As long as the queue filling their bankbooks are ok all is fine. Try finding a pleb who cannot just lift the phone to downing street what they think. I bet your charity chum is a Tory in the mould of Boris and far and happy on a huge salary, worried in case the gravy train hits the buffers
He's privately pretty much as left-wing as I am. But his particular issue is getting proper attention so he - somewhat reluctantly - concedes that the work that his charity does may be disrupted by a change. I don't think his personal position would be affected either way - he's been doing it for many years, pre-Johnson.
My post was to illustrate the nuance of everyday Parliamentary life. Not everything goes wrong at once, and there are always reasons to wait a month while issue X is sorted, then another month for issue Y, and so on. Actually changing leader is a big deal - it may happen, but if Johnson manages a few quiet weeks after the local elections (e.g. no new fines and Sue Gray writing in formal civil service terms that don't lend themselves to headlines) he may well see it through.
When you have a criminal running the country he should go immediately Nick, regardless of any impact on the odd charity. As you say they have been doing same stuff for many years, toppling Johnson and cleaning up government would nonchalance that. Using that as an excuse just makes you an accomplice.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Yes we know your agenda, Tory wipeout.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
Your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
I am not a Conservative, that is very true, but as the Conservative Party for most of my lifetime has been in government, and I daresay will be for most of the remainder I have skin in this game. I can live with being managed by Heath, Major or even Hunt. I don't want however to be represented at the UN by Patel, Dorries, JRM, Francois, Frost or Baker. I doubt many genuine one nation Conservatives do either.
Mr. Taz, casting has, (Whitaker aside), generally been good, it's the writing that's fallen off a cliff. Damned shame for Capaldi, as grumpy older Doctor was exactly the sort I wanted but I couldn't stand the writing.
At the risk of turning pb into GallifreyBase, I hated capaldis characterisation at first, but grew to like it a lot by the end. There were some very good stories there too. Everything since has been terrible. Too many companions (always hard to write for, and tends to diminish supporting cast of the episode, notably so as only 47 minutes long now, not the longer formats of the past. Doctors character all over the place. Pathetic love interest nonsense that just isn’t needed. Time to get back to a character spreading love and happiness through the galaxy. Fighting evil with a smile on his/her face and a boiling fury inside.
And if the doctor woke up and reported a weird dream in the style of Bobby Ewing, I’d shed no tears...
Let’s not turn into the cesspit that is gallifreybase.
You’re right about the companions. Too many and the writers are invariably having to write one out for most of the story.
I agree with your summary as to where the show needs to go. RTD could probably do it.
Broadly in agreement with the header, and have been for a long time. It is obvious that anyone still in government is very unlikely to be the next leader. Look at hot favourite Sunak. If he were now PM we would be immersed in Nondomgate, Greencardgate and FPNgate, and he would be toasting gently.
And so it is with all those associated with government at the moment. With brexit done, Tory MPs look to one main thing - keeping their seats. Many people (not me) think a Labour majority is thinkable. That's 126 or so Tory MPs looking at Wakefield with interest.
While the membership of the party is plainly bonkers, the MPs have a self interest to protect. They will have to reduce to two candidates neither of whom is populist right, and neither currently in government - because the MPs can't risk them winning the run off.
Which is why Hunt (I have been on him for months) and Tugendhat are current favourites.
A faction needs about 120 MPs to be sure of getting their candidate into the runoff. How large is the populist right in the Conservative party at the moment? As in "we're struggling in the polls because we're not populist and right-wing enough?" If it's not 120, must be pretty close.
In which case, yet another calculation is that the rest of the party need to keep tight hold to nurse, for fear of someone even worse... Even if nurse has been struck off for unprofessional behaviour.
As long as the queue filling their bankbooks are ok all is fine. Try finding a pleb who cannot just lift the phone to downing street what they think. I bet your charity chum is a Tory in the mould of Boris and far and happy on a huge salary, worried in case the gravy train hits the buffers
He's privately pretty much as left-wing as I am. But his particular issue is getting proper attention so he - somewhat reluctantly - concedes that the work that his charity does may be disrupted by a change. I don't think his personal position would be affected either way - he's been doing it for many years, pre-Johnson.
My post was to illustrate the nuance of everyday Parliamentary life. Not everything goes wrong at once, and there are always reasons to wait a month while issue X is sorted, then another month for issue Y, and so on. Actually changing leader is a big deal - it may happen, but if Johnson manages a few quiet weeks after the local elections (e.g. no new fines and Sue Gray writing in formal civil service terms that don't lend themselves to headlines) he may well see it through.
Well said Nick. You mean that there’s actually a lot of good things that go on in government, aside from the numerous trivialities that dominate Twitter for a few hours at a time…
Surprise surprise, head removed from Boris,s butt for a second to tell us how great he is.
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
Great post. We saw a similar issue with Corbyn (though there were thr members to consider) of many MPs, people who are confident enough to ask the public to grant them a share of the power to tun this country, so lacking in boldness that they would constantly leak, anonymously, about their upset or outrage, without acting.
Upset Tory MPs may not feel there are any easy choices, but they asked to be able to take difficult choices for us. Stand up or shut up.
The Labour MPs literally passed a vote of no confidence in Corbyn.
Yes, and well done for that, but they did nothing years later. Even if another vote was pointless they could have been on the record if they were going to moan but it was still largely anonymous whinging.
An implied 24% probability for people not in the top eight of the betting seems high. Is that mainly covering the possibility that Johnson might survive for some time, allowing someone currently overlooked to make a strong showing?
I think it allows for two or three factors:
a) Yes, Boris could last some time. Hills have him at 6/5 to be out 2024 or later. I think that's too short but not outrageous. The chance of Boris winning the next election are not massive but not tiny. In that case no-one has any idea who could pop up.
b) There will be a couple of overlooked people who are lying very low, as well as chancers like Baker who, if MPs and membership combined in being bonkers at the same time could be in the mix. Remember when Steve Crabb thought he was in the running? There will be a few of those.
At some point the Tories have got to find an answer on the NIP. I was prepared to go along with Brexit when a majority voted for it and subsequent elections did not show a desire to resist the referendum result. However if they don't start providing answers to the current problems or a vision of what to do with our new powers then single market and customs union membership will become salient again. And it won't be the fault of saboteurs.
If we assume Johnson would now be toast if it weren't for the Ukraine war one wonders whether it is in his interest for the war to end? His comment about Putin having a 'huge' army seemed odd. If he has such an army one wonders why it isn't in Ukraine. We all need to guard against complacency and make sure the weapons keep going into Ukraine and Europe properly reduces its usage of Russian oil and gas. But Johnson shouldn't be talking up the threat from Putin as a way for him to stay in power.
Stating that the war might drag on a long time, or that Putin might win are both statements of the bleeding obvious.
They are however particularly stupid statements for a PM to make publically at the present time. They don't seem to have gone down well in Ukraine.
Most posters are more circumspect about their posts on PB than Johnson is in front of the microphones of the world's media
A lot of talk about ending (some) sanctions once the war ends. I hope it can be agreed that no sanctions will be removed on Russia until ALL Ukrainians deported to Russia have been allowed to return home. Speculation of up to half a million in total including over 100,000 children forcibly adopted. Hideous.
The key is that ceasefire is not the same thing as an end to the war. Russia presumably would be happy to ceasefire and stalemate if it means they keep the territory they've gained and effectively annex it, but that would not be peace.
