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ITV News: “46 CON MPs might have sent confidence vote letters” – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 3 in General
imageITV News: “46 CON MPs might have sent confidence vote letters” – politicalbetting.com

I think that we are going to get quite a lot of reports like this until it actually happens and a serious move to oust Johnson is taking place.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    I just realised Murdoch talktv launched today...

    https://watch.talk.tv/

    Looks like they are giving GB News a running for shit website (its more bare bones than a normal night at Spearmint Rhino) and crap programmes.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,246
    Test
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 18,315
    edited April 25
    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,739
    I think we'll hit the threshold after the locals and not before.

    If they happen before the locals and the Blue Meanies have a bad night, it'll get blamed on the MPs, rather than rightly on the PM.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 6,372
    As many as 53 MPs "may" have submitted letters of no confidence.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think we'll hit the threshold after the locals and not before.

    If they happen before the locals and the Blue Meanies have a bad night, it'll get blamed on the MPs, rather than rightly on the PM.

    What happened the last time there were rumours of pile of letters?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 6,715

    BREWIS

    "Pour boiling water on a crust of bread; pour the water off and it is ready; season with salt and pepper. Serve in a breakfast cup and eat with a spoon"

    "Good Things in England", Florence White, 1932
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,739
    Malmesbury said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I think we'll hit the threshold after the locals and not before.

    If they happen before the locals and the Blue Meanies have a bad night, it'll get blamed on the MPs, rather than rightly on the PM.

    What happened the last time there were rumours of pile of letters?
    Russia invaded more of Ukraine.
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,261
    Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    I agree about the likely Tory share but surely opinion polls would lead one to expect Labour to be a lot higher. Is this to do with the more limited nature of the seats being contested this time?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 4,780
    BartholomewRoberts said:

    As many as 53 MPs "may" have submitted letters of no confidence.

    Yeh, but 52 of them are Labour MPs so don't count.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 7,080
    @TOPPING @JosiasJessop @Stocky FPT thanks for your comments. I do plan to swim and cycle as part of my recovery, but that is too early currently. Told not to yet and couldn't anyway.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    Hopefully we are seeing the closing weeks of having a clown for PM
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,163
    Johnson's massive problem for me is that he is not spelling out when the economic hard times might end. There is no 'things are going to be rotten for a while but will get better by xyz as our plan works'

    He either doesn't know when the picture might improve, or he does not care.

    In that scenario, it is no wonder he is close to the edge.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,163
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    MISTY said:

    Johnson's massive problem for me is that he is not spelling out when the economic hard times might end. There is no 'things are going to be rotten for a while but will get better by xyz as our plan works'

    He either doesn't know when the picture might improve, or he does not care.

    In that scenario, it is no wonder he is close to the edge.

    There is no either. he doesn't know AND he does not care
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,482
    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    I agree about the likely Tory share but surely opinion polls would lead one to expect Labour to be a lot higher. Is this to do with the more limited nature of the seats being contested this time?
    I suspect more that Lib Dems are (a lot of the time) very good at winning votes in local elections in a way that doesn't translate to General Elections.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,256
    Is 46% on a 2022 exit too high?

    What do you guys think would happen if the letters do trigger a VOC? I'm far from certain that Johnson would lose it.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,394
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/germanys-spd-calls-on-gerhard-schroder-to-resign-over-russia-links

    The co-leader of Germany’s Social Democratic party (SPD) has urged the former chancellor Gerhard Schröder to hand in his party membership after he made clear in an interview that he had no intention to resign from his seats on the boards of Russian energy companies over the war in Ukraine.

    Can the SPD not expel members?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    "The Red Wall" is already lost to the Tories, it always was once Corbyn was gone. Hunt would need to shore up support elsewhere and maybe retain a few of the so-called "Red Wall" seats. The mythology that Johnson apologists put up about his "man of the people" status with the "red wall" plebs (as most of his apologists see them) makes me want to laugh and simultaneously vomit.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,256
    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    Well, I see your point but would Starmer be any more fragrant to red wall voters?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,209
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    "The Red Wall" is already lost to the Tories, it always was once Corbyn was gone. Hunt would need to shore up support elsewhere and maybe retain a few of the so-called "Red Wall" seats. The mythology that Johnson apologists put up about his "man of the people" status with the "red wall" plebs (as most of his apologists see them) makes me want to laugh and simultaneously vomit.
    Need to look at the latest polling but indeed I thought the Red Wall had swung more to Labour than the rest of the country?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    Stocky said:

    Is 46% on a 2022 exit too high?

    What do you guys think would happen if the letters do trigger a VOC? I'm far from certain that Johnson would lose it.

