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It’s almost certain now that Johnson won’t be fined by end of March – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    stodge said:

    Pulpstar said:

    85 grand on a parish council spat - absolute insanity.

    The problem there's a legal obligation to properly investigate the complaints made. It seems there were 21 complaints over a two year period (how many would most parish councils have?) and that meant taking them to an external investigator (which doubtless cost more as well).
    Many have provisions against taking further complaints which are trivial, vexatious, politically motivated, tit for tat etc, but that can be a tricky call to make, and in the firist instance things might need looking at.

    And of course often complaints will be against the Bercows of the world, who drag and complicate matters (even as they complaint about it taking a long time and getting complicated).
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,717
    edited March 2022
    stodge said:


    No they won't, William and Kate for instance are extremely popular amongst young Australians.

    I know you aren't that bothered about the long term future of the monarchy as you are almost as old as the Queen anyway, however it will endure for another 1000 years as it already has for over 1000 years
    There was a brief hiatus halfway through the 17th century but I can sort of imagine you in exile with Charles II awaiting the Restoration.

    As for 1000 years - trying to conceive of the world in the 31st century is tough going at any time but too much for me at the end of a busy day.

    I wonder how they will view the 21st Century.

    My thoughts exactly. If the human race makes it another 1000 years it will be an achievement, let alone the royal family. In s thousand years we maybe ruled by aliens or a colony of Iceland or possibly in the matrix.

    PS Sorry @stodge I have messed up the quotes
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,847
    Cyclefree said:

    I have been out. But - unpopular though this view may be - a little scepticism, given the Met's less than stellar track record and this report by Parliament, may be wise -

    https://committees.parliament.uk/committee/93/human-rights-joint-committee/news/154842/joint-committee-on-human-rights-every-fixed-penalty-notice-issued-under-coronavirus-regulations-must-be-reviewed/.

    Are people assuming that the Met has got the law and facts on the Covid regulations right? Because that may not be the wisest assumption in the world to make.

    When the CPS looked at those FPNs which had been issued in 2020 they had to drop them all because they were so flawed. Of course, a sensible police force would have learnt lessons. But - oh do stop laughing at the back - it's the Met we're talking about.

    For The Greater Good
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    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,005
    edited March 2022
    kjh said:

    stodge said:


    No they won't, William and Kate for instance are extremely popular amongst young Australians.

    I know you aren't that bothered about the long term future of the monarchy as you are almost as old as the Queen anyway, however it will endure for another 1000 years as it already has for over 1000 years
    There was a brief hiatus halfway through the 17th century but I can sort of imagine you in exile with Charles II awaiting the Restoration.

    As for 1000 years - trying to conceive of the world in the 31st century is tough going at any time but too much for me at the end of a busy day.

    I wonder how they will view the 21st Century.


    My guess is that, a few hundred years into the future, either meat eating or abortion will be seen in a similar way to slavery today. Possibly both, but I think both these things that are commonplace today are strong candidates for things people will look back on in the future and say "how could 21st century people do that?"

    For the record, I have no problem with either of those things myself (I look forward to being cancelled in the 25th century).
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    BigRichBigRich Posts: 3,489
    Nigelb said:

    Really, no backup ??

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1508881891641995284
    A cyber attack has destroyed data of Rosaviatsia, 🇷🇺Federal Air Transport Agency. 65 TB of files, aircraft registration data & mail were deleted from servers. There is no backup - Russian Ministry of Finance has not allocated funds for it. @AnonOpsSE claims responsibility

    I know little about this sort of thing, but does that mean that the hackers now have copy's? that could be handed back if Russia restreets?
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,289
    Just another reminder that Brexit is not “done.” https://twitter.com/pickardje/status/1508891686553980930
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    I see that a £38m superyacht called Phi the has been nabbed in Lunnon.



    Do we have any PB superyachties who can explain how that back end deals with heavy seas?

    Does it have dismountable flood defences like Tewkesbury?

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60912754

    I don't think they're supposed to be out in heavy seas, are they? Might cause gin to be spilled.
    If they travel say from here to Monaco, then they risk heavy seas regardless.
    That yacht looks absolutely hideous, the maritime equivalent of those vulgar Oscar dresses.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,503
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    This really shouldn't be allowed. Nobody benefits and plenty are hurt or misled.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,847
    Nigelb said:

    .

    Andy_JS said:

    O/T

    There's a movie on Film4 atm which I've never heard of called Man On Fire from 2004. Looked it up on Rotten Tomatoes and it has a critics rating of 39% and an audience rating of 89%.

    It's always intriguing when there's a big gap between the two figures, whichever way round it is.

    https://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/man_on_fire

    It’s rubbish.
    Unless you’re into fairly mindless violence and not much else.
    It's a revenge thriller. Just done by a great director, using a great cast.
  • Options
    kjhkjh Posts: 10,717
    kyf_100 said:

    kjh said:

    stodge said:


    No they won't, William and Kate for instance are extremely popular amongst young Australians.

    I know you aren't that bothered about the long term future of the monarchy as you are almost as old as the Queen anyway, however it will endure for another 1000 years as it already has for over 1000 years
    There was a brief hiatus halfway through the 17th century but I can sort of imagine you in exile with Charles II awaiting the Restoration.

    As for 1000 years - trying to conceive of the world in the 31st century is tough going at any time but too much for me at the end of a busy day.

    I wonder how they will view the 21st Century.
    My guess is that, a few hundred years into the future, either meat eating or abortion will be seen in a similar way to slavery today. Possibly both, but I think both these things that are commonplace today are strong candidates for things people will look back on in the future and say "how could 21st century people do that?"

    For the record, I have no problem with either of those things myself (I look forward to being cancelled in the 25th century).

    It's a good job I like @stodge and @kyf_100 posts because there is no way of working out who posted what now. Or this come to think of it.
  • Options
    kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,005
    kjh said:

    kyf_100 said:

    kjh said:

    stodge said:


    No they won't, William and Kate for instance are extremely popular amongst young Australians.

    I know you aren't that bothered about the long term future of the monarchy as you are almost as old as the Queen anyway, however it will endure for another 1000 years as it already has for over 1000 years
    There was a brief hiatus halfway through the 17th century but I can sort of imagine you in exile with Charles II awaiting the Restoration.

