NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Just so. Oddly Biden by accident or design may have played a blinder on this. I can now probably add this to my wrong calls.
Translated first had account from a civilian who made it out of Mariupol. Read the whole thread.
https://twitter.com/rshereme/status/1504579756221558792 Yesterday, at our own risk, we left Mariupol under gunfire. We stayed overnight in a field in a gray zone. It was freezing outside, thank God we are alive. We are alive to scream that everyone who stayed in Mariupol needs help!...
As many know. this alleged whistleblower has continued sending long-winded letters to http://Gulagu.net. I haven't changed my position on the authenticity. The content and style are consistent with FSB/GRU analytical reports I have read. This doesn't mean they are correct.
"And "Sunsepeks" still need to be brought to Kiev, risking turning the entire column into dust after just one successful hit. A massive UAV attack, a lonely artillery volley, an ambush - one hit in one particular car - and the result will be grandiosely negative."
Is the writer saying that Russian tactical nukes are not one-point safe?
FFS
EDIT:
"And the key surprise is that Ukraine was left from centralized management, all military decisions were completely given to the military (without political tasks). The same was the case with the regional authorities, which made the operational management extremely flexible. Taking into account the fact that the information battle was lost, this war became domestic for Ukrainians, destroying plans for the format of the special operation finally."
Reading that piece from the 16th in WSJ about the defence of a small town in Ukraine - it was very much local initiative, backed by the central armed forces. Local farmers scarping a river bank to prevent amphibious crossing directed by the Mayor etc etc...
I think you are misreading. Or it has been edited with an explanatory comment covering your first question. Have another look.
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
I will freely admit I expected Russia to win in the first or, at worst, second week. I think they did too which is why their logistics have been so appalling since. A bit like the Germans invading Russia with only summer uniforms during Barbarrosa. The surprises for me has been the rigour of the Ukrainian defence and the massive response in sanctions which have really hurt Russia. Both good surprises for a nice change.
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
I will freely admit I expected Russia to win in the first or, at worst, second week. I think they did too which is why their logistics have been so appalling since. A bit like the Germans invading Russia with only summer uniforms during Barbarrosa. The surprises for me has been the rigour of the Ukrainian defence and the massive response in sanctions which have really hurt Russia. Both good surprises for a nice change.
On thing that we don't see at all is that Ukraine apparently has a NATO standard battlefield management system. That makes for a massive disparity in command and control between the two sides.
At least know we know what's behind the RAF purchase of 2 x Dassault Falcon 900LX which have the legs for BZN-ASI. Although they are going to be flown by civvie crews probably for reasons of some sibylline legal arcana.
The first French built aircraft in British military service since the Nieuport Scout by my reckoning.
There are two dark blue (what I was told were Dassault) that fly over Dartmouth regularly and again, I was told, are full of kit that can simulate an attack on a warship - and which they use at Britannia Naval College for training the cadets.
Those are the FRA/Cobham Falcon 20s and are civvie registered. The 20 had the same wing as the Mystere and therefore the wired hardpoints for pylons. This made them very useful for carrying pods to simulate threats, etc.
I was wrong anyway. I forgot about the Boscombe Alphas. Aquired because Hawks were too departure resistant to train test pilots.
Technically the Curtiss Hawks, Helldivers (biplane kind) and Bostons were en route to France and diverted from France to RAF service when France fell, but I'm not sure they were paid for. The Hawks at least had metric instruments and the throttle connected the wrong way round by Raff standards, which must have caused more than a few frightening moments and the odd demise.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
I said a good while back that Putin would keep trashing Ukraine cities even if Ukraine had capitulated, demanding the end of all sanctions and blaming us for all deaths in Ukraine until we did.
At least know we know what's behind the RAF purchase of 2 x Dassault Falcon 900LX which have the legs for BZN-ASI. Although they are going to be flown by civvie crews probably for reasons of some sibylline legal arcana.
The first French built aircraft in British military service since the Nieuport Scout by my reckoning.
There are two dark blue (what I was told were Dassault) that fly over Dartmouth regularly and again, I was told, are full of kit that can simulate an attack on a warship - and which they use at Britannia Naval College for training the cadets.
Those are the FRA/Cobham Falcon 20s and are civvie registered. The 20 had the same wing as the Mystere and therefore the wired hardpoints for pylons. This made them very useful for carrying pods to simulate threats, etc.
I was wrong anyway. I forgot about the Boscombe Alphas. Aquired because Hawks were too departure resistant to train test pilots.
Technically the Curtiss Hawks, Helldivers (biplane kind) and Bostons were en route to France and diverted from France to RAF service when France fell, but I'm not sure they were paid for. The Hawks at least had metric instruments and the throttle connected the wrong way round by Raff standards, which must have caused more than a few frightening moments and the odd demise.
I was going to say flying Hawks against the Luftwaffe might have caused a few frightening moments in itself but I see a Hawk shot down a 109e as the first allied victory of the war so it was obviously a better aircraft than I thought.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
I will freely admit I expected Russia to win in the first or, at worst, second week. I think they did too which is why their logistics have been so appalling since. A bit like the Germans invading Russia with only summer uniforms during Barbarrosa. The surprises for me has been the rigour of the Ukrainian defence and the massive response in sanctions which have really hurt Russia. Both good surprises for a nice change.
On thing that we don't see at all is that Ukraine apparently has a NATO standard battlefield management system. That makes for a massive disparity in command and control between the two sides.
If the quality and quantity of military supply is high enough we could say this IS a war between Russia and NATO. Except of course we mustn't say that.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
I will freely admit I expected Russia to win in the first or, at worst, second week. I think they did too which is why their logistics have been so appalling since. A bit like the Germans invading Russia with only summer uniforms during Barbarrosa. The surprises for me has been the rigour of the Ukrainian defence and the massive response in sanctions which have really hurt Russia. Both good surprises for a nice change.
I suspect Putin was expecting the equivalent of Iraq 2003 or Poland 1939 - both of which were effectively over inside three weeks.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
I agree, but it may be hard especially if the Ukrainians ask for it as a Russian requirement for peace.
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
I will freely admit I expected Russia to win in the first or, at worst, second week. I think they did too which is why their logistics have been so appalling since. A bit like the Germans invading Russia with only summer uniforms during Barbarrosa. The surprises for me has been the rigour of the Ukrainian defence and the massive response in sanctions which have really hurt Russia. Both good surprises for a nice change.
I suspect Putin was expecting the equivalent of Iraq 2003 or Poland 1939 - both of which were effectively over inside three weeks.
IANAE, but isn't their a bit of myth-making about Poland '39? Poland were hurting the Germans in the first couple of weeks, but then Russia opened another front and made their defensive lines against the Germans untenable. If the Russians had not joined in, might it have affected the entire war?
I hate aftertiming, but PB didn't exist when his The End of History thesis first got publicity (1999?) so you will just have to take my word for it that I identified it at the time as the thesis of a complete and utter wanker. And here we are in 2022...
Yes, it was the equivalent of the late 19th century physicists who thought they’d sorted all of physics, apart from a few small tidying up issues, just before quantum theory exploded everything.
My very first comment when the book was described to me by a very close and long-standing friends was "Bollocks. The pendulum is going to swing back."
I think it would be fair to say that history restarted on September 11th 2001.
Russian forces have made minimal progress this week.
Ukrainian forces around Kyiv and Mykolaiv continue to frustrate Russian attempts to encircle the cities. The cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain encircled and subject to heavy Russian shelling.
The UN now states that the number of refugees fleeing the conflict in Ukraine has already surpassed 3.2 million. This number will continue to rise as a result of ongoing Russian aggression.
Russia has so many forces investing other cities, and protecting its supply lines, that they aren't strong enough anywhere to launch a decisive assualt - particularly in Kyiv.
They are attacking Ukraine like they have 500,000+ troops, like the Red Army did in WWII, rather than the 175k troops they really have. I suspect that's down to the Russian generals being too afraid to tell Putin the truth and give him proper military advice. Now, any withdrawal and consolidation of forces would be a humiliation, so he's stuck and probably will become increasingly enraged about it.
Can the attack on Ukraine be sold as the Great Patriotic War, as WWII was? PoW's and the wounded are, I strongly suspect, getting much better treatment from the Ukrainians than Red Army troops in a similar situation did from the Wehrmacht. And these things get back!
The polling in Russia does seem to show widespread support for the war, from Survation:
A significant majority of Russians (69%) believe the military's purpose is that of a “Liberator” which is a stated purpose of the Kremlin, 62% see Russia’s role as “peacekeeper”. Just 13% see Russia as the “aggressor". https://t.co/7d4yBARea6
Much lower support in the military age though:
It's possible, but how reliable is polling in an increasingly repressive dictatorship ? Would you honestly answer any political questions from a polling company ?
We do have to allow for scepticism/fear, but the relative numbers are interesting. As expected, young people and people who mainly get their news from social media are far more sceptical than older TV news consumers. The poll shows a fair amount of opposition/don't knows about Putin and all the other figures in the poll (and I suspect the don't knows include a fair number of scared negatives). The most significant findings are probably that they expect a fairly short war (1-2 months) and that all groups anticipate domestic problems resulting from the war and the sanctions (they only divide on whether the perceived objectives are worth the cost). Those are figures that can turn nasty for Putin if the war drags on.