    I think he will lose. The majority of the PCP hate him and think he is a joke. They only voted him in out of expediency. Expediency will see him kicked out. Only Rees Mogg and Dorries will go down fighting for him because they know no other leader would be dumb enough to leave them in post.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 9,627
    YBarddCwsc said:


    BREWIS

    "Pour boiling water on a crust of bread; pour the water off and it is ready; season with salt and pepper. Serve in a breakfast cup and eat with a spoon"

    "Good Things in England", Florence White, 1932

    Bread and water. Just deserts for voting Tory.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,884
    Contains all the usual non-story words. 'Claims' 'may' 'could'.
    All real news stories say something actual in the indicative, which can in due course be evaluated as true or false. Put this in same bin as all the coverage about how Le Pen 'may' and 'could' be the president of France, and how this 5 million gap between vote numbers was going top be a close run thing.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    "The Red Wall" is already lost to the Tories, it always was once Corbyn was gone. Hunt would need to shore up support elsewhere and maybe retain a few of the so-called "Red Wall" seats. The mythology that Johnson apologists put up about his "man of the people" status with the "red wall" plebs (as most of his apologists see them) makes me want to laugh and simultaneously vomit.
    Need to look at the latest polling but indeed I thought the Red Wall had swung more to Labour than the rest of the country?
    Yep, that is also my understanding. I think Johnson apologists also want us to believe it was all about "get Brexit done" that caused the proletariat to vote for the fat Etonian, but in reality it was a revulsion of all things Corbyn.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,712
    Its clear that he is toast. Last line of defence was "just bluster through it" and that collapsed last Thursday. So its just a question of when, not if.

    Even after the change of leader and the attempt to move on, I expect "you supported Boris Johnson" will cling to the political careers of a stack of these MPs. It won't matter if they write a letter now because too many councillors lost their seats, if they publicly endorsed the man over the last few weeks they are going to be branded with it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/germanys-spd-calls-on-gerhard-schroder-to-resign-over-russia-links

    The co-leader of Germany’s Social Democratic party (SPD) has urged the former chancellor Gerhard Schröder to hand in his party membership after he made clear in an interview that he had no intention to resign from his seats on the boards of Russian energy companies over the war in Ukraine.

    Can the SPD not expel members?

    It's also a matter of Schröder's friends and influence in the party. Imagine trying to expel Tony Blair from Labour....
  • JonathanBarnesJonathanBarnes Posts: 70
    Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Labour only led by 38% to 31% in the NEV in 2012 and the Tories are in a far better position in the West Midlands and Scotland now where they are likely to hold up reasonably well IMO even if they do very badly in the Northern Mets vote wise.

    Therefore I'd probably predict something like Lab 35% Con 33% LD 16%. Greens could also do well on the upside.

    Admittedly I now think the LDs could be higher (despite the lack of favourable areas up) as they might now smash it out of the park in southern councils like Somerset, Woking, S Cambs and St Albans and do well as a protest vote on northern councils like Sunderland, Liverpool and Sheffield.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    StuartDickson said:

    YBarddCwsc said:


    BREWIS

    "Pour boiling water on a crust of bread; pour the water off and it is ready; season with salt and pepper. Serve in a breakfast cup and eat with a spoon"

    "Good Things in England", Florence White, 1932

    Bread and water. Just deserts for voting Tory.
    Sounds like luxury compared to Scottish Indy desserts.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,146
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/germanys-spd-calls-on-gerhard-schroder-to-resign-over-russia-links

    The co-leader of Germany’s Social Democratic party (SPD) has urged the former chancellor Gerhard Schröder to hand in his party membership after he made clear in an interview that he had no intention to resign from his seats on the boards of Russian energy companies over the war in Ukraine.

    Can the SPD not expel members?

    Would set a precedent that may end up with Scholz and other top level SPD people getting expelled.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 6,482
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Johnson's massive problem for me is that he is not spelling out when the economic hard times might end. There is no 'things are going to be rotten for a while but will get better by xyz as our plan works'

    He either doesn't know when the picture might improve, or he does not care.

    In that scenario, it is no wonder he is close to the edge.

    There is no either. he doesn't know AND he does not care
    And that's probably best for BoJo's peace of mind.

    The people who do know and care, the OBR, are saying (roughly) that (i) there are Very Bad Times just around the corner and (ii) don't hold your breath for what we have historically understood as noticeably good times.



    For all I want someone else to be PM, why would anyone with sense and ambiton want to take over? The bad stuff is set to happen, and there's very little anyone can do about it now.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    I think Johnson apologists also want us to believe it was all about "get Brexit done" that caused the proletariat to vote for the fat Etonian

    We can't sack BoZo, he got Brexit done.

    Also, we can't sack BoZo, cos his successor might not get Brexit done...

    Ummm...
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191
    Even if 54 letters are sent to the 1922 Committee, there are 359 Conservative MPs so 180 would have to vote against him in an election for him to leave office.
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Its clear that he is toast. Last line of defence was "just bluster through it" and that collapsed last Thursday. So its just a question of when, not if.

    Even after the change of leader and the attempt to move on, I expect "you supported Boris Johnson" will cling to the political careers of a stack of these MPs. It won't matter if they write a letter now because too many councillors lost their seats, if they publicly endorsed the man over the last few weeks they are going to be branded with it.

