To give an idea of the scale of losses, Ukraine had 440 tanks lost/damaged fighting in two years of fighting in Donbass from 2014, and 1,201 infantry fighting vehicles.
That's a heck of a lot. But Russia has lost nearly as many in five weeks fighting (and counting unacknowledged losses, probably more). It's also interesting that in that earlier conflict, Ukraine lost most to mines, rocket launchers and artillery. It *seems* the Russians are losing more to rockets.
To give an idea of the scale of losses, Ukraine had 440 tanks lost/damaged fighting in two years of fighting in Donbass from 2014, and 1,201 infantry fighting vehicles.
That's a heck of a lot. But Russia has lost nearly as many in five weeks fighting (and counting unacknowledged losses, probably more). It's also interesting that in that earlier conflict, Ukraine lost most to mines, rocket launchers and artillery. It *seems* the Russians are losing more to rockets.
The Ukranian claims for Russian losses are now at basically half the committed vehicles and aircraft, with the entire Russian military literally decimated by a month of war.
If they were to carry on taking losses at the same rate, there would barely be a Russian military by the end of the year, while the Ukranians would continue to be supplied with pretty much unlimited Western / NATO equipment.
Let’s hope that we now quickly end up with a ceasefire outside the Donbass, and we can start to send the rebuild aid. Even if the war finishes outside of that region, there is a lot of damaged infrastructure such as bridges and power stations that need to be quickly restored to allow the rest of Ukraine to return to something approaching normality.
The danger is that the fighting stops and Ukraine drops off the news, and we all forget that there’s a bombed-out country that needs rebuilding.
To give an idea of the scale of losses, Ukraine had 440 tanks lost/damaged fighting in two years of fighting in Donbass from 2014, and 1,201 infantry fighting vehicles.
That's a heck of a lot. But Russia has lost nearly as many in five weeks fighting (and counting unacknowledged losses, probably more). It's also interesting that in that earlier conflict, Ukraine lost most to mines, rocket launchers and artillery. It *seems* the Russians are losing more to rockets.
The Ukranian claims for Russian losses are now at basically half the committed vehicles and aircraft, with the entire Russian military literally decimated by a month of war.
If they were to carry on taking losses at the same rate, there would barely be a Russian military by the end of the year, while the Ukranians would continue to be supplied with pretty much unlimited Western / NATO equipment.
Let’s hope that we now quickly end up with a ceasefire outside the Donbass, and we can start to send the rebuild aid. Even if the war finishes outside of that region, there is a lot of damaged infrastructure such as bridges and power stations that need to be quickly restored to allow the rest of Ukraine to return to something approaching normality.
The danger is that the fighting stops and Ukraine drops off the news, and we all forget that there’s a bombed-out country that needs rebuilding.
We, the public, need to put pressure on our governments *not* to weaken sanctions until Putin is gone.
Putin wants Ukraine. If he fails (as seems possible), he will try again in a few years. Any 'peace' that leaves him able to do so, having rebuilt his military and having learnt from the mistakes, would be a false peace.
we cannot trust Putin. Too many politicians will be wanting to get back to the 'old' normal. That cannot happen until Putin is gone.
A friendly reminder that Covid still exists and there will be new guidelines (for England at least) as free tests end this week, and also that GB News still exists.
Best opportunity they’ll ever have, to bring in the serious healthcare reforms required for a 21st century Western country.
Start with corporation tax offsets for any companies providing private healthcare or insurance to all their staff, set up a teaching hospital in Mumbai or Manila handing out British medical qualifications and visas, recognise medical qualifications from more English-speaking countries etc.
Local reforms can include fixing the GP system, which by all accounts is totally broken. Encourage virtual appointments for those who want them, freeing up other doctors for in-person consultations.
Our resident doctor here, has noted that specialist training pretty much stopped for two years thanks to the pandemic, so look at bringing in temporary expatriate specialists to free up the time for teaching, while dramatically increasing university training places available (against the wishes of the doctors’ unions) to guard against the coming demographic changes and the next shock to the system.
To give an idea of the scale of losses, Ukraine had 440 tanks lost/damaged fighting in two years of fighting in Donbass from 2014, and 1,201 infantry fighting vehicles.
That's a heck of a lot. But Russia has lost nearly as many in five weeks fighting (and counting unacknowledged losses, probably more). It's also interesting that in that earlier conflict, Ukraine lost most to mines, rocket launchers and artillery. It *seems* the Russians are losing more to rockets.
The Ukranian claims for Russian losses are now at basically half the committed vehicles and aircraft, with the entire Russian military literally decimated by a month of war.
If they were to carry on taking losses at the same rate, there would barely be a Russian military by the end of the year, while the Ukranians would continue to be supplied with pretty much unlimited Western / NATO equipment.
Let’s hope that we now quickly end up with a ceasefire outside the Donbass, and we can start to send the rebuild aid. Even if the war finishes outside of that region, there is a lot of damaged infrastructure such as bridges and power stations that need to be quickly restored to allow the rest of Ukraine to return to something approaching normality.
The danger is that the fighting stops and Ukraine drops off the news, and we all forget that there’s a bombed-out country that needs rebuilding.
We, the public, need to put pressure on our governments *not* to weaken sanctions until Putin is gone.
Putin wants Ukraine. If he fails (as seems possible), he will try again in a few years. Any 'peace' that leaves him able to do so, having rebuilt his military and having learnt from the mistakes, would be a false peace.
we cannot trust Putin. Too many politicians will be wanting to get back to the 'old' normal. That cannot happen until Putin is gone.
Oh indeed. Don’t even think about dropping any of the sanctions for several years, until Putin is long gone and his successor has made it clear he’s not a threat - however much that hurts in the meantime.
Russia is more than self-sufficient in food and fuel, don’t let them tell us that sanctions will leave people starving. Let them buy farm equipment with hard currency if that’s required. Meanwhile, offer long-term visas to skilled Russians, in the same way as the West did with skilled Germans in 1945.
To give an idea of the scale of losses, Ukraine had 440 tanks lost/damaged fighting in two years of fighting in Donbass from 2014, and 1,201 infantry fighting vehicles.
That's a heck of a lot. But Russia has lost nearly as many in five weeks fighting (and counting unacknowledged losses, probably more). It's also interesting that in that earlier conflict, Ukraine lost most to mines, rocket launchers and artillery. It *seems* the Russians are losing more to rockets.
The Ukranian claims for Russian losses are now at basically half the committed vehicles and aircraft, with the entire Russian military literally decimated by a month of war.
If they were to carry on taking losses at the same rate, there would barely be a Russian military by the end of the year, while the Ukranians would continue to be supplied with pretty much unlimited Western / NATO equipment.
Let’s hope that we now quickly end up with a ceasefire outside the Donbass, and we can start to send the rebuild aid. Even if the war finishes outside of that region, there is a lot of damaged infrastructure such as bridges and power stations that need to be quickly restored to allow the rest of Ukraine to return to something approaching normality.
The danger is that the fighting stops and Ukraine drops off the news, and we all forget that there’s a bombed-out country that needs rebuilding.
