote on northern councils like Sunderland, Liverpool and Sheffield.
    - “ … in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in… Scotland now…”

    Huh?

    Scottish Tories polling in the teens* is surely about the same as 2012?

    (*last three Scottish Westminster VI polls, full-sample, SCon VI: 17%, 19%, 19%)
    I can still easily see the Scottish Tories getting 20-23% (compared with 25% in 2017) even if it's more likely SLab comes 2nd in council seats now. Given they under nominated on various councils like Aberdeenshire, Angus, Moray, Dumfries and Galloway, Perth and Kinross, Argyll and Bute (Helensburgh) etc last time I can't see how they lose much more than 20-30 councillors in Scotland on a bad day (even factoring in a poor result in Aberdeen City, Edinburgh, Glasgow and parts of the central belt like North Lanarkshire where they only scraped councillors last time).
    Scottish Tories getting 20-23% would be an utter disaster. Conservative turnout is always higher in these less-important elections than it is in biggies. A Scottish Tory vote of 20-23% in council elections would equate with approx 15% in a parliamentary election (Edinburgh or London); ie. humiliation.
    Yes which is why I don't see Douglas Ross/Scottish Tories getting 'humiliated', I wouldn't be shocked if they even maintained their 25%.

    I only expect them to do really badly in Edinburgh (with the main beneficiaries being LDs and to a small amount Labour) and squeezed out in their weakest wards in Aberdeen City and the central belt where they got a maximum of 20% last time.


    I'd probably predict something like

    SNP 34% (+2)
    Lab 23% (+3)
    Con 23% (-2)
    LD 8% (+1)
    Grn 6% (+2)

    Turnout ~48%

    I won't do an exact seats prediction but I can also still see SLab being the largest party on a few councils like East Lothian, North Lanarkshire, West Dunbartonshire and maybe even Glasgow. LD strength will be overwhelmingly concentrated in Edinburgh, Fife and the Highlands.

    Aberdeen City and Dundee will probably be the SNP's best results.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662

    Hearing Rachel Reeves say she was "pleased" Labour lost in 2019 made me finally agree to join the data breach class action against Labour.

    That's gonna really hurt the Tories.

    How stupid are you to think that attacking Labour is the way to promote the Left in this country?
    I am a Socialist

    Labour is not.

    It wrote to me to tell me my data had been breached at a time when my data should have been deleted as per its own T&Cs as I had left the Party.

    I am not a Labour supporter so tough titties
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Is 46% on a 2022 exit too high?

    What do you guys think would happen if the letters do trigger a VOC? I'm far from certain that Johnson would lose it.

    Yep, it’s one thing to get 54 letters, but the rebels need to be sure they have the 180 votes required to win. I’m not sure they do.
    Once a dam breaks it breaks
    Crying won't help you, praying won't do you no good
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218

    kle4 said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    The EU isn't hostile? They've had a funny way of showing it in recent years.
    Political disagreements do not amount to hostility. Idiots in the EU and the UK just have an interest escalating rhetoric and petty sniping.
    I guess the depressing thing is that if anyone in this country can believe that the EU is either a state or hostile then there is an even higher level of stupidity in this country than many of us feared. Such people ought to do a quick trip to Ukraine to see what hostile looks like.
    But if the EU isn't a state, and if it isn't particularly hostile[1], then the heroic aspect that some people desperately craved vanishes in a puff of smoke.

    The generation that actually remembered WW2 tended Remain. It's the generation below, the ones who remember being told the stories, who tended Leave[2].

    [1] Yes, the EU was pompous and dogmatic in negotiation, using its size advantage to get what it wanted- which was to slot the UK into a position on the same alignment/access scale as everywhere else. We got to choose the option we preferred from their list. But the denial of some sort of special Mates Rate doesn't equal hostility.

    [2] Gross oversimplification, of course. But one senses the fear among some that their one bid for going down in history is going to go up in flames.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,835
    FF43 said:

    ,,

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I'm still wondering why MoS thought the Angela Rayner story was a good idea? Anyone?