    It's always a question of when. Nothing is for ever.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    Stuartinromford said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Johnson's massive problem for me is that he is not spelling out when the economic hard times might end. There is no 'things are going to be rotten for a while but will get better by xyz as our plan works'

    He either doesn't know when the picture might improve, or he does not care.

    In that scenario, it is no wonder he is close to the edge.

    There is no either. he doesn't know AND he does not care
    And that's probably best for BoJo's peace of mind.

    The people who do know and care, the OBR, are saying (roughly) that (i) there are Very Bad Times just around the corner and (ii) don't hold your breath for what we have historically understood as noticeably good times.



    For all I want someone else to be PM, why would anyone with sense and ambiton want to take over? The bad stuff is set to happen, and there's very little anyone can do about it now.
    Because ambitious politicians know that the answer is "if not now, then when?" And they also hope they might be the PM to defy the odds. Less ambitious politicians dither; e.g. Portillo, Miliband, Sunak.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 8,968
    algarkirk said:

    Contains all the usual non-story words. 'Claims' 'may' 'could'.
    All real news stories say something actual in the indicative, which can in due course be evaluated as true or false. Put this in same bin as all the coverage about how Le Pen 'may' and 'could' be the president of France, and how this 5 million gap between vote numbers was going top be a close run thing.

    Which Labour leader(s) saw Labour receive more votes than Le Pen, and in which general election(s)?
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,725
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    "The Red Wall" is already lost to the Tories, it always was once Corbyn was gone. Hunt would need to shore up support elsewhere and maybe retain a few of the so-called "Red Wall" seats. The mythology that Johnson apologists put up about his "man of the people" status with the "red wall" plebs (as most of his apologists see them) makes me want to laugh and simultaneously vomit.
    Not necessarily. Areas like Co Durham, Teesside (pace Ben Houchen), parts of the Midlands, seem to be moving to the Tories over the longer term. We may be seeing a ratchet effect.

    I think a lot will depend on who succeeds Boris and whether they pursue the Levelling-Up Agenda and can wear a hard-hat with any conviction.

    Keir Starmer is not a shoo-in in these places.
  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191
    Can anyone think of an example of a woman using her wiles to win an argument?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    LostPassword said:

    algarkirk said:

    Contains all the usual non-story words. 'Claims' 'may' 'could'.
    All real news stories say something actual in the indicative, which can in due course be evaluated as true or false. Put this in same bin as all the coverage about how Le Pen 'may' and 'could' be the president of France, and how this 5 million gap between vote numbers was going top be a close run thing.

    Which Labour leader(s) saw Labour receive more votes than Le Pen, and in which general election(s)?
    A little irrelevant because it is a completely different system where it is a choice of two!
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    Pensfold said:

    Can anyone think of an example of a woman using her wiles to win an argument?

    Lady Macbeth
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    Johnson rejects claims he is liability to Tories in local elections - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/apr/25/uk-politics-live-boris-johnson-sexist-smear-angela-rayner-labour-latest-updates?page=with:block-6266966c8f08ef9d840c9229#block-6266966c8f08ef9d840c9229
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I just realised Murdoch talktv launched today...

    https://watch.talk.tv/

    Looks like they are giving GB News a running for shit website (its more bare bones than a normal night at Spearmint Rhino) and crap programmes.

    They’ve got the Piers Morgan interview with Trump on tonight, where Trump walked out and is now saying that Morgan misrepresented him. Just playing for ratings, or a genuine falling out, God only knows.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 8,256
    Pensfold said:

    Can anyone think of an example of a woman using her wiles to win an argument?

    If you are referring to Rayner - she's hardly a veela is she?:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJnwV-sNKuA
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    Pensfold said:

    Even if 54 letters are sent to the 1922 Committee, there are 359 Conservative MPs so 180 would have to vote against him in an election for him to leave office.

    Essentially there are three camps; Anti-Johnson, pro-Johnson and "which way is the wind blowing?". The first is quite large, the second really quite small and the latter very large. The first two groups will try to sway the latter. Anyone's guess really.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 8,968
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    LostPassword said:

    algarkirk said:

    Contains all the usual non-story words. 'Claims' 'may' 'could'.
    All real news stories say something actual in the indicative, which can in due course be evaluated as true or false. Put this in same bin as all the coverage about how Le Pen 'may' and 'could' be the president of France, and how this 5 million gap between vote numbers was going top be a close run thing.

    Which Labour leader(s) saw Labour receive more votes than Le Pen, and in which general election(s)?
    A little irrelevant because it is a completely different system where it is a choice of two!
    Completely irrelevant, but can still be fun.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    Scott_xP said:

    Johnson rejects claims he is liability to Tories in local elections - https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2022/apr/25/uk-politics-live-boris-johnson-sexist-smear-angela-rayner-labour-latest-updates?page=with:block-6266966c8f08ef9d840c9229#block-6266966c8f08ef9d840c9229

    lol
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 72,062
    edited April 25
    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I just realised Murdoch talktv launched today...

    https://watch.talk.tv/

    Looks like they are giving GB News a running for shit website (its more bare bones than a normal night at Spearmint Rhino) and crap programmes.