The figures from a Ukranian press suggested $500 billion of cconomic damage to Ukraine in the last month.
Best opportunity they’ll ever have, to bring in the serious healthcare reforms required for a 21st century Western country.
Start with corporation tax offsets for any companies providing private healthcare or insurance to all their staff, set up a teaching hospital in Mumbai or Manila handing out British medical qualifications and visas, recognise medical qualifications from more English-speaking countries etc.
Local reforms can include fixing the GP system, which by all accounts is totally broken. Encourage virtual appointments for those who want them, freeing up other doctors for in-person consultations.
Our resident doctor here, has noted that specialist training pretty much stopped for two years thanks to the pandemic, so look at bringing in temporary expatriate specialists to free up the time for teaching, while dramatically increasing university training places available (against the wishes of the doctors’ unions) to guard against the coming demographic changes and the next shock to the system.
Given the number of companies offering medical insurance to employees, one imagines there are already tax advantages. And medical qualifications from abroad are already recognised, though not from everywhere. Nonetheless, the NHS is stuffed full of medics from all points East, and South and West.
There are major problems with specialist training having stopped, with burnt-out staff taking early retirement, and the pre-pandemic problem of doctors working part-time only. The under-provisioning of medical school places is a perennial scandal, of course. And with the number of drop-outs of junior doctors, one wonders if current methods of selection for medical school might be badly flawed, and also the newish system for specialist training.
To give an idea of the scale of losses, Ukraine had 440 tanks lost/damaged fighting in two years of fighting in Donbass from 2014, and 1,201 infantry fighting vehicles.
That's a heck of a lot. But Russia has lost nearly as many in five weeks fighting (and counting unacknowledged losses, probably more). It's also interesting that in that earlier conflict, Ukraine lost most to mines, rocket launchers and artillery. It *seems* the Russians are losing more to rockets.
The Ukranian claims for Russian losses are now at basically half the committed vehicles and aircraft, with the entire Russian military literally decimated by a month of war.
If they were to carry on taking losses at the same rate, there would barely be a Russian military by the end of the year, while the Ukranians would continue to be supplied with pretty much unlimited Western / NATO equipment.
Let’s hope that we now quickly end up with a ceasefire outside the Donbass, and we can start to send the rebuild aid. Even if the war finishes outside of that region, there is a lot of damaged infrastructure such as bridges and power stations that need to be quickly restored to allow the rest of Ukraine to return to something approaching normality.
The danger is that the fighting stops and Ukraine drops off the news, and we all forget that there’s a bombed-out country that needs rebuilding.
I doubt the Uk government will given our support over many years. No one cares about the media
It's really bad out there. I said the other day that it might well be an irrecoverable blow to the NHS, but even at best it will dominate the last 10 years of my career.
There are no quick and easy solutions to rebuild human and physical capacity, not least because every country in the world is struggling with the same issues.
Re NHS, it was reported in the last couple of days that a new AI tool is to be rolled out across 100 trusts, that predicts A&E surges up to three weeks in advance, so that hospitals can prepare. https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/29/nhs_hospitals_ai/
The corollary is that if hospitals know when A&E will be overloaded, they also can know when there will be quiet spells during which they can clear the backlog of elective procedures.
Re NHS, it was reported in the last couple of days that a new AI tool is to be rolled out across 100 trusts, that predicts A&E surges up to three weeks in advance, so that hospitals can prepare. https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/29/nhs_hospitals_ai/
The corollary is that if hospitals know when A&E will be overloaded, they also can know when there will be quiet spells during which they can clear the backlog of elective procedures.
A new Artificial Insemination tool? One way to combat population decline.
Our local GP is still refusing in person appointments or phone calls. Everything needs to be online.
You bet we are unhappy with them. If I was a regular Joe on the street I’d probably blame the NHS even though GPs are semi detached
They are gatekeepers so an integral part even if separated
But it is perhaps ironic, given both main parties' fondness for market-based panaceas, that it is the semi-private GP sector that causes so much grumbling.
Best opportunity they’ll ever have, to bring in the serious healthcare reforms required for a 21st century Western country.
Start with corporation tax offsets for any companies providing private healthcare or insurance to all their staff, set up a teaching hospital in Mumbai or Manila handing out British medical qualifications and visas, recognise medical qualifications from more English-speaking countries etc.
Local reforms can include fixing the GP system, which by all accounts is totally broken. Encourage virtual appointments for those who want them, freeing up other doctors for in-person consultations.
Our resident doctor here, has noted that specialist training pretty much stopped for two years thanks to the pandemic, so look at bringing in temporary expatriate specialists to free up the time for teaching, while dramatically increasing university training places available (against the wishes of the doctors’ unions) to guard against the coming demographic changes and the next shock to the system.
Given the number of companies offering medical insurance to employees, one imagines there are already tax advantages. And medical qualifications from abroad are already recognised, though not from everywhere. Nonetheless, the NHS is stuffed full of medics from all points East, and South and West.
There are major problems with specialist training having stopped, with burnt-out staff taking early retirement, and the pre-pandemic problem of doctors working part-time only. The under-provisioning of medical school places is a perennial scandal, of course. And with the number of drop-outs of junior doctors, one wonders if current methods of selection for medical school might be badly flawed, and also the newish system for specialist training.
IIRC there’s no tax advantage to companies providing health insurance, rather there is a BIK tax on the employee for the value of the policy, but companies still do it to cut down on sickness and for competitive advantage.
Also IIRC, the issue with qualifications was an issue when the UK was in the EU, required to accept all EU qualifications without question, and with a number of issues resulting from language difficulties. It may well be, that the only way to fix the shortage will be with high-paid short-term temporary contracts and visas, for specialists from all over the world to work in both public and private sectors.
Simply throwing more money at an unreformed NHS though, that’s a great example of a sunk cost fallacy. No other Western country has an NHS, and for good reason.
Re NHS, it was reported in the last couple of days that a new AI tool is to be rolled out across 100 trusts, that predicts A&E surges up to three weeks in advance, so that hospitals can prepare. https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/29/nhs_hospitals_ai/
The corollary is that if hospitals know when A&E will be overloaded, they also can know when there will be quiet spells during which they can clear the backlog of elective procedures.
It'll be good to see how much Faculty are getting for this, and metrics for how well it performs. My prediction is that my prediction that it won't work well will be better than their prediction about demand.
Re NHS, it was reported in the last couple of days that a new AI tool is to be rolled out across 100 trusts, that predicts A&E surges up to three weeks in advance, so that hospitals can prepare. https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/29/nhs_hospitals_ai/
The corollary is that if hospitals know when A&E will be overloaded, they also can know when there will be quiet spells during which they can clear the backlog of elective procedures.
It'll be good to see how much Faculty are getting for this, and metrics for how well it performs. My prediction is that my prediction that it won't work well will be better than their prediction about demand.
I think you are right. The good old weasel words "up to 3 weeks" that mean usually it is is only any good for "tomorrow" (or possibly "yesterday").
The problem is that false negatives are a disaster, so you have to maintain a level of readiness anyway.
