The betting odds show why, in the end, Boris will survive to the next election - as there's just no clear alternative.
It also shows why, after Boris Johnson goes (if he either loses the next election or wins the next election and stands down sometime in the middle of the next Parliament) the Conservatives will probably be facing a decade in Opposition as again, there's no clear alternative.
2030'S will be a Labour decade IMO.
It's a classic irresistible force (this shambles can't continue) meets immovable object (I'm sure the rapier wits here can comment on that) scenario. And such scenarios can stay in static equilibrium for an awfully long time. But they can also collapse awfully suddenly.
A bright sunny morning here in Tallinn where apparently Russia has launched a massive DDOS attack against Estonian government websites. This is supposed to coincide with the annual NATO Locked Shields cyber defence exercise which was taking place here this week. Happy to say that there has been essentially no impact and even the presidential website, is functioning normally. My friends in the Defence League cyber defence unit are feeling quite pleased with themselves, since a) they have prevented any serious impact and b) everytime the Russians launch these attacks they provide the Estonians with a link map of Russian cyberspace, which will be helpful when NATO chooses to launch a counter attack.
Although the Russians are quite serious about their wishes to occupy all of Southern and Eastern Ukraine and link to Moldova, there is a sense here today that the new kit being supplied to Ukraine will actually stop this. Certainly if their cyber attacks are the best that they can do, then Estonia does not feel undue concern.
While JRR Tolkien is right that "It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him", there is a sense that this particular dragon has many holes in his scales: poor equipment, poor troops, poor tactics, poor leadership and so on. A coffee shop in the Old Town has provided the following advice to Putin: "why don´t we just skip ahead to the point where you shoot yourself in the bunker?".
Have a nice weekend everyone and congratulations to @Pulpstar
On topic. Though I respect Mike Smithson as a wise wizard of Political Analysing - there is quite a bit a disagree about the header.
“ The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election. “. Oh? Surely Starmer v Truss can only produce one winner, and a big winner at that?
“ my sense is that we are closer to seeing such a move now than at any time during the Johnson leadership.” My own opinion we were closer to a vonc with Partygate at height end of January and Sunak as shoe in, on basis they could have won one then, they won’t call it after the locals because they don’t have the numbers to win it now, the war has firmed up Boris support in pcp the party and country.
Anyway, off to Romania for crisis talks next week. Glad to see that Wizzair are in firm competition with Ryanair for who can add the silliest hidden charges.
Michael O'Leary walks into a bar.
The barman recognises him and greets him with "special offer today, two pints of Guiness for €1"
O'Leary "sounds great!" and hands over his €1.
Barman: "now, would you be wanting to hire two glasses for those..."
Sorry, but that website is a fucking disgrace. Adverts popping up literally left right and centre, making the text jump around. What a fucking wreck, how can anyone read that?
"Appearing on the TikTok page of fellow Conservative MP Luke Evans, Ms Dorries tried to introduce herself and explain her role.
Describing the job of culture secretary, she said: “We’re responsible for making sure you have superfast broadband in your home, that means you can downstream your movies.”
...
It’s not clear why Dr Evans uploaded the video despite the errors."
Happy St Jordi’s day! Glad to report that the weather currently seems much better than forecast (rain and cloud all day). I went out for my habitual morning wander, and was hassled at nearly every street corner by teenagers trying to sell me a rose. I eventually buckled when a very sweet lad of about fourteen gave me an impressive pitch in his best English. I am at least now being left alone by the rose hawks (who seem to be getting older as I get closer to town again).
I’m heading for Plaça Sant Jaume, as I definitely want to see some sardana dancing before I leave Barcelona this afternoon. I’ve stopped for my first beer just across from what looks like an impressive market hall (St Antoni market according to my map). Hopefully I can report back later with dancing 🕺🏼💃🏼 pictures!
On topic. Though I respect Mike Smithson as a wise wizard of Political Analysing - there is quite a bit a disagree about the header.
“ The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election. “. Oh? Surely Starmer v Truss can only produce one winner, and a big winner at that?
“ my sense is that we are closer to seeing such a move now than at any time during the Johnson leadership.” My own opinion we were closer to a vonc with Partygate at height end of January and Sunak as shoe in, on basis they could have won one then, they won’t call it after the locals because they don’t have the numbers to win it now, the war has firmed up Boris support in pcp the party and country.
Nah, you are well off the pace. I was right, my rightness was put on hold by Ukraine, now I am right again. The mood has shifted irreversibly, may 5 is going to be even worse than forecast, and there is no way for him to survive another fpn
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
Brexit still affects very many people. Most in a negative way. Some disasterously so. Because you're not one of them is lucky for you. But that doesn't stop it being an ongoing concern just because you've lost interest
Happy St Jordi’s day! Glad to report that the weather currently seems much better than forecast (rain and cloud all day). I went out for my habitual morning wander, and was hassled at nearly every street corner by teenagers trying to sell me a rose. I eventually buckled when a very sweet lad of about fourteen gave me an impressive pitch in his best English. I am at least now being left alone by the rose hawks (who seem to be getting older as I get closer to town again).
I’m heading for Plaça Sant Jaume, as I definitely want to see some sardana dancing before I leave Barcelona this afternoon. I’ve stopped for my first beer just across from what looks like an impressive market hall (St Antoni market according to my map). Hopefully I can report back later with dancing 🕺🏼💃🏼 pictures!
There's a pretty impressive church not far from you. It's still being built but it's still worth a look. Not many people know about it.
Where’s that? I’ll try to fit it in my walking and drinking schedule.
Happy St Jordi’s day! Glad to report that the weather currently seems much better than forecast (rain and cloud all day). I went out for my habitual morning wander, and was hassled at nearly every street corner by teenagers trying to sell me a rose. I eventually buckled when a very sweet lad of about fourteen gave me an impressive pitch in his best English. I am at least now being left alone by the rose hawks (who seem to be getting older as I get closer to town again).
I’m heading for Plaça Sant Jaume, as I definitely want to see some sardana dancing before I leave Barcelona this afternoon. I’ve stopped for my first beer just across from what looks like an impressive market hall (St Antoni market according to my map). Hopefully I can report back later with dancing 🕺🏼💃🏼 pictures!
There's a pretty impressive church not far from you. It's still being built but it's still worth a look. Not many people know about it.
I find Spanish churches in general rather too gaudy for my taste.
A bright sunny morning here in Tallinn where apparently Russia has launched a massive DDOS attack against Estonian government websites. This is supposed to coincide with the annual NATO Locked Shields cyber defence exercise which was taking place here this week. Happy to say that there has been essentially no impact and even the presidential website, is functioning normally. My friends in the Defence League cyber defence unit are feeling quite pleased with themselves, since a) they have prevented any serious impact and b) everytime the Russians launch these attacks they provide the Estonians with a link map of Russian cyberspace, which will be helpful when NATO chooses to launch a counter attack.