    They’ve got the Piers Morgan interview with Trump on tonight, where Trump walked out and is now saying that Morgan misrepresented him. Just playing for ratings, or a genuine falling out, God only knows.
    Does his show go head to head with Farage on an evening? Or can one have the joys of watching 2hrs back to back of blowhards talking nonsense for ratings?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    Stocky said:

    Is 46% on a 2022 exit too high?

    What do you guys think would happen if the letters do trigger a VOC? I'm far from certain that Johnson would lose it.

    Yep, it’s one thing to get 54 letters, but the rebels need to be sure they have the 180 votes required to win. I’m not sure they do.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 46,234
    Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Given the seats up for election, one would expect the Greens to have quite a decent night, so I'm not entirely sure where an upward move for Labour is liekly to come from.
  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 1,725
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Its clear that he is toast. Last line of defence was "just bluster through it" and that collapsed last Thursday. So its just a question of when, not if.

    Even after the change of leader and the attempt to move on, I expect "you supported Boris Johnson" will cling to the political careers of a stack of these MPs. It won't matter if they write a letter now because too many councillors lost their seats, if they publicly endorsed the man over the last few weeks they are going to be branded with it.

    I think your first para is correct. He is a goner.

    Not so sure about your second point. I don't think association with BJ is quite as disastrous as you may think. He may easily come to be seen as a consequential PM brought down by, yes, certainly his own faults, but all the same, someone who got stuff done. I really don't think "you supported Boris Johnson" will be the death knell for anyone's political career. Anymore than support for J Corbyn has proven to be, so long as they move on.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,163
    Pensfold said:

    Even if 54 letters are sent to the 1922 Committee, there are 359 Conservative MPs so 180 would have to vote against him in an election for him to leave office.

    Imagine a rival offered ditching net zero and tax cuts....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    Malmesbury said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/germanys-spd-calls-on-gerhard-schroder-to-resign-over-russia-links

    The co-leader of Germany’s Social Democratic party (SPD) has urged the former chancellor Gerhard Schröder to hand in his party membership after he made clear in an interview that he had no intention to resign from his seats on the boards of Russian energy companies over the war in Ukraine.

    Can the SPD not expel members?

    It's also a matter of Schröder's friends and influence in the party. Imagine trying to expel Tony Blair from Labour....
    If he was shilling for Putin, then hell yeah.

    Labour have managed to successfully purge their last leader, to the new leader’s credit.
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,335
    edited April 25
    And on to the airport! It’s a really nice one, but because it’s depressingly empty. There are two departure boards; less than half of one is filled.

    I grabbed a quick beer before moving into the departure lounge. I was entertained by the little girl (four years old, I heard her declare) in the background, who’s been dancing and singing, in excellent English - I think to a Disney song - to her mum on the right.


  • PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191
    Stocky said:

    Pensfold said:

    Can anyone think of an example of a woman using her wiles to win an argument?

    If you are referring to Rayner - she's hardly a veela is she?:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EJnwV-sNKuA
    Is Raynor a veela - yes or no?

    Vote now.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,163
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Pensfold said:

    Even if 54 letters are sent to the 1922 Committee, there are 359 Conservative MPs so 180 would have to vote against him in an election for him to leave office.

    Essentially there are three camps; Anti-Johnson, pro-Johnson and "which way is the wind blowing?". The first is quite large, the second really quite small and the latter very large. The first two groups will try to sway the latter. Anyone's guess really.
    Its also possible I guess that many MPs might opt to keep Johnson, but use his lust for power to force him to change course radically.

    His refusal to scrap the green levy, even temporarily, to help out on the cost of living was a massive error, and showed how disconnected he is.

  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,884
    edited April 25
    Pensfold said:

    Even if 54 letters are sent to the 1922 Committee, there are 359 Conservative MPs so 180 would have to vote against him in an election for him to leave office.

    A realistic way of looking at 2022 exit is this:
    Apart from outliers the only way Boris is out is a Tory MP vote, for which the 54 letters are essential.
    So there is a two stage process; and it is reasonable to regard them thus:
    chances of 54 letters this year: evens
    chances of losing if there were a vote: evens.

    So about a 25% chance of Boris exit in 2022, but add a few % points for accident, black swan, so between 25 and 30% chance. Hills have it at about evens. This is wrong. The value is on 2023 exit (5/1).

  • felixfelix Posts: 14,261
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    "The Red Wall" is already lost to the Tories, it always was once Corbyn was gone. Hunt would need to shore up support elsewhere and maybe retain a few of the so-called "Red Wall" seats. The mythology that Johnson apologists put up about his "man of the people" status with the "red wall" plebs (as most of his apologists see them) makes me want to laugh and simultaneously vomit.
    I still think the term was largely misunderstood. A number of northern seats have been trending to the Tories for the last decade or so. The last election magnified that movement significantly. I believe the bulk of Tory voters in these seats were very similar to their equivalents in places like north Kent which have been Tory rather longer. That is to say, small town mixtures of lower m/c and upper w/c voters with fairly traditional views many of them owning their homes. Depending on what happens re the leadership a fair number of those voters could easily stay with the blues. I do agree the party needs a leader without the Boris baggage which has become way too heavy to sustain and he is now a clear liability. If the party is true to its roots he will be jetissoned. In short I would sya between a third and a half of the Red wall might well stay blue.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Pensfold said:

    Even if 54 letters are sent to the 1922 Committee, there are 359 Conservative MPs so 180 would have to vote against him in an election for him to leave office.

