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ITV News: “46 CON MPs might have sent confidence vote letters” – politicalbetting.com

I think that we are going to get quite a lot of reports like this until it actually happens and a serious move to oust Johnson is taking place.
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https://watch.talk.tv/
Looks like they are giving GB News a running for shit website (its more bare bones than a normal night at Spearmint Rhino) and crap programmes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections
If they happen before the locals and the Blue Meanies have a bad night, it'll get blamed on the MPs, rather than rightly on the PM.
That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.
BREWIS
"Pour boiling water on a crust of bread; pour the water off and it is ready; season with salt and pepper. Serve in a breakfast cup and eat with a spoon"
"Good Things in England", Florence White, 1932
He either doesn't know when the picture might improve, or he does not care.
In that scenario, it is no wonder he is close to the edge.
What do you guys think would happen if the letters do trigger a VOC? I'm far from certain that Johnson would lose it.
The co-leader of Germany’s Social Democratic party (SPD) has urged the former chancellor Gerhard Schröder to hand in his party membership after he made clear in an interview that he had no intention to resign from his seats on the boards of Russian energy companies over the war in Ukraine.
Can the SPD not expel members?
All real news stories say something actual in the indicative, which can in due course be evaluated as true or false. Put this in same bin as all the coverage about how Le Pen 'may' and 'could' be the president of France, and how this 5 million gap between vote numbers was going top be a close run thing.
Even after the change of leader and the attempt to move on, I expect "you supported Boris Johnson" will cling to the political careers of a stack of these MPs. It won't matter if they write a letter now because too many councillors lost their seats, if they publicly endorsed the man over the last few weeks they are going to be branded with it.
Therefore I'd probably predict something like Lab 35% Con 33% LD 16%. Greens could also do well on the upside.
Admittedly I now think the LDs could be higher (despite the lack of favourable areas up) as they might now smash it out of the park in southern councils like Somerset, Woking, S Cambs and St Albans and do well as a protest vote on northern councils like Sunderland, Liverpool and Sheffield.
The people who do know and care, the OBR, are saying (roughly) that (i) there are Very Bad Times just around the corner and (ii) don't hold your breath for what we have historically understood as noticeably good times.
For all I want someone else to be PM, why would anyone with sense and ambiton want to take over? The bad stuff is set to happen, and there's very little anyone can do about it now.
Also, we can't sack BoZo, cos his successor might not get Brexit done...
Ummm...
I think a lot will depend on who succeeds Boris and whether they pursue the Levelling-Up Agenda and can wear a hard-hat with any conviction.
Keir Starmer is not a shoo-in in these places.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJnwV-sNKuA
Not so sure about your second point. I don't think association with BJ is quite as disastrous as you may think. He may easily come to be seen as a consequential PM brought down by, yes, certainly his own faults, but all the same, someone who got stuff done. I really don't think "you supported Boris Johnson" will be the death knell for anyone's political career. Anymore than support for J Corbyn has proven to be, so long as they move on.
Labour have managed to successfully purge their last leader, to the new leader’s credit.
I grabbed a quick beer before moving into the departure lounge. I was entertained by the little girl (four years old, I heard her declare) in the background, who’s been dancing and singing, in excellent English - I think to a Disney song - to her mum on the right.
Vote now.
His refusal to scrap the green levy, even temporarily, to help out on the cost of living was a massive error, and showed how disconnected he is.
Apart from outliers the only way Boris is out is a Tory MP vote, for which the 54 letters are essential.
So there is a two stage process; and it is reasonable to regard them thus:
chances of 54 letters this year: evens
chances of losing if there were a vote: evens.
So about a 25% chance of Boris exit in 2022, but add a few % points for accident, black swan, so between 25 and 30% chance. Hills have it at about evens. This is wrong. The value is on 2023 exit (5/1).
ISTM that that is potentially still very variable.
He's collaborating with Nazis, and profiting from it. Germany should be revoking his citizenship, not questioning his SPD party membership
Sir Graham Brady.
A lot of people would be nervous if he got binned - what might he say? Who might be next?
Ed M held these seats and was almost as unpopular as Corbyn. Just didn’t hate British foreign policy
The problem the Tories have is results cost money. They have shafted the regions by replacing £lots of EU grant money with £little government grant money, locals aren't as stupid as MPs think and are up in arms, and there's a double count issue. As in grant money which is £less than they had before now includes levelling up fund / towns fund monies promised as extras.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/24/all-omens-look-positive-greece-grateful-tourists-flock-back
In my opinion, travel will continue to boom despite everything. There is SO much pent-up demand, so many people are yearning to get out and explore. It's a primal human need that has been repressed for two long terrible years, so people will sacrifice a lot of other things (Netflix subs, dinners out) to get their weeks in the sun or just Be Somewhere Else
I’d be chuffed to buggery if Hunt won.