    As for 1000 years - trying to conceive of the world in the 31st century is tough going at any time but too much for me at the end of a busy day.

    I wonder how they will view the 21st Century.
    My guess is that, a few hundred years into the future, either meat eating or abortion will be seen in a similar way to slavery today. Possibly both, but I think both these things that are commonplace today are strong candidates for things people will look back on in the future and say "how could 21st century people do that?"

    For the record, I have no problem with either of those things myself (I look forward to being cancelled in the 25th century).
    It's a good job I like @stodge and @kyf_100 posts because there is no way of working out who posted what now. Or this come to think of it.

    Yeah for some reason the blockquotes are completely screwed up on that thread. I tried to edit them to be correct but it wouldn't let me re-edit.
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    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    Presidents very regularly struggle midterm and then see their polls climb when voters start looking at alternatives as the presidential election looms. All of Trump's stuff is going to hit a wall when the Dems run ads pointing out he tried to remove military aid to Ukraine.
  • Options
    FishingFishing Posts: 4,563
    Pulpstar said:

    85 grand on a parish council spat - absolute insanity.

    As a matter of interest, have you ever had a legal bill where you thought, "damn that was great value"?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,187
    This is both vile, and also well captures the moral difference between the invaders and the invaded.

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1508906196505403397
    Russian occupiers kidnapped Primorsk mayor Oleksandr Koshelevych

    From 1st days of occupation on 3Mar, he attended anti-occupation protests, criticized 🇷🇺. Searching for the mayor, they kidnapped his father; Koshelevych "traded himself for him".
  • Options
    AslanAslan Posts: 1,673
    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    Presidents very regularly struggle midterm and then see their polls climb when voters start looking at alternatives as the presidential election looms. All of Trump's stuff is going to hit a wall when the Dems run ads pointing out he tried to remove military aid to Ukraine.
    I also think if Biden doesn't run, we could have an Obama-Clinton 2008 dynamic as Pete Buttigieg claims the mantle that is believed as ordained to a female candidate.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,003

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    Its all hypothetical until the midterm elections.
    Midterm elections don't mean that much however. For example, Obama's Democrats lost in 2010, Clinton's Democrats lost in 1994, Reagan's GOP lost in 1982, however all 3 Presidents were re elected (albeit the GOP did lose in 2018 before Trump lost in 2020).

    Not all defeats are the same.
    Not a defeat, a tactical withdrawal to concentrate elsewhere...
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,685
    edited March 2022
    kyf_100 said:

    kjh said:

    stodge said:


    No they won't, William and Kate for instance are extremely popular amongst young Australians.

    I know you aren't that bothered about the long term future of the monarchy as you are almost as old as the Queen anyway, however it will endure for another 1000 years as it already has for over 1000 years
    There was a brief hiatus halfway through the 17th century but I can sort of imagine you in exile with Charles II awaiting the Restoration.

    As for 1000 years - trying to conceive of the world in the 31st century is tough going at any time but too much for me at the end of a busy day.

    I wonder how they will view the 21st Century.
    My guess is that, a few hundred years into the future, either meat eating or abortion will be seen in a similar way to slavery today. Possibly both, but I think both these things that are commonplace today are strong candidates for things people will look back on in the future and say "how could 21st century people do that?"

    For the record, I have no problem with either of those things myself (I look forward to being cancelled in the 25th century).

    Meat eating is not a 21st century phenomenon; it has existed nearly as long as mankind, so it's unlikely that even if it stops, that there will be much confusion as to how and why it was done. I think most things that are looked back on with confusion or disgust are when things like trends and grotesqueries that become extreme. Spanish inquisition, lead make up, tulip fever, crinolines, witch trials, medical bleeding, the circus maximus, etc. Slavery is an exception, that's a very old part of life that became extinct.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,003
    The photos just keep coming of the battle of Trostyanets. It looks like a complete disaster for the Russians.

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1508855440058327041?t=EuCd1KG7kJb54jq7h6C9fw&s=19

    Shame to damage the T34 of the war memorial.
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,003

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    Not much we can do.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,172
    Pulpstar said:

    85 grand on a parish council spat - absolute insanity.

    Who pays the bill?
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    Maybe they should make tanks key ignition, it might make it easier to abandon them without them being used by the enemy.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    edited March 2022
    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    85 grand on a parish council spat - absolute insanity.

    Who pays the bill?
    What price democracy and its proper functioning? We don't have it as a system because it is cheap or efficient.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,738
    Darth Putin
    @DarthPutinKGB
    Czar for life of all Russia. Maker of exotic tea & underwear. It’s special military operation not invasion & is going to plan. For parody see
    @mfa_russia

    Day 34 of my 3 day war. My army advances backwards, most of my agents are no longer secret & Abramovich has unfriended me on Facebook.

    I remain a master strategist.

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    pm215pm215 Posts: 944
    BigRich said:

    Nigelb said:

    Really, no backup ??

    https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1508881891641995284
    A cyber attack has destroyed data of Rosaviatsia, 🇷🇺Federal Air Transport Agency. 65 TB of files, aircraft registration data & mail were deleted from servers. There is no backup - Russian Ministry of Finance has not allocated funds for it. @AnonOpsSE claims responsibility

    I know little about this sort of thing, but does that mean that the hackers now have copy's? that could be handed back if Russia restreets?
    My guess is "mostly no". 65TB is a massive amount of data, you can't just quietly download it in a few hours. They might have grabbed some of the jucier looking bits, but deleting data is much easier and faster...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,313

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    If he can build an election winning coalition for a second time, why would that constitute a turn against democracy?
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669
    First day back in the office, the juniors (and others) seemed happy that I'm back (well at least the company expenses card anyway lol). We ubered up to Old Street and got many drinks at the Old Fountain, saw the Instagram train guy as well.

    I definitely missed office life while in Mexico. I feel as though I've opened the floodgates a bit as half the bloody team has decided to work remotely and it's not as if I can say no either. I just hope when they go to Mexico they don't get accustomed to the £10 for 3g of coke price 😅
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    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    Foxy said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    Not much we can do.
    Of course there is.

