Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
Why not? Julius was famous for enjoying a Big Bang...
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
And it's remarkable when you consider that after defenestrating the by then deeply unpopular Margaret Thatcher at the end of 1990, they went on to win the General Election 18 months later under John Major. In that 1992 election the Conservatives polled more votes than at any time in British electoral history before or since.
So they could do it. And they could still pull off a win.
Why don't they? Are they held under some spell? Mesmerised by Boris? Terrified of his sting? In thrall to the fatheaded journalists at the Mail and Express?
If this were industry Boris would have been kicked out months ago. Maybe that's the source of the problem: lots of these MPs would never cut it in the real world of business.
Really? You might want to look at the people who reach the top in business: Dido Harding, for instance. Paula Vennells at the Post Office. All those who brought ruin to their banks etc. Incompetents reaching the top and staying there has been just as much a feature of the private sector as it has of politics.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
You are probably right, but, I suggest, somewhat less than 50/50. These thoughts must be in people's minds. 1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go. 2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election 3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders 4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
Hi OKC, I think you misunderstand. There is a 'motion of no confidence' in the House of Commons, which has to be tabled by the Leader of the Opposition, and a 'vote of no confidence' which the Tories hold among themselves. If the latter is held and he loses, he is automatically removed as leader of the party. He cannot therefore go to the Queen and ask for a dissolution as it would not help him. In any case, the 1922 committee could decide to remove him immediately and install an acting leader if they wished or if he decided to do crazy stuff.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
You're overlooking a possibility here that is so outlandish it must surely have occurred to the PM. In the event of losing a VOC he just digs in his heels and refuses to resign. The Tory party could proceed with an election if they want but Johnson is PM until he isn't, HMQ has no power to dismiss him and the Conservative Party has no constitutional significance. In such a situation Starmer could move a motion of no confidence in HoC but it would be against HMG, not against Johnson personally, and it remains to be seen how the PCP would respond. Or Starmer could resist the temptation and leave the Tories swinging on the gibbet.
Your possibility falls, because under the rules he doesn't resign if he loses a VONC, he is automatically removed. If he plays ball, he gets to stay PM until a successor is elected. If not, he can just be expelled from the party for a breach of rules and that is that as far his government is concerned.
He may be automatically removed as Tory leader but he can chose to remain as PM until the HoC passes Starmer's motion of no-confidence at which point he is constitutionally obliged to meet HMQ and recommend a successor. Obviously a lot of toys will have been thrown out of the pram by this stage, but it's wrong to suggest that Johnson automatically ceases to be PM just because of a vote by the PCP.
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
I think that the Americans have sent some too. A twitter thread on it here:
It's the sycophantic way some people can't see the fault in his stars that ignites the fury in me, even more than the clot himself: the Nadine Dorries wonderstruck look, like a female bird of paradise entranced by a male bird's dance. I expect it is partly because he has a famously huge penis.
Once you see through the magician's sleight of hand, you realise that there's nothing beneath. A song and dance showman who steps forward night after night to trip the light fantastic.
And with that dizzying mixture of metaphors I bid you all g'day.
"ignites the fury in me"
I think you may need to calm down a little.
I could pose it the other way as well: far too many people are utterly unwilling to see anything good about him; and anything the government gets right is not down to him in any way. And anyone pointing out that he has got something right become seen as fans of his, however much they criticise other aspects.
Johnson is deeply flawed, but he is not the devil incarnate that some like to make him out to be.
Reserve your fury for the people who really deserve it - like people not wearing masks in shops.
Oh look, a false dichotomy. Nobody ever said he was "the devil incarnate" but "deeply flawed" doesn't really cut it either. The metaphor is presumably from gemstones and meant to suggest that he would be of great value but for one fault. In fact his one merit is that he is quite funny. He isn't particularly clever or well educated, and he lies, promotes himself, puts his own interests ahead of anyone else's and is the sort of guy who tells a boozy dinner that he has buyer's remorse over his wife. He is indeed not the anti Messiah but he is a nasty sack of shit. Not a flawed gem.
Hunt may be likely to get into the final 2 with MPs again but he is extremely unlikely to win the Conservative members vote given he only got 33% with them last time. Wallace, who tops the latest Conhome Cabinet net satisfaction ratings is a far more likely successor.
I would also not be quite so dismissive of Boris, he is still the greatest Tory election winner since Thatcher and by far the most charismatic figure in UK politics today and on Ukraine he is a big figure on the world stage. Unless Labour build a really big poll lead and the Tories are trounced in the local elections, Tory MPs will be reluctant to remove him
We can be dismissive of Boris - and Conservatives who support him and thus share his values - because he is a liar. Because he is a crook. Because he corrupts the rule of law and our parliamentary system.
You sir may have no problem supporting lies and criminality and malfeasance and impropriety. But apparently you are starting to look like a minority in your own party. And when he goes and you reverse ferret and try to claim you always though he was a wrong'un, we will be here to point to the enormous plank sticking out of your eye.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Yep there are a few old tory men on here with their heads stuck in the sand who don't realise just how angry and hurt so many of us out there are.
You will.
I am indifferent to what the Tories feel. But I am also unwilling to let Tory voters off the hook. They may feel angry and hurt but it was they - not Tory MPs - who voted this man into power despite all the evidence of his unsuitability. So they got what they voted for. It's the rest of us who didn't who should be feeling really angry.
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
At some point the Tories have got to find an answer on the NIP. I was prepared to go along with Brexit when a majority voted for it and subsequent elections did not show a desire to resist the referendum result. However if they don't start providing answers to the current problems or a vision of what to do with our new powers then single market and customs union membership will become salient again. And it won't be the fault of saboteurs.
If we assume Johnson would now be toast if it weren't for the Ukraine war one wonders whether it is in his interest for the war to end? His comment about Putin having a 'huge' army seemed odd. If he has such an army one wonders why it isn't in Ukraine. We all need to guard against complacency and make sure the weapons keep going into Ukraine and Europe properly reduces its usage of Russian oil and gas. But Johnson shouldn't be talking up the threat from Putin as a way for him to stay in power.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
You are probably right, but, I suggest, somewhat less than 50/50. These thoughts must be in people's minds. 1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go. 2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election 3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders 4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
Hi OKC, I think you misunderstand. There is a 'motion of no confidence' in the House of Commons, which has to be tabled by the Leader of the Opposition, and a 'vote of no confidence' which the Tories hold among themselves. If the latter is held and he loses, he is automatically removed as leader of the party. He cannot therefore go to the Queen and ask for a dissolution as it would not help him. In any case, the 1922 committee could decide to remove him immediately and install an acting leader if they wished or if he decided to do crazy stuff.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
You're overlooking a possibility here that is so outlandish it must surely have occurred to the PM. In the event of losing a VOC he just digs in his heels and refuses to resign. The Tory party could proceed with an election if they want but Johnson is PM until he isn't, HMQ has no power to dismiss him and the Conservative Party has no constitutional significance. In such a situation Starmer could move a motion of no confidence in HoC but it would be against HMG, not against Johnson personally, and it remains to be seen how the PCP would respond. Or Starmer could resist the temptation and leave the Tories swinging on the gibbet.
Your possibility falls, because under the rules he doesn't resign if he loses a VONC, he is automatically removed. If he plays ball, he gets to stay PM until a successor is elected. If not, he can just be expelled from the party for a breach of rules and that is that as far his government is concerned.
He may be automatically removed as Tory leader but he can chose to remain as PM until the HoC passes Starmer's motion of no-confidence at which point he is constitutionally obliged to meet HMQ and recommend a successor. Obviously a lot of toys will have been thrown out of the pram by this stage, but it's wrong to suggest that Johnson automatically ceases to be PM just because of a vote by the PCP.
Then I don't understand your point. Under the rules he remains caretaker leader until a new leader is elected. So he would still be PM. As I have explained on here many times.
What you seemed to be saying was that he would either try to call an election, or refuse to recommend the new leader as PM. Is that correct?