Although the Russians are quite serious about their wishes to occupy all of Southern and Eastern Ukraine and link to Moldova, there is a sense here today that the new kit being supplied to Ukraine will actually stop this. Certainly if their cyber attacks are the best that they can do, then Estonia does not feel undue concern.
While JRR Tolkien is right that "It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him", there is a sense that this particular dragon has many holes in his scales: poor equipment, poor troops, poor tactics, poor leadership and so on. A coffee shop in the Old Town has provided the following advice to Putin: "why don´t we just skip ahead to the point where you shoot yourself in the bunker?".
Have a nice weekend everyone and congratulations to @Pulpstar
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
Brexit still affects very many people. Most in a negative way. Some disasterously so. Because you're not one of them is lucky for you. But that doesn't stop it being an ongoing concern just because you've lost interest
Remainers should shut up about leaving the EU the same way that Eurosceptics shut up about us being a member.
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
Brexit still affects very many people. Most in a negative way. Some disasterously so. Because you're not one of them is lucky for you. But that doesn't stop it being an ongoing concern just because you've lost interest
LOL! Where are you in the five stages of grief process now Roger?
On topic. Though I respect Mike Smithson as a wise wizard of Political Analysing - there is quite a bit a disagree about the header.
“ The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election. “. Oh? Surely Starmer v Truss can only produce one winner, and a big winner at that?
“ my sense is that we are closer to seeing such a move now than at any time during the Johnson leadership.” My own opinion we were closer to a vonc with Partygate at height end of January and Sunak as shoe in, on basis they could have won one then, they won’t call it after the locals because they don’t have the numbers to win it now, the war has firmed up Boris support in pcp the party and country.
Thanks for the Le Pen tip. It's not often you get a certainty at those odds. I'll probably spend my winnings on an electric car
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
Brexit still affects very many people. Most in a negative way. Some disasterously so. Because you're not one of them is lucky for you. But that doesn't stop it being an ongoing concern just because you've lost interest
LOL! Where are you in the five stages of grief process now Roger?
I'm five years in and it doesn't get any easier. I'd have the lot of you shipped off to Rwanda if I had my way. PS I thought you might have been one of the old posters with a new name. Glad to see there are still a few of us originals left.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
I agree. It is far from clear if any of the numpties lining up can come close to Johnson in terms of electioneering. Bear in mind that for most people politics only goes on at election times and being a shameless liar spouting boostering optomism is actually quite a succesful election strategy.
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
Brexit still affects very many people. Most in a negative way. Some disasterously so. Because you're not one of them is lucky for you. But that doesn't stop it being an ongoing concern just because you've lost interest
LOL! Where are you in the five stages of grief process now Roger?
I'm five years in and it doesn't get any easier. I'd have the lot of you shipped off to Rwanda if I had my way
Seems a bit harsh on Rwanda. Havent they suffered enough?
A bright sunny morning here in Tallinn where apparently Russia has launched a massive DDOS attack against Estonian government websites. This is supposed to coincide with the annual NATO Locked Shields cyber defence exercise which was taking place here this week. Happy to say that there has been essentially no impact and even the presidential website, is functioning normally. My friends in the Defence League cyber defence unit are feeling quite pleased with themselves, since a) they have prevented any serious impact and b) everytime the Russians launch these attacks they provide the Estonians with a link map of Russian cyberspace, which will be helpful when NATO chooses to launch a counter attack.
Although the Russians are quite serious about their wishes to occupy all of Southern and Eastern Ukraine and link to Moldova, there is a sense here today that the new kit being supplied to Ukraine will actually stop this. Certainly if their cyber attacks are the best that they can do, then Estonia does not feel undue concern.
While JRR Tolkien is right that "It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him", there is a sense that this particular dragon has many holes in his scales: poor equipment, poor troops, poor tactics, poor leadership and so on. A coffee shop in the Old Town has provided the following advice to Putin: "why don´t we just skip ahead to the point where you shoot yourself in the bunker?".
Have a nice weekend everyone and congratulations to @Pulpstar
Putin and his aura may be insane, but it's scary. It's almost as if the two faces of Janus have decided to look at each other.
Happy St Jordi’s day! Glad to report that the weather currently seems much better than forecast (rain and cloud all day). I went out for my habitual morning wander, and was hassled at nearly every street corner by teenagers trying to sell me a rose. I eventually buckled when a very sweet lad of about fourteen gave me an impressive pitch in his best English. I am at least now being left alone by the rose hawks (who seem to be getting older as I get closer to town again).
I’m heading for Plaça Sant Jaume, as I definitely want to see some sardana dancing before I leave Barcelona this afternoon. I’ve stopped for my first beer just across from what looks like an impressive market hall (St Antoni market according to my map). Hopefully I can report back later with dancing 🕺🏼💃🏼 pictures!
There's a pretty impressive church not far from you. It's still being built but it's still worth a look. Not many people know about it.
Where’s that? I’ll try to fit it in my walking and drinking schedule.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
One of the wards in the Shetland Islands has only 2 nominations for 3 vacancies. There's going to have to be a by-election to fill the seat no-one wants at the moment.
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
Brexit still affects very many people. Most in a negative way. Some disasterously so. Because you're not one of them is lucky for you. But that doesn't stop it being an ongoing concern just because you've lost interest
LOL! Where are you in the five stages of grief process now Roger?
I'm five years in and it doesn't get any easier. I'd have the lot of you shipped off to Rwanda if I had my way. PS I thought you might have been one of the old posters with a new name. Glad to see there are still a few of us originals left.
I don't post much these days as I've got a lot going on but I'm still hanging in there for now lol...
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
They started it!
*tucked away for when Scottish independence comes back as a topic....*
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
Remove the PM and no one would know what the Tories stand for either. With Boris they do, like it or not.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
"The current debate within the FSB is whether to destabilise Moldova to tie down Ukrainian forces on the southern border, to counter growing pro-European sentiment in the country, and to show the West that support for Ukraine risks wider consequences, including in the Balkans.
After the ban of Russian military symbols, Ukrainian intelligence began to receive reports that Major General Dmitry Milyutin of the FSB Fifth Service was discussing the organisation of a protest movement in Moldova that would intentionally use the banned symbols en masse, encouraging the authorities to fine large numbers of poor protesters, and creating a basis for allegations that the government was clamping down on political expression and free speech.
These protests have since started to materialise. The intention is to build them towards a climax on 9 May, premised on the argument that President Sandu is preventing the country from celebrating its own role in the Great Patriotic War. If a process of protest and repression, provocation and response, can be established, the hope is to foment political crisis."
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Pretty sure that those who have been boring on pedantically about 'securing our borders' for decades are Brexiteers.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
Off topic, I'm now a Dad. Had the longest hour of my life when my better half was taken to theatre for emergency c section tho.
WooHoo! Congratulations!
Hope mother and child are okay after all of that. And life gets a little different from now on...
Well since he’ll be doing the overnight feeds he will get a lot more Firsts…
Some people have all the luck. A baby now; Firsts in the future; and sex last July.