Ceasefire means sanctions should remain until territory and people taken are returned. Hopefully Ukraine will not feel it has no choice but to concede sanctions as part of a deal.
I can’t read the article but I believe there was a loophole in sanctions that any contracts signed pre-sanctions could be fulfilled. The French and German governments insisted on it.
A lot of talk about ending (some) sanctions once the war ends. I hope it can be agreed that no sanctions will be removed on Russia until ALL Ukrainians deported to Russia have been allowed to return home. Speculation of up to half a million in total including over 100,000 children forcibly adopted. Hideous.
The key is that ceasefire is not the same thing as an end to the war. Russia presumably would be happy to ceasefire and stalemate if it means they keep the territory they've gained and effectively annex it, but that would not be peace.
Ceasefire means sanctions should remain until territory and people taken are returned. Hopefully Ukraine will not feel it has no choice but to concede sanctions as part of a deal.
As Foxy points out the Ukrainians likely have the numbers and some quality Nato kit. Whether they can launch a big offensive without controlling the skies is a trickier thing
Broadly in agreement with the header, and have been for a long time. It is obvious that anyone still in government is very unlikely to be the next leader. Look at hot favourite Sunak. If he were now PM we would be immersed in Nondomgate, Greencardgate and FPNgate, and he would be toasting gently.
And so it is with all those associated with government at the moment. With brexit done, Tory MPs look to one main thing - keeping their seats. Many people (not me) think a Labour majority is thinkable. That's 126 or so Tory MPs looking at Wakefield with interest.
While the membership of the party is plainly bonkers, the MPs have a self interest to protect. They will have to reduce to two candidates neither of whom is populist right, and neither currently in government - because the MPs can't risk them winning the run off.
Which is why Hunt (I have been on him for months) and Tugendhat are current favourites.
A faction needs about 120 MPs to be sure of getting their candidate into the runoff. How large is the populist right in the Conservative party at the moment? As in "we're struggling in the polls because we're not populist and right-wing enough?" If it's not 120, must be pretty close.
In which case, yet another calculation is that the rest of the party need to keep tight hold to nurse, for fear of someone even worse... Even if nurse has been struck off for unprofessional behaviour.
Good question. My estimate is that most MPs are in fact pretty dull centrists, nicely poised between Christian Democrats and Social Democrats in European language. The handful of Labour MPs who support Stalin and STW are just that. Most Tory MPs are moderates.
Your post raises another question: Whatever the PM has done wrong (other than getting a prison term etc) are there in fact mechanisms to force him to resign, or does it rest on convention and expectation? If the latter, there may be further distance to run.
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
You are wrong when you accuse critics of wanting to abandon Brexit, as a large proportion of the country have accepted Brexit but want it to work better for both the UK and EU's mutual benefit, especially following the war in Ukraine
Tennis pitches are dangerous places judging by the number of injuries Emma Raducanu is stacking up. She's just lost in Stuttgart with her dodgy hip, following on from blisters on her feet, which followed blisters on her hand, and apparently all her toenails have fallen out.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Yes we know your agenda, Tory wipeout.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
Your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
I am not a Conservative, that is very true, but as the Conservative Party for most of my lifetime has been in government, and I daresay will be for most of the remainder I have skin in this game. I can live with being managed by Heath, Major or even Hunt. I don't want however to be represented at the UN by Patel, Dorries, JRM, Francois, Frost or Baker. I doubt many genuine one nation Conservatives do either.
No your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
Any party which loses its core vote heads to annihilation. As the Canadian Tory Party faced wipeout in 1993 as it lost its core vote to Reform and Pecresse and Les Republicains faced wipeout earlier this month as it lost its core vote to Zemmour and Le Pen. Plus as the May Tories faced wipeout in the 2019 European elections as it lost its core vote to Farage and the Brexit Party. Plus as Clegg's LDs faced wipeout in 2015 after raising tuition fees and austerity. Abandon Brexit and the Tories face wipeout.
Thatcher and Boris however won 4 general elections between them. When the Tories removed Thatcher in 1990 they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections.
Mr. Taz, casting has, (Whitaker aside), generally been good, it's the writing that's fallen off a cliff. Damned shame for Capaldi, as grumpy older Doctor was exactly the sort I wanted but I couldn't stand the writing.
At the risk of turning pb into GallifreyBase, I hated capaldis characterisation at first, but grew to like it a lot by the end. There were some very good stories there too. Everything since has been terrible. Too many companions (always hard to write for, and tends to diminish supporting cast of the episode, notably so as only 47 minutes long now, not the longer formats of the past. Doctors character all over the place. Pathetic love interest nonsense that just isn’t needed. Time to get back to a character spreading love and happiness through the galaxy. Fighting evil with a smile on his/her face and a boiling fury inside.
And if the doctor woke up and reported a weird dream in the style of Bobby Ewing, I’d shed no tears...
Let’s not turn into the cesspit that is gallifreybase.
You’re right about the companions. Too many and the writers are invariably having to write one out for most of the story.
I agree with your summary as to where the show needs to go. RTD could probably do it.
Bring back David Tennant, his Doctor having been trapped by The Master in some alternate reality machine, one that created situations where he was forced into thinking he had used up his regenerations and so was prevented from taking any risks that might have led to his ultimate demise. Or something.
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
Gove said he won't stand for leader again. Obviously, that might be just a political promise but you need to factor it in to the price.
Mr. Taz, casting has, (Whitaker aside), generally been good, it's the writing that's fallen off a cliff. Damned shame for Capaldi, as grumpy older Doctor was exactly the sort I wanted but I couldn't stand the writing.
At the risk of turning pb into GallifreyBase, I hated capaldis characterisation at first, but grew to like it a lot by the end. There were some very good stories there too. Everything since has been terrible. Too many companions (always hard to write for, and tends to diminish supporting cast of the episode, notably so as only 47 minutes long now, not the longer formats of the past. Doctors character all over the place. Pathetic love interest nonsense that just isn’t needed. Time to get back to a character spreading love and happiness through the galaxy. Fighting evil with a smile on his/her face and a boiling fury inside.
And if the doctor woke up and reported a weird dream in the style of Bobby Ewing, I’d shed no tears...
Let’s not turn into the cesspit that is gallifreybase.
You’re right about the companions. Too many and the writers are invariably having to write one out for most of the story.
I agree with your summary as to where the show needs to go. RTD could probably do it.
Bring back David Tennant, his Doctor having been trapped by The Master in some alternate reality machine, one that created situations where he was forced into thinking he had used up his regenerations and so was prevented from taking any risks that might have led to his ultimate demise. Or something.
Well he’s rumoured to be coming back for a short stint so you may get what you wish for.
Have we done this? This is truly frightening on so many levels.
Nadine Dorries has done it again.
The culture secretary prompted ridicule after featuring in a fellow Tory MP’s TikTok to explain her job.
But her phrasing raised a few quizzical eyebrows, and lent weight to the suggestion she struggles to fully grasp her brief.
In the clip shared by Luke Evans, she says the department of culture, media and sport is responsible for broadband, which means “you can downstream your movies” at home. People typically download movies.
One of her goals is to “make the internet in the UK the safest internet in the world”. The internet doesn’t really have national boundaries.
Dorries also fronts the Whitehall department in charge of sport, which involves “tennis pitches” (they’re usually referred to as courts), which is one of the places where you can “exercise your sports”.
No wonder Nadine Dorries is such an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson, she is so dense that light bends around her.
I’m sorry but I just think this is nothing. She seems to have mixed up streaming and downloading and called a tennis court a pitch. Big deal. This just strikes me as a needless cheap dig. People do it all the time.
