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Johnson being CON leader at next election – a good bet? – politicalbetting.com

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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,677

    Even on those usage numbers I would argue the tube needs a full service, and I’d argue that those numbers won’t remain at that level anyway.

    You sound like those Treasury bods you like to complain about who believe the answer is to slide the shit out of anything that supports economic growth in the UK.
    Running a 100% service on ~70% usage means a 40% price rise for people who use it and a starting vicious circle of people deciding it's too expensive and not using it resulting in bigger price rises.

    There's no economic upside to the additional capacity and drivers can be trained and hired pretty rapidly should the need arise for them. It's not as though there's a fixed supply. What I'm suggesting is we cut fixed costs to free up money to invest in the network. It's precisely the opposite of treasury thinking which would rather a higher current fixed cost at the expense of investment.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,164

    Is Putin losing?

    I did notice that even pro-Russian sources for what's going on on the ground were talking about Russia pulling back to defend against a Ukrainian counterattack.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254

    I had thought Ramaphosa one of the good guys. Seems he is infected with the same brain-depleting virus as Chris Williamson.

    Even Iran and China don’t believe this shit.
    Mind you both those countries are probably wondering just how much once Russian territory Putin wants back.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063

    I had thought Ramaphosa one of the good guys. Seems he is infected with the same brain-depleting virus as Chris Williamson.

    Even Iran and China don’t believe this shit.
    The invasion is an act of such startlingly disproportionate violence even if every concern raised by Russia and Russia's catamites were true, which they aren't, that it has provoked some very unusual clarity, coherence and rapidity among the West, and even caused most of those opposed to the West to at least play it cool. That South Africa's leaders cannot even go that far suggests very bad things.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Andy_JS said:

    Spectator — Francis Fukuyama article on why he believes Russia could be heading for outright defeat.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk

    Mmm.

    I hate aftertiming, but PB didn't exist when his The End of History thesis first got publicity (1999?) so you will just have to take my word for it that I identified it at the time as the thesis of a complete and utter wanker. And here we are in 2022...
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    Cookie said:

    Well, yes, but... the downside of collective bargaining is that management can also treat staff collectively. This incident is a result of collective bargaining.
    No it's not. It's immoral foreign owners riding a coach and horses through our now inadequate employment rights.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Hard Brexiter? Oh no. What were you thinking?
    Principled sovereignty point - though I started out assuming and wanting EFTA/EEA as a first step until it became clear that wasn’t possible. I believe in open borders and more or less unlimited immigration, so I’ve never felt “part” of most of those who share the objective.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    edited March 2022

    I did notice that even pro-Russian sources for what's going on on the ground were talking about Russia pulling back to defend against a Ukrainian counterattack.
    Very noticeable that, at best (for Russia) the North and North-East are stalled and not gaining anything, and in the South the front is now nearer Kherson than Mykolaiv. Now all the focus is on the South-East. The collapse of Mariupol would free up a lot of troops, and the potential encirclement of the Ukrainian Donbas forces from the North is slowly advancing despite heavy losses (which may stall it).
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    IshmaelZ said:

    You are wrong. What makes you think anybody "owns" a ferry route?
    Syntactical issue there my friend. P+O are owned, not the ferry routes.
    Although it is difficult for any NI to Scotland start up when the only port is owned by P+O too.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Andy_JS said:

    Spectator — Francis Fukuyama article on why he believes Russia could be heading for outright defeat.

    https://www.spectator.co.uk

    I hope he's right. He's very invested in Ukraine though and I'm sure wants to be seen to be supporting them as much as possible.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    MaxPB said:

    Running a 100% service on ~70% usage means a 40% price rise for people who use it and a starting vicious circle of people deciding it's too expensive and not using it resulting in bigger price rises.

    There's no economic upside to the additional capacity and drivers can be trained and hired pretty rapidly should the need arise for them. It's not as though there's a fixed supply. What I'm suggesting is we cut fixed costs to free up money to invest in the network. It's precisely the opposite of treasury thinking which would rather a higher current fixed cost at the expense of investment.
    Decent response, but in my view the fixed cost is pretty fixed because if you really want to fuck the tube you reduce service levels.

    I’m not going to pretend I know the Tube finances inside out, but I doubt you do either. I’m not convinced the trade off you talk about is there.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Cookie said:

    My ex-girlfriend's dad worked in the printing industry. Loathed the unions, who had put him on the dole at least twice by making life so uncomfortable for the company owners that they decided it just wasn't worth the hassle and closed the company down.
    It was enforced membership of NATSOPA which turned Norman Tebbit to the Dark Side.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,325
    IshmaelZ said:

    Mmm.