To give an idea of the scale of losses, Ukraine had 440 tanks lost/damaged fighting in two years of fighting in Donbass from 2014, and 1,201 infantry fighting vehicles.
That's a heck of a lot. But Russia has lost nearly as many in five weeks fighting (and counting unacknowledged losses, probably more). It's also interesting that in that earlier conflict, Ukraine lost most to mines, rocket launchers and artillery. It *seems* the Russians are losing more to rockets.
The Ukranian claims for Russian losses are now at basically half the committed vehicles and aircraft, with the entire Russian military literally decimated by a month of war.
If they were to carry on taking losses at the same rate, there would barely be a Russian military by the end of the year, while the Ukranians would continue to be supplied with pretty much unlimited Western / NATO equipment.
Let’s hope that we now quickly end up with a ceasefire outside the Donbass, and we can start to send the rebuild aid. Even if the war finishes outside of that region, there is a lot of damaged infrastructure such as bridges and power stations that need to be quickly restored to allow the rest of Ukraine to return to something approaching normality.
The danger is that the fighting stops and Ukraine drops off the news, and we all forget that there’s a bombed-out country that needs rebuilding.
The figures from a Ukranian press suggested $500 billion of cconomic damage to Ukraine in the last month.
That’s three years of annual Ukranian GDP at $160bn, so likely to be an over-estimate, but not orders of magnitude out. There’s probably $100bn of physical damage, which will quickly add up if physical infrastructure such as bridges and railways remain closed, and hundreds of thousands remain homeless.
Re NHS, it was reported in the last couple of days that a new AI tool is to be rolled out across 100 trusts, that predicts A&E surges up to three weeks in advance, so that hospitals can prepare. https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/29/nhs_hospitals_ai/
The corollary is that if hospitals know when A&E will be overloaded, they also can know when there will be quiet spells during which they can clear the backlog of elective procedures.
It'll be good to see how much Faculty are getting for this, and metrics for how well it performs. My prediction is that my prediction that it won't work well will be better than their prediction about demand.
I think you are right. The good old weasel words "up to 3 weeks" that mean usually it is is only any good for "tomorrow" (or possibly "yesterday").
The problem is that false negatives are a disaster, so you have to maintain a level of readiness anyway.
Yep. In addition, it'd be interesting to see how demand occurs normally anyway. AIUI Friday and Saturday evenings are frequently busier at A&E than (say) Wednesday mornings; I would not be surprised if winters were busier than summer (flu and slips on ice compared to outdoors injuries). Also, how well these figures track from week to week and year to year (Covid years excluded, obviously).
Re NHS, it was reported in the last couple of days that a new AI tool is to be rolled out across 100 trusts, that predicts A&E surges up to three weeks in advance, so that hospitals can prepare. https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/29/nhs_hospitals_ai/
The corollary is that if hospitals know when A&E will be overloaded, they also can know when there will be quiet spells during which they can clear the backlog of elective procedures.
I remember seeing an advert that said A&E would be empty
All we had to do was vote for the foreigners to go home...
To give an idea of the scale of losses, Ukraine had 440 tanks lost/damaged fighting in two years of fighting in Donbass from 2014, and 1,201 infantry fighting vehicles.
That's a heck of a lot. But Russia has lost nearly as many in five weeks fighting (and counting unacknowledged losses, probably more). It's also interesting that in that earlier conflict, Ukraine lost most to mines, rocket launchers and artillery. It *seems* the Russians are losing more to rockets.
The Ukranian claims for Russian losses are now at basically half the committed vehicles and aircraft, with the entire Russian military literally decimated by a month of war.
If they were to carry on taking losses at the same rate, there would barely be a Russian military by the end of the year, while the Ukranians would continue to be supplied with pretty much unlimited Western / NATO equipment.
Let’s hope that we now quickly end up with a ceasefire outside the Donbass, and we can start to send the rebuild aid. Even if the war finishes outside of that region, there is a lot of damaged infrastructure such as bridges and power stations that need to be quickly restored to allow the rest of Ukraine to return to something approaching normality.
The danger is that the fighting stops and Ukraine drops off the news, and we all forget that there’s a bombed-out country that needs rebuilding.
The figures from a Ukranian press suggested $500 billion of cconomic damage to Ukraine in the last month.
That’s three years of annual Ukranian GDP at $160bn, so likely to be an over-estimate, but not orders of magnitude out. There’s probably $100bn of physical damage, which will quickly add up if physical infrastructure such as bridges and railways remain closed, and hundreds of thousands remain homeless.
How do you arrive at your estimate for physical damage ?
Downing Street is exploring yet another (4th) delay to post-Brexit border checks on goods entering Britain from the EU to prevent what industry has warned would be a supply chain disaster
Even now it’s mind-boggling; the UK has put up barriers to its own exports but cannot risk imposing this barriers on imports. Brexit was and always will be plain old stupid. https://twitter.com/JMPSimor/status/1508966495325458433
It's really bad out there. I said the other day that it might well be an irrecoverable blow to the NHS, but even at best it will dominate the last 10 years of my career.
There are no quick and easy solutions to rebuild human and physical capacity, not least because every country in the world is struggling with the same issues.
I note no one has even touched on the problems with social care.
Best opportunity they’ll ever have, to bring in the serious healthcare reforms required for a 21st century Western country.
Start with corporation tax offsets for any companies providing private healthcare or insurance to all their staff, set up a teaching hospital in Mumbai or Manila handing out British medical qualifications and visas, recognise medical qualifications from more English-speaking countries etc.
Local reforms can include fixing the GP system, which by all accounts is totally broken. Encourage virtual appointments for those who want them, freeing up other doctors for in-person consultations.
Our resident doctor here, has noted that specialist training pretty much stopped for two years thanks to the pandemic, so look at bringing in temporary expatriate specialists to free up the time for teaching, while dramatically increasing university training places available (against the wishes of the doctors’ unions) to guard against the coming demographic changes and the next shock to the system.
I don't agree with tax offsets on business health care for a number of reasons but I think as a nation we should debate about paying for ever more expensive non palliative treatments in a futile attempt to help the old to live forever. I read somewhere that 90% of healthcare costs are incurred in the last few months of life and there must be questions about how cost-effective that is.
Downing Street is exploring yet another (4th) delay to post-Brexit border checks on goods entering Britain from the EU to prevent what industry has warned would be a supply chain disaster
Even now it’s mind-boggling; the UK has put up barriers to its own exports but cannot risk imposing this barriers on imports. Brexit was and always will be plain old stupid. https://twitter.com/JMPSimor/status/1508966495325458433
Perhaps the most depressing thing about Brexit is the complete inability of the Brexiteers to plan and implement it.
If the French can implement it, why can't we? It's not as if we weren't anticipating it, and have known for 3 years it would be a hard border.
Best opportunity they’ll ever have, to bring in the serious healthcare reforms required for a 21st century Western country.
Start with corporation tax offsets for any companies providing private healthcare or insurance to all their staff, set up a teaching hospital in Mumbai or Manila handing out British medical qualifications and visas, recognise medical qualifications from more English-speaking countries etc.
