It’s almost certain now that Johnson won’t be fined by end of March – politicalbetting.com

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It’s almost certain now that Johnson won’t be fined by end of March – politicalbetting.com

The big political news today has of course been the fines issued by police for those who attended gatherings in breach of the lockdown regulations in place in 2020. This, of course, follows the so-called “partygate” revelations.

Read the full story here

FrancisUrquhart

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this. Increasingly common route is don't make / get injured young, go to uni and coaching badges, spend 10-15 years working your way up through coaching ranks.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro career. Same with the likes of Wenger and Mourinho.

Football is going through the same sort of data revolution seen in Baseball and Basketball, and those at the top are very different to the old days of scream and shout at players, 4-4-2 lads, they have a quick winger, watch out for him.

FrancisUrquhart

Although totally the norm now, I heard a story about how Big Sam ensured that stats in EPL became a thing. The only data company at the time couldn't get any real traction with the managers at the time and it was only Big Sam that embraced it. And years before anybody else he was lambasting players on the training pitch with talk of that outside pass will only result in an attempt on goal 14.45% of the time, the inside ball here will result in an attempt on goal 24.53% of the time.....

FrancisUrquhart

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro caeer. etc etc etc

Thats interesting. I guess that there shouldn't be a need to be a great player to be a great manager, and if you restrict it to those who have played at top level you reduce the pool of talent massively.

I know historically there has been a bit of an attitude that you only 'understand' football if you have played it, but thats probably slipping a bit now. Jose Mourinho as a trail blazer.

There is definitely still that attitude among a lot of football, but they are rapidly becoming dinosaurs. Brentford for example showed this, the manager an ex-city trader, they had a professional sports gambler devising the set pieces, the guy doing the transfers was also a data geek.

As TSE loves to tell us, loads of Liverpool backroom staff have been plucked from academic world of nuclear physicist, computer science, etc.

mwadams

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro caeer. etc etc etc

Thats interesting. I guess that there shouldn't be a need to be a great player to be a great manager, and if you restrict it to those who have played at top level you reduce the pool of talent massively.

I know historically there has been a bit of an attitude that you only 'understand' football if you have played it, but thats probably slipping a bit now. Jose Mourinho as a trail blazer.

There is definitely still that attitude among a lot of football, but they are rapidly becoming dinosaurs. Brentford for example showed this, the manager an ex-city trader, they had a professional sports gambler devising the set pieces, the guy doing the transfers was also a data geek.

As TSE loves to tell us, loads of Liverpool backroom staff have been plucked from academic world of nuclear physicist, computer science, etc.

Do you ever get the feeling everyone else has left the room and you didn't notice?

Gary_Burton

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

FrancisUrquhart

Awkward...

“He gotta wax his head every morning.” Now this is a video of Will Smith saying a joke about someone with Alopecia.
https://twitter.com/Peter_OKH/status/1508397406202863617?s=20&t=qOZONVmjSzUtPIeZ091K_w

MarqueeMark

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro caeer. etc etc etc

Thats interesting. I guess that there shouldn't be a need to be a great player to be a great manager, and if you restrict it to those who have played at top level you reduce the pool of talent massively.

I know historically there has been a bit of an attitude that you only 'understand' football if you have played it, but thats probably slipping a bit now. Jose Mourinho as a trail blazer.

There is definitely still that attitude among a lot of football, but they are rapidly becoming dinosaurs. Brentford for example showed this, the manager an ex-city trader, they had a professional sports gambler devising the set pieces, the guy doing the transfers was also a data geek.

As TSE loves to tell us, loads of Liverpool backroom staff have been plucked from academic world of nuclear physicist, computer science, etc.

"It's not rocket science."

"It is at LFC...."

TimT

FPT: Best comment on Oryx's thread:

FT is reporting the two sides are close to a 1-week ceasefire agreement "to let Oryx take a day off and then clear out his backlog"

FrancisUrquhart

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro caeer. etc etc etc

Thats interesting. I guess that there shouldn't be a need to be a great player to be a great manager, and if you restrict it to those who have played at top level you reduce the pool of talent massively.

I know historically there has been a bit of an attitude that you only 'understand' football if you have played it, but thats probably slipping a bit now. Jose Mourinho as a trail blazer.

There is definitely still that attitude among a lot of football, but they are rapidly becoming dinosaurs. Brentford for example showed this, the manager an ex-city trader, they had a professional sports gambler devising the set pieces, the guy doing the transfers was also a data geek.

As TSE loves to tell us, loads of Liverpool backroom staff have been plucked from academic world of nuclear physicist, computer science, etc.

"It's not rocket science."

"It is at LFC...."

The geeks are taking over the world.

TimT

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro caeer. etc etc etc

Thats interesting. I guess that there shouldn't be a need to be a great player to be a great manager, and if you restrict it to those who have played at top level you reduce the pool of talent massively.

I know historically there has been a bit of an attitude that you only 'understand' football if you have played it, but thats probably slipping a bit now. Jose Mourinho as a trail blazer.

There is definitely still that attitude among a lot of football, but they are rapidly becoming dinosaurs. Brentford for example showed this, the manager an ex-city trader, they had a professional sports gambler devising the set pieces, the guy doing the transfers was also a data geek.

As TSE loves to tell us, loads of Liverpool backroom staff have been plucked from academic world of nuclear physicist, computer science, etc.

"It's not rocket science."

"It is at LFC...."

They used to go into Wall Street, now it's LFC?

FrancisUrquhart

TimT said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro caeer. etc etc etc

Thats interesting. I guess that there shouldn't be a need to be a great player to be a great manager, and if you restrict it to those who have played at top level you reduce the pool of talent massively.

I know historically there has been a bit of an attitude that you only 'understand' football if you have played it, but thats probably slipping a bit now. Jose Mourinho as a trail blazer.

There is definitely still that attitude among a lot of football, but they are rapidly becoming dinosaurs. Brentford for example showed this, the manager an ex-city trader, they had a professional sports gambler devising the set pieces, the guy doing the transfers was also a data geek.

As TSE loves to tell us, loads of Liverpool backroom staff have been plucked from academic world of nuclear physicist, computer science, etc.

"It's not rocket science."

"It is at LFC...."

They used to go into Wall Street, now it's LFC?

The bad ones its KFC...

turbotubbs

FrancisUrquhart said:

Awkward...

“He gotta wax his head every morning.” Now this is a video of Will Smith saying a joke about someone with Alopecia.
https://twitter.com/Peter_OKH/status/1508397406202863617?s=20&t=qOZONVmjSzUtPIeZ091K_w

The whole thing has not been the finest hour for either of them. I still think the best thing is Smith laughing at the joke initially, then realizing that his wife was not happy.

JosiasJessop

FrancisUrquhart said:

Awkward...

“He gotta wax his head every morning.” Now this is a video of Will Smith saying a joke about someone with Alopecia.
https://twitter.com/Peter_OKH/status/1508397406202863617?s=20&t=qOZONVmjSzUtPIeZ091K_w

As I said yesterday morning, I think there's going to be a lot more stuff coming out about Will Smith. You don't just react that violently once.

Sandpit

FrancisUrquhart said:

Awkward...