    I hate aftertiming, but PB didn't exist when his The End of History thesis first got publicity (1999?) so you will just have to take my word for it that I identified it at the time as the thesis of a complete and utter wanker. And here we are in 2022...
    Yes, it was the equivalent of the late 19th century physicists who thought they’d sorted all of physics, apart from a few small tidying up issues, just before quantum theory exploded everything.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    I did notice that even pro-Russian sources for what's going on on the ground were talking about Russia pulling back to defend against a Ukrainian counterattack.
    It’s possible that Putin’s new strategy is:

    1. Move Russia along the authoritarian to totalitarian spectrum

    2. Scare the shit out of his own population.

    Thereby cementing his own power and allowing a retreat from Ukraine.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976
    QT: gonnae be a lot unbuttered Ukranian parsnips.

    Christ, Braverman actually did the GSTQ NLAW wank.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    IshmaelZ said:

    It was enforced membership of NATSOPA which turned Norman Tebbit to the Dark Side.
    Yes. But this is the 2020's. Not the 1970's.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448
    edited March 2022

    In France it is much harder to fire workers. To make up for this, there are much larger capital allowances for machinery - so productivity is relatively high.

    However, companies move work out of France when they can. In a large part, the Yellow Jacket protests are about this.

    You may of noticed that the war in Ukraine is disrupting parts and materials for a number of industries. Those factories were created, as part of the push too move industry to cheaper and cheaper places - Eastern Europe in general has been "mined out" of cheap labour, to a great extent (though movement there is still happening).

    Simply moving industry to the super cheap locations (undeveloped bits of Africa, say) doesn't actually get the big savings - you need a society with a semblance of modernity, rule of law and infrastructure to achieve productivity.
    Except manufacturing is no longer reliant on cheap labour (though service industries are) which is why many developed countries have strong manufacturing economies with well paid workers.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    Syntactical issue there my friend. P+O are owned, not the ferry routes.
    Although it is difficult for any NI to Scotland start up when the only port is owned by P+O too.
    OK, but "monopolistic" makes the same point. There's no monopoly, except in the de facto sense of coca cola having a monopoly on brown fizzy drinks
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    dixiedean said:

    Yes. But this is the 2020's. Not the 1970's.
    Alas
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,476

    Is Putin losing?



    I think it is quite clear that Putin thought he was going to get to Kyiv in a day or 2, relieve the heroic paratroopers holding the airports, tea, medals and start arresting anyone on The Lists.

    He is now in an attritional war with fluid front lines, with a well supplied opponent who is playing clever and facing a hostile population. The economy is collapsing around him, and he has found the boyars are "unreliable".

    The question is whether he can survive long enough to grind down enough of Ukraine to celebrate or whether the Russian economy will implode first.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Cookie said:

    On another note, isn't it nice to be discussing economics and employment? Rather than Brexit, culture wars, covid or war. Younger readers may be unaware, but up until the first decade of this century this is what politics was always like.

    Kind of miss the good old days when people used to say “they’re all the same”.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 14,639
    In other news, this opportunity to blame the French will, I'm sure, warm a few cockles: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/17/france-exported-bombs-aircraft-russia-2014-eu-arms-embargo/
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,677

    Decent response, but in my view the fixed cost is pretty fixed because if you really want to fuck the tube you reduce service levels.

    I’m not going to pretend I know the Tube finances inside out, but I doubt you do either. I’m not convinced the trade off you talk about is there.
    No, I'm not an expert just going by the media reports that future network investment is being pushed further out into the future but no cuts to fixed costs are being considered by the mayor outside of a small bit of management consolidation. He cut the night tube, but we still get 40 TPH on the Victoria line all day, and loads of them are just empty outside of peak hours on weekdays because the demand isn't there. Seems a bit mad to me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    edited March 2022

    It’s possible that Putin’s new strategy is:

    1. Move Russia along the authoritarian to totalitarian spectrum

    2. Scare the shit out of his own population.

    Thereby cementing his own power and allowing a retreat from Ukraine.
    Making his people poorer but more terrified, rather than getting richer and still maintaining an iron grip. Who knew he'd shoot for the Belarus model rather than the China model?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Yes, it was the equivalent of the late 19th century physicists who thought they’d sorted all of physics, apart from a few small tidying up issues, just before quantum theory exploded everything.
    Exactly