Local reforms can include fixing the GP system, which by all accounts is totally broken. Encourage virtual appointments for those who want them, freeing up other doctors for in-person consultations.
Our resident doctor here, has noted that specialist training pretty much stopped for two years thanks to the pandemic, so look at bringing in temporary expatriate specialists to free up the time for teaching, while dramatically increasing university training places available (against the wishes of the doctors’ unions) to guard against the coming demographic changes and the next shock to the system.
I don't agree with tax offsets on business health care for a number of reasons but I think as a nation we should debate about paying for ever more expensive non palliative treatments in a futile attempt to help the old to live forever. I read somewhere that 90% of healthcare costs are incurred in the last few months of life and there must be questions about how cost-effective that is.
Re NHS, it was reported in the last couple of days that a new AI tool is to be rolled out across 100 trusts, that predicts A&E surges up to three weeks in advance, so that hospitals can prepare. https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/29/nhs_hospitals_ai/
The corollary is that if hospitals know when A&E will be overloaded, they also can know when there will be quiet spells during which they can clear the backlog of elective procedures.
It'll be good to see how much Faculty are getting for this, and metrics for how well it performs. My prediction is that my prediction that it won't work well will be better than their prediction about demand.
I think you are right. The good old weasel words "up to 3 weeks" that mean usually it is is only any good for "tomorrow" (or possibly "yesterday").
The problem is that false negatives are a disaster, so you have to maintain a level of readiness anyway.
Yep. In addition, it'd be interesting to see how demand occurs normally anyway. AIUI Friday and Saturday evenings are frequently busier at A&E than (say) Wednesday mornings; I would not be surprised if winters were busier than summer (flu and slips on ice compared to outdoors injuries). Also, how well these figures track from week to week and year to year (Covid years excluded, obviously).
This is it - even if it is a significantly better model than was previously used, you are still operating in units of "people" and weekly rosters. Maybe the ability to adjust scale up/down by a week here and there will make a significant difference and we are being unfair.
To party despite fines for partying, to tell the public they will never know whether advisers, civil servants or the PM’s wife broke the law and to joke about it suggest supreme confidence that a foreign war - and perhaps time - has changed everything. https://twitter.com/anushkaasthana/status/1508909684891303940
I really hope the German change of mind is a permanent one. Even if there is a ceasefire, none if this is over while Putin remains in power.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1509052353579831297 After Russia invaded Ukraine, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner "with a polite smile" told Ambassador Melnyk that Ukraine had only a few hours left, soi t was "senseless" to supply weapons to Kyiv & disconnect Russia from SWIFT, Melnyk told FAZ
What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?
We have to bolster our own resources for the mutual defence of our many other allies, and hold the fort until the US returns to its senses.
On the political/diplomatic front we see a willingness by British politicians to strengthen existing multilateral defence relationships, with an announcement yesterday about a partnership with Norway/Sweden/Finland, and the trilateral alliance with Poland/Ukraine that was signed in February.
However, we're not providing any more financial resources so that the armed forces can substantiate these promises.
Downing Street is exploring yet another (4th) delay to post-Brexit border checks on goods entering Britain from the EU to prevent what industry has warned would be a supply chain disaster
Even now it’s mind-boggling; the UK has put up barriers to its own exports but cannot risk imposing this barriers on imports. Brexit was and always will be plain old stupid. https://twitter.com/JMPSimor/status/1508966495325458433
Perhaps the most depressing thing about Brexit is the complete inability of the Brexiteers to plan and implement it.
If the French can implement it, why can't we? It's not as if we weren't anticipating it, and have known for 3 years it would be a hard border.
A couple of factors strike me as relevant, as a non-expert.
One is that the hard border into the UK has to deal with more stuff- all of our imports from Fr, Ge, Sp and all the rest. France just to deal with one country of imports. The scale of the UK"s job is off-puttingly hard.
The other is that, even now, the Brexit gang haven't worked out what they want. There's a small but vocal slice who think that we should just open our borders to anything from anywhere. JRM for example. To come down on one side or the other is to break the coalition... far easier to stay in perpetual limbo.
To give an idea of the scale of losses, Ukraine had 440 tanks lost/damaged fighting in two years of fighting in Donbass from 2014, and 1,201 infantry fighting vehicles.
That's a heck of a lot. But Russia has lost nearly as many in five weeks fighting (and counting unacknowledged losses, probably more). It's also interesting that in that earlier conflict, Ukraine lost most to mines, rocket launchers and artillery. It *seems* the Russians are losing more to rockets.
The Ukranian claims for Russian losses are now at basically half the committed vehicles and aircraft, with the entire Russian military literally decimated by a month of war.
If they were to carry on taking losses at the same rate, there would barely be a Russian military by the end of the year, while the Ukranians would continue to be supplied with pretty much unlimited Western / NATO equipment.
Let’s hope that we now quickly end up with a ceasefire outside the Donbass, and we can start to send the rebuild aid. Even if the war finishes outside of that region, there is a lot of damaged infrastructure such as bridges and power stations that need to be quickly restored to allow the rest of Ukraine to return to something approaching normality.
The danger is that the fighting stops and Ukraine drops off the news, and we all forget that there’s a bombed-out country that needs rebuilding.
We, the public, need to put pressure on our governments *not* to weaken sanctions until Putin is gone.
Putin wants Ukraine. If he fails (as seems possible), he will try again in a few years. Any 'peace' that leaves him able to do so, having rebuilt his military and having learnt from the mistakes, would be a false peace.
we cannot trust Putin. Too many politicians will be wanting to get back to the 'old' normal. That cannot happen until Putin is gone.
I'd agree with that. Pursuing regime change is a step too far but weakening Putin so he is in no position to threaten his neighbours and wage war should be the goal.
I'm slightly surprised by the attitude of some people who seem to want the war to finish ASAP (now the Ukrainians are fighting back). I understand that conflicts may be harder to settle the longer they continue but this one has only being going on for a month. And the Ukrainians have been living under the threat of full scale invasion with a frozen conflict in the east for 8 years.
I'll be honest. I think some of it is coming from people who thought the Russians would win easily (Niall Feguson) and now have egg on their faces.
However, we're not providing any more financial resources so that the armed forces can substantiate these promises.
Since the tories broke their inflation + 0.5% defence spending promise the UK is actually providing less financial resources to the armed forces. It's a real terms cuts every year until 2025 now.
The other is that, even now, the Brexit gang haven't worked out what they want.
They want unicorns.
They always wanted unicorns.
They got us to vote for unicorns.
They are just trying to delay the moment when they have to acknowledge unicorns don't exist...
It's not unicorns, it's snowflakes, with every Brexiteer having his or her own private, unique vision of what a post-Brexit Britain should look like, and usually at the level of the golf club bore, uninformed by any knowledge of how trade, or even the European Union, actually works.
Our local GP is still refusing in person appointments or phone calls. Everything needs to be online.
You bet we are unhappy with them. If I was a regular Joe on the street I’d probably blame the NHS even though GPs are semi detached
Change your GP? I've not heard of anything like that in my area, and I had two visits for minor non-covid things at a few days' notice. The only novelty is a default assumption that a phone consultation is usually the best first step. Maybe we're exceptionally lucky - what are others finding?
