"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I think this is why the Tories are needing to be dragged kicking and screaming to ditch Boris: Brexit has turned into a burdensome let-down but Boris might still give the campaign some of the old showbiz magic; Brexit plus dull leader equals political curtains.
Yes, I struggle to see large numbers of floating voters opting for 5 more years of Con govt under Hunt over a change with Lab and Starmer. With my Lab hat on, the Cons trading out of Johnson doesn't worry me unduly.
Indeed, Johnson is still the greatest Conservative vote winner since Thatcher.
On the doors in Epping this morning for the local elections it is worse than last year certainly but still much better than it was in Spring 2019 when we had failed to deliver Brexit.
London I think will be bad in a fortnight but the rest of the country a bit better than expected
Wandsworth toppling? Westminster?
I expect Wandsworth and Barnet will go on the London Opinium local elections poll yesterday. However Westminster should stay Tory
I will be very upset indeed if Westminster falls. I really don't want the nasty reds to mess up what has historically worked well. (Odd hiccoughs aside)
This is not a good PM. As I've said before he's achieved important things, but he simply has to go.
Raab is the best bet (to back) currently available.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I think this is why the Tories are needing to be dragged kicking and screaming to ditch Boris: Brexit has turned into a burdensome let-down but Boris might still give the campaign some of the old showbiz magic; Brexit plus dull leader equals political curtains.
Yes, I struggle to see large numbers of floating voters opting for 5 more years of Con govt under Hunt over a change with Lab and Starmer. With my Lab hat on, the Cons trading out of Johnson doesn't worry me unduly.
Indeed, Johnson is still the greatest Conservative vote winner since Thatcher.
On the doors in Epping this morning for the local elections it is worse than last year certainly but still much better than it was in Spring 2019 when we had failed to deliver Brexit.
London I think will be bad in a fortnight but the rest of the country a bit better than expected
"I knocked a few doors in Essex, and here's what the whole country thinks..."
The collapse of Sunak is truly spectacular isn’t it? Hard to believe that he is not going to be seriously bitter about that and retaliate against his Boris shafting at some point. Could well be the final straw.
He certainly knows where a lot of the bodies are buried. But he’s no cunning Cummings.
Anyway, off to Romania for crisis talks next week. Glad to see that Wizzair are in firm competition with Ryanair for who can add the silliest hidden charges.
Michael O'Leary walks into a bar.
The barman recognises him and greets him with "special offer today, two pints of Guiness for €1"
O'Leary "sounds great!" and hands over his €1.
Barman: "now, would you be wanting to hire two glasses for those..."
Sorry, but that website is a fucking disgrace. Adverts popping up literally left right and centre, making the text jump around. What a fucking wreck, how can anyone read that?
They can’t. The Record is a dead brand walking.
Goes a long way to explaining why SLab is still failing when their key propaganda tool is not fit for purpose.
I know the gradations are important but to me this whole war, being one of naked aggression and totally unprovoked, is a crime. I consider every single Ukrainian death caused by it to be murder. That the killers are in uniform makes no difference to this. The only difference it makes is on culpability. Putin, yes, a slam dunk, but what about the chain of command right down to those actually doing the killing? "Only following orders" often gets mocked as a phrase and a concept but there's some validity to it. God knows what I'd do. Can't even imagine the scenario. It's outside my frame of reference. "OFO" can't be a blanket mitigation, though, can it?
Well if it is there were some serious miscarriages of justice at Nuremberg. I think the consensus is that it is not.
The reality is, however, that all these threats of war crimes tribunals and the like are so much hot air. Powerful countries are not subject to such laws, ask GWB and Tony Blair.
Yep, Iraq was also a war of naked unprovoked aggression. I'd say this one is of a purer evil but to consider it of the same ilk isn't a category error.
Total bollocks. The Iraq war was against Saddam Hussein who had waved two fingers to the UN and had not long before gassed the Kurds and invaded a neighbouring sovereign country. To equate Iraq with Ukraine is an insult to the Ukrainians and shows you to be a bit of fool at least. If I didn't quite admire some of your other opinions I would be a lot ruder.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I think this is why the Tories are needing to be dragged kicking and screaming to ditch Boris: Brexit has turned into a burdensome let-down but Boris might still give the campaign some of the old showbiz magic; Brexit plus dull leader equals political curtains.
Yes, I struggle to see large numbers of floating voters opting for 5 more years of Con govt under Hunt over a change with Lab and Starmer. With my Lab hat on, the Cons trading out of Johnson doesn't worry me unduly.
Indeed, Johnson is still the greatest Conservative vote winner since Thatcher.
On the doors in Epping this morning for the local elections it is worse than last year certainly but still much better than it was in Spring 2019 when we had failed to deliver Brexit.
London I think will be bad in a fortnight but the rest of the country a bit better than expected
"I knocked a few doors in Essex, and here's what the whole country thinks..."
It's a fair point- the only reason that we've forgotten how bonkers Spring 2019 was is that everything that followed has been even madder. Even that little window between the Brexit deal and Covid, when the government started hiring strange people as advisers and the Saj was sacked.
In late April 2019, the poll averages were roughly Con 27 Lab 32 Lib 12 BXP 17. So yes, the Conservatives are doing quite a bit better than their 2019 nadir. And the Conservative-Labour gap is pretty similar.
The difficulty for the Conservatives is this. In Spring 2019, the solution was pretty obvious; dump May, install Boris and promise to do a muscly Brexit to get the Faragites on board. Electorally, that worked really well.
What the hell do the Conservatives do to improve their position this time?
I did wonder why there was a Brexity protest at Monument in Newcastle but I then I realised it was St Georges Day. Really annoying because the police and gammon presence really ruined the vibes of the vegan street market.
Anyway, off to Romania for crisis talks next week. Glad to see that Wizzair are in firm competition with Ryanair for who can add the silliest hidden charges.
Michael O'Leary walks into a bar.
The barman recognises him and greets him with "special offer today, two pints of Guiness for €1"
O'Leary "sounds great!" and hands over his €1.
Barman: "now, would you be wanting to hire two glasses for those..."
Sorry, but that website is a fucking disgrace. Adverts popping up literally left right and centre, making the text jump around. What a fucking wreck, how can anyone read that?
They can’t. The Record is a dead brand walking.
Goes a long way to explaining why SLab is still failing when their key propaganda tool is not fit for purpose.
I checked, found some reasonably recent circulation figures. Daily Record is down 13% in a year, the sister Sunday Mail down even more at 17. Though the Sunday Post is down 19%.