Neither are realistic for the simple reason that he could then just be expelled from the party for ignoring its rules, and he would not have a government anyway.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
Hunt could renegotiate to BINO during his honeymoon. Threaten the swivel-eyed with ejection if they don't toe the line as Starmer has done. Brexit dead, all vacancies filled without assistance from Modi. GFI saved, M20 becomes a Motorway again, no queueing to pass immigration at Alicante Airport. Brexit means Brexit, deal done!
Mr. Taz, the enjoyment I've got from it recently has been the shitposting and pisstakes online. Only saw the first two episodes of the incumbent, and that proved a sound decision.
If RTD has the nerve to do it there's a perfect retcon opportunity, though. The Master's a known liar and the Matrix is just a fancy computer, so you could obviously falsify nonsense in it.
That being said, the overblown hero-worship of the Doctor has existed in all of New Who, (RTD got the ball rolling with the Time War, which pointlessly removed the Time Lords and made it so excuses were necessary to constantly reintroduce the daleks).
The hero worship only really came from Tennant onwards. The Eccleston series really was about Rose and her journey from council estate shop worker to saviour of the universe.
Yes, RTD has the perfect opportunity, he needs to get the casting right for the lead but I have every confidence he will.
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
They have the Gaul to call them that!
To increase their potency, do they all divide into three parts?
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
Brandon recently stirred from a nap and sent them 72 x M777 howitzer.
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
They like a classical flavour for their armaments. Exocet is ἐξώκοιτος, flying fish
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
Hunt may be likely to get into the final 2 with MPs again but he is extremely unlikely to win the Conservative members vote given he only got 33% with them last time. Wallace, who tops the latest Conhome Cabinet net satisfaction ratings is a far more likely successor.
I would also not be quite so dismissive of Boris, he is still the greatest Tory election winner since Thatcher and by far the most charismatic figure in UK politics today and on Ukraine he is a big figure on the world stage. Unless Labour build a really big poll lead and the Tories are trounced in the local elections, Tory MPs will be reluctant to remove him
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
True, but it highlights the difficulty of the Conservative situation.
The Community Charge was a flagship policy in the 1987 manifesto. But it was one ship- once it was rightly scuttled, there was still a decent fleet left.
Brexit is the entire navy for this government, including all the land bases that are called HMS despite not being ships.
Having gone for maximal Brexit, the U-turn to soften it will be so huge that it can only be done in opposition. Even though it's sensible thing to do.
Ironically, the only man with the chutzpah to get away with it is the incumbent PM, and he's fatally wounded. Just not dead yet. (Or possibly he is dead but hasn't noticed.)
At some point the Tories have got to find an answer on the NIP. I was prepared to go along with Brexit when a majority voted for it and subsequent elections did not show a desire to resist the referendum result. However if they don't start providing answers to the current problems or a vision of what to do with our new powers then single market and customs union membership will become salient again. And it won't be the fault of saboteurs.
If we assume Johnson would now be toast if it weren't for the Ukraine war one wonders whether it is in his interest for the war to end? His comment about Putin having a 'huge' army seemed odd. If he has such an army one wonders why it isn't in Ukraine. We all need to guard against complacency and make sure the weapons keep going into Ukraine and Europe properly reduces its usage of Russian oil and gas. But Johnson shouldn't be talking up the threat from Putin as a way for him to stay in power.
Stating that the war might drag on a long time, or that Putin might win are both statements of the bleeding obvious.
They are however particularly stupid statements for a PM to make publically at the present time. They don't seem to have gone down well in Ukraine.
Have we done this? This is truly frightening on so many levels.
Nadine Dorries has done it again.
The culture secretary prompted ridicule after featuring in a fellow Tory MP’s TikTok to explain her job.
But her phrasing raised a few quizzical eyebrows, and lent weight to the suggestion she struggles to fully grasp her brief.
In the clip shared by Luke Evans, she says the department of culture, media and sport is responsible for broadband, which means “you can downstream your movies” at home. People typically download movies.
One of her goals is to “make the internet in the UK the safest internet in the world”. The internet doesn’t really have national boundaries.
Dorries also fronts the Whitehall department in charge of sport, which involves “tennis pitches” (they’re usually referred to as courts), which is one of the places where you can “exercise your sports”.
No wonder Nadine Dorries is such an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson, she is so dense that light bends around her.
I’m sorry but I just think this is nothing. She seems to have mixed up streaming and downloading and called a tennis court a pitch. Big deal. This just strikes me as a needless cheap dig. People do it all the time.
People do but maybe the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media, Sport and Prostate Massages for Thick Leaver Twats shouldn't.
It’s micro stuff though. It’s irrelevant. The fact she doesn’t know is neither here nor there.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
Hunt could renegotiate to BINO during his honeymoon. Threaten the swivel-eyed with ejection if they don't toe the line as Starmer has done. Brexit dead, all vacancies filled without assistance from Modi. GFI saved, M20 becomes a Motorway again, no queueing to pass immigration at Alicante Airport. Brexit means Brexit, deal done!
The economy might be trickier.
If he became leader and does that it is Tory civil war. Mass defections to RefUK revived as Farage returns as leader on a pure Brexit platform again and Labour landslide not hung parliament with the Tories at risk of Pecresse style crushing defeat as they leak voters to the right and Farage while filing to win them back from Starmer and the LDs
Mr. Taz, casting has, (Whitaker aside), generally been good, it's the writing that's fallen off a cliff. Damned shame for Capaldi, as grumpy older Doctor was exactly the sort I wanted but I couldn't stand the writing.
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
They like a classical flavour for their armaments. Exocet is ἐξώκοιτος, flying fish
CAESAR is a contrived French acronym that basically means artillery on a truck.
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)? - An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
Brandon recently stirred from a nap and sent them 72 x M777 howitzer.
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
You are probably right, but, I suggest, somewhat less than 50/50. These thoughts must be in people's minds. 1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go. 2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election 3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders 4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
Hi OKC, I think you misunderstand. There is a 'motion of no confidence' in the House of Commons, which has to be tabled by the Leader of the Opposition, and a 'vote of no confidence' which the Tories hold among themselves. If the latter is held and he loses, he is automatically removed as leader of the party. He cannot therefore go to the Queen and ask for a dissolution as it would not help him. In any case, the 1922 committee could decide to remove him immediately and install an acting leader if they wished or if he decided to do crazy stuff.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
You're overlooking a possibility here that is so outlandish it must surely have occurred to the PM. In the event of losing a VOC he just digs in his heels and refuses to resign. The Tory party could proceed with an election if they want but Johnson is PM until he isn't, HMQ has no power to dismiss him and the Conservative Party has no constitutional significance. In such a situation Starmer could move a motion of no confidence in HoC but it would be against HMG, not against Johnson personally, and it remains to be seen how the PCP would respond. Or Starmer could resist the temptation and leave the Tories swinging on the gibbet.
Your possibility falls, because under the rules he doesn't resign if he loses a VONC, he is automatically removed. If he plays ball, he gets to stay PM until a successor is elected. If not, he can just be expelled from the party for a breach of rules and that is that as far his government is concerned.
He may be automatically removed as Tory leader but he can chose to remain as PM until the HoC passes Starmer's motion of no-confidence at which point he is constitutionally obliged to meet HMQ and recommend a successor. Obviously a lot of toys will have been thrown out of the pram by this stage, but it's wrong to suggest that Johnson automatically ceases to be PM just because of a vote by the PCP.
Then I don't understand your point. Under the rules he remains caretaker leader until a new leader is elected. So he would still be PM. As I have explained on here many times.
What you seemed to be saying was that he would either try to call an election, or refuse to recommend the new leader as PM. Is that correct?
Neither are realistic for the simple reason that he could then just be expelled from the party for ignoring its rules, and he would not have a government anyway.
Yes ... he would refuse to recommend the new leader as PM. He would face the HoC as PM instead. He would have to fill a few vacant ministerial posts but there are always willing takers. In the event of Starmer proposing a motion of no confidence in HMG, what would Tory MPs do? Would they vote down a 'Tory' government with a gun pointing at them? And what would the ScotNats do? In their position I'd be inclined to abstain on the grounds that the entire imbroglio was quintessentially English business.