    I'm fairly sure it was planted to help her, and hinder Boris

    It's a clever piece of spin, either by anti-Boris-ite Tories, or Rayner's team
    No I'm sorry neither the MoS nor the anti-Boris faction are that wily.

    This was the latest in a long list of dreadful and hateful tripe from the Mail stable. Once you realise what has come before, you realise that they really did mean it and have probably been surprised at the backlash.

    Well done Boris and other Conservatives for condemning it. It demeans us and the whole of politics.
    Absurdly naive

    This story only helps Rayner, and only troubles Boris. And that is bloody obvious. So we can see its provenance quite clearly

    BTW I don't blame Rayner's team for planting it, if it was them. Politics is a rough business and Boris presents an easy target in this context

    Unless the Mail on Sunday fabricated its "Tory MP" sources knowing it was really a story from Labour, it was definitely planted by the Conservatives. I suppose it was a "seemed like a good idea at the time" mistake.
    Bit more than just a mistake. IANAL but I wonder whether it is criminal sexual harassment to accuse a woman of committing sexual harassment in the workplace just because she dresses normally and smartly.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,557
    edited April 2022

    Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Labour only led by 38% to 31% in the NEV in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in the West Midlands and Scotland now where they are likely to hold up reasonably well IMO even if they do very badly in the Northern Mets vote wise.

    Therefore I'd probably predict something like Lab 35% Con 33% LD 16%. Greens could also do well on the upside.

    Admittedly I now think the LDs could be higher (despite the lack of favourable areas up) as they might now smash it out of the park in southern councils like Somerset, Woking, S Cambs and St Albans and do well as a protest vote on northern councils like Sunderland, Liverpool and Sheffield.
    - “ … in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in… Scotland now…”

    Huh?

    Scottish Tories polling in the teens* is surely about the same as 2012?

    (*last three Scottish Westminster VI polls, full-sample, SCon VI: 17%, 19%, 19%)
    I can still easily see the Scottish Tories getting 20-23% (compared with 25% in 2017) even if it's more likely SLab comes 2nd in council seats now. Given they under nominated on various councils like Aberdeenshire, Angus, Moray, Dumfries and Galloway, Perth and Kinross, Argyll and Bute (Helensburgh) etc last time I can't see how they lose much more than 20-30 councillors in Scotland on a bad day (even factoring in a poor result in Aberdeen City, Edinburgh, Glasgow and parts of the central belt like North Lanarkshire where they only scraped councillors last time).
    Scottish Tories getting 20-23% would be an utter disaster. Conservative turnout is always higher in these less-important elections than it is in biggies. A Scottish Tory vote of 20-23% in council elections would equate with approx 15% in a parliamentary election (Edinburgh or London); ie. humiliation.
    Not related, but it's interesting that a Tory councillor has already been elected unopposed in the Western Isles. Maybe he's a popular local figure.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647
    boulay said:

    Roger said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Remain would win.
    You cannot remain when you have left

    You can rejoin but as none of the major parties apart from the SNP are going to offer rejoin then as I have said many times before, these extreme leavers and remainers need to work with the majority of ordinary voters to promote much better UK-EU relationships on defence, security and trade
    There would also be the issue that “rejoin” would be very unlikely to be accepted by the EU on the previous terms and would likely be a negative for rejoiners in a re-run.
    We wouldn't know the terms until we submit a formal application to Rejoin, and obviously those would be subject to negotiation. Previous terms are unlikely, but neither Shengen nor the Euro are compulsory, the latter in practice certainly.
  • Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Labour only led by 38% to 31% in the NEV in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in the West Midlands and Scotland now where they are likely to hold up reasonably well IMO even if they do very badly in the Northern Mets vote wise.

    Therefore I'd probably predict something like Lab 35% Con 33% LD 16%. Greens could also do well on the upside.