Agreed.
And the point about making the internet the safest in the UK is a reference to her policy on requiring ISPs to police it. Clear what she meant
Tennis pitches are dangerous places judging by the number of injuries Emma Raducanu is stacking up. She's just lost in Stuttgart with her dodgy hip, following on from blisters on her feet, which followed blisters on her hand, and apparently all her toenails have fallen out.
Jeez. That sounds like some ancient fable. Yes you can win the US Open. But beware the price to pay.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
You are wrong when you accuse critics of wanting to abandon Brexit, as a large proportion of the country have accepted Brexit but want it to work better for both the UK and EU's mutual benefit, especially following the war in Ukraine
It is not all or nothing
Mexicanpete was arguing for the Tories abandoning Brexit
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
The Tories chose Johnson to save their seats at the general election. When they finally show him the door it will be for the same reason. It's therefore almost impossible to see them turning to Gove.
Where Gove might play a crucial role is in throwing his support behind another candidate. Were Gove to announce his support for Javid, Truss or Hunt, say in return for being their Chancellor, then it would give that candidate a big boost. In particular, Hunt really needs the support of a big Brexit supporter as a sign that the Brexit division is done and over.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Yes we know your agenda, Tory wipeout.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
Your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
I am not a Conservative, that is very true, but as the Conservative Party for most of my lifetime has been in government, and I daresay will be for most of the remainder I have skin in this game. I can live with being managed by Heath, Major or even Hunt. I don't want however to be represented at the UN by Patel, Dorries, JRM, Francois, Frost or Baker. I doubt many genuine one nation Conservatives do either.
No your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
Any party which loses its core vote heads to annihilation.
I'm afraid you are badly misguided.
You need to keep you core vote, of course, and on that point you are correct. But everything else is hopelessly wrong.
The skill of winning elections is to keep your core vote AND win over the floaters. Even better, if you can reach across the divides to people who would not normally vote for you. Thatcher for all her faults did it brilliantly. Blair for all his faults did it brilliantly. Johnson for all his faults did it mostly luckily, thanks to the brilliance of Dom Cummings and the unelectability and stupidity of Jeremy Corbyn.
But the moment you turn your focus myopically solely onto your core vote you lose. Viz: Hague, Corbyn, Major ('97), Foot, IDS and countless others through the sands of time.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Yes we know your agenda, Tory wipeout.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
Your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
I am not a Conservative, that is very true, but as the Conservative Party for most of my lifetime has been in government, and I daresay will be for most of the remainder I have skin in this game. I can live with being managed by Heath, Major or even Hunt. I don't want however to be represented at the UN by Patel, Dorries, JRM, Francois, Frost or Baker. I doubt many genuine one nation Conservatives do either.
No your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
Any party which loses its core vote heads to annihilation. As the Canadian Tory Party faced wipeout in 1993 as it lost its core vote to Reform and Pecresse and Les Republicains faced wipeout earlier this month as it lost its core vote to Zemmour and Le Pen. Plus as the May Tories faced wipeout in the 2019 European elections as it lost its core vote to Farage and the Brexit Party. Plus as Clegg's LDs faced wipeout in 2015 after raising tuition fees and austerity. Abandon Brexit and the Tories face wipeout.
Thatcher and Boris however won 4 general elections between them. When the Tories removed Thatcher in 1990 they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections.
Have you seen the predictions that the Tories may gain seats from the LDs in Sutton, south London? It could be an interesting "against the national trend" result.
Anyone paying attention to the Marjorie Taylor Greene hearing?
It is just scene after scene of MTG saying she never said "The Dems are all blood sucking traitors" and then counsel presenting exhibit X which is video of MTG saying "The Dems are all blood sucking traitors".
Again, and again and again.
Obviously she is going to win this but it is all bleakly hilarious
Just as well for Charles he isn't around to try to defend her anymore.
Mr. Taz, casting has, (Whitaker aside), generally been good, it's the writing that's fallen off a cliff. Damned shame for Capaldi, as grumpy older Doctor was exactly the sort I wanted but I couldn't stand the writing.
At the risk of turning pb into GallifreyBase, I hated capaldis characterisation at first, but grew to like it a lot by the end. There were some very good stories there too. Everything since has been terrible. Too many companions (always hard to write for, and tends to diminish supporting cast of the episode, notably so as only 47 minutes long now, not the longer formats of the past. Doctors character all over the place. Pathetic love interest nonsense that just isn’t needed. Time to get back to a character spreading love and happiness through the galaxy. Fighting evil with a smile on his/her face and a boiling fury inside.
And if the doctor woke up and reported a weird dream in the style of Bobby Ewing, I’d shed no tears...
Let’s not turn into the cesspit that is gallifreybase.
You’re right about the companions. Too many and the writers are invariably having to write one out for most of the story.
I agree with your summary as to where the show needs to go. RTD could probably do it.
Bring back David Tennant, his Doctor having been trapped by The Master in some alternate reality machine, one that created situations where he was forced into thinking he had used up his regenerations and so was prevented from taking any risks that might have led to his ultimate demise. Or something.
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
You are probably right, but, I suggest, somewhat less than 50/50. These thoughts must be in people's minds. 1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go. 2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election 3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders 4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
Hi OKC, I think you misunderstand. There is a 'motion of no confidence' in the House of Commons, which has to be tabled by the Leader of the Opposition, and a 'vote of no confidence' which the Tories hold among themselves. If the latter is held and he loses, he is automatically removed as leader of the party. He cannot therefore go to the Queen and ask for a dissolution as it would not help him. In any case, the 1922 committee could decide to remove him immediately and install an acting leader if they wished or if he decided to do crazy stuff.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
You're overlooking a possibility here that is so outlandish it must surely have occurred to the PM. In the event of losing a VOC he just digs in his heels and refuses to resign. The Tory party could proceed with an election if they want but Johnson is PM until he isn't, HMQ has no power to dismiss him and the Conservative Party has no constitutional significance. In such a situation Starmer could move a motion of no confidence in HoC but it would be against HMG, not against Johnson personally, and it remains to be seen how the PCP would respond. Or Starmer could resist the temptation and leave the Tories swinging on the gibbet.
Thanks Mr S (I assume, if not apols). That was what I was getting at. We got close to a similar position late in 2019, before the Opposition parties were conned into supporting an election. It is possible, although unlikely, that, were Johnson to lose a Party VoNC he would remain in office with a rump Cabinet; after all one would expect Patel and Dorries, for example, to stick with him. It would be a nightmare for a few weeks.
I'll admit it's unlikely ... but not impossible. Johnson has used the Conservative Party as a ladder to the top. He might just be tempted to kick it away when it suits him.
He's got form of course; was the SDP candidate for the Oxford Union presidency the election he won.
"2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election"
She would refuse as it was obvious that he does not have the confidence of the House, but someone else does (i.e. the incoming leader).
Do you mean (a) the Tory party local vote or (b) a properly constituted VONC in the HoC?
In the case of (a) there is no requirement on Johnson to resign or to seek a fresh electoral mandate. He is PM and remains so until he isn't. In the case of (b), possibly with the PCP irreconcilably split 50-50, there is no obvious successor who would command a majority. The day after Callaghan lost his VoNC he went straight to the Palace and informed HMQ that she was granting him a dissolution. She will no doubt remember the occasion.
Anyone paying attention to the Marjorie Taylor Greene hearing?