“He gotta wax his head every morning.” Now this is a video of Will Smith saying a joke about someone with Alopecia.
https://twitter.com/Peter_OKH/status/1508397406202863617?s=20&t=qOZONVmjSzUtPIeZ091K_w

“Oh, these are jokes, come on…”

FrancisUrquhart

Another one caught via EncroChat hack..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/29/drug-cartel-boss-ran-30m-smuggling-operation-bullet-proof-staffordshire/

Whoever leaked the info that EncroChat had been comprised (I believe an individual has been charged) cut off the possibility of even more widespread takedown of serious criminality.

Carnyx

Off topic but I had an email from the National Archives about this intriguing new development (and it does have implications for pol, econ and sociological work):

https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/about/news/safepod-for-data-research-available-at-kew/?utm_source=emailmarketing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=research_and_academic_engagement__march_news&utm_content=2022-03-29

"We have today become one of the first places in the UK to host a SafePod for data research.

A SafePod is a small prefabricated room, which provides the necessary security and controls to enable a researcher to access and work on data that requires secure access. In most cases no data needs to be held inside a SafePod, and instead access is provided by secure remote connection to the dataset-holding organisation’s server.

A wealth of government datasets, as well as study and survey datasets, are available for secure access from SafePods. These include new linked datasets created by Administrative Data Research UK (ADR UK) projects, such as the ground-breaking Data First programme at the Ministry of Justice, and the majority of datasets held by the Office for National Statistics’ Secure Research Service, the UK Data Service and SAIL Databank.

The security of data used for research is vital, as many of the datasets in question are based on the administrative records of millions of people across the UK. Strict controls are already in place for their research use, and the datasets are either de-identified or anonymised before they can be used."

Gardenwalker

Ukraine is proposing to resolve the status of Crimea by “diplomatic and political means” over 15 years.

bondegezou

To answer my question on the last thread, the Guardian says…

“The [no. 10] spokesperson said that, although No 10 will announce if Johnson is issued a fine, it will not release the names of anyone else who might get a fine. That means that people like Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, or Carrie Johnson, the PM’s wife, could be fined without the public being told.
“The spokesperson said No 10 staff have not been told they must disclose it to their managers if they receive a fine. But disclosure might be necessary for security vetting purposes, the spokesperson suggested.”

Stark_Dawning

JosiasJessop said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Awkward...

“He gotta wax his head every morning.” Now this is a video of Will Smith saying a joke about someone with Alopecia.
https://twitter.com/Peter_OKH/status/1508397406202863617?s=20&t=qOZONVmjSzUtPIeZ091K_w

As I said yesterday morning, I think there's going to be a lot more stuff coming out about Will Smith. You don't just react that violently once.

Chris Rock is a johnny-come-lately! Bernard Levin got there sixty years ago:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3EelRI_oRPY

Sunil_Prasannan

FrancisUrquhart said:

TimT said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro caeer. etc etc etc

Thats interesting. I guess that there shouldn't be a need to be a great player to be a great manager, and if you restrict it to those who have played at top level you reduce the pool of talent massively.

I know historically there has been a bit of an attitude that you only 'understand' football if you have played it, but thats probably slipping a bit now. Jose Mourinho as a trail blazer.

There is definitely still that attitude among a lot of football, but they are rapidly becoming dinosaurs. Brentford for example showed this, the manager an ex-city trader, they had a professional sports gambler devising the set pieces, the guy doing the transfers was also a data geek.

As TSE loves to tell us, loads of Liverpool backroom staff have been plucked from academic world of nuclear physicist, computer science, etc.

"It's not rocket science."

"It is at LFC...."

They used to go into Wall Street, now it's LFC?

The bad ones its KFC...

In Kathmandu, there's KKFC.

Sunil_Prasannan

Sandpit said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Awkward...

“He gotta wax his head every morning.” Now this is a video of Will Smith saying a joke about someone with Alopecia.
https://twitter.com/Peter_OKH/status/1508397406202863617?s=20&t=qOZONVmjSzUtPIeZ091K_w

“Oh, these are jokes, come on…”

He punched that alien in Independence Day: "Welcome to Earth!"

biggles

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

I wonder if he’s concerned about actual or apparent links to Russia and has decided on a period of quiet reflection.

Actually no, what am I saying? No way he’s doing that.

MarqueeMark

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

Day trip to Barnard Castle?

biggles

bondegezou said:

To answer my question on the last thread, the Guardian says…

“The [no. 10] spokesperson said that, although No 10 will announce if Johnson is issued a fine, it will not release the names of anyone else who might get a fine. That means that people like Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, or Carrie Johnson, the PM’s wife, could be fined without the public being told.
“The spokesperson said No 10 staff have not been told they must disclose it to their managers if they receive a fine. But disclosure might be necessary for security vetting purposes, the spokesperson suggested.”

That’s not sustainable if you’re someone like Case or any other senior official. You’ll go in front of a Select Committee and they’ll ask you.

TimT

TimT said:

FPT: Best comment on Oryx's thread:

FT is reporting the two sides are close to a 1-week ceasefire agreement "to let Oryx take a day off and then clear out his backlog"

Reading through some of the analysis, this is probably the main reason for the Russian's change of tune:

The elite 4th Guards tanks division is thought to have lost at least (i.e. with geolocated, time-stamped photographic proof) 46 T-80U tanks overall. 4th GTD has 3 tank and 1 infantry battalions, and it was them that were hit so badly at Trostynets, losing 60+ vehicles of all types as confirmed by Onyx in that one engagement. Reports are that all of its battalions have suffered losses.

What that indicates to me is that these 'tip of the spear' units are now so degraded in fighting ability and cohesion that once engaged, as in Trostynets, they are losing very badly.

If this has happened to the most elite tank division in Russia, it must have shaken the military establishment to its very core.

Richard_Tyndall

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

biggles

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Oh, ok. It’s just that no one has finished reading and decoding it yet. I guess he just has nothing new.

TimT

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Is anyone paying any attention to him any more?

tlg86

FrancisUrquhart said:

Another one caught via EncroChat hack..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/03/29/drug-cartel-boss-ran-30m-smuggling-operation-bullet-proof-staffordshire/

Whoever leaked the info that EncroChat had been comprised (I believe an individual has been charged) cut off the possibility of even more widespread takedown of serious criminality.

Bunch of wrong'uns in Staffordshire...

TimT

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TimT said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro caeer. etc etc etc

Thats interesting. I guess that there shouldn't be a need to be a great player to be a great manager, and if you restrict it to those who have played at top level you reduce the pool of talent massively.

I know historically there has been a bit of an attitude that you only 'understand' football if you have played it, but thats probably slipping a bit now. Jose Mourinho as a trail blazer.

There is definitely still that attitude among a lot of football, but they are rapidly becoming dinosaurs. Brentford for example showed this, the manager an ex-city trader, they had a professional sports gambler devising the set pieces, the guy doing the transfers was also a data geek.

As TSE loves to tell us, loads of Liverpool backroom staff have been plucked from academic world of nuclear physicist, computer science, etc.

"It's not rocket science."

"It is at LFC...."

They used to go into Wall Street, now it's LFC?

The bad ones its KFC...

In Kathmandu, there's KKFC.

I would imagine that in Peshawar there is a KPFC somewhere ...