    Admittedly I now think the LDs could be higher (despite the lack of favourable areas up) as they might now smash it out of the park in southern councils like Somerset, Woking, S Cambs and St Albans and do well as a protest vote on northern councils like Sunderland, Liverpool and Sheffield.
    - “ … in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in… Scotland now…”

    Huh?

    Scottish Tories polling in the teens* is surely about the same as 2012?

    (*last three Scottish Westminster VI polls, full-sample, SCon VI: 17%, 19%, 19%)
    I can still easily see the Scottish Tories getting 20-23% (compared with 25% in 2017) even if it's more likely SLab comes 2nd in council seats now. Given they under nominated on various councils like Aberdeenshire, Angus, Moray, Dumfries and Galloway, Perth and Kinross, Argyll and Bute (Helensburgh) etc last time I can't see how they lose much more than 20-30 councillors in Scotland on a bad day (even factoring in a poor result in Aberdeen City, Edinburgh, Glasgow and parts of the central belt like North Lanarkshire where they only scraped councillors last time).
    Scottish Tories getting 20-23% would be an utter disaster. Conservative turnout is always higher in these less-important elections than it is in biggies. A Scottish Tory vote of 20-23% in council elections would equate with approx 15% in a parliamentary election (Edinburgh or London); ie. humiliation.
    Not related, but it's interesting that a Tory councillor has already been elected unopposed in the Western Isles. Maybe he's a popular local figure.
    Happened in a few other places, Labour also got a councillor elected in Shetland unopposed.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    Timmycool said:

    Leon said:

    Do we have any Alabama experts on the board today?

    I have one day here in the far north west bit. Tuscumbia/Muscle Shoals. By the mighty Tennessee River

    I was gonna hike the river or some canyons.... but it's decided to rain. Heavily (the first day of bad weather after a week of pure sun - which returns tomorrow, huzzah)

    Things To Do In Alabama When It Rains. Are there any? I thought of driving to Alabama's Most Depressing Town, say Selma, or Bessemer, to indulge in a day of Full on Feasting on American Declinism, but are they that bad? I want BAD. I want Mississippi BAD. Detroit BAD. Shuttered streets, empty factories, fentanyl addicts, desolate malls, maybe a rich Woke student shouting at poor white people about their privilege - in the rain.

    Where can I get that?

    Quick YouTube (there are channels dedicated to driving the "hood" of these kind of places), Bessemer looks pretty bad. Worst of those kind of places I have been, Gary, Indiana.
    Gary, Indiana at one point was the murder capital of the US. You are right, FU, it is a horrible little town on the Southwest corner of Lake Michigan. So depressing. Stopped once on the way from Chicago to Warsaw, Indiana and my hosts were amazed I'd gotten out alive!!!
    I know Indiana quite well from the David Soul song Silver Lady. The wind and rain cuts through you, there, and leaves you chilled to the bone. Bleak, as you say. Best to play the song rather than visit. This applies to quite a few places in America, come to think of it. Galverston is another good example. Just play the song and leave it at that.
    Sorry, K, but you do not know shit about Indiana, which is a VERY diverse state plenty of great places & people from Lake Michigan dunes to the banks of the Ohio River. Or Galveston for that matter.

    Ignorance does NOT become you.
    Yes, I'm sure. Only kidding. Or only not kidding in the sense there often IS a mismatch between how a song makes a place sound and the more prosiac reality of that place - and since songs usually talk about American places it's American places that are romanticized (in this way) the most. Pity but that's how it is.

    By the time I got to Romford.
    I wish they all could be Liverpudlian girls.
    It took me 4 days to hitchhike from Doncaster
    And now he's leaving ... on the midnight train to Chester.

    We lack the cultural confidence to write this sort of stuff.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,283

    Leon said:

    kinabalu said:

    Leon said:

    Heathener said:

    Leon said:

    GIN1138 said:

    I'm still wondering why MoS thought the Angela Rayner story was a good idea? Anyone?

    I'm fairly sure it was planted to help her, and hinder Boris

    It's a clever piece of spin, either by anti-Boris-ite Tories, or Rayner's team
    No I'm sorry neither the MoS nor the anti-Boris faction are that wily.