Apparently there is a Russian phrase that quantity has a quality all of its own. Easy to sniff at that but with all the talk about he fancy weaponry we are sending - starstreak, caeser etc - I just hope there is enough of them. I also hope that behind the scenes there has been some training going on in how to use them.
Have we done this? This is truly frightening on so many levels.
Nadine Dorries has done it again.
The culture secretary prompted ridicule after featuring in a fellow Tory MP’s TikTok to explain her job.
But her phrasing raised a few quizzical eyebrows, and lent weight to the suggestion she struggles to fully grasp her brief.
In the clip shared by Luke Evans, she says the department of culture, media and sport is responsible for broadband, which means “you can downstream your movies” at home. People typically download movies.
One of her goals is to “make the internet in the UK the safest internet in the world”. The internet doesn’t really have national boundaries.
Dorries also fronts the Whitehall department in charge of sport, which involves “tennis pitches” (they’re usually referred to as courts), which is one of the places where you can “exercise your sports”.
No wonder Nadine Dorries is such an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson, she is so dense that light bends around her.
The rest is just lol but I am from the government and I am here to make the internet safe for you are the most frightening words in the language. She and people like her are Johnson's extended phenotype; another reason for him to go is she must.
Have we done this? This is truly frightening on so many levels.
Nadine Dorries has done it again.
The culture secretary prompted ridicule after featuring in a fellow Tory MP’s TikTok to explain her job.
But her phrasing raised a few quizzical eyebrows, and lent weight to the suggestion she struggles to fully grasp her brief.
In the clip shared by Luke Evans, she says the department of culture, media and sport is responsible for broadband, which means “you can downstream your movies” at home. People typically download movies.
One of her goals is to “make the internet in the UK the safest internet in the world”. The internet doesn’t really have national boundaries.
Dorries also fronts the Whitehall department in charge of sport, which involves “tennis pitches” (they’re usually referred to as courts), which is one of the places where you can “exercise your sports”.
No wonder Nadine Dorries is such an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson, she is so dense that light bends around her.
I’m sorry but I just think this is nothing. She seems to have mixed up streaming and downloading and called a tennis court a pitch. Big deal. This just strikes me as a needless cheap dig. People do it all the time.
People do but maybe the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media, Sport and Prostate Massages for Thick Leaver Twats shouldn't.
It’s micro stuff though. It’s irrelevant. The fact she doesn’t know is neither here nor there.
It's actually the blatant simpering and hair flicking I find most disturbing.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
It's the sycophantic way some people can't see the fault in his stars that ignites the fury in me, even more than the clot himself: the Nadine Dorries wonderstruck look, like a female bird of paradise entranced by a male bird's dance. I expect it is partly because he has a famously huge penis.
Once you see through the magician's sleight of hand, you realise that there's nothing beneath. A song and dance showman who steps forward night after night to trip the light fantastic.
And with that dizzying mixture of metaphors I bid you all g'day.
"ignites the fury in me"
I think you may need to calm down a little.
I could pose it the other way as well: far too many people are utterly unwilling to see anything good about him; and anything the government gets right is not down to him in any way. And anyone pointing out that he has got something right become seen as fans of his, however much they criticise other aspects.
Johnson is deeply flawed, but he is not the devil incarnate that some like to make him out to be.
Reserve your fury for the people who really deserve it - like people not wearing masks in shops.
In fairness Johnson gets various things right, as all governments do. Something that isn't apparent in daily news coverage is the pull of daily business towards inertia. A lot of government is proceeding normally and, without looking at it in partisan terms, quite reasonably. I was chatting yesterday to the head of a large charity (not animal welfare this time) who said he's in contact with No 10's team every week and they're being really helpful. He's somewhat uneasy at a prospective change in leadership simply because it would disrupt day-to-day relations, and who knows what the new team would be like?
There's a lot of that sort of thing in everyday Parliamentary affairs, as MPs seek to have their concerns met and often make some headway, and if there isn't a really strong reason to switch the allure of just carrying on and hoping for the best is pretty strong. I felt it in 2009 when Charles Clarke was trying to organise a letter to Gordon to urge him to stand down - I declined, because the disruptive effect was obvious and the prospective benefit of an unknown replacement was intangible.
Mr. Taz, casting has, (Whitaker aside), generally been good, it's the writing that's fallen off a cliff. Damned shame for Capaldi, as grumpy older Doctor was exactly the sort I wanted but I couldn't stand the writing.
I've mentioned this before. William Hartnell, the very model of a grumpy old doctor, appeared in the first episode of DW on the Saturday between the assassination of JFK the day before and the murder of LHO the day after. What a weekend.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Apparently there is a Russian phrase that quantity has a quality all of its own. Easy to sniff at that but with all the talk about he fancy weaponry we are sending - starstreak, caeser etc - I just hope there is enough of them. I also hope that behind the scenes there has been some training going on in how to use them.
There's a very interesting essay in this week's Newstatesman by Richard Evans about parallels between Hitler's assault on Soviet Union and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. One point he makes is that the German generals were staggered to find that there was a seemingly never ending supply of soviet troops. They killed hundreds of thousands and still more would come. He wasn't arguing this would happen now necessarily, but a wider point about the depth and scale of Russia.
Putin could grind this on for years as he cares nothing for the loss of young men's lives. Whether his economy can stand it is a moot question.
Have we done this? This is truly frightening on so many levels.
Nadine Dorries has done it again.
The culture secretary prompted ridicule after featuring in a fellow Tory MP’s TikTok to explain her job.
But her phrasing raised a few quizzical eyebrows, and lent weight to the suggestion she struggles to fully grasp her brief.
In the clip shared by Luke Evans, she says the department of culture, media and sport is responsible for broadband, which means “you can downstream your movies” at home. People typically download movies.
One of her goals is to “make the internet in the UK the safest internet in the world”. The internet doesn’t really have national boundaries.
Dorries also fronts the Whitehall department in charge of sport, which involves “tennis pitches” (they’re usually referred to as courts), which is one of the places where you can “exercise your sports”.
No wonder Nadine Dorries is such an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson, she is so dense that light bends around her.
I’m sorry but I just think this is nothing. She seems to have mixed up streaming and downloading and called a tennis court a pitch. Big deal. This just strikes me as a needless cheap dig. People do it all the time.
People do but maybe the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media, Sport and Prostate Massages for Thick Leaver Twats shouldn't.
It’s micro stuff though. It’s irrelevant. The fact she doesn’t know is neither here nor there.
It's actually the blatant simpering and hair flicking I find most disturbing.
Mr. Z, to be fair, lots of MPs are staggeringly technologically deficient (even more so than me, which is saying something).
Minister for digital though. And it's not the ineptitude, it's the Chinese Communist party style assumption that government can and should dictate what the internet is like
Have we done this? This is truly frightening on so many levels.
Nadine Dorries has done it again.
The culture secretary prompted ridicule after featuring in a fellow Tory MP’s TikTok to explain her job.
But her phrasing raised a few quizzical eyebrows, and lent weight to the suggestion she struggles to fully grasp her brief.
In the clip shared by Luke Evans, she says the department of culture, media and sport is responsible for broadband, which means “you can downstream your movies” at home. People typically download movies.
One of her goals is to “make the internet in the UK the safest internet in the world”. The internet doesn’t really have national boundaries.
Dorries also fronts the Whitehall department in charge of sport, which involves “tennis pitches” (they’re usually referred to as courts), which is one of the places where you can “exercise your sports”.
No wonder Nadine Dorries is such an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson, she is so dense that light bends around her.
I’m sorry but I just think this is nothing. She seems to have mixed up streaming and downloading and called a tennis court a pitch. Big deal. This just strikes me as a needless cheap dig. People do it all the time.
People do but maybe the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media, Sport and Prostate Massages for Thick Leaver Twats shouldn't.
It’s micro stuff though. It’s irrelevant. The fact she doesn’t know is neither here nor there.
It's actually the blatant simpering and hair flicking I find most disturbing.
It's the sycophantic way some people can't see the fault in his stars that ignites the fury in me, even more than the clot himself: the Nadine Dorries wonderstruck look, like a female bird of paradise entranced by a male bird's dance. I expect it is partly because he has a famously huge penis.