Old folk dying off, in part? The DR website certainly doesn't make it easy to read online, as Farooq moaned so correctly.
No, it isn't. But it is petty, stupid, bigoted, and it's evidence of intent that will probably serve very nicely in future war crimes tribunals, if directed by the Russian state.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I probably am Kinabalu although projecting one’s opinions onto the rest of the population is a specialty of this site. However, you don’t have to believe me, you just have to look at what has happened when it’s come to polling. Labour is not polling where it should be given the constant negative news about the Government plus the cost of living issues. And that’s even before we get to when people actually cast votes - Labour’s record in council and parliamentary by-elections has been p1ss poor for a party that is supposedly now seen as. credible alternative (let’s see what Wakefield does). It’s clear when it comes to Labour, the mood of the population when it comes to actions is essentially apathetic with some grudging belief voting Labour sends a signal to BJ.
Let's see what the Locals and Wakefield tell us. In any case I'm not saying SKS has "sealed the deal" - he hasn't. But he is, gradually, and I sense rather relentlessly, firming up the impressionistic (non policy) side of the offer, being a safe and competent alternative PM, good brain, decent values, with a capable and engaging shadow front bench team ready for government after 14 years of Tory rule. This was the hard bit after the GE19 disaster under Corbyn. Once that impression is in place it's a piece of cake to tag on some policies which meet the twin criteria of "Tories wouldn't do it" and poll well amongst floating voters.
If the Tories are sensible enough (I know, I know, unlikely but possible) to exchange the Clown for Hunt then it really is a completely different ball game for Starmer. Hunt is just as sensible, and some might say, a little dull, just like Starmer. He also, unlike Starmer, has a genuine track record of achievement in government. The Tories will most likely win/squeak the next GE if it is Hunt v Starmer. Many ex-Tories like me will return to the fold. Hunt is Starmer's worst nightmare.
I know the gradations are important but to me this whole war, being one of naked aggression and totally unprovoked, is a crime. I consider every single Ukrainian death caused by it to be murder. That the killers are in uniform makes no difference to this. The only difference it makes is on culpability. Putin, yes, a slam dunk, but what about the chain of command right down to those actually doing the killing? "Only following orders" often gets mocked as a phrase and a concept but there's some validity to it. God knows what I'd do. Can't even imagine the scenario. It's outside my frame of reference. "OFO" can't be a blanket mitigation, though, can it?
Well if it is there were some serious miscarriages of justice at Nuremberg. I think the consensus is that it is not.
The reality is, however, that all these threats of war crimes tribunals and the like are so much hot air. Powerful countries are not subject to such laws, ask GWB and Tony Blair.
Yep, Iraq was also a war of naked unprovoked aggression. I'd say this one is of a purer evil but to consider it of the same ilk isn't a category error.
Total bollocks. The Iraq war was against Saddam Hussein who had waved two fingers to the UN and had not long before gassed the Kurds and invaded a neighbouring sovereign country. To equate Iraq with Ukraine is an insult to the Ukrainians and shows you to be a bit of fool at least. If I didn't quite admire some of your other opinions I would be a lot ruder.
When did that happen?
Oh that doesn't count then. The fact that he did it a long time before meant he wouldn't do it again. Duh. Completely irrelevant to my point. Equating Ukraine to Iraq is an insult to Ukrainians. They are not led by Saddam Hussein, in case you are too dumb to notice?
I did wonder why there was a Brexity protest at Monument in Newcastle but I then I realised it was St Georges Day. Really annoying because the police and gammon presence really ruined the vibes of the vegan street market.
Not a big fan of Brexity types, but the only type of person more sanctimonious and irritating than a Gammon is a vegan.
Off topic, I'm now a Dad. Had the longest hour of my life when my better half was taken to theatre for emergency c section tho.
WooHoo! Congratulations!
Hope mother and child are okay after all of that. And life gets a little different from now on...
Well since he’ll be doing the overnight feeds he will get a lot more Firsts…
Some people have all the luck. A baby now; Firsts in the future; and sex last July.
Congratulations @Pulpstar! My first was also an emergency c section - really odd experience. For me, it was over before I had time to take in the gravity of the situation. Hope mum and baby are well. If I could offer one reflection from experience - it came as something of a shock to me how joyless the first few weeks were. I had expected it to be hard work, I hadn't expected it to be so unrewarding. The only positive feedback you get from newborns is them sleeping. Unlike mothers, fathers don't get oxytocin hormones to get them through it. I remember in the first fortnight I was counting down the days until she was 18. Happy to report that by about week 6 to 8 I was smitten, to the extent that I went on to have two more. My oldest is now 12 and 18 seems all too sadly close. So if it all seems horribly tough and unrewarding, that's because it is - but this phase will last weeks, not years.
Me and my (first) wife were young parents and a vivid memory I have is carrying our baby across the hospital carpark to our car, a roasting afternoon in Sydney, this tiny thing in a basket now, after the collective professional endeavour of the birth, our sole responsibility. There was excitement and pleasure for sure but we also felt daunted. We had no family over there in Oz. It was just the two of us. Except now it wasn’t.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I think this is why the Tories are needing to be dragged kicking and screaming to ditch Boris: Brexit has turned into a burdensome let-down but Boris might still give the campaign some of the old showbiz magic; Brexit plus dull leader equals political curtains.
Yes, I struggle to see large numbers of floating voters opting for 5 more years of Con govt under Hunt over a change with Lab and Starmer. With my Lab hat on, the Cons trading out of Johnson doesn't worry me unduly.
Indeed, Johnson is still the greatest Conservative vote winner since Thatcher.
On the doors in Epping this morning for the local elections it is worse than last year certainly but still much better than it was in Spring 2019 when we had failed to deliver Brexit.
London I think will be bad in a fortnight but the rest of the country a bit better than expected
"I knocked a few doors in Essex, and here's what the whole country thinks..."
Based upon hyufd's complete inability to analyse data I would have thought that was the least of the issues.
I did wonder why there was a Brexity protest at Monument in Newcastle but I then I realised it was St Georges Day. Really annoying because the police and gammon presence really ruined the vibes of the vegan street market.
Not a big fan of Brexity types, but the only type of person more sanctimonious and irritating than a Gammon is a vegan.
And the bad news for you is there's almost zero overlap there. It's additive.
To fright the souls of fearful adversaries, He capers nimbly in a lady’s chamber To the lascivious pleasing of a lute. But I, that am not shaped for sportive tricks, Nor made to court an amorous looking-glass; I, that am rudely stamp’d, and want love’s majesty To strut before a wanton ambling nymph;
I even worked some of that in to a PB thread last year.