The other is that, even now, the Brexit gang haven't worked out what they want.
They want unicorns.
They always wanted unicorns.
They got us to vote for unicorns.
They are just trying to delay the moment when they have to acknowledge unicorns don't exist...
It's not unicorns, it's snowflakes, with every Brexiteer having his or her own private, unique vision of what a post-Brexit Britain should look like, and usually at the level of the golf club bore, uninformed by any knowledge of how trade, or even the European Union, actually works.
Re NHS, it was reported in the last couple of days that a new AI tool is to be rolled out across 100 trusts, that predicts A&E surges up to three weeks in advance, so that hospitals can prepare. https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/29/nhs_hospitals_ai/
The corollary is that if hospitals know when A&E will be overloaded, they also can know when there will be quiet spells during which they can clear the backlog of elective procedures.
It'll be good to see how much Faculty are getting for this, and metrics for how well it performs. My prediction is that my prediction that it won't work well will be better than their prediction about demand.
I think you are right. The good old weasel words "up to 3 weeks" that mean usually it is is only any good for "tomorrow" (or possibly "yesterday").
The problem is that false negatives are a disaster, so you have to maintain a level of readiness anyway.
Yep. In addition, it'd be interesting to see how demand occurs normally anyway. AIUI Friday and Saturday evenings are frequently busier at A&E than (say) Wednesday mornings; I would not be surprised if winters were busier than summer (flu and slips on ice compared to outdoors injuries). Also, how well these figures track from week to week and year to year (Covid years excluded, obviously).
This is it - even if it is a significantly better model than was previously used, you are still operating in units of "people" and weekly rosters. Maybe the ability to adjust scale up/down by a week here and there will make a significant difference and we are being unfair.
I really struggle to see how this helps much outside pandemic waves. Certainly demand on Emergency services varies, and information predicting that is interesting. It isn't possible to just flip a paediatric ward into being geriatrics or to have an extra outpatients because the ED is quiet.
In order to do any of these things you need spare capacity, and we simply don't. Reserve capacity in practice only comes by slowing or stopping elective work, that is by cancelling operations because there are no beds. That keeps the ward working, but what are the surgeon and theatre staff to do? Our NHS policy of stopping elective care at peak demand is not efficient, it is inefficient. If it happened a couple of days a year it might be appropriate, but when it is most weeks of the winter it isn't.
A friendly reminder that Covid still exists and there will be new guidelines (for England at least) as free tests end this week, and also that GB News still exists.
Indeed. As I'm still testing positive I need to stock up on LFTs, but as I'm instructed to self-isolate I can't visit a pharmacy, and ordering online hasn't worked for the last few days. I should be able to get a friend to drop some off, but it must be getting problematic for some.
What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?
We have to bolster our own resources for the mutual defence of our many other allies, and hold the fort until the US returns to its senses.
On the political/diplomatic front we see a willingness by British politicians to strengthen existing multilateral defence relationships, with an announcement yesterday about a partnership with Norway/Sweden/Finland, and the trilateral alliance with Poland/Ukraine that was signed in February.
However, we're not providing any more financial resources so that the armed forces can substantiate these promises.
It's tricky though. Who are we defending against? The traditional threat is Russia but their efforts in Ukraine have shown them to be the paper tiger some, like me, always believed them to be. They are not a conventional threat to us. They may be capable of being a nuisiance to some of those we have allied with and we need to be able to deploy a meaningful force to support them. They are also an "unconventional" threat with the likes of cyber and terrorist attacks like Salisbury. This requires different responses.
The alternative threat is China. Again, because of geography, this is not a direct threat but a threat to those we are allied to such as Australia, and arguably Taiwan. We have a strategic interest in Taiwan at the moment because it provides 50% of our chips but that strategic liability will disappear later this year as new production facilities come online. So do we need to back up our carriers with more blue sea capability? Maybe but its not a compelling case.
Meantime we have serious economic crises at home. We are struggling to fund the NHS, we are being extremely harsh to those on benefits by increases significantly below inflation, we cannot restore the triple lock for pensioners, we are being extremely unkind to those with student debt and our infrastructure spending is well below what we need.
A friendly reminder that Covid still exists and there will be new guidelines (for England at least) as free tests end this week, and also that GB News still exists.
Indeed. As I'm still testing positive I need to stock up on LFTs, but as I'm instructed to self-isolate I can't visit a pharmacy, and ordering online hasn't worked for the last few days. I should be able to get a friend to drop some off, but it must be getting problematic for some.
Best opportunity they’ll ever have, to bring in the serious healthcare reforms required for a 21st century Western country.
Start with corporation tax offsets for any companies providing private healthcare or insurance to all their staff, set up a teaching hospital in Mumbai or Manila handing out British medical qualifications and visas, recognise medical qualifications from more English-speaking countries etc.
Local reforms can include fixing the GP system, which by all accounts is totally broken. Encourage virtual appointments for those who want them, freeing up other doctors for in-person consultations.
Our resident doctor here, has noted that specialist training pretty much stopped for two years thanks to the pandemic, so look at bringing in temporary expatriate specialists to free up the time for teaching, while dramatically increasing university training places available (against the wishes of the doctors’ unions) to guard against the coming demographic changes and the next shock to the system.
Given the number of companies offering medical insurance to employees, one imagines there are already tax advantages. And medical qualifications from abroad are already recognised, though not from everywhere. Nonetheless, the NHS is stuffed full of medics from all points East, and South and West.
There are major problems with specialist training having stopped, with burnt-out staff taking early retirement, and the pre-pandemic problem of doctors working part-time only. The under-provisioning of medical school places is a perennial scandal, of course. And with the number of drop-outs of junior doctors, one wonders if current methods of selection for medical school might be badly flawed, and also the newish system for specialist training.
IIRC there’s no tax advantage to companies providing health insurance, rather there is a BIK tax on the employee for the value of the policy, but companies still do it to cut down on sickness and for competitive advantage.
Also IIRC, the issue with qualifications was an issue when the UK was in the EU, required to accept all EU qualifications without question, and with a number of issues resulting from language difficulties. It may well be, that the only way to fix the shortage will be with high-paid short-term temporary contracts and visas, for specialists from all over the world to work in both public and private sectors.
Simply throwing more money at an unreformed NHS though, that’s a great example of a sunk cost fallacy. No other Western country has an NHS, and for good reason.
There were some issues with EU qualified doctors, e.g. see https://bmcmededuc.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12909-017-0903-6 The reasons for that were complicated. The UK was able to but hadn’t imposed language tests at first, but these came in later. (Another one of those cases were some commentators blamed EU rules, whereas actually it had been a UK decision.)
Shortfalls in healthcare staff in the Western world have ALWAYS been filled by bringing in healthcare professionals from the developing world. The problem now is that everywhere is facing the same post-COVID problems. We can increase university places, but it takes a long time to train a doctor, let alone a senior one, so important to think about, but not a quick fix.
No other Western country has an NHS, but most of them also spend more. The NHS is very efficient by international standards. Increase spending to comparable levels with France and Germany and you’ll solve plenty of the NHS’s problems.