    We should be working to protect our own democracy, and be wary of putting all our eggs in a US basket.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,255
    SeanT said:

    I have to say, @Leon is completely right about this

    I rarely find myself in total agreement with a commenter, on this scale, but there it is. Some of you should be ashamed

    We've missed you. Is @LadyG by your side?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    Surely the more frightening aspect is that Trump may win legitimately.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    If he can build an election winning coalition for a second time, why would that constitute a turn against democracy?
    It's what he might do with the win that is concerning. We know for a fact he and his allies supported the idea of ignoring the last vote, or allowing state legislatures to ignore the votes, who knows what he might be able to do if he does win.

    He might well manage it, fairly under their system, but that doesn't mean the prospects for a flourishing democracy are great - there is more to democratic systems that a single electoral event.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    If he can build an election winning coalition for a second time, why would that constitute a turn against democracy?
    Because it would be the last time there is a democratic election.
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    Fysics_TeacherFysics_Teacher Posts: 6,060

    ENOUGH IS ENOUGH.

    I have eaten enough chocolate today

    I sympathise...
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,313

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    If he can build an election winning coalition for a second time, why would that constitute a turn against democracy?
    Because it would be the last time there is a democratic election.
    By what mechanism do you think he will prevent future democratic elections?
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,738
    Aslan said:

    Aslan said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    Presidents very regularly struggle midterm and then see their polls climb when voters start looking at alternatives as the presidential election looms. All of Trump's stuff is going to hit a wall when the Dems run ads pointing out he tried to remove military aid to Ukraine.
    I also think if Biden doesn't run, we could have an Obama-Clinton 2008 dynamic as Pete Buttigieg claims the mantle that is believed as ordained to a female candidate.
    This could be what keeps Kamala Harris in the game despite her underwhelming performance (so far) as VP. And fuel other potential hopefuls ranging from Amy Klobuchar to . . . wait for it . . . Michelle Obama.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    edited March 2022

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    How would it be a turn against democracy if Trump, based on that poll, not only wins the EC but the popular vote too in 2024?

    You may despise Trump but he would have won fair and square under a democratic vote. Americans would have elected him again and would have to live with the consequences. However it would not be all bad, I am not a great fan of his but there is also no doubt Putin and Xi were more wary when he was President to some extent because he was unpredictable
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    HYUFD said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    How would it be a turn against democracy if Trump, based on that poll, not only wins the EC but the popular vote too?

    You may despise Trump but he would have won fair and square under a democratic vote. I am not a great fan of his but there is no doubt Putin and Xi were more wary when he was President to some extent because he was unpredictable
    It’s not a democratic win we should be afraid of, but what he might do after that.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,003

    Foxy said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    Not much we can do.
    Of course there is.

    We should be working to protect our own democracy, and be wary of putting all our eggs in a US basket.
    America is going down in a big way. Surprised that you signed on to a sinking ship.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669

    HYUFD said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    How would it be a turn against democracy if Trump, based on that poll, not only wins the EC but the popular vote too?

    You may despise Trump but he would have won fair and square under a democratic vote. I am not a great fan of his but there is no doubt Putin and Xi were more wary when he was President to some extent because he was unpredictable
    It’s not a democratic win we should be afraid of, but what he might do after that.
    Well I think Trump winning a legitimate victory would also be worrying in itself as it would be the result of America turning it's back on democratic values. It's up to the democrats to understand what exactly has gone wrong with America and address that immediately instead of telling American people that women have got cocks and if they don't agree they're bigots.
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    kjhkjh Posts: 10,717
    So as not to continue with the buggered thread I would hope that in a 1000 years, if we are still here we would have a world govt, but as I believe in devolution @huyfd could still have his monarch of the UK.
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,648
    HYUFD said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    How would it be a turn against democracy if Trump, based on that poll, not only wins the EC but the popular vote too in 2024?

    You may despise Trump but he would have won fair and square under a democratic vote. Americans would have elected him again and would have to live with the consequences. However it would not be all bad, I am not a great fan of his but there is also no doubt Putin and Xi were more wary when he was President to some extent because he was unpredictable
    Good to see you've got an insight into Putin and Xi's thinking.
    As for Trump - he probably thinks UKraine is something to do with the weather over here.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,003

    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Every now and then, I like to check on my erstwhile colleague who went over to the dark side about 20 years ago, Scott Ritter.

    Here he explains how the Russian plan is going brilliantly:

    https://twitter.com/RealScottRitter/status/1508813631311466496

    It's a good piece.

    And if the Russian's hadn't lost a quite ridiculous amount of materiel, and seen an elite paratroop unit completely wiped out at Kyiv airport, then it would be quite plausible.

    Because dropping 1,000 paratroopers at an airport, and then failing to get regular troops anywhere near the airport before they were killed, seems like an odd feint. Or, at the very least a rather unnecessary one.
    Where he is right is that the Russians are, even if not by design, likely tying up Ukrainian forces in the wrong places "just in case".
    yes, while the twitter trend is tying to make a point of Russian skill and is very unconvincing in that, it is non the less the case that the Ukrainians have mostly been tied up along a long front with most of there offensive capacity taking small amounts of territory around Kyie wile the Russians have built there land bridge, and almost destroyed/captured all of Mariupol,

    ones the rest of Mariupol falls, probably in the next few days, Putin will never give it up in negotiations, or referendum, and the Ukrainians don't appear strong enough to retake it. perhaps if the Ukrainians had redeployed all available forces there last week while most of the city was still in Ukrainian hands they could have broken though, but feeling less likely now.
    You are probably right.

    But with or without Mariupol, the Russian land bridge is narrow and critically dependent on just a few roads. At the very least it is extremely vulnerable to harrying ambushes of logistics travelling on these routes. Should the Ukrainians ever get decent artillery and ground attack air capabilities, it will be shooting fish in a barrel.
    I've read that the Russian forces round kyiv were there to divert some of ukraines forces to defend the city whilst the Russians concentrated on mariupol and the land bridge
    Not credible. They simply realised that Trostyanets was just the beginning of a bigger defeat.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,187
    This statement is at least partially untrue.