MattW

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro caeer. etc etc etc

Thats interesting. I guess that there shouldn't be a need to be a great player to be a great manager, and if you restrict it to those who have played at top level you reduce the pool of talent massively.

I know historically there has been a bit of an attitude that you only 'understand' football if you have played it, but thats probably slipping a bit now. Jose Mourinho as a trail blazer.

There is definitely still that attitude among a lot of football, but they are rapidly becoming dinosaurs. Brentford for example showed this, the manager an ex-city trader, they had a professional sports gambler devising the set pieces, the guy doing the transfers was also a data geek.

As TSE loves to tell us, loads of Liverpool backroom staff have been plucked from academic world of nuclear physicist, computer science, etc.

"It's not rocket science."

"It is at LFC...."

Good job rocket science moves more quickly than "15-20 years later" for actual rocket programmes.

Gardenwalker

TimT said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Is anyone paying any attention to him any more?

He’s run out of material.

tlg86

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Awkward...

“He gotta wax his head every morning.” Now this is a video of Will Smith saying a joke about someone with Alopecia.
https://twitter.com/Peter_OKH/status/1508397406202863617?s=20&t=qOZONVmjSzUtPIeZ091K_w

The whole thing has not been the finest hour for either of them. I still think the best thing is Smith laughing at the joke initially, then realizing that his wife was not happy.

In a parallel universe, he's getting cancelled for laughing at his wife's expense.

Scott_xP

From the Spectator - to which my answer is …. It’s like everything else, just because you identify as a thing doesn’t mean you are it! https://twitter.com/AnnFuredi/status/1508804700652675077/photo/1

MarqueeMark

TimT said:

TimT said:

FPT: Best comment on Oryx's thread:

FT is reporting the two sides are close to a 1-week ceasefire agreement "to let Oryx take a day off and then clear out his backlog"

Reading through some of the analysis, this is probably the main reason for the Russian's change of tune:

The elite 4th Guards tanks division is thought to have lost at least (i.e. with geolocated, time-stamped photographic proof) 46 T-80U tanks overall. 4th GTD has 3 tank and 1 infantry battalions, and it was them that were hit so badly at Trostynets, losing 60+ vehicles of all types as confirmed by Onyx in that one engagement. Reports are that all of its battalions have suffered losses.

What that indicates to me is that these 'tip of the spear' units are now so degraded in fighting ability and cohesion that once engaged, as in Trostynets, they are losing very badly.

If this has happened to the most elite tank division in Russia, it must have shaken the military establishment to its very core.

As I commented previously, it's like the UK losing the Guards, 2 Para and the Royal Marines as effective fighting forces. And now throw in the SAS as well. The generals (those still with a pulse) would be reeling.

MattW

Gardenwalker said:

Ukraine is proposing to resolve the status of Crimea by “diplomatic and political means” over 15 years.

Which presumably means a withdrawal to boundaries of the 2014 invasion by Russia as a first ceasefire live?

What about the 2 'separatist' areas with Russia's fake referendum in 2014/5, following their vote in support of Ukrainian independence in 1994 (ish) ?

algarkirk

Scott_xP said:

From the Spectator - to which my answer is …. It’s like everything else, just because you identify as a thing doesn’t mean you are it! https://twitter.com/AnnFuredi/status/1508804700652675077/photo/1

It's a famously insoluble issue, a discussion going back thousands of years. Is an apple an apple because we agree to call it one, or does 'apple' stand for every item which participates in a nature called 'appleness' and so its an apple because of its nature, not its name and would still be an apple if you called it a cat.

Looks like this problem (universals) which is usually regarded as insoluble but unimportant is coming back to life.

Richard_Tyndall

TimT said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Is anyone paying any attention to him any more?

I find his insights interesting for anyone who wants another view of what was happening inside Government and also his ideas on how Government doesn't work.

I am not sure if there will be anymore of the big revelations. To be honest in any sane world the ones he has already made should have been enough to see Johnson defenestrated but it appears we are content to have openly corrupt and criminal leaders these days.

noneoftheabove

biggles said:

bondegezou said:

To answer my question on the last thread, the Guardian says…

“The [no. 10] spokesperson said that, although No 10 will announce if Johnson is issued a fine, it will not release the names of anyone else who might get a fine. That means that people like Simon Case, the cabinet secretary, or Carrie Johnson, the PM’s wife, could be fined without the public being told.
“The spokesperson said No 10 staff have not been told they must disclose it to their managers if they receive a fine. But disclosure might be necessary for security vetting purposes, the spokesperson suggested.”

That’s not sustainable if you’re someone like Case or any other senior official. You’ll go in front of a Select Committee and they’ll ask you.

Standard operating protocol is to open another inquiry. Then he can simply say it would be wrong to comment until the inquiry is finished. Indeed the Sue Gray inquiry is still ongoing and we all have learnt how wrong it is to comment before she has told us what we did.

So the follow up inquiry probably does not need to start til 2023, reporting in 2024 by which time it will be too late anyway.

DecrepiterJohnL

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Dominic Cummings has stopped using Twitter so if Twitter is the real world, Cummings will seem to be quiet. As you say, he is emailing, substacking and Q&A-ing. His latest idea is the MAD doctrine of nuclear deterrence is badly flawed and we're all going to die.

Nigelb

Is this to be taken at face value ?

Turkey says that a deal is looking closer.

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Moscow says it will ‘drastically reduce military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-live-updates-putin-moscow-kremlin-zelenskiy-kyiv-russian-invasion

MaxPB

Nigelb said:

Is this to be taken at face value ?

Turkey says that a deal is looking closer.

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Moscow says it will ‘drastically reduce military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-live-updates-putin-moscow-kremlin-zelenskiy-kyiv-russian-invasion

Nah, they're dressing up a retreat from those two as part of a peace process but it's probably to reinforce other parts of the invasion force that have been hollowed out.

Richard_Tyndall

Anyone follow Darth Putin on twitter?

Very funny. His latest:

"For Peace NATO will have to guarantee Russian security by not allowing Ukraine to establish bases on its territory."

Nigel_Foremain

biggles said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

I wonder if he’s concerned about actual or apparent links to Russia and has decided on a period of quiet reflection.

Actually no, what am I saying? No way he’s doing that.

He is on record of having a substantial amount of links there

Richard_Tyndall

algarkirk said:

Scott_xP said:

From the Spectator - to which my answer is …. It’s like everything else, just because you identify as a thing doesn’t mean you are it! https://twitter.com/AnnFuredi/status/1508804700652675077/photo/1

It's a famously insoluble issue, a discussion going back thousands of years. Is an apple an apple because we agree to call it one, or does 'apple' stand for every item which participates in a nature called 'appleness' and so its an apple because of its nature, not its name and would still be an apple if you called it a cat.

Looks like this problem (universals) which is usually regarded as insoluble but unimportant is coming back to life.

Plato's Theory of Forms.

TheWhiteRabbit

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Is this to be taken at face value ?

Turkey says that a deal is looking closer.

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Moscow says it will ‘drastically reduce military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-live-updates-putin-moscow-kremlin-zelenskiy-kyiv-russian-invasion

Nah, they're dressing up a retreat from those two as part of a peace process but it's probably to reinforce other parts of the invasion force that have been hollowed out.