    This was the latest in a long list of dreadful and hateful tripe from the Mail stable. Once you realise what has come before, you realise that they really did mean it and have probably been surprised at the backlash.

    Well done Boris and other Conservatives for condemning it. It demeans us and the whole of politics.
    Absurdly naive

    This story only helps Rayner, and only troubles Boris. And that is bloody obvious. So we can see its provenance quite clearly

    BTW I don't blame Rayner's team for planting it, if it was them. Politics is a rough business and Boris presents an easy target in this context
    Femme fatale cynically employs her physical assets to try and put the PM off his stride in the House of Commons and blunt his Oxford University debating skills. But he refuses to play her sordid little game. He ploughs on manfully with the serious business of running the country.

    I don't quite see how this is supposed to help her and damage "Boris".
    Look at how this story has unfolded, entirely predictably. Tories apologising everywhere, Boris looking like a salacious old git, Rayner's profile heightened, even as she gets the sympathy of the political world

    You'd need an IQ of less than about 103 to be unable to foresee these consequences. This explains your muted reaction, you too are very slightly more intelligent than the average, but only VERY slightly. 103.

    It's right on the edge of your abilities of comprehension, and you're not sure what to make of it. You stare at it quizzically, like a crow looking at a mirror
    You on the other hand are so dumb you have decided that an obnoxious, salacious, misogynist story about Rayner is the fault of... Rayner herself.
    Leon always blames the woman
    Ouch lol!
  • Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Is 46% on a 2022 exit too high?

    What do you guys think would happen if the letters do trigger a VOC? I'm far from certain that Johnson would lose it.

    Yep, it’s one thing to get 54 letters, but the rebels need to be sure they have the 180 votes required to win. I’m not sure they do.
    Once a dam breaks it breaks
    I remain of the opinion Boris will be out of office by the 31st May
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,652
    First polling for the French Assembly elections has Macron’s party heading for another overall majority - and the centre and left combined with about 75% of the seats. The RN set to overtake the mainstream right.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,581
    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Roger said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Remain would win.
    You cannot remain when you have left

    You can rejoin but as none of the major parties apart from the SNP are going to offer rejoin then as I have said many times before, these extreme leavers and remainers need to work with the majority of ordinary voters to promote much better UK-EU relationships on defence, security and trade
    There would also be the issue that “rejoin” would be very unlikely to be accepted by the EU on the previous terms and would likely be a negative for rejoiners in a re-run.
    We wouldn't know the terms until we submit a formal application to Rejoin, and obviously those would be subject to negotiation. Previous terms are unlikely, but neither Shengen nor the Euro are compulsory, the latter in practice certainly.
    Keep on dreaming.

    In the pandemic, and during this current Ukraine crisis, we have seen significant EU players go against common sense. I voted remain; but who wants to be in the same club where the leader of one country calls AZ 'quasi-ineffective' and another essentially backs Putin because of their own base desires for gas?

    Why do you want to be a member of that club?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    kle4 said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    The EU isn't hostile? They've had a funny way of showing it in recent years.
    Political disagreements do not amount to hostility. Idiots in the EU and the UK just have an interest escalating rhetoric and petty sniping.
    I guess the depressing thing is that if anyone in this country can believe that the EU is either a state or hostile then there is an even higher level of stupidity in this country than many of us feared. Such people ought to do a quick trip to Ukraine to see what hostile looks like.
    But if the EU isn't a state, and if it isn't particularly hostile[1], then the heroic aspect that some people desperately craved vanishes in a puff of smoke.

    The generation that actually remembered WW2 tended Remain. It's the generation below, the ones who remember being told the stories, who tended Leave[2].

    [1] Yes, the EU was pompous and dogmatic in negotiation, using its size advantage to get what it wanted- which was to slot the UK into a position on the same alignment/access scale as everywhere else. We got to choose the option we preferred from their list. But the denial of some sort of special Mates Rate doesn't equal hostility.