    And they can't say they weren't warned - Thomas Young, double slit, 1801...
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    Cookie said:

    In other news, this opportunity to blame the French will, I'm sure, warm a few cockles: https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/17/france-exported-bombs-aircraft-russia-2014-eu-arms-embargo/

    I’ve never felt I needed evidence in order to blame the French.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,821
    IshmaelZ said:

    OK, but "monopolistic" makes the same point. There's no monopoly, except in the de facto sense of coca cola having a monopoly on brown fizzy drinks
    Yeah. In the sense that a few sturdy oarsmen could conceivably compete. It is a monopoly. Owned by an autocracy which supports Putin.
    If you're happy with that because Unions then fine.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976
    IshmaelZ said:

    Mmm.

    I hate aftertiming, but PB didn't exist when his The End of History thesis first got publicity (1999?) so you will just have to take my word for it that I identified it at the time as the thesis of a complete and utter wanker. And here we are in 2022...
    S’okay, I can hear your cry of rage echoing down the decades..

    Bit earlier,1992. I can remember reading a review of it in the Saturday Guardian in the Blue Parrot cafe in Stockbridge, seemed an exciting concept at the time.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Utter tosh.
    Coherently argued rebuttal. Well done.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,063
    edited March 2022
    One hopes this is true, even if at the present moment they'd clearly take anyone who is willing to fight. From BBC

    For weeks the southern port city of Mariupol has resisted a Russian onslaught, defended by a nationalist battalion of some 800 volunteers.

    The Azov battalion was formed to resist Russian-backed separatists who seized areas of eastern Ukraine in 2014. It takes its name from the internal Sea of Azov on which Mariupol lies.

    To Ukrainians these defenders are heroes, holding out against Russia's far more numerous invaders and losing their lives in a bombardment that has killed over 2,000 of Mariupol's civilians and damaged up to 90% of its buildings.

    To Russia they are neo-Nazis and their origins lie in a neo-Nazi group called Patriot of Ukraine. They wear the pagan Wolfsangel insignia, which was used by notorious Nazi SS units and is favoured by neo-Nazis. But the battalion says it represents merely the first letters of the slogan National Idea.

    The Azov volunteers' original extremist leaders are now gone and the battalion is part of Ukraine's National Guard, under the government's formal oversight and command, say local officials.

    Ukraine has cracked down on neo-Nazis in recent years and there are no nationalist parties in parliament.

    The battalion currently attracts a broad mix of nationalists, ultranationalists and other young men united by a loathing for Russia. Half of them come from the east and many are Russian-speaking.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254

    I think it is quite clear that Putin thought he was going to get to Kyiv in a day or 2, relieve the heroic paratroopers holding the airports, tea, medals and start arresting anyone on The Lists.
    It might even had worked if the US intelligence community had not already told Ukraine who was coming, when they were coming, and where they were going to attack. Ukraine basically watched the Russians land and then shelled them, and then went in on foot to mop up the survivors. So apart from Ukraine knowing their every move it was not a bad plan.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,476
    Foxy said:

    Except manufacturing is no longer reliant on cheap labour (though service industries are) which is why many developed counties have strong manufacturing economies with well paid workers.
    Look at all the companies saying that their parts pyramid is being interrupted by the Ukraine war - the process I am describing has been happening on a huge scale.

    This is why since 1989, the economies of Eastern Europe have done so well (in most cases) - a river of money and jobs has poured into them. It's like watching the water flow into holes dug on a beach - levelling up in action.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    IshmaelZ said:

    Alas
    You'd have hated the platform shoes, four inch waist bands and penny collar shirts...and they were all lime green, brown and orange.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    No it's not. It's immoral foreign owners riding a coach and horses through our now inadequate employment rights.
    It’s an area where we need to take back control, so it’s only UK owners who ride coach and horses through inadequate employment rights. 😤
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Not the only one, surely?
    Well, the only one who, if he is getting paid, is providing value for money.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,060
    MaxPB said:

    No, I'm not an expert just going by the media reports that future network investment is being pushed further out into the future but no cuts to fixed costs are being considered by the mayor outside of a small bit of management consolidation. He cut the night tube, but we still get 40 TPH on the Victoria line all day, and loads of them are just empty outside of peak hours on weekdays because the demand isn't there. Seems a bit mad to me.
    Though if you have the trains and the tunnels, the general principle is that you're paying for them so you might as well use them. The cost of the drivers is a pretty small part of the total bill.