As Boris would reply unto you, Sheffield Hedgepig -
When rampant rumor doth my ears confound And insult hound me for my mere shape's sake, Then do I pause to sit upon the ground And tell sad stories of the perjured snake. The worthy serpent by the world full curst In truth is innocent and full of grace; His dimensions all compact, his mind well versed. Why therefore villain? Wherefore base? Regard my supple body lithe and thin, My curling arabesques, my twin-tounged kiss; Hath not a serpent flesh, bones, skin? If struck–nay, trod upon–shall he not hiss? Fie, hedge-pigs. Ye are slanderers most vile; Unworthy e'en to speak the name–Reptile.
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
You are probably right, but, I suggest, somewhat less than 50/50. These thoughts must be in people's minds. 1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go. 2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election 3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders 4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
Hi OKC, I think you misunderstand. There is a 'motion of no confidence' in the House of Commons, which has to be tabled by the Leader of the Opposition, and a 'vote of no confidence' which the Tories hold among themselves. If the latter is held and he loses, he is automatically removed as leader of the party. He cannot therefore go to the Queen and ask for a dissolution as it would not help him. In any case, the 1922 committee could decide to remove him immediately and install an acting leader if they wished or if he decided to do crazy stuff.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
You're overlooking a possibility here that is so outlandish it must surely have occurred to the PM. In the event of losing a VOC he just digs in his heels and refuses to resign. The Tory party could proceed with an election if they want but Johnson is PM until he isn't, HMQ has no power to dismiss him and the Conservative Party has no constitutional significance. In such a situation Starmer could move a motion of no confidence in HoC but it would be against HMG, not against Johnson personally, and it remains to be seen how the PCP would respond. Or Starmer could resist the temptation and leave the Tories swinging on the gibbet.
Your possibility falls, because under the rules he doesn't resign if he loses a VONC, he is automatically removed. If he plays ball, he gets to stay PM until a successor is elected. If not, he can just be expelled from the party for a breach of rules and that is that as far his government is concerned.
He may be automatically removed as Tory leader but he can chose to remain as PM until the HoC passes Starmer's motion of no-confidence at which point he is constitutionally obliged to meet HMQ and recommend a successor. Obviously a lot of toys will have been thrown out of the pram by this stage, but it's wrong to suggest that Johnson automatically ceases to be PM just because of a vote by the PCP.
The motion would be proposed by the Leader of the Opposition, but would that actually be Starmer in this scenario? If Boris is no longer leader of the Conservatives but refuses to go, wouldn't the new Tory leader be LOTO? In which case there should be conflict of loyalties for Tory MPs anyway.
I'm sure that must have happened at some point in the last 300 years, maybe someone can cite a case.
If we get to the point where someone else is leader, MPs have voted on the new leader. I guess theoretically Boris might have come top but the party members vote for someone else. But even in that case MPs who stick with Boris would be pissing off their own party members by sticking with someone the members voted down. But this is an unlikely scenario to my mind. At present Tory MPs are like a flock of penguins getting up their courage to enter the sea: they know the first movers have a chance of being savaged by the leopard seal, but once they move, they'll all move.
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Bagged a Russian tank in a charity shop and didn't even need a tractor. Pleasing home made quality to it, definitely not mass produced; sort of a T72 I think.
At least some of the pretence is being dropped, even calling it occupied territory
BBC A veteran pro-Kremlin commentator says Russia's goal in Ukraine is "the gradual dismantling and phased reformatting of this territory".
The Russian analyst, Pyotr Akopov, says "everyone understands now that the military operation will go on a long time".
His commentary, published by state-run RIA Novosti news, is titled "Russia is changing tactics, but not strategy, in Ukraine".
It echoes a speech on Friday by a top Russian general, Rustam Minnekayev, envisaging Russian forces taking control of Ukraine’s entire coastline, from Donbas in the east to Moldova in the west.
Russia has troops in Transnistria, a breakaway pro-Moscow territory in Moldova.
"Withdrawal of our troops from any of the occupied territories is out of the question," Akopov says.
"If we take the goal of the second phase to be establishing control over the south of Ukraine, then we have to realise that a third phase is inevitable too – control over all of Novorossiya," Akopov says.
Any "dismantling" seems to be being done by Ukraine - of the Russian armed forces.
They seem very adept at dismantling a turret off a tank.
I know the gradations are important but to me this whole war, being one of naked aggression and totally unprovoked, is a crime. I consider every single Ukrainian death caused by it to be murder. That the killers are in uniform makes no difference to this. The only difference it makes is on culpability. Putin, yes, a slam dunk, but what about the chain of command right down to those actually doing the killing? "Only following orders" often gets mocked as a phrase and a concept but there's some validity to it. God knows what I'd do. Can't even imagine the scenario. It's outside my frame of reference. "OFO" can't be a blanket mitigation, though, can it?
Well if it is there were some serious miscarriages of justice at Nuremberg. I think the consensus is that it is not.
The reality is, however, that all these threats of war crimes tribunals and the like are so much hot air. Powerful countries are not subject to such laws, ask GWB and Tony Blair.
Yep, Iraq was also a war of naked unprovoked aggression. I'd say this one is of a purer evil but to consider it of the same ilk isn't a category error.
Total bollocks. The Iraq war was against Saddam Hussein who had waved two fingers to the UN and had not long before gassed the Kurds and invaded a neighbouring sovereign country. To equate Iraq with Ukraine is an insult to the Ukrainians and shows you to be a bit of fool at least. If I didn't quite admire some of your other opinions I would be a lot ruder.
I'm not equating it. What I'm saying is if we have a category for 'wars of naked aggression' I'd include Iraq. It's more arguable than this one (Ukraine) - which has no shades of grey at all - but for me the argument Iraq belongs in there is stronger than the argument that it doesn't.
Rather off-topic, but I've just been into a local deli for the first time since the mask-wearing mandate was lifted this week here in Scotland. I really can't express how joyful it was to talk to the owner and see them smile. Just to smile. The shop opened after covid hit so I've never actually seen them without a mask (and vice versa).
We stood outside the shop after I'd bought my treats - chatting about the French election (owner is French) and enjoying the sunshine for a few minutes. Then both smiled and went our respective ways.
It's really cheered me up much more than I expected.
