Sinn Féin 33% (+9) Fine Gael 20% (-1) Fianna Fáil 17% (-5) Greens 5% (-2) Social Democrats 4% (+1) Labour 4 (nc) People Before Profit/Solidarity 3% (nc) Aontú 2 (nc) others/independents 11% (-3)
(Red C/Business Post; 23 February 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)
That is a terrible poll for both FG and FF even though Sinn Fein is 'only' on 33% . Would be nice to see some properly detailed seat/constituency projections.
Sinn Féin 63 +26 Fine Gael 40 +6 Fianna Fáil 34 -3 Independents 8 -12 Social Democrats 5 -1 Green Party 3 -9 PBP/Solidarity 3 -2 Labour 3 -4 Aontú 1 nc Right2Change 0 -
Parliament has 160 members, so 81 needed for a majority.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
It is a statement of the obvious. With the 'breakaway republics' gone, a Russian puppet will never be elected. Unless they actually baldly state that they want Ukraine to be a non-democratic colony of Russia and its people denied a vote.
- Cases are still falling, R is below 1 for age and region. Some signs that the fall is slowing further - MV Beds - seems to be plateauing, after the increase around the 28th Feb - In hospital - likewise - Admissions - spike on the 28th. Need to see more data to see what is going on - Deaths down
The BA.2 bump feeding through.
It's why Northern Ireland has such high prevalence in the ONS infections survey and why Scotland has had admissions and hospital figures going up (but after NI):
Probably won't be very visible on the cases data; that's now less and less reliable. Watch the ONS survey and the hospital data.
Infections are bumping upwards in the oldest categories (most vulnerable) and this will feed through into hospitals.
Personally, I'm expecting more a "bump" than a "surge." NI look to be on their way down from the BA.2 bump. Scotland still rising but should plateau soon (I hope). We're now just starting that rise in England, but I'm expecting (hoping?) it'll be less severe because England's had longer for BA.1 to make its way around so immunity should be wider-spread (and vaccine coverage is better in England than NI).
Expect 2-3 weeks of a reversal in the drop in infections and admissions, though.
We may also be getting a small bump from behavioural change too. Very few people now wearing masks on the underground or in shops for example. If this is as bad as it gets then we're in a good place.
Sinn Féin 33% (+9) Fine Gael 20% (-1) Fianna Fáil 17% (-5) Greens 5% (-2) Social Democrats 4% (+1) Labour 4 (nc) People Before Profit/Solidarity 3% (nc) Aontú 2 (nc) others/independents 11% (-3)
(Red C/Business Post; 23 February 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)
That is a terrible poll for both FG and FF even though Sinn Fein is 'only' on 33% . Would be nice to see some properly detailed seat/constituency projections.
Sinn Féin 63 +26 Fine Gael 40 +6 Fianna Fáil 34 -3 Independents 8 -12 Social Democrats 5 -1 Green Party 3 -9 PBP/Solidarity 3 -2 Labour 3 -4 Aontú 1 nc Right2Change 0 -
Parliament has 160 members, so 81 needed for a majority.
Presumably they are perceived as having been cheated out of power last time by a dodgy deal? You can understand the emotion.
Enjoy the party everyone. This is a great website. I seem to remember going to an early pb.com party. Upstairs above a London pub in the mid 2000s? Back in the day when Guido was being anonymous. I think he covered his face on event pictures with his pint glass. But I might be getting my events confused!
Even most of the anti-fascist league Russia wants to put together abstaining, for shame. Who stands out with a surprising abstention though - South Afrtica?
Surprised Republic of Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo doesn't cause more confusion though.
Maybe still some lingering relationship, after the nuclear deal between the two was stopped in 2018.....
Still. Even if you assume that, the Russians have taken quite a battering, particularly their armored vehicles. (And one would assume, the people inside them.)
In some cases vehicles are so badly burnt they couldn't be identified (can't see anywhere near all the vehicles involved with the two roads of death NW of Kyiv etc), or were destroyed by drone strikes with the only footage being from the drones' screen, in which case they are not included.
Ukraine claims 211 tanks lost, and they have images of 54. Ukraine claims 850-1100 Russian vehicles lost, they have proof of at least 325. Ukraine claims 9 AA guns lost, 3 have proof etc.
Seeing as we have proof for over 20% of claimed losses, it is unlikely that dividing by a 5th is correct, maybe halving the claimed Ukrainian figures would be more suitable?
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Government agencies don't get to decide the seasons, which are set by the cosmos.
The Met Office uses that date for statistical convenience, there is no science behind it.
Oh not this again.
All season definitions are arbitrary, and can be useful in different ways with varying degrees of usefulness, but if you're going to base them on the solstices and the equinoxes, then those are the mid-points of the seasons. It's the cross-quarter days in between that mark the start/end points of the season (so the astronomical spring started near the start of February).
There must have been an epic misunderstanding at some point for anyone to think that summer started on midsummer's day, but that's no excuse for propagating it.
Wrong.
Season =! totality of daylight.
Seasonal lag (insolation) means that months with much less daylight are substantially warmer than those with more.
September is notably warmer than May in the UK, despite having considerably less daylight hours!
But the thermal lag is different in different places, so if you want to use temperature to define the seasons then fine - use temperature. But that will give you different dates then the equinoxes and the solstices.
If you're using the solstices and the equinoxes then by definition you're using the length of the days as your definition, and so summer should be the season of your longest days with midsummer at the midpoint.
Have a great time everyone and I'm sorry I cannot make it. Child care!
Meanwhile, I think in the run up to the next General Election this kind of thing is going to be a significant Achilles heel for the Conservative Party:
Enjoy the party everyone. This is a great website. I seem to remember going to an early pb.com party. Upstairs above a London pub in the mid 2000s? Back in the day when Guido was being anonymous. I think he covered his face on event pictures with his pint glass. But I might be getting my events confused!
You remember correctly. That was the first PB thread that I read, probably in 2005 or thereabouts. It's a pity the old chronological list has disappeared from the sidebar. Always interesting for a nostalgic read late at night.
On the filming/photographing of Russian POWs by some Ukrainians, I haven't seen anything yet that would seem to break the rather vague rules.
The Third Geneva Convention, Part 2, Article 13 states that prisoners of war must be treated humanely and "Protected against public curiosity".