    These guys seem to know what they're talking about;

    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2021/tube-financial-crisis-why-closures-rarely-save-money/

    https://www.londonreconnections.com/2021/the-political-myth-of-the-driverless-tube-train/
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    edited March 2022
    kle4 said:

    Making his people poorer but more terrified, rather than getting richer and still maintaining an iron grip. Who knew he'd shoot for the Belarus model rather than the China model?
    In a way it is the Chinese model.

    I was impressed by that Anatol Lieven article in the FT about how Putin and the oligarchs admire the way China (Xi) has achieved a much tighter grip while continuing to deliver economic growth.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    biggles said:

    I’ve never felt I needed evidence in order to blame the French.
    I feel like the British vice is hypocrisy, whereas the French one is deceit. It’s hard to separate them sometimes.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    You'd have hated the platform shoes, four inch waist bands and penny collar shirts...and they were all lime green, brown and orange.
    Mate, I was born in 1961. I have kodak photos of me in that lot.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,031

    For some reason I find Chris “Derby” Williams even more infuriating than Putin.

    He is a true, true shit.

    I am not sure if he belongs in prison or a mental asylum.
    He is an excellent argument for bringing back the stocks.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Cookie said:

    On another note, isn't it nice to be discussing economics and employment? Rather than Brexit, culture wars, covid or war. Younger readers may be unaware, but up until the first decade of this century this is what politics was always like.

    I was reflecting the other day that one of my clearest childhood memories was one of my parents getting publicly scapegoated by a major multiple for falling sales in the other half of the company at the outset of the great recession. Since then average graduate salaries have fallen by over a third in real terms, I had Brexit at the end of my schooling, and graduated at the start of Covid, now I'm in work and having to help deal with the fallout of the Russian arm of our business get axed. What I'd give for the calm growth of the early naughties again.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976

    You'd have hated the platform shoes, four inch waist bands and penny collar shirts...and they were all lime green, brown and orange.
    Standard IshZ apparel even now I believe.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    MaxPB said:

    No, I'm not an expert just going by the media reports that future network investment is being pushed further out into the future but no cuts to fixed costs are being considered by the mayor outside of a small bit of management consolidation. He cut the night tube, but we still get 40 TPH on the Victoria line all day, and loads of them are just empty outside of peak hours on weekdays because the demand isn't there. Seems a bit mad to me.
    What I can say is that NY subway is utter shit. They have cut services, the stations are filthy and poorly manned, and violent crime is on the up.

    Not a model to follow.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    I feel like the British vice is hypocrisy, whereas the French one is deceit. It’s hard to separate them sometimes.
    It makes me sad that you think Albion has lost its perfidiousness.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,677
    Foxy said:

    Except manufacturing is no longer reliant on cheap labour (though service industries are) which is why many developed countries have strong manufacturing economies with well paid workers.
    That's completely false. The vast majority of manufacturing relies on cheap labour, we just don't do a lot of it as it's moved to countries like China or India where the cost of labour is very low.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    edited March 2022

    QT: gonnae be a lot unbuttered Ukranian parsnips.

    Christ, Braverman actually did the GSTQ NLAW wank.

    The Ukrainian MP is very articulate and impressive.

    Cruella on the other hand is on Conservative Party duty. What an idiot.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448

    Look at all the companies saying that their parts pyramid is being interrupted by the Ukraine war - the process I am describing has been happening on a huge scale.

    This is why since 1989, the economies of Eastern Europe have done so well (in most cases) - a river of money and jobs has poured into them. It's like watching the water flow into holes dug on a beach - levelling up in action.
    And vice versa too. That is just internationalisation of supply chains.

    Sure, some manufacturing is low paid (though even there the rag trade has increased here with fast turn around times) but increasingly it is high tech and well paid, at least compared to many service industries. Automation means far fewer employees in Britain build more cars than we did in the Seventies.

    I think that the nihilism over manufacturing from Tory freemarketerrs is over done.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,677

    What I can say is that NY subway is utter shit. They have cut services, the stations are filthy and poorly manned, and violent crime is on the up.

    Not a model to follow.
    Different issue really, a lot of why the NY subway is shit is the inability to let go of 24h service. There was an incredible piece on it in the NY Times a few years ago, the gist was that it made it impossible to do routine maintenance without extremely high marginal costs which has hollowed out the budget for any investment and now it's cutting into normal services.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    biggles said:


    Principled sovereignty point - though I started out assuming and wanting EFTA/EEA as a first step until it became clear that wasn’t possible. I believe in open borders and more or less unlimited immigration, so I’ve never felt “part” of most of those who share the objective.