Once you see through the magician's sleight of hand, you realise that there's nothing beneath. A song and dance showman who steps forward night after night to trip the light fantastic.
And with that dizzying mixture of metaphors I bid you all g'day.
"ignites the fury in me"
I think you may need to calm down a little.
I could pose it the other way as well: far too many people are utterly unwilling to see anything good about him; and anything the government gets right is not down to him in any way. And anyone pointing out that he has got something right become seen as fans of his, however much they criticise other aspects.
Johnson is deeply flawed, but he is not the devil incarnate that some like to make him out to be.
Reserve your fury for the people who really deserve it - like people not wearing masks in shops.
In fairness Johnson gets various things right, as all governments do. Something that isn't apparent in daily news coverage is the pull of daily business towards inertia. A lot of government is proceeding normally and, without looking at it in partisan terms, quite reasonably. I was chatting yesterday to the head of a large charity (not animal welfare this time) who said he's in contact with No 10's team every week and they're being really helpful. He's somewhat uneasy at a prospective change in leadership simply because it would disrupt day-to-day relations, and who knows what the new team would be like?
There's a lot of that sort of thing in everyday Parliamentary affairs, as MPs seek to have their concerns met and often make some headway, and if there isn't a really strong reason to switch the allure of just carrying on and hoping for the best is pretty strong. I felt it in 2009 when Charles Clarke was trying to organise a letter to Gordon to urge him to stand down - I declined, because the disruptive effect was obvious and the prospective benefit of an unknown replacement was intangible.
As long as the queue filling their bankbooks are ok all is fine. Try finding a pleb who cannot just lift the phone to downing street what they think. I bet your charity chum is a Tory in the mould of Boris and far and happy on a huge salary, worried in case the gravy train hits the buffers
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
You are probably right, but, I suggest, somewhat less than 50/50. These thoughts must be in people's minds. 1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go. 2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election 3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders 4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
Hi OKC, I think you misunderstand. There is a 'motion of no confidence' in the House of Commons, which has to be tabled by the Leader of the Opposition, and a 'vote of no confidence' which the Tories hold among themselves. If the latter is held and he loses, he is automatically removed as leader of the party. He cannot therefore go to the Queen and ask for a dissolution as it would not help him. In any case, the 1922 committee could decide to remove him immediately and install an acting leader if they wished or if he decided to do crazy stuff.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
You're overlooking a possibility here that is so outlandish it must surely have occurred to the PM. In the event of losing a VOC he just digs in his heels and refuses to resign. The Tory party could proceed with an election if they want but Johnson is PM until he isn't, HMQ has no power to dismiss him and the Conservative Party has no constitutional significance. In such a situation Starmer could move a motion of no confidence in HoC but it would be against HMG, not against Johnson personally, and it remains to be seen how the PCP would respond. Or Starmer could resist the temptation and leave the Tories swinging on the gibbet.
Your possibility falls, because under the rules he doesn't resign if he loses a VONC, he is automatically removed. If he plays ball, he gets to stay PM until a successor is elected. If not, he can just be expelled from the party for a breach of rules and that is that as far his government is concerned.
He may be automatically removed as Tory leader but he can chose to remain as PM until the HoC passes Starmer's motion of no-confidence at which point he is constitutionally obliged to meet HMQ and recommend a successor. Obviously a lot of toys will have been thrown out of the pram by this stage, but it's wrong to suggest that Johnson automatically ceases to be PM just because of a vote by the PCP.
Then I don't understand your point. Under the rules he remains caretaker leader until a new leader is elected. So he would still be PM. As I have explained on here many times.
What you seemed to be saying was that he would either try to call an election, or refuse to recommend the new leader as PM. Is that correct?
Neither are realistic for the simple reason that he could then just be expelled from the party for ignoring its rules, and he would not have a government anyway.
Yes ... he would refuse to recommend the new leader as PM. He would face the HoC as PM instead. He would have to fill a few vacant ministerial posts but there are always willing takers. In the event of Starmer proposing a motion of no confidence in HMG, what would Tory MPs do? Would they vote down a 'Tory' government with a gun pointing at them? And what would the ScotNats do? In their position I'd be inclined to abstain on the grounds that the entire imbroglio was quintessentially English business.
The latter would not be the case at all for the matter of the PM of the UK, surely. PC and the NI parties would also have their views.
Have we done this? This is truly frightening on so many levels.
Nadine Dorries has done it again.
The culture secretary prompted ridicule after featuring in a fellow Tory MP’s TikTok to explain her job.
But her phrasing raised a few quizzical eyebrows, and lent weight to the suggestion she struggles to fully grasp her brief.
In the clip shared by Luke Evans, she says the department of culture, media and sport is responsible for broadband, which means “you can downstream your movies” at home. People typically download movies.
One of her goals is to “make the internet in the UK the safest internet in the world”. The internet doesn’t really have national boundaries.
Dorries also fronts the Whitehall department in charge of sport, which involves “tennis pitches” (they’re usually referred to as courts), which is one of the places where you can “exercise your sports”.
No wonder Nadine Dorries is such an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson, she is so dense that light bends around her.
I’m sorry but I just think this is nothing. She seems to have mixed up streaming and downloading and called a tennis court a pitch. Big deal. This just strikes me as a needless cheap dig. People do it all the time.
People do but maybe the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media, Sport and Prostate Massages for Thick Leaver Twats shouldn't.
It’s micro stuff though. It’s irrelevant. The fact she doesn’t know is neither here nor there.
Don't agree. It's like a TRansport Secretary talking about light railways when trams are intended. Very different things, and ex cathedra statements are always taken seriously.
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
You are probably right, but, I suggest, somewhat less than 50/50. These thoughts must be in people's minds. 1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go. 2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election 3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders 4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
Hi OKC, I think you misunderstand. There is a 'motion of no confidence' in the House of Commons, which has to be tabled by the Leader of the Opposition, and a 'vote of no confidence' which the Tories hold among themselves. If the latter is held and he loses, he is automatically removed as leader of the party. He cannot therefore go to the Queen and ask for a dissolution as it would not help him. In any case, the 1922 committee could decide to remove him immediately and install an acting leader if they wished or if he decided to do crazy stuff.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
You're overlooking a possibility here that is so outlandish it must surely have occurred to the PM. In the event of losing a VOC he just digs in his heels and refuses to resign. The Tory party could proceed with an election if they want but Johnson is PM until he isn't, HMQ has no power to dismiss him and the Conservative Party has no constitutional significance. In such a situation Starmer could move a motion of no confidence in HoC but it would be against HMG, not against Johnson personally, and it remains to be seen how the PCP would respond. Or Starmer could resist the temptation and leave the Tories swinging on the gibbet.
Thanks Mr S (I assume, if not apols). That was what I was getting at. We got close to a similar position late in 2019, before the Opposition parties were conned into supporting an election. It is possible, although unlikely, that, were Johnson to lose a Party VoNC he would remain in office with a rump Cabinet; after all one would expect Patel and Dorries, for example, to stick with him. It would be a nightmare for a few weeks.
I think a major factor on this may well that birthday cake. We know Mr & Mrs Boris got FPNs and Sunak got named and shamed just...because. But the rest of the cabinet were there too. Did they all get one? If so, this will have a very negative impact on most of the obvious runners and riders. Anyone definitely not in the room, such as Hunt, becomes a better bet as a result.
There would be very little point in the Tories going through the agonies of overthrowing a leader only to have the next one tainted with the same brush.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
Again you repeat this mantra that any revisiting of Brexit will see a landslide defeat with the resurrection of Farage as your saviour
Farage is over, as is Reform UK whoever they are, and you are turning yourself into a one person ex conservative promoting a cult that is not only as bad as Corbyn, but also heading the same way
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Mr. Taz, casting has, (Whitaker aside), generally been good, it's the writing that's fallen off a cliff. Damned shame for Capaldi, as grumpy older Doctor was exactly the sort I wanted but I couldn't stand the writing.