The age gap is not only social media, I suspect. Partly the older generation will have had parents in WW2 whose thinking was entirely dominated by who fought whom in that conflict - talk about Ukrainian Nazis has much more resonance for them than someone aged 20, for whom it's all as abstract as World War 1. Younger people in most countries, especially oligarchies, are on average more internationalist, more liberal and more sceptical of autocratic leadership - which amid all this is still a reason to hope for better times.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
If Putin disappears it will be important not to humiliate Russia for the actions of Putin. Sanctions against oligarchs who cannot demonstrate the source of their wealth should remain IMO though. Russia could even be encouraged to improve it's democratic and constitutional structure to work toward associate status of the EU perhaps
It’s one thing Bono writing that shit, it’s another one Pelosi reading it.
She should have stuck with Yeats, as @Cyclefree could have told her.
Fucking morons the lot of them.
Happy St Patrick’s Day, all.
I think some allowance has to be made for very old people thinking Bono is quite the young hipster, helping them to connect with de yoot. Next up, Mick and the boys (the ones left alive) introduce Biden’s state of the union address.
No. No allowance
You would not grant Trump any latitude
This woman probably should not be in charge of a shopping cart, she is orders of magnitude incapable of running a superpower. It is embarrassing and scary that America is reduced to this, just as we tiptoe towards World War 3
Isn't it good news she isn't, then?
She's two heartbeats away from running the USA, and she has significant power in the Capitol
It's ridiculous. She's my sad demented aunty Lois on the sauce.
America, get a grip
By January it will probably be GOP leader Kevin Mccarthy after the midterms who replaces Pelosi as Speaker and 3rd in line anyway.
Mccarthy is 57
Thank fuck
I don't envy American voters. The Democrats are diseased and need to be hurled into oblivion for a decade to acquire more sense and better leaders. And yet, Trump and the GOP contrive to be worse?!
Maybe Putin and China are right. Democracy is fatally flawed
It's not a good time to be doubting the fundamentals of western freedom, but America is making me do that
Liberal democracy is dying and the US will be the first to fall. What follows will be far worse than communism would have been. You had your chance.
Communism isn't compatible with liberal democracy, and who's to say that communism isn't what's coming to the US anyway?
I think Lenin and the Bolshevik’s were actually in the Liberal Democrat party?
Certainty knew their barcharts, but more felt boots than sandals imo.
I haven’t a clue what that means 🤷♀️
Correct me where wrong, When Lenin’s sealed train, and boat, reached Russia it’s the Liberal Democrat Party that’s waiting for him, for that’s the party he is in and the ones governing Russia that day. And he tore them off a strip because his party colleagues had stopped the revolution he wanted. The smaller Liberal Democrat party faction were Lenin supporters, called themselves bolsheviks to make out they are in the majority. One of our PB historians (not Dr Y he goes to bed early but maybe HYUFD might back me up, because the way to view is it not post 20th century but with our mind in the 19th century the century of liberal revolutions thst throw off feudalism where left and right, especially in 1948, were on the same side. In fact I think St Bart will support me on this: first of all feudalism and mercantilism had to go, and then the argument between socialism and capitalism. You can’t really have Soviet Union without capitalism, it’s like vital ingredients of a cake)
I hope that helps. By all means correct me where wrong.
If you like:
1) Lenin wasn’t a member of the Liberal Democrats. He was a member of the Social Democratic Labour Party.
2) They did provide several members of the provisional government, but most members were from the Socialist Revolutionaries and their allies.
3) It’s also misleading to characterise Lenin as being in the same party as Martov. Although it’s technically true, the party had over the previous 15 years split into factions, of which the three largest were the Mensheviks, who looked to Martov, the Bolsheviks, who looked to Lenin, and an unaligned group led by Trotsky that flitted between the two.
4) The reason Lenin’s supporters were called ‘Bolsheviks’ is that at the meeting in London where the split happened they had a majority of votes. That wasn’t representative of the party at large, which is why the name became used ironically.
5) Russia was not going down the path of liberal democracy before Lenin and Trotsky wrecked it. If Lenin hadn’t seized power and established a dictatorship, somebody else would have done, possibly Kornilov. Any realistic chance Russia could have developed democratically died with Alexander II in 1881.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
It's worse than bollocks - it's an implicit justification for characters like Putin going to war to get what they want.
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
I will freely admit I expected Russia to win in the first or, at worst, second week. I think they did too which is why their logistics have been so appalling since. A bit like the Germans invading Russia with only summer uniforms during Barbarrosa. The surprises for me has been the rigour of the Ukrainian defence and the massive response in sanctions which have really hurt Russia. Both good surprises for a nice change.
I suspect Putin was expecting the equivalent of Iraq 2003 or Poland 1939 - both of which were effectively over inside three weeks.
IANAE, but isn't their a bit of myth-making about Poland '39? Poland were hurting the Germans in the first couple of weeks, but then Russia opened another front and made their defensive lines against the Germans untenable. If the Russians had not joined in, might it have affected the entire war?
Is that a realistic viewpoint?
I thought it was that the Soviets invaded because the Germans had already reached the agreed partition line.
I think the Poles were planning on retreating to the 'Romanian bridgehead' but the Soviet invasion ended that possibility.
"Why extending the Ukrainian refugee scheme to Afghans is deeply Tory Host families address the usual fears of cost to the taxpayer and ghettoised communities. By Tom Harwood"
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
I will freely admit I expected Russia to win in the first or, at worst, second week. I think they did too which is why their logistics have been so appalling since. A bit like the Germans invading Russia with only summer uniforms during Barbarrosa. The surprises for me has been the rigour of the Ukrainian defence and the massive response in sanctions which have really hurt Russia. Both good surprises for a nice change.
On thing that we don't see at all is that Ukraine apparently has a NATO standard battlefield management system. That makes for a massive disparity in command and control between the two sides.
If the quality and quantity of military supply is high enough we could say this IS a war between Russia and NATO. Except of course we mustn't say that.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
There is a real concern, as the nuclear weapons Putin is developing are first strike weapons. The nuclear torpedoes carrying multi megaton warheads could take out half of the US coastal cities, without any real warning.
The temptation for someone as far gone as Putin to use such weapons to destroy his primary adversary is a very dangerous one.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
If Putin disappears it will be important not to humiliate Russia for the actions of Putin. Sanctions against oligarchs who cannot demonstrate the source of their wealth should remain IMO though. Russia could even be encouraged to improve it's democratic and constitutional structure to work toward associate status of the EU perhaps
I would like to see all ill-gotten gains of Putin and Okigarchs etc hunted down and seized and handed over to a trust.
The whole ethos of the trust - maybe called the “Russian Restorative Fund” would be to very publicly tell the Russian people that these assets were stolen and when they were cold and hungry these kleptocrats were living the high life on their pain. The funds would then be spent on things for ordinary Russians - schools, nurseries, hospitals with safety windows….
If the Russian people see the scale of the theft and how they were gaslighted then there is more hope of getting any reformist govt there to stick as the people see real tangible benefits of their new world and don’t just sink into the mindset of “the new lot are just like the old lot so we’ll just carry on as before grumbling quietly in our crappy lives”.
Totally OT, interesting take on how the staffers in the US Senate, which is made up of extremely old people with offices staffed by extremely young people, snuck through the abolition of daylight savings time while everyone was busy with Ukraine:
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
With the joke phone calls, that got more jokey as a giveaway, what if a player didn’t get jokey and cleverly fished for info and hung up as genuine, it could have been very unhelpful? Couldn’t they use code words to firewall such things?
Mr. Rabbit, given the rule changes I'm a bit wary of proper bets, although I have had some free bets, primarily on Ferrari/McLaren drivers and teams. At the moment, the Prancing Horse is looking rather more promising.
Glancing at the market (seeing as you've asked), Leclerc/Sainz at 5.5 and 7.5 respectively each way for the win (only top 2 with Ladbrokes, alas) may appeal.
With betfair, they're 2.02 and 2.6 for podium finishes, which may also prove tempting.
I'd probably only use free bets or tiny stakes at this stage. We still don't know a lot of things about how the teams' pace and new rules will play out. Also critical is how Ricciardo and Hulkenberg fare having very little running, especially the latter, and if McLaren can fix their brake problems.
Emine Dzheppar @EmineDzheppar Ukraine government official The #Pentagon says that #Ukrainian army has set a record for the effectiveness of the use of portable anti-tank systems #Javelin. Out of 112 shots, 100 hit the target. We are proud of our army and Ukrainian defenders! Glory to the Heroes! 🇺🇦 https://twitter.com/EmineDzheppar/status/1504753485245566977
I hate aftertiming, but PB didn't exist when his The End of History thesis first got publicity (1999?) so you will just have to take my word for it that I identified it at the time as the thesis of a complete and utter wanker. And here we are in 2022...
Yes, it was the equivalent of the late 19th century physicists who thought they’d sorted all of physics, apart from a few small tidying up issues, just before quantum theory exploded everything.
My very first comment when the book was described to me by a very close and long-standing friends was "Bollocks. The pendulum is going to swing back."
I think it would be fair to say that history restarted on September 11th 2001.
It's as good a date as any but the truth is that it never stopped and the incredible growth of China in the preceding decade made it obvious (in hindsight) that the balance of power was going to swing again and that the hegemony of the west and their capitalist system was going to be relatively shortlived. Which is a very long way of saying he was an idiot.
Mr. Rabbit, given the rule changes I'm a bit wary of proper bets, although I have had some free bets, primarily on Ferrari/McLaren drivers and teams. At the moment, the Prancing Horse is looking rather more promising.
Glancing at the market (seeing as you've asked), Leclerc/Sainz at 5.5 and 7.5 respectively each way for the win (only top 2 with Ladbrokes, alas) may appeal.
With betfair, they're 2.02 and 2.6 for podium finishes, which may also prove tempting.
I'd probably only use free bets or tiny stakes at this stage. We still don't know a lot of things about how the teams' pace and new rules will play out. Also critical is how Ricciardo and Hulkenberg fare having very little running, especially the latter, and if McLaren can fix their brake problems.