    Thanks for a response that doesn’t include the words “remoaner” and “saboteurs”.

    I think EEA *was* available, but Theresa May fucked it, partly through her own incompetence and partly because she in turn was sabotaged by Johnson et al.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976

    The Ukrainian MP is very articulate and impressive.

    Cruella on the other hand is on Conservative Party duty. What an idiot.
    She is though the other panelists seem a little in awe of her.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,961
    edited March 2022
    glw said:

    It might even had worked if the US intelligence community had not already told Ukraine who was coming, when they were coming, and where they were going to attack. Ukraine basically watched the Russians land and then shelled them, and then went in on foot to mop up the survivors. So apart from Ukraine knowing their every move it was not a bad plan.
    I am no military expert, but the Russian's don't seem very well trained. They seem totally clueless what they are supposed to be doing.....

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504584420166193165?s=20&t=PR0lIKTajcTh4md88QqCJw
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585

    It’s an area where we need to take back control, so it’s only UK owners who ride coach and horses through inadequate employment rights. 😤
    Yeah but, that's ok. there's a trickle down effect, I read about it on PB.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,476
    Foxy said:

    And vice versa too. That is just internationalisation of supply chains.

    Sure, some manufacturing is low paid (though even there the rag trade has increased here with fast turn around times) but increasingly it is high tech and well paid, at least compared to many service industries. Automation means far fewer employees in Britain build more cars than we did in the Seventies.

    I think that the nihilism over manufacturing from Tory freemarketerrs is over done.
    I'd agree that investment in automation onshore is a better bet in the long run.

    The effect, however at various levels in the economy is to cause economic progress to go backwards for some people, while they see shiny new towers in Bulgaria housing the jobs they once had.

    Simply ignoring this is where Le Pen & Co get their votes....
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Thanks for a response that doesn’t include the words “remoaner” and “saboteurs”.

    I think EEA *was* available, but Theresa May fucked it, partly through her own incompetence and partly because she in turn was sabotaged by Johnson et al.
    I’m going to add that even though I think immigration is fantastic, I do think the volume was extraordinarily high for a significant period (it’s still very high, but Europeans are being replaced by Indians).

    However the way to address was largely to follow the Swiss model, and also to take the opportunity for some benefit reform.

    We also failed to incentivise or “reward” communities with immigration, so it was often perceived as a reduction of public service.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448

    I'd agree that investment in automation onshore is a better bet in the long run.

    The effect, however at various levels in the economy is to cause economic progress to go backwards for some people, while they see shiny new towers in Bulgaria housing the jobs they once had.

    Simply ignoring this is where Le Pen & Co get their votes....
    Yes but we see with P and O that they were sold a lie. Their jobs are going to the foreigners post Brexit too.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Thanks for a response that doesn’t include the words “remoaner” and “saboteurs”.

    I think EEA *was* available, but Theresa May fucked it, partly through her own incompetence and partly because she in turn was sabotaged by Johnson et al.
    You forgot to mention the word Labour. According to my Dad Labour sabotaged both the 2016 remain vote and the more business friendly Brexit by playing opposition games, and it’s why remainers should think twice about voting for the fools
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    biggles said:

    I’ve never felt I needed evidence in order to blame the French.
    We would have world peace by now if it wasn’t for the French.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,476

    I am no military expert, but the Russian's don't seem very well trained. They seem totally clueless what they are supposed to be doing.....

    https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1504584420166193165?s=20&t=PR0lIKTajcTh4md88QqCJw
    I'm just remembering the shouting that would have occurred in the CCF for wandering around like that, standing up, in an exercise. And pointing your gun at people on your own side.....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 53,476
    Foxy said:

    Yes but we see with P and O that they were sold a lie. Their jobs are going to the foreigners post Brexit too.
    BREXIT was the symptom. Not the cause, or the cure.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    You forgot to mention the word Labour. According to my Dad Labour sabotaged both the 2016 remain vote and the more business friendly Brexit by playing opposition games, and it’s why remainers should think twice about voting for the fools
    Yes, but I don’t buy that especially.
    For a start, the Remain vote did not map 1:1 to Labour.