The US is particularly broken, spending a high proportion of its GDP on healthcare, yet without providing coverage for much of the population and with poor outcomes. The lesson is clear: don’t do what the US does on healthcare.
+/- vs. 22-25 March 2022 Fieldwork: 25-29 March 2022 Sample size: 2,004"
There's no way it'll be that close, surely?
It's an outlier contrasting with more recent polls (but consistent with earlier polls from that institute). The polling consensus is otherwise Macron 56-57% vs Le Pen. Still down on last time, but comfortable enough. There's actually not been very much change for weeks.
To give an idea of the scale of losses, Ukraine had 440 tanks lost/damaged fighting in two years of fighting in Donbass from 2014, and 1,201 infantry fighting vehicles.
That's a heck of a lot. But Russia has lost nearly as many in five weeks fighting (and counting unacknowledged losses, probably more). It's also interesting that in that earlier conflict, Ukraine lost most to mines, rocket launchers and artillery. It *seems* the Russians are losing more to rockets.
The Ukranian claims for Russian losses are now at basically half the committed vehicles and aircraft, with the entire Russian military literally decimated by a month of war.
If they were to carry on taking losses at the same rate, there would barely be a Russian military by the end of the year, while the Ukranians would continue to be supplied with pretty much unlimited Western / NATO equipment.
Let’s hope that we now quickly end up with a ceasefire outside the Donbass, and we can start to send the rebuild aid. Even if the war finishes outside of that region, there is a lot of damaged infrastructure such as bridges and power stations that need to be quickly restored to allow the rest of Ukraine to return to something approaching normality.
The danger is that the fighting stops and Ukraine drops off the news, and we all forget that there’s a bombed-out country that needs rebuilding.
We, the public, need to put pressure on our governments *not* to weaken sanctions until Putin is gone.
Putin wants Ukraine. If he fails (as seems possible), he will try again in a few years. Any 'peace' that leaves him able to do so, having rebuilt his military and having learnt from the mistakes, would be a false peace.
we cannot trust Putin. Too many politicians will be wanting to get back to the 'old' normal. That cannot happen until Putin is gone.
I'd agree with that. Pursuing regime change is a step too far but weakening Putin so he is in no position to threaten his neighbours and wage war should be the goal.
I'm slightly surprised by the attitude of some people who seem to want the war to finish ASAP (now the Ukrainians are fighting back). I understand that conflicts may be harder to settle the longer they continue but this one has only being going on for a month. And the Ukrainians have been living under the threat of full scale invasion with a frozen conflict in the east for 8 years.
I'll be honest. I think some of it is coming from people who thought the Russians would win easily (Niall Feguson) and now have egg on their faces.
There are lots of short-term reasons for wanting a rapid peace with Russia: 1. Ends the shelling of civilians in Ukraine. 2. Ends the risk of escalation into a conflict involving NATO and/or WMD. 3. Reduces the wider economic damage. 4. Process of refugees returning to Ukraine could begin.
However, I think the stated policy of HMG, that Putin must fail and to be seen to fail, is the one I want our government to pursue.
Downing Street is exploring yet another (4th) delay to post-Brexit border checks on goods entering Britain from the EU to prevent what industry has warned would be a supply chain disaster
Even now it’s mind-boggling; the UK has put up barriers to its own exports but cannot risk imposing this barriers on imports. Brexit was and always will be plain old stupid. https://twitter.com/JMPSimor/status/1508966495325458433
Perhaps the most depressing thing about Brexit is the complete inability of the Brexiteers to plan and implement it.
If the French can implement it, why can't we? It's not as if we weren't anticipating it, and have known for 3 years it would be a hard border.
This is the tragedy of the thing. We're delaying yet again because nearly 6 years after the referendum we're still not able to implement the checks we demanded we do.
If we were serious that more red tape and paperwork and delays and cost was was British business needed to be globally competitive then why haven't we built the IT HR and physical systems to actually do the thing?
The Germany energy ministry has just urged every household and business in the country to use as little gas as possible ahead of a Kremlin deadline for EU firms to pay their bills in rubles by tomorrow. /1
There is no sign that Germany will comply with Putin's ultimatum, even though Russia has explicitly said it will turn off the taps unless Gazprom and other state-owned energy companies receive payment in rubles. /2
A friendly reminder that Covid still exists and there will be new guidelines (for England at least) as free tests end this week, and also that GB News still exists.
Indeed. As I'm still testing positive I need to stock up on LFTs, but as I'm instructed to self-isolate I can't visit a pharmacy, and ordering online hasn't worked for the last few days. I should be able to get a friend to drop some off, but it must be getting problematic for some.
You are allowed to leave to get essential medical care and get tested, which reasonably includes picking up LFTs at the pharmacy. It took me 9 days to test clear.
Best opportunity they’ll ever have, to bring in the serious healthcare reforms required for a 21st century Western country.
Start with corporation tax offsets for any companies providing private healthcare or insurance to all their staff, set up a teaching hospital in Mumbai or Manila handing out British medical qualifications and visas, recognise medical qualifications from more English-speaking countries etc.
Local reforms can include fixing the GP system, which by all accounts is totally broken. Encourage virtual appointments for those who want them, freeing up other doctors for in-person consultations.
Our resident doctor here, has noted that specialist training pretty much stopped for two years thanks to the pandemic, so look at bringing in temporary expatriate specialists to free up the time for teaching, while dramatically increasing university training places available (against the wishes of the doctors’ unions) to guard against the coming demographic changes and the next shock to the system.
I don't agree with tax offsets on business health care for a number of reasons but I think as a nation we should debate about paying for ever more expensive non palliative treatments in a futile attempt to help the old to live forever. I read somewhere that 90% of healthcare costs are incurred in the last few months of life and there must be questions about how cost-effective that is.
It’s not 90%. But healthcare costs do tend to be highest in old age and the end stages of life. It’s complicated, unsurprisingly, but see https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1361028/ That doesn’t answer the question in the way you’re phrasing it, but has about half of your lifetime healthcare costs coming after 65.
What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?
We have to bolster our own resources for the mutual defence of our many other allies, and hold the fort until the US returns to its senses.
On the political/diplomatic front we see a willingness by British politicians to strengthen existing multilateral defence relationships, with an announcement yesterday about a partnership with Norway/Sweden/Finland, and the trilateral alliance with Poland/Ukraine that was signed in February.
However, we're not providing any more financial resources so that the armed forces can substantiate these promises.
It's tricky though. Who are we defending against? The traditional threat is Russia but their efforts in Ukraine have shown them to be the paper tiger some, like me, always believed them to be. They are not a conventional threat to us. They may be capable of being a nuisiance to some of those we have allied with and we need to be able to deploy a meaningful force to support them. They are also an "unconventional" threat with the likes of cyber and terrorist attacks like Salisbury. This requires different responses.
The alternative threat is China. Again, because of geography, this is not a direct threat but a threat to those we are allied to such as Australia, and arguably Taiwan. We have a strategic interest in Taiwan at the moment because it provides 50% of our chips but that strategic liability will disappear later this year as new production facilities come online. So do we need to back up our carriers with more blue sea capability? Maybe but its not a compelling case.