    Statement by Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby on U.S. Navy EA-18G Growler Deployment to Spangdahlem Air Base, Germany
    https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2980528/statement-by-pentagon-press-secretary-john-f-kirby-on-us-navy-ea-18g-growler-de/source/statement-by-pentagon-press-secretary-john-f-kirby-on-us-navy-ea-18g-growler-de/
    …. These Growlers are equipped for a variety of missions but they specialize in flying electronic warfare missions, using a suite of jamming sensors to confuse enemy radars, greatly aiding in the ability to conduct suppression of enemy air defense operations. They will be accompanied by about 240 air crew, aircraft maintainers, and pilots.

    They are not being deployed to be used against Russian forces in Ukraine. They are being deployed completely in keeping with our efforts to bolster NATO's deterrence and defense capabilities along that eastern flank. The deployment is not in response to a perceived threat or incident.

    As we have said all along, the Secretary wants to keep options open. He is in constant consultations with General Wolters, and as a result of discussions with General Wolters, as well as the German government, this was deemed to be an additional move that could continue to bolster our deterrence and reinforce our defenses on the eastern flank. This deployment is a prudent decision to continue to reevaluate our force posture on NATO's eastern flank…
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    If he can build an election winning coalition for a second time, why would that constitute a turn against democracy?
    Because it would be the last time there is a democratic election.
    By what mechanism do you think he will prevent future democratic elections?
    An insurrection was organized that nearly ended up lynching the VP because he wouldn't certify the entire election invalid.

    You think next time those behind Trump wont work out how to get it 'right' in 2028?
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 63,187

    Foxy said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    Not much we can do.
    Of course there is.

    We should be working to protect our own democracy, and be wary of putting all our eggs in a US basket.
    Of course - but a Trump presidency is at the very least a threat to a renewed NATO alliance, and risks any peace deal done in Ukraine if its main guarantor decides it can’t be bothered.
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    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,127
    edited March 2022
    It is certainly true that many of us who despise and/or fear Trump would be inclined to see any victory of his to be a terrible event in itself.

    It does not follow logically, however, that anyone raising concerns about democratic standards in the United States if he wins is doing so only because of that dislike and fear. That is such a phony proposition and blatant attempt to dismiss any concerns by virtue of who stated it as to be laughable.

    There are legitimate problems in many democracies in the world, including ours, and some of the ones in america are well known, such as gerrymandering, the influence of secret money, and politicised officials. These are not solely the province of Republicans either.

    Nevertheless, when the man gave at best tacit encouragement to a riot to prevent the certification of his lawfully elected opponent, when his acolytes pursue or advocate for measures which would give legislatures the power to set aside democratic outcomes on the basis of any concocted concerns they feel like, and plenty more besides, the idea that his winning the election would endanger democratic systems is a groundless fear, well, it's just plain nonsense.

    He's not Putin. But that is not the standard which we or our allies should hold ourselves to. If he lawfully wins, and he might, that doesn't mean there is no harm that could be done. No more than Biden winning last time magically fixed all problems with american democracy, or Corbyn losing fixed ours.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603
    Foxy said:

    The photos just keep coming of the battle of Trostyanets. It looks like a complete disaster for the Russians.

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1508855440058327041?t=EuCd1KG7kJb54jq7h6C9fw&s=19

    Shame to damage the T34 of the war memorial.

    Can't think why they are retreating.
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    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,738
    edited March 2022
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    Not much we can do.
    Of course there is.

    We should be working to protect our own democracy, and be wary of putting all our eggs in a US basket.
    America is going down in a big way. Surprised that you signed on to a sinking ship.
    Oh ye of little faith! Georgia held the line in 2020 AND 2021.

    And NOT impossible it will do again in 2022. Hope springing eternal!

    Black Trumper is a wild card, but not yet clear Herschel Walker is a match for Raphael Warnock on the campaign trail as opposed to the gridiron.

    EDIT - And what the hell were you doing, Foxy, messing about with TimT's chickens?!?
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,648
    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    How would it be a turn against democracy if Trump, based on that poll, not only wins the EC but the popular vote too?

    You may despise Trump but he would have won fair and square under a democratic vote. I am not a great fan of his but there is no doubt Putin and Xi were more wary when he was President to some extent because he was unpredictable
    It’s not a democratic win we should be afraid of, but what he might do after that.
    Well I think Trump winning a legitimate victory would also be worrying in itself as it would be the result of America turning it's back on democratic values. It's up to the democrats to understand what exactly has gone wrong with America and address that immediately instead of telling American people that women have got cocks and if they don't agree they're bigots.
    Could I gently suggest that you're a little bit obsessed over this? Single issue politics, and all that.
    Anyway, I'm not aware of Biden being any more interested in genitalia than I am, nor that it is of great interest to most Democrats.
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    sarissasarissa Posts: 1,804

    kyf_100 said:

    kjh said:

    stodge said:


    No they won't, William and Kate for instance are extremely popular amongst young Australians.

    I know you aren't that bothered about the long term future of the monarchy as you are almost as old as the Queen anyway, however it will endure for another 1000 years as it already has for over 1000 years
    There was a brief hiatus halfway through the 17th century but I can sort of imagine you in exile with Charles II awaiting the Restoration.

    As for 1000 years - trying to conceive of the world in the 31st century is tough going at any time but too much for me at the end of a busy day.

    I wonder how they will view the 21st Century.
    My guess is that, a few hundred years into the future, either meat eating or abortion will be seen in a similar way to slavery today. Possibly both, but I think both these things that are commonplace today are strong candidates for things people will look back on in the future and say "how could 21st century people do that?"

    For the record, I have no problem with either of those things myself (I look forward to being cancelled in the 25th century).
    Meat eating is not a 21st century phenomenon; it has existed nearly as long as mankind, so it's unlikely that even if it stops, that there will be much confusion as to how and why it was done. I think most things that are looked back on with confusion or disgust are when things like trends and grotesqueries that become extreme. Spanish inquisition, lead make up, tulip fever, crinolines, witch trials, medical bleeding, the circus maximus, etc. Slavery is an exception, that's a very old part of life that became extinct.

    Just returned from Malta, where I didn’t expect……

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_Inquisition
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,172
    kle4 said:

    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:

    85 grand on a parish council spat - absolute insanity.

    Who pays the bill?
    What price democracy and its proper functioning? We don't have it as a system because it is cheap or efficient.
    I agree. I was just wondering which body pays the bill. Cheshire East council maybe.
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,003

    Foxy said:

    The photos just keep coming of the battle of Trostyanets. It looks like a complete disaster for the Russians.

