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What’s this doing to Johnson’s survival chances? – politicalbetting.com

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  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    Although I wonder whether it was wise for the Archbishop of Canterbury to get involved, I “love” that the PM has now accused him of being soft on Putin.

    Boris can’t really help himself, can he.

    Is there anything the archbishop isn't soft on apart from maybe actresses?
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    pb seems to be on the blink
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    pb seems to be on the blink

    They banned all left wingers and tory posters so its just me and thee left
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,485
    I’m here
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    I’m here

    obviously they missed some nods
  • I blame Putin!
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    I blame Putin!

    Vladimir Putin was once a voice actor and played tiny clanger btw
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Interview with an anonymous European official:

    @shashj
    European official: "we’ll see a stalemate in four to six months as Russian troops control the Luhansk region, a part of the Donbas, and a small land bridge...By the fall, both Russia and Ukraine might agree to comprehensive negotiations"


    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1516509561150189576
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    Interview with an anonymous European official:

    @shashj
    European official: "we’ll see a stalemate in four to six months as Russian troops control the Luhansk region, a part of the Donbas, and a small land bridge...By the fall, both Russia and Ukraine might agree to comprehensive negotiations"


    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1516509561150189576

    Holy hell he expects it to last another 6 months....well I guess with all that european funding for putins war machine it might do.
  • BartholomewRobertsBartholomewRoberts Posts: 21,971
    edited April 2022
    Pagan2 said:

    Interview with an anonymous European official:

    @shashj
    European official: "we’ll see a stalemate in four to six months as Russian troops control the Luhansk region, a part of the Donbas, and a small land bridge...By the fall, both Russia and Ukraine might agree to comprehensive negotiations"


    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1516509561150189576

    Holy hell he expects it to last another 6 months....well I guess with all that european funding for putins war machine it might do.
    Russia = Manchester United

    With apologies to Manchester United ...
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    Pagan2 said:

    Interview with an anonymous European official:

    @shashj
    European official: "we’ll see a stalemate in four to six months as Russian troops control the Luhansk region, a part of the Donbas, and a small land bridge...By the fall, both Russia and Ukraine might agree to comprehensive negotiations"


    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1516509561150189576

    Holy hell he expects it to last another 6 months....well I guess with all that european funding for putins war machine it might do.
    Russia = Manchester United
    Not being a football fan myself you might possibly have to explain that...
  • Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Interview with an anonymous European official:

    @shashj
    European official: "we’ll see a stalemate in four to six months as Russian troops control the Luhansk region, a part of the Donbas, and a small land bridge...By the fall, both Russia and Ukraine might agree to comprehensive negotiations"


    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1516509561150189576

    Holy hell he expects it to last another 6 months....well I guess with all that european funding for putins war machine it might do.
    Russia = Manchester United
    Not being a football fan myself you might possibly have to explain that...
    They just got hammered 4-0, and they're supposed to be a world class one of the best in the world clubs but are distinctly ordinary and getting torn apart this year.

    Badly managed and appallingly led for the past couple of decades (since the Glazers took over) has left them a pale shadow of their former selves that are getting exposed now. Ring any bells?
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    Pagan2 said:

    Pagan2 said:

    Interview with an anonymous European official:

    @shashj
    European official: "we’ll see a stalemate in four to six months as Russian troops control the Luhansk region, a part of the Donbas, and a small land bridge...By the fall, both Russia and Ukraine might agree to comprehensive negotiations"


    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1516509561150189576

    Holy hell he expects it to last another 6 months....well I guess with all that european funding for putins war machine it might do.
    Russia = Manchester United
    Not being a football fan myself you might possibly have to explain that...
    They just got hammered 4-0, and they're supposed to be a world class one of the best in the world clubs but are distinctly ordinary and getting torn apart this year.

    Badly managed and appallingly led for the past couple of decades (since the Glazers took over) has left them a pale shadow of their former selves that are getting exposed now. Ring any bells?
    Ah I see so like all our political parties I guess
  • My favourite stat from tonight.

    David de Gea has conceded four times as many Premier League goals at Anfield in 2022 as Alisson.

    https://twitter.com/RichJolly/status/1516521322154799105
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Just catching up.



    Piers Morgan
    @piersmorgan
    This was devastating.
    Starmer’s most powerful & effective moment as Labour leader. 👇👇


    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1516480448544874502
  • Then again.

    Manchester United have conceded more league goals against Liverpool this season than they did in 2001/02, 2002/03, 2003/04, 2004/05, 2005/06, 2006/07 and 2007/08 combined.

    https://twitter.com/danielstorey85/status/1516523880252428295
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 18,355

    Interview with an anonymous European official:

    @shashj
    European official: "we’ll see a stalemate in four to six months as Russian troops control the Luhansk region, a part of the Donbas, and a small land bridge...By the fall, both Russia and Ukraine might agree to comprehensive negotiations"


    https://twitter.com/shashj/status/1516509561150189576

    I'd guess this is why the Ukrainians are after deliveries of heavy weaponry now. They want to be in a position to launch successful counter-attacks after blunting the Russian offensive in the Donbas, so that they can avoid the prospect of being stuck in a stalemate with another slice of their territory and citizenry controlled by Putin.