    Corbyn is one of the fathers of Brexit, but not, I think, significantly to blame for the *shape* of Brexit.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,644
    glw said:

    It might even had worked if the US intelligence community had not already told Ukraine who was coming, when they were coming, and where they were going to attack. Ukraine basically watched the Russians land and then shelled them, and then went in on foot to mop up the survivors. So apart from Ukraine knowing their every move it was not a bad plan.
    US intelligence is definitely a way to give major help to allies without intervening overtly - didn't we get US help that way in the Falklands war?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 18,060

    Thanks for a response that doesn’t include the words “remoaner” and “saboteurs”.

    I think EEA *was* available, but Theresa May fucked it, partly through her own incompetence and partly because she in turn was sabotaged by Johnson et al.
    Yeah, the main problem with May making EEA land was that it would have sealed her Premiership and then Johnson wouldn't have got a go. And that would never have done.

    (I'm not convinced that EEA works in the medium term, because the autonomy in some things / vassalage in many things tradeoff works for a small nation but not for a large one. But it was the rational place to stand while working out what to do next as a nation. But nobody (and I mean nobody) was being rational in 2016.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,687

    The Ukrainian MP is very articulate and impressive.

    Cruella on the other hand is on Conservative Party duty. What an idiot.
    Ukr MP is a total star, based on the 10 mins I have watched.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,961
    Macron said that if re-elected he would move swiftly to carry out the pensions overhaul that he had failed to put in place in his current mandate. He would gradually increase the pension age from 62 to 65, bringing it into line with countries such as the UK and Germany, while setting a minimum pension rate at €1,100 a month. He said he had “learned the lessons” from his past difficulties.

    In 2019, Macron’s proposed pensions overhaul sparked protests that lasted longer than any strike since the wildcat workers’ stoppages of 1968, and the measures were shelved during the pandemic.

    Macron said he would also radically overhaul the unemployment benefits system to push people back to work. This would include requiring unemployed people to undertake 15 to 20 hours of work or training a week. In another politically risky change, all social benefits – for unemployment, housing or childcare – would be centralised in a single system, affecting up to 20 million people.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/17/emmanuel-macron-vows-to-step-up-welfare-reforms-if-re-elected

    Yellow Jackets will be rioting in the streets of France every weekend again.
  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724
    edited March 2022

    I’m going to add that even though I think immigration is fantastic, I do think the volume was extraordinarily high for a significant period (it’s still very high, but Europeans are being replaced by Indians).

    However the way to address was largely to follow the Swiss model, and also to take the opportunity for some benefit reform.

    We also failed to incentivise or “reward” communities with immigration, so it was often perceived as a reduction of public service.
    I think immigration is mostly about narrative, and we lost the narrative. But I do agree there was something to be done around benefits. I also think there was some reform needed to address low wages, and removing access to cheap foreign replacements is the lazy way. We have just not done enough to combat border line slavey and exploitation.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Yeah, the main problem with May making EEA land was that it would have sealed her Premiership and then Johnson wouldn't have got a go. And that would never have done.

    (I'm not convinced that EEA works in the medium term, because the autonomy in some things / vassalage in many things tradeoff works for a small nation but not for a large one. But it was the rational place to stand while working out what to do next as a nation. But nobody (and I mean nobody) was being rational in 2016.)
    I think the vassal thing is a bit overdone.
    I would not describe Switzerland as a vassal of the EU.

    Of course there are trade-offs, but there always are. Even a hard Brexit does not deliver untrammelled “sovereignty”.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,687
    "Any Ukr who wants to come here can" says Braverman on QT.

    Suspect her mobile will be ringing from No 10 in a few minutes.



  • bigglesbiggles Posts: 6,724

    Yeah, the main problem with May making EEA land was that it would have sealed her Premiership and then Johnson wouldn't have got a go. And that would never have done.

    (I'm not convinced that EEA works in the medium term, because the autonomy in some things / vassalage in many things tradeoff works for a small nation but not for a large one. But it was the rational place to stand while working out what to do next as a nation. But nobody (and I mean nobody) was being rational in 2016.)
    Exactly my view at the time. You “park” in the EEA, process the stuff that you repatriate by doing that, then think about phase two.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,687
    Braverman now seems to be saying there's a risk Ukr children will carry out terrorist attacks.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448

    BREXIT was the symptom. Not the cause, or the cure.
    Brexit is a blind alley that will lead to a lost decade or two. The answer to the ills of globalisation is not speeding up globalisation.

    Still, the financiers will count their piles of money in London, Zurich and it seems in Dubai.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    biggles said:

    Exactly my view at the time. You “park” in the EEA, process the stuff that you repatriate by doing that, then think about phase two.
    Me too!