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1508855440058327041?t=EuCd1KG7kJb54jq7h6C9fw&s=19

    Shame to damage the T34 of the war memorial.

    Can't think why they are retreating.
    It risks turning into a rout in the North.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603
    HYUFD said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    How would it be a turn against democracy if Trump, based on that poll, not only wins the EC but the popular vote too in 2024?

    You may despise Trump but he would have won fair and square under a democratic vote. Americans would have elected him again and would have to live with the consequences. However it would not be all bad, I am not a great fan of his but there is also no doubt Putin and Xi were more wary when he was President to some extent because he was unpredictable
    It's a turn against against democracy and the American rule of law and constitution, because Trump openly despises all of that and wants to end it.

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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,399
    Cyclefree said:

    SeanT said:

    I have to say, @Leon is completely right about this

    I rarely find myself in total agreement with a commenter, on this scale, but there it is. Some of you should be ashamed

    We've missed you. Is @LadyG by your side?
    More intimate than that, he may be in LadyG, or indeed vice versa.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    How would it be a turn against democracy if Trump, based on that poll, not only wins the EC but the popular vote too?

    You may despise Trump but he would have won fair and square under a democratic vote. I am not a great fan of his but there is no doubt Putin and Xi were more wary when he was President to some extent because he was unpredictable
    It’s not a democratic win we should be afraid of, but what he might do after that.
    Well I think Trump winning a legitimate victory would also be worrying in itself as it would be the result of America turning it's back on democratic values. It's up to the democrats to understand what exactly has gone wrong with America and address that immediately instead of telling American people that women have got cocks and if they don't agree they're bigots.
    Could I gently suggest that you're a little bit obsessed over this? Single issue politics, and all that.
    Anyway, I'm not aware of Biden being any more interested in genitalia than I am, nor that it is of great interest to most Democrats.
    It's just my shorthand for people who aren't enamoured by wokism. I don't think you are either judging from your earlier posts, but I guess you're too scared to say so directly (just like Starmer) because your political movement may disown you. Hilary called them deplorables, wokists call them bigots, but ultimately they're just ordinary Americans and the Dems need to figure out why they want to vote for Trump despite previously voting for Clinton and Obama.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,313

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    If he can build an election winning coalition for a second time, why would that constitute a turn against democracy?
    Because it would be the last time there is a democratic election.
    By what mechanism do you think he will prevent future democratic elections?
    An insurrection was organized that nearly ended up lynching the VP because he wouldn't certify the entire election invalid.

    You think next time those behind Trump wont work out how to get it 'right' in 2028?
    In order to get that far, they would first need to change the constitution to allow Trump to run for a third term. Do you think they will do that successfully?
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    Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 7,648
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    How would it be a turn against democracy if Trump, based on that poll, not only wins the EC but the popular vote too?

    You may despise Trump but he would have won fair and square under a democratic vote. I am not a great fan of his but there is no doubt Putin and Xi were more wary when he was President to some extent because he was unpredictable
    It’s not a democratic win we should be afraid of, but what he might do after that.
    Well I think Trump winning a legitimate victory would also be worrying in itself as it would be the result of America turning it's back on democratic values. It's up to the democrats to understand what exactly has gone wrong with America and address that immediately instead of telling American people that women have got cocks and if they don't agree they're bigots.
    Could I gently suggest that you're a little bit obsessed over this? Single issue politics, and all that.
    Anyway, I'm not aware of Biden being any more interested in genitalia than I am, nor that it is of great interest to most Democrats.
    It's just my shorthand for people who aren't enamoured by wokism. I don't think you are either judging from your earlier posts, but I guess you're too scared to say so directly (just like Starmer) because your political movement may disown you. Hilary called them deplorables, wokists call them bigots, but ultimately they're just ordinary Americans and the Dems need to figure out why they want to vote for Trump despite previously voting for Clinton and Obama.
    Okay, though I can assure you that 'being scared' plays no role in my politics - us oldies don't tend to give a toss what people think of our views.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,603

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    If he can build an election winning coalition for a second time, why would that constitute a turn against democracy?
    Because it would be the last time there is a democratic election.
    By what mechanism do you think he will prevent future democratic elections?
    An insurrection was organized that nearly ended up lynching the VP because he wouldn't certify the entire election invalid.

    You think next time those behind Trump wont work out how to get it 'right' in 2028?
    In order to get that far, they would first need to change the constitution to allow Trump to run for a third term. Do you think they will do that successfully?
    The constitution will have been suspended by 2028.

  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    HYUFD said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    How would it be a turn against democracy if Trump, based on that poll, not only wins the EC but the popular vote too?

    You may despise Trump but he would have won fair and square under a democratic vote. I am not a great fan of his but there is no doubt Putin and Xi were more wary when he was President to some extent because he was unpredictable
    It’s not a democratic win we should be afraid of, but what he might do after that.
    Well I think Trump winning a legitimate victory would also be worrying in itself as it would be the result of America turning it's back on democratic values. It's up to the democrats to understand what exactly has gone wrong with America and address that immediately instead of telling American people that women have got cocks and if they don't agree they're bigots.
    Could I gently suggest that you're a little bit obsessed over this? Single issue politics, and all that.
    Anyway, I'm not aware of Biden being any more interested in genitalia than I am, nor that it is of great interest to most Democrats.
    It's just my shorthand for people who aren't enamoured by wokism. I don't think you are either judging from your earlier posts, but I guess you're too scared to say so directly (just like Starmer) because your political movement may disown you. Hilary called them deplorables, wokists call them bigots, but ultimately they're just ordinary Americans and the Dems need to figure out why they want to vote for Trump despite previously voting for Clinton and Obama.
    Okay, though I can assure you that 'being scared' plays no role in my politics - us oldies don't tend to give a toss what people think of our views.
    Fair enough, a hard earned luxury!
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,669

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    If he can build an election winning coalition for a second time, why would that constitute a turn against democracy?
    Because it would be the last time there is a democratic election.
    By what mechanism do you think he will prevent future democratic elections?
    An insurrection was organized that nearly ended up lynching the VP because he wouldn't certify the entire election invalid.

    You think next time those behind Trump wont work out how to get it 'right' in 2028?
    In order to get that far, they would first need to change the constitution to allow Trump to run for a third term. Do you think they will do that successfully?
    The constitution will have been suspended by 2028.