'Yer carn't even say yer English* any more wivout bein' arrested'
*see also:
a woman a Bernard Manning fan a Tory a Brexiteer proud white British a fan of Easter eggs
Thanks. I think there used to be an issue around St George, and Englishness, but it is less so now. Back in the early 2000’s a pub near Norwich was denied a late licence for a St. George’s party, but had been allowed one for st Patrick’s. And Englishness has been given a far worse press than Scottishness, Welshness of Irishness. There would be no chance of an equivalent English party to match the SNP, for instance.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I probably am Kinabalu although projecting one’s opinions onto the rest of the population is a specialty of this site. However, you don’t have to believe me, you just have to look at what has happened when it’s come to polling. Labour is not polling where it should be given the constant negative news about the Government plus the cost of living issues. And that’s even before we get to when people actually cast votes - Labour’s record in council and parliamentary by-elections has been p1ss poor for a party that is supposedly now seen as. credible alternative (let’s see what Wakefield does). It’s clear when it comes to Labour, the mood of the population when it comes to actions is essentially apathetic with some grudging belief voting Labour sends a signal to BJ.
Let's see what the Locals and Wakefield tell us. In any case I'm not saying SKS has "sealed the deal" - he hasn't. But he is, gradually, and I sense rather relentlessly, firming up the impressionistic (non policy) side of the offer, being a safe and competent alternative PM, good brain, decent values, with a capable and engaging shadow front bench team ready for government after 14 years of Tory rule. This was the hard bit after the GE19 disaster under Corbyn. Once that impression is in place it's a piece of cake to tag on some policies which meet the twin criteria of "Tories wouldn't do it" and poll well amongst floating voters.
If the Tories are sensible enough (I know, I know, unlikely but possible) to exchange the Clown for Hunt then it really is a completely different ball game for Starmer. Hunt is just as sensible, and some might say, a little dull, just like Starmer. He also, unlike Starmer, has a genuine track record of achievement in government. The Tories will most likely win/squeak the next GE if it is Hunt v Starmer. Many ex-Tories like me will return to the fold. Hunt is Starmer's worst nightmare.
How many 'you's are there, though, cf people who still like "Boris" and the broad mass of floating voters? This is the key question. Personally I hope we get a Hunt v Starmer match up since that'll mean Johnson has been booted out early and with my National Interest hat on - gee I do have a lot of hats - every day he stays is one too many. But unlike you I also quite like the match up from a Labour perspective. After 14 years in power I reckon the Cons have to generate a sense of excitement about themselves or a sense of danger about Labour to win again. The 1st will be hard for Hunt to do. I think that's obvious. The 2nd I think Starmer is taking care of and will be complete by 2024.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
Correct. There has been some talk of Spain doing the same but it certainly hasn't done so yet. My partner tells me there is a steady selling up going on from many Brits who own second homes in the area - the hassle of the 3 month rule is too much for them. It must be deterring neewbies too with the restrictions regarding savings requirements, etc., pricing out all but the comfortably off. It's difficult to be sympathetic given that many probably voted for Brexit but it also will have a negative effect on the Spanish property market as well as the knock-on effects beyond. For those of us here permanently with guaranteed rights this is not a problem of course. All just a bit sad. Votes have consequences - who knew?
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
They started it!
*tucked away for when Scottish independence comes back as a topic....*
Ironically, a controlled environment such as an airport will be a good test bed for self-driving vehicles. There are clear and well-maintained road markings and signs, and all the human drivers they will come across are professionals.
Definitely not for use with private cars on a private apron though!
One point: I don´t think Russia can be categorised as a developed state, "Nigeria with snow".
My present house is connected to the sewage mains (sorry to brag), but the previous one and the one before that had septic tanks which needed hoovering out every couple of years. It's grim out west.
Bagged a Russian tank in a charity shop and didn't even need a tractor. Pleasing home made quality to it, definitely not mass produced; sort of a T72 I think.
Nice buy, but I would suggest slightly more like a T64.
Its obviously stylized a bit, but the commanders coupler, to me makes it look a bit more like the T64,
For the most part its the Ukrainians who have and are using T64s at the moment, (with the 2 breakaway 'republics' also using some T 64s)
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
Correct. There has been some talk of Spain doing the same but it certainly hasn't done so yet. My partner tells me there is a steady selling up going on from many Brits who own second homes in the area - the hassle of the 3 month rule is too much for them. It must be deterring neewbies too with the restrictions regarding savings requirements, etc., pricing out all but the comfortably off. It's difficult to be sympathetic given that many probably voted for Brexit but it also will have a negative effect on the Spanish property market as well as the knock-on effects beyond. For those of us here permanently with guaranteed rights this is not a problem of course. All just a bit sad. Votes have consequences - who knew?
Palma airport allowed our planeload from Bristol to use the e-gates. Same e-gates seemed to be shut when we were hanging round the terminal waiting to fly back to the UK, so not sure of the rhyme or reason.
'Yer carn't even say yer English* any more wivout bein' arrested'
*see also:
a woman a Bernard Manning fan a Tory a Brexiteer proud white British a fan of Easter eggs
Thanks. I think there used to be an issue around St George, and Englishness, but it is less so now. Back in the early 2000’s a pub near Norwich was denied a late licence for a St. George’s party, but had been allowed one for st Patrick’s. And Englishness has been given a far worse press than Scottishness, Welshness of Irishness. There would be no chance of an equivalent English party to match the SNP, for instance.
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
Hmm, there was supposedly a deal to be done on the UK continuing to recognise non passport based EU documents (national ID cards with biometric chips) for the UK having blanket e-gates access. Aiui it was the commission who declined the deal and now that the first country has opened the door on allowing UK citizens through the e-gates system quite a few will have to follow so in the end for the countries that matter we will end up having ease of travel yet the EU is still nowhere with the UK government on recognition of biometric ID cards for border transit. If ever there was a case of the EU cutting off its nose to spite its face, border pedantry has been it. It's not easy for individual nations to continue taking a hostile position towards the UK when there is so much to gain from not doing so.
Belgium has benefited from being an early mover on putting in place smooth customs for UK shipping arrivals and departures, Portugal will undoubtedly benefit from being an early mover on border entry at airports. It is only the obstinate who will lose by sticking to the "must punish them for Brexit" years after the vote and years after the trade treaty.
Hopefully the UK government responds in kind to the generous move by Portugal and adds the Portuguese national ID card into the list of allowable transit documentation from Portugal.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
Correct. There has been some talk of Spain doing the same but it certainly hasn't done so yet. My partner tells me there is a steady selling up going on from many Brits who own second homes in the area - the hassle of the 3 month rule is too much for them. It must be deterring neewbies too with the restrictions regarding savings requirements, etc., pricing out all but the comfortably off. It's difficult to be sympathetic given that many probably voted for Brexit but it also will have a negative effect on the Spanish property market as well as the knock-on effects beyond. For those of us here permanently with guaranteed rights this is not a problem of course. All just a bit sad. Votes have consequences - who knew?