Meantime we have serious economic crises at home. We are struggling to fund the NHS, we are being extremely harsh to those on benefits by increases significantly below inflation, we cannot restore the triple lock for pensioners, we are being extremely unkind to those with student debt and our infrastructure spending is well below what we need.
You are in No 10. What do you choose?
Going by the occupants the wrong choice for sure unless that happens to be the one that enriches them and their chums
What should the UK do if it’s main ally takes a turn against democracy?
We have to bolster our own resources for the mutual defence of our many other allies, and hold the fort until the US returns to its senses.
On the political/diplomatic front we see a willingness by British politicians to strengthen existing multilateral defence relationships, with an announcement yesterday about a partnership with Norway/Sweden/Finland, and the trilateral alliance with Poland/Ukraine that was signed in February.
However, we're not providing any more financial resources so that the armed forces can substantiate these promises.
It's tricky though. Who are we defending against? The traditional threat is Russia but their efforts in Ukraine have shown them to be the paper tiger some, like me, always believed them to be. They are not a conventional threat to us. They may be capable of being a nuisiance to some of those we have allied with and we need to be able to deploy a meaningful force to support them. They are also an "unconventional" threat with the likes of cyber and terrorist attacks like Salisbury. This requires different responses.
The alternative threat is China. Again, because of geography, this is not a direct threat but a threat to those we are allied to such as Australia, and arguably Taiwan. We have a strategic interest in Taiwan at the moment because it provides 50% of our chips but that strategic liability will disappear later this year as new production facilities come online. So do we need to back up our carriers with more blue sea capability? Maybe but its not a compelling case.
Meantime we have serious economic crises at home. We are struggling to fund the NHS, we are being extremely harsh to those on benefits by increases significantly below inflation, we cannot restore the triple lock for pensioners, we are being extremely unkind to those with student debt and our infrastructure spending is well below what we need.
You are in No 10. What do you choose?
My worry in the medium-term about Russia is that the main reason their forces are performing so badly is that they are badly led. Resources that should have paid for equipment was used to pay for superyachts. Morale is so low that soldiers sell their unit's fuel for vodka.
But Ukraine shows how this can be turned around with better leadership. The risk is that, out of the ashes of Putin's War, a new Russia emerges, determined not to be humiliated again, that cracks down on corruption and rebuilds a Russian army that will surprise complacent observers in the next conflict.
With the potential for American isolationism, at best, the calculus could look very different by 2028 or so.
Politicians should be honest with the public. The rest of the decade looks like various different gradations of shit, I don't see any way out of that. I could certainly give you a disparate list of policy ideas that I believe would more fairly distribute the pain, and make a decent start on fixing some of our long-term problems, but I suspect it wouldn't survive scrutiny by the Daily Mail.
I'm inclined towards glorious failure. If I were in No 10 I would at least try to do what I thought was necessary, and to convince the public that anyone who told them there was a painless way out was lying to them.
Our local GP is still refusing in person appointments or phone calls. Everything needs to be online.
You bet we are unhappy with them. If I was a regular Joe on the street I’d probably blame the NHS even though GPs are semi detached
Change your GP? I've not heard of anything like that in my area, and I had two visits for minor non-covid things at a few days' notice. The only novelty is a default assumption that a phone consultation is usually the best first step. Maybe we're exceptionally lucky - what are others finding?
My GP is in Camden and they are very discouraging of anything that might smack of individual choice
The Germany energy ministry has just urged every household and business in the country to use as little gas as possible ahead of a Kremlin deadline for EU firms to pay their bills in rubles by tomorrow. /1
There is no sign that Germany will comply with Putin's ultimatum, even though Russia has explicitly said it will turn off the taps unless Gazprom and other state-owned energy companies receive payment in rubles. /2
This doesn't seem a bad approach. Effectively cutting off the gas can be blamed on the Russians who are the ones threatening to cut supply. That then gives the government room to advise on being careful about usage without seeming to lecture people.
Comments
Not very, I think.
Public satisfaction with NHS drops to 25-year low
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-60917585
The figures for social care are even more dismal.
https://www.minusrus.com/en/
If they were to carry on taking losses at the same rate, there would barely be a Russian military by the end of the year, while the Ukranians would continue to be supplied with pretty much unlimited Western / NATO equipment.
Let’s hope that we now quickly end up with a ceasefire outside the Donbass, and we can start to send the rebuild aid. Even if the war finishes outside of that region, there is a lot of damaged infrastructure such as bridges and power stations that need to be quickly restored to allow the rest of Ukraine to return to something approaching normality.
The danger is that the fighting stops and Ukraine drops off the news, and we all forget that there’s a bombed-out country that needs rebuilding.
Putin wants Ukraine. If he fails (as seems possible), he will try again in a few years. Any 'peace' that leaves him able to do so, having rebuilt his military and having learnt from the mistakes, would be a false peace.
we cannot trust Putin. Too many politicians will be wanting to get back to the 'old' normal. That cannot happen until Putin is gone.
https://www.gbnews.uk/news/people-in-england-with-a-cough-or-cold-urged-to-stay-at-home-and-avoid-contact-with-others/260129
A friendly reminder that Covid still exists and there will be new guidelines (for England at least) as free tests end this week, and also that GB News still exists.
Start with corporation tax offsets for any companies providing private healthcare or insurance to all their staff, set up a teaching hospital in Mumbai or Manila handing out British medical qualifications and visas, recognise medical qualifications from more English-speaking countries etc.
Local reforms can include fixing the GP system, which by all accounts is totally broken. Encourage virtual appointments for those who want them, freeing up other doctors for in-person consultations.
Our resident doctor here, has noted that specialist training pretty much stopped for two years thanks to the pandemic, so look at bringing in temporary expatriate specialists to free up the time for teaching, while dramatically increasing university training places available (against the wishes of the doctors’ unions) to guard against the coming demographic changes and the next shock to the system.
Russia is more than self-sufficient in food and fuel, don’t let them tell us that sanctions will leave people starving. Let them buy farm equipment with hard currency if that’s required. Meanwhile, offer long-term visas to skilled Russians, in the same way as the West did with skilled Germans in 1945.
There are major problems with specialist training having stopped, with burnt-out staff taking early retirement, and the pre-pandemic problem of doctors working part-time only. The under-provisioning of medical school places is a perennial scandal, of course. And with the number of drop-outs of junior doctors, one wonders if current methods of selection for medical school might be badly flawed, and also the newish system for specialist training.
You bet we are unhappy with them. If I was a regular Joe on the street I’d probably blame the NHS even though GPs are semi detached
There are no quick and easy solutions to rebuild human and physical capacity, not least because every country in the world is struggling with the same issues.
https://www.theregister.com/2022/03/29/nhs_hospitals_ai/
The corollary is that if hospitals know when A&E will be overloaded, they also can know when there will be quiet spells during which they can clear the backlog of elective procedures.