"GC III, Art. 13 does not per se prohibit photographing a POW. The prohibition extends to photographs that degrade or humiliate a POW. With respect to POWs, there is some value added in disseminating photographs since it gives family members assurance that their loved one is alive. "
Sinn Féin 33% (+9) Fine Gael 20% (-1) Fianna Fáil 17% (-5) Greens 5% (-2) Social Democrats 4% (+1) Labour 4 (nc) People Before Profit/Solidarity 3% (nc) Aontú 2 (nc) others/independents 11% (-3)
(Red C/Business Post; 23 February 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)
That is a terrible poll for both FG and FF even though Sinn Fein is 'only' on 33% . Would be nice to see some properly detailed seat/constituency projections.
Sinn Féin 63 +26 Fine Gael 40 +6 Fianna Fáil 34 -3 Independents 8 -12 Social Democrats 5 -1 Green Party 3 -9 PBP/Solidarity 3 -2 Labour 3 -4 Aontú 1 nc Right2Change 0 -
Parliament has 160 members, so 81 needed for a majority.
That's certainly true for Fianna Fail (who of course polled 17% in 2011 as well) but that's still pretty bad for Fine Gael, apparently their worst polling since 2005. We'll see if 20% is their floor or not.
Sinn Fein is clearly on course for 60+ seats next time. Depending on how transfer friendly they could potentially be, I even wonder if they could manage a similar result that Fine Gael managed in 2011 i.e. around 45% of the seats on 36% of the vote (which could completely lock out both FG and FF).
When Ronald Reagan proposed the STAR WARS program in the 1980s, it was a mad fantasy that would never have worked and should never have been proposed.
But it served one purpose. It left the Warsaw Pact in no doubt that the West was packin' and had every intention of pulling them pistols if the Communists struck first. Every intention.
A few year later, communism collapsed.
Compared to that, today's messaging from the West is supine, gutless and cowardly. We clearly don't want to fight under any circumstances and so its highly likely that we will be asked to.
Its also interesting that I am not the only poster picking up on this.
It's really not. But please don't let that worry you.
Erm…. the STEM folk are exactly the ones doing the lion’s share of the work on intelligence collection, analysis, and dissemination; as well as assessments on the Russian kit and calculations around logistics. They also designed and built NLAW, Javelin and the other kit.
As a history graduate, this is absolutely not the time I would seek to one up those with actually worthwhile education.
"The difference between science and the fuzzy subjects is that science requires reasoning, while those other subjects merely require scholarship"
- Lazarus Long
Heinlein is full of great quotes.
Those who remember their Henlein aren’t doomed to repeat it, though….
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
It is a statement of the obvious. With the 'breakaway republics' gone, a Russian puppet will never be elected. Unless they actually baldly state that they want Ukraine to be a non-democratic colony of Russia and its people denied a vote.
Depending how you draw the borders of the breakaway republics, you would probably have a majority of anti-Putin voters in them. Both Luhansk and Donetsk are majority Ukrainian ethnicity.
More importantly, this deal might have been acceptable pre-invasion but it no longer is. Ukraine is a sovereign country entitles to freedom on its foreign policy and clearly needs defense partners to protect against Russian invasion in future. In addition, the war has shown Russia is a paper tiger and cannot subjugate Ukraine long term. As their leverage has evaporated, we should not reward them for their unprovoked, brutal war.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
It is a statement of the obvious. With the 'breakaway republics' gone, a Russian puppet will never be elected. Unless they actually baldly state that they want Ukraine to be a non-democratic colony of Russia and its people denied a vote.
Depending how you draw the borders of the breakaway republics, you would probably have a majority of anti-Putin voters in them. Both Luhansk and Donetsk are majority Ukrainian ethnicity.
More importantly, this deal might have been acceptable pre-invasion but it no longer is. Ukraine is a sovereign country entitles to freedom on its foreign policy and clearly needs defense partners to protect against Russian invasion in future. In addition, the war has shown Russia is a paper tiger and cannot subjugate Ukraine long term. As their leverage has evaporated, we should not reward them for their unprovoked, brutal war.
Perfect fallback plan in the event of a military cock up for Russia - keep those areas under control, pushing out those not on board, until either there is a majority, or in any case point to refusal of Ukraine to be 'reasonable' and allow a vote when Russian troops have been supporting the area for 8 years as being outrageous. Nonsense, but allows them to play the 'we just want to talk and have a vote' card.
Okay, let’s believe (ha!) for a minute that the Russians have lost 500 soldiers.
How many more do we think might have been:
A. Injured? B. Captured?
Now, the Ukranians are claiming nearly 6,000 dead Russians.
Can we scale up the injured and captured numbers in the same proportions, and if so what percentage of the 100k troops the Russians say have gone over the border, are no longer in play?
The truth, as always in war, is going to be somewhere in the middle.
The Ukraine figure is for casualties - killed and wounded, I think.
Sinn Féin 33% (+9) Fine Gael 20% (-1) Fianna Fáil 17% (-5) Greens 5% (-2) Social Democrats 4% (+1) Labour 4 (nc) People Before Profit/Solidarity 3% (nc) Aontú 2 (nc) others/independents 11% (-3)
(Red C/Business Post; 23 February 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)
That is a terrible poll for both FG and FF even though Sinn Fein is 'only' on 33% . Would be nice to see some properly detailed seat/constituency projections.
Sinn Féin 63 +26 Fine Gael 40 +6 Fianna Fáil 34 -3 Independents 8 -12 Social Democrats 5 -1 Green Party 3 -9 PBP/Solidarity 3 -2 Labour 3 -4 Aontú 1 nc Right2Change 0 -
Parliament has 160 members, so 81 needed for a majority.
So in other words the governing Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are on 74 and SF are on 63.
Add in the Independents to FG and FF and they have 82 seats and a majority
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
It is a statement of the obvious. With the 'breakaway republics' gone, a Russian puppet will never be elected. Unless they actually baldly state that they want Ukraine to be a non-democratic colony of Russia and its people denied a vote.
Depending how you draw the borders of the breakaway republics, you would probably have a majority of anti-Putin voters in them. Both Luhansk and Donetsk are majority Ukrainian ethnicity.