    I think there are a lot of people in the West who are scared of what Putin might do if Russia faces a complete military defeat in Ukraine, as opposed to a failure to achieve its maximalist objectives, and so are attempting to calibrate the support provided to Ukraine to aim for an outcome where the Ukrainian state survives, but Putin achieves enough of a victory not to use nuclear weapons out of desperation.
  • Liverpool are not going to win the tetralogy but I'm absolutely loving this season.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    Just catching up.



    Piers Morgan
    @piersmorgan
    This was devastating.
    Starmer’s most powerful & effective moment as Labour leader. 👇👇


    https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1516480448544874502

    Did he tell us in what way the labour party would be better? Somehow I doubt that I would watch the clip but he is to speeches that keep you on the edge of your seat the same as plaice are to competitive bicycling
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,553
    The main site isn't working for me. I had to come on Vanilla to view the comments. Is this happening with anyone else?
  • Then again.

    Manchester United have conceded more league goals against Liverpool this season than they did in 2001/02, 2002/03, 2003/04, 2004/05, 2005/06, 2006/07 and 2007/08 combined.

    https://twitter.com/danielstorey85/status/1516523880252428295

    Wow that's an incredible stat, and Liverpool won some of those games in that period too.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Andy_JS said:

    The main site isn't working for me. I had to come on Vanilla to view the comments. Is this happening with anyone else?

    Yep.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,288
    Andy_JS said:

    The main site isn't working for me. I had to come on Vanilla to view the comments. Is this happening with anyone else?

    Yes.
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 3,883
    Andy_JS said:

    The main site isn't working for me. I had to come on Vanilla to view the comments. Is this happening with anyone else?

    yes, i suspect this is why its so quiet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    ...


  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited April 2022

    Although I wonder whether it was wise for the Archbishop of Canterbury to get involved, I “love” that the PM has now accused him of being soft on Putin.

    Boris can’t really help himself, can he.

    Boris is of course a Roman Catholic, the principal leader of his church is the Pope not Welby.

    I note though his C of E predecessor as PM Theresa May joined Welby in criticising the governments Rwanda asylum plans today in Parliament
  • Have to say that Manchester United player who came on tonight Hannibal looked very taste and had a decent bite to him.

    But I don't think he Cannae hack it at the top level.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Conor Burns can always be relied on by Tory whips to peddle Putin-level of utter bollocks about Johnson.

    Newsnight.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    HYUFD said:

    Although I wonder whether it was wise for the Archbishop of Canterbury to get involved, I “love” that the PM has now accused him of being soft on Putin.

    Boris can’t really help himself, can he.

    Boris is of course a Roman Catholic, the principal leader of his church is the Pope not Welby.

    I note though his C of E predecessor as PM Theresa May joined Welby in criticising the governments Rwanda asylum plans today in Parliament
    Do you think that the Archbishop of Canterbury has been soft on Putin, HYUFD?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,075
    (This is a repost of one this morning to catch the night shift. I'll give it some weeks before I repost it again: I won't test your patience)

    How to help Ukraine 20220419_0122

    1) Give the refugees money: Disasters Emergency Committee
    Web: https://www.dec.org.uk/how-you-can-help
    By phone: call 0370 60 60 900.
    By post: make your donation payable to the DEC Ukraine Humanitarian Appeal, PO Box 999, London EC3A 3AA. The form is here: https://www.dec.org.uk/sites/default/files/GetInvolved/postal_donation_form.pdf
    By paypal, card, bank transfer etc: see https://www.dec.org.uk/how-you-can-help

    2) Give the refugees money: British Red Cross
    Web: https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/ukraine-crisis-appeal
    By phone: 0300 023 0820
    By post: https://static.redcross.org.uk/-/media/BritishRedCross/Forms/Postal-donation-form-2021-May.ashx
    By paypal, card, bank transfer etc: see https://donate.redcross.org.uk/appeal/ukraine-crisis-appeal
    Note: @MaxPB and others point out that the BRC (and DEC?) treat Russian and Ukranian refugees equally. If you don't want that, try one of the ones below

    3) Fight alongside them: Ukraine International Legion
    Web: https://fightforua.org/ or https://theinternationallegion.org/
    See also: https://kyivindependent.com/national/to-combat-russia-ukraine-invites-foreign-fighters-heres-how-to-apply/
    See also: https://kyivindependent.com/national/want-to-help-ukraines-military-as-a-foreigner-heres-what-you-can-do/
    People who have done it IRL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iHrGd0BcLmA https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6_Azyen5cE
    Note: @Pulpstar points out that this option is highly dangerous and people should DYOR before joining.