It is just scene after scene of MTG saying she never said "The Dems are all blood sucking traitors" and then counsel presenting exhibit X which is video of MTG saying "The Dems are all blood sucking traitors".
Again, and again and again.
Obviously she is going to win this but it is all bleakly hilarious
For someone who accuses Biden of having dementia, she sure has a poor memory!
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Yes we know your agenda, Tory wipeout.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
Your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
I am not a Conservative, that is very true, but as the Conservative Party for most of my lifetime has been in government, and I daresay will be for most of the remainder I have skin in this game. I can live with being managed by Heath, Major or even Hunt. I don't want however to be represented at the UN by Patel, Dorries, JRM, Francois, Frost or Baker. I doubt many genuine one nation Conservatives do either.
No your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
Any party which loses its core vote heads to annihilation.
I'm afraid you are badly misguided.
You need to keep you core vote, of course, and on that point you are correct. But everything else is hopelessly wrong.
The skill of winning elections is to keep your core vote AND win over the floaters. Even better, if you can reach across the divides to people who would not normally vote for you. Thatcher for all her faults did it brilliantly. Blair for all his faults did it brilliantly. Johnson for all his faults did it mostly luckily, thanks to the brilliance of Dom Cummings and the unelectability and stupidity of Jeremy Corbyn.
But the moment you turn your focus myopically solely onto your core vote you lose. Viz: Hague, Corbyn, Major ('97), Foot, IDS and countless others through the sands of time.
You have to reach out to win.
I agree you need your core vote and the centre ideally as Thatcher, Blair and Boris achieved.
But on a forced choice keeping your core vote a la Corbyn 2019 or Hague 2001 is still better than losing your core vote a la Clegg 2015 if you have already lost the centre
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Yes we know your agenda, Tory wipeout.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
Your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
I am not a Conservative, that is very true, but as the Conservative Party for most of my lifetime has been in government, and I daresay will be for most of the remainder I have skin in this game. I can live with being managed by Heath, Major or even Hunt. I don't want however to be represented at the UN by Patel, Dorries, JRM, Francois, Frost or Baker. I doubt many genuine one nation Conservatives do either.
No your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
Any party which loses its core vote heads to annihilation. As the Canadian Tory Party faced wipeout in 1993 as it lost its core vote to Reform and Pecresse and Les Republicains faced wipeout earlier this month as it lost its core vote to Zemmour and Le Pen. Plus as the May Tories faced wipeout in the 2019 European elections as it lost its core vote to Farage and the Brexit Party. Plus as Clegg's LDs faced wipeout in 2015 after raising tuition fees and austerity. Abandon Brexit and the Tories face wipeout.
Thatcher and Boris however won 4 general elections between them. When the Tories removed Thatcher in 1990 they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections.
Had they not removed Thatcher they would have lost to Kinnock in 1992
Tennis pitches are dangerous places judging by the number of injuries Emma Raducanu is stacking up. She's just lost in Stuttgart with her dodgy hip, following on from blisters on her feet, which followed blisters on her hand, and apparently all her toenails have fallen out.
Sadly looking more and more like a British Anna Kournikova, than a British Serena Williams.
Mr. Taz, casting has, (Whitaker aside), generally been good, it's the writing that's fallen off a cliff. Damned shame for Capaldi, as grumpy older Doctor was exactly the sort I wanted but I couldn't stand the writing.
At the risk of turning pb into GallifreyBase, I hated capaldis characterisation at first, but grew to like it a lot by the end. There were some very good stories there too. Everything since has been terrible. Too many companions (always hard to write for, and tends to diminish supporting cast of the episode, notably so as only 47 minutes long now, not the longer formats of the past. Doctors character all over the place. Pathetic love interest nonsense that just isn’t needed. Time to get back to a character spreading love and happiness through the galaxy. Fighting evil with a smile on his/her face and a boiling fury inside.
And if the doctor woke up and reported a weird dream in the style of Bobby Ewing, I’d shed no tears...
Let’s not turn into the cesspit that is gallifreybase.
You’re right about the companions. Too many and the writers are invariably having to write one out for most of the story.
I agree with your summary as to where the show needs to go. RTD could probably do it.
Bring back David Tennant, his Doctor having been trapped by The Master in some alternate reality machine, one that created situations where he was forced into thinking he had used up his regenerations and so was prevented from taking any risks that might have led to his ultimate demise. Or something.
Bring back Peter Davidson or Sylvester McCoy.
You can enjoy their new adventures via www.bigfinish.com
They have been making new stuff since the late nineties.
Tennis pitches are dangerous places judging by the number of injuries Emma Raducanu is stacking up. She's just lost in Stuttgart with her dodgy hip, following on from blisters on her feet, which followed blisters on her hand, and apparently all her toenails have fallen out.
Sadly looking more and more like a British Anna Kournikova, than a British Serena Williams.
Yup. She’ll be a winning answer on pointless in ten years time ‘name a grand slam winner from the twenties’
Lolz at HY screeching on about any critics of the amoral lying crook wanting to "abandon Brexit".
Would invite him to define Brexit but I think he is ignoring me.
If "Brexit" is the "oven ready deal" that they were elected on, then Boris is "abandoning Brexit" as he is about to bin the NIP and bring down the TCA with it.
Tennis pitches are dangerous places judging by the number of injuries Emma Raducanu is stacking up. She's just lost in Stuttgart with her dodgy hip, following on from blisters on her feet, which followed blisters on her hand, and apparently all her toenails have fallen out.
Sadly looking more and more like a British Anna Kournikova, than a British Serena Williams.
Ah yes. It was you who said she had no chance on earth of winning SPOTY and no chance at all of winning the US Open.
So this latest prediction from your UAE hideaway in which you write off a 19-year old, will be treated at heathen house with the ridicule it deserves.
"Ukrainian forces liberate 3 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast.
According to Governor Oleh Synehubov, Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a successful counterattack on April 22, liberating and securing their positions in Bezruky, Slatine and Prudianka villages in Kharkiv Oblast."
I don't see this ending in a stalemate. If the Russian offensive in the Donbas is blunted the Ukrainians are going to push them back to the Russian border.
Anyway, off to Romania for crisis talks next week. Glad to see that Wizzair are in firm competition with Ryanair for who can add the silliest hidden charges.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Yes we know your agenda, Tory wipeout.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
Your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
I am not a Conservative, that is very true, but as the Conservative Party for most of my lifetime has been in government, and I daresay will be for most of the remainder I have skin in this game. I can live with being managed by Heath, Major or even Hunt. I don't want however to be represented at the UN by Patel, Dorries, JRM, Francois, Frost or Baker. I doubt many genuine one nation Conservatives do either.
No your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
Any party which loses its core vote heads to annihilation. As the Canadian Tory Party faced wipeout in 1993 as it lost its core vote to Reform and Pecresse and Les Republicains faced wipeout earlier this month as it lost its core vote to Zemmour and Le Pen. Plus as the May Tories faced wipeout in the 2019 European elections as it lost its core vote to Farage and the Brexit Party. Plus as Clegg's LDs faced wipeout in 2015 after raising tuition fees and austerity. Abandon Brexit and the Tories face wipeout.
Thatcher and Boris however won 4 general elections between them. When the Tories removed Thatcher in 1990 they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections.
Had they not removed Thatcher they would have lost to Kinnock in 1992
Yep.
But you can't teach an ostrich much when it has its head rammed into the sand.
No party in British electoral history before or since has received more votes than John Major's Conservatives did in 1992.