More importantly, this deal might have been acceptable pre-invasion but it no longer is. Ukraine is a sovereign country entitles to freedom on its foreign policy and clearly needs defense partners to protect against Russian invasion in future. In addition, the war has shown Russia is a paper tiger and cannot subjugate Ukraine long term. As their leverage has evaporated, we should not reward them for their unprovoked, brutal war.
Perfect fallback plan in the event of a military cock up for Russia - keep those areas under control, pushing out those not on board, until either there is a majority, or in any case point to refusal of Ukraine to be 'reasonable' and allow a vote when Russian troops have been supporting the area for 8 years as being outrageous. Nonsense, but allows them to play the 'we just want to talk and have a vote' card.
Something the West cannot accept, given majority Russian areas of Latvia and Lithuania etc. Russia guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in 1991. They cannot be rewarded for their unprovoked war because it just incentivizes every revanchist claim around the world.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
It is a statement of the obvious. With the 'breakaway republics' gone, a Russian puppet will never be elected. Unless they actually baldly state that they want Ukraine to be a non-democratic colony of Russia and its people denied a vote.
Depending how you draw the borders of the breakaway republics, you would probably have a majority of anti-Putin voters in them. Both Luhansk and Donetsk are majority Ukrainian ethnicity.
More importantly, this deal might have been acceptable pre-invasion but it no longer is. Ukraine is a sovereign country entitles to freedom on its foreign policy and clearly needs defense partners to protect against Russian invasion in future. In addition, the war has shown Russia is a paper tiger and cannot subjugate Ukraine long term. As their leverage has evaporated, we should not reward them for their unprovoked, brutal war.
Perfect fallback plan in the event of a military cock up for Russia - keep those areas under control, pushing out those not on board, until either there is a majority, or in any case point to refusal of Ukraine to be 'reasonable' and allow a vote when Russian troops have been supporting the area for 8 years as being outrageous. Nonsense, but allows them to play the 'we just want to talk and have a vote' card.
Something the West cannot accept, given majority Russian areas of Latvia and Lithuania etc. Russia guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in 1991. They cannot be rewarded for their unprovoked war because it just incentivizes every revanchist claim around the world.
They shouldn't be so rewarded, but I fear they will, for sake of a quiet life (so long as you don't live there).
Be warned: the weather down here in The Smoke is absolutely vile. Cold wet drenching rain. Certainly doesn't feel like the 2nd day of spring...
It isn't. Spring does not start until 20th March.
I am in Oxford today and also won't be able to go but congrats PM on its 18th birthday and to OGH for launching it and hope those going have a good time
Just for the pedantry: Meteorological Spring is 1st March.
Government agencies don't get to decide the seasons, which are set by the cosmos.
The Met Office uses that date for statistical convenience, there is no science behind it.
Oh not this again.
All season definitions are arbitrary, and can be useful in different ways with varying degrees of usefulness, but if you're going to base them on the solstices and the equinoxes, then those are the mid-points of the seasons. It's the cross-quarter days in between that mark the start/end points of the season (so the astronomical spring started near the start of February).
There must have been an epic misunderstanding at some point for anyone to think that summer started on midsummer's day, but that's no excuse for propagating it.
Wrong.
Season =! totality of daylight.
Seasonal lag (insolation) means that months with much less daylight are substantially warmer than those with more.
September is notably warmer than May in the UK, despite having considerably less daylight hours!
But the thermal lag is different in different places, so if you want to use temperature to define the seasons then fine - use temperature. But that will give you different dates then the equinoxes and the solstices.
If you're using the solstices and the equinoxes then by definition you're using the length of the days as your definition, and so summer should be the season of your longest days with midsummer at the midpoint.
The two fallacies in this discussion are (a) that there are precisely four seasons and (b) that they are all the same length.
Even most of the anti-fascist league Russia wants to put together abstaining, for shame. Who stands out with a surprising abstention though - South Afrtica?
Surprised Republic of Congo and Democratic Republic of Congo doesn't cause more confusion though.
The abstention list is a useful repository of safe places to escape to if things take a thermonuclear turn. Of the ones on the list, well we all know Sri Lanka has nice hotels and catering. A few like Armenia or Tajikistan are too close to the action. I think I'd probably still risk a far-away green tick location. Chile, Singapore or New Zealand.
Some of the greens are quite surprising too. Serbia I suppose had little choice. UAE voted for here, yet abstained at the security council so someone has been having a word. The most amusing must be Afghanistan. Cheers, Talibs!
The Taliban have experience of Russian occupation, they are just as anti Russian as anti US
BBC:Georgia - a former Soviet state on the eastern shore of the Black Sea - will "immediately" apply for EU membership, its ruling party Georgian Dream says.
Another state with occupied territory which probably has little hope of actually joining as a result, never mind for any other reasons, but the more who are actively seeking it, and so can receive support and more protection (not that it helped with those occupied bits) as a result, the btter.
Lavrov is all over the place, setting the agenda left, right and centre.
I can see the key outlines of a deal - no missiles stationed in Ukraine, no NATO, but all troops out, full recognition of the state and Zelenskiy as Lavrov has already hinted at, and retention of other military, and-or defensive infrastructure, including anything else.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
It is a statement of the obvious. With the 'breakaway republics' gone, a Russian puppet will never be elected. Unless they actually baldly state that they want Ukraine to be a non-democratic colony of Russia and its people denied a vote.
Depending how you draw the borders of the breakaway republics, you would probably have a majority of anti-Putin voters in them. Both Luhansk and Donetsk are majority Ukrainian ethnicity.
More importantly, this deal might have been acceptable pre-invasion but it no longer is. Ukraine is a sovereign country entitles to freedom on its foreign policy and clearly needs defense partners to protect against Russian invasion in future. In addition, the war has shown Russia is a paper tiger and cannot subjugate Ukraine long term. As their leverage has evaporated, we should not reward them for their unprovoked, brutal war.
Perfect fallback plan in the event of a military cock up for Russia - keep those areas under control, pushing out those not on board, until either there is a majority, or in any case point to refusal of Ukraine to be 'reasonable' and allow a vote when Russian troops have been supporting the area for 8 years as being outrageous. Nonsense, but allows them to play the 'we just want to talk and have a vote' card.
'Funnily' enough, DPR/LNR are the two areas where reports of Ukrainian advances are being made, because you have the crack Ukrainian soldiers up against the dregs of the Russian army, backed up by Ukrainian conscripts who likely don't want to be under the heel of Russia anymore.