True, but that doesn't mean a deal isn't closer. A ceasefire certainly is, because a ceasefire could be agreed by Russia as a tactical step without the expectation of a peace deal.

Nigelb

Thread on Ukraine's proposals.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1508791874756263949
What’s the Ukraine proposal?

1- Guarantors will intervene if Russia attacks after three days of consultations. They may provide arms, or impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine

2- In return, Ukraine becomes non-aligned, non-nuclear state, with no foreign bases but can join EU

3 - Ukraine, Russia to discuss the status of Crimea for the next 15 years. Ukraine won’t use violence to resolve the issue

4- Putin, Zelensky will personally discuss Donbas dispute.

Russia says security guarantees won’t cover Crimea and Donbas

How is it going to be ratified?

5- Ukraine will hold a referendum on the deal. If people approve it, then the guarantors will pass it through their individual parliaments

DecrepiterJohnL

On-topic, the other problem with the fining Boris market is that unless he fesses up, we'll never know, since the police have decided not to name anyone.

tlg86

@FrancisUrquhart

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/mar/29/nfl-says-all-32-teams-must-have-minority-offensive-coach-this-season

The NFL announced on Monday that all 32 teams must have a minority assistant on their offensive staffs for the 2022 season, a new requirement under the league’s Rooney Rule.

Andy_JS

"Angela Rayner says it is 'unacceptable' to ask a trans woman if they have a penis but you can ask trans men if they're pregnant - as she warns that gender row will 'damage people'"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10663205/Angela-Rayner-says-unacceptable-ask-trans-woman-penis.html

FrancisUrquhart

tlg86 said:

@FrancisUrquhart

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/mar/29/nfl-says-all-32-teams-must-have-minority-offensive-coach-this-season

The NFL announced on Monday that all 32 teams must have a minority assistant on their offensive staffs for the 2022 season, a new requirement under the league’s Rooney Rule.

Regressive step, re-treading mandated affirmative action hiring. The requirement to interview is one thing, but telling every team you must have this type of person in this specific role isn't the way forward.

FrancisUrquhart

Evgeny Lebedev has just confirmed earlier reports that Sir Keir actually congratulated him for his Lords appointment back in 2020

https://order-order.com/2022/03/29/lebedev-starmer-congratulated-me-on-elevation-to-lords/

TimT

Interesting interview with a Bellingcat journalist on the nature of the Azov movement and how it is seen by other far right groups globally

https://icct.nl/publication/ukraine-bellingcat-journalist-michael-colborne/

BigRich

MattW said:

Gardenwalker said:

Ukraine is proposing to resolve the status of Crimea by “diplomatic and political means” over 15 years.

Which presumably means a withdrawal to boundaries of the 2014 invasion by Russia as a first ceasefire live?

What about the 2 'separatist' areas with Russia's fake referendum in 2014/5, following their vote in support of Ukrainian independence in 1994 (ish) ?

Russia probably has little interest in the areas north of the capital and to the north east of the country, beyond a bargaining position, however there is IMHO no chance that they will withdrew in the south, where both logic and there actions show they what a) the secure water supply to the Crimea, and b) the land bridge/full cost of the sea of Azov. both of which have more strategic impotence. as too the rest of the territory of the 2 Donbass republics, even though that was the 'official' reason for the war, I think there more mixed in opinions, if they got it then it would be even easier to present this as a win, but they are pretty poor areas with a population that is not particularly pre-Putin.

I am anticipating, the Russians capturing, the rest of Mariupol, and then just wafting this out, with the occasional missile or artillery barrage, in to Ukraine. possibly push forward in to more of the Donbass, but mostly wait. and repel Ukrainian attacks, at least in areas that Russia hopes to keep at the end.

We like to tell ourselves that we are crushing the Russian economy, the Russian economy is hearing, but not nearly as much as the Ukrainian. we like to tell ourselves that Russia has taken huge casualty's, and it has, but so has Ukraine, and so on.

Sadly, this looks like a win for Russia. and it did not need to be, Germany instead of planning to spend 100 billion euros extra on defence, could have armed the Ukrainians properly for 5 billion.

Nigelb

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Is this to be taken at face value ?

Turkey says that a deal is looking closer.

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Moscow says it will ‘drastically reduce military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-live-updates-putin-moscow-kremlin-zelenskiy-kyiv-russian-invasion

Nah, they're dressing up a retreat from those two as part of a peace process but it's probably to reinforce other parts of the invasion force that have been hollowed out.

That's certainly a possibility, and Putin is probably one of the least trustworthy interlocutors on the planet.

But it's also possible that he perceives a quick deal, rather than a long drawn out potential loss of a hideously expensive war, as a net benefit to himself.

Hard to predict.

FrancisUrquhart

TimT said:

Interesting interview with a Bellingcat journalist on the nature of the Azov movement and how it is seen by other far right groups globally

https://icct.nl/publication/ukraine-bellingcat-journalist-michael-colborne/

Would have liked to hear more details. Suppose have to read the book.

Nigelb

Richard_Tyndall said:

Anyone follow Darth Putin on twitter?

Very funny. His latest:

"For Peace NATO will have to guarantee Russian security by not allowing Ukraine to establish bases on its territory."

I prefer Kaputin.

Scott_xP

Matt Handycock should STFU

Matt Hancock says he doesn’t think PM should resign even if he’s fined by police.

Worth remembering just how strident ministers were about rule breaking at the time. For instance, Matt Hancock 10th January 2021: “Every time you try to flex the rules, that could be fatal.” https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1508815077574594575

DecrepiterJohnL

FrancisUrquhart said:

Evgeny Lebedev has just confirmed earlier reports that Sir Keir actually congratulated him for his Lords appointment back in 2020

https://order-order.com/2022/03/29/lebedev-starmer-congratulated-me-on-elevation-to-lords/

Did Starmer get the same MI5 briefing that Boris overruled?

rottenborough

Scott_xP said:

Matt Handycock should STFU

Matt Hancock says he doesn’t think PM should resign even if he’s fined by police.

Worth remembering just how strident ministers were about rule breaking at the time. For instance, Matt Hancock 10th January 2021: “Every time you try to flex the rules, that could be fatal.” https://twitter.com/jessbrammar/status/1508815077574594575

The message is simple, stay at home. Etc etc.

Hancock desperate to be back in the fold I guess. I mean, the humiliation. He was forced to resign because he was groping his assistant at work during lockdown. That seems a ton less serious that repeatedly organizing parties with dozens of people from all over whitehall.

rottenborough

MarqueeMark said:

TimT said:

TimT said:

FPT: Best comment on Oryx's thread:

FT is reporting the two sides are close to a 1-week ceasefire agreement "to let Oryx take a day off and then clear out his backlog"

Reading through some of the analysis, this is probably the main reason for the Russian's change of tune:

The elite 4th Guards tanks division is thought to have lost at least (i.e. with geolocated, time-stamped photographic proof) 46 T-80U tanks overall. 4th GTD has 3 tank and 1 infantry battalions, and it was them that were hit so badly at Trostynets, losing 60+ vehicles of all types as confirmed by Onyx in that one engagement. Reports are that all of its battalions have suffered losses.