Tennis pitches are dangerous places judging by the number of injuries Emma Raducanu is stacking up. She's just lost in Stuttgart with her dodgy hip, following on from blisters on her feet, which followed blisters on her hand, and apparently all her toenails have fallen out.
Sadly looking more and more like a British Anna Kournikova, than a British Serena Williams.
Still early days, but something is not right there at the moment. She may just need time to mature, but it’s a also true that she has come into women’s tennis at a time without major dominating figures, and was able to win the us open withou facing many top 20 opponents. This should not detract from the enormity of what she achieved, but it’s possible that her career has already had its high point.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
You are wrong when you accuse critics of wanting to abandon Brexit, as a large proportion of the country have accepted Brexit but want it to work better for both the UK and EU's mutual benefit, especially following the war in Ukraine
It is not all or nothing
Mexicanpete was arguing for the Tories abandoning Brexit
Please explain where @Mexicanpete is suggesting abandoning Brexit
'The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.'
"Ukrainian forces liberate 3 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast.
According to Governor Oleh Synehubov, Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a successful counterattack on April 22, liberating and securing their positions in Bezruky, Slatine and Prudianka villages in Kharkiv Oblast."
I don't see this ending in a stalemate. If the Russian offensive in the Donbas is blunted the Ukrainians are going to push them back to the Russian border.
I wonder how the Rusians are going to hold Crimea if their navy is on the seabed?
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
The Tories chose Johnson to save their seats at the general election. When they finally show him the door it will be for the same reason. It's therefore almost impossible to see them turning to Gove.
Where Gove might play a crucial role is in throwing his support behind another candidate. Were Gove to announce his support for Javid, Truss or Hunt, say in return for being their Chancellor, then it would give that candidate a big boost. In particular, Hunt really needs the support of a big Brexit supporter as a sign that the Brexit division is done and over.
I think that's astute. For Hunt (or any other "remainer") to win, they will need the explicit endorsement of one or more of the Big Beasts of Brexit. Given the calibre of the competition, I think he may well get that.
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
Gove is an infamous plotter, and has been curiously invisible these last couple of months.
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
The Tories chose Johnson to save their seats at the general election. When they finally show him the door it will be for the same reason. It's therefore almost impossible to see them turning to Gove.
Where Gove might play a crucial role is in throwing his support behind another candidate. Were Gove to announce his support for Javid, Truss or Hunt, say in return for being their Chancellor, then it would give that candidate a big boost. In particular, Hunt really needs the support of a big Brexit supporter as a sign that the Brexit division is done and over.
I think that's astute. For Hunt (or any other "remainer") to win, they will need the explicit endorsement of one or more of the Big Beasts of Brexit. Given the calibre of the competition, I think he may well get that.
He won't, they would go for Wallace over Hunt. Wallace would be Major to Hunt's Heseltine
His seat seems to be becoming younger and more ethnically diverse. It will be labour either in 2024 or the election after.
He may as well enjoy his time and influence now. It will go soon enough.
Worth noting too his seat loses a Tory ward to Chesham and Amersham under the boundary review. Probably worth a net c.1k votes off his 4k majority on 2019 figures.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Yes we know your agenda, Tory wipeout.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
Your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
I am not a Conservative, that is very true, but as the Conservative Party for most of my lifetime has been in government, and I daresay will be for most of the remainder I have skin in this game. I can live with being managed by Heath, Major or even Hunt. I don't want however to be represented at the UN by Patel, Dorries, JRM, Francois, Frost or Baker. I doubt many genuine one nation Conservatives do either.
No your agenda is the road to Tory wipeout.
Any party which loses its core vote heads to annihilation. As the Canadian Tory Party faced wipeout in 1993 as it lost its core vote to Reform and Pecresse and Les Republicains faced wipeout earlier this month as it lost its core vote to Zemmour and Le Pen. Plus as the May Tories faced wipeout in the 2019 European elections as it lost its core vote to Farage and the Brexit Party. Plus as Clegg's LDs faced wipeout in 2015 after raising tuition fees and austerity. Abandon Brexit and the Tories face wipeout.
Thatcher and Boris however won 4 general elections between them. When the Tories removed Thatcher in 1990 they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections.
Had they not removed Thatcher they would have lost to Kinnock in 1992
True but had they narrowly lost in 1992 they would have avoided landslide defeat in 1997 and maybe even beaten PM Kinnock in 1997
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
True, but it highlights the difficulty of the Conservative situation.
The Community Charge was a flagship policy in the 1987 manifesto. But it was one ship- once it was rightly scuttled, there was still a decent fleet left.
Brexit is the entire navy for this government, including all the land bases that are called HMS despite not being ships.
Having gone for maximal Brexit, the U-turn to soften it will be so huge that it can only be done in opposition. Even though it's sensible thing to do.
Ironically, the only man with the chutzpah to get away with it is the incumbent PM, and he's fatally wounded. Just not dead yet. (Or possibly he is dead but hasn't noticed.)
In its current incarnation the Tory membership will still only select a Brexiteer and a hard-line one if there is one on offer. I am struggling to see a competent contender who fits that bill.
I believe the main reason Tory MPs are refraining from decapitating Johnson is that they realise that amongst the Brexiteers he is about as good as it gets. All the better options are former remainers and therefore won't get past the membership. Their only hope is that the MPs stop a real doozy getting to the last 2.
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
The Tories chose Johnson to save their seats at the general election. When they finally show him the door it will be for the same reason. It's therefore almost impossible to see them turning to Gove.
Where Gove might play a crucial role is in throwing his support behind another candidate. Were Gove to announce his support for Javid, Truss or Hunt, say in return for being their Chancellor, then it would give that candidate a big boost. In particular, Hunt really needs the support of a big Brexit supporter as a sign that the Brexit division is done and over.
I think that's astute. For Hunt (or any other "remainer") to win, they will need the explicit endorsement of one or more of the Big Beasts of Brexit. Given the calibre of the competition, I think he may well get that.
He won't, they would go for Wallace over Hunt. Wallace would be Major to Hunt's Heseltine
Thanks for correcting me - never a smidgen of self-doubt, is there? You should bet large as you're always right.
Tennis pitches are dangerous places judging by the number of injuries Emma Raducanu is stacking up. She's just lost in Stuttgart with her dodgy hip, following on from blisters on her feet, which followed blisters on her hand, and apparently all her toenails have fallen out.
Sadly looking more and more like a British Anna Kournikova, than a British Serena Williams.
Nah, she has genuinely had a major achievement on the court. It may be she ends up being a one hit wonder, but that is not the same thing as an Anna.
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
The Tories chose Johnson to save their seats at the general election. When they finally show him the door it will be for the same reason. It's therefore almost impossible to see them turning to Gove.
Where Gove might play a crucial role is in throwing his support behind another candidate. Were Gove to announce his support for Javid, Truss or Hunt, say in return for being their Chancellor, then it would give that candidate a big boost. In particular, Hunt really needs the support of a big Brexit supporter as a sign that the Brexit division is done and over.
I think that's astute. For Hunt (or any other "remainer") to win, they will need the explicit endorsement of one or more of the Big Beasts of Brexit. Given the calibre of the competition, I think he may well get that.
He won't, they would go for Wallace over Hunt. Wallace would be Major to Hunt's Heseltine
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
Gove is an infamous plotter, and has been curiously invisible these last couple of months.
Coke is coke. I am sure most of the cabinet have done tons of it, but I think being on the record is a bar to being PM, especially after a party scandal
"Ukrainian forces liberate 3 settlements in Kharkiv Oblast.