One way to combat population decline.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/29/british-fighters-describe-battle-irpin-residents-mourn-destruction/
Also IIRC, the issue with qualifications was an issue when the UK was in the EU, required to accept all EU qualifications without question, and with a number of issues resulting from language difficulties. It may well be, that the only way to fix the shortage will be with high-paid short-term temporary contracts and visas, for specialists from all over the world to work in both public and private sectors.
Simply throwing more money at an unreformed NHS though, that’s a great example of a sunk cost fallacy. No other Western country has an NHS, and for good reason.
The problem is that false negatives are a disaster, so you have to maintain a level of readiness anyway.
All we had to do was vote for the foreigners to go home...
Downing Street is exploring yet another (4th) delay to post-Brexit border checks on goods entering Britain from the EU to prevent what industry has warned would be a supply chain disaster
by me, @GeorgeWParker & @pmdfoster
https://www.ft.com/content/53636e5d-eaaf-4d45-a3bc-a827d4b551a0
Even now it’s mind-boggling; the UK has put up barriers to its own exports but cannot risk imposing this barriers on imports. Brexit was and always will be plain old stupid.
https://twitter.com/JMPSimor/status/1508966495325458433
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60919474
If the French can implement it, why can't we? It's not as if we weren't anticipating it, and have known for 3 years it would be a hard border.
EDIT: here is the key explainer https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1508928456913997841/photo/1
Even if there is a ceasefire, none if this is over while Putin remains in power.
https://mobile.twitter.com/EuromaidanPress/status/1509052353579831297
After Russia invaded Ukraine, German Finance Minister Christian Lindner "with a polite smile" told Ambassador Melnyk that Ukraine had only a few hours left, soi t was "senseless" to supply weapons to Kyiv & disconnect Russia from SWIFT, Melnyk told FAZ
https://faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/andrij-melnyk-ukrainischer-botschafter-in-verzweifelter-mission-17909743.html
Instead, Lindner wanted to talk about 🇷🇺-occupied Ukraine with the imposed 🇷🇺 puppet government.
"It was the worst conversation in my life," -Melnyk
Before start of Russia's full-blown invasion, Germany opposed supplying weapons to Ukraine so as to not "escalate" in Donbas...
On the political/diplomatic front we see a willingness by British politicians to strengthen existing multilateral defence relationships, with an announcement yesterday about a partnership with Norway/Sweden/Finland, and the trilateral alliance with Poland/Ukraine that was signed in February.
However, we're not providing any more financial resources so that the armed forces can substantiate these promises.
Is it possible he's still a decent outside bet for the leadership ?
One is that the hard border into the UK has to deal with more stuff- all of our imports from Fr, Ge, Sp and all the rest. France just to deal with one country of imports. The scale of the UK"s job is off-puttingly hard.
The other is that, even now, the Brexit gang haven't worked out what they want. There's a small but vocal slice who think that we should just open our borders to anything from anywhere. JRM for example. To come down on one side or the other is to break the coalition... far easier to stay in perpetual limbo.
They always wanted unicorns.
They got us to vote for unicorns.
They are just trying to delay the moment when they have to acknowledge unicorns don't exist...
I'm slightly surprised by the attitude of some people who seem to want the war to finish ASAP (now the Ukrainians are fighting back). I understand that conflicts may be harder to settle the longer they continue but this one has only being going on for a month. And the Ukrainians have been living under the threat of full scale invasion with a frozen conflict in the east for 8 years.
I'll be honest. I think some of it is coming from people who thought the Russians would win easily (Niall Feguson) and now have egg on their faces.
If the TCA is a donkey with one of Leon's products strapped to its nose, that's awkward to admit.
Does the buck stop with Boris Johnson on these #partygate fines?
Dominic Raab: "Ultimately individuals take responsibility" - and the Prime Minister told the truth "to the best of his ability" 👇
#KayBurley BH https://twitter.com/KayBurley/status/1509059324185911298/video/1
In order to do any of these things you need spare capacity, and we simply don't. Reserve capacity in practice only comes by slowing or stopping elective work, that is by cancelling operations because there are no beds. That keeps the ward working, but what are the surgeon and theatre staff to do? Our NHS policy of stopping elective care at peak demand is not efficient, it is inefficient. If it happened a couple of days a year it might be appropriate, but when it is most weeks of the winter it isn't.
The alternative threat is China. Again, because of geography, this is not a direct threat but a threat to those we are allied to such as Australia, and arguably Taiwan. We have a strategic interest in Taiwan at the moment because it provides 50% of our chips but that strategic liability will disappear later this year as new production facilities come online. So do we need to back up our carriers with more blue sea capability? Maybe but its not a compelling case.
Meantime we have serious economic crises at home. We are struggling to fund the NHS, we are being extremely harsh to those on benefits by increases significantly below inflation, we cannot restore the triple lock for pensioners, we are being extremely unkind to those with student debt and our infrastructure spending is well below what we need.
You are in No 10. What do you choose?
Shortfalls in healthcare staff in the Western world have ALWAYS been filled by bringing in healthcare professionals from the developing world. The problem now is that everywhere is facing the same post-COVID problems. We can increase university places, but it takes a long time to train a doctor, let alone a senior one, so important to think about, but not a quick fix.
No other Western country has an NHS, but most of them also spend more. The NHS is very efficient by international standards. Increase spending to comparable levels with France and Germany and you’ll solve plenty of the NHS’s problems.
The US is particularly broken, spending a high proportion of its GDP on healthcare, yet without providing coverage for much of the population and with poor outcomes. The lesson is clear: don’t do what the US does on healthcare.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2022_French_presidential_election?msclkid=1583655aaff911ecbc29c497f1b86e13
1. Ends the shelling of civilians in Ukraine.
2. Ends the risk of escalation into a conflict involving NATO and/or WMD.
3. Reduces the wider economic damage.
4. Process of refugees returning to Ukraine could begin.
However, I think the stated policy of HMG, that Putin must fail and to be seen to fail, is the one I want our government to pursue.
If we were serious that more red tape and paperwork and delays and cost was was British business needed to be globally competitive then why haven't we built the IT HR and physical systems to actually do the thing?
There is no sign that Germany will comply with Putin's ultimatum, even though Russia has explicitly said it will turn off the taps unless Gazprom and other state-owned energy companies receive payment in rubles. /2
https://twitter.com/olivernmoody/status/1509065487484952584
But Ukraine shows how this can be turned around with better leadership. The risk is that, out of the ashes of Putin's War, a new Russia emerges, determined not to be humiliated again, that cracks down on corruption and rebuilds a Russian army that will surprise complacent observers in the next conflict.
With the potential for American isolationism, at best, the calculus could look very different by 2028 or so.
Politicians should be honest with the public. The rest of the decade looks like various different gradations of shit, I don't see any way out of that. I could certainly give you a disparate list of policy ideas that I believe would more fairly distribute the pain, and make a decent start on fixing some of our long-term problems, but I suspect it wouldn't survive scrutiny by the Daily Mail.
I'm inclined towards glorious failure. If I were in No 10 I would at least try to do what I thought was necessary, and to convince the public that anyone who told them there was a painless way out was lying to them.