    Essentially there are three camps; Anti-Johnson, pro-Johnson and "which way is the wind blowing?". The first is quite large, the second really quite small and the latter very large. The first two groups will try to sway the latter. Anyone's guess really.
    Its also possible I guess that many MPs might opt to keep Johnson, but use his lust for power to force him to change course radically.

    His refusal to scrap the green levy, even temporarily, to help out on the cost of living was a massive error, and showed how disconnected he is.

    It may be wishful thinking but I think he is toast. If he has not gone by end of May I promised some months ago to wear a hair shirt for all of June.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 14,369
    rcs1000 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    Given the seats up for election, one would expect the Greens to have quite a decent night, so I'm not entirely sure where an upward move for Labour is liekly to come from.
    Is this not also dependent on how the changes in boundaries work out?

    ISTM that that is potentially still very variable.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    BlancheLivermore said:

    And on to the airport! It’s a really nice one, but because it’s depressingly empty. There are two departure boards; less than half of one is filled.

    I grabbed a quick beer before moving into the departure lounge. I was entertained by the little girl (four years old, I heard her declare) in the background, who’s been dancing and singing, in excellent English - I think to a Disney song - to her mum on the right.


    Depressingly empty sound like complete bliss compared to my recent travels/travails !
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 40,206
    BlancheLivermore said:

    And on to the airport! It’s a really nice one, but because it’s depressingly empty. There are two departure boards; less than half of one is filled.

    I grabbed a quick beer before moving into the departure lounge. I was entertained by the little girl (four years old, I heard her declare) in the background, who’s been dancing and singing, in excellent English - I think to a Disney song - to her mum on the right.

    Sounds like you had a fun holiday! Safe trip back home.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 5,884
    Pensfold said:

    Can anyone think of an example of a woman using her wiles to win an argument?

    Are there any who don't?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,209
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    "The Red Wall" is already lost to the Tories, it always was once Corbyn was gone. Hunt would need to shore up support elsewhere and maybe retain a few of the so-called "Red Wall" seats. The mythology that Johnson apologists put up about his "man of the people" status with the "red wall" plebs (as most of his apologists see them) makes me want to laugh and simultaneously vomit.
    Need to look at the latest polling but indeed I thought the Red Wall had swung more to Labour than the rest of the country?
    Yep, that is also my understanding. I think Johnson apologists also want us to believe it was all about "get Brexit done" that caused the proletariat to vote for the fat Etonian, but in reality it was a revulsion of all things Corbyn.
    Hope you are well BTW Nigel
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/germanys-spd-calls-on-gerhard-schroder-to-resign-over-russia-links

    The co-leader of Germany’s Social Democratic party (SPD) has urged the former chancellor Gerhard Schröder to hand in his party membership after he made clear in an interview that he had no intention to resign from his seats on the boards of Russian energy companies over the war in Ukraine.

    Can the SPD not expel members?

    Schroder is fucking loathsome. A greasy rat of a man

    He's collaborating with Nazis, and profiting from it. Germany should be revoking his citizenship, not questioning his SPD party membership
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    Sandpit said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    Sandpit said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    I just realised Murdoch talktv launched today...

    https://watch.talk.tv/

    Looks like they are giving GB News a running for shit website (its more bare bones than a normal night at Spearmint Rhino) and crap programmes.

    They’ve got the Piers Morgan interview with Trump on tonight, where Trump walked out and is now saying that Morgan misrepresented him. Just playing for ratings, or a genuine falling out, God only knows.
    Two obnoxious unspeakable egotistical twats that the world would be better off without. I am not sure I could bring myself to watch it.
    That’s a bit harsh on obnoxious unspeakable egotistical twats.
    You are so right. Sorry Leon.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,143
    edited April 25
    MISTY said:

    Its also possible I guess that many MPs might opt to keep Johnson, but use his lust for power to force him to change course radically.

    [snip]

    As in 'I know he's lied to me and broken all his marriage vows, but he's assured me he'll be different in the future'
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,112
    Pensfold said:

    Can anyone think of an example of a woman using her wiles to win an argument?

    Men don't?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 41,174
    Eric Zemmour is proposing a 'National Union' alliance with Marine Le Pen's Rassemblement Nationale for the legislative elections. It's also aimed at including Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's Debout La France and members of Les Republicains who don't want to support Macron.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 29,754
    Pointless speculating because there's only one person who knows and it's a person who would never tell. You could threaten him, get him drunk, try to bribe him, whatever, it wouldn't work. His lips are sealed.