    4) Give the Ukranian Armed Forces money: Come Back Alive
    Come Back Alive (Povertaysya Zhyvym) is a Kyiv-based charity working for the military in Ukraine. It provides defensive equipment (reconnaisance drones, body armor, thermal imagers, laptops, etc)
    Web: https://www.comebackalive.in.ua/
    By paypal, card, bank transfer etc: https://www.comebackalive.in.ua/donate

    5) Suggested by PBers
    @darkage: https://www.gofundme.com/f/delivering-emergency-supplies-to-ukraine
    @NorthofStoke: https://www.gofundme.com/f/helpukraine
  • Have to say that Manchester United player who came on tonight Hannibal looked very taste and had a decent bite to him.

    But I don't think he Cannae hack it at the top level.

    He was the only one who looked like he knew what it meant to be Liverpool v Man United, he had passion while the rest of his club just looked like they wanted to go for some chianti and fava beans.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    HYUFD said:

    Although I wonder whether it was wise for the Archbishop of Canterbury to get involved, I “love” that the PM has now accused him of being soft on Putin.

    Boris can’t really help himself, can he.

    Boris is of course a Roman Catholic, the principal leader of his church is the Pope not Welby.

    I note though his C of E predecessor as PM Theresa May joined Welby in criticising the governments Rwanda asylum plans today in Parliament
    Do you think that the Archbishop of Canterbury has been soft on Putin, HYUFD?
    No, not really.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,215
    edited April 2022
    HYUFD said:

    Although I wonder whether it was wise for the Archbishop of Canterbury to get involved, I “love” that the PM has now accused him of being soft on Putin.

    Boris can’t really help himself, can he.

    Boris is of course a Roman Catholic, the principal leader of his church is the Pope not Welby.

    I note though his C of E predecessor as PM Theresa May joined Welby in criticising the governments Rwanda asylum plans today in Parliament
    Though, as a good Catholic, I am sure that the PM has taken to heart the Easter Vigil homily by the Archbishop of Westminster;

    We see more than an echo of the Exodus in the millions of people who move across the face of our earth, some fleeing violence, others poverty, or the effects of climate change. We see them exploited by people smugglers and by those who traffic them into modern slavery, crimes which we must combat. We know the huge challenges there are, internationally, in finding responses to this issue, responses that must match the desire to help with the limited resources on which there are so many calls. We pray for those whose aim each day is just to survive. And we pray that those who seek solutions do so with compassion, and with regard for the dignity which is innate to every human being. This week’s policy announcement simply lacks these qualities. The reflections of our Vigil this evening are not all comfortable.

    As for Boris, we don't know what he said behind those closed doors. But "he didn't tell off Putin" has strong cornered teenager vibes. (And it's pretty dishonest, given that Rev Oilwellby has described the invasion as "an act of great evil".)

    But hey, he's got away with it for tonight, and tied his stooges ever closer to him. After all, they will look really stupid if they ditch him now.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Andy_JS said:

    The main site isn't working for me. I had to come on Vanilla to view the comments. Is this happening with anyone else?

    I've had to do the same.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    Did it really not occur to anyone at OT that there just might be a reason why Ralf had not managed a big club before?

    I had to work tonight at a meeting. I was frankly relieved. Watching this lot play is just dispiriting. None of them seem to care.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586

    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image

    Some proportion of those this year will be for EU student who didn’t need a visa before, right? Still, it seems an encouraging trend.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    carnforth said:

    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image

    Some proportion of those this year will be for EU student who didn’t need a visa before, right? Still, it seems an encouraging trend.
    Ah, I see it only goes to 2019. So not relevant.
  • carnforth said:

    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image

    Some proportion of those this year will be for EU student who didn’t need a visa before, right? Still, it seems an encouraging trend.
    Not in 2019 it wouldn't, too early for that to be a factor.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871
    carnforth said:

    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image

    Some proportion of those this year will be for EU student who didn’t need a visa before, right? Still, it seems an encouraging trend.
    Weren't we told though leaving the EU would result in all those foreign students no longer wanting to study here....asking for a friend
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    Pagan2 said:

    carnforth said:

    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image

    Some proportion of those this year will be for EU student who didn’t need a visa before, right? Still, it seems an encouraging trend.
    Weren't we told though leaving the EU would result in all those foreign students no longer wanting to study here....asking for a friend
    No one wants to come to nasty brexit britain, innit? As if a 17 year old from GuangZhou gives a toss about brexit.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,812
    The trend has continued: https://monitor.icef.com/2021/12/uk-issues-record-number-of-study-visas-in-2021/#:~:text=The UK has broken a record in terms,more than for the year ending September 2020;

    2021 was an all time record which is truly remarkable given the effect of Covid. The previous record was in 2010.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image

    Some proportion of those this year will be for EU student who didn’t need a visa before, right? Still, it seems an encouraging trend.
    Ah, I see it only goes to 2019. So not relevant.
    EU students presumably didn’t need visas prior to formal Brexit, so this chart only tells us about ex-EU student numbers, which for the UK is going to be a partial view.

    Nevertheless, we see a significant displacement from the US thanks to Trump.
  • StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 8,243

    rcs1000 said:

    So I have spent the past few days “defending” the Rwanda policy to my friends, or at least refusing to condemn it outright.