Okay, let’s believe (ha!) for a minute that the Russians have lost 500 soldiers.
How many more do we think might have been:
A. Injured? B. Captured?
Now, the Ukranians are claiming nearly 6,000 dead Russians.
Can we scale up the injured and captured numbers in the same proportions, and if so what percentage of the 100k troops the Russians say have gone over the border, are no longer in play?
The truth, as always in war, is going to be somewhere in the middle.
The Ukraine figure is for casualties - killed and wounded, I think.
The 5840 in the slide above, is the Ukranian number for dead Russian soldiers. They’re not giving numbers of wounded or captured.
NEWS: Department of Justice announces new taskforce, "KLEPTOCAPTURE," to track down wealth of sanctioned Russian oligarchs. Big new effort includes SDNY, IRS, FBI, Secret Service, US Marshals, etc. Aimed at ensuring US can seize $ of sanctioned Russian elite tied to Putin https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1499052393069260807
BBC:Georgia - a former Soviet state on the eastern shore of the Black Sea - will "immediately" apply for EU membership, its ruling party Georgian Dream says.
Another state with occupied territory which probably has little hope of actually joining as a result, never mind for any other reasons, but the more who are actively seeking it, and so can receive support and more protection (not that it helped with those occupied bits) as a result, the btter.
But of a worry if Putin decides to have its separatist areas kick off…
I do wonder if the U.K., EU. EEA, and EFTA light to get their heads together around some form of neo-EFTA based on the “British model” for some of the outlying states which we can all sit in? Layer in some of the recent non-EU European defence construct proposals working with the grain of NATO too.
BBC:Georgia - a former Soviet state on the eastern shore of the Black Sea - will "immediately" apply for EU membership, its ruling party Georgian Dream says.
Another state with occupied territory which probably has little hope of actually joining as a result, never mind for any other reasons, but the more who are actively seeking it, and so can receive support and more protection (not that it helped with those occupied bits) as a result, the btter.
It's going to be tricky for the EU. I think it'll prove eventually to be good, but all these disparate nations wanting to join won't be at all easy to manage. The main thong of course is to get rid of Putin, and then everyone can worry about other stuff. (Plucky from the Luxembourg Foreign Minister who suggested he should be topped, although since withdrawn)
advisers at merchant bank Raine are contacting billionaires and other high-net worth individuals in the US and elsewhere to gauge interest in acquiring Chelsea Football Club
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
It is a statement of the obvious. With the 'breakaway republics' gone, a Russian puppet will never be elected. Unless they actually baldly state that they want Ukraine to be a non-democratic colony of Russia and its people denied a vote.
Depending how you draw the borders of the breakaway republics, you would probably have a majority of anti-Putin voters in them. Both Luhansk and Donetsk are majority Ukrainian ethnicity.
More importantly, this deal might have been acceptable pre-invasion but it no longer is. Ukraine is a sovereign country entitles to freedom on its foreign policy and clearly needs defense partners to protect against Russian invasion in future. In addition, the war has shown Russia is a paper tiger and cannot subjugate Ukraine long term. As their leverage has evaporated, we should not reward them for their unprovoked, brutal war.
Perfect fallback plan in the event of a military cock up for Russia - keep those areas under control, pushing out those not on board, until either there is a majority, or in any case point to refusal of Ukraine to be 'reasonable' and allow a vote when Russian troops have been supporting the area for 8 years as being outrageous. Nonsense, but allows them to play the 'we just want to talk and have a vote' card.
Something the West cannot accept, given majority Russian areas of Latvia and Lithuania etc. Russia guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in 1991. They cannot be rewarded for their unprovoked war because it just incentivizes every revanchist claim around the world.
They shouldn't be so rewarded, but I fear they will, for sake of a quiet life (so long as you don't live there).
The only way Ukraine should have to accept any loss of territory (including Crimea), is in exchange for acceptance of 100% independence of action in its domestic and foreign policy.
advisers at merchant bank Raine are contacting billionaires and other high-net worth individuals in the US and elsewhere to gauge interest in acquiring Chelsea Football Club
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
It is a statement of the obvious. With the 'breakaway republics' gone, a Russian puppet will never be elected. Unless they actually baldly state that they want Ukraine to be a non-democratic colony of Russia and its people denied a vote.
Depending how you draw the borders of the breakaway republics, you would probably have a majority of anti-Putin voters in them. Both Luhansk and Donetsk are majority Ukrainian ethnicity.
More importantly, this deal might have been acceptable pre-invasion but it no longer is. Ukraine is a sovereign country entitles to freedom on its foreign policy and clearly needs defense partners to protect against Russian invasion in future. In addition, the war has shown Russia is a paper tiger and cannot subjugate Ukraine long term. As their leverage has evaporated, we should not reward them for their unprovoked, brutal war.
Perfect fallback plan in the event of a military cock up for Russia - keep those areas under control, pushing out those not on board, until either there is a majority, or in any case point to refusal of Ukraine to be 'reasonable' and allow a vote when Russian troops have been supporting the area for 8 years as being outrageous. Nonsense, but allows them to play the 'we just want to talk and have a vote' card.
Something the West cannot accept, given majority Russian areas of Latvia and Lithuania etc. Russia guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity in 1991. They cannot be rewarded for their unprovoked war because it just incentivizes every revanchist claim around the world.
They shouldn't be so rewarded, but I fear they will, for sake of a quiet life (so long as you don't live there).
The only way Ukraine should have to accept any loss of territory (including Crimea), is in exchange for acceptance of 100% independence of action in its domestic and foreign policy.
'Neutrality', already an unworkable demand, would be all the more ridiculous if it is demanded alongside relinquishing or accepting autonomy-at-gunpoint for sections of territory.
Libel costs awarded against a dodgy litigant, for once.
Well this is interesting: @tomburgis - author of Kleptopia - how dirty money is conquering the world - has just won the defamation action brought against him by one of the companies that features in his rather gripping investigation: https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1499047525898149891
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
Probably, plus some deal protecting the eastern provinces and Crimea - whether regional government or guarantees. The recognition of Zelensky was stressed by the Russians last week when they said they weren't seeking regime change
Apparently a cease-fire is also under discussion at the talks.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
Probably, plus some deal protecting the eastern provinces and Crimea - whether regional government or guarantees. The recognition of Zelensky was stressed by the Russians last week when they said they weren't seeking regime change
Apparently a cease-fire is also under discussion at the talks.