What that indicates to me is that these 'tip of the spear' units are now so degraded in fighting ability and cohesion that once engaged, as in Trostynets, they are losing very badly.

If this has happened to the most elite tank division in Russia, it must have shaken the military establishment to its very core.

As I commented previously, it's like the UK losing the Guards, 2 Para and the Royal Marines as effective fighting forces. And now throw in the SAS as well. The generals (those still with a pulse) would be reeling.

Well, they know what to do.

biggles

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Dominic Cummings has stopped using Twitter so if Twitter is the real world, Cummings will seem to be quiet. As you say, he is emailing, substacking and Q&A-ing. His latest idea is the MAD doctrine of nuclear deterrence is badly flawed and we're all going to die.

There a lot in what you say in your first sentence. Our media has got used to being willing to highlight any old shit put on Twitter. It’s editorial faculties are, perhaps, more intact for random crap spread elsewhere.

biggles

I think what really matters in any Ukraine peace deal is that we ensure no western nations twist Ukraine’s arm to accept something it otherwise would have said no to. We need to be clear that Ukraine is in charge and we will back any position it takes up to and including “no dice, piss off out of my country”. Any compromise must one made through free choice, noting the military facts on the ground.

kinabalu

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Dominic Cummings has stopped using Twitter so if Twitter is the real world, Cummings will seem to be quiet. As you say, he is emailing, substacking and Q&A-ing. His latest idea is the MAD doctrine of nuclear deterrence is badly flawed and we're all going to die.

Oh no, just when I'd gone the other way! I started off thinking it fatally flawed, then got to where I am now - that it not only works but it's the only thing which can work as long as WMD nukes exist.

I worked hard to get here too. It was key to peace of mind. So I will NOT be reading Cummings on the matter.

FrancisUrquhart

DecrepiterJohnL said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Evgeny Lebedev has just confirmed earlier reports that Sir Keir actually congratulated him for his Lords appointment back in 2020

https://order-order.com/2022/03/29/lebedev-starmer-congratulated-me-on-elevation-to-lords/

Did Starmer get the same MI5 briefing that Boris overruled?

What is a tad embarrassing is the revisionist history of some that seem to be wanting to say well we always knew certain people should never have been welcomed into the UK fold and I never go near them.

So many of the establishment from Boris to Osborne, Mandelson, Khan, Starmer, were all happy to buddy up to the likes of Lebedev, Abramovich and Deripaska, now wanting to claim well obviously they were always to close to the Putin regime and should never have been embraced.

TheScreamingEagles

Just for @FrancisUrquhart, this is the LFC model, put a man from the finest university in the world in charge and see the magic.

The key men

Ian Graham

A doctor in the field of theoretical physics - a status gained by completing a PhD at the University of Cambridge in early 2005 - he was brought in to collect, organise and analyse bespoke data for the football side of the business, which Liverpool didn’t have. Graham started from scratch, with recruitment the key area of his focus but he had the backing of the ownership group and Edwards.

Building the tools for surgical recruitment was his first major task. Working initially under the supervision of Edwards on his own, Graham now runs a team of six.

Will Spearman

The lead data scientist grew up in Texas and has a doctorate in high-energy physics at Harvard. He worked for the European Organisation for Nuclear Research and is in charge of long-term, on-pitch research at Liverpool.

His expertise is in pioneering new ways to analyse spatial models and developing pitch control. Spearman sparked Graham’s interest through an Opta Pro analytics forum, while employed by Hudl and studying player tracking data.

Tim Waskett

He holds a first-class honours degree in astrophysics and was Graham’s first hire.

Dafydd Steele

The former junior chess champion and energy industry professional completes the data science side of the team.

Mark Howlett and Mark Stevenson are responsible for the technology, maintaining the databases and building the research website.

Why it works

Many football clubs have an analytics department, but not all of them are empowered. There is still a high level of distrust in stats or a dismissive take on ‘laptop nerds.’ At Liverpool, traditional methods and a cutting edge have combined to powerful effect because as one source states “there’s a clear, strong decision-making process where the club wants to get as much information as possible from all the experts, rather than just wanting to check a box and say, ‘Oh, we have that’. There hasn’t been any turf guarding or fear of new approaches or new ways to look at things.”

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/liverpool/transfers-recruitment-jurgen-klopp-b1760916.html

biggles

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Dominic Cummings has stopped using Twitter so if Twitter is the real world, Cummings will seem to be quiet. As you say, he is emailing, substacking and Q&A-ing. His latest idea is the MAD doctrine of nuclear deterrence is badly flawed and we're all going to die.

Oh no, just when I'd gone the other way! I started off thinking it fatally flawed, then got to where I am now - that it not only works but it's the only thing which can work as long as WMD nukes exist.

I worked hard to get here too. It was key to peace of mind. So I will NOT be reading Cummings on the matter.

Your last sentence is wise advice on any subject.

FrancisUrquhart

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just for @FrancisUrquhart, this is the LFC model, put a man from the finest university in the world in charge and see the magic.

https://www.independent.co.uk/sport/football/premier-league/liverpool/transfers-recruitment-jurgen-klopp-b1760916.html

"Many football clubs have an analytics department, but not all of them are empowered. There is still a high level of distrust in stats or a dismissive take on ‘laptop nerds."

I think this is already an outdated take. StatsBomb has grown like crazy in the past couple of years and still doing so. Literally every club / international team are hoovering up all their data like there is no tomorrow.

Theuniondivvie

TimT said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TimT said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro caeer. etc etc etc

Thats interesting. I guess that there shouldn't be a need to be a great player to be a great manager, and if you restrict it to those who have played at top level you reduce the pool of talent massively.

I know historically there has been a bit of an attitude that you only 'understand' football if you have played it, but thats probably slipping a bit now. Jose Mourinho as a trail blazer.

There is definitely still that attitude among a lot of football, but they are rapidly becoming dinosaurs. Brentford for example showed this, the manager an ex-city trader, they had a professional sports gambler devising the set pieces, the guy doing the transfers was also a data geek.

As TSE loves to tell us, loads of Liverpool backroom staff have been plucked from academic world of nuclear physicist, computer science, etc.

"It's not rocket science."

"It is at LFC...."

They used to go into Wall Street, now it's LFC?

The bad ones its KFC...

In Kathmandu, there's KKFC.

I would imagine that in Peshawar there is a KPFC somewhere ...

Wouldn’t be surprised if Kentucky had a KKKKFC.

TimT

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Is this to be taken at face value ?

Turkey says that a deal is looking closer.

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Moscow says it will ‘drastically reduce military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-live-updates-putin-moscow-kremlin-zelenskiy-kyiv-russian-invasion

Nah, they're dressing up a retreat from those two as part of a peace process but it's probably to reinforce other parts of the invasion force that have been hollowed out.

If their frontline units have taken 25-40% losses, as seems to be the case, then even if withdrawn from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, they will need some time to regroup before being committed to the front line again. And they will be further attrited during their retreat under fire.