Thank you.
Seems to me Ferrari problem in recent years they have let good drivers down with some poor decisions on race day.
These new rules were designed to create more level playing field? This could backfire after all the teams innovating?
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
Indeed. Old chestnuts can enlighten or obscure, depending. Some I like, most I don't. Although some are quite interesting - eg one that really makes you stop and think is Sheryl Crow's maxim, "If it makes you happy it can't be that bad." When I first came across this I thought (as per usual) Bollocks. But as I thought about it more deeply I realized it couldn't be dismissed so airily. It's actually a very interesting assertion.
At least know we know what's behind the RAF purchase of 2 x Dassault Falcon 900LX which have the legs for BZN-ASI. Although they are going to be flown by civvie crews probably for reasons of some sibylline legal arcana.
The first French built aircraft in British military service since the Nieuport Scout by my reckoning.
There are two dark blue (what I was told were Dassault) that fly over Dartmouth regularly and again, I was told, are full of kit that can simulate an attack on a warship - and which they use at Britannia Naval College for training the cadets.
Those are the FRA/Cobham Falcon 20s and are civvie registered. The 20 had the same wing as the Mystere and therefore the wired hardpoints for pylons. This made them very useful for carrying pods to simulate threats, etc.
I was wrong anyway. I forgot about the Boscombe Alphas. Aquired because Hawks were too departure resistant to train test pilots.
Technically the Curtiss Hawks, Helldivers (biplane kind) and Bostons were en route to France and diverted from France to RAF service when France fell, but I'm not sure they were paid for. The Hawks at least had metric instruments and the throttle connected the wrong way round by Raff standards, which must have caused more than a few frightening moments and the odd demise.
I was going to say flying Hawks against the Luftwaffe might have caused a few frightening moments in itself but I see a Hawk shot down a 109e as the first allied victory of the war so it was obviously a better aircraft than I thought.
Maybe a fluke? I seem to remember reading that Boulton-Paul Defiants did quite well early on as the German pilots mistook them for Hurricanes.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
Indeed. Old chestnuts can enlighten or obscure, depending. Some I like, most I don't. Although some are quite interesting - eg one that really makes you stop and think is Sheryl Crow's maxim, "If it makes you happy it can't be that bad." When I first came across this I thought (as per usual) Bollocks. But as I thought about it more deeply I realized it couldn't be dismissed so airily. It's actually a very interesting assertion.
Not much of a plea in mitigation for a serial killer though.... "It made me happy..."
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
Indeed. Old chestnuts can enlighten or obscure, depending. Some I like, most I don't. Although some are quite interesting - eg one that really makes you stop and think is Sheryl Crow's maxim, "If it makes you happy it can't be that bad." When I first came across this I thought (as per usual) Bollocks. But as I thought about it more deeply I realized it couldn't be dismissed so airily. It's actually a very interesting assertion.
Is Sheryl actually asserting it, or is she describing the mantra of a particular personality type?
"Worse, the KIAs probably are concentrated in front-line units. Infantry. Armor. Artillery. Those combat arms represent a minority of the invasion force. It’s entirely possible that, in combat units along the front, losses exceed half."
I hate aftertiming, but PB didn't exist when his The End of History thesis first got publicity (1999?) so you will just have to take my word for it that I identified it at the time as the thesis of a complete and utter wanker. And here we are in 2022...
Yes, it was the equivalent of the late 19th century physicists who thought they’d sorted all of physics, apart from a few small tidying up issues, just before quantum theory exploded everything.
My very first comment when the book was described to me by a very close and long-standing friends was "Bollocks. The pendulum is going to swing back."
I think it would be fair to say that history restarted on September 11th 2001.
It's as good a date as any but the truth is that it never stopped and the incredible growth of China in the preceding decade made it obvious (in hindsight) that the balance of power was going to swing again and that the hegemony of the west and their capitalist system was going to be relatively shortlived. Which is a very long way of saying he was an idiot.
The growth of China was obvious but at the time it looked like as they developed they'd also democratize. Even now I don't think that's totally refuted, China might just need some time.
I’ll post this now, keep eye an eye on NR, and post again if a new thread pops up.
*Betting Post 🐎 Day 4
I’ve posted 5 wins from 12 tips, 4 more chances to try and get 1 more. I havn’t kept tabs on minor placing as my bets have been win bets, but I don’t think I’ve had many minor placings from these tips - certainly not yesterday, very difficult day.
What’s going to guide me today? My note book is going to guide me today. So many names and the notes next to them feature on the cards today. Many notebook head to heads. In fact every single tip today an entry in my notebook. However, the obvious danger is what impressed me winning a grade 2 race is now in classier field in grade 1 race. But my notebook has served me well all week.
13:30 Porticello
14:10 Tritonic
14:50 Ballygrifincottage I am excited about this one, just 3rd start under rules and here we are at Cheltenham. Serial winner at point to point, I watched rules debut at Cheltenham and it very nearly won grade 2 ahead of Blazing Khal and Gelino Bello, before resisting fierce challenge to win second race. I know Topping disagrees with me, but I still have this suspicion stables hide superstars in point to point whilst developing them.
15:30 A Plus Tard Form almost means nothing if the season was about this race, everything else merely a timely leg stretch like a pre season football match.
If you have have been waiting for me to tip some longer odds, there they are, and I havn’t finished. I don’t put everything in my littlebook, only what catches me as noteworthy. There has to be a reason Aye Right is there? So as a longshot bonus tip, Aye Right as each way bet 15:30.
Nb. Hasn’t Francesca been brilliant all week and looked gorgeous all week despite so pregnant!
Whatever you are on today, best of luck. I mean that even if you are betting against me, it’s not nice seeing horses fall over.
What I am unlikely to do this Saturday is betting or tip posting, not just because of this weeks feast has to extent satisfied appetite, but we are travelling down this evening as planned and lucky with weather for some nights away at the GFs parents, to help them with some out door work - and go in pub and walks around the countryside, so I won’t be online very much after the racing. Have a great weekend. 😘
I hate aftertiming, but PB didn't exist when his The End of History thesis first got publicity (1999?) so you will just have to take my word for it that I identified it at the time as the thesis of a complete and utter wanker. And here we are in 2022...
Yes, it was the equivalent of the late 19th century physicists who thought they’d sorted all of physics, apart from a few small tidying up issues, just before quantum theory exploded everything.
My very first comment when the book was described to me by a very close and long-standing friends was "Bollocks. The pendulum is going to swing back."
I think it would be fair to say that history restarted on September 11th 2001.
It's as good a date as any but the truth is that it never stopped and the incredible growth of China in the preceding decade made it obvious (in hindsight) that the balance of power was going to swing again and that the hegemony of the west and their capitalist system was going to be relatively shortlived. Which is a very long way of saying he was an idiot.
The growth of China was obvious but at the time it looked like as they developed they'd also democratize. Even now I don't think that's totally refuted, China might just need some time.
Masked slightly by the growth of Japan, which was slated to continue until it owned the world. People wrote novels about it.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
If Putin disappears it will be important not to humiliate Russia for the actions of Putin. Sanctions against oligarchs who cannot demonstrate the source of their wealth should remain IMO though. Russia could even be encouraged to improve it's democratic and constitutional structure to work toward associate status of the EU perhaps
I would like to see all ill-gotten gains of Putin and Okigarchs etc hunted down and seized and handed over to a trust.
The whole ethos of the trust - maybe called the “Russian Restorative Fund” would be to very publicly tell the Russian people that these assets were stolen and when they were cold and hungry these kleptocrats were living the high life on their pain. The funds would then be spent on things for ordinary Russians - schools, nurseries, hospitals with safety windows….
If the Russian people see the scale of the theft and how they were gaslighted then there is more hope of getting any reformist govt there to stick as the people see real tangible benefits of their new world and don’t just sink into the mindset of “the new lot are just like the old lot so we’ll just carry on as before grumbling quietly in our crappy lives”.
Won't ever happen.
I can imagine a lot of the 1% in the West getting extremely nervous if it does.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
Indeed. Old chestnuts can enlighten or obscure, depending. Some I like, most I don't. Although some are quite interesting - eg one that really makes you stop and think is Sheryl Crow's maxim, "If it makes you happy it can't be that bad." When I first came across this I thought (as per usual) Bollocks. But as I thought about it more deeply I realized it couldn't be dismissed so airily. It's actually a very interesting assertion.
Is Sheryl actually asserting it, or is she describing the mantra of a particular personality type?
It depends on who "you" is. Bullies get happiness from bullying.
At least know we know what's behind the RAF purchase of 2 x Dassault Falcon 900LX which have the legs for BZN-ASI. Although they are going to be flown by civvie crews probably for reasons of some sibylline legal arcana.
The first French built aircraft in British military service since the Nieuport Scout by my reckoning.
There are two dark blue (what I was told were Dassault) that fly over Dartmouth regularly and again, I was told, are full of kit that can simulate an attack on a warship - and which they use at Britannia Naval College for training the cadets.
Those are the FRA/Cobham Falcon 20s and are civvie registered. The 20 had the same wing as the Mystere and therefore the wired hardpoints for pylons. This made them very useful for carrying pods to simulate threats, etc.
I was wrong anyway. I forgot about the Boscombe Alphas. Aquired because Hawks were too departure resistant to train test pilots.
Technically the Curtiss Hawks, Helldivers (biplane kind) and Bostons were en route to France and diverted from France to RAF service when France fell, but I'm not sure they were paid for. The Hawks at least had metric instruments and the throttle connected the wrong way round by Raff standards, which must have caused more than a few frightening moments and the odd demise.