Congratulations @Pulpstar! My first was also an emergency c section - really odd experience. For me, it was over before I had time to take in the gravity of the situation. Hope mum and baby are well. If I could offer one reflection from experience - it came as something of a shock to me how joyless the first few weeks were. I had expected it to be hard work, I hadn't expected it to be so unrewarding. The only positive feedback you get from newborns is them sleeping. Unlike mothers, fathers don't get oxytocin hormones to get them through it. I remember in the first fortnight I was counting down the days until she was 18. Happy to report that by about week 6 to 8 I was smitten, to the extent that I went on to have two more. My oldest is now 12 and 18 seems all too sadly close. So if it all seems horribly tough and unrewarding, that's because it is - but this phase will last weeks, not years.
All spot on
The fringe benefit of the emercency C is it gives you an automatic right to elective Cs for ever after.
Indeed! The NHS made a half-hearted attempt to persuade my wife to go for a natural birth second and third times around, but given child #2 was upside down and child #3 was back to front (this alone should have given us an early insight into their respective personalities) elective c section was an easy decision to make. We were gently advised not to go for #4, advice we were all too happy to take.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
The exit e-gates in Lisbon were working for British citizens already, complete with british flag on the sign, so I suppose this is about the entry ones. Of course, we let EU citizens (and americans, and many others) through our e-gates already.
The weather caught up with the forecast the second I stepped into Plaça Sant Jaumes; there was a rumble of thunder, the sky darkened and big raindrops started falling. And nobody was dancing..
I dashed to a little bar/restaurant that I knew was nearby (I wanted to eat here two nights ago but it was rammed) and I’m now enjoying my beer in this gorgeous little place, contemplating the menu while the rain hammers down outside.
I think I’ll give more Barcelona sightseeing a miss and just get to the station when (if?) the rain eases off.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
Brexit is a self inflicted calamity and Brexiteers are undoubtedly morons.
However, what was Cameron thinking in yielding to a referendum? Seriously, did he think the good people of Scunthorpe and other run-down sh*itholes could understand the nuances of international trade. For that alone, he goes down as the worst PM this country has ever had, marginally beating the disingenuous fat fornicator who currently occupies Number 10.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
No, the egate enters your info into the Schengen system. As does a normal manned gate, of course. The stamps are just an additional mechanism.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
Indeed so, so well done to the Portuguese, more interested in pragmatism than politics.
Same props to Netherlands and Belgium when it comes to good traffic flow, which over time will likely see freight move from Calais to Zebrugge and Rotterdam.
The weather caught up with the forecast the second I stepped into Plaça Sant Jaumes; there was a rumble of thunder, the sky darkened and big raindrops started falling. And nobody was dancing..
I dashed to a little bar/restaurant that I knew was nearby (I wanted to eat here two nights ago but it was rammed) and I’m now enjoying my beer in this gorgeous little place, contemplating the menu while the rain hammers down outside.
I think I’ll give more Barcelona sightseeing a miss and just get to the station when (if?) the rain eases off.
Before you go - and if you haven’t done it already - go up to the bar/restaurant on the top floor of Corte Ingles on Plaça de Catalunya. There’s some great views across the city from there.
Former President Trump will hold a rally in Ohio Saturday night in the hopes of boosting GOP Senate candidate JD Vance ahead of the May 3 primary and proving his continued hold on the party.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
No, the egate enters your info into the Schengen system. As does a normal manned gate, of course. The stamps are just an additional mechanism.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
oh dear, someone had a bad experience at border control once. It is no difference when entering other countries like USA. I remeber watching with envy the many US citizen gates lying entry as we all squeezed together in the one queue.
Third country you know. It's what you wanted. Suck it up. Stop complaining, you won.
Have a good day everyone. I am bowing out because Brexit has re-appeared.
I'm a remainer but I've moved on and find it incredible that people still want to talk about Brexit. Yes things need to be smoothed out but this is not what the vast majority of people right now care about.
We're struggling to make ends meet. Do you not get it?
They started it!
*tucked away for when Scottish independence comes back as a topic....*
One of the wards in the Shetland Islands has only 2 nominations for 3 vacancies. There's going to have to be a by-election to fill the seat no-one wants at the moment.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
Indeed so, so well done to the Portuguese, more interested in pragmatism than politics.
Same props to Netherlands and Belgium when it comes to good traffic flow, which over time will likely see freight move from Calais to Zebrugge and Rotterdam.
Calais has the road links. You're off the ship and straight on to the A16/E40. Into Belgium within 20 minutes and Germany in 90. Zeebrugge and Rotterdam are a pain the dick in comparison.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
No, the egate enters your info into the Schengen system. As does a normal manned gate, of course. The stamps are just an additional mechanism.
Ah, bugger it! Good to know, though.
You can probably still walk over the border from Gibraltar by just waving your passport. Soon, Gibraltar will become a quasi member of schengen, and that loophole will close. It was always a back door into Schengen for British Citizens, it just didn’t matter before.
A tourist ten years ago, flying London to Gib, overland to Madrid, and flying back to London would have been faced a slightly confused passport check on exit from Spain. Legally in schengen, but no record of it.
One of the wards in the Shetland Islands has only 2 nominations for 3 vacancies. There's going to have to be a by-election to fill the seat no-one wants at the moment.
Indeed. Good thing they started in the spring - will give them time to get used to the winter. (The long nights.)
If they're lucky they'll be back home before the proper Winter kicks in and just be left with fond memories of long days, blue skies and the endlessly changing sea. And seemingly a love of pickled onions.
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
Indeed so, so well done to the Portuguese, more interested in pragmatism than politics.
Same props to Netherlands and Belgium when it comes to good traffic flow, which over time will likely see freight move from Calais to Zebrugge and Rotterdam.
Calais has the road links. You're off the ship and straight on to the A16/E40. Into Belgium within 20 minutes and Germany in 90. Zeebrugge and Rotterdam are a pain the dick in comparison.
Oh indeed. But if the French want to be pedantic dicks, to the point that you have to wait 6 hours on the M20 to get to Dover, then the equation can change somewhat.
Got myself a ‘classic Sardo’, which seems to be a flatbread filled with veg and cheese, then toasted and drizzled with a dressing, herbs and seeds. Going down very nicely with a glass of house red!
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
Off topic, I'm now a Dad. Had the longest hour of my life when my better half was taken to theatre for emergency c section tho.
WooHoo! Congratulations!
Hope mother and child are okay after all of that. And life gets a little different from now on...
Well since he’ll be doing the overnight feeds he will get a lot more Firsts…
Some people have all the luck. A baby now; Firsts in the future; and sex last July.
Congratulations @Pulpstar! My first was also an emergency c section - really odd experience. For me, it was over before I had time to take in the gravity of the situation. Hope mum and baby are well. If I could offer one reflection from experience - it came as something of a shock to me how joyless the first few weeks were. I had expected it to be hard work, I hadn't expected it to be so unrewarding. The only positive feedback you get from newborns is them sleeping. Unlike mothers, fathers don't get oxytocin hormones to get them through it. I remember in the first fortnight I was counting down the days until she was 18. Happy to report that by about week 6 to 8 I was smitten, to the extent that I went on to have two more. My oldest is now 12 and 18 seems all too sadly close. So if it all seems horribly tough and unrewarding, that's because it is - but this phase will last weeks, not years.