    Sir Graham Brady.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    "The Red Wall" is already lost to the Tories, it always was once Corbyn was gone. Hunt would need to shore up support elsewhere and maybe retain a few of the so-called "Red Wall" seats. The mythology that Johnson apologists put up about his "man of the people" status with the "red wall" plebs (as most of his apologists see them) makes me want to laugh and simultaneously vomit.
    Need to look at the latest polling but indeed I thought the Red Wall had swung more to Labour than the rest of the country?
    Yep, that is also my understanding. I think Johnson apologists also want us to believe it was all about "get Brexit done" that caused the proletariat to vote for the fat Etonian, but in reality it was a revulsion of all things Corbyn.
    Hope you are well BTW Nigel
    Pretty well, thanks for asking CHB. Same to you!
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,261
    Carnyx said:

    Pensfold said:

    Can anyone think of an example of a woman using her wiles to win an argument?

    Men don't?
    Nope - Churchill just enjoyed a big cigar ....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/germanys-spd-calls-on-gerhard-schroder-to-resign-over-russia-links

    The co-leader of Germany’s Social Democratic party (SPD) has urged the former chancellor Gerhard Schröder to hand in his party membership after he made clear in an interview that he had no intention to resign from his seats on the boards of Russian energy companies over the war in Ukraine.

    Can the SPD not expel members?

    It's also a matter of Schröder's friends and influence in the party. Imagine trying to expel Tony Blair from Labour....
    If he was shilling for Putin, then hell yeah.

    Labour have managed to successfully purge their last leader, to the new leader’s credit.
    The difference is that Schröder has lots and lots of friends in the SPD. He was a middle of the road guy implementing the common, agreed policy of Germany.

    A lot of people would be nervous if he got binned - what might he say? Who might be next?
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,163
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MISTY said:

    Its also possible I guess that many MPs might opt to keep Johnson, but use his lust for power to force him to change course radically.

    [snip]

    As in 'I know he's lied to me and broken all his marriage vows, but he's assured me he'll be different in the future'
    Its an outlier sure, but not impossible if you believe Johnson will do absolutely anything to hold on - including sacking Sunak, reversing tax increases and scrapping net zero.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,209
    Nigel_Foremain said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    "The Red Wall" is already lost to the Tories, it always was once Corbyn was gone. Hunt would need to shore up support elsewhere and maybe retain a few of the so-called "Red Wall" seats. The mythology that Johnson apologists put up about his "man of the people" status with the "red wall" plebs (as most of his apologists see them) makes me want to laugh and simultaneously vomit.
    Need to look at the latest polling but indeed I thought the Red Wall had swung more to Labour than the rest of the country?
    Yep, that is also my understanding. I think Johnson apologists also want us to believe it was all about "get Brexit done" that caused the proletariat to vote for the fat Etonian, but in reality it was a revulsion of all things Corbyn.
    The polling confirms this no? Biggest reason people swapped was Corbyn’s leadership.

    Ed M held these seats and was almost as unpopular as Corbyn. Just didn’t hate British foreign policy
  • BlancheLivermoreBlancheLivermore Posts: 3,335
    So now to the departure lounge, and the outside bar is just closed. The barman was counting his till as I arrived and directed me to the Burger King. So more beer from paper cups! I’m planning a siesta on the flight.


  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 19,712
    Burgessian said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    "The Red Wall" is already lost to the Tories, it always was once Corbyn was gone. Hunt would need to shore up support elsewhere and maybe retain a few of the so-called "Red Wall" seats. The mythology that Johnson apologists put up about his "man of the people" status with the "red wall" plebs (as most of his apologists see them) makes me want to laugh and simultaneously vomit.
    Not necessarily. Areas like Co Durham, Teesside (pace Ben Houchen), parts of the Midlands, seem to be moving to the Tories over the longer term. We may be seeing a ratchet effect.

    I think a lot will depend on who succeeds Boris and whether they pursue the Levelling-Up Agenda and can wear a hard-hat with any conviction.

    Keir Starmer is not a shoo-in in these places.
    He isn't. But the key pivot is whether the red wall becomes markedly better off thanks to Brexit / Tory MPs / Mayors. If promises are delivered then they could dig in where they can show results.

    The problem the Tories have is results cost money. They have shafted the regions by replacing £lots of EU grant money with £little government grant money, locals aren't as stupid as MPs think and are up in arms, and there's a double count issue. As in grant money which is £less than they had before now includes levelling up fund / towns fund monies promised as extras.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    kinabalu said:

    Pointless speculating because there's only one person who knows and it's a person who would never tell. You could threaten him, get him drunk, try to bribe him, whatever, it wouldn't work. His lips are sealed.

    Sir Graham Brady.

    It's maybe a good thing he doesn't sit opposite Angela Rayner
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 1,694
    kinabalu said:

    Pointless speculating because there's only one person who knows and it's a person who would never tell. You could threaten him, get him drunk, try to bribe him, whatever, it wouldn't work. His lips are sealed.

    Sir Graham Brady.