There is some evidence that the Russian forces have already run through their normal reserve units, as T-60 tanks, presumably resurrected from storage, are now turning up dead on the battlefield.

rottenborough

TASS
@tassagency_en

Russia state-affiliated media
Russian top brass decides to decrease military activity in direction of Kiev, Chernigov:

https://twitter.com/tassagency_en/status/1508813745681797128

Taz

tlg86 said:

@FrancisUrquhart

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/mar/29/nfl-says-all-32-teams-must-have-minority-offensive-coach-this-season

The NFL announced on Monday that all 32 teams must have a minority assistant on their offensive staffs for the 2022 season, a new requirement under the league’s Rooney Rule.

Good, a progressive move, as long as these people get substantive roles and not just paid positions with no influence.

Must admit I thought Rooneys rule was something to do with Grannies.

rottenborough

TimT said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Is this to be taken at face value ?

Turkey says that a deal is looking closer.

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Moscow says it will ‘drastically reduce military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-live-updates-putin-moscow-kremlin-zelenskiy-kyiv-russian-invasion

Nah, they're dressing up a retreat from those two as part of a peace process but it's probably to reinforce other parts of the invasion force that have been hollowed out.

If their frontline units have taken 25-40% losses, as seems to be the case, then even if withdrawn from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, they will need some time to regroup before being committed to the front line again. And they will be further attrited during their retreat under fire.

There is some evidence that the Russian forces have already run through their normal reserve units, as T-60 tanks, presumably resurrected from storage, are now turning up dead on the battlefield.

The utter pointlessness and futility of all this is beyond words.

TimT

Theuniondivvie said:

TimT said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

TimT said:

MarqueeMark said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

turbotubbs said:

Taz said:

turbotubbs said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

It was very unpopular for England to take the knee here as I recall. Weird how that all went quiet

I think it lacked a bit of context at the time, and the players have made their case very well. You may not agree but the actions of some over the 'black lives matter' campaign were divisive for some people. There are still huge problems with racism in the UK, but many of us pride ourselves on the strides that have been taken in the last 40 years. We are nowhere near as bad as the USA, and so some of the nonsence that spread to here upset people.
Its right to continually look at history and learn from it. Colston has been a controversial figure in Bristol for many years. Churchill for many is an absolute hero, for others less so. He was a man of his time, and its hard to judge any historical figure by the standards of 2022.
What the footballers have done is win people over to their point of view, so well done them.

I think the soccer team pitched it perfectly and when the general public accepted it was a well meaning gesture against racism and not support for the extremists who wanted to defund the police it’s been warmly welcomed.

Just think. Engaging with people and explaining the reasoning rather than telling them they are all stupid bigots bore fruit. Shocked.

Quite. I think they have done very well.
That said there are still a lot of issues in football. The progression of players of colour after their playing career into coaching is in stark contrast to their manifold success on the field.

Interestingly, coaching is actually going the over way....Parallel track for those wanting to elite coaches and managers starts among those who never made it really made it as a pro. With the enormous increase in how sophificated the tactical / statistical side of the game is, we will increasing see those who have specialised in this.

We are already seeing it. John Herdman, Canada manager, never a pro. Steve Holland, England coach, no real pro career. Thomas Frank, Brentford manager, never a pro. Bruno Lage, no real pro career. Ralf Rangnick, limited pro career. Thomas Tuchel, limited pro caeer. etc etc etc

Thats interesting. I guess that there shouldn't be a need to be a great player to be a great manager, and if you restrict it to those who have played at top level you reduce the pool of talent massively.

I know historically there has been a bit of an attitude that you only 'understand' football if you have played it, but thats probably slipping a bit now. Jose Mourinho as a trail blazer.

There is definitely still that attitude among a lot of football, but they are rapidly becoming dinosaurs. Brentford for example showed this, the manager an ex-city trader, they had a professional sports gambler devising the set pieces, the guy doing the transfers was also a data geek.

As TSE loves to tell us, loads of Liverpool backroom staff have been plucked from academic world of nuclear physicist, computer science, etc.

"It's not rocket science."

"It is at LFC...."

They used to go into Wall Street, now it's LFC?

The bad ones its KFC...

In Kathmandu, there's KKFC.

I would imagine that in Peshawar there is a KPFC somewhere ...

Wouldn’t be surprised if Kentucky had a KKKKFC.

Presumably with two separate drive-throughs.

MaxPB

biggles said:

I think what really matters in any Ukraine peace deal is that we ensure no western nations twist Ukraine’s arm to accept something it otherwise would have said no to. We need to be clear that Ukraine is in charge and we will back any position it takes up to and including “no dice, piss off out of my country”. Any compromise must one made through free choice, noting the military facts on the ground.

Agree, I worry that Macron and Scholz will take on this role and then try and rehabilitate Russia far too soon, before we can trust them not to break the terms of any peace agreement.

Richard_Tyndall

biggles said:

I think what really matters in any Ukraine peace deal is that we ensure no western nations twist Ukraine’s arm to accept something it otherwise would have said no to. We need to be clear that Ukraine is in charge and we will back any position it takes up to and including “no dice, piss off out of my country”. Any compromise must one made through free choice, noting the military facts on the ground.

I agree with that to a large extent. My problem with it would be if it meant Putin made clear gains and demanded that the West drop sanctions as part of any deal. We should not force Ukraine to accept any deal against their wishes, that is true. But at the same time if any deal they accept is clearly against Western interests in that it rewards Putin for aggression then the West should have the right to say that we will accept the Ukraine making whatever deal it wants but that the West will not necessarily support it by lifting sanctions.

CarlottaVance

And in the spirit of transparency here is a text to me from @Keir_Starmer: ‘Congratulations on your elevation to the House of Lords. All best wishes, Keir.’

https://twitter.com/mrevgenylebedev/status/1508804181557190662

BigRich

biggles said:

I think what really matters in any Ukraine peace deal is that we ensure no western nations twist Ukraine’s arm to accept something it otherwise would have said no to. We need to be clear that Ukraine is in charge and we will back any position it takes up to and including “no dice, piss off out of my country”. Any compromise must one made through free choice, noting the military facts on the ground.

I totally agree with this, but how do you square that with many Weston nation not giving any wore weapons, most notably Germany, and the west not giving the type of weapons the Ukrainians as asking for, i.e. tanks, artillery and bigger missiles.

felix

Andy_JS said:

"Angela Rayner says it is 'unacceptable' to ask a trans woman if they have a penis but you can ask trans men if they're pregnant - as she warns that gender row will 'damage people'"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10663205/Angela-Rayner-says-unacceptable-ask-trans-woman-penis.html

She is such an idiot.

Sandpit

TimT said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Is this to be taken at face value ?

Turkey says that a deal is looking closer.

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Moscow says it will ‘drastically reduce military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-live-updates-putin-moscow-kremlin-zelenskiy-kyiv-russian-invasion

Nah, they're dressing up a retreat from those two as part of a peace process but it's probably to reinforce other parts of the invasion force that have been hollowed out.

If their frontline units have taken 25-40% losses, as seems to be the case, then even if withdrawn from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, they will need some time to regroup before being committed to the front line again. And they will be further attrited during their retreat under fire.

There is some evidence that the Russian forces have already run through their normal reserve units, as T-60 tanks, presumably resurrected from storage, are now turning up dead on the battlefield.

They sent their best into Ukraine, and they’ve been utterly humiliated.

Even the generals who are left, can see that sending tens of thousands of conscripts in half-century-old tanks in after them, to face Western weapons and training, is going to result in a bloodbath.

