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Hunt moves to favourite in next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com
Hunt moves to favourite in next CON leader betting – politicalbetting.com
Johnson’s position as PM is looking increasingly precarious there’s been a fair bit of betting activity on the next CON leader market.
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Check out the district's wiki page:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reedy_Creek_Improvement_District
EDIT - Refuse as matter of principle to be first, until Mickey Mouse is given his day in kangaroo court.
I don't think so!
Hunt was minister overseeing the Olympics, and Boris was Mayor overseeing the Olympics.
If they do replace Boris then I suspect the tories will lurch further to the right, which will take them out of power for even longer.
Ben Wallace would be William Hague all over again.
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I still don't underestimate Johnson's capacity to try and ride this out. He might even doing something truly escalatory in Ukraine as a last resort to save his own skin. But the more Boris Johnson stays, the more of a liability he becomes to them.
The real killer for Johnson's hopes is the way Labour now lead on the economy. This is the editorial in today's i: https://inews.co.uk/opinion/editor/boris-johnson-is-spooked-by-polls-showing-the-tories-are-no-longer-trusted-on-the-economy-1590813
The tories have stuffed up. Splurging money on the country's credit card (typical Johnson), in totally unaccountable ways whilst raising the cost of living through higher taxation. Economically Boris Johnson has behaved like a profligate Socialist.
Which is designed to allow Disney and the State of Florida to find a compromise. De Santis doesn't really give a shit about Disney, and certainly doesn't want to assume $1.5bn of debt. But he does want a victory.
At some point in the next year and a bit, it will all be forgotten.
Turns out I have an old bet at 19 (tipped by Mr. Royale) on Hunt, so I wouldn't be disappointed if he got the gig. Don't believe he will, though.
https://twitter.com/AlexLuck9/status/1517564363598876672
It appears German industry has on Thursday formally lodged a request for approval to export 100 Marder IFV with the German Ministry for Economic Affairs, which submitted it to the security committee of the German government (paywalled article)...
Scholz of course can simply deny the request, so this move by industry seems mostly aimed at putting the government in Berlin further on the (public) spot for objecting to the transfer of armored vehicles.
I have a dilemma at the moment. I'm green on Macron on anything above 55%. I've been offered a cash-out which will basically double my stakes.
But should I be greedy and hold on in case he sneaks over 60%? If he does, I win big. There's always the chance he gets under 55% in which case I win zilch.
Decisions decisions.
p.s. a deluge of biblical proportions across some of France tomorrow. No idea if and how that might affect things though?
Personally, I'd hold on.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/04/imola-pre-qualifyingsprint-race.html
Qualifying was comical, but it did vindicate my decision early on to ensure I had a book to read in case of red flags.
On topic, our PM doesn't 'do' leaving gracefully; I'm quite sure he won't take any hints and resign, and so he'll have to be forced out.
… Toto Wolff revealed that George Russell’s Mercedes suffered so severely from porpoising on the straight at Imola in practice that it broke a floor stay designed to increase the rigidity of the car’s floor.
Mercedes have struggled most visibly from the bouncing phenomenon experienced by 2022 ground effect F1 cars and are still developing solutions to the problem.
“We had George bouncing so much that he broke the stay, actually, on the floor,” Wolff explained to Sky. “You can’t drive here, you have to lift on the straight.”
Asked how the effect would impact on drivers Russell and Lewis Hamilton physically, Wolff said he did not know. “I don’t know, but I think they are trained,” he said.
“I have never experienced in my life bouncing like this, but it’s clearly not drive-able.”…
x
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/04/22/exclusive-france-germany-evaded-arms-embargo-sell-weapons-russia/ (£££)
1) Boris is toast, and
2) Watch Hunt.
Glad to see there is now some momentum behind Hunt who is the obvious candidate when you decide you need to erase
Chibnall-era WhoBoris.According to the last two polls, the Tories are just 6 points behind. Obviously Tory performance at the locals will be watched closely but my personal thinking is that they will outperform expectations especially here in London.
What's keeping Tory support up? It's Brexit and all its associated wrapping. The Tories need to keep Brexit as a live issue - the cultists will fall into line if that's the case.
I know Boris Johnson's an incompetent, short-sighted, self-obsessed buffoon unworthy of high office and a disgrace to the nation, but he's not as bad as Chibnall's buggering up for Doctor Who lore.
On the plus side, very glad I emotionally disengaged from the show a while ago. As a child, it was one of my favourites.
One former cabinet minister said: "A lot of people feel trapped in a nightmare that doesn’t end and they don’t see how it can."
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/boris-johnson-partygate-rishi-sunak_uk_62611d56e4b0dc5d7b6aaf54
I did post this last Sunday.
You can get odds of around 9/1 on Hunt, I’m on odds of around 20/1 but I still think there’s a smidgen of value at 9/1 but I expect some of you will disagree.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2022/04/17/is-rishi-sunak-the-new-theresa-may/
So they could do it. And they could still pull off a win.
Why don't they? Are they held under some spell? Mesmerised by Boris? Terrified of his sting? In thrall to the fatheaded journalists at the Mail and Express?