I was going to say flying Hawks against the Luftwaffe might have caused a few frightening moments in itself but I see a Hawk shot down a 109e as the first allied victory of the war so it was obviously a better aircraft than I thought.
Maybe a fluke? I seem to remember reading that Boulton-Paul Defiants did quite well early on as the German pilots mistook them for Hurricanes.
Don't think so, Wiki says the Hawk or H75 accounted for about a third of French air victories in the Battle of France and their leading ace flew one. Interestingly Britain was initially interested in the Hawk and flew comparisons with the Spitfire I over which the Hawk had some superior flying characteristics.
Covid anecdote. Very high levels of Covid where I live (village in Bucks), particularly amongst the kids. My 9yo son tested positive this morning following having a croaky throat and he's now off school. He previously had asymptomatic Delta in October 2021. None of those with it as far as I'm aware have worse than a bad cold and in most cases even less.
I know also lots of people aren't bothering to register positive tests. So Covid is clearly rushing through the population but everyone seems very relaxed about it. Not yet quite at the stage as carrying on as normal though. If we lived in a world without Covid tests then my son would still be going into school as he is not really poorly.
I hate aftertiming, but PB didn't exist when his The End of History thesis first got publicity (1999?) so you will just have to take my word for it that I identified it at the time as the thesis of a complete and utter wanker. And here we are in 2022...
Yes, it was the equivalent of the late 19th century physicists who thought they’d sorted all of physics, apart from a few small tidying up issues, just before quantum theory exploded everything.
My very first comment when the book was described to me by a very close and long-standing friends was "Bollocks. The pendulum is going to swing back."
I think it would be fair to say that history restarted on September 11th 2001.
It's as good a date as any but the truth is that it never stopped and the incredible growth of China in the preceding decade made it obvious (in hindsight) that the balance of power was going to swing again and that the hegemony of the west and their capitalist system was going to be relatively shortlived. Which is a very long way of saying he was an idiot.
The growth of China was obvious but at the time it looked like as they developed they'd also democratize. Even now I don't think that's totally refuted, China might just need some time.
Masked slightly by the growth of Japan, which was slated to continue until it owned the world. People wrote novels about it.
And learned articles in newspapers on how Japan would dominate the next Kondratiev wave.
Covid anecdote. Very high levels of Covid where I live (village in Bucks), particularly amongst the kids. My 9yo son tested positive this morning following having a croaky throat and he's now off school. He previously had asymptomatic Delta in October 2021. None of those with it as far as I'm aware have worse than a bad cold and in most cases even less.
I know also lots of people aren't bothering to register positive tests. So Covid is clearly rushing through the population but everyone seems very relaxed about it. Not yet quite at the stage as carrying on as normal though. If we lived in a world without Covid tests then my son would still be going into school as he is not really poorly.
just a reminder you can get free lft in England for the rest of this month, then not
Mr. Rabbit, yeah, Ferrari often make poor decisions.
The rules are more about making it easier to follow, and thus pass, cars ahead. At the moment, as per my ramble (below), Red Bull look fastest, then Ferrari. Mercedes may be third, and McLaren perhaps next but with work to do to fix their brakes.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
Indeed. Old chestnuts can enlighten or obscure, depending. Some I like, most I don't. Although some are quite interesting - eg one that really makes you stop and think is Sheryl Crow's maxim, "If it makes you happy it can't be that bad." When I first came across this I thought (as per usual) Bollocks. But as I thought about it more deeply I realized it couldn't be dismissed so airily. It's actually a very interesting assertion.
Not much of a plea in mitigation for a serial killer though.... "It made me happy..."
No, of course not. For it to work (or nearly work) as a maxim it needs the further assumption that the essence of every person (when born) is good. This can get perverted for various reasons as they grow but behaviour driven by such a perversion cannot be considered a search for happiness. So the "you" in the saying means the inherent benign nature of the average human being. Anything which makes *that* happy can't be that bad. I think there's something in this. Enough to avoid it being trite.
Russian forces have made minimal progress this week.
Ukrainian forces around Kyiv and Mykolaiv continue to frustrate Russian attempts to encircle the cities. The cities of Kharkiv, Chernihiv, Sumy and Mariupol remain encircled and subject to heavy Russian shelling.
The UN now states that the number of refugees fleeing the conflict in Ukraine has already surpassed 3.2 million. This number will continue to rise as a result of ongoing Russian aggression.
Russia has so many forces investing other cities, and protecting its supply lines, that they aren't strong enough anywhere to launch a decisive assualt - particularly in Kyiv.
They are attacking Ukraine like they have 500,000+ troops, like the Red Army did in WWII, rather than the 175k troops they really have. I suspect that's down to the Russian generals being too afraid to tell Putin the truth and give him proper military advice. Now, any withdrawal and consolidation of forces would be a humiliation, so he's stuck and probably will become increasingly enraged about it.
Can the attack on Ukraine be sold as the Great Patriotic War, as WWII was? PoW's and the wounded are, I strongly suspect, getting much better treatment from the Ukrainians than Red Army troops in a similar situation did from the Wehrmacht. And these things get back!
The polling in Russia does seem to show widespread support for the war, from Survation:
A significant majority of Russians (69%) believe the military's purpose is that of a “Liberator” which is a stated purpose of the Kremlin, 62% see Russia’s role as “peacekeeper”. Just 13% see Russia as the “aggressor". https://t.co/7d4yBARea6
Much lower support in the military age though:
It's possible, but how reliable is polling in an increasingly repressive dictatorship ? Would you honestly answer any political questions from a polling company ?
We do have to allow for scepticism/fear, but the relative numbers are interesting. As expected, young people and people who mainly get their news from social media are far more sceptical than older TV news consumers. The poll shows a fair amount of opposition/don't knows about Putin and all the other figures in the poll (and I suspect the don't knows include a fair number of scared negatives). The most significant findings are probably that they expect a fairly short war (1-2 months) and that all groups anticipate domestic problems resulting from the war and the sanctions (they only divide on whether the perceived objectives are worth the cost). Those are figures that can turn nasty for Putin if the war drags on.
The age gap is not only social media, I suspect. Partly the older generation will have had parents in WW2 whose thinking was entirely dominated by who fought whom in that conflict - talk about Ukrainian Nazis has much more resonance for them than someone aged 20, for whom it's all as abstract as World War 1. Younger people in most countries, especially oligarchies, are on average more internationalist, more liberal and more sceptical of autocratic leadership - which amid all this is still a reason to hope for better times.
It's also an internet poll. There must be some selection effect just in that.
Covid anecdote. Very high levels of Covid where I live (village in Bucks), particularly amongst the kids. My 9yo son tested positive this morning following having a croaky throat and he's now off school. He previously had asymptomatic Delta in October 2021. None of those with it as far as I'm aware have worse than a bad cold and in most cases even less.
I know also lots of people aren't bothering to register positive tests. So Covid is clearly rushing through the population but everyone seems very relaxed about it. Not yet quite at the stage as carrying on as normal though. If we lived in a world without Covid tests then my son would still be going into school as he is not really poorly.
Two out of five in my house currently have it - wife (vaxxed to the max) and youngest daughter (unvaxxed, natch). Neither have had it before, but neither iller than 'a bit grotty' - though both ill enough to stay off school/work. Other three of us seem fine (middle daughter and I had Delta back in October).
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
Indeed. Old chestnuts can enlighten or obscure, depending. Some I like, most I don't. Although some are quite interesting - eg one that really makes you stop and think is Sheryl Crow's maxim, "If it makes you happy it can't be that bad." When I first came across this I thought (as per usual) Bollocks. But as I thought about it more deeply I realized it couldn't be dismissed so airily. It's actually a very interesting assertion.
Not much of a plea in mitigation for a serial killer though.... "It made me happy..."
No, of course not. For it to work (or nearly work) as a maxim it needs the further assumption that the essence of every person (when born) is good. This can get perverted for various reasons as they grow but behaviour driven by such a perversion cannot be considered a search for happiness. So the "you" in the saying means the inherent benign nature of the average human being. Anything which makes *that* happy can't be that bad. I think there's something in this. Enough to avoid it being trite.
"the further assumption that the essence of every person (when born) is good" is quite an assumption. It also ignores what makes people stray from that. Personal circumstances mean it is a lottery. Poverty. Abuse. Bad luck. Innate evil....
My nags for today. Good luck to everybody @ping@MoonRabbit@stodge EW Patent Suprise Package 14:10 Cheltenham Galvin 15:30 Cheltenham Bob And Co 16:10 Cheltenham
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
Indeed. Old chestnuts can enlighten or obscure, depending. Some I like, most I don't. Although some are quite interesting - eg one that really makes you stop and think is Sheryl Crow's maxim, "If it makes you happy it can't be that bad." When I first came across this I thought (as per usual) Bollocks. But as I thought about it more deeply I realized it couldn't be dismissed so airily. It's actually a very interesting assertion.
Is Sheryl actually asserting it, or is she describing the mantra of a particular personality type?
Just gone and studied it again. I now think it's more the latter. She's not actually floating a notion about the essential inner goodness of the average person. She's lamenting the mindset of her boyfriend. I was wrong about this one.
Mr. Rabbit, yeah, Ferrari often make poor decisions.
The rules are more about making it easier to follow, and thus pass, cars ahead. At the moment, as per my ramble (below), Red Bull look fastest, then Ferrari. Mercedes may be third, and McLaren perhaps next but with work to do to fix their brakes.
On P&O we have had the usual moaning about the weakness of UK labour laws. And this is undoubtedly true when compared to the French, for example. But the result is by far the most dynamic employment market in Europe, far lower structual unemployment and a much higher activity rate than most. So it is pretty tough for those that lose out, particularly where they have got a pretty cosy number going, but it is generally good for us and we should not lose sight of the net benefits.