    [2] Gross oversimplification, of course. But one senses the fear among some that their one bid for going down in history is going to go up in flames.
    Interesting point re the WW2 generation, as opposed to the generation below that were brought up on war comics, the Daily Express and Mail and more latterly, of course, Facebook (or Boomerbook as my kids call it).
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    IshmaelZ said:

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Is 46% on a 2022 exit too high?

    What do you guys think would happen if the letters do trigger a VOC? I'm far from certain that Johnson would lose it.

    Yep, it’s one thing to get 54 letters, but the rebels need to be sure they have the 180 votes required to win. I’m not sure they do.
    Once a dam breaks it breaks
    Crying won't help you, praying won't do you no good
    When the levee breaks Boris you gotta go
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Timmycool said:

    Leon said:

    Do we have any Alabama experts on the board today?

    I have one day here in the far north west bit. Tuscumbia/Muscle Shoals. By the mighty Tennessee River

    I was gonna hike the river or some canyons.... but it's decided to rain. Heavily (the first day of bad weather after a week of pure sun - which returns tomorrow, huzzah)

    Things To Do In Alabama When It Rains. Are there any? I thought of driving to Alabama's Most Depressing Town, say Selma, or Bessemer, to indulge in a day of Full on Feasting on American Declinism, but are they that bad? I want BAD. I want Mississippi BAD. Detroit BAD. Shuttered streets, empty factories, fentanyl addicts, desolate malls, maybe a rich Woke student shouting at poor white people about their privilege - in the rain.

    Where can I get that?

    Quick YouTube (there are channels dedicated to driving the "hood" of these kind of places), Bessemer looks pretty bad. Worst of those kind of places I have been, Gary, Indiana.
    Gary, Indiana at one point was the murder capital of the US. You are right, FU, it is a horrible little town on the Southwest corner of Lake Michigan. So depressing. Stopped once on the way from Chicago to Warsaw, Indiana and my hosts were amazed I'd gotten out alive!!!
    I know Indiana quite well from the David Soul song Silver Lady. The wind and rain cuts through you, there, and leaves you chilled to the bone. Bleak, as you say. Best to play the song rather than visit. This applies to quite a few places in America, come to think of it. Galverston is another good example. Just play the song and leave it at that.
    Sorry, K, but you do not know shit about Indiana, which is a VERY diverse state plenty of great places & people from Lake Michigan dunes to the banks of the Ohio River. Or Galveston for that matter.

    Ignorance does NOT become you.
    Yes, I'm sure. Only kidding. Or only not kidding in the sense there often IS a mismatch between how a song makes a place sound and the more prosiac reality of that place - and since songs usually talk about American places it's American places that are romanticized (in this way) the most. Pity but that's how it is.

    By the time I got to Romford.
    I wish they all could be Liverpudlian girls.
    It took me 4 days to hitchhike from Doncaster
    And now he's leaving ... on the midnight train to Chester.

    We lack the cultural confidence to write this sort of stuff.
    Busted flat in Bognor Regis, waiting for a train
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,283
    edited April 2022
    kle4 said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    The EU isn't hostile? They've had a funny way of showing it in recent years.
    Political disagreements do not amount to hostility. Idiots in the EU and the UK just have an interest escalating rhetoric and petty sniping.
    They did try and steal our vaccines, which I took to be somewhat hostile...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    kle4 said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    The EU isn't hostile? They've had a funny way of showing it in recent years.
    Political disagreements do not amount to hostility. Idiots in the EU and the UK just have an interest escalating rhetoric and petty sniping.
    I guess the depressing thing is that if anyone in this country can believe that the EU is either a state or hostile then there is an even higher level of stupidity in this country than many of us feared. Such people ought to do a quick trip to Ukraine to see what hostile looks like.
    In todays yougov 5% of Britons (9% of Leavers, 8% of Conservatives) think France is generally a hostile threat to Britain.


  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Do we have any Alabama experts on the board today?