Don't they realise that they could yet win the next GE if they boot out the man who is now a liability? The current state of the polls is very similar to autumn 1990 in the run up to Thatcher's removal: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_1992_United_Kingdom_general_election#1990
If this were industry Boris would have been kicked out months ago. Maybe that's the source of the problem: lots of these MPs would never cut it in the real world of business.
What they need to do is think like BoZo.
Seize the opportunity of Bozexit. Head for the sunlit uplands of a post BoZo World, freed from the shackles of his incompetence and mendacity.
Take Back Control...
2) VoNC
3) Pretty much anyone who isn't Rees-Mogg, Dorries, Truss, Raab or Patel would be better.
Happy to help.
Nadine Dorries has done it again.
The culture secretary prompted ridicule after featuring in a fellow Tory MP’s TikTok to explain her job.
But her phrasing raised a few quizzical eyebrows, and lent weight to the suggestion she struggles to fully grasp her brief.
In the clip shared by Luke Evans, she says the department of culture, media and sport is responsible for broadband, which means “you can downstream your movies” at home. People typically download movies.
One of her goals is to “make the internet in the UK the safest internet in the world”. The internet doesn’t really have national boundaries.
Dorries also fronts the Whitehall department in charge of sport, which involves “tennis pitches” (they’re usually referred to as courts), which is one of the places where you can “exercise your sports”.
Not bad for 42 seconds of work.
https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/nadine-dorries-downstream-your-movies_uk_6262d753e4b0dc52f4965119
No wonder Nadine Dorries is such an enthusiastic supporter of Boris Johnson, she is so dense that light bends around her.
1. VONC is called. Johnson won't just go.
2. VONC succeeds; Johnson loses, goes to HMQ and asks for an election
3. VONC fails; Johnson purges one or two ringleaders
4. VONC isn't called; ringleaders purged.
Purge: lose Whip at least for a while. 'Word gets out' that association with them is also toxic.
If he loses a VONC of his MPs he's out.
He’s a walking disaster area with slick Pr that has caused collective amnesia in those afflicted with BDS. If he’s the answer then you’re asking the wrong question.
Its very simple. Thursday saw the complete and final collapse of "just bluster your way through". The line of amoral Tory MPs and ministers babbling their way through the latest version of Save Big Dog is of the past. A few will still pledge loyalty to
ChibnallBoris but most accept the gig is up.Less than 2 weeks now to the local elections. A pocket of Tory resistance here and there won't remove the clear message that losing a pile of councillors and some councils will deliver to MPs. We hear that post-dated letters to Mrs Brady are already written.
And then the Met tell us how many more FPNs he has been served. Though we may get double bubble as these apparently are going to be unofficially leaked during the campaign as well. Then we get the unredacted Sue Grey report. Then we get the shame of a sitting PM being torn apart by the Privileges Committee.
And I do mean torn apart. Don't worry about the Tory majority. The notion that they would try and bluster their way through this ended on Thursday. The weight of evidence will be simply crushing. The Big Dog himself may continue to bluster. But its lonely at the top and more so when the moves against you are clearly happening and support is simply drifting away in preparation for the imminent regime change.
The BBC funding does need changing imho. That's not a reason to keep in post the worst prime minister many of us can remember.
He has two things going for him. Despite all that Boris has a special pull with a certain group of electors. Secondly there is no one senior on the Tory benches he hasn’t damaged in some way.
So for all his travails, many Tory MPs will view him as a vote winner regardless of the local elections.
As for 'purging the ringleaders,' the process is anonymous. Sure, some have stuck their necks out publicly, but by trying to wreak revenge on them he would quickly guarantee that he would be toppled one way or another. It's why May didn't remove the whip from him, although with hindsight that was an error on her part.
But Facebook is the last place you should turn to for a true litmus test, closely followed by Mumsnet and Twitter.
It does take time for the penny to drop.
Which would be fine by me. If he leads them into the next General Election they will get hammered. And between now and then won't be pretty. This last week was shambolic.
Hope mother and child are okay after all of that. And life gets a little different from now on...
1 It could be that only Boris holds the coalition together. Anyone else causes either the Faragists to drift back to RefUK (of Hunt wins) or the remaining centrists to go to the Lib Dems (if it's, say, Patel). Possible exceptions are Truss and Gove.
2. It could be that, while Brexit is done, it's still in peril. Some Conservatives would be happy with a start of a drift back to BEANO, as long as we stay formally out of the political system, but many wouldn't.
3. There is a tidal wave of sewage about to hit the government, and it would be better for Boris to take the brunt of it. Then let someone relatively clean take over. That would argue for a summer '23 leadership election and a spring '24 GE, because that's the earliest the economy comes right.
4. Boris hasn't failed enough yet. In the same way that many Tories held a flame for Maggie long after 1990, a cult of Bros could warp the party for decades to come.