In the P&O case the failure to consult about prospective redundancy makes the dismissals unfair. P&O have sought to "compensate" employees for the lack of consultation but that only works if the employees accept it. The suggestion is that they are going to bring in much cheaper crews to man the vessels at much lower rates of pay. This means, unless they are simply closing certain routes, that there is no redundancy at all and the employees, unless bought off, will be entitled to compensation which will include loss of wages until they find alternative employment, subject to a cap. If I was the government I would be looking to throw a spanner in those works by challenging the right of these replacement employees to work in UK waters or ports.
I also suspect that P&O's problems has a lot more to do with the current cost of fuel than the cost of labour. Difficult to do much about the former, of course.
That's Tories for you, greedy grasping as ever. If it was the other way round I bet the government would soon be able to help their chums.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
Indeed. Old chestnuts can enlighten or obscure, depending. Some I like, most I don't. Although some are quite interesting - eg one that really makes you stop and think is Sheryl Crow's maxim, "If it makes you happy it can't be that bad." When I first came across this I thought (as per usual) Bollocks. But as I thought about it more deeply I realized it couldn't be dismissed so airily. It's actually a very interesting assertion.
Not much of a plea in mitigation for a serial killer though.... "It made me happy..."
No, of course not. For it to work (or nearly work) as a maxim it needs the further assumption that the essence of every person (when born) is good. This can get perverted for various reasons as they grow but behaviour driven by such a perversion cannot be considered a search for happiness. So the "you" in the saying means the inherent benign nature of the average human being. Anything which makes *that* happy can't be that bad. I think there's something in this. Enough to avoid it being trite.
"the further assumption that the essence of every person (when born) is good" is quite an assumption. It also ignores what makes people stray from that. Personal circumstances mean it is a lottery. Poverty. Abuse. Bad luck. Innate evil....
Sheryl Crow:
"If it makes you happy It can't be that bad If it makes you happy Then why the hell are you so sad?"
Maybe Skin from Skunk Anansie is the better moral philospher?
"Just because you feel good Doesn't make you right, oh no"
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
If Putin disappears it will be important not to humiliate Russia for the actions of Putin. Sanctions against oligarchs who cannot demonstrate the source of their wealth should remain IMO though. Russia could even be encouraged to improve it's democratic and constitutional structure to work toward associate status of the EU perhaps
It's really hard to think of examples where sanctions have produced a change in behaviour. Countries under sanctions generally just seem to become more insular; That's what happened in North Korea and Cuba. As an example of the adverse consequeneces, Russians have traditionally been able to use VPNs to get uncensored internet, but now the western payment networks have cut off their methods of payments so that won't work any more. Strategically they have a lot of other problems: China isn't cooperating, so the Russian economy will just become more oriented towards China, and the leverage the West has will gradually decline.
The point of sanctions here was supposed to be to support Ukraine, so if Ukraine want to cut a deal involving the lifting of sanctions from a position of relative strength everybody else should go along with it.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
If Putin disappears it will be important not to humiliate Russia for the actions of Putin. Sanctions against oligarchs who cannot demonstrate the source of their wealth should remain IMO though. Russia could even be encouraged to improve it's democratic and constitutional structure to work toward associate status of the EU perhaps
It's really hard to think of examples where sanctions have produced a change in behaviour. Countries under sanctions generally just seem to become more insular; That's what happened in North Korea and Cuba. As an example of the adverse consequeneces, Russians have traditionally been able to use VPNs to get uncensored internet, but now the western payment networks have cut off their methods of payments so that won't work any more. Strategically they have a lot of other problems: China isn't cooperating, so the Russian economy will just become more oriented towards China, and the leverage the West has will gradually decline.
The point of sanctions here was supposed to be to support Ukraine, so if Ukraine want to cut a deal involving the lifting of sanctions from a position of relative strength everybody else should go along with it.
The white supremacist regime in South Africa was pretty hammered by sanctions. I think De Klerk acknowledged this.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
If Putin disappears it will be important not to humiliate Russia for the actions of Putin. Sanctions against oligarchs who cannot demonstrate the source of their wealth should remain IMO though. Russia could even be encouraged to improve it's democratic and constitutional structure to work toward associate status of the EU perhaps
It's really hard to think of examples where sanctions have produced a change in behaviour. Countries under sanctions generally just seem to become more insular; That's what happened in North Korea and Cuba. As an example of the adverse consequeneces, Russians have traditionally been able to use VPNs to get uncensored internet, but now the western payment networks have cut off their methods of payments so that won't work any more. Strategically they have a lot of other problems: China isn't cooperating, so the Russian economy will just become more oriented towards China, and the leverage the West has will gradually decline.
The point of sanctions here was supposed to be to support Ukraine, so if Ukraine want to cut a deal involving the lifting of sanctions from a position of relative strength everybody else should go along with it.
The white supremacist regime in South Africa was pretty hammered by sanctions. I think De Klerk acknowledged this.
Some say it was the sporting and cultural isolation that had the most impact there.
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
Our Boris, it turns out, was right when he predicted “the end of tank battles”
When a humble NLAW costs $20k, yet it can destroy a tank costing $3m, the maths says: enough tanks already
On P&O we have had the usual moaning about the weakness of UK labour laws. And this is undoubtedly true when compared to the French, for example. But the result is by far the most dynamic employment market in Europe, far lower structual unemployment and a much higher activity rate than most. So it is pretty tough for those that lose out, particularly where they have got a pretty cosy number going, but it is generally good for us and we should not lose sight of the net benefits.
In the P&O case the failure to consult about prospective redundancy makes the dismissals unfair. P&O have sought to "compensate" employees for the lack of consultation but that only works if the employees accept it. The suggestion is that they are going to bring in much cheaper crews to man the vessels at much lower rates of pay. This means, unless they are simply closing certain routes, that there is no redundancy at all and the employees, unless bought off, will be entitled to compensation which will include loss of wages until they find alternative employment, subject to a cap. If I was the government I would be looking to throw a spanner in those works by challenging the right of these replacement employees to work in UK waters or ports.
I also suspect that P&O's problems has a lot more to do with the current cost of fuel than the cost of labour. Difficult to do much about the former, of course.
I think a lot of Red Wall Brexit voters will look at what has happened with P&O and think that this is exactly the sort of thing they were voting to stop and they will be wondering why the government is letting it happen.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
If Putin disappears it will be important not to humiliate Russia for the actions of Putin. Sanctions against oligarchs who cannot demonstrate the source of their wealth should remain IMO though. Russia could even be encouraged to improve it's democratic and constitutional structure to work toward associate status of the EU perhaps
It's really hard to think of examples where sanctions have produced a change in behaviour. Countries under sanctions generally just seem to become more insular; That's what happened in North Korea and Cuba. As an example of the adverse consequeneces, Russians have traditionally been able to use VPNs to get uncensored internet, but now the western payment networks have cut off their methods of payments so that won't work any more. Strategically they have a lot of other problems: China isn't cooperating, so the Russian economy will just become more oriented towards China, and the leverage the West has will gradually decline.
The point of sanctions here was supposed to be to support Ukraine, so if Ukraine want to cut a deal involving the lifting of sanctions from a position of relative strength everybody else should go along with it.
The white supremacist regime in South Africa was pretty hammered by sanctions. I think De Klerk acknowledged this.
Some say it was the sporting and cultural isolation that had the most impact there.
And the ANC believe and believed that it was their own internal efforts (politically, and as uMkhonto we Sizwe), with outside interference having a minimal effect. Now they would say that, but on the other hand they were there at the time. There is a lot of pushback against what is seen as a claim that it was liberal white men who won the day. I have been expressly warned in South Africa, more than once, against claiming to have stood shoulder to shoulder with them against the regime.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
If Putin disappears it will be important not to humiliate Russia for the actions of Putin. Sanctions against oligarchs who cannot demonstrate the source of their wealth should remain IMO though. Russia could even be encouraged to improve it's democratic and constitutional structure to work toward associate status of the EU perhaps
It's really hard to think of examples where sanctions have produced a change in behaviour. Countries under sanctions generally just seem to become more insular; That's what happened in North Korea and Cuba. As an example of the adverse consequeneces, Russians have traditionally been able to use VPNs to get uncensored internet, but now the western payment networks have cut off their methods of payments so that won't work any more. Strategically they have a lot of other problems: China isn't cooperating, so the Russian economy will just become more oriented towards China, and the leverage the West has will gradually decline.
The point of sanctions here was supposed to be to support Ukraine, so if Ukraine want to cut a deal involving the lifting of sanctions from a position of relative strength everybody else should go along with it.
Lifting the economic ones but keeping the country (for as long as Putin stays) in the freezer on sports and culture is an interesting idea. It sounds kind of petty on one level - a bit Mean Girls - but I don't know, maybe it'd be appropriate and would to some extent work in the direction you'd want, cause ordinary Russians to resent their government, or at least start wondering about it, but without inflicting the sort of major hardship on them that could fuel paranoia and grievance.
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
Our Boris, it turns out, was right when he predicted “the end of tank battles”
When a humble NLAW costs $20k, yet it can destroy a tank costing $3m, the maths says: enough tanks already
That's great if you're fighting (apparently) Russia. In a competently executed combined arms operation your infantry will rarely be getting within ATGM range of MBTs and if they do there's a good chance they'll be killed as soon as they fire the round. Hence the very poor record of ATGMs vs Israel and coalition forces in Iraq.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
Indeed. Old chestnuts can enlighten or obscure, depending. Some I like, most I don't. Although some are quite interesting - eg one that really makes you stop and think is Sheryl Crow's maxim, "If it makes you happy it can't be that bad." When I first came across this I thought (as per usual) Bollocks. But as I thought about it more deeply I realized it couldn't be dismissed so airily. It's actually a very interesting assertion.