    I don't see how that's possible, even if there's a nuclear war I don't see how that's possible.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 20,264
    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    Not much we can do.
    Of course there is.

    We should be working to protect our own democracy, and be wary of putting all our eggs in a US basket.
    America is going down in a big way. Surprised that you signed on to a sinking ship.
    In what way is “America going down in a big way?” This is the sort of classic PB nerd throwaway comment that really riles. PBers have been predicting, variously, depending on their own fetish, the collapse of America, the collapse of London, the collapse of UK house prices, for years. None of it has transpired. I have rarely heard such hyperbolic guff so regularly as on here.
  • Options
    Great Sean now wanking over his own posts
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,272
    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    And one element is true: Biden running from Afghanistan definitely emboldened Putin.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,272
    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    Its all hypothetical until the midterm elections.
    Midterm elections don't mean that much however. For example, Obama's Democrats lost in 2010, Clinton's Democrats lost in 1994, Reagan's GOP lost in 1982, however all 3 Presidents were re elected (albeit the GOP did lose in 2018 before Trump lost in 2020).

    Indeed, Trump/The Republicans gained seats in the Senate in 2018, before losing the Presidency just two years later.
  • Options
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    And one element is true: Biden running from Afghanistan definitely emboldened Putin.
    But Trump launched that run.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    Not much we can do.
    Of course there is.

    We should be working to protect our own democracy, and be wary of putting all our eggs in a US basket.
    America is going down in a big way. Surprised that you signed on to a sinking ship.
    In what way is “America going down in a big way?” This is the sort of classic PB nerd throwaway comment that really riles. PBers have been predicting, variously, depending on their own fetish, the collapse of America, the collapse of London, the collapse of UK house prices, for years. None of it has transpired. I have rarely heard such hyperbolic guff so regularly as on here.
    The US looks better shaped to face the next few years than Europe. I’ve taken a mercenary approach for a while for the sake of my family’s prosperity.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,272

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    If he can build an election winning coalition for a second time, why would that constitute a turn against democracy?
    Because it would be the last time there is a democratic election.
    There is danger in the US, for sure. But I think you are too concerned.

    Trump winning the Presidency would simply mean Trump being President for four years.

    Or maybe less, given he's not getting any younger.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,272

    Great Sean now wanking over his own posts

    Hey, someone has to wank over his posts.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    Not much we can do.
    Of course there is.

    We should be working to protect our own democracy, and be wary of putting all our eggs in a US basket.
    America is going down in a big way. Surprised that you signed on to a sinking ship.
    In what way is “America going down in a big way?” This is the sort of classic PB nerd throwaway comment that really riles. PBers have been predicting, variously, depending on their own fetish, the collapse of America, the collapse of London, the collapse of UK house prices, for years. None of it has transpired. I have rarely heard such hyperbolic guff so regularly as on here.
    Shades of “XX politician (at various times, Trump, Biden, Johnson, Sturgeon, Corbyn, Pelosi) is in mental decline and will stand down / not run in YY.”
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,172
    edited March 2022
    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+0.5)

    Macron (EC-RE): 58.5% (-1.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41.5% (+1.5)

    +/- vs. 22-25 March 2022
    Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022
    Sample size: 2,004"
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,313
    Despite the clampdown on opposition media in Russia, there's still quite a lot of uncensored discussion about the progress of the war on various online platforms, and the mood is not optimistic at all about their military position.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,272

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    If he can build an election winning coalition for a second time, why would that constitute a turn against democracy?
    Because it would be the last time there is a democratic election.
    By what mechanism do you think he will prevent future democratic elections?
    An insurrection was organized that nearly ended up lynching the VP because he wouldn't certify the entire election invalid.

    You think next time those behind Trump wont work out how to get it 'right' in 2028?
    In order to get that far, they would first need to change the constitution to allow Trump to run for a third term. Do you think they will do that successfully?
    Fwiw, so long as the Democrats avoid nominating Kamala, then I think they beat Trump in 2024.

    It is also worth noting that half of Republicans don't want Trump to be the nominee. So it's far from impossible that we get President DeSantis.
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    edited March 2022
    rcs1000 said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    If he can build an election winning coalition for a second time, why would that constitute a turn against democracy?
    Because it would be the last time there is a democratic election.
    There is danger in the US, for sure. But I think you are too concerned.

    Trump winning the Presidency would simply mean Trump being President for four years.

    Or maybe less, given he's not getting any younger.
    I reckon there’s a more than 10% chance that Trump tries to steal the next election, and/or if he successful winning, a more than 20% chance that he seeks to permanently impair US democracy in order to secure himself or his party in office.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,003

    Foxy said:

    Foxy said:

    A Trump win in 24 remains frighteningly possible.

    What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?

    Not much we can do.
    Of course there is.

    We should be working to protect our own democracy, and be wary of putting all our eggs in a US basket.
    America is going down in a big way. Surprised that you signed on to a sinking ship.
    In what way is “America going down in a big way?” This is the sort of classic PB nerd throwaway comment that really riles. PBers have been predicting, variously, depending on their own fetish, the collapse of America, the collapse of London, the collapse of UK house prices, for years. None of it has transpired. I have rarely heard such hyperbolic guff so regularly as on here.
    The US looks better shaped to face the next few years than Europe. I’ve taken a mercenary approach for a while for the sake of my family’s prosperity.
    I didn't say that UK and Europe weren't sinking too!

    It's being so cheerful that keeps me going.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,313
    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+0.5)

    +/- vs. 22-25 March 2022
    Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022
    Sample size: 2,004"

    C'est le temps du cul qui grince.
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,902

    Why is Evgeny Lebedev briefing against Sir Keir?

    Perhaps because he thinks he is a hypocritical shit?
    Perhaps in return for his peerage.

    *innocent face*
  • Options
    GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 20,890
    edited March 2022
    MattW said:

    Why is Evgeny Lebedev briefing against Sir Keir?

    Perhaps because he thinks he is a hypocritical shit?
    Perhaps in return for his peerage.

    *innocent face*
    It’s amazing Lebedev has said anything at all since I believe he hasn’t bothered to turn up or do anything in the House to which Boris the clowntard elevated him.