OllyT

FrancisUrquhart said:

Evgeny Lebedev has just confirmed earlier reports that Sir Keir actually congratulated him for his Lords appointment back in 2020

https://order-order.com/2022/03/29/lebedev-starmer-congratulated-me-on-elevation-to-lords/

The significance of that would depend on whether Starmer had been given the same warning about Lebedev by the security services that Johnson had. The main issue to me seems to be whether Johnson appointed Lebedev to the HoL despite the security services warning.

DecrepiterJohnL

biggles said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Dominic Cummings has stopped using Twitter so if Twitter is the real world, Cummings will seem to be quiet. As you say, he is emailing, substacking and Q&A-ing. His latest idea is the MAD doctrine of nuclear deterrence is badly flawed and we're all going to die.

There a lot in what you say in your first sentence. Our media has got used to being willing to highlight any old shit put on Twitter. It’s editorial faculties are, perhaps, more intact for random crap spread elsewhere.

For journalists, Twitter is an easy source. It helpfully tells everyone what is "trending". So there is your story right there: just click on trending, quote a couple of tweets and job's a good'un. It works for everything from last night's Strictly to what Boris said in the Commons. And for added culture war goodness, Twitter amplifies controversial and right wing tweets.

biggles

Richard_Tyndall said:

biggles said:

I think what really matters in any Ukraine peace deal is that we ensure no western nations twist Ukraine’s arm to accept something it otherwise would have said no to. We need to be clear that Ukraine is in charge and we will back any position it takes up to and including “no dice, piss off out of my country”. Any compromise must one made through free choice, noting the military facts on the ground.

I agree with that to a large extent. My problem with it would be if it meant Putin made clear gains and demanded that the West drop sanctions as part of any deal. We should not force Ukraine to accept any deal against their wishes, that is true. But at the same time if any deal they accept is clearly against Western interests in that it rewards Putin for aggression then the West should have the right to say that we will accept the Ukraine making whatever deal it wants but that the West will not necessarily support it by lifting sanctions.

Yes, that’s a fair point. It’s not simple.

OldKingCole

felix said:

Andy_JS said:

"Angela Rayner says it is 'unacceptable' to ask a trans woman if they have a penis but you can ask trans men if they're pregnant - as she warns that gender row will 'damage people'"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10663205/Angela-Rayner-says-unacceptable-ask-trans-woman-penis.html

She is such an idiot.

It's a report in the Mail. Is there enough salt that one can pinch?

Taz

FrancisUrquhart said:

tlg86 said:

@FrancisUrquhart

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2022/mar/29/nfl-says-all-32-teams-must-have-minority-offensive-coach-this-season

The NFL announced on Monday that all 32 teams must have a minority assistant on their offensive staffs for the 2022 season, a new requirement under the league’s Rooney Rule.

Regressive step, re-treading mandated affirmative action hiring. The requirement to interview is one thing, but telling every team you must have this type of person in this specific role isn't the way forward.

Do you not think this could be positive in the long run ? By exposing people to the coaching at a high level and gaining first hand experience.

Nigelb

"De-escalation does not mean a ceasefire," the head of Russia's delegation now says.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1508820115399364615

Make of that what you will.

TimT

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Dominic Cummings has stopped using Twitter so if Twitter is the real world, Cummings will seem to be quiet. As you say, he is emailing, substacking and Q&A-ing. His latest idea is the MAD doctrine of nuclear deterrence is badly flawed and we're all going to die.

Oh no, just when I'd gone the other way! I started off thinking it fatally flawed, then got to where I am now - that it not only works but it's the only thing which can work as long as WMD nukes exist.

I worked hard to get here too. It was key to peace of mind. So I will NOT be reading Cummings on the matter.

I think you are a better strategic thinker than Cummings based on your ending positions on this matter.

So long as there are any NW, MAD makes sense. The other option is total subservience to those who have NW and are willing to use them (or threaten to use them in a credible manner). It does not mean that the MAD outcome is 100% safe. It just means it is the best stable(-ish) equilibrium.

rottenborough

Is see Shoigu has now been allowed back out in public.

Just in time to announce the Glorious Retreat.

I guess he will end up taking the blame.

biggles

Nigelb said:

"De-escalation does not mean a ceasefire," the head of Russia's delegation now says.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1508820115399364615

Make of that what you will.

Honestly can’t trust a word they say.

felix

OldKingCole said:

felix said:

Andy_JS said:

"Angela Rayner says it is 'unacceptable' to ask a trans woman if they have a penis but you can ask trans men if they're pregnant - as she warns that gender row will 'damage people'"

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10663205/Angela-Rayner-says-unacceptable-ask-trans-woman-penis.html

She is such an idiot.

It's a report in the Mail. Is there enough salt that one can pinch?

Since it is a direct quote no salt needed.

kinabalu

biggles said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Dominic Cummings has stopped using Twitter so if Twitter is the real world, Cummings will seem to be quiet. As you say, he is emailing, substacking and Q&A-ing. His latest idea is the MAD doctrine of nuclear deterrence is badly flawed and we're all going to die.

Oh no, just when I'd gone the other way! I started off thinking it fatally flawed, then got to where I am now - that it not only works but it's the only thing which can work as long as WMD nukes exist.

I worked hard to get here too. It was key to peace of mind. So I will NOT be reading Cummings on the matter.

Your last sentence is wise advice on any subject.

Ha yes. Although tbf he's great on the (PM) life of Johnson. He's a real Boswell there.

rottenborough

Nigelb said:

"De-escalation does not mean a ceasefire," the head of Russia's delegation now says.
https://twitter.com/maxseddon/status/1508820115399364615

Make of that what you will.

Ukr forces can keep taking huge chunks out of Putin's war machine?

TimT

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Anyone follow Darth Putin on twitter?

Very funny. His latest:

"For Peace NATO will have to guarantee Russian security by not allowing Ukraine to establish bases on its territory."

I prefer Kaputin.

Not seen Kaputin, but Darth Putin can be very funny

BigRich

TimT said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Is this to be taken at face value ?

Turkey says that a deal is looking closer.

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Moscow says it will ‘drastically reduce military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-live-updates-putin-moscow-kremlin-zelenskiy-kyiv-russian-invasion

Nah, they're dressing up a retreat from those two as part of a peace process but it's probably to reinforce other parts of the invasion force that have been hollowed out.

If their frontline units have taken 25-40% losses, as seems to be the case, then even if withdrawn from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, they will need some time to regroup before being committed to the front line again. And they will be further attrited during their retreat under fire.

There is some evidence that the Russian forces have already run through their normal reserve units, as T-60 tanks, presumably resurrected from storage, are now turning up dead on the battlefield.

Not withstanding the Russian casualties' witch have been high, as have the Ukrainians. Russia can and indeed appear to be pulling troops back over the boarder in the North east, which lets them rest and maybe even resupplied a bit, for where they can be moved to other parts of the war.

The Ukrainians even when they reach the boarder, cannot properly rest or be redeployed, as they don't know if the Russians will come back over that boarder. Thus giving an advantage to Russia.

Nigelb

Nigelb said:

Thread on Ukraine's proposals.

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1508791874756263949
What’s the Ukraine proposal?