The Spanish property market is looking delicious for us with EU citizenship. Cheers Nige!
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I probably am Kinabalu although projecting one’s opinions onto the rest of the population is a specialty of this site. However, you don’t have to believe me, you just have to look at what has happened when it’s come to polling. Labour is not polling where it should be given the constant negative news about the Government plus the cost of living issues. And that’s even before we get to when people actually cast votes - Labour’s record in council and parliamentary by-elections has been p1ss poor for a party that is supposedly now seen as. credible alternative (let’s see what Wakefield does). It’s clear when it comes to Labour, the mood of the population when it comes to actions is essentially apathetic with some grudging belief voting Labour sends a signal to BJ.
Let's see what the Locals and Wakefield tell us. In any case I'm not saying SKS has "sealed the deal" - he hasn't. But he is, gradually, and I sense rather relentlessly, firming up the impressionistic (non policy) side of the offer, being a safe and competent alternative PM, good brain, decent values, with a capable and engaging shadow front bench team ready for government after 14 years of Tory rule. This was the hard bit after the GE19 disaster under Corbyn. Once that impression is in place it's a piece of cake to tag on some policies which meet the twin criteria of "Tories wouldn't do it" and poll well amongst floating voters.
If the Tories are sensible enough (I know, I know, unlikely but possible) to exchange the Clown for Hunt then it really is a completely different ball game for Starmer. Hunt is just as sensible, and some might say, a little dull, just like Starmer. He also, unlike Starmer, has a genuine track record of achievement in government. The Tories will most likely win/squeak the next GE if it is Hunt v Starmer. Many ex-Tories like me will return to the fold. Hunt is Starmer's worst nightmare.
Good luck with that.
Hunt would be a vast improvement on Johnson and those of a sensible disposition would breath a sigh of relief. If he goes to the electorate quickly, he probably wins much as Brown would/might have done in 2007. As the economy bites us hard his chances of re election diminishes. So take a chance like Mrs May in 2017, or ride out two and a half years into the history books and hope for the best?
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
At least some of the pretence is being dropped, even calling it occupied territory
BBC A veteran pro-Kremlin commentator says Russia's goal in Ukraine is "the gradual dismantling and phased reformatting of this territory".
The Russian analyst, Pyotr Akopov, says "everyone understands now that the military operation will go on a long time".
His commentary, published by state-run RIA Novosti news, is titled "Russia is changing tactics, but not strategy, in Ukraine".
It echoes a speech on Friday by a top Russian general, Rustam Minnekayev, envisaging Russian forces taking control of Ukraine’s entire coastline, from Donbas in the east to Moldova in the west.
Russia has troops in Transnistria, a breakaway pro-Moscow territory in Moldova.
"Withdrawal of our troops from any of the occupied territories is out of the question," Akopov says.
"If we take the goal of the second phase to be establishing control over the south of Ukraine, then we have to realise that a third phase is inevitable too – control over all of Novorossiya," Akopov says.
Any "dismantling" seems to be being done by Ukraine - of the Russian armed forces.
They seem very adept at dismantling a turret off a tank.
"all of Novorossiya"
includes the Baltics iirc.
So, if this isn't just kremlin bollocks then we should urgently prepare to be at war with Russia at some point this decade.
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
It's almost like polls are a snapshot of current opinion, and not a perfect predictor of results in the future.
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
It's almost like polls are a snapshot of current opinion, and not a complete guarantor of results in the future.
Indeed, so it's not 'deluded' to think that current opinion isn't a reliable guide to the next election.
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
... and then the economy boomed through 1986 into 1987. Are we expecting that anytime soon? If we are The Conservative Party are home and hosed.
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
Hmm, there was supposedly a deal to be done on the UK continuing to recognise non passport based EU documents (national ID cards with biometric chips) for the UK having blanket e-gates access. Aiui it was the commission who declined the deal and now that the first country has opened the door on allowing UK citizens through the e-gates system quite a few will have to follow so in the end for the countries that matter we will end up having ease of travel yet the EU is still nowhere with the UK government on recognition of biometric ID cards for border transit. If ever there was a case of the EU cutting off its nose to spite its face, border pedantry has been it. It's not easy for individual nations to continue taking a hostile position towards the UK when there is so much to gain from not doing so.
Belgium has benefited from being an early mover on putting in place smooth customs for UK shipping arrivals and departures, Portugal will undoubtedly benefit from being an early mover on border entry at airports. It is only the obstinate who will lose by sticking to the "must punish them for Brexit" years after the vote and years after the trade treaty.
Hopefully the UK government responds in kind to the generous move by Portugal and adds the Portuguese national ID card into the list of allowable transit documentation from Portugal.
Portugal have been also much more "progressive" in their attitude to dealing with UK ex-pats. If I remember correctly, it was basically proof you live there, do you have an income over minimum wage, send in a form, job done, you can stay for life. Spain on the other hand put in place much higher level of minimum income (which is above average pension income) and a load of other pain in arse conditions.
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
It's almost like polls are a snapshot of current opinion, and not a perfect predictor of results in the future.
But wasn't the methodology back then pretty stone age - just calling random numbers from the phone book and tallying up the answers on a clipboard?
'Yer carn't even say yer English* any more wivout bein' arrested'
*see also:
a woman a Bernard Manning fan a Tory a Brexiteer proud white British a fan of Easter eggs
I feel a bit of this coming on -
"Goodbye to my England, so long my old friend Your days are numbered, being brought to an end To be Scottish, Irish or Welsh, that’s fine But don’t say you’re English, that’s way out of line The French and the Germans may call themselves such So may Norwegians, the Swedes and the Dutch You can say you are Russian or maybe a Dane But don’t say you’re English ever again At Broadcasting House the word is taboo In Brussels it’s scrapped, in Parliament too Even schools are affected, staff do as they’re told They mustn’t teach children about England of old Writers like Shakespeare, Milton and Shaw The pupils don’t learn about them anymore How about Agincourt, Hastings, Arnhem or Mons? When England lost lots of her very brave sons We are not Europeans, how can we be? Europe is miles away, over the sea We’re the English from England, let’s all be proud Stand up and be counted – shout it out loud! Let’s tell our government and Brussels too We’re proud of our heritage and the red white and blue Fly the flag of St George or the Union Jack Let the world know – WE WANT OUR ENGLAND BACK !!!"