    I see today that scheme is for men only?

    Presumably husbands will be separated from their wives; fathers from their children.

    Fuck right off.
    This is an abomination.

    I see too the IMF is predicting the UK will be slowest economy between 20 and 24 - essentially static on a per capita basis.

    We can’t stand another two years of this.
    The government needs to fall NOW.

    No no no! The only men coming to these shores are terrorists and scroungers. So off they go to Rwanda, The women and children get on these boats to claim asylum because being drowned in the channel is preferable to just claiming asylum in the oh yeah there is no legal way they can claim asylum.

    So yeah. Separate families it is. You're against that? Big wet blanket ye are.

    To be fair its not hard enough. Lets punish them further! Make them live on Canvey Island! Make them drink tapwater! Fly them out of Manchester Airport!
    You sick bastard.
    Mrs RP has a build. "Why fly them out at all? The queue at Manchester Airport is never-ending. They'll never escape"
    @Gardenwalker its focused on *single* men (I think between ages of 18-25 but not sure about that) - so prone economic migrants. Married men travelling with their family are exempt
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    A headline that has absolutely nothing to do with the actual text on front page:


  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image

    Some proportion of those this year will be for EU student who didn’t need a visa before, right? Still, it seems an encouraging trend.
    Ah, I see it only goes to 2019. So not relevant.
    EU students presumably didn’t need visas prior to formal Brexit, so this chart only tells us about ex-EU student numbers, which for the UK is going to be a partial view.

    Nevertheless, we see a significant displacement from the US thanks to Trump.
    Did trump legislate against them, or were they simply put off by him?
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    The thing about these graphs which does surprise is the spike after 2016 when conventional wisdom (and I think what I’ve read from some analysts) is that Theresa May and Nick Timothy cut down specifically on the student visa route.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image

    Some proportion of those this year will be for EU student who didn’t need a visa before, right? Still, it seems an encouraging trend.
    Ah, I see it only goes to 2019. So not relevant.
    EU students presumably didn’t need visas prior to formal Brexit, so this chart only tells us about ex-EU student numbers, which for the UK is going to be a partial view.

    Nevertheless, we see a significant displacement from the US thanks to Trump.
    Did trump legislate against them, or were they simply put off by him?
    Not an expert, but pretty sure there were visa restrictions.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298

    rcs1000 said:

    So I have spent the past few days “defending” the Rwanda policy to my friends, or at least refusing to condemn it outright.

    I see today that scheme is for men only?

    Presumably husbands will be separated from their wives; fathers from their children.

    Fuck right off.
    This is an abomination.

    I see too the IMF is predicting the UK will be slowest economy between 20 and 24 - essentially static on a per capita basis.

    We can’t stand another two years of this.
    The government needs to fall NOW.

    No no no! The only men coming to these shores are terrorists and scroungers. So off they go to Rwanda, The women and children get on these boats to claim asylum because being drowned in the channel is preferable to just claiming asylum in the oh yeah there is no legal way they can claim asylum.

    So yeah. Separate families it is. You're against that? Big wet blanket ye are.

    To be fair its not hard enough. Lets punish them further! Make them live on Canvey Island! Make them drink tapwater! Fly them out of Manchester Airport!
    You sick bastard.
    Mrs RP has a build. "Why fly them out at all? The queue at Manchester Airport is never-ending. They'll never escape"
    @Gardenwalker its focused on *single* men (I think between ages of 18-25 but not sure about that) - so prone economic migrants. Married men travelling with their family are exempt
    Yes, I got it wrong.
    Thank goodness, it would be barbaric to split families.
  • Pagan2Pagan2 Posts: 9,871

    The thing about these graphs which does surprise is the spike after 2016 when conventional wisdom (and I think what I’ve read from some analysts) is that Theresa May and Nick Timothy cut down specifically on the student visa route.

    Ah you made the mistake of believing what a politician says they are doing instead of looking at what they are actually doing. Not party political as they all do it.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    edited April 2022

    The thing about these graphs which does surprise is the spike after 2016 when conventional wisdom (and I think what I’ve read from some analysts) is that Theresa May and Nick Timothy cut down specifically on the student visa route.

    May reduced the time a graduate could work after their degree from 2 years to 4 months. It has since been increased to 2 years again, by the current government. I don’t think she formally limited numbers.

    She did have an odd bee in her bonnet about counting students in the immigration figures, which never seemed to make sense to me.

    Undergraduates can work 20 hours per week during their degree (those of us from Fen Poly often forget that one can work during a degree - we were banned from doing so, save for holidays. Maybe at some other places too?)
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Interesting mix of Queen & Boris on Daily Express front page.

    Considering contrast with her private-in-public morning, and his party-in-private then lie about it later.