At the risk of turning pb into GallifreyBase, I hated capaldis characterisation at first, but grew to like it a lot by the end. There were some very good stories there too. Everything since has been terrible. Too many companions (always hard to write for, and tends to diminish supporting cast of the episode, notably so as only 47 minutes long now, not the longer formats of the past. Doctors character all over the place. Pathetic love interest nonsense that just isn’t needed. Time to get back to a character spreading love and happiness through the galaxy. Fighting evil with a smile on his/her face and a boiling fury inside.
And if the doctor woke up and reported a weird dream in the style of Bobby Ewing, I’d shed no tears...
Apparently there is a Russian phrase that quantity has a quality all of its own. Easy to sniff at that but with all the talk about he fancy weaponry we are sending - starstreak, caeser etc - I just hope there is enough of them. I also hope that behind the scenes there has been some training going on in how to use them.
There's a very interesting essay in this week's Newstatesman by Richard Evans about parallels between Hitler's assault on Soviet Union and Putin's invasion of Ukraine. One point he makes is that the German generals were staggered to find that there was a seemingly never ending supply of soviet troops. They killed hundreds of thousands and still more would come. He wasn't arguing this would happen now necessarily, but a wider point about the depth and scale of Russia.
Putin could grind this on for years as he cares nothing for the loss of young men's lives. Whether his economy can stand it is a moot question.
Though in this case role reversal. Russia is struggling for cannon fodder, hence the Libyan and Syrian mercenaries, while Ukraine has mobilised a very well motivated army. It is quite possible that Ukraine has both more troops and more tanks in theatre.
Numbers are not on the Russian side anymore. The famed Donbas offensive seems to have stalled, the question is whether it grinds on as a stalemate, or whether Ukraine forces a further retreat.
It's the sycophantic way some people can't see the fault in his stars that ignites the fury in me, even more than the clot himself: the Nadine Dorries wonderstruck look, like a female bird of paradise entranced by a male bird's dance. I expect it is partly because he has a famously huge penis.
Once you see through the magician's sleight of hand, you realise that there's nothing beneath. A song and dance showman who steps forward night after night to trip the light fantastic.
And with that dizzying mixture of metaphors I bid you all g'day.
"ignites the fury in me"
I think you may need to calm down a little.
I could pose it the other way as well: far too many people are utterly unwilling to see anything good about him; and anything the government gets right is not down to him in any way. And anyone pointing out that he has got something right become seen as fans of his, however much they criticise other aspects.
Johnson is deeply flawed, but he is not the devil incarnate that some like to make him out to be.
Reserve your fury for the people who really deserve it - like people not wearing masks in shops.
In fairness Johnson gets various things right, as all governments do. Something that isn't apparent in daily news coverage is the pull of daily business towards inertia. A lot of government is proceeding normally and, without looking at it in partisan terms, quite reasonably. I was chatting yesterday to the head of a large charity (not animal welfare this time) who said he's in contact with No 10's team every week and they're being really helpful. He's somewhat uneasy at a prospective change in leadership simply because it would disrupt day-to-day relations, and who knows what the new team would be like?
There's a lot of that sort of thing in everyday Parliamentary affairs, as MPs seek to have their concerns met and often make some headway, and if there isn't a really strong reason to switch the allure of just carrying on and hoping for the best is pretty strong. I felt it in 2009 when Charles Clarke was trying to organise a letter to Gordon to urge him to stand down - I declined, because the disruptive effect was obvious and the prospective benefit of an unknown replacement was intangible.
An excellent and fair description of inertia and the power of incumbency. Boris is deeply damaged and being assailed from all quarters but he is by no means finished yet.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Yes we know your agenda, Tory wipeout.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
As long as the queue filling their bankbooks are ok all is fine. Try finding a pleb who cannot just lift the phone to downing street what they think. I bet your charity chum is a Tory in the mould of Boris and far and happy on a huge salary, worried in case the gravy train hits the buffers
He's privately pretty much as left-wing as I am. But his particular issue is getting proper attention so he - somewhat reluctantly - concedes that the work that his charity does may be disrupted by a change. I don't think his personal position would be affected either way - he's been doing it for many years, pre-Johnson.
My post was to illustrate the nuance of everyday Parliamentary life. Not everything goes wrong at once, and there are always reasons to wait a month while issue X is sorted, then another month for issue Y, and so on. Actually changing leader is a big deal - it may happen, but if Johnson manages a few quiet weeks after the local elections (e.g. no new fines and Sue Gray writing in formal civil service terms that don't lend themselves to headlines) he may well see it through.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Yes we know your agenda, Tory wipeout.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
No they wouldn't.
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
Yes they would. Barely any LDs or Starmer Labour voters would return to the Tories if they abandoned Brexit bar one or 2. Leavers and the Redwall however would surge to RefUK and Farage however if Brexit was abandoned.
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Yes, BINO suits me, but it suits my Brexiteer friends too.
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Yes we know your agenda, Tory wipeout.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
Surely more likely to be Blackford or possibly Davey. LOTO is the Leader of the largest Opposition party and in the scenario described a Faragist party would be smaller than one of them, or possibly smaller than both.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
They absolutely could turn the mess around and win - as John Major did. But then we have the big issue - which as you say is Brexit.
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
The poll tax is not Brexit given very few Tories were committed to the poll tax but the vast majority of Tory voters and members are still committed to Brexit.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
Who said "abandon Brexit"? We left the EU. Its is done, and we aren't going back. This is about the post-Brexit world. There are multiple groups of "I want this from Brexit" amongst your 2019 vote and they all clash. At the moment none of them are happy. So find a way to settle and draw a line. Offer true Tory things like slashing red tape, bureaucracy and cost. Then move on.
As for "very few Tories were committed to the poll tax" it was front and centre in the 1987 manifesto which delivered Thatcher a larger majority than Johnson. You always talk about the 2019 manifesto as if the pledges are forged in iron, yet dismiss the 1987 one for the reverse reason.
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
You are probably right, but, I suggest, somewhat less than 50/50. These thoughts must be in people's minds. 1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go. 2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election 3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders 4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
Hi OKC, I think you misunderstand. There is a 'motion of no confidence' in the House of Commons, which has to be tabled by the Leader of the Opposition, and a 'vote of no confidence' which the Tories hold among themselves. If the latter is held and he loses, he is automatically removed as leader of the party. He cannot therefore go to the Queen and ask for a dissolution as it would not help him. In any case, the 1922 committee could decide to remove him immediately and install an acting leader if they wished or if he decided to do crazy stuff.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
You're overlooking a possibility here that is so outlandish it must surely have occurred to the PM. In the event of losing a VOC he just digs in his heels and refuses to resign. The Tory party could proceed with an election if they want but Johnson is PM until he isn't, HMQ has no power to dismiss him and the Conservative Party has no constitutional significance. In such a situation Starmer could move a motion of no confidence in HoC but it would be against HMG, not against Johnson personally, and it remains to be seen how the PCP would respond. Or Starmer could resist the temptation and leave the Tories swinging on the gibbet.
Thanks Mr S (I assume, if not apols). That was what I was getting at. We got close to a similar position late in 2019, before the Opposition parties were conned into supporting an election. It is possible, although unlikely, that, were Johnson to lose a Party VoNC he would remain in office with a rump Cabinet; after all one would expect Patel and Dorries, for example, to stick with him. It would be a nightmare for a few weeks.
I'll admit it's unlikely ... but not impossible. Johnson has used the Conservative Party as a ladder to the top. He might just be tempted to kick it away when it suits him.
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
You are probably right, but, I suggest, somewhat less than 50/50. These thoughts must be in people's minds. 1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go. 2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election 3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders 4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
Hi OKC, I think you misunderstand. There is a 'motion of no confidence' in the House of Commons, which has to be tabled by the Leader of the Opposition, and a 'vote of no confidence' which the Tories hold among themselves. If the latter is held and he loses, he is automatically removed as leader of the party. He cannot therefore go to the Queen and ask for a dissolution as it would not help him. In any case, the 1922 committee could decide to remove him immediately and install an acting leader if they wished or if he decided to do crazy stuff.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
You're overlooking a possibility here that is so outlandish it must surely have occurred to the PM. In the event of losing a VOC he just digs in his heels and refuses to resign. The Tory party could proceed with an election if they want but Johnson is PM until he isn't, HMQ has no power to dismiss him and the Conservative Party has no constitutional significance. In such a situation Starmer could move a motion of no confidence in HoC but it would be against HMG, not against Johnson personally, and it remains to be seen how the PCP would respond. Or Starmer could resist the temptation and leave the Tories swinging on the gibbet.