    Sadly we were not running Brexit policy.
    I do find it intriguing though that we had the same general view, but were in two very opposing camps.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,687
    Wes is a total attack dog when he's in the mood.

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976
    Braverman showing her true crappy colours: very difficult to get rid of people once they’re in the country, who knows what reprehensible things they might do if we don’t do proper checks etc.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110
    Foxy said:

    Brexit is a blind alley that will lead to a lost decade or two. The answer to the ills of globalisation is not speeding up globalisation.

    Still, the financiers will count their piles of money in London, Zurich and it seems in Dubai.
    Brexit (however it was sold to Tory elites), is autarchic in nature, not “speeding up” globalisation.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,687

    Braverman showing her true crappy colours: very difficult to get rid of people once they’re in the country, who knows what reprehensible things they might do if we don’t do proper checks etc.

    And she was talking about children at that point.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976

    Braverman now seems to be saying there's a risk Ukr children will carry out terrorist attacks.

    She’s nasty and a fckn idiot, so about average for the current cabinet.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,164
    edited March 2022

    Brexit (however it was sold to Tory elites), is autarchic in nature, not “speeding up” globalisation.
    Do you think that all small states are autarchic "in nature" and should immediately seek to dissolve themselves into larger neighbours?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448

    Brexit (however it was sold to Tory elites), is autarchic in nature, not “speeding up” globalisation.
    No, the Brexiteers in the driving seat are the P and O style buccaneers. Not the Red Wallers, who will be kept onside with some red meat over culture wars etc. Same in America.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585
    IshmaelZ said:

    Coherently argued rebuttal. Well done.
    Pithy and to the point nonetheless.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968
    edited March 2022

    Macron said that if re-elected he would move swiftly to carry out the pensions overhaul that he had failed to put in place in his current mandate. He would gradually increase the pension age from 62 to 65, bringing it into line with countries such as the UK and Germany, while setting a minimum pension rate at €1,100 a month. He said he had “learned the lessons” from his past difficulties.

    In 2019, Macron’s proposed pensions overhaul sparked protests that lasted longer than any strike since the wildcat workers’ stoppages of 1968, and the measures were shelved during the pandemic.

    Macron said he would also radically overhaul the unemployment benefits system to push people back to work. This would include requiring unemployed people to undertake 15 to 20 hours of work or training a week. In another politically risky change, all social benefits – for unemployment, housing or childcare – would be centralised in a single system, affecting up to 20 million people.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/17/emmanuel-macron-vows-to-step-up-welfare-reforms-if-re-elected

    Yellow Jackets will be rioting in the streets of France every weekend again.

    No need for rioting. Macron has just lost the election.

    This is what I was saying last week, this time he will need to defend his policy positions, to an electorate who don’t want them. You can say Melenchon is left, Le Pen right, but they both speak for yellow jackets and the silent majority of electorate behind them; their voters can be fluid on this issue, type of Nationalism, anti EU, and another one not mentioned in this paragraph, tax system flawed against workers. Now this is where it gets interesting - fillion got nearly 20% of 1st round voters about half peeled to Macron rest sat on their vote, almost the same with Melechon. How do these 2nd round vote splits if you give more of the abstentions and pecresse votes to the challenger. This election isn’t remotely in the bag.

    Macron is a centerist EU supporter, with policy’s neither the right or left in the electorate support.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Do you think that all small state are autarchic "in nature" and should immediately seek to dissolve themselves into larger neighbours?
    I don’t buy your premise here, which is that EU entails “dissolution”. In fact, I think it’s batty.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,165
    Leon said:

    Thank fuck

    I don't envy American voters. The Democrats are diseased and need to be hurled into oblivion for a decade to acquire more sense and better leaders. And yet, Trump and the GOP contrive to be worse?!

    Maybe Putin and China are right. Democracy is fatally flawed

    It's not a good time to be doubting the fundamentals of western freedom, but America is making me do that
    Liberal democracy is dying and the US will be the first to fall. What follows will be far worse than communism would have been. You had your chance.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 50,448

    Macron said that if re-elected he would move swiftly to carry out the pensions overhaul that he had failed to put in place in his current mandate. He would gradually increase the pension age from 62 to 65, bringing it into line with countries such as the UK and Germany, while setting a minimum pension rate at €1,100 a month. He said he had “learned the lessons” from his past difficulties.

    In 2019, Macron’s proposed pensions overhaul sparked protests that lasted longer than any strike since the wildcat workers’ stoppages of 1968, and the measures were shelved during the pandemic.