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
Boris is no Maggie, though.
And SKS is no Kinnock. Extraordinary that he had such a long run as loto and was allowed to lose two GEs
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
It's almost like polls are a snapshot of current opinion, and not a perfect predictor of results in the future.
But wasn't the methodology back then pretty stone age - just calling random numbers from the phone book and tallying up the answers on a clipboard?
Hahaha haha
Can't tell if that is satirical in which case it is very funny or serious in which case it is also very funny, but it is unusual to see sampling techniques dissed for being random.
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
Boris is no Maggie, though.
No problem, nothing that a permanent wave (the tonsorial kind) can't cure.
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
It's almost like polls are a snapshot of current opinion, and not a complete guarantor of results in the future.
Indeed, so it's not 'deluded' to think that current opinion isn't a reliable guide to the next election.
As well as simply being a snapshot nearly three years out, opinion polls imply trends which is helpful.
At least some of the pretence is being dropped, even calling it occupied territory
BBC A veteran pro-Kremlin commentator says Russia's goal in Ukraine is "the gradual dismantling and phased reformatting of this territory".
The Russian analyst, Pyotr Akopov, says "everyone understands now that the military operation will go on a long time".
His commentary, published by state-run RIA Novosti news, is titled "Russia is changing tactics, but not strategy, in Ukraine".
It echoes a speech on Friday by a top Russian general, Rustam Minnekayev, envisaging Russian forces taking control of Ukraine’s entire coastline, from Donbas in the east to Moldova in the west.
Russia has troops in Transnistria, a breakaway pro-Moscow territory in Moldova.
"Withdrawal of our troops from any of the occupied territories is out of the question," Akopov says.
"If we take the goal of the second phase to be establishing control over the south of Ukraine, then we have to realise that a third phase is inevitable too – control over all of Novorossiya," Akopov says.
Any "dismantling" seems to be being done by Ukraine - of the Russian armed forces.
They seem very adept at dismantling a turret off a tank.
"all of Novorossiya"
includes the Baltics iirc.
So, if this isn't just kremlin bollocks then we should urgently prepare to be at war with Russia at some point this decade.
Don't think so, though your final para is probably still valid
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
It's almost like polls are a snapshot of current opinion, and not a perfect predictor of results in the future.
But wasn't the methodology back then pretty stone age - just calling random numbers from the phone book and tallying up the answers on a clipboard?
Hahaha haha
Can't tell if that is satirical in which case it is very funny or serious in which case it is also very funny, but it is unusual to see sampling techniques dissed for being random.
The randomness is fine - it's the not doing any further processing of them that resulted in inaccuracies.
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
Boris is no Maggie, though.
And SKS is no Kinnock. Extraordinary that he had such a long run as loto and was allowed to lose two GEs
'Yer carn't even say yer English* any more wivout bein' arrested'
*see also:
a woman a Bernard Manning fan a Tory a Brexiteer proud white British a fan of Easter eggs
I feel a bit of this coming on -
"Goodbye to my England, so long my old friend Your days are numbered, being brought to an end To be Scottish, Irish or Welsh, that’s fine But don’t say you’re English, that’s way out of line The French and the Germans may call themselves such So may Norwegians, the Swedes and the Dutch You can say you are Russian or maybe a Dane But don’t say you’re English ever again At Broadcasting House the word is taboo In Brussels it’s scrapped, in Parliament too Even schools are affected, staff do as they’re told They mustn’t teach children about England of old Writers like Shakespeare, Milton and Shaw The pupils don’t learn about them anymore How about Agincourt, Hastings, Arnhem or Mons? When England lost lots of her very brave sons We are not Europeans, how can we be? Europe is miles away, over the sea We’re the English from England, let’s all be proud Stand up and be counted – shout it out loud! Let’s tell our government and Brussels too We’re proud of our heritage and the red white and blue Fly the flag of St George or the Union Jack Let the world know – WE WANT OUR ENGLAND BACK !!!"
(apols to all)
My antennae are a bit droopy, I can't tell if it's sincere or satirising that victimy world view?
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
Boris is no Maggie, though.
Shhh! Don't tell Hyufd...
To link to another theme this afternoon - this Dall-E image is alarmingly Mrs T-ish (but in fact Marie Skłodowska–Curie)
'Yer carn't even say yer English* any more wivout bein' arrested'
*see also:
a woman a Bernard Manning fan a Tory a Brexiteer proud white British a fan of Easter eggs
I feel a bit of this coming on -
"Goodbye to my England, so long my old friend Your days are numbered, being brought to an end To be Scottish, Irish or Welsh, that’s fine But don’t say you’re English, that’s way out of line The French and the Germans may call themselves such So may Norwegians, the Swedes and the Dutch You can say you are Russian or maybe a Dane But don’t say you’re English ever again At Broadcasting House the word is taboo In Brussels it’s scrapped, in Parliament too Even schools are affected, staff do as they’re told They mustn’t teach children about England of old Writers like Shakespeare, Milton and Shaw The pupils don’t learn about them anymore How about Agincourt, Hastings, Arnhem or Mons? When England lost lots of her very brave sons We are not Europeans, how can we be? Europe is miles away, over the sea We’re the English from England, let’s all be proud Stand up and be counted – shout it out loud! Let’s tell our government and Brussels too We’re proud of our heritage and the red white and blue Fly the flag of St George or the Union Jack Let the world know – WE WANT OUR ENGLAND BACK !!!"
(apols to all)
Hmm. Mr Gove did want schools to use Our Island Story - which as Farooq pointed out recently (but I had missed) is titled as specific to England, even if it isn't if you see what I mean (very carefully changed to Britain in at least modern edition I see, though another subtitles it "England, Scotland and Britain" - no I don't know either)
Emma Burrows @EJ_Burrows · 22h This is what international isolation looks like. The new terminal at Moscow SVO airport was built to accommodate 20 million passengers a year.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I probably am Kinabalu although projecting one’s opinions onto the rest of the population is a specialty of this site. However, you don’t have to believe me, you just have to look at what has happened when it’s come to polling. Labour is not polling where it should be given the constant negative news about the Government plus the cost of living issues. And that’s even before we get to when people actually cast votes - Labour’s record in council and parliamentary by-elections has been p1ss poor for a party that is supposedly now seen as. credible alternative (let’s see what Wakefield does). It’s clear when it comes to Labour, the mood of the population when it comes to actions is essentially apathetic with some grudging belief voting Labour sends a signal to BJ.