    I have one day here in the far north west bit. Tuscumbia/Muscle Shoals. By the mighty Tennessee River

    I was gonna hike the river or some canyons.... but it's decided to rain. Heavily (the first day of bad weather after a week of pure sun - which returns tomorrow, huzzah)

    Things To Do In Alabama When It Rains. Are there any? I thought of driving to Alabama's Most Depressing Town, say Selma, or Bessemer, to indulge in a day of Full on Feasting on American Declinism, but are they that bad? I want BAD. I want Mississippi BAD. Detroit BAD. Shuttered streets, empty factories, fentanyl addicts, desolate malls, maybe a rich Woke student shouting at poor white people about their privilege - in the rain.

    Where can I get that?

    Quick YouTube (there are channels dedicated to driving the "hood" of these kind of places), Bessemer looks pretty bad. Worst of those kind of places I have been, Gary, Indiana.
    I was in a debate the other night with some Americans about The Worst Place in America and they decided Terre Haute Indiana takes some beating (I've never been there, so I have no idea)

    It does sound like Indiana is pretty grim

    The thing about Cities of American Decline in the south is that they still have the nice climate. OK you're dirt poor, but you can sit on a pile of used tyres and take ket in your tee shirt

    In the Rustbelt north, they have those long bitter winters and grey skies, which must make it way more depressing

    Terre Haute is where Stephen King’s Trashcan Man comes from…
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    The EU isn't hostile? They've had a funny way of showing it in recent years.
    Political disagreements do not amount to hostility. Idiots in the EU and the UK just have an interest escalating rhetoric and petty sniping.
    They did try and steal our vaccines, which I tool to be somewhat hostile...
    Politically unfriendly, but it was hardly firing artillery at East Anglia
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Labour only led by 38% to 31% in the NEV in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in the West Midlands and Scotland now where they are likely to hold up reasonably well IMO even if they do very badly in the Northern Mets vote wise.

    Therefore I'd probably predict something like Lab 35% Con 33% LD 16%. Greens could also do well on the upside.

    Admittedly I now think the LDs could be higher (despite the lack of favourable areas up) as they might now smash it out of the park in southern councils like Somerset, Woking, S Cambs and St Albans and do well as a protest vote on northern councils like Sunderland, Liverpool and Sheffield.
    - “ … in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in… Scotland now…”

    Huh?

    Scottish Tories polling in the teens* is surely about the same as 2012?

    (*last three Scottish Westminster VI polls, full-sample, SCon VI: 17%, 19%, 19%)
    I can still easily see the Scottish Tories getting 20-23% (compared with 25% in 2017) even if it's more likely SLab comes 2nd in council seats now. Given they under nominated on various councils like Aberdeenshire, Angus, Moray, Dumfries and Galloway, Perth and Kinross, Argyll and Bute (Helensburgh) etc last time I can't see how they lose much more than 20-30 councillors in Scotland on a bad day (even factoring in a poor result in Aberdeen City, Edinburgh, Glasgow and parts of the central belt like North Lanarkshire where they only scraped councillors last time).
    Scottish Tories getting 20-23% would be an utter disaster. Conservative turnout is always higher in these less-important elections than it is in biggies. A Scottish Tory vote of 20-23% in council elections would equate with approx 15% in a parliamentary election (Edinburgh or London); ie. humiliation.
    Not related, but it's interesting that a Tory councillor has already been elected unopposed in the Western Isles. Maybe he's a popular local figure.
    Sound very similar to situation in thinly-populated rural areas in the great Evergreen State of Washington. Where local jurisdictions frequently find it difficult to recruit ANYONE for positions on local councils and boards.

    Requiring an investment in time & energy, generally with little or no compensation (often they end up spending their own money for whatever) with opportunity to become a punching bag whenever some resident nut, visiting activist or intrepid journalist takes a notion.

    ADDENDUM - Which is why I respect PBers and others, regardless of party, ideology or whether I like them, who devote some of their own precious time to serving in local government with any sincerity and even IF they are using it as a starting point up the greasy poll.