I hope ceasefire includes no movement of invasion forces, not merely not firing.
I don't know why, but there is quite often something striking in official pictures from the Commons. This one a bit more obvious reason for being striking Shame the place will probably fall to bits.
Must have been a vote on their own pay rises given the place is packed
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
Probably, plus some deal protecting the eastern provinces and Crimea - whether regional government or guarantees. The recognition of Zelensky was stressed by the Russians last week when they said they weren't seeking regime change
Apparently a cease-fire is also under discussion at the talks.
The days always close with more promise than they start, recently..
Let's hope more civilians don't have to die first though, because for most people the agony and the missile strikes are still going on.
I don't know why, but there is quite often something striking in official pictures from the Commons. This one a bit more obvious reason for being striking Shame the place will probably fall to bits.
Must have been a vote on their own pay rises given the place is packed
Nope PMQs at a time of crisis - I suspect the response was pre-planned and it encouraged MPs to attend
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
Probably, plus some deal protecting the eastern provinces and Crimea - whether regional government or guarantees. The recognition of Zelensky was stressed by the Russians last week when they said they weren't seeking regime change
Apparently a cease-fire is also under discussion at the talks.
I hope ceasefire includes no movement of invasion forces, not merely not firing.
What probability of mutually assured destruction from a nuclear world war makes it acceptable to sacrifice Ukraine for our safety?
5%. It isn't just "our safety."
Same would apply if UK and Ukrainian positions were reversed
Sorry, thought the context made it clear that "our" meant the world's.
Thanks for the answer though. I think it's instructive to consider stark issues like this in probability terms to understand the value we instinctively place on things.
I'm finding it hard to decide on my number, but it's definitely higher than yours. Maybe even as high as 25%.
I don't have much to lose though. I'm going to ask my nephew (my only nibling and closest I have to offspring) with his whole adult life ahead of him what he thinks of my gamble on his future over Ukraine.
"In the current situation, I have therefore taken the decision to sell the Club"
"RA adds: "I will not be asking for any loans to be repaid."
"I have instructed my team to set up a charitable foundation where all net proceeds from the sale will be donated. The foundation will be for the benefit of all victims of the war in Ukraine."
£2-3bn will be a good start in terms of reparations.
Sinn Féin 33% (+9) Fine Gael 20% (-1) Fianna Fáil 17% (-5) Greens 5% (-2) Social Democrats 4% (+1) Labour 4 (nc) People Before Profit/Solidarity 3% (nc) Aontú 2 (nc) others/independents 11% (-3)
(Red C/Business Post; 23 February 2022; 1,001; change from GE 2020)
That is a terrible poll for both FG and FF even though Sinn Fein is 'only' on 33% . Would be nice to see some properly detailed seat/constituency projections.
Sinn Féin 63 +26 Fine Gael 40 +6 Fianna Fáil 34 -3 Independents 8 -12 Social Democrats 5 -1 Green Party 3 -9 PBP/Solidarity 3 -2 Labour 3 -4 Aontú 1 nc Right2Change 0 -
Parliament has 160 members, so 81 needed for a majority.
So in other words the governing Fine Gael and Fianna Fail are on 74 and SF are on 63.
Add in the Independents to FG and FF and they have 82 seats and a majority
LOL.
Not the remotest chance.
The only stable coalition on those figures would be SF + FF, on the assumption that FF are much more likely to form a coalition with SF than FG.
"In the current situation, I have therefore taken the decision to sell the Club"
"RA adds: "I will not be asking for any loans to be repaid."
"I have instructed my team to set up a charitable foundation where all net proceeds from the sale will be donated. The foundation will be for the benefit of all victims of the war in Ukraine."
£2-3bn will be a good start in terms of reparations.
“Net proceeds” can be interpreted several ways depending on how you account for the intervening 15 years.
I don't know why, but there is quite often something striking in official pictures from the Commons. This one a bit more obvious reason for being striking Shame the place will probably fall to bits.
Must have been a vote on their own pay rises given the place is packed
I may misremember, but I thought they had cleverly arranged it so they don't vote on those anymore. So not their fault, guvnor
(actually I'm sanguine on MP pay increases, but expenses should be much reduced as a result)
On Chelsea I do not understand how Abramovich can sell in the present climate and restrictions and how the Premier League would sanction the sale
In truth Abramovich should have it confiscated but no doubt London lawyers will act for Abramovich interests to prevent it
I'm out of the loop, what's Abramovich supposed to have done. I know that there's a baseline dodginess to being a megarich oligarch from his cohort, but are there any specific allegations?
Seems more just that after years of looking the other way with these oligarchs goverments are finding it prudent to take a closer look with a few at least. Minor though that is, it seems to be spooking the others.
On Chelsea I do not understand how Abramovich can sell in the present climate and restrictions and how the Premier League would sanction the sale
In truth Abramovich should have it confiscated but no doubt London lawyers will act for Abramovich interests to prevent it
I'm out of the loop, what's Abramovich supposed to have done. I know that there's a baseline dodginess to being a megarich oligarch from his cohort, but are there any specific allegations?
Seems more just that after years of looking the other way with these oligarchs goverments are finding it prudent to take a closer look with a few at least. Minor though that is, it seems to be spooking the others.
He was named by Starmer and Bryant in the HOC demanding he is sanctioned
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
It is a statement of the obvious. With the 'breakaway republics' gone, a Russian puppet will never be elected. Unless they actually baldly state that they want Ukraine to be a non-democratic colony of Russia and its people denied a vote.
Yes: the problem with independence for the Rusophile regions is that whatever remains in more Ruso...sceptic?
On Chelsea I do not understand how Abramovich can sell in the present climate and restrictions and how the Premier League would sanction the sale
In truth Abramovich should have it confiscated but no doubt London lawyers will act for Abramovich interests to prevent it
I'm out of the loop, what's Abramovich supposed to have done. I know that there's a baseline dodginess to being a megarich oligarch from his cohort, but are there any specific allegations?
Contained in the Navalny documentary there was a specific allegation.