Let's see what the Locals and Wakefield tell us. In any case I'm not saying SKS has "sealed the deal" - he hasn't. But he is, gradually, and I sense rather relentlessly, firming up the impressionistic (non policy) side of the offer, being a safe and competent alternative PM, good brain, decent values, with a capable and engaging shadow front bench team ready for government after 14 years of Tory rule. This was the hard bit after the GE19 disaster under Corbyn. Once that impression is in place it's a piece of cake to tag on some policies which meet the twin criteria of "Tories wouldn't do it" and poll well amongst floating voters.
If the Tories are sensible enough (I know, I know, unlikely but possible) to exchange the Clown for Hunt then it really is a completely different ball game for Starmer. Hunt is just as sensible, and some might say, a little dull, just like Starmer. He also, unlike Starmer, has a genuine track record of achievement in government. The Tories will most likely win/squeak the next GE if it is Hunt v Starmer. Many ex-Tories like me will return to the fold. Hunt is Starmer's worst nightmare.
Good luck with that.
Hunt would be a vast improvement on Johnson and those of a sensible disposition would breath a sigh of relief. If he goes to the electorate quickly, he probably wins much as Brown would/might have done in 2007. As the economy bites us hard his chances of re election diminishes. So take a chance like Mrs May in 2017, or ride out two and a half years into the history books and hope for the best?
Possibly but Labour have to break new ground in winning when the economy has hit a (very) bad patch rather than when economic optimism is rising (Blair). Yes, Wilson scraped home against Heath but only just.
At least some of the pretence is being dropped, even calling it occupied territory
BBC A veteran pro-Kremlin commentator says Russia's goal in Ukraine is "the gradual dismantling and phased reformatting of this territory".
The Russian analyst, Pyotr Akopov, says "everyone understands now that the military operation will go on a long time".
His commentary, published by state-run RIA Novosti news, is titled "Russia is changing tactics, but not strategy, in Ukraine".
It echoes a speech on Friday by a top Russian general, Rustam Minnekayev, envisaging Russian forces taking control of Ukraine’s entire coastline, from Donbas in the east to Moldova in the west.
Russia has troops in Transnistria, a breakaway pro-Moscow territory in Moldova.
"Withdrawal of our troops from any of the occupied territories is out of the question," Akopov says.
"If we take the goal of the second phase to be establishing control over the south of Ukraine, then we have to realise that a third phase is inevitable too – control over all of Novorossiya," Akopov says.
Any "dismantling" seems to be being done by Ukraine - of the Russian armed forces.
They seem very adept at dismantling a turret off a tank.
"all of Novorossiya"
includes the Baltics iirc.
So, if this isn't just kremlin bollocks then we should urgently prepare to be at war with Russia at some point this decade.
Nah, it's basically the old Tsarist name for Ukraine:
Putin and his mates appear to regard the Soviet Union as an unfortunate interlude with fiisiparous effects which they hope to mend. It's another reason why he has few friends on the left.
I believe that given the astonishing scale of current political and economic challenges the outcome of the GE is very open and possible outcomes range between large majorities for either LP or Tories with everything in between. All we can do at the moment is try to weigh up the likely factors and known unknowns (like who will be the Tory leader).
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
Deluded.
IPSOS poll from April 1986, a year before Thatcher won a landslide:
Conservative: 32% Labour: 43%
It's almost like polls are a snapshot of current opinion, and not a perfect predictor of results in the future.
'Yer carn't even say yer English* any more wivout bein' arrested'
*see also:
a woman a Bernard Manning fan a Tory a Brexiteer proud white British a fan of Easter eggs
I feel a bit of this coming on -
"Goodbye to my England, so long my old friend Your days are numbered, being brought to an end To be Scottish, Irish or Welsh, that’s fine But don’t say you’re English, that’s way out of line The French and the Germans may call themselves such So may Norwegians, the Swedes and the Dutch You can say you are Russian or maybe a Dane But don’t say you’re English ever again At Broadcasting House the word is taboo In Brussels it’s scrapped, in Parliament too Even schools are affected, staff do as they’re told They mustn’t teach children about England of old Writers like Shakespeare, Milton and Shaw The pupils don’t learn about them anymore How about Agincourt, Hastings, Arnhem or Mons? When England lost lots of her very brave sons We are not Europeans, how can we be? Europe is miles away, over the sea We’re the English from England, let’s all be proud Stand up and be counted – shout it out loud! Let’s tell our government and Brussels too We’re proud of our heritage and the red white and blue Fly the flag of St George or the Union Jack Let the world know – WE WANT OUR ENGLAND BACK !!!"
(apols to all)
My antennae are a bit droopy, I can't tell if it's sincere or satirising that victimy world view?
It's straight up, I think. Bad but the badness is not quite of the sort that smells of satire.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
Hmm, there was supposedly a deal to be done on the UK continuing to recognise non passport based EU documents (national ID cards with biometric chips) for the UK having blanket e-gates access. Aiui it was the commission who declined the deal and now that the first country has opened the door on allowing UK citizens through the e-gates system quite a few will have to follow so in the end for the countries that matter we will end up having ease of travel yet the EU is still nowhere with the UK government on recognition of biometric ID cards for border transit. If ever there was a case of the EU cutting off its nose to spite its face, border pedantry has been it. It's not easy for individual nations to continue taking a hostile position towards the UK when there is so much to gain from not doing so.
Belgium has benefited from being an early mover on putting in place smooth customs for UK shipping arrivals and departures, Portugal will undoubtedly benefit from being an early mover on border entry at airports. It is only the obstinate who will lose by sticking to the "must punish them for Brexit" years after the vote and years after the trade treaty.
Hopefully the UK government responds in kind to the generous move by Portugal and adds the Portuguese national ID card into the list of allowable transit documentation from Portugal.
Portugal have been also much more "progressive" in their attitude to dealing with UK ex-pats. If I remember correctly, it was basically proof you live there, do you have an income over minimum wage, send in a form, job done, you can stay for life. Spain on the other hand put in place much higher level of minimum income (which is above average pension income) and a load of other pain in arse conditions.
Correct - Sapin can be very irritatingly bureaucratic at the best of times. In this case they've irritated everyone rich and poor and created a climate of suspicion which will only result in the loss of yet more potential income for all of those thousands of unsold flats.
Comments
This is not a good PM. As I've said before he's achieved important things, but he simply has to go.
Raab is the best bet (to back) currently available.
But he’s no cunning Cummings.
Goes a long way to explaining why SLab is still failing when their key propaganda tool is not fit for purpose.