    Doubt I'm alone in connecting those dots. But unlike me, most of the others are UK voters.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,714
    Farooq said:

    A headline that has absolutely nothing to do with the actual text on front page:


    MPs have just been off on holiday for a week, but 7 minutes of Starmer is getting in the way of essential business. Riiight.
    Pointing out that the PM is a liar and a cad and a scoundrel is.. erm a waste of time.

    Yeh right.

    Maybe I am being overly optimistic, but i doubt many actual buyers of the express agree that Johnson is not a lying scumbag unfit for office.



  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    SO what foul conspiracy is responsible for knocking PB off Vanilla (whatever that is)?

    > Putinist bots & trolls working overtime in the Kremlin?

    > Putinist bots & trolls working overtime in Conservative Campaign HQ?

    > extreme Woke elements enraged by PB anti-Woke warriors?

    > space aliens concerned Leon & Moonbeam are getting too close to the awful truth?

    > the list of potential, usual & unusual suspects is endless!

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    carnforth said:

    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image

    Some proportion of those this year will be for EU student who didn’t need a visa before, right? Still, it seems an encouraging trend.
    Ah, I see it only goes to 2019. So not relevant.
    EU students presumably didn’t need visas prior to formal Brexit, so this chart only tells us about ex-EU student numbers, which for the UK is going to be a partial view.

    Nevertheless, we see a significant displacement from the US thanks to Trump.
    Did trump legislate against them, or were they simply put off by him?
    He made it significantly harder for people from certain countries to get student visas.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    test(icle)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153
    carnforth said:

    The thing about these graphs which does surprise is the spike after 2016 when conventional wisdom (and I think what I’ve read from some analysts) is that Theresa May and Nick Timothy cut down specifically on the student visa route.

    May reduced the time a graduate could work after their degree from 2 years to 4 months. It has since been increased to 2 years again, by the current government. I don’t think she formally limited numbers.

    She did have an odd bee in her bonnet about counting students in the immigration figures, which never seemed to make sense to me.

    Undergraduates can work 20 hours per week during their degree (those of us from Fen Poly often forget that one can work during a degree - we were banned from doing so, save for holidays. Maybe at some other places too?)
    Eh?

    I was at Cambridge 92-95 and worked part time (and was allowed to work).
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2022
    test2
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    for what it's worth, still unable to access via Vanilla. Just here on Tutti-Frutti!
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Best wishes Mike from me also
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586
    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    The thing about these graphs which does surprise is the spike after 2016 when conventional wisdom (and I think what I’ve read from some analysts) is that Theresa May and Nick Timothy cut down specifically on the student visa route.

    May reduced the time a graduate could work after their degree from 2 years to 4 months. It has since been increased to 2 years again, by the current government. I don’t think she formally limited numbers.

    She did have an odd bee in her bonnet about counting students in the immigration figures, which never seemed to make sense to me.

    Undergraduates can work 20 hours per week during their degree (those of us from Fen Poly often forget that one can work during a degree - we were banned from doing so, save for holidays. Maybe at some other places too?)
    Eh?

    I was at Cambridge 92-95 and worked part time (and was allowed to work).
    https://www.varsity.co.uk/opinion/21950

    I think we were allowed to work for the university or college a few hours a week but no, you couldn’t just take a job at Robert Sayle. Matric 2001.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,664
    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    The thing about these graphs which does surprise is the spike after 2016 when conventional wisdom (and I think what I’ve read from some analysts) is that Theresa May and Nick Timothy cut down specifically on the student visa route.

    May reduced the time a graduate could work after their degree from 2 years to 4 months. It has since been increased to 2 years again, by the current government. I don’t think she formally limited numbers.

    She did have an odd bee in her bonnet about counting students in the immigration figures, which never seemed to make sense to me.

    Undergraduates can work 20 hours per week during their degree (those of us from Fen Poly often forget that one can work during a degree - we were banned from doing so, save for holidays. Maybe at some other places too?)
    Eh?

    I was at Cambridge 92-95 and worked part time (and was allowed to work).
    I recall that at Cotswold College you could only work if approval was granted by your college tutor. That may have changed these days.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Yours truly worked my way through Louisiana State University driving a Yellow Cab in Baton Rouge, three days a week. Usually scheduled classes each semester for Tuesday & Thursday.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586

    Yours truly worked my way through Louisiana State University driving a Yellow Cab in Baton Rouge, three days a week. Usually scheduled classes each semester for Tuesday & Thursday.

    From where do you get your interest in British politics? Did you live here at one point?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited April 2022
    Good question. Maybe the space aliens implanted anglophilic propaganda deep in my brain?

    Have always been interested in history & politics esp. elections, and UK's are highly accessible & reasonably intelligible for Americans.

    PROVIDED you do NOT expect us to comprehend cricket terms beyond "sticky wicket" and even then we really don't know a) what's a wicket?; b) what makes it sticky?; or c) why that's a bad thing?

    Addendum - have visited but never lived in UK
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    My mom was a bit of an Anglophile - her favorite movie as a teenager was "Mrs Miniver" - and I clearly remember watching on TV with her the declaration (or whatever it was) of Prince Charles as Prince of Wales at Caenarvon (apologies to the Welsh) Castle.
  • carnforthcarnforth Posts: 4,586

    Good question. Maybe the space aliens implanted anglophilic propaganda deep in my brain?