However, with a lot of these individuals it is difficult to separate out how much they are being shaken down using Mafia tactics i.e. pay up otherwise we know all your dodgy secrets / balconies are very slippery in the winter, and how much they are actually big Putin fanboys.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
Probably, plus some deal protecting the eastern provinces and Crimea - whether regional government or guarantees. The recognition of Zelensky was stressed by the Russians last week when they said they weren't seeking regime change
Apparently a cease-fire is also under discussion at the talks.
If you believe 'recognition of Zelensky' then I have a bridge to sell you. It's quite obvious they wanted to decapitate the government. Your comments suggest you really just do not understand the ghastliness of the imperialistic lawless thugs in Moscow. How can you believe a word these people say? A ceasefire will bide time for the sanctions to do their work on the Russian economy without a huge amount of more bloodshed. If the Russians then withdraw we can insist demand a demilitarised zone with the future of Donbass and Crimea resting with those regions. That doesn't mean an immediate referendum on joining Russia but first of all a public consultation with a range of options to discuss. And that process should be done without ANY Russian interference.
If Michael Clarke is correct, the Russians are just going to go "old school" and not worry about civilians and encircle cities for weeks and bomb the crap out of everybody.
NEWS: Department of Justice announces new taskforce, "KLEPTOCAPTURE," to track down wealth of sanctioned Russian oligarchs. Big new effort includes SDNY, IRS, FBI, Secret Service, US Marshals, etc. Aimed at ensuring US can seize $ of sanctioned Russian elite tied to Putin https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1499052393069260807
Hmm. USA giving itself the right to seize assets in Britain. What could go wrong?
NEWS: Department of Justice announces new taskforce, "KLEPTOCAPTURE," to track down wealth of sanctioned Russian oligarchs. Big new effort includes SDNY, IRS, FBI, Secret Service, US Marshals, etc. Aimed at ensuring US can seize $ of sanctioned Russian elite tied to Putin https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1499052393069260807
Hmm. USA giving itself the right to seize assets in Britain. What could go wrong?
Not really out of step with their already expansive view of tax and other money matters.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
Probably, plus some deal protecting the eastern provinces and Crimea - whether regional government or guarantees. The recognition of Zelensky was stressed by the Russians last week when they said they weren't seeking regime change
Apparently a cease-fire is also under discussion at the talks.
How can you believe a word these people say?
They literally said they were not invading, even after the invasion had already happened. I think they stilll are. Actions speak louder than words, so any minor 'rollback' on demanding overthrow of government etc must need massive piles of salt.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
It is a statement of the obvious. With the 'breakaway republics' gone, a Russian puppet will never be elected. Unless they actually baldly state that they want Ukraine to be a non-democratic colony of Russia and its people denied a vote.
Yes: the problem with independence for the Rusophile regions is that whatever remains in more Ruso...sceptic?
I wonder if we should tell the Russians they risk losing their security council seat at this rate?
A really good piece of info is this. Putin hasn't visited Ukraine since 2013. There is one person in the Kremlin who understands Ukraine but no-one listens to him.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
It is a statement of the obvious. With the 'breakaway republics' gone, a Russian puppet will never be elected. Unless they actually baldly state that they want Ukraine to be a non-democratic colony of Russia and its people denied a vote.
Yes: the problem with independence for the Rusophile regions is that whatever remains in more Ruso...sceptic?
I wonder if we should tell the Russians they risk losing their security council seat at this rate?
A really good piece of info is this. Putin hasn't visited Ukraine since 2013. There is one person in the Kremlin who understands Ukraine but no-one listens to him.
I don't think Russia should be allowed to keep a corner-shop concession. They must become a weapons-free state. They'll find out in a year or so that they should have thought of that in the first place!
NEWS: Department of Justice announces new taskforce, "KLEPTOCAPTURE," to track down wealth of sanctioned Russian oligarchs. Big new effort includes SDNY, IRS, FBI, Secret Service, US Marshals, etc. Aimed at ensuring US can seize $ of sanctioned Russian elite tied to Putin https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1499052393069260807
Hmm. USA giving itself the right to seize assets in Britain. What could go wrong?
Not really out of step with their already expansive view of tax and other money matters.
if you've ever had to do training on export controls you'll know that the definition is so broad that you can breach them without ever being in the USA or speaking to someone from the USA. if you have information which is export controlled (software designs of a dual use item for example) and was written in the USA and you show it to someone from another country without the export licence you can be breaching the rules. it can get very complicated.
I just read this on the BBC, in connection with the talks. To me the second paragraph sounds like quite a significant and surprising concession by Russia:
"Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov said earlier on Wednesday that Moscow remains committed to the "demilitarisation" of Ukraine and added there should be a list of specified weapons that can never be deployed on Ukrainian territory.
But he said that Vladimir Putin's regime recognised the Ukrainian people's right to chose their own leader and that Russia accepts Volodymyr Zelensky as the legitimate president."
Is the wily old fox Lavrov going increasingly off-message? Or is this just Russian trickery?
I am starting to wonder if at least for the adults in the Russian government a concession on NATO membership and agreement not to station weapons in Ukraine might be enough.
Probably, plus some deal protecting the eastern provinces and Crimea - whether regional government or guarantees. The recognition of Zelensky was stressed by the Russians last week when they said they weren't seeking regime change
Apparently a cease-fire is also under discussion at the talks.
How can you believe a word these people say?
They literally said they were not invading, even after the invasion had already happened. I think they stilll are. Actions speak louder than words, so any minor 'rollback' on demanding overthrow of government etc must need massive piles of salt.
but.... it's not an invasion... their troops and equipment accidentally crossed the border and started shooting, over and over and over.
On Chelsea I do not understand how Abramovich can sell in the present climate and restrictions and how the Premier League would sanction the sale
In truth Abramovich should have it confiscated but no doubt London lawyers will act for Abramovich interests to prevent it
I'm out of the loop, what's Abramovich supposed to have done. I know that there's a baseline dodginess to being a megarich oligarch from his cohort, but are there any specific allegations?
Contained in the Navalny documentary there was a specific allegation.
However, with a lot of these individuals it is difficult to separate out how much they are being shaken down using Mafia tactics i.e. pay up otherwise we know all your dodgy secrets / balconies are very slippery in the winter, and how much they are actually big Putin fanboys.