(I have no idea what this refers to)
In late April 2019, the poll averages were roughly Con 27 Lab 32 Lib 12 BXP 17. So yes, the Conservatives are doing quite a bit better than their 2019 nadir. And the Conservative-Labour gap is pretty similar.
The difficulty for the Conservatives is this. In Spring 2019, the solution was pretty obvious; dump May, install Boris and promise to do a muscly Brexit to get the Faragites on board. Electorally, that worked really well.
What the hell do the Conservatives do to improve their position this time?
Old folk dying off, in part? The DR website certainly doesn't make it easy to read online, as Farooq moaned so correctly.
https://pressgazette.co.uk/most-popular-newspapers-uk-abc-monthly-circulation-figures/
George of the Jungle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D8rViF7V_oA
Watch out for that tree!
https://twitter.com/LapineDeLaTerre/status/1517655928518037504?s=20&t=Wd8bKyBAcwiLh7uHbKfKWA
Remind you of anybody?
*see also:
a woman
a Bernard Manning fan
a Tory
a Brexiteer
proud white British
a fan of Easter eggs
When rampant rumor doth my ears confound
And insult hound me for my mere shape's sake,
Then do I pause to sit upon the ground
And tell sad stories of the perjured snake.
The worthy serpent by the world full curst
In truth is innocent and full of grace;
His dimensions all compact, his mind well versed.
Why therefore villain? Wherefore base?
Regard my supple body lithe and thin,
My curling arabesques, my twin-tounged kiss;
Hath not a serpent flesh, bones, skin?
If struck–nay, trod upon–shall he not hiss?
Fie, hedge-pigs.
Ye are slanderers most vile;
Unworthy e'en to speak the name–Reptile.
I'm sure that must have happened at some point in the last 300 years, maybe someone can cite a case.
If we get to the point where someone else is leader, MPs have voted on the new leader. I guess theoretically Boris might have come top but the party members vote for someone else. But even in that case MPs who stick with Boris would be pissing off their own party members by sticking with someone the members voted down. But this is an unlikely scenario to my mind. At present Tory MPs are like a flock of penguins getting up their courage to enter the sea: they know the first movers have a chance of being savaged by the leopard seal, but once they move, they'll all move.
Yes, Starmer is a bit uninspiring but the potential critical negative factors for labour are surely the next manifesto and whether Starmer is seen as moderate centre left. My personal view is that he is more ideological than many assume but may trim enough. Be under no illusion, a lot of potential votes for labour depend on getting hot topic non-economic issues neutralised (Trans, immigration, defence, avoiding reparations for colonialism etc.).
The Tories would be better with a big reset - again the success of this is guesswork at the moment. I'm not sure that the economic woes automatically boost labour, that is lazy thinking. Blair was elected in a period of economic recovery. If the Tories following a reset can project "we understand, we are doing all that can be done" then why risk labour? All to play for...
They seem very adept at dismantling a turret off a tank.
We stood outside the shop after I'd bought my treats - chatting about the French election (owner is French) and enjoying the sunshine for a few minutes. Then both smiled and went our respective ways.
It's really cheered me up much more than I expected.
I think there used to be an issue around St George, and Englishness, but it is less so now. Back in the early 2000’s a pub near Norwich was denied a late licence for a St. George’s party, but had been allowed one for st Patrick’s. And Englishness has been given a far worse press than Scottishness, Welshness of Irishness. There would be no chance of an equivalent English party to match the SNP, for instance.
Definitely not for use with private cars on a private apron though!
Its obviously stylized a bit, but the commanders coupler, to me makes it look a bit more like the T64,
For the most part its the Ukrainians who have and are using T64s at the moment, (with the 2 breakaway 'republics' also using some T 64s)
So your Tanks is probably on the winning side.
Belgium has benefited from being an early mover on putting in place smooth customs for UK shipping arrivals and departures, Portugal will undoubtedly benefit from being an early mover on border entry at airports. It is only the obstinate who will lose by sticking to the "must punish them for Brexit" years after the vote and years after the trade treaty.
Hopefully the UK government responds in kind to the generous move by Portugal and adds the Portuguese national ID card into the list of allowable transit documentation from Portugal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYkbqzWVHZI
Hunt would be a vast improvement on Johnson and those of a sensible disposition would breath a sigh of relief. If he goes to the electorate quickly, he probably wins much as Brown would/might have done in 2007. As the economy bites us hard his chances of re election diminishes. So take a chance like Mrs May in 2017, or ride out two and a half years into the history books and hope for the best?
Conservative: 32%
Labour: 43%
includes the Baltics iirc.
So, if this isn't just kremlin bollocks then we should urgently prepare to be at war with Russia at some point this decade.
"Goodbye to my England, so long my old friend
Your days are numbered, being brought to an end
To be Scottish, Irish or Welsh, that’s fine
But don’t say you’re English, that’s way out of line
The French and the Germans may call themselves such
So may Norwegians, the Swedes and the Dutch
You can say you are Russian or maybe a Dane
But don’t say you’re English ever again
At Broadcasting House the word is taboo
In Brussels it’s scrapped, in Parliament too
Even schools are affected, staff do as they’re told
They mustn’t teach children about England of old
Writers like Shakespeare, Milton and Shaw
The pupils don’t learn about them anymore
How about Agincourt, Hastings, Arnhem or Mons?
When England lost lots of her very brave sons
We are not Europeans, how can we be?
Europe is miles away, over the sea
We’re the English from England, let’s all be proud
Stand up and be counted – shout it out loud!
Let’s tell our government and Brussels too
We’re proud of our heritage and the red white and blue
Fly the flag of St George or the Union Jack
Let the world know – WE WANT OUR ENGLAND BACK !!!"
(apols to all)
Can't tell if that is satirical in which case it is very funny or serious in which case it is also very funny, but it is unusual to see sampling techniques dissed for being random.
https://grid.iamkate.com/
https://twitter.com/LapineDeLaTerre/status/1516989787558727680
https://www.bl.uk/collection-items/our-island-story-a-childs-history-of-england
Emma Burrows
@EJ_Burrows
·
22h
This is what international isolation looks like. The new terminal at Moscow SVO airport was built to accommodate 20 million passengers a year.
https://twitter.com/EJ_Burrows/status/1517542167207624705
===
More like 20 a year now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya
Putin and his mates appear to regard the Soviet Union as an unfortunate interlude with fiisiparous effects which they hope to mend. It's another reason why he has few friends on the left.
F1: fairly entertaining sprint race. The format remains stupid.
Pre-race tosh will be up tomorrow, as usual, so the markets have time to get going.
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