    I thought the man was a mute.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,029
    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+0.5)

    Macron (EC-RE): 58.5% (-1.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41.5% (+1.5)

    +/- vs. 22-25 March 2022
    Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022
    Sample size: 2,004"

    There's no way it'll be that close, surely?
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,738

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    And one element is true: Biden running from Afghanistan definitely emboldened Putin.
    But Trump launched that run.
    But US bugged out of Afghanistan on Biden's watch. And it was a world-class fuck-up.

    Mostly, clearly, by US military aided & abetted by Foggy Bottom.

    BUT the buck stops with POTUS and rightly so.

    How much part it played in emboldening Putin the Unready, who (right now) knows? More than zero for sure.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    Its all hypothetical until the midterm elections.
    Midterm elections don't mean that much however. For example, Obama's Democrats lost in 2010, Clinton's Democrats lost in 1994, Reagan's GOP lost in 1982, however all 3 Presidents were re elected (albeit the GOP did lose in 2018 before Trump lost in 2020).

    Indeed, Trump/The Republicans gained seats in the Senate in 2018, before losing the Presidency just two years later.
    They lost the House though
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 45,003
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+0.5)

    Macron (EC-RE): 58.5% (-1.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41.5% (+1.5)

    +/- vs. 22-25 March 2022
    Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022
    Sample size: 2,004"

    There's no way it'll be that close, surely?
    I've am £600 in the green when Le Pen wins. Being pro-Putin just isn't the liability it should be.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+0.5)

    Macron (EC-RE): 58.5% (-1.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41.5% (+1.5)

    +/- vs. 22-25 March 2022
    Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022
    Sample size: 2,004"

    There's no way it'll be that close, surely?
    Macron should still win but Le Pen has moved more to the centre and some on the left who back the populist Melenchon may even vote for her
  • Options
    MightyAlexMightyAlex Posts: 1,470
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+0.5)

    Macron (EC-RE): 58.5% (-1.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41.5% (+1.5)

    +/- vs. 22-25 March 2022
    Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022
    Sample size: 2,004"

    There's no way it'll be that close, surely?
    I've am £600 in the green when Le Pen wins. Being pro-Putin just isn't the liability it should be.
    Plus the French have yet to enjoy their own brand of right winger. These things seem to be cyclical.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,252

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+0.5)

    Macron (EC-RE): 58.5% (-1.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41.5% (+1.5)

    +/- vs. 22-25 March 2022
    Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022
    Sample size: 2,004"

    There's no way it'll be that close, surely?
    I've am £600 in the green when Le Pen wins. Being pro-Putin just isn't the liability it should be.
    Plus the French have yet to enjoy their own brand of right winger. These things seem to be cyclical.
    Outside chance by early 2025 we have a re elected PM Johnson attending the G7 with President Le Pen and a newly returned to the Oval Office President Trump? Unlikely but stranger things have happened
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193
    Foxy said:

    The photos just keep coming of the battle of Trostyanets. It looks like a complete disaster for the Russians.

    https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1508855440058327041?t=EuCd1KG7kJb54jq7h6C9fw&s=19

    Shame to damage the T34 of the war memorial.

    The victors' shitz n giggles use of a spare NLAW.....
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,193

    TimT said:

    Oryx's numbers going up quite rapidly now. Wondering if this is that he has got some help with the backlog, or if, as would be expected, and army on the run is losing more kit than it was when attacking.

    333 tanks down ...

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    Up to 335 now....
    Oryx has been busy. Now 340 Russian tanks that Russia has lost....
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,272
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    Its all hypothetical until the midterm elections.
    Midterm elections don't mean that much however. For example, Obama's Democrats lost in 2010, Clinton's Democrats lost in 1994, Reagan's GOP lost in 1982, however all 3 Presidents were re elected (albeit the GOP did lose in 2018 before Trump lost in 2020).

    Indeed, Trump/The Republicans gained seats in the Senate in 2018, before losing the Presidency just two years later.
    They lost the House though
    I'm not disagreeing, just saying you can't read too much into midterm election results.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,497
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+0.5)

    Macron (EC-RE): 58.5% (-1.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41.5% (+1.5)

    +/- vs. 22-25 March 2022
    Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022
    Sample size: 2,004"

    There's no way it'll be that close, surely?
    I've am £600 in the green when Le Pen wins. Being pro-Putin just isn't the liability it should be.
    Plus the French have yet to enjoy their own brand of right winger. These things seem to be cyclical.
    Outside chance by early 2025 we have a re elected PM Johnson attending the G7 with President Le Pen and a newly returned to the Oval Office President Trump? Unlikely but stranger things have happened
    One of the reasons I am keeping away from here are your cheerful predictions.

    The picture you have just painted maybe your wet dream, but to some of us it is an apocalyptic nightmare.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,172
    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+0.5)

    Macron (EC-RE): 58.5% (-1.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41.5% (+1.5)

    +/- vs. 22-25 March 2022
    Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022
    Sample size: 2,004"

    There's no way it'll be that close, surely?
    Who knows.
  • Options
    PensfoldPensfold Posts: 191

    TimT said:

    Oryx's numbers going up quite rapidly now. Wondering if this is that he has got some help with the backlog, or if, as would be expected, and army on the run is losing more kit than it was when attacking.

    333 tanks down ...

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    Up to 335 now....
    Oryx has been busy. Now 340 Russian tanks that Russia has lost....
    Ukraine destroying Russian tanks and other equipment at a fairly constant rate, including the last few days. What has changed is Russians currently destroying few Ukraine tanks etc. See https://www.engineereddata.com/go-ukraine.html
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 27,172
  • Options
    MattWMattW Posts: 18,902
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+0.5)

    Macron (EC-RE): 58.5% (-1.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41.5% (+1.5)

    +/- vs. 22-25 March 2022
    Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022
    Sample size: 2,004"

    There's no way it'll be that close, surely?
    I've am £600 in the green when Le Pen wins. Being pro-Putin just isn't the liability it should be.
    It's all a bit interesting in France. This is from March 1st:


    https://ecfr.eu/article/how-russias-war-on-ukraine-is-shaping-the-french-presidential-race/
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,044
    Pensfold said:

    TimT said:

    Oryx's numbers going up quite rapidly now. Wondering if this is that he has got some help with the backlog, or if, as would be expected, and army on the run is losing more kit than it was when attacking.