According to Governor Oleh Synehubov, Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a successful counterattack on April 22, liberating and securing their positions in Bezruky, Slatine and Prudianka villages in Kharkiv Oblast."
I don't see this ending in a stalemate. If the Russian offensive in the Donbas is blunted the Ukrainians are going to push them back to the Russian border.
I wonder how the Rusians are going to hold Crimea if their navy is on the seabed?
Given the population there probably actually is pro-Russian in a way which enabled a swifter formal annexation than Donbas, dare the Ukrainians attempt to retake, if the opportunity even arose?
If they could regain most of the rest and the stalemate was then Crimea, that would also mean sanctions and Russian lockout of things could continue.
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
The Tories chose Johnson to save their seats at the general election. When they finally show him the door it will be for the same reason. It's therefore almost impossible to see them turning to Gove.
Where Gove might play a crucial role is in throwing his support behind another candidate. Were Gove to announce his support for Javid, Truss or Hunt, say in return for being their Chancellor, then it would give that candidate a big boost. In particular, Hunt really needs the support of a big Brexit supporter as a sign that the Brexit division is done and over.
I think that's astute. For Hunt (or any other "remainer") to win, they will need the explicit endorsement of one or more of the Big Beasts of Brexit. Given the calibre of the competition, I think he may well get that.
He won't, they would go for Wallace over Hunt. Wallace would be Major to Hunt's Heseltine
Or Wallace would be just Wallace
Rule 1 of the Tories - everything must be compared to the Thatcher era.
Anyway, off to Romania for crisis talks next week. Glad to see that Wizzair are in firm competition with Ryanair for who can add the silliest hidden charges.
What exactly is the political appeal of Jeremy Hunt?
He is unusual amongst senior politicians in that he actually listens to people, and changes his mind. He is intelligent, a good communicator and would appoint a much stronger cabinet.
For example of him changing his mind, consider Brexit. He is capable of negotiating a workeable solution, as opposed to an unworkable permenant greivance.
For example in the junior doctors strike, he made sufficient concessions to end the dispute, and instantly shelved plans to implement a similar contract on senior staff. He knew it was a battle not worth repeating.
What exactly is the political appeal of Jeremy Hunt?
He's not Boris Johnson. Simples!
Most elections are won from the centre. Brexit + Corbynism has caused both major parties to lose the concept of 'the centre'. Brexit split the centre ground of UK (especially English) politics. Even really astute commentators like Mr Meeks were, and are, unable to see that most Brexiteers, like Remainers, were centrists for the simple reason that there aren't enough extremists to go round.
Hunt would have the capacity and starting point to recreate a centrist Tory politics, as SKS is doing with Labour. Because Brexit is 'done' (though of course it isn't) it can lose its place as the issue which splits the centre into two acrimonious factions. We could then return to two centrist parties taking turns to play at being government in a country which is both wonderful and impossible to govern.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
True, but it highlights the difficulty of the Conservative situation.
The Community Charge was a flagship policy in the 1987 manifesto. But it was one ship- once it was rightly scuttled, there was still a decent fleet left.
Brexit is the entire navy for this government, including all the land bases that are called HMS despite not being ships.
Having gone for maximal Brexit, the U-turn to soften it will be so huge that it can only be done in opposition. Even though it's sensible thing to do.
Ironically, the only man with the chutzpah to get away with it is the incumbent PM, and he's fatally wounded. Just not dead yet. (Or possibly he is dead but hasn't noticed.)
In its current incarnation the Tory membership will still only select a Brexiteer and a hard-line one if there is one on offer. I am struggling to see a competent contender who fits that bill.
I believe the main reason Tory MPs are refraining from decapitating Johnson is that they realise that amongst the Brexiteers he is about as good as it gets. All the better options are former remainers and therefore won't get past the membership. Their only hope is that the MPs stop a real doozy getting to the last 2.
Worth remembering of course that Tory MPs wouldn't go for Boris until they were desperate, which is why he chickened out in 2016. Given the 2019 success one can hardly fault their choice from a short term perspective. So the MPs really can finagle it so only an 'accpetable' figure reaches the membership, so all they need is someone who is not a complete loon like Francois to get into the final two.
Off topic, I'm now a Dad. Had the longest hour of my life when my better half was taken to theatre for emergency c section tho.
WooHoo! Congratulations!
Hope mother and child are okay after all of that. And life gets a little different from now on...
Well since he’ll be doing the overnight feeds he will get a lot more Firsts…
Some people have all the luck. A baby now; Firsts in the future; and sex last July.
Congratulations @Pulpstar! My first was also an emergency c section - really odd experience. For me, it was over before I had time to take in the gravity of the situation. Hope mum and baby are well. If I could offer one reflection from experience - it came as something of a shock to me how joyless the first few weeks were. I had expected it to be hard work, I hadn't expected it to be so unrewarding. The only positive feedback you get from newborns is them sleeping. Unlike mothers, fathers don't get oxytocin hormones to get them through it. I remember in the first fortnight I was counting down the days until she was 18. Happy to report that by about week 6 to 8 I was smitten, to the extent that I went on to have two more. My oldest is now 12 and 18 seems all too sadly close. So if it all seems horribly tough and unrewarding, that's because it is - but this phase will last weeks, not years.
The only way to "abandon Brexit" is to rejoin. All other options fall into "Brexit I, personally, don't like."
Indeed. We've had years of 'Brexit X is no true Brexit' stuff, and at the more extreme end there might be a point, but one would hope the attack is losing is efficacy somewhat - there's a real broad range of Brexits.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
You are wrong when you accuse critics of wanting to abandon Brexit, as a large proportion of the country have accepted Brexit but want it to work better for both the UK and EU's mutual benefit, especially following the war in Ukraine
It is not all or nothing
Mexicanpete was arguing for the Tories abandoning Brexit
Please explain where @Mexicanpete is suggesting abandoning Brexit
'The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.'
Trouble is this.
There are those who understand Brexit as being out of the structures of the EU, and would be content if we were to independently decide to do pretty much the same as the EU as long as it's off our own bat, and have the occasional tweak. It's not a crazy position to take. Plenty of small states prosper that way.
But that's not what most Brexit backers have spent decades trying to achieve. When they condemn BEANO, they have a point. UK-EU relations may be between sovereign bodies, but saying "Sovereign Equals" is to deny the existence of counting.
Me? I'd prefer a broadly pointless Brexit to an actively harmful one, and I suspect that the way out of Brexit is to gradually dilute it to homeopathic levels, but it's not my fight
Off topic, I'm now a Dad. Had the longest hour of my life when my better half was taken to theatre for emergency c section tho.
WooHoo! Congratulations!
Hope mother and child are okay after all of that. And life gets a little different from now on...
Well since he’ll be doing the overnight feeds he will get a lot more Firsts…
Some people have all the luck. A baby now; Firsts in the future; and sex last July.
Congratulations @Pulpstar! My first was also an emergency c section - really odd experience. For me, it was over before I had time to take in the gravity of the situation. Hope mum and baby are well. If I could offer one reflection from experience - it came as something of a shock to me how joyless the first few weeks were. I had expected it to be hard work, I hadn't expected it to be so unrewarding. The only positive feedback you get from newborns is them sleeping. Unlike mothers, fathers don't get oxytocin hormones to get them through it. I remember in the first fortnight I was counting down the days until she was 18. Happy to report that by about week 6 to 8 I was smitten, to the extent that I went on to have two more. My oldest is now 12 and 18 seems all too sadly close. So if it all seems horribly tough and unrewarding, that's because it is - but this phase will last weeks, not years.