Don't panic, they continue to be a safe home for any money you were planning to be frivilous with long after 18.
One of the wards in the Shetland Islands has only 2 nominations for 3 vacancies. There's going to have to be a by-election to fill the seat no-one wants at the moment.
Indeed. Good thing they started in the spring - will give them time to get used to the winter. (The long nights.)
If they're lucky they'll be back home before the proper Winter kicks in and just be left with fond memories of long nights, blue skies and the endlessly changing sea. And seemingly a love of pickled onions.
Long days surely - but your meaning is clear.
Friend of mine came from that part of the world and we had a midsummer holiday meeting up with her when she was v isitingh mum and dad in their croft.
Got myself a ‘classic Sarto’, which seems to be a flatbread filled with veg and cheese, then toasted and drizzled with a dressing, herbs and seeds. Going down very nicely with a glass of house red!
It's just as well that Mrs C has just called me for lunch. Reading stuff like this.
Former President Trump will hold a rally in Ohio Saturday night in the hopes of boosting GOP Senate candidate JD Vance ahead of the May 3 primary and proving his continued hold on the party.
The Hill
JD Vance once being a #nevertrump who said Trump was America's Hitler.
Apparently there is a Russian phrase that quantity has a quality all of its own. Easy to sniff at that but with all the talk about he fancy weaponry we are sending - starstreak, caeser etc - I just hope there is enough of them. I also hope that behind the scenes there has been some training going on in how to use them.
There's a very interesting essay in this week's Newstatesman by Richard Evans about parallels between Hitler's assault on Soviet Union and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. One point he makes is that the German generals were staggered to find that there was a seemingly never ending supply of soviet troops. They killed hundreds of thousands and still more would come. He wasn't arguing this would happen now necessarily, but a wider point about the depth and scale of Russia.
Putin could grind this on for years as he cares nothing for the loss of young men's lives. Whether his economy can stand it is a moot question.
There was a Twitter thread on this a while back which pointed out that the Soviet Union’s demography in WWII was very different to today’s Russia. Russia today doesn’t have the same endless supply of young men to throw into battle. It has an ageing population and low birth rates.
Former President Trump will hold a rally in Ohio Saturday night in the hopes of boosting GOP Senate candidate JD Vance ahead of the May 3 primary and proving his continued hold on the party.
The Hill
Vance has shot into a primary polling lead since the endorsement, and is benefiting from massive funds from Trump's PAC. Ironically he was previously anti-Trump and his opponents were using that against him. On reflection, he's evidently decided that Trump is a good egg after all (LOL).
Got myself a ‘classic Sardo’, which seems to be a flatbread filled with veg and cheese, then toasted and drizzled with a dressing, herbs and seeds. Going down very nicely with a glass of house red!
Just needs some ham and you'd have the food of the Gods.....
Former President Trump will hold a rally in Ohio Saturday night in the hopes of boosting GOP Senate candidate JD Vance ahead of the May 3 primary and proving his continued hold on the party.
The Hill
JD Vance once being a #nevertrump who said Trump was America's Hitler.
Just another example of the poison that Trump has injected into the GOP. It is a cult. And it will destroy America as a democracy in 2024.
Got myself a ‘classic Sardo’, which seems to be a flatbread filled with veg and cheese, then toasted and drizzled with a dressing, herbs and seeds. Going down very nicely with a glass of house red!
Just needs some ham and you'd have the food of the Gods.....
Reminds me of my Dad asking for some ham on the side in a vegetarian cafe. He really didn't get the concept...
Apparently there is a Russian phrase that quantity has a quality all of its own. Easy to sniff at that but with all the talk about he fancy weaponry we are sending - starstreak, caeser etc - I just hope there is enough of them. I also hope that behind the scenes there has been some training going on in how to use them.
There's a very interesting essay in this week's Newstatesman by Richard Evans about parallels between Hitler's assault on Soviet Union and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. One point he makes is that the German generals were staggered to find that there was a seemingly never ending supply of soviet troops. They killed hundreds of thousands and still more would come. He wasn't arguing this would happen now necessarily, but a wider point about the depth and scale of Russia.
Putin could grind this on for years as he cares nothing for the loss of young men's lives. Whether his economy can stand it is a moot question.
There was a Twitter thread on this a while back which pointed out that the Soviet Union’s demography in WWII was very different to today’s Russia. Russia today doesn’t have the same endless supply of young men to throw into battle. It has an ageing population and low birth rates.
Plus the the pockets of population growth and cannon fodder are in ethnic minority regions thereby stocking up separatism as casualties mount.
Marine Le Pen’s far-right French party is paying nearly $13 million to a contractor that is currently under U.S. sanctions, part of a settlement involving a previous loan from a Russian bank
No matter how much the EU bureaucracy would love to see excessive border pedantry imposed on the British, to the countries popular with British tourists, it’s in their own interest to be accommodating to the temporary visitors bringing money to their country.
Who are the border pedants?
Macron and the EU Commission. The people who think it’s a brilliant idea to make a plane full of British tourists wait for one “Non-EU” passport control line, while half a dozen “EU Only” lines remain empty, just to teach the Brexiteers a lesson.
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
As the UK is now a third country, each EU member state makes its own decisions on how to treat UK visitors at its borders. It has nothing to do with the Commission. Same with qualifying for residency.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
No, the egate enters your info into the Schengen system. As does a normal manned gate, of course. The stamps are just an additional mechanism.
Ah, bugger it! Good to know, though.
You can probably still walk over the border from Gibraltar by just waving your passport. Soon, Gibraltar will become a quasi member of schengen, and that loophole will close. It was always a back door into Schengen for British Citizens, it just didn’t matter before.
A tourist ten years ago, flying London to Gib, overland to Madrid, and flying back to London would have been faced a slightly confused passport check on exit from Spain. Legally in schengen, but no record of it.
I had my passport stamped on the way from La Linea to Gib. Didn't exit the same way.
I didn't get a stamp in or out of Albania recently, which was disappointing. Either they are relaxed about Brits overstaying their 3 months, or my entry and exit were recorded electronically (which would surprise me for Albania, a country that has barely discovered the Internet it seems).
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
You are wrong when you accuse critics of wanting to abandon Brexit, as a large proportion of the country have accepted Brexit but want it to work better for both the UK and EU's mutual benefit, especially following the war in Ukraine
It is not all or nothing
Mexicanpete was arguing for the Tories abandoning Brexit
No I wasn't.
I was arguing that the Tories need to abandon wet-dream Brexit and look to something that works in the UK's best economic interests, and as far as it can placates as many Brexiteers who want to be placated.
David Frost Brexit is a fantasy. He now knows this but doesn't feel confident to tell the Johnsonians yet.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I think this is why the Tories are needing to be dragged kicking and screaming to ditch Boris: Brexit has turned into a burdensome let-down but Boris might still give the campaign some of the old showbiz magic; Brexit plus dull leader equals political curtains.