Your possibility falls, because under the rules he doesn't resign if he loses a VONC, he is automatically removed. If he plays ball, he gets to stay PM until a successor is elected. If not, he can just be expelled from the party for a breach of rules and that is that as far his government is concerned.
He may be automatically removed as Tory leader but he can chose to remain as PM until the HoC passes Starmer's motion of no-confidence at which point he is constitutionally obliged to meet HMQ and recommend a successor. Obviously a lot of toys will have been thrown out of the pram by this stage, but it's wrong to suggest that Johnson automatically ceases to be PM just because of a vote by the PCP.
Then I don't understand your point. Under the rules he remains caretaker leader until a new leader is elected. So he would still be PM. As I have explained on here many times.
What you seemed to be saying was that he would either try to call an election, or refuse to recommend the new leader as PM. Is that correct?
Neither are realistic for the simple reason that he could then just be expelled from the party for ignoring its rules, and he would not have a government anyway.
Yes ... he would refuse to recommend the new leader as PM. He would face the HoC as PM instead. He would have to fill a few vacant ministerial posts but there are always willing takers. In the event of Starmer proposing a motion of no confidence in HMG, what would Tory MPs do? Would they vote down a 'Tory' government with a gun pointing at them? And what would the ScotNats do? In their position I'd be inclined to abstain on the grounds that the entire imbroglio was quintessentially English business.
The latter would not be the case at all for the matter of the PM of the UK, surely. PC and the NI parties would also have their views.
I think a major factor on this may well that birthday cake. We know Mr & Mrs Boris got FPNs and Sunak got named and shamed just...because. But the rest of the cabinet were there too. Did they all get one? If so, this will have a very negative impact on most of the obvious runners and riders. Anyone definitely not in the room, such as Hunt, becomes a better bet as a result.
There would be very little point in the Tories going through the agonies of overthrowing a leader only to have the next one tainted with the same brush.
Sunak got a FPN on exactly the same grounds as the Johnsons. There's no suggestion that I have seen about the rest of the cabinet. The party was in the cabinet room, but so what. Presumably it is available for other purposes
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
You are probably right, but, I suggest, somewhat less than 50/50. These thoughts must be in people's minds. 1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go. 2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election 3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders 4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
Hi OKC, I think you misunderstand. There is a 'motion of no confidence' in the House of Commons, which has to be tabled by the Leader of the Opposition, and a 'vote of no confidence' which the Tories hold among themselves. If the latter is held and he loses, he is automatically removed as leader of the party. He cannot therefore go to the Queen and ask for a dissolution as it would not help him. In any case, the 1922 committee could decide to remove him immediately and install an acting leader if they wished or if he decided to do crazy stuff.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
You're overlooking a possibility here that is so outlandish it must surely have occurred to the PM. In the event of losing a VOC he just digs in his heels and refuses to resign. The Tory party could proceed with an election if they want but Johnson is PM until he isn't, HMQ has no power to dismiss him and the Conservative Party has no constitutional significance. In such a situation Starmer could move a motion of no confidence in HoC but it would be against HMG, not against Johnson personally, and it remains to be seen how the PCP would respond. Or Starmer could resist the temptation and leave the Tories swinging on the gibbet.
Thanks Mr S (I assume, if not apols). That was what I was getting at. We got close to a similar position late in 2019, before the Opposition parties were conned into supporting an election. It is possible, although unlikely, that, were Johnson to lose a Party VoNC he would remain in office with a rump Cabinet; after all one would expect Patel and Dorries, for example, to stick with him. It would be a nightmare for a few weeks.
I'll admit it's unlikely ... but not impossible. Johnson has used the Conservative Party as a ladder to the top. He might just be tempted to kick it away when it suits him.
He's got form of course; was the SDP candidate for the Oxford Union presidency the election he won.
As long as the queue filling their bankbooks are ok all is fine. Try finding a pleb who cannot just lift the phone to downing street what they think. I bet your charity chum is a Tory in the mould of Boris and far and happy on a huge salary, worried in case the gravy train hits the buffers
He's privately pretty much as left-wing as I am. But his particular issue is getting proper attention so he - somewhat reluctantly - concedes that the work that his charity does may be disrupted by a change. I don't think his personal position would be affected either way - he's been doing it for many years, pre-Johnson.
My post was to illustrate the nuance of everyday Parliamentary life. Not everything goes wrong at once, and there are always reasons to wait a month while issue X is sorted, then another month for issue Y, and so on. Actually changing leader is a big deal - it may happen, but if Johnson manages a few quiet weeks after the local elections (e.g. no new fines and Sue Gray writing in formal civil service terms that don't lend themselves to headlines) he may well see it through.
Well said Nick. You mean that there’s actually a lot of good things that go on in government, aside from the numerous trivialities that dominate Twitter for a few hours at a time…
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
Great post. We saw a similar issue with Corbyn (though there were thr members to consider) of many MPs, people who are confident enough to ask the public to grant them a share of the power to tun this country, so lacking in boldness that they would constantly leak, anonymously, about their upset or outrage, without acting.
Upset Tory MPs may not feel there are any easy choices, but they asked to be able to take difficult choices for us. Stand up or shut up.
Anyone paying attention to the Marjorie Taylor Greene hearing?
It is just scene after scene of MTG saying she never said "The Dems are all blood sucking traitors" and then counsel presenting exhibit X which is video of MTG saying "The Dems are all blood sucking traitors".
Again, and again and again.
Obviously she is going to win this but it is all bleakly hilarious
A lot of talk about ending (some) sanctions once the war ends. I hope it can be agreed that no sanctions will be removed on Russia until ALL Ukrainians deported to Russia have been allowed to return home. Speculation of up to half a million in total including over 100,000 children forcibly adopted. Hideous.
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
Great post. We saw a similar issue with Corbyn (though there were thr members to consider) of many MPs, people who are confident enough to ask the public to grant them a share of the power to tun this country, so lacking in boldness that they would constantly leak, anonymously, about their upset or outrage, without acting.
Upset Tory MPs may not feel there are any easy choices, but they asked to be able to take difficult choices for us. Stand up or shut up.
The Labour MPs literally passed a vote of no confidence in Corbyn.
An implied 24% probability for people not in the top eight of the betting seems high. Is that mainly covering the possibility that Johnson might survive for some time, allowing someone currently overlooked to make a strong showing?
Broadly in agreement with the header, and have been for a long time. It is obvious that anyone still in government is very unlikely to be the next leader. Look at hot favourite Sunak. If he were now PM we would be immersed in Nondomgate, Greencardgate and FPNgate, and he would be toasting gently.
And so it is with all those associated with government at the moment. With brexit done, Tory MPs look to one main thing - keeping their seats. Many people (not me) think a Labour majority is thinkable. That's 126 or so Tory MPs looking at Wakefield with interest.
While the membership of the party is plainly bonkers, the MPs have a self interest to protect. They will have to reduce to two candidates neither of whom is populist right, and neither currently in government - because the MPs can't risk them winning the run off.
Which is why Hunt (I have been on him for months) and Tugendhat are current favourites.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Labour was in a similar situation three years ago under Corbyn. The damage being done to the Conservatives may be greater, especially as they are in power, but a new leader with a firm broom could turn it around within a parliament. Or not.
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
So long as a substantial number will rally behind anyone who implies Brexit is threatened, they risk a Tory Corbyn emerging.
The announcement from the Met that they wouldn't be announcing any more fines, and the sudden tidal shift of sentiment on the back benches followed neatly on from each other, it seems. Am I wrong to assume this meant Big Dog got another, or perhaps, multiple, fines this week? It would explain a fair bit.
Have we done this? This is truly frightening on so many levels.
Nadine Dorries has done it again.
The culture secretary prompted ridicule after featuring in a fellow Tory MP’s TikTok to explain her job.