That's a very sweet and thougtful comment. I can only imagine it, but I can picture the difficulties of new parents thinking certain feelings are expected of them, but they haven't really hit them yet.
Off topic, I'm now a Dad. Had the longest hour of my life when my better half was taken to theatre for emergency c section tho.
WooHoo! Congratulations!
Hope mother and child are okay after all of that. And life gets a little different from now on...
Well since he’ll be doing the overnight feeds he will get a lot more Firsts…
Some people have all the luck. A baby now; Firsts in the future; and sex last July.
Congratulations @Pulpstar! My first was also an emergency c section - really odd experience. For me, it was over before I had time to take in the gravity of the situation. Hope mum and baby are well. If I could offer one reflection from experience - it came as something of a shock to me how joyless the first few weeks were. I had expected it to be hard work, I hadn't expected it to be so unrewarding. The only positive feedback you get from newborns is them sleeping. Unlike mothers, fathers don't get oxytocin hormones to get them through it. I remember in the first fortnight I was counting down the days until she was 18. Happy to report that by about week 6 to 8 I was smitten, to the extent that I went on to have two more. My oldest is now 12 and 18 seems all too sadly close. So if it all seems horribly tough and unrewarding, that's because it is - but this phase will last weeks, not years.
All spot on
The fringe benefit of the emercency C is it gives you an automatic right to elective Cs for ever after.
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
Gove is an infamous plotter, and has been curiously invisible these last couple of months.
Coke is coke. I am sure most of the cabinet have done tons of it, but I think being on the record is a bar to being PM, especially after a party scandal
It was no bar to Obama becoming senator or president 🤷♂️
I wonder whether Gove is being overlooked a bit at 20-1. The Cameroons that wanted to see him burn in 2016 and 2019 have mostly gone. He ticks the Brexit box and I think has been mostly forgiven by the Boris backers after his 2016 Et Tu Brute moment. So he’s not a turnoff for the bigger part of the parliamentary party anymore. He seems to hold respect for how he handles a brief. And his dirty linen is presumably more or less aired by now.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
Gove is an infamous plotter, and has been curiously invisible these last couple of months.
Coke is coke. I am sure most of the cabinet have done tons of it, but I think being on the record is a bar to being PM, especially after a party scandal
It was no bar to Obama becoming senator or president 🤷♂️
Icing sugar was no bar to Boris becoming Prime Minister.
Anyway, off to Romania for crisis talks next week. Glad to see that Wizzair are in firm competition with Ryanair for who can add the silliest hidden charges.
Michael O'Leary walks into a bar.
The barman recognises him and greets him with "special offer today, two pints of Guiness for €1"
O'Leary "sounds great!" and hands over his €1.
Barman: "now, would you be wanting to hire two glasses for those..."
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
How about you talk about what you want to talk about, and others will talk about what they want to talk about?
Anyway, off to Romania for crisis talks next week. Glad to see that Wizzair are in firm competition with Ryanair for who can add the silliest hidden charges.
Michael O'Leary walks into a bar.
The barman recognises him and greets him with "special offer today, two pints of Guiness for €1"
O'Leary "sounds great!" and hands over his €1.
Barman: "now, would you be wanting to hire two glasses for those..."
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
“Struggling to make ends meet”. So that explains why you’ve still not forked out a few pounds for a non compromised vpn.
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
Have we done this? This is truly frightening on so many levels.
Nadine Dorries has done it again.
The culture secretary prompted ridicule after featuring in a fellow Tory MP’s TikTok to explain her job.
But her phrasing raised a few quizzical eyebrows, and lent weight to the suggestion she struggles to fully grasp her brief.
In the clip shared by Luke Evans, she says the department of culture, media and sport is responsible for broadband, which means “you can downstream your movies” at home. People typically download movies.
One of her goals is to “make the internet in the UK the safest internet in the world”. The internet doesn’t really have national boundaries.
Dorries also fronts the Whitehall department in charge of sport, which involves “tennis pitches” (they’re usually referred to as courts), which is one of the places where you can “exercise your sports”.
No wonder Nadine Dorries is such an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson, she is so dense that light bends around her.
I’m sorry but I just think this is nothing. She seems to have mixed up streaming and downloading and called a tennis court a pitch. Big deal. This just strikes me as a needless cheap dig. People do it all the time.
People do but maybe the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media, Sport and Prostate Massages for Thick Leaver Twats shouldn't.
It’s micro stuff though. It’s irrelevant. The fact she doesn’t know is neither here nor there.
It's actually the blatant simpering and hair flicking I find most disturbing.
Its the Existential Sport that I rather fancy. Competitive Gauloise smoking?
Still thinking about 'exercise your sports' - walk your mutant dogs on the local tennis court? I'm sure that woould go down well.
Irrespective of that, it's dangerous not only to seem unaware of key distinctions (as I complained earlier) . Anyone coming out with what she has done risks being very audibly clueless to a very large chunk of the voting population. It's the DCMS equivalent of the C of the E not knowing the price of a litre of milk.
The betting odds show why, in the end, Boris will survive to the next election - as there's just no clear alternative.
It also shows why, after Boris Johnson goes (if he either loses the next election or wins the next election and stands down sometime in the middle of the next Parliament) the Conservatives will probably be facing a decade in Opposition as again, there's no clear alternative.
Anyway, off to Romania for crisis talks next week. Glad to see that Wizzair are in firm competition with Ryanair for who can add the silliest hidden charges.
Michael O'Leary walks into a bar.
The barman recognises him and greets him with "special offer today, two pints of Guiness for €1"
O'Leary "sounds great!" and hands over his €1.
Barman: "now, would you be wanting to hire two glasses for those..."
Comments
I am not a Conservative, that is very true, but as the Conservative Party for most of my lifetime has been in government, and I daresay will be for most of the remainder I have skin in this game. I can live with being managed by Heath, Major or even Hunt. I don't want however to be represented at the UN by Patel, Dorries, JRM, Francois, Frost or Baker. I doubt many genuine one nation Conservatives do either.
You’re right about the companions. Too many and the writers are invariably having to write one out for most of the story.
I agree with your summary as to where the show needs to go. RTD could probably do it.
In which case, yet another calculation is that the rest of the party need to keep tight hold to nurse, for fear of someone even worse... Even if nurse has been struck off for unprofessional behaviour.
a) Yes, Boris could last some time. Hills have him at 6/5 to be out 2024 or later. I think that's too short but not outrageous. The chance of Boris winning the next election are not massive but not tiny. In that case no-one has any idea who could pop up.
b) There will be a couple of overlooked people who are lying very low, as well as chancers like Baker who, if MPs and membership combined in being bonkers at the same time could be in the mix. Remember when Steve Crabb thought he was in the running? There will be a few of those.
Quality back-pedalling.
Ceasefire means sanctions should remain until territory and people taken are returned. Hopefully Ukraine will not feel it has no choice but to concede sanctions as part of a deal.
Your post raises another question: Whatever the PM has done wrong (other than getting a prison term etc) are there in fact mechanisms to force him to resign, or does it rest on convention and expectation? If the latter, there may be further distance to run.
Sure he might be unpopular with the general electorate but he’s smart and I suspect would be as capable of beating Starmer as anyone else mentioned. With such a paucity of candidates, you can imagine him squeaking into the two. And once there I think his odds would be quite good, excellent in fact if up against Hunt.