Apparently there is a Russian phrase that quantity has a quality all of its own. Easy to sniff at that but with all the talk about he fancy weaponry we are sending - starstreak, caeser etc - I just hope there is enough of them. I also hope that behind the scenes there has been some training going on in how to use them.
There's a very interesting essay in this week's Newstatesman by Richard Evans about parallels between Hitler's assault on Soviet Union and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. One point he makes is that the German generals were staggered to find that there was a seemingly never ending supply of soviet troops. They killed hundreds of thousands and still more would come. He wasn't arguing this would happen now necessarily, but a wider point about the depth and scale of Russia.
Putin could grind this on for years as he cares nothing for the loss of young men's lives. Whether his economy can stand it is a moot question.
There was a Twitter thread on this a while back which pointed out that the Soviet Union’s demography in WWII was very different to today’s Russia. Russia today doesn’t have the same endless supply of young men to throw into battle. It has an ageing population and low birth rates.
Plus the the pockets of population growth and cannon fodder are in ethnic minority regions thereby stocking up separatism as casualties mount.
Indeed. It might take a few months more, but eventually there will be 20,000 wives and mothers, who realise that husbands and sons are not returning from Ukraine. Plus many tens of thousands more, who will return with life-changing injuries and stories to tell.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
You are wrong when you accuse critics of wanting to abandon Brexit, as a large proportion of the country have accepted Brexit but want it to work better for both the UK and EU's mutual benefit, especially following the war in Ukraine
It is not all or nothing
Mexicanpete was arguing for the Tories abandoning Brexit
No I wasn't.
I was arguing that the Tories need to abandon wet-dream Brexit and look to something that works in the UK's best economic interests, and as far as it can placates as many Brexiteers who want to be placated.
David Frost Brexit is a fantasy. He now knows this but doesn't feel confident to tell the Johnsonians yet.
Quite right! The Tories need to wake up to this pronto or Sir Keir will do it and claim all the political kudos. The Tories will then be left like the old Corbynites: irrelevant and pining for the glories of an era that never happened.
Former President Trump will hold a rally in Ohio Saturday night in the hopes of boosting GOP Senate candidate JD Vance ahead of the May 3 primary and proving his continued hold on the party.
The Hill
JD Vance once being a #nevertrump who said Trump was America's Hitler.
Just another example of the poison that Trump has injected into the GOP. It is a cult. And it will destroy America as a democracy in 2024.
2 years exactly to go until Pennsylvania, Delaware, Maryland and Rhode Island have their primaries, with only 10 states (mostly tiddlers) still to decide.
2 years today, Trump may well be the Republican candidate for the Presidency.
Best hope Putinism's hold over Russia is no longer a thing by the start of 2025.....
The weather caught up with the forecast the second I stepped into Plaça Sant Jaumes; there was a rumble of thunder, the sky darkened and big raindrops started falling. And nobody was dancing..
I dashed to a little bar/restaurant that I knew was nearby (I wanted to eat here two nights ago but it was rammed) and I’m now enjoying my beer in this gorgeous little place, contemplating the menu while the rain hammers down outside.
I think I’ll give more Barcelona sightseeing a miss and just get to the station when (if?) the rain eases off.
Have you fitted in your mugging? No experience of Barcelona is complete without that! It would not be right to leave without having your wallet pickpocketed at the very least.
As long as the queue filling their bankbooks are ok all is fine. Try finding a pleb who cannot just lift the phone to downing street what they think. I bet your charity chum is a Tory in the mould of Boris and far and happy on a huge salary, worried in case the gravy train hits the buffers
He's privately pretty much as left-wing as I am. But his particular issue is getting proper attention so he - somewhat reluctantly - concedes that the work that his charity does may be disrupted by a change. I don't think his personal position would be affected either way - he's been doing it for many years, pre-Johnson.
My post was to illustrate the nuance of everyday Parliamentary life. Not everything goes wrong at once, and there are always reasons to wait a month while issue X is sorted, then another month for issue Y, and so on. Actually changing leader is a big deal - it may happen, but if Johnson manages a few quiet weeks after the local elections (e.g. no new fines and Sue Gray writing in formal civil service terms that don't lend themselves to headlines) he may well see it through.
When you have a criminal running the country he should go immediately Nick, regardless of any impact on the odd charity. As you say they have been doing same stuff for many years, toppling Johnson and cleaning up government would nonchalance that. Using that as an excuse just makes you an accomplice.
Sure - I've not suddenly turned into a Tory. My point was that the inaction of Tory MPs is baffling when we only read the headline stories, but there are plenty of distractions and small positive things that they can use to persuade themselves to keep him on. If they wish.
From the Labour viewpoint, I think that we'd prefer that he's either replaced quickly or kept all the way to the election. I'm wary of the "Exciting new leader! Give us a chance!" trick if they switched leaders a few months before an election.
Apparently there is a Russian phrase that quantity has a quality all of its own. Easy to sniff at that but with all the talk about he fancy weaponry we are sending - starstreak, caeser etc - I just hope there is enough of them. I also hope that behind the scenes there has been some training going on in how to use them.
There's a very interesting essay in this week's Newstatesman by Richard Evans about parallels between Hitler's assault on Soviet Union and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. One point he makes is that the German generals were staggered to find that there was a seemingly never ending supply of soviet troops. They killed hundreds of thousands and still more would come. He wasn't arguing this would happen now necessarily, but a wider point about the depth and scale of Russia.
Putin could grind this on for years as he cares nothing for the loss of young men's lives. Whether his economy can stand it is a moot question.
There was a Twitter thread on this a while back which pointed out that the Soviet Union’s demography in WWII was very different to today’s Russia. Russia today doesn’t have the same endless supply of young men to throw into battle. It has an ageing population and low birth rates.
Plus the the pockets of population growth and cannon fodder are in ethnic minority regions thereby stocking up separatism as casualties mount.
People forget that Russia is an empire. Our empire was overseas, so we don’t see contiguous countries like Russia and China as empires, but they are in many ways. 1917-21 saw the Russian empire fragment, but the Soviet Union built it up again. The end of the USSR saw the SSRs, including Ukraine of course, gain independence, but the Russian Federation is still composed of many regions that might aspire to independence. It is perhaps not imminently likely, but I think far from impossible, that Russia will completely break apart the way Yugoslavia did.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I think this is why the Tories are needing to be dragged kicking and screaming to ditch Boris: Brexit has turned into a burdensome let-down but Boris might still give the campaign some of the old showbiz magic; Brexit plus dull leader equals political curtains.
Yes, I struggle to see large numbers of floating voters opting for 5 more years of Con govt under Hunt over a change with Lab and Starmer. With my Lab hat on, the Cons trading out of Johnson doesn't worry me unduly.