    333 tanks down ...

    https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

    Up to 335 now....
    Oryx has been busy. Now 340 Russian tanks that Russia has lost....
    Ukraine destroying Russian tanks and other equipment at a fairly constant rate, including the last few days. What has changed is Russians currently destroying few Ukraine tanks etc. See https://www.engineereddata.com/go-ukraine.html
    From the number of Russian tanks captured by the Ukranians, it appears that the defenders now have more vehicles than when the war started. Even if many of the captured tanks are more than a bit crap, some of them just got fuelled up and painted with blue and yellow stripes ;)
  • Options
    StillWatersStillWaters Posts: 7,162

    TimT said:

    BigRich said:

    rcs1000 said:

    TimT said:

    Every now and then, I like to check on my erstwhile colleague who went over to the dark side about 20 years ago, Scott Ritter.

    Here he explains how the Russian plan is going brilliantly:

    https://twitter.com/RealScottRitter/status/1508813631311466496

    It's a good piece.

    And if the Russian's hadn't lost a quite ridiculous amount of materiel, and seen an elite paratroop unit completely wiped out at Kyiv airport, then it would be quite plausible.

    Because dropping 1,000 paratroopers at an airport, and then failing to get regular troops anywhere near the airport before they were killed, seems like an odd feint. Or, at the very least a rather unnecessary one.
    Where he is right is that the Russians are, even if not by design, likely tying up Ukrainian forces in the wrong places "just in case".
    yes, while the twitter trend is tying to make a point of Russian skill and is very unconvincing in that, it is non the less the case that the Ukrainians have mostly been tied up along a long front with most of there offensive capacity taking small amounts of territory around Kyie wile the Russians have built there land bridge, and almost destroyed/captured all of Mariupol,

    ones the rest of Mariupol falls, probably in the next few days, Putin will never give it up in negotiations, or referendum, and the Ukrainians don't appear strong enough to retake it. perhaps if the Ukrainians had redeployed all available forces there last week while most of the city was still in Ukrainian hands they could have broken though, but feeling less likely now.
    You are probably right.

    But with or without Mariupol, the Russian land bridge is narrow and critically dependent on just a few roads. At the very least it is extremely vulnerable to harrying ambushes of logistics travelling on these routes. Should the Ukrainians ever get decent artillery and ground attack air capabilities, it will be shooting fish in a barrel.
    I've read that the Russian forces round kyiv were there to divert some of ukraines forces to defend the city whilst the Russians concentrated on mariupol and the land bridge
    That’s what Russia is saying now…
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    Foxy said:

    RobD said:

    Andy_JS said:

    "Europe Elects
    @EuropeElects
    France, Ifop-Fiducial poll:

    Macron (EC-RE): 53% (-0.5)
    Le Pen (RN-ID): 47% (+0.5)

    Macron (EC-RE): 58.5% (-1.5)
    Mélenchon (LFI-LEFT): 41.5% (+1.5)

    +/- vs. 22-25 March 2022
    Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022
    Sample size: 2,004"

    There's no way it'll be that close, surely?
    I've am £600 in the green when Le Pen wins. Being pro-Putin just isn't the liability it should be.
    Imagine Le Pen in France, Trump in the US, and Putin in Ukraine. What a scary world ...
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    Its all hypothetical until the midterm elections.
    Midterm elections don't mean that much however. For example, Obama's Democrats lost in 2010, Clinton's Democrats lost in 1994, Reagan's GOP lost in 1982, however all 3 Presidents were re elected (albeit the GOP did lose in 2018 before Trump lost in 2020).

    Indeed, Trump/The Republicans gained seats in the Senate in 2018, before losing the Presidency just two years later.
    They lost the House though
    I'm not disagreeing, just saying you can't read too much into midterm election results.
    The pedant in me points out that you mean the opposite?
    I think you are saying that you can read too much into midterm election results.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    edited March 2022
    philiph said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Leon said:

    HYUFD said:
    I watched a couple of the latest Trump videos the other night: his speeches at rallies

    Worryingly - truly worryingly - there is no evidence of further cognitive decline (I know that sounds evil, but this is Trump). He seems more lucid, if anything. Smarter, sassier, sharper. Opposition suits him. He is happiest as the rebel fighting the Establishment (however absurd that actually is)

    His shtick on Putin kinda works, as well. "I know how these awful autocrats think, because I'm a bit like them, but I am an American, and I'm on your side, I'm not a naive fool like Biden who fucked up in Afghanistan, encouraging Putin"

    The narrative persuades, in its own way. As things stand I'd bet on him to beat Biden or Harris (who knows what history will bring next).

    If he wins, Jeez
    Its all hypothetical until the midterm elections.
    Midterm elections don't mean that much however. For example, Obama's Democrats lost in 2010, Clinton's Democrats lost in 1994, Reagan's GOP lost in 1982, however all 3 Presidents were re elected (albeit the GOP did lose in 2018 before Trump lost in 2020).

    Indeed, Trump/The Republicans gained seats in the Senate in 2018, before losing the Presidency just two years later.
    They lost the House though
    I'm not disagreeing, just saying you can't read too much into midterm election results.
    The pedant in me points out that you mean the opposite?
    I think you are saying that you can read too much into midterm election results.
    Or rather that one should not read too much into them.

    One of the most bizarre tweets I have seen on Twitter so far:

    Shame you don't know the facts about the Gary Glitter case because you believed the BBC.
    You support Ukraine Nazis because you believe the BBC propaganda about Mr Putin.


    I am really not sure that equating Putin to Gary Glitter serves quite the purpose that Putin supporter seems to think it does.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,256
    To give an idea of the scale of losses, Ukraine had 440 tanks lost/damaged fighting in two years of fighting in Donbass from 2014, and 1,201 infantry fighting vehicles.

    That's a heck of a lot. But Russia has lost nearly as many in five weeks fighting (and counting unacknowledged losses, probably more). It's also interesting that in that earlier conflict, Ukraine lost most to mines, rocket launchers and artillery. It *seems* the Russians are losing more to rockets.

    https://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-armored-vehicles-significantly-damaged-2-years-of-donbas-conflict/30429979.html
This discussion has been closed.