It is not all or nothing
Any party which loses its core vote heads to annihilation. As the Canadian Tory Party faced wipeout in 1993 as it lost its core vote to Reform and Pecresse and Les Republicains faced wipeout earlier this month as it lost its core vote to Zemmour and Le Pen. Plus as the May Tories faced wipeout in the 2019 European elections as it lost its core vote to Farage and the Brexit Party. Plus as Clegg's LDs faced wipeout in 2015 after raising tuition fees and austerity. Abandon Brexit and the Tories face wipeout.
As for the great electoral success of Heath and Major, they lost 4 general elections between them with only 2 wins. Hunt too has a -22% rating with the public with Yougov.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Jeremy_Hunt
Thatcher and Boris however won 4 general elections between them. When the Tories removed Thatcher in 1990 they then lost 3 out of 4 of the following general elections.
I knew she was not a Tory MP
My question remains, is her performance parody, or something else?
I don't like all or even many of Steve Baker's views but I respect him.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/22/steve-baker-mp-sick-cabinet-sitting-fat-dumb-happy/
And the point about making the internet the safest in the UK is a reference to her policy on requiring ISPs to police it. Clear what she meant
But beware the price to pay.
Where Gove might play a crucial role is in throwing his support behind another candidate. Were Gove to announce his support for Javid, Truss or Hunt, say in return for being their Chancellor, then it would give that candidate a big boost. In particular, Hunt really needs the support of a big Brexit supporter as a sign that the Brexit division is done and over.
You need to keep you core vote, of course, and on that point you are correct. But everything else is hopelessly wrong.
The skill of winning elections is to keep your core vote AND win over the floaters. Even better, if you can reach across the divides to people who would not normally vote for you. Thatcher for all her faults did it brilliantly. Blair for all his faults did it brilliantly. Johnson for all his faults did it mostly luckily, thanks to the brilliance of Dom Cummings and the unelectability and stupidity of Jeremy Corbyn.
But the moment you turn your focus myopically solely onto your core vote you lose. Viz: Hague, Corbyn, Major ('97), Foot, IDS and countless others through the sands of time.
You have to reach out to win.
https://www.pollcat-stats.com/london2022/sutton/
He may as well enjoy his time and influence now. It will go soon enough.
In the case of (a) there is no requirement on Johnson to resign or to seek a fresh electoral mandate. He is PM and remains so until he isn't. In the case of (b), possibly with the PCP irreconcilably split 50-50, there is no obvious successor who would command a majority. The day after Callaghan lost his VoNC he went straight to the Palace and informed HMQ that she was granting him a dissolution. She will no doubt remember the occasion.
But on a forced choice keeping your core vote a la Corbyn 2019 or Hague 2001 is still better than losing your core vote a la Clegg 2015 if you have already lost the centre
They have been making new stuff since the late nineties.
Would invite him to define Brexit but I think he is ignoring me.
If "Brexit" is the "oven ready deal" that they were elected on, then Boris is "abandoning Brexit" as he is about to bin the NIP and bring down the TCA with it.
Its laughable.
So this latest prediction from your UAE hideaway in which you write off a 19-year old, will be treated at heathen house with the ridicule it deserves.
According to Governor Oleh Synehubov, Ukrainian Armed Forces launched a successful counterattack on April 22, liberating and securing their positions in Bezruky, Slatine and Prudianka villages in Kharkiv Oblast."
https://twitter.com/KyivIndependent/status/1517789178335047680
I don't see this ending in a stalemate. If the Russian offensive in the Donbas is blunted the Ukrainians are going to push them back to the Russian border.
But you can't teach an ostrich much when it has its head rammed into the sand.
No party in British electoral history before or since has received more votes than John Major's Conservatives did in 1992.
'The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.'
I believe the main reason Tory MPs are refraining from decapitating Johnson is that they realise that amongst the Brexiteers he is about as good as it gets. All the better options are former remainers and therefore won't get past the membership. Their only hope is that the MPs stop a real doozy getting to the last 2.
If they could regain most of the rest and the stalemate was then Crimea, that would also mean sanctions and Russian lockout of things could continue.
All other options fall into "Brexit I, personally, don't like."
For example of him changing his mind, consider Brexit. He is capable of negotiating a workeable solution, as opposed to an unworkable permenant greivance.
For example in the junior doctors strike, he made sufficient concessions to end the dispute, and instantly shelved plans to implement a similar contract on senior staff. He knew it was a battle not worth repeating.
Hunt would have the capacity and starting point to recreate a centrist Tory politics, as SKS is doing with Labour. Because Brexit is 'done' (though of course it isn't) it can lose its place as the issue which splits the centre into two acrimonious factions. We could then return to two centrist parties taking turns to play at being government in a country which is both wonderful and impossible to govern.
She was almost in love with Boris. I mean, drooling to the point of making me despair. In the past he was messianic. Now she thinks he has to go.
You myopics can dismiss this if you like and accuse me of whatever, trolling is it? Or making it all up? Or blah blah but it's true.
And I guess this is what the tory MPs are hearing every day when they're in the constituencies.
Read the writing on the wall or face wipeout.
My first was also an emergency c section - really odd experience. For me, it was over before I had time to take in the gravity of the situation. Hope mum and baby are well.
If I could offer one reflection from experience - it came as something of a shock to me how joyless the first few weeks were. I had expected it to be hard work, I hadn't expected it to be so unrewarding. The only positive feedback you get from newborns is them sleeping. Unlike mothers, fathers don't get oxytocin hormones to get them through it. I remember in the first fortnight I was counting down the days until she was 18. Happy to report that by about week 6 to 8 I was smitten, to the extent that I went on to have two more. My oldest is now 12 and 18 seems all too sadly close.
So if it all seems horribly tough and unrewarding, that's because it is - but this phase will last weeks, not years.
There are those who understand Brexit as being out of the structures of the EU, and would be content if we were to independently decide to do pretty much the same as the EU as long as it's off our own bat, and have the occasional tweak. It's not a crazy position to take. Plenty of small states prosper that way.
But that's not what most Brexit backers have spent decades trying to achieve. When they condemn BEANO, they have a point. UK-EU relations may be between sovereign bodies, but saying "Sovereign Equals" is to deny the existence of counting.
Me? I'd prefer a broadly pointless Brexit to an actively harmful one, and I suspect that the way out of Brexit is to gradually dilute it to homeopathic levels, but it's not my fight
The fringe benefit of the emercency C is it gives you an automatic right to elective Cs for ever after.
The barman recognises him and greets him with "special offer today, two pints of Guiness for €1"
O'Leary "sounds great!" and hands over his €1.
Barman: "now, would you be wanting to hire two glasses for those..."
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
Glass rental - €2
Dishwashing fee - €1
Drayman fee - €1
Hands over a €5 note
Oh, there’s a 50c cash handling surcharge, a music licence fee of 30c, and a disabled access fee of 20c, so that’s €1 extra please.
Irrespective of that, it's dangerous not only to seem unaware of key distinctions (as I complained earlier) . Anyone coming out with what she has done risks being very audibly clueless to a very large chunk of the voting population. It's the DCMS equivalent of the C of the E not knowing the price of a litre of milk.
It also shows why, after Boris Johnson goes (if he either loses the next election or wins the next election and stands down sometime in the middle of the next Parliament) the Conservatives will probably be facing a decade in Opposition as again, there's no clear alternative.
2030'S will be a Labour decade IMO.
https://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/ryanair-fly-couple-wrong-country-26220931