5. There's nobody better, because Boris has engineered it that way. Hence the non-crazy talk of Hunt and Tughendhat.
None of this outweighs Johnson being a disaster for the party and country who should have never been let in and certainly shouldn't kept on, but I can see why people might want it to be plausible. Because:
6. Big Dog has a scary reputation. Shoot and miss, and it's off to the outer darkness with you.
I quite liked 'Dr Who' when it first appeared. but I lost interest when William Hartnell left. I realised then it was only a children's programme.
As for BoJo, he's the same, but he does ignite fury in some. Get real, people, he's not the spawn of Satan, not worse than Pol Pot, Hitler, or Mao. But he is a very naughty boy.
If RTD has the nerve to do it there's a perfect retcon opportunity, though. The Master's a known liar and the Matrix is just a fancy computer, so you could obviously falsify nonsense in it.
That being said, the overblown hero-worship of the Doctor has existed in all of New Who, (RTD got the ball rolling with the Time War, which pointlessly removed the Time Lords and made it so excuses were necessary to constantly reintroduce the daleks).
GOP state Govenors have shown they are willing to inflict massive economic damage on their states in their quest for culture war wins (see Abbot's truck inspections in Texas).
Until the 2024 GOP Nominee process is underway expect more and more unhinged GOP Gov policies.
If Channel 4 had commissioned it as a remake of Treasure Hunt (with Penny Mordaunt in the Anneka Rice role), they wouldn't have been threatened with privatisation.
And then they go back to their constituency for the weekend and we reset again. I presume because they find out that the Johnson cult is alive and well amongst their activists.
2) I suppose that might be true even if it's wrong, because they are obsessives after all.
3) He will anyway, but more to the point, somebody else might be seen to be doing something about it. Johnson has lost whatever passed for his mind and the government is drifting.
4) If they think that, let's hope the Tories come third at the next election. At least Thatcher was a serious politician with remarkable talent and a track record of achievement, not a buffoon who has failed disastrously in every role he's ever held.
5) Since anyone would be better with the few exceptions I've noted, any member of the cult who thinks otherwise should be hurriedly deselected on the grounds of insanity.
6) All the more reason to get rid of him before the destruction becomes irreversible.
So if your statements on the views of the cult are correct, we have a problem far greater than Johnson. Which may well be true, of course.
Once you see through the magician's sleight of hand, you realise that there's nothing beneath. A song and dance showman who steps forward night after night to trip the light fantastic.
And with that dizzying mixture of metaphors I bid you all g'day.
A letter to the local Conservative Party Chair…. https://twitter.com/steam_simon/status/1517424319651061761/photo/1
He's Toast.
The threat [of more FPNs] comes as Mr Johnson is gearing up for a new Brexit fight in an attempt to reset his premiership following the fallout from his first “partygate” fine. These plans may be overshadowed by any further police sanction.
The Prime Minister is set to announce a new bill in the Queen’s Speech on May 10 which will hand ministers powers to overrule parts of the Northern Ireland Protocol, which has governed customs arrangements between Great Britain and the province since Brexit.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/09/15/100-government-buildings-close-civil-servants-shun-return-office/ (£££)
Hmm. May the 10th. There's a date with historical resonances.
I think you may need to calm down a little.
I could pose it the other way as well: far too many people are utterly unwilling to see anything good about him; and anything the government gets right is not down to him in any way. And anyone pointing out that he has got something right become seen as fans of his, however much they criticise other aspects.
Johnson is deeply flawed, but he is not the devil incarnate that some like to make him out to be.
Reserve your fury for the people who really deserve it - like people not wearing masks in shops.
I don't think some on here realise how furious people are and not just furious but also hurt.
We went through hell during those lockdowns. To think that tosser was partying during our suffering is unbelievable.
And as for 'that' picture of The Queen in Westminster Abbey ...
"Our conservative local councillor is wonderful, kind and helpful. What I can't understand is why he still attaches himself to a party that is without shame. He deserves my vote but he will not be getting it."
This is the damage we can expect a week on Thursday. Remember that Tory voters don't have to vote against the party to do the damage, just simply stay at home in protest.
You will.
And BTW, snipping what I said like that feels a little naughty, as you removed some context.
"Please don't sack me"
Oh, wait...
But IMO Brexit is the biggest problem the Conservatives face. It seems to still be a major factor within the party, and that means they're more likely to pick one of the hardliners that will not resonate with the wider public. The Conservative Party should see Brexit as a done deal, and get on with everything else that faces the country. Especially as Europe as a whole is not faced by the spectre of a real evil to the east.
Johnson is however a self-absorbed, self-serving Charlatan whose only motivation, it would seem, is personal aggrandisement at the expense of everyone and everything else.
This would be fine if we lived in Russia, but we don't.
He is toast.
The only question is how burned the toast will be when it finally comes out the toaster and gets binned. And how long it will take to get the toaster working again.
https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2022/04/our-cabinet-league-table-sunak-plunges-to-third-from-bottom.html
I would also not be quite so dismissive of Boris, he is still the greatest Tory election winner since Thatcher and by far the most charismatic figure in UK politics today and on Ukraine he is a big figure on the world stage. Unless Labour build a really big poll lead and the Tories are trounced in the local elections, Tory MPs will be reluctant to remove him