But her phrasing raised a few quizzical eyebrows, and lent weight to the suggestion she struggles to fully grasp her brief.
In the clip shared by Luke Evans, she says the department of culture, media and sport is responsible for broadband, which means “you can downstream your movies” at home. People typically download movies.
One of her goals is to “make the internet in the UK the safest internet in the world”. The internet doesn’t really have national boundaries.
Dorries also fronts the Whitehall department in charge of sport, which involves “tennis pitches” (they’re usually referred to as courts), which is one of the places where you can “exercise your sports”.
No wonder Nadine Dorries is such an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson, she is so dense that light bends around her.
I’m sorry but I just think this is nothing. She seems to have mixed up streaming and downloading and called a tennis court a pitch. Big deal. This just strikes me as a needless cheap dig. People do it all the time.
People do but maybe the Secretary of State for Digital, Culture, Media, Sport and Prostate Massages for Thick Leaver Twats shouldn't.
It’s micro stuff though. It’s irrelevant. The fact she doesn’t know is neither here nor there.
It's actually the blatant simpering and hair flicking I find most disturbing.
Yes, and she is clearly not up to the job. At best she’s an average backbencher. Totally promoted above her ability, she’s not up to it for far greater reasons than confusing streaming and downloading.
I think a major factor on this may well that birthday cake. We know Mr & Mrs Boris got FPNs and Sunak got named and shamed just...because. But the rest of the cabinet were there too. Did they all get one? If so, this will have a very negative impact on most of the obvious runners and riders. Anyone definitely not in the room, such as Hunt, becomes a better bet as a result.
There would be very little point in the Tories going through the agonies of overthrowing a leader only to have the next one tainted with the same brush.
Sunak got a FPN on exactly the same grounds as the Johnsons. There's no suggestion that I have seen about the rest of the cabinet. The party was in the cabinet room, but so what. Presumably it is available for other purposes
Wasn't the famous "ambush by cake" after a covid operational meeting? So probably the covid subcommittee rather than full cabinet.
There's a whole psychology PhD to be written about why MPs often feel so helpless despite literally holding the power in their hands. It's not even like the bar is that high. 50-odd MPs signing a letter would end this one way or another.
You are probably right, but, I suggest, somewhat less than 50/50. These thoughts must be in people's minds. 1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go. 2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election 3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders 4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
Hi OKC, I think you misunderstand. There is a 'motion of no confidence' in the House of Commons, which has to be tabled by the Leader of the Opposition, and a 'vote of no confidence' which the Tories hold among themselves. If the latter is held and he loses, he is automatically removed as leader of the party. He cannot therefore go to the Queen and ask for a dissolution as it would not help him. In any case, the 1922 committee could decide to remove him immediately and install an acting leader if they wished or if he decided to do crazy stuff.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
You're overlooking a possibility here that is so outlandish it must surely have occurred to the PM. In the event of losing a VOC he just digs in his heels and refuses to resign. The Tory party could proceed with an election if they want but Johnson is PM until he isn't, HMQ has no power to dismiss him and the Conservative Party has no constitutional significance. In such a situation Starmer could move a motion of no confidence in HoC but it would be against HMG, not against Johnson personally, and it remains to be seen how the PCP would respond. Or Starmer could resist the temptation and leave the Tories swinging on the gibbet.
Thanks Mr S (I assume, if not apols). That was what I was getting at. We got close to a similar position late in 2019, before the Opposition parties were conned into supporting an election. It is possible, although unlikely, that, were Johnson to lose a Party VoNC he would remain in office with a rump Cabinet; after all one would expect Patel and Dorries, for example, to stick with him. It would be a nightmare for a few weeks.
I'll admit it's unlikely ... but not impossible. Johnson has used the Conservative Party as a ladder to the top. He might just be tempted to kick it away when it suits him.
He's got form of course; was the SDP candidate for the Oxford Union presidency the election he won.
"2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election"
She would refuse as it was obvious that he does not have the confidence of the House, but someone else does (i.e. the incoming leader).
It's the sycophantic way some people can't see the fault in his stars that ignites the fury in me, even more than the clot himself: the Nadine Dorries wonderstruck look, like a female bird of paradise entranced by a male bird's dance. I expect it is partly because he has a famously huge penis.
Once you see through the magician's sleight of hand, you realise that there's nothing beneath. A song and dance showman who steps forward night after night to trip the light fantastic.
And with that dizzying mixture of metaphors I bid you all g'day.
"ignites the fury in me"
I think you may need to calm down a little.
I could pose it the other way as well: far too many people are utterly unwilling to see anything good about him; and anything the government gets right is not down to him in any way. And anyone pointing out that he has got something right become seen as fans of his, however much they criticise other aspects.
Johnson is deeply flawed, but he is not the devil incarnate that some like to make him out to be.
Reserve your fury for the people who really deserve it - like people not wearing masks in shops.
I felt it in 2009 when Charles Clarke was trying to organise a letter to Gordon to urge him to stand down - I declined, because the disruptive effect was obvious and the prospective benefit of an unknown replacement was intangible.
Mr. Taz, casting has, (Whitaker aside), generally been good, it's the writing that's fallen off a cliff. Damned shame for Capaldi, as grumpy older Doctor was exactly the sort I wanted but I couldn't stand the writing.
I've mentioned this before. William Hartnell, the very model of a grumpy old doctor, appeared in the first episode of DW on the Saturday between the assassination of JFK the day before and the murder of LHO the day after. What a weekend.
Peter Davison was very much intended to be played as an older man in a young man’s body but the variability of the writing and the characterisation hindered that.
Hartnell was really good. His era is chronically underrated, mainly because large chunks of it are only available as audio or recon or a few poorly made cartoons.
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
Expectations management is always big with locals and 12 years into government youd expect plenty of losses, but if the MPs are wobbling then they may not be as able to bear it as they otherwise would. The fines have been well timed in that regard.
Apparently there is a Russian phrase that quantity has a quality all of its own. Easy to sniff at that but with all the talk about he fancy weaponry we are sending - starstreak, caeser etc - I just hope there is enough of them. I also hope that behind the scenes there has been some training going on in how to use them.
Some of the wording of reports of weapon shipments have suggested that we aren't hearing about some of them until they're in Ukrainian units trained to use them. I think a lot has been happening behind the scenes since the Russian retreat from Kyiv, and the scale of Russian atrocities against civilians became clear.
I think it's convinced more Western leaders that it's not enough to prevent a Russian victory, they have to help Ukraine inflict defeat upon Russia, and as soon as possible.
Comments
Macron is sending CAESAR self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine - 12 of them.
The French military has been wanting upgrade their existing ones, and are buying an improved version currently.
- Am I right in saying that this is the first time that Ukraine has been sent heavy weapons that are Western standard (155mm vs 152mm)?
- An artillery system for the French Army is called CAESAR?
Major came to power, saw the enormous damage done by the Poll Tax and killed it. Remember that the Poll Tax was a keystone of the 1987 manifesto which saw them win a 100 majority and a third term. But it had to be killed quickly.
This time, the Poll Tax is Brexit. They can't say "done deal" because it hasn't delivered any of its promises. We have more red tape not less. We have higher costs not lower. We have less trade opportunities not more. We have sovereignty but somehow can't control our borders the way non-sovereign EU countries can. So how do you claim done deal when things have got worse not better as promised?
The new leader will have a binary choice. Keep chasing the Brexit pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, or draw a line. "THIS IS BREXIT" and a settlement that removes much of the red tape and cost but accepts there is no shiny future will piss off the diehards, but most people will say "ok" especially if the agenda moves on to the things that matter now like the cost of living.
You will, very soon, be able to correctly answer the question - "Which is more valuable - a full nights sleep, or a bar of gold?" :-)
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507077215764481?t=_5yWXhHkvEfmo_i4euBmYQ&s=19
You sir may have no problem supporting lies and criminality and malfeasance and impropriety. But apparently you are starting to look like a minority in your own party. And when he goes and you reverse ferret and try to claim you always though he was a wrong'un, we will be here to point to the enormous plank sticking out of your eye.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/4/14/whats-in-the-latest-us-military-package-for-ukraine
There's also a list floating about of the stuff US intends to send: there's rather a lot...