1- Guarantors will intervene if Russia attacks after three days of consultations. They may provide arms, or impose a no-fly zone over Ukraine

2- In return, Ukraine becomes non-aligned, non-nuclear state, with no foreign bases but can join EU

3 - Ukraine, Russia to discuss the status of Crimea for the next 15 years. Ukraine won’t use violence to resolve the issue

4- Putin, Zelensky will personally discuss Donbas dispute.

Russia says security guarantees won’t cover Crimea and Donbas

How is it going to be ratified?

5- Ukraine will hold a referendum on the deal. If people approve it, then the guarantors will pass it through their individual parliaments

The proposed 'guarantors':
More from @Podolyak_M on Ukraine's negotiations with Russia in Turkey. He says Ukraine would get security guarantees with "enhanced analogue of Article 5 of NATO." With guarantor states including US, UK, Turkey, France, Germany "legally actively involved in protecting Ukraine."
https://twitter.com/ChristopherJM/status/1508815783069110284

ie everyone who counts in NATO, while reducing the chance of a NATO member veto (looking at you, Hungary).

Nigelb

TimT said:

Nigelb said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Anyone follow Darth Putin on twitter?

Very funny. His latest:

"For Peace NATO will have to guarantee Russian security by not allowing Ukraine to establish bases on its territory."

I prefer Kaputin.

Not seen Kaputin, but Darth Putin can be very funny

I don't think it's an actual Twitter thing (?) - just my hopeful forecast.

kinabalu

TimT said:

kinabalu said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Gary_Burton said:

Cummings has gone awfully quiet. What's his next move?

He's not been quiet. He sent out another long email covering various governmental failings related to covid and other matters yesterday.

Dominic Cummings has stopped using Twitter so if Twitter is the real world, Cummings will seem to be quiet. As you say, he is emailing, substacking and Q&A-ing. His latest idea is the MAD doctrine of nuclear deterrence is badly flawed and we're all going to die.

Oh no, just when I'd gone the other way! I started off thinking it fatally flawed, then got to where I am now - that it not only works but it's the only thing which can work as long as WMD nukes exist.

I worked hard to get here too. It was key to peace of mind. So I will NOT be reading Cummings on the matter.

I think you are a better strategic thinker than Cummings based on your ending positions on this matter.

So long as there are any NW, MAD makes sense. The other option is total subservience to those who have NW and are willing to use them (or threaten to use them in a credible manner). It does not mean that the MAD outcome is 100% safe. It just means it is the best stable(-ish) equilibrium.

Yes, that's my view. I still don't support us (the UK) spending large sums on nuclear deterrence though. I don't see how what we get for that is in practice worth the cost.

MarqueeMark

BigRich said:

MattW said:

Gardenwalker said:

Ukraine is proposing to resolve the status of Crimea by “diplomatic and political means” over 15 years.

Which presumably means a withdrawal to boundaries of the 2014 invasion by Russia as a first ceasefire live?

What about the 2 'separatist' areas with Russia's fake referendum in 2014/5, following their vote in support of Ukrainian independence in 1994 (ish) ?

Russia probably has little interest in the areas north of the capital and to the north east of the country, beyond a bargaining position, however there is IMHO no chance that they will withdrew in the south, where both logic and there actions show they what a) the secure water supply to the Crimea, and b) the land bridge/full cost of the sea of Azov. both of which have more strategic impotence. as too the rest of the territory of the 2 Donbass republics, even though that was the 'official' reason for the war, I think there more mixed in opinions, if they got it then it would be even easier to present this as a win, but they are pretty poor areas with a population that is not particularly pre-Putin.

I am anticipating, the Russians capturing, the rest of Mariupol, and then just wafting this out, with the occasional missile or artillery barrage, in to Ukraine. possibly push forward in to more of the Donbass, but mostly wait. and repel Ukrainian attacks, at least in areas that Russia hopes to keep at the end.

We like to tell ourselves that we are crushing the Russian economy, the Russian economy is hearing, but not nearly as much as the Ukrainian. we like to tell ourselves that Russia has taken huge casualty's, and it has, but so has Ukraine, and so on.

Sadly, this looks like a win for Russia. and it did not need to be, Germany instead of planning to spend 100 billion euros extra on defence, could have armed the Ukrainians properly for 5 billion.

I don't see it as a win for Russia.

- it does not have a pliant regime in Kyiv headed by its hand-picked stooge.

- it has kept Ukraine out of NATO, but at the cost of Finland likely joining - a thousand miles of new border with NATO. Plus Sweden moving from neutral to a NATO member too. It can forget any attempt to reacquire the Baltic states.

- whilst not in NATO, Ukraine will likely eventually join the EU. If the EU has its own Article 5 equivalent to NATO, it is effectively NATO by the back door.

- so Russia now has an implacable enemy in Ukraine, supported by the West with the latest defensive technology and sanctions.

- Russia now has its former hydrocarbons clients going pell-mell to avoid ever having to buy them again (within the next 5 years, down to 0). It will have to sell to Asia at knock-down prices to get any foreign currency.

- Russia will find it very, very difficult to attract material inward investment for at least a decade. Business will see Shell, BP having to walk away from billions and think "Nah - not for us...."

- Russia's military has to go away and do a fundamental rethink. It has lost billions in kit. A $25m tank gets destroyed by a weapon costing a thousandth of that, handed over for free in their thousands. It has been shown to be unfit for purpose in so many respects.

- Crimea and Donbas are going to be looking at a neighbour where umpteen billions are being poured in to make it a better place to live than Russia will ever provide for them. Their brightest and best will drain away. Crimea and Donbas will end up as ageing shit holes. Resentment may eventually grow at what poor life choices have been imposed on them.

StuartDickson

Inflation news.

Big problems in China due to shutdown. Danish giant AP Møller-Mærsk warns of big disruption to transport and rising costs.

TimT

BigRich said:

TimT said:

MaxPB said:

Nigelb said:

Is this to be taken at face value ?

Turkey says that a deal is looking closer.

Russia-Ukraine war latest: Moscow says it will ‘drastically reduce military activity’ around Kyiv and Chernihiv
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/29/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-live-updates-putin-moscow-kremlin-zelenskiy-kyiv-russian-invasion

Nah, they're dressing up a retreat from those two as part of a peace process but it's probably to reinforce other parts of the invasion force that have been hollowed out.

If their frontline units have taken 25-40% losses, as seems to be the case, then even if withdrawn from Kyiv, Chernihiv and Sumy, they will need some time to regroup before being committed to the front line again. And they will be further attrited during their retreat under fire.

There is some evidence that the Russian forces have already run through their normal reserve units, as T-60 tanks, presumably resurrected from storage, are now turning up dead on the battlefield.

Not withstanding the Russian casualties' witch have been high, as have the Ukrainians. Russia can and indeed appear to be pulling troops back over the boarder in the North east, which lets them rest and maybe even resupplied a bit, for where they can be moved to other parts of the war.

The Ukrainians even when they reach the boarder, cannot properly rest or be redeployed, as they don't know if the Russians will come back over that boarder. Thus giving an advantage to Russia.

I think you are vastly overestimating Russia's capacity to regroup, replace and resupply its mortally damaged elite units.