    Not that I'd vote for most of 'em mind. But that's a different matter, plenty of politicos I respect and do NOT support with my suffering suffrage.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 12,986
    Anyone posted this yet?

    BREAKING: Explosions have been reported in Tiraspol, which is located in Moldova’s breakaway region of Transnistria

    https://twitter.com/SamRamani2/status/1518618906742636550?s=20&t=8CLN2abz1i2UCPcyLjQCig

    In for a penny and all that?
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,249
    Leon said:

    TimT said:

    Leon said:

    Do we have any Alabama experts on the board today?

    I have one day here in the far north west bit. Tuscumbia/Muscle Shoals. By the mighty Tennessee River

    I was gonna hike the river or some canyons.... but it's decided to rain. Heavily (the first day of bad weather after a week of pure sun - which returns tomorrow, huzzah)

    Things To Do In Alabama When It Rains. Are there any? I thought of driving to Alabama's Most Depressing Town, say Selma, or Bessemer, to indulge in a day of Full on Feasting on American Declinism, but are they that bad? I want BAD. I want Mississippi BAD. Detroit BAD. Shuttered streets, empty factories, fentanyl addicts, desolate malls, maybe a rich Woke student shouting at poor white people about their privilege - in the rain.

    Where can I get that?

    Looks like the area immediately to the west of Montgomery. Wilcox (Camden) and Perry (Marion) counties are to two poorest counties in the state and are adjacent to each other. Per capita income is $12,573 and $13,433 compared to $66,060 for the US as a whole.

    Must be some real poverty in the backcountry there ...
    Can I prey on your wisdom once more?

    At the end of this trip I have ten days spare when it is better for me to be out of the UK (long story, not as exciting as it sounds)

    This road trip has been such fun I'm tempted to do another on my own dime. But where? I've seen the southwest deserts many times, so appealing as they are: no. I am sorely tempted by the Wyoming/Dakota area, all that natural spleandour, but the weather looks a bit cold, and I am enjoying the warmth. That also rules out the northern bits of New England like Maine which I have not seen

    Which leaves more of the Deep South?

    I am drawn to the Carolinas, nice mix of mountains, cities, poverty, wealth, coastline, history? Or is Georgia better? Virginia? Kentucky? Any thoughts? I want variety and history and a feel of remoteness on the backroads....
    How about the classic - PCH from Seattle to San Diego?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,647

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Roger said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Remain would win.
    You cannot remain when you have left

    You can rejoin but as none of the major parties apart from the SNP are going to offer rejoin then as I have said many times before, these extreme leavers and remainers need to work with the majority of ordinary voters to promote much better UK-EU relationships on defence, security and trade
    There would also be the issue that “rejoin” would be very unlikely to be accepted by the EU on the previous terms and would likely be a negative for rejoiners in a re-run.
    We wouldn't know the terms until we submit a formal application to Rejoin, and obviously those would be subject to negotiation. Previous terms are unlikely, but neither Shengen nor the Euro are compulsory, the latter in practice certainly.
    Keep on dreaming.

    In the pandemic, and during this current Ukraine crisis, we have seen significant EU players go against common sense. I voted remain; but who wants to be in the same club where the leader of one country calls AZ 'quasi-ineffective' and another essentially backs Putin because of their own base desires for gas?

    Why do you want to be a member of that club?
    So you think we should withdraw from NATO, for that too is a club?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Foxy said:

    kle4 said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    The EU isn't hostile? They've had a funny way of showing it in recent years.
    Political disagreements do not amount to hostility. Idiots in the EU and the UK just have an interest escalating rhetoric and petty sniping.
    I guess the depressing thing is that if anyone in this country can believe that the EU is either a state or hostile then there is an even higher level of stupidity in this country than many of us feared. Such people ought to do a quick trip to Ukraine to see what hostile looks like.
    In todays yougov 5% of Britons (9% of Leavers, 8% of Conservatives) think France is generally a hostile threat to Britain.