If we assume Johnson would now be toast if it weren't for the Ukraine war one wonders whether it is in his interest for the war to end? His comment about Putin having a 'huge' army seemed odd. If he has such an army one wonders why it isn't in Ukraine. We all need to guard against complacency and make sure the weapons keep going into Ukraine and Europe properly reduces its usage of Russian oil and gas. But Johnson shouldn't be talking up the threat from Putin as a way for him to stay in power.
Try and abandon Brexit and the Tories would collapse from the 34% they are now on and hung parliament territory back to the 1997 landslide defeat Major led them to, with some Tories going Referendum Party or the Spring 2019 polling disaster they were under May of only 20 to 25% of the vote as the Brexit Party surged under Farage. So Farage would return to lead Reform UK again who would also surge at Tiry expense if Boris was replaced by a Remainer as leader who tried to reverse Brexit. It would be Canada 1993 style annihilation for the Tories
What you seemed to be saying was that he would either try to call an election, or refuse to recommend the new leader as PM. Is that correct?
Neither are realistic for the simple reason that he could then just be expelled from the party for ignoring its rules, and he would not have a government anyway.
The economy might be trickier.
Yes, RTD has the perfect opportunity, he needs to get the casting right for the lead but I have every confidence he will.
Here's the state of the British 155mm capability.
https://twitter.com/FTusa284/status/1509875351207526406
Where did the Americans find a stock of towed artillery?
The Community Charge was a flagship policy in the 1987 manifesto. But it was one ship- once it was rightly scuttled, there was still a decent fleet left.
Brexit is the entire navy for this government, including all the land bases that are called HMS despite not being ships.
Having gone for maximal Brexit, the U-turn to soften it will be so huge that it can only be done in opposition. Even though it's sensible thing to do.
Ironically, the only man with the chutzpah to get away with it is the incumbent PM, and he's fatally wounded. Just not dead yet. (Or possibly he is dead but hasn't noticed.)
They are however particularly stupid statements for a PM to make publically at the present time. They don't seem to have gone down well in Ukraine.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1517507082806861829?t=CNyOn6Kjcuq9Uxh9q7AoAg&s=19
The new models are the M777 ("M-triple 7" in cannon-cocker speak).
A great system.
Half the weight of the M198, due to titanium construction. Uses a digital fire-control system that provides navigation, pointing & self-location.
Fires 14-40 km, depending on round. 3/ https://t.co/CmQ7DcsWJd
Once the Tory party abandons Brexit Farage is fucked (again) and this time they have the benefit of real numbers.
Brexit really did fuck the economy. And didn't fix immigration.
Many congratulations to you both and of course the little one
All the Lib Dem waverers are back on board. BINO can be sold so easily as Brexit is Brexit, we retain our "sovereignty" and there are enough Baristas in Costas to make you that Latte, if the Tory headbangers STFU.
The RedWall don't understand what Brexit was supposed to be anyway, because nobody understands what it was for, it was all things to all voters.
The RedWall might not like Hunt not only because he has a form sheet of prior incompetence as long as your arm but because he is not Boris Johnson. You just have to take your chances on everyone else being so relieved he is not Boris Johnson, and reality and calm resuming in Downing Street.
There's a lot of that sort of thing in everyday Parliamentary affairs, as MPs seek to have their concerns met and often make some headway, and if there isn't a really strong reason to switch the allure of just carrying on and hoping for the best is pretty strong. I felt it in 2009 when Charles Clarke was trying to organise a letter to Gordon to urge him to stand down - I declined, because the disruptive effect was obvious and the prospective benefit of an unknown replacement was intangible.
MP refuses to say whether PM should resign if he's found to have misled parliament https://twitter.com/RosieisaHolt/status/1517503987662086144/video/1
It would lead to Tory defeat worse than 1997 and probably end up with Farage Leader of the Opposition to a PM Starmer elected by a landslide. It would be Canada 1993 or Pecresse 2022 style annihilation for the Tories.
No surprise you and the left therefore want the Tories to abandon Brexit as it suits your agenda
Putin could grind this on for years as he cares nothing for the loss of young men's lives. Whether his economy can stand it is a moot question.
Its the Existential Sport that I rather fancy. Competitive Gauloise smoking?
She has been parodying a witless Tory backbencher since Covid.
It would be a nightmare for a few weeks.
There would be very little point in the Tories going through the agonies of overthrowing a leader only to have the next one tainted with the same brush.
This is going to be a fantastic year for Ukraine.
Farage is over, as is Reform UK whoever they are, and you are turning yourself into a one person ex conservative promoting a cult that is not only as bad as Corbyn, but also heading the same way
The Conservative Party have to jettison the Faragists and make sensible Brexit work, namely sell BINO as real Brexit and reset to their one nation, internationalist, feudal Tory base. A Heathite/McMillanist Conservative Party that every genuine patriot can support is your way forward.
The RedWall Brexiteers hate Labour anyway they will go full on Faragist, or more likely go back to not voting at all.
Time to get back to a character spreading love and happiness through the galaxy. Fighting evil with a smile on his/her face and a boiling fury inside.
And if the doctor woke up and reported a weird dream in the style of Bobby Ewing, I’d shed no tears...
Numbers are not on the Russian side anymore. The famed Donbas offensive seems to have stalled, the question is whether it grinds on as a stalemate, or whether Ukraine forces a further retreat.
Abandon Brexit and the Tories would head for the 5% Pecresse got in France this month or the 9% they got in the 2019 European elections or the 2 seats the Tories got in Canada in 1993. Farage would end up Leader of the Opposition to PM Starmer
My post was to illustrate the nuance of everyday Parliamentary life. Not everything goes wrong at once, and there are always reasons to wait a month while issue X is sorted, then another month for issue Y, and so on. Actually changing leader is a big deal - it may happen, but if Johnson manages a few quiet weeks after the local elections (e.g. no new fines and Sue Gray writing in formal civil service terms that don't lend themselves to headlines) he may well see it through.
As for "very few Tories were committed to the poll tax" it was front and centre in the 1987 manifesto which delivered Thatcher a larger majority than Johnson. You always talk about the 2019 manifesto as if the pledges are forged in iron, yet dismiss the 1987 one for the reverse reason.
Your hypocrisy really is endless.
Upset Tory MPs may not feel there are any easy choices, but they asked to be able to take difficult choices for us. Stand up or shut up.
It is just scene after scene of MTG saying she never said "The Dems are all blood sucking traitors" and then counsel presenting exhibit X which is video of MTG saying "The Dems are all blood sucking traitors".
Again, and again and again.
Obviously she is going to win this but it is all bleakly hilarious
And so it is with all those associated with government at the moment. With brexit done, Tory MPs look to one main thing - keeping their seats. Many people (not me) think a Labour majority is thinkable. That's 126 or so Tory MPs looking at Wakefield with interest.
While the membership of the party is plainly bonkers, the MPs have a self interest to protect. They will have to reduce to two candidates neither of whom is populist right, and neither currently in government - because the MPs can't risk them winning the run off.
Which is why Hunt (I have been on him for months) and Tugendhat are current favourites.
Am I wrong to assume this meant Big Dog got another, or perhaps, multiple, fines this week?
It would explain a fair bit.
She would refuse as it was obvious that he does not have the confidence of the House, but someone else does (i.e. the incoming leader).
Hartnell was really good. His era is chronically underrated, mainly because large chunks of it are only available as audio or recon or a few poorly made cartoons.
Downstream movies?
Tennis pitches?
I think it's convinced more Western leaders that it's not enough to prevent a Russian victory, they have to help Ukraine inflict defeat upon Russia, and as soon as possible.
My point was you can imagine a real Tory MP saying exactly those words.
At what point does parody become reportage...
Meanwhile...
A Ukrainian woman and her three-year-old son, who have been sponsored by a UK family, have had to return to Ukraine due to visa delays
The sponsor’s MP, @elliereeves, tells @johnjohnstonmi the hold up meant they lost temporary accommodation in Poland https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/ukrainian-refugees-facing-homelessness-are-abandoning-the-uks-shambolic-visa-scheme