    Have always been interested in history & politics esp. elections, and UK's are highly accessible & reasonably intelligible for Americans.

    PROVIDED you do NOT expect us to comprehend cricket terms beyond "sticky wicket" and even then we really don't know a) what's a wicket?; b) what makes it sticky?; or c) why that's a bad thing?

    Addendum - have visited but never lived in UK

    Thanks. I often wonder to what extent the common language helps. Is my understanding of American or Canadian or Australian politics better because we speak a common language, or is my understanding of those things no better that my understanding of German or French or Italian politics, and I just *think* it’s better becuase of the common language. Somewhere in between probably…
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Personally think just about all politics are interesting.

    I mean, Nepal has a Maoist Centerist Party? How wild is that?

    And personally have soft spot for Vaderland Party of Liechtenstein. God knows why!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Don't think even Australians claim to understand Australian politics.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    Perennial French presidential candidate François Asselineau is alleging there is a private poll with Macron on 51% and Le Pen on 49%.

    https://twitter.com/UPR_Asselineau/status/1516517023479644175
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    Perennial French presidential candidate François Asselineau is alleging there is a private poll with Macron on 51% and Le Pen on 49%.

    https://twitter.com/UPR_Asselineau/status/1516517023479644175

    I think the polls showing Macron winning by eight to ten points should be very concerning to his team. He needs the narrative to be "neck and neck", because there are many voters who dislike her more than him... But would rather it was other voters that put him back in the Elysees.

  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,625
    rcs1000 said:

    Perennial French presidential candidate François Asselineau is alleging there is a private poll with Macron on 51% and Le Pen on 49%.

    https://twitter.com/UPR_Asselineau/status/1516517023479644175

    I think the polls showing Macron winning by eight to ten points should be very concerning to his team. He needs the narrative to be "neck and neck", because there are many voters who dislike her more than him... But would rather it was other voters that put him back in the Elysees.
    Melenchon has been stealing the limelight today by declaring that the legislative elections are really a 'third round' and asking people to 'elect' him as Prime Minister. He's telling his own supporters not to abstain and not to vote for Le Pen, but isn't endorsing Macron.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,153

    rcs1000 said:

    Perennial French presidential candidate François Asselineau is alleging there is a private poll with Macron on 51% and Le Pen on 49%.

    https://twitter.com/UPR_Asselineau/status/1516517023479644175

    I think the polls showing Macron winning by eight to ten points should be very concerning to his team. He needs the narrative to be "neck and neck", because there are many voters who dislike her more than him... But would rather it was other voters that put him back in the Elysees.
    Melenchon has been stealing the limelight today by declaring that the legislative elections are really a 'third round' and asking people to 'elect' him as Prime Minister. He's telling his own supporters not to abstain and not to vote for Le Pen, but isn't endorsing Macron.
    Not to abstain... Not to vote for Le Pen...

    That's about as close as you can come to endorsing someone without actually, you know, endorsing someone.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image

    Would like to see that updated to include Russia!

    (Normal site access knackered still, btw....)
  • Normal site still inaccessible.
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Bad luck @MikeSmithson

    Get well soon
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    Site works fine (both main site & vanilla) for me on safari/iphone
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070

    A headline that has absolutely nothing to do with the actual text on front page:


    Unless ‘What a waste of time’ applies to Boris.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Interesting thread.
    https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1516162543995162625
    To understand the logic behind Z-invasion you have to keep in mind that Russianness = normality. When you are Russified you just become normal. Z-invasion was planned as a gift or humanitarian operation. That's why Ukrainian resistance is so shocking. They don't want to be normal

    I’d be interested in @Dura_Ace ’s take on this:
    Arrogant it may sound, I think that in order to understand cultural context, you need to consume content in a language of the country. Those analysts who consume content in Russian typically view Z-war as inevitable. They saw it coming. But those who don't, are usually surprised
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Get well soon Mike!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    … and what the IT posters here make of this.
    You can plant an undetectable backdoor in any deep learning model
    https://twitter.com/neuroecology/status/1516565594283384837
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,787
    Good morning, everyone.

    Get well soon, Mr. Smithson.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Nigelb said:

    … and what the IT posters here make of this.
    You can plant an undetectable backdoor in any deep learning model
    https://twitter.com/neuroecology/status/1516565594283384837

    Yep, and it’s scary as hell. There’s a lot of ethical and regulatory issues with some of this stuff, which Western governments in particular are going to have to deal with in the next few years.

    What’s for sure, is that China is also far advanced working on the same stuff, but with a very different set of ethical boundaries.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,576
    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    … and what the IT posters here make of this.
    You can plant an undetectable backdoor in any deep learning model
    https://twitter.com/neuroecology/status/1516565594283384837

    Yep, and it’s scary as hell. There’s a lot of ethical and regulatory issues with some of this stuff, which Western governments in particular are going to have to deal with in the next few years.