Telegraphing disturbing intentions. The #Russian Defense Ministry said that the #UnitedStates are preparing a provocation aimed at accusing the Russian military of using chemical, biological or tactical nuclear weapons. https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1517787289983803393
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I probably am Kinabalu although projecting one’s opinions onto the rest of the population is a specialty of this site. However, you don’t have to believe me, you just have to look at what has happened when it’s come to polling. Labour is not polling where it should be given the constant negative news about the Government plus the cost of living issues. And that’s even before we get to when people actually cast votes - Labour’s record in council and parliamentary by-elections has been p1ss poor for a party that is supposedly now seen as. credible alternative (let’s see what Wakefield does). It’s clear when it comes to Labour, the mood of the population when it comes to actions is essentially apathetic with some grudging belief voting Labour sends a signal to BJ.
I know the gradations are important but to me this whole war, being one of naked aggression and totally unprovoked, is a crime. I consider every single Ukrainian death caused by it to be murder. That the killers are in uniform makes no difference to this. The only difference it makes is on culpability. Putin, yes, a slam dunk, but what about the chain of command right down to those actually doing the killing? "Only following orders" often gets mocked as a phrase and a concept but there's some validity to it. God knows what I'd do. Can't even imagine the scenario. It's outside my frame of reference. "OFO" can't be a blanket mitigation, though, can it?
I know the gradations are important but to me this whole war, being one of naked aggression and totally unprovoked, is a crime. I consider every single Ukrainian death caused by it to be murder. That the killers are in uniform makes no difference to this. The only difference it makes is on culpability. Putin, yes, a slam dunk, but what about the chain of command right down to those actually doing the killing? "Only following orders" often gets mocked as a phrase and a concept but there's some validity to it. God knows what I'd do. Can't even imagine the scenario. It's outside my frame of reference. "OFO" can't be a blanket mitigation, though, can it?
Well if it is there were some serious miscarriages of justice at Nuremberg. I think the consensus is that it is not.
The reality is, however, that all these threats of war crimes tribunals and the like are so much hot air. Powerful countries are not subject to such laws, ask GWB and Tony Blair.
One of the wards in the Shetland Islands has only 2 nominations for 3 vacancies. There's going to have to be a by-election to fill the seat no-one wants at the moment.
Indeed. Good thing they started in the spring - will give them time to get used to the winter. (The long nights.)
If they're lucky they'll be back home before the proper Winter kicks in and just be left with fond memories of long nights, blue skies and the endlessly changing sea. And seemingly a love of pickled onions.
Long days surely - but your meaning is clear.
Friend of mine came from that part of the world and we had a midsummer holiday meeting up with her when she was v isitingh mum and dad in their croft.
On which subject, I mentioned here a month or so back that a friend of mine had offered a house for refugees and a group of friends had been getting it set up - after a frustrating wait for visas I'm happy to report that 6 of 7 family members arrived on Thursday - all pleased to be here, especially the four year old girl who after 6 weeks of transience now had her own space and, thanks to countless acts of small generosity across suburban Stockport, toys to play with again. Annoyingly, the father of the family's visa has still not arrived: he is currently making his way across Europe in anticipation of one being in place by the time he reaches the English Channel tomorrow.
One of the wards in the Shetland Islands has only 2 nominations for 3 vacancies. There's going to have to be a by-election to fill the seat no-one wants at the moment.
Indeed. Good thing they started in the spring - will give them time to get used to the winter. (The long nights.)
If they're lucky they'll be back home before the proper Winter kicks in and just be left with fond memories of long nights, blue skies and the endlessly changing sea. And seemingly a love of pickled onions.
Long days surely - but your meaning is clear.
Friend of mine came from that part of the world and we had a midsummer holiday meeting up with her when she was v isitingh mum and dad in their croft.
On which subject, I mentioned here a month or so back that a friend of mine had offered a house for refugees and a group of friends had been getting it set up - after a frustrating wait for visas I'm happy to report that 6 of 7 family members arrived on Thursday - all pleased to be here, especially the four year old girl who after 6 weeks of transience now had her own space and, thanks to countless acts of small generosity across suburban Stockport, toys to play with again. Annoyingly, the father of the family's visa has still not arrived: he is currently making his way across Europe in anticipation of one being in place by the time he reaches the English Channel tomorrow.
One curiosity that came to my attention this week is that the success rate for asylum claims in this country at first instance has simply rocketed over the last few years. It used to be that barely 10% were granted asylum at first instance, even although many more were successful on appeal. It is now over 70%, which must be having a beneficial effect on the backlog of appeals, judicial reviews etc.
None of this has turned the Home Office into an organisation that likes to say yes in a hurry though and even the political will of the government has not been able to change that in respect of the Ukrainians.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I probably am Kinabalu although projecting one’s opinions onto the rest of the population is a specialty of this site. However, you don’t have to believe me, you just have to look at what has happened when it’s come to polling. Labour is not polling where it should be given the constant negative news about the Government plus the cost of living issues. And that’s even before we get to when people actually cast votes - Labour’s record in council and parliamentary by-elections has been p1ss poor for a party that is supposedly now seen as. credible alternative (let’s see what Wakefield does). It’s clear when it comes to Labour, the mood of the population when it comes to actions is essentially apathetic with some grudging belief voting Labour sends a signal to BJ.
Let's see what the Locals and Wakefield tell us. In any case I'm not saying SKS has "sealed the deal" - he hasn't. But he is, gradually, and I sense rather relentlessly, firming up the impressionistic (non policy) side of the offer, being a safe and competent alternative PM, good brain, decent values, with a capable and engaging shadow front bench team ready for government after 14 years of Tory rule. This was the hard bit after the GE19 disaster under Corbyn. Once that impression is in place it's a piece of cake to tag on some policies which meet the twin criteria of "Tories wouldn't do it" and poll well amongst floating voters.
At least some of the pretence is being dropped, even calling it occupied territory
BBC A veteran pro-Kremlin commentator says Russia's goal in Ukraine is "the gradual dismantling and phased reformatting of this territory".
The Russian analyst, Pyotr Akopov, says "everyone understands now that the military operation will go on a long time".
His commentary, published by state-run RIA Novosti news, is titled "Russia is changing tactics, but not strategy, in Ukraine".
It echoes a speech on Friday by a top Russian general, Rustam Minnekayev, envisaging Russian forces taking control of Ukraine’s entire coastline, from Donbas in the east to Moldova in the west.
Russia has troops in Transnistria, a breakaway pro-Moscow territory in Moldova.
"Withdrawal of our troops from any of the occupied territories is out of the question," Akopov says.
"If we take the goal of the second phase to be establishing control over the south of Ukraine, then we have to realise that a third phase is inevitable too – control over all of Novorossiya," Akopov says.
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I think this is why the Tories are needing to be dragged kicking and screaming to ditch Boris: Brexit has turned into a burdensome let-down but Boris might still give the campaign some of the old showbiz magic; Brexit plus dull leader equals political curtains.
Yes, I struggle to see large numbers of floating voters opting for 5 more years of Con govt under Hunt over a change with Lab and Starmer. With my Lab hat on, the Cons trading out of Johnson doesn't worry me unduly.