    They definitely ought to be given a one way ticket to Mariupol. Thick twats.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,283

    GIN1138 said:

    kle4 said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Applicant said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Much too late, surely.
    Yeah it is, we’re out, it’s done.

    But it wouldn’t look good, to say the least. Especially if the government knew and simply ignored it for, well, politics. For their backbenchers. For whatever reason. Not now Russia’s the baddie, unequivocally.

    I don’t think it’ll get that far. It’s just interesting to ponder the hypothetical fallout.
    I'm not sure telling 17 million voters "you're so stupid you only voted that way because of Russian money" would be very successful, tbh.
    Perhaps, but it isn't quite that simple. Most people are very susceptible to remarketing via social media. Anyone that thinks themselves immune is probably the most suggestible.
    Given the amount of pro-Remain rigging that Cameron did, complaining about a bit of Russian money on the other side seems a little churlish.
    Well done for winning this years Dumbest Comment on PB Award. You seriously think we should not be concerned about a hostile state trying to subvert our democratic system? FFS!
    We were.

    It's why we voted to Leave the EU.
    It is not a state and it is not hostile. Do you use Facebook?
    The EU isn't hostile? They've had a funny way of showing it in recent years.
    Political disagreements do not amount to hostility. Idiots in the EU and the UK just have an interest escalating rhetoric and petty sniping.
    They did try and steal our vaccines, which I tool to be somewhat hostile...
    Politically unfriendly, but it was hardly firing artillery at East Anglia
    I would say somewhere between "politically unfriendly" and "all out war" - so "hostile" would be an appropriate description in the circumstances.

    Things do seem to have calmed down in the past few months though thankfully...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    boulay said:

    Roger said:

    Am I trolling here? Perhaps just a little bit, so I apologise. But these crazy cats are trying to take this to court. I’m not sure whether I admire them or think they’re batshit crazy…



    More detail here - https://www.eucitizenship.org/news/article/15

    I know it probably won’t happen, but what if it did, what if they could get a court to declare that the referendum wasn’t a free and fair election cos of Russian interference? God that would unleash a shitstorm.

    I mean, I’m as Remainy as they come but Jesus, I’m not sure I’d want to go through something like that…

    Remain would win.
    You cannot remain when you have left

    You can rejoin but as none of the major parties apart from the SNP are going to offer rejoin then as I have said many times before, these extreme leavers and remainers need to work with the majority of ordinary voters to promote much better UK-EU relationships on defence, security and trade
    There would also be the issue that “rejoin” would be very unlikely to be accepted by the EU on the previous terms and would likely be a negative for rejoiners in a re-run.
    We wouldn't know the terms until we submit a formal application to Rejoin, and obviously those would be subject to negotiation. Previous terms are unlikely, but neither Shengen nor the Euro are compulsory, the latter in practice certainly.
    Keep on dreaming.

    In the pandemic, and during this current Ukraine crisis, we have seen significant EU players go against common sense. I voted remain; but who wants to be in the same club where the leader of one country calls AZ 'quasi-ineffective' and another essentially backs Putin because of their own base desires for gas?

    Why do you want to be a member of that club?
    So you think we should withdraw from NATO, for that too is a club?
    Those US bases certainly impinge on our precious sovereignty just a bit!
  • CatManCatMan Posts: 3,058
    edited April 2022

    Sandpit said:

    Stocky said:

    Is 46% on a 2022 exit too high?

    What do you guys think would happen if the letters do trigger a VOC? I'm far from certain that Johnson would lose it.

    Yep, it’s one thing to get 54 letters, but the rebels need to be sure they have the 180 votes required to win. I’m not sure they do.
    Once a dam breaks it breaks
    Yes I think that's true. Many Tory MPs are spineless fence-sitters who will rush to ditch Johnson once they see the momentum swing against him.
    Didn't JRM say after May won her VOC that she should resign anyway? Would be interesting to see what he says if that happened with Boris (which would probably involve ignoring his previous views)
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,283
    30 minutes until Sun TV launches...
This discussion has been closed.