    What’s for sure, is that China is also far advanced working on the same stuff, but with a very different set of ethical boundaries.
    Leon and others go on about the risks of AI taking over the world.

    The real risk is people trusting AI's that are not truly 'intelligent'. 'The computer says no' writ large.

    "But it cannot possibly fail! It's an AI!"
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Looks like this 'mystery' Hepatitis in children is turning up in more countries:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61157909
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    … and what the IT posters here make of this.
    You can plant an undetectable backdoor in any deep learning model
    https://twitter.com/neuroecology/status/1516565594283384837

    Yep, and it’s scary as hell. There’s a lot of ethical and regulatory issues with some of this stuff, which Western governments in particular are going to have to deal with in the next few years.

    What’s for sure, is that China is also far advanced working on the same stuff, but with a very different set of ethical boundaries.
    Leon and others go on about the risks of AI taking over the world.

    The real risk is people trusting AI's that are not truly 'intelligent'. 'The computer says no' writ large.

    "But it cannot possibly fail! It's an AI!"
    Yes, the inevitable conclusion (and the desired conclusion among the Chinese developers), will be the ease with which someone can be, as a Mr Orwell wrote a century ago, “unpersoned” with no recourse.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,319
    Pagan2 said:

    carnforth said:

    For @Gardenwalker

    @dkaushik96
    In case you were wondering how the global race for talent is going, here are some trends.

    US = 😢
    UK, Australia, Canada = 🚀


    https://twitter.com/dkaushik96/status/1516182724041744386

    image

    image

    Some proportion of those this year will be for EU student who didn’t need a visa before, right? Still, it seems an encouraging trend.
    Weren't we told though leaving the EU would result in all those foreign students no longer wanting to study here....asking for a friend
    Oops, wonder how it looks now
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,576
    Sandpit said:

    Sandpit said:

    Nigelb said:

    … and what the IT posters here make of this.
    You can plant an undetectable backdoor in any deep learning model
    https://twitter.com/neuroecology/status/1516565594283384837

    Yep, and it’s scary as hell. There’s a lot of ethical and regulatory issues with some of this stuff, which Western governments in particular are going to have to deal with in the next few years.

    What’s for sure, is that China is also far advanced working on the same stuff, but with a very different set of ethical boundaries.
    Leon and others go on about the risks of AI taking over the world.

    The real risk is people trusting AI's that are not truly 'intelligent'. 'The computer says no' writ large.

    "But it cannot possibly fail! It's an AI!"
    Yes, the inevitable conclusion (and the desired conclusion among the Chinese developers), will be the ease with which someone can be, as a Mr Orwell wrote a century ago, “unpersoned” with no recourse.
    I've actually plotted out a story with this sort of thing at its core - to be written as a comedic farce. If I ever learn to write and get the time. ;)
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052

    Interesting thread....

    In 2012, Netflix had just lost 800,000 subscribers and lost a $30,000,000 licensing agreement with Starz.

    In Q4 of 2021, they added 10x that number of subscribers and are worth $151,000,000,000.

    The key? World-class data science.

    Here's how they outfoxed the media industry 🧵

    https://twitter.com/marktenenholtz/status/1516386146321780737?t=C6hFnM356h6l25LdyaIH8w&s=19

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61153252
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    jonny83 said:

    Looks like this 'mystery' Hepatitis in children is turning up in more countries:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61157909

    One of Putin's presents to the world?
  • mwadamsmwadams Posts: 3,590
    rcs1000 said:

    carnforth said:

    The thing about these graphs which does surprise is the spike after 2016 when conventional wisdom (and I think what I’ve read from some analysts) is that Theresa May and Nick Timothy cut down specifically on the student visa route.

    May reduced the time a graduate could work after their degree from 2 years to 4 months. It has since been increased to 2 years again, by the current government. I don’t think she formally limited numbers.

    She did have an odd bee in her bonnet about counting students in the immigration figures, which never seemed to make sense to me.

    Undergraduates can work 20 hours per week during their degree (those of us from Fen Poly often forget that one can work during a degree - we were banned from doing so, save for holidays. Maybe at some other places too?)
    Eh?

    I was at Cambridge 92-95 and worked part time (and was allowed to work).
    I was there from 91, and we definitely were not. Maybe it was the change to the 3 digit userids that heralded the change.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585

    Interesting thread....

    In 2012, Netflix had just lost 800,000 subscribers and lost a $30,000,000 licensing agreement with Starz.

    In Q4 of 2021, they added 10x that number of subscribers and are worth $151,000,000,000.

    The key? World-class data science.

    Here's how they outfoxed the media industry 🧵

    https://twitter.com/marktenenholtz/status/1516386146321780737?t=C6hFnM356h6l25LdyaIH8w&s=19

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61153252
    Their share price was off 20% at one point yesterday. The fragmentation of the streaming industry is going to be bad for all competitors, and the need for original content is going to be the trump card in future.