    Would feminine wiles work?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,209
    The Mail has done more for Rayner’s popularity over the last day than Labour has in the last year
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 35,146
    Oh dear 19 year old gender studies students everywhere shaking because Elon is about to cut them out of the public conversation on Twatter.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 11,483
    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    CorrectHorseBattery said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    "The Red Wall" is already lost to the Tories, it always was once Corbyn was gone. Hunt would need to shore up support elsewhere and maybe retain a few of the so-called "Red Wall" seats. The mythology that Johnson apologists put up about his "man of the people" status with the "red wall" plebs (as most of his apologists see them) makes me want to laugh and simultaneously vomit.
    Need to look at the latest polling but indeed I thought the Red Wall had swung more to Labour than the rest of the country?
    Yep, that is also my understanding. I think Johnson apologists also want us to believe it was all about "get Brexit done" that caused the proletariat to vote for the fat Etonian, but in reality it was a revulsion of all things Corbyn.
    The polling confirms this no? Biggest reason people swapped was Corbyn’s leadership.

    Ed M held these seats and was almost as unpopular as Corbyn. Just didn’t hate British foreign policy
    Mike has put up a number of polls that point to it. HYUFD wants you believe it was because "Boris" promised to GBD, because this is what Conservative Central Office would like us to believe
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 28,529
    felix said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    MISTY said:

    Nigel_Foremain said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I thought he already had? It would certainly make it likely that I would. The Conservative Party would be a serious party of government again.
    Hunt will be as popular in the red wall as a f8rt in a space suit.
    "The Red Wall" is already lost to the Tories, it always was once Corbyn was gone. Hunt would need to shore up support elsewhere and maybe retain a few of the so-called "Red Wall" seats. The mythology that Johnson apologists put up about his "man of the people" status with the "red wall" plebs (as most of his apologists see them) makes me want to laugh and simultaneously vomit.
    I still think the term was largely misunderstood. A number of northern seats have been trending to the Tories for the last decade or so. The last election magnified that movement significantly. I believe the bulk of Tory voters in these seats were very similar to their equivalents in places like north Kent which have been Tory rather longer. That is to say, small town mixtures of lower m/c and upper w/c voters with fairly traditional views many of them owning their homes. Depending on what happens re the leadership a fair number of those voters could easily stay with the blues. I do agree the party needs a leader without the Boris baggage which has become way too heavy to sustain and he is now a clear liability. If the party is true to its roots he will be jetissoned. In short I would sya between a third and a half of the Red wall might well stay blue.
    aka Basildon Man, IIRC
  • LeonLeon Posts: 23,828
    edited April 25
    BlancheLivermore said:

    And on to the airport! It’s a really nice one, but because it’s depressingly empty. There are two departure boards; less than half of one is filled.

    I grabbed a quick beer before moving into the departure lounge. I was entertained by the little girl (four years old, I heard her declare) in the background, who’s been dancing and singing, in excellent English - I think to a Disney song - to her mum on the right.


    Quite odd that the airport is so empty. Travel is experiencing a boom, especially in the USA and Europe (ex Ukraine, Moldova, etc). Who knows if it will continue, but Yay for the Return of Holibobs!

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/24/all-omens-look-positive-greece-grateful-tourists-flock-back

    In my opinion, travel will continue to boom despite everything. There is SO much pent-up demand, so many people are yearning to get out and explore. It's a primal human need that has been repressed for two long terrible years, so people will sacrifice a lot of other things (Netflix subs, dinners out) to get their weeks in the sun or just Be Somewhere Else



  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,143
    MISTY said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MISTY said:

    Its also possible I guess that many MPs might opt to keep Johnson, but use his lust for power to force him to change course radically.

    [snip]

    As in 'I know he's lied to me and broken all his marriage vows, but he's assured me he'll be different in the future'
    Its an outlier sure, but not impossible if you believe Johnson will do absolutely anything to hold on - including sacking Sunak, reversing tax increases and scrapping net zero.
    Oh, sure, he'll certainly promise anything to hold on. The question is whether the wife, or in this case the party, will fall for it.
  • MISTYMISTY Posts: 1,163
    MaxPB said:

    Oh dear 19 year old gender studies students everywhere shaking because Elon is about to cut them out of the public conversation on Twatter.

    Has Musk actually made any commitment about what he would do, editorially?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 23,620
    However much you detest the story, it's not the business of politicians to call in editors for stories they don't like. https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1518584470751879171
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 102,739
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Put it this way, the PM has a majority of nearly 80 and doesn't have the support to stop Labour's motion last week.

    That alone tells you they are close to the 54 letters.

    Out of interest, say Hunt wins any leadership election, would that be enough for you to rejoin the blue meanies?
    I rejoined just before Christmas because I knew there was a leadership election coming.