Is this documentary viewable in the UK? Just looked and it seems to be HBO, is that right?
Its not a documentary about Navalny, its Navalny documentary about Putin.
"According to U.S. officials speaking today, ~100,000 #Russia troops inside #Ukraine (~70% of its entire deployed force) is running out, or has already run out of fuel & food."
On Chelsea I do not understand how Abramovich can sell in the present climate and restrictions and how the Premier League would sanction the sale
In truth Abramovich should have it confiscated but no doubt London lawyers will act for Abramovich interests to prevent it
I'm out of the loop, what's Abramovich supposed to have done. I know that there's a baseline dodginess to being a megarich oligarch from his cohort, but are there any specific allegations?
Contained in the Navalny documentary there was a specific allegation.
However, with a lot of these individuals it is difficult to separate out how much they are being shaken down using Mafia tactics i.e. pay up otherwise we know all your dodgy secrets / balconies are very slippery in the winter, and how much they are actually big Putin fanboys.
Is this documentary viewable in the UK? Just looked and it seems to be HBO, is that right?
Abramovich took a 29.9% stake in Evraz on the 17th February. He's looking at a £2bn loss on that and is presumably facing margin calls. If he is part of Putin's inner circle, he's dumb as rocks.
"According to U.S. officials speaking today, ~100,000 #Russia troops inside #Ukraine (~70% of its entire deployed force) is running out, or has already run out of fuel & food."
I do wonder how much of that convoy may have been abandoned.
There have been numerous CCTV clips of Russian soldiers raiding supermarkets. As an invading force, you absolutely see individuals looking to enrich themselves, but taking time to go nicking some fruit / veg and some ciggies, suggests that perhaps they might be a caught short.
"The great nation of #Ukraine President #Zelenskyy Your honorable and almost unrivalled resistance uncovered the Satanic plots of enemies of mankind. Trust that the great nation of #Iran is standing by you,while admiring this heroic persistence ." Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
"In the current situation, I have therefore taken the decision to sell the Club"
"RA adds: "I will not be asking for any loans to be repaid."
"I have instructed my team to set up a charitable foundation where all net proceeds from the sale will be donated. The foundation will be for the benefit of all victims of the war in Ukraine."
£2-3bn will be a good start in terms of reparations.
Weasel words.
He’s transferring the loans to the buyer - they will pay him face value for them.
On Chelsea I do not understand how Abramovich can sell in the present climate and restrictions and how the Premier League would sanction the sale
In truth Abramovich should have it confiscated but no doubt London lawyers will act for Abramovich interests to prevent it
I'm out of the loop, what's Abramovich supposed to have done. I know that there's a baseline dodginess to being a megarich oligarch from his cohort, but are there any specific allegations?
Putin was (is?) a big shareholder in Abramovich’s business empire
"In the current situation, I have therefore taken the decision to sell the Club"
"RA adds: "I will not be asking for any loans to be repaid."
"I have instructed my team to set up a charitable foundation where all net proceeds from the sale will be donated. The foundation will be for the benefit of all victims of the war in Ukraine."
£2-3bn will be a good start in terms of reparations.
Weasel words.
He’s transferring the loans to the buyer - they will pay him face value for them.
Hmmm… how do you know he’s not converting them to equity?
"The great nation of #Ukraine President #Zelenskyy Your honorable and almost unrivalled resistance uncovered the Satanic plots of enemies of mankind. Trust that the great nation of #Iran is standing by you,while admiring this heroic persistence ." Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Wow...
Mixed messages..
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad @Ahmadinejad1956 · 40m The great nation of #Ukraine President #Zelenskyy Your honorable and almost unrivalled resistance uncovered the Satanic plots of enemies of mankind. Trust that the great nation of #Iran is standing by you,while admiring this heroic persistence . Mahmoud Ahmadinejad @Ahmadinejad1956 · Feb 28 Offering #Ukraine a membership in #NATO was only to pave the way for the implementation of the tripartite agreement between the United States, Russia, and China. They are redistributing the world among them. They never grant Ukraine any membership in NATO. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad @Ahmadinejad1956 · Feb 27 Following the Russia invasion of #Ukraine, the United States has offered a safe transfer of #VolodymyrZelenskyy and his family abroad, to which he has responded negatively so far. Doesn't this indicate coordination between #US and #Russia in implementing a pre-planned scenario?
"According to U.S. officials speaking today, ~100,000 #Russia troops inside #Ukraine (~70% of its entire deployed force) is running out, or has already run out of fuel & food."
I do wonder how much of that convoy may have been abandoned.
It'll be increasing by the day. No way they had enough food for this, or can easily resupply it given the territory.
On Chelsea I do not understand how Abramovich can sell in the present climate and restrictions and how the Premier League would sanction the sale
In truth Abramovich should have it confiscated but no doubt London lawyers will act for Abramovich interests to prevent it
Why should it be taken from him ? I get he’s Russian but he’s also an Israeli citizen too. Why should it be taken from him purely over Ukraine.
Confiscating these assets isn't smart in my opinion. Private property should not be confiscated from anyone without evidence that it has been acquired in an unlawful way. Otherwise you are violating fundamental principles on which our society and economy are built. By all means sanction people and ban them from entering the country, but you can't strip them of their assets without due process and justification. Otherwise, in the end, we all lose because once this has become normalised, it leads to ruin. Zimbabwe is a good case study.
Well yes, because even governments that are broadly sympathetic to Russia still want either to be independent states or to be able to choose their own non-puppet government. There must be a lot of Russia's friends who are thinking "we could be next".
Comments
Last five VI polling findings:
SF 33 34 32 33 34
FG 20 20 23 21 22
FF 17 25 17 15 24
Latest seat projections (excludes latest poll):
Sinn Féin 63 +26
Fine Gael 40 +6
Fianna Fáil 34 -3
Independents 8 -12
Social Democrats 5 -1
Green Party 3 -9
PBP/Solidarity 3 -2
Labour 3 -4
Aontú 1 nc
Right2Change 0 -
Parliament has 160 members, so 81 needed for a majority.
In some cases vehicles are so badly burnt they couldn't be identified (can't see anywhere near all the vehicles involved with the two roads of death NW of Kyiv etc), or were destroyed by drone strikes with the only footage being from the drones' screen, in which case they are not included.