    Macron said he would also radically overhaul the unemployment benefits system to push people back to work. This would include requiring unemployed people to undertake 15 to 20 hours of work or training a week. In another politically risky change, all social benefits – for unemployment, housing or childcare – would be centralised in a single system, affecting up to 20 million people.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/17/emmanuel-macron-vows-to-step-up-welfare-reforms-if-re-elected

    Yellow Jackets will be rioting in the streets of France every weekend again.

    Yes, between this and Corsica, it must be that Le Pen has more than 1 chance in 20. Seems value, even if a trading bet. Macron is way short at 1.08 on Smarkets.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,164

    I don’t buy your premise here, which is that EU entails “dissolution”. In fact, I think it’s batty.
    Over the long term it's a state building project.

    Regardless of the specifics of the EU debate, I don't see how you can argue that not being part of a trade bloc has any inherent bias towards autarky.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,687
    Dura_Ace said:

    Liberal democracy is dying and the US will be the first to fall. What follows will be far worse than communism would have been. You had your chance.
    It's not a done deal yet.

    But Dems need to wake from slumber.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,976
    Jeremy Corbyn, Jeremy Corbyn, Jeremy Corbyn!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,164
    Dura_Ace said:

    Liberal democracy is dying and the US will be the first to fall. What follows will be far worse than communism would have been. You had your chance.
    Communism isn't compatible with liberal democracy, and who's to say that communism isn't what's coming to the US anyway?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,554

    It’s possible that Putin’s new strategy is:

    1. Move Russia along the authoritarian to totalitarian spectrum

    2. Scare the shit out of his own population.

    Thereby cementing his own power and allowing a retreat from Ukraine.
    Since Putin has complete control of the media, why can't he announce victory, no NATO for Ukraine etc and arrest anyone who says otherwise? Then withdraw the troops and say that all Western goods are evil which is why there are none in the shops. Job done.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 53,197

    Wes is a total attack dog when he's in the mood.

    Pride of Ilford North :)
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Yes, but I don’t buy that especially.
    For a start, the Remain vote did not map 1:1 to Labour.

    Corbyn is one of the fathers of Brexit, but not, I think, significantly to blame for the *shape* of Brexit.
    That’s a big call. At one point Boris voted for May Brexit and Labour killed it is what factually happened in the history books is it not?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,687
    Wild applause for Ukr MP at end of QT.

    Hope you are watching Chris Derby Williamson. You and your three mates are utterly at odds with the rest of Britain.

  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,110

    Over the long term it's a state building project.

    Regardless of the specifics of the EU debate, I don't see how you can argue that not being part of a trade bloc has any inherent bias towards autarky.
    On your second point, because the UK now has more restricted trade with other countries, and I think you ignore that while the EU is a trade bloc it is not static in itself, it seems to agree trade deals with others.

    Your first point I would want to reply more fully, I am heading to a bar, but I don’t believe the direction of travel has been very fast; and nor is it fixed.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    MaxPB said:

    Yes, they've been made an offer of termination too, I think it's 13 weeks of regular pay. Which actually seems quite generous on the face of it. The communication has been substandard, but the pay off is probably why there's no consultation, it's not redundancy.
    If more than 20 people you have to have consultation. Sure you would be delighted with same treatment. Generous my arse. Pretty stupid , with that number you need minimum 90 days consultaion so 13 weeks is shite.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,585

    "Any Ukr who wants to come here can" says Braverman on QT.

    Suspect her mobile will be ringing from No 10 in a few minutes.



    Even Max Hastings is beating up on Cruella over Lebedev.
  • MoonRabbitMoonRabbit Posts: 13,968

    Communism isn't compatible with liberal democracy, and who's to say that communism isn't what's coming to the US anyway?
    I think Lenin and the Bolshevik’s were actually in the Liberal Democrat party?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 64,687
    edited March 2022
    Cyclefree said:

    Since Putin has complete control of the media, why can't he announce victory, no NATO for Ukraine etc and arrest anyone who says otherwise? Then withdraw the troops and say that all Western goods are evil which is why there are none in the shops. Job done.

    His true goal is the history books. He wants to be the 21st century Peter the Great.

    Even he is not deluded enough to think that the history books of 2150 will be written by his FSB mates and oligarch friends.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,922
    mwadams said:

    I'm not saying they are not donkeys. It just sounds like a typical institutional failure.
    It happens too often to tehm and they constantly prove they are useless donkeys nevertheless.
This discussion has been closed.