    I’d be chuffed to buggery if Hunt won.
  • felixfelix Posts: 14,261
    Scott_xP said:

    However much you detest the story, it's not the business of politicians to call in editors for stories they don't like. https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1518584470751879171

    Ooh yes - not sure what the Speaker is doing medling with the press.
  • darkagedarkage Posts: 2,455
    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/germanys-spd-calls-on-gerhard-schroder-to-resign-over-russia-links

    The co-leader of Germany’s Social Democratic party (SPD) has urged the former chancellor Gerhard Schröder to hand in his party membership after he made clear in an interview that he had no intention to resign from his seats on the boards of Russian energy companies over the war in Ukraine.

    Can the SPD not expel members?

    It's also a matter of Schröder's friends and influence in the party. Imagine trying to expel Tony Blair from Labour....
    If he was shilling for Putin, then hell yeah.

    Labour have managed to successfully purge their last leader, to the new leader’s credit.
    The difference is that Schröder has lots and lots of friends in the SPD. He was a middle of the road guy implementing the common, agreed policy of Germany.

    A lot of people would be nervous if he got binned - what might he say? Who might be next?
    This looks like a massive scandal in waiting. Lots of accounts on Twitter of jollies to Moscow for members, booked through the SPD travel agency etc. We think the oligarch donations to the tories are bad, but this looks potentially catastrophic and existential, given the conduct of the Russian Army in Ukraine. It is everything the German state professes to be against.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 9,596
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MISTY said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    MISTY said:

    Its also possible I guess that many MPs might opt to keep Johnson, but use his lust for power to force him to change course radically.

    [snip]

    As in 'I know he's lied to me and broken all his marriage vows, but he's assured me he'll be different in the future'
    Its an outlier sure, but not impossible if you believe Johnson will do absolutely anything to hold on - including sacking Sunak, reversing tax increases and scrapping net zero.
    Oh, sure, he'll certainly promise anything to hold on. The question is whether the wife, or in this case the party, will fall for it.
    The tory MPs aren't exactly renowned for their intellectual firepower and there are many policy stunts that Johnson could pull out of his commodious arse to woo them. Confect a Brexit crisis, massive tax cut, another national flegship, etc.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 2,812
    Stuartinromford said:

    felix said:

    Andy_JS said:

    The projected national shares at the local elections 4 years ago were Con 35%, Lab 35%, LD 16%. The Conservatives are not expected to get less than 35% this time, although Labour could be slightly higher.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_United_Kingdom_local_elections

    I agree about the likely Tory share but surely opinion polls would lead one to expect Labour to be a lot higher. Is this to do with the more limited nature of the seats being contested this time?
    I suspect more that Lib Dems are (a lot of the time) very good at winning votes in local elections in a way that doesn't translate to General Elections.
    My general rule of thumb is to knock 6% off the LD's projected share from the local elections to get an equivalent national GE Figure. So 16% seems about right, compared to the 10% or so the LDs are polling at the moment.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,112
    edited April 25
    felix said:

    Scott_xP said:

    However much you detest the story, it's not the business of politicians to call in editors for stories they don't like. https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1518584470751879171

    Ooh yes - not sure what the Speaker is doing medling with the press.
    Because a newspaper came out with a particularly nasty sexual smear against someone who operates in a facility for which the Speaker is responsible, and to which the press are allowed privileged access, and the alleged activity in question was alleged to occur in that facility? It would be irresponsible of Mr Hoyle not to thump the table and remind the media they are expected not to go too low in their standards, particularly in terms of personal attacks.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 34,010
    Carnyx said:

    Pensfold said:

    Can anyone think of an example of a woman using her wiles to win an argument?

    Men don't?
    Ian Blackford could try wearing a kilt at next PMQs..
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 24,112
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Carnyx said:

    Pensfold said:

    Can anyone think of an example of a woman using her wiles to win an argument?

    Men don't?
    Ian Blackford could try wearing a kilt at next PMQs..
    Oh, so 'wiles' is a new euphemism of which I was not aware?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 28,015
    darkage said:

    Malmesbury said:

    Sandpit said:

    Malmesbury said:

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/apr/25/germanys-spd-calls-on-gerhard-schroder-to-resign-over-russia-links

    The co-leader of Germany’s Social Democratic party (SPD) has urged the former chancellor Gerhard Schröder to hand in his party membership after he made clear in an interview that he had no intention to resign from his seats on the boards of Russian energy companies over the war in Ukraine.

    Can the SPD not expel members?

    It's also a matter of Schröder's friends and influence in the party. Imagine trying to expel Tony Blair from Labour....
    If he was shilling for Putin, then hell yeah.

    Labour have managed to successfully purge their last leader, to the new leader’s credit.
    The difference is that Schröder has lots and lots of friends in the SPD. He was a middle of the road guy implementing the common, agreed policy of Germany.

    A lot of people would be nervous if he got binned - what might he say? Who might be next?
    This looks like a massive scandal in waiting. Lots of accounts on Twitter of jollies to Moscow for members, booked through the SPD travel agency etc. We think the oligarch donations to the tories are bad, but this looks potentially catastrophic and existential, given the conduct of the Russian Army in Ukraine. It is everything the German state professes to be against.
    Add Douche Bank into the mix and that will be really fun.....
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