Not much of a plea in mitigation for a serial killer though.... "It made me happy..."
No, of course not. For it to work (or nearly work) as a maxim it needs the further assumption that the essence of every person (when born) is good. This can get perverted for various reasons as they grow but behaviour driven by such a perversion cannot be considered a search for happiness. So the "you" in the saying means the inherent benign nature of the average human being. Anything which makes *that* happy can't be that bad. I think there's something in this. Enough to avoid it being trite.
"the further assumption that the essence of every person (when born) is good" is quite an assumption. It also ignores what makes people stray from that. Personal circumstances mean it is a lottery. Poverty. Abuse. Bad luck. Innate evil....
Sheryl Crow:
"If it makes you happy It can't be that bad If it makes you happy Then why the hell are you so sad?"
Maybe Skin from Skunk Anansie is the better moral philospher?
"Just because you feel good Doesn't make you right, oh no"
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
If Putin disappears it will be important not to humiliate Russia for the actions of Putin. Sanctions against oligarchs who cannot demonstrate the source of their wealth should remain IMO though. Russia could even be encouraged to improve it's democratic and constitutional structure to work toward associate status of the EU perhaps
It's really hard to think of examples where sanctions have produced a change in behaviour. Countries under sanctions generally just seem to become more insular; That's what happened in North Korea and Cuba. As an example of the adverse consequeneces, Russians have traditionally been able to use VPNs to get uncensored internet, but now the western payment networks have cut off their methods of payments so that won't work any more. Strategically they have a lot of other problems: China isn't cooperating, so the Russian economy will just become more oriented towards China, and the leverage the West has will gradually decline.
The point of sanctions here was supposed to be to support Ukraine, so if Ukraine want to cut a deal involving the lifting of sanctions from a position of relative strength everybody else should go along with it.
Lifting the economic ones but keeping the country (for as long as Putin stays) in the freezer on sports and culture is an interesting idea. It sounds kind of petty on one level - a bit Mean Girls - but I don't know, maybe it'd be appropriate and would to some extent work in the direction you'd want, cause ordinary Russians to resent their government, or at least start wondering about it, but without inflicting the sort of major hardship on them that could fuel paranoia and grievance.
I think it is at least as likely to foster a Vlad defends us against the world myth, given the insanely high levels of support he still enjoys. Cf. 30s Germany. Dolchstoßlegenden (groundwork now laid against the oligarchs) and stuff.
The point of sanctions here was supposed to be to support Ukraine, so if Ukraine want to cut a deal involving the lifting of sanctions from a position of relative strength everybody else should go along with it.
If the deal involves Ukraine making concessions to Russia, then you couldn't really say that it was concluded from a position of relative strength.
At least everyone seems to have moved on somewhat from impending armageddon. Weather? Cracking spring day here, shame if it was spoiled by a second sunrise in the west.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
If Putin disappears it will be important not to humiliate Russia for the actions of Putin. Sanctions against oligarchs who cannot demonstrate the source of their wealth should remain IMO though. Russia could even be encouraged to improve it's democratic and constitutional structure to work toward associate status of the EU perhaps
It's really hard to think of examples where sanctions have produced a change in behaviour. Countries under sanctions generally just seem to become more insular; That's what happened in North Korea and Cuba. As an example of the adverse consequeneces, Russians have traditionally been able to use VPNs to get uncensored internet, but now the western payment networks have cut off their methods of payments so that won't work any more. Strategically they have a lot of other problems: China isn't cooperating, so the Russian economy will just become more oriented towards China, and the leverage the West has will gradually decline.
The point of sanctions here was supposed to be to support Ukraine, so if Ukraine want to cut a deal involving the lifting of sanctions from a position of relative strength everybody else should go along with it.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
Indeed. Old chestnuts can enlighten or obscure, depending. Some I like, most I don't. Although some are quite interesting - eg one that really makes you stop and think is Sheryl Crow's maxim, "If it makes you happy it can't be that bad." When I first came across this I thought (as per usual) Bollocks. But as I thought about it more deeply I realized it couldn't be dismissed so airily. It's actually a very interesting assertion.
Not much of a plea in mitigation for a serial killer though.... "It made me happy..."
No, of course not. For it to work (or nearly work) as a maxim it needs the further assumption that the essence of every person (when born) is good. This can get perverted for various reasons as they grow but behaviour driven by such a perversion cannot be considered a search for happiness. So the "you" in the saying means the inherent benign nature of the average human being. Anything which makes *that* happy can't be that bad. I think there's something in this. Enough to avoid it being trite.
"the further assumption that the essence of every person (when born) is good" is quite an assumption. It also ignores what makes people stray from that. Personal circumstances mean it is a lottery. Poverty. Abuse. Bad luck. Innate evil....
Sheryl Crow:
"If it makes you happy It can't be that bad If it makes you happy Then why the hell are you so sad?"
Maybe Skin from Skunk Anansie is the better moral philospher?
"Just because you feel good Doesn't make you right, oh no"
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
There is a real concern, as the nuclear weapons Putin is developing are first strike weapons. The nuclear torpedoes carrying multi megaton warheads could take out half of the US coastal cities, without any real warning.
The temptation for someone as far gone as Putin to use such weapons to destroy his primary adversary is a very dangerous one.
Except that would also obviously lead the US to send nuclear weapons to strike the main Russian cities in response.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
Hannah Arendt would disagree, I can remember writing an essay about that as an undergraduate.
Yeah it's a snazzy phrase but it's utter bollocks.
That's true of most such phrases to a greater or lesser degree. I enjoy trying to pick apart the most unobjectionable and seemingly correct ones with ever more creative interpretation.
Indeed. Old chestnuts can enlighten or obscure, depending. Some I like, most I don't. Although some are quite interesting - eg one that really makes you stop and think is Sheryl Crow's maxim, "If it makes you happy it can't be that bad." When I first came across this I thought (as per usual) Bollocks. But as I thought about it more deeply I realized it couldn't be dismissed so airily. It's actually a very interesting assertion.
Not much of a plea in mitigation for a serial killer though.... "It made me happy..."
No, of course not. For it to work (or nearly work) as a maxim it needs the further assumption that the essence of every person (when born) is good. This can get perverted for various reasons as they grow but behaviour driven by such a perversion cannot be considered a search for happiness. So the "you" in the saying means the inherent benign nature of the average human being. Anything which makes *that* happy can't be that bad. I think there's something in this. Enough to avoid it being trite.
"the further assumption that the essence of every person (when born) is good" is quite an assumption. It also ignores what makes people stray from that. Personal circumstances mean it is a lottery. Poverty. Abuse. Bad luck. Innate evil....
I don't think I believe in innate evil. But the other 3, yes. And we could add to the list. But this is exactly what I meant about it being an interesting saying. It really gets you thinking. Lots of old sayings don't manage to do that because they're obviously just flat out wrong.
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
Our Boris, it turns out, was right when he predicted “the end of tank battles”
When a humble NLAW costs $20k, yet it can destroy a tank costing $3m, the maths says: enough tanks already
Modern tanks (eg the Israeli's) have active defensive systems to defeat them, though. Their problem is not so much single projectiles as multiple ones.
max seddon @maxseddon · 3h Putin has nominated Elvira Nabiullina – a hugely respected technocrat rumored to be seeking a way out this year before the war with Ukraine began – for a third term as Russia's central bank governor.
If I were a diplomat and this is the quality of people assigned to protect me, I think I'd prefer to take my chances, frankly.
There are surely several aspects to this:
*) Vetting. We need to ensure people in positions of power and influence over others - police, doctors, teachers - are vetted when they join the job. But no vetting will ever catch bad people who have yet to commit any crimes. And these jobs are appealing to many such people, because they give them power over the public.
*) Procedures. This leads on to procedures for if accusations are made. These need to be robust, well-defined, speedy and fair to both complainant and complainee. IMV this is where the Met are failing most - I don't know about the case mentioned above, but the Sarah Everard case is one where it was fairly obvious he was at least slightly dodgy - his colleagues called him 'rapist', ffs. There appear to be far too many cases where the police close ranks to protect individuals. This needs to stop.
From what I've heard teaching does all of this reasonably well - partly thanks to strong unions who will help the teachers.
Good morning. Bright sunny day and what nowadays constitutes a busy day for me ahead. Two u3a Group meetings, both of which I have to drive to.
Are the front pages, and the TV News programmes just a teeny bit more positive about the Ukraine situation?
I'd like to be feeling positive about how Ukraine is going but I'm not really.
The "talks" feel artificial to me, mainly for show, an addition to the fighting not a potential alternative to it.
I think there's a lot of war to go yet on this.
War is just diplomacy by other means. Talks to often, maybe even usually, take place before the guns fall silent.
John Simpson has a peice on BBC website about what the Turkish understand could be basis of a deal, based on talking directly to Putin. Seems do-able if Ukr swallow a lot of bile and accept loss of territory. But how long would the deal last?
It's an interesting article. The one question not addressed is Western sanctions - I assume Putin would want those removed, not clear if that is likely to happen any time soon.
One of the things that we'll need to look out for however this ends, is how quickly the forces of "business as usual" attempt to get things "back to normal". Such as relaxation of sanctions (just imagine the pent-up demand for Gucci shoes) and resiling from upping military spend. Those on the front-line (Baltics, Poland) may take a different view from the rearguard.