Indeed, Johnson is still the greatest Conservative vote winner since Thatcher.
On the doors in Epping this morning for the local elections it is worse than last year certainly but still much better than it was in Spring 2019 when we had failed to deliver Brexit.
London I think will be bad in a fortnight but the rest of the country a bit better than expected
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I think this is why the Tories are needing to be dragged kicking and screaming to ditch Boris: Brexit has turned into a burdensome let-down but Boris might still give the campaign some of the old showbiz magic; Brexit plus dull leader equals political curtains.
Yes, I struggle to see large numbers of floating voters opting for 5 more years of Con govt under Hunt over a change with Lab and Starmer. With my Lab hat on, the Cons trading out of Johnson doesn't worry me unduly.
Indeed, Johnson is still the greatest Conservative vote winner since Thatcher.
On the doors in Epping this morning for the local elections it is worse than last year certainly but still much better than it was in Spring 2019 when we had failed to deliver Brexit.
London I think will be bad in a fortnight but the rest of the country a bit better than expected
"The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election."
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
Quite unusually, I agreed with most of your post until I got to the second half of the last paragraph. I don’t think the country is convinced that there is a “safe and competent Labour alternative”. Hardly anyone knows what SKS and Labour stands for apart from a general sense he’s trying to pull the wool over everyone’s eyes by claiming he’d accept Brexit and is a fan of the monarchy and the Union Jack. Labour could be doing more to seal the deal. Instead, it is relying on Partygate continuing to the next GE.
I think you're projecting, Ed. The general perception of SKS isn't that he's a fake, that's your view of him. The perception he needs to combat - but not overly - is he lacks pizazz. I say not overly because safe and boring (so long as competence is in the mix) is likely to play well. If Johnson stays it'll play well as a contrast, and against a Hunt, or even *the* Hunt, it'll be fine since you'll have 2 dullish competents but only one of them, Starmer, will represent a change of party in government after 14 years of the Cons. I actually think Starmer beats either (or any Tory alternative) and right now I have him as a shade of odds on favourite to emerge from GE24 as PM.
I think this is why the Tories are needing to be dragged kicking and screaming to ditch Boris: Brexit has turned into a burdensome let-down but Boris might still give the campaign some of the old showbiz magic; Brexit plus dull leader equals political curtains.
Yes, I struggle to see large numbers of floating voters opting for 5 more years of Con govt under Hunt over a change with Lab and Starmer. With my Lab hat on, the Cons trading out of Johnson doesn't worry me unduly.
Indeed, Johnson is still the greatest Conservative vote winner since Thatcher.
On the doors in Epping this morning for the local elections it is worse than last year certainly but still much better than it was in Spring 2019 when we had failed to deliver Brexit.
London I think will be bad in a fortnight but the rest of the country a bit better than expected
Wandsworth toppling? Westminster?
I expect Wandsworth and Barnet will go on the London Opinium local elections poll yesterday. However Westminster should stay Tory
I know the gradations are important but to me this whole war, being one of naked aggression and totally unprovoked, is a crime. I consider every single Ukrainian death caused by it to be murder. That the killers are in uniform makes no difference to this. The only difference it makes is on culpability. Putin, yes, a slam dunk, but what about the chain of command right down to those actually doing the killing? "Only following orders" often gets mocked as a phrase and a concept but there's some validity to it. God knows what I'd do. Can't even imagine the scenario. It's outside my frame of reference. "OFO" can't be a blanket mitigation, though, can it?
Well if it is there were some serious miscarriages of justice at Nuremberg. I think the consensus is that it is not.
The reality is, however, that all these threats of war crimes tribunals and the like are so much hot air. Powerful countries are not subject to such laws, ask GWB and Tony Blair.
Yep, Iraq was also a war of naked unprovoked aggression. I'd say this one is of a purer evil but to consider it of the same ilk isn't a category error.
To fright the souls of fearful adversaries, He capers nimbly in a lady’s chamber To the lascivious pleasing of a lute. But I, that am not shaped for sportive tricks, Nor made to court an amorous looking-glass; I, that am rudely stamp’d, and want love’s majesty To strut before a wanton ambling nymph;
I even worked some of that in to a PB thread last year.
Comments
Ten years or ten days. Either is possible.
Although the Russians are quite serious about their wishes to occupy all of Southern and Eastern Ukraine and link to Moldova, there is a sense here today that the new kit being supplied to Ukraine will actually stop this. Certainly if their cyber attacks are the best that they can do, then Estonia does not feel undue concern.
While JRR Tolkien is right that "It does not do to leave a live dragon out of your calculations, if you live near him", there is a sense that this particular dragon has many holes in his scales: poor equipment, poor troops, poor tactics, poor leadership and so on. A coffee shop in the Old Town has provided the following advice to Putin: "why don´t we just skip ahead to the point where you shoot yourself in the bunker?".
Have a nice weekend everyone and congratulations to @Pulpstar
“ The big loser if the Tories do change leader would be Starmer. Anyone other than Johnson would be harder to beat in a general election. “. Oh? Surely Starmer v Truss can only produce one winner, and a big winner at that?
“ my sense is that we are closer to seeing such a move now than at any time during the Johnson leadership.” My own opinion we were closer to a vonc with Partygate at height end of January and Sunak as shoe in, on basis they could have won one then, they won’t call it after the locals because they don’t have the numbers to win it now, the war has firmed up Boris support in pcp the party and country.
It is mad, it must put off 50% of potential readership
Describing the job of culture secretary, she said: “We’re responsible for making sure you have superfast broadband in your home, that means you can downstream your movies.”
...
It’s not clear why Dr Evans uploaded the video despite the errors."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2022/04/22/nadine-dorries-mocked-downstreaming-movies-tennis-pitches-comments/
Deadpan.
I’m heading for Plaça Sant Jaume, as I definitely want to see some sardana dancing before I leave Barcelona this afternoon. I’ve stopped for my first beer just across from what looks like an impressive market hall (St Antoni market according to my map). Hopefully I can report back later with dancing 🕺🏼💃🏼 pictures!
Maybe but I'm not so sure. The big win in 2019 was built on a fair number of people voting (in their own minds) not Tory but for Boris Johnson. It's my view that because we on here (mostly) see clearly that he's utterly unfit for any high office, let alone PM, it causes us to underestimate the extent of his positive appeal in places. The election win was not all down to Brexit and Corbyn. Johnson pulled in votes with his persona and campaigning flair. And they happened to be in the sort of seats that decide FPTP elections.
Some of these people will have seen the light but plenty won't have. Esp those with an attachment to Brexit. If I were a committed Leaver, a person for whom getting out of the EU meant a lot, was important for my emotional health, a person driven nuts by the antics of the Remainer parliament during Mrs May's tenure, I'd still feel very warm towards Johnson - or "Boris" as he'd be to me with the "good old" silent but there - for driving it through. I'd probably also think he's been ok on most other things if I take an interest in such.