    Quite why Netflix now thinks that throwing millions at Mr and Mrs Sussex is the way to achieve that, is another question.
  • rcs1000 said:

    So I have spent the past few days “defending” the Rwanda policy to my friends, or at least refusing to condemn it outright.

    I see today that scheme is for men only?

    Presumably husbands will be separated from their wives; fathers from their children.

    Fuck right off.
    This is an abomination.

    I see too the IMF is predicting the UK will be slowest economy between 20 and 24 - essentially static on a per capita basis.

    We can’t stand another two years of this.
    The government needs to fall NOW.

    No no no! The only men coming to these shores are terrorists and scroungers. So off they go to Rwanda, The women and children get on these boats to claim asylum because being drowned in the channel is preferable to just claiming asylum in the oh yeah there is no legal way they can claim asylum.

    So yeah. Separate families it is. You're against that? Big wet blanket ye are.

    To be fair its not hard enough. Lets punish them further! Make them live on Canvey Island! Make them drink tapwater! Fly them out of Manchester Airport!
    You sick bastard.
    Mrs RP has a build. "Why fly them out at all? The queue at Manchester Airport is never-ending. They'll never escape"
    @Gardenwalker its focused on *single* men (I think between ages of 18-25 but not sure about that) - so prone economic migrants. Married men travelling with their family are exempt
    Yes, so as May said this will lead to a big increase in women and children trafficking. "You can't deport me, here are my family"
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,070
    Sandpit said:

    Interesting thread....

    In 2012, Netflix had just lost 800,000 subscribers and lost a $30,000,000 licensing agreement with Starz.

    In Q4 of 2021, they added 10x that number of subscribers and are worth $151,000,000,000.

    The key? World-class data science.

    Here's how they outfoxed the media industry 🧵

    https://twitter.com/marktenenholtz/status/1516386146321780737?t=C6hFnM356h6l25LdyaIH8w&s=19

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-61153252
    Their share price was off 20% at one point yesterday. The fragmentation of the streaming industry is going to be bad for all competitors, and the need for original content is going to be the trump card in future.

    Quite why Netflix now thinks that throwing millions at Mr and Mrs Sussex is the way to achieve that, is another question.
    From that thread about their 'world class data science'...
    They noticed 3 key things:

    1. The British version of House of Cards was a hit.

    2. Films with Kevin Spacey were, too...


    They were an innovator on their own back then. Now they're scrapping in the gutter with everyone else.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    On Ukraine, BBC reporting (unable to verify):

    - After attempts by Russian forces to storm Rubizhne and Severodonetsk localities, around 130 wounded troops were taken to a local hospital.

    - Ukrainian military have repulsed 10 attacks by Russian forces in Donetsk and Luhansk over the past 24 hours.

    - Twelve tanks, 28 armoured vehicles and one artillery system have been destroyed, and Ukraine's air force has hit nine targets - one plane, one helicopter, six UAVs and a cruise missile.
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,052

    Taz said:

    There is a lingering feeling that PBers are less keen on moving on from covid than the public at large. The statistics are clear: it’s less risky than influenza and has been for some time.

    Since the mask mandate was dropped here yesterday I think the number of people complying with the request by Tesco et al to wear a mask is 80%. As soon as pox rates collapse back into singe digits I'll stop bothering.
    I’d say we saw similar here in Waitrose when it ceased to be a legal requirement but was a request by the store, most carried on. It’s gradually declined to around 10 to 20% now.
    I do our weekly shop in our local sainsburys in Durham. If I see more than a couple of people with masks that is all, same on the buses.

    I just don’t bother now, either.
    There’s a lady on my street who seemingly wears a mask at all times. I walked past her house the other day and she was masked while scrubbing her own front step. Bar her, I rarely see a mask on anyone all day.
    I was hoping to catch up with somebody at a conference in a few months time and they said that the conference isn't going to enforce mask wearing rules so they wouldn't be attending and although they aren't clinically vulnerable, vaccinated etc, they wouldn't feel safe.

    Each to their own, but I wonder some people are suffering a sort of PTSD, where they see danger at every turn and lost sense of the a) the risk profile and b) that unless you insist on living like a hermit for the rest of your days, you are going to come into contact with COVID at some point.
    a) That’s not now PTSD works. b) Have we not learnt by now that you can get multiple re-infections? You write as if getting COVID is a one and done affair.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,375

    jonny83 said:

    Looks like this 'mystery' Hepatitis in children is turning up in more countries:

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61157909

    One of Putin's presents to the world?
    Well, we all know he’s yellow right through.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,424
    Good morning one and all.

    Hope OGH recovers quickly, with no lasting after-effects.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited April 2022
    Quite a charge sheet:

    Timeline of 🇩🇪's @OlafScholz's many lies:

    1) At the end of February Germany's defense industry sends Scholz a long list of all available weapons.
    2) Scholz doesn't share the list with Ukraine.
    3) Scholz says that there are no more weapons left in Germany to give to Ukraine.

    1/7


    https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1516545893805273091?
This discussion has been closed.