Agreed - I’m sure LVMH etc will be desperate for business as usual but it all depends on how it ends.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
If Putin disappears it will be important not to humiliate Russia for the actions of Putin. Sanctions against oligarchs who cannot demonstrate the source of their wealth should remain IMO though. Russia could even be encouraged to improve it's democratic and constitutional structure to work toward associate status of the EU perhaps
It's really hard to think of examples where sanctions have produced a change in behaviour. Countries under sanctions generally just seem to become more insular; That's what happened in North Korea and Cuba. As an example of the adverse consequeneces, Russians have traditionally been able to use VPNs to get uncensored internet, but now the western payment networks have cut off their methods of payments so that won't work any more. Strategically they have a lot of other problems: China isn't cooperating, so the Russian economy will just become more oriented towards China, and the leverage the West has will gradually decline.
The point of sanctions here was supposed to be to support Ukraine, so if Ukraine want to cut a deal involving the lifting of sanctions from a position of relative strength everybody else should go along with it.
Lifting the economic ones but keeping the country (for as long as Putin stays) in the freezer on sports and culture is an interesting idea. It sounds kind of petty on one level - a bit Mean Girls - but I don't know, maybe it'd be appropriate and would to some extent work in the direction you'd want, cause ordinary Russians to resent their government, or at least start wondering about it, but without inflicting the sort of major hardship on them that could fuel paranoia and grievance.
Most sporting bodies arent in the control of "the West" and won't go with ongoing exclusion once the war has ended. Russian sport is also spread over so many different sports there will be some sports who will quickly take them back. That is very different to South Africa where the ruling classes were only interested in cricket and rugby.
NPXMP has suggested in the last couple of days that Ukraine is favoured by the West purely because it has a superior media operation to Russia,?
I don't think NP ever said it but it is undoubtedly at least partially true. Of course people are going to row in behind the faction with the more fierce meme game. That's the power of social media. #tractors #lol
Good/evil and right/wrong are pre-2010 dichotomies that no longer apply.
Read the accounts coming out of Mariupol. It’s not a fucking meme game; it’s a medieval siege with shells and bombs.
I think @Dura_Ace is a little embarrassed by how wrongly he's called the whole conflict, and is throwing out random shit.
No one else seems remotely embarrassed by how wrongly they’ve called the whole conflict to the point of blithely finding new wrong ways to call it, seems a bit unfair to pick on him.
The RUSI, our professional military think tank, which has about as much Information as anyone, was completely taken by surprise by the course of the war. None of us had any real clue as to how it would turn out. And we still don't.
Yes - I can't think of anyone who predicted that if Russia went Full Tonto, they would end up bogged down, rather than sweeping to victory.
Or was that what the Defense Sec. was saying when he joked about the Crimean War?
Our Boris, it turns out, was right when he predicted “the end of tank battles”
When a humble NLAW costs $20k, yet it can destroy a tank costing $3m, the maths says: enough tanks already
Modern tanks (eg the Israeli's) have active defensive systems to defeat them, though. Their problem is not so much single projectiles as multiple ones.
And many modern projectiles (I think the Javelin is like this) have two charges: one to disrupt/activate the active systems, and the second, going off a fraction of a second later, to actually defeat the armour.
On P&O we have had the usual moaning about the weakness of UK labour laws. And this is undoubtedly true when compared to the French, for example. But the result is by far the most dynamic employment market in Europe, far lower structual unemployment and a much higher activity rate than most. So it is pretty tough for those that lose out, particularly where they have got a pretty cosy number going, but it is generally good for us and we should not lose sight of the net benefits.
In the P&O case the failure to consult about prospective redundancy makes the dismissals unfair. P&O have sought to "compensate" employees for the lack of consultation but that only works if the employees accept it. The suggestion is that they are going to bring in much cheaper crews to man the vessels at much lower rates of pay. This means, unless they are simply closing certain routes, that there is no redundancy at all and the employees, unless bought off, will be entitled to compensation which will include loss of wages until they find alternative employment, subject to a cap. If I was the government I would be looking to throw a spanner in those works by challenging the right of these replacement employees to work in UK waters or ports.
I also suspect that P&O's problems has a lot more to do with the current cost of fuel than the cost of labour. Difficult to do much about the former, of course.
The exec delivering the news on the zoom call described it to the workers as a redundancy. But redundancy means your job itself is no longer needed (I thought) - which is not the case if you're promptly replaced by somebody else on a lower wage. So although I assume this is legal (given they'll have surely checked) I'm surprised it is.
The Ukrainian defence ministry says in its daily update on Facebook that an estimated 14,200 Russian soldiers have been killed since the conflict began.
US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.
Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:
May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.
Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.
On P&O we have had the usual moaning about the weakness of UK labour laws. And this is undoubtedly true when compared to the French, for example. But the result is by far the most dynamic employment market in Europe, far lower structual unemployment and a much higher activity rate than most. So it is pretty tough for those that lose out, particularly where they have got a pretty cosy number going, but it is generally good for us and we should not lose sight of the net benefits.
In the P&O case the failure to consult about prospective redundancy makes the dismissals unfair. P&O have sought to "compensate" employees for the lack of consultation but that only works if the employees accept it. The suggestion is that they are going to bring in much cheaper crews to man the vessels at much lower rates of pay. This means, unless they are simply closing certain routes, that there is no redundancy at all and the employees, unless bought off, will be entitled to compensation which will include loss of wages until they find alternative employment, subject to a cap. If I was the government I would be looking to throw a spanner in those works by challenging the right of these replacement employees to work in UK waters or ports.
I also suspect that P&O's problems has a lot more to do with the current cost of fuel than the cost of labour. Difficult to do much about the former, of course.
I think a lot of Red Wall Brexit voters will look at what has happened with P&O and think that this is exactly the sort of thing they were voting to stop and they will be wondering why the government is letting it happen.
Was funny. In another place I saw several posters getting increasingly irate at the idea that the P&O scandal had anything to do with Brexit. It doesn't of course, but the point being made is exactly what you posted - wasn't Brexit supposed to stop companies replacing Brits with cheap eastern Europeans and give people better job security?
This is the mega clash between the possible Brexits. The Singapore-on-Thames Brexiteer will be delighted with what has happened, a flexible labour market providing a solution to keep the business afloat and the owners rich. The Workers Collectivist Brexiteer is aghast as instead of stopping the forrin taking our jobs for less pay our sovvrinty has instead been utterly complicit.
There is no way to reconcile two utterly conflicting goals for Brexit. We can't have both labour flexibility for more profits and British Jobs for British Workers. Expect more scandals.
On P&O we have had the usual moaning about the weakness of UK labour laws. And this is undoubtedly true when compared to the French, for example. But the result is by far the most dynamic employment market in Europe, far lower structual unemployment and a much higher activity rate than most. So it is pretty tough for those that lose out, particularly where they have got a pretty cosy number going, but it is generally good for us and we should not lose sight of the net benefits.
In the P&O case the failure to consult about prospective redundancy makes the dismissals unfair. P&O have sought to "compensate" employees for the lack of consultation but that only works if the employees accept it. The suggestion is that they are going to bring in much cheaper crews to man the vessels at much lower rates of pay. This means, unless they are simply closing certain routes, that there is no redundancy at all and the employees, unless bought off, will be entitled to compensation which will include loss of wages until they find alternative employment, subject to a cap. If I was the government I would be looking to throw a spanner in those works by challenging the right of these replacement employees to work in UK waters or ports.
I also suspect that P&O's problems has a lot more to do with the current cost of fuel than the cost of labour. Difficult to do much about the former, of course.
I think a lot of Red Wall Brexit voters will look at what has happened with P&O and think that this is exactly the sort of thing they were voting to stop and they will be wondering why the government is letting it happen.
Yes, they will and it will help Labour. The wider question however is tricky. Unless the criminal law is involved (and usually it isn't) then for all the thunderous noises from unions and MPs legally these are civil matters. And, with very rare exceptions, in employment/contractual relationships as long as you are prepared to pay the price in damages/compensation AND take the adverse publicity you will get your way, though at a price.
It is vanishingly unlikely that any court will compel reinstatement.
P+O have clearly decided to take the commercial hit. Just like Putin. I hope they both fail.
But most of the huffing and puffing can be dismissed. Quantum will be the question.
Comments
Oddly Biden by accident or design may have played a blinder on this. I can now probably add this to my wrong calls.
Read the whole thread.
https://twitter.com/rshereme/status/1504579756221558792
Yesterday, at our own risk, we left Mariupol under gunfire. We stayed overnight in a field in a gray zone. It was freezing outside, thank God we are alive. We are alive to scream that everyone who stayed in Mariupol needs help!...
Britain’s media regulator, Ofcom, has revoked Russian-backed television channel RT’s licence to broadcast in the UK with immediate effect."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2022/mar/18/russia-ukraine-war-latest-news-biden-to-warn-xi-against-backing-putin-as-russian-military-offensives-falter-live 08:21
I can see it still playing out that way.
F1: practice starts at midday.
If Putin got removed, accidentally fell out of a window then depending on who took over relaxation of sanctions should by tied to reduction of Nukes by Russia apart from withdrawal from Ukraine and a DMZ near the border. I know it’s asking for the moon on a stick but it’s a one time opportunity to try and get Russia defanged whilst we have most leverage.
I think if Putin was still there and withdrew from Ukraine then I could see certain sanctions such as flights and western companies closing being lifted as need to show it wasn’t the ordinary Russians we were trying to hurt.
But keep major sanctions on Russian state linked people and companies until they are ready to talk sensibly about de-escalation and hostile acts - for a start handing over the Salisbury poisoners - and make it clear any sanctions will be snapped back if any back-sliding.
Is that a realistic viewpoint?