Go with Hunt or a Hunt type, and you lose me. In return you get back some right of centre people for whom Johnson is intolerable. You get Nigel Foremain in other words. But you don't get the generic centre ground moderate or apolitical floating voter. You don't get them. Why would they vote for 5 more years of Tory government when there's a safe and competent looking Labour alternative on the ballot? Answer, they won't. Not in large numbers. So, net net, does ditching Boris Johnson increase the Con vote and improve their chances at GE24? To finish as I started, maybe but I'm not so sure.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-61174366
This is the kind of decision that is very welcome and shows how common sense can make a difference
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/04/22/portugal-treat-british-travellers-eu-citizens-borders-cut-airport/
With Boris they do, like it or not.
"The current debate within the FSB is whether to destabilise Moldova to tie down Ukrainian forces on the southern border, to counter growing pro-European sentiment in the country, and to show the West that support for Ukraine risks wider consequences, including in the Balkans.
After the ban of Russian military symbols, Ukrainian intelligence began to receive reports that Major General Dmitry Milyutin of the FSB Fifth Service was discussing the organisation of a protest movement in Moldova that would intentionally use the banned symbols en masse, encouraging the authorities to fine large numbers of poor protesters, and creating a basis for allegations that the government was clamping down on political expression and free speech.
These protests have since started to materialise. The intention is to build them towards a climax on 9 May, premised on the argument that President Sandu is preventing the country from celebrating its own role in the Great Patriotic War. If a process of protest and repression, provocation and response, can be established, the hope is to foment political crisis."
Rusi report published yesterday:
https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/special-resources/operation-z-death-throes-imperial-delusion
The actual tourist destinations, of course, want to make the experience for their visitors as positive as possible.
We were gently advised not to go for #4, advice we were all too happy to take.
I dashed to a little bar/restaurant that I knew was nearby (I wanted to eat here two nights ago but it was rammed) and I’m now enjoying my beer in this gorgeous little place, contemplating the menu while the rain hammers down outside.
I think I’ll give more Barcelona sightseeing a miss and just get to the station when (if?) the rain eases off.
Sounds like Portugal may now be a good point of entry if you want to be inside the EU for longer than three months - though you’ll have to remember to leave from there as well.
However, what was Cameron thinking in yielding to a referendum? Seriously, did he think the good people of Scunthorpe and other run-down sh*itholes could understand the nuances of international trade. For that alone, he goes down as the worst PM this country has ever had, marginally beating the disingenuous fat fornicator who currently occupies Number 10.
#ToriesOut
Same props to Netherlands and Belgium when it comes to good traffic flow, which over time will likely see freight move from Calais to Zebrugge and Rotterdam.
The Hill
Third country you know. It's what you wanted. Suck it up. Stop complaining, you won.
A tourist ten years ago, flying London to Gib, overland to Madrid, and flying back to London would have been faced a slightly confused passport check on exit from Spain. Legally in schengen, but no record of it.
Friend of mine came from that part of the world and we had a midsummer holiday meeting up with her when she was v isitingh mum and dad in their croft.
I didn't get a stamp in or out of Albania recently, which was disappointing. Either they are relaxed about Brits overstaying their 3 months, or my entry and exit were recorded electronically (which would surprise me for Albania, a country that has barely discovered the Internet it seems).
I was arguing that the Tories need to abandon wet-dream Brexit and look to something that works in the UK's best economic interests, and as far as it can placates as many Brexiteers who want to be placated.
David Frost Brexit is a fantasy. He now knows this but doesn't feel confident to tell the Johnsonians yet.
https://mobile.twitter.com/anneapplebaum/status/1517833610899955715
2 years today, Trump may well be the Republican candidate for the Presidency.
Best hope Putinism's hold over Russia is no longer a thing by the start of 2025.....
https://mobile.twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1517830439075028992
From the Labour viewpoint, I think that we'd prefer that he's either replaced quickly or kept all the way to the election. I'm wary of the "Exciting new leader! Give us a chance!" trick if they switched leaders a few months before an election.
Some reports are a bit confusing.
To be clear, there are two committees: the committee on standards and the committee of Privileges. I chair both.
I am only recusing myself from consideration of the matter of the PM which has been referred to the committee of Privileges.
https://mobile.twitter.com/RhonddaBryant/status/1517798212203171847
The #Russian Defense Ministry said that the #UnitedStates are preparing a provocation aimed at accusing the Russian military of using chemical, biological or tactical nuclear weapons.
https://mobile.twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/1517787289983803393
The hashtag most used by Labour MPs in the last 24 hours was: #Shakespeare4Johnson
https://mobile.twitter.com/UKMPtweets/status/1322828081283956736
Which quote does PB think best suited to our PM ?
So are they all, all honourable men.
https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1517844728913567746
https://mobile.twitter.com/TpyxaNews/status/1517837781036421126
The reality is, however, that all these threats of war crimes tribunals and the like are so much hot air. Powerful countries are not subject to such laws, ask GWB and Tony Blair.
https://twitter.com/Phylan/status/1517507755162148864?cxt=HHwWgIC5pezQoo8qAAAA
None of this has turned the Home Office into an organisation that likes to say yes in a hurry though and even the political will of the government has not been able to change that in respect of the Ukrainians.
He flies into an uncontrollable rage when anybody mentions Ukraine.
Oops, sorry Vlad, I just said Ukraine.
Again.
BBC
A veteran pro-Kremlin commentator says Russia's goal in Ukraine is "the gradual dismantling and phased reformatting of this territory".
The Russian analyst, Pyotr Akopov, says "everyone understands now that the military operation will go on a long time".
His commentary, published by state-run RIA Novosti news, is titled "Russia is changing tactics, but not strategy, in Ukraine".
It echoes a speech on Friday by a top Russian general, Rustam Minnekayev, envisaging Russian forces taking control of Ukraine’s entire coastline, from Donbas in the east to Moldova in the west.
Russia has troops in Transnistria, a breakaway pro-Moscow territory in Moldova.
"Withdrawal of our troops from any of the occupied territories is out of the question," Akopov says.
"If we take the goal of the second phase to be establishing control over the south of Ukraine, then we have to realise that a third phase is inevitable too – control over all of Novorossiya," Akopov says.
On the doors in Epping this morning for the local elections it is worse than last year certainly but still much better than it was in Spring 2019 when we had failed to deliver Brexit.
London I think will be bad in a fortnight but the rest of the country a bit better than expected
https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=blackadder+the+scottish+play&view=detail&mid=B5AE07C940CFC3DD04D2B5AE07C940CFC3DD04D2&FORM=VIRE
To fright the souls of fearful adversaries,
He capers nimbly in a lady’s chamber
To the lascivious pleasing of a lute.
But I, that am not shaped for sportive tricks,
Nor made to court an amorous looking-glass;
I, that am rudely stamp’d, and want love’s majesty
To strut before a wanton ambling nymph;
I even worked some of that in to a PB thread last year.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/09/06/to-fright-the-souls-of-fearful-adversaries-he-capers-nimbly-in-a-ladys-chamber-to-the-lascivious-pleasing-of-a-lute/