Ukraine claims 211 tanks lost, and they have images of 54. Ukraine claims 850-1100 Russian vehicles lost, they have proof of at least 325. Ukraine claims 9 AA guns lost, 3 have proof etc.
Seeing as we have proof for over 20% of claimed losses, it is unlikely that dividing by a 5th is correct, maybe halving the claimed Ukrainian figures would be more suitable?
Launch pulled by the Russians.
'Money will not be returned: Force Majeure due to NATO aggression".
I wonder whether determination is by a court in London or Moscow
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-60587154
If you're using the solstices and the equinoxes then by definition you're using the length of the days as your definition, and so summer should be the season of your longest days with midsummer at the midpoint.
Same would apply if UK and Ukrainian positions were reversed
Meanwhile, I think in the run up to the next General Election this kind of thing is going to be a significant Achilles heel for the Conservative Party:
https://news.sky.com/story/russian-tory-donor-previously-married-to-putin-minister-recently-gave-conservatives-80-000-12555719
The Tory involvement with dirty Russian Putin money stinks. Absolutely stinks.
Sinn Fein is clearly on course for 60+ seats next time. Depending on how transfer friendly they could potentially be, I even wonder if they could manage a similar result that Fine Gael managed in 2011 i.e. around 45% of the seats on 36% of the vote (which could completely lock out both FG and FF).
More importantly, this deal might have been acceptable pre-invasion but it no longer is. Ukraine is a sovereign country entitles to freedom on its foreign policy and clearly needs defense partners to protect against Russian invasion in future. In addition, the war has shown Russia is a paper tiger and cannot subjugate Ukraine long term. As their leverage has evaporated, we should not reward them for their unprovoked, brutal war.
This money, due to force majeure circumstances that have arisen as a result of the aggressive policy of the West
May I link to the following Twitter account of Dr Mike Martin, who has been providing excellent insights thus far. Well worth a follow.
https://twitter.com/threshedthought?s=21
Add in the Independents to FG and FF and they have 82 seats and a majority
Another state with occupied territory which probably has little hope of actually joining as a result, never mind for any other reasons, but the more who are actively seeking it, and so can receive support and more protection (not that it helped with those occupied bits) as a result, the btter.
I can see the key outlines of a deal - no missiles stationed in Ukraine, no NATO, but all troops out, full recognition of the state and Zelenskiy as Lavrov has already hinted at, and retention of other military, and-or defensive infrastructure, including anything else.
https://twitter.com/JStein_WaPo/status/1499052393069260807
I do wonder if the U.K., EU. EEA, and EFTA light to get their heads together around some form of neo-EFTA based on the “British model” for some of the outlying states which we can all sit in? Layer in some of the recent non-EU European defence construct proposals working with the grain of NATO too.
https://www.ft.com/content/cfcfb51f-be3b-4eae-a922-948e89e12610
Well this is interesting:
@tomburgis - author of Kleptopia - how dirty money is conquering the world - has just won the defamation action brought against him by one of the companies that features in his rather gripping investigation:
https://twitter.com/BBCDomC/status/1499047525898149891
Apparently a cease-fire is also under discussion at the talks.
Let's hope more civilians don't have to die first though, because for most people the agony and the missile strikes are still going on.
In truth Abramovich should have it confiscated but no doubt London lawyers will act for Abramovich interests to prevent it
Thanks for the answer though. I think it's instructive to consider stark issues like this in probability terms to understand the value we instinctively place on things.
I'm finding it hard to decide on my number, but it's definitely higher than yours. Maybe even as high as 25%.
I don't have much to lose though. I'm going to ask my nephew (my only nibling and closest I have to offspring) with his whole adult life ahead of him what he thinks of my gamble on his future over Ukraine.
"In the current situation, I have therefore taken the decision to sell the Club"
"RA adds: "I will not be asking for any loans to be repaid."
"I have instructed my team to set up a charitable foundation where all net proceeds from the sale will be donated. The foundation will be for the benefit of all victims of the war in Ukraine."
£2-3bn will be a good start in terms of reparations.
From the past RCS, TSE and David Herdson for all his Saturday headers all stand out.
Appologies to any not mentioned from years flown bye.
Not the remotest chance.
The only stable coalition on those figures would be SF + FF, on the assumption that FF are much more likely to form a coalition with SF than FG.
(actually I'm sanguine on MP pay increases, but expenses should be much reduced as a result)
However, with a lot of these individuals it is difficult to separate out how much they are being shaken down using Mafia tactics i.e. pay up otherwise we know all your dodgy secrets / balconies are very slippery in the winter, and how much they are actually big Putin fanboys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IWIOgsoKfDk
A really good piece of info is this. Putin hasn't visited Ukraine since 2013. There is one person in the Kremlin who understands Ukraine but no-one listens to him.
Seizing assets in another country, not surprising
Putin's palace
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipAnwilMncI
"According to U.S. officials speaking today, ~100,000 #Russia troops inside #Ukraine (~70% of its entire deployed force) is running out, or has already run out of fuel & food."
If he is part of Putin's inner circle, he's dumb as rocks.
Is this a local issue?
"The great nation of #Ukraine
President #Zelenskyy
Your honorable and almost unrivalled resistance uncovered the Satanic plots of enemies of mankind.
Trust that the great nation of #Iran is standing by you,while admiring this heroic persistence ."
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
Wow...
He’s transferring the loans to the buyer - they will pay him face value for them.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
@Ahmadinejad1956
·
40m
The great nation of #Ukraine
President #Zelenskyy
Your honorable and almost unrivalled resistance uncovered the Satanic plots of enemies of mankind.
Trust that the great nation of #Iran is standing by you,while admiring this heroic persistence .
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
@Ahmadinejad1956
·
Feb 28
Offering #Ukraine a membership in #NATO was only to pave the way for the implementation of the tripartite agreement between the United States, Russia, and China. They are redistributing the world among them. They never grant Ukraine any membership in NATO.
Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
@Ahmadinejad1956
·
Feb 27
Following the Russia invasion of #Ukraine, the United States has offered a safe transfer of #VolodymyrZelenskyy and his family abroad, to which he has responded negatively so far.
Doesn't this indicate coordination between #US and #Russia in implementing a pre-planned scenario?