The age gap is not only social media, I suspect. Partly the older generation will have had parents in WW2 whose thinking was entirely dominated by who fought whom in that conflict - talk about Ukrainian Nazis has much more resonance for them than someone aged 20, for whom it's all as abstract as World War 1. Younger people in most countries, especially oligarchies, are on average more internationalist, more liberal and more sceptical of autocratic leadership - which amid all this is still a reason to hope for better times.
I’ll stick to horse betting and shopping.
I think the Poles were planning on retreating to the 'Romanian bridgehead' but the Soviet invasion ended that possibility.
Host families address the usual fears of cost to the taxpayer and ghettoised communities.
By Tom Harwood"
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2022/03/extending-the-ukrainian-refugee-scheme-to-afghans-would-be-a-tory-win
The temptation for someone as far gone as Putin to use such weapons to destroy his primary adversary is a very dangerous one.
The whole ethos of the trust - maybe called the “Russian Restorative Fund” would be to very publicly tell the Russian people that these assets were stolen and when they were cold and hungry these kleptocrats were living the high life on their pain. The funds would then be spent on things for ordinary Russians - schools, nurseries, hospitals with safety windows….
If the Russian people see the scale of the theft and how they were gaslighted then there is more hope of getting any reformist govt there to stick as the people see real tangible benefits of their new world and don’t just sink into the mindset of “the new lot are just like the old lot so we’ll just carry on as before grumbling quietly in our crappy lives”.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/paulmcleod/daylight-saving-time-senate?ref=bftwbuzzfeed&utm_source=dynamic&utm_campaign=bftwbuzzfeed
Glancing at the market (seeing as you've asked), Leclerc/Sainz at 5.5 and 7.5 respectively each way for the win (only top 2 with Ladbrokes, alas) may appeal.
With betfair, they're 2.02 and 2.6 for podium finishes, which may also prove tempting.
I'd probably only use free bets or tiny stakes at this stage. We still don't know a lot of things about how the teams' pace and new rules will play out. Also critical is how Ricciardo and Hulkenberg fare having very little running, especially the latter, and if McLaren can fix their brake problems.
Emine Dzheppar
@EmineDzheppar
Ukraine government official
The #Pentagon says that #Ukrainian army has set a record for the effectiveness of the use of portable anti-tank systems #Javelin.
Out of 112 shots, 100 hit the target.
We are proud of our army and Ukrainian defenders!
Glory to the Heroes! 🇺🇦
https://twitter.com/EmineDzheppar/status/1504753485245566977
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/03/17/ukraine-is-doubling-its-army-while-russia-scrapes-the-barrel-for-reinforcements/
I wonder how long the SNP/Greens will be able to maintain their policy of closing down oil and gas production and forbidding new nuclear?
Scottish Independence Voting Intention:
Yes: 44% (-1)
No: 49% (+3)
via
@SavantaComRes
, 10-16 Mar
(Changes with 28 Feb)
Seems to me Ferrari problem in recent years they have let good drivers down with some poor decisions on race day.
These new rules were designed to create more level playing field? This could backfire after all the teams innovating?
*Betting Post 🐎 Day 4
I’ve posted 5 wins from 12 tips, 4 more chances to try and get 1 more. I havn’t kept tabs on minor placing as my bets have been win bets, but I don’t think I’ve had many minor placings from these tips - certainly not yesterday, very difficult day.
What’s going to guide me today? My note book is going to guide me today. So many names and the notes next to them feature on the cards today. Many notebook head to heads. In fact every single tip today an entry in my notebook. However, the obvious danger is what impressed me winning a grade 2 race is now in classier field in grade 1 race. But my notebook has served me well all week.
13:30 Porticello
14:10 Tritonic
14:50 Ballygrifincottage
I am excited about this one, just 3rd start under rules and here we are at Cheltenham. Serial winner at point to point, I watched rules debut at Cheltenham and it very nearly won grade 2 ahead of Blazing Khal and Gelino Bello, before resisting fierce challenge to win second race. I know Topping disagrees with me, but I still have this suspicion stables hide superstars in point to point whilst developing them.
15:30 A Plus Tard
Form almost means nothing if the season was about this race, everything else merely a timely leg stretch like a pre season football match.
If you have have been waiting for me to tip some longer odds, there they are, and I havn’t finished. I don’t put everything in my littlebook, only what catches me as noteworthy. There has to be a reason Aye Right is there? So as a longshot bonus tip, Aye Right as each way bet 15:30.
Nb. Hasn’t Francesca been brilliant all week and looked gorgeous all week despite so pregnant!
Whatever you are on today, best of luck. I mean that even if you are betting against me, it’s not nice seeing horses fall over.
What I am unlikely to do this Saturday is betting or tip posting, not just because of this weeks feast has to extent satisfied appetite, but we are travelling down this evening as planned and lucky with weather for some nights away at the GFs parents, to help them with some out door work - and go in pub and walks around the countryside, so I won’t be online very much after the racing.
Have a great weekend. 😘
I can imagine a lot of the 1% in the West getting extremely nervous if it does.
Bloody rabbitholes..
I know also lots of people aren't bothering to register positive tests. So Covid is clearly rushing through the population but everyone seems very relaxed about it. Not yet quite at the stage as carrying on as normal though. If we lived in a world without Covid tests then my son would still be going into school as he is not really poorly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave
I vaguely recall the 1987 stock market crash was supposed to be the start of the next wave.
https://www.gov.uk/order-coronavirus-rapid-lateral-flow-tests
Coming up as out of stock for me this morning
The rules are more about making it easier to follow, and thus pass, cars ahead. At the moment, as per my ramble (below), Red Bull look fastest, then Ferrari. Mercedes may be third, and McLaren perhaps next but with work to do to fix their brakes.
https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2022/03/2022-pre-season-testing-thoughts.html
There must be some selection effect just in that.
EW Patent
Suprise Package 14:10 Cheltenham
Galvin 15:30 Cheltenham
Bob And Co 16:10 Cheltenham
EW Single
Bob And Co 16:10 Cheltenham
"If it makes you happy
It can't be that bad
If it makes you happy
Then why the hell are you so sad?"
Maybe Skin from Skunk Anansie is the better moral philospher?
"Just because you feel good
Doesn't make you right, oh no"
Big regulation changes can alter things a fair bit. We'll see how Mercedes actually stack up.
Also, Hulkenberg's standing in for Vettel, who has the plague.
The point of sanctions here was supposed to be to support Ukraine, so if Ukraine want to cut a deal involving the lifting of sanctions from a position of relative strength everybody else should go along with it.
Our Boris, it turns out, was right when he predicted “the end of tank battles”
When a humble NLAW costs $20k, yet it can destroy a tank costing $3m, the maths says: enough tanks already
Or maybe having watched Indiana Jones, that’s Bad Al’s plan to survive first strike.
*Ydoethur will put me right Cleopatra never arrived in a carpet. And Greek Dawn for Ancient Evenings was the name of her political faction.
Do anything you wanna do...
Cracking spring day here, shame if it was spoiled by a second sunrise in the west.
https://news.sky.com/story/metropolitan-police-officer-david-carrick-charged-with-12-more-sexual-offences-12568547
If I were a diplomat and this is the quality of people assigned to protect me, I think I'd prefer to take my chances, frankly.
Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the Law
“Women advised to dress up as oligarch’s mansions to ensure police protection”.
@maxseddon
·
3h
Putin has nominated Elvira Nabiullina – a hugely respected technocrat rumored to be seeking a way out this year before the war with Ukraine began – for a third term as Russia's central bank governor.
*) Vetting. We need to ensure people in positions of power and influence over others - police, doctors, teachers - are vetted when they join the job. But no vetting will ever catch bad people who have yet to commit any crimes. And these jobs are appealing to many such people, because they give them power over the public.
*) Procedures. This leads on to procedures for if accusations are made. These need to be robust, well-defined, speedy and fair to both complainant and complainee. IMV this is where the Met are failing most - I don't know about the case mentioned above, but the Sarah Everard case is one where it was fairly obvious he was at least slightly dodgy - his colleagues called him 'rapist', ffs. There appear to be far too many cases where the police close ranks to protect individuals. This needs to stop.
From what I've heard teaching does all of this reasonably well - partly thanks to strong unions who will help the teachers.
stabbed in the back by the citizens of nowhere
US officials said on Thursday the number of Russian casualties could well be over 7,000, with up to 14,000 injured.
Among other damage inflicted on Russian armaments and vehicles, Ukraine claims its forces have also taken down:
450 tanks
93 aircraft
112 helicopters
and disabled 43 anti-aircraft systems.
May be rubbish. But Russia isn't giving us their figures to compare against. No update on their near 500 killed issued 2 weeks ago. You can perhaps still infer from their silence they are quite horrible.
Compare with D-Day: Omaha beach, where 2,000 U.S. troops were killed, wounded or went missing; at Sword Beach and Gold Beach, where 2,000 British troops were killed, wounded or went missing; and at Juno beach, where 340 Canadian soldiers were killed and another 574 wounded.
This is the mega clash between the possible Brexits. The Singapore-on-Thames Brexiteer will be delighted with what has happened, a flexible labour market providing a solution to keep the business afloat and the owners rich. The Workers Collectivist Brexiteer is aghast as instead of stopping the forrin taking our jobs for less pay our sovvrinty has instead been utterly complicit.
There is no way to reconcile two utterly conflicting goals for Brexit. We can't have both labour flexibility for more profits and British Jobs for British Workers. Expect more scandals.
It is vanishingly unlikely that any court will compel reinstatement.
P+O have clearly decided to take the commercial hit. Just like Putin. I hope they both fail.
But most of the huffing and puffing can be